Tropical Oscillations

Irene: Not bad here, can't say the same for up north

2011-08-25T13:58:00.002-04:00

Hurricane Irene continues to move as forecast earlier this week. Overnight tonight she is expected to be a major hurricane centered 150-200 miles east of Melbourne. There are no tropical watches or warnings in effect for any portion of Florida as I type, and none appear to be in the offing. I have heard no mention of the schools of causeways closing as of yet. Primary impacts here will be lots of wind and clouds, with some squally rain. Folks should heed the rip current warnings and stay out of the ocean (it's OK to look, just don't touch). Unpleasant weather? Sure. Catastrophic or worthy of canceling indoor events? Not so much.

Turning our attention to the north, there are no credible model forecasts that have Irene missing the US. Landfall is currently forecast for just south of the Outer Banks, NC on Saturday during daylight hours (great for the cable news talking heads and budding Cantore wannabees). Irene is further forecast to proceed along the coast and affect the major I-95 cities of the northeast. Storm surge along the Maryland, NJ, and NY City coastlines (potentially 15 feet) is likely to cause significant flooding.

For my northern readers (OK, mostly family; this blog isn't that popular outside of Melbourne) preparations should be completed tomorrow. You should be prepared for a power outage that may last up to 3 days, which means no cooking, no gas stations, no credit cards, no ATM's; in other words, you'll be camping for 3 days. This link contains some useful information and a shopping list. Yes, the tone of the link is, well, southern, and there is a bit of unneeded discussion about boarding up the house (too late for that, probly not required), but the general preparedness theme should be heeded before it's too late.

Irene blows off the cobwebs

2011-08-23T09:30:00.002-04:00

Well, it has been quite some time since I've made a posting here; IMO a good thing as that means we haven't been threatened very much in three years. As I blow the cobwebs off the blog, please understand all the links to the right will be slowly updated (webmasters like to move links around every now and then).

Irene seemingly posed much more of a threat to us yesterday than it does today. Extra weather observations over the Atlantic and the US were loaded into the suite of weather forecast models last night, and the resulting forecasts all take Irene east of Florida. The Bahamas will take a direct hit for sure, but it seems Florida will be spared. Where (if?) Irene makes landfall along the east coast is still to be determined; when hurricanes parallel the east coast, little wiggles in the track can make a huge difference in the impact felt, making the forecast a bit more interesting.

The intensity forecast is fairly straight forward. The ocean is warm and the wind shear is low, so it is hard to envision a scenario where Irene does not become a major (category 3) storm. Most forecasts make her a Cat 4, but she might make it to a 5 before all is said and done.

Impacts to us here in Florida aren't too bad, once you become comfortable with a Cat4/5 major hurricane 100-150 miles to your east. Conditions will begin to deteriorate here on Thursday afternoon and Friday; mostly clouds, occasional showers, and winds possible to tropical storm force (esp. beach side). Once Irene moves away from us, conditions should begin to improve starting late Friday.

Still west

2008-09-07T07:25:00.000-04:00

Hurricane Ike is set to visit Cuba as a cat 4 storm (135 MPH, 948 mb) during the next two days. You can easily imagine the damage that will occur along a large majority of the island. Evacuations in the Keys are continuing today.

Beyond that, computer models continue to shift toward the west. It now seems as if Texas is just as likely (if not more so) for landfall than Florida is, which is a rather remarkable change of events from the expected Miami landfall 24-36 hours ago.

Some restrengthening is expected once Ike emerges from Cuba, but there's a chance Ike won't strengthen rapidly due to dry air and unfavorable upper-level winds in the Gulf of Mexico in about 5 days. But that's 5 days away---lots can change.

Today there doesn't appear to be a threat to our area from Ike. However, hurricanes can continue to surprise us, and I'll feel better when Ike has reached a position north of us (about 28.50 degrees north). Hotel reservations will be canceled later this morning.

The last hurricane center advisory on Hanna, now located near Boston, was issued this morning. Hanna dropped a swath of 2-6 inches of rain over most of the mid-Atlantic, northeast, and New England yesterday. Put another way, one or two months worth of rain for that part of the country fell in about 6 hours.

Heading west

2008-09-06T07:10:00.000-04:00

Hanna made landfall around 3:30 this morning as a strong tropical storm along the NC/SC border. Some residents of Myrtle Beach are without power, but otherwise things appear to be going as well as could be expected. Hanna is expected to quickly move north and affect most residents of the east coast in some manner over the next few days.

Ike is a cat 3 hurricane (115 MPH, 962 mb) moving quickly toward the west southwest at 16 MPH. As you've no doubt seen, the forecast track has significantly shifted toward the south and west during the last 24 hours. The model spaghetti map (right hand menu bar) shows most of the guidance expects Ike to completely miss Florida. Tourist evacuations for the Keys begin today, and resident evacs tomorrow. Assuming no land interactions with Cuba, Ike is expected to be a major hurricane as it passes through the Florida Straits.

While we're not canceling hotel reservations yet, we are breathing easier this morning compared to yesterday. We're certainly not planning to move the shutters out of the garage either.

Georgia on my mind

2008-09-05T10:30:00.000-04:00

But first...Hanna. Currently she's about 100 miles east of us, bringing some rain and wind to our area. She is moving toward the northwest at 18 MPH and she is expected to increase her forward speed during the day. Implication here is that conditions should improve as the day goes on. I received an inch of rain overnight, and looking at the drainage around the neighborhood this morning it's clear the soil remains rather saturated--there is much more pooling of water from an inch of rain than I normally see.

Ike is behaving according to plan. Shear from the north has weakened Ike down to a Cat 3 storm with estimated maximum sustained winds of 125 MPH. Central pressure is estimated to be 945 mb; a plane will be sampling Ike later this afternoon to provide more accurate values for these parameters. The eye is near the northern edge of the convection, reflecting the effect of the upper-level shear.

Ike is supposed to begin it's turn toward the south and west today and, in fact, appears to have already begun this turn. The amount of wavyness (or, if you'd rather, the amplitude of the sine wave-like track) in the official forecast track has decreased today compared to yesterday. Additionally, the forecast models are trending south and west with their tracks. The official 5 day forecast point is now south of Miami, which reflects the forecast model trends to build in the surface ridge over the Atlantic stronger than previously anticipated. This morning, the majority of model tracks are south of this area and many of them miss the peninsula to the south (the Keys are another story). One fairly reliable model has been forecasting landfall along the northern Gulf Coast for the last few model cycles. For now, the feeling is it may pass to our south and west, but we really won't have a good idea until Sunday morning.

The shear should relax in about 24 hours. Thereafter, it is difficult to find an argument against intensification, and Ike is expected to be a major hurricane in 5 days.

This is the time to begin to review your personal plans, just in case you need to take action. We have secured hotel reservations in Savannah for the middle of next week. Keep in mind this does not mean we're planning to beat feet out of here, just that I've got a place in case I need to. Hotel reservations can always be canceled. The shutters remain in the garage for now. Decisions should be clearer on Sunday morning.

I don't like Ike

2008-09-04T10:20:00.000-04:00

Hanna no longer appears to be a threat to our area. The turn to the north has finally begun (moving NW at 12 MPH) and she is sufficiently far away from our coast that she shouldn't pose a wind or rain threat. Rip currents might be a concern--in fact it would be best to simply look at the ocean instead of venturing into it for the next few days.

My focus turns now to Ike, a Cat 4 storm (145 MPH) churning in the open Atlantic and moving west at 17 MPH. Central pressure is 935 mb on satellite this morning Ike looks like a classic hurricane. The uncomplicated part of the forecast is in the next 2 days: Ike is forecast to move in a west or just south of west direction to a position near the southern Bahamas by Sunday morning. Some increase in strength is possible over the next day before Ike enters a shearing environment during the afternoon tomorrow, which would induce some weakening, yet still maintain Ike as a major hurricane.

Once near the Bahamas (on Sunday) forward speed slows and a turn toward the northwest begins. The exact location where this turn begins is impossible to predict this far in advance, though it obviously has severe ramifications for coastal impacts. Many of the models are hinting at a recurvature just off to our east in about 6-7 days, but we need to get a little closer to the event to be certain of that. Even if recurvature occurs, Ike should still be a major hurricane in 6-7 days.

A turn northward?

2008-09-03T06:25:00.000-04:00

Possibly. And the forecast is a little more promising for EC Florida if the turn north had indeed begun.

The northerly shear (i.e., from north to south) beat the stuffing out of Hanna yesterday. At 5 AM this morning winds were at 50 MPH and the central pressure is 993 mb. Hanna is much closer to Hispaniola than the official forecasts ever contemplated. Just like Fay and Gus, a visit to Hispaniola appears to be required for tropical cyclones this summer.

We've had the airplanes flying in and around Hanna yesterday and today. The "easy" flight: a data gathering mission in a Gulfstream jet flying around, but nowhere near, the storm flew last night and logged extra data that was loaded into last night's forecast models. The "hard" flights (into the center of the storm) have also been flying to report the location of the center (good thing--figuring that out from a satellite loop isn't easy this morning). The "hard" flights report this morning that Hanna has begun to slowly move to the north. The 5 AM report was the first report of this motion, so I'm not entirely convinced it has started yet. Hopefully the motion is to the north and it is maintained for the next few days.

The "easy" misison data shifted the forecast tracks a little father off the EC Florida coast overnight. This is due in part to the storm motion toward the east over the last 12-ish hours. If Hanna maintains a motion to the north, then the forecast modeling should be a bit more accurate than it has been over the last few days (trying to solve an admittedly difficult modeling problem). The forecast still calls for landfall in South Carolina as a Cat 1 hurricane in 2-3 days.

Local impacts obviously will change with the forecast, since small wiggles in track can cause big problems in this case. The Navy Tracking Map (link in the right hand side menu bar) shows the expected wind speeds using the mutant circles. The outermost circle is the radius of 35 knot winds (about 40 mph). Subsequent circles are at 50 kts (about 58 mph) and 65 kts (75 mph). The current forecast has the 35 knot circle glancing the coast early Friday morning, so we'll get some wind and some rain. Since Hanna should be a fast mover, Fay-like rainfall amounts are not expected. It's still too early to figure if things will be closed on Thursday and/or Friday just yet.

Ike continues moving toward the west at 18 mph. He is expected to become a hurricane soon and the forecast has him as a strong Cat 2 storm in 5 days. Most of the models bend Ike to our south, save for two models that have Ike either farther north or recurving just off of our coastline (in 8 days). Too early to tell yet whether or not Ike will pose a problem for us yet.

Hanna coming close, Ike on the way

2008-09-02T09:15:00.001-04:00

No, I haven't boarded up and left town. Just been busy at a soccer tournament and dealing with a sick cat...

Hanna is back down to a tropical storm this morning, with maximum sustained winds at 70 MPH and a central pressure of 987 mb. Hanna was in the right place at the right time yesterday with respect to the upper-level shear pattern--the shear actually helped to vent the top of the storm and allow the thunderstorms to blow up (if you will). The shear pattern has shifted today, and is now basically blowing the tops toward the southeast. The cyclone has lost some of its structure and kinda looks like, well, a big blob.

The upper-level shear from the north is not expected to move the low-level center toward the south. Hanna is wandering toward the west at 2 MPH. The low-level steering currents have collapsed as forecast. The current forecast expects Hanna to begin moving toward the northwest overnight tonight as a surface high pressure ridge builds in to the northeast of Hanna. Once Hanna begins to move, she should continue to pick up speed, and pass by our coast early Friday morning. This forecast brings tropical storm force winds to our area Thursday night into Friday morning. We might get another hurricane day on Thursday or Friday, depending upon how the forecast pans out.

The problem with the current forecast concerns how far Hanna drifts to the west before the turn toward the north begins. Obviously, the further west she goes, the closer to Florida she gets, which makes a bigger problem for us. The forecast becomes a lot easier once the motion to the north begins. None of the forecast models have Hanna making landfall south of Melbourne, and most indicate landfall somewhere in South Carolina. However, one little wiggle here or there could create a lot of problems for Florida, since Hanna will be moving parallel to our coast.

Tropical Storm Ike formed yesterday. This forecast remains rather uncomplicated, a rarity for us over the last few weeks. Ike is booking to the west at 15 MPH and should be located in the southern Bahamas (basically where Hanna is this morning) in 5 days--recurvature into the Atlantic seems rather unlikely. The fast motion toward the west is expected to continue, meaning that a huge change in direction would be unlikely (hurricanes moving at 15 MPH don't stop on a dime and change direction). For now, Ike would appear to be a threat to the eastern Gulf of Mexico in about 10 days, but we have to watch that one too.

And then there's TD#10, which should recurve out into the open Atlantic and give us a breather.

Edit: Fixed central pressure measurement.

2008-08-31T07:50:00.000-04:00

Hurricane Gustav continues to head toward Louisiana this morning. Landfall as a major hurricane is expected tomorrow around noon. Unlike some recent hurricanes that have weakened prior to landfall along the north gulf coast (Katrina is the most recent example) it appears that won't be the case with Gus. Strengthening is expected today as Gus heads over the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane warnings for all of Louisiana were hoisted this morning, and the city of New Orleans has told everyone to get out now. Local impacts include the wind and outer bands of rain during the day today.

Bigger local story is Hanna. Clearly, Hanna doesn't look like much when viewed from satellite. She's been in a hostile environment for the last few days, and little strengthening is expected over the next three days as she wanders somewhat aimlessly toward the Bahamas. Even more shear--this time from north to south-- is expected over Hanna in the 2-4 day period, but the computer guidance doesn't predict Hanna to weaken very much while moving a little toward the south.

At this point, the modeling becomes a little more interesting. All of the models turn Hanna toward the north or northwest. Many of them have this turn occurring east of the Bahamas, such that Hanna passes off to our east. One model takes Hanna farther south (to Cuba) than all the rest; the resulting track takes the storm over Florida but to our west. The sooner the turn toward the north begins, the less likely Hanna will prove to be a problem for us. It might be a couple more days before we figure that out though.

Hanna gets interesting

2008-08-29T11:10:00.001-04:00

Tropical Storm Hanna will make for an interesting week next week.

Yesterday TD#8 was upgraded to TS Hanna. Hanna then promptly had it's thunderstorms blown well to the east by shear, leaving the center completely exposed. Since then, thunderstorms have reformed over (well, at least closer to) the center. The shear from the upper level low to the west is expected to relax and allow Hanna to organize and strengthen over the next couple of days.

Many of the forecast models (and the official forecast) take Hanna to about 26 N latitude and 70 W longitude, or about 600 miles SE of Melbourne by Sunday morning. Then things get interesting. Some models effectively stall Hanna near this spot, and a few are starting to turn it to the south. While this would be an unusual track, it has happened before. All of this would be in response to an area of high pressure building in from the north; since Hanna can't go over it and can't go through it, it's gotta go around it. We've even got one model that avoids Florida all together and makes a landfall in the north central Gulf of Mexico which, while neat to look at, is a ten-day forecast making it hard to believe for now.

For now, Hanna still needs to be watched, but things are too uncertain to take any action.

Gustav has moved away from Jamaica and is expected to begin a phase of rapid strengthening as it heads toward western Cuba and for now, the west Louisiana / east Texas portion of the Gulf Coast. There are some variables and uncertainities in Gus' track as well; hopefully some of these will be fleshed out tonight with some special data that will be loaded into tonight's set of model runs (also true for Hanna). Some wind shear is forecast which Gus reaches the Gulf of Mexico, so some weakening is expected, but he should still make landfall as a major hurricane.

Gus marching in? TD#8 forms

2008-08-28T08:57:00.000-04:00

Tropical Storm Gustav has strengthened and moved south this morning. The strengthening (now 70 MPH and 988 mb) was expected as Gus pulled away from land. The jog/relocation south was not expected; the short term track now has Gus passing south of Jamaica instead of to the north. It is expected to turn toward the west today, however if it goes much further south, a Mexican landfall comes back into play. The long term track still points Gus to New Orleans, potentially allowing that city to test their new evacuation plans. I also noticed pump prices at the local WalMart gas station jumped a dime this morning.

Of more immediate concern locally is newly form Tropical Depression 8 which will probably be Tropical Storm Hanna in the next 24-36 hours. Previously I thought this would curve harmlessly out to sea, and it still may do that since, historically, many storms that cross 20 north latitude at 58 west longitude pose little threat to Florida. For now, the models basically point Hanna toward us, so it bears continued watching. Currently there is (and has been for the last few days) an upper-level low to the west of TD#8 disrupting the storm; this low is forecast to weaken and allow TD#8 to strengthen.

A ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in from the north and block the poleward path of TD#8/Hanna (stop me if you've heard that before) in about 3 days. Forecasting the strength, location, and movement of this ridge for now seems to be the critical part of the forecast, and, of course, all the usual caviats regarding model forecasts of newly formed tropical cyclones apply. This morning's 5 day forecast position is still 600 miles to our east, and at that point Hanna is expected to be moving very slowly, so there is no immediate threat. Just keep watching

Gus is interesting, but make sure you look east

2008-08-27T06:30:00.000-04:00

Gustav will be the big story over the weekend, but please keep your eyes looking east too.

Gus made landfall on the southwestern coast of Haiti yesterday as a hurricane. He has since weakened to a tropical storm with 60 MPH winds due to land interactions. The current forecast has Gus moving along the southern Cuban coast, cross the extreme western tip of Cuba, and then essentially head for the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast as a major hurricane. Buy...Gas...Now...

The bigger local threat is from the broad area of low pressure several hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward islands. This area is expected to develop later this week as the upper-level winds become more favorable in that part of the world. While most of the models recurve this system between 65 and 70 degrees west longitude (i.e., well off our coast) we do have one model that indicates a threat to our area in about 8 days. You don't need to board up now, but you do need to watch it.

Hop on the bus, Gus

2008-08-26T05:42:00.000-04:00

We've got ourselves a hurricane. Probably gonna be a bigun too by the time all is said and done.

Gustav ("Gus") was upgraded to a hurricane at this morning's 5 AM advisory. Maximum sustained winds are 85 MPH, and reading the Hurricane Center's thinking this morning one gets the impression it might very well be stronger than that. Central pressure is 984 mb.

Gus is moving toward the northwest at 9 MPH. Over the past day or so Gus was moving northward in response to a low pressure system to its north and a ridge of high pressure its east. This low pressure system has moved on to the east and has been replaced with a strengthening ridge of high pressure that is now located to the north of Gus. Accordingly, we expect Gus to slow its forward speed and turn toward the left (west). The official forecast grazes the southwestern coast Haiti, and then moves south of Cuba hitting the very western end of Cuba in 5 days. All of the model guidance is fairly well south of this forecast track, and the hurricane center acknowledges their track might be too far to the north. Given the natural inclination on their part to slowly modify forecast tracks (something that has served them very well over the years) this was a fairly significant shift on their part. If they moved their tracks as wildly as some of the models do, one day we'd have them warning Boston and the next day Houston. At any rate, look for a track modification to the south with subsequent forecasts.

Beyond 5 days, of course is a crapshoot (that would be why "errors may be large" accompanies every 5 day forecast, and no forecasts are made beyond that). There is, of course the good chance Gus hits the Yucatan. If Gus emerges farther north into the Gulf of Mexico, then it gets interesting. Anywhere from the FL Panhandle to Mexico would be possible locations for landfall. My guess is for the Yucatan, but I'm not always right about these things. Central Florida seems relatively safe for now.

Strength, again, is a little easier. The water is warm, the shear is low, Gus is getting its act together, so I see no reason why we won't have a major cane on our hands in a couple days, provided Gus refuses the temptations of landmasses.

There is another area of interest to the east of Puerto Rico. This area is expected to recurve well east of our area and present no problems for us.

Fay gone, next one coming?

2008-08-24T08:16:00.000-04:00

The Hurricane Center has finally issued it's last advisory for Fay. The remnants of Fay will continue to drop more rain than most people need over the southern US. The forecasts diverge a fair bit regarding the length that the remnants will hang around the southern US.

There are actually two areas of investigation in the Atlantic. I've been looking for the last couple days at the southern of these two areas, near the coast of Venezuela. The second is near 23N and 52W and honestly appears to be too far north to cause any harm to us and is moving into an area of increased shear, though it still bears watching. The first, southern area continues to be of more concern. The models remain in two camps, one well south of us (not too big a deal) and one just a tiny bit east of us (bigger deal). Either way, we expect this to become stronger over the next few days since the shear is low, and the water is warm. For now, I'm thinking the southern route makes more sense, but I'm not entirely convinced yet.

Beautiful morning, and the next one

2008-08-23T07:58:00.000-04:00

Blue sky, sun is up, not overly hot or humid (though with the dewpoint at 75 F I must be adapting) and a light breeze. Roads are bone dry (at least here) and the local canals are back to normal height (though the big ones remain swollen). If there was a golf course around that wasn't flooded it would be a great morning to get out and play...

I'd prefer not to talk about Fay anymore, so all I'll mention is that the southeastern most scattered bands of rain are near Ocala. I hear Georgia wants the rain...they can have it.

The "next one" is an area of concern centered near 10 N and 55 W. Now, before you go and get your tarps out, the next one is merely the next one to watch, not necessarily the next one coming here. I mentioned this area yesterday, and then noted the computer model trend was to recurve it out in the Bahamas. Since then, the center has relocated a fair bit to the south and east and those models that picked up on the shift have now modified their track to be more of a Jamaica, Yucatan, and Gulf of Mexico threat. A model or two still do call for recurvature, so this remains one to watch. It will take another day (at least) for the models to reasonably focus on a solution.

There appear to be no obvious reasons for the system to decay: the shear is low and expected to remain so, the water is warm, and the dry air is slowly eroding.

Drying out and cleaning up

2008-08-22T06:14:00.000-04:00

Things are beginning to improve. The roads in this neighborhood are mostly dry now. I'm amazed at how quickly the drainage worked, since there was an awful lot of water that had to be moved here and elsewhere. Other neighborhoods obviously had more flooding problems than we did, and their cleanup will take much longer.

The sun made a brief appearance yesterday afternoon, and I was able to see a small piece of blue sky yesterday. First time since the weekend I think. As Fay slowly pulls off to the north and west at 6 MPH, conditions should improve. We remain under a tropical storm warning, and the rainshield still extends east of Orlando. The good news is that the satellite images indicate the cloud shield extends only about60-80 miles south of here--we might get another patch of blue sky later today, but hopefully more than that to help dry things out.

The center of Fay is near Gainesville this morning, and in three days is expected to be north and a little east of New Orleans. She has not changed strength very much since yesterday.

Looking ahead, there is another area of concern currently located 600 miles east of the islands. The Hurricane Center gives this a medium probability of development over the next 48 hours, so it bears some watching. Only one model (for now) develops this area into anything of concern, and that development passes well off to our east.

The tide is high

2008-08-21T09:12:00.000-04:00

A few pictures from around the neighborhood. The first is the pond that my street is supposed to drain into. The kids fish from that dock in drier times.

This is the dock at our pavilion near the front of the neighborhood.

And finally this is the pond at the pavilion.

Roads in the neighborhood are generally passable. I was able to carefully drive out and, once I made it out of the neighborhood, the roads were clear without standing water. The grocery store was opening, though some of the small businesses might decide to wait a little while before opening.

Fay has technically made it offshore at Daytona, so the third landfall in Fay's "Triple Lindy" trek should occur sometime today. Since Fay is currently stationary, it'll actually need to move to accomplish this. Movement is expected today, as the high pressure from the northeast builds south. Winds are at 60 MPH and the pressure is at 994 mb; neither of these measures have changed much overnight while Fay was just offshore.

...nor any drop to drink

2008-08-20T18:02:00.003-04:00

A view down the street

and a view up the street

Newsflash: it stopped raining here about 15 minutes ago.

Fay is moving north at 2 MPH...must be stuck in traffic or something. A good chance of rain exists probably through mid-afternoon tomorrow, as Fay finally begins to move off to the north and west. Any chance we get to pump down the streets, ponds, and canals is welcome.

When!! When!! WHEN!!!

2008-08-20T16:35:00.000-04:00

OK...'nuff rain for us...thanks.

We're up to around 20 inches, give or take. There appears to be no quit in the storm, just when I can see a "drier" patch on the radar, it fills in with the nasty heavy stuff and the train keeps rolling the rain in. Flooding is an obvious problem. Here's an image I shot from the front door of the hodo-hut around 12:30 this afternoon:

And here's the same shot at 4 PM:

The street flooding isn't terrible here--in fact there are places where there is no water on the road at all just down the street. Watching and reading other media reports indicates things are much worse elsewhere.

Building an Ark

2008-08-20T09:46:00.001-04:00

Overnight, Tropical Storm Fay made it to the east coast near Sebastian, then decided to turn left and parallel the coast. The Weather Service office in Melbourne reported the center passed over their office at 2:45 AM, and I've heard other unofficial reports similar to this around 4:15 in the Suntree area.

My raingauge remains broken, but I've heard reports of 15 inch rainfall storm totals in North Melbourne. The flooding here isn't terribly bad, it's much worse in other parts of the area, but I'd still like it to stop raining soon for no other reason than the dog needs a nice long walk.

At 8 AM this morning, Fay was located at Cape Canaveral, moving not fast enough at 5 MPH toward the north. Wind speeds are down to 45 MPH and the pressure has risen to 994 mb.

The forecast track has Fay running parallel to the coast and recurving back to the west just north of Daytona as a tropical storm--some increase in strength is forecast, but Fay isn't expected to become a hurricane before landfall. From Daytona, Fay heads straight for Tallahassee.

Currently there's a large shield of rain from North Melbourne south to Ft Pierce, that I fear might move toward the north with Fay. If so, the rain is unlikely to end here for the rest of the day.

Who said weakening?

2008-08-19T17:34:00.000-04:00

I told you we're not very good at this intensity thing, didn't I?

During the day, Fay intensified--yes, over land--rather than weakened. The central pressure fell by a couple of millibars and the maximum winds increased from 60 to 65 MPH. Not a huge change, however, the increased organization has prompted changes to the forecast track and (if you're still willing to believe it) intensity forecast. The reasons for strengthening over land rather than the expected weakening aren't immediately clear. Certainly the terrain of Florida is nothing like that over Hispaniola, so we weren't expecting the system to be shredded to bits. I would dispute the effects of Lake Okeechobee or the Everglades as a nice warm water source, as I don't think the circulation center ever went over those areas. It's possible the added friction over Florida helped to consolidate the ragged center into one coherent center. Additionally, throughout its history, Fay has been able to maintain a rather robust mid-level circulation (it's looked much more impressive on satellite than it really was).

As I type, the worst of the storm so far has just moved through this area. Numerous rotating cells were seen on the Melbourne radar, prompting tornado warnings for our area. Additional intense cells are will be moving into the region through the night. It might be a good idea to turn on the weather radio tonight.

Fay is moving toward the north-northeast at 8 MPH. The track has become more, ahem, interesting. The new track has Fay crossing the east coast at Melbourne as a tropical storm overnight tonight. It will then swing out into the Atlantic around Daytona making landfall near Jacksonville Thursday afternoon. Most of the strength with Fay to this point has been on the east side of the storm, meaning there is a greater threat for severe weather in the southern part of Brevard compared to the northern sections on this forecast track. If you're willing to try another intensity forecast, while over the ocean, Fay is expected to strengthen to a Cat 1 hurricane.

Radar estimated precip totals are around 4 inches in this area, with more to come. My raingauge naturally failed to work today, but my pool needs to be pumped down a bit, so 4 inches seems about right.

Underwear Day II

2008-08-19T08:44:00.000-04:00

Well, not quite, but not far from it either. With many things closed, and a not so stressful tropical system on the way, today kinda has that snow day feel.

Fay made keyfall at Key West yesterday afternoon, and then arrived ashore near Cape Romano (near Naples) early this morning. Fay never achieved hurricane strength, and maximum winds so far were estimated to be 60 MPH, which also remains the current (8 AM ET) estimated maximum wind speed. Fay was able to organize and strengthen during the day yesterday despite wind shear and dry air, and a circulation center is clearly visible on the Miami radar loop, and is now visible on the Melbourne radar. However, slow weakening over land is expected over the next few days. Fay is moving toward the north-northeast at 9 MPH, and this motion will slow and turn toward the north (left) during the day today. Central pressure is currently 988 mb.

The forecast has been a rather difficult one, prompting more than a few "do you guys know what you're doing?" comments over the last couple days. The forecast calls for Fay to maintain its current heading, which will move the center between Orlando and Melbourne around 2 AM Wednesday. It is forecast to move offshore between Cape Canaveral and Daytona, spend about 24 hours offshore before looping back west and making a third landfall (a statistic not lost on insurance executives) near Jacksonville. This westward loop is caused by high pressure building in from the northeast US; the strength of this high is the forecast question of the day. A weaker high pressure area allows Fay to move farther north away from us. Currently little increase in strength over the Atlantic is expected.

Since we will find ourselves on the eastern half of a landfalling tropical storm, the primary local impacts will be wind, rain, and tornadoes. So far most of the heavy rainbands have remained offshore, but as the center approaches this threat will increase.

Ill-defined Fay slows; forecast remains uncertain

2008-08-18T06:43:00.000-04:00

The problems forecasting a poorly defined tropical storm in weak steering currents are on full display with Fay this morning. During the day yesterday, Fay slowed her forward speed and began the turn to the north. Currently located inland over central Cuba, Fay is moving toward the north-northwest at 12 MPH and has maximum sustained winds of 50 MPH. The surface center is not located under all of the convection seen on satellite, nor is it located under the swirl apparent on the radar from Key West. The system is tilted: the upper level circulations are found north and east of the surface circulation. Tropical systems usually aren't tilted, so it would seem it might need to get the core stacked back together before any explosive development occurs.

The north-northwest motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours with a gradual turn toward the north expected Tuesday. Fay has reached the western extent of the high pressure ridge that has been located to it's north for the last few days. Keep in mind that these types of weak systems don't make a nice smooth turn as you watch short-term radar and satellite loops, but will instead jog a little bit one way, then back another. The long-term motion appears much smoother than it does in the short term.

The forecast remains in agreement for the first, oh, 48 hours or so, taking Fay inland somewhere between Tampa and Ft Myers and bending a little toward the north east after that. Landfall is expected during the afternoon Tuesday, which is a little slower than previously expected. The official forecast is to the right (east) of the model consensus during this period.

Beyond that, the models at times have unfortunately provided more entertainment value than forecast value. This is because they are hinting that another ridge developing northeast of Florida later in the week, effectively blocking Fay's path to the north. We've even got one model solution that predicts three landfalls in Florida during the week: one on the southwest coast emerging into the Atlantic, Fay then turns west and makes a second landfall along the east central coast, proceeds across the state and makes a final landfall on the Panhandle. Point here is that the long term forecast continues to have more uncertainty than usual, and there is an outside chance we'll be watching Fay for another week.

The intensity forecast is likewise uncertain, though we do understand a few things here. The system is currently over land and is poorly defined, so not much will happen there. Fay will probably become a Cat 1 hurricane prior to landfall as it moves north over warm water, but probably not much stronger than that.

The Hurricane Center is making more noise than usual about its "don't follow the thin black line, look at the wind swath" mantra, which, of course, is correct. We've seen over the last few days that small changes in the forecast models are reflected in somewhat big changes in the track (the thin black line), but really don't change the windspeed forecasts very much. At the end of the day, we're worried about wind and storm damage, not if the storm center passes over us. For now, we have about a 50% chance of tropical storm force winds, 10-20% chance of 58 MPH winds, and less than 10% change of hurricane force winds.

At 5 AM this morning, a TS watch was issued for the east coast from Jupiter to Sebastian. I suspect that will also be issued for Brevard later today. A TS warning is in effect for Jupiter south to the Keys this morning. At this point it's unclear when additional warnings will be issued for our area.

Along the Gulf Coast

2008-08-17T08:14:00.003-04:00

The track of TS Fay has come into somewhat better focus over the last day. There remains a fair bit of uncertainty, but for now it appears the threat to our neck of the swamp is a little less compared to this time yesterday.

At 8 AM Sunday, Fay was a tropical storm with max winds of 50 MPH located along the southern coast of Cuba. Movement is to the west-northwest at 13 MPH. Aircraft are sampling the storm, but since the center is rather close to land, sampling the center is difficult.

The forecast calls for Fay to slow its forward speed and begin a turn toward the northwest during the day today as the western flank of the high pressure ridge to the north (over FL) erodes. Obviously where this turn begins has implications for Florida. The current NHC forecast has the turn occurring such that Fay essentially crosses Key West. An earlier or sharper turn brings the storm closer to us, however on this track Fay would spend less time over water, so a relatively weaker storm would result. If the turn occurs farther west, the track would also be farther west, but Fay would probably be a stronger storm resulting from more time over water.

The forecast model solution envelope does have some reliable models tracking Fay along the eastern side of Florida. Keep in mind that the typical track errors for these models make a rather large difference as to whether the storm heads up the eastern or western side of the state. There are some models that are also west of the official forecast, and we've got a couple "ghost of Charlie" solutions moving Fay northeast across the state, entering around Ft Myers and exiting north of Daytona. Fay is expected to be weaker than Charlie, so while the tracks might end up similar, the impacts of Fay should be less. The official forecast has Fay turning soon, so we should have an idea sometime today how the forecast is evolving.

Watches and warnings have been issued for Florida this morning. Mandatory evacuation of visitors from the Keys begins this morning. On the east coast, TS watches are in effect as far north as Jupiter. As time goes on, these will likely be extended north into our area, however the type of warning remains an open question. If a hurricane warning is issued for this area, you can expect all of the typical actions (evacuations, causeway and school closings). If Fay follows the forecast, I'm not sure a hurricane warning will be needed, however, with the unexpected right-turn of Charley relatively fresh in everyone's mind, I expect one will be issued following the "better safe than sorry" paradigm. Of course, if that Charlie-like across the state track (in near Ft Myers, out at Daytona) verifies, then those warnings would be more likely.

Still uncertain

2008-08-16T09:12:00.000-04:00

As you've no doubt heard by now, yesterday the Hurricane Center finally found a closed circulation and classified the wave as "Fay". Unfortunately, it appears it will be at least another day before we're even a little certain where she'll go.

This morning, the center remains hard to find, as the storm is located somewhere over Hispaniola. Hispaniola is the most rugged of the Greater Antilles and has a well-earned reputation for disrupting well established tropical cyclones. Despite the impressive satellite presentation, Fay doesn't qualify (yet) as well established. As such, complete destruction isn't expected and, in fact, one might be able to argue the center is reforming to the south of the island.

Of course, what everyone wants (needs?) to know concerns the future track. Currently the storm is steered to the west by a ridge of high pressure to the north over Florida. Fay is expected to move around the western edge of this ridge over the next 5 days, making the evolution of this ridge rather important. On Friday, the general model consensus was for a track in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and landfall in the panhandle area. There is a hint the models early this morning have shifted eastward, bringing the storm over Florida on a Charlie (2004) type path. If Fay remains south of the official track, I think that would argue for the western solution rather than the eastern solution. At this point, model solutions are much like focusing a camera (for those that remember the days before auto focus cameras). It just might take another day to get the focus right.

By now most of you have figured out that if we have little confidence in the track forecast, then we really have no idea how strong it'll get. Fay still needs to deal with landmass interactions (Cuba) however, the wind shear is low and the water temperatures resemble bathwater, so strengthening is forecast once Fay finds itself over open waters. The longer Fay remains over water allow additional strengthening. In this case, a Gulf/panhandle track would probably result in a stronger hurricane (possibly cat 4) compared to some (not all) of the east coast of Florida tracks where the storm wouldn't be over the water as much.