TraderArt

($EURUSD, $MACRO) German politics: Bail-outs? Nein, danke | The Economist

2011-09-25T11:14:00.002+02:00

http://www.economist.com/node/21530140

($EURUSD, $MACRO) £1.75 trillion deal to save the euro - Telegraph

2011-09-25T11:08:00.002+02:00

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8786945/1.75-trillion-deal-to-save-the-euro.html

2011-09-25T10:59:00.002+02:00

($EURUSD, $MACRO) Portugal's prime minister said the economy is expected to shrink 2.3% next year, worse than expected, as global growth slows.

2011-09-25T10:54:00.002+02:00

($JJC) A massive power blackout paralyzed crucial copper mines in Chile on Saturday and darkened vast swaths of the country including the capital Santiago before energy was largely restored, officials said.-Reuters

2011-09-25T10:51:00.002+02:00

($EURUSD, $MACRO) Billionaire investor George Soros, speaking on the sidelines of the IMF meeting, said that the crisis is worse than the global financial crisis in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the fall of 2008.

“In 2008 the right authorities to deal with the crisis were in place. Now they have to be created,” Soros said.

2011-09-25T10:48:00.002+02:00

$UBS Chief Executive Oswald Gruebel resigned on Saturday, taking responsibility for a recent rogue trading incident that cost the Swiss bank at least $2.3 billion in losses.

The board named Sergio Ermotti, the bank’s European head, as interim CEO and launched a search for a permanent successor, UBS said.

($MACRO) If leadership fails, prepare for recession - Telegraph

2011-09-24T09:55:00.000+02:00

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8785393/If-leadership-fails-prepare-for-recession.html

($EURUSD, $MACRO) Rescuing the Euro: The Fatal Mistakes of Berlin's Bailout Strategy

2011-09-24T09:51:00.002+02:00

http://spon.de/adtba

2011-09-24T09:38:00.002+02:00

($SPX, $SPY) There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty about the European situation and we jumping around constantly as each new headline or rumor hits. While many market participants aren't very optimistic about a solution they are also afraid of being squeezed by whatever talk emerges from the G20 meeting this weekend.
There are plenty of negatives out there and the technical picture reflects it. After the breakdown in early August, we have been bouncing around in a wide trading range for more than a month. We tested the upper resistance levels a couple of times on rumors and news that Greece was saved once again, but those moves didn't hold and the selling this week took us right to the bottom of the trading range around 1115 to 1120 of the S&P 500.
We held that level yesterday and managed a very weak oversold bounce on light volume today, but we are in a very precarious position. The testing of the support is weakening it and I don't believe the market will be able to do much to the upside until it breaches support and produces a capitulation event of some sort. Too many folks are hoping this level will hold, and the market always likes to crush any hope before it turns back up.-R.Shark

Cramer on $SPX, $SPY

2011-09-24T09:34:00.002+02:00

Oh man, true bear market action today.
"Don't be short ahead of what might be a deal this weekend over in Europe."
Believe me, there's not much more to it.
This is short-covering on rumors of Merkel getting her hands dirty or the IMF stepping up or a French TARP or a Middle East investment.
We don't get that? I think we go right back down Monday.

($AAPL) Samsung Sows Patent Confusion -WSJ

2011-09-24T09:29:00.000+02:00

http://on.wsj.com/pTRhEV

2011-09-24T09:23:00.000+02:00

($MACRO) The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dipped below 4%, possibly triggering a refinancing boom for many of the same borrowers who already have taken advantage of rock-bottom interest rates.-WSJ

($BAC) BofA sued by shareholder over $10 billion AIG loss | Reuters

2011-09-24T09:20:00.002+02:00

http://reut.rs/otlvHw

($FXI) Marc Faber about China

2011-09-24T08:44:00.002+02:00

"If we define a bubble as excessive credit growth and artificially low interest rate, then China has had a gigantic bubble. Now, will it collapse or will it just slow down, that is a different issue but some sectors of the economy will collapse."

Jim Rogers Blog: Latest CNBC Video Interview

2011-09-24T08:40:00.000+02:00

Jim Rogers Blog: Latest CNBC Video Interview: Topics: commentary on the recent market turmoil, currencies and politics; Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful...

2011-09-24T08:21:00.002+02:00

($GS) There is a rumor floating around that Goldman Sachs will report a loss!!!!

2011-09-24T08:18:00.000+02:00

$BAC is in major support right now and probably will rebound from these levels.

2011-09-24T08:13:00.002+02:00

$HPQ is lower that the March 2009 lows, is this a market tell?

2011-09-24T08:10:00.000+02:00

($SPX, $SPY) It wouldn’t surprise me if something market moving came this weekend from Europe or the Administration. There are rumors of a massive mortgage bailout promulgated by the White House to assist Fannie and Freddie. We will find out Monday.

2011-09-24T08:03:00.000+02:00

($GLD, $SLV) Precious metals prices plummeted on more selling. Probably some traders are in trouble with positions either with the metals or with other positions and are facing margin calls. We’ll find out sooner or later. In addition CME hiked Gold and Silver margins.

2011-09-23T18:45:00.000+02:00

I hope you all still hold your $EUO ETF (double short euro). Do not sell it yet.

2011-09-23T18:05:00.000+02:00

($EURUSD, $MACRO) Greek PM says is not considering early elections.
Greek PM says government is supported by a strong parliamentary majority.

Yes, sure I really believe you.

2011-09-23T18:02:00.000+02:00

($EURUSD, $MACRO) Spanish finance minister says new bank recapitalisation not needed for Spain.
Spanish finance minister says mixed messages from the EU are not helpful.

($EURUSD, $MACRO) ECB May Step Up Crisis Response Next Month, Council Members Say

2011-09-23T16:57:00.000+02:00

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank may step
up efforts to boost growth and ease financial-market tensions as
early as next month, Governing Council members said.
    Austria’s Ewald Nowotny and Belgium’s Luc Coene said in
Washington that potential measures include the reintroduction of
12-month loans to banks. Asked if an interest-rate cut is
warranted, Coene said while that wouldn’t help to bring down
longer-term borrowing costs, “the ECB has never ruled out things
beforehand.”
    “If the data in early October shows that things are worse
than we anticipated we will look at the kind of decisions we
have to take for that,” he said in an interview late yesterday.
    European policy makers are under pressure from counterparts
around the globe as their failure to contain the region’s
sovereign-debt crisis stokes concern the world is on the brink
of another recession. Their comments come as European officials
debate how to increase the size of their bailout fund to restore
confidence in its firepower.
    With money-market tensions increasing, the ECB has already
reintroduced a six-month loan and continues to offer banks as
much cash as they want at its benchmark rate in weekly, monthly
and three-month refinancing operations. It last conducted a 12-
month loan in December 2009.
    “The ECB will probably discuss reintroducing a 12-month
tender,” Nowotny told reporters in Washington today. “We could
perfectly do that when we feel there is an urgent need for that
-- I don’t think so for the moment, but it could be in two
weeks,” Coene said. The ECB council next convenes on Oct. 6.
                      Rate Cut Forecasts
    Economists at Barclays Capital, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and
Royal Bank of Scotland Plc predict the ECB will also be forced
to reverse course on interest rates after raising them twice
this year to curb inflation. The benchmark rate is currently 1.5
percent, compared with near-zero for the U.S. Federal Reserve
and Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England’s 0.5 percent.
    ECB policy makers are attending the annual meetings of the
International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington.
President Jean-Claude Trichet gives a speech here at 4:30 p.m.
    German council member Jens Weidmann said a new recession is
“unlikely” and the global economic situation is better than
current sentiment would imply. Even so, the risk that turbulence
on financial markets spills over into the real economy cannot be
excluded, he said, adding the ECB has shown in the past that
it’s “ready to provide the market with liquidity, also with
longer maturities if necessary.”
                         G-20 Pledge
    Finance chiefs from the Group of 20 yesterday pledged a
“strong and coordinated international response to address the
renewed challenges facing the global economy.”
    Many G-20 members pressed Europeans to follow through on a
July plan to expand the powers of the region’s rescue fund,
Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi told reporters.
    European parliaments are focused on approving the July
agreement to expand the scope of the 440 billion-euro ($594
billion) European Financial Stability Facility to allow it to
buy the debt of stressed euro-area governments, aid troubled
banks and offer credit lines. Its current role is to sell bonds
to fund rescue loans for cash-strapped governments.
                   ‘Problematic Discussions’
    “We really, really hope that it will be up and running by
mid-October, but you know yourself how problematic the
discussions in some countries are,” Nowotny said. After legal
ratification, it may take another six to eight weeks for the
EFSF to start intervening, he added.
    The ratification process has drawn fire from some investors
for being protracted and failing to provide the fund with enough
cash to prevent the crisis leaking beyond Greece. Curbing the
scope of policy makers to do more is the suspicion taxpayers in
AAA-rated countries such as Germany and Finland would balk at
stumping up even more rescue cash.
    That has fanned speculation Europe may eventually ratchet
up the fund’s spending power, perhaps by using the bonds it
sells as collateral to borrow more cash from the ECB. Another
proposal is to mimic a U.S. program established following the
2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. by allowing the
fund to offer the ECB credit protection for buying more
sovereign bonds.
                        EFSF Firepower
    “It is very important that we look at the possibility of
leveraging the EFSF resources and funding to have a stronger
impact and make it more effective,” European Union Monetary
Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said in Washington yesterday.
French Finance Minister Francois Baroin said separately that
policy makers “need the right firewall to prevent contagion”
and can discuss giving the fund “the necessary strength.”
    Weidmann has said he opposes turning the EFSF into a bank
that can refinance itself at the ECB as it would amount to
“monetizing state debt.” Coene also said he’s “not sure that
will be a good idea.”
    Coene signaled reluctance to step up the central bank’s
government bond purchase program even after the IMF said Sept.
20 the ECB “must continue to intervene strongly” in European
debt markets to “maintain orderly conditions.”
    “I think it has been a helpful element in the beginning
but of course it cannot be a structural element of the system,”
the Belgian central banker said. “The main reason was that we
wanted to keep the transmission of monetary policy as good as
possible until the moment that the EFSF will be able to take
over” the bond buying, he said.
    The ECB was forced to restart the purchases last month
after governments failed to convince investors they can solve
the crisis which, according to a research paper published by the
ECB this week, is putting the survival of the euro at risk. ECB
Executive Board member Juergen Stark, a co-author of that paper,
resigned this month to protest the bond program.
    ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio said in Frankfurt last
night that sustained bond purchases by the central bank would
only delay the fiscal adjustments that euro-area governments
need to make.
    So far, only seven of the euro area’s 17 governments have
ratified the upgrade of the EFSF.

2011-09-23T16:14:00.000+02:00

($SPX, $SPY) Most traders believe today we will have a short covering rally. Most of the time the majority is wrong!!!!