Trade On Sports

Serie A Strategy leads the way with 13 winners on the bounce

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Thu, 06 Dec 2012 15:57:00 +0000

It has been a couple of months since I last posted and I thought I would update on how things have been developing.

Firstly I will look at my ratings.

As some of you will know it is my goal to provide subscribers of my daily email 100 points profit a year and this is to be gained with following strategies and ratings on the US Sports NHL, MLB & NBA along with the Serie A.

Over the past 12 months the NHL has provided 40 points the NBA 14 points and the MLB 30 points with the Italian strategy 11 points up this season. So I am almost there but I also believe this can be improved on in time.

We had a spectacular play off season with the MLB baseball and in October we had 13 bets and 11 winners giving +12.23 points profit.

Last season on the baseball I officially finished +30.43 of which the results can be seen here.

During last season a colleague of mine did some tremendous work and has identified some great trends that were used during the play offs . On the MLB we are now at phase 3 of the ratings process and now it is just a case of tinkering to improve on the findings of the last two seasons. I am really looking forward to next season and am hoping for some very good returns.

This season in the NBA basketball we have literally tread water this season and although we are now on phase 2 of the rating process we are looking at this season primarily to get some data together. Last season was slightly different as the league had a lockout up to Christmas Day and so the games came thick and fast and so we need to establish that what we found is working.

As previously stated this season we are treading water somewhat but that can happen when opposing the favourite and in my experience you tend to go through these spells before having a good run. This seasons NBA results can be found here

The NHL is unfortunately suffering a lockout this season and this produced over 40 points profit last season of which the results can be found here. Hopefully there are rumours that part of the season can be salvaged.

This season we would look to improve on the results of last year and there is no question about it Ice Hockey is certainly one of the most unpredictable sports and this helps when we are opposing odds on favourites so I am hopeful we should be again in action after the new year.

The Italian SerieA strategy has again gone from strength to strength and again it looks as though we will see a solid profit this season. At this moment in time we have seen 13 winners on the bounce and the basic idea of the strategy is that you are opposing the low priced draw and siding with the home team whilst covering the 0-0 draw. The results can be seen here.

This strategy has now been solidly profitable for 3 seasons now and I cannot really see this changing as the draw is just ridiculously priced in some of these matches.

Also at the moment I am also experimenting with the French League and sending the ratings and picks to readers of my daily Email. I believe the French League could be very similar to the Italian league. However I am using this season purely to gather data and see if there is a profitable angle.

If you would like to receive my email on a daily basis that covers all the US Sports as well as the Italian League strategy then the cost is just £15 a month. At this moment in time I am limiting the number of people who can take this service and at the time of writing I still have 3 places to fill.

If you are interested in joining this service then it should be remembered that this is more intended for the more patient and experienced bettor and you are advised to be initially working from a 50 point bank. I have had in the past punters who are betting out of their pocket and as you can see by looking at the results losing runs are inevitable. So please ensure you are correctly capitalised before thinking of joining this service.

Details of the service can be found here

Going forward I will regularly review where I am with the ratings on this blog.

Profitable start to football season and testing of MLB ratings shows positive returns

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Mon, 10 Sep 2012 15:17:00 +0000

Well it has been a busy few weeks since my last post with the start of the Football season and my involvement with Premier Betting.

We have had a reasonable start to the season on Premier Betting and are just shy of 3 points in profit. I always feel that this is certainly the toughest time of season for betting on the Premier League and I always advise extreme caution as in my opinion the current season form does not start really revealing its self until after the October International break.

I’m also pleased with the way the software BetformPro is performing and the positive feedback we have received from the users. We devised this tool early last season and since January it has played a major part in our decision making process as you really get a feeling for how the game may pan out and where the value lies. Betformpro appeals to the more sophisticated punter or to stats geeks who really like to dig into the stats on the various fringe markets.

As far as my ratings are concerned then I have still kept a watching brief on the baseball and the system I have in place since I stopped betting has shown a 23 point profit so the system has shown over 40 points profit this season. This has given me great confidence going forward. Last year at this time with various sides displaying the end of season feeling and using the old system we had a disastrous run however the current system seems to have thrived during this period. It has obviously been frustrating to be out of the market but I had to give the new system a full and proper test before giving it the go ahead.

I am really hoping that the NHL lockout does not come to fruition as the ratings had a very successful season last year. This season I will be using the same system as last year but will be looking to make further improvements. The same can be said for the NBA.

I am also looking at the ATP Tennis but feel that much more work needs to be done before I can progress with some confidence.

Due to the success of my ratings I am going to put a cap on the number of people who can subscribe to my newsletter as I do not want to kill the goose that laid the golden egg. An awful lot of effort goes into devising these systems and the last thing I want is to possibly lose any edge we may have.

Since I started experimenting and using ratings for US Sports 2 years ago I have had to undergo a complete mindset change. Before I started using the Betting exchanges I was never really a punter and although I have no problem placing a few thousand pounds into a pre match football market to risk £100 on a trade the placing of over £100 on a straight bet was completely alien to me.

Ultimately this is an area I am moving into more and the US Sports seem to suit this ratings system.

I think the problem with trading that many newcomers have is that they are always looking for the perfect system or the ‘Holy Grail’ and it simply does not exist and so people try to complicate things and occasionally this can get frustrating.

I am often asked if the tennis strategy in my book is still profitable. Well it is but in my opinion it is an awful lot of work sitting in front of a computer ensuring that all the parameters are met before even being able to put on the trade and this in itself can prove very frustrating. Whereas with a simple ratings system all you are doing is following the system and backing the selection and then waking up to see if you are in profit or not. However obviously to make it worthwhile you have to place a reasonable amount on the selection.

Also I have continued my Italian strategy in the newsletter and the first two weeks have proved profitable showing +2.42 points. Here in this system essentially I am using a rating system to oppose the draw and back the home side. The last 2 seasons have seen some decent profits but thanks to the input of one of my members I am hoping this will significantly improve this season. I like betting on the Serie A because the results are fairly consistent particularly involving the mid to lower table sides but obviously you have to be wary comer April where some strange prices are seen concerning the draw.

Finally I will be releasing a supplement to the newsletter before the Ryder Cup highlighting a strategy that is good to use during the tournament and if you are interested in receiving this then please go here or for the newsletter prospectus click here

Rollercoaster ride betting the MLB

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Mon, 13 Aug 2012 18:07:00 +0000

Well it has been a bit of a rollercoaster ride with my baseball ratings this season and now we have reached the stage of the season where last year more of the favourites won and the ratings went on a particularly bad run as some teams began to fall out of play-off contention. Consequently I am not using the same rating system until the playoffs start again.

As already mentioned this baseball season has seen some highs and lows. Initially things started well with the profits hitting +18.46 at the end of May before retracting to +5.95 points in the middle of June this then surged to +17.78 at the end of June before again falling back to +1.51 points in the middle of July before again recovering to +18.20 from the beginning of this month.

So as can be seen from the above betting on baseball is extremely streaky at best but when you do hit a good run the profits are there. I always advise that people are well capitalised to deal with these losses but even my confidence was tested over the last few couple of months.

It is goal in my newsletter to eventually be able to provide my subscribers with 100 points profit a year covering the Baseball, Ice Hockey, Basketball and ATP tennis.

So far over the past 12 months I have hit +71.93 points profits which is broken down as follows:

Baseball +18.20 Points

Ice Hockey +33.13

Basketball +14.38

Italian football +6.22

Total +71.93

Thanks to input from some members I have also learned a hell of a lot from when I initially started creating these ratings namely that in order to have confidence in the process and system you are building consistency is key.

For example this year in the baseball I have been comparing my ratings to the starting prices offered by 3 leading bookmakers whereas before I was comparing the rating to the Pinnacles price at the time of producing the rating. I can now see how flawed my approach was.

I have also received some valuable input on the basketball and my Italian Football strategy so hopefully we will go through a period of continual improvement.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the Ice hockey this season. I will be following the same approach as last season but will also be reporting all value positive or negative of 2.50% or above to see if there are any further angles which can be exploited.

I have also added ATP tennis into the mix now where I have a member in Spain who provides me with his ratings here gain I am just initially testing the ratings and there looks to be some good trends in backing any selection that offers over 10% value.

The only thing I dont like about this approach is that the system recommends backing some odds on favourites and this generally goes against my principles. He has now provided me with around 6 weeks worth of ratings and so I shall now look to see if there are any other trends that develop.

Hopefully the ATP tennis will provide further ammunition and my goal of providing 100 points profit in 12 months worth of selections will not be far away.

I think anybody who creates or is thinking of creating their own rating system the key is initially to have the discipline and be consistent with your compilation of your ratings and how you compare them to what the bookmakers are quoting .

This is key going forward as after you have enough data you can then follow with confidence any trends which may appear. it has certainly proved fruitful in my case

If you would like to see a prospectus for the newsletter please click here

Preparing for the new season

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Tue, 07 Aug 2012 10:16:00 +0000

Well it has been a while since the Euros but I am now back refreshed and raring to go with the new football season just 10 days away.

I have been fairly busy over the close season and have produced another book The Foundations of Football Betting which was released on Monday and the details can be found here. The book is also now available on Amazon and ITunes and retails for between £4 and £5

This is going to be the first of a series of EBooks which we hope will cover every aspect of betting on football. The fundamentals book too many could be the most boring book however it is certainly the most important and if you can master these disciplines then hopefully the profits will follow.

If you would like to find out how you can get a free copy of this Ebook please go to Premier-Betting.com and sign up for the free Weekly Insider where we will release details of how you can get a copy in this weekends issue.

Some people have asked if we were releasing another premier betting stats book but unfortunately for the publishers this is just not commercial enough as essentially the book is out of date once the first ball is kicked in the new season.

Also we have been working on our software BetformPro of which you can see a video below. We have now been working on this software for 18 months and were able to use a basic version of the software from January this year and this has really helped in sourcing some good betting opportunities.

This software/ database really saves some time when we are sourcing the weekend bets as I can quickly identify if any market offers any value.

The great thing about BetformPro is that you can very quickly build up how a match is likely to played out based on how the teams have performed generally and against similar opposition in the past.

There is also an In Play version of the software which again is very useful especially if you are watching the game concerned as if you can combine the way the game is unfolding with the two teams previous stats when in a similar scenario at a certain point in the game then you have a pretty powerful tool whether betting or trading on the game. We will certainly be using this tool extensively this season both pre match and In Play.

If you want to find out more about this software then simply head over to betformpro.com

Euro 2012 Final Prediction

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Sun, 01 Jul 2012 08:53:00 +0000

Sunday 01st July

Spain v Italy Kick off 19:45 BST

This should be a fascinating encounter and there certainly looks to be some value in siding with Spain to win this game at 2.20.

Our assessment sees value in the following prices

Spain -0.5 @ 2.10+ / Italy +0.5 @ 2.22+

over 2 @ 2.13+ / under 2 @ 2.19+

Obviously there is a strong trend in finals for the game to be low scoring and the price of Under 2.5 goals is ridiculously low.

Edo has a slight lean towards Spain and although I believe Spain offer good value I fancy the Italians to be triumphant

Of more appeal maybe Spain to keep a clean sheet which is priced at 2.10 and this allows for the 0-0 draw.

Trading Test Match Cricket

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Sat, 30 Jun 2012 08:05:00 +0000

This weekend I am releasing a Test Match special edition of the Trade on Sports newsletter. The 300 page document contains the scorecards betting charts and analysis of 34 test matches played in various contents over the past 2/3 years.

I really like trading test match cricket as it suits my trading style. I am one of these people who tends not to follow every ball of the match and I generally like to get involved in the following 3 passages of play.

1. At the Innings break.

2. At the start or end of a days play.

3. When a price hits a resistance point

I also like getting involved in the final innings of a game especially if the batting side are fighting to stay in the game. I find if you are not too greedy and set yourself realistic targets and price movements there are plenty of excellent low risk trading opportunities to be found.

Also I like to use Bet Angel when trading test match cricket because it allows me to set a trailing stop loss and this I find invaluable especially if a trade has moved in your general direction as at times you can profit by far more than you had initial set your target for.

The idea of bringing the data and price movement together in one document is that it keeps all of the matches together and it should then be easier to find a match where there has been a similar scenario in place as to the game taking place currently.

Then through looking at the charts you can then see where the price movements went after certain passages of play which in turn gives you the confidence to set up your trade knowing where your entry and exit points should be.

Trading test match cricket is more of a black art really and because conditions can be very different from game to game it is extremely difficult to come up with some exact strategies and although this document does not come up with any set strategies it does highlight some key price points that have proven to be successful trading points during a certain time in the match.

Also you will see during my trading notes that when certain trades did not go my way my losses where well contained and if you are disciplined trading test match cricket can be a very useful addition to your trading armoury.

If you would like to receive this months Test match Special newsletter please go to http://petenordsted.com/newsletter for details on how to purchase it.

Euro 2012 Semi Final Predictions

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Tue, 26 Jun 2012 19:05:00 +0000

Semi Finals

Well we enjoyed a fairly successful Quarter finals with all 4 games going fairly close to the script.

These 2 semi finals are going to be very tight affairs and it would not surprise us if both of these games went the full distance.

Pete has now traded out of the Portugal to win the tournament bet/trade and Edo still has a couple of large plays on Germany to win the tournament and to progress further than Spain.
It will be very interesting to see if Italy can continue their historical dominance over their German rivals or will this trend be broken as in the quarter finals when Spain defeated France for the 1^st time in a competitive match.

In truth both of these games offer no real value although there is some small value in backing Overs.

Wednesday 27th June

Spain v Portugal Kick off 19:45 BST

This was a very tight fixture when the 2 countries met in the knockout stages of the last world cup finals with Spain coning out on top 1-0.

However since that match, Portugal has beaten their near rivals 4-0 in a friendly last November.
The asian handicap Market is priced about right and if you fancy either side we would look to get involved at the following prices

Spain -0.5 @ 2.06+ or Portugal +0.75 1.952+.

Over 2 @ 2.02+ / under 2 @ 2.32+,

correct score 1-1 @ 7.36+.

As for In Play it may be worth waiting until the action starts and if it is an open game Over 1.5 would certainly be worth trading after 15 minutes.
,
Thursday 28th June

Germany v Italy Kick off 19:45 BST

This game is priced about right in what is a very close game to call and historically the Italians have had the better of the Germans and the Germans have lost some very high profile matches to the Italians including a World Cup final and 2 world Cup Semi Finals.

Obviously this was some time ago but once Italy get into the knockout stages of any major tournament they have to be respected.

We believe the Asian markets are spot on for this game and our entry prices would be as below

As with the Spain game we feel the Overs offers a small piece of value

Germany -0.5 @ 2.14+ / Italy +0.5 @ 2.18+.

Over 2.25 @ 2.17+ / under 2.25 @ 2.15+.

Euro 2012 Quarter Finals

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Wed, 20 Jun 2012 07:25:00 +0000

Please see preview of 1st 2 Quarter finals I shall add the 2nd 2 matches later this week

Pete backed Portugal pre tournament and I will keep my bet in place during this match.

Edo’s bet of Germany to win the tournament is also looking fairly solid at the moment.

Thursday 21st June

Czech Republic v Portugal Kick off 19:45 BST

These 2 sides met in the group stages in the competition 4 years ago with Portugal coming out on top 3-1.

A similar result could be expected here but we both agreed that Portugal make no real appeal priced at 1.83

Dutching Portugal to win by 1 or 2 goals pays 2.13 and looks worthy of consideration.

Despite the general feeling that these knockout games are low scoring affairs there have been 3 or more goals in 8 of the Czech Republic’s last 13 Internationals and in 8 of Portugal’s last 12. So Over 2.25 goals look reasonable but we would like to see a price of 2.00 or more being offered before we would want to become involved.

Another viable option is Czech Republic team total over 0.75 which is currently being offered by Pinnacle @ 2.08.

Friday 21st June

Germany v Greece Kick off 19:45 BST

Germany are looking a strong unit in this tournament but are no value here at 1.37

Since the 2010 World Cup Greece have only lost twice in 20 matches so could be a tough nut to crack here.

Germany’s Asian handicap opened at -1.25, which we can understand; but the fact that the price was set at 1.87 would suggest that those odds should drift at some point towards the 2.00 mark.

Dutching the Germany win by 1 or 2 goals pays 2.06 and looks very worthy of consideration.

The total goals market opened under 2.75 @ 1.95 and has come in as low as 1.78. We totally agree with this early move especially for the trading potential the under odds have in this particular match.

Saturday 23rd June

Spain v France Kick off 19:45 BST

The line look pretty neutral in this match however there is just a hint of value in backing Spain to win this game @ 1.89 if you can get this price.

France suffered their 1^st defeat in 25 matches when going down 0-2 to Sweden on Tuesday evening whilst Spain was certainly made to work for qualification against Croatia.

Neither of these 2 sides has looked convincing so far and a tight match is certain. Although Over 2 goals looks a fair price @1.92

Sunday 24th June

England v Italy Kick off 19:45 BST

If ever there was a game that was destined to go to extra time and penalties then this is the one.

Historically there is nothing between the two countries and that is represented in the prices on offer.

If anything there is value in siding with England +0 goals @1.94 and Over 2 goals @2.11 also looks a fair price but to be honest we are neutral on this match.

The Half Time / Full Time result of Draw/Draw could be interesting to small stakes and that can be backed at 4.75

Euro 2012 Round 3 Predictions Groups C & D

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Sun, 17 Jun 2012 13:35:00 +0000

Again a difficult set of matches below and here the only thing we really feel is standout is that the draw in the Spain game is far too low and should be opposed.

As Edo highlights if you do fancy the draw then you are far better placing your money on under 2.75 goals @1.97

Monday 18^th June

Croatia v Spain Kick off 19:45 BST

Here the draw is priced far too low and Croatia cannot guarantee a place in the Quarter Finals as Italy are still to play what will in all truth be a dispirited Irish side.

Spain looks good value here and if news starts leaking through that Italy have taken an early lead against Ireland the probability is Spain will want to step things up.

Edo: draw 2.85....??? But Croatia gets +0.75 @ 1.90 and the total in the match is set at 2.75 odds on either way???? Come on...!!!

This line set looks like Frankenstein. I’ll sum it like this; LAY THE DRAW and if you believe that this match is such a high profile draw; then back under 2.75 @ 1.97. By the way MASSIVE odds on Croatia win at 8.80 at pinnacle.

Italy v Ireland Kick off 19:45 BST

Italy are no value in what is a must win game and Italy will have to win by 3 clear goals to guarantee a quarter final place.

Italy can be backed at 1.83 to win by the half time full time result or 1.85 -1.50 goals on the Asian Handicap.

Although again neither of these offers much value they are realistic given the circumstances

Edo: market prices on this match-up are way off from my perspective and the offers represent what is needed to happen. No bet or Ireland +1.5 @ 2.00+ and under 2.75 @ 2.00+.

P.S.: if di natale starts for Italy price on over’s should come in even further.

Tuesday 17^th June

Ukraine v England Kick off 19:45 BST

After the excitement of the game v Sweden; England now need a point to qualify from the group.

The match odds are priced about right but will England go for the win that may see them top the Group?

It looks as though France has the easier option facing a Swedish side that are already out of the competition.

I favour a slight leaning to Under 2.5 goals

Edo: out of all the matches in this round, this is the only match that I feel it’s offering neutral line sets; in my opinion no real edge anywhere.

Sweden v France Kick off 19:45 BST

A victory here should see France top the group and there is no real value in the markets.

It is very rare Sweden get turned over completely and dutching the France win by 1 or 2 goals pays 2.04 and looks worthy of consideration although again under normal circumstances this offers no real value.

Edo: Sweden plays for pride and the love of the game; markets obviously reflect that. Sweden +0.75 @ 2.00 or hold on to your cash.

Euro 2012 Round 3 Predictions Groups A & B

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 08:24:00 +0000

Round 3

We are now at the crunch stage of the group stage and in many of the games below we would want to see better prices before getting involved and so team news becomes crucial here.

Saturday 16^th June

Poland v Czech Republic Kick off 19:45 BST

In this match we have a winner takes all scenario where the winner of this game guarantees themselves a place in the Quarter Finals. However a draw would probably be enough to see the Czech Republic through depending on how Greece does against Russia.

Although Poland offer no real value at their current price of 2.30 they have won all 3 of the last 3 head to heads in Poland.

However we would not look to get involved unless you can get Poland on the Asian Handicap -0.25 goals @ 2.10 or better.

Despite there being 10 goals in the Czech Republic’s last 2 games 16 of Poland’s last 19 games have seen 2 goals or less.

This could well be a tight affair with so much to play for that Under 2.5 goals seems a reasonable play if you can get 1.92 or better.

Greece v Russia Kick off 19:45 BST

Despite dropping points against Poland, Russia still looked the better side and victory here would see them top the group and avoid meeting Germany in the next round.

The current price of 1.77 for Russia to win looks just a shade low and although they are rightly favourites and are undefeated in their last 8 encounters with Greece we would only advise backing Russia if you can get odds of 1.81 or better.

On the totals market we see an edge in probabilities by backing under 2.5 goals @ 1.91

Sunday 17^th June

Portugal v Netherlands Kick off 19:45 BST

Pete based his tournament bet on Portugal on the fact that they have had the better of the Dutch in recent head to heads with a W6 D3 L1 record.

I still believe Portugal will get through the group here and although both of these sides have looked disjointed I believe the Portuguese are good enough to get a draw here and the draw looks a reasonable option at 3.50.

Edo leans towards Portugal +0 goals @ 2.08

If the Netherlands are to qualify they are going to have to score at least 2 goals and at some stage the game may become stretched.

The Over 2.5 goal price of 1.80 makes for no appeal however it could be worth backing if 25 minutes of the game have expired without a goal and the game looks open.

However although the market is suggesting a high scoring affair the edge on probabilities is certainly on the unders and it is certainly worth backing under 2.75 if you can get odds of 1.94 or better.

Denmark v Germany Kick off 19:45 BST

Germany have been impressive so far and they will not want to slip up here and risk finishing 2^nd with the possibility of facing Russia in the Quarter final and they should progress here comfortably.

Germany offer no value at the moment and we would not look to get involved unless some significant team news pushed the Germany price out to 1.86 or better.

Once again goals look the order of the day for the Germans as 13 of their last 15 competitive games have seen 3 goals or more and the game could become open as the Danes will have to look for a victory. If the pre match Over 2.5 goals price hits 2.00 or better then we would look to get involved

Euro 2012 Round 2 Predictions Groups C & D

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Wed, 13 Jun 2012 08:10:00 +0000

Round 2
Thursday 14^th June

Italy v Croatia Kick off 17:00 BST

Historically Croatia has the better of Italy with a record that reads W3 D2 L1
Croatia also looked fairly impressive in beating the Republic of Ireland but as always the question has to be asked were Croatia good or Ireland poor?

We feel that Croatia got the best from a disoriented and somewhat nervous Ireland in their first match; while Italy in their opening match against Spain looked very effective and organised.

I like the look of Italy and feel if they can get through the group stages they could be a tough nut to crack and the generally available 12/1 to win the tournament looks of interest.

Edo suggests that Italy could go on and win the group from here

We lean towards Italy in the match -0.25 @ 2.02; but a fair price, in our opinion, should really be around 2.16.

Spain v Ireland Kick off 19:45 BST
There is no real value in backing Spain to win this match however this should be a comfortable night for the reigning champions.

Ireland are obviously a few levels below the quality and skill that Spain posses as a team; but the world champions seem a little off their passing game and their attacking men are lacking any real finesse. We believe if Ireland had not lost to Croatia the way they did the current price on Spain would not have come in this much from the opening line.

Pete states that In qualification Spain only defeated Liechtenstein by 3 or more goals and in the last World Cup Finals Spain did not win by 3 or more goals in any of the matches.

Ireland will be determined to leave the tournament with pride and dutching the Spain win by 1 or 2 goals pays 2.07 and looks a good option.

Edo states that experience had showed him that all matches are independent from one another, and if he must get involved then he will be backing Ireland +1.75 @ 1.926

Friday 15^th June

Ukraine v France Kick off 17:00 BST

This promises to be a fascinating encounter and France offer no value whatsoever at their current price of 2.10

Ukraine were very opportunistic against Sweden and taking advantage when opportunity arises is what a winning team must do if they are to progress.

Looking at the current market prices on this match, we once again feel that the market overlooks the home advantage and Ukraine +0.25 @ 2.14 looks reasonable value.

The only problem with Ukraine they have faced a distinct lack of quality opponents recently. However they did draw 3-3 with Germany back in November.

Incidentally they also lost 1-4 to France in June last year.

We also have a small lean on over’s if the current price improves to at least over 2 @ 1.96.

Sweden v England Kick off 19:45 BST

England have never defeated Sweden in a competitive match and the concern for England here is they are going to have to be a little more adventurous if they are to qualify for the next round.

There is also a distinct possibility that England could go home from the competition undefeated.

It seems to us that every time England are involved in a match at his level the market tends to be more subjective than usual and as both sides really need to win this game from our quantitative approach and current market prices; we are leaning towards over 2.25 goals @ 2.00

Euro 2012 2nd Round Predictions

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 15:36:00 +0000

Round 2

Well it has been a tough start to the tournament so far betting wise and we made a poor start to the 1st round of matches.

However trading wise the tournament has been fantastic. For example in both of the opening games Poland v Greece & Russia v Czech republic Over 1.5 goals was trading at 1.75 with only around 10 to 15 minutes gone and both games had seen chances and so entering these trades was really a no brainer.

Indeed in the Czech v Russia game after the 1st goal was scored Over 2.5 goals was trading at 1.90 and again this was a silly price.

Yesterday as well in the France England game Over 1.5 goals was1.69 at kick off.

Lets hope for better in the 2nd round of matches but as always these International tournaments are a minefield so we suggest keeping stakes low.

Tuesday 12^th June
Greece v Czech Republic Kick Off 12^thJune Kick Off 17:00 BST

Matches between these 2 teams tend to be very tight affairs with the head to heads reading Czech 1 Draw 3 Greece 0.

The Handicap line offers no real value in a game that both of these sides will see as must win if they are to progress in the tournament further.

The Czechs looked to play some open football against Russia and if the game starts open then you should look to take on the Over 1.5 goals if it hits 1.80 after 15/20 mins.

With the current market prices we have no real thoughts on this match and neither side convinces us.

However should money come in for Czech Republic then we would suggest backing Greece +0.25 goals @ 2.00 or better but would not suggest getting involved other wise

Poland v Russia Kick Off 12^th June Kick Off 19:45 BST

It has been 5 years since these 2 countries have met and the head to head record reads Poland 1 Draw 1 Russia 1

After starting off fairly slowly Russia eventually got into their stride and looked impressive on the way to beating Czech Republic 4-1.

Poland on the other hand started well against Greece before losing their way somewhat in the 2^nd half and were lucky in the end to draw 1-1

Our odds suggest there is value in siding with a Polish side that will be looking to gain at least a point from this match.

We feel that the odds reflect Russias recent victory but the question has to be asked were Russia that good? or were the Czechs completely disorganised?

This is a crucial game for the hosts especially if Greece gets a result against the Czech Republic and we feel there is certainly value in the Poland +0.25 goals @ 1.90

However we prefer the goals market and would certainly look to back 2 or more goals if we can get 1.83 or above

Both teams to score also looks well priced at 2.00 and these goal markets we would prefer to a Poland victory.

Wednesday 13^th June

Denmark v Portugal Kick Off 13^th June Kick Off 17:00 BST

Denmark looked very organised when overcoming the Netherlands and they look value here against Portugal who they qualified above at the end of last year

However Portugal does have the better of the head to heads which reads W7 D2 L3 and this is a game Portugal really needs to win if they are to qualify to the Quarter Finals.

We feel that Portugal should be favourites however they should not be odds on favourites and Denmark can be backed +0.5 goals at 1.95 with 188 Bet and this offers value. However in truth we have no real preference in a market that is probably best avoided.

Of more interest though both teams have scored in all 7 of the teams previous head to heads and the 2.10 offered by Stan James for both teams to find the net looks of value.

Netherlands v Germany Kick Off 13^thJune Kick Off 19:45 BST

Historically the Netherlands have a reasonable record against Germany which reads W6 D9 L8 However the momentum is with Germany who are currently in great form and their victory against Portugal was the 11^th in a row including the qualifiers.

Germany can be backed at +0 goals at 1.81 with Pinnacle and this looks a sound play given recent form.

The game could contain goals in the qualifiers the Dutch were the highest scores with 37 goals and 9 of Germanys 11 games in this European campaign has seen 3 or more goals.
If you can get anything Over 2.09 for Over 2.5 goals then this would be a value choice.

Euro 2012 1st Round Predictions

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 04:50:00 +0000

Well the Euro 2012 tournament starts tomorrow and I have sat down with my South American colleague Edo and we have come up with the following thoughts for the 1^st round matches along with various tournament selections.

We both believe that this is a tournament that is very bookmaker friendly and is far more subjective when it comes to making a selection due to the lack of hard data. Both of our styles favour the objective view of things which the normal league structures can offer.

However it seems that everybody has an opinion on this tournament so we thought we might as well give ours.

Our advice would be as tempting as it may be to keep stakes reasonable because anything can happen here.

Round 1

Friday 08^th June

Poland v Greece Kick Off 17:00 BST

Here we both like the look of Poland to beat Greece. In Head to head matches Poland come very much out on top with a W10 D2 L3 record and indeed Poland have won the last 4 matches hosting the Greeks.

So for both of us we lean towards Poland -0.5 goals @ 2.06 with 188 Bet

For his investment group Edo has backed Dortmund forward Robert Lewandowski to be top scorer of the tournament earlier at 31.49 and he has also backed him to score over 1.5 goals at the tournament at 2.17 and in a weak looking group the latter seems a good call.

Edo has also backed Poland to qualify from the Group at 1.73

Russia v Czech Republic Kick Off 19:45 BST

Here we both feel that the media are a little too strong on the chances of the Russian side and here we would suggest playing Czech Republic on the handicap +0.25 goals @ 2.01 with 188 Bet.

Edo is particularly strong on this selection.

Saturday 09^th June

Netherlands v Denmark Kick Off 17:00 BST

We feel that the bookmakers have got this game priced up about right and we believe the Dutch will start their campaign with a victory against a fairly resilient Denmark.

After looking at the handicap lines we feel that the best option in this game is dutching the Netherlands to win by 1 or 2 goals which pays 2.14 and is certainly worthy of consideration.

Germany v Portugal Kick Off 19:45 BST

Edo is very sweet on the chances of Germany and his investment group have backed Germany to win the tournament at a very nice looking 4.28 I would certainly not disagree with this and I also believe Germany are the strongest outfit in the tournament.

Edo has also backed Germany to advance further than Spain @ 2.03 again I feel this is a good selection as Germany in the Quarter finals would face a team from the weaker Group A whereas there is always the chance Spain may face a tricky tie against a resurgent France.

I like the chances of Portugal and have backed them at 21.00 to win the tournament with the probable intention of trading out later in the tournament.

As far as the game is concerned Edo comments that he likes the Germany price -1 goal @ 2.75 and would probably look to trade this in play should Germany take the lead early.

We both feel there will be goals in this game and Over 2.5 goals can be backed @ 2.00 with 188 Bet.

Sunday 10^th June

Spain v Italy Kick Off 1700 BST

Remembering Spains performances in the last World Cup when they only won by 2 or goals once (v Honduras) and the fact that Italy conceded only twice in the qualifying stages of this tournament we feel that Italy +0.75 goals could be the play here.

Italy are currently priced +0.75 goals at 1.99 with 188 Bet. Edo would personally like to see this price go odds against before becoming involved. I still think this is a reasonable play but am prepared to wait as I believe this price could move out.

For his investment group Edo has backed Fernando Llorente to be top goal scorer at 19.00 and has also backed him to score over 1.5 goals in the tournament at 2.37

Republic of Ireland v Croatia Kick Off 1945 BST

We are both in agreement here that Republic of Ireland will be well drilled by Trapattoni and indeed when playing Croatia the Irish have only lost once in 6 matches.

Edo thinks Ireland could be dark horses and has backed them to qualify from the group at 4.55.

Personally I am not sure about this however we are both in agreement that we like Republic of Ireland +0.25 goals at 2.03 with 188 Bet.

Monday 11^th June

France v England Kick Off 1700 BST

We do not have any real strong opinions here but with the line moving we both think there is value in England +0 goals at 2.26 with 188 Bet.

I personally can see this game ending a draw but I certainly would not be backing this with much conviction.

Edo has backed Karim Benzema to be the top scorer at 13.71 and has also backed him to score +1.50 goals in the tournament at 1.91. I feel the latter is definitely worthy of consideration.

Ukraine v Sweden Kick Off 1945 BST

With reports that the Ukraine side have come down with food poisoning the handicap line looks to have moved and at this stage we would not look to get involved in this game.

We will update nearer the time

Edo has backed Ukraine at 2.30 to qualify from the group

He has also backed Zlatan Ibrahimovic to be top goalscorer at 43.00 and to score +1.5 goals in the tournament at 2.57

I will update the blog with further thoughts as tournament progresses

Forecasting Football at the Royal Statistical Society

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Wed, 06 Jun 2012 17:54:00 +0000

Well I have had a busy time over the past week writing the new Premier Betting book which deals with the fundamentals of football betting.

This is the 1^st in a series of short E-books which deals with betting on the football markets. The next books will cover the win markets, corners & bookings, Asian handicaps and then finally In-play betting & trading. These books will be released over the coming year with the fundamentals book hopefully coming out before the start of the domestic season.

Tomorrow I am off to the Royal Statistical Society for a talk on Forecasting in Football

The speakers are Stuart Coles from SmartOdds who will be discussing Euros 2012: What can statistics tell us and John Goddard (Bangor University)who will be giving a talk on In-play betting strategies for English football match outcomes.

I will be interested to hear what Stuart has to say about Euro 2012 because I find betting on International Football to be extremely difficult as there is just simply not the solid data available like there is in the domestic leagues and consequently I tend to avoid betting on the matches. This is a big tournament for the bookmakers and it would not surprise me to see them profit substantially through this tournament.

To my mind this is more about opinion and momentum and with the tournament being so short luck plays a large part in the tournament also. I discuss this in my 1^st post for matchbook.com that can be found here

I am aware of John Goddards work having read a book Statistical Thinking in Sports. Hopefully I will come away with some hints or tips. These things are always worth going to even if you only come away with one good idea.

I generally find the only problem with these studies is that sometimes the conclusion they come to is stating the obvious and the findings are not really relevant to the betting markets. Or you are betting at such low odds that although they may offer some value they offer very little appeal due to the odds on offer.

If there is anything of interest in the talk I will post it on here over the next few days.

This months Trade On Sports newsletter is out now and this month I am looking at the first two test matches between England and the West Indies the latter stages of the Indian Premier League and a simple football strategy that has seen us profit by over 95 points through the season. I believe this strategy should hold its own throughout the Euros.

Going through my records I notice that I am holding an awful lot of data on test match cricket and next month for the newsletter I intend to put together a Test Match special highlighting the scorecards price movements and comments on the best trading opportunities. This will cover around 40 test matches over the past 2 years so it is a good sample.

I am hoping that by putting these matches together in one place various trends may appear and by having this data at hand should a similar scenario ever unfold we should have the relevant information available to take advantage should a promising situation arise.

I like trading test match cricket more than any other form of cricket and my style is to get involved either at the start or end of an innings the start or end of a day or when a price reaches a resistance point. The great thing about test match cricket is it is blindingly obvious when that resistance point is reached because the price does not move for an hour or so.

Finally we have now released information on what will be happening with the Premier Betting Silver & Gold services next season of which the links can be found below.

PremierBetting Silver Service Prospectus

PremierBetting Gold Service Prospectus

Make Proper Use Of Your Betting Bank

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Tue, 29 May 2012 13:21:00 +0000

In the last week since I posted the baseball has certainly gone through an up and down phase. At the time of my last post the baseball was standing at +12.47 points then over the next 5 days it rose to +18.46 before coming crashing down to +11.41 points with only 1 winner coming from the last 9 selections.

I find baseball to be one of the most streaky sports to bet on, one week you cannot seem to go wrong only for it to go completely the other way the next.

This is why I am keen on getting the tennis ratings sorted. During the winter months we have the Ice Hockey and basketball and by diversifying I’m hoping that if we do have a bad run on one sport this is countered by the other.

In the summer at the moment baseball stands alone and you can certainly suffer during a bad run. However I always say the key to profitable betting is ensuring you have enough funds & discipline to carry out a profitable back tested strategy without exception.

And ultimately the key to success is being appropriately capitalised with a proper betting bank.

I have come across so many people during the past few years who simply cannot follow a system because they are betting out of their pockets have no betting bank and do not look at things on a long term basis.

Far too many punters give up on a system after one or two bad results purely and simply because they allow a couple of micro events to dominate their thoughts and they continually focus their minds on the negativity of a few recent bad results and fail to look at the long term picture. Remember it is where you stand at the end of the season that counts.

I have been asked what is the best way to deal with the emotional aspect of these downturns?

And I generally reply take comfort in your betting bank that allows you to ride these bad stretches.

I think when undertaking any betting system you should treat your betting bank like you would if you where holding a stock.

For example if you were to purchase 150 Marks & Spencers shares at 3.33 in the belief that the shares were at some stage going to hit £4.00 your holding would be £500.

Now over the next 2 weeks the share price drops to £3.00 and your holding is now down to £450. Now if you still believe that your system says the price will hit £4.00 the probability is you are not really going to bail out at this stage because you accept that the price goes up and down continually over time and indeed most people who hold stock rarely even look at the price (unless of course it is particularly high or low).

So with this in mind how come we throw the teddy out the cot when Chelsea have not beaten Wigan and Manchester United have drawn away at Stoke.

The answer probably lies in the fact that many punters completely fail to understand that the only way that you are going to achieve a steady long term profit from football is to finance your bets from a sum of money that is set aside purely and simply for betting.

Backing the Underdog in MLB

noreply@blogger.com (Pete Nordsted) — Wed, 23 May 2012 13:40:00 +0000

Welcome to my new blog.

Now that the domestic football season has finished I thought I would start blogging again and share my thoughts and opinion on all things betting / trading related.

A lot of water has gone under the bridge since I last posted here back in September 2009 and it was around this time that I read a post from the excellent blog Green all over and the post can be found here

This post in itself completely changed my approach to betting and what really piqued my interest here was the fact that in baseball the very best teams rarely win more than 60% of the time so in effect any team can win any game.

If you are thinking of getting involved in the US Sports such as baseball always remember the following from Cassinis blog

In sports such as baseball, historical data shows that picking underdogs is the best way to "keep the wind" at your sports investing back. This may result in winning only 40%-45% of your selections, but the long odds means you'll have a positive return.

So let’s look at a realistic example. If you back a favourite in the baseball and want to show a reasonable return on investment of say 8% and you are backing favourites priced at 1.72 you are going to have to show a very unlikely 63% consistent strike rate and as we have seen the very best teams don’t produce this return consistently.

Now I know very little about baseball however, I do know about betting and this very information was enough to set me devising a relatively simple ratings system. During my initial experimentation the results were good and I found that opposing the home favourite that offered no value looked the best way to go forward. I also looked at opposing the away team that was favourite that showed no value but the results here were pretty neutral.

I then fully trailed these ratings last season and they produced a reasonable 22.50 Point profit but tailed off towards the end of the season shortly after the All – Star game.

Since then I have made improvements to the ratings system and I encouraged by the results looked at introducing the same principals to the NHL Ice Hockey and here again opposing the favourite has shown to be successful. I have found that if the ratings show there is value then opposing the favourite home or away has shown a nice profit of the results of which can be seen here . Interestingly if you would have backed the favourite that showed value you would only be up by 0.35 points.

I have also used this in the basketball and although this has shown a reasonable 14 point profit the only problem with this is that you still have the bookmakers overound to overcome as generally both sides of the spread are priced fewer than 2.00. However with the basketball I always ensure that I am receiving points and that my ratings are always highlighting at least 3 points value.

This season on the MLB the ratings are now up over 12 points after 92 bets and it is now my intention to do something with the Tennis. I do have someone who supplies me with some ratings for the ATP but I have yet to find the best way of utilising these so it is a work in progress.

Ultimately with the US sports and the tennis I hope to create a fund that will consistently return over 100 points profit a year. So far my return on investment is pretty good with the following.

NHL 163 Bets +33.13 Points ROI 20.32%

NBA 165 Bets +14.38 Points ROI 8.71%

MLB 92 Bets +12.76 Points ROI 13.86%

Combined 420 Bets +60.27 ROI 14.35%

Personally I prefer a style that is fairly selective that produces a reasonable number of bets and a reasonable return on investment as you do hear about certain Las Vegas gamblers who bet on anything that shows value. Their points return maybe larger but they will be having significantly more bets and a losing run betting in this volume can seriously dent the confidence.

Finally I really like these ratings based systems because it takes out all of the emotion, energy and background noise involved in making a selection. Management changes and team line ups do not come into it. It is just a case of going with the numbers and at the moment it looks to be paying off.

If you would like to receive these ratings then details can be found here