Home sales were up in January 2024 in comparison to January 2023. This annual increase came as some homebuyers started to benefit from lower fixed rate mortgage rates. New listings were also up year-over-year, but by a smaller amount than sales. The resulting tighter market conditions points toward possible price growth as we move into the spring market.

We had a positive start to 2024. The BoC expects inflation to decrease, which would support lower interest rates and thus bolster home buyer confidence. Lower mortgage rates will make the move to homeownership more affordable.

The 4,223 sales in January 2024 was an increase of more than one-third compared to January 2023. The number of new listings was also up year-over-year, but only by 6%. On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, both sales and new listings were up.

For now, last month’s average selling price was down by 1% year-over-year to $1,026,703.

Once the BoC starts cutting the overnight rate (hopefully starting in Q2), expect home sales to pick up even further. There will be more competition between buyers in 2024 as demand picks up and the supply of listings remains constrained. The end result will be upward pressure on selling prices.

The housing market is expected to improve with lower borrowing costs, there are still a number of policy issues that need to be addressed. At the federal level, the OSFI should be examining the mortgage stress test, especially in cases of renewal. The Province needs to remain focused on building 1.5m new homes. Helping first-time homebuyers get into the ownership market will ease movement across the entire spectrum and relieve pressure on the rental market.

The post Toronto Real Estate Market Report appeared first on Toronto Real Estate.

Interest Rates in 2024

As a real estate agent, I can tell you that the Toronto real estate market is expected to experience some changes in 2024 as interest rates go down. According to recent news articles, investors are optimistic about the real estate market as they expect the BoC to cut interest rates. This is good news for homebuyers as lower interest rates will make it easier to obtain a mortgage and increase affordability.

However, it’s important to note that the real estate market is complex and influenced by many factors. As such, it’s difficult to predict exactly what will happen in 2024. It is likely that, as mortgage rates fall, prices will be pushed up again. That being said, we can look at some trends and make some educated guesses.

According to a recent report by TRREB, Toronto area home sales declined by 12.1% in 2023, totaling 65,982 transactions at an average price of $1,126,604, down 5.4% from the 2022 average price. Despite this decline, the population of the GTA is growing and is expected to reach over 10-million residents in 20 years. This growth in population will lead to a further increase in demand for housing, which will definitely help drive up prices.

Another factor to consider is the impact of interest rates on the real estate market. As interest rates go down, it becomes easier for people to obtain a mortgage, which could also help increase demand for housing. This increase in demand will also push prices up, especially in areas where there is limited supply.

However, it’s important to note that interest rates are not the only factor that influences the real estate market. Other factors such as government policies, economic conditions, and demographic changes can also have a significant impact on the market. It will be interesting, for example, to see what effect Mayor Chow’s policies have on housing over the new few years.

In terms of what might happen with Toronto real estate in 2024, it’s difficult to say for certain. However, if interest rates do go down, we could see an increase in demand for housing, which could drive up prices. It’s also possible that the market could become more balanced as interest rates stabilize and consumer confidence increases.

In conclusion, the Toronto real estate market is complex and influenced by many factors. As a real estate agent, I would advise you to keep an eye on the market and work with a professional who can help you navigate the complexities of the market and make informed decisions.

The post Toronto Real Estate Blog appeared first on Toronto Real Estate.

While the overall demand for housing remained buoyed by record immigration in 2023, more of this demand was pointed at the rental market. The number of Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales in 2023 came in at less than 70,000 due to affordability issues brought about by high mortgage rates.

“High borrowing costs coupled with unrealistic federal mortgage qualification standards resulted in an unaffordable home ownership market for many households in 2023. With that said, relief seems to be on the horizon. Borrowing costs are expected to trend lower in 2024. Lower mortgage rates coupled with a relatively resilient economy should see a rebound in home sales this year,” said new Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Jennifer Pearce.

There were 65,982 home sales reported through TRREB’s MLS System in 2023 – a 12.1% dip compared to 2022. Despite an uptick during the spring and summer, the number of new listings also declined in 2023. The trend for listings has been largely flat-to-down over the past decade, which is problematic in the face of a steadily growing population. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, sales increased compared to November, while new listings declined for the third straight month.

The average selling price for all home types in 2023 was $1,126,604, representing a 5.4% decline compared to 2022. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the average selling price edged higher, while the MLS Home Price Index Composite edged lower.

“Buyers who were active in the market benefitted from more choice throughout 2023. This allowed many of these buyers to negotiate lower selling prices, alleviating some of the impact of higher borrowing costs. Assuming borrowing costs trend lower this year, look for tighter market conditions to prompt renewed price growth in the months ahead,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

“Record immigration into the GTA in the coming years will require a corresponding increase in the number of homes available to rent or purchase. People need to have comfort in knowing that they can plan their lives and future with the certainty that they will have the stability of an affordable place to live,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

TRREB is releasing its 2024 Market Outlook and Year in Review report and digital digest on Thursday, February 8. Discover the listings, sales and price forecast for 2024 and a more indepth look at the 2023 housing market. The outlook will also include the latest Ipsos polling on home buying and selling intentions, homeowners’ viewpoints on government policy and taxation, and insights on immigration.

The post Toronto Real Estate Market Report appeared first on Toronto Real Estate.

High borrowing costs and uncertain economic conditions continued to weigh on GTA home sales in November 2023. Sales were down year-over-year, while listings were up from last year. With more choice in the market, selling prices remained basically flat year-over-year.

Current trends has Toronto on pace for the lowest annual number of sales in 20+ years. Surprisingly, though, prices have been up year-over-year for 6 consecutive months.

Elevated borrowing costs have really taken their toll on the interest rate-sensitive housing market. However, it does appear relief is on the horizon. Bond yields have been trending lower and forecasters are anticipating Bank of Canada rate cuts in the first half of 2024. Lower rates will help alleviate affordability issues in the short term, though they are likely to spur price increases.

There were 4,236 MLS sales in November 2023 – a 6% decline compared to November 2022. Over the same period, the number of new listings was up by 16.5%. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, sales edged up compared to October 2023, while new listings were down by 5.5%.

The MLS Home Price Index and the average selling price, at $1,082,179, in November 2023 were basically flat in comparison to November 2022. But the tiny rise 0.3% did make it 6 straight months of year-over-year average price increases.

It is safe to say that home prices have adjusted from their peak in response to higher borrowing costs and settled into some sort of new normal. This has provided some relief for buyers, from an affordability perspective, though mortgage rates (and monthly payments) are still the main barrier to purchasing.

As mortgage rates trend lower next year and the population continues to grow at a record pace, expect demand to begin increasing again. This will eventually lead to renewed growth in home prices.

We know the demand for homes, both rental and owned, will continue to grow. We have seen some productive policy decisions recently that should help with housing affordability, though it will take many years for them to have any noticeable effect.

The post Toronto Real Estate Market Report appeared first on Toronto Real Estate.

Lack of affordability and uncertainty remained issues for many would-be home buyers in the GTA in October. As a result, sales edged lower compared to last year. However, selling prices remained higher than last year’s levels.

Yet more population growth and a resilient economy have kept overall demand for housing strong. However, high borrowing costs and interest rate concerns have seen many would-be buyers remain on the sidelines. When mortgage rates start trending lower, home sales will likely pick up again.

Realtors reported 4,646 sales in October – down 5.8% compared to October 2022. On a month-over-month, seasonally-adjusted basis, sales were also down in comparison to September. But, new listings were up noticeably compared to the 12-year low reported in October 2022.

The average selling price was up on year-over-year basis, by 3.5%. Competition between buyers remained strong enough to keep the average price above last year, and above the cyclical lows experienced in the first quarter of this year. However, home prices remain well-below their record peak reached at the beginning of 2022, which has mitigated the impact of higher borrowing costs to a certain degree.

The post Toronto Real Estate Market Report appeared first on Toronto Real Estate.

The impact of high borrowing costs, high inflation, uncertainty surrounding future Bank of Canada decisions and slower economic growth continued to weigh on Greater Toronto Area home sales in September. However, even with fewer sales and more listings, average selling price was up.

The short and medium-term outlooks for the GTA housing market are very different. In the short term, the consensus view is that borrowing costs will remain high until mid-2024, after which they should start to trend lower. Thus, we may start to see a marked uptick in demand in the second half of next year, as lower rates and record population growth spur an increase in buyers.

Realtors reported 4,642 home sales last month – down 7.1% compared to September 2022. The year-over-year dip in sales was more pronounced for semis and townhouses. Condos sales are not cratering, as many seem to think. On a month-over-month seasonally-adjusted basis, sales were also down slightly.

New listings were up strongly on a year-over-year basis from the abnormally low level in September 2022. The number of listings also trended upward on a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis.

The MLS Home Price Indexwas up by 2.4% year-over-year, while the average price was up by 3%. GTA home prices remain above the lows early in the first quarter of 2023. However, we have seen a more balanced market in the summer and early fall – suggesting that buyers could benefit from more negotiating power in the short term.

TRREB’s consumer polling shows that half of home buyers in Toronto will be first-time buyers in any given year. The average price of a condo in Toronto is over $700,000. Yet, the first-time buyer exemption for the City’s land transfer tax has remained at $400,000 since 2007. TRREB applauds Toronto City Council for asking City staff to provide a report on a more appropriate exemption level moving forward.

The post Toronto Real Estate Market Report appeared first on Toronto Real Estate.

Many are saying higher borrowing costs, continued uncertainty about the economy and Bank of Canada rates, plus the low supply of listings resulted in fewer home sales in August 2023 compared to August 2022. Or it was just the usual summer slow down. Lower than last year, yes, but it is not unusual.

The 5,294 sales in August 2023 were down by 5.2% compared to August 2022. Even though new listings were up by 16.2% year-over-year, providing some relief on the supply front. Year-to-date listings are still down substantially compared to the same period last year, which is keep supply lower than is optimum.

The average selling price remained virtually unchanged over the same period. The MLS Home Price Index for August 2023 was up by 2.5% year-over-year. The average selling price was also up, but by less than 1% to $1,082,496 over the same timeframe.

Looking forward, we know there will be continued demand for housing – both ownership and rental. Record immigration alone will assure this. In the short term, we will likely continue to see some volatility in terms of sales and home prices, as buyers and sellers wait for more certainty on the direction of borrowing costs and the overall economy.

The usual summer lull led to lower levels of sales and flat prices. Many buyers have had to adjust their offers in order to qualify for higher interest rates, but not all sellers have chosen to take lower selling prices, resulting in fewer sales.

While higher interest rates have certainly impacted affordability, the prospect of higher taxes will also hit households’ balance sheets, especially younger buyers with limited savings. Council will try to avoid it, but there is simply no way to prevent a property tax increase to keep the city financially afloat.

The move to raise the land transfer tax on properties over $3 million is not likely to affect a large portion of the market.

The post Toronto Real Estate Market Report appeared first on Toronto Real Estate.

Greater Toronto Area home sales, new listings and home prices were up in July 2023 in comparison to July 2022. This is the second time this year it has happened, June and July. This is the big news, as we have not seen YoY increases in sales and prices since February 2022, the peak before the BoC rate hikes slowed sales by 40% and dropped prices by 20%.

Real estate sales continued to be above last year’s levels in July, which suggests that many people have adjusted to the new, higher borrowing costs. With that being said, it does appear that the sales momentum that we experienced earlier in the spring has stalled somewhat. Some would say it is because of the Bank of Canada rate hikes in June and July. I also suggest that it has a lot to do with the normal slowdown in the market seen in July and August. Likely a bit of both…

Of course, the persistent lack of listings for people to purchase compared to previous years has helped keep the sales volume down. People simply cannot buy what isn’t for sale. There were 5,250 sales in July 2023 – a 7.8% increase over July 2022. Interestinly, during the same period, new listings were also up, by an even greater rate of 11.5%.

If we could string together a few months of listings increasing faster than sales, we could get inventory levels up and help slow price increases. As it is, the average selling price last month was up by 4.2% to $1,118,374. I still stand by my prediction from 2022 that 2023 would end up with a higher average price than 2022. And we seem headed in that direction.

Everything from the normal summer slowdown to uncertainty about borrowing costs, jobs and the overall economy has impacted home sales over the last two months. Heck, over the past year and a half, reall. But, over the long term, the demand for housing will remain strong and trends will continue upward.

The post Toronto Real Estate Market Report appeared first on Toronto Real Estate.

Toronto home sales and average selling price both rose in June, higher than last year’s levels for the first time since February 2022.

Obviously, housing demand is stronger than last year, despite higher borrowing costs. With this said, home sales were hampered last month by uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Canada’s outlook on inflation and interest rates. Furthermore, a persistent lack of inventory hurt buyers because they couldn’t find a home meeting their needs. You can’t buy what is not available.

The 7,481 sales in June 2023 were up 16.5% compared to June 2022. But, the number of listings was down by 3% over the same period. The YoY increase in sales coupled with the decrease in listings mean market conditions were tighter this past June relative to the same period last year. This pushed the average selling price up by 3.2% to $1,182,120.

GTA municipalities continue to lag in creating new housing at a pace sufficient to make up for the current deficit and keep up with record population growth. Leaders at all levels of government, including the new mayor-elect of Toronto, have committed to rectifying the housing supply crisis. We need to see these commitments coming to fruition immediately, or we will continue to fall further behind each month.

The post Toronto Real Estate Market Report appeared first on Toronto Real Estate.

The Toronto housing market continued to improve from a sales perspective in May 2023. Unfortunately, the supply of homes for sale did not keep up with demand. Sales as a share of new listings were up dramatically compared to a year ago. This is a clear signal that competition between buyers increased substantially compared to last year, resulting in the average selling price reaching almost $1.2 million.

We have seen some positive policy direction over the last couple of years, but governments have been failing on housing supply for some time. Recent polling found that Toronto residents gave Council a failing grade on housing affordability and pointed to lack of supply as the major issue. If we don’t quickly see housing supply catch up to population growth, the economic development of our region will be hampered as people and businesses look elsewhere to live and invest.

There were 9,012 sales through MLS in May 2023 – a 24.7% increase compared to May 2022. Conversely, new listings were down by 18.7% over the same period. On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, sales were up by 5.2% compared to April 2023.

The demand for housing has picked up markedly in recent months. Many homebuyers have recalibrated their housing needs in the face of higher borrowing costs and are moving back into the market. In addition, strong rent growth and record population growth on the back of immigration has also supported increased home sales. The supply of listings hasn’t kept up with sales, so we have seen upward pressure on selling prices during the spring.

The MLS Home Price Index was down by 6.9% year-over-year in May 2023, but up by 3.2% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis compared to April 2023. The average selling price, at $1,196,101, represented a small 1.2% decline relative to May 2022. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the average selling price was up by 3.5% compared to April 2023.

The post Toronto Real Estate Market Report appeared first on Toronto Real Estate.