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EUR/USD Video for 4/15/2011

2011-04-15T20:34:00.002-04:00

2011-04-12T22:36:00.002-04:00

US $ Index Analysis

2011-03-27T23:47:00.002-04:00

EUR/USD

2011-02-19T21:31:00.002-05:00

I Look for another leg up on this pair. It is a tough read early this week so I went to the USD/JPY for some clues. To me it looks as if we might take another leg down into move fib territory on the 4hr chart. once we get into this 82.50-82.60 area I look for some dollar strength. If this is the case the euro should make another leg up to 1.378 then I see a fib retrace to 1.3600 area which will pick up buyers and possibly merit a test of the highs at 1.3861 and possibly a 1.3900 target 1 and then a 1.397 target 2 which will obviously bring on a strong push to 1.4000 pych level which I will sell off this level. It would be interesting if this level matches up with a weekly pivot level? We did hit WR1 Friday and that is where price stalled. If WR1 holds then downside will prevail. I will just play it accordingly to price action. We will see????

Quick EUD/USD Weekly candlestick pattern

2011-02-05T20:07:00.002-05:00

Just wanted to post a note on the EUR/USD weekly gravestone doji pattern on extensive tick volume. What this is telling me is sell sell sell next week? Let's see????

Merry Christmas!!!!! EUR/USD this week!

2010-12-19T14:40:00.003-05:00

Well my last post played out nicely for quite a few pips :). Now this week volume will be rather low, but I still see a set up in the works. I am looking for a retest of the 4hr 21 and trendline area inwhich I believe we will continue our downside move. I will look for a set up in the 1.325/30 area. Price could test the top of this zone. I believe in taking a long position during Asia on Monday and scale out in this zone. As we get higher in this zone I will look to start placing short entries. My $ chart is looking good as a conformation. Good luck this week and Merry Christmas.

Weekend Glance at EUR/USD

2010-12-03T20:08:00.002-05:00

Well after some bad employment numbers this week we have climbed within 50 to 60 pips of my target area which I have at the 1.382% fib extension at 1.3477 which also comes in confluence of the mid November resistance. I look for price to react in this area and could reach as high as 1.3500, but clearly will turn over and retest the 1.320/22 area of support. When price reaches this level it will be important and odds are it will break thru to the downside. If we get reaction we could expect a break of the 1.3477 highs. More than likely we will test the 1.297 lows. These are my thoughts for the next couple of weeks let's just see how it plays out?

Week of Nov. 15th - 19th EUR/USD

2010-11-13T20:26:00.003-05:00

EUR/USD

I look for price to retrace to the 1.3900 level where I will look for a short entry and target 1.3300 level. When price gets to 1.3600 this will be an important level to break. If price breaks 1.3600 then I believe we will reach 1.3300 as target 1. Here at the 1.3300 level price will react fairly strong and we can redraw fibs for further guidance. Early this week we could look for a long entry scalp up to the 1.3900 level or just wait for our short target.

Week of Nov. 15th - 19th. GPB/USD

2010-11-13T19:56:00.005-05:00

GBP/USD

Looking to take a long entry 1.608 area on candle conformation with initial targets set at 1.625 and 1.630 respectively. I look for price to test upper TL at 1.645 area. Price will react at each target and we can then draw our fibs to get a better idea of short term direction. It appears we are in a triangle which we must respect. If we get a break of triangle I will look for long entries and target my longer term fib targets.

Weekly Trade Ideas 10/25-10/29

2010-10-23T18:51:00.004-04:00

EUR/USD appears to be headed for the 1.410 area. We had a nice pullback to 1.385 area after a higher high which was also a 50% fib retracement. My target is 1.410 area first and if we get follow thru at this level we could target 1.425 next.

GBP/USD
If we can get price to close below the 1.565 level on a 4 hr candle I would look to short on a pullback to this level and target 1.5500 level. I will wait for conformation on this one as we are currently in what I call a fib war each way. 1.565 horizontal level of support will be the deciding level.

EUR/GBP
Price is setting at .8900 resistance. I will wait for a conformation close on a 4hr chart above this level and look to long on a pullback to it. I am anticipating a break of this level and a target of .915 resistance level.

Weekly Update EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

2010-09-25T19:43:00.001-04:00

Trade Plan for September 27 thru Oct 1
EUR/USD
I look for price to react here at the 1.3500 level which is a 50% fib retrace on a weekly chart and also a weekly 21. This should merit a return to 1.3000 level. There will be hesitation at 1.333/30 level but should push through this. I actually look for price to break thru 1.3000 level but some consolidation should occur here. If price closes clearly above 1.3500 level then a push to 1.3600 is in the cards.
GPB/USD
Price will reach 1.588/90 level and will react off of a 38.2 fib retrace on weekly. There is a possibility it will advance to weekly 100 ema and double top at 1.600 level. If price breaks and closes convincingly above 1.600 it should reach 1.646/47 which is 1.272 fib extension of the rise. On the way up price will respect the 100ema on the weekly and the 23.6 fib retrace at 1.625 level.
EUR/GBP
Price appears to have picked up more sellers at this level and return to the .8500 level 4hr 21 and will channel here for a while. I see it falling more then to the .84700 minor support level and then on to .8400 area 4hr 100 and daily 21 and 50% fib of the rise. This area will be critical and price will consolidate here for awhile.

EUR/USD Plan for today

2010-07-28T18:43:00.003-04:00

We are currently sitting below the daily central pivot which I believe we have one more leg down to the 1.2950 area. At this level I believe we will pick up some buyers and tecnically achieve a higher low on the 1 hr. The 4 hr chart has reacted off the 4 hr 21 ema which is to be respected. I plan for a long in these areas and look for price to trade back above the central daily pivot during the London session.

EUR/USD Trade Plan for early next week.

2010-06-19T20:23:00.003-04:00

Looking at the Euro for early next week I have come up with a couple of options for either direction. My bias is for the 1.24522 level to be broken and then a retest of 1.2400. The 1.2400 level should hold if this happens and I look for price to reach 1.262 resistance. Now if price breaks the 1.22414 level then I feel we will get a retest of the 1.2300 level and then continue down to 1.2130 level support.

Let's see what happens. I will try and update this plan this week.

Quick EUR/USD Play

2010-05-02T21:41:00.002-04:00

Looking for a long on EUR/USD at the daily M1 pivot @ 1.3214. We have some good support here on the 4hr chart. I expect a return to the daily central pivot @ 1.3295 or possibly 10 to 20 pips higher. Price could go to the daily M3 level @ 1.3331 in which I would look to short this pair at these levels. Good luck and happy pippin... :)

Weekly Outlook

2010-04-18T09:39:00.003-04:00

EUR/USD- Looking for shorts down to 1.338/1.340 level. Price should react here and decide on direction. If we get a break we will see price test 1.330 level, and then to 1.326 level. I do look for a test of 1.308 eventually, but might not happen this week. If price holds the 1.338/1.340 level we should see a retest of the 1.3800 level highs. We have a lot of news this week and there could be violent swings in price action so trade defensively..

GPB/USD- I look for a test of the 1.5690 resistance level where I will look to short this pair. I will start to pay close attention at the 1.5600 level, but I do expect price to move higher here. News could change things so keep a close watch on price action at important support and resistance levels.

EUR/JPY- I will stay in shorts down to 122.50 and scale here and look to reload shorts at the 123.50 level with a target of 121.50. This might not all happen this week, but for simplicity I give my direction analysis.

Good trading and watch the News...... :)

EUR at Resistance

2010-03-28T16:31:00.002-04:00

Looking at the EUR/USD we have broken another key level of support at 1.3435 and are currently testing this as resistance. I look for some shorts to be entering in the market at this level and can see price falling lower to 1.308 and 1.288 respectively over the next couple of weeks. Of course we will get reaction at other support zones as in 1.3300, 1.3250, 1.310, and 1.300. I am looking at a daily chart and these levels are very obvious at a glance. Price will react off 1.3250 and 1.300 substantially I believe and then continue it's push to 1.2880 level where I believe there will be a number of buyers. It's been awhile since I have posted due to time restraints. I hope to start posting more. If you read this leave me a comment to let me know you were here, and if I get enough comments I will start posting more. Until next time happy trading.

Week of February 7-13 Euro Dollar

2010-02-06T23:26:00.002-05:00

Looking at the EUR/USD going into next week I feel that Monday we will see some upward movement to 1.3960/1.4010 level. I would lean more towards the 1.4010 level but we could see rollover between the two. Once we hit these levels and start making lower lows and lower highs on 15 min chart I will look for shorts and enjoy the ride down. I have my first target at 1.3200 level and then a second target at 1.2970. It is possible we might hit target 1 next week and if so I see a retrace up to 1.3500 level and then down to our target 2 at 1.2970/1.2920. This target 2 might not happen until the following week of the 14th. it will depend on market volatility and fundamentals next week to help with timing. Let's see?

Looking at the EUR/USD

2010-02-01T19:25:00.002-05:00

Currently I have been using Fibs, pivots, and support and resistance levels to predict price moves. Currently I am in a long position that I just entered off a 15 min doji candle at a 50% fib retrace from the New York rise. My target on this trade is the daily R1 which lines up within 2 pips of my target 1 at the 1.382% fib extension. We are currently trading above the central pivot point with a bullish bias. This trade is actually counter trend to the daily and weekly charts. Counter trend trades are tougher and choppier than trading with the overall trend. Nevertheless I feel we are in a retrace up to possibly the 1.402 level. I would like to thank Lara at Forexinfo.us for all the Elliot Wave videos she is posting on her site. I actually have signed up for her service to help me learn Elliot Wave theory. So far I have enjoyed her service. I am still being mentored during pre London and London sessions as I need it. I am also looking more closely at fundamentals and following the news a little closer these days. I hope my Euro trade plays out, Let's see.

NFP Numbers worse than expected.

2010-01-09T20:47:00.002-05:00

Non Farm Payroll numbers reported Friday at 85K jobs lost and out of this loss 21K were government employees. Given this information GBP/USD risk appetite has increased and USD/JPY risk aversion has increased. I am bullish GBP/USD back up to 1.609 level resistance here price should react and retrace somewhat and then I look for another push to the upside possibly breaking thru this resistance up to the 1.620/23 level which is a 38.2 retrace of the drop from November 16th. This will obviously take some time to reach and with both the UK and the US economies struggling any news events either way will change short term sentiment. I still feel as if we will reach this level. Japan's government is strongly considering devaluing the Yen and this will surly impact things. Be careful as always only taking smart risk reward entries in the direction of sentiment and watch economic news reports for changes in sentiment. Good luck and I should start posting once each week. So we will see where we end up next week.

Gear up for some down trend trading. MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!!

2009-12-21T21:38:00.002-05:00

As I look at the Euro going into the end of the year I see incredible potential for down trend trading. Currently on the EUR/USD we have found support at the 1.4260 level with a nice doji candle that has formed on the Daily chart. If the low of this daily candle is breached we could see further downside to the weekly S1 and Monthly S3 levels. If the 1.4260 low holds we will see a possibly retracement up to the weekly R1 level which coincides nicely with the daily 21 ema. This pair has been riding the 5 on the daily for about two weeks. I look for a retracement anytime back to said levels and then continuation of the downtrend. The reason I say we could possibly fall to the weekly S1 level at 1.4170 is due to the fact that we have confirmed a close below the 200 daily ema to the downside. Price could bounce off this 200 and fall to 1.417. If this is the case I still would look for the retrace I mentioned earlier. The reason I think we could go up from here is due to the fact that the 4hour bollinger band is forming good support and doesn't look like it is welcoming price to the downside any further currently. Only time will tell. If I don't post again this week have a wonderful Christmas and Happy New Year!!!!!!!!!!

Looks like the begining of the drop

2009-11-28T20:19:00.002-05:00

Well I have been expecting the dollar to gain it's strength back and I am starting to believe this is the area we need to be looking to go short on all the Yens, pound, and Euro. If you are a swing trader all these pairs are attractive to the downside. I expect good pullbacks early this week and then look to go short around fib levels and areas of confluence like 4 hr 21 and levels of previous support turned resistance. The downside will be long and drawn out. Look to short on pullbacks to previous support breaks for low risk high reward entries. I am working with my mentor and I am learning so much and having a blast trading currencies. I will try to start posting weekly trade plans for record. Good luck to Lara and Jeff with their trading I hope all is well and the pips are flourishing! Take care.

It's been a while now.

2009-11-07T22:23:00.002-05:00

Well it's been a while since I have posted here. I have been trading with a professional mentor so time is limited. Once I finish my stint with my mentor I will continue posting. I am being mentored in Forex trading and have been playing the London and Eastern Europe times. I have been successful to this point and have strengthened my skills and entries. I do believe we will see down side on EUR/USD and GBP/USD over the next few weeks. Let's see

Still believe pound will roll over

2009-10-22T20:09:00.002-04:00

Well pound is still in this strong uptrend. I do look for some reaction at the 1.6741 level. If we get a close above this level and then get conformation then lookout it is going to test the 1.704 high. Just have to wait and see. When sterling is trending strong like this I believe it is best to trap and trade breakouts of triangles, flags, pennants, and bases. I just draw my trend lines on the 15 min chart and trade breakouts with conformations. Let's see what happens with this upward strength.

36 pips last night during Asian.

2009-10-20T19:29:00.002-04:00

Well I did not post last night . I did trade and took some scalps for 36 pips. Tonight I am going to go to bed early and get up and trade the London open. Still have a bias to the down side on Pound and Euro. I will be looking for good entry conformations during the early London trading. Dollar gained strength today so that should equal well for some downside tonight. Let's see?

86 pips on scalps tonight.

2009-10-18T20:24:00.002-04:00

Well I got in on some nice scalps tonight in the EUR/JPY and GBP/USD. I played the gap fade and used my swing levels and actually waited on conformation. I am up 86 pips and flat at the moment. I look for GBP/USD to fall to the 1.6120 level during London tonight. Euro is rolling over and Pound looks heavy so this is my bias. Let's see?