Synthesist

On the selection of countries for the recent US travel ban

2017-01-29T15:17:00.000-05:00

The travel ban applies to seven countries (in alphabetical order): Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen. If we cross-reference against countries which US air and/or drone strikes have targeted in the fight against AQ and ISIS (Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, Yemen), we find that five of the seven are on the list. Why were Afghanistan and Pakistan left off the list? Perhaps because those countries have airbases open to US forces. The addition of Iran and Sudan to the travel ban implies an objective other than Sunni-inspired militancy, as Sudan was targeted as part of a proxy conflict between Iran and Israel.

Interpreting China's cancellation of coal plants

2017-01-22T12:21:00.001-05:00

The superficial spin is that China is taking the lead on climate change, which is all well and fine. The reality is that coal generation capacity is veering into excess, so building idle plants would only benefit the construction industry. On top of that, the long-term goal is to reduce reliance upon coal due to excess air pollution, which is an additional disincentive for building coal plants that may never be used.

The clampdown on approvals for coal plant construction until 2018 is interesting, given the prospect of a 2020 reelection run. If China has stepped up its efforts to get away from coal, that indirectly is an attack on Trump's coal job ambitions, which would be an attack upon his voter base. Trump is therefore additional incentive for China to curb reliance upon coal, and keep coal prices down globally.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/china-to-halt-construction-on-coal-fired-power-plants-in-15-regions/: "China is finally beginning to clamp down on its out of control coal power bubble," said Lauri Myllyvirta, Greenpeace's senior campaigner on coal, in an emailed statement.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/12/global-coal-demand-will-barely-grow-through-2021-says-iea-report.html: IEA expects worldwide growth in coal consumption to average just 0.6 percent between 2015 and 2021 as developed countries continue to abandon the energy source and China's consumption plateaus. That will offset growing demand among emerging nations, particularly in India and Southeast Asia.

Trump policy in Asia appears to be neoconservative via Bolton

2017-01-18T23:32:00.002-05:00

Did some digging, and found that Trump's phone call to Taiwan was right in line with Bolton's direction. Neocon foreign policy appears to be in play now in Asia. People and rapidfire media are too quick to jump to the conclusion that Trump is just winging it, ignoring the fact that he has advisers. It's no coincidence that Breitbart published an article politically rehabilitating the neocon to be acceptable to their alt-right readership, who reject neocons. On the plus side, Bolton is too experienced for accidental war to be likely, though he's tough enough for brinkmanship. As for incendiary statements out of China, their newspaper equivalent of Fox News suggested boosting military capability for invading Taiwan. A lot of heated words, but action is the real tell.

From: http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/01/18/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/trump-adviser-bolton-ex-u-s-envoy-u-n-backs-stationing-forces-taiwan/

"Dreyer noted that it was highly unlikely Bolton would make the comments without Trump’s prior consent. But since Trump hasn’t spoken publicly, he could plausibly deny knowledge of it. Chinese generals, she added, often make incendiary statements, and the Chinese government regularly responds that they speak only for themselves and do not necessarily reflect official policy."

The phone call shouldn't have entirely been a surprise to China, as Bolton had advocated earlier for Obama to take a harder line with China. I predict some brinkmanship to continue until a new equilibrium is reached.

Troll detection in games may be repurposed for the Chinese surveillance state

2015-12-18T18:42:00.003-05:00

Recently, China's Tencent acquired full control of Riot Games, which had been pioneering automated troll detection and account bans. Tencent has collaborated with Chinese authorities in the online surveillance state, with QQ being among their many tools. It's but a small step to leverage the deep learning technology used to identify trolls automatically and turn it toward automated detection of any politically undesirable speech online.

Bedroom brainwashing and ISIL

2015-02-23T08:30:00.000-05:00

Lurid headlines regarding UK schoolgirls fleeing to Syria like "brainwashed in their bedrooms" intuitively appeal to contagion models of why people go bad. We saw this during the Red Scare, where exposure to communist ideology was tantamount to contamination which had to be purged from organizations. However, despite intuitive appeals, it's clearly wrong, as a contagion model clearly does not explain why more people aren't affected.

Given the objectively small numbers, a more useful model to consider would be why women fall for serial killers. Although videos of serial killers in action and their aftermath are rare, photographic evidence and accounts are readily available on the Internet as well. That subject isn't very well studied, but there's no shortage of more plausible speculation as to why women may fall for men who kill. Schwyzer's proposed mechanism of envy while trapped in a highly demanding situation seems to fit, particularly given that the 3 schoolgirls were all reportedly straight A students and therefore likely under high pressure to perform:

the fascination may be less about attraction than about a strange kind of envy of the shows' sociopathic villains. How many bright, talented, acutely sensitive young women have occasionally fantasized about having an internal "mute button" that could silence the judging, nagging, needy voices of all around them?

Saudi playbook for lower oil prices is obvious in retrospect

2015-02-10T21:29:00.001-05:00

According to a piece in mining.com published in January 2013, the EIA's "Annual Energy Outlook 2013" appears to have given Saudi Arabia inspiration for their current stance on maintaining production in the face of lower oil prices:

The extra EIA oil projections are almost as much as Saudi Arabia currently pumps, leading to a scenario whereby for Riyadh, prices will have to fall to stimulate faster consumption growth while discouraging development of rival supply sources.

Given that pronouncement, the Saudi strategy of maintaining production despite lower oil prices hits a home run, by maintaining market share, stimulating oil consumption, and discouraging the development of oil sands, shale oil, and alternative energy. One example of increased consumption is strategic stockpiling of oil by China.

Economic growth in Somalia dependent upon piracy

2014-05-11T09:57:00.002-04:00

According to a recent World Bank report, "Pirate Trails", between U$339-314M was paid out to pirates from 2005-2012. Given the low end estimate over an 8 year span, that's over U$42M/year.

According to UN statistics, the GDP of Somalia from 2010-2011 ranged from U$1067-1071M, with a GDP growth estimate of 2.6%. That works out to under U$28M/year. An obvious implication is that without piracy, the Somali economy would shrink.

Europe more dependent on Nigerian oil than the USA

2014-05-11T09:22:00.001-04:00

According to recent EIA statistics, 44% of Nigerian oil exports go to Europe. Meanwhile, the fracking boom has reduced US dependence on imported oil.
Consequently, don't be surprised at European efforts to stabilize Nigeria, as evidenced by a recent report that France is sending secret service agents to Nigeria. The infrastructure threat is not theoretical, as Boko Haram has threatened oil refineries.

Coding key to national security

2013-12-12T08:03:00.000-05:00

On December 10, we were informed that Chinese hackers targeted five European foreign ministries. On that same day, American politicians agreed that young Americans need to learn to code.

Black banners over Boston?

2013-04-20T11:10:00.001-04:00

It appears the deceased Boston marathon bombing suspect may have reposted a YouTube video of an Islamic apocalyptic prophecy involving the Black Banners of Khurasan.

Back in 2011, Zenpundit guest blogger Charles Cameron pointed out a book that explains the apocalyptic prophecy.

It’s beginning to be embarrassing how obvious the Khorasan / black banner / Mahdism meme is getting these days.

More background can be found here and here.

Iran and the drone

2012-10-13T10:30:00.000-04:00

Last week, Israeli fighter jets intercepted a drone over Israeli airspace. Reportedly, two Python missiles were required to shoot down the drone.

According to Lebanese media, Hezbollah claims to have assembled an Iranian-made drone.

Nasrallah said the drone, which “was manufactured in Iran but assembled by the resistance group,” was launched from Lebanon and violated Israeli space in which it conducted reconnaissance of “sensitive and important locations” before being shot down.

It should also be noted that Hezbollah flew an Iranian Ghods Mohajer surveillance UAV into Israeli airspace in 2004. Hezbollah is also in possession of Iranian Ghods Ababil UAVs, for which there are both surveillance and attack configurations. Hezbollah does not appear to be exaggerating its capability to send additional drones in the future.

In Iranian media, a legislator counted coup against Israel.

The operation code-named Hussein Ayub saw Hezbollah's drone fly hundreds of kilometers into the Israeli airspace and getting very close to Dimona nuclear plant without being detected by advanced Israeli and US radars, Nasrallah said on Thursday evening.

The implication is that Iran can target Israeli nuclear facilities too, with a possible tit-for-tat if Israel launches air attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran may have subsidized the drone, as it provides financial backing to Hezbollah. The drone mission may have been a test run, to collect operational data as well as information on how Israeli air defenses operate. Israeli doctrine against drones will accordingly change, now that the element of technological surprise is gone.

A Sputnik moment in alternative energy

2011-06-12T13:31:00.001-04:00

The political aftermath of Fukushima in Japan and Germany has presented the USA with an opportunity in alternative energy.

Manufacturers of solar panels, wind turbines and electricity network systems are among the key groups that stand to benefit most from [Germany]'s decision to shut down its nuclear plants... Chinese [solar panel] manufacturers have price structures that are far below those of European rivals, Wilkinson said, making it increasingly difficult for the Europeans to compete. As a result, some of them have begun to shift production to Asia to take advantage of the region's low labor costs.

However, this is a race that the USA can win, if they step up to the plate. Rising labor costs in China are projected to result in US manufacturing being cost-competitive later this decade.

“All over China, wages are climbing at 15 to 20 percent a year because of the supply-and-demand imbalance for skilled labor,” said Harold L. Sirkin, a BCG senior partner. “We expect net labor costs for manufacturing in China and the U.S. to converge by around 2015. As a result of the changing economics, you’re going to see a lot more products ‘Made in the USA’ in the next five years.”

But will this moment be recognized?

Timing is everything

2011-05-04T07:51:00.000-04:00

In light of apparent Pakistani complicity in sheltering Osama Bin Laden, it's worth re-examining Cheney's 2007 visit to Pakistan.

A suicide bomber detonated himself outside the main U.S. military base in Afghanistan ... less than 24 hours after U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney arrived ... Cheney had just arrived in Afghanistan following a highly secretive four-hour stopover in Pakistan, where he delivered a muscular private message to President Pervez Musharraf, in which he urged him to crack down more aggressively against Taliban and growing al-Qaeda activities.

Assuming this was not a coincidence, just how much pull did Pakistan's ISI and/or military have with Taliban suicide operations in Afghanistan?

Ironically, Osama Bin Laden ended up being a symbolic target

2011-05-01T23:52:00.000-04:00

Looking back at this NATO report from October, I wonder if it was part of a ploy to prompt Bin Laden to change hiding places, risking exposing his location.

Osama bin Laden is living in relative comfort in the far north-west of Pakistan, according to a Nato official who has day-to-day responsibility for the war in Afghanistan.

Iranian neoliberal economic reform

2010-12-22T19:36:00.003-05:00

Naomi Klein's book, The Shock Doctrine, argues that unpopular neoliberal reforms have been pushed through in countries while citizens were in shock, reacting to disaster and upheavals.

It is implied that some man-made crises, such as the Falklands war, may have been created with the intention of being able to push through these unpopular reforms in their wake.

Iran recently introduced an austerity budget, slashing subsidies for fuel and bread.

Iran's government has slashed subsidies on food, doubling the cost of bread in order to ease pressure on an economy straining under international sanctions... Prices for subsidized fuel quadrupled on Sunday as part of a new economic plan ...

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad vowed to end all subsidies by 2013. The pattern fits the thesis of Klein's book, as last year Iran cracked down on dissent, created an environment hostile to protests:

The cuts in subsidies are far more severe [than in 2007] but the response has been muted. Iran observers attribute it to a climate of fear following a government crackdown in the aftermath of the 2009 presidential election controversy.

If Klein's thesis applies, then Ahmadinejad deliberately has been stoking a crisis over Iranian nuclear capability in order to justify suppression of dissent, paving the way for neoliberal elimination of government subsidies.

Limits to the utility of fingerprinting

2010-06-17T21:01:00.003-04:00

According to Kyodo News, a Chinese woman had her fingerprints surgically altered in order to bypass biometric airport security.

Lin Xiuai, 33, a resident of Yokohama, has told investigators she underwent surgery to change her fingerprints at a clinic in China's Fujian Province for about ¥30,000, the sources said.

That's only on the order of U$330. That makes it very cost-effective to defeat biometric fingerprint infrastructure.

Two accounts

2010-06-03T13:40:00.002-04:00

An Israeli media report:

Tens of thousands gathered in Istanbul Thursday for prayers for activists killed in Israel's raid on aid ships bound for Gaza, condemning the Jewish state and shouting support for Hamas.
"Damn Israel! Israel is the angel of death!" chanted the crowd which overflowed the sprawling courtyard of the Fatih Mosque, waving Turkish and Palestinian flags...
"We are all soldiers of Hamas," the crowd shouted.
Nine people - eight Turks and a US national of Turkish origin - were killed in Monday's pre-dawn raid by Israeli forces on the Turkish ferry, Mavi Marmara, the lead ship in the aid flotilla aiming to break the Gaza blockade.
"May your martyrdom be blessed," read a huge banner in the colors of the Palestinian flag, hung on the wall surrounding the mosque courtyard...

In contrast, a Turkish media report:

Thousands of people came to the historic Fatih Mosque in İstanbul yesterday to pay their final respects to the victims, whose bodies were brought to the mosque for a funeral prayer following an autopsy at the Council of Forensic Medicine (ATK).
The bodies were brought into the mosque courtyard while verses of the Quran were recited. The crowd then shouted slogans, including “Damn Israel” and “Murderer Israel-Accomplice US,” following which the funeral prayer was said.
The funeral was also attended by Energy Minister Taner Yıldız, İstanbul Governor Hüseyin Avni Mutlu, İstanbul Mayor Kadir Topbaş, Felicity Party (SP) leader Numan Kurtulmuş and Bülent Yıldırım, chairman of the Humanitarian Aid Foundation (İHH), the aid agency that organized the Turkey arm of the international campaign to send the aid ships to the impoverished Gaza Strip.

The first report makes it sound like yet another angry mob demonstration, easily dismissed. The second report notes the presence of Turkish officials, which I find significant, as well as anti-American sentiments being expressed. I also have to wonder how many of those chanting slogans were mobilized by the marginal Felicity Party and the IHH.

Profiling defeated via jihadi information war

2010-03-11T11:57:00.003-05:00

A middle-aged and suburban would-be terrorist termed "Jihad Jane" in the media was both female and white, as well as born in the USA. Far from being lone wolf operatives, however, the jihadi strategy of recruiting online has an inherent weakness tempering its effectiveness: sites can also be monitored by security agencies.

Radical, English-language Islamist websites that promote a violent jihad, or holy war, against the West have become more effective at recruiting Americans and providing a place for armchair terrorists to meet and plan attacks in the U.S. or abroad, experts say.

The war on terrorism is also an information war.

Gender profiling no longer viable

2010-01-24T02:21:00.003-05:00

According to recent reports, militants allied with al Qaida have trained women with a Western appearance as suicide bombers.

The women, who may have a "non Arab" appearance and be travelling on Western passports, have been prepared for their missions by the Yemeni group responsible for the operation to blow up an airliner over the United States on Christmas Day.

At this point, I have to wonder if a goal of militants is to provoke the West into instituting regular body cavity searches at airports.

Racial profiling of terrorists now futile

2009-12-30T11:35:00.004-05:00

The recent attempted in-flight bomb attack by a Nigerian national means that racial profiling of terrorists based on previous cases cannot merely be restricted to Arab Muslims, but also African Muslims. At this rate, it's only a matter of time before Asian and Caucasian militants are employed to get past airport screening. Back in September, Pakistan reported encountering a village of white expat German radical Muslims near the Afghan border.

Update: In 2007, two members of a bomb plot in Germany were white German nationals who had converted to Islam. Combined with the potential from Indonesian Islamic militants, no race can be ruled out as a potential threat.

Countering the body cavity bomb

2009-09-30T16:59:00.002-04:00

It turns out that recently a suicide bomber attacked a Saudi prince by hiding the bomb in an undignified body cavity. One potential technological countermeasure that could be adapted to airport security requirements: ultrasound scans to search for detonators.

Settling old scores

2009-09-17T11:24:00.002-04:00

It's adding up to quite a month. In Somalia, US special forces killed a militant leader alleged to have been behind the 1998 embassy attacks in Kenya and Tanzania. Now, Indonesian police claim to have killed the alleged mastermind of the 2002 and 2005 Bali bombings. Drone attacks on militant leaders continue in Pakistan. Are we seeing an escalation in targeted killing as a tactic?

Fiscal conservatism is off the US roadmap for now

2009-07-05T12:33:00.005-04:00

Future epic tax increases are hardly a new concern. I expect little to be done regardless of which political party wins the election in 2012. I note that the current House minority leader made excuses for growing, record budget deficits in 2003.

...judging by a bill that Congress is taking up Monday, the lasting fiscal legacy of the Bush administration will also include a historic rise in domestic spending that could affect everything from consumer interest rates to a fiscal landscape that could force epic tax increases in future.

The piece Boehner wrote has been taken down from his web site, but remains archived.

... Republicans also are far from being purely conservative. A conservative would like to see the government shrink; a Republican does too, but - in acknowledging political realities (a new defensive posture after September 11th for one) and the multitude of stakeholders in government after years of liberal control - has often had to settle for simply slowing its rate of growth. Republicans have accepted such realities as the burdens of majority governance.
The Republican Party has in recent years, contrary to conservative means - but still consistent with its fundamental tenets - sought to use the power of government for conservative ends.

The end result of this compromise? The Tax Cut and Spend Party.

High altitude ice particles may have affected Air France 447

2009-06-04T15:16:00.004-04:00

Here's a scenario that may account in part for the recent loss of Air France 447: high altitude ice crystals inducing engine shutdown. The shutdown of both engines happened to a Qatar Airways A330 in 2006.

At high altitude near intense storms, moisture turns into tiny ice crystals that can be sucked inside an engine. At first, the crystals melt. But sometimes the water freezes again on metal surfaces. Eventually, accumulating ice can either break into chunks that damage turbine blades, or melt and douse the ignition system...
By examining the dual-engine flameouts in relation to storm patterns, Mr. Hookey and other investigators began unraveling the icing mystery. Powerful thunderstorms, particularly over the Pacific Ocean in the spring and summer, can spawn smaller-than-normal ice particles...

High altitude? 35,000 feet. Near intense storms? The aircraft flew right into a thunderstorm zone. Wrong ocean, but the right seasonality for high altitude ice particles.

Chinese stimulus, not global recovery

2009-05-19T16:12:00.003-04:00

When the US administration announced massive spending in response to the ongoing economic downturn, China was left with the dilemma of what to do with US trade surplus dollars now that Treasuries would be a bad bet going forward thanks to inflation. Gold and precious metals are not an option, though China has stockpiled gold reserves in the past several years.

A recent Bloomberg piece points to what is going on with China's apparent stockpiling of resources.

China, the world’s second-biggest energy consumer, will provide the [$10 billion] loan to the [Brazilian] oil company known as Petrobras, which will supply 150,000 barrels of crude a day to the Asian nation this year and 200,000 barrels in 2010...
Lula, 63, is seeking to attract investment and open China’s markets to Brazilian exports ... to help blunt his country’s sharpest economic contraction on record. China is securing energy resources to power its economy, the world’s third-largest, by offering loans to oil-producing countries including Russia, Venezuela and Kazakhstan.
China also agreed on Feb. 17 to provide Russia with $25 billion of loans in return for 300,000 barrels a day of oil for 20 years. Venezuela’s Petroleos de Venezuela, known as PDVSA, will provide 200,000 barrels a day to the Asian country to pay down a $4 billion loan from China Development Bank Corp.

With this, the pieces begin fall in place. What we are seeing is a hybrid strategy which resembles both global economic stimulus and resource colonialism.

Wall Street analysts who view Chinese stockpiling as indicating recovery are mistaken. Stockpiling is more properly viewed a strategic move as well as a stimulus measure.

China is stockpiling commodities such as copper and iron ore as part of a reallocation of its sovereign wealth amid concern that the value of its dollar assets may decline, according to the Royal Bank of Canada.

Stockpiling props up current resource prices, reducing the need for companies to shutter mining capacity due to cash flow and profitability concerns. At the same time, loans provide much needed capital to developing economies, and secure longer-term access to needed resources at favorable prices, thanks to the impact of the ongoing economic crisis upon emerging markets. This combined investment boosting resource extraction infrastructure will moderate the impact of any resource supply squeeze when economies eventually ramp up, at least for the Chinese economy. It can even be argued that China is also countering peak oil concerns by investing in efforts to bring new supply to market.