Trading Room

Bearish Outlook for Hang Seng Index

2013-03-17T11:43:00.002+08:00

HSI 2013/03/11 to 2013/03/17 Review

the current downward movement of HSI is more than a correction
HSI is below 50 SMA and below a short term down trend. I can seen heavy distribution on a lot of the HSI index stock. The smart money is running. The current lateral trend line support for HSI is 22500, if this line is broken. I will go shorting the HSI.

Article by Trading Room www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com

Lehmann brothers Bond VS Greece Gov. Bond

2012-05-19T10:24:00.000+08:00

Previous we have the Lehmann brothers bond which trigger the global financial crisis in the year 2008. Now about 4 years later we have the Greece Government bond. If the Greece government decide to default on its debt servicing. The country will therefore declare bankrupcy and will be force out of Euro. If this happen, it is going to trigger another wave of global financial crisis. Plenty of Investor, top banks and businessman holding Greece government bond will be like holding a piece of paper which is worth less than the normal A4 paper we can buy from the grocery. The default on Greece government bond will trigger a chain reaction. The Greece by itself is in a very financial instable state. There was evidence of run on the bank recently, people are really worry about there country exiting the eurozone. To make it simple, what is happening to Greece is like someone who had owe huge amount of Debt. But they are unable to service their debt, so what they need to do is to borrow more money from other (e.g. ECB) to service there debt temporary. If the ECB stop injecting capital into the country, Greece won't be able to service their debt. Article by Trading Room www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com

Hong Kong Hang Seng index hitting points

2012-01-29T22:40:00.002+08:00

As a continuation to my previous article. The HSI has indeed had reached 20000 point level and now is hovering around the 20500 level. This is another critical level, if the HSI can goes above 21000, it will be the beginning of a new uptrend for HSI and we can hope to see it reach up to 24000 points in the future.

Article by Trading Roomwww.tradingforreal.blogspot.com

Hang seng index Breakout

2012-01-18T18:57:00.001+08:00

In response to my previous article, the HSI has continue to move upwards from it's breakout point. I expect this bull run to continue and it will meet some resistance at 20000 points.

Article by Trading Roomwww.tradingforreal.blogspot.com

Breakout pattern seen on Hang Seng Index

2012-01-11T01:40:00.002+08:00

The HSI has broke out from its triangle pattern and it seems it is going to move higher in the future. Currently I will be bullish on the market base on the information above.

Article by Trading Room
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FREE In love with you: Guitar Chords, John Laudon

2011-12-03T23:07:00.004+08:00

Original Key Eb/Gb/A/C. Choosen Key: D/F/Ab/B 4/4

D D/F# G Bm
Just a gentle whisper told me that you're gone
G D/F# Em A
Leaving only memories where did we go wrong
D D/F# G Bm
I couldn't find the words then, so let me say them now
G Em A D
I'm still in love with you
F F/A Gm C F
Tell me that you love me, tell me that you care
Bb F/A Gm7
Tell me that you need me and I'll be there
Bb Dm C
I'll be there waiting

Will be continue

Article by Trading Roomwww.tradingforreal.blogspot.com

In love with you. By John laudon (guitar chords)

2011-11-22T08:46:00.002+08:00

I have been trying very hard to look for guitar version of the song "in love with you" by John laudon lately. I should be able to find it soon. Once I get it., I will post it here!!

Article by Trading Roomwww.tradingforreal.blogspot.com

Super Trader

2011-07-09T16:21:00.002+08:00

After reading almost 2/3 of the book "super trader" by van tharp, I tell myself it is one of the best book I read on trading. I highly recommend it to anyone interested in trading for a living. In the book, it shown u how to build a trading system that really fit your own belief n test it systematically to make sure it is a profitable system. I was especially surprise by the fact that even random entry can make money as long as u have good exit n stop loss in place. Great book!!!

CMC market Trial account

2011-05-08T12:48:00.003+08:00

After calling CMC market, I managed to get the password and account no. for the trial account. After my successful login to the web base market maker platform, I find the interface not very user friendly. I am on my two week trial run of this CMC market platform, I will see how I go after this two week peroids.

My task this coming week is to do paper trading via the CMC market platform and learn about the different types of order from CMC like OCO, limited order and IF DONE order.

BTW my birthday just passed by one day ago, I have learnt that birthday are not necessary happy. This is what I call unhappy birthday.

Article by Trading Room
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Potential online CFD broker

2011-05-01T12:15:00.002+08:00

After 1 week of research, I have locked into two potential online CFD provider for my trading purpose. They are IG market and CMC market. Both are large firm with long history of providing CFD trading. After finishing the PDS (product disclosure statement) of CMC market, I have download the software Market maker and try to have the two week free trials. But somehow, they didn't send me the account no. and password for the free trials account. I am planning to call them next week to follow up on this issue.

My task for this coming week is to Call CMC market about the 2 week free trials.

Article by Trading Room
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New Wealth Creation Begins!!

2011-04-24T11:51:00.002+08:00

Start from today, I have make up my mind to start my wealth creation program all over again. Despite reading more than 30 books on wealth creation involving Stock trading, Investing and real estate investing. I felt I am really going no where. It is time to stop reading and take more action.

As at 24th April 2011, my investment portfolio includes:

Share trading: Nil.

Share investing:
Pacific basin (HK: 2343) - Target price $6.50
Bank of China (HK:3988) - Target price $4.80
Esprit (HK: 330) - Target price $80.00

Real estate investing: Nil.

Business: Nil.

N.B. I have separate Share investing and Share trading because I think there is a key difference between the two. For Investing, the time frame is longer, can be up to 3 years and the most important thing is to find a good company to invest and to buy at a fair or bargain price. For share trading, the time frame is much shorter and I don't really care whether it is a good company or not. My entry decision will be base mainly on technical entry. I can go Long or Short. Depending on the market condition.

I planned to hold share investment for a longer period until it reach my target price. Currently I will start focusing my effort in share trading with CFD (Contract for Difference). My task is to find a good online CFD broker that deal with HK shares.

Article by Trading Room
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What's the purpose of LiFe??

2011-03-21T23:41:00.001+08:00

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Article by Trading Roomwww.tradingforreal.blogspot.com

Baltic Dry Index Rebound Feb 2011

2011-02-16T18:15:00.002+08:00

The baltic dry index which measure the cost of shipping dry bulk globally has finally take a break from its previous downtrend and had seen a small rebound recently. There are many factors causing the decline in BDI and the main one is the oversupply of Ships while the relative demand for dry bulk shipping hasn't keep up with the supply. Another reason for the recent decline is the flooding disaster in Australia which is the main global exporter of coal and another reason is the major consumer of iron ore China has close off its import because of Chinese New Year recently. But as the flooding disaster in Australia is improving and with the finishing of Chinese New Year holiday, we should continue to see the BDI rebound for a while. However, I remain cautious over the long term view for BDI over this year because of the oversupply of new ships.

Article by Trading Room
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Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 17-05-2010

2010-05-17T04:53:00.002+08:00

The market did received some support from the 19000 level and the HSI has remain steady just above the 20000 level. So far since OCT 2009, the market had been moving side way, which is not going anywhere at all.

3 month Daily Chart
HSI has rebound from the lower border of the Bollinger Band and has move side way for the last week between the 20000 and 20500 level. Other way to say it is the HSI is consolidating. Both the 7 and 30 day EMA is down. The current 3 months trend is not clear.

1 Year Weekly Chart
There is a potential for double bottom to be forming but it will need the HSI to rally and close somewhere around 20800 level to confirm it. But my feeling on the weekly chart is the market is likely to go lower in the short term.

Overall, I am more prone to bearish in the short term but the long term is still bullish.

Article by Trading Room
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Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 09-05-2010

2010-05-09T10:24:00.003+08:00

We have experience some severe correction last week, with the HSI dropping more than 1000 point. The market has been in a bit of a panic mode. The reason people say about the correction was because of the Debt crisis in Greece which might progress throughout the whole European market. In my opinion, the market had definitely overreact.

3 Months Daily Chart
On the daily chart, we can see wilden Bollinger Band which meant increasing volatile of the market. The HSI bar is currently outside the Bollinger Band, meaning the market in the short term has been oversold. It is likely we can see some support in this level.

1 Year Weekly Chart
HSI has dropped back to the recent low level of around 19000. Here we can see a potential double bottom forming if the HSI rebound from this level. If HSI continue to penetrate below the 19000 level, we might be able to see HSI to go even lower.

Currently the market is fill with uncertainty. If I am a buyer, I will start buying more security at bargain price, of coz there is no promise that the market won't go lower, but if the market goes lower, you can continue to average down your position. So don't eat too full, there might be more bargain ahead.

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Trading Room
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Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 03-05-2010

2010-05-03T02:45:00.002+08:00

Last Week the Market had fall more than I had expected. Reaching some support at the level around 21000.

3 Months Daily Chart
It looks like we are in a 3 months uptrend. With HSI suffering a recent correction. I think price will gain some support from the 21000 level.

1 Year Weekly Chart
With HSI staying right above 30 week EMA. In my view it is unlikely for HSI to drop further. If HSI continue to rebound well from the 21000 level. We should be seeing a new wave of upward move.

Article by Trading Room
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Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 25-04-2010

2010-04-24T16:25:00.004+08:00

The HSI had pull back from it recent high of 22200 to 21200 secondary to profit taking as we have suggested.

3 Months Daily Chart

The HSI has move under the 7 and 30 day EMA indicating the short term HSI is back to its value zone. It is like to attract more trader to buy at this price and it will should some support around the 21200 level. The HSI should rebound in the short term.

1 Year Weekly Chart

The HSI is resting on the 13 week EMA. On the weekly chart, it seems very obvious to me the HSI was bound to the 22000 to 20000 trading range for more than 7 months. It is really time for the HSI to break out of this range and move higher.

Overall I am bullish on both long and short term. I am waiting for the second wave of market rally which will hopefully reach the 25000 level or more.

Article by

Trading Room

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Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 2010-04-18

2010-04-17T12:41:00.003+08:00

As expected my from last comment, the HSI did received some selling pressure on around the 22000 level. Ending the week at around the 21800 level.

3 Months Daily Chart

On the Daily chart, the HSI had fall back to the 7 day EMA and staying above the 30 day EMA. The Bollinger band had get continue to get wilder compare to the previous week. In my opinion, the HSI is likely to fall to 21500 level and get support from there. Overall the three month trend is an up.

1 Year Weekly Chart

Both 13 and 30 week EMA are pointing upwards and HSI staying above both EMA. On the weekly chart, it seems to me that it is very likely the HSI will break above the 22000 level and go to probably 23000 level in the longer run. The current 1 year trend is UP.

Overall I am bullish on both short and long term. The HSI may fall lower but I think it is very unlikely to fall below 21000 level.

Article by
Trading Room
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Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 11-04-2010

2010-04-10T14:09:00.003+08:00

The HSI has reach out target of 22000. It been a very bullish week despite having only three trading days.

3 Months Daily Chart

On the daily chart, the HSI has move outside the Bollinger Band, indicating increasing volatility and showing the strength of the Bull. The HSI close on Friday at around 22200 level. The HSI has lift off from the 7 and 30 day EMA. Which seemed to tell me that in the short run, the HSI is a bit overvalue on a technical basis and it is likely to meet more selling pressure from traders next week. But the HSI will regain support if it fall back to the 30 day EMA.

1 Year Weekly Chart

The HSI has breakout from the trading range of 20000 to 22000. The HSI is staying above 13 and 30 week EMA with both EMA pointing upwards. All these are longer term bullish signs. I predict the HSI should be able to reach 25000 at the end of the year.

Overall I am bullish in the longer term, in the short term I mean few days to 1-2 weeks. The HSI is going to meet some selling pressure so I don't expect the HSI to move upward a lot. For me I will continue to hold on to my long positions.

Article by
Trading Room
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Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 03-04-2010

2010-04-03T09:37:00.002+08:00

The HSI had continued to do well last week, reaching a even higher high level of 21500 for the last month. There is something I want to emphasis about this point, whenever a stock price or a index is reaching a higher high compare to the previous high level. We say the price is advancing well. Another well to put it is saying the bull is getting stronger because it was able to push the price up to a higher level. As I said before, an uptrend is characterized by higher peaks and higher troughs.

3 Months Daily Chart
It seems that the HSI is going to break above 21500 level and advance further to 22000. The HSI finished on Friday with a Bullish Bar. My definition of a Bullish bar is on that period the HSI open on the low end of the bar and close on the high end with price range having a higher high and higher low compare to the previous bar. I reckon this is quite a bullish signal on a daily chart. Some trader might see this signal as a trigger of entry for long position when this signal is associate with a short term uptrend (which it was in this case.) And also Bollinger Band had been narrow, so the premium for Call Option will be relatively cheap. On an option trader perspective, it can be a good opportunity to open a long Call on HSI last Friday. P.S. HSI had continue to stay above both 7 and 30 day EMA.

1 Year Weekly Chart
On the weekly chart, it shown a similar bullish bar last week. The distance between the 13 and 30 Week EMA had become more further apart. And both EMA are starting to turn up with HSI staying above both EMA. All these are bullish signs. In fact you can see the HSI has actually formed a trading range between the level 22000 and 20000 over the past 7 months. In my opinion, the Market was resting on this trading rest before it is going to form another big bullish move. Prior to this trading range, HSI had advanced from 12000 to 20000 which was a big move indeed. The market need some time to rest before it can advance further.

Article by
Trading Room
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Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 29-03-2010

2010-03-29T01:08:00.002+08:00

The HSI has been moving sideway last week. With the open on Monday and the close on Friday at around 21000 to 21100 level. Which means it hasn't really moved at all.

3 Months Daily Chart
The HSI test support level at around 20500 and receive good support from that level. With HSI ending at the level of 7 and 30 days EMA. HSI is likely to continue its upward move on this coming week.

1 Year Weekly Chart
HSI has tested the support level provided by the 30 week EMA. With HSI staying above both 13 and 30 weeks EMA.

Overall, both short and long term I am still bullish. The market is having a bit of a correction after a bullish run. It is taking a break before it is going to move to a higher level.

Article by
Trading Room
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Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 20-03-2010

2010-03-20T11:34:00.002+08:00

The Hang Seng Index had continued its upward move. Reaching a higher high compare to the previous week. Everything is going well in this current uptrend. The trend is slowly building its strength.

3 Months Daily Chart
The HSI is staying above the 7 and 30 day EMA. The market has been moving in a particular pattern which involved a big upward moved in one day then followed by few days of consolidation. As far as the current uptrend is concern, it was making higher peaks and troughs. Typical seen in an uptrend.

1 Year Weekly Chart
The HSI remained above the 13 and 30 week EMA. With the 13 week EMA started to slope upwards.

Overall both the current and long term trend are UP. The market is likely to test higher highs with the latest resistance on 22000 points.

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Trading Room
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Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 14-03-2010

2010-03-14T00:19:00.002+08:00

The HSI has continue to be strong last week, staying above 21000 point.

3 Months Daily Chart
The beginning of a short term uptrend is forming. 21500 points is a very likely to be reach in 1-2 weeks time. Continue to be bullish.

1 Year Weekly Chart
HSI has stay above both 13 and 30 week EMA. The direction of both EMA are going sideways. The market had continue to recover from the previous correction.

Overall I am bullish on both short and long term.

Article by
Trading Room
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Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 06-03-2010

2010-03-06T17:01:00.002+08:00

Look like the HSI has continue to strengthen over the past week. It seems like the beginning of a short term up trend is going to form.

3 Months Daily Chart
On the 3 months chart, HSI has made a new high up to 21000 points and it has breakout from the resistance line at around 20500. All this is looking bullish. It has been forming a higher low and higher high. With the lowest trough at around 19500 then a higher trough at 20000. And I think 20500 will form a good support line for HSI. One more point to look at is HSI has also move above the 7 day and 30 day EMA.

1 Year Weekly Chart
The HSI has continue to form a nice base of around 20000. The HSI is resting nicely on the 13 and 30 week EMA.

In conclusion, in both short and long term, I am very bullish about the HSI with a short term target of around 22000.

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Trading Room
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HSBC and Pacific Basin Company result analysis

2010-03-06T16:41:00.003+08:00

It was a pretty good week for the HSI. It has gone up to 21000 points then come back to end at around 20700 points. To be honest I am quite disappointed with the result of HSBC and Pacific Basin. Especially to HSBC result. So before I go on with the market outlook, I will talk about the result analysis briefly. With HSBC (5), it shown a decline in Profit before tax of about 20% compare to year 2008. Despite this, the company had made a pretty good job in reducing its tax. Thus making it Profit after tax of $6.6 Billion which was a slight increase compare to year 2008. So it other words, you can say its net profit after tax is almost the same as the year before. But if you look at the EPS, you can see a decrease from 41 cents US to 34 cents US. It is mainly due to the share right issue, which cause a dilution effects on the EPS. For the year 2009, HSBC is pay DPS of 34 cents US. Which means it is giving out 100% of its profit to its owner/shareholder. And for Pacific Basin (2343), its shown a decline in profit of about 70%. Which is expected by most brokers because of the effect of economic crisis. I hope this is going to be the least profitable year for Pacific Basin and with the ongoing economic recovery, I am still very optimistic about the company future. With a DPS of 0.23 cents HK, considering my buy price of $5.35, I should be getting a dividend return of around 4.2% p.a. In conclusion, I will continue to hold on to these two companies.

Article by
Trading Room
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