Tony's Market Analysis

Martin Armstrong Real Estate - The Global View

2012-01-25T07:45:00.003-05:00

Real Estate The Global View By Martin Armstrong and Petra Gajdosikova

Data Mining QQQ's

2012-01-22T18:06:00.004-05:00

This is another post on my Data Mining project. What it shows here is there is statistical weakness following around the 20th of January for about 5-6 days. The computer puts it at 6 days with the highest return per trade. Again as you can see 09 did not turn out that way but we were in the throws of a giant bear market rally. Use caution, but statistics can show inherent patterns that occur year after year. I would guess that we will see higher prices after a small correction.

Martin Armstrong Gold & The Near Term

2012-01-21T17:44:00.002-05:00

Martin Armstrong's Gold & The Near Term

Martin Armstrong's The Evolution Of The US Dollar

2012-01-19T09:05:00.001-05:00

The Evolution of The US Dollar

Martin Armstrong's When Fiat Was The Solution, The Panic Of 1789

2012-01-05T22:26:00.002-05:00

Martin Armstrong's When Fiat Was The Solution, The Panic Of 1789

Years Ending in 2

2012-01-03T11:50:00.006-05:00

Below is the 2012 market map. This is a correlation of the decennial cycle with years ending in 2. The map is shown with percentages as the historical data is averaged. Last years years ending in 1 was a key to some turns especially around May 2011. This is a gauge and not an exact prediction of 2012. The more things change the more they stay the same.

Here is the breakout we are currently experiencing

Martin Armstrongs Latest

2012-01-02T10:30:00.002-05:00

The Coming Financial Border Controls

The 2011 Year End OutLook

Martin Armstrong's Ron Paul, Our Last Hope

2011-12-19T17:25:00.002-05:00

Ron Paul- Our Last Hope

Martin Armstrong's What's Up With Gold?

2011-12-16T08:24:00.002-05:00

Martin Armstrong's What's Up With Gold?

Data Mining Project

2011-12-13T17:56:00.008-05:00

I've decided to try and dedicate some more time to the Blog and give readers some information they can use on a periodic basis. My experiment is derived similar to my _YearsEndingIn project which I will give an update on before the end of the year. If you are a first time reader make sure you scroll back through previous posts and see the 2011 prediction using a computer generated model. My opinion is it has had some uncanny similarities to what actually transpired. The idea here is money managers repeat the same trades over and over. The _YearsEndingIn project takes that but also factors in the decennial cycle. My hope is a couple times a month to have reasonably reliable trades that I will post ahead of time. The timing module actually uses trading days in the year so it factors out weekends and holidays. This proprietary formula looks for the best setups year end and year out both long and short. I can run it on any futures contract or stock or ETF. This is simply statistical in nature and uses no indicators or setups other than the trading day of the year to get in and out. Trades are entered on the open and exited on the open after a predefined variable amount of days. My hope is to have a couple of these types of historical trade setups a month that you can follow from home.
Trades on ETFs or stocks are shown as buying or selling 100 shares but mainly what I'm looking for is percentage move. Options could be used in place of outright purchase to increase leverage also.
This particular trade is with Gold. Although Gold is in a pullback right now historically it moves up on the 246th trading day of the year. That is a couple days before the Christmas break and you would sell 5 trading days later which would be Jan 3 2012 on the open. The dates vary slightly year to year but you can count off the trading days excluding weekend and holidays or have a computer determine it for you. This trade amazingly has worked every year since 2006 and returns an average of 2.9%. If the GLD was trading at 160 on the 22nd and we received 2.9% it would be around a $4.5 dollar move. Gold Futures on the big contract at 1600 would be around 45 pts. Let's see what happens this year.
This is the type of data mining that can add some statistical evidence to trading. If you use indicators you can look for an entry around that time frame.

Martin Armstrong's America's Unconstitutional Police State

2011-12-09T19:02:00.001-05:00

Martin Armstrong's American Police State

Martin Armstrong's MF Global "Trading With Other Peoples Money"

2011-12-09T14:11:00.001-05:00

Martin Armstrong's MF Global Trading With Other Peoples Money

Martin Armstrong's Coordinated Central Bank Intervention

2011-12-01T11:14:00.003-05:00

Copyright Martin Armstrong All Rights Reserved November 30th, 2011
Coordinated Central Bank Intervention
It is clear that the Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe is becoming really serious in order to warrant such a public show of trying to flood the system with money. All our political sources in Germany have confirmed that if it is a choice between the failure of the Euro and inflation, there will be no question that the latter will prevail. Today’s actions confirm that information.
Even the Central Bank of Canada will reduce the cost of emergency borrowing of U.S. dollars. The People's Bank of China also announced that it would cut reserve requirements for banks. This is a global effort to reduce the cost of money and inflate the world economy out of crisis that is devaluating money causing even tangible assets to rise (including shares). Again, instead of Europe reforming the ECB to function like the Fed with an elastic money supply, once again they have to drag the entire world into the operation. While some see this as a positive development that was designed to address the inability of the ECB interbank funding pressures to accommodate European banks, still this is by no means solving the Sovereign Debt Crisis that is becoming a global issue. The greatest danger here is still the failure to directly address the Sovereign Debt Crisis. This can easily be seen as a failure of the entire system. Once again, there is no substance and this is a dangerous coordinated multi-nation move that only confirms the deepening crisis faced by the global economy as a whole.

James brought this to my attention from 2008
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Press Release
This is not part of Martin's articles but a regular press release to the public
Release Date: September 18, 2008
For release at 3:00 a.m. EDT

Today, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank are announcing coordinated measures designed to address the continued elevated pressures in U.S. dollar short-term funding markets. These measures, together with other actions taken in the last few days by individual central banks, are designed to improve the liquidity conditions in global financial markets. The central banks continue to work together closely and will take appropriate steps to address the ongoing pressures.

Federal Reserve Actions

The Federal Open Market Committee has authorized a $180 billion expansion of its temporary reciprocal currency arrangements (swap lines). This increased capacity will be available to provide dollar funding for both term and overnight liquidity operations by the other central banks.

The FOMC has authorized increases in the existing swap lines with the ECB and the Swiss National Bank. These larger facilities will now support the provision of U.S. dollar liquidity in amounts of up to $110 billion by the ECB, an increase of $55 billion, and up to $27 billion by the Swiss National Bank, an increase of $15 billion.

In addition, new swap facilities have been authorized with the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada. These facilities will support the provision of U.S. dollar liquidity in amounts of up to $60 billion by the Bank of Japan, $40 billion by the Bank of England, and $10 billion by the Bank of Canada.

All of these reciprocal currency arrangements have been authorized through January 30, 2009.

Martin Armstrong Fed vs ECB

2011-11-17T15:33:00.001-05:00

Martin Armstrong's The Federal Reserve vs. The ECB

Martin Armstrong's "Financial Armegeddon"

2011-11-05T17:56:00.002-04:00

Martin Armstrong's "Finanical Armageddon"

Martin Armstrong's "Is The Zurich Alleged Super Entity Real"

2011-10-23T20:05:00.002-04:00

Is The Zurich Alleged Super Entity Real

Martin Armstrong's Gold and Silver

2011-10-15T21:54:00.000-04:00

Gold and Silver

Martin Armstrong Live In December

2011-10-03T18:33:00.002-04:00

Martin's Economic World Conference

Martin Armstrong The Dollar and It's Reserve Status

2011-10-03T18:31:00.001-04:00

The Dollar and It's Reserve Currency Status

Martin Armstrong

2011-10-03T18:29:00.001-04:00

The Immediate Outlook

09-18-2011

2011-09-18T20:00:00.006-04:00

I haven't done a post for a while but in fact really nothing has changed from my previous last few posts. The market map for 2011 has been posted several times but I wanted to show another version as these next few weeks could turn to the downside even more. This first pic is the same average years ending in 1 but I decided to remove 2001 due to the market closing and 9/11 event. Still even if you look at 2001 the bearish movement in trend started before the 9/11 attacks. Any way the map is below and shows a potential downturn this week even though last week was very bullish. Disregard the candle colors and look more to the sma's red(5) and blue(20) for direction. Again this is "history" and only what occurs on average.

As for Gold Futures it's kind of up in the air. Martin has not figured we are in a "phase transition" higher but I am not so sure. Following what Silver Futures did prior to the run up to 50.00 I think Gold is making a similar breakout. I have circled the area on the Silver chart where I believe we might be. Gold could back test the support line before moving higher or something totally different, but this is what I am sort of expecting.

As for me I continue to use my futures systems and in fact we had a great August as volatility has increased. I did a webinar regarding the recent success that was taped and anyone may view it if you log in. The link for that webinar is here . The website to the futures business is www.newfuturestrends.com.

Best of luck trading this week.