Trader Mikehttp://tradermike.net/enWed, 16 Dec 2009 19:54:57 PSTMovable Type 4.24-en http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/no33.771755-84.38065http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/http://feeds.feedburner.com/~fc/TraderMike?bg=&fg=&anim=" height="26" width="88" style="border:0" alt=""Subscribe with My Yahoo!Subscribe with NewsGatorSubscribe with My AOLSubscribe with BloglinesSubscribe with NetvibesSubscribe with GoogleSubscribe with PageflakesSubscribe with PlusmoSubscribe with FeedLoungeSubscribe with The Free DictionarySubscribe with Live.comThis is an XML content feed. It is intended to be viewed in a newsreader or syndicated to another site.December 16, 2009 Stock Market Recaphttp://tradermike.net/2009/12/december_16_2009_stock_market_recapStock MarketMichaelWed, 16 Dec 2009 19:54:57 PSTtag:tradermike.net,2009://1.3866The action has been pretty anti-climactic since the new closing highs two days ago. The indices just refuse to breakout of their trading ranges. Now that the Fed is out of the way, I'm not sure what will provide the catalyst to get us out of these ranges. I guess options expiration is a possibility but given the recent action I suspect the market will be pinned exactly where it sits now. Or maybe it'll take a move in the currency market to cause something interesting to happen in the stock market. As always, time will tell. For now I'm assuming that we're headed back to the bottom of the S&P 500's range but I'm prepared to get long if it shows strength and pops above the top of the trading range.





Trend Table

no changes

TrendNasdaqS&P 500Russell 2000
Long-TermUpUpUp
IntermediateUpUpUp
Short-termUpUpUp

(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend

*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.

]]>The action has been pretty anti-climactic since the new closing highs two days ago. The indices just refuse to breakout of their trading ranges. Now that the Fed is out of the way, I'm not sure what will provide the...December 14, 2009 Stock Market Recaphttp://tradermike.net/2009/12/december_14_2009_stock_market_recapStock MarketMichaelMon, 14 Dec 2009 19:38:14 PSTtag:tradermike.net,2009://1.3865New closing highs are the story of this day. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow made new 52-week high closes although all stopped just short of their 2009 intraday highs. I've been waiting on the S&P 500 to move out of its 5 week trading range and it's on the verge of doing so. I guess it's no coincidence that it's reached this point just in time for a Fed meeting. The market often reaches important technical junctures just ahead of a Fed decision. So we're setup for this Federal Reserve meeting to be a pretty big deal. I suspect we'll be above the intraday highs ahead of Wednesday's statement it will be up to the Fed to keep us there.

Volume wasn't stellar today but I guess I shouldn't expect too much ahead of the Fed meeting. For a change upside volume increased although it was below the 50-day average volume on the Nasdaq and S&P 500. We should see more volume starting with Wednesday afternoon's Fed statement and extending into expiration Thursday and Friday.



The small caps finally joining the party by moving above their November high. The price action looks pretty good but I'm not so sure about the volume. My data sources don't show volume for the Russell so I usually judge it based off of IWM and IWO. Those ETFs had below average and declining volume today. So that take s some gloss off of the price move in my mind.



Trend Table

All trends are "up" fo0r the second session in a row.

TrendNasdaqS&P 500Russell 2000
Long-TermUpUpUp
IntermediateUpUpUp
Short-termUpUpUp

(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend

*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.

]]>New closing highs are the story of this day. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow made new 52-week high closes although all stopped just short of their 2009 intraday highs. I've been waiting on the S&P 500 to move out...December 10, 2009 Stock Market Recaphttp://tradermike.net/2009/12/december_10_2009_stock_market_recapStock MarketMichaelThu, 10 Dec 2009 18:27:37 PSTtag:tradermike.net,2009://1.3864I've officially run out of things to say as the S&P nears completion of its fifth consecutive week in a sideways trading range. Hopefully this won't last too much longer...





Trend Table


TrendNasdaqS&P 500Russell 2000
Long-TermUpUpUp
IntermediateUpUpLat
Short-termUpLatUp

(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend

*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.

]]>I've officially run out of things to say as the S&P nears completion of its fifth consecutive week in a sideways trading range. Hopefully this won't last too much longer... Trend Table TrendNasdaqS&P 500Russell 2000 Long-TermUpUpUp IntermediateUpUpLatShort-termUpLatUp (+) Indicates an...December 8, 2009 Stock Market Recaphttp://tradermike.net/2009/12/december_8_2009_stock_market_recapStock MarketMichaelTue, 08 Dec 2009 17:14:35 PSTtag:tradermike.net,2009://1.3863We got some selling today but it was nothing to write home about. Volume was about average and the market remains range-bound. So there's really nothing new to say. I'm still focused on the S&P and its trading range. A test of the bottom of that range seems imminent and I'll be looking to get short if that support breaks.

There is one development in the S&P chart that I didn't draw. It broke its March uptrend today (on a log scale chart). That's worth noting but we have to keep in mind that it has broken several March uptrends this year only to establish new, less steep trendlines by making new highs.





Trend Table

Some deterioration in the short term trends...

TrendNasdaqS&P 500Russell 2000
Long-TermUpUpUp
IntermediateUpUpUp
Short-termLat(-)Down(-)Up

(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend

*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.

]]>We got some selling today but it was nothing to write home about. Volume was about average and the market remains range-bound. So there's really nothing new to say. I'm still focused on the S&P and its trading range. A...December 4 Recap: Back-to-Back Outside Dayshttp://tradermike.net/2009/12/december_4_recap_back-to-back_outside_daysStock MarketMichaelSun, 06 Dec 2009 19:20:06 PSTtag:tradermike.net,2009://1.3862It was a pretty wild session of Friday. Early on, thanks to the jobs data, it looked like the strong-dollar-weak-stocks relationship was going to be broken. The Nasdaq and S&P quickly ran to to new 52-week highs but then sellers got busy and pushed both indices below Thursday's lows. That created rare back-to-back outside days on both indices. Back in August 2006 Dr. Brett did a post which lists some stats about these rare occurrences. As you'll see he shows that these double outside days tend to "lead to bullish outcomes". I'd be surprised if that was the case this time because this type of action right at resistance seems really toppy to me. Despite the S&P and Naz ending the day positive the day looks close to a blow-off top or a buying climax. I guess time will tell but in the meantime I'll still be focused on the S&P's trading range. It closed right in the middle of its range and I think it's due for a visit to the bottom of that range.



In an interesting turn of events, the Russell 2000 outperformed the larger cap indices. I'm going to keep an eye on the November high. If it can breakout that will remove one bearish thing from the technical landscape that's been bugging me for weeks.



Trend Table

Some upgrades today which bring us back to having ups across the board. This makes me want to be a little more bullish but right now the month of sideways action in the S&P weighs more in my thinking than this trend table.

TrendNasdaqS&P 500Russell 2000
Long-TermUpUpUp
IntermediateUpUpUp(+)
Short-termUpUp(+)Up(+)

(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend

*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.

]]>It was a pretty wild session of Friday. Early on, thanks to the jobs data, it looked like the strong-dollar-weak-stocks relationship was going to be broken. The Nasdaq and S&P quickly ran to to new 52-week highs but then sellers...December 3, 2009 Stock Market Recaphttp://tradermike.net/2009/12/december_3_2009_stock_market_recapStock MarketMichaelThu, 03 Dec 2009 19:26:28 PSTtag:tradermike.net,2009://1.3861Despite the ugly close to today's session I don't want to read too much in to that weakness. That's because the S&P and Nasdaq are still a stone's throw away from new highs as well as the impending payroll report. My primary focus will be on the S&P 500's trading range. It tried to breakout of that range yesterday and today but the bulls couldn't keep it in new high territory. It's now back in the middle of that range and perhaps the jobs data will provide enough of a catalyst to finally break this range... one way or the other.


The Nasdaq had a similar rejection from 52-week highs. It's come a long way since last Friday's gap down opening print so a little bit of a rest/pullback shouldn't be a big deal. Levels I'm watching here are the 52-week high just over 2200 and the 50-day moving average.


The Russell 2000 continues to flounder near its 50-day moving average.


Trend Table

A few downgrades today...

TrendNasdaqS&P 500Russell 2000
Long-TermUpUpUp
IntermediateUpUpDown(-)
Short-termUpLat(-)Lat(-)

(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend

*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.

]]>Despite the ugly close to today's session I don't want to read too much in to that weakness. That's because the S&P and Nasdaq are still a stone's throw away from new highs as well as the impending payroll report....December 1, 2009 Stock Market Recaphttp://tradermike.net/2009/12/december_1_2009_stock_market_recapStock MarketMichaelTue, 01 Dec 2009 19:47:21 PSTtag:tradermike.net,2009://1.3860The bears seem to have let another opportunity slip by and are back on the defensive. Today the market basically recouped all of the Dubai related losses from last Friday. The S&P 500 is back near its 2009 highs and a push above that resistance could create a buying panic from any bears that are still around. My guess is that we won't get a breakout without some kind of catalyst. There are plenty of potential catalysts this week, like the Beige Book (tomorrow), ISM (Thursday) and Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday). But given recent action that could simply be the dollar weakening some more.




Trend Table

A few upgrades today...

TrendNasdaqS&P 500Russell 2000
Long-TermUpUpUp
IntermediateUp(+)UpDown
Short-termUp(+)Up(+)Lat(+)

(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend

*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.

]]>The bears seem to have let another opportunity slip by and are back on the defensive. Today the market basically recouped all of the Dubai related losses from last Friday. The S&P 500 is back near its 2009 highs and...November 30, 2009 Stock Market Recaphttp://tradermike.net/2009/11/november_30_2009_stock_market_recapStock MarketMichaelMon, 30 Nov 2009 17:46:26 PSTtag:tradermike.net,2009://1.3859We got some volume back in the market today and with that, I think, some clarity on how much the Dubai debt situation will affect our markets. Cooler, less worried, heads prevailed today after a mild attempt to sell off. But there was little change to the overall technical picture today. So I'm still watching the same levels I mentioned yesterday -- the late November range on the S&P and the 50-day moving average on the Nasdaq.



Trend Table

No changes

TrendNasdaqS&P 500Russell 2000
Long-TermUpUpUp
IntermediateLatUpDown
Short-termDownDownDown

(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend

*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.

]]>We got some volume back in the market today and with that, I think, some clarity on how much the Dubai debt situation will affect our markets. Cooler, less worried, heads prevailed today after a mild attempt to sell off....Thanksgiving Week 2009 Stock Market Recaphttp://tradermike.net/2009/11/thanksgiving_week_2009_stock_market_recapStock MarketMichaelSun, 29 Nov 2009 15:03:28 PSTtag:tradermike.net,2009://1.3858Well that was one of the more interesting holiday week that I can remember. The stock market continued to be the tail wagged by the currency (and other) market(s). The effect of the weakening dollar early in the week was offset by the Dubai debt woes at the end of the week. The result was an 11 cent gain in the S&P and an 8 point loss for the Nasdaq. It would be easy to call the week a wash but there are some bearish developments in financials (see GS and XLF below) and there's still the possibility of more Dubai related fallout.

The Nasdaq reacted to the Dubai news with a huge gap down on Friday. That gap closed the November 6th gap up. It rallied intraday to close back above its 50-day moving average. I'll be watching 2150(ish) and the 50-day moving averages for clues to where we head next.


The S&P is threatening to break below its late November range.


The small caps continue to be laggards. They struggled with the 50-day moving average in the middle of the week and now look headed to the November lows.


Duru pointed out Goldman Sachs to me. (He also has an entire post about its breakdown.) This former rally leader is now lagging badly. It took out its November low on Friday and looks worse than the Russell 2000. If Goldman's hurting the lesser financials (and other companies) can't be doing well.. can they?


Goldman is even doing worse than the broader financial sector. The XLF is still 3 to 4% above its November low but it appears to be rolling over after hitting the wall at its 50-day moving average.



Trend Table

A few downgrades

TrendNasdaqS&P 500Russell 2000
Long-TermUpUpUp
IntermediateLat(-)UpDown
Short-termDown(-)Down(-)Down(-)

(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend

*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.

]]>Well that was one of the more interesting holiday week that I can remember. The stock market continued to be the tail wagged by the currency (and other) market(s). The effect of the weakening dollar early in the week was...November 20, 2009 Stock Market Recaphttp://tradermike.net/2009/11/november_20_2009_stock_market_recapStock MarketMichaelSun, 22 Nov 2009 18:26:37 PSTtag:tradermike.net,2009://1.3857The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are back within their mid-October congestion zones. Absent any unexpected news or a big move in the dollar, I'd be surprised if they were able to move out of those ranges during this holiday week. But that's not to say that nothing will be moving during the week. We often see traders gang up and push some low volume stocks around during these holiday weeks. So it wouldn't surprise me to see some of those games on Wednesday and Friday.

The gaps down on Thursday and Friday are a little troubling but the Nasdaq actually looks like a pretty good risk/reward long above 2150 with a stop under Friday's low.


The S&P has a setup similar to the Nasdaq's but I don't like the risk/reward because 1100 should be resistance.


Trend Table

No changes

TrendNasdaqS&P 500Russell 2000
Long-TermUpUpUp
IntermediateUpUpDown
Short-termDownLatDown

(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend

*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.

]]>The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are back within their mid-October congestion zones. Absent any unexpected news or a big move in the dollar, I'd be surprised if they were able to move out of those ranges during this holiday week....November 19, 2009 Stock Market Recaphttp://tradermike.net/2009/11/november_19_2009_stock_market_recapStock MarketMichaelThu, 19 Nov 2009 19:25:58 PSTtag:tradermike.net,2009://1.3856Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.


The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.


The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.


Trend Table

A few downgrades today

TrendNasdaqS&P 500Russell 2000
Long-TermUpUpUp
IntermediateUpUpDown(-)
Short-termDown(-)Lat(-)Down(-)

(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend

*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.

]]>Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency...November 18, 2009 Stock Market Recaphttp://tradermike.net/2009/11/november_18_2009_stock_market_recapStock MarketMichaelWed, 18 Nov 2009 16:39:08 PSTtag:tradermike.net,2009://1.3855It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.




Trend Table

No changes

TrendNasdaqS&P 500Russell 2000
Long-TermUpUpUp
IntermediateUpUpUp
Short-termUpUpUp

(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend

*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.

]]>It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We...November 16, 2009 Stock Market Recaphttp://tradermike.net/2009/11/november_16_2009_stock_market_recapStock MarketMichaelMon, 16 Nov 2009 17:58:02 PSTtag:tradermike.net,2009://1.3854The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.





Trend Table

Everything is up once again...

TrendNasdaqS&P 500Russell 2000
Long-TermUpUpUp
IntermediateUpUpUp(+)
Short-termUpUpUp

(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend

*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.

]]>The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even...November 12, 2009 Stock Market Recaphttp://tradermike.net/2009/11/november_12_2009_stock_market_recapStock MarketMichaelTue, 17 Nov 2009 05:34:56 PSTtag:tradermike.net,2009://1.3853We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.



As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.



Trend Table

One downgrade

TrendNasdaqS&P 500Russell 2000
Long-TermUpUpUp
IntermediateUpUpDown(-)
Short-termUpUpUp

(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend

*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.

]]>We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns...November 11, 2009 Stock Market Recaphttp://tradermike.net/2009/11/november_11_2009_stock_market_recapStock MarketMichaelTue, 17 Nov 2009 05:37:30 PSTtag:tradermike.net,2009://1.3852The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)



The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...



Trend Table

No changes

TrendNasdaqS&P 500Russell 2000
Long-TermUpUpUp
IntermediateUpUpLat
Short-termUpUpUp

(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend

*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.

]]>The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been...nonadult