Tour de France Commentary

Tour of Utah 2015 - a post with pictures, including several Tour de France veterans

2015-08-09T21:13:00.001-07:00

I was able to watch Stage 5 (out of 7) of the 2015 Tour of Utah, and captured the following pictures:

Frank Schleck of Tour de France fame (red mark on helmet) and his Trek teammates on a warm-up ride before the start of the race.

The start, from behind the State Capitol building, and then turning onto Gravity Hill, heading north up City Creek and around Memory Grove.

A breakaway group of 8 riders escaped early in the first lap.

Here the peloton rounds the corner coming out of City Creek onto 11th Avenue. Notice the yellow jersey worn by Jure Kocjan (SmartStop) near right edge of photo. Also, Frank Schleck (Trek) near middle of photo.

The breakaway maintains its lead on the second lap, as they head into the city center on South Temple Street.

The peloton keeps the escapees close as they race up South Temple in hot pursuit.

In a flash, they have raced past my position as they near the next turn (State Street). Notice the Beneficial Office Tower in the background.

The gargoyles on the Cathedral of the Madeleine have the "best seat in the house."

As they approach the end of each lap, they must climb the insanely steep streets of the "Marmalade District." Did you recognize Frank Schleck again (left)?

The finish line is the green banner across the street in the distance, at the top of 500 North. At this point, the riders were about to finish the 5th of 7 laps.

Just prior to the start of the final 8-mile lap, Natnael Berhane (MTN Qhubeka), national champion from Eritrea, escaped the peloton for a daring solo attempt to win the stage. He built his lead to a maximum of 25 seconds, but was finally caught on the steep climb near the finish.

Michael Woods is shown here fighting to the finish line for the stage victory. With a 10-second bonus for first place, and his 5-second margin over Jure Kocjan, Woods captured the yellow jersey, which he will wear for Stage 6 on Saturday. It was an exciting race. And then, during the awards ceremony, a massive storm front roared through and blew down the finish line truss, sending one spectator to the hospital, and scattering everyone else.

The following day (Stage 6), Michael Dombrowski (Cannondale-Garmin) won the "Queen Stage" at the summit of Snowbird, and took over the Yellow Jersey, which he defended successfully in the final Stage 7 to Park City on Sunday.

Other notable cyclists in this year's Tour of Utah included Tayler Phinney, a crowd favorite because of his come back from serious injuries, and a veteran of the grand tours in Spain and Italy.

Janez Brajkovic TDF veteran climber (no photo available), and Matt Goss (MTN Qhubeka, No. 48), a veteran TDF sprinter and Green Jersey rival of Peter Sagan's:

Alex Howes (Cannondale Garmin), former World record holder for the one-hour speed record:

And finally, Chris Horner (Airgas Safeway No. 141), the patriarch of American Tour de France cyclists still competing.

Wrap-up for 2015 Tour de France

2015-07-26T23:42:00.000-07:00

If you were holding your breath for my blog posts these last few days, I apologize. I was out of town on a fun little road trip. If you are serious about the Tour, you already know what happened. But, just for the record, here is my report.

Three of the four mountain stages in the Alps were won by underdogs, and two of those by French cyclists. Great for the French national morale! French riders Romain Bardet (AG2R) and Pierre Rolland (Europcar) finished 1 & 2 in Stage 18. Both had hoped for high GC placements, but suffered disappointments in the early weeks. So, this was sweet redemption for both of them – especially for Bardet.

Vincenzo Nibali (Astana) overcame three weeks of frustration by winning Stage 19 and making up almost 2 minutes of his deficit to Chris Froome (Sky). This moved him from 7^th place to 4^th, and somewhat restored his wounded prestige as defending champion. Nairo Quintana (Movistar) made up 30 seconds, but remained in 2^nd place overall.

Another French hopeful, Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) won the Stage 20 race to l’Alpe d’Huez, again bringing honor to France, and somewhat redeeming his frustrating Tour. Quintana knocked off another 1:18 from his deficit to Froome, but still trailed the Yellow Jersey by more than a minute.

The ride to Paris for the final stage (No. 21) followed the normal pattern of being mostly ceremonial. Because of rain on the course early, the judges stopped the clock on the first lap around the Champs Elysée, with everyone receiving the same time. The only remaining drama would be the sprint for the stage win 7 or 8 laps later. André Greipel (Lotto-Soudal) powered to the line for his 4^th stage win of this year’s Tour. (And to think that I had accidentally reported him absent from the start of the Tour because of illness! Could my blunder have acted as a reverse jinx?) Greipel enjoyed the level of success I had predicted for Mark Cavendish (Etixx-Quickstep) who only won one stage.

The major prize winners were: Yellow Jersey (General Classification) Chris Froome (Sky), his second time as grand winner of the Tour. 2^nd place Nairo Quintana (Movistar), at -1:12. 3^rd Place Alejandro Valverde (Movistar), at -5:25 – didn’t I say to not overlook the “other Spaniard?” 4^th Place Vncenzo Nibali (Astana), at -8:36 – defending champion from 2014. 5^th Place Alberto Contador (Tinkoff-Saxo), at -9:48 – tough Tour for one of the Big Four favorites.

White Jersey (Young Rider) Nairo Quintana.

Green Jersey (Sprinter Points) Peter Sagan (fourth year in a row!)

Polka-Dot Jersey (King of Mountains) Chris Froome – one mountain stage win, and several close finishes, and the points kept adding up.

Best Team: Movistar – Quintana and Valverde consistently finishing near the front, along with one or more of their domestiques.

Super Combative Romain Bardet (AG2R).

Lanterne Rouge (last place) Sébastien Chavenel (FDJ) – almost 5 hours cumulative behind the winning time of Chris Froome.

Where did Froome win the race? I predicted that the time trials would not be decisive; and they were not. However, those two stages did account for between 9 and 35 seconds of Froome’s advantage over the other four top riders. The two most decisive stages for Froome were Stage 2 and Stage 10. In Stage 2, crosswinds near the coast of Holland split the peloton and gave Froome a 1:28 advantage over Quintana, Valverde and Nibali. (This should have been a flat stage for a sprint finish, and no time differentials for the GC boys.) In Stage 10 – the first climbing stage in the Pyrénées – Froome, with a giant effort from his Team Sky helpers, attacked the peloton, won the stage, and scored time gains of between one and ten minutes on his four top rivals. The gains on those two stages alone exceeded any gains by his rivals in all of the other stages. There were nine stages (out of 21) where all of the top 5 finished with the same time. In the other 12 stages the rivals mostly lost time (sometimes a little, sometimes a lot). Quintana only gained time in two stages – a total of 1:50, not enough to overcome Froome’s gains just in Stages 2 and 10. Valverde only gained time in two stages – a total of only 3 seconds. Nibali gained time in 3 stages (including a stage win) – a total of 2:19, but he had already lost over 4 minutes just in Stage 10. Contador often matched the time of Froome, but did not beat Froome’s time in even one stage. You can’t win the Tour if you never have even one stage where you beat your top rival. All in all, it was a very dominating win for Froome and Team Sky.

Au revoir tout le monde. Et merci d’avoir visité mon blog.

Since the Tour de France always ends in Paris, here are some photos from there. A different view than normal of the Eiffel Tower.

The Mona Lisa, inside the Louvre Museum.

Notre Dame Cathedral, taken from a bateau mouche floating up the Seine River.

Stage 20 included a pass through the small town of Bourg D'Oissans, at the base of the climb to l'Alpe d'Huez. This is where we rented bikes when our family did our own version of the Tour de France in 2011.

About half-way up the climb to l'Alpe d'Huez, the road curves past the little church at "Dutch Corner" - so named because of all the crazy Dutch fans who commandeer this corner each year for the Tour de France. Here we see our very own Matt Jensen climbing up out of Dutch Corner. Half-way there Matt! Keep on pumping!

Stage 17 – Another “Little Guy” Achieves Stage-Win Glory.

2015-07-22T17:01:00.003-07:00

These mountain stages provide opportunities for the “little guys” in the Tour. If they can join a breakaway, and then somehow execute an attack on their companions, they just might steal a stage victory and write their names into the history books. This was the happy outcome today for German Simon Geschke (Giant-Alpecin). For only his third professional stage win, and first time in a major tour, Geschke attacked the breakaway before the summit of the 2^nd-to-last climb, and then held on to win high in the Alps. He won a 5,000 Euro bonus at the top of the highest climb, and also captured the Most Aggressive prize for two additional bursts of glory. American Andrew Talansky (Cannondale-Garmin) raced hard to erase Geschke’s 1:30 lead, but fell short by 32 seconds for second place.

The GC boys felt no threat from the breakaway, and staged their own separate race as much as ten minutes behind the stage leaders. First, came shocking news that Tejay Van Garderen had abandoned with 70 Km to go because of illness. Turns out he has been nursing a cold which worsened during the rest day. Today, he had headaches and no energy, and could not keep up with the pace of the peloton. There goes his dream of a podium finish!

The rest of the GC hopefuls stayed with Froome, attacking without success. Quintana beat Froome to the line, but gained no time. All the others previously in the top ten lost up to 2 minutes. Contador took a fall on a bumpy part of the last steep descent, and could not catch up to the Froome group to contest the finish. Froome’s Yellow Jersey is looking more and more safe, with only three more mountain stages where he might be challenged, and with he and his team showing no signs of weakness.

Matthias Frank (IAM), part of the breakaway, gained more than 5 minutes and moved into 8^th place, but is still almost 9 minutes behind Froome. Talansky also moved up five places and gained almost 7 minutes, but is still only in 12^th place with a deficit of over 16 minutes.

Peter Sagan again joined the breakaway and collected an additional 15 points to raise his Green Jersey lead to over 100 points. In addition to the Yellow Jersey, Froome appears to have locked up the Polka-Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) as well. Quintana has an insurmountable lead for the White Jersey (Young Rider).

With all the big prizes decided in advance, these final stages will be animated by the “little guys” trying to get a taste of glory. So, the stages will be fun to watch, but there is no more suspense on the big prizes.

This is what these Tour de France climbs are like - long and steep! Ashley Jensen climbs Mt. Ventoux (May 2011).

Aaron & Nan Kennard working to overtake two other riders on Mt. Venoux (May 2011).

Nan is having all together too much fun! She is supposed to be suffering on this climb, but it doesn't even faze her! (Mt. Ventoux, May 2011).

Stage 16 – Climbing Towards the Alps.

2015-07-21T09:36:00.001-07:00

As predicted, Peter Sagan (Tinkoff-Saxo) joined the breakaway again in Stage 16, and collected the maximum points (20) in the intermediate sprint, with André Greipel nowhere to be seen. Then, for “something audacious,” Sagan led the breakaway group throughout the day in a determined search for his first stage victory. With no help from his breakaway companions, Sagan was forced to set the pace all day, and to lead the group in reeling in any and all attackers. About 3 Km from the summit of the final climb Spaniard Ruben Plaza (Lampre) succeeded in surging ahead and forged a 55-second lead over the Sagan group at the summit. Sagan recouped 25 seconds with a furious chase down the steep 12-Km descent to the finish, but again finished in second place – his fifth second in this Tour. Plaza collected his first ever TDF stage win.

Sagan collected 25 more sprint points – 45 total for the day, and now leads Greipel for the Green Jersey by an insurmountable 89 points. Sagan was also awarded the Most Combative prize for the second day in a row. Team owner Oleg Tinkov was whining before the Tour started that he wanted to cut Sagan’s salary for not winning enough races earlier in the season. (Apparently Sagan’s winning the overall plus a couple of stages in the Tour of California was not sufficient.) Sagan has finished in the top 5 for ten of the sixteen stages so far this Tour, and has been one of the most exciting racers in the first two weeks. I wonder if Mr. Tinkov feels like he is getting his money's worth yet?

Oh, by the way, there was another race going on at the back of Stage 16 – the Yellow Jersey competition and the rest of the peloton. As usual, Chris Froome and his Team Sky posse maintained law and order, quelling any and all uprisings. Only Vincenzo Nibali (Astana) scored any time gain with a late attack that netted 28 seconds, but left him still in 8^th place with a deficit of 7:49. Geraint Thomas (Sky) lost 38 seconds, because of a spectacular crash caused by Warren Barguil (Giant-Alpecin). After head-butting a telephone pole and landing in the bushes, Thomas miraculously re-mounted his bike and salvaged his 6^th place position. A bit of re-shuffling occurred in the bottom half of the top-ten, but nothing worthy of a headline.

Stage 16 climbed through the region known as the Drôme and passed not far from the village of Lus la Croix Haute, where we found this quaint old wagon.

This view shows the village of Lus la Croix Haute with the Alps in the background. The Alps will host the next stages of the Tour de France.

Along the road to Gap (site of the Stage 16 finish) you will pass dozens of random villages, such as this one.

We even found the road to Beaumugne, made famous by Jean Giono's wonderful novel, "Un de Beaumugne." I really wanted to visit the village, but the road quickly deteriorated to a narrow, un-paved track, and I agreed to turn around for the sake of saving our marriage. Good decision!

Stage 15 – Predictable Sprinter Stage.

2015-07-19T15:08:00.002-07:00

As predicted, the stage into Valence had an early breakaway group. Peter Sagan animated the attack and took maximum points at the intermediate sprint, leaving André Greiple to fight for mop-up points. 15-point advantage to Sagan to pad his Green Jersey lead.

Also, as predicted, the sprinters’ teams pushed the pace of the peloton, and captured the attackers well before the finish. However, because the first part of the stage was hilly, Mark Cavendish fell behind the peloton, and therefore missed out on the sprint finale.

The usual suspects (minus Cavendish) lined up for the final sprint, and André Greipel (Lotto-Soudal) stormed across the line for his third stage win in this year’s Tour. John Degenkolb (Giant-Alpecin) took 2^nd, followed closely by Alexander Kristoff (Katusha) 3^rd, Peter Sagan (Tinkoff-Saxo) 4^th and Edvald Boasson Hagen (MTN-Qhubeka) 5^th. The peloton was so compact that 64 riders were given the same time as Greipel, including all the GC contenders. So no change in the GC standings (again, as predicted).

Sagan was awarded the Most Combative prize today for his efforts in the breakaway, and at the finish line.

With premium points for the stage victory, Greipel outscored Sagan at the line, for a net gain on the day of 17 points. This still leaves Sagan with a 44-point lead for the Green Jersey. Sagan is much more likely than Greipel to score intermediate sprint points in the next five stages which all have substantial climbs before the sprint. If Sagan is shepherding Contador near the end of any of those stages in the Alps, he could also harvest some points at the finish. Greipel will be lucky to finish those stages at all. Let’s assume Sagan can add another 27 points to his lead during the next five stages – not beyond possible. That would mean that even if Greiple scored a 70-point shut-out over Sagan in the final stage to Paris (impossible!), Sagan would still win the Green Jersey. Of course we can’t crown him King of Sprinters yet – he has to still finish the Tour – but Sagan in Green is now a foregone conclusion. Yet, he’s still unsatisfied – he desperately wants a stage win. He will be riding in support of Contador, all this coming week, but don’t be surprised if Sagan tries something audacious in the mountains to steal that elusive stage win.

Here's an interesting question: Would Sagan trade the Green Jersey for Greipel's three stage wins?

Today's stage finished in Valence, a city on the Rhône River south of Lyon. This is the brand-new LDS (Mormon) chapel in Valence. When I was there almost 50 years ago, the tiny branch met in a small converted store-front, with the missionaries' apartment in the back. That little branch is now a vibrant, growing ward, part of the Lyon Stake.

Elisse and Ariel Davis, riding the Lyon public bicycles through the Croix Rousse tunnel. November, 2014.

In anticipation of the climbing stages coming up this week, here are some photos of cyclists struggling up the very steep Second King during the recent Three Kings Cycling Event sponsored by North Salt Lake. (June 2015.)

Stage 14 – Glory to the Underdogs!

2015-07-18T10:16:00.004-07:00

As suggested in my previous post, Stage 14 presented an opportunity for a bit of glory for lesser-known riders and teams. It also favored Peter Sagan in his quest for a fourth consecutive Green Jersey. And finally, Chris Froome was indeed strong enough to counter any attacks by his nearest rivals.

Breakaway Succeeds: A large breakaway formed early with non-GC riders from many teams. Peter Sagan was the only top Green Jersey contender to make it into the lead pack. He made sure to win the intermediate sprint (20) points to create more separation between himself and André Greipel for the Green Jersey. Back in the main peloton, Team Sky set the pace with no concern for catching the breakaway, so the attackers approached the finish with a comfortable 5-minute lead. The lead pack was paced most of the day by several FDJ riders hoping to set up Thibaut Pinot for the stage win. He was a pre-tour favorite among French riders for GC glory, but had suffered bad luck on most of the early stages and was already about 35 minutes behind Froome. A victory here would be solace and a bit of redemption for Pinot, even though it would not revive his GC hopes.

As the leaders approached the finish, Michal Golas (Etixx-Quickstep) launched the first attack and held a promising lead until the final two climbs. Then, on the climb he was caught by Kristijan Koren (Cannondale-Garmin). They worked together in the lead until the final climb. At that point, Romain Bardet (AG2R) – another pre-race French favorite with early-stage hard luck similar to Pinot’s – overtook them and led the race for the finish. Golas & Koren ran out of gas and faded. Pinot clawed his way back toward Bardet, as did Rigoberto Uran (Etixx-Quickstep). Sagan had been unable to match the climbing speed of the leaders, but kept a strong and steady pace to remain near the front. Just as they all neared the top of the final climb, Stephen Cummings (MTN-Qhubeka) came streaking up from the pack and overtook Pinot, Uran and Bardet. He passed them without ever joining forces with them and accelerated down the flat airport runway 1.5 Km to the finish. The others all sprinted in vain to catch him.

So, the wild-card team MTN-Qhubeka snagged the Stage win and another day of glory for the “little guys.” (Remember the emotional thrill for the team, for Africa and for Eritrea when Daniel Teklehaimanot wore the Polka-Dot Jersey several days for MTN-Qhubeka?) The timing was perfect, because today is a day of special celebration in South Africa commemorating the birthday of the late national reconciliation hero Nelson Mandela.

Even the also-rans had things to cheer about. Bardet and Pinot each enjoyed a measure of redemption as they erased more than four minutes from their prior GC deficits, and moved up several spots on the GC standings. They’re still too far back to contend for the top prize, but they restored their pride by showing strength and courage. Peter Sagan was too far back (just 29 seconds) to contest the sprint for the stage win, but he added another 17 points to his Green Jersey total. He now leads Greipel by 61 points.

Yellow Jersey Peloton arrives at 4:15 behind. Meanwhile back at the ranch (in the main peloton): Chris Froome and Team Sky set the pace most of the day in the peloton. On the final climb Nairo Quintana (Movistar) jumped ahead of Froome. Foome stayed calm and kept a steady pace and gradually closed the gap. Valverde and Contador tried to attack without success. Van Garderen and Nibali at first kept pace with Froome, but eventually started to fall back. Quintana needed a 17-second advantage in the stage in order to overtake Van Garderen for 2^nd place, so he pressed on with his attack. As they neared the top of the final climb, Froome caught Quintana, with a small separation behind him to Valverde and Contador, and then additional space back to Nibali and Van Garderen. Quintana sprinted down the runway toward the finish with Froome on his wheel, until Froome swung out and accelerated the last 100 meters for a one-second advantage. Froome had matched his attackers once again, and padded his lead by between one and 51 seconds over everyone in the GC top ten. Quintana (2^nd) switched places with Van Garderen (3^rd); Contador (5^th) switched with Geraint Thomas (6^th); and Nibali (8^th) switched with Gallopin (9^th). Only Bardet and Pinot (among top-20 GC boys) gained time on Froome, but they are still 13 and 30 minutes behind respectively.

Tomorrow’s Stage: Tomorrow’s Stage 15 is hilly at the beginning, but downhill or flat for the final 57 Km. Not likely any shakeup of the GC standings. If the sprint teams have their way, it will end in a bunch sprint in Valence. One of the last chances for Cavendish, Kristoff, and other sprinters for a stage win. Greipel will be going for stage win number three. Expect Sagan to be near the front for both the intermediate sprint and the finish. He still wants to win his first TDF stage since 2013; and he will not want to see any erosion of his Green Jersey points lead. The only fly in that ointment would be a successful breakaway. All the “little guys” and their teams will be motivated to make the escape, but the sprinters’ teams will almost certainly chase them down. The GC teams will not care about chasing the breakaway, but they will ride near the front of the peloton for safety, not for victory.

This is about what a bunch sprint looks like as they prepare to attack the finish line. At 60 Km/hour, it's not for the faint-hearted! (Tour of Utah 2010.)

Famous Tour de France TV commentator (and former TDF racer) Bob Roll, in the announcers' booth at the 2010 Tour of Utah. He's as much a fan favorite as the riders are.

Friday Stage 13 Unlucky for Three Escapees

2015-07-17T20:14:00.002-07:00

Thomas De Gendt (Lotto-Soudal), Cyril Gautier (Europcar) and Wilco Kelderman (LottoNL-Jumbo) worked so hard to lead Stage 13 for 198 Km, only to be swamped in the last 300 meters by the wave of sprinters and GC favorites at the head of the peloton. But Greg Van Avermaet (BMC) will always consider this as his “lucky day” as he out-sprinted Peter Sagan for the stage win – redeeming himself from a long string of near-misses. Sagan continues his own frustrating string of close finishes at the Tour. Despite winning the Green Jersey for three years in a row, his last stage win at the TDF was in 2013. Still, Sagan’s 2^nd place finish today increased his Green Jersey lead to 24 points over André Greipel.

The top 10 GC contenders saw no change in their standings or their time gaps. The next five lost more time, and two of them fell out of the top 15.

Tomorrow’s stage to Mende goes through a very remote part of France, including parts of the Cévennes wilderness. (Memorialized by Robert Louis Stevenson in his “Travels With a Donkey,” in which he recounts his invention of the sleeping bag.) It features four categorized climbs, including a 4.5-Km category 2 finish. Probably not suitable for any of the sprinters – except maybe Sagan. (Will he finally achieve his stage victory?) It presents an opportunity for a successful breakaway – glory for lesser-known riders and teams. It also offers attacking possibilities for GC contenders, but Team Sky and Froome should be strong enough to counter any such attacks. We will see if this stage provides any fireworks – 4 days after Bastille Day.

Mende, the finishing town for Stage 14 is not far from the famous Pont du Gard - 2,000-year-old Roman aquaduct. Well worth a visit if you're in the area.

Stage 14 will pass this Viaduct at Millau. Will there be a crosswind? Are you afraid of heights? Luckily for the riders of the Tour, they won't have those issues to worry about - the course takes them under the viaduct, not over it.

Here is our own "Yellow Jersey" Jonah by the waterfall. If you stretch your imagination, you can picture him in the Gorges du Tarn, along the route of tomorrow's Tour de France Stage 14.

Or here is our "Yellow Jersey" Jonah in the forests of the Cévennes.

Stage 12 – End of Pyrénées, Froome still in Yellow

2015-07-17T07:26:00.001-07:00

Chris Froome used the strength of his teammates – especially Richie Porte and Geraint Thomas to preserve his hold on the Yellow Jersey as the Tour concluded its visit to the Pyrénées. During the final climb to the Plateau de Beille, most of his GC challengers launched attacks, but the Sky formation refused to panic, kept their steady pace and methodically reeled them in one after the other. Attackers included Nibali, Contador, Quintana and Valverde, some of them multiple times. Tejay Van Garderen saw the futility of attacking, and chose instead to protect his 2^nd place standing by just riding in the slipstream of Froome and the Sky train. At the very last minute Valverde attacked at the line and realized a one-second advantage over Froome, but it makes no difference since he is almost three minutes behind.

Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) won the stage, having distanced his breakaway companions. This is his second stage win, but he is not a threat for the Yellow Jersey.

Peter Sagan still wears the Green Jersey, but he conceded a few points to André Greipel at the intermediate sprint.

Error Correction: I mistakenly reported that Lars Boom (Astana) withdrew because of cancer. He did withdraw, but it was because of a persistent fever. It was Ivan Basso (Tinkoff-Saxo) who withdrew because of cancer. Reports say that he has already had a successful surgery. Hopefully, he will have a full recovery.

This year's Tour does not include the famous mountain in Provence - Mt. Ventoux - which is a shame. That climb has often been a deciding factor in past Tours. Here we see Ashley and Matt Jensen nearing the summit of Mt. Ventoux in May 2011.

Stage 11 – Polish Rider Conquers Tourmalet Stage

2015-07-15T12:15:00.002-07:00

Rafal Majka (Tinkoff-Saxo) rode away from an early breakaway group, beat the peloton over the col du Tourmalet by 5 minutes, and held on to win Stage 11 in the Pyrénées today. Daniel Martin made a valiant effort to catch Majka and won the Most Combative prize. Peter Sagan out-pointed André Greipel at the intermediate sprint to retake the Green Jersey, with a current lead of 7 points.

Team Sky shepherded Chris Froome to the line 5:21 behind Majka with almost no change in the GC standings, as the top contenders managed to stay in Froome’s select group. With late attacks, Bauke Mollema (Trek) and Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) nibbled a few seconds off their deficits to Froome.

On the other hand, Astana’s big effort to drop Froome and Team Sky on the Tourmalet backfired on Vincenzo Nibali. Astana pushed the pace very hard on the lower slopes, but Sky calmly matched the pace. By the summit, it was Astana that had cracked, and Nibali ended up losing another minute, and dropping out of the top 10. Mollema, with his 10-second attack at the finish, leap-frogged Nibali into 10^th place.

With his mountain-top finish in Stage 10 (double climbing points), Froome also claimed the Polka-Dot (King of the Mountains) Jersey. Majka’s victory today did not qualify for double points, so he's in 3rd place in this category, trailing Froome by 25 points. Meanwhile, Richie Porte has picked up enough points helping Froome to be in 2nd, and will wear the KOM jersey tomorrow because Froome will still wear the Yellow.

Team Sky’s defensive tactics are perfect for tomorrow’s last stage in the Pyrénées Sky will gladly allow any unranked riders to push another successful breakaway. Sooner or later, any ranked GC contenders who hope to threaten Froome will need to attack. Only five mountain stages remain. If they just hang with Sky and try to gain a few seconds at the end of each stage (as Mollema and Valverde did today), they will never gain enough to overtake Froome. But if they launch an aggressive long-range move (as Astana did today), and Sky continues to match their aggression, they risk blowing up and losing time, as Nibali did. With 10 stages still to go, the Yellow Jersey competition is already looking desperate for the chasers. In an interview after Stage 11, Van Garderen, in 2^nd place at a deficit of 2:52, sounded very much like he has conceded 1^st place to Froome and is content to just protect his 2^nd place position. Unless someone else causes Froome to crack, I do not expect Van Garderen to launch any attacks. A couple more days like today, and only the placements of the also-rans will be at stake.

Bagnères-de-Bigorre, near the site of TDF 2015 Stage 11's intermediate sprint. Also the starting point for these climbers' ascent of the Col du Tourmalet in May 2011: Matt Jensen, Aaron Kennard, Nan Kennard and Ashley Jensen.

Early slopes of the Tourmalet. This is where Astana tried to push the pace, in hopes of dropping Sky and Chris Froome. (TDF 2015) The tactic backfired when Astana cracked instead of Sky. Riders in photo: Ashley Jensen, Matt Jensen and Nan Kennard (May 2011).

Matt Jensen celebrates conquering the Col du Tourmalet (May 2011). Matt is the founder of North Salt Lake's annual Three Kings Bike Challenge, a worthy test for any would-be climber.

The view at the top of the Col du Tourmalet. Nan & Aaron Kennard, Matt & Ashley Jensen (May 2011). (All photos courtesy of Aaron Kennard.)

Stage 10 – British Invasion for Bastille Day

2015-07-14T14:57:00.000-07:00

The first mountain stage rolled out perfectly for Chris Froome and his British Team Sky. As predicted the Sky train set a fast pace into the Pyrénées causing a steady erosion of GC contenders and pretenders from the peloton. Once on the final climb, Valverde (Movistar) tried the strategy I suggested yesterday: namely attack the peloton in hopes of causing panic, over-reaction and blow-up by Sky, He tried it several times, but each time Sky kept their cool and steadily reeled him in. Then Robert Gesink (LottoNL-Jumbo) tried it. Same result: no panic, steady recapture. The victims of these assaults were not Sky and Froome, but other GC boys such as Nibali and Mollema. The French hopefuls for Bastille Day fireworks (Pinot, Péreaud, and Bardet) steadily lost ground. French riders Gallopin and Barguil managed best to save face for the host country, moving up in the standings, but still losing time.

About when Contador and Van Garderen began to slip off the back end of Sky’s dwindling peloton, Froome launched a counter-attack of his own that left Quintana in the dust. He raced the final kilometers by himself for the victory. His own teammates, Richie Porte and Thomas Geraint led a dozen stragglers home with time gaps ranging from one minute to three.

Before today, 4 riders were within one minute of Froome, and 11 others were within three minutes. After today, the closest rider (Van Garderen) is almost 3 minutes behind, and only six others are within five minutes.

Of my original top-6, only Van Garderen, Quintana and Contador are in that small 5-minute group (along with Quintana’s teammate Valverde – the “other Spaniard”). Nibali and Mollema are at minus 7 minutes, and seem lucky to be that “close.” Three who have exceeded my expectations are Gallopin, Gesink and Barguil in 7^th, 8^th and 9^th places at deficits of 4:33 to 6:12.

One or two more days like today, and Froome will have demoralized everyone except Sky, and he will have an iron grip on the Yellow Jersey. Team Sky demolished BMC’s former lead in the team competition, going from a 7:30 deficit to a 6:03 lead.

On the Green Jersey front: The see-saw battle continues. Greipel collected six more points than Sagan at the intermediate sprint, jumping back into the Green Jersey with a lead of three points. This pattern of small changes will likely continue for two more days, before a stage-ending sprint might occur in Stage 13, with really big points at stake.

Two bits of sad news: You may remember that Lars Boom (Astana) nearly missed the Tour this year when a pre-race lab test showed he had low cortisol levels. Astana chose to include him on the squad anyway, with doctors saying his health was not at risk. Today, Lars Boom withdrew from the Tour, and we learn he has been suffering with a fever. Ivan Basso (Tinkoff-Saxo) also abandoned overnight, having been diagnosed with testicular cancer. Best wishes, to both of them. Ivan, get the cancer treated, and may you recover fully and quickly.

We enter the Pyrénées! Let the climbing begin!

Another view: Mont Canigou (Pyrénées) from Perpignan in February. The snow will be off the roads, but if a storm comes through, it could snow on the riders even in July.

Stage 9 – BMC Wins Team Time Trial, with Sky At Their Heels

2015-07-13T18:02:00.000-07:00

Two weeks ago I predicted that the time trials would not have a significant bearing on the fight for the Yellow Jersey. How did I do?

First off, I misjudged the Team Time Trial (TTT). I said it was too short, and comparable to the TTT from 2013, so I predicted time gaps in the range of 25 seconds or less. Because this year’s course was hilly and featured a long, steep uphill finish, the time gaps made it comparable to a much longer course. Almost half of the teams finished between 1:30 and 2:00 behind Tejay Van Garderen's winning team BMC – 3 to 4 times the gap that I predicted. Mollema’s Trek team was among those teams with the big time gaps.

Except for that, my predictions held up fairly well. For example, GC leader Chris Foome's Team Sky was only one second behind BMC, so no damage to Froome's current lead. Of course, we will not know for sure whether the time trial gaps will be critical for the final GC until the whole race is finished. But, among my projected 6 contenders (Nibali, Contador, Froome, Quintana, Van Garderen and Mollema), the net time gap from both time trials are mostly very small, as I predicted. Foome is the current GC leader after 9 stages. But if just the time trials are counted, Van Garderen leads Froome by 9 seconds, followed by Quintana at -24, Nibali at -36, Contador at -44, and Mollema at -1:20. The gaps for the latter three are larger than I expected, but still not insurmountable. I continue to expect the mountain stages to produce time gaps that will wipe out the relevance of the time trial gaps. Mollema is the most at-risk, because he has also lost 1:45 to Froome in the so-called “safe” stages. There are another ten riders with GC potential who are within five minutes of Froome, plus two – Pinot and Rolland – who could stir things by trying to sustain one or more stage-stealing breakaways. They are at -8:25 and -11:43 respectively.

Froome’s strategy in the mountains will likely be for his Sky teammates to keep a fast enough pace through the mountains to discourage attacks, while at the same time keeping Froome safe in their slipstream. Some of the GC boys will wilt under that pace, and the field will narrow a bit each day. Near the end of each stage, Froome will look for opportunities to attack the remaining contenders. This is the strategy that carried Wiggins to victory in 2012, Froome in 2013, and Nibali (with Astana) in 2014.

Anyone hoping to wrestle the Yellow Jersey away from Froome will need to, first, always match the Sky pace; and, second, find one or more opportunities to launch a successful long-range attack. For most of the riders, attacking at the last minute, merely for a stage win will not yield enough time gap to capture the Yellow Jersey.

Pinot and Rolland are far enough behind in the current standings that they might be allowed to join an early breakaway. If successful, they could conceivably rejoin the favorites. A really successful breakaway might also create some panic on Team Sky. If Froome could be induced to over-react, he might crack, leaving the door open for others to seize control of the Yellow Jersey. Sagan and Valverde are strong climbers, working for Contador and Quintana, respectively, and they are both also highly placed in the GC standings. If, instead of riding shelter for their “bosses,” either of them were to attack, Sky and Froome would be forced to respond, again creating the possibility of panic, over-reaction, and a blow-up. In my opinion it will require some kind of aggressive, creative attacking strategies such as these in order for anyone to take the Jersey away from Froome.

Just riding defensively, matching the Sky pace, will not be sufficient.

Let the mountain stages begin!

Speaking of mountains and cycling, Draper Utah has amazing trails for mountain biking!

I encountered these women cyclists this morning while hiking Ann's Trail near my home.

I also shared the trail with several high school mountain biking teams. This one from Corner Canyon HS in Draper.

More high school cyclists out for an early morning training ride.

Some of the trails are designated for down-hill bikers only. A hiker would risk his life plodding along on those trails. But there are plenty of trails for every taste. Hikers, bikers (non-motorized only!), horseback riders. Families, children, and even old geezers like me.

Stage Eight – “Allons Enfants de la Patri-e, Le Jour de Gloire Est Arrivé.”

2015-07-11T21:48:00.002-07:00

The French finally have a stage winner for their Tour. And just in time for Bastille Day next week. Alexis Vuillermoz (AG2R Le Mondial) jumped ahead of the favorites on the steep slopes of the Mûr-de-Bretagne, and claimed his first Tour de France stage win. This native son spoiled the dreams of Dan Martin, Alejandro Valverde and Peter Sagan who chased him over the line. GC hopefuls Nibali, Talansky, Pinot and Bardet failed to maintain contact with the front part of the peleton and lost small amounts of time to Froome, who still wears the Yellow Jersey.

In the intermediate sprint, Greipel added 4 points to his Green Jersey lead over Peter Sagan. But Sagan turned the tables on Greipel at the finish line, scoring 19 points to Greipel’s zero. This shifts the Green Jersey to Sagan by a margin of only 3 seconds. They will resume their battle on Tuesday (after the rest day), when the Tour enters the Pyrénées.

Daniel Teklehaimanot kept his Polka-Dot (King of Mountains) Jersey without scoring any more points, because only 3 points were available, and they went to riders with no previous points.

The major and minor contenders for the Yellow Jersey retained their positions in that race (except the four mentioned who lost time), with Froome still leading a pack of 20 riders by margins ranging from 11 seconds to 3 minutes 15 seconds. Three minutes could be regained in the mountains, but that rider (Bardet) would have to not only out-ride Froome by that much, but he would also have to out-ride the other 19 riders ahead of him. Not likely. But the seven riders within a minute of Froome could still reasonably hope to move into the lead and perhaps win the final prize. Indeed, in tomorrow’s team time trial, either Peter Sagan (Tinkoff-Saxo) or Tejay Van Garderen (BMC) could steal the Yellow Jersey if their teams could beat Froome’s Team Sky by 12 or 14 seconds respectively. Very real possibilities!

I said before the Tour started that the time trials would not decide the final winner of the Yellow Jersey, and I still believe that. But, there is a high possibility that the TTT tomorrow could cause a change in the holder of that jersey for the start of the second week of the Tour. These riders will all be super motivated tomorrow.

So, will Team BMC post the fastest time in tomorrow's team time trial, and retain their Yellow Helmet position as the leading team? And will they win by enough seconds to propel their leader Tejay Van Garderen into the Yellow Jersey?

Or will Team Sky - riding last and knowing the time and speed to beat - preserve the Yellow Jersey for their leader Chris Froome? Every day is exciting.

Stage Seven – Cavendish Finally Breaks Through

2015-07-10T17:48:00.000-07:00

Today’s flat stage to Bretagne (Brittany) – not to be confused with Great Britain – followed the script laid out for it. Early breakaway, with Teklehaimanot collecting another climbing point and keeping his Polka-Dot Jersey. The Green Jersey boys contesting the left-over points at the intermediate sprint, with Sagan creeping one point closer to Greipel. The peleton catching the escapees within the last 20 Km. And the sprinters’ teams winding the speed up near 60 Km/hour for a bunch sprint finish.

This time Cavendish kept his cool, patiently resisting the urge to surge too soon. Greipel found himself leading the final charge, and providing the slipstream to slingshot Cavendish around him at the last minute for Cavendish’s first stage win of the Tour. Sagan also tried to slingshot past Greipel, but failed by a few inches. Cavendish’s tactics (and the work of his team Etixx-Quickstep) were brilliant. He probably will not win five stages – as I suggested earlier as a possible maximum. But he could yet win two or three. He dedicated this win today to his fallen teammate Tony Martin. I am happy for Cavendish.

The GC standings remain unchanged. Whereas Sagan yesterday closed the gap on Greipel for the Green Jersey, today Greipel opened up the gap again, this time by 9 points. Consolation for Sagan came with the time bonus for 3^rd place on the stage, which moved him into GC 2^nd place overall for the Yellow Jersey, just eleven seconds behind Froome. Sagan could conceivably steal the Maillot Jaune tomorrow with a strong finish in the uphill finish at Mur de Bretagne; or even on Sunday with a strong ride by Tinkoff-Saxo in the team time trial. You know these ideas will be on the agenda in the Tinkoff bus and hotel.

Imagine you are in France to watch the Tour de France. This outdoor market is in Lentilly, a village outside of Lyon. The Tour passed right through this village last year in Stage 12. Of course the riders did not stop to enjoy it.

A few Km beyond Lentilly (previous photo) that same Stage 12 swept through the even-smaller village of Pollionay. You can just see Lyon in the background haze.

Five or ten minutes later, Stage 12 (2014) sped past the village of Vaugneray.

Down a hill and around a bend, and Stage 12 (2014) flew past Yzeron. My grandson Sam and I made it a point to follow the Tour's route from that stage a few months after the race. Our pace was relaxed, and we absorbed all the beautiful and peaceful atmosphere of rural France. A pastry in Lentilly. A look inside some of the village churches. A baguette sandwich in Yzeron. Hard to beat!

Stage Six – Geography Quiz: Where in the World is Eritrea?

2015-07-09T17:16:00.000-07:00

If you guessed “Next to Djibouti,” you guessed right. More specifically, it is in northeastern Africa along the southern coast of the Red Sea. Ethiopia is “below” (south of) Eritrea, and Sudan is “above” Eritrea (north and west). Beyond Sudan to the north is Egypt. East of Eritrea – across the Red Sea – are Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Got the picture? Eritrea is a small country with a long, complex history of colonization and independence. It is also the site of numerous discoveries of the earliest ancestors of the human race. In recent years, it is the homeland of dozens of world-class long distance runners – men and women.

So, what does Eritrea have to do with the Tour de France? Everything, that’s what. In today’s Stage Six, Eritrean Daniel Teklehaimanot (MTN-Qhubeka) joined Perrig Quemeneur (Europcar) and Kenneth Vanbilsen (Cofidis) in a long breakaway that lasted until the final kilometers. Along the way, Teklehaimanot fought for, and won, the climbing points on all three category 4 “mountains.” This bold effort allowed him to leap-frog Joaquim “Purito” Rodriguez (Katusha) for the Polka-Dot Jersey as the new King of the Mountains. Daniel explained afterwards that from far-away

Eritrea

he has been dreaming of wearing the Polka-Dot Jersey in the Tour de France since he was just six years old. Talk about an “impossible dream!” There had never before even been an Eritrean cyclist to ride in the Tour. When he first began to nurture this dream, there probably were zero Eritreans who were even professional cyclists. He did not dream of wearing the Yellow Jersey, but just the Polka-Dot Jersey – the King of the Mountains.

MTN Qhubeka is a new team in cycling, and this is their first invite to the Grand Tour – the first team ever from Africa. The team is connected to a charitable foundation that provides bicycles to children in Africa to improve transportation and mobility, allowing these children easier access to schools and other benefits in their developing societies. Teklehaimanot is joined on this year’s history-making squad by fellow countryman Merhawi Kudus. The team’s modest goals coming into the Tour were to accomplish one or more of the following: win a stage, or at least a podium finish, show energy in breakaways, wear a prize jersey – even if just for one day. Their most recognizable stars are Norwegian Edvald Boassen Hagan and American Tyler Farrar – both sprinters. But Teklehaimanot is a rising star among climbers. He won the Polka-Dot Jersey in this year’s Criterium du Dauphiné. His victory on the climbs today was no accident. He and his team had specifically planned for today’s tactic, and they worked the plan to perfection. Chapeau (Hats off) to Teklehaimanot and to MTN Qhubeka!

In other news of today’s stage, Etixx-Quickstep claimed the victory, but not by Cavendish. It was his teammate Zdenek Stybar who jumped ahead of the peleton on the final climb. Peter Sagan (Tinkoff-Saxo) came roaring up behind him for second place, with André Greipel (Lotto-Soudal) nowhere to be seen. This moved Sagan to within three seconds of Greipel for the Green Jersey. The fight is on!

Sad news of the day: Tony Martin (Etixx-Quickstep), after riding safely at the front of the peleton all day in his Yellow Jersey, had a nasty crash within a Km of the finish, and broke his collar bone. With help from his teammates, he finished the stage, but post-race announcements say that he will not continue the Tour tomorrow. He has been a sentimental favorite this year, after narrowly missing the Yellow Jersey time after time, and then finally claiming it with a stage win on day four. Chapeau to you too, André Greipel. Get well soon.

These photos are in honor of Daniel Teklehaimanot and his capture of the Polka-Dot Jersey.

The Polka-Dot Tour de France casquette was a gift to me from Elder Herb Clark after we watched last year's Tour together in Lentilly (near Lyon) - Stage 12, 2014.

As you might guess, my wife Suzanne and I love France. She has decorated our home with her artistic French photos and just a few French roosters.

We should take a survey and invite all readers of this blog to vote for their favorite photo from the above line-up.

In closing for today, I say again, "Chapeau to both Daniel Teklehaimanot and Tony Martin."

Stage Five – A Little Drama, but No Big Changes

2015-07-08T11:16:00.001-07:00

Stage Five was expected to be a sprinter’s stage, and it held true to form. So far this year, no breakaway has come even remotely close to succeeding all the way to the finish. Cavendish was positioned well at the end, but Greipel and Sagan both came roaring around him on the left at the line. Greipel grabbed his second stage win, and increased his Green Jersey lead over Sagan by 26 points. One sprinter who lost his dream today was Nacer Bouhanni. He crashed early and aggravated pre-Tour injuries, leaving the Tour in an ambulance. No apparent fractures, but he lost all hope of TDF glory for another year.

All the major contenders for the GC Yellow Jersey managed to stay in the lead peleton, so there was no shuffling of those standings. Nasty weather and a few crashes, but no big shake-ups today. Tomorrow and Friday, more of the same? Maybe some wind along the coast tomorrow could split up the peleton. GC riders will need to pay attention to avoid any more time losses.

André Greipel (Lotto-Soudal), winner of Stages 2 and 5 (2015), cruising with the peleton in Stage 12 (2014) through Lentilly (village outside of Lyon).

Joaquim “Purito” Rodriguez (Katusha) wearing the Polka-Dot "King of the Mountains" jersey in Stage 12 (2014) through Lentilly (village outside of Lyon). Already in Stage 5 (2015) he again carries the same prize jersey. How long can he keep it?

Stage 4 in 100 Words or Less

2015-07-07T14:18:00.000-07:00

Exciting finish today! I'm happy for Martin winning the stage and taking the Yellow Jersey; and even for Cavendish who helped keep him in position. Sagan narrowed his gap to the Green Jersey with a podium finish, while helping Contador stay in front group. Quintana showed his grit and lost no time on the cobbles. Van Garderen is hanging in there still. Nibali won "Most Aggressive" but didn't gain any time - at least he didn't lose any more. Froome is still man to beat. Big loser today: Pinot losing 3+ minutes with mechanical problems, now trails Froome by 6:30.

As a parting salute to Belgium, site of two stages of this year's Tour, here are a couple of Belgian icons.

Stage 3 - Accidents and GC Drama

2015-07-06T20:24:00.000-07:00

The biggest news of today was the severity of the accidents. While flying down hill at about 80 Km/hr, one or more riders bumped into others and caused two huge chain-reaction accidents. About 40 riders hit the pavement. With so many riders sprawled on the ground, and the roadway full of ambulances and support cars, the race officials stopped the race for about 10 minutes. The official race car led the survivors to the top of the next hill and then officially restarted the race. The most severely injured seems to be William Bonnet (FDJ), with fractured vertebrae in his neck. He and three others abandoned immediately. Others, including Cancellara in the Yellow Jersey, resumed riding and finished the stage. But Cancellara not only lost the Yellow Jersey, he was diagnosed after the race with fractured vertebrae in his back, so he will not continue tomorrow.

The stage winner today was Joaquim “Purito” Rodriguez (Katusha). He surged up the final steep hill to victory, with only Chris Froome (Sky) able to stay close enough to claim the same time. But even in 2^nd place, Froome was the big winner, as he captured the Yellow Jersey, and improved his time margins against all GC challengers. Contador, Nibali and Quintana, the rest of the so-called “Big Four,” trail Froome by one-half to two full minutes. Eight others are within three minutes of Froome, with Van Garderen being closest at -13 seconds. These first stages were not supposed to impact the GC standings. But if Froome continues to gain small increments in these “safe” stages, he and his strong Sky team will be in a position of defensive strength heading into the mountains.

On another front, André Greipel (Lotto-Soudal) (whose withdrawal I prematurely announced) has staked the first serious claim for the Green Jersey – sprinting points. By winning Stage 2 and scoring points in both intermediate sprints, he has accumulated 75 points, beating Peter Sagan (Tinkoff-Saxo) at his own game. Sagan trails with only 48 points. It’s way to early to anoint a winner in this category, but Greipel seems to understand the importance of contesting the intermediate points as well as the finish line battles.

Nan Kennard conquering the steepest part of the Second King, in North Salt Lake's 2015 edition of the Three Kings Bike Challenge. Nan won third place among all women riders in this year's race. The climbs in this annual race are as steep as the Mur de Huy in today's Tour de France Stage 3.

Aaron Kennard laboring to drop a competitor on the steepest part of the Second King, in North Salt Lake's 2015 edition of the Three Kings Bike Challenge. He readily conceded that his wife had already dropped him!

Stage 2 - No Surprise; Big Surprise

2015-07-05T17:58:00.001-07:00

Stage Two ended in a sprint finish. No surprise.

Stage Two shook-up the GC standings. Bis surprise.

1. Sprint Finish: Etixx-Quickstep did its job of reeling in the early breakaway and setting up Mark Cavendish for a sprint finish. In fact, Etixx not only reeled in the escapees, they managed to drop many of the best sprinters from the peleton. Looks perfect for Cavendish, doesn’t it? But he seemed to start his sprint a bit too early. This allowed André Greipel (Lotto-Soudal) and Peter Sagan (Tinkoff-Saxo) to rev-up their engines in his slip-stream and then to sling-shot around him at the end to take 1^st & 2^nd places. When Cavendish let off the gas to coast in for 3^rd, Fabian Cancellara (Trek) fought all the way through to the line to nip 3^rd place by mere inches. Having lost the stage win, Cavendish may not have cared much for the difference between 3^rd and 4^th, but Cancellara cared plenty. Third place carries a 4-second time bonus, which catapulted Cancellara into the Yellow Jersey. (See explanation below in discussion of GC standings.)

2. Surprising Shake-up in GC (Yellow Jersey) Standings: This was supposed to be a safe stage for the GC boys. Long and flat, with a sprint finish. Just stay with the peleton, let the sprinters fight for the stage win, and roll in with the same time as everyone else. Ooops! Something went wrong. About 50 Km from the finish, strong cross winds created a gap in the peleton. Etixx and the others leading the peleton got the word and tromped down hard on the accelerator. Before anyone knew what had hit them, all but 26 riders were trailing the peleton by a minute or more. Most of the GC hopefuls were caught off-guard by that split, and lost more than a minute to the lucky ones (or were they just cagey?) who managed to stay in the lead peleton.

First, the big GC winners: Chris Froome (Sky), Tejay Van Garderen (BMC), Alberto Contador (Tinkoff-Saxo), and Rigoberto Uran (Etixx-Quickstep). They are all within 18 seconds of each other overall.

All other serious GC contenders finished at least 1:28 behind the stage winner, and now trail the leading four GC riders by one minute or more. One or two minutes can be redeemed in the mountains, but only with superb tactics and power; not by riding defensively. This early gap also means these riders have no cushion for further mistakes in the remaining “safe” stages – like Monday’s or Saturday’s hill-top finishes, or Tuesday’s cobbles. Today’s surprise big losers include: Vincenzo Nibali (Astana), Nairo Quintana (Movistar), Bauke Mollema (Trek), Robert Gesink (LottoNL-Jumbo), Thibaut Pinot (FDJ), Alejandro Valverde (Movistar), J-C Péreaud (AG2R Le Mondial), and Andrew Talanski (Cannondale-Garmin).

Yesterday’s winner, Rohan Dennis (BMC) found himself stranded in the trailing group, and necessarily lost his Yellow Jersey, after wearing it for only one day. Since Tony Martin (Etixx-Quickstep) and Fabian Cancellara (Trek) both managed to stay with the leading peleton, it looked like Martin would inherit the Yellow Jersey. But by streaking in for 3^rd place and the 4-seconds time bonus, Cancellara erased his previous one-second deficit and leap-frogged Martin to claim the prize. The time bonus is small, but in this case, it made a huge difference in Glory for Cancellara. Peter Sagan made a similar coup in the recent Tour of California. With a photo-finish for 3^rd place in the final stage, he collected a few seconds time bonus, just enough to win the overall Yellow Jersey.

I hope you like these photos from the huge mural of children's art in the Lyon bike tunnel.

The tunnel goes from the Rhône River to the Sôane River (1.3 Km) underneath the Croix Rousse hill. Imagine a tunnel from Salt Lake City to Bountiful, under Capitol Hill! Wouldn't that be cool!

The tunnel has three lanes: One for buses (infrequent), one for pedestrians, and one for bikes, boards & blades. These latter two are in constant use, but seldom crowded. The walls are lined with art, some permanent (like this mural), and some projected and changing constantly. A changing selection of music plays most of the time as well. It is a centerpiece of Lyon's bike-friendly culture.

Stage 1 – Record Speed As Predicted

2015-07-04T12:44:00.002-07:00

I guess 60 Km/hour was a bit unrealistic, but 55 Km/hour proved to be a worthy goal. Australia’s Rohan Dennis (BMC) covered the 13.8 Km course in under 15 minutes (14:56) to set a new Tour de France speed record of 55.446 Km/hour. Chris Boardman had set the previous record 21 years ago on a very short prologue of only 7.2 Km. So, Dennis will wear the Yellow Jersey starting tomorrow, and until someone takes it from him. If the early stages all end in bunch sprints, he could keep the prize jersey for more than a week.

Of the six riders I predicted to dominate this time trial, four claimed the first four positions, separated by 8 seconds or less: Rohan Dennis (BMC) first, Tony Martin (Etixx-Quickstep) at -05”, Fabian Cancellara at -06”, and Tom Dumoulin at -08”. Alex Dowsett (Movistar) was respectable in 13^th place at -36”, but Mikal Kwiatkowski disappointed me in 64^th place at -1:06.

I said earlier that the time trial would not have a significant bearing on the final GC (Yellow Jersey) standings. I still believe that prediction. Of the six riders I featured as likely challengers for that top prize, they all finished within 24 seconds of each other. They crossed the line in approximately reverse order from that predicted by the odds-makers, led by Bauke Mollema (Trek) (worst odds at 200:1), followed by Tejay Van Garderen (BMC), Vincenzo Nibali (Astana), Chris Froome (Sky), Alberto Contador (Tinkoff-Saxo) and Nairo Quintana (Movistar). Quintana’s teammate Alejandro Valverde and Contador’s teammate Peter Sagan are also within that 24-second group, as are two favorites of the French fans, Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) and Jérôme Péreau (AG2R Le Mondial). But with 20 more stages to race, including 7 high-mountain stages, those 24 seconds will be shuffled and re-shuffled into oblivion by the end of the Tour.

The only stages before the mountains where a GC shake-up might occur could be Stages 3 and 8 (hill-top finishes) or Stage 4 (featuring the cobble stone lanes from the Paris-Roubaix spring “classic” race). Of course, accidents are a risk in every stage, and can derail the favorites without warning – as they did early in the 2014 Tour.

Admission of Blunders:

In my late post of yesterday I reported that André Greipel (Lotto-Soudal) would miss the TDF this year because of an injury. Imagine my surprise this morning to see him riding in the time trial! I went back to my research notes, and discovered that I had mistakenly lumped him in with his teammate Jurgen Van den Broeck. So, if you are keeping score, you can add Greipel back in as a top prospect in the sprint finishes.

I also reported that Lars Boom was scratched from the Tour at the last minute because of a low cortisol reading. The low reading is true (attributed to permitted use of asthma medication). Only the voluntary compliance organization MPCC (Movement for Credible Cycling) calls for the rider to not race. The governing body for the Tour, UCI considers him still eligible, and the team’s medical advisors deem him perfectly healthy. Still, in order to satisfy MPCC, Astana was willing to replace him with a designated alternate. But UCI would not allow the substitution, because the test results came out after the rosters were finalized. Therefore, Astana chose to defy the MPCC. That is why Lars Boom did ride in today’s Stage One, and Astana has its full complement of nine riders. That improves Nibali’s chances of ultimately defending his Yellow Jersey, or at least eliminates a serious set-back.

For lack of photos of the actual riders, here are some more photos of French clocks:

French alarm clocks.

Clock in Church tower, Vallée d'Azergues, north of Lyon.

Clock in church tower in village of Vaugneray, south of Lyon

Not all of the clocks are in churches. This one is at the Lyon Mairie (City Hall).

Last Pre-race Post - Yellow Jersey and Sprint Predictions

2015-07-03T22:03:00.001-07:00

On the eve of the Grand Départ in Utrecht, Netherlands (Holland) let me cover three topics:

1. Identifying likely contenders for the Yellow Jersey

2. Identifying likely sprint winners

3. Identifying Tour regulars and fan favorites absent from the 2015 Tour de France

1. Likely Contenders for the Yellow Jersey. The Yellow Jersey is the coveted prize for the rider with the fastest cumulative time at the end of all of the 21 stages – three weeks of racing. This prize category is also referred to as the General Classification or GC. At the end of each stage, the rider leading in this category is awarded the Yellow Jersey for the next stage, and keeps it until another rider improves upon his cumulative time.

The unofficial “Big Three” GC contenders this year are Vincenzo Nibali (Astana), Alberto Contador (Tinkoff-Saxo), and Chris Froome (Sky). Each has already won the Tour de France before. Each is a first-rate climber, and each has the backing of a corps of equally strong climbers to support him.

There are seven mountain stages where the GC battle will be decided. Three in the Pyrénées during the second week; and four in the Alps during the third and final week. This program favors the team that can burn through a succession of “domestiques” at the front of the peleton, forcing a murderous pace. Their own designated leader will follow in the sheltered slip-stream of his teammate pace-setters, while the other GC contenders and their teams are forced, one after the other, to drop out of the ever-shrinking peleton. Then, when most of the GC hopefuls have been dropped, the leader of the pace-setting team launches an attack on any remaining contenders to create a time differential and take control of the Yellow Jersey.

Sky worked this strategy to perfection in 2012 (Wiggins & Froome 1^st & 2^nd) and in 2013 (Froome 1^st). In 2014, with Froome and Contador both victims of early accidents, Astana used the same strategy to send Nibali to a dominating victory. Barring accidents, I see Sky (Froome) as having the strongest climbing team, followed very closely by Tinkoff-Saxo (Contador). Astana (Nibali) is missing two strong climbers (Aru and Landa), and learned on the eve of Stage One that Lars Boom is out because of a low cortisol test. This news came too late to activate a replacement, so Astana will only have 8 riders. Therefore, Astana will likely be weaker than those other two teams. I’ll go out on a limb and pick Contador, just because he’s so motivated to complete the “Triple Crown” all in a row – Tours of Spain,

Italy

and

France

So, does anyone else have a chance? The other GC leaders will need to be mostly defensive – being sure to match the fast pace set by the Big Three throughout the seven mountain stages. And then, they will need to launch one or more perfectly timed attacks in order to gain enough time to steal the Yellow Jersey. Nairo Quintana (Movistar) is capable matching almost anyone’s pace, so he has a chance to win it all, but it will require some luck and perfect timing when he decides to attack. His Movistar teammate Alejandro Valverde is a strong climber, but will be riding in support of Quintana. The main American hope is Tejay Van Garderen (BMC). Like Quintana, he will need to mostly ride to match the Big Three pace, and then find just the right moment to spring a surprise attack. My final candidate for possible glory would be Bauke Mollema (Trek). Like the other two, he does not have the team that can dominate the pace. So, he will need to match the pace, and then be ready to attack when (or if) the opportunity arises. Of these latter three riders, I give Quintana the best chance to pull off the upset.

Just as a matter of interest, the odds-makers rate the Big Three and Quintana at 5:1 or better (with Quintana having the best odds). Van Garderen is rated at 33:1; Mollema at 200:1 – with Cadel Evans, Franck Schleck and Jurgen Van den Broeck (all absent from the Tour this year!) at the same 200:1 odds. Is that a vote of No-Confidence or what?

2. Likely Sprint Winners.

The stages most likely to end in a sprint finish are Stages 2 through 8, in the first week of the Tour, possibly a couple of stages between the Pyrénées and the Alps, and the final stage into Paris – maximum of 10 stages. To win a sprint, the rider must first have a team willing and able to push the pace of the peleton in order to catch the inevitable breakaway in each stage. Then, having caught the breakaway, the rider’s team must provide him with a “lead-out train” of riders to carry him at top speed to the front of the peleton, where he can launch into overdrive for the final 100 meters or so to nip the other sprint specialists in a photo-finish at the line.

The undisputed best sprinter in the field is Mark Cavendish (Etixx-Quickstep). His team is built specifically to help him win stages, and he has the experience to make his own luck (a very key ingredient). I expect him to win at least three stages, and five would not be out of the question. So, who are the other riders who might hope to pick up the scraps? The following is a list of likely stage winners, in no particular order of strength. Norwegian Alexander Kristoff (Katusha) has won 20 stages in the last 12 months, since winning two stages at the 2014 TDF. Peter Sagan (Tinkoff-Saxo). In spite of winning two stages and the overall GC Yellow Jersey at the Tour of California, Sagan’s team owner is disappointed in his results this season, so he needs to win at least one stage, and he needs to win the Green Jersey for sprinting points. Both are within his reach, be he is not likely to match Cavendish for stage wins. (Cavendish won three stages at the Tour of California.) Nacer Bouhanni (Cofidis), perhaps the most promising rising French star, has been having a very good year, winning sprints against top competition. Fabian Cancellara (Treck). He is more likely to shine in the time trial, but he could also win a sprint stage. John Degenkolb (Giant Alpecin) is a young German sprinter with great promise, and will be supported by his team in the absence of Marcel Kittel (injuries). Edvald Boassen Hagan and American Tyler Farrer (MTN-Qhubeka) are both capable sprinters. Bryan Coquard (Europcar) is another young French sprinter with a lot of promise. As you can see, it will be very crowded at the spear-head of the peleton on the sprint stages.

3. Who is Absent This Year?

Here is a list of well-known GC contenders or strong climbers who will not participate in this year’s Tour de France. Both Andy and Franck Schleck (injuries and/or retirement). Brad Wiggins, Cadel Evans. Jurgen Van den Broeck. The Herrada brothers, and the Henao brothers. Benat Intxausti. Simon Clarke. Americans, Tom Danielson, Matthew Busche and the King brothers. Yaroslav Paulinho. Fabio Aru, rising star of Astana – it appears Nibali did not want to risk sharing the limelight with him.

The following well-known sprinters are absent this year, leaving a few stage wins possibly up for grabs: André Greipel (injury). Marcel Kittel (injury). Philippe Gilbert (injury).

Simon Clarke (Orica Greenedge) - rider on right - during Stage 12, 2014 Tour de France (Lyon). Clarke is absent for the 2015 Tour.

What Can We Expect for the Opening Time Trial?

2015-07-02T20:11:00.001-07:00

SPEED! The stage is only 13.8 Km long. It involves a pancake-flat ride through the streets of Utrecht, Holland. The beginning elevation is only 3 meters above sea level; and the finish is at 5 meters. That’s flat.

Consider that the cycling one-hour speed record was broken three times this year at 52.491 Km by Rohan Dennis, at 52.937 Km by Alex Dowsett, and then at 54.937 Km by Bradley Wiggins. Those riders maintained that 50+ Km/hour pace for a full hour. Could they have averaged 60 Km/hour for a mere quarter-hour? Those records were set in the controlled environment of indoor tracks, with banked corners and ideal riding surfaces. Stage One of the Tour will have about as close to similar perfect conditions as a road race can have. The course is perfectly flat. There will only be about twenty 90-degree corners, but there will also be longer straight-aways. Negative factors could be possible wind and the distraction of spectators along the route. The question remains whether anyone can push the 60 Km/hour pace for that intense-but-short zip around the city?

In the 2012 Tour, the opening Prologue in Liège was only 6.4 Km. Fabian Cancellara won that race in 7 minutes and 13 seconds, for an average speed of 53.21 Km/hour. In order to finish this year’s opening stage in 15 minutes or less, the winner will need to average better than 55 Km/hour. A winning time of 13 minutes 48 seconds or less will break the 60 Km/hour barrier.

So, who might be able to do that? The top two favorites are Fabian Cancellara (Trek) and Tony Martin (Etixx-Quidkstep). They are perennial winners of their own countries’ time trial championships (Switzerland and Germany respectively), as well as most of the prestigious time trials in the biggest races on the pro circuit. But will Cancellara’s age or his injury earlier in the season slow him down? Two others who have demonstrated their speed this year are Alex Dowsett (Movistar) and Rohan Dennis (BMC), recent one-hour world record holders. If you want a couple of “dark horses,” cheer for Dutch rider Tom Dumoulin (Giant-Alpecin) – winner of three ITTs already this year; and Polish rider Michal Kwiatkowski (Etixx-Quickstep) – Polish time trial champion and frequent winner of ITTs.

None of these riders will challenge for the final Yellow Jersey at the end of the three-week Tour de France; but each of them would dearly love to win Stage One, and thus the honor of wearing the coveted Yellow Jersey for the first few days of the Tour. So, pick your favorite, and let the race begin.

You know, they use very special bikes in time trials. But here are a couple of real antiques. I spotted these in the attic of the Château at Nyon, Switzerland. No speed records will be set riding these babies.

Here's another doozie! We found this in the village of Oingt. We had to get in line to take the picture - a wedding photographer was there first, using it as a prop for the bride in her wedding dress.

And here is my "vélo d'appartement" - apartment bike - from our recent LDS mission in Lyon France. I would ride it on our patio early in the mornings, with encouragement from the passersby in the street one flight below. Some were revelers returning home from a night on the town; others were working stiffs heading off for an early start to their working day. I could imagine I was riding the Tour de France - at least I was in France.

Three Reasons the Time Trials Will Not Decide the Yellow Jersey

2015-06-30T23:10:00.000-07:00

!. There are only two days of time trials, and only one individual time trial (ITT).

2. The time trials are too early in the Tour, especially the ITT.

3. The time trials are very short, especially the ITT.

1. Only two days of time trials, only one ITT: In 2012 the Tour de France had three days of ITT. The 2013 Tour had two days of ITT, with also a team time trial (TTT) for a third day. That extra day or two of ITT gives a distinct advantage to the GC contenders with time trial prowess, over GC contenders who might not be strong in time trials. Because the 2015 Tour de France has only one ITT, the advantage for a strong time trial rider is minimized.

2. Time trials are too early in the race: From 2011 through 2014 the Tour’s final ITTs were in Stages 20, 19, 17 and 20 respectively – i.e., late in the 21-stage race. This year, the only ITT is the very first stage. When the ITT is late in the race, the then-leader has the advantage of riding last in the ITT, allowing him to know throughout his ride the pace he must match in order to keep his lead. This worked very much to Vincenzo Nibali’s advantage in 2014 when the ITT was Stage 20 – the second-to-last stage of the race. With his rivals all riding before him, his team could tell him by radio the pace he needed to ride in order to preserve his leading time margins. But when the ITT is the first stage – as it will be this year – no one will know whose pace to match, nor how many seconds of difference in Stage One will be needed to win the Yellow Jersey by Stage 21. Even the TTT (Stage 9) is early in this year’s Tour – before any of the mountain stages of the Pyrénées or the Alps.

3. Time trials are too short: This is the biggest reason the time trials will not decide the Yellow Jersey in 2015. The Stage One ITT is only 13.8 Km long. The TTT (Stage 9) is only 28 Km. The shorter the course, the smaller will be the time differentials among the riders.

The Prologue (ITT) in 2012 was only 6.4 Km, and the Prologue time differences between the eventual Yellow Jersey winner (Brad Wiggins) and the next four riders in the final GC classification were between 3 and 21 seconds – hardly significant in the 3-week Tour de France. Wiggins’ final GC margins over those four riders ranged from 3 to 11 minutes. Obviously, the short ITT Prologue was a non-factor for the final GC standings. By contrast, in that same year the final ITT (Stage 19) was 53.5 Km long (almost 4 times longer than this year’s single ITT). In that longer race of 2012, Wiggins’ time margins over his 4 closest GC rivals ranged from 1 to 4 minutes. In an otherwise close GC battle, time differences of that magnitude in an ITT - especially near the end of the Tour - could mean the difference between winning or losing the Yellow Jersey. In 1992, Miguel Indurain won a 65-Km ITT with such dominance that he lapped his 6-minute man, Laurent Fignon! But this year, we do not have either a 53-Km nor a 65-Km ITT; but only a race of 13.8 Km. The potential time gain for the 3-week Yellow Jersey competition will be mere seconds, not minutes.

As for the Team Time Trial (TTT), again the course this year is fairly short. And any advantage for a strong time trial rider will be tempered in the TTT, because each team’s time is determined by the time of its fifth rider. This requires the strongest riders to “pull” the weaker riders along. On a team whose GC leader is strong in time trials, the teammates slow him down. On a team whose GC leader is weak in time trials, the teammates improve his time. The time differences in a TTT are not as dramatic as in an ITT of comparable length. In 2013, the teams of the final top 5 GC riders were separated by 25 seconds or less in the 25-Km TTT - a race very comparable to this year's 28-Km course for Stage 9.

Bottom line? The two days of time trial racing will not be critical to determining the eventual winner of the Yellow Jersey. This can be a good thing. It will allow the race to focus on other riders and other teams. There are many riders who are their own nations’ time trial champions, but who have no chance to contend for the Yellow Jersey. This year’s situation gives those riders and their teams a chance to fight for single-stage glory without being overshadowed by the Yellow Jersey drama.

Speaking of time trials ("contre la montre" in French - "against the clock"), here are a few French clocks:

Sundial on wall of château at Azay le Rideau

Sundial vendor at medieval fair in Perpignan.

Clock tower at gare (train station) in Limoges.

Clock at the Communal Hall, Guillotières, Lyon.

Clock at the old Brottaux Gare in Lyon. (Replaced by the new Part-Dieu Gare).

St. Nizier Church clock tower, Lyon.

Do Not Overlook the “Other Spaniard” – Alejandro Valverde Could Be GC Darkhorse

2015-06-13T13:02:00.001-07:00

Alejandro Valverde is the designated GC leader of the Movistar Team. Yet he is not even among the top five favorites to win the 2015 TDF Yellow Jersey, according to an Internet site for betting odds. His own teammate Nairo Quintana leads the top 5, followed by Nibali, Contador, Froome and Van Garderen.

Still, Valverde has been having a good year. He won two of the spring classics, La Flèche Wallonne and Liège-Bastogne-Liège. He won three stages in the Volta a Catalunya (Tour of Catalonia), and he won the Sierra Tramuntana Trophy in Mallorca. In addition, he placed 2^nd in the Tour of Oman.

The Movistar Team (so named since 2011) has a very long history full of glory, albeit under a confusing genealogy of names. During the 1980s as “Reynolds” the team’s Pedro Delgado won the Tour de France in 1988 and the Vuelta a Espana in 1989. From 1990 to 2003, the name changed to Banesto, during which time Miguel Indurain won the Tour de France five times and the Giro d’Italia twice. In 2005 the team, as “Caisse d’Epargne-Illes Balereas,” placed Francisco (“Paco”) Mancebo as the TDF’s winning young rider (White Jersey) in 2000, and overall GC 4^thin 2005. Already by 2005 Valverde was a rising star on the team. Valverde’s best results in Grand Tours were: Vuelta a Espana: 1st 2009, and seven other top-5 finishes; Tour de France: 2 top-5 finishes, including 4^th place in 2014.

Movistar inherited several of the strong Basque riders when Euskatel-Euskadi folded, including Benat Intxausti and Igor and Ion Izaguirre. Promising young Columbian rider Nairo Quintana joined Movistar in 2012, and could well be their new GC leader before long.

But, for now at least, Valverde is still the designated leader. In order to conquer the Yellow Jersey in the 2015 Tour, he will need strong support from Quintana, Intxausti and the other climbers. The odds-makers do not expect him to win, but I am sure that the so-called “favorites” will not overlook him in the decisive mountain stages of this year’s Tour.

A couple of Movistar news updates:

In May, Movistar’s Alex Dowsett set a new One-Hour record of 52.937 Km. This may help him secure a spot on the Movistar squad for the TDF. Unfortunately for him, a month later his record was broken by Brad Wiggins at 54.526 Km.

This week (June 7 to 14) Valverde and Movistar are prepping for the Tour de France as they ride the Critérium du Dauphiné. After Stage 6, Valverde was in 3^rd place, only 30 seconds behind race leader Vincenzo Nibali. But the next day in Stage 7 (June 13), Team Sky lit some fireworks in the peleton and rocketed their leader Chris Froome to the stage win, and from 9^th to 2^nd overall. Valverde could not match the firepower of the attack, so his teammate Benat Intxausti was allowed to leave him and try to keep up with the attackers. Valverde lost 2 minutes, but Intxausti finished in 4^th place for the stage, and moved up to 3rd overall, just 45 seconds behind current race leader Tejay Van Garderen. So, will Valverde be able to match the other leaders next month in the Grand Tour? Only time will tell.

The Movistar Team advance car, 2014 Tour de France (Lentilly - a village near Lyon- Stage 12).

The Movistar Team support car, 2014 Tour de France (Lentilly - a village near Lyon- Stage 12).

Valverde's former teammate, Francisco ("Paco") Mancebo (left), and Levi Leipheimer (yellow) fighting for supremacy in Park City at the 2010 Tour of Utah.

Mancebo still holding King of Mountains jersey after Park City stage, Tour of Utah 2010. He finished the race in second place overall, but lost the King of Mountains jersey in the last stage. He no longer rides the Tour de France, but is popular in the Tour of Utah.

Happy Dutchman Has Modest Expectations on New Team

2015-06-06T12:44:00.000-07:00

In earlier posts, I have predicted big things for Dutch Rider Bauke Mollema. (In my dyslexia, I had previously referred to him as being Danish. Ooops! Well, they both begin with “D” and Holland and Denmark are both up in that northwest corner of Europe. How else can I explain it?) Anyway, this may be the year for Mollema to steal some headlines.

He changed teams this year, leaving his career-long affiliation with LottoNL-Jumbo (formerly Belkin, Blanco, Rabobank, etc.) to sign with Trek Factory Racing. Indeed Trek considers him to be their new General Classification (GC) leader. Mollema loves his new team and his elevated status, and has set his sights on a top-5 GC finish at the Tour de France. He will have the services of some big-name riders as domestiques – namely Frank Schleck, Fabian Cancellara, Yaroslav Popovych, and Haimar Zubeldia. In addition, his TDF team could well include Matthew Busche (current USA Road Race Champion!), Bob Jungels (very promising new GC prospect), and veterans Grégory Rast and Gert Steegmans.

In this year’s 7-stage Tirreno – Adriatico race, Mollema clawed his way to the 2^nd place GC position on the brutal snow-covered mountain of the fifth stage. Then, in the sixth stage, he suffered a puncture with 70 Km to go. Cancellara and other Trek riders fought heroically to pull him back, from a deficit of 2 minutes or more, to rejoin the lead peleton and to retain his 2^nd place position. He will need this kind of team support to realize his dream of a top-5 finish at the Tour de France.

American rider Chris Horner (No. 114) and Dutch rider Bauke Mollema (No. 61), stage 12 Lyon, 2014 Tour de France.

Luxembourg rider Frank Schleck (No. 161) stage 12 Lyon, 2014 Tour de France.

Speaking of Frank Schleck, where is his younger brother Andy? Andy Schleck eclipsed his older brother in fan popularity, and in Tour de France laurels, winning the Yellow Jersey in 2010 and placing 2^nd in 2009 and 2011. Andy missed the 2012 TDF, due to crash-related injuries suffered in that year’s Critérium du Dauphiné. He struggled to make a comeback in late 2012 and through 2013, but retired in 2014 citing lingering effects of his injuries. As of March 2015 he announced plans to open a bike shop and café in his native

Luxembourg

. We will miss you, Andy.

"Andy" graffiti on a wall along the climb to the Col du Tourmalet (May 2011) - a testament to Andy Schleck's popularity with cycling fans. (Photo by Aaron Kennard)

More "Andy" graffiti - on the support columns of an avalanche shed - route du Col du Tourmalet, May 2011. Note the graffiti honoring Haimar Zubeldia (another Trek rider) on the first column. Note also the intrepid climbers Matt Jensen and Nan Kennard pushing up to the summit. (Photo by Aaron Kennard)

Scrambled Names – Opportunity Lost

2015-05-29T10:55:00.000-07:00

What is the value of a sports team’s name? Take the Yankees, the Red Sox or the Dodgers. These famous American baseball teams have changed owners over the years, and the Dodgers even moved across the country. But their names have remained constant. Fans have been buying their name-branded merchandise for generations. Advertisers pay a premium to be associated with those names. When such a team is for sale, a huge part of the value is allocated to the bundle of intangible assets known as “goodwill” of which the protected name is a major component. Can you imagine if those teams changed their names every year or two depending upon the changing landscape of advertising sponsors? The New York Wheaties become the New York Bud Lites, and then the New York Nikes? The Dread Pirate Roberts understood this concept perfectly! And what if the same companies advertise with (sponsor) multiple teams? You could end up with the Boston Geicos and the New York Geicos. How confusing would that be? Just think of the lost revenue opportunities from not having a time-honored name? The Yankees brand by itself is a veritable “golden goose.” Tossing that name aside in favor of a new sponsor’s name would be financial folly – not only for the team, but even for the sponsor. Association with the Yankees name itself multiplies the effect of the advertiser’s exposure as a team sponsor.

Yet the above scenario is exactly what happens with professional cycling teams. Many of them change names every year or two, as sponsors come and go. There are four Tour de France teams sponsored by lottery systems, and three of them have used or still use the word “Lotto” in their ever-changing names. It’s almost impossible to keep them straight. From one year to the next, it is very hard to tell which teams are new and which ones are successors to teams from the previous year. For die-hard fans who follow all the teams through all the season-long races, maybe this is not a problem. But for the millions of TDF-only fans – those who only tune in each July for the “Grande Boucle,” the annual name scramble makes it very hard to develop lasting team loyalties. Forget the fans. What is the impact on revenues? It seems to me that the teams and their advertising sponsors are squandering a huge financial opportunity by failing to create and capitalize on a powerful and enduring brand name.

That’s my soap box. For more information on the ever-evolving names of the teams, see my prior posts at the following links: http://tourdefrancebypapaduck.blogspot.com/2012/06/pro-cycling-teams-in-general.html and: http://tourdefrancebypapaduck.blogspot.com/2012/06/more-tidbits-on-teams.html

Now, here is the list of teams invited to compete in this year=s Tour de France, along with a few notes:

17 UCI-Qualified Teams:

AG2R la Mondiale (ALM), France.

Astana Pro Team (AST), Kazakhstan.

BMC Racing Team (BMC), USA.

Etixx Quick Step (EQS), Belgium. Recently, Omega Pharma Quick Step (and lots of other names – including “Lotto” – before that).

FDJ.fr (FDJ), France. Recent name sponsor BigMat is gone. FDJ is the French lottery.

IAM Cycling (IAM), Switzerland. New team since 2013, sponsor is a Swiss asset management firm.

Lampre – Merida (LAM), Italy. Name has changed frequently over the years.

Lotto – Soudal (LTS), Belgium. Formerly Lotto-Belisol, and a long list of other name changes.

Movistar Team (MOV), Spain.

Orica GreenEDGE (OGE), Australia. Fourth year in the TDF.

Team Cannondale Garmin (TCG), USA. Merged from Garmin-Sharp (USA) and Cannondale-Liquigas (Italy). Both teams have a long and confusing history of name changes.

Team Giant Alpecin (TGA), Germany. Formerly Dutch team Argos Shimano. Another old team with a long and confusing history of name changes – and now a nationality change.

Team Katusha (KAT), Russia.

Team LottoNL Jumbo ( ? ) Netherlands. Formerly Belkin, Blanco (blank), Rabobank, Novell, WordPerfect, and other names.

Team Sky (SKY), Great Britain.

Tinkoff – Saxo (TTS), Russia. Formerly Dutch team Saxo Bank, with other names over the years.

Trek Factory Racing (TFR) USA. Descended from RadioShack (USA) and Leopard Trek (Luxembourg). Two old teams (USA & Lux) hot rivals, with long list of former names; merged a couple of years ago with Luxembourg registration. This year changed to USA registration.

5 Wild-Card Teams:

Bora Argon 18 (BOA), Germany.

Bretagne Séché Environment (BSE), France.

Cofidis Solutions Crédits (COF), France. Slight name change.

MTN – Qhubeka (MTN), South Africa. New team since 2013.

Team Europcar (EUC), France. An old team under various names; has new name and new vision for development of French riders since 2011.

4 Teams that have disappeared:

Euskatel - Euskadi (EUS), Spain. Basque team with distinctive orange kits (uniforms). They folded for lack of funding, and declining results. Basque riders with their wonderfully unpronounceable names can still be found on other teams.

Liquigas - Cannondale (LIQ), Italy. This team has merged with the US team Garmin. (See list of 2015 TDF teams.)

Vacansoleil (VCD) Netherlands. Folded end 2013 when sponsor withdrew.

Saur - SoJaSun (SAU), France. Folded end 2013 when sponsor withdrew.

Jeff Louder (BMC) on the verge of winning Stage 4 (Park City) Tour of Utah 2010. BMC is one team that has kept its name and image consistent over recent years.

Langeveld, Clarke & Vachon, leading the breakaway at Stage 12 (Lyon) Tour de France 2014. They are riding for Garmin-Sharp, OricaGREENEDGE and Bretagne-Séché-Environment respectively. For 2015, Garmin merged with Cannondale and now goes by "Team Cannondale Garmin."

Astana (light blue kits) riding together in the peleton to protect their GC contender Vincenzo Nibali (yellow jersey third from right) in Stage 12 (Lyon) Tour de France 2014. Nibali ended up winning the GC prize that year.

Ladagnous and Gallopin riding for two of the lottery sponsored teams - FDJ and Lotto-Belisol, Stage 12 (Lyon) Tour de France 2014.

The BMC team car following the peleton, Stage 12 (Lyon) Tour de France 2014.

The Trek team car following the peleton, Stage 12 (Lyon) Tour de France 2014.