Trade On Sports

I have now moved

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 08:53:00 +0000

This blog has now moved to http://petenordsted.com

LA Galaxy a lay selection in todays MLS

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 15:53:00 +0000

I have a few value selections for tonights US Major League Soccer.

LA Galaxy v New England

I feel LA Galaxy are more of a 40% chance to win this match than the 52% quoted. I suggest a straight lay of LA Galaxy @ 1.90/1.92. This is my selection for the weekend

Of a lesser note I have the following.

Kansas v Houston

Kansas -0 goals @ 2.13/2.27

Colorado v Chicago

Chicago +0.25 goals @ 1.99/2.12

I will updating readers of some developments beginning early next week.

Basically Trade on Sports will cease to exist and I will be going into partnership with a full time trader and we will be working together on a few projects

Madrid splash the cash but Barca still Champions League favourites

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:06:00 +0000

By Josh Allen

It may only be the start of July but already the 2009/10 Champions League is underway.

Barely a month since Barcelona triumphed in Rome, the first round of qualifying kicked off with Maltese champions Hibernians going down 2-0 at home to FK Mogren. While we are unlikely to see the winner in these early stages, there is nothing to stop you from picking the winner as the early odds take shape.

Taking the tag of favourites are the holders, Barcelona. The Catalans enjoyed a wonderful season last year, winning their domestic league and cup in addition to the Champions League. However at odds of 5.7 it may be wise to steer clear. Unlike their illustrious rivals, Barca have never been great at sustaining success and have only won Europe's premier competition three times compared to Real Madrid's nine. In addition the weight of history is against them, as no team has retained the trophy in its modern incarnation.

Second favourites are the aforementioned Real Madrid, who look better value at 6.4. Returning Real president Florentino Perez has taken it upon himself to build a new and improved team of 'Galacticos', spending nearly £200million in the process. During his first spell in charge, Madrid won the Champions League twice and with the possibility of even more superstars following the likes of Kaka, Ronaldo and Benzema through the Bernabeu doors, their odds are only likely to shorten.

But while it may be the Spanish elite that are grabbing the headlines, it's the English sides that have dominated the competition over the last few years. A Premier League team has reached the final for five successive seasons and in the last two year's, three of the four semi-finalists have been from the country. All four teams figure prominently in the betting, with Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool making up the top five favourites. The pick of the bunch look to be Liverpool who have an excellent recent record in the competition and are available at 10.5.

Finally if you fancy picking a dark horse, you could do much worse than back Inter Milan at 12.00. Jose Mourinho has now had a full season to stamp his influence over the Italian giants and if anybody has the management skills to cause an upset in this competition, it's the self proclaimed 'Special One'.

Value in tonights Major League Soccer

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 06:29:00 +0000

Just before I go off for a couple of weeks there are a few MLS fixtures this evening that I believe offer some reasonable value.

DC United v Chicago

The last 5 head to heads at DC read W1 D2 L2

I believe Chicago offer some value at 3.15 but am going to Lay DC at 2.38

Kansas v New England

New England have a poor away record and I believe Kansas offer the value at 2.28

Seattle v San Jose

I believe Seattles price is a little too short (I make them a 40% chance to win)and am going to side with San Jose on the Handicaps at 2.10 for +0.75 goals

The 2 sides feature in many low scoring games and should Seattle win by the odd goal then you are only risking half of your stake.

Terry’s Time Up at Richmond

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 14:14:00 +0000

At the halfway stage of the AFL football season it is a good time to assess how the season is shaping up.

What more can you say about Geelong and St Kilda? Both are undefeated and look likely to be contesting the AFL Grand Final. At the other end of the AFL ladder, both Richmond and Melbourne and languishing. Terry Wallace is the first coaching casualty of the year and in truth did lucky to make it this far after the embarrassing losses to Carlton and Melbourne.

AFL betting isn’t sure what to make of everyone else. Every week the AFL fixture has provided some greats games but the AFL results have been consistently inconsistent. Essendon and Collingwood have both had some great wins but they have also had some shocking losses.

Apart from the Western Bulldogs, Brisbane and Carlton none of the other 11 sides look like they have the remotest chance of doing anything in the finals once September comes around.

The same can not be said for the NRL rugby league where just one point separates the top five sides. It is an incredibly even competition and really there are a number of teams which are realistic chance to win. As such, the NRL odds are fluctuating greatly from week to week. Because of the parity in the NRL rugby league, the NRL results are providing some surprises.

Penrith has made a slow and steady climb up the ladder and Cronulla just won successive matches to see it rise from the bottom of the ladder .In their place is the Roosters and Brad Fittler must be firming in NRL betting as the first NRL coach to be sacked in 2009.

Speaking of sacked, Andrew Symonds’ Ashes campaign is over before it even begun. Even though he wasn’t named in the original squad for Ashes 2009, there were some whispers that he would stay on for the Ashes following the Twenty20 World Cup. This would provide some back-up for the inexperienced Australian side should they have had some difficulties coping with the rigors of Ashes cricket.

For around 18 months, Symonds has proved a distraction both on and off the field and the team had enough with his antics. His banishment from the tour could spell the end of his international career. He may continue on as a Twenty20 specialist and could do quite well from that. His style of cricket is well suited to the shortest form of the game.

David Wiseman is a sports journalist and analyst who works for Betfair Australia. He is folling all this summers sports action, and can't wait for the Ashes 2009 to begin.

Professional Poker Prop Bets

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 18:45:00 +0000

One of the favorite pasttimes of professional poker players are prop bets. In many live poker games, prop betting is used as a way to alleviate boredom and make some money at the same time. The World Series of Poker is famous for having pros make substantial prop bets related to events or even during games.

One of the more unique prop bets occurred during the early stages of the $10,000 Omaha Hi-Lo World Championship. The bet is whether American President Barack Obama will come to the Main Event of the World Series of Poker and play at least one hand.

For a while, odds were being laid at 50,000:1 and 100,000:1. At least one person took action of 100,000:1 for $1 and another person put up $20 on 25,000:1 action.

Of course, it is unlikely that Obama will make the trek to Las Vegas for the event. However, if he were to make the visit, it may go a long way to garnering support for making online poker legal again.

Trade on Sports newsletter released this weekend

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 18:41:00 +0000

Just a quick update I am now away on holiday until Wednesday 01 July 2009 and so this blog will not be updated until then.

A note for members.

The next edition of the newsletter should be ready for release this Friday evening 12 Jun 2009. You should receive your newsletter no later than midday on Saturday 13 June.

This months newsletter includes a look at various strategies involving the Indian Premier League, the twenty20 cup cricket, the womens French Open Tennis and a look back over the past 2 football seasons and the NBA.

Should anyone wish to trial this newsletter then they can for £5. Payments should be made via Paypal to admin@tradeonsports.co.uk

It should be noted that this is the last time that this newsletter will be available to trial for this price.

Stuart Broad has a nightmare last over and value in the Major League Soccer

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 07:47:00 +0000

Well there have been an incredible couple of nights involving Twenty20 cricket.

In the Twenty20 cup on Thursday night Sussex won due to light failure with Kent trading one point at 1.05 and last night England losing against Holland in a dramatic finish trading from 1.02. Stuart Broad must feel terrible this morning as he could not have had a worse last over.

Twenty 20 has been criticised in some quarters as many of the games are one sided as has happened in this weeks twenty 20 warm ups. But when you do get dramatic turn rounds like the last 2 evenings it certainly increases the profits and wipes out all previous losses.

Although the strategy we now have is working very well I still believe there is room for some improvement and I will be working on this over the next couple of weeks.

I have had a look at the Major League Soccer this weekend and feel there are a few bets worth taking on.

Toronto v Los Angeles

Los Angeles draw a hell of a lot of fixtures and I believe they will not be beaten tonight and would suggest a Lay of Toronto @ 2.14

Dallas v San Jose

New England v New York

I think there is some value in backing the home sides in these 2 games as both San Jose and New York have terrible away records and at 1.96 and 2.20 dallas and New England will be the bets for me.

Good luck and have a great weekend

South Africa Beckons For Capello And Trappattoni

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 09:38:00 +0000

By Josh Allen

The next round of World Cup qualifiers gets underway this weekend with England, Wales and Republic Of Ireland all in action.

It's rarely a good idea to let your heart rule your head when it comes to football betting and this is particularly the case with international football. Every major tournament sees a huge amount of money placed on an England victory, often at very poor odds and as a result it's the bookmakers that go home happy, come the national team's inevitable demise.

However for many fans, qualifying has proved a rather more lucrative affair. England currently have a 100% record in their five matches and are sitting pretty at the top of group six. On Saturday they travel to Kazakhstan and while you won't get much value on another victory, if you do fancy the good form to continue, then there are worse bets to be had than the 2.12 on offer for Capello's men to win both halves.

Another Italian enjoying life as an international manager is Republic of Ireland boss Giovanni Trappattoni. The Republic are unbeaten in qualifying and have the chance to move into top spot with victory over Bulgaria. However a more realistic outcome looks to be the draw which you can back at 3.45.

Also of interest is the 2.98 on offer for under 1.5 goals. The two sides couldn't be separated at Croke Park and with a point good enough to keep the visitors comfortably ahead of third placed Bulgaria, Trappattoni's men could look to stifle the hosts and try and catch them on the break.

Finally for those Welsh fans amongst you, this weekend could provide a rare opportunity to follow the heart and make some money. Wales travel to Azerbaijan and while their qualification hopes may be as good as over, John Toshack's men will be keen to build on a recent upturn in form. Azerbaijan have yet to score a goal this campaign, so the 2.58 on offer for a Welsh clean sheet looks a good bit of value.

Bulldogs continue to bark loudly

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 13:46:00 +0000

The Sydney Bulldogs proved their NRL Rugby League credentials with a determined win over Melbourne. With both sides in good form, the Bulldogs simply had too many answers for the Storm.

With the extra man on the field and the disallowed try which should have been awarded, the Bulldogs have been through their fair share of controversy in 2009. They should have an extra four points to their credit. Even without these, they are sitting on top of the NRL ladder.

In other NRL results, West Tigers had to endure another close loss this time to the Brisbane Broncos. It was a good weekend for the Queensland teams with Gold Coast getting the points against Manly and North Queensland smashed Newcastle. Ahead of the State of Origin, the Maroons would be very pleased about this fact.

NRL betting wasnt expected a draw between Parramatta and South Sydney. Full time was called just as Souths were trying to kick a field goal from a scrum. Anyone who had bet on the juicy NRL odds for a draw would now be celebrating long and hard.

The Warriors had no answers for Canberra nor did the Roosters with Penrith. The Roosters now sit in second last place and would be last if it wasnt for the horrible year Cronulla is having.

But still Roosters coach, Brad Fittler, wouldnt be sleeping too well at night about the situation. NRL betting on who will be the next coach to be sacked is now starting to hot up. Will it be Fittler or Ricky Stuart?

Fittler should look to Panthers coach, Matt Elliott for solace. For a while Elliott was under the pump, but the underperforming Panthers have been able to turn things around and now sit in the upper half of the NRL ladder. A few wins can make that much difference.

The NRL is have a very exciting season and with the Ashes drawing closer, people are hoping Ashes 2009 will be as exciting. With the IPL over for another year, focus switches to England the Twenty20 World Cup. Following which Ashes 2009 will commence. After the fantastic 2005 series, everyone is looking for another terrific installment of Ashes cricket. There are some cricket followers who dont care for the game apart from when the Ashes are taking place.

David Wiseman is a sports journalist and analyst for betfair australia.

Attention turns to the Irish Premier Division

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 18:50:00 +0000

After my minor success on the Major League Soccer I am going to turn my attention to the other summer leagues in my search for value selections.

Indeed I have found a couple of interesting prospects in tomorrow nights FAI Premier Division fixtures.

Derry v St Patricks

I do not believe Derry are a 1.82 55% chance to win this match. Their last 5 home matches read W1 D2 L2 and their last 8 games head to head at home to St Patricks reads W3 D3 L2.

I would suggest St Patricks on the Asian handicap +0.5 goals @2.06 at Bet 365

Drogheda v Cork

I have no idea what the liquidity is like in these markets and if you will get your bets matched but the 1.68 currently available on Betfair looks good value. I believe Cork should be much nearer the 1.44 currently offered by Hills

Drogheda are on a terrible run at home and Cork have won their last 3 away

Cork win @ 1.68/1.72

So far the Twenty20 matches televised live from these shores are yet to live up to the incredible see saw games in the Indian Premier League last month. But hopefully this will change with the World Cup due to start at the weekend

Turning my attention to the Major League Soccer

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Sat, 30 May 2009 12:23:00 +0000

Although I will be watching the FA Cup final this afternoon to be honest it does not have that much appeal and I think they may as well start kicking the penalties now. Having just said that it will now be a 4-3 thriller and the best game Wembley has ever seen.

This summer I will be turning my attention to the other leagues and today I am looking at the Major League Soccer in the USA and have found a few games which I believe offer a little bit of value.

New England v DC United

I believe New England should be more of a 51% chance to win this match rather than the 38% quoted on Betfair. Head to heads over the past few seasons when playing at New England reveal a W3 D4 L2 for New England

New England +0.25 goals are priced at 2.15 on the Asian markets on Betfair but I am going to hunt around with the bookmakers and see if there is anything better available. As I am not sure how much will be matched in these markets.

LA Galaxy v Kansas

LA Galaxy are quoted as around a 45% chance on Betfair. I feel they should be nearer 55% and they have a recent home record against Kansas of W3 D2 L1 and they could be worth backing to win at 2.20

Seattle v Columbus

Seattle quoted as 46% chance to beat Columbus but I believe it should be nearer 37% chance. I have no Head to Head data on this match but would still suggest a small lay at 2.16

So to summarise New England are the bet of the day +0.25 goals on the Asian Handicap

Manchester United set to create history in Rome

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Wed, 27 May 2009 07:48:00 +0000

An historical evening is in store as Manchester United look to retain their Champions League title against Spanish champions Barcelona.

Barcelona have both Alves and Abidal suspended for the Champions League final and this will undoubtedly have a bigger effect than the suspension of Manchester Uniteds Darren Fletcher with Barcelona having to juggle around with their defence.

Looking at the previous encounters this season between British and Spanish clubs would also give optimism. Liverpool literally destroyed Real Madrid 5-0 on aggregate and Arsenal made easy work of Villareal at the Emirates.

Also the reality is Chelsea paid for missed chances against Barcelona and should despite debatable refereeing decisions be taking their place in this years final.

I expect a tight match with Barcelona having much of the ball as they did against Chelsea. But at the end of the day I expect Manchester United to posses the cutting edge.

I am going going Manchester United +0.25 goals at 1.69

Another Premier League season comes to a close

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Mon, 25 May 2009 08:37:00 +0000

So another Premiership season comes to a close and predictably the 4 teams that needed to win their matches yesterday did not record 1 victory between them. And indeed all 4 teams offered poor value to win their matches. I ended up collecting on both Aston Villa and West Ham.

I attended the Arsenal v Stoke game yesterday and do feel from the evidence in front of me that with both Hull and Stoke staying up this year next season could become a completely lopsided league.

I now believe we have a top 3 plus Arsenal, who can and will obviously compete when the current players mature and or they purchase a couple more experienced players. Next season depending on how Man City are managed I would expect Spurs, Man City, Aston Villa and Everton to be contending for the places below the top 4. But as for the rest of them in honesty you are looking at a sea of mediocrity.

In my opinion this will have a detrimental effect on the game in this country as you now have 3 leagues within a league. The likes of Hull next season will be targeting the games against the promoted sides similar to the way the top 4 now target the games against each other.

I also feel that the supporters of the top 4 clubs that buy season tickets are now paying to watch at least 25% of games which based on resources available are uncompetitive.
You only have to look at Arsenal now to see that season ticket holders are not turning up for these lower graded matches and are trying to sell their season tickets for these games. Yesterday there was a good couple of thousand empty seats.

Personally I am not a traditionalist and like to watch matches involving teams of equal ability. I would welcome a European league but then again I do not attend away matches or support 1 of the lower teams of which for the supporters of these teams the matches against the top sides will be eagerly awaited.

So next season expect a another tight finish again at both the top and bottom of the league but also expect the usual suspects to be involved.

A tense afternoon in store in the Premier League

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Fri, 22 May 2009 16:38:00 +0000

There are a few games this weekend that provide interest and despite the motivation factor I still think that those teams that need to win are still unrealistically priced. I realise on these occasions anything can and does happen. However previous form cannot be ignored. Over the past few weeks we have seen some odd prices in the Italian League and I would hope that the English league is a little less corrupt. But then again we thought that about our MPs.

I believe Middlesbrough are already down and West Ham Draw No Bet at 1.69 has to be reasonable value. I attended the Arsenal v Middlesbrough game a few weeks back and I thought that Middlesbrough were very poor.

Newcastles away record against top half sides is appalling and should we really expect Sunday to be any different? Again it has to be Aston Villa draw No Bet at 1.75

Hull v Man Utd is a difficult call although I still believe despite the team Manchester United will be fielding they do still offer some value. But here I am going to await market sentiment and further team news.

Incidentally despite Newcastles woeful form and the probability that they will be relegated there is some value in siding with them to escape relegation and Backing Hull at 2.87

As for the rest I believe both the Cup finalists Chelsea and Everton offer reasonable value in their matches away to Sunderland and Fulham respectively but am not really tempted as both will have their eye on next Saturdays encounter. Im not sure Arsenal should be priced as low as 1.33 at home to Stoke. I make them around a 1.50 chance.

In Scotland I expect both Celtic and Rangers to win but again I feel there is poor value in both of their prices. Possibly more so Rangers who have a tricky away match at Dundee United. I feel their price should be nearer the 1.9 mark rather than the 1.53 currently on offer. But again it is the motivation factor.

In summary there will probably be a few twists and turns on Sunday afternoon but I will be siding with West Ham to beat Middlesbrough and Aston Villa to beat Newcastle both Draw No Bet.

Forget superstition, these Black Cats could make you rich

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Thu, 21 May 2009 12:58:00 +0000

This Sunday the Premier League relegation battle will finally come to a conclusion and with four teams fighting for their lives there are plenty of interesting football bets to be had.

The final day of any football season is often littered with money-making opportunities, due to the fact many teams have nothing to play for. It has been a week of debate and discussion about whether Manchester United will field a full-strength side. Yet regardless of the rights and wrongs, with the Champions League final just three days later, there will be eyebrows raised if Sir Alex Ferguson plays even half of his first choice eleven.

Manchester United are not the only side likely to take their foot off the gas and with this in mind you can make an argument for backing any of the teams involved in the relegation scrap. However it is United's opponents Hull City who look particularly good value at 11/5. They know that a win will keep them up, have home advantage and face a side that will almost certainly see the game as a mere distraction.

Away from individual match betting, there is also a spot of value to be found in the 'to be relegated' market. To all intents and purposes Middlesbrough are down and odds of 1/25 reflect this. Newcastle United and Hull City are likely to attract the most interest but at 4/6 and 15/8 respectively it would take a brave man to back either team. Sunderland however, look a great bet at 9/1.

The Black Cats may have the points advantage and a decent goal difference to boot but they are also in absolute free fall. In addition, survival can only be guaranteed with a win and for a team that has managed that just once in their last 12 games, the task could well prove to be beyond them.

By Josh Allen

Back Online and a good start to the week

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Tue, 19 May 2009 17:33:00 +0000

Thankfully I am now back on line and back in the land of the living.

I have also had a very good few days barring the Irish Open golf where I lost a little money on Shane Lowry.

This weeks WTA Warsaw tennis has worked out incredibly well and the strategies I use have been very profitable in this opening round. The amazing thing is the liquidity is not so good but I have still been able to profit well. This continues after a decent Madrid Open last week. It will be interesting to see what happens next week when we get to the French Open. My thoughts are that maybe these lesser tournaments may be better to trade as the form and possible motivation is less reliable than in the top events but all will be revealed by the end of the month.

I must admit the tennis results so far this season for me although profitable have not been as good as the past couple of years however this past few weeks have seen me come right back on track.Experience has taught me that these things are always cyclic and providing you have full confidence in your system and you know that your system is profitable in the long term. Then you will not go far wrong.

I am also enjoying some success on the IPL and indeed as well as trading I am also enjoying this years competition immensely. These past few days have seen some incredibly close matches especially the last couple of games involving Kolkata. With the introduction of the English league next year I believe this form of cricket is well and truly here to stay.

Looking to the future I have now decided that I am going to do a little work on the Horse Racing. I believe if you can crack this then you can make some reasonable money on Betfair. I will be finishing my work in 3 years time and am hoping to be able to go full time trading by then.

I have never really looked at horse racing mainly due to current work commitments and time constraints. Looking around the other blogs it would appear that the learning curve is around a year before you start profiting consistently and I believe due to the sheer number of markets to be traded that this needs to be looked at and some strategies and systems formed.

The Gremlins have arrived

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Fri, 15 May 2009 12:34:00 +0000

Unfortunately the Gremlins have arrived and according to BT I will be without a phone for the weekend and they estimate fix time buy Tuesday 19 May 2009.

Obviously this means I will not be able to do my usual value selections for the football and will not be able to update this blog for a few days.

I was looking forward to trading this weekend and was even going to concentrate on the racing this weekend. However, it gives me a chance to mull over current strategies.

I may have a small stake on the golf if I can trust Betfair Mobile to work but we will see.

Back to the Future with Heritage Round

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Thu, 14 May 2009 12:38:00 +0000

The latest round of NRL Rugby League was a split one due to the representative games being played on Friday night. Despite the fact there were only four matches played, there were still some interesting NRL results. Newcastle got the better of Gold Coast, while Melbourne were too strong for a struggling Sydney Roosters outfit.

Many of the St George players had to back up from the Friday night and travel to the other end of the country for a game the next day. They were courageous against North Queensland it was only the freak talent of Jonathan Thurston which saw the Cowboys prevail. Despite this loss, the NRL odds of the Dragons dont look like being affected too much. They are still very popular in NRL betting.

Manly were incredible in defeating Brisbane up in Brisbane. Not only did they mount a huge comeback from 16-0 down, but they won their first match of the year without the services of Brett Stewart. There is still a long way for them to go but you have to start somewhere.

Round 10 is Heritage Round where rivalries are showcased and there is a full lineup of NRL fixtures. Brisbane hosts the Gold Coast while the Bulldogs take on St George in two massive Friday night matches. These four teams are all in the top 5 so there is a lot to play for. Although the Bulldogs have a game in hand the Dragons can take top spot from them with a win. If the Bulldogs win, they will open up a handy lead over the rest of the field.

The Roosters take on the Knights in what is a do-or-die game for them. The Roosters are second-last while the Knights are fourth so you could get some very healthy NRL odds on the Roosters.

Cronulla tackle Penrith with both teams not having the best of seasons in particular the Sharks whose season has gone from bad to worse to downright horrific. A win for the Panthers here and expect some NRL betting on Ricky Stuarts imminent departure as Sharks coach.

A timeless rivalry is Manly-Parramatta and the two meet on Sunday afternoon at Brookvale. Both sides will be keen for a win.

Speaking of rivalries, the Tigers and Rabbitohs meet at the Sydney Cricket Ground in what should be a fiery clash.

Not every team has a clear-cut rival for Heritage Round which means the leftovers have been paired up. Thus the Warriors host North Queensland while Melbourne will entertain Canberra on Monday night.

David Wiseman is a sports journalist and analyst who writes for Betfair Australia. He avidly follows all Australian sports, and is a particulr fan of the cricket, and is looking forward to the Ashes.

Newcastle to edge a tight affair tonight?

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Mon, 11 May 2009 08:52:00 +0000

Tonights Newcastle v Middlesbrough game promises to be an extremely tense affair. But I do detect some value in backing Newcastle.

Middlesbrough have lost their last 4 away matches against bottom 6 sides and in the last 2 seasons at home to bottom 6 sides Newcastles record reads Won 5 Drawn 4 Lost 0

I am going to keep the draw on my side and am going Newcastle Draw No Bet at 1.50

Another extremely frustrating weekend on the football with Arsenal losing very comprehensively yesterday afternoon.

I was spouting statistics to my mate before the game about how Chelsea had not won away against a top 4 side since beating Arsenal at Highbury, etc, etc.

Sometimes I just wonder whether it is best to just go completely the opposite way to what logic is telling you.

As for the rest of my weekend I had a nice win yesterday on the golf but I would have liked to have got involved a little earlier as due to problems on the London Underground by the time I arrived home Alex Cejka had already dropped 5 shots and was out of contention.

I also traded a little tennis over the weekend for a small profit. I must admit the last few weeks trading the tennis has proved extremely frustrating mainly due the rigidness of the system.

Alex Cejka a lay in the Players golf

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Sun, 10 May 2009 09:09:00 +0000

Alex Cejka is leading the Players golf by 5 shots and is currently priced at 2.6 and is paired with Tiger Woods in the final round.

I like these scenarios as during the round there will be plenty of decent laying and trading opportunities.

Initially I will be laying Cejka from the off but will not look to get too involved until the players reach a tough section of the course (holes 5 through to 8). As apart from the 1st the first four holes are quite benign.

I believe holes 5 to 8 will shape the rest of the tournament.

So far this week Cejka has played these holes 3 under whilst Woods is 2 over.

Obviously this is a completely different scenario. If the scores are similar and Cejka is standing on the 5th priced around 2.0 then this is the time to lay and hopefully back later for a profit.

If Cejka doesn’t run away with it the the next stage of the course to get involved would be holes 13 and 14. especially if some of the earlier starters are back in contention and playing the easier 15th and 16th.

No doubt there will be much drama but a Cejka lay for me and then I will wait for the 5th.

Arsenal to redeem themselves?

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Sat, 09 May 2009 07:48:00 +0000

Despite losing to Manchester United during the week in the Champions League Arsenal are yet to lose against a top 4 side in the Premiership at the Emirates (Winning 4 and Drawing 4). Also the last time Chelsea beat a top 4 side away was at Highbury in 2006. since then they have drawn 3 and lost 5, losing their last 4.

I will be attending this match and after Tuesdays disappointment I believe Arsenal will want to redeem themselves a little and I do not expect them to lose. Chelsea could be motivated by whatever happens to Liverpool and Manchester United in the weekends previous encounters but having attended Arsenal games for years it is rare they lose 2 big games on the trot and for the supporters they will be motivated.

I am tempted by the draw no bet option but i want to keep the draw on my side and in view of the stats presented above I will be laying Chelsea at 2.9

Everton once again the value

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Fri, 08 May 2009 10:06:00 +0000

This weekends Premiership matches seem to have thrown up a few value betting opportunities.

Everton v Spurs

Currently Everton are a 42% (2.38) chance I feel this should be more around the 62% mark. The Draw no Bet price should be around 1.69 and I believe this offers good value.

Bolton v Sunderland

Bolton are a 44% (2.27) chance and again in this match I feel they should be nearer 60% (1.66) I would take into account Sunderlands motivation and back Bolton Draw no Bet which should be available at 1.62

Fulham v Aston Villa

Despite Fulhams decent home record I only make them a 26% chance of beating Villa as opposed to the 36% available on Betfair. Once again Draw no Bet Aston Villa which should be available at 2.04.

Hull v Stoke

I rate Hull a 28% chance of beating Stoke and not the 44% (2.27) chance quoted on Betfair. My only reservations with this game is the lack of Premiership data available for these 2 teams and Hulls motivation to win the game but this for me is a Lay of hull at 2.27

West Ham v Liverpool

I rate Liverpool a 52% chance to win this game so I will be having a small lay at around 1.61

Of the above once again Everton look to be generously priced and that will be my main bet tomorrow.

I will be back later with Sundays matches.

Trade on Sports newsletter released tonight

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Thu, 07 May 2009 20:50:00 +0000

Just a quick note to members this months edition of the newsletter should be with you this evening along with the link for the forum.

This months edition includes charts for the Indian Premier League, The World Snooker Championship, NBA play offs and Masters Tennis along with a breakdown of the goals scored this season.

In the forum we will be looking at refining the strategies and I shall also be highlighting value bets with a staking plan for the football. I will also be discussing Foreign Exchange trading which may be of interest to anyone who spread bets on the financial markets.

Should you not have received your newsletter please let me know at admin@tradeonsports.co.uk

Champions League Semi Final Preview

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Tue, 05 May 2009 12:25:00 +0000

The thought of a second successive Champions League final between Manchester United and Chelsea may leave many purist football fans cold but, ahead of the second legs of this year’s semi-finals, the two Premier League rivals are in the driving seat to make it to Rome.

United head first to Arsenal on Tuesday aiming to protect, and more than likely, build on the 1-0 advantage John O’Shea’s unlikely goal gave them at Old Trafford last week in the first leg. While I believe the Gunners will put up a much better showing in front of their own fans this week, I can’t see anything other than Sir Alex Ferguson’s side winning the tie. Expect an early attacking onslaught from Arsene Wenger’s men but, with Rio Ferdinand now expected to play, the visitors will have enough to withstand any pressure and seal their passage to another final.

The game at the Emirates could end in a draw or even a 2-1 win for Arsenal which of course would not be enough for them to see off United to ensure Wenger ends another season trophy-less (the fourth in a row now, if anyone’s counting).

The eagerly-awaited Chelsea v Barcelona tie, on the other hand, looks devilishly difficult to call. Barca should have won the first leg by a couple of goals but a steadfast Blues back-line held out and earned a very creditable goalless draw in the Nou Camp.

As a result, I see the return at Stamford Bridge initially following a similar pattern with the Catalans attacking at will but being repelled by Guus Hiddink’s well-drilled outfit. Then, with time ticking on, Chelsea should finally realise a goal is needed to progress and, through Nicolas Anelka or the in-form Didier Drogba, they might just find it.

And then, where are we? Well, it’s United versus Chelsea again. Yawn.

Champions League semi-finals, second-leg football predictions
Arsenal 2-1 Manchester United
Chelsea 1-0 Barcelona.
Aidan Perkins is a sports journalist who writes regularly for Clubcall.