Interestingly, the difference between the registered numbers, and the numbers that received bibs, decreased by the same percentage for both men and women. Each came down by 6%.

Below I’ve updated my Kona slot estimates. But, take these with a grain of salt — they’ll be close, but as we’ve found out lately there is a great mystery surrounding the actual allocation of Kona slots. No one actually seems to know the exact formula used for allocating the slots, and there are several alternative methods for allocating slots proportional to age group size (as WTC says they do). And, there seems to be some inconsistency between events as well. Will be doing more investigation on this.

In the meantime, here are the new estimates. The only change from the previous, is that M60-64 looks like it picks up a slot, and F30-34 loses one.

That one spot can make a big difference.
The difference in time from the F30-34 2nd and 3rd place was about 18 minutes! Based on last year’s 2nd position, those in that age group are going to have to target something like a 10:11 time! Goes to show you that all of this really is dependent on who shows up — there is always someone out there that will likely be much faster (unless you are that person!)

In my previous estimate, a person on SlowTwitch who has a copy of the fabled spreadsheet, said that my numbers were off — attributing one too many to M35-39, and one too few to M60-64. So, until we get an answer on exactly how these are calculated, this is just an estimate. See this thread for a discussion of the various ways Kona slots could be calculated.

I’ve been looking over the age group counts for this year’s IronMan CDA, and as per usual, there will be precious few Kona slots to go around. Based off the most recent participant list, there are 2,831 registered, and just 50 golden tickets to go around.

Seven age groups will only have a single Kona slot available, so unfortunately while the competition may get slower with age, your odds do not necessarily get a lot better. Mens 40-44 are again the largest group with 6 slots for 457 racing… mid-life crisis can hit you real hard!

My age group, the next up — 45-49, will get just 4 slots. By the luck of the numbers, that is actually the worst numerical odds of any age group! Not a lot to work with there!

Now, on to the stats.

These will probably change a little after they release bib numbers, as I’ve probably got the pros mixed in based on their age. If there are a lot of pros in the Mens 35-39 or the Women’s 30-34 that could move a slot out of those, and into another. The beneficiary would probably first be the Mens 60-64.

Let me know if you’re going for one of these kona spots. And, good luck!

No more mass starts at CDA

IronMan is experimenting with some new swim start options at three races this year, including IronMan Coeur D’Alene. That race, in part known for the mass beach start, will now have a self-selected staggered start. Here’s how they describe it:

Athletes will enter the water in a continuous stream through a controlled access point, similar to how running road races are started. An athlete’s times will start when they cross timing mats under the swim arch.

There are a variety of other changes, including the addition of floating resting stations in the swim course. Also, they mention that they are going to start having in-water warmups at all IM events whenever possible.

The changes sound like they will make the swim start more safe.
The only real negatives I see are

1) You really won’t know whether you are ahead or behind anyone on course.
2) The clock at the finish line won’t be accurate. So, the announcer won’t be able to cheer people in saying “C’mon James, 10 more seconds to break 12 hours!”.
3) You lose the excitement of that cannon going off and everyone surging for the water, that is fun.

Read more about the new “Swim Smart” program here.

Got to meet Ali Black, Lesley Patterson, and Andy Potts. Photo from Santiago Photography.

The short version of the race is that it felt like as close to perfect a race as I can muster. Everything went smoothly, and even better, I was able to maintain focus and really race the whole time. I’ll give you a brief play-by-play after the jump.

Here’s a quick run-down on the race:

• Went oatmeal instead of my traditional waffles for breakfast. risky, but it sat well on my previous night’s tuna-mac n’ cheese.
• Brought a pump to transition, made me the most popular guy at my rack.
• I was passed for the first time on the day by the guy who poached my honey bucket from right in front of me.
• Was in 18th wave, which gave me time to watch the pros leave T1. I thought Potts would finish lower because he had a big pack right behind him.
• First leg of the swim I had a guy on my left, who was insisting on curving right. We pretty much wrestled all the way to the first buoy.
• Escaped curvy when I saw some faster feet go by me on the right and I actually was able to draft them — a first successful draft! PR swim at 32:30.
• Got on the bike and felt like a rock star for about 40 miles. I’ll admit it’s fun just streaming past the masses of age groupers from that far back. Passed by three people — two guys in “wattie ink” kits and another guy.
• Realized I may be pushing too hard, so backed off my “hammer snow canyon” plan a bit. Finished bike in 2:32, really happy with that considering the course.
• Snow canyon is so beautiful, in fact the whole course is. This place is awesome.
• Went out on the run and felt better than expected. Vowed to do no walking (did two previous St. George fulls and was looking forward to a rematch with that run course).
• Got some side stitches about halfway, seemed to help if I ran while clenching my abs — could have backfired if suffering GI distress at the same time.
• Passed by 5 guys in 45-49 on the run, but ran as fast as I could for now. My planned kick on diagonal failed to materialize, although seeing a local guy coming who’s poached me at the line several times did give me a boost in the last 10k. 1:47 run, happy with that, know I could get better with more work.

Finished with nothing in the tank, held my focus for the whole race, finished just under 5 hours (4:59:03). Very happy with result.

No worlds slot, 13th in AG, but felt good about it. Andy Potts said at the pro panel the day before that he doesn’t consider getting beat by a worthy competitor a loss. I was beaten, but I feel like a winner on the day!

Crossing the finish for the 3rd time in St. George. Great race!

If you’re interested, the race is going to be truly epic, incredibly competitive, and beautiful. And, Craig Alexander will be on the play by play (I really wish I could watch the online coverage!). Tune in here tomorrow, the race starts at 7:00.

And, if you’re interested, here is the link to my splits. Hoping to avoid the crash and burn!

Good luck to all my friends racing. And thanks to all the others supporting and volunteering down here. And, thanks to my family, Michelle and my Mom, for cheering me on, get that cowbell cranked up!

It is well worth a read:

THURSDAY OR FRIDAY (highly suggest you check in a Thursday if possible) must check in by 6 pm on Friday. You can check in as early as 11 am on Thursday and 10 am on Friday. You must check in Thursday or Friday down at the Town Square. It is on Main Street just off of St. George Blvd.

You must present ID and USAT membership # (if you do not have an annual membership ($40) you must purchase a day membership ($12). These are required at every race.

You will sign a waiver and double check medical info and emergency contact info.
At check in you will receive a wrist band (do not take this off until after the race–you have to show your wrist band to get in and out of transitions before the race and to take your bike out when the race is over). You will also get your timing chip, swim cap, t-shirt, bag, race #s, and 3 plastic bags for gear.

Start organizing your gear. Lay out your 3 bags and put the GEAR BAG stickers on each. (these are stickers with your race # that they give you at check in). Put the sticker on your helmet, bike stem and frame. Attach the bib # to your race belt.

After the break, race prep, schedule, and even some race day psychology!

I like to place all the items that I am going to put in each bag on top of the bag so I can visually see it all and make sure I have everything before I shove it all into the bags.
For example,

MORNING CLOTHES BAG (GREEN)
-wetsuit
-goggles
-swim cap
-Glide (anti chaffing)
-water bottle to sip on
-sports drink to sip on
-any food I want to drink prior to the race (ex. banana, energy shot, etc.)

BIKE GEAR BAG (BLUE)
-helmet
-sunglasses
-biking shoes
-socks
-anything i want to throw in my pockets before I hop on the bike (nutrition, etc)
-all food and drink to put ON your bike before the race starts (if you didn’t already put it on your bike Friday when you checked it in).

RUN GEAR BAG (RED)
-running shoes
-visor/hat
-race belt (with bib # attached)
-anything I want to throw in my pockets or carry (nutrition, etc.)
-watch??

FRIDAY
You must check in your bike at T1 (transition one) out by the lake between 2-7 pm. (once again, earlier the better). Put your sticker on your frame and stem before you check in your bike. Stickers must be on your bike. Don’t over inflate your tires. They get hot sitting there all day and I have heard way too many tires blow. You will have a chance to check your bike race morning before you start and you can pump your tires then. Sometime they have an assigned spot for your bike but usually for 70.3s you have an assigned bike rack. For example, your race number might be 1450 and there will be a rack for bike 1420-1460. You will put your bike on that rack. I’d suggest having your bike pointing which ever way you will be running out (this will determine which side of the rack you rack it on) this way you don’t have to turn your bike around to run out with it.

You also have the option of checking in your RUN GEAR bag Friday between 2-7 pm as well. I’d suggest doing this. One last thing you have to worry about race morning. This bag you will drop off at T2 (transition 2) which is at the Town Square.

As you can see…you have lots of little jobs to do on Friday and everything always takes longer than you expect. So give yourself plenty of time.

SATURDAY
You will leave the house having eaten a good breakfast 3-4 hours before your race start time. Wearing your race kit (top and bottom/suit) and timing chip with warm clothes over; carrying your MORNING CLOTHES bag and BIKE GEAR BAG.
You will need to be dropped off at Town Square (T2) to take a shuttle to the lake where the race will start. (note that there are windows of time where spectators can get to the lake—and they will not be allowed to drive on the roads from the lake until 10:30). This shuttle that you’ll take runs from 4:30-5:30 am. Again, earlier the better. You are not allowed to drive out and park at the lake although you could be dropped off at the entrance to the park. The bus will take you up to the lake (T1). You will have the option before you get on the bus to drop off your RUN GEAR bag if you didn’t on Friday. You can also just go see it if you’d like When you get on the bus you will be carrying your BIKE GEAR bag and MORNING CLOTHES bag.

T1 (out at the lake) opens and will allows athletes to start coming in at 5 am. All athletes must be out of the transition area by 6:45. Here you will get your race # written on your arm as well as your race age (age at the end of the year) written on your calf. Also, go and set up your bike gear. You can put your food on your bike, put on your filled water bottles, pump your tires, use the bathroom AGAIN. Go to T2 with your water bottles filled.
Take your helmet, shoes, socks, sunglasses out of your BIKE GEAR bag. Place these items on your now empty bag. I put my helmet on my handle bars. I also have layed out any items i will stick in my pockets after the swim.

Take your wetsuit out of your MORNING CLOTHES bag and start putting on your wetsuit. If you put your foot in a plastic sack and then put it in the leg of your suit it really helps to slide your foot through. Then just pull the sack off. Apply GLIDE on your neck to help keep the wetsuit from giving you a nice hickey on your neck. Double check that your timing chip is still on and secure. You can put a small safety pin through the velcro just do make sure it never comes off. Put on your cap and goggles! Then put all the warm clothes you were wearing into the MORNING CLOTHES bag. There will be bins, marked with race #s to drop this bag into. These bags will then be taken to Town Square and available for you to get after the race. Bring an old pair of flip flops to walk around in and then just take them off before you get in the water.

SWIM
Race starts at 7. Your wave goes at ?? Volunteers will be holding boards with your same color of cap taped on it. Line up with them. My guess is you will be filed into the water as waves leave. So, you will probably have 3 minutes in the water before your wave goes. Take this time to put your head under the water several times. Blow bubbles. Stay calm. Use this time to get used to the cold water on your face. When your horn blows stay calm and relaxed. It is hard in open water to tell how fast you take off because there are no walls like in a pool and no clock. Often times people start out way too fast because of adrenaline and the race situation and then a couple minutes into it they stat to panic and can’t breathe. Find a swimmer or group of swimmer that are just a little bit faster than you and draft off of them. Look up and site for the buoys often (like every 5 breaths or so). Don’t trust the swimmer in front of you to be swimming on course. Look up to make sure you are swimming to the next buoy.

Is this the longest email of your life yet?

As you get out of the water, a volunteer will most likely help you out and undo the top of your wetsuit. As you run to your bike in T1 take off your cap and goggles and start taking your wetsuit down off of your shoulders. As you pull your hand out, leave your cap and goggles inside the arm of your wetsuit. That way you won’t drop or lose them!
Run up to your bike. Strip off your wetsuit. If you pull it down to you feet you can step on the legs of it to pull out your feet. Put on your helmet and sunglasses first. BUCKLE YOUR HELMET STRAP. This gives your feet a second more to dry to make putting on socks easier. St. George could easily be in the high 90′s so I’d suggest socks. If you like riding without socks then you can always put the on before your run. Then….throw your wetsuit in your empty BIKE GEAR bag. It’s not the end of the world if you don’t. Volunteers will bag peoples things up after but you can’t guarantee that they’ll get your wetsuit in your bag. This bag will also be available for you to pick up at Town Square after the race. Volunteers will be there to slather sunscreen all over your body. Take advantage of this. If it’s hot people are going to burn BAD. They are really fast.

BIKE
Run your bike out of transition area. There will be signs and markers as to when you can MOUNT and get on your bike. Your on the bike now! There will be 3 aid stations. Throw out your empty water bottle at the aid stations and grab a new one. It will probably be hot so be sure to drink plenty! Once again, it’s all about pacing. Don’t start out too fast. Build into it. Volunteers will warn you for sharp turns and when it is necessary to slow down. Signs and markers will again indicate where you can DISMOUNT and get off your bike. Run your bike into T2. Volunteers will hep direct you to your spot. You will have already seen your spot when you set up your RUN GEAR bag but sometimes you can get a little turned around. You can always yell out your race # so they can help direct you easier. Rack your bike. Take off your shoes, helmet and maybe your sunglasses (if you don’t want to run with them). Take your stuff out of your RUN GEAR bag. Put on your running shoes. YANKS are elastic laces so you don’t have to tie your shoes and you can just slip them on. You can put your helmet and shoes now in your empty RUN GEAR bag but i don’t worry about this as much because volunteers aren’t going to gather up the bags and take them anywhere. Everything will be on the ground when you are done. Grab your race belt (that has your bib # attached onto) and visor (I’d suggest wearing a visor to keep the sun off you….but this is personal preference. Some people like hats but I like to be able to dump cups of water straight onto my head during the run. You can wear sunglasses. You can wear both!) Grab your race belt and visor or whatever and start running/walking out. Put them on while you’re on the go. If you missed the sunscreen in T1, definitely get some now!!

RUN
Start out slow. Take the first mile or 2 easy. Don’t be afraid to walk the first few minutes if you have to. You have just rode 56 miles hunched over and to stand up and run can be an adjustment. We will talk more about your race plan and strategies later. Walk every aid station. Walk the hills?? Enjoy the coke! Avoid the pretzels

Run in for the finish!!! Remember this moment and the emotions! High fives and fist pumps!

Even if you’re feeling sick to your stomach after the race and DO NOT feel like eating anything. Give yourself a little bit of time but I PROMISE you will feel better after you eat. They’ll most likely have pizza. Have a couple slices. It will help settle your stomach.

(this is Chris again)
Wes Johnson and Jen run Balanced Art Multisport — they have probably 15 athletes racing down here this weekend, and they organize the winter training camp I attend every year. Wes is a USAT Level II certified coach, and one of the fastest swimmers you will ever see. If you are looking for a coach I definitely recommend them!

“A Wind Advisory means that sustained wind speeds of at least
31 mph or gusts of 45 mph are expected. Motorists in the advisory
area should be prepared for sudden gusty Crosswinds which can
make driving difficult.”

So, i’m assuming that if they say driving a car might be difficult, then riding a disc will be a piece of cake?

So, here are the total by age group:

To calculate the Kona spots you take the total available (50) assign one to each age group represented, then divide the others proportionally.

The “time last year” shows the time raced last year for the number on the bubble this year. And, the “odds” column shows the percentage of participants in that age group who will qualify.

These will change a bit depending on the proportions of actual finishers.

As most people’s taper begins for St. George Saturday after next, there have been some interesting blog posts about the race. The pro field is going to be the best of the year outside of Kona, so you don’t want to miss it. Seriously, if I wasn’t racing I would really love to watch this race.

Over on IronMan.com Greg Welch has put up his top-ten picks for men and women’s overall. It’s an interesting read and will give you a feel for just how DEEP this field is. My one beef — Ben Hoffman, former St. George champion is not in your top ten? He probably knows more than I do (actually, he definitely knows more than I do) but I say Ben has to be in there.

Read the post here.