Total Survivalist Blog

Be Advised

2018-09-30T21:06:00.003-07:00

If there is stuff on this blog that you wish to have access to in the future best save it. Let’s say you have till this Friday.

RE: Prepology 101

2018-09-27T15:34:00.001-07:00

pre·pare

[prəˈper]

VERB

make (something) ready for use or consideration.
"prepare a brief summary of the article"
synonyms: make ready · get ready · put together · draw up ·
[more]

In a recent discussion Commander Zero asked what people did for Paratus this year. Personally I just happened to buy 30 pistol mags, 10 rifle mags and a spare BCG for my AR on that day. Zero asked if I knew something he didn't. All I knew was that I had money and there was a pretty good sale. I don't need those magazines today. Heck I might never need them, but making purchases like that now, when they are readily available and I have spare cash is insurance against a day when they are rare.

Our friend Commander Zero did an excellent post recently that bears discussion. We prepare in advance for when bad times come. Even before I was a survivalist the concept that you save (like most kids I worked more in the summer) during the summer to have money during the winter when redneck manual labor jobs are few and far between. The $50 I put away instead of wasting is a couple tanks of gas.

In terms of preparation we have two big variables resources and time.

Resources vary to some degree as our lives ebb and flow individually as well as riding the waves of the economy. We have to use resources that are abundant (at least relatively) during the fat times to prepare for the lean times. You can't very well put a thousand bucks into savings if you are flat broke, 2 months behind on bills and digging through the couch cushions for gas money. That money has to be saved while things are good.

Time is more problematic because you can't surge and catch up. Now way to compress a year worth of eating right and PT (or combatives, dry fire, etc) into a month.

I'm not saying to do anything crazy, just to keep working and making slow consistent progress.

What am I working on?

-Finances. Stashing cash and shiny metals.

-Fitness. Getting back to where I should be.

-Rounding out gun (and gun related) stuff. Not so much new acquisitions but the little stuff. Some sights for this gun, zero that new scope, buy the expensive belt I really need, etc.

-Keep organizing systems.

Those things don't totally occupy my life but they are a slow consistent part. A little money every paycheck and some work when I have time available. Slow and steady. The tortoise beats the hair.

Time is constant and always limited. The thing is we can't cheat it. Some things like fitness are slow cooker concepts. Unlike resources (especially if you make a lot) which can be surged to get a lot of stuff done in a short period of time doesn't work that way. There isn't a way to cram a year or 5 of eating right, PT, combatives and IDPA into a month.

Friday Free Form- Paratus, Glocks, Mags, Economics and Life

2018-09-21T14:40:00.000-07:00

Today is Paratus if you celebrate it.

I had a Commander Zero week in terms of guns appearing for prices I just can't pass up. Without going into details I am planning to stick with Gen 1-3 Glock 9mm's.

Brownells has Magpul Glock 19 15 round mags 10/$119 which is a smoking deal! I have used them in John Mosbys Clandestine Carry Pistol class and IDPA. They are totally reliable and work just fine. If I recall John said minus one bad mag he liked them.

I also went ahead and ordered a spare complete BCG for my AR-15. It happened to also be on sale.

The last week has been stupid expensive here. Not a week that can happen often but it went a long way in securing my supply of magazines.

In yesterdays post I hit on some points that merited expansion and repetition.

Economics- It is pretty likely that we will see some sort of economic downturn in the next couple years or so. Might be a good idea to take profits on some stocks that have run and put them elsewhere. Silver and gold are cheap right now. Paying off debt, especially high or variable interest debt, it always a good idea. Cash is pretty handy also.

The biggest thing I was getting at yesterday is that preparedness concerns shouldn't run your life. In most cases (obviously not a 50th story apartment in Manhattan) you can get quite prepared without major life changes. You should move to a cabin in the woods because you want to live there for the fly fishing or whatever, not just because you are worried about some unlikely event. Live how you want to, with some emergency preparedness insurance, so that if things go more or less normally you won't be disappointed.

Beyond that I need to schedule a range trip for the next week. Also work on some new goals. Organize some stuff and make a couple of lists.

What have you been up to?

Questions- House or Off Grid Van with Steely Dan

2018-09-20T16:11:00.001-07:00

A tribe member hit me up with a question. With his permission I cleaned up the chat a but and am posting it here. I copied it from a chat so if the formatting is a little off that's why. His words, edited for content, OPSEC and length.

Steely Dan- I'm actually looking at a van today for off grid, I know I lend myself to doom thinking but based on my little economic study increased interest rates equal bad times ahead aka step one to a hyper inflation

Ryan- Long answer to follow.

Steely Dan- Hell Yeah Brother

Ryan

Are you planning to live off grid in a van or to have it as a plan b?

Steely Dan- More I see the current system crumbling around me and putting the time in at a job to eventually get a raise to eventually afford a house while wages stagnate and decrease due to inflation and also automation seems like its just not going to be worth the grind anymore like it was say even late 90 pre crash 2000's. I don't have kids and I think my time and resources are better spend enjoying the next 4 years and seeing how things shake out while at the same time having mobile off grid shelter.

Ryan

Let me think on that and I’ll write soon

Steely Dan- Awesome

Ryan

It doesn't relate to what I am going to say but do you mind if I clean this all up (no names, places, etc) and post it on the blog? (Blog note- I only post things like this if have the persons permission.)

So breaking this down we can look at the following issues: Economic depression/ recession/ collapse, buying a house vs off grid van, inflation and wage stagnation, Join the rat race or wait it out.

Economic depression/ recession/ collapse- Expecting some sort of economic downturn in the next few years is a pretty sure thing. The bull run the stock market is on has to stop eventually and signs say it will be fairly soon. You said 4 years, I would say more like the next 2. The real question is how bad will it be. Are we talking 2008/9, 1979 or 1929? The answer is nobody really knows. In general the higher the boom the bigger the correction but its really anybody's guess. It is also worth noting that the more extreme a prediction the less likely it is to come true. So a drop of say 20% on the stock market, GDP growth going to say 1% and unemployment going up a couple points inside 4 years would be really high. The odds of a 40% drop, GDP retracting 3-4% and 10% unemployment are pretty low. Odds of an 80% drop, GDP retracting 20% and 25% unemployment are in the powerball range. So we don't really know what is going to happen. Break.

Inflation- What is inflation? Inflation is when the value of something goes down due to an increase in supply. We will use something beside money as the example right now. Lets say we are talking cigarettes at some kind of military training or in jail where they are difficult to get. The cigarettes are valuable because they are rare. People can use them to trade for stuff they want, to avoid details, etc. If say the Marboro Man showed up with a pick up truck filled with cartons all of a sudden everyone has plenty of smokes. SO even if smokes are still used for a medium of exchange (and it is in IF) their value relative to a guard shift or an MRE brownie went way down. Make sense?

Inflation of a fiat (not backed by a commodity such as gold or silver) currency is the same except with one addition. At a big picture level (vs say a boom town) inflation happens in currencies because the supply increases while the amount of goods and services that supply is chasing is stagnant or grows slower. More dollars and the same amount of stuff. So far this is the same as our cigarette example. The difference is governents can just print more fiat currency at will. It is a hidden tax.

This took me a long time to get so I will try to explain it here. Why is inflation a hidden tax? Inflation is a hidden tax because the government is spending more money which devalues the money you currently have. It simply skips the unpleasant effort of making a new tax and collecting it. If you have a thousand bucks in savings and the government creates 20% inflation in effect you have $800 in purchasing power now. Same as if they passed a 20% tax on savings and took your $200. That is why it is a hidden tax. Break

Economic problems, inflation and wage stagnation. When governments have economic downturns they try to spend their way out of them. They inject money into banks, build public works, hire people, etc. Think of it like trying to use some starter fluid to get a problem engine going. The issue is that governments typically don't have the amount of money needed to do this sitting around. They don't want to tax people directly either. So they print it or borrow it. Mostly they print it. This as we discussed earlier causes more money to be moving around which causes inflation. Wage stagnation. The major issue with inflation is that its not applied evenly. If we woke up and a zero or 3 were added to everything it wouldn't be an issue. Your bills and debts would be higher but so would your savings and wages.It doesn't happen that way though. Things adjust unevenly. Also since these things come with economic problems unemployment goes up. That means employers can be pickier and don't have to compete for workers as much. So wages will often stagnate, both in nominal amount and compared to inflation. Break

Why join the rat race? I think the first question is "Do you want to join the rat race anyway?" I would say that we have to make a plan for our lives that considers both potential (realistic) worst case scenarios as well as things going along more or less like normal. It would suck to live a life you hate because you are getting ready for some extreme scenario to die in bed in your bunker alone at 85 with it never having happened. I think we need to plan and prepare for (atleast somewhat) realistic potential problems but I don't think we need to completely define our lives based upon those scenarios.

Buying a house vs off grid van. In an inflationary scenario owning a home at a fixed rate is a good thing. Provided of course that you keep enough income to pay the mortgage. It is true that the relative value of the mortgage would go down but your wages would likely stay flat (or even go away if you got laid off, etc) and your other variable costs would go up. A realistic assessment of how recession proof ones job is would be prudent here. One middle ground option would be buy a house and if things get bad just rent it out. A lot of families kept their homes living in the basement (or whatever) and renting out the rest during the great depression. Now if you are worried that won't work because the town you live in would take too big of a hit, etc then maybe buying isn't wise. The van thing has benefits for sure but also drawbacks. Can you live in a van where you want to live?

Do you actually want to live in a van down by the river? We get kind of spoiled with plumbing, hot water, etc all. Does your spouse want to do that? Do you accept the hit that living in an van is going to bring to your dating/ social life?

Steely Dan

I'm driving one second

Ryan

NO worries. Just stuff to think about.

I think a fundamental question here is what you want your life to be like? If you went the van route and things kept humming along normally would you feel like the sacrifice was made in vain?

As a middle ground if one can pull together the cash a van set up for camping and a little chunk of land somewhere is a pretty good back up option. Having a van to take camping and a chunk of land out in the middle of nowhere (or at a relatives place) where you could potentially pre position bulk supplies is a pretty solid contingency plan. While it isn't as awesome as a doomsday bunker, hunting cbin or ranch it is probably a lot more realistic as a back up plan for most normal people. For the price of a couple nice vacations you could have a van and a little piece of land. I know this isn't as clear cut as it might have been but hope it gives you a way to look at these problems.

Steely Dan

This helps alot and yes feel free to publish, I think with the is it worth the gamble question I'm looking at the recreation aspect of doing some cool stuff with what's left of my 20's and more sacrificing parts of my life, security, stability, for the freedom of movement and ownership of my time usually reserved for well of retired white people

Ryan

I feel a lot better knowing it’s more that you want that lifestyle than some worst case scenario thing

I would say you probably want a small rv or travel trailer. A bathroom/ shower and the ability to refrigerate/ cook food are pretty important. Ditto some kind of heating system.

There are tons of available ones at a variety of price points

Weekend Ramblings

2018-09-09T15:28:00.000-07:00

Gamer Guns:
As I get further into shooting sports I am looking at buying some guns.

I need to get a semi automatic shotgun if I am going to even make a half attempt to be competitive (locally and with my shooting buddies, no grand delusions). Last match we had a stage that was like 30 rounds of shotgun, no Bueno with a pump gun. The obvious answer is a Stoeger M3K. Basically they are a Benelli system in a Turkish made gun at a price just under 7 bills. All it needs is a tube extension and its ready to go. I will shoot one more match this year. Probably not going to have one before that (at least broken in and ready) so I might as well wait till next year.

A Glock 34 wouldn't hurt either. More site radius, barrel and mass. This will probably be first since I could shoot it all winter. I might just split the middle and get a Glock 17 though.

Gear:
For 3 gun I want to shoot with the gear I would use if something bad happened or as close as is practical. The only real addition would be a shotgun shell carrier. I figure if nothing else using the same type of holster and mag pouches gets me a lot of carry over. Ideally my 3 gun setup will be my same by the bedside setup.

Do you guys shoot 3 gun? Are you using a gamer set up or trying to use what you would otherwise carry?

IDPA (also known as 90's action shooting) I am stuck as we can't shoot appendix. I could use the same type of holster on a belt though.

I think the answer is finding an OWB kydex holster I like and buying a pair. One can live on a sort of war belt for 3 gun and the other can slide onto a normal belt for IDPA.

Glock 43: Had one for awhile and ended up swapping it away. I am becoming convinced single stack 9's just aren't for me. I am not so sure a snubby .38 isn't a better option for a 2 round deficit. Once they get the kinks worked out I might get a Sig 365.

The Economy: We are in a big bubble and its going to pop. If I could say 100% when I would be trading stocks from an awesome sailboat somewhere. Wouldn't recommend doing anything crazy but taking some profits could be a good idea. Along those lines precious metals are pretty cheap right now.

Seasonal Bag Changes:
Probably a good time to bring out your systems and take a look. Replace batteries, etc. Also add in seasonally appropriate clothing and gear. I did mine earlier this week and had some bad batteries in there.

Perfect is the Enemy of Good Enough and Problem Admiration

2018-09-01T19:04:00.000-07:00

I have had a couple of discussions where I hit a wall with guys. Good (internet) guys I know reasonably well. The topics were caches and bugging out. I think there are two major issues going on here.

The first issue is these guys are looking for a perfect answer. Perfect answers don't usually exist in situations with finite resources. Unlimited resources can solve pretty much any issue but that isn't reality for most of us.

Finding the perfect answer isn't realistic. There are inherently compromises which must be made. We have to find the best answer that we can. This means looking at where we are willing to cut corners or accept risk.

I am reminded of a time I was selling a used car. The paint was rough and so was the interior. The drive train was pretty good. Price was like $1,200. Some guy was looking at it and said "This, that and the other are wrong with it." to which I replied "Yeah and that's why it is this price."

It would be great to have the perfect set up. I would love to have a few Sarah Conner Terminator Caches, a dozen Jason Borne safety deposit boxes with cash and new ID's, 3 different passports under my real name and houses in each place. Hell, a jet with a pilot to take me between them would be nice too. Fleeing to my awesome compound in some paradise with everyone I really care about and some random hot chicks in my sweet jet Dan Bilzerian style sounds great. Why not? In fantasy land anything is possible.

The thing is that most of us sadly do not live in fantasy land. Being able to apply huge sums of money to problems is not a luxury most people, myself included, have. So what we need to do is realize that in a world of finite resources (money, time, etc) we aren't ever going to get a perfect solution. As our friend Commander Zero recently said "Preparedness is really about resource management in regards to risk reduction – we try to get the most for our money when we take steps to protect ourselves from future problems."

Second is the issue of problem admiration. Guys will see a problem and just look at the issues over and over. They keep staring at the problem. At some point you aren't going to get any new relevant information within the span of time you have to make a decision. Then you have to weigh the issue, pick a number and put your damn money onto the table.

Look at the problems you face. Understand that you have limited resources available in order to address them and that this inherently means you will have to make choices. Take your time. Unless your house is on fire or there is a mugger waving a knife in your face there is time to sleep on it. Do your research and think. You have time but not forever. At some point you will have to decide how to best use the resources you have and execute the plan.

This sort of thing isn't as catchy as talking about what the coolest survival knife is or the 12 items you need for a bug out bag. I know that. I know this type of thing doesn't get the comments and discussion of the "talk about cool gear and validate each others decisions" posts. Honestly I don't care. Selling stuff or making money isn't my goal here. I am trying to work through my own problems and help you all do the same. I hope you choose to use this stuff to help yourselves.

Get out of the problem admiration phase.

Bug Out Discussion Continued

2018-08-31T19:03:00.001-07:00

Replies to a recent conversation where I said "When war/ pestilence, etc come to your area GO SOMEWHERE ELSE! You don't need to be buying pallets of surplus razor wire, you need to make sure that your passports are current. ":
Pineslayer said...

I have to agree on the passport thing, but where are you going to go? Central or South America? Canada or Europe? Do they want you or can you get there when things go shitty?

Can you assimilate on a moments notice?

August 11, 2018 at 9:15 PM

Aesop said...

Pineslayer:

All good questions, but imagine asking them of yourself as a Jew in 1937 in Berlin. Then imagine asking yourself the same questions, in 1941.

Or as an Afrikaaner in Capetown. Yesterday.

It would certainly suck to be a socially awkward and barely literate Eastern European living in London in 1912.
But not when the alternative was third class passage to NY on the Titanic.

"Any port in a storm", and all that...

August 12, 2018 at 12:52 AM

Pineslayer said...

It does come down to the fight or flight, bug in/bug out debate. When you are threatened by over whelming forces the decision must be made. We are at a cross roads of sorts now. Let the Marxists take the country or over power them. We will all have to make that decision soon in my opinion

Ryan here: My thoughts are as follows.

Leaving your home temporarily because of imminent danger is an easy decision. Get out of the way of the fire/ hurricane/ riot. The idea of leaving for a longer period is harder. You might never get home. The thing is this is only really worth considering when staying home is going to get you killed or some other really bad outcome.

Think of it like you are in the kill zone of an ambush or right in front of a raging wildfire. Staying where you are is going to get you killed. You might not be sure where a safe place is but you know what place isn't! Get out of the really dangerous place right now! Worry about where else to go once you get away.

One thing I would say about America is that it is unique in a couple of ways. First it is a huge country. A massive event can make one area uninhabitable. Hurricane Katrina comes to mind. It may be that you can "bug out" to a few hundred miles away in Arkansas or Texas. The same could be said of a riot in Los Angeles or whatever. In a small country a regional event might mean you have to leave the country entirely but in the big awesome USA it doesn't necessarily mean that.

The other thing I would say is that if your concerns are political in the US the answer may be moving within the US. Things that might potentially happen in California, Illinois or New York aren't anywhere near as likely in say Texas, Idaho or Alabama.

Trust

2018-08-27T16:06:00.002-07:00

In None We Trust by Commander Zero

This post brings up some good points.

The first part is that we have to trust people. It is an inherent part of life. For functional reasons some things just plain require help. Ever try moving a gunsafe by yourself? Doesn't work so well. Also human relationships are part of life and trust is inevitably part of that.

Second trust has degrees. The amount it is reasonable to trust people depends on how close they are to you (including past trust related experiences), the risk involved and your available alternatives.

Along this line beyond direct degree measured in dollars or risk some people might be trustworthy about keeping a secret for one thing but its better they don't know something else. Maybe Bob can know that you smoke weed but he would freak out about something gun related. Tom on the other hand would probably help you make a home made SMG in his garage but it wouldn't be smart to let him know about your little horticultural project.

How do we decide the degree to which people are trustworthy? Past experiences such as helping each other,keeping secrets for you, returning items, loans being paid back on time, etc are a good one. If those experiences have not occurred authentically and a it seems like a person could fill a useful role it might be a good idea to test the waters with something small like a loan of an item or telling them something and asking them not to share it before you need their help.

What to do if people become untrustworthy is a question. Ideally by a combination of past experiences and maybe some intentional tests hopefully you can find out about their lack of trustworthiness without it being a major thing. However sometimes things happen. Also people can change or have their circumstances change.

What do we do to limit the risk of problems if someone becomes untrustworthy?

Most of the answer is before a potential issue.

The answer is compartmentalization. This stuff is mostly for intelligence and terrorist types. It works like this.Basically people know what they need to know and not other stuff. The whole picture is broken up into little parts so nobody, or as few people as practical, can possibly blow the whole thing.

Lets say the IRA is going to do a hit. People will only know the part they need to know. The person running the safe house will know some people are coming for awhile (or maybe not even know that). The guy bringing the guns will know to leave them at a certain dead drop between this time and that time. The guy picking up the guns will only know he is picking them up at a certain place around a certain time. The other safe house they go to after will only know their part, etc.

Applying this to survivalist stuff. Just keep your damn mouth shut about stuff unless there is a compelling reason not to. Bob your smoking buddy doesn't need to know you could equip a combat patrol. He just needs to know you are a good guy and happen to share a hobby. Tom who has helped you on a couple "projects" and with whom you have exchanged just in case foot lockers to store knows about your projects and the foot locker. He doesn't need to know about your other hobby, or the caches you have elsewhere.

Using compartmentalization limits the risk if any person, for whatever reason, becomes unreliable.

So those are my thoughts on that.

Making Hay While The Sun Shines and Financial Preparations

2018-08-23T19:19:00.000-07:00

Hey folks. I'm not dead. Been busy spending time with the kids and enjoying the wonderful albeit smoky PNW. Anyway things are getting back to normal now. I am not going to promise anything in terms of posting but it certainly is possible.

Gun people seem to have short memories and act like the idiots in the stock market. When there are solid buying opportunities to be had they don't seem interested. They can always order those mags or ammo next month. Those rifles are always available and maybe if they wait they will get a sale. Then something happens and they freak out. They end up paying a bunch more money for the same, or even lesser quality, stuff because they were foolish.

Some folks can't control things. I wasn't even old enough to be thinking about girls really when the 1994 AWB came into being so no way I could have squirreled away a couple sweet Chinese AKs and a bunch of mags/ ammo. So I couldn't have prepared for that. If you genuinely don't have the money because you have a young family that's life. However if you can do better you really should.

I am not trying to say you should make any crazy moves. Don't cash out your savings and buy PMAGs or something. Just look to fill your needs in a reasonable way when it is easy to do so. Last week I got 4x Glock 19 mags just because they were on sale. Need to order a few more soon.

Personally my biggest push is going to be getting my reserve of training ammo beefed up. I could stand to add to my training ammo stash. I am shooting more these days so it adds up. A couple cases of 9mm would go a long way.

Our buddy Commander Zero hit on finances today. Why people seem to want to worry about very unlikely end of the world events instead of more realistic ones has been bouncing around in my head lately. That is a post that will be up soon but anyway. It is way more likely that you will need a wad of cash, or the digital equivalent, than body armor and a NOD. In realistic situations you need money.

Trying to improve my situation there is a major effort I am undertaking. Thankfully my debt load is low. Less thankfully I could use some more savings and I don't own a home. Stuff to work on. Precious metal prices are low and that is worth thinking about. While not sexy putting another month or two of expenses away would go a long way towards giving me some options. As they say "its only an emergency if you don't have the money."

Also extra work means I can fund new toys. I am looking hard at a G34 for a gamer Glock and a semi automatic shotgun for 3 gun.

Various Thoughts on Preparedness

2018-08-10T20:41:00.001-07:00

First I reject the idea that you can only be prepared by taking super drastic life changing measures. I suppose what is drastic and life changing is relative though. If you live in NYC/ LA/ Chicago and have never shot, and certainly don't own a gun you might need to make some big changes. However for most people reading this; who probably live in a mid sized town or the burbs but not right in the middle of a major urban center and do own guns, you can get really prepared with minimal changes to your overall life.

Of course it depends on what you are preparing for. Being really blunt a lot of people are not preparing for realistic scenarios, they are preparing for survivalist doomer porn fantasies. The doomer porn fantasies they are preparing for happen to justify all of their decisions as being brilliant.

You should choose a lifestyle and area based on how you (and your family) want to live not on what some survivalist 'expert' says. By all means move to the hinterboonies to raise animals and grow a big garden, just do it because you want to!

Shaping your life based on the risk of a scenario that is to be blunt very unlikely is foolish.

The concept of diminishing returns is something we need to consider in preparedness and its camo wearing, maybe angry and racist, cousin surivalism. The way diminishing returns work is that essentially at some point you start getting less payoff for the investment. Often the initial payoff is really high in an area. At some point it drops considerably.

Put it like this. You decide to buy the wife/ GF/ whatever some flowers for no particular reason. For $20 you get a nice little bouquet in a color she likes at the grocery store. The wife/ GF/ whatever is happy. Say you order a $200 bouquet from a florist. The $200 bouquet is probably not going to get you a woman who is 10x happier than the $20 flowers.

Preparedness is sort of like that.

Lets say a person sees some risks and decides to get prepared. They get a couple weeks of shelf stable ready to eat (crackers, peanut butter, canned soup, poptarts, etc), a couple water jugs and a filter, a few boxes of batteries for their flashlights and some extra ammo for whatever guns they have. They take $1,000 cash out of savings and keep it at home. This person is now prepared for the vast majority, say 80% of events.

Say they take it a bit further, push the food to 2 months. Buy a military pattern rifle and a case of ammo. A generator for when the power goes out. Put a bit of money into silver. Get some bug out stuff together. Now they are ready for like 90% of events. Rough math says we are at a few thousand dollars here.

Getting ready for the other 10% of events is going to be a lot more expensive. It is also going to have significantly more impact on your normal life. The really funny part is that for the other 10% of events the preparations people are making are generally for the wrong thing.

When war/ pestilence, etc come to your area GO SOMEWHERE ELSE! You don't need to be buying pallets of surplus razor wire, you need to make sure that your passports are current.

Tab Clearing

2018-08-03T13:40:00.000-07:00

Expedient Field Gear Repairs by JC Dodge this article is excellent. Solid stuff to have on inventory or in an appropriate cache.

My only constructive input is that in this area an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. I learned this from an experienced guy (hard to find within the force in the early 00's) before my first deployment. Replace stuff, boots in particular, that is on the downslide and deploy with newly broken in stuff. Trying to get an extra couple months (of full time use) out of a pair of boots or a piece of load bearing kit is foolish. There are times to be frugal but this is not one of them.

Concealed Carry Holsters: Separating Good from Bad this article by Tamra Keel is pure gold. It really breaks down the issue at a level I never considered but find very relevant. Two relevant thoughts:

1- The mouth of the holster should be sufficiently stiff that you can easily reholster the gun. This tends to be an issue with thin IWB holsters that collapse under the belts pressure once the gun is removed.

2- Retention is a relative thing. Holsters should have sufficient retention for the tasks you will do and plausibly might do while wearing them. For example a pocket holster for my little Ruger LCP needs significantly less retention than a holster someone plans to use as a law enforcement duty holster or during airborne operations.

So I Did a Thing: Colt 1911

2018-07-31T19:11:00.000-07:00

I bought a Colt 1911.

Why, Honestly I just wanted one. Not a good reason for a major purchase but occasionally I can do something like that. In the grand scheme of things it wasn't a brand new car or heaven forbid a marriage. It was not a great allocation of resources and significantly complicates my logistics.

I got a holster, mag pouch and a few mags for it. Need to stock up on ammo and some spare parts.

10/22 Mags Still Available

2018-07-29T21:28:00.001-07:00

It looks like those 10/22 mags are still around but supplies are decreasing. If you want in on this deal its time to get out of the problem admiration phase.

http://www.commanderzero.com/?page_id=5366

Glocks and Various Gunny Thoughts

2018-07-28T18:58:00.001-07:00

I have decided to stick with Gen 3 and previous Glocks for the foreseeable future. The hassle of going to gen 5 would be significant. I might as well go with a whole other gun. If anything another gun would be easier in some ways.

Sig has some cool offerings but I want to wait till they are past the growing pains stage and reconsider. Also I want to get a set of Glocks squared away before I consider branching out.

Our buddy Peter found out today that his Glock 17 is a gen 1 and this worth some money. I hope he flips it into a pair of slightly newer Glocks. https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2018/07/a-vintage-glock-no-less.html?m=1

Commander Zero still has 10/22 mags for sale. Buy now or cry later.
http://www.commanderzero.com/?page_id=5366

Magapaloza at Commander Zeros Place

2018-07-27T21:00:00.000-07:00

Our buddy up in the beautiful frozen wasteland of Montana stumbled into a metric shit ton of magazines. He is selling 20 round Tapco AK mags for 10/100 delivered. That's right. That is a darn good deal. Those 20's are useful for keeping the gun loaded in say a bag or whatnot. I want some.

He also has Butler Creek 25rd 10/22 magazines! For those its running 10/$100 for steel lips and 14/$100 for the hotlips. Keep that .22 well fed with an order of these.

Personally I bought 10 of the Butler Creek steel lips.

If things weren't a bit tight (I'm fine its just been an expensive month.) at the moment I would have ordered 20 of both the AK mags and the 10/22 mags.

I have bought mags from our buddy CZ before. They ship quickly and are always as described. Also he is a like minded guy and we need to do better at supporting our own. This goes triple if they are actually engaging in actual commerce not being blegging moochers.

Mags are important. Without a magazine modern semi automatic firearms are shitty single shots. Most reliability issues with semi automatic weapons are magazine related. The way to fix magazine related reliability issues is by throwing away the shitty old one and replacing it with a new one. I stock mags deeper than most at 10 per pistol and 20 per rifle (minimum). Some folks like more and others like less.

The mid term elections are coming fast and not too far down the road will be another presidential election. It doesn't take a genius to see we will probably have some associated panic and all of that. Best that you, within reason based on your finances and other priorities, get squared away now. That is why I prioritized buying some 10/22 mags. One of those new Ruger 10/22 takedowns has been calling my name lately and it will need mags.

For full disclosure I received no compensation for this post. All the purchases I have made from our friend CZ have been at the same price offered to everyone else. I mention it because they are smoking deals on good stuff you all can use.

Anyway if you need 10/22 or AK mags this is a good chance to buy them. Buy now or risk crying later.

3 Thoughts on Use of Force

2018-07-27T14:35:00.000-07:00

Before starting this I am just a guy. I am not a lawyer or a cop or anything, just a guy who likes to share his experiences and thoughts on the internet. Consider this entertainment not legal advice. Consider yourself disclaimed.

-Actions have to depend on the overall situation. We can't think that every time X happens we will do Y. A classic X=Y, which I have heard at least one really big training name say, is "If they are in my house they are dead." That is ignorant. Maybe a drunk neighbor got confused and walked in the wrong door. Maybe an old person is confused and in the wrong place. Maybe some kid is sneaking in to fool around with your kid.

A great example of this is in combatives. I was in Cecil Burches Immediate Action Combatives class. We were doing standing Greco wrestling stuff. Arm drag to take back to 2 on 1. What to do after that was being talked. I said something like "Shouldn't I slam the guy on the ground and tap dance on his face?"

Two points came up immediately. First that won't work for everyone. I'm a healthy fairly strong guy with a little background in this stuff. Odds are I am going to be able to pull that off with the majority of opponents. Someone who is 5'6" 140 or deep in their golden years might not be able to do that.

Second is that response isn't appropriate for every situation. If a drunken relative is getting handsy or aggressive at a BBQ slamming them onto the ground then kicking the shit out of them would be overkill.

-Many problems, especially for men cuz we are macho and stupid, can be avoided by some basic social skills. "Excuse me, I'm sorry...." will get you out of a lot of stupid situations.

As always the "avoid stupid people, stupid places and stupid things."

A person who uses those two things together is going to avoid a lot of BS.

-Instead of 'Can I shoot them?' think 'Can I avoid shooting them?'. Knowing use of force rules and all that is great. They vary in subtle but significant ways. However if you approach a situation with "Can I avoid using force against this person?" you are probably going to be on the right track. This means if you can de escalate or leave or use a lower level of force like OC spray or hand to hand instead of guns.

Have the skills to be dangerous but apply common sense so you don't have to use them.

More .22 stuff

2018-07-26T07:02:00.001-07:00

On .22 mag. Maybe I didn't clearly state my opinion.

I said "Honestly I have never seen much point to this round. In rifles I have .22lr and if that isn't sufficient 5.56 or larger. No need for something in between."

What I should have said was "For me the upside of increased performance of the .22 mag cartridge (vs .22lr) does not merit the downside of additional logistical complications."

I am not saying it isn't a good round. .22 mag is a good round. What I am saying is that to me the downsides of adding another couple guns and in particular adding another cartridge are not merited. .22-250 is also a good round as well as .17 and .22 hornet. Stuff like this is how Mel Tappan (aside from a rich wife) ended up recommending that you should own a metric shit ton of different guns.

Our friend Peter made some interesting points.

"The .22 Magnum, as a handgun defensive round, rivals the .32 ACP in terms of energy, and has a flatter trajectory than the latter. Compare CCI's 40gr. HP .22WMR round (product code Maxi Mag #0024) with Federal's Hydra-Shok .32 ACP 65gr. JHP (product code P32HS1):

CCI: 40gr. bullet weight
1200 fps muzzle velocity from a 4" handgun barrel
= 128 fpe muzzle energy

FEDERAL: 65gr. bullet weight
925 fps muzzle velocity (barrel length not provided)
= 123 fpe muzzle energy

Out of a rifle barrel, the CCI load is much more effective, of course. I've used it for disabled shooters, and those who can't handle much in the way of recoil. Out of a lightweight carbine such as Keltec's CMR-30, it can provide a viable small game harvesting tool and personal defense cartridge out to 100-150 yards, given accuracy by the shooter.

If you're carrying a Keltec PMR-30 handgun, and a few magazines loaded with 25 rounds each (the 30-round claimed mag capacity is illusory, as rounds can dent under spring pressure if you try to load too many of them), that's a fairly potent handful of personal protection for low-recoil-tolerance shooters. I know how accurate I can be with a handgun, and I wouldn't feel undergunned with such a carry package. I could put 5 rounds apiece into 5 bad guys, and be confident that they'd do what was required. It's worth thinking about."

- Ryan here. Those little Keltec handguns seem cool. Setting aside that its a Keltech. That company makes a lot of lemons. They seem to have zero quality control relying on a return policy and that their market niche generally are not high round count type shooters.

Personally I don't see the benefits of .22 mag justifying adding it to my logistics. Other people can look at the same info and make a different decision. YMMV.

.22LR.

Peter wrote about this awhile back.
http://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2014/02/22lr-as-defensive-round.html

.22lr out of pistols isn't what you would really call a stopper. However it can be effective with proper shot placement. Since someone is going to say it yes .22lr pistols kill a lot of people. That is because a bunch of shitty pot metal pimp guns are made in that cartridge. Those guns are dirty cheap and a lot of them are made. They are common in social/ cultural communities where folks get shot a lot.

If I was going to carry a .22 handgun for defense it would be a revolver. This is because inherently rimfire cartridges are prone to failure. With a revolver you just pull the trigger again.

.22lr out of rifles is a different discussion. To paraphrase long time LEO Chuck Haggard "Every shooting I have been to where the weapon was a .22 rifle was a fatality." When asked if he thought that was the increased accuracy or the increased velocity (compared to a pistol) he said 'Yes."

If I was arming a new/ weak shooter a Ruger 10/22 with a 25 round magazine would be the go to, or at least on the short list. No meaningful recoil, the inherent point ability of a long gun and lots of bullets is a good combo. I wouldn't want to try to get down a hallway where someone (even a very inexperienced shooter) had a 10/22. If I was setting up a gun for this I would use a red dot type sight or a fixed 3-4 power scope.

As to carrying weapons or prioritizing in some sort of emergency where I had limited space. My thinking is as follows.

Realistic scenario (natural disaster, etc all):
-Centerfire pistol, concealable. For me this would be a Glock 19.
-Centerfire rifle, military pattern.

After that probably a .22. I guess my 10/22 since I don't currently have a .22 handgun. That S&W kit gun is high on my list of planned acquisitions.

For a non realistic scenario (red dawn, walking dead, etc) I thought about it and would stick with the same list.

I definitely see the benefit of owning .22's. I have one and plan to get a couple more.

I can see the logic in having a .22 pistol and maybe even carrying it. Lots of ammo is handy. However I would submit that if your goals are more scavenging/ hunting based a .22 that is going to be realistic for concealed carry may be questionable for said hunting. Shooting squirrels at 25+ yards with a 3" barreled .22 might be a hard go. The big 4-6" Ruger MK whatever, Browning Buckmark type .22's can fill that role but are pushing the envelope of realistic concealment. I think a .22 rifle fills that role much better. One of those guns in a backpack might work out better than say a 2" .22 revolver on your belt.

Anyway those are my thoughts on that. As always you all may see things differently.

Magic Number of Guns Discussion

2018-07-25T19:35:00.000-07:00

This post hit some points worth discussing. In no particular order.
-To Tim my thoughts on how much ammo/ mags/ etc to have are on the record.
http://www.totalsurvivalist.com/2018/06/combat-loads-mags-n-ammo-stashes.html

-Pineslayer, My biggest firearms expense this year was an order of spare parts. Good times.

-"Can you be too prepared?" I don't think so. However I do think you can misallocate finite resources. We only have so much money. So $500 spent on another Glock is $500 that's not in your emergency fund, or buying a sat phone or other things.

-Aesop, I look at caches more as redundancy and diversification than specifically for escape and evasion. Though spares at home help in some situations too. Personally I would probably have (presuming I had some multiples of useful guns) about half my guns at home and half caches in different locations. So if I had 10 sets of guns 5 would be at home and 5 would be spread around.

Yeah if things are bad enough that you need several rifles maybe a passport and a tube of gold coins is the better approach.

-Peter, Personally I would get the stuff squared away for one gun (or most of the way) before getting another. I do that stuff by rations. So like 1x Glock needs 10 mags and 500 rounds of HP ammo. Total cost is a consideration and in part why I lean towards 9mm Glocks.

As to moving stuff. I think we have to look at a couple angles. First I think the best way to avoid losing stuff to a sudden move is caching. Say I have 5 rifles/ pistols. I have 2 sets at my place, one at a friends cabin, one at the family farm and the last buried in the woods. I might lose one but it is unlikely that I loose them all. Second I think losing everything if you have to leave your primary residence is mostly a concern if you have everything at your house.

Your idea of having 3 sets seems pretty reasonable. Keeping the reserve set somewhere else is also doable. I definitely agree each gun needs its own stuff. This applies even if it is redundant (your second, third, etc of the same gun) firearm. Maybe the holster for Glock #4 doesn't need to be the most Gucci kit but it still needs a darn holster.

-I can't see people "bugging out" on foot with multiple long guns, period. I do like shotguns but more as a general purpose around the home/ farm kind of gun.

-.22lr. If I was adding a 3rd gun for myself a .22lr pistol would be a strong candidate.

-.22 mag. Honestly I have never seen much point to this round. In rifles I have .22lr and if that isn't sufficient 5.56 or larger. No need for something in between.

For caching it depends on the concept of use. For a minuteman cache a .22 is questionable. For a survival cache it is a very strong candidate.

The Magic Number by Commander Zero

2018-07-23T19:20:00.001-07:00

Having a number is important and our friend Commander Zero shared his:

10 AR's
10 Glock 9mm's
10 Remington 870's and
10 Ruger 10/22's

A number is inherently personal thing. We can try to come up with supporting work to justify it but at the end of the day I think that X is our magic number because it makes us happy.

The three big thoughts I have about this are A) Personally I would be more inclined to do a ratio of core guns to less essential guns. In this case I would say that you probably need more fighting guns like AR's and Glocks than Ruger 10/22's and 870's. I would probably do like 1x AR and Glock to maybe .5 of plinkers and shotguns. Ditto tiny pocket handguns and hunting rifles. So if you have 2 Glocks and AR's you would have 1 each shotgun and 10/22. YMMV. B) Focus less on guns than more holistically on systems. You don't need pistol #3, you need an urban cache near work. You don't need rifle and pistol #4, you need a red dawn kit up at grandpas place. Systems involve a bunch of other stuff beside just the guns. C) In figuring out your magic number it is probably relative to the places you can stash guns. At some point stashing another gun in the safe doesn't help much. Set up the place for the gun to go and then buy the gun (as well as the other stuff).

Thoughts?

Under Bed Storage

2018-07-22T19:44:00.001-07:00

In our recent discussion about totes the topic of storing stuff under a bed inevitably came up. Our friend Aesop wrote about it at some length.

I have experimented with having a big ole pile of survivalist stuff as the bed frame in a comedically 3.5-4 foot high bed. A couple years ago I tried the old 'put the bed frame up on stuff" to lift it thing. That worked ok, till the first time I had 'company' over and it slipped off the supports.

At this point in my life I am not really interested in sorta working rigged up solutions. For under bed storage to work you need to be able to easily access the stuff (which means said stuff can't be the support for the bed) by sliding it in/ out. Also the support needs to be stable. Rolling over in the middle of the night (alone or not) and having your bed fall down is not enjoyable.

I ended up purchasing a new bed frame in support of this effort. It should have sufficient clearance for the totes I recently purchased. Hopefully this will be an easy answer to the problem at hand. It should also, when combined with a bed skirt, provide a normal modern look.

If/ when I have proofed this setup I will probably talk about it some more.

Holy Totes- Peter to the Rescue!

2018-07-20T21:31:00.001-07:00

Our friend Peter gave an excellent answer to my question about totes. In fact he wrote a whole post about this. They looked promising and I went down to home depot to check it out. They seemed solid and well designed. For $7 and change a pop I figured why not give it a try.

So I got 6 of them in the size (I think 17 gallon, roughly 2.5 feet by 18 in x 12 in). Size wise I guessed just right. They fit well in my vehicle and with the shelving I already have. That was a lucky happy accident. The bug out stuff will fill 3-4 of them. I plan to get a few more down the road if they work out.

Aesop and Pineslayer also made good points. The Rubbermaid roughneck type totes work. They are durable and perform as designed. They are also regrettably to tall for what I want. I also agree the sterelite el cheapo ones are crap. The ones I have will get replaced, if through attrition.

Totes are a funny thing. They are one of those things that in my head are expensive (and some of the fancy ones like Pelican/ Hardigg, are hundreds of dollars a piece) but really aren't. I will probably buy another dozen over the next few months as part of my efforts to get the stuff associated with preparedness under control.

One thing I plan to do is get a bed which has space for totes underneath. I need a new mattress anyway and a bed frame which is designed for 18" of space underneath will let me keep stuff under there. This isn't strictly necessary now but it would be a benefit. Also down the road I may have some space constraints and it could be important.

Anyway thanks guys. Since this place is no longer monetized one of the biggest ways it brings value to my life is that when I have a question, odds are decent one of you has the answer. Thanks again.

Totes- What’s Your Favorite?

2018-07-19T21:06:00.002-07:00

I am looking at buying some totes for storing our camping and bug out stuff. I use pelican cases for particularly fragile/ valuable stuff. Hardigg cases are nice and I have my eye on one for the genny. Need some more general totes though. Probably dimensionally about 17-18 inches high max. Big enough to hold longer (say 2 foot) items but not so big that when normally loaded they would become a 2 man loft. I’m thinking the Rubbermaid Action Packer is the way to go but they are a bit spendy. I’m fairly flexible but want good durable totes with lids that stay on better than the ‘whatevers At Walmart’ brand.

Anyway I am writing this to get your thoughts. What kind of totes are you currently using? What do you like about them?

AR/ Glock/ AK Field Repair Kits

2018-07-17T17:01:00.000-07:00

My goal is to have a fairy small (paperback book sized) that could live in a ruck or range bag. The desired endstate is to be able to fix most likely problems that will occur in the field. It would be for 1x rifle and 1x pistol. I am going to do this for The AR and Glock primarily but also the AK. Lists follow:

AR
Complete bolt
All small parts that go on BCG (firing pin, firing pin retaining pin, etc)
Trigger
Hammer
Hammer spring
Pin that holds trigger/ hammer in

Glock
Complete striker assembly
Trigger spring
Connector
Guide rod
Glock punch

AK
Complete bolt
Hammer spring

If someone has input that is welcome. In particular if someone has thoughts on a comparable kit for a 1911 that would be cool.

RE: Maybe I Haven't Been Clear by Aesop

2018-07-14T11:27:00.001-07:00

Our friend Aesop wrote an interesting post. I read it and came to a very different conclusion than I believe he was getting at. I was reminded about something our friend Commander Zero said long ago. What is the very first rule of surviving a disaster?

Don't Be There!

Some disasters, particularly hurricanes, are fairly predictable inside 2-3 days. Lots of riots have a lead up time. If a disaster is coming go somewhere else.

There are pros and cons to living in different areas. However once you factor in that the two supposed survivalist havens are overdue for massive events, volcanic and seismic respectively, the intellectually honest are a but easier going on folks living in other areas. Also the inland PNW has real fire issues. What I am getting at is that wherever you live something could happen that makes it untenable.

Inevitably someone will say "Don't be a refugee" or "I've seen 'The Road'".

First of all dial the drama down. By far the realistic threats that face us are localized or regional. Stop worrying about some doomer porn scenario. Driving the family hauler to a Best Western 2 towns over is the realistic situation for most of these 'refugees'. Second even in a full on unlikely situation obviously one does not choose to become a refugee because it sounds like fun. One chooses to become a refugee because it seems like what's at home is even less fun.

Natural disasters are self explanatory. If a huge armed mob is killing everyone who looks like you and they are one town over you should pack quickly then drive in the opposite direction. Unless you have terminal cancer and want the mob to kill you in a blaze of glory the answer is to leave. Personally I would rather lose my stuff then shoot some guys who don't matter anyway, have them shoot me, and then terrible things happen to my family.

The point is that if things get bad you take your .45 and wad of cash then go somewhere else. Somewhere less disastery. People have some fantasy of bug out camping or escape and evasion or whatever. In reality a cheap motel room 250 miles the other direction of the disaster is usually the answer.

It is good to have supplies and plans and all that. Many situations are solved by just staying home. However if nuclear aids meteors are scheduled to land on your house in a day you should spend most of that day getting away from your house. Having plans to bring some survival gear, guns in case things get sporting, etc is important. However the most important part of that survival kit will be the visa that buys the motel room and pizza. Being honest your bug out bag could be a suitcase or a Rubbermaid tote. Discussion of whether the rifle that will sit in the corner by your bed should be an AKM or AR is fun, we all like guns, but probably not the most important thing to focus on.

The point here is that we should, with reason, try to avoid being in areas where we will face disasters. When faced by disasters vote with your legs and get the heck out. To paraphrase Tamra "Don't be there, so you don't have to do that."

Most of the time the answer is to stay home, except when it is not. When it is time to leave better to go a week early than try to go a day late.

RE: Kim Du Toits Eucalyptus Now

2018-07-13T20:48:00.002-07:00

Kim Du Toit linked to a post some guy wrote on SHTF rifles where he compared an AR, AK, 30-30 and .308 bolt gun in a series of not necessarily deeply thought out but overall fine tests. Honestly to this as well as the tests the guy did I am fairly ambivalent. Not ambivalent because I dislike their ideas or them, actually the opposite, but ambivalent because there is inherent subjectivity in all of our decisions. For a rifle designed to use against two legged threats a sane person will choose some form of semi automatic magazine fed rifle. The AR-15 or AKM pattern rifles are the most prevalent and affordable examples in the modern US. Both have pros and cons but they are far closer than the silly arguing folks would ever admit. Honesty just get the one you prefer, either one should serve you fine. The discussion got interesting.

Kim's preference for the AKM is mentioned and I find no reason to argue against his thinking. He also mentioned that he couldn't imagine a scenario where he carried more than 2x 20 round magazines. [I'm not sure if he was counting the one in the gun or meant a loaded gun and 2x20r reloads.] This got me thinking about load outs. My civilian set up is as follows:

Pistol belt with 2x 30rd AR mags and 1x glock mag. Also a medical kit. This sits near my bed and the AR. While not exactly readily concealable (it has a Safariland holster for a Glock with a light on it) this set up is fairly low profile. Also it is light enough I could reasonably see myself wearing it for prolonged periods of time. I have a hard time seeing a situation where Ryan the boring civilian needs more than that. Still I do have a chest rig which has 4x AR mags, 1x Glock mag and some other stuff on it that could be added. More likely I could see using one or the other, not both, but the capability is there. If people want I can do photos and talk about these set ups down the road.

Anyway if we are being even semi realistic and looking at actual events that happen not some Red Dawn fantasy stuff I think 3 mags is going to be plenty. Honestly probably 2.5 more mags than I need but hey, things happen. For me 3 total mags is a balance between having enough ammo and avoiding unnecessary weight which I am very unlikely to need. In the very unlikely event I am legitimately going to need to carry more ammo than that I'll likely see it coming and certainly have the 20 minutes to dig around in the basement, pull out a 7-8 mag chest rig from work and load mags for it. YMMV.

Also the comments section inevitably had someone say a rifle had no role in an SHTF situation because you would be shot or arrested for carrying it around. While not wrong this is a pretty narrow issue. Things would have to break pretty bad for folks to be walking around town with long guns all the time. If walking around is a concern I would have a plan to conceal my rifle. An SBR or AK with a folding stock in an el cheapo lawn chair bag strapped to a backpack is fairly discrete.

At the same time long guns, and I would submit (profile/ image aside) military pattern rifles are king here, can definitely have a role in some realistic situations. From Roof Koreans to the good ole You Loot We Shoot Boys a bunch of dudes watching their homes/ businesses with long guns definitely says "pick someone else" to bad guys.