Topper's Blog

Here We Go Again

TopperShutt — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 17:47:00 GMT

Tuesday February 8, 2010

Here we go Again !

As of this writing, early Monday afternoon, it looks like the Metro Area will be blasted by yet another coastal storm Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. The good news: all of the snow should be relatively dry. The bad news: winds will be strong Wednesday afternoon and evening blowing and drifting the snow. The bull's eye will be north and east of Town. Six to twelve inches is a reasonable estimate at his point in time and that covers everyone from Charles and St. Mary's County to the north and west. In the bull's eye, however we could see ten to sixteen inches and near blizzard conditions Wednesday afternoon in places like Howard County and northeast Maryland. Travel will be nearly impossible between Washington and Philadelphia Wednesday. Long range guidance keeps us cold for the next seven to ten days. While I am worried about heavy snow, drifting snow and more power outages with this storm I am increasingly concerned in the long term as to how fast this snow melts. After the blizzard of '96, btw we also had a trailing storm late in the week, and the blizzard of '03 the Metro Area experienced record flooding. Let's get through the frozen aspect of the storm first.

Things to do before 2 PM Thursday:

- Get prescriptions filled

- Get gas for the car/tractor/generator/snow blower

- Get enough provisions for the house for 3 - 5 days

- Check flashlight batteries

Wow !

TopperShutt — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 03:30:00 GMT

What a storm ! The Super Storm last Friday and Saturday shattered all kinds of records and put us in some rarified air in terms of snowiest winters. As of this writing, Saturday night, the storm ranks number four at National/Downtown with 17.8”. The storm is behind the all time Knickbocker Storm which dumped 28” of snow Downtown. Number two dumped 20.5” back in 1899. By the way the winter of 1898 – 1899 was not only snowy but very cold. Ice flowed from the Mississippi River into the Gulf of Mexico. Coming in at number three is the Presidents Day Blizzard in 1979. You might remember farmers were in Town protesting and ended up helping us clear the streets in downtown Washington. The storm is the all time largest snowfall at Dulles and BWI. Dulles was buried under 32.4” of snow. Now, this reading must be verified but even if a few inches are taken away it would still be their biggest single storm in their history. The airport opened in 1962. The old record was established in the 1996 blizzard when Dulles received 24.5” BWI received 26” of snow with the storm replacing the record set in the 2003 blizzard. A general 20” – 30” snowfall fell over the Metro area. Some areas in the panhandle of West Virginia clocked in with 32” – 44” ! Paw Paw, WV had 44” !

Downtown we are currently at number three all time for snowiest winters. National has recorded 45.1” which is less than an inch behind number two set in 1995-1996. We will more than likely pass that mark. In fact we have a chance of some snow tomorrow night and early Wednesday. The number one snowiest winter is that cold winter of 1898 – 1899 with 54.4”. It’s not out of the realm of possibility of reaching that mark before this crazy winter ends. I can’t emphasize enough how it is remarkable to have two top ten storms in the same winter !

Another Historic Storm

TopperShutt — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 00:25:00 GMT

It’s hard to believe but it looks like our second historic storm of the season is on the way for Friday and Saturday. What are the chances of two top ten storms in the same winter ? I don’t know but they are slim to none. It’s also the second storm of the season to rate a “10” on the Bread-O-Meter ! Get ready...

You have until noon to get some things done...

- Refill your prescriptions

- Refuel your car (it adds weight and gives you options)

- Mark your downspouts (you’ll need to dig them out)

- Get supplies for 3 – 5 days...food, batteries etc

- Charge cell phone / Laptop

Snow will break out Friday morning and become steadier and heavier in the afternoon with 2” – 4” by evening. Travel will be impossible Friday night as the winds pick up and the heaviest snow falls. Twelve to eighteen inches is possible overnight Friday alone. Here’s the snow potential breakdown.

- Noon – Friday 6 PM: 2” – 4”

- 6 PM – Midnight Saturday 6” – 10 “

- Midnight - 6 AM Saturday 6” – 8”

- 6 AM – Noon Saturday 2” – 4”

- Noon – 6 PM Saturday 1” – 2”

TOTAL: 17” – 28”

Top Ten Snowstorms:

1) 28.0" 1/27-28 1922 (Knickerbocker)

2) 20.5" 2/11-13 1899

3) 18.7" 2/18-19 1979 (President's Day)

4) 17.1" 1/6-8 1996 (Blizzard '96)

5) 16.7" 2/15-18 2003

6) 16.6" 2/11-12 1983

7) 16.4" 12/19 - 12/20 2009

8) 14.4" 2/15-16 1958

9) 14.4" 2/7 1936

10)14.3" 2/16-18 1900

Snowiest Winters: National 27.3” to date (2/4/10)

1898-1899 54.4"

1995-1996 46.0"

1921-1922 42.5"

1891-1892 41.7"

1904-1905 41.0"

1957-1958 40.4"

2002-2003 40.4

1960-1961 40.3

1910-1911 39.8"

1978-1979 37.7"

One is more than Three

TopperShutt — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 12:37:00 GMT

Not including Tuesday’s little storm we have had more snow this winter season than we have in the past three winters combined. Officially at National there has been twenty four inches of snow this winter; officially 16.6” in December and 7.4” in January. I know some of you are shaking your heads if you live in the suburbs. The northern and western suburbs have received between thirty five and forty inches of snow so far this winter. Now, back to my point. If you add up the total seasonal snows for the previous three winters, at National, it only comes to a little under twenty two inches. The past six winters have all recorded below average snowfall. In fact in only three of the six winters, 2003 – 2004, 2004 – 2005, and 2005 – 2006 did we make it to double digit seasonal totals.

We average around eighteen inches Downtown and about twenty three inches in our northern and western suburbs.

On this date in 1998 a massive Nor-Easter tracked from Florida to the coast of Hatteras, North Carolina. In an average winter that storm would have produced a huge snowfall for us but not that winter. In fact we ended up tied with the least amount of snow on record with a paltry tenth of an inch. Tornadoes were reported in south Florida with wind gusts of 104 mph in Miami. The storm dumped over two inches of rain in the Metro area with 50 – 70 mph on our coast. Louisville, Kentucky was buried under 21” of snow while Garrett County received two feet. This was our worst coastal storm since March of 1962.

Groundhog Day

TopperShutt — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 04:30:00 GMT

Every February 2^nd a group of bearded men reach in a cage and pull out a groundhog. The two most famous or infamous are Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania and Beauregard Lee in Georgia. The lore is that if he sees his shadow he gets scared and runs back into his lair preparing for six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t see his shadow then he remains out and declares winter over. This February marks the 124th year of this rather bizarre tradition. He has declared spring only 14 times. He has not seen his shadow only thirteen percent of the time. He saw his shadow again and declared six more weeks of winter. I guess the television lights don’t count.

The Roman’s celebrated a similar day also in early February. There are a lot of pagan ties to this day and tradition. February’s Latin derivatives imply February to be a month for purification. In England this day was called Candlemas Day. This day was celebrated by a parade of candles. This day marked the mid point between the Winter Solstice and the Spring Equinox. Much like Phil’s idea of forecasting if the weather were nice on that day then more winter was ahead but if the weather were bad then here comes spring. Later the tradition in England involved hedgehogs. Hedgehogs were chosen because they are insectivores. If the insects were out then the hedgehogs were out and winter was over. Since we have no hedgehogs we use groundhogs (ground squirrel). So let’s get this straight...we use the wrong animal for the wrong thing for a pagan holiday. In fact the groundhog hibernates and would not be out and about anyway. Sometimes Phil bites his handler. Can you blame him ?