Toronto Real Estate Blog

Toronto Real Estate Board reports:

October year-over-year MLS transactions up 64%.

In October 2009, Greater Toronto Realtors reported 8,476 sales, up 64 per cent from October 2008. The average price for October transactions was $423,559 - up by 20 per cent compared to the same month last year. "Strong sales growth has occurred across many property classes - from price ranges that would attract first-time buyers to luxury properties selling for over one million dollars," said TREB President Tom Lebour. "The highest rate of sales growth in October was experienced for properties selling for over $750,000. In contrast, luxury home sales declined at an above-average rate last year."

Year-to-date sales, at 74,721, were up nine per cent compared to the first ten months of 2008. Average price, at $392,264 was up by almost three per cent.

"After a short dip in the winter, the average home price in the GTA has rebounded because sales have been high relative to listings," according to Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "Watch for listings to rebound in 2010 as home owners react to the strong sales and price growth experienced in the latter half of this year."

Summary Of October Sales And Average Price

--------------------------------------------------------------
                                             October
                                    2009                  2008
                        --------------------------------------
                                 Average
                         Sales     Price  Sales  Average Price
City of Toronto ("416")  3,554  $464,212  2,136       $376,897
Rest of GTA ("905")      4,922  $394,205  3,019       $336,049
GTA                      8,476  $423,559  5,155       $352,974
--------------------------------------------------------------

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board's Market Watch report »

Luxury housing sales edge higher

Purchasers take advantage of buying opportunities in Ontario-Atlantic Canada, says RE/MAX

Luxury homes sales continue to accelerate as economic recovery takes hold in major markets in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released by RE/MAX. The RE/MAX Upper End Report found that momentum is building in St. John's, Saint John, Halifax-Dartmouth, Ottawa, Kingston, Greater Toronto, Hamilton-Burlington, and London as purchasers realize that the best buying period in recent history is about to come to a close. Sales are already on par or ahead of last year's levels in 50 per cent of cities surveyed, while the remaining markets are set to reach 2008 figures by year-end.

"Twelve months of healthy home buying activity have clearly been crammed into five short months," says Michael Polzler, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada. "It's hard to believe that the transition in the market began in May. We've seen steady upward momentum since that time, with solid year-over-year gains posted each and every month."

Pent-up demand and greater affordability have been the catalyst. Increased selection in all markets - except Greater Toronto - as well as record low interest rates have also helped fuel move-up activity from Ontario to Newfoundland.

Leading in terms of sales appreciation is London, Ontario where the number of homes sold, priced in excess of $500,000, has climbed 11 per cent from January to September 2009, compared to one year ago. Greater Toronto and Ottawa both reported a one per cent increase in the number of homes sold in the top end during the same period. Within the GTA, Richmond Hill/Thornhill is particularly heated, with sales up 24 per cent over 2008 levels, followed by Mississauga - up 10 per cent. St. John's, Newfoundland is on par with year-ago figures.

Of the six markets reporting a year-over-year decrease in sales, four are off by just a handful of transactions (10 units or less), including Halifax-Dartmouth (off eight units), Kingston & Area (off three units), Toronto - West End (off 10 units), and Oakville (off five units). Activity in the remaining two markets-Saint John and Hamilton-Burlington-is on the upswing, with the gap between 2008 and 2009 narrowing each month.

"A considerable shift is underway in the upper end," explains Polzler. "The price correction that we witnessed earlier in the year is over and prices have since firmed up. Conditions are more balanced across the board or leaning toward seller's territory once again. The one exception is the Greater Toronto Area -- now largely a seller's market -- with bidding wars making a comeback amid tight inventory levels. The strength of the luxury segment is evident. This is now a real estate market with all sectors working in tandem."

Highlights:

Upper end sales started to move upward as positive indicators of economic recovery began to emerge. The momentum is expected to continue as Canada edges closer to positive periods of GDP growth in Q4 2009 and in 2010.
Locals are fuelling luxury sales in the majority of markets surveyed. Activity among out-of-province and international purchasers has waned from one year ago, although their presence in still evident in some markets.
Sixty-one properties in Canada are currently priced over $10 million, with 18 of those located in Ontario. The priciest Ontario home is nestled in Toronto's prestigious Bridle Path area, listed at $23 million.
Three hundred properties currently listed for sale are priced over $5 million in Canada.
In Atlantic Canada, there are 22 listings in excess of $2 million - 13 in Nova Scotia, five in New Brunswick and two in Prince Edward Island. The most expensive property in Atlantic Canada is a $7.75 million estate on a bluff fronting the Atlantic Ocean on PEI's north coast.

See the full RE/MAX Upper End Report 2009 »

Competition Bureau acts on MLS fees

Tony Wong's front page article in the Toronto Star:

Canadians in the housing market will pay less in realty commissions and fees if the federal Competition Bureau has its way. In a landmark investigation, the bureau has concluded the Canadian Real Estate Association has anti-competitive rules and must change its ways, according to documents obtained by the Star.

Details of a settlement have yet to be decided, but the bureau's findings are expected to have a profound impact on the real estate industry – by permitting more innovative discount brokers into the market while allowing sellers to list their properties less expensively on the Multiple Listing Service.

With a membership of more than 96,000, Ottawa-based CREA is the largest real estate organization in Canada and represents the majority of the nation's realtors.

"The Bureau is concerned that CREA's rules have restricted consumer choice and limited the scope of alternative business models," says an internal memo by CREA president Dale Ripplinger. "Unfortunately, the Bureau seems to believe that CREA's rules ... create restrictions and barriers."

The bureau launched its investigation in 2007. Consumers have complained in the past about high realty fees and the need for more affordable services. The vendor of an average-priced $400,000 home in Toronto can pay a commission of as much as 5 per cent, or $20,000.

"This is absolute, total vindication," says Lawrence Dale, an owner of now-defunct Realtysellers, a Toronto-based discount broker that closed in 2006. "Once they've reached their settlement it means that the average guy on the street will be able to choose their real estate services and pay less for them."

CREA executives met with the bureau on Oct. 23 to hear the long-anticipated results, according to the letter. "At that meeting the Bureau set out the conclusions of their inquiry and their proposed remedy," says Ripplinger. "The Bureau's position is that if CREA does not remove these restrictions, the Commissioner of Competiton will initiate an application before the Competition Tribunal."

Ripplinger says CREA decided not to go before the tribunal, which can administer penalties, but is pursuing a settlement.

According to Ripplinger, CREA rules the bureau wants changed include those that say the listing realtor must act as the agent of the seller and receive and present all offers to the seller, and property information cannot be posted on the Multiple Listing Service without an agent representing the seller.

Changes to these rules would mean offers could be sent directly to the seller without the involvement of the listing agent. Consumers could likely have their listings posted on the MLS for a small fee.

Dale and partner Stephen Moranis claim they were forced to shut down their company because of rules implemented in 2007 by the realtor's association. Realtysellers offered services such as allowing consumers to post listings for a few hundred dollars on the MLS website, where more than 90 per cent of all home sales are made. The company is suing CREA and the Toronto Real Estate Board.

CREA owns the rights to the MLS.

In a separate lawsuit against TREB, Fraser Beach, another Toronto realtor, alleges the organization terminated his MLS access because he launched a discount brokerage service. A decision by Ontario Superior Court of Ontario Justice David Brown is expected soon.

TREB has argued it didn't block his access to the MLS for competitive reasons, but simply because he did not follow membership rules.

Both CREA and TREB have denied all allegations. A Toronto Real Estate Board spokesperson says the board does not comment on ongoing legal matters. Officials of the Competition Bureau were not available for comment Sunday.

Although the real estate association has agreed to reach a settlement, Ripplinger stressed "CREA does not agree with the Bureau's findings and conclusions, either as a matter of fact or as a matter of law." The association has called an emergency meeting for all member boards in December to discuss rule changes demanded by the Bureau.

Source: Tony Wong in the Toronto Star »

Rebound hammers affordability

Housing affordability deteriorated sharply in Toronto in the third quarter of 2009 as home prices spiked above pre-recession levels. "The big improvement in stock markets likely helped drive prices higher, especially since Toronto has many people who work in the financial services area," Hélène Bégin, senior economist at Desjardins Bank, said in an interview yesterday.

Low interest rates, pent-up demand and a lack of listings saw average Toronto prices for existing homes hit $402,762 in the July-September period, the largest such increase of any Canadian city.

See article by Tony Wong in the Toronto Star »

American home resale sales jump 9.4%

Home resales in September clocked the largest monthly increase in 26 years as buyers scrambled to complete their purchases before a tax credit for first-time owners expires. Sales jumped 9.4 per cent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million last month, from a downwardly revised pace of 5.1 million in August, the National Association of Realtors said Friday.

That pace was the strongest in two years and beat Wall Street forecasts. Sales had been expected to rise to an annual rate of 5.35 million, according to economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

"There's a miniboom going on in the housing market," said Thomas Popik, who conducts a monthly survey of real estate agents for Campbell Communications.

Nationwide sales are up nearly 24 per cent from their bottom in January, but are still down 23 per cent from four years ago.

But prices continued to drag with foreclosures and short sales, where the mortgage exceeds the sales price. The median price last month was $174,900 (U.S.), down almost 9 per cent from $191,200 a year earlier, and slightly lower than August's median of $177,300.

The inventory of unsold homes on the market fell about 7 per cent to 3.63 million. That's less than an eight-month supply at the current sales pace, and the lowest level since March 2007.

Sales rose especially in the west, where they grew 13 per cent from a month earlier. Foreclosure sales are booming in cities like Los Angeles, San Diego and Las Vegas.

First-time homebuyers and investors are snapping up those homes and taking advantage of low mortgage rates. They can also receive a tax credit of 10 per cent of the sales price, up to $8,000, if the sale is completed by the end of November.

The credit is so important to some buyers they are adding a clause to their contracts, allowing them to back out if the sale doesn't close by Nov. 30. But, economists note that cheap foreclosures and mortgage rates are also adding to the boom.

"We think the housing market has touched bottom and it is now only a matter of time until home prices stabilize – something that we anticipate to occur in late 2010," wrote Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.

Prices could fall further because rising unemployment leads to more foreclosures. The jobless rate, currently at 9.8 per cent, is expected to rise as high as 10.5 per cent next year, causing more people to fall behind on their mortgages.

"There's more supply that's going to come into the marketplace," said Stan Humphries, chief economist at real estate website Zillow.com. "That additional supply will outpace demand."

With concerns about the housing market still prominent, Congress is considering several proposals to extend the tax credit. Senators Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., and Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., want to extend it through June 30, and expand it to include all home buyers, at an estimated cost of $16.7 billion.

Realtors and homebuilders are loudly in favour, arguing that the tax credit is crucial to get the housing market back on its feet.

"We are not there in terms of removing the consumer fear factor," said Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors' chief economist.

One potential roadblock to an extension also emerged this week. There are concerns that some of the 1.5 million applications for the tax credit are fraudulent.

Source: Associated Press

Toronto Real Estate Board:

GTA Realtors report mid-October sales and average price stats.

In the first two weeks of October, Greater Toronto Realtors reported 3,631 sales – up 34 per cent compared to the first two weeks of October 2008. The average price for these transactions was up 17 per cent year-over-year to $414,479.

"While demand for existing homes has remained strong, it is important to recognize the context of current statistics. We are now making comparisons to the fall of 2008 when we experienced a marked decline in sales and average price," said TREB President Tom Lebour.

Year-to-date sales, at 69,964 are up six per cent compared to 2008. Average price, at $389,687, is up by two per cent.

"Tight market conditions throughout the GTA will continue to exert upward pressure on home prices in the fourth quarter," explained Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “Expect more listings in 2010 as home owners react to the price gains experienced in the second half of 2009.”

See the Toronto Real Estate Board report »

MLS home sales growing stronger

Canadian resale housing activity climbed to the highest level of any third quarter on record.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) home sales via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate boards totalled 135,182 units in the third quarter of 2009, according to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). This is the highest level of activity on record for the period from July to September. The number of transactions was up 18 per cent from the third quarter of last year, representing the biggest year-over-year increase since early 2002.

Seasonally adjusted national MLS® home sales numbered 127,941 units in the third quarter, up 12 per cent from the previous quarter. Building on two previous quarterly increases, seasonally adjusted MLS® home sales activity now stands 48 per cent above the low reached in the fourth quarter last year.

"Momentum for sales activity remained strong throughout the third quarter," said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. "Low interest rates, rebounding consumer confidence and an improving overall sense of economic security continue to draw homebuyers to the housing market."

Seasonally adjusted sales activity in the third quarter was up from the previous quarter in over 80 per cent of local markets. Quarterly activity increases in Vancouver (34 per cent), Toronto (11 per cent), and Calgary (19 per cent) contributed most to the national increase in activity.

Some 42,958 homes traded hands via the MLS® Systems of real estate boards in Canada in September 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This represents an increase of 1.5 per cent from August, and lifts seasonally adjusted activity 63 per cent above the low in January.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) MLS® home sales activity remained strong throughout the quarter. Resale activity in September 2009 posted the fourth consecutive increase from year-ago levels, all of which exceeded 15 per cent. Sales numbered 42,497 in September, up 17 per cent year-over-year and a new record for the month. Year-over-year activity increases in Toronto (28 per cent) and Vancouver (124 per cent) were the driving force behind the increase in actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales activity in September.

Climbing to $327,736, the national MLS® residential average price rose 11 per cent from the same quarter last year. The national average price continues to be skewed upward by a sustained increase in sales activity, including a sharp rebound in activity at the higher end of the price spectrum, in some of Canada’s priciest markets.

The national MLS® residential average price surpassed all previous monthly levels in September 2009, rising 13.6 per cent year-over-year to $331,602. July and August also posted new average price records for their respective months. A number of provinces set new average price records for the month of September, and Ontario posted the highest average price on record.

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the weighted national MLS® average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national MLS® average sale price was up 9.3 per cent year-over-year in September 2009.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the supply of homes coming onto the MLS® market edged up in the third quarter after four consecutive quarterly declines. Seasonally adjusted MLS® residential new listings were up one per cent from the previous quarter to 199,824 units. The increase reflects a quarterly rise in the number of new listings in British Columbia and Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland & Labrador. New listings remained stable or continued to retreat in other provinces.

While the small rise in seasonally adjusted new listings suggests that the number of homes coming onto the market may soon begin to edge higher, the number of new listings remains well down from year-ago levels. Barring a sudden unforeseen spike in levels, new listings are likely to remain down from year-ago levels for some time.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) new listings were down 12.5 per cent compared to the third quarter of 2008 after posting year-over-year decreases in each of the previous quarters. Newfoundland & Labrador is the only province in which new listings were up from year-ago levels.

An increase in sales activity and fewer new listings are drawing down inventories compared to year-ago levels. There were 208,215 homes listed for sale on the MLS® Systems of real estate boards in Canada at the end of September 2009, down 16 per cent from a year earlier. This is the fifth consecutive year-over-year decline in active listings, and the largest decline in more than six years.

Nationally, the number of months of inventory was 4.9 months in September 2009. This is down slightly compared to August, and remains well down from the recessionary peak of 12.8 months in January 2009. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

The seasonally adjusted residential dollar volume for MLS® home sales increased 20 per cent on a quarter-overquarter basis to $42.1 billion in the third quarter of 2009, the highest level on record. New provincial records were also set in British Columbia and Ontario, which propelled the national figure to a new high.

"Monthly sales activity remained on a strong upward trajectory throughout the third quarter in British Columbia, while showing signs that it may be topping out in other provinces," said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. "On balance, this suggests that sales activity may be starting to plateau after having climbed rapidly earlier this year."

"Average price increases over the rest of the year are expected to prompt sellers to return to the market after having retreated to the sidelines late last year and earlier this year," he added. "An increase in new listings will help keep a lid on price increases. Price increases over the rest of 2009 and early next year are likely to reflect declining average prices late last year and earlier this year."

Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association

Toronto new home prices higher

Toronto new housing prices rose by 0.2 per cent in August over July, as developers reported more traffic at their showrooms. While the uptick is encouraging, new home prices are still down by 0.1 per cent year over year, according to figures released by Statistics Canada today.

Toronto prices beat the national average, where the index rose by 0.1 per cent. "Despite the rebound in the housing market and the dramatic turnaround in existing home prices in recent months, new home prices remain fairly weak," said Millan Mulraine, an economics strategist with TD Securities.

Prices increased the most in St. John's, Quebec, and Regina. The largest monthly decrease in housing prices was in Hamilton.

"Some builders lowered their prices to encourage sales while others offered bonus upgrade packages," said Statistics Canada. Windsor and Edmonton also experienced declines.

Source: Tony Wong in the Toronto Star