http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php Trading and Investing Forum Stocks Futures Forex en Mon, 28 May 2012 14:22:42 GMT vBulletin 60 http://www.traderslog.com/forum/images/misc/rss.jpg http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TraderslogcomCommunity-Blogs/~3/FBRxKEr7bKw/blog.php Mon, 01 Jun 2009 21:14:24 GMT Hog & Corn Comments 06/01/09 Feed prices continue to climb.
If you have questions, comments or suggestions, contact me at 1-877-212-2564 or email me at jknutson@hurleyandassociates.com. To read what I was thinking at the highs and lows of the market go to www.leanhog.net to view my archived posts.


CORN - July ‘09 Electronic
Open - $4.34 1/4, High - $4.45 3/4, Low - $4.34 1/4, Close - $4.45 3/4 Up $.09 1/2.
Thoughts - Long Term (Into September ‘09) - Bullish/Higher
May 18th I said: “The market took a nose dive on Friday compared to what we had been used to earlier in the week. Most of the sell off was due to profit taking going into the weekend and I we had some of that follow through last night as well. Most of the negativity was over within the first hour of trade in the day session today. I still have the June ‘09 $3.80 call options in place for feed needs and on Friday I purchased a $4.30 June ‘09 put and sold a $4.70 July ‘09 call option for 1/2 cent to lock in the $.50 difference between our $3.80 and $4.30 strike price options which was executed just in time right before the market dropped. I honestly didn’t expect that big of a decline on Friday but I wasn’t going to rule out a decline in today’s trade. I actually exited the position this morning at $.11 credit to give our position the upside potential again. I executed this trade within 20 minutes of the market open today and have been participating in the upward movement in July ‘09 futures.

The reason I bring the previous paragraph up is to let you know I was wrong on what I “thought” the market and the risk management principles that I exercised saved equity in our position. My point is to always try and do what is right and don’t get caught up in what you “think” will happen. No keep in mind it doesn’t always work this way because sometimes the market does do what you think but if you position yourself so it is win/win you will be a lot less stressed and live to be in business another day.

The trade action from today was quite friendly from the perspective because Sunday night’s open was a gap .02 3/4 lower than Friday’s low which usually means the market is getting too anxious about a move in the direction of the gap and then reverses. These types of gaps are usually at the top or bottom of a longer market move but for now it was at the bottom of this intermediate market move. This looks very friendly to me I am going to stick with the thought of a testing the $4.49 area to see if we can break through this level or not.”

July ‘09 corn: As noted above I have been looking for a test of $4.49 basis the July '09 futures and I think today was close enough therefore I exited the long futures I had on as a result of the $3.80 June '09 calls that were exercised into long positions in May. I had orders to exit at $4.48 but changed my mind and exited at approximately $4.41 for now with a buy stop at $4.53 if I am wrong. I am still bullish this market assuming the U.S. Dollar index continues its decline but at the first sign of slowing momentum I will be looking to protect any equity that I can in positions whether it is feed or crop production.

As of the market close I do have a sell signal for tonight on the hourly chart, it is a sell stop at $4.44 1/4 with a protective risk management buy stop .01 above the most current high or above $4.50. I also have a sell signal forming on the daily chart IF and only IF the market opens higher tonight. If the July '09 futures open above $4.45 3/4 then there is a sell signal generated at $4.45 1/4 STOP with a protective risk management stop above $4.50 which is near longer-term resistance. I think the market has done enough to the upside for the moment (Tuesday and maybe Wednesday) before we make a solid run at $4.49 1/4 and trying to close the market above this level.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early high and a late low tomorrow. I am expecting the one sell signal in the hourly chart to prove good tonight and the potential of the second sell signal on the daily chart to further a case to be out of long positions for the next day or two. Again, I will continue to monitor the $4.50 price level and if we close the market above that level for two consecutive days then I will adjust my position again but for now I will try and buy July '09 corn around $4.30 to re-enter the long positions I exited today.

July ‘09 Corn - Support/Resistance for 06-02-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $4.52
(R2) Resistance 2: $4.49 1/4
(R1) Resistance 1: $4.45 3/4
Today’s close: $4.45 3/4
(S1) Support 1: $4.42 3/4
(S2) Support 2: $4.40
(S3) Support 3: $4.36
__________________________________________________ _______________________

MEAL - July ‘09 Electronic
Open - $381.80, High - $393.90, Low - $381.80, Close - $390.80 Up $8.30
Thoughts - Long Term (Into September ‘09) - Bullish/Higher
May 18th I said: “I am still out of the meal market from an aggressive position perspective but we do have some bullish put spreads in place to give us some upside coverage while we assess the market. The cycle projector that I speak of frequently calls for a high on May 20th which has changed from what I have previously mentioned. It like most any analysis tool is calculated based on history and as we move forward history changes therefore changing my indicator. It isn’t much of a change but it is different from early last week’s version. I am looking for more follow through to the upside tomorrow as I look for grains to be higher across the board. If the July ‘09 futures open higher than $366.70 then that would produce a sell signal at $366.20 on a sell stop with a protective risk management buy stop above the most current high at the time of the fill for the sell stop.”

July ‘09 meal: I purchased a three way position in Aug '09 meal on May 19th which consists of the following: long an Aug '09 $360 call, short an Aug '09 $400 call and short an Aug '09 $320 put for a total premium of $3.50/ton which coverage until around the third week of July '09. I did this because I wanted flexibility in my position which this one provides. The position puts us long at $363.50 in the Aug '09 contract until we reach $400.00 and then we are also open to the downside until we reach $323.50 in the Aug '09 contract.

The July '09 meal contract has provided a longer-term sell signal on the weekly charts at $392.00 (which would have been hit today) with a risk management buy stop at $395.00 in the July '09 futures. This is a weekly chart therefore the buying and selling using stops could whipsaw you into pieces because for the this week and next week the sell stop signal will still be there sell signal at $392.00 no matter how many times your risk management buy stop gets triggered. This is the type of signal that I like to use options for because it gives you the time you need to let the signal/trade work.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early high and a late low tomorrow.

May ‘09 Meal - Support/Resistance for 06-02-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $393.90
(R2) Resistance 2: $392.20
(R1) Resistance 1: $391.70
Today’s close: $390.80
(S1) Support 1: $389.40
(S2) Support 2: $386.50
(S3) Support 3: $385.20

__________________________________________________ _______________________

HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX
Open - $63.70, High - $64.30, Low - $62.60, Close - $62.75 Down $1.175
Thoughts - Long Term (Into August) - Friendly
May 18th I said: “The June ‘09 contract sold off early today but managed to find support around the 62% retracement level from the most recent high back to the contract low. The June ‘09 contract had a good close as it held the 50% retracement level of $66.425 by settling at $66.775. The cutout number was down tonight but my thought is most of this has been factored in from last week when the trade was skeptical of cutout but it hung in there for the most part. The “weak” cutout that was talked about is now surfacing and I believe may have reverse affect on the market by moving it higher versus what logic says when negative news comes out.

I am of the opinion that today was a good day technically as we moved below the 50% retracement level, tested the 62% level and then popped back up and settled above the 50% retracement level of support, $66.425. I had a cycle low in the hourly chart today and I have the market trading higher tomorrow with a probable challenge to today’s high of $67.275 and beyond if we hit buy stops. There was also talk of Russia being back in the market for pork which is really what got the market moving higher again today.”

June ‘09 hogs: The June ‘09 contract has been much weaker than I anticipated over the last couple of weeks. I thought we could test the old contract low of $63.40 which we did on Friday the 29th ($63.50) and hold but that wasn't the case today. We moved through the $63.40 support level with relative ease as the market is still fearful of weaker product demand and as the market usually knows what the cutout will be prior to it happening called today's trade action properly as the cutout was down $1.34 today while cash was near steady per the USDA afternoon report.

If we do not close above $63.40 tomorrow then I would expect to see another leg lower in the June '09 contract unless we get the cash market to turn around in the very near future. The U.S. Dollar has been in a rapid decline and has a projected technical objective of 77.68 which isn't all that far away. If the dollar breaks this level of support then the next level will be the low of Dec '08 of 70.69. The export market should begin seeing some benefit of the weaker dollar index and it was reflected in the deferred months today with the Dec '09 contract up $1.375 for the day.

I do not have any hedges in place at this time as I wait for the weakness in the dollar index to take hold and move some pork however I am nearly out of patience. Most commodities markets in general have been a benefactor of "outside" money with the exception of lean hogs but the one positive I do see is that the funds are near a record short position and when they change their opinion of the hog market they have a lot of contracts to cover (buy).

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to make an early low and a late high in tomorrow’s trade.

June ‘09 Hogs - Support/Resistance for 06-02-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $64.34
(R2) Resistance 2: $63.875
(R1) Resistance 1: $63.40
Today’s close: $62.75
(S1) Support 1: $62.15
(S2) Support 2: $61.90
(S3) Support 3: New Lows


Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance. ]]> Jeremy Knutson http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=250 http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=250 http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TraderslogcomCommunity-Blogs/~3/rdisHRTMzpk/blog.php Thu, 07 May 2009 14:52:11 GMT MAY 7, 2009 The SP500 JUN’09 Futures contract is a little extended with 915.25 the inflection pivot for the session. If the MKT is not above this level it is vulnerable to a re-test of yesterday’s low area if not 887. Here the truth will be told. Above 915.25 and the Index continues to... MAY 7, 2009

The SP500 JUN’09 Futures contract is a little extended with 915.25 the inflection pivot for the session. If the MKT is not above this level it is vulnerable to a re-test of yesterday’s low area if not 887. Here the truth will be told.

Above 915.25 and the Index continues to search for resistance.

929 is the upside inflection pivot. If the MKT makes a push into this area especially early in the session and stalls it will have some potential for a decent exhaustive reaction. Any sales are counter-trend and will work best after a squeeze or REVERSAL signal. Respect the underlying positive momentum and don’t fight positive structure above 929. Only under 887 does sentiment shift.

For more pivot point analysis on most major liquid markets please contact me at info@jsservices.com or visit http://www.jsservices.com.

Best of luck and good trading.

John Slazas
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please contact us at info@jsservices.com. ]]> JS Services http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=249 http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=249 http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TraderslogcomCommunity-Blogs/~3/323-7L7s_v4/blog.php Wed, 29 Apr 2009 21:28:38 GMT CORN - July ‘09 Electronic Open - $3.84, High - $4.02 1/2, Low - $3.83 1/2, Close - $4.01 1/4 Up $.17 1/4. Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher Yesterday I said: “Not much has changed from yesterday as far as my thoughts are concerned. I still think we have good support in this area... CORN - July ‘09 Electronic
Open - $3.84, High - $4.02 1/2, Low - $3.83 1/2, Close - $4.01 1/4 Up $.17 1/4.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Yesterday I said: “Not much has changed from yesterday as far as my thoughts are concerned. I still think we have good support in this area and if you don’t have feed coverage in place for corn I would look to get coverage in this area. It was a relatively quiet day in the corn market not much to talk about so I will leave it at that. I am looking for an early low again tomorrow and a late high in the July ‘09 contract. We closed above $3.82 1/2 and if we do it again tomorrow then the market should begin to seek out the $3.95 area”

July ‘09 corn: Is it just me or do you want to say WOW too! I have no fundamental reason for why the market rallied today other than all of the moisture that has been coming down in the Midwest preventing producer from gaining progress in planting corn. I don't think this is any big deal because of the types of technology we have now and the amount of ground that can be covered in such a short amount of time. As we closed above $3.83 1/2 yesterday I said another close above $3.82 1/2 and it would open the door to $3.95 and today the July corn wanted to get that pesky task out of the way and fast! The funds bought approximately 12,000 contracts of corn which is the most they have purchased on a given day since the end of March, 2009.

I have some positions to manage as I said last week and yesterday I have a feed needs covered with a long $3.80 June '09 call option and I am short a $3.40 put in July '09. The reason for buying the June '09 call and selling the July '09 call is the June is priced off of July futures but it cheaper to purchase than a July because of the time associated with its life cycle. I sold the $3.40 July put for $.11 and today they settled at $.05 7/8 which is getting near a level of exit because I don't want to hold short options at minimal value if I don't need to. It has served its purpose thus far.

The double bottom we have in corn at $3.70 July '09 has since held as I suspected and as of right now the market is poised to test the most recent high of $4.17 1/2 BUT we need to get another close above $3.93 3/4 and preferably $3.99 1/4. Again, if you don't have coverage in corn I would suggest looking into a strategy to do so. I don't think I would chase the market at this point but I would have a plan ready for any price break we get. TALK WITH YOUR BROKER to make sure your position works within your operation and as always, do what is best for YOUR operation and not what some yahoo on the internet writes about!

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early high and a late low tomorrow. As mentioned I will be looking to exit the short $3.40 July '09 put option I have in place to avoid any additional risk that could be associated with this position.

July ‘09 Corn - Support/Resistance for 04-30-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $4.17 1/2
(R2) Resistance 2: $4.08 3/4
(R1) Resistance 1: $4.04
Today’s close: $4.01 1/4
(S1) Support 1: $3.98 1/4
(S2) Support 2: $3.94
(S3) Support 3: $3.91 3/4
__________________________________________________ _______________________

MEAL - July ‘09 Electronic
Open - $303.50, High - $320.30, Low - $302.50, Close - $320.30 Up $16.30
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Yesterday I said: “I said not in a hurry to buy meal but we didn’t get an early low and a late high like I thought we would today. I am staying with that thought for tomorrow because the hourly chart was searching for a short-term bottom today which I think will show up in early trade tonight. I am still looking for a test of $296.60 in the July ‘09 contract at some point and we may have a chance to get it in the near future as the rumor today was the Chinese were going to cancel some soybean orders. I look for buying to surface after early selling in tomorrow’s session.”

July ‘09 meal: As mentioned above I was looking for early selling today, which we got as we made our day session low in the first hour of trade and then from there it was all higher. I am expecting follow through buying tomorrow but I need a close above $318.90 to think we will have any shot at touching $337.20 again. I am looking for an early to mid-day high tomorrow and then have the market retreat going into the close. As I said the other day I was long $320.00 call options that were exercised on Friday in the May '09 contract and I rolled them to July '09 futures yesterday to avoid the delivery process in May. I will be looking for an area to protect equity in these positions tomorrow if given a chance because I am not sold on a higher meal market just yet as I think we will need to get through most of May before we get going to the upside again. I want ownership of meal but I don't think I would come into the market right now if I didn't already have purchases on the books. If anything I would use a limited risk strategy via options if you are just entering the market.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early high tomorrow and a late sell off tomorrow. I am short-term skeptical of the meal market but I will change my mind with two consecutive closes above $337.20 in the July '09 contract.

May ‘09 Meal - Support/Resistance for 04-30-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $337.20
(R2) Resistance 2: $323.20
(R1) Resistance 1: $321.40
Today’s close: $320.30
(S1) Support 1: $315.90
(S2) Support 2: $313.5
(S3) Support 3: $311.40

__________________________________________________ _______________________

HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX
Open - $66.10, High - $66.975, Low - $65.35, Close - $66.75 Up $.45
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Friendly
Yesterday I said: “Well June ‘09 hogs got hit again today, the only good thing is that we rallied into the close. There seemed to a decent number of buy orders coming into the market via the Globex. I said there was a buy signal for today at $68.90 on a stop today but we didn’t get there which turned out to be a good thing. I did move my positions around to provide more upside potential should we get a rally off of these new lows, I rolled down some call options that were out of the money down to $68.00 and $69.00 in the June. I was wrong on the early low and late high today but I think we should see this action tomorrow.

The cutout was down $1.44 today but it was up $.45 yesterday so with all things considered it isn’t that big of a decline in my book but on the same token I trying to be objective when looking at this situation and use logic when thinking instead of emotion and fear. The market and media does a great job of instilling the latter into us and it feeds on itself. When I look at the market I try to think about what I know about it. 1.) Swine Flu is providing plenty of negative press, 2.) packers will not do anyone any favors and why should they, it is business for them just as it is for the producer but it stinks they have as much control as they do. 3.) We CAN NOT get swine flu from consumption of pork so there is no fundamental reason at this time (other than import bans from other countries from the select states that have swine flu in the U.S.). 4.) I have a cycle low the end of this week week, 5.) we left a HUGE gap at $71.25 in the June ‘09 contract’s weekly chart and gaps tend to get filled.

After looking at all of this information I ask myself if I want to try and trade the market six times in a day to scalp some small gains for position myself for something bigger down the road. In my experience I have usually been happier with the positioning approach vs. the trading approach especially when it comes to events. The big thing is trust your research and have a contingency plan in place if you are wrong but you need to deal with the emotion and keep it under control as much as possible. If you will read the comments I wrote on Saturday the 25th, (click on the 25th on the archive calendar to the right of the screen) you will see what my thoughts were then and I wrote that in an un-emotional state.

The market will indeed prove me right or wrong from a market direction perspective but the bottom line is managing your positions and your equity and that is what I look to do. My CONDITIONAL buy order for tomorrow is IF we open below $65.65 in the June ‘09 contract then I would have a buy stop at $65.90 with a risk management sell stop about $.25 below the current low at the time of your fill.”

June ‘09 hogs: Well, the market finally took a breath from its recent retreat from the fears the public has associated with the H1N1 flu. The Department of Homeland Security and USDA have done a good job of trying to accommodate U.S. Hog producers by referring to the flu virus outbreak as the H1N1 flu or the 2009 H1N1 flu. I talked on Saturday in my comments (click here to read) what I thought would happen with the market and so far most has come to pass; I said we should see a sell off on Monday and Tuesday before settling down as well as talk about how many hogs may be killed in an effort to prevent the spread of this flu. Today we heard our first story the Egypt is killing off 300,000 head of hogs to prevent the spread of the H1N1 flu virus which they don't yet have. There was also a couple of reports that China was killing hogs as well to prevent the spread of the H1N1 flu virus which hasn't been found their either but I COULD NOT VALIDATE THE REPORTS ON CHINA so they are just that rumors at this time.

It is interesting to see the cutout down $1.54 today and the June '09 futures sell off by .425/cwt since the release of the cutout number only to move back to near unchanged as I write this. It feels like those that were going to puke positions have done so in the deferred months but as far as May '09 is concerned it is toast in my opinion. I am looking for the $65.35 area in June hogs to hold for now as we search for more "news" to trade. As I have said for a nearly a week new I have a cycle low projected for the end of this week.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to be lower tonight and be quite in-active until tomorrow where I look for a late high again.

June ‘09 Hogs - Support/Resistance for 04-30-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $68.32
(R2) Resistance 2: $67.20
(R1) Resistance 1: $66.825
Today’s close: $66.75
(S1) Support 1: $66.475
(S2) Support 2: $66.10
(S3) Support 3: $65.35

Visit www.leanhog.net to view cash hog reports.

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance. ]]> Jeremy Knutson http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=248 http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=248 http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TraderslogcomCommunity-Blogs/~3/ECL4xH4tPjI/blog.php Tue, 28 Apr 2009 21:21:36 GMT Hog & Corn Comments 04/28/09 - Hogs caught in aftershock of flu.
Visit the Swine Flu page of my website for updates on this issue.

CORN - July ‘09 Electronic
Open - $3.78 3/4, High - $3.86, Low - $3.76 3/4, Close - $3.83 1/2 Up $.02 3/4.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Yesterday I said: “It was all about the Swine Flu today and the negative press that comes with it. It is interesting to see human emotion take hold and panic which is what we saw last night and early this morning in the corn market. I said in my last post I was looking for $3.65-.67 to be tested again before we go higher (May ‘09 contract) and today our low during the day session was $3.66 and we never looked back. I have switched my focus from May ‘09 to July ‘09 because of the pending May expiration. I think this pull back is an excellent opportunity to further cover feed needs as I purchased a June ‘09 $3.80 call and sold a July ‘09 put today for $.08. There is good support in this area and this is the second time we have made a move lower like this only to come charging right back. We have a small double bottom for this move at $3.70 in the July ‘09 contract and I fully expect it to hold as our low unless we get a massive outbreak of the Swine Flu that actually requires killing pigs however I don’t see it happening.”

July ‘09 corn: Not much has changed from yesterday as far as my thoughts are concerned. I still think we have good support in this area and if you don't have feed coverage in place for corn I would look to get coverage in this area. It was a relatively quiet day in the corn market not much to talk about so I will leave it at that. I am looking for an early low again tomorrow and a late high in the July '09 contract. We closed above $3.82 1/2 and if we do it again tomorrow then the market should begin to seek out the $3.95 area.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early low and a late high tomorrow. Now that I have all my feed needs covered via $3.80 June ‘09 call options to the upside I will look for opportunities to manage any potential equity we acquire and look for a place to exit our short $3.40 July ‘09 puts on a rally.

July ‘09 Corn - Support/Resistance for 04-29-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $4.01
(R2) Resistance 2: $3.95
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.85 1/2
Today’s close: $3.83 1/2
(S1) Support 1: $3.82 1/2
(S2) Support 2: $3.78
(S3) Support 3: $3.76 1/4
__________________________________________________ _______________________

MEAL - July ‘09 Electronic
Open - $306.40, High - $311.20, Low - $303.00, Close - $304.00 Down $2.30
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Yesterday I said: “Like corn meal was a victim to the panic selling related to the Swine Flu. As mentioned above I wasn’t friendly meal at the end of last week at all and I expect a possible test of $296.60 in the July ‘09 contract. Just to make note I have switched my focus from May ‘09 meal to July ‘09 meal due to the contract expiration in the May contract. I am looking for some more early selling in soybeans and then I think we can put a fork in for the day as I believe we will have traded enough contracts to get through all of the emotion that has come with the Swine Flu. I have a cycle low on in July ‘09 meal around May 18th so I am in no hurry to buy meal although I did let May ‘09 $320.00 call options turn into long futures Friday and I still have the position for now. It is on around 55% of my needs but I will monitor this position closely.”

July ‘09 meal: I said not in a hurry to buy meal but we didn't get an early low and a late high like I thought we would today. I am staying with that thought for tomorrow because the hourly chart was searching for a short-term bottom today which I think will show up in early trade tonight. I am still looking for a test of $296.60 in the July '09 contract at some point and we may have a chance to get it in the near future as the rumor today was the Chinese were going to cancel some soybean orders. I look for buying to surface after early selling in tomorrow's session.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early low tonight and a late high tomorrow.

May ‘09 Meal - Support/Resistance for 04-29-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $311.20
(R2) Resistance 2: $308.10
(R1) Resistance 1: $307.10
Today’s close: $304.00
(S1) Support 1: $303.00
(S2) Support 2: $300.60
(S3) Support 3: $298.10

__________________________________________________ _______________________

HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX
Open - $68.15, High - $68.60, Low - $65.65, Close - $66.30 Down $2.35
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Friendly
Yesterday I said: “Synthetically the June ‘09 hog futures were trading $3.65 lower on the day when factoring in options. The limit for the day is only $3.00/cwt in the futures but option could still trade and when you factor in what they did it suggests the June was actually down $3.65/cwt instead of $3.00 like the futures showed. This is actually a good sign for tomorrow as far as I’m concerned. The opening today (from a weekly perspective) was bullish based on what I look at on the charts. If the June ‘09 contract can manage to reverse and move higher we could be setting a bottom. Now, I didn’t say go buy the market but I would look to trail hedges with a buy stop at $69.20 or purchase a call option against hedges to protect equity if you have any.

I have talked about events before and this is one too only on a larger scale. With events comes emotion but when you put all of the information down on paper this is just a temporary setback in the futures because Swine Flu IS NOT spread by eating pork. I am impressed with the Government as they have tried to make it very clear that you cannot get sick from eating properly handled and well cooked pork. I am looking for tomorrow to have a some more follow through selling and if we gap open lower and then turn around and trade higher on the day there will be a buy signal at $68.90 stop with a risk management sell stop $.25 below the current low at the time you get your fill.

The one wild card here is the media, they can report however they like and I would imagine there will be a fair amount of fear/panic based headlines which may extend the selling in hogs. I for one don’t believe the selling will last much longer in the hog pit; there really is no reason to at this point. I will be restructuring my hedges tomorrow to be in a more bullish position while still having coverage in place to the downside. I want to protect the equity that was gained today as best we can.”

June ‘09 hogs: Well June '09 hogs got hit again today, the only good thing is that we rallied into the close. There seemed to a decent number of buy orders coming into the market via the Globex. I said there was a buy signal for today at $68.90 on a stop today but we didn't get there which turned out to be a good thing. I did move my positions around to provide more upside potential should we get a rally off of these new lows, I rolled down some call options that were out of the money down to $68.00 and $69.00 in the June. I was wrong on the early low and late high today but I think we should see this action tomorrow.

The cutout was down $1.44 today but it was up $.45 yesterday so with all things considered it isn't that big of a decline in my book but on the same token I trying to be objective when looking at this situation and use logic when thinking instead of emotion and fear. The market and media does a great job of instilling the latter into us and it feeds on itself. When I look at the market I try to think about what I know about it. 1.) Swine Flu is providing plenty of negative press, 2.) packers will not do anyone any favors and why should they, it is business for them just as it is for the producer but it stinks they have as much control as they do. 3.) We CAN NOT get swine flu from consumption of pork so there is no fundamental reason at this time (other than import bans from other countries from the select states that have swine flu in the U.S.). 4.) I have a cycle low the end of this week week, 5.) we left a HUGE gap at $71.25 in the June '09 contract's weekly chart and gaps tend to get filled.

After looking at all of this information I ask myself if I want to try and trade the market six times in a day to scalp some small gains for position myself for something bigger down the road. In my experience I have usually been happier with the positioning approach vs. the trading approach especially when it comes to events. The big thing is trust your research and have a contingency plan in place if you are wrong but you need to deal with the emotion and keep it under control as much as possible. If you will read the comments I wrote on Saturday the 25th, (click on the 25th on the archive calendar to the right of the screen) you will see what my thoughts were then and I wrote that in an un-emotional state.

The market will indeed prove me right or wrong from a market direction perspective but the bottom line is managing your positions and your equity and that is what I look to do. My CONDITIONAL buy order for tomorrow is IF we open below $65.65 in the June '09 contract then I would have a buy stop at $65.90 with a risk management sell stop about $.25 below the current low at the time of your fill.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to be lower tonight/tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high. There were good buy orders coming into the market later this afternoon and I expected an early violent sell off and then recovery the balance of the day which we didn't get so I now look for that tomorrow. I was wrong on today's action but I believe it will happen tomorrow.

June ‘09 Hogs - Support/Resistance for 04-29-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $68.32
(R2) Resistance 2: $67.30
(R1) Resistance 1: $66.675
Today’s close: $66.30
(S1) Support 1: $65.65
(S2) Support 2: New Contract Lows
(S3) Support 3: $

Click here to view cash and cutout reports

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance. ]]> Jeremy Knutson http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=247 http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=247 http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TraderslogcomCommunity-Blogs/~3/_niaojrV9BU/blog.php Thu, 23 Apr 2009 21:37:54 GMT If you have questions, comments or suggestions, contact me at 1-877-212-2564 or email me at jknutson@hurleyandassociates.com. To read what I was thinking at the highs and lows of the market go to www.leanhog.net (http://www.leanhog.net) to view my archived posts. *CORN - May ‘09 Electronic... If you have questions, comments or suggestions, contact me at 1-877-212-2564 or email me at jknutson@hurleyandassociates.com. To read what I was thinking at the highs and lows of the market go to www.leanhog.net to view my archived posts.

CORN - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $3.73 1/2, High - $3.81 3/4, Low - $3.69 1/2, Close - $3.81 Up $.07 1/2.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Yesterday I said: “$3.76 seems to be the golden number that May ‘09 corn can’t seem to get through and close above. May is range bound between the 50% and 62% retracement level back to the early March ‘09 low. As I have said in some of my more recent posts I have a cycle low due near the 29th of April and I will hold a skeptical attitude toward corn until then and review then. I am still looking to buy corn at $3.67 1/2 if I can.”

May ‘09 corn: We managed to get our close above $3.76 today but I don't think there is much left in the tank for corn to keep rallying. I need to see tomorrow close above $3.76 as well to make sure today wasn't a fluke which I believe it was. There wasn't much volume today; if this bounce is based on planting fears then I believe you sell into this rally. I am still friendly longer-term but I believe we should make another run at $3.65-$3.67 before we move higher. I think a good day trade would have been selling the close today or anything above $3.82 tonight and have a buy stop at $3.88; this thought is an observation only, not a recommendation.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early high and a late low tomorrow. As I said I will continue to try and buy May ‘09 corn around $3.67 1/2.

May ‘09 Corn - Support/Resistance for 04-24-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $3.91 3/4
(R2) Resistance 2: $3.87
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.83 1/4
Today’s close: $3.81
(S1) Support 1: $3.78 3/4
(S2) Support 2: $3.75 1/2
(S3) Support 3: $3.74
__________________________________________________ _______________________

MEAL - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $328.80, High - $340.00, Low - $324.40, Close - $324.90 Down $4.90
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Yesterday I said: “I am surprised May ‘09 meal did what it did today; we sold off as the day was progressing but it came back strong into the close. The overnight market set off an INTRA-DAY sell signal on the hourly chart (very short-term) at $328.20 with a protective buy stop at $330.50. The important number to keep in mind right now is $326.00 as the market settled above it today and if it does again tomorrow then I would say a test of the most recent high of $333.90 is likely.”

May ‘09 meal: I see the high on May '09 meal show's $340.00 but I didn't see it touch there during the day and if I look at a one minute chart it says it did it in the first minute of trade. The R3 number from yesterday was $341.00 so it is possible $340.00 was our high today, I just didn't see it. If $340.00 was our high and not a bad tick ($340 is the high on CME.com) then I am not friendly soybean meal at all. This would have been an awful close for the day. I expect selling on stop orders below today's low of $324.40.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early high tonight and a late low tomorrow.

May ‘09 Meal - Support/Resistance for 04-24-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $334.60
(R2) Resistance 2: $329.10
(R1) Resistance 1: $326.50
Today’s close: $324.90
(S1) Support 1: $324.10
(S2) Support 2: $321.50
(S3) Support 3: $318.10

__________________________________________________ _______________________

HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX
Open - $71.75, High - $72.15, Low - $71.25, Close - $71.875 Down $.50
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Friendly
Yesterday I said: “I am still looking for that close below $72.175 which looks like it should come tomorrow and then I would be looking for a test of $70.525. My short-term target on June ‘09 hogs is $70.525 on gut feel but technically we need a couple of closes below $72.175. I still have my cycle indicator saying we should stay weak into May 4th so I will remain hedged for now with my upside open until $80.00 if we should get that high. Once we get closer to May 4th or reach some downside objectives ($69.525 in June ‘09) I may adjust my positions to become more of a bullish position meaning open the upside completely."

June ‘09 hogs: June '09 futures found support at my S2 number from yesterday of $71.35 but just couldn't muster enough momentum to reach my targeted area of $70.525. I still believe we will test $70.525 at some point in the next week or so and if we do I will be looking to adjust my position to allow for more upside potential if the market decides to move higher. For now I will remain hedged but the market is seeing buyers come into the market on these breaks. We need to get back above $72.175 tomorrow if we want to try and rule out a test of $70.525.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to be higher tonight/tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high but I’m staying hedged for now. There could be some buy stops around $72.15 for tomorrow's trade session.

June ‘09 Hogs - Support/Resistance for 04-24-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $73.20
(R2) Resistance 2: $72.90
(R1) Resistance 1: $72.175
Today’s close: $71.875
(S1) Support 1: $71.70
(S2) Support 2: $71.25
(S3) Support 3: $70.525

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance. ]]> Jeremy Knutson http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=246 http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=246 http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TraderslogcomCommunity-Blogs/~3/WdKpAkyrvpQ/blog.php Thu, 23 Apr 2009 00:13:07 GMT ***PLEASE NOTE WE HAVE JUST OVERHAULED OUR WEBSITE WWW.LEANHOG.NET (http://www.leanhog.net) AS OF TODAY APRIL 22ND 2009. WE WE BELIEVE IT IS A ONE STOP SHOP FOR THE LEAN HOG PRODUCER SO PLEASE CHECK IT OUT AND LET US KNOW WHAT YOU THINK!*** If you have questions, comments or suggestions,... ***PLEASE NOTE WE HAVE JUST OVERHAULED OUR WEBSITE WWW.LEANHOG.NET AS OF TODAY APRIL 22ND 2009. WE WE BELIEVE IT IS A ONE STOP SHOP FOR THE LEAN HOG PRODUCER SO PLEASE CHECK IT OUT AND LET US KNOW WHAT YOU THINK!***

If you have questions, comments or suggestions, contact me at 1-877-212-2564 or email me at jknutson@hurleyandassociates.com. To read what I was thinking at the highs and lows of the market go to www.leanhog.net to view my archived posts.

CORN - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $3.74 1/2, High - $3.78 1/4, Low - $3.70, Close - $3.73 1/2 Down $.00 1/2.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Yesterday I said: “As mentioned I am not bearish at these levels give the decline we've had. Today was actually a pretty quiet day as it relates to volume so I'm not buying into this rally attempt. As of right now I am keeping my options open to purchase corn at a lower level with a preference of $3.67 1/2 if I can. I will be looking for this number tomorrow as I think the market has potential get near it tomorrow.”

May ‘09 corn: $3.76 seems to be the golden number that May '09 corn can't seem to get through and close above. May is range bound between the 50% and 62% retracement level back to the early March '09 low. As I have said in some of my more recent posts I have a cycle low due near the 29th of April and I will hold a skeptical attitude toward corn until then and review then. I am still looking to buy corn at $3.67 1/2 if I can.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early low and a late high tomorrow. As I said I will continue to try and buy May '09 corn around $3.67 1/2.

May '09 Corn - Support/Resistance for 04-23-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $3.83 1/4
(R2) Resistance 2: $3.78
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.76
Today's close: $3.73 1/2
(S1) Support 1: $3.72
(S2) Support 2: $3.70
(S3) Support 3: $3.68 1/2
__________________________________________________ _______________________

MEAL - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $325.50, High - $329.80, Low - $324.30, Close - $329.80 Up $4.50
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Yesterday I said: "I said it yesterday and I will say it again today; I am not willing to chase the meal market at these levels. I have confidence in saying this because I have call spreads in lace to allow me to be wrong directionally but still keep business under control. May '09 meal still needs to get back above $326.00 on a daily close before I think we can test our old high of $333.90 so that said, I will maintain my negative bias toward the meal market.”

May ‘09 meal: I am surprised May '09 meal did what it did today; we sold off as the day was progressing but it came back strong into the close. The overnight market set off an INTRA-DAY sell signal on the hourly chart (very short-term) at $328.20 with a protective buy stop at $330.50. The important number to keep in mind right now is $326.00 as the market settled above it today and if it does again tomorrow then I would say a test of the most recent high of $333.90 is likely.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early low and a late high tonight/tomorrow.

May '09 Meal - Support/Resistance for 04-23-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $341.00
(R2) Resistance 2: $333.90
(R1) Resistance 1: $331.00
Today's close: $329.80
(S1) Support 1: $327.90
(S2) Support 2: $326.00
(S3) Support 3: $324.10

__________________________________________________ _______________________

HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX
Open - $72.75, High - $72.80, Low - $71.325, Close - $72.375 Down $.025
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Friendly
Yesterday I said: “June really didn't do much today as we traded within yesterday's range and
failed to show anything of significance to change my mind on the market which is lower. I need to see the June '09 contract close above $72.75 for a couple days before I will say we could test $73.85 again. I am still of the opinion the market has more downside for the time being. "

June ‘09 hogs: I am still looking for that close below $72.175 which looks like it should come tomorrow and then I would be looking for a test of $70.525. My short-term target on June '09 hogs is $70.525 on gut feel but technically we need a couple of closes below $72.175. I still have my cycle indicator saying we should stay weak into May 4th so I will remain hedged for now with my upside open until $80.00 if we should get that high. Once we get closer to May 4th or reach some downside objectives ($69.525 in June '09) I may adjust my positions to become more of a bullish position meaning open the upside completely.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to be lower tonight/tomorrow and experience an
early low and a late high and I'm staying hedged for now. If we close below $72.175 tomorrow and Thursday then I am looking for a test of $70.52.

June '09 Hogs - Support/Resistance for 04-23-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $73.95
(R2) Resistance 2: $73.20
(R1) Resistance 1: $72.90
Today's close: $72.375
(S1) Support 1: $71.95
(S2) Support 2: $71.35
(S3) Support 3: $70.525


Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully
consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past
performance. ]]> Jeremy Knutson http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=245 http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=245 http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TraderslogcomCommunity-Blogs/~3/xq9gWYCyIxM/blog.php Tue, 21 Apr 2009 23:52:12 GMT If you have questions, comments or suggestions, contact me at 1-877-212-2564 or email me at jknutson@hurleyandassociates.com. To read what I was thinking at the highs and lows of the market go to www.leanhog.net (http://www.leanhog.net) to view my archived posts. *CORN - May ‘09 Electronic... If you have questions, comments or suggestions, contact me at 1-877-212-2564 or email me at jknutson@hurleyandassociates.com. To read what I was thinking at the highs and lows of the market go to www.leanhog.net to view my archived posts.

CORN - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $3.70, High - $3.79, Low - $3.68 1/2, Close - $3.74 Up $.04 1/2.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Thursday I said: “My thoughts on corn getting stronger as the day progressed on Friday was obviously wrong and therefore I did not place my order to buy at $3.76 3/4 like I said I was going to. This is why I don't recommend doing as I write because I have the luxury of changing my mind before you read about it. If you have questions about something either email or call me! I had an order in today at $3.47 which is near down limit as a just in case order not expecting it to get there and it didn't. I also had an order during the last hour of trade to buy at $3.65 against my long $3.80 May '09 puts. This is an effort to manage the equity that I have in the $3.80 puts as well as give me a synthetic call option through Friday.

As I mentioned before I have a cycle taking us lower this week however there is one thing I want to pay attention to and that is the open we had for May '09 corn on Sunday night. We opened at $3.74 3/4 when the weekly low was $3.76, this is a POTENTIALLY friendly opening. We have also backed off $.47 from the high of April 2nd to today's low so I am not that bearish at these levels.”

May ‘09 corn: As mentioned I am not bearish at these levels give the decline we've had. Today was actually a pretty quiet day as it relates to volume so I'm not buying into this rally attempt. As of right now I am keeping my options open to purchase corn at a lower level with a preference of $3.67 1/2 if I can. I will be looking for this number tomorrow as I think the market has potential get near it tomorrow.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early high and a late low tomorrow. I will continue to try and buy around $3.67 1/2.

May '09 Corn - Support/Resistance for 04-22-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $3.81 1/4
(R2) Resistance 2: $3.79
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.76 3/4
Today's close: $3.74
(S1) Support 1: $3.73 3/4
(S2) Support 2: $3.70 1/2
(S3) Support 3: $3.67 1/2
__________________________________________________ _______________________

MEAL - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $319.20, High - $325.50, Low - $317.90, Close - $325.30 Up $6.10
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Thursday I said: "I continue to think the meal market has room for decline but tomorrow looks like an early low and late high type day. The May '09 meal contract is looking to confirm Friday's high of $333.90 as its high for the planting season. It wouldn't be surprising to see May '09 meal trade back near $305.80 which would be 50% of the most recent move. I will not chase the meal market at these levels but I still have a call spread in place to give me protection if the market moves higher on about 60% of my needs. I'm looking for a pull back toward $305.80 in the May '09 contract.”

May ‘09 meal: I said it yesterday and I will say it again today; I am not willing to chase the meal market at these levels. I have confidence in saying this because I have call spreads in place to allow me to be wrong directionally but still keep business under control. May '09 meal still needs to get back above $326.00 on a daily close before I think we can test our old high of $333.90 so that said, I will maintain my negative bias toward the meal market.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to have follow through to the upside early tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low.

May '09 Meal - Support/Resistance for 04-22-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $329.40
(R2) Resistance 2: $327.90
(R1) Resistance 1: $325.50

Today's close: $325.30
(S1) Support 1: $323.70
(S2) Support 2: $322.10
(S3) Support 3: $320.90

__________________________________________________ _______________________

HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX
Open - $72.40, High - $72.75, Low - $72.20, Close - $72.40 Up $.10
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Friendly
Thursday I said: “After looking at today's June '09 contract close I see that today was the lowest close we've had since April 2nd, 2009. Looking at the cycle still showing lower into ultimately next week and the intra-day chart showing a small retracement of today's larger down move early in the day; I don't have a ton of good to say about the market. I am sure with producers in the fields doing work we could see the cash market stay firmer as we move forward but the charts don't show me anything to get excited about. I will continue to stay short with my call strategy in place to give me upside potential if I am wrong. Based on my cycle indicator I see weakness into May 4th."

June ‘09 hogs: June really didn't do much today as we traded within yesterday's range and failed to show anything of significance to change my mind on the market which is lower. I need to see the June '09 contract close above $72.75 for a couple days before I will say we could test $73.85 again. I am still of the opinion the market has more downside for the time being.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to be higher tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low and I'm staying hedged for now. If we close below $72.175 tomorrow and Thursday then I am looking for a test of $70.52.

June '09 Hogs - Support/Resistance for 04-22-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $73.75
(R2) Resistance 2: $73.00
(R1) Resistance 1: $72.75
Today's close: $72.40
(S1) Support 1: $72.20
(S2) Support 2: $71.675
(S3) Support 3: $71.22



Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance. ]]> Jeremy Knutson http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=244 http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=244 http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TraderslogcomCommunity-Blogs/~3/RyyKwSSAU94/blog.php Mon, 20 Apr 2009 20:59:35 GMT If you have questions, comments or suggestions, contact me at 1-877-212-2564 or email me at jknutson@hurleyandassociates.com. To read what I was thinking at the highs and lows of the market go to www.leanhog.net (http://www.leanhog.net) to view my archived posts. *CORN - May ‘09 Electronic... If you have questions, comments or suggestions, contact me at 1-877-212-2564 or email me at jknutson@hurleyandassociates.com. To read what I was thinking at the highs and lows of the market go to www.leanhog.net to view my archived posts.

CORN - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $3.74 3/4, High - $3.84, Low - $3.60 1/2, Close - $3.69 1/2 Down $.06 3/4.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Thursday I said: “The May '09 corn contract is indeed looking for a bottom for the week but it doesn't seem to want to stop moving lower. I had an order in to buy May '09 corn at $3.76 3/4 to re-own what I exited at $4.03 but I didn't get my fill. I still have a bull call spread in place in case I am wrong. I think we will have an early low tomorrow and a late high because of the downward movement we've had this week and Friday profit taking and position squaring going into the weekend. I still have a cycle projection for corn to be soft (lower) into the week of next week.”

May ‘09 corn: My thoughts on corn getting stronger as the day progressed on Friday was obviously wrong and therefore I did not place my order to buy at $3.76 3/4 like I said I was going to. This is why I don't recommend doing as I write because I have the luxury of changing my mind before you read about it. If you have questions about something either email or call me! I had an order in today at $3.47 which is near down limit as a just in case order not expecting it to get there and it didn't. I also had an order during the last hour of trade to buy at $3.65 against my long $3.80 May '09 puts. This is an effort to manage the equity that I have in the $3.80 puts as well as give me a synthetic call option through Friday.

As I mentioned before I have a cycle taking us lower this week however there is one thing I want to pay attention to and that is the open we had for May '09 corn on Sunday night. We opened at $3.74 3/4 when the weekly low was $3.76, this is a POTENTIALLY friendly opening. We have also backed off $.47 from the high of April 2nd to today's low so I am not that bearish at these levels.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early low and a late high because of my comments about high to low movement in the paragraph above. I will continue to try and buy around $3.65 or HIGHER if it looks like things may turn up.
May '09 Corn - Support/Resistance for 04-21-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $3.76 3/4
(R2) Resistance 2: $3.73 3/4
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.71 1/4
Today's close: $3.69 1/2
(S1) Support 1: $3.65 3/4
(S2) Support 2: $3.64 1/2
(S3) Support 3: $3.60 1/2

__________________________________________________ _______________________

MEAL - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $326.00, High - $331.00, Low - $318.50, Close - $319.20 Down $7.40
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Thursday I said: "Reading my thoughts from yesterday proves the market has a mind of its own and will do what it pleases as it screamed through my resistance levels. The sell stops below $314.50 were never tripped today because the market never got that low. There is another potential sell signal setup tonight if the market opens above $329.40 and trades below this level it will trigger a sell on the candle stick charts. I am keeping my call spreads in place for now to maintain ownership if the market continues to move higher and will look to get more aggressive positions in place on a price decline.”

May ‘09 meal: I continue to think the meal market has room for decline but tomorrow looks like an early low and late high type day. The May '09 meal contract is looking to confirm Friday's high of $333.90 as its high for the planting season. It wouldn't be surprising to see May '09 meal trade back near $305.80 which would be 50% of the most recent move. I will not chase the meal market at these levels but I still have a call spread in place to give me protection if the market moves higher on about 60% of my needs. I'm looking for a pull back toward $305.80 in the May '09 contract.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to have follow through to the downside early tonight/tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high.

May '09 Meal - Support/Resistance for 04-21-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $328.00
(R2) Resistance 2: $326.20
(R1) Resistance 1: $322.30
Today's close: $319.20
(S1) Support 1: $318.50
(S2) Support 2: $315.90
(S3) Support 3: $312.40

__________________________________________________ _______________________

HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX
Open - $73.20, High - $73.20, Low - $71.675, Close - $72.40 Down $1.325
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Friendly
Thursday I said: “The early high and late low happened again today and tomorrow is showing signs of similar activity. Today's trade action on the daily chart was nothing to brag about as we closed near where we opened. The cash market was lower at noon which gave an excuse for the futures to move lower the balance of the day. As stated in the above paragraph I am sticking to a cautious short-term outlook in the hogs as we move into the last half of April with the seasonal tendency to move lower in years where we closed above $70.00 on April 15th in the June contract."

June ‘09 hogs: After looking at today's June '09 contract close I see that today was the lowest close we've had since April 2nd, 2009. Looking at the cycle still showing lower into ultimately next week and the intra-day chart showing a small retracement of today's larger down move early in the day; I don't have a ton of good to say about the market. I am sure with producers in the fields doing work we could see the cash market stay firmer as we move forward but the charts don't show me anything to get excited about. I will continue to stay short with my call strategy in place to give me upside potential if I am wrong. Based on my cycle indicator I see weakness into May 4th.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to be lower tonight/tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high and I'm staying hedged for now. If we close below $72.175 tomorrow and Wednesday then I am looking for a test of $70.525.

June '09 Hogs - Support/Resistance for 04-21-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $73.20
(R2) Resistance 2: $72.95
(R1) Resistance 1: $72.725
Today's close: $72.30
(S1) Support 1: $71.95
(S2) Support 2: $71.675
(S3) Support 3: $72.00

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance. ]]> Jeremy Knutson http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=242 http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=242 http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TraderslogcomCommunity-Blogs/~3/9jMxkW3CnJs/blog.php Thu, 16 Apr 2009 20:24:56 GMT If you have questions, comments or suggestions, contact me at 1-877-212-2564 or email me at jknutson@hurleyandassociates.com. To read what I was thinking at the highs and lows of the market go to www.leanhog.net (http://www.leanhog.net) to view my archived posts. *CORN - May ‘09 Electronic... If you have questions, comments or suggestions, contact me at 1-877-212-2564 or email me at jknutson@hurleyandassociates.com. To read what I was thinking at the highs and lows of the market go to www.leanhog.net to view my archived posts.

CORN - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $3.85 1/4, High - $3.89 1/2, Low - $3.80 3/4, Close - $3.85 3/4 Up $.01 1/4.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Yesterday I said: “Early resistance was a common theme in corn today the session high was indeed made early in the day. Today's trade in the May '09 contract was ugly to put it lightly and we closed below yesterday's low which isn't encouraging. As I've said recently I am looking for an opportunity to purchase May '09 corn around $3.76 1/2 if I can. $3.76 3/4 is our next downside target assuming we can break Monday's low of $3.83. I will gain ownership at $3.76 1/2 if possible against the $2.80 put options we own. I think this down turn in the market is a correction of what will be a longer-term higher move in the market based off of inflation fears. I am looking for the market to have follow through to the downside tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high”

May ‘09 corn: The May '09 corn contract is indeed looking for a bottom for the week but it doesn't seem to want to stop moving lower. I had an order in to buy May '09 corn at $3.76 3/4 to re-own what I exited at $4.03 but I didn't get my fill. I still have a bull call spread in place in case I am wrong. I think we will have an early low tomorrow and a late high because of the downward movement we've had this week and Friday profit taking and position squaring going into the weekend. I still have a cycle projection for corn to be soft (lower) into the week of next week.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early low and a late high because of the aforementioned profit-taking going into the weekend. I will continue to try and buy around $3.76 3/4.
May '09 Corn - Support/Resistance for 04-17-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $3.94 3/4
(R2) Resistance 2: $3.89 3/4
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.87 3/4
Today's close: $3.85 3/4
(S1) Support 1: $3.85
(S2) Support 2: $3.80 3/4
(S3) Support 3: $3.76 3/4

__________________________________________________ _______________________

MEAL - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $317.10, High - $329.40, Low - $316.80, Close - $329.40 Up $12.10
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Yesterday I said: "I’m looking for the market to have follow through to the downside tonight/tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high. I still feel the market is near a top and today could very well be this week's high. I will wait to re-enter an aggressive position in the market until we get back near $300.00 if we get there. Technically speaking there could be more sell stops below $314.50 tomorrow.”

May ‘09 meal: Reading my thoughts from yesterday proves the market has a mind of its own and will do what it pleases as it screamed through my resistance levels. The sell stops below $314.50 were never tripped today because the market never got that low. There is another potential sell signal setup tonight if the market opens above $329.40 and trades below this level it will trigger a sell on the candle stick charts. I am keeping my call spreads in place for now to maintain ownership if the market continues to move higher and will look to get more aggressive positions in place on a price decline.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to have follow through to the upside early tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low. I see a potential sell signal ONLY if we open at $329.50 or higher in tonight's trade. If the market opens slightly lower, then it is primed for a follow through move higher tomorrow. Stay objective in this market and don't chase it if you don't have coverage in place; if you need to protect meal use a call option for now and buy on a dip.

May '09 Meal - Support/Resistance for 04-17-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $348.70
(R2) Resistance 2: $340.10
(R1) Resistance 1: $332.80
Today's close: $329.40
(S1) Support 1: $324.00
(S2) Support 2: $321.10
(S3) Support 3: $318.60
__________________________________________________ _______________________

HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX
Open - $73.40, High - $74.10, Low - $73.175, Close - $73.275 Up $.225
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Friendly
Yesterday I said: “I’m looking for the market to be higher tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low. I expect the June ‘09 hog contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength because of higher cash and cutout but falter as the day progresses. Seasonally we tend to move lower from today's close until the April 30th close and I will stick with the 80% odds of that seasonality along with the other signals that show up to support that type of move."

June ‘09 hogs: The early high and late low happened again today and tomorrow is showing signs of similar activity. Today's trade action on the daily chart was nothing to brag about as we closed near where we opened. The cash market was lower at noon which gave an excuse for the futures to move lower the balance of the day. As stated in the above paragraph I am sticking to a cautious short-term outlook in the hogs as we move into the last half of April with the seasonal tendency to move lower in years where we closed above $70.00 on April 15th in the June contract.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to be higher tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low. Once again the cutout was up by $.65 today and should provide some support for tomorrow's market; however, nothing is a "secret" anymore so I expect that some of today's positive cutout news has already been traded. I am sticking to my thoughts of early high and late low for tomorrows June '09 hog trade.

June '09 Hogs - Support/Resistance for 04-17-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $74.85
(R2) Resistance 2: $74.10
(R1) Resistance 1: $73.75
Today's close: $73.275
(S1) Support 1: $73.05
(S2) Support 2: $72.80
(S3) Support 3: $72.00



Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance. ]]> Jeremy Knutson http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=241 http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=241 http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TraderslogcomCommunity-Blogs/~3/PgQks3xBHxI/blog.php Wed, 15 Apr 2009 21:30:57 GMT If you have questions, comments or suggestions, contact me at 1-877-212-2564 or email me at jknutson@hurleyandassociates.com (jknutson@hurleyandassociates.com). To read what I was thinking at the highs and lows of the market go to www.leanhog.net (http://www.leanhog.net) to view my archived... If you have questions, comments or suggestions, contact me at 1-877-212-2564 or email me at jknutson@hurleyandassociates.com. To read what I was thinking at the highs and lows of the market go to www.leanhog.net to view my archived posts.

CORN - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $3.94, High - $3.94 3/4, Low - $3.84, Close - $3.84 1/2 Down $.09 3/4.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher

Yesterday I said: “ I am looking for the market to have follow through to the upside tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low. I look for support to be $3.93 1/4, $3.92 and $3.87 3/4. Resistance should show up at $3.95 1/4, $3.98 1/4 and $4.04. I expect the May ‘09 corn contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength and then meet resistance early.”

May ‘09 corn: Early resistance was a common theme in corn today the session high was indeed made early in the day. Today's trade in the May '09 contract was ugly to put it lightly and we closed below yesterday's low which isn't encouraging. As I've said recently I am looking for an opportunity to purchase May '09 corn around $3.76 1/2 if I can. $3.76 3/4 is our next downside target assuming we can break Monday's low of $3.83. I will gain ownership at $3.76 1/2 if possible against the $2.80 put options we own. I think this down turn in the market is a correction of what will be a longer-term higher move in the market based off of inflation fears.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to have follow through to the downside tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high. I don't look for a test of R3 tomorrow but I think the market will be looking for this week's bottom tomorrow.

May '09 Corn - Support/Resistance for 04-16-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $3.92 3/4
(R2) Resistance 2: $3.91
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.88 1/4
Today's close: $3.84 1/2
(S1) Support 1: $3.83
(S2) Support 2: $3.79
(S3) Support 3: $3.76 3/4

__________________________________________________ _______________________


MEAL - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $315.80, High - $321.80, Low - $314.50, Close - $317.30 Up $1.00
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher

Yesterday I said: “I’m looking for the market to have follow through to the upside tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low. I look for support to be $314.50, $313.50 and $312.10. Resistance should show up at $316.90, $319.00 and $325.20. I expect the May ‘09 meal contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength and then meet resistance early. **IF get above $319.00 either tonight/tomorrow or Thursday and move back below this level then I have a sell signal at $318.50 on the daily chart. If filled based on the sell signal then the protective buy stop order to manage risk would be $.50 above the current session high.** This is an observation only and it provides confidence in what the charts have already been saying at these levels, be careful if your long. As always please do what is right for your operation, take this information as insight not recommendation.”

May ‘09 meal: The early high and late low pattern worked on May '09 meal today but I think we may have some additional downside tomorrow. The signal that I talked about in the paragraph above was executed today and I did take the trade however I exited the straight futures portion of our position at $318.10 instead of the $318.50 stop like I said yesterday. I still have the call spreads in place to the upside in the event I am wrong because we still need protection. I will look for an opportunity to purchase these futures at a lower price if we can.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to have follow through to the downside tonight/tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high. I still feel the market is near a top and today could very well be this week's high. I will wait to re-enter an aggressive position in the market until we get back near $300.00 if we get there. Technically speaking there could be more sell stops below $314.50 tomorrow.

May '09 Meal - Support/Resistance for 04-16-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $321.80
(R2) Resistance 2: $319.30
(R1) Resistance 1: $318.60
Today's close: $317.30
(S1) Support 1: $315.50
(S2) Support 2: $313.10
(S3) Support 3: $310.90
__________________________________________________ _______________________


HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX
Open - $72.75, High - $73.475, Low - $72.00, Close - $73.05 Up $.45
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Friendly

Yesterday I said: “I’m looking for the market to be higher tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low. I look for support to be $72.60, $71.95 and $71.05. Resistance should show up at $73.35, $73.55 and $74.25. I expect the June ‘09 hog contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength because of higher cash and cutout but falter as the day progresses. I am looking for a test of $70.52 within the next week if we close below $72.70 tomorrow in the June ‘09 contract."

June ‘09 hogs: I haven't altered my thoughts on the June '09 hog contract for now as I believe it has some room to move to the downside in the next week or so. Cash and cutout were both higher this afternoon so it should give the market a small boost tomorrow. Today we retraced around 62% of yesterday's move which is typical but the low of today also completed a 62% retracement back to our low of $70.52 from March 30th. The market is trending lower but I still need to see a close below $72.70 if we are going to test $70.52 and we didn't get it today.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to be higher tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low. I expect the June ‘09 hog contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength because of higher cash and cutout but falter as the day progresses. Seasonally we tend to move lower from today's close until the April 30th close and I will stick with the 80% odds of that seasonality along with the other signals that show up to support that type of move.

June '09 Hogs - Support/Resistance for 04-16-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $74.25
(R2) Resistance 2: $73.75
(R1) Resistance 1: $73.475
Today's close: $73.05
(S1) Support 1: $72.55
(S2) Support 2: $72.15
(S3) Support 3: $70.525


__________________________________________________ _______________________

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance. ]]> Jeremy Knutson http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=239 http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=239 http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TraderslogcomCommunity-Blogs/~3/cXfi8Bh4xnA/blog.php Tue, 14 Apr 2009 22:07:18 GMT Hog Comments - 04-14-09 - I knew pigs couldn't fly.
If you have questions, comments or suggestions, contact me at 1-877-212-2564 or email me at jknutson@hurleyandassociates.com. To read what I was thinking at the highs and lows of the market go to www.leanhog.net to view my archived posts.

CORN - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $3.87, High - $3.99, Low - $3.85 1/4, Close - $3.94 1/4 Up $.06 3/4.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher

Yesterday I said: "I am still bullish corn for reasons other than grain fundamentals, the U.S. Dollar Index was down 1.23 as I was writing this today and I am more concerned about the U.S. Dollar as a fundamental to corn than I am weather. Support for tomorrow’s market looks like $3.85 3/4, $3.83 and then down to $3.76 3/4. Resistance should be $3.89 1/2, $3.90 1/2 and then up to $3.94. I am expecting a sideways market tomorrow, there were signs of bottom picking today and would suggest buy stops above $3.90 1/2 for tomorrow but I am not convinced of it yet. I am still cautious in the short-term at this price level but I am willing to begin scaling in purchases around $3.76 1/2 which will replace my long call spreads I talked about before."

May '09 corn: I didn't get my sideways market like I thought I would today but we did hold support near my first number of $3.85 3/4 but I was off by $.05 on the upside for resistance. You will notice I said I was waiting for $3.76 1/2, which I still am but I do have a call spread in place in case I am wrong so we still have protection in place if the market moves higher. We didn't manage to close above the 50% retracement level of $3.95 1/4 so as of now this is still just a bounce, we need to close above $3.95 1/4 for a couple days before look to $4.07 as a target.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to have follow through to the upside tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low. I look for support to be $3.93 1/4, $3.92 and $3.87 3/4. Resistance should show up at $3.95 1/4, $3.98 1/4 and $4.04. I expect the May '09 corn contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength and then meet resistance early.



MEAL - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $312.80, High - $319.00, Low - $312.40, Close - $316.30 Up $3.20
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher

Yesterday I said: "I am looking for an early high and a late low tomorrow. Support for tomorrow looks like $311.40, $310.6 and finally $307.80. Resistance should be $315.00 and then $319.00 if the market gets enough steam to get there. Like I said earlier I am looking for an early high and a late low for tomorrow’s meal trade. We are nearing a cycle high in meal which would last until the middle of May ‘09; this is not a recommendation of any kind, just a stated observation."

May '09 meal: The early high did come in the first hour of trade today as well as the low in the last hour of trade but the low was still above my first support point and we nailed the resistance with my second number from yesterday. After making a high at $319.00 again today we have a small double top formation for the time being. I am still in the camp that meal looks toppy at this level and I don't want to be an aggressive owner of futures or cash at these levels. I have a majority of ownership via known risk call spreads which I intend to keep for the moment.

Bottom line: I'm looking for the market to have follow through to the upside tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low. I look for support to be $314.50, $313.50 and $312.10. Resistance should show up at $316.90, $319.00 and $325.20. I expect the May '09 meal contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength and then meet resistance early. **IF get above $319.00 either tonight/tomorrow or Thursday and move back below this level then I have a sell signal at $318.50 on the daily chart. If filled based on the sell signal then the protective buy stop order to manage risk would be $.50 above the current session high.** This is an observation only and it provides confidence in what the charts have already been saying at these levels, be careful if your long. As always please do what is right for your operation, take this information as insight not recommendation.


HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX
Open - $74.15, High - $74.25, Low - $72.45, Close - $72.60 Down $1.50
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Friendly

Yesterday I said: "I am looking for an early high and a late low tomorrow as we are approaching the 15th of April and the May and June ‘09 contracts have a sizable lead on the cash index. I expect support to be $73.97, $73.72 and $73.35. I am looking for resistance to be $74.40, $74.82 and then $75.90 but I don’t expect this level to be touched tomorrow. I am looking for a near-term top in hogs this week and the beginning of a small retracement of the recent move higher.

June '09 hogs: I didn't do very well in projecting accurate support and resistance for today's trade but the market action projections were spot on with an early high and a late low. I know I know rocket science right? : ) All kidding aside, I don't think the June '09 hog contract has much upside left for the next week or so. I believe this is the beginning of a retracement in what should be a longer-term move higher.

Bottom line: I'm looking for the market to be higher tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low. I look for support to be $72.60, $71.95 and $71.05. Resistance should show up at $73.35, $73.55 and $74.25. I expect the June '09 hog contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength because of higher cash and cutout but falter as the day progresses. I am looking for a test of $70.52 within the next week if we close below $72.70 tomorrow in the June '09 contract.



Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance. ]]> Jeremy Knutson http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=238 http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=238 http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TraderslogcomCommunity-Blogs/~3/VfFRLoLKDOA/blog.php Mon, 13 Apr 2009 21:46:35 GMT If you have questions, comments or suggestions, contact me at 1-877-212-2564 or email me at jknutson@hurleyandassociates.com. To read what I was thinking at the highs and lows of the market go to www.leanhog.net (http://www.leanhog.net) to view my archived posts. It has been a while since my... If you have questions, comments or suggestions, contact me at 1-877-212-2564 or email me at jknutson@hurleyandassociates.com. To read what I was thinking at the highs and lows of the market go to www.leanhog.net to view my archived posts.

It has been a while since my last post as my schedule has been crazy this past month, however, it looks like beginning this week I should have more of a normal schedule and get back to regular postings. I have been working on updating www.leanhog.net (which will now give you a "site under construction" page until I am finished) to provide you with more quality information that is accessible when you need it. I am excited about the new site and I hope you are too because I think you will enjoy it. I plan to have the updated site completed prior to the end of the month and maybe sooner rather than later as I have made good progress.

CORN - May '09 Electronic
Open - $3.90, High - $3.90 1/2, Low - $3.83, Close - $3.87 3/4 Down $.02 3/4.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher

May '09 corn opened the day session on a weaker note with Crude Oil down over $3.00 a barrel and the Dow Jones off by more than 100 points. We still haven't cleared any area to make me extremely concerned about the drawback we've had in corn as a matter of fact it has been somewhat anticipated. I am only long 25% of needs with $2.80 puts in place to cover me to the downside; I also have a call spread on to the upside to make sure we have the coverage we need if I am wrong. I exited all of my long futures positions around $4.03 1/2 and re-entered 25% of them at $4.02 because the market didn't break as soon as I thought it would. I also placed some cheap call spreads in place last Thursday to get through the weekend and/or until I re-establish my long positions against my $2.80 puts.

I had orders in today to buy another 50% of my needs at $3.76 1/2 in the May '09 contract but we didn't get that low. We are now in the time-frame in which the corn market will be controlled to some degree by weather and planting progress. As of right now I am looking for a test of $3.76 in the May '09 contract and possibly a test of $3.68 1/2 if the weather stay's nice. Forecast's change and as of right now my cycle indicator says there isn't much to look forward to in the next couple of weeks in corn.

Bottom line - I am still bullish corn for reasons other than grain fundamentals, the U.S. Dollar Index was down 1.23 as I was writing this today and I am more concerned about the U.S. Dollar as a fundamental to corn than I am weather. Support for tomorrow's market looks like $3.85 3/4, $3.83 and then down to $3.76 3/4. Resistance should be $3.89 1/2, $3.90 1/2 and then up to $3.94. I am expecting a sideways market tomorrow, there were signs of bottom picking today and would suggest buy stops above $3.90 1/2 for tomorrow but I am not convinced of it yet. I am still cautious in the short-term at this price level but I am willing to begin scaling in purchases around $3.76 1/2 which will replace my long call spreads I talked about before.


MEAL - May '09 Electronic
Open - $311.10, High - $315.00, Low - $307.80, Close - $313.10 Up $1.90
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher

I said in one of my previous posts that I exited some of my meal because wanted to protect equity but would stop back into the market if I was wrong. I was wrong and therefore bought meal on about 40% of needs with futures against my long puts and then purchased a cheap call spread to give me coverage to the upside if the market makes an extended move. I am not sold on the idea the May '09 meal market is going to sky rocket from here but I know I am not smarter than the market. I see signs on the charts that tell me meal is looking for a top thus I have less aggressive ownership in futures and more in a know risk position. I had a sell signal in May '09 soybeans on Thursday at $10.23 1/2 which is still good even after today's action, it will be void if we touch $10.31 1/2 before a sell off.

Bottom line - I am looking for an early high and a late low tomorrow. Support for tomorrow looks like $311.40, $310.6 and finally $307.80. Resistance should be $315.00 and then $319.00 if the market gets enough steam to get there. Like I said earlier I am looking for an early high and a late low for tomorrow's meal trade. We are nearing a cycle high in meal which would last until the middle of May '09; this is not a recommendation of any kind, just a stated observation.


HOGS - June '09 GLOBEX
Open - $74.30, High - $74.425, Low - $73.725, Close - $74.10 Down $.175
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Friendly

Thursday's higher cutout was obviously factored into Thursday's trade because there was very little enthusiasm in the June '09 contract today. The cutout for today was also higher by $.51 but the market failed to respond favorably in extended hour's trade. The June '09 contract has a cycle high approaching on Wednesday and then trends lower for nearly a week. The June '09 contract closed above what had been resistance of $73.85 on Thursday and continued with today's close at $74.10. The longer we stay above $73.85 the stronger our chances of rallying back toward $75.90, however, I think we will see $73.20 before we see $75.90.

The U.S. Dollar Index was very weak today and is still in a downward trend and I am expecting a test of the most recent low of $82.63 over the weeks ahead. If the U.S. Dollar Index continues to weaken we could see more bullishness appear in the hog sector. I am still short June '09 hogs with a call strategy in place to give me upside to $80.00 if the market should rally. I want good confirmation that the market is finished moving lower before I exit short positions especially when I have call coverage in place to provide upside protection.

Seasonal tendencies for market close on April 15th to the market close on May 1st are as follows since the year 2000 in June futures. There have been 4 years we have moved higher on average of $2.60 and 5 years when we move lower by an average of $2.18. Looks like it is pretty even BUT when you filter the data and only look for years that were above $70.00 June futures on the market close of April 15th the data changes. In this case there were 5 years since 2000 in which the June futures closed above $70.00 on April 15th for the respective year. In those years the market declined 4 times on average of $2.16/cwt or 80% of the time vs. the 1 year that it went up $1.275/cwt or 20% of the time. I know it isn't April 15th yet but I will probably wait to see what the market is trading at on the 15th before making any adjustments to positions.

Bottom line - I am looking for an early high and a late low tomorrow as we are approaching the 15th of April and the May and June '09 contracts have a sizable lead on the cash index. I expect support to be $73.97, $73.72 and $73.35. I am looking for resistance to be $74.40, $74.82 and then $75.90 but I don't expect this level to be touched tomorrow. I am looking for a near-term top in hogs this week and the beginning of a small retracement of the recent move higher.


Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance. ]]> Jeremy Knutson http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=237 http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=237 http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TraderslogcomCommunity-Blogs/~3/iQEyT_caHR8/blog.php Wed, 01 Apr 2009 22:06:27 GMT Hog Comments - 04-01-09 - A likely test of contract low's in June hogs tomorrow.

If you have questions, comments or suggestions, contact me at 1-877-212-2564 or email me at jknutson@hurleyandassociates.com. To read what I was thinking at the highs and lows of the market go to www.leanhog.net to view my archived posts.

CORN - May '09 Electronic
Open - $4.01 1/2, High - $4.02 1/4, Low - $3.93, Close - $3.96 Down $.8 3/4.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher

As a review from yesterday I said "I expect to see an early high and a late low tomorrow as enthusiasm expires over today's USDA report findings. I look for early resistance tonight at $4.06-.07 then all the way up to $4.13 (don't think we will get there) and support should be $4.03, $3.99 3/4 and $3.96 1/2 but I think the $4.00 area should hold pretty good support. ***IF MAY '09 OPENS ABOVE $4.06 TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING A MORE NEGATIVE TONE TO TOMORROW THAT WHAT I HAVE DISCUSSED.*** I don't think we will open above $4.06 but I wanted to point it out if it does so you know what to expect from the market."

As stated above the enthusiasm from yesterday's acreage report seems to have run its course. I thought the $4.00 area would provide good support but not so. The crude oil market was down most of the day and the U.S. Dollar Index wasn't doing anything crazy so I attribute today's action to the corn market trading the corn market and nothing else. The May '09 contract broke through the low side of my support point today but closed at $3.96 just 1/2 cent off the support level. To no surprise it didn't reach my resistance level either because of the move we made yesterday.

I exited some short $3.60 May '09 put options today (it was the short side of a put spread against long futures) for $.03 just to take them off of the books and leave my long $3.80 put in place to leave the downside open if the market decides to turn and head south (unlikely). I am still in the camp of having good strategies in place to allow for upside participation in the market as I think we have a shot at testing $4.40 in the May '09 futures in the next 30 days.

Bottom line - Nothing happened today to make me think yesterday's rally was a fluke, as a matter of fact today's action was perfectly normal in my opinion. We retraced 50% of yesterday's move and held that support level which suggests we could make another run at the most recent high of $4.06 in the near future. I expect an early low and a late high tomorrow with support coming in at $3.93, $3.90 1/2 and resistance at $3.99 1/2, $4.01 and $4.06 and if we get excited $4.13 however I think it is unlikely for tomorrow.



MEAL - May '09 Electronic
Open - $293.00, High - $298.30, Low - $291.80, Close - $294.30 Down $1.00
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher

I said yesterday " the close on May '09 meal was a positive one today but like corn I think we may have gotten too excited to keep a strong rally like this going for two consecutive days. I'm looking for a steady to better open tonight only to find resistance at $296.40 then $298.70. Support should be around $293.20, $292.30 and $291.30. I am looking for an early high and a late low tomorrow in May '09 meal."

My support and resistance levels were much better in meal today than they were in corn. May '09 meal got within $.40 of my top resistance level and $.50 of my lowest support level. Like corn, May '09 meal retraced near 50% of yesterday's day session move and bounced from there. I still like the prospect of a higher meal market through time and want upside coverage in place as we move forward. That being said I exited my long meal contracts today at $294.80ish and will look to re-enter the market at a lower level if possible otherwise I will have my stop above the market to get back long if I'm wrong. I currently have a $280.00 May '09 put in place to protect downside risk on my futures (exited today) and that's what I will purchase against if the market gets to $284.00. $284.00 is just above a gap that was left in the hourly chart yesterday and they are typically a target to go back and fill.

Bottom line - I am still bullish meal and soybeans but I am still looking for a tad more downside in the May '09 meal contract. I expect an early low and a late high tomorrow with support coming in at $291.80, $288.1 and $285.50. I see resistance at $295.90, $296.40 and $298.30.



HOGS - June '09 GLOBEX
Open - $71.95, High - $72.50, Low - $70.925, Close - $71.45 Down $.95
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Friendly

Reviewing yesterday I said "The market held just above my $70.52 support number and traded .52 above my high end resistance number and closed above it for the day. The issue I have with the market doing this today is its quarter/month end and strange things can happen on days like today. I am not buying into today's trade action just yet, because there is no evidence of a stronger cash market and cutout dropped by $.99 today. I look for an early high and a late low tomorrow with resistance at $72.725 then $73.20 and support should be at $71.45 and $70.675. Cutout was down today which is in line with what the short-term charts show for tomorrow, a negative trade day. Tomorrow is the cycle low but it is more of a general area it isn't a signal to buy so as I said yesterday I will continue to look for signs in the market that suggest the move lower is over."

Like I said it seems like funny things happen on the last day of the month and especially the quarter in some markets particularly the hog market. Today confirmed that thought with June '09 giving back most of its gains from yesterday. Cash hogs are still in the toilet and the prospects of higher prices don't look that great at the moment and cutout has shown us over the course of two days that product isn't moving that well either. I remain hedged with upside potential to $80.00 in the June '09 contract. I am looking for signs of a market bottom but they are not showing up we didn't buy into the head fake the market gave us yesterday.

Bottom line - I'm looking for June '09 to continue lower tomorrow and I am expecting an early low AND high, I think the high and low of the day session will be during the first hour of trade tomorrow. The cutout was down $1.69 (I wish it were an April Fool's joke!) today so I expect nerves of those that are long to be on high alert and just puke out of positions as we can easily make new contract lows tomorrow. I am looking for a test of $69.52 tomorrow and I will need to see how we close tomorrow to decide if my cycle low this week is going to have any merit. Support in June '09 hogs for tomorrow should be $70.675, $69.52 then limit lower at $68.45. Resistance should be $71.52 and $71.70 but I don't think we will touch either of them, tomorrow could be ugly.

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance. ]]> Jeremy Knutson http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=236 http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=236 http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TraderslogcomCommunity-Blogs/~3/jvDGAibor_c/blog.php Tue, 31 Mar 2009 21:29:49 GMT If you have questions, comments or suggestions, contact me at 1-877-212-2564 or email me at jknutson@hurleyandassociates.com. To read what I was thinking at the highs and lows of the market go to www.leanhog.net to view my archived posts.

CORN - May '09 Electronic
Open - $3.86, High - $4.06, Low - $3.81 1/4, Close - $4.04 3/4 Up $.18 1/2.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher

Reviewing yesterday's comments I said "USDA report out tomorrow so that will trump any direction I have if there is a surprise. The trade is looking for corn acres to be around 86 million so anything less (85 or less in my opinion) will be positive to corn prices and I look for trade to give us an early low and a late high. Support in May '09 corn tomorrow should be $3.82, $3.81 and $3.76 3/4 while resistance should be $3.87 1/4, $3.89 1/2 then $3.92. I had a buy signal at $3.85 today with a risk management sell stop at $3.75 1/2. Market action today suggests a probable reversal to the upside tomorrow with buy stops above today's high's of $3.89 1/2."

CORRECTION - I said yesterday the trade was looking for corn acres to be 86 million when in fact it they were looking for 84.4 million acres for this year's intentions. 86 million was last year's actual plantings, my apologies.

The May '09 contract got within 1/4 cent of my mid range support level today and shattered the top end of my resistance level. As I have said for a while I want my core position in corn to be a bullish biased position to protect against moves like today. I said anything below 85 million acres should be viewed as positive by the trade and today's number was just a shade below 85 million acres. The market also responded the way the chart's suggested by having an early low and a late high today.

Today's close was a good one; the funds purchased approximately 10,000 contracts of corn and managed to close above the 62% retracement level of $4.03 in the May '09 contract. I am looking for a steady to higher opening tonight and then find resistance around $4.06 to $4.07. I expect the market to retrace some of today's gains during tomorrow's trade but bottom line is if we close above $4.03 tomorrow then we could be on our way to the number I have talked about for a couple of weeks, $4.40. We closed above what has been good resistance at $4.00 now we just need to make sure it was for real. Make sure you have some type of option coverage in place to the upside, talk with your broker about a strategy that is right for you and your operation.

Today was an event day as I like to call it. I like to sit back and watch other people trade on "event days" as a matter of fact report days make for good vacation days. Huh? My point is prepare yourself going into reports or events and know your risk therefore you need not "worry" about the news that is released and have to make decision based on emotion. With this being said I think most of the people who react to news instead of prepare for it were the ones in buying today to drive the market up as much as it was. This is fine because in the end I think buying is the right thing to do but we could see a setback tomorrow.

Bottom line - I expect to see an early high and a late low tomorrow as enthusiasm expires over today's USDA report findings. I look for early resistance tonight at $4.06-.07 then all the way up to $4.13 (don't think we will get there) and support should be $4.03, $3.99 3/4 and $3.96 1/2 but I think the $4.00 area should hold pretty good support. ***IF MAY '09 OPENS ABOVE $4.06 TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING A MORE NEGATIVE TONE TO TOMORROW THAT WHAT I HAVE DISCUSSED.*** I don't think we will open above $4.06 but I wanted to point it out if it does so you know what to expect from the market.


MEAL - May '09 Electronic
Open - $281.50, High - $296.40, Low - $281.00, Close - $295.30 Up $13.80
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher

I said yesterday "I am looking for an early low and late high with support at $277.60 and $275.10 and resistance at $282.20 and $285.00. Looking for the USDA report to give us direction tomorrow but I believe we will see positive trade based on the USDA numbers. This thought is solely based on the way the SHORT TERM charts look to me as well as the expected weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index. The dollar thing is a big deal guys."

Meal didn't get down to my support levels from yesterday and it blew through my resistance levels but the charts were right with positive trade today as a result of the USDA numbers. The planting intention report only increased soybean acres by 324,000 acres when the trade was looking for approximately 3.9 million more acres than last year. It is still a good time to have a known risk strategy in place to prevent you from paying higher prices in meal, talk with your broker about a strategy that is right for you.

Bottom line - the close on May '09 meal was a positive one today but like corn I think we may have gotten too excited to keep a strong rally like this going for two consecutive days. I'm looking for a steady to better open tonight only to find resistance at $296.40 then $298.70. Support should be around $293.20, $292.30 and $291.30. I am looking for an early high and a late low tomorrow in May '09 meal.



HOGS - June '09 GLOBEX
Open - $70.95, High - $72.725, Low - $70.675, Close - $72.40 Up $1.425
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Friendly

Reviewing yesterday I said "as I mentioned above I will continue to look for signs in the market to make me look at adjusting my short positions in the market place. In an effort to find a patter for the next couple of weeks based on the market tendencies since the year 2000; it seems as if the risk is more to the upside than to the downside. I am looking for an early low and a late high tomorrow; cutout was a non-event today as it was up $.14. I look for support at $70.52 and $69.52 and resistance should be around $71.35, $71.575 and then $72.20."

The market held just above my $70.52 support number and traded .52 above my high end resistance number and closed above it for the day. The issue I have with the market doing this today is its quarter/month end and strange things can happen on days like today. I am not buying into today's trade action just yet, because there is no evidence of a stronger cash market and cutout dropped by $.99 today.

Bottom line - I look for an early high and a late low tomorrow with resistance at $72.725 then $73.20 and support should be at $71.45 and $70.675. Cutout was down today which is in line with what the short-term charts show for tomorrow, a negative trade day. Tomorrow is the cycle low but it is more of a general area it isn't a signal to buy so as I said yesterday I will continue to look for signs in the market that suggest the move lower is over.

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance. ]]> Jeremy Knutson http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=235 http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=235 http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TraderslogcomCommunity-Blogs/~3/ISRlHfZO5R8/blog.php Mon, 30 Mar 2009 20:51:01 GMT If you have questions, comments or suggestions, contact me at 1-877-212-2564 or email me at jknutson@hurleyandassociates.com. To read what I was thinking at the highs and lows of the market go to www.leanhog.net to view my archived posts.

CORN - May '09 Electronic
Open - $3.87 3/4, High - $3.89 1/2, Low - $3.76 3/4, Close - $3.86 1/4 Down $.00 3/4.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher

Today was interesting considering we have the USDA March planting intentions report due out tomorrow morning. May '09 corn was down $.05 in the overnight session then opened the day session made an early low and closed near its high for the day session. I was surprised to see the corn market as strong as it was with crude oil being down over $4.00/barrel today.

I made a comment on how weak the U.S. Dollar Index has been after the Government said they were going to buy toxic assets from the banks. Since my comments the dollar has risen and made near a 50% retracement of its most recent decline which is normal. I am still of the opinion the dollar is heading south which is obviously good for the commodities markets. I want to keep a bullish structure to any positions I have on for feed. As of right now I'm long futures with a $3.80-$3.60 put spread in place on the May '09 contract. The put strategy allows us to be long the market without getting clobbered if we are wrong.

Bottom line - USDA report out tomorrow so that will trump any direction I have if there is a surprise. The trade is looking for corn acres to be around 86 million so anything less (85 or less in my opinion) will be positive to corn prices and I look for trade to give us an early low and a late high. Support in May '09 corn tomorrow should be $3.82, $3.81 and $3.76 3/4 while resistance should be $3.87 1/4, $3.89 1/2 then $3.92. I had a buy signal at $3.85 today with a risk management sell stop at $3.75 1/2. Market action today suggests a probable reversal to the upside tomorrow with buy stops above today's high's of $3.89 1/2.


MEAL - May '09 Electronic
Open - $284.30, High - $285.50, Low - $277.70, Close - $281.50 Down $2.30
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher

As you may have noticed I have added a my long term thoughts in black and white just below the market close on each commodity I talk about. I try to give a longer-term directional feel to the market but I may forget it sometimes and if you follow along with my comments my short-term commentary can easily be contrary to my long term feel. I am trying to make my thoughts more clear to you so please let me know if you have suggestions and thanks to those who have.

Today's low of $277.70 was within $.10 of the 62% retracement of the recent move higher. The May '09 contract needs to get back above $283.60 for a couple of days before we look to make another run toward $308.90. I have the same thoughts on meal as I do on corn, I think we will see an early low and a late high tomorrow but remember any surprises in from the USDA and all bets are off.

Bottom line - I am looking for an early low and late high with support at $277.60 and $275.10 and resistance at $282.20 and $285.00. Looking for the USDA report to give us direction tomorrow but I believe we will see positive trade based on the USDA numbers. This thought is solely based on the way the SHORT TERM charts look to me as well as the expected weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index. The dollar thing is a big deal guys.


HOGS - June '09 GLOBEX
Open - $70.60, High - $71.20, Low - $70.525, Close - $70.975 Down $.425
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Friendly

The market was trading the Quarterly Hog & Pig report from Friday which was evidently mildly bearish according to today's trade. I am looking for a place to lighten my short position this week if the charts suggest we do so. I have been saying for awhile in my comments that I have a cycle low near the end of March which I still do. I will be looking for signs and signals that suggest a bottom and look to re-structure my short positions when I see these signs. Today is the first one; we opened the market below Friday's low and rallied off of the open. The day and potential signal started out okay but failed to close above the crucial Friday low so I will keep looking.

In doing my research it tells me that June futures move lower from the close of April 1st to the close of April 15th 44.5% of the time by an average of $2.86/cwt and up 55.5% of the time by an average of $3.23/cwt. I talk about June because I am no longer using April '09 as a hedge vehicle which makes sense as the June has dropped near $3.00/cwt more than April since the week of March 16th (from high to low of the spread).

Bottom line - as I mentioned above I will continue to look for signs in the market to make me look at adjusting my short positions in the market place. In an effort to find a patter for the next couple of weeks based on the market tendencies since the year 2000; it seems as if the risk is more to the upside than to the downside. I am looking for an early low and a late high tomorrow; cutout was a non-event today as it was up $.14. I look for support at $70.52 and $69.52 and resistance should be around $71.35, $71.575 and then $72.20.


Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance. ]]> Jeremy Knutson http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=234 http://www.traderslog.com/forum/blog.php?b=234