Topper's Blog

Is It Reasonable..Part II

TopperShutt — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 17:05:00 GMT

I had a great algebra and trig teacher my freshman year in high school. Mr. Porter taught us to ask ourselves “is my answer reasonable?” Sometimes it was as simple as determining if the answer should be negative or positive. You can just change one variable radically to check if your answer is at least in the ballpark. Hopefully I have passed this concept onto my daughters as well.

Last Friday I received twenty eight phone books, again. (This is the third year in a row.) The past two years I wondered why it did not occur to the person delivering the, oh I don’t know, twelfth book to ask himself/herself "is this reasonable?" Well, this year I was home when the mail courier was dropping them by my front door, After the fourth 'wump' I went out to see what was going on. I found two stacks of phone books three feet with another bundle in the arms of the mailperson. I asked her to take the phone books back. She refused. I offered to load them back into her truck. She refused. My regular courier was on vacation or this would have never happened. I picked up one bundle of the books and read the typed address and said does my house look like the chemistry building at Howard University. She still refused to take them back. (In her defense while you have the right to refuse mail you cannot refuse bulk mail.) She refused to acknowledge that no one has used a yellow pages book in the last ten years let alone two dozen of them !

I provide radio forecasts for WHUR, 96.3 FM and have an ISDN line at my house provided by Howard University. This phone line allows me to broadcast my forecasts in high quality back to WHUR. Many of these books were intended for various buildings around the Howard University Campus. It just strikes me as funny and somewhat sad that the delivery person never questioned his actions. If he had just stopped and said to himself “is this reasonable ? I am at a residence and dropping off books for a university ?” What’s the moral of this story ? Just think. Thinking leads to great ideas that increases efficiency and can also lead to promotions. You might even find that the day goes by faster.

The Fourth and Storms

TopperShutt — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 14:26:00 GMT

We should be ok tomorrow night for the big celebration on the Mall. There is a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms but they should be out of the Metro Area by 9:00 PM. The fireworks are scheduled for 9:00 PM. If someone were to ask me in January what the forecast would be for July fourth I would say highs near ninety with late thunderstorms. Last year we had a few storms but in 2007 the storms were intense with some tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings. Some of the tents set up by fireworks gazers were blown over. Three years ago more tents were blown down and trees were even uprooted. In 2005, guess what, we had more evening storms. In 2004 National recorded record daily rainfall with well over an inch of rain. The fireworks display was delayed but was completed. In 2003 we had the heat and humidity but no storms. The highs topped ninety degrees. In 2002 storms were not the problem, the heat was. We had an excessive heat warning with National hitting ninety nine and Dulles topping out at ninety seven. In 2001 more storms delayed the fireworks. July fourth in 2000 was pretty nice with no storms and highs in the eighties. In 1999 we had another excessive heat warning with highs in the upper nineties. Highs held in the eighties in 1998 with only a few showers. Hot but dry was the rule in 1997. We would love to have the weather of 1996 when we were dry with highs only in the seventies ! The storms ended by evening in 1995 with highs holding in the eighties. Storms, heat and fireworks are pretty much par for the course. This year at least no heat.

Autism Speaks

TopperShutt — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 11:42:00 GMT

I know tomorrow is the Fourth of July and we all will be running around like crazy people but I’d sure like to see you at the Potomac 5K. The monies raise will go to autism research. An autistic child is born once in every one hundred fifty births, with an even higher rate among boys. I bet if you think for a minute, for most of us much less time is needed, you can think of someone who is autistic or who has an autistic child.

Try to arrive by 7:30 AM at the Potomac Library located essentially at the intersection of River Road and Falls Road. It’s on the east side of River Road. (If you are coming toward Potomac on River Road west bound turn right at Falls and the Library is on your right. Professional trainer Fred Foster will warm everyone up and I’ll be there to cheer folks on. No I am not running. The 5K starts at 8:00 AM and if you don’t feel like running there is a 1K walk that starts at 8:05 AM. It’s a great way to start your holiday weekend and help make a difference. Go to their website and sign up ! Potomac5k.org See you there.

July Almanac

TopperShutt — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:15:00 GMT

We are entering July on a pleasant note with highs a bit below average. Our average high on July first is eighty seven with an average low of seventy. The range does not change much by the end of the month. The average high at National on the thirty first is eighty nine with a low of seventy two. The average high begins to go down in early August. The high of eighty nine with a low of seventy two are the highest averages all summer. This high average range statistically runs from mid July through early August. Over the course of this month we average thirteen days with highs ninety degrees or higher. The record for the most days in the nineties is twenty four set in 1993. Five of the hottest eight Julys occurred in the decade of the nineties. The hottest day on record in July is 106 set on July twentieth 1930. We have never recorded a temperature in the forties, Downtown or at National in the month of July. We average nearly four inches of rain for the month but that can be a bit deceiving. We are talking about showers and thunderstorms here. Even though that is a high monthly average rainfall our yards turn brown and go dormant in July. So far it has been pretty quiet in the tropics. July on average only yields six percent of the season's tropical storms and hurricanes. Twenty nine percent on average develop in August with thirty six percent in September. On an even hotter note our record for consecutive ninety five or higher degree days is eight in 1987 and again in 1993.

Humidity can be Good

TopperShutt — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 15:30:00 GMT

I have watched and listened to a lot of baseball games. There is one misconception that I hear all too frequently. “It’s very humid out here tonight so the ball won't be carrying as far." Actually dry air has a greater molecular weight and is denser than moist air. Water has a lower molecular weight than dry air. (28 kg/kmol for dry air vs. 18 for water vapor.) On hot and humid evenings the ball will carry farther than if it were less humid and more comfortable. The same theory holds for golf balls. I love playing golf when it is hot and humid because the ball travels farther and my back is nice and loose. This may all seem a bit counterintuitive but it’s true. The golf ball and baseball will travel farther at higher altitudes, but this more intuitive. In fact if you are playing golf at an altitude of about one mile you can just about take off a full club or ten percent of the distance. The next time you hear someone say it's humid so the ball won't travel as far you'll know that is incorrect and why. Maybe you could impress a client or a son or daughter with your explanation over a hot dog.

We started the week with low humidity levels and dew points in the fifties. It will become a bit more humid tomorrow and Wednesday but I still don’t see any nineties the rest of the week.