torotrak.org.uk

Pixellation of a share price

noreply@blogger.com (One of the Team.) — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 12:01:00 +0000

A brief update from January (read earlier Blog), because things have moved on a bit since then at Torotrak in Leyland.

Pixellated
Firstly if you missed the Geneva motorshow - you will have missed out the news that Tata (owners of landrover and jaguar amongst others) showed off a prototype of a new super-mini passenger car - the Tata Pixel.
http://www.tatapixel.com/

The good news is that since then Tata have committed to production of the Pixel, potentially in as little as three years. Despite it being a prototype the one thing that they have said will carry over to production will be it's ability to turn on a very small turning circle. The good news for Torotrak shareholders is that this is enabled by using a Torotrak transmission in the rear axle - so it looks like the transmission at last has a potential customer in the automotive sector.
The shareprice responded by going from about 20p through 50p and then settling at about 41p.
I know in the January blog I ruled out in my personal opinion any inclusion of the TRK transmission in the Tata Nano - their other car which is already in production - so technically I'm right on that note - however I'll confess that I expected Tata to come out with a bus-sized transmission before they went to the automotive sector.
It's nice to be wrong every now and again. We await news over the next few years of pre-production testing and what-car sneak-peak reviews from Warwick where the car is being developed.

Allison wholemeal
When questions start about what is going to be the bread and butter revenue and dividend income for Torotrak over the years, today's (13th April 2011) announcement on the continuing license deal to go to production-ready design with Allison might be the answer.
http://www.torotrak.com/pdfs/rns/2011/further_commit_Allison_final_13.04.11.pdf

Basically it's an £8m license continuation fee in the 14,000 tonne vehicle market. Importantly the other licencee in this market (the unnamed European Truck and Bus Manufacture ETBM) have exclusive rights from when they started their program - so if Allison had not renewed their license - it would have handed global exclusivity to the ETBM and prevented Allison from being able to continue their work - despite being 9% shareholders in Torotrak until 2013. On reflection it looks like common sense that Allison were going to renew their license - the question was always - how much and for how long ? well 2013 is the answer - so here's two years work for Torotrak in engineering consultancy.

If you can unwind the wording about what rights they have after 2013 - well that's anybodies guess. Also - getting to production ready is not the same as a production announcement - so lets keep an eye on the directors 2013 vesting share options to make sure they don't slip past the radar of the remuneration committee (they are subject to the transmission being in production, not just designed for production - there is a vast difference as we found out at MTD).

It is overall excellent news and I'm pleased to see that Allison didn't wait to the last - which is a good indication of a working relationship between the two companies.

It is also important to note the comments of the latest news about fuel economy legislation as well as NOx legislation (Euro IV) where it goes as far as saying that Torotrak technology can help with this by running the engine at it's most efficient operating points. It stops short of saying it can meet EuroIV totally - but then I guess that depends on the engine design that you have strapped it to in the first place.

The announcement also takes the chance to mention the other large truck programme - ETBM which is so far confidential as to who it is. We await the confirmation that the ETBM has completed testing of their new vehicle (confirmed as handed over to them by Torotrak) - but that might take another year or so. If they break cover on production design plans that might also have a material impact on the shareprice.

So, whilst we watch the shareprice touch 50p today up from 42p, the next publicised news will be the year end report on May the 24th (the FY year ended on March the 31st so it will miss this Allison announcement).

Keep an eye out for the year end report, as progress on the Flybrid project on automotive vehicles (jaguar) will hopefully again push Torotrak into the wider public conciousness. Rotrak might make an outside showing of positive test results - but they might not have made any test units yet - we watch and wait.

Congratualtions to all those who have now broken back through your break even price on Torotrak holdings. I for one won't be selling at any time soon - I've factored in the cost of 10 years of holding this share and the price has to rise a fair bit more for me to hit that particular break even point - and anyway - I'm investing to make a profit - otherwise - why invest.

One thing the Allison announcement does give us - a potential royalty stream being derived from about 2015 if they make it into production. So that's only four more years to go. They might want to go a bit faster if they are to keep below the legislation restrictions on the horizon.

Good luck and until next time

Current State of the TRK Nation - January 2011

noreply@blogger.com (One of the Team.) — Mon, 17 Jan 2011 11:58:00 +0000

It's not often one comes across a good write up of Torotrak with it's history and hopes. If you want a crash course in TRK Torotrak - this is a good place to start.
Recently one has been made as a reason for entering a virtual share price-rise competition:

http://boards.fool.co.uk/nfsc-write-up-torotrak-trk-12151512.aspx

I don't personally agree with anything regarding the Tata Nano on the report - but that's just my perspective.

If there are any new investors who want a shortcut to their investor research in Torotrak - I'd recommend that they have a read of it. Then go and have a read of the TRK house broker note from last December 2010.

Thanks to the author Mikkko for such a thorough going over the history and summarising the salient points.

2010 Half year results and New Brokers

noreply@blogger.com (One of the Team.) — Sat, 27 Nov 2010 19:47:00 +0000

Since the last post on this blog there has been considerable progress in the business partners projects with Torotrak.

Firstly I suggest you go and have a read of the Torotrak Half Year report here: http://www.torotrak.com/pdfs/rns/2010/Half-year-results_final_23.11.10.pdf

There are several bits of good news contained in the report, some strategic, some to do with progress and others to do with publicity. You might also want to read the new broker report from new brokers Charles Stanley. They have put an initial share value target of 40p up as their first shot.

Firstly the long awaited MTD license curtailment is now underway and their rights to use the Infinitrak IP being restricted. Sources inside MTD have long said they can't manufacture the TTT or STT (or would that be some of the employees don't want to create competition for their incumbent hydraulic solution ?) - and we have known for over 6 months about the problems. After the missed design freeze in June it was never going to hit production this autumn. Strategically this now frees Torotrak to persue other customers for the STT and it's unique capabilities - which presents a great opportunity for new business development. It's almost a reverse Toyota situation, the customer couldn't get the design to work but this time TRK pulled the plug, not the customer. This alone indicates an improved confidence in the designs by Torotrak.

There is a huge list of partners getting nearer the point of convincing themselves that there can be no turning back to fixed gear ratios. It is truly getting to an exciting part in Torotraks history with large well respected companies investing significant amounts of their own time and money to make IVT technology become a reality.

Again I will remind you to read the half year report - I'm not going to replicate it here, as a long time follower I can see that slowly the technology is being fitted into the practical capabilities it has.

A long time ago I wrote a strategic assignment for a postgraduate degree - using Torotrak as a case study. The conclusion of it was twofold. 1. The need for IVT technology will be driven by legislation - and finally now the Euro Emmission regulations are looming on the horizons and the fines looking more like a reality - the vehicle manufacturers are getting their acts together rapidly. 2. Non-powertrain solutions have been found to get round the "not invented here" and incumbent technology investment (i.e. 6AT gearboxes in saloon cars).

The long term strategy has to be "surround the enemy" (in the words of Sun-Tsu) to develop so many solutions being used so widely that it becomes a no-brainer for passenger cars to adopt the technology. Passenger cars being the volume business that would deliver true TRK value.

This Strategic solution is finally being realised with several derivations of IVT technology making it into reality across different sizes, applications and concepts.

1. Main transmissions

European Bus and Truck - three regime IVT powertrain installed
Allison - Technology transfer complete for full IVT powertrain production ready design
Carraro continue to exhibit and accellerate their IVT family of VARY-T transmissions

2. KERS (Flywheel)

Flybus - Retrofit KERS (kinetic energy recovery solution) using an auxilliary power take off on the normal transmission. Cheaper than electric hybrid and more efficient. And more environmental !
Flybrid - new install - Test transmission installed in Jaguar saloon car for on road testing

3. Engine speed de-coupling devices.

Rotrak - Variable drive supercharging. This allows the effectiveness of the boost to be felt properly at all engine revs, not just at a certain rev-range. This means smaller engines can have a much higher power output and better driveability. Along with the obvious emmissions reduction.

Retrofit.
The exciting market prospect of being able to retrofit a KERS unit into a commercial vehicle is mouthwatering. Instead of the delay of awaiting for the new vehicle production programme to come to fruition (three to 5 years at least just to get to market launch), once a viable economic solution has been developed - it can be installed. Will it be installed ? - in the hard economics of the haulage industry anything with a 1 year payback will be snapped up. If you have an Allison transmission with a PTO languishing about - here's your chance to save some money and be more competitive.

Taking the retrofit route as a faster one to market penetration, one has to look at the possibilities of retrofit not just for KERS units but for Main Transmissions and Rotrak Superchargers. My personal conclusion is that Rotrak may have some possibilities,, main transmissions almost none, but a Retrofit KERS unit into a passenger car remains a much larger goal to be targetting.

Outlook for 2011
With prototype work starting to bear tangible real world results (not just mathematical model results), and a real ride experience that can be felt, the decision makers at Torotrak Licensee companies will soon be putting down hard money for real new vehicle production projects. With their experiences of TRK technology I fully expect that those projects will have a view to the inclusion of TRK technology. I just hope that TRK are ensuring that the decision makers are going to get that experience and make them advocates of the technology.

2011 is going to be the year that critical decisions will be made by the large licensee companies. Until those decisions are made, Torotrak is just another UK technology company. After those decisions are made Torotrak and IVT technology could be one of the most disruptive technologies we have seen since the invention of the car gearbox in the 20th century.

If you invest in Torotrak for dividends, you have about 4-5 more years at least to wait (if not longer depending on the future R&D investments), but if you are investing because of perceived future value - then you'll probably want to be in before those big decisions are made. We watch and wait with patience.

(p.s. all of this report is conjecture and has no value or robustness associated with it in any way and may not be taken as advice. Always do your own research and responsibility for your own financial matters)

AGM 2010 and Tech Talk

noreply@blogger.com (One of the Team.) — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 12:51:00 +0000

Just a gentle reminder that it is the AGM taking place next week on the 29th of July 2010
More information here: http://torotrak.com/content/401/AGM-2010-details.aspx

The annual report is available here for those who have not yet read it:
http://torotrak.com/pdfs/annreps/Torotrak%20Annual%20Report%202010_final_for%20web_22%2006%2010.pdf

With promises of a launch of the quieter transmission from Infinitrak in MTD lawnmowers almost for a year now, and the possible news of the KERS unit being fitted to a Jag anytime soon as part of the TSB project there should be something for everyone, or just a sausage roll.

Progress with Allison and their standardised IVT transmission - and where they stand on licenses as well as the news on the current testing rigs for the European bus & truck manufacturer should be covered.

Additionally new partnerships as Rotrak for superchargers will be a topic of interest too. From the books it looks like TRK have put all the money in (even if it is as a loan - which seems a bit shakey) - but there is a nice photo of the CAD model on the website now.

Tech Talk
If you're interested the traditional pre-AGM tech talk has been arranged on this topic:
Subject... "The application of Toroidal Variable Auxiliary Drives (TVAD's) to super chargers"
Speakers... Roger Stone & Chris Brockbank
Time... 7:30pm on Wed 28th July
Location... http://www.hunterslodgemotel.co.uk/

Seeing as the preliminary results stated they are going to try to focus on shareholder value (and in one comment say that the shareholders to date therefore have not been getting any), it will be an interesting AGM to see if director salaries, royalties and licenses are going to be addressed as well as if more investment in joint ventures is the new flavour of the board.

The main concern is if the funds in the coffers are starting to burn holes in the boards pockets and they are getting jumpy. If there is excess money left in the coffers then a share-buy-back scheme might be the fastest way to deliver shareholder value. One other suggestion has been to get another licensee to purchase shares in the company - which is all well and good - but that is only likely to result in another share issue and dilution of shareholder value. Heaven forbid, they could even issue a DIVIDEND. But I've not got any hopes up.

Analysis of the preliminary report showed the short to medium term future of Torotrak is in the hands of Allison Transmissions - all outcomes are good - as long as they keep their current license - not continuing at all would obviously be bad. Some people seem to be holding out for Allison to take up all their global exclusivity options and more in terms of power rating - and anything else is bad news - which I can't agree with - as long as they are bringing their transmission to market that's great. If they are focussing on one solution at a time to get it to market and make it work in time for the emissions legislation that will hit - brilliant. The only bad news is if they stop all development - which for a company which owns 9% of TRK - is on the "highly unlikely" side of the scale.

Some news of Carraro would be welcomed, and any other tractor projects. We don't hold anything out for news on TATA, but to still be flagged as under concept studies for commercial vehicles (see page 7 of the annual review) after all this time - and allow to be named - would suggest it's not the flaming torch of shareholder value it once was.

Summary
Torotrak are a company in flux. They started out as an academic research project and after targeting the much maligned SUV market (which collapsed before TRK got there) have diversified around in both application and size. Scaleability is being explored, but so is the business model of licensing and partnership because in today's tough times of austerity - there isn't a single car manufacturer project listed on the page 7 diagram. How do TRK get people to invest in their technology and commit to getting it to market ? Buying a seat on the JV board seems to be the current idea - but is that really going to get enough voting rights to make things happen ?

Perhaps at some point, TRK need to design a standardised transmission for a product that needs a CVT (scooters perhaps), find a customer who will put them in (and buy them!), and get a subcontractor to make them and sell them at a profit. Then and only then will Torotrak have real control over their destiny, at the moment they are just spectators, just like us shareholders. As such the JV with Rotrex will be watched with great interest.

Preliminary results: First full year profit achieved

noreply@blogger.com (One of the Team.) — Thu, 27 May 2010 17:03:00 +0000

Preliminary results announcement for the year ended 31 March 2010

Full details available here: http://www.torotrak.com/Resources/Torotrak/Documents/Prelim_results_2010_FINAL.pdf

Operating Profit and Profit after Tax both achieved.

Financial highlights

Revenue growth of 66% and above break even in profit after tax
Robust cash resources of £13.1m at year end
Three-year cumulative positive operating cash flow of £0.4m, considerably ahead of expectations set at the time of the 2007 Placing & Open Offer
Strong level of licensing and engineering orders

Operational highlights

Refreshed strategy increases emphasis on lead customer programmes and energy efficiency solutions to tackle CO2 emissions
Commercial vehicle prototype transmissions built and on rig tests, with lead programmes progressing well
Second Allison contract payment of £3.75m received in March 2010
Infinitrak's second transmission completing field tests prior to production release
15% stake in Rotrex acquired and Rotrak joint venture established to develop and commercialise new technology to assist with engine downsizing

For further details go and read the whole report (linked above)

Before I comment any further I'm going to wait for the reports and information gained from the TPSA representative meeting held with Dick Elsey on Wednesday. Hopefully there will be more information on the positive direction of the new strategy, and the closure of the old strategy and clear end milestones of projects related to it- one of which will be the Allison licensing decision next year.

Key to all this is that we have to wait to see the result of the Commercial transmission projects and the Allison transmission license which combined has had 55% of the companies resources working on it through 2010. Crunch time is in 2011 when Allison have to make a decision on their licensing rights.Watch that space...

Along with a new business strategy we seem to have a new entente cordial with potential investors and shareholders. I for one look forwards to the new focus on communication and information from Torotrak: "our task will be to point to the progress and milestones that inform shareholders of the increased prospects, confidence and proximity to recurring royalties and production earnings." - N.B. Please employ someone who can write with clarity and a positive outlook when you do (I hear that Alastair Campell is looking for a job.)

More news as it happens - There is going to be a tech talk on Superchargers before the next AGM, I'll post details here as before.

May The Craftsman Zero Turn 42 inch 22 hp Model 28933 Rest In Peace

noreply@blogger.com (One of the Team.) — Thu, 15 Apr 2010 13:51:00 +0000

As you know - I'm not posting a great deal on this blog as the majority of content is automated and it keeps things ticking over as an information route.

Every now and again there are some nuggets of information I want to draw attention to and this is one of them:

May The Craftsman Zero Turn 42 inch 22 hp Model 28933 Rest In Peace

Given the technical success of the product and the twin-torroidal transmission, (TTT) in the Infinitrak range of products with MTD as the manufacturer, this news is either indicative of the continuing recession in the USA (which is tip-toeing it's way out) or the continued market positioning of the TTT as luxury just being too luxury for too many people.

One cannot fault the pedigree of the product, the market review (as can be read in the link above) however it seemed to be continually reviewed and measured in the wrong ride-on mower category because of it's zero-turn capabilities. The marketing appears to have been off target for the key customers if this is the case - if the experts can't even pigeon-hole it correctly what chance have the salesmen ?

Moving on - in other news we draw closer to the Jaguar project and their installation and adaptation of the Flybrid flywheel solution. Slide 14 - system as installed is the one to look at. on the link here:
http://www.climate-change-solutions.co.uk/pictures/content482/4-1_martin_dowson_-_fuel_cell_conf_v2.pdf

New Scientist magazine also recently highlighted the torotrak transmission credentials in their recent article here:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18769-green-machine-rethinking-internal-combustion-engines.html

as references to the technology become more and more public mainstream, hopefully the technology will also start to become more visible in the public domain - a million miles on from the acedemic and industry publications which previously held so much information and hope.

Until the Year end announcements or further RNS's, that's it from me. Hopefully there will be some dilligent forward looking statement on the situation with Sears and Infinitrak sometime soon (explaining that the single torroidal transmission is the reason why...)

Enjoy the spring weather !

Torotrak TechTalk on Sunday the 31st January 2010

noreply@blogger.com (One of the Team.) — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 13:10:00 +0000

The Torotrak Tech Talk - Sunday 31st January

This weekend's Sunday Lunch and TechTalk takes place on Sunday the 31st January 2010

The talk by John Fuller, (Group Leader – Hydraulics, Simulation and Modelling at Torotrak) is titled ‘Flywheel hybrid systems and the full-toroidal variator’.

It will be held this Sunday at the Lord Leycester Hotel in Warwick.

http://www.hobyhotels.com/lordindex.php

Please assemble ~12:00 for lunch at 13:00 and the talk starts ~14:00

You are ALL very welcome.

BRB (brb@msn.com)

Torotrak 2010 Tech Talk - Sunday January - 31st

noreply@blogger.com (One of the Team.) — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 11:08:00 +0000

Organised by Bob Bridges, there will be the annual Torotrak Tech talk presentation by TRK engineers themselves.

Sunday Lunch and Tech Talk

Yes we have another New Year Sunday Lunch & TechTalk lined up on the last Sunday of January (31.01.2010) and yet again it will be at the Lord Leycester Hotel in Warwick. As always the event is open to all, you do not need to be a member of the TPSA or even a shareholder, to join us.

The location is here: http://www.hobyhotels.com/lorddirections.php

and the rough timings are...
Arrive >12:00 noon
Lunch @ 13:00
TechTalk @ 14:00

The talk will cover what TRK has been doing on road cars and bring us up to date with the Jaguar project. The official title of the associated paper, which has been given at several conferences, is "The Full Toroidal Variator for Mechanical Hybrid Systems" or perhaps we could more simply call it "IVT Development from F1 to Road Vehicles".

The Lord Leycester hotel has just changed hands so he will confirm the catering arrangements and other details as soon as he knows them.

Please Email Bob Bridges on brb@msn.com if you are going to go or need any more information.

Torotrak.org a shareholders perspective

noreply@blogger.com (One of the Team.) — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 22:00:00 +0000

Hello and welcome to my Torotrak page. Essentially it's my one stop shop page of information and news feeds on everything I know to be Torotrak. Why ? well mainly because I'm lazy and don't like to have to click back about the place all the time. You might be lazy too, so just bookmark this and I'll see you back later.

I'm not going to explain who or what Torotrak are here...
, you can read that on their website, or go to one of the many discussion forums listed above and find out what lots of other people are typing about.
I for one, might flag up the odd deadline or deal on these blog pages, or breaking news items, or event a bit of rumour, but essentially - most of it is out there already and this is your starting block.

Using the power of t'internet this page should bring you most of the news items going on as soon as they are posted. The official TRK RNS feed is shown on here as well as their Press feed - so you're pretty much where it is at. Google alerts also feed into this page (see below), and an ever growing list of rss feeds is also being accumulated that all come directly to this page. I just need to fix in a twitter feed and we're covered.

So, this is where it all should be. If you can't see anything that you think should be on here - well just leave a comment on one of these posts and I'm sure I'll pick it up.