Tony's Market Analysis

Martin Armstrong Flash Crash

2012-03-03T08:30:00.002-05:00

Martin Armstrong

2012-02-26T11:56:00.000-05:00

The 13 Year Curse

Martin Armstrong

2012-02-24T16:33:00.000-05:00

Copyright Martin Armstrong All Rights Reserved February 24th, 2012

Are the Capital Flows Shifting Creating Bull Markets in USA?

The lift in gold finally breaking above the December high as well as the strength in the Dow is starting to indicate that the capital flows are indeed shifting. Gold still has to get through the November high at $1807.30, but technical resistance stands at $1872 and nothing has changed on the Sovereign Debt Crisis suggesting that the real meltdown when it hits the USA is not likely until after 2015.75. The major
high in gold still appears in the $5,000 level minimum but not until 2017. The cycles near-term are still mixed showing a choppy trend oscillating every two months into September where the big turning point lies for this year. The worse possible pattern would be to exceed last year’s high, fail, and then we could crash, rebuild support, and then rally into 2017. Volatility is very high building year after year. This is just not going to be smooth sailing trend for most markets.
Today, we need a closing to remain above the December high of 1769.40. Next week, 1779 will be a pivot point so this can become resistance and support. Directional Changes were due here in February giving us this move to the upside, but another is due in March. These back-to-back Directional Changes are warning about volatility, confusion, and choppy markets.
Likewise, the Dow Jones Industrials have been pressing higher and the low interest rates are starting to cause real capital to seek high yielding stocks. We need to see the Dow close February ABOVE 12929 to suggest further upside into March. The Monthly Bullish to watch at 12842 and 13340. These are the main number to watch for any breakout to the upside. Only a closing BELOW 11820 would signal a retest of support ahead.
Europe is unlikely to solve any problems and the US Presidential elections have brought any hope of reform to a screeching halt. Nobody will ever do anything important at this time so the global trends in motion are simply on autopilot. There is nothing to suggest that the meltdown will be immediate. This Sovereign Debt Crisis has been brewing since 1955. These things typically unfold from the peripheral economies moving backward into the core economy. This is usually the pattern because capital within the core economy was attracted outward. During the Great Depression, the Sovereign Debt Crisis was so bad because the banks sold the debt in small denominations to the general public. Foreign debt was listed on the New York Stock Exchange and collapsed.
We are always looking a capital shifts between sectors. The rise in the Dow compared to world indices is suggesting a similar shift is starting in capital flows that took place in 1927. We can see that toward the tail-end of the bull market in 1929, ONLY then did investment in stocks exceed debt. The smart money begins to smell a rat. This causes capital to shift into all tangible investments and that includes both gold and equities

Complete article here

Martin Armstrong

2012-02-23T15:15:00.001-05:00

The British Pound The Decline and Fall

02/22/2012

2012-02-22T12:54:00.007-05:00

This is the average slope of the Decennial cycle in the DOW30 for years ending in 2. It shows a bullish bias until early March with a recovery later in the year. These patterns are very hit and miss but does show statistical bias in the averages.
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This Bond pattern is shown with the @US continuous contract for the 30 yr Bond. This shows a sweet spot we are currently in for possible bullish bias. I have included the recent results below. This is a 5 day hold.

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Here is the recent GLD trade. This could also be played in the GC contract or equivalent. Gold has been a bit hit or miss lately but this one worked out nice catching yesterdays large move to the upside. This also is a 5 trading day hold and no other criteria is used other than long on the 28th trading day of the year.

Martin Armstrong Movie Trailer

2012-02-12T11:00:00.000-05:00

http://www.martinarmstrong-movie.com/

Martin Armstrong's "Technical Analysis Is Sometimes Fraud"

2012-01-30T08:37:00.003-05:00

Martin Armstrong's "Technical Analysis Is Sometimes Fraud"

Martin Armstrong Real Estate - The Global View

2012-01-25T07:45:00.003-05:00

Real Estate The Global View By Martin Armstrong and Petra Gajdosikova

Data Mining QQQ's

2012-01-22T18:06:00.004-05:00

This is another post on my Data Mining project. What it shows here is there is statistical weakness following around the 20th of January for about 5-6 days. The computer puts it at 6 days with the highest return per trade. Again as you can see 09 did not turn out that way but we were in the throws of a giant bear market rally. Use caution, but statistics can show inherent patterns that occur year after year. I would guess that we will see higher prices after a small correction.

Martin Armstrong Gold & The Near Term

2012-01-21T17:44:00.002-05:00

Martin Armstrong's Gold & The Near Term

Martin Armstrong's The Evolution Of The US Dollar

2012-01-19T09:05:00.001-05:00

The Evolution of The US Dollar

Martin Armstrong's When Fiat Was The Solution, The Panic Of 1789

2012-01-05T22:26:00.002-05:00

Martin Armstrong's When Fiat Was The Solution, The Panic Of 1789

Years Ending in 2

2012-01-03T11:50:00.006-05:00

Below is the 2012 market map. This is a correlation of the decennial cycle with years ending in 2. The map is shown with percentages as the historical data is averaged. Last years years ending in 1 was a key to some turns especially around May 2011. This is a gauge and not an exact prediction of 2012. The more things change the more they stay the same.

Here is the breakout we are currently experiencing

Martin Armstrongs Latest

2012-01-02T10:30:00.002-05:00

The Coming Financial Border Controls

The 2011 Year End OutLook

Martin Armstrong's Ron Paul, Our Last Hope

2011-12-19T17:25:00.002-05:00

Ron Paul- Our Last Hope

Martin Armstrong's What's Up With Gold?

2011-12-16T08:24:00.002-05:00

Martin Armstrong's What's Up With Gold?

Data Mining Project

2011-12-13T17:56:00.008-05:00

I've decided to try and dedicate some more time to the Blog and give readers some information they can use on a periodic basis. My experiment is derived similar to my _YearsEndingIn project which I will give an update on before the end of the year. If you are a first time reader make sure you scroll back through previous posts and see the 2011 prediction using a computer generated model. My opinion is it has had some uncanny similarities to what actually transpired. The idea here is money managers repeat the same trades over and over. The _YearsEndingIn project takes that but also factors in the decennial cycle. My hope is a couple times a month to have reasonably reliable trades that I will post ahead of time. The timing module actually uses trading days in the year so it factors out weekends and holidays. This proprietary formula looks for the best setups year end and year out both long and short. I can run it on any futures contract or stock or ETF. This is simply statistical in nature and uses no indicators or setups other than the trading day of the year to get in and out. Trades are entered on the open and exited on the open after a predefined variable amount of days. My hope is to have a couple of these types of historical trade setups a month that you can follow from home.
Trades on ETFs or stocks are shown as buying or selling 100 shares but mainly what I'm looking for is percentage move. Options could be used in place of outright purchase to increase leverage also.
This particular trade is with Gold. Although Gold is in a pullback right now historically it moves up on the 246th trading day of the year. That is a couple days before the Christmas break and you would sell 5 trading days later which would be Jan 3 2012 on the open. The dates vary slightly year to year but you can count off the trading days excluding weekend and holidays or have a computer determine it for you. This trade amazingly has worked every year since 2006 and returns an average of 2.9%. If the GLD was trading at 160 on the 22nd and we received 2.9% it would be around a $4.5 dollar move. Gold Futures on the big contract at 1600 would be around 45 pts. Let's see what happens this year.
This is the type of data mining that can add some statistical evidence to trading. If you use indicators you can look for an entry around that time frame.

Martin Armstrong's America's Unconstitutional Police State

2011-12-09T19:02:00.001-05:00

Martin Armstrong's American Police State

Martin Armstrong's MF Global "Trading With Other Peoples Money"

2011-12-09T14:11:00.001-05:00

Martin Armstrong's MF Global Trading With Other Peoples Money

Martin Armstrong's Coordinated Central Bank Intervention

2011-12-01T11:14:00.003-05:00

Copyright Martin Armstrong All Rights Reserved November 30th, 2011
Coordinated Central Bank Intervention
It is clear that the Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe is becoming really serious in order to warrant such a public show of trying to flood the system with money. All our political sources in Germany have confirmed that if it is a choice between the failure of the Euro and inflation, there will be no question that the latter will prevail. Today’s actions confirm that information.
Even the Central Bank of Canada will reduce the cost of emergency borrowing of U.S. dollars. The People's Bank of China also announced that it would cut reserve requirements for banks. This is a global effort to reduce the cost of money and inflate the world economy out of crisis that is devaluating money causing even tangible assets to rise (including shares). Again, instead of Europe reforming the ECB to function like the Fed with an elastic money supply, once again they have to drag the entire world into the operation. While some see this as a positive development that was designed to address the inability of the ECB interbank funding pressures to accommodate European banks, still this is by no means solving the Sovereign Debt Crisis that is becoming a global issue. The greatest danger here is still the failure to directly address the Sovereign Debt Crisis. This can easily be seen as a failure of the entire system. Once again, there is no substance and this is a dangerous coordinated multi-nation move that only confirms the deepening crisis faced by the global economy as a whole.

James brought this to my attention from 2008
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Press Release
This is not part of Martin's articles but a regular press release to the public
Release Date: September 18, 2008
For release at 3:00 a.m. EDT

Today, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank are announcing coordinated measures designed to address the continued elevated pressures in U.S. dollar short-term funding markets. These measures, together with other actions taken in the last few days by individual central banks, are designed to improve the liquidity conditions in global financial markets. The central banks continue to work together closely and will take appropriate steps to address the ongoing pressures.

Federal Reserve Actions

The Federal Open Market Committee has authorized a $180 billion expansion of its temporary reciprocal currency arrangements (swap lines). This increased capacity will be available to provide dollar funding for both term and overnight liquidity operations by the other central banks.

The FOMC has authorized increases in the existing swap lines with the ECB and the Swiss National Bank. These larger facilities will now support the provision of U.S. dollar liquidity in amounts of up to $110 billion by the ECB, an increase of $55 billion, and up to $27 billion by the Swiss National Bank, an increase of $15 billion.

In addition, new swap facilities have been authorized with the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada. These facilities will support the provision of U.S. dollar liquidity in amounts of up to $60 billion by the Bank of Japan, $40 billion by the Bank of England, and $10 billion by the Bank of Canada.

All of these reciprocal currency arrangements have been authorized through January 30, 2009.