Treeatwork

on Games Without Frontiers

2013-05-05T21:02:00.000+07:00

Hi Sunday, time to talk of television. No, not the news kind but the better ones.

Television have been so much better these days. I dare say, combined with my irrational fears of malls and cinemas, I might well prefer to sit and watch my dose of beauties from television. These days, however, the whole lot is digital except for the news, which I saw less and less. After all, everything is getting very blurry. Here are the Best TV Season Since The Sopranos nominees .

[[WARNING: PLENTY PLENTY TV SPOILERS]]

First notable mention is probably The Newsroom. Quite entertaining, in the way that Aaron Sorkin was interesting. You know, he's good and all, but even President Obama now makes fun of it. It's nice to imagine an alternate universe of liberal conscience.

Some years ago when he did the West Wing it was how politics was run - now it's how the newsroom are being run. There's a lot of truth in there, too. In America, the newsroom took a long considerable breath before making the hard decision. That and lots and lots and lots of money. In other places, much less so. As power got more evenly distributed, a lot more people will rise up for many, many inexplicable reasons. Or maybe seemingly good reasons. Other times, it's just complete madness, choices of fate.

Politics was never to be pretty. Games without frontiers, wars without fears, Peter Gabriel says.

In a parody of itself, HBO also produces Vice - which is really, news. Like, I wouldn't want to imagine what Dr. Gonzo would think about it, but by most definition, Vice is News. I think they also call themselves news. Corporate sponsored and custom tailored for specific delivery. Like sending Dennis Rodman to North Korea and going to the Philippines to see how guns and politics got mixed up in very very ugly way. In ways that normal news don't do. Exactly what the Prez joked about previously, except that it wasn't an Aaron Sorkin fiction world. Bill Maher and Fareed Zakaria were attached to the project.

Speaking of mad causes, there's the Homeland, which was kinda fun but a little crazy. I didn't get how someone so completely determined as the main character, changed his mind on the very last minute. How often do you really get the chance to get in the bunker under the White House with the President? If there ever was really a good timing (in the crazy, twisted, ala Homeland-y way of 'good'), surely that would be it? I kinda stopped watching it after that season, not sure how the story is unfolding now.

A much more entertaining season was the first of the House of Cards. Kevin Spacey was God. Yes, really. I made Verb, my dog, sit thru the whole season and explained to him the basics in the separation of powers. Admittedly, it was getting a little too twisted and unnecessarily complicated after the sixth, episode or so, but the first two hour - with David Fincher directing - was definitely among the best tv episode in recent memory. House of Cards is available from Netflix in complete set, in a way, designed for binge watching.

Speaking of complicated plot, Sons of Anarchy was still my favourite, except that either I'm getting old, or real life is seriously catching up with priorities. I'm finding it harder and harder to keep up with complicated plots on television. Apparently, with some of the new digital distro world, the audience was even offered tools to help with the storyline, Hannibal, an upcoming series has an iPad app of sort. Too weird.

I like my tv to be fun and entertaining and makes me happy and snuggle up on the couch with my best dreams and happy fat dogs and watch dragons.

Game of Thrones is seriously damn near the best television in the history of television. There were just too many great scenes from the series to list here, if you haven't got around to it then you really probably should. Also, Danny got naked more often in the first season.

For those who's missing the subtle politics from the book, it's worth to go and read this - like Westeros Economics 101 - primarily, how the Lannister Subprime Lending Crisis from Slate. The rest about GoT I've peppered enuff on the Westeros boards.

However, if you're going to spend a weekend chilling with dogs or girls or maybe just to chill with half the moon and a host of happy dreams, then I would recommend the first season of The Americans. The setting was the underrated 1980s of KGB sleeper agents in America and the race to build a nuclear arsenal. It doesn't get more real than that and it's more awesome than dragon. Beautifully scripted and very well done. I dare say, much more fun than most stuff I've seen on the big screen in recent days.

Anyhow...

Happy Sunday, you.

on Why

2013-04-28T13:57:00.003+07:00

Not to hammer the point too much, but this article from FP puts it very well,

"It is understandable for Americans to seek answers for the Tsarnaev brothers' motivations for such brutal attacks against innocent civilians and running gun battles with the police. There is a natural curiosity to determine what psychiatric disorder, psychosocial stressors, or personal or political grievances could compel someone to behave so abnormally. In the absence of a preexisting rationale or trigger, the abhorrent violence becomes all the more frightening since it seems both totally random and possible at any moment. Moreover, understanding motivations may provide some sense of closure for victims, victims' families, and the affected communities.

However, trying to answer why the Tsarnaev brothers conducted the Boston Marathon attacks will largely be a futile effort. It is extremely difficult to untangle the multiple motivations that lead someone to become a terrorist, though this does not deter scholars from attempting to do so -- here are 324 such studies through 2008. According to the Washington Post, Dzhokhar Tsarnaev "told interrogators that the American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan motivated him and his brother to carry out the attack." Policymakers and pundits will dismiss this rationalization with little acknowledgment, analysis, or certainly sympathy. Moreover, even if we could agree that we had perfect information for why the attacks happened -- based upon the perpetrators' words, and corroborated with official investigations -- we won't engage in honest self-reflection or change public policy in response."

Full article, What Is the Why Does it really matter what motivated the Boston bombers? by Micah Zenko

on Weapon of Mass Destruction

2013-04-23T12:33:00.002+07:00

Here's a piece of news to ponder for the week:

The sole surviving suspect of Boston Marathon was charged with using a weapon of mass destruction and could now face a death penalty.

Now, don't get me wrong. What he did in Boston was horrible, nothing could justify his choices and he deserves to be dealt with seriously, no question about it.

But Weapon of Mass Destruction? Really? I understand that WMD is a very vague legal term - most likely the one term that's been most abused in the last decade - but this shows just how confused Americans are.

Like, reading and watching about this from halfway around the world, I just don't get the whole American thinking to this.

It's almost like soon as they had the hint of foreign ties, America jump and bend over to believe and prove and insist, that something so horrible cannot possibly be American? Why? Are Americans somewhat held to higher standard of horribility somehow?

Never mind that most Americans didn't even know where Chechnya was. First there was the whole talk about sending the dude to Gitmo, and now he's being charged with Weapons of Mass Destruction.

Like, what about the guy who painted his head orange and blasted into a movie theater? How was his crime more acceptable than this? Or Sandy Hook? Or the Elvis who toyed with Ricin?

It's very strange. I'm very proud of America - really I am. The country has great ideals which most of the world deservingly look up to. For most of us citizens of the third bit world with less than such mythical ideals, America sets an example for the rest of us, for governments all around the planet.

How's Dzokhar Tsarnaev different to any other crazies regularly making appearance on American news? We look up to the American justice system, precisely because the idea was a system that would be capable enough to tackle the challenges of the most civilized (and screwed up) societies. A system that's (supposed to) work, fairly and justly.

Now, didn't you guys invade a country for Weapons of Mass Destruction?

I know this is a very, very touchy subject for many, but really, this is heading into Adrian Mole territory.

on Czech and Chechnya

2013-04-21T04:16:00.003+07:00

The whole Boston thing was just too much, I really shouldn't be saying anything beyond what I had already said on Reddit and whatnot.

Frankly, I think it would help if most Americans got to figure out the difference between Czech and Chechnya before they went on with the news network and twitter and crowdsourcing CSI.

The single most important piece of news this week must be the press statement from the Czech ambassador to the United States, Petr Gandalovic,

As more information on the origin of the alleged perpetrators is coming to light, I am concerned to note in the social media a most unfortunate misunderstanding in this respect. The Czech Republic and Chechnya are two very different entities - the Czech Republic is a Central European country; Chechnya is a part of the Russian Federation.

As the President of the Czech Republic Miloš Zeman noted in his message to President Obama, the Czech Republic is an active and reliable partner of the United States in the fight against terrorism. We are determined to stand side by side with our allies in this respect, there is no doubt about that.

It seems like the whole of United States, President Obama included, was shocked that 'an American' could do something as terrible as the marathon bombs.

Err... as terrible as it was, such horribly evil thing is not exclusively Non-American thing. Americans do horrible things all the time, much like any other people. The cartoon from The Economist this week so succinctly put it.

on Circus Journalism

2013-04-19T06:57:00.001+07:00

Indonesian television is just strange. Strange as in they keep running by their own proprietary standard of journalism with total abandon of even the pretense of check and balance.

Case in point for this morning was the 6.30am news at Metro TV - a local news channel - that featured prominently the released suspect pictures from Boston.

Except that they're not. Not really. Despite the very EXPLICIT and REPEATED request by the FBI to ignore EVERY OTHER pictures floating out there and refer only the pictures from the press conference to help with investigation, MetroTV still features the pictures from the Reddit Thread (Blue Jacket dude, etc., Gugel it for links).

I know... I got back to the city, watch the morning news and annoy myself for the rest of the day.

Have a happy Friday, all,

Not a New Post

2013-04-19T00:03:00.004+07:00

Technically, this isn't even a new post - testing the blogspot - G+ - various different bits of Google mejik at work.

Please just ignore this.

on a Couple of Things

2013-04-18T14:48:00.001+07:00

A few things and we'll try to make it brief, I've a real life to deal with these days...

Cebongan Dept. I need to add a bit here. First, lemme say that I would be the first one to admit that I was wrong. Not a week after my last post, Indonesian Army spokesperson came out and announced they've completed their investigation. Kopassus - an Indonesian elite army unit - assumed the responsibility for the attack and execution of the four people held in Cebongan Prison.

Eleven special forces soldiers attacked the prison in retaliation for the murder of their colleague and another, separate attack some weeks prior on another Kopassus unit. As it was in the more recent cases involving the military, they're at least doing the best they could by promptly identifying the personnel and putting them to military court. (note: to the discrepancy in the witnesses - 30+ of them - who thought they saw at least 17 people in the attack, the military said, "these are spec op units, they made eleven look seventeen.")

However, as I mentioned repeatedly before, this revelation is probably even more disturbing. There were simply far too many more questions, like why these highly trained assassins were running around fighting gang wars in the civilian, urban setting. People in Jogja were badly divided, some where blatantly and openly supporting the military, saying that the drug gangs on the street of Central Java was getting to unbearable level, the Kopassus were merely doing what the police ought to have done and failed miserably. The only way they could win, is by taking the fight to them.

The generic response was predictable and imho, badly misplaced. Beyond Jogja, Police in Jakarta, Medan, Makassar, everywhere were rounding up thugs and street villains - "preman" - in the local parlance. Like, really?

I don't get it. Organized crime doesn't end with the thugs on the streets. Of course, they're always somewhere in the food chain and at some point, their presence could become a practical nuisance but street crimes are merely symptoms of much bigger problems. Rounding up thugs from corners to fight organized crime is like chopping one toe to fight a raging gangrene: it won't help, and if anything, it would only make things worse by ignoring the real problem.

I've written about this several times before - organized crime and the reluctance of Indonesian media to even pretend to recognize it.

In any event, here's A Threat Assessment of Transnational Organized Crime in East Asia and the Paciﬁc, by the UN, just out this week (PDF).

And well, on Preman, its past historical context and contemporary power dynamics, you guys need to see the Act of Killing (Youtube trailer).

Moving on,

Numbers and Zeroes Dept. Jakarta breaks 5000 eggs. How's that for cool? There was no clear driver for this except that Indonesia was generally doing very well in maintaining mediocrity in time of uncertainty. Foreign investment provides the most boost - emerging market being a hot and sexy thing and endless runs of BKPM tv commercials on CNBC Asia probably help - while the rest of the economy was showing real cracks and fatigue: labor dispute in major cities and infrastructure crunch. Export slowing down and growing deficit, the World Bank revised their growth target by 0.1% just some weeks ago.

However, the Indonesian Middle Class remains unhinged, prompted by steady wealth accumulation - matched by growing disparity - they continue to consume and buy things. Auto, property, retail - most of the domestic consumption sector seemed unfazed with bad weather or ugly traffic and lead the economic growth.

The big concern here, at least for me (and most probably also for President SBY), is the Fuel Subsidy. The dilemma is obvious: Cutting Subsidy (eg. increasing retail gasoline price) is HUGELY unpopular. Back when he was just elected, President SBY cut subsidies and he took a toll on his then north of seventy approval rating. These days, the President is hovering at single digit approval, cutting the subsidy now, is a political suicide.

A year ago, when President SBY lost his bid to cut subsidy - because Golkar and most of everybody else sabotaged it in DPR - I made some very loud predictions, namely that it was the beginning of the end. The fact that SBY let his political opponents to so thoroughly defeat him in the single most important economic agenda in Indonesia for the next decade, was just ugly.

Now with the 2013 budget in potential disarray, I tend to think that whatever the Gov't could come up with would be too little too late. The most recent proposal is to remove the subsidy for private cars. Obviously, they would want to do this before Lebaran when consumption exploded and the budget would be completely totally screwed.

The only thing that is different now is that the election is also coming, so if anything, the screwedupness would be limited in damage.

Ah well...

note: The Bomb in Boston, I can't say much of anything now except that I'm very, very sad. I've some good friends in Boston and as far as I know, everyone was okay. Stay up guys.

on a Man and His Words

2013-04-05T02:36:00.002+07:00

Kurt Cobain, (February 20, 1967 – April 5, 1994)

Broke our mirrors
Sunday morning is everyday for all I care
And I'm not scared, light my candles
In a daze 'cause I've found God...
~Lithium from Nevermind.

... for The Man, his words and his madness, exactly nineteen years ago today.

on the Future and the Colonel

2013-04-04T12:21:00.001+07:00

And now the wheels of heaven stop
you feel the devil's riding crop
Get ready for the future:
it is murder
~Leonard Cohen

A number of people now mentioned the last few posts about devils and ghosts and whatnot. I explained why I wrote on the other blog. For the most of it, this blog is supposed to be making sense. These two were started when I had the gmail account in 2004 or so. Most of it is about The Future (the other blog occasionally noted failed romantics too but not nearly as interesting. really.). They're not for anyone to read really, though you're most welcome to, but mostly for my own personal notekeeping.

I'm interested in The Future, the distant one where things are blurry with lots of unknown unknowns - to paraphrase the ever eloquent Mr. Rumsfeld. More often however, also the immediate future, things I would actually live to see and experience.

Along with the glory and excitement that the future brings, there's always going to be disruptions. They say disruptions are necessary for change. For better or worse. A few weeks ago I posted on this subject, disruptions coming our way, circa 2013-2014.

Number two on my list of concerns was militarization of urban societies. It sounds like a very serious jargon (cause it is) but there is no easy way to explain the concept. Just as pirates, rebels and anarchist took up arms to fight the establishments of our ancestors, the unsavory elements of the future will continue to equip themselves with the best available instrument to make things go their way. That's just how things are.

Again, to quote my favorite American Defense Minister, "I would not say that the future is necessarily less predictable than the past. I think the past was not predictable when it started." It is hard to exaggerate the potential carnage men can do just in doing their deeds with improved capabilities.

We've seen how the paramilitaries conduct their wars in Africa, where the militarization happened in fairly straightforward manner with no oversight on arms circulation, guns and military grade weaponry soon escalated tribal tradition to epic tragedies of mankind. In the words of Colonel Kurtz, "Oh the horror."

In 1994, Oliver Stone showed us in vivid, cringe-inducing, crisp technicolor what happened when the culture of camera and circus journalism meet sociopaths and natural born killers. These are two group of people of complete opposite, one seeking truths to record history from the best possible angle, covered in make up and preferably some artificial lights, and while the others get up close and personal to their deeds. The only thing in common was probably the determination to their providence, the commitment to accomplish their goals. Primal, savage and positively vulgar, but ultimately human.

I'm hardly original in observing the phenomenon. Much like any other organism, evil will undoubtedly evolve. They will get better at what they do and almost certainly, more savage. We know these things. Organized Crime of various sorts are very well documented in television programs. Endemic and systemic Corruption in the criminal and judicial system is very well scandalized in various investigation. The rapidly disappearing institutional trust between the government and its people is bringing unrest to places where the elements had most at stake. We do see this on the news.

I been blogging about technology and the future of organized crime pretty much since these blogs were started in 2005. One of my fave story was how the US Gov't and the Military worked with Lucky Luciano in 'counterterrorism' effort. Of course, at the time, the terrorist were Nazi spies in New York harbor.

It happen everywhere else, everywhere in history. In other places I been studying these elements for years, and there were great many efforts being done to understand the future better, and anticipate the threats better. There is absolutely no reason why we would want to think that Indonesia is unique.

on the Devils in the Details

2013-04-03T11:23:00.002+07:00

Ancient Propaganda Poster

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince you he didn't exist
~Charles Baudelaire

Two full news cycle into the story, the whole Cebongan thing was no more clear than it was. The story made headlines here in just about every outlet mostly with two major narratives: a) The military is out of control (once again), a lot of finger pointing here, and b) The government and law enforcement failed to provide security (really? That obvious? Duh).

Two major outlets are worth mentioning. Tempo Magazine had it as cover story for the week, though sadly enough, it's one of the worse investigative piece I've ever read from the same magazine. The magazine (widely available in bookshops, but also all over their website here) insisted on the stubborn narrative, pointing fingers blatantly at the Kopassus - seemingly to base their whole magazine and its cover on the account of one witness, a convict under threats of machine guns at that). Like, really guys?

( -- I mean, really, imagine for a second, for one of the thirty other inmates, trapped in a corner of a jail cell with murderous attackers executing their targets. Given that these inmates were in there with the victims literally before and during their execution, wouldn't it be possible, almost natural even, for them to attempt to improvise in the crudest form of kiss-ass, in this case, yelling the Indonesian Commando Corps? In a tv interview, the wife of the warden who was kidnapped also described the attack as 'similar to G30S night' - referring to the 1965 military/communist coup.

I'm just saying, these things, these scary ghosts of Christmas past are very much real in the psyche of Indonesian population. I would expect respectable journalists from magazine the calibre of Tempo would be somewhat better informed than their reading public. But maybe not. -- )

The Indonesian Lawyers Club on TV One last night also had the story to anchor on. It's a lot more interesting than reading the Tempo report though really was overly lengthy, the talk show had like 400 people many talking at the same time and went on for three hours or more. It's like weekly a town hall session but only for lawyers and politicians cameras, but we all love it anyway.

Last night, a number of retired generals were present as well as the military official spokesperson in full uniform. On the opposite side of the room were Indonesian human rights activist and Human Rights Commission. Between them are camera hungry politicians of various kind. As always, the show was rampant with wild speculation and outrageous theories, and great many more blatant finger pointing.

The NGO corner was blunt and explicit, real classic: Kopassus must've done it because they've done it before - plus they have the motive and the means, obviously. Some politicians also openly took side and aligned with this corner. Like I said, the masters at restating the obvious.

The Military corner fiercely defended their pride and honor. Proudly, in my opinion, but with pathetically weak arguments too. They mainly argued that if it was the Kopassus doing it, they would've done it differently and more efficiently. Several mentioned also that it didn't come with the usual telltale of the military extra curricular mo. This is obvious but there could be too many explanation for that. I sincerely wish Indonesian military generals would take a firmer position on this, they have a very good case to make and certainly enough political will to do it. While the generals are probably great soldiers on the field, this one time, they're way out of their depth in the circus.

As it happened, there was the Police Spokesperson next to his colleague from the military. I'd rather not comment on his comment (really, not making much sense, mostly, nothing at all). When asked point blank about the 7.62 bullet casings and if he knows what unit in the police department used the bullet, he said "they're still investigating it". Frankly, of all the element in this story as it unfolds, even from the very first crime scene the scope and ambition of the police to obscure the facts and elements is staggering and I find most disturbing, if not totally uncommon.

A DPR member from the next table was somewhat more interesting than others, a retired general himself and ranking member of the defense committee, TB Hasanudin listed one by one very clearly and in specific details, the different military and police unit all over Indonesia using the weapons using 7.62 bullets. The man clearly knows his stuff. (For journos having problems with the different types of bullets, I recommend Call of Duty or Jagged Alliance series, both games require basic understanding of major ammo types).

According to the Member, a large majority of personnel equipped with the weaponries, are the police mobile brigade - deployed in all major cities. He estimated there were some 40,000 of those currently in the armory in Central Java alone, the bullets are ordered from the State Owned Pindad in Bandung, ordered in the hundreds of thousands, if not millions.

The grenades were much less common, but in several recent extremist attacks recovered a surprising number of hand grenades already, so they knew it's already out there. Still, these were usually random terrorist cells doing arm robbery on banks and jewelries and not commonly armed in such great number (witnesses put the number of men entering the prison to be 17, all appeared to be well armed, which suggest there would be about 25 people all to cover the perimeter, cars and safe houses)

Personally, I think all of this is moot. I been trying to point this out since the very first day, but two weeks on, it continues to elude and they go on arguing on moot points and it's kinda annoying.

First. The Kopassus - and the Indonesian Military - should back off a little bit and understand that there are very legitimate reason why they are the primary suspect in this particularly shocking episode. They had the motive and the means. The Chief of Staff himself said almost exactly that, reiterated by the Army Chief of Staff and by my gathering, most of the other generals too. But the people being terrorized by the media were also feeling to be greatly under attack and unjustifably so pointed, in their opinion.

The Indonesian Military had done honorable job in trying to reign in discipline and established better and more transparent conduct under civilian setting than they had historically been just a few decades ago. Even as many more other cases involving military officers remained out there, with some of the more recent ones - the motorcycle gang attacks in North Jakarta or the burning down of the Police station in the other place - the military is acting decisively and the military court proceedings are much more accessible to the public and the media. Just ten years ago, nobody even know if there were any court martial or disciplinary actions, much less even about covert or rogue operations as the Indonesian military, like every other military on the planet, have been historically very opaque and the chain of command maintained a vault like discipline to keep information in.

For one, the Military could help by providing the public with better information from the first crime scene, from which point apparently many ranking officers were already alerted to the murder soldier in a pub brawl. Obviously, they were expecting retaliation and according to many generals, they had measures, including locking down the barracks and head counts and the sort. What the public need to know, was what exactly they were expecting then? Did they know that they were dealing with a group of capable of doing this sort of thing, aka, a rogue unit, and so if the military conduct between the first Tuesday and the event on Friday mere measures to contain this event? Or were they expecting other elements outside their military structure and beyond their jurisdiction, thus the measures were more a heightened military alert to keep discipline and the troops in line?

The very first obvious question was if the deceased soldier from the first crime was on active duty the night he was murdered? His Commander said he was assigned an army intel unit, so presumably he could've been working.

The generals are very openly trying to do better, assigning a ranking officer to deal with the press in uniform is a great first step, but they should realize also that it means swimming down in the mud with different kind of gators.

Now, for all my friends and mentors in all around in Indonesian Great Newsrooms, I beg only a very little restraint and consider a very simple preposition,

Is it really entirely beyond the realm of possibility to consider any other suspect other than a rogue Kopassus unit bent on a vengeance?

Tempo reports failed to suggest any other scenario, it barely mentioned the first crime scene from the now almost four weeks old story. TVOne ILC speculates on every probable and some totally outlandish scenario but fail to enlighten the audience and the lesser dressed citizens.

There are many obvious, if disturbing facts to consider. Like the first crime was mostly about drugs. If it wasn't entirely about drugs, then it was most certainly about people who deal in drugs and kill people, a soldier even. Several of them dealt in drugs before and were convicted, others killed people in previous occasions. Very dangerous people. We know this from their criminal records given to the media and their notorious street cred. They were apparently dealing with even more dangerous people as all of them turned up dead.

The Police are not doing any better than they have always been in many large cases. The Indonesian modern day Police Dept. while routinely and very much lovingly embraced the camera culture they also seem be acting instinctively and primarily only to obfuscate facts and discourage the public from difficult question. Like really, a spokesperson can't say the types of weapons used by hundreds of thousands of his officers? That's just silly. The Member from the next table seemed to understand it pretty well and you could see these units on every roadside, banks and malls in Jakarta. I mentioned this two weeks ago. We know you're slow, but not that slow, surely?

It's all very complicated to these people but the media isn't making things any better by engaging and largely entertaining wild speculations. I understand that's what television is all about, but journalistic is entirely and wholly about making the public better informed. If you want to add bells and ribbons and make up to make information entertaining, all the better. But it needs to be informing.

For a simple question, I beg to ask why is it that while the whole spectrum of Indonesian respectable journalistic crowd persistently prodded the KPK, even to suggest a criminal or state secret (!!) - while crime scene photos from this story are widely circulated on Facebook - and yet nobody asked how those became a public property so quick after the event?

As I said, many, many more questions abound. They all lead down deeper down the rabbit hole.

Engaging in wild speculation about very very dangerous people in very public forum leads only to public confusion. That is very much for certain. Confusion potentially lead to discontent and eventually, unrest. That's just how shit happens most naturally. I consider this to be among my biggest worry as a (should be) clear and present danger for Indonesia.

I really wish people come with better television to make better people. Also they go on buying print magazine and read stuff.

Have a good Tuesday, all.

on the Economist, the Politician and the Mad Men

2013-03-30T13:43:00.002+07:00

Hello all, hope everyone is having a good and blessed Easter weekend? Well, have a good one. I promised to write more stuff that makes more sense. Expect more posts during popular religious holiday too.

Here's a quick note on a number of things that caught my attention overnight and worth to share here.

First is the Breaking News: Malthus was wrong. Prices are actually going down over much longer period of time. Of course, many people have long suggested that this might have well been the case, technology being one of the major catalyst in improving/realtering the distribution and therefore availability of industrial commodity, relative to its historical relevance in economics. We have known this a long time from clicking on keyboards and following hyperlinks on wiki but now it seems, real economists are getting to the same conclusions. As the happy world progresses and we know more of the future to make educated comparisons to the past, I expect many more economists to be proven wrong.

North Korea seems ready to go to war, preparing rockets and issuing more threats of imminent attack. There was a US B2 bomber sighted for sheer showing off over South Korean skies, uncharacteristically, the nuclear capable stealth bomber flying in from Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, was made available in a very photo friendly readiness.

I know that this may well sound like an out of the box scenario, but say, in the event of an open war breaking out in the Korean peninsula, what is the likelihood that America will actually get involved with soldiers on the ground (in addition to the US marines already stationed along the DMZ, of course)?

Is there any discussion within the American establishment about a ground war in Asia, the way they they do openly discuss about their political inclination and practicality of combat in another Middle East/African theatre? I read numerous report about naval conflicts all across South China Sea, but not a ground war. Anyone? I'm just genuinely curious about these things.

From the local headlines, Partai Demokrat is holding their emergency session in Bali this weekend. I imagine the atmosphere there to resemble suffocating smell of a sinking ship, no doubt to bring about the worst sorts of rodents and even further delusional aspiration from Indonesia's largest political charter.

Whatever they finally come up with tonight or tomorrow, I doubt it would make much difference, if at all. People there seems to be primarily arguing of whether to return the executive leadership of Demokrat to President Yudhoyono or whether he should instead appoint another figure to unite their fractured confidence. They seem to forget that while Mr. Yudhono is probably capable of putting the lid of things and formalized a new executive order, the Indonesian President is also falling rapidly in his approval rating. The Party Propaganda argued that President SBY was elected with popular majority of some 70%, but that was in 2009, his present day, March 2013 approval rating is most likely in the single digits and traveling in a downward trajectory.

I don't think anything they do in Bali would do anything to stop the house of cards crumbling down. Particularly not in the face of a looming nuclear conflict and global economic readjustment.

Last, on the scary business of dead people in prisons, more comments and links are on this G+ thread. Do click on and to speculate and participate in this public conspiracy.

You all have a great Easter weekend, til later.

on Getting it Wrong

2013-03-28T00:33:00.001+07:00

The screenshot above I took from Tempo web site a few minutes ago. I'm wondering - if they were proven wrong and the case unfolds to be not related to a TNI vs Polri conflict but other motives, you think they would issue a retraction?

Previous notes and more links on this thing here.

further on Cyprus

2013-03-28T00:20:00.001+07:00

Updates on Cyprus: Banks are supposed to be open tomorrow. There will be across the board hit on large depositors but they're not sure who's getting hit how much or even if all the banks received equal treatment.

Maybe the most senior bondholders of the crappiest bank will get it first. Does anyone know which is one the crappiest bank in Cyprus? Maybe some of the lesser crappy bank will get more money, others merely the promise of money? I heard there's a lot of pretend money in Cyprus.

Are these decisions being made in Nicosia where the Cypriots are, or is it in Moscow, where the money eventually was owned? How closely are the Russians in the manicure details of making the selection of what assets are to be reposed or written off entirely? I'm betting President Putin would want a lot of say in it.

Who knows. Bank bailouts and countries collapsing are always exciting.

From Jakarta, the market continues to ride on the good charm of March, recording new highs yesterday. The rest of the world are seriously worried about a North Korean attack (Reuters, from an hour ago).

Happy Thursday and watch the beautiful full moon, all.

on Ghosts of Cebongan

2013-03-26T15:40:00.003+07:00

One can only see what one observes. And one only observes only things which are already in mind

~Alphonse Bertillon

The spectacular prison raid last week caught my attention and set off my usual news filter. It's been making rounds on evening talk shows the last few days and quite some chatter on the internet.

I wrote at a bit on the early reports, four days ago. It was an early speculation and details were lacking then, but four days after the incident, even after rounds of talk shows and tons of internet chatter, little is known and some things got even more confusing. Lacking any substantial development, my guess is that this news will just die down in the next cycle.

No one in the public punditries were willing to even consider the possibility that the attack was perpetrated by people other than the military.

Usman Hamid, a prominent human rights activist, was on TVOne last night and specifically referred to Kopassus - an elite army combat unit. Denny Indrayana, deputy minister of justice, on the same talkshow took a slightly more balanced approach, expecting the public to refrain from speculation and wait for the law enforcement officers to do their job. This Jakarta Globe article also specifically refer to Kopassus. Jakarta Post declared the same.

Granted, this might seems very obvious. The attackers came in large group, likely around 20 or so, armed with military grade equipment. They were highly trained and very well coordinated, indicating scouts, planners, support teams to facilitate getaway etc.

The attackers essentially entered the prison by threatening to blow the gate with hand grenades, disarmed the guards and the CCTV, located the four men they wanted by intimidating the warden, proceeded to break thru into the holding area, identified their targets, separated them from other inmates, made them kneel in a corner and executed the four with shots in close range to the chest. Bizarrely, they made the other inmates clap after the murder. Then they left. Nobody else in the prison complex was killed or seriously wounded. It was in and out in less than 20 minutes.

The four victims were held there pending murder charges. Allegedly, they killed a former Kopassus member (and now with the regional army intelligence unit, news reports varies for his actual unit) the Tuesday before the attack and were arrested by the local police. The police moved the four to the prison for security reasons or something on Friday morning and they were dead by Saturday.

Central Java Regional Commander, a Major General insisted in different statements, crystal clear, that none of the unit under his command was involved, even now deploying a 300 person special anti terror - Gultor unit - to work with the police and hunt down the perpetrator.

Indonesia - and the Kopassus - have a long, tattered history of extra judicial killings in large scale social engineering experiment* so the theory certainly has merit. I guess it's obvious that everyone point their finger at the military - though then we are faced with seriously troubling questions....

Why? What are the motives? The whole thing seems overly elaborate for an esprit de corps retaliation setup. Is this a rogue elite military unit on an extra curricular mission? Or some military sanctioned voodoo against the Government? 11 months before the election? What are their goals? What do they get out of it?

The questions lead down the rabbit hole.

Then again, sober people don't always make sense. Now indulge me a little in another theory:

All four victims had criminal records prior to the murder that brought them to prison. One was an ex police officer, discharged and convicted for narcotics, others had gang ties and violent crime records. Indonesian drug trades are getting to critical mass with substantial international trade and regional consumption beyond the major population center of Jakarta and Medan and Surabaya and into the smaller towns. The tens of millions of USD - billions in Indonesian Rupiah - in the regional-provincial narcotics trade and institutionalized corruption of local authorities made for harmony in the market. But also lucrative enough to incentivize and motivate even more extra curricular activities and devious adventures. More here.

Indonesian National Police have made drugs a priority and they are very well versed and competent in the area. Various units are equipped with arms and trainings, at least as good as their military cousins if not better adjusted to the urban setting. Additionally, there are also a number of private security contractors with some sort of special licenses allowing them to operate with military grade weaponries - assault rifles and vests and stuff, we see them near banks and ATMs and big hotels in Jakarta every day.

Like really, is there any possibility at all that the attack was not a sinister political conspiracy but rather, more simply, a vulgar and brutal assault on law and order, right at the heart of the Indonesian criminal justice system, brought about by much more primal motive, like greed, for example?

Just a thought, I'm genuinely curious.

* - some years ago Central Java had ninjas and shamans roaming the villagehood murdering people. These types of things do happen in Indonesia.

You all have a great Tuesday

WEDNESDAY UPDATE: Finally, someone begins to make sense, Dr. Andi Wijayanto, a military observer, said specifically that most likely the perpetrators are some kind of ex-military/police/security - with drugs and organized element - the phrase he used was "criminal syndicate". Too bad so far I can't find an online quote for the statement. Will update links later.

NOTE: Not entirely sure why Google can't combine blog comment on G+ but here's the G+ thread for this piece with further discussions and various other things. Feel free to comment.

on Cyprus

2013-03-25T13:50:00.000+07:00

Due to the Bet*

...and because I don't feel like doing it on chats and putting it anywhere else only to have things changing before I was done, I'm gonna blog Cyprus here as necessary.

Is Cyprus going to default?
Nope. That is to say that the Sovereign State will get the money they need. How much they really need and where they're going to get it from however, is a whole different problem. Also, how badly they're needing it.

How?
I don't know. I don't think anybody really knows at this point.

What do we know?
We do know President Putin managed to unravel completely a full week of European leadership agenda by doing very little at all. He just didn't like it. He made Cyprus Minister fly to Moscow and most probably made him wait long and horrible time.

What do we know about the money?
Cyprus get the 10bn they asked for last week, without the 5.8bn required rebate from bank depositors levy. We know that they won't take money from the small depositors. We know the larger accounts mostly belong to the Russians. Obviously, Mr. Putin wants a say in getting to decide on who is getting a hit and who isn't. Otherwise there is just no reason to make the poor Cypriot wait long and horrible time.

Needless to say, soon as Cypriot banks failed to open last Wednesday, it was clear that the number was no longer on the table. You cannot do these kind of deal and hold them for too long. At this point - Cyprus banks is still not open (and they are talking about capital control) - nobody, not even the bankers themselves and their magnificent number crunching system, know how much money is actually there in Cyprus at the moment.

You have to wait for the bank to open to find out.

What is clear though, from now on, this is a parenting problem, Europe and Russia got joint custody of Cyprus. It's political, and probably more economical, but really, nothing personal.

How does it affect you?
Depends on who you are but I wouldn't say it's going to matter much.

*I'm writing on Cyprus because a) The prospect of Sovereign Bankruptcy is a fascinating case study and b) There is an ongoing bet and incoherent babble in a chatroom specific on how it would affect people and companies in super high end property portfolio and private wealth management portfolio. I cannot post the whole room but part of the bet is that I claim this somewhere for future record.

So what's going to happen?
Specifically on Cyprus, some banks will probably default altogether. The bankers and ministers will be made to wait long and horrible time. However, the Russians have proud tradition with these things and making cuts efficiently and undoubtedly, effectively. Prez Putin specifically, is at least as savvy as one could expect with these sort of things.

It takes centuries for empires to adjust their books. These types of things will happen only more often as empires crumble.

on Monday

2013-03-25T12:21:00.000+07:00

So it's Monday.

Source: en.wikipedia.org viaTreespotter on Pinterest

In Jakarta. They said there's going to be a coup or take over or something. Nothing happens. At best Jakarta will get the usual traffic jam.

To be frank, this is precisely my issue with this types Indonesian domestic revolutionaries. The go so far out of the field they make themselves a joke, which is probably okay, like the tea party or something. But when they become a nuisance and make traffic worse, I get annoyed.

Why would you want to bring down a dysfunctional government twelve month before the election? Making it even worse is the Indonesian news television where they seem to really get off on circus journalism.

When the time comes, President Yudhoyono will hold the distinction of the Indonesian President who wrecked himself and his regime all so completely and thoroughly by himself. He might even write songs about it. Watch my words.

In Cyprus. They said there was going to be a breakout, but there isn't. The creditors balked and gave the Cypriots what they needed. Almost, I think. The Europeans have a history with this sort of things too. The flair for drama.

In Europe. Not quite this weekend, but coming very soon, the vote to watch is if Scotland wanted a divorce from the United Kingdom. The Scots also have a history with this sort of things.

In America, 2016 comes even earlier. Hillary Clinton announced her campaign. Finally. Not that it's any surprise I guess. In other places they call this the succession race.

In My Head. Not much. Like most other weekend, I went through it hoping for things that didn't. Not really that much different to the rest of the world. Can't blame the world for wanting.

Anyhow, I don't think the world will pop anytime soon, the cracks are showing. Always a good time to be traveling and see how much things changed or how much stays the same.

Have all a good Monday.

The Rise of the Fringe Republic

2013-03-24T00:12:00.003+07:00

I realized this is a weekend and not everyone is up for hard news but I can't resist. There's been Meteors and stuff.

Earlier this morning there was a bright light in the sky across the East Coast of United States that was most likely a meteor. This is after the one that actually crashed in Russia a few weeks ago.

I have always been extremely concerned about Freak Weather (not least because I once lost a big fat German car in a flash flood a few years ago) but to be frank, I wasn't really concerned about meteors and extra terrestrial objects. Now I am.

I asked what the Council thought of this, Master Plumber said that it's supposed to happen every 5000 years due to some interplanetary spiral around a blackhole. He told me to Google it and I am doing my best to locate the said Discovery episode.

It occurred to me that Modern Men worry too much. In the old days, citizens of the world would get to their knee, pray for mercies, chant apologies and declare a public holiday for at least a week. Individually, I guess we call it an introspect. In the wilder masses, this process of infinite regress was probably most responsible in inventing religions.

The other piece of news was no less worrying and somewhat much more immediate to us around here.
Let me say that this is currently unfolding and I'm getting only bits and pieces everywhere. Most of them are based on reports by local press organizations with many details still lacking verification. I'm also not very brighteyed and focused, but I still think it's very curious and worth a mention.

Here we go...

Late last night, a group of masked men broke into and took over a prison in Central Java and executed four prisoners. The group arrived in multiple vehicles, most of them had their faces covered and body armors, armed with assault rifles, automatic weapons, pistols and hand grenades.

The grenade got them past the front gate, where the group proceeded into the warden's office and disarmed all the guards. Cellular phones and the CCTV cameras were disabled within minutes as the group continued on to demand access to four prisoners being held in a special quarter of the prison complex.

The four men were being held pending court for the murder of an army - ex spec op member - during a pub fight a few nights ago. The night visitors quickly identified and located all four and executed them in front of the other inmates from close range with shots to the chest. The group left immediately, the whole thing took less than half an hour. This Kompas report quoted an attorney for the victims claimed that one of his client was an ex police officer, apparently discharged with suspect drug related activities, all hailed from NTT, Eastern Indonesia.

Of course, it's hard to overlook the classic simmering tension between the military and their police cousins with the notional ethnic tension, as it had always been over the years in traditional Indonesian power play. There was an attack on a police station not too long ago, a soldier was killed by a police officer in a traffic dispute and after waiting for months of inaction, their camerades took it on to burn the station down.

To their credit, the Military was quick to restore confidence by fast tracking the court martial. The Army Chief of Staff ordered the proceedings to be made open to the public. It probably helps he is also a likely presidential candidate for next year open election and thus somewhat inclined to be more sensitive to the public sentiment.

The Police is much less reassuring. Glancing the local headlines, it's rather obvious that the Indonesian National police is too preoccupied in a dysfunctional paralysis after seasons of corruption at the highest levels. Along with the political scandals unravelling all over the executive branch it is silly to assume that this was an isolated incident. In fact, the Minister of Justice pointed out that this was the first time such an incident happened in Indonesia.

Appearing rather obviously upset, the Regional Military Commander, a Major General was on the live evening news, ruling out completely and absolutely the suggestion that any of the units under his command was involved in the prison attack, even going overboard with the revelation that he was deploying all the manpower available to hunt down the perpetrators. (UPDATE: additional reports clarified that the Army is deploying some 300 men from the special anti terror unit to work alongside their police colleagues).

The Major General said that the military presently refers to the group as Unidentified Men. He suggested that the attack was an extension to a conflict between two criminal gangs currently operating in Central Java. I dare say that the Military Man looked quite convincing and he was most probably right too. A PPP DPR Rep who was also on telly, demanded the Major General to resign if he was to be proven wrong.

I think it is wrong and foolish to assume that the military are the only ones with access to assault rifles.
Not too sound too outlandish, but this was exactly the sort of stunt that the Mexican cartels started with in the beginning. Indulge me to take the long way around to put some things from this weekend in perspective.

In the early 90s, the American War on Drugs in South America had been going on for almost two decades, making the logistics of smuggling narcotics from the Peruvian highlands through the Gulf of Mexico less and less economically viable.

The Columbian cartels were supplying more or less all of cocaine and marijuana in in the US. The supply chain involved tons of cargo, split over merchants and shipment across a fleet of aircrafts, fast boats, submarines, donkeys, mules and buccaneers. There was so much demand for their products, various operations worked together, deleveraging their risk by extending insurance to their partners in arms, facilitating the international imperial ambition to the successors of Pablo Escobar and Alberto Sicilia Falcon. Obviously, this was why they were called Cartel in the first place.

The Columbian War on Drugs disrupted the supply chain, rerouting the trade through Central America, from Panama to Mexico, across the border and onto the hands of American consumers. The amount of money changing hands thru the US Mexican borders in the illicit trade was reaching a point that gave most leverage to people best positioned to this wealth explosion. And a whole new pedigree of the greed monster.

Within few short years, corruption rotted out Mexican criminal justice system prompting then President Calderone disbanded various law enforcement bodies after wholesale corruptions and systematic collapse of the criminal justice system. Calderone dispatched Mexican military to fight the cartels escalating the conflict from a law enforcement matter to war like proportion. This BBC report puts the body count at 60,000 deaths in the five years since 2006.

True to form, the criminal organization rapidly evolved into an altogether different beast. Billions of dollars from the most lucrative world trade was an incentive and and a cause all in itself. World, meet the Los Zetas. Originally a Mexican elite force unit, trained and funded by the United States, the Zetas introduced a whole new level of violence - beheading and public execution are quite popular - but also elevated organization and management skills.

Now, a Wise Council suggested that these were rather common, particularly in South America. Paramilitary organizations had long been part of the underworld trade by mating with their radical political cousins. The FARC was a political paramilitary organization with drug and arm smuggling enterprises matching the benefits of sovereign state in the Columbian rurals for decades though eventually the drug barons were too large for South America and went multinationals. From the FARC to the Real IRA, there was a decades-old network of arm smuggling for the revolutionaries in jungles all over the world, from Peru to Congo, from Cuba to Libya. The ancient domain of the La Cosa Nostra and Hells Angels and Russian Death Merchants. It was the generational equivalent of Bin Laden and Carlos the Jackal with ghost of Che Guevara.

Next generation criminal syndicates - Los Zetas is just one example - are prone to economic pressure and dynamics of globalization very much like other private enterprises in the legitimate trade. Multinational corporations approached crisis by cutting expenses and improving efficiencies. For Criminal Enterprises, bribes of various sorts have always been the largest single variable cost.

Taking the term cutback quite literally, Los Zetas proposed that death is cheaper than paying the price and acted as such. Only about 50% of their revenue is from drugs, the group earned the rest of their business via other services rendered to other criminal organizations: kidnapping, extortion, smuggling, security, everything where opportunity presents itself.

Los Zetas also introduced efficiency in other forms, building and operating their own communication network and recently, even buying a coal mine but most of their competitive advantage comes from their ruthless approach to eliminating competition and cost in the most brutal manner. The tactics also affect demand for arms and arsenals of various other competing criminal organization fighting for market share. One side of the border have the drugs to keep them off their rockers, the other side have enough guns and all the money in the world to pay for it.

Extreme violence and cutting expenses aside, there is always the cost of managing and collecting the profit and benefit of this trade. According to the Rolling Stone, HSBC was the preferred international banker of these enterprises, which isn't really surprising. HSBC was at least partly founded on the ancient opium trade from the last century. The beginning of globalization itself, right after the VOC and the East Indie Company and the other early colonial adventures. Fight for rare resources in remote places always motivate the most determined kind of people, more heart of darkness than Indiana Jones.

The diamond for arms trade in Africa is a fresh reminder of how ugly it was when things spin too far out of control. Not entirely incidental, the blood diamond era was also the golden days of Viktor Bout and his international criminal enterprise.

Modern transnational criminal syndicates are trading in the billions of dollars, very much like the worlds largest private - and indeed, sovereign - corporations. Los Zetas makes between three to sex billion USD though it was hard to make accurate estimates of their accounting. Though exceptional, they are by no means unique. Criminals have proven to be very adept and resilient in managing to survive under almost any evolutionary pressure in human history. They proved to be the most effective in seizing economic opportunities to even out everything that was wrong with the economist's prescription. They particularly thrive in places with substantial informal economy and subpar wealth distribution, often taking most advantage of the economic disparity.

From Der Spiegel last week, a German intelligence report warned the government that an EU funded bailout for the Cyprus banking system would benefit questionable parties. Whole third of Cypriot banking system was tied to Russian financiers and dodgy organization, seven times the size of GDP of the EU island nation. To put it in perspective, if the US was to have a banking system like Cyprus, there would be 45 JPMorganChase. This is also happening this very weekend, with deadline looming Monday morning. Here's a good guide on to keep up with Cyprus and I'm likely to write more about it as events unfold, but it illustrates how this is a real and present threat to the world's fragile economy. I'm thinking of some sort of Sovereign Corporate State creature is taking shape.

Digging even deeper into ancient banking trade craft, there's the also-now unfolding story on the Vatican Bank, directly managing accounts for known mafia figures and politicians. The IOC provides clearinghouse like services for the millions in graft, bribes, money laundering and other egregious banking practices of the Italian political and criminal justice system. They probably had been doing this for centuries but debit and credit card purchases for the Vatican was shut down in early January 2013. Here's another QnA with the director of the Vatican's Financial Information Authority by the Germans. Much like every other new leader in modern world, the pressure is on the new Pope Francis to put his house in order and introduced a banking and economic reform. Probably.

Back to the distant parallel of last night attack of the prison in Central Java, I think it's wrong to take it as an isolated incident. Scandalous corruption, huge money laundering operation, shady business practices, record level cargo of narcotics and savage conflicts with no apparent motives nor explanation - these pretty much summed up the whole life cycle of Indonesian mainstream press of the last few years.

There is shockingly no discussion about organized crime even in the most conventional definition. When it comes to real an apparent threat, even President Yudhoyono seems to be stuck in that outfashioned paranoia - he makes the cover of Tempo magazine last week for his outdatedness. I think the editors are running out of things to say about the regime.

While Mexico is probably an extreme illustration, I would add that by nature, these things evolve faster than we could stop and watch them for political pondering and television punditries. In some cases, the underground economy fueled growth and delivered on their economic potentials, if not to mention their cultural and social extension. Beyond guns and narcotics, just as Hollywood and Silicon Valley gave America its economic bonus, the world beyond the Atlantic have their Bollywood Stars and Pirate Smugglers. From DVDs to smartphones, the reach and scale of this economy and its impact in wealth creation in the third world countries was easy to misunderstood.

For Indonesia in particular, the informal trade powers the most of its economy - tax collection is less than twenty percent, I think. In turn, bribery fuels its politics and greased the city with all abandon to common reason or decency. Unlike China, where the leadership now sets their eyes on domestic growth after spending outrageously on infrastructure with clear eyed long term vision, Post-Reform Indonesian Government subsequently and consistently committed to bare minimum level of public spending, choosing instead to design the future of the great nation on their good looks and natural selection.

In the last four years of President Yudhoyono's second term, the compound problems are showing dangerous cracks. The economy is slowing down, export is slowing even faster, inflation is at two year highs and trending up. Indonesia is now getting into budget deficit with Rupiah in three years low. There is a very real and immediate energy crisis with fuel subsidies embedded so deep in the budget, masking the true scale of the problems in the machineries.

Food crisis was once unthinkable for Indonesians of the previous generation. Modern day Indonesians, all 240 millions across thousands of islands now have to deal with price volatility, inadequate health services and very ugly weather.

The Government is quick to point out that Indonesia had massive resources, somehow implicitly suggesting that even if today's condition is pressing, Indonesia could always tap into its natural resources as the last resort. The government currently runs ads on international network citing the said abundant natural resources. Admittedly, the last decade saw trade and exploitation of Indonesian valuable commodities and resources in sheer scale and excitement not seen since the days of the VOC and Industrial Revolution in Europe a few centuries back.

Despite the abject stubbornness on subsidizing fossil fuel, Indonesia lacks stable future reserves and is a net importer of oil. Indonesian Ministry of Energy boasted a plan for transitioning Indonesia to gas energy, they're opening 11 LNG gas pumps in the coming year. I'm not sure where he got the maths, but eleven is hardly convincing even for the need of Jakarta alone, never mind for a national program. He also neglected to mention that Indonesia will be a net natural gas importer very soon. That is more or less next year.

Indonesia have tons of gas hidden here and there but being islands all over and no pipes and plumbing and stuff, excitedly comparing the economic viability of Indonesian gas reserve to fracked out shale gas in the continental US of A is also not realistic.

Other places in the commodity trades showed no more encouraging signs, from moon like open pit mine to planet scale deforestation. Sadly, even as the country is large and abundant, there is probably much less in there left than we thought.

In fact, almost the whole post-reform, post economic crisis Indonesian politics was framed after this factually inaccurate statement. The Government runs their platform on this lofty and hopeful platform and the opposition of every kind contributed to this erroneous argument. Strangely enough, Indonesian newsrooms have yet have to figure this out, mostly choosing to follow the faulty logic of not looking beyond the wall directly ahead of us.

During a short Council meeting yesterday, Mama Aie said that most people don't even realize that they're now connected to the internet, I said that it really is not that surprising. I wrote about this exactly three years ago. The future is coming much faster than we realized, most of us are content with being plugged and pampered into the Matrix. Easier not knowing what we don't know.

Each event is unique to their place in history. Occasionally collision in the environ gives birth to extraordinary events and altered the course of its immediate future. Jules called it Freak Occurrence. Disruption comes in many colours. It is wrong to assume because things happen in other places it wouldn't happen where you are.

PS: Have a good weekend, you.

on Satan, Cyprus and Subsidies

2013-03-20T13:35:00.000+07:00

See....

Short updates, things are getting interesting...

on Cyprus. Predictably enough, Cypriot Parliament rejected the bailout plan. Apparently, the proposal in the parliament was tuned down from the 100k Euro and yet still it didn't pass. As always with these international bailouts, there's always the matter of national pride and sovereign issues, making the economics that much more complicated than simple numbers.

The banks and the market are still closed in Cyprus though now it's unclear whether they would be able to open tomorrow. UK sends a plane-load of cash to the island nation already to make sure British soldiers have enough money.

Since the required fund is relatively small - 10bn, provided that Cypriots came up with an additional 5.8bn, or some 16bn in total - I discussed the idea of a private bailout with a friend the other day. Like maybe we should put together a plan and bail the lovely island nation. It could potentially make a good launch pad for any worthy World Domination Plan.

Obviously, some Russians had already thought of this. According to this Reuters report, Gazprom and its affiliated entities are quietly presenting their alternatives to the Cypriots. Of course, these are Putin's closest buddies, the private, shadier arm of The Power That Be in 2013 Russia.

Soon enough, one of these private corporations and their global billionaires will figure out that it is cheaper to buy their own sovereign state rather than trying to cure dysfunctional government and corrupt politicians. Some sort of Sovereign Corporate State.

My thinking is, that it won't be too far out in the future. For another, more illustrious reference, here's an interview with the Boss of the Vatican Bank. Maybe I should setup a religion. Or a cult.

on President SBY. The Indonesian President confirmed to the press that his government won't raise fuel price, in other words, keeping the fuel subsidy more or less intact. The gov't been mulling over this for a while, though I had never, ever, believed that he could ever manage to reduce Indonesia's stupendous dependence on fuel subsidy. When the Prez and his Gov't failed and was embarrassed rather spectacularly in trying to propose a fuel increase in last year budget, I think his fate was pretty much sealed.

The reason for this is very much political, rather than economics. President Yudhoyono was elected on popular vote, he managed to jiggle a bit the subsidy - Indonesia's single largest budget item - earlier in his term but after rows and rows of scandals hitting his government and single digit approval rating these days, introducing a price hike now would be akin to a political harakiri.

Why is this important? Well, it kinda is. The fuel subsidy - and its associated policy component, energy, etc. - is acting like a market force for all sorts of bad things. To name one, Jakarta traffic is already said to cost the country half a percentage point and experts are worried about complete traffic paralysis if the problem isn't sorted out soon enough. Now, the new Gov'nor have come up with a number of ideas, but fundamentally, Jakarta simply needs upgraded public infrastructure. Except that building mass transport system is not cheap. It goes against all common sense to pretend for any other alternatives while the millions of twittering middle class sit in their car burning government sponsored fossil fuel.

Everywhere else, the signs aren't exactly encouraging. World Bank issued a report earlier this week, cautioning increased risk and revising growth target down to 6.2% from 6.3% (Gov't own estimates are somewhat more loftier beginning at 6.3% in the bottom range). The report mentioned 20 month high inflation in March already. Traditionally, inflation will only get higher until the mid year Ramadhan, along with big increase in fuel consumption during the holiday travel. Since Ramadan will be somewhere in July this year, the Government don't really have much room to introduce any significant change until they're kicked out of the palace in 2014. (YES, they will lose and they will lose miserably. I'm willing to place a bet on this, leave a comment to chip in). Additionally, WB also pointed out less than expected investment, growing account deficit, slowing production and export capacity and all sorts of other bad things.

In any event, forget Fuel Price. Most current local outrage is over massive spike in price of garlic and shallots. This is following a beef crisis a while ago, and chili before that, and sugar, and salt, and soy beans, and well, other things before that. All of these are proven to be systemic problem, directly resulting from bad policies and mishandling, if not outright shenanigans and incompetencies on behalf of our big fat president and his thieving cabinet (a number of them already in jail, well to be on record for the most corrupt government in Indonesia, ever).

As an aside, after my comment last week about President SBY's likelihood to be charged and implicated in some one thing or another after leaving his presidency next year, the Jakarta Post has an article on the subject. I'm not the only one thinking that, it seems.

Moving on...

on Satan. US TV Series, "The Bible" cast an Obama look-alike as Satan. How's that for entertainment?

on Mr. Bump, Cyprus and Ibas

2013-03-19T14:13:00.001+07:00

Mr. Bump sits on my desk

The internet connection have been very funky where I am and so there was a delay from where I wrote this post to when I actually post it.

Not that I really have anything important to post, except maybe a few things from recent days news that I'd like to note:

On Cyprus. I'm just generally fond of bailouts. That is to say that I don't really believe bailouts in almost any form so I watch any such news with fondness. Government is not in the business of bailing out private enterprises, whatever the case may be, period.

Cyprus bailout is kinda curious because they're talking about direct cut to depositors savings - supposedly compensated by the bank's share. I'm not sure if this was done anywhere else before but this time around it sparks debate on everything from moral hazard to Russian mafia. This Spiegel article has German intelligence report on funny Russian money in Cyprus.

On Ibas. This is not a subject for its own post but it's worth noting that reports of President SBY's son and heir apparent might likely be implicated in various thieveries and debaucheries along with his other party colleagues - already in jail. I recall talking to a dear friend ages ago, she had always insisted that SBY cheated the second time around. She was most probably right.

Off to lunch now.

on Gold and Other Things

2013-03-08T12:36:00.001+07:00

Several notable additions to the events this week...

stolen from a BI report on North Korea

North Korea threatened to launch a preemptive nuclear attack against the United States. The South retorted back that in the event of a cross border attack, they would return fire as well as target North Korea 'command structure'. I guess Dennis Rodman really isn't going to win the Nobel Peace Prize anytime soon.

In Washington DC, the CIA has a new Boss. There was a dramatic 13 hour filibuster on the senate floor where Sen. Rand Paul hounded on the subject. They still confirm him anyway. At heart is Section 1867 of the 2012 NDAA, declaring the United States a war zone, by the same executive powers that allowed President Bush to declare his War on Terror and Obama inherited in his first term.

Not only the war is now being extended indefinitely (albeit with budget cuts), US Government is now taking those executive war powers within the US border, on US citizens. You could only imagine the outrage. For a global citizen and a possible drone target, I would give my vote to the US Sen. Rand Paul. One Senator stood on his feet for 13 hours to protest. His colleagues confirmed John O. Brennan as CIA Director, almost immediately after he sat down.

Hugo Chavez died, millions of people are mourning and he's going to be embalmed for immortality. I heard something a few weeks ago, as he was still in Cuba but failing badly to find any specific evidence to support the theory so far. But it is an interesting one...

August last year, Chavez ordered repatriation of Venezuelan gold reserve back from the US and European vault. That's some 211 tons of gold, almost half physically stored in the vaults of the Bank of England. There were many speculation as to what Chavez was trying to accomplish and how it would affect Venezuelan economy, though really I was more curious in how they were going to move 160 tons of gold across the Atlantic.

Whatever the motive, the impact on gold trade was almost immediate and price hit record highs. A few weeks ago, Venezuela received the last shipment of their bullion and the gold price sobered down. And everyone makes more money. And Chavez died. I still don't quite get how the world financial system works.

In the 1890s US, the US was also on the verge of very severe crisis. At some point, the US Treasury had only $9m in gold coin reserves and President Cleveland had to turn to his friends, Pierpont Morgan in the US and the Rothschilds in Europe, to sell US Government bond overseas. According to the Power of Gold (Peter L. Bernstein), at the time it was worth US $65m, almost one hundred tons in physical gold.

"Redemption money and interest-bearing bonds are the curse of civilization. We are paying tribute to the Rothchilds of England, who are but the agent of the Jews." --Mary Elizabeth Lease, a Populist speaker, as reported by The New York Times on August 11, 1896.

Anyhow, so the Too Big to Fail Banks are now bigger than ever, and as Rolling Stone reports in this excellent story, they're also too big to jail.

The US Government is saying they could extend the war and fly drones to kill US citizen on US soil, or at the very least, on its borders, against anyone they so wishes. But they can't put bankers in jail. The British even balked at putting a bonus cap on how much money they could get away with these 21st century sorcery.

on March Tuesday

2013-03-06T11:12:00.001+07:00

Some interesting thoughts after the post below, though I got noticeably fewer amount of random comment. Perhaps because now I quit twitter? Anyhow, explanation will have to come at some other time.

I'm thinking about expanding on the bits about technology though maybe not too much. Someone pointed out that I was probably overly optimistic in projecting technology as the motor for growth. He may well be right, but I am convinced (and so was he) that without technology, Indonesia would not get anywhere near its potential for growth, or self sufficiency for that matter.

On affecting social change, likewise, several people cautioned me of being an overly passionate believer. Perhaps. Still, it takes a lot more than sheer will of the people to move the whole Nation towards a betterness. Technology will not only force change but also to help them to remember better. Machines don't forget.

Moving on.

Conflict in Sabah is taking an alarming tone, it's going from a Malaysian Police operation against 200 Armed Filipino from the Sultanate of Sulu just before the weekend, to a full blown airstrike and military assault on Monday.

Just the other week over emails I proposed a bet to a few friends on the likelihood of an armed conflict breaking up in the region. I think airstrikes well qualify as 'armed conflict' - you think?

Meanwhile, the stock markets reached new highs and party preps commenced everywhere. Gun sales in the US is also at record high, calling for even more parties. And Mercedez builds a six wheel drive.

Have a good Tuesday, all

Disruption, 2013

2013-02-28T04:29:00.001+07:00

I haven’t been updating these pages for a while and will make excuses later. For now, here’s a short rewrite on a 2013 report I posted elsewhere, with updated bits to the current date of February, 2013 and context for Indonesia.

Generally, these are trends and events happening all over the planet during the last few years and how they could realistically affect me, my blog and my readers in the Year of the Snake, in no particular order.

Some of them are directly related to advancement of technology and the evolution of the human species while others like Freak Weather, are problems of different kind. Let us begin.

Government and Stuff.

Government everywhere will continue to face unprecedented challenges. In America, Planet Earth’s most powerful government failed to put together a budget for a few years now. When the Leader of the Free World is running on budget extension, the rest of the world won’t fare that much better.

Whatever virtues that traditional republic held in the last few thousand years, arguments for nation state as social structure is now breaking down in many places, often dangerously flirting with violent conflicts or armed revolt. Or at least threats of big guns. From Egypt to Indonesia, the status quos seemingly face different problems but are suffering to similar dysfunctions.

Specifically for Indonesia it would be interesting to see how the country rolls forward toward 2014 Presidential and Legislative election with the credibility of its political systems in complete tatters. President SBY’s currently governing coalition is likely only to go thru deeper fractures as the court proceedings on the party bosses go to court. The country have a keen taste for political scandals and 2013 promises a lot more to come.

While nothing is certain of the political landscape, being in prison or on their way to prison proved to be instrumental in creating incentives for shame. After years of proscratinating over various scandals, President Yudhoyono finally seized over control of his ruling Partai Demokrat from the fugitive treasurer and the suspect chairman and the rest of their crew (he put himself in charge and readied his son for the inevitable).

The Prez approval rating now hovers at single digit and I expect the party to disappear in oblivion, if not in prison by the election in 2018. How and if this would affect the process of governing and electing new leadership in 2014 is a challenge the country must figure out relatively soon, but in all likelihood, Jakarta should not do much worse than say, Wisconsin.

Militarization of Urban Societies

The business of coining new phrases and names for things should be left to real journalists and scientists but it accurately reflect a prominent and alarming trend in urban societies everywhere. Even Jakarta.

In the developed world – particularly in America, the term was used to explain the introduction of guns and gadgetries that were normally only made available to military organizations. This post investigates if the AR 15 is as popular as the iPod. Drones are an obvious area of concern.

In the less developed world, militias were formed the way it had always been formed in the last few hundred years: by aspiring warlords with limited geographical outlay. South of the border of the United States, the Mexican cartels armed themselves with special force grade arsenals and easily handicapped Mexican police force. Previous government effectively transferred cartel related law enforcement to the military and for a while curtailed the violence but it did not fix the problem of endemic violent and systematic corruption.

In the nook and crannies of Asia and Africa, estranged caliphs and disgruntled mentors coaxed little boys into firing guns to began their guerrilla against the brave new world; and all the disruption that came with it. For the developed world - the US - this article illustrates very clear what's in store.

In the islands of Indonesia, all sorts of electable fiefdoms and tribal chiefs had already began the landgrab and systematic banditries ages ago, more or less along with the arrival of Mr. SBY’s national government. It ran on the campaign against corruption – with all four star officials of the now vintage campaign ad in prison or en route. Some 70% or so officials in this rampage was involved in thieveries, graft, bribes and corruption. Everyone from the local mosque, to party bosses to the countries drug lords maintain their own flash mob to intimidate the judicial process and bully the system. As Mexico shows - or India where 80%+ of the legislatives were involved in violent crimes, murder and gang rape - Indonesia is hardly the worst but it would be wise to pay attention to things like international trafficking and well funded transnational criminal influence, as well as local separatists and militias.

Curiously, this progress still yields a somewhat distorted but workable dispute resolution model that earned Indonesia an investment grade status (meaning more money to grease the whole mechanics), presumably good until at least the country appoint new leaderships in 2014.

Bigger problems loom however. Even when democracy was not delivering the result, so long as the process was managed to maintain some degree of dignity and allow for next cycle of the evolution, it usually worked out fine. At the minimum this usually require some semblance to law and order.

The problems that came with social disparity and separatist conflicts in the islands are separate matters that come with different but all equally potentially devastating scenarios. If violent gangs riots and public lynching was not already dangerous enough, gender crimes as well as flagrant abuse of common sense (kidnapping and human trafficking, as well as narco organizations and other transnational crimes) could easily shortened the fuse much earlier. The risk towards total urban breakdown or escalation of class violence is particularly likely.

The inability of Indonesian Police Force to even pretend like they were attempting to uphold any laws is tragic. In many vulgar and frequent fragrant abuses, the law enforcement as well as the executive branch were directly complicit and parties to the very abuses they were expected to prevent. As they say, hypocrisy knows now bounds, but we will survive.

Technology

Technology will remain the agent of change. Specifically for Indonesia, it will continue to be the single best thing about impending disruptions.

In the national economy, the Indonesian consumers – world’s newest and laziest middle class – will continue to build and spend their wealth like bad things never happened. Indonesians have notoriously short attention span and technology will help them remember better.

The Middle Class, of course, would want everything from Starbucks latte to McBurgers. They also need an IP address and a Facebook account. Banks, telcos, insurance, television, marketers, everyone in between down to the latest supermarket chain are realizing that it's only sensible to have tools to navigate the gridlock of Jakarta.

There are more people with cell phones than there are with bank accounts. By the statisticians count, 60% of the country now belong to the middle class. There are 100 million almost smart phones in use. Minimum wage in Jakarta is 200USD. The education system used different maths to the rest of the world.

As it is with the rest of the country, the infrastructure to assume the growth potential was nowhere near reality in 2012. In fact, it was not even a conviction: past few years of governing very hard resulted to some 70% realization of the Government’s own budget.

Yes, that is behind in by their very own metrics and not even because a third bit country doesn’t have enough money. Jakarta has great many selection of sophisticated over the air products – everything from latest 3G gadgetries, blackmarket iPads, iTunes gift card and Korean game vouchers – but everyone would agree that it is impossible to even try to hold a five minutes conversation on the phone. I stopped taking almost all phone calls about a year go. Remco has a good post here.

However, for these reasons precisely, I expect that technology will continue to drive change. Technology will allow better social infrastructure and more efficient distribution system to meet at least the minimum demand and keep the dissidents from spilling out into the street completely.

Better technology and improved Facebook profile would accelerate public participation in what was otherwise known as groupwhining, but still otherwise better than going back to roadside activism and being thrown tear gas canisters – like our generational peers on the streets of Egypt, Greece, Italy and other less fortunate places..

Mass marketing and sophisticated brand imagery would improve and somewhat, in my conviction, serve only to strengthen the bond of identity for next generation Indonesians. Consumer advertising remained steady at some double digit growth year on year and in the future years of real time marketing and brand publishing, they could even facilitate more sober and honest, albeit corporate sponsored , but probably useful national discussions. More or less all of the ten or so free to air tv stations broadcasting in the country have now declared their political affiliations. It’s great, in a sense that none of them are government owned and Silvio Berlusconi isn't on the ballot.

Some romantic nationalist would remain prominently in display, if only because such an exciting environ demands adversarial roles, particularly in their historical relevance to the Indonesian value system. Che Guevara will continue to be on tshirts.

In practice, real world problems – like Indonesian future energy supply and the matter of distributing them to power these hundreds of millions of minions - is probably the single biggest issue to be inadvertedly decided in 2014. Real life solution for these problems will not be decided in the political process. Technology is the only realistic way for the country to not go completely stupid and drown in flood. Indonesia will also run out of oil very soon. People don’t seem to get this.

The future will be in where the country lay its priorities. Local automotive industry is already among the largest in the region, transitioning these into more alternative fuel like gas (or smarter manufacturing and more efficient logistics) would help release the pressure but if the 2012 policies remains, it’s unlikely that President SBY could cut oil subsidies and reduce consumption.

(I’m not sure he could afford it – it chopped him some 5% approval rating in his best days when then newly elected President hovers at 70% plus and announced the increase himself. Now the regime barely floats at some 6%, by which logic it follows that the President should consider quitting before he should consider a subsidy cut. Well, it’s not like President Obama had more control of his budget)

Smarter distribution system and growth in second tier hubs will consolidate public spending in places further away from Jakarta and help normalize distribution, but you do not uncover natural resources or easily build bridges everywhere in Indonesia. Sharper disparities and disowned consequences could lead to brutal conflicts as above.

In the best possible and probably most important of its magic, technology and better connectedness will introduce to Indonesians more transparency and increased scrutiny on its largely dysfunctional political system and their dens of thieves. Accelerated democracy will eventually demand accountability, particularly when everyone is paying the price on camera.

Last, Freak Weather.

2012 saw some savage weather rarely seen. Specific to Jakarta, the flood hit the city that was failing all by itself with no natural disaster. Short tropical rains sprayed disarray into the traffic and more water put the country to a stop. Thailand lost about a year of growth in a single flood year.

God forbid, if similar natural disaster visited Jakarta, there was no telling on how much disruption it would introduce. Indonesia, and Jakarta in particular, had proven to be resilient and people will continue to be able to pretend like nothing happened and overcome most of its natural troubles in the longer term, but I think Jakarta needs to have a better plan for emergency services and contingency planning for the more immediate future. Who knows, we probably should go back and invest in making boats.

Teraktual dan Mendidik

2012-09-03T15:42:00.000+07:00

Teraktual Dan Mendidik

Short Notes, ID Media, 2012

2012-08-22T20:37:00.003+07:00

There were many recent discussions on disruptive media landscape in Indonesia post 1998. Notes.

Both on policy level (regulatory framework, economic incentives etc) as well as on the more anecdotal consumer side symptoms: increased political participation over the internet/social network, multiplatform news delivery models (same newsroom delivering content over several medium). Even academic studies.

Frequently, the disruption was characterized as a "Looming Threat" - within several frameworks, as in "concentration of media ownership is a natural threat to democracy/social order."

Frankly, I don't see any merits in these characterizations to support that there is a concentration of any sort - these two very well researched materials from separate sources by Merlyna Lim (Feb 2012) and this one by Mediarights map the ownership structures extensively.

I fail to see any bits of data to illustrate a 'concentration' of any description (no apparent predatory corporate behavior or consolidation pattern beyond what is normal for a market the size of Indonesia, previous notes here).

This aside, there is still the second part of the question - a much more important one imho - which is IF and HOW the current media regime in Indonesia presents a legitimate threat to democracy/social order?

Both researches - and again, I couldn't stress enough how prevalent this preconception is, I'm going to use the word Mainstream to describe it - obviously identifies several issues of concerns: eg. Politics and Free Press, Government Regulatory and Supervisories. Public discussions among experts in the subject repeatedly condemned these mainstream assumptions based on evidentiary (however anecdotal) quality of general Indonesian broadcasting output (Sinetron and Biased News Reporting among the two most often quoted).

While these issues are obviously important, I would point out also the issues that was neglected - at least within the public areas that I'm familiar with or some the academic studies.

Defamation/Libel, for example, is probably the single most important law affecting free speech in Indonesia. Neither studies examined the issues and how it currently affects the climate of Free Press in Indonesia. There's a paper compilation on the subject (From Insult to Injury, Get Antony, Nono Anwar Makarim 2004) - I couldn't find a more updated reference material for the issues in country, but one would suggest that things hasn't changed much since.

Inexperienced and/or inavailability of talent. This is a very simple math. Obviously, by looking at the explosive growth of the industry (TV + Press + Media/Advertising and increasingly, consumer communication companies, eg. Creative Economy) remains the single biggest challenge for Indonesia. There is simply not enough people/grad students in relevant areas to meet the demand. So first generation media companies adapt by consolidating resources and generating next generation of talent.

Indonesian Ministry of Creative Economy have some numbers on these manpower requirement. It's simply not something that could happen overnight as it would take years for the next generation to enter the production market.

Additionally, digital distribution - internet based content delivery model: mobile/web internet/ - radically changed the economics of distribution for a country of this size. Facebook have more users than Indonesia has internet users: why? Because many new generation increasingly experience their media consumption with split media delivery (eg. mobile then web, or mobile - television).

Media Consumption Shift

This shift in Media Consumption is seen and reflected in many, many consumer market research. Here's a recent article from Jakarta Post. Note that this is run contrary to a 'threat to diversity' presumption. If anything, it illustrates the obvious challenges in the changing nature of information distribution in Indonesia - disruptive.

With the internet penetration covering more 70% or so (urban population within reach of digital data network, handset upgrade cycle, when basic GSM phones are shifted out of production and gadgetries turn full internet node) - say, in a trend that begins now (at the moment somewhere around 50% are data enabled - and cheaper electronics of scale (Large scale electronics investment, Foxconn Plant, Reuters) and trade relations with China could accelerate this for Indonesia.

Technology also has its own set of issues, Privacies and Access (as opposed to past broadcast regulatory regime), that is increasingly familiar and very much understudied.

Competition is fierce and investment cost prohibitive with technology keep pushing for bigger and bigger reach, the question is probably better termed as, What or Where Indonesian Media Market would be (or potentially could be, in say, five years time) - if it is to maintain current breakneck growth, or as some industry insiders would say, they worry that the market is simply not there (eg. to support so many players - notice the contrast to the concentration theory). Indeed, this is a valid question as no other market are actually as competitive as Indonesia. Important to note that the SECOND LARGEST category for TELEVISION ADVERTISING is Government Agencies (PSAs and the likes, come election times, this is the single largest revenue source item).

There are many, many problems and challenges facing the media/news industry - and it is true that there's probably not enough of these studies being done for Indonesia specific.

The Fourth Estate

As for being the Fourth Estate, this is a different matter altogether.

There is simply no grounds whatsoever to expect that these freshly minted freshgrads running the newsrooms across the country will deliver the beacon of hope for virtues and democracy in post reform Indonesia. Some television newsrooms require no INDONESIAN language tests, because they simply need bodies and beauties.

All things considered, the sad state of Indonesian television journalistic is NOT the product of bad ownership but simply a reflection of Post Reformasi Indonesian democracy as a whole. The role of the Press is not to advocate for the better - promises belong to the politician tribes - but to maintain the well informed electorate. It's up for the citizens to make stupid decisions, the press is eventually only responsible as far as reporting these stupid decisions. Journalists don't make arrests or sentenced perpetrators - the Executive Branch, and the Judicial Branch do these things. The Media don't get to make laws, Legislators do these. So long as citizens voted for stupid Legislators to make stupid laws and let the Executives lie and abandon their common sense, the journalist and reporters among us are limited to reporting it.

To suggest that Corporate/State Ownership affect the integrity of the reporting - delivering information - is probably an obvious accusation, but eventually faulty. 100% of the time, Media Success Stories are because everyone, owners and journos alike maintain a credible, and trusthworthy structure and code of ethics in how they operate their newsrooms and the businesses.

Great newsrooms are great because they have great journalists/reporters producing news - not because of the Ownership structure of those organizations. In the obvious case of failure, Murdoch print empire collapse because of the stake holders failed to maintain the standard of ethics. These are big and large newsroom with years and decades of collective experience, talent recruitment and nurturing, etc. These is an obvious challenge for all media companies, and even more so facing disruptive digital times. Some newsroom are just bad and inappropriate. You can't help stupid, certainly not by regulating them.

To be blunt, the biggest mistake we could make would be to assume that Government could regulate stupid better than common man.

Mengukur Popularitas Klinik Tong Fang

2012-08-13T07:17:00.003+07:00

Mengukur popularitas Klinik Tong Fang

klinik tong fang

1.00

anas urbaningrum

4.60

(Live Link from Google Trends)