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Objectivist Round up

2012-01-19T09:04:00.001-06:00

Welcome to the January 19, 2012 edition of Objectivist Round-up.

Objectivism is a philosophy for living on this earth. For me, that is especially poignant because my grandfather passed away yesterday. He was a good man who valued his family and treated them accordingly. A story I heard at my grandmother's funeral (his wife for over 60 years) shows the character of this man. Please indulge me while I tell it. On a family vacation many years ago, my grandma, grandpa, dad, and uncles were traveling through Florida and enjoying the warm weather. My grandma, the always cheerful, caring woman, had one desire on that vacation - to see the sun rise over a particular bridge in Florida. My grandpa, the matter of fact, focused, purposeful man that he was, wanted to get on the road and driving to the next location as soon as possible. He packed the car and loaded everyone up at 5 AM, well before sunrise and took off - driving over the bridge where my grandma wanted to watch the sun come up. As they were nearing the end of the bridge, my grandma was in tears, afraid she was going to miss this one sight she had dreamed of seeing. My grandpa, seeing her crushed, pulled over to the side of the road and waited for over an hour for the sun to come up. In spite of his desire to hit the road, he could not stand to see the person he loved most in such pain. This love was evident throughout their marriage.

When I think of this story, it reminds me of the importance of maintaining a rational selfishness - of recognizing your highest values and acting accordingly. It reminds me of staying true to reality, and not pretend that the person sitting next to you is not crying, when in fact they are. It reminds me love requires the best within us. In short, it reminds me of why I am an Objectivist. I will miss him.

I don't wish to usurp the round-up, so here are other great stories and articles by Objectivists. Read, enjoy, and find that inspiration to be the best that you can be.

Jim Woods presents An Open Letter to Gary Johnson, Libertard for President posted at Words by Woods, saying, "Based upon C-SPAN's series "The Contenders", how can a flawed candidate without a chance of being elected run a campaign that could be historically significant?"

Darius Cooper presents Are Americans spendthrifts? posted at Practice Good Theory, saying, "I look at America's personal savings rate"

Paul Hsieh presents Why Is Creating Value Good, But Profits Bad? posted at We Stand FIRM, saying, "My latest OpEd at RealClearMarkets discusses the morality of making a profit. In a free society, "creating value" and "making a profit" are just two sides of the same coin!"

Rachel Miner presents Trustee from the Toolroom Review posted at The Playful Spirit, saying, "A delightful book which I read after seeing Yaron Brook's recommendation. I share some thoughts that may spur you to give it a try."

Ari Armstrong presents Gary Johnson Can't Save the Libertarian Party posted at Free Colorado, saying, "Gary Johnson can't advance the cause of liberty while running with the Libertarian Party."

Diana Hsieh presents Video: SOPA and Online Piracy posted at NoodleFood, saying, "The "SOPA" and "PIPA" bills currently under consideration would threaten every web site with shut-down, if that web site contains so much as a single link to copyrighted material anywhere. These bills, if passed, would break the fundamental architecture of the internet, and enable Chinese-style censorship of the internet. Watch my webcast discussion, then call and e-mail your representatives!"

Jason Stotts presents The Logical Necessity of the Oxford Comma posted at Erosophia, saying, "The Oxford Comma is not only stylistically necessary, it is logically necessary and its absence can lead to absurdities."

I present SMART Goals and Philosophy posted here, saying, "Objectivism is a philosophy for living, so it should come as little surprise that some industry best practices in goal setting align with Objectivism's ethics and epistemology. See how."

That concludes this edition. Submit your blog article to the next edition of objectivist round up using our carnival submission form. Past posts and future hosts can be found on our blog carnival index page.

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SMART goals and philosophy

2012-01-17T08:00:00.000-06:00

It's funny how, sometimes, industry best practices align so nicely with Objectivism. Take goal-setting. Based on what I understand about Objectivism, I would suspect that an ideal approach would be setting goals that are based on your values, that are clearly identified, that are objectively defined, and do not contradict reality. How does Objectivism relate industry best standards for goal-setting - to create SMART goals (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant, Time-bound)? Below, I discuss specific quotes from Rand that relate to these best practices.

Any mistakes in this application belong to me and not to Rand. I'm open to the fact that I might have screwed up, so please help me fix any errors or misunderstandings.

Specific:
Goals implicitly assume that something is changing. They are changing from one point to another. Those points can be identified. What has Rand said about change?

"They proclaim that there is no law of identity, that nothing exists but change, and blank out the fact that change presupposes the concepts of what changes, from what and to what, that without the law of identity no such concept as“change” is possible."

My take: Epistemologically, identity proceeds change. Is the reverse true? Do man-made changes depend on conceptual identification. Not necessarily. Then again, what exactly are you changing into. If the point of a goal is to induce change in a certain direction, then we have to know in what direction we are going. Otherwise, we will only change randomly in any direction. Based on this fact, if I want to induce change in some direction, I need to clearly identify and specify the end point. The clearer I can identify that end point, the more focused my actions can be to induce the necessary change.

Measurable:
When setting goals, you are dealing with reality.

"When it comes to applying his knowledge, man decides what he chooses to do, according to what he has learned, remembering that the basic principle of rational action in all aspects of human existence, is: “Nature, to be commanded, must be obeyed.” This means that man does not create reality and can achieve his values only by making his decisions consonant with the facts of reality."

Goals must relate to the facts of reality. This requires objectivity.

"Objectivity begins with the realization that man (including his every attribute and faculty, including his consciousness) is an entity of a specific nature who must act accordingly; that there is no escape from the law of identity, neither in the universe with which he deals nor in the working of his own consciousness, and if he is to acquire knowledge of the first, he must discover the proper method of using the second; that there is no room for the arbitrary in any activity of man, least of all in his method of cognition—and just as he has learned to be guided by objective criteria in making his physical tools, so he must be guided by objective criteria in forming his tools of cognition: his concepts."

How do we determine the specific nature of reality? Measurement.

"Measurement is the identification of a relationship—a quantitative relationship established by means of a standard that serves as a unit. Entities (and their actions) are measured by their attributes (length, weight, velocity, etc.) and the standard of measurement is a concretely specified unit representing the appropriate attribute. Thus, one measures length in inches, feet and miles—weight in pounds—velocity by means of a given distance traversed in a given time, etc."

My take: From the section on specificity, we see that we must identify the relationship between where we are now and where we want to be. This identification requires objectivity in defining the relationship, with direct reference to reality. This relationship is measurable. While the measurement may be difficult to evaluate, it exists and should be used to verify progress towards a goal. The measurements should not be arbitrary, but correspond to the necessary conditions of the goal. This also means that if a goal is not measurable, chances are it has not been objectively defined. Setting a goal to be a "good reader" is too vague. What does it mean to be a "good reader"? The practical effect of non-measurable goals is an inability to track progress.

While I wouldn't consider measurability an absolute necessity, the process of identifying a measurement focuses the mind on specifying the goal objectively.

Attainable:
The point of goals is that they are something you are working toward. If it is not attainable, then how can you work toward it? While the purpose of this goal setting practice is primarily psychologically focused, it also has philosophic implications.

"The Law of Identity (A is A) is a rational man’s paramount consideration in the process of determining his interests. He knows that the contradictory is the impossible, that a contradiction cannot be achieved in reality and that the attempt to achieve it can lead only to disaster and destruction. Therefore, he does not permit himself to hold contradictory values, to pursue contradictory goals, or to imagine that the pursuit of a contradiction can ever be to his interest."

My take: Contradictions kill goals in their tracks. As Rand notes, pursuing contradictory goals will end in failure. Goals can also contradict reality, including the reality of who you are and your access to resources. For example, I could set a goal be a billionaire by next Christmas. While not meta-physically impossible, the facts about my skills and knowledge contradict the necessities for completing the goal (at least at the present time). But note, I can improve my skills and knowledge and so as to bring the attainability of that goal closer in subsequent years.

There is also a far amount of research that shows that setting goals that slightly stretch your abilities leads to the best results. In other words, pick goals that are attainable with slightly more effort than you think you have.

Relevant:
Goals implicitly identify what's important to an individual.

"The key concept, in the formation of a sense of life, is the term“important.” It is a concept that belongs to the realm of values, since it implies an answer to the question: Important—to whom? Yet its meaning is different from that of moral values. “Important” does not necessarily mean“good.” It means “a quality, character or standing such as to entitle to attention or consideration” (The American College Dictionary). What, in a fundamental sense, is entitled to one’s attention or consideration? Reality."

She goes on to say:

“Important”—in its essential meaning, as distinguished from its more limited and superficial uses—is a metaphysical term. It pertains to that aspect of metaphysics which serves as a bridge between metaphysics and ethics: to a fundamental view of man’s nature. That view involves the answers to such questions as whether the universe is knowable or not, whether man has the power of choice or not, whether he can achieve his goals in life or not. The answers to such questions are “metaphysical value-judgments,” since they form the base of ethics."

Rand makes clear that the base of ethics is not some arbitrary, subjective notion, but based on the facts of reality.

“There is only one fundamental alternative in the universe: existence or nonexistence—and it pertains to a single class of entities: to living organisms. The existence of inanimate matter is unconditional, the existence of life is not: it depends on a specific course of action. Matter is indestructible, it changes its forms, but it cannot cease to exist. It is only a living organism that faces a constant alternative: the issue of life or death. Life is a process of self-sustaining and self-generated action. If an organism fails in that action, it dies; its chemical elements remain, but its life goes out of existence. It is only the concept of ‘Life’that makes the concept of ‘Value’ possible. It is only to a living entity that things can be good or evil.”

My take: When it comes to goals, Objectivism clearly concludes that goals should not only be relevant in general, but relevant to our own life. For examples, when I identified my 5 year goals, I made sure they were relevant to my situation and were the most meaningful. This is the only life I have, so I should make the most of it. Goals direct the self-sustaining and self-generated action. If however, your goals contradict the necessities of life, they will harm your ability to survive. A goal to see how much poison I can drink without dying is just stupid on its face. Equally stupid might be a goal to see how much beer I can drink in one night. In a business, a relevant professional goal would be one that corresponds with the corporate strategy (is important). It becomes a win-win solution for both the individual and the organization.

Time-bound:
Change implies something occurring over time. Here Rand has the least to say other than to acknowledge the role of time in achieving values.

"Since a value is that which one acts to gain and/or keep, and the amount of possible action is limited by the duration of one’s lifespan, it is a part of one’s life that one invests in everything one values. The years, months, days or hours of thought, of interest, of action devoted to a value are the currency with which one pays for the enjoyment one receives from it."

And in the realm of productivity:

"Agriculture is the first step toward civilization, because it requires a significant advance in men’s conceptual development: it requires that they grasp two cardinal concepts which the perceptual, concrete-bound mentality of the hunters could not grasp fully: time and savings. Once you grasp these, you have grasped the three essentials of human survival: time-savings-production. You have grasped the fact that production is not a matter confined to the immediate moment, but a continuous process, and that production is fueled by previous production. The concept of “stock seed” unites the three essentials and applies not merely to agriculture, but much, much more widely: to all forms of productive work."

My take: It takes time to be productive and work towards one's goals. And given our limited time alive, we should choose those goals carefully. While time is just another "measure" and should be included with the measurable section above, without it, we wouldn't get the cool acronym SMART.

Conclusion:
While Rand had little to say specifically about goal-setting, I would imagine she would find these industry best practices to be congruent with her philosophy. Choose goals with the most relevance to our long term happiness. Choose goals that we can attain and do not contradict our other goals, nor reality. Choose goals that are measurable, to ensure objectivity, and choose goals that are specific, to ensure identity. Do these things to create SMART goals and you will be well on your way to a happy, successful life.

Tenacity in Goal Pursuit

2012-01-10T11:14:00.002-06:00

I just finished watching this great video on how to tenaciously pursue difficult goals.

There is really little have I have to add to what Dr. Hsieh mentions, except perhaps to expand on one of her suggestions - the usefulness of sharing your goals with others. Amongst many entrepreneurs and business owners, the concept of a master mind group essentially performs the same purpose. I don't like the name, but the concept is sound and I have been using it myself over the past year. Essentially, in a master mind group, you gather together a group of 2-5 individuals with similar goals and regularly discuss progress towards those goals. It informally creates a system of accountability. There have been months where, before we met, I start feeling rather sheepish because I did not complete the goals I had set for myself. Knowing that I was to meet and discuss my failure prompted me to get my butt in gear and actively work in ernest.

I really liked her disclaimer at the beginning though, about how tenacity is important, but only if you have the right goals. Tenacity toward bad goals is still bad. One of the reasons I have written so much about goal setting is because I realize just how important the selection of goals is to a happy, successful life.

When goals flounder - review your Central Purpose

2012-01-04T10:12:00.000-06:00

This past week, I've been avoiding a thorough review of my goals as I had a sneaky suspicion that I had failed at a number of them. That seemed debilitating and counter-productive. But as I forced myself to start writing this post, I began to realize just how much I had accomplished and more importantly, I came to realize that most of the failed goals floundered because I had not stayed true to myself. In the end, I had a major revelation. By confronting my anxiety, I destroyed it.

Last January, I had 3 major goals that were in part contingent on a number of factors. One of course was the pending job candidacy with ECU. As to those three goals, all were accomplished.

After our move to North Carolina, I re-wrote my year end goals (why? I'm not quite sure.) A number of those goals I did not accomplish. It left me wondering why not. Had I lost my mo-jo? Were the goals unrealistic? Was I not motivated to accomplish them? The truth is mostly the latter in part because I have been misleading myself away from my central purpose in life (CPL).

After numerous talks with some friends of mine, I have been re-conceptualizing the direction of my career to integrate my research, teaching, consulting, service, blog writing, and potential business ventures. Until just about 30 minutes ago, I had been considering two different directions, each of which seemed plausible for establishing that integration. I thought that by focusing on one of those two directions, I could stay true to my CPL. I was wrong! My original CPL already established the direction - to teach others how to make better decisions, specifically in designing, building, maintaining, and using information systems. Today, I see no reason to pick one of the two different directions. The goals I was failing were all connected with choosing between these two directions. I need to web development knowledge in order to make better decisions. I need philosophic knowledge in order to make better decision. I need to understand how habits, information technologies, values, analysis and design techniques, epistemology, rationality, psychology, and productiveness can impact decision making. In short, my CPL already integrates these two passions of mine. Instead of picking one, I just need to remind myself of my ultimate passion - helping others to make better decisions. The rest follows.

So why did I fail at these goals? They failed because they met a mental block. Although crafted with my best intentions, I couldn't find the motivation to pursue them with the passion they deserved. Something just didn't seem right, although I couldn't put my finger on exactly what. The cognitive dissonance I experienced (and hence my failure to act on a number of projects/goals) stemmed from my mismatch between the reality of my CPL and the inappropriate goals I was setting. Contradictions cannot exist. My subconscious identified the contradiction first. It wasn't until today that my consciousness caught up.

So how to move forward? Rather than being frustrated with myself for not accomplishing my goals or falling behind in projects, I need to review all my projects and decide which ones will help me accomplish my CPL best and cut the rest. And that is my very next project!

Publishing to multiple blogs

2012-01-02T11:35:00.001-06:00

I'm looking for some ideas.

In my web development class, I want our students to create their own blog in order to write weekly posts about class topics and in order for manipulation in later assignments. But I would also like those same posts to appear on a separate class blog. The class blog will consolidate all of the individual posts into a centralized location, besides providing additional resources for our students. So I'm trying to discover the best set of technologies for easily setting up this framework.

Requirements:

The class blog already exists as a WordPress custom install. No decision has been made on the student blog platform, but I'm leaning towards Blogger for easy integration with Google AdSense.
The final solution has to be a free and web based.
It has to be easy to set up and use for my students as most of them are not familiar with web publishing yet.
It requires minimal effort on my part.

Ideas I have looked into:

WordPress allows remote publishing with either ATOM or XML-RPC. So the capability should be there for some sort automated solution.
Ping.fm does allow publishing to multiple blogs. The down side is that it does not contain a WYSIWYG editor and may require more set up skills than the students have at this point.
I'm still researching if FeedBurner can accomplish what I want. It may require installation of a widget feed reader on the class blog. Not ideal because of the time it would require of me to setup and maintain.
Microsoft Word has attempted to integrate Blog writing into the software, but I've had difficulties getting it to work with Blogger. I haven't tried it with WordPress. And since Word is not web based, I would prefer to stay away from it.
I could just require students to copy and paste posts in two places. Bad for a number of reasons, not the least of which is the time involved on their part.

Does anyone have any ideas or suggestions?

A Rising Tide at Christmas

2011-12-23T07:58:00.000-06:00

A little bit of positive news comes from economics? Jobless claims failing. Mortgage rates at historic lows. So this Christmas, remember that all those gifts you can afford to give (and get) comes primarily from our improved standard of living. (Yes, even the poor are getting richer).

To get you in the mood this season, take a gander at my Christmas Poem.

Hope you all have a Merry Christmas!

Creating an environment for classroom success, Part 2

2011-12-14T13:21:00.000-06:00

As I stated in my last post, the goal of my web application development class is: To develop sufficient knowledge of web programming and e-commerce concepts to successfully start a career as a web developer.
How can help facilitate success in their careers? There is the obvious knowledge component, which is a major part of my class. However, habits and virtues can make or break the long term success of my students. In this, Rand's ethics provides the perfect basis for developing the habits and virtues necessary.

To be successful, students need to be rational, productive, and proud. Students must actively try to understand and integrate concepts in a meaningful manner so that they can utilize those ideas later in their career. Rationality demands a respect for facts and a strict adherence to logic. Abstract integrative reasoning is necessary to apply knowledge to new situations. Students must also develop the habit of productiveness, consistently developing their knowledge in order to create web solutions to business problems. Productiveness is not just about hard work, although hard work can often help. Productiveness demands a focused effort to produce something of value. Lastly, students should produce work they are proud of. The results of their efforts should be something they want to show off - something they are excited they brought into existence - something that shows the best within them.

Below are some of the things I'm considering in my class to facilitate the adoption of these virtues. I'm always open to new ideas if you have them.

How can I encourage rationality?
1. Eliminate evaluations that depend on rote learning
2. Encourage abstract integrative reasoning with writing assignments
3. Require application of knowledge to real world situations

How can I encourage productivity?
1. Reward output, not time spent
2. Push them to create increasingly higher valued web solutions
3. Motivate them by keeping reality based and addressing real world problems

How can I encourage pride?
1. Give them a chance to fix their mistakes
2. Reward going above and beyond requirements
3. Do not provide a means for hiding in anonymity

While I could also identify Rand's other virtues of Independence, Justice, Integrity, and Honesty, those are often taken for granted in most classroom environments (I know... not all. But most). Those virtues are vitally important to success as well, but not interesting enough for me to write about today.

Creating an environment for classroom success

2011-12-09T11:54:00.001-06:00

In my web applications development class, I have created a goal for my students: to develop sufficient knowledge of web programming and e-commerce concepts to successfully start a career as a web developer.

To achieve expert ability, evidence from many fields suggests that we need at least 10,000 hours of sustained focused practice. Note the wording is sustained focused practice, not just experience or repetition of a skill. Instead, it's conscious practicing toward improvement. Although there are no agreed upon numbers for other levels, I suggest that 100 and 1,000 hours also offer plateaus in ability attainment. At the 1,000 hours of practice, individuals establish their skills in a specialization to be fully productive in most occupations. At the 100 hours of practice, individuals establish skills sufficient for entry level work. By 100 hours, most employees have established the basic vocabulary and conceptual understanding to function within a domain for continued growth. Without that basis, a new employee would be essentially worthless. Some businesses require a new employee to have at least a little experience in this field. Other employers might send new employees to 2-3 week training workshops (which takes approximately 100 hours). My goal is to accomplish that within my class - 100 hours of deliberate practice.

In my class, we meet for 3 hours every week for 15 weeks for a total of 45 hours. That means I need at least 55 more hours in out-of-class activities to reach the 100 hour mark. The classroom activities and homework should integrate to form a complete package driving the development of conceptual understanding and programming skills for web application development.

To make this happen, I plan in class to lecture on e-commerce and web programming skills for 1 1/2 hours per week, provide exercises and lab work for 1 hour per week, and review and discuss class topics an additional 1/2 hour per week. On their own time, students will every week read a chapter in the book for 1 hour, write two blog posts on class concepts in 1-2 hours, and complete web development assignments in roughly 1-3 hours.

To help supplement their education, I will record all of my lectures and make them available online for later referral. I will create short video clips on specific topics that might cause problems or that only a small set of students would be interested in learning. Furthermore, there are numerous free web resources that will be provided to the students. I will also maintain a Twitter feed that I will update with interesting links and commentary about current web development and e-commerce issues.

I have a number of other ideas on how to make this experience awesome, but I'm keeping a few of them under wraps for now. It should be a good semester though and I'm looking forward to it.

Review: Your Brain at Work

2011-11-26T08:31:00.001-06:00

David Rock writes an intriguing review of neuroscience findings on how the human mind works and how we can use that information to help us do a better job at work. While many of the topics it covers might be coined "common sense", there are a few nuggets of new information that add substantially to what we know about work, productivity, and cooperation.

The book is broken up into scenes which tackle a different topic of neuroscience. The technique the author uses to discuss each topic starts with a fictitious couple who struggle with common productivity issues like information overload, procrastination, distractions, uncooperative coworkers, etc. A discussion of the science follows in why these issues are common and how to overcome these limitations. Then, the fictitious story is re-told, except this time the actors avoid the inherit limitations of our brain and instead perform the ideal actions that best take advantage of our brain's strengths. I found this technique great for motivating the reader while concertizing the science into useful practices understandable to everyone.

For me, the first half of the book seemed to re-iterate much of what I already knew about productivity. Such lesson as avoid distractions, stay focused on one subject at a time, break down big decisions into smaller easier to handle decisions, handling uncertainty, etc. are all practices I am aware of and practice. The biggest lessons learned came in the last half of the book discussing how we interact with others. In particular, I was struck by how to effectively deal with other people, especially when they feel threatened or intimidated. When others go into a defensive mode, it is hard to get their cooperation. And here, the science suggests something similar to what I learned from some parenting books of all places (Positive Discipline and Between Parent and Child). In order to build cooperation, we should not direct but collaborate on answers to questions. We should respect others' ability to find answers on their own (sometimes this requires directed questions). If we want to change other people's behavior, we need to get them to see the need to change themselves without putting them on the defensive. Using a stick is often NOT the best method. Nor is using arbitrary rewards.

While there are many other great discussions in the book, I'll leave it up to you to find the rest. I found the book to be a well written, practical guide to improving your productivity at work. By aligning your actions with sciences' best practices, we can achieve high levels of capability to our work. It's a great read for anyone interested in improving their productivity at work.

The tale of two passions

2011-11-10T12:42:00.000-06:00

What should you do when you can't decide between two equally passionate directions for your career? For many of us, there are many things we could do that would make us happy. Sometimes, you can whittle down that list to one or two great passions. Sometimes a great opportunity comes along that diverges from your current career. What happens when you cannot decide between your two highest passions. Should you do both? Unfortunately, splitting your efforts between two careers usually ends up with failure in both. The more directed and focused you can be in your career, the greater success you will reach along with a deeper happiness from a job well done. So, how can one decide? Here is I dealt with this issue.

First the background. For a while now, I have struggled with deciding between two different career tracks. I attempted to integrate those passions in my career as an academic, but I am still drawn to specializing in one or the other. Both passions fall in line with my central purpose in life. Both passions have long-term viability in my career as an academic. Both have potential for a consulting/expert business beyond academy. The first of these passions is to think, write, and educate about making decisions using applied philosophy, particularly extending Objectivism's moral and epistemological foundations. The second passion is to think, write, and educate about making decisions for developing a web presence, particularly with emerging web technologies. I have tried, unsuccessfully, for the past couple months to decide which career tracks offers the most potential happiness and financial gain.

Here is how I propose to deal with this dilemma.

For a short time, I will do both - equally. I will set up two dueling frameworks. Two blogs, two twitter accounts, and two facebook pages interconnected so that I can hit maximum exposure of my ideas with minimal effort. I will then set up dual marketing schemes, targeted at the appropriate audiences. Then I will proceed to blog once a week in each framework and post status updates/ micro-blog 5 times a week for one month. At the end of the first month, I will evaluate three things for both passions 1. market response 2. difficulty in finding and writing content and 3. how much did I enjoy the process. The last of which being the most important. If there is no clear winner after the first month, I will continue for a second month and re-evaluate again - perhaps even a third and fourth month, if needed. I need to convenience myself which career track focus will create the greatest enduring value for me. The other passion will be regulated to a hobby.

While I am in a unique position to try both career tracks simultaneously, not everyone has that luxury. In cases where decisions have to made quickly (as in the case of once in a lifetime opportunities that expire in a few days), developing a weighted average matrix might help. Essentially, that is what I'm doing, but collecting real data rather than just estimates. In a weighted average matrix, you first identify the most important criteria to be used in your decision. If you were buying a house, you might identify criteria such as size, location, layout, etc. Then, for each criteria, you provide a weight as to how important that criteria is compared to the other criteria. Size might be 50% of your decision, location might be 25%, layout might be 10% and so on. After you have thought through how important each criteria is, you look at each option and measure how well it meets each criteria. When exact measures cannot be found, best guess estimates have to suffice. You put these measurements into a matrix and calculate the weighted average. The option with the highest score is the winner.

When is debt, not really debt?

2011-11-06T08:19:00.002-06:00

When is debt, not really debt? When other people pay for it... voluntarily.
That's the case I'm in right now. A few months ago, I was in a quandary. Our family was moving out of state and we wanted to sell our house. Unfortunately, we could not find any buyers willing to pay the amount of money equivalent to our outstanding mortgage. We couldn't even find buyers willing to pay $20,000 less than the amount of our outstanding mortgage. Our choices were getting slim until we realized that with that debt, came an asset. An asset we could leverage to pay off that debt. So we did a simple thing, we found someone else to pay off our debt in exchange for their use of our asset (commonly called renting). Of course we are dependent on a few things for this gamble to succeed. First, we needed to find and keep good renters. Given the number of foreclosures in southeast Michigan, there are many families who do not have the credit to buy a home in the near future. Our first tenants seemed ideal. An established middle-aged couple, one of whom is an executive in a small company, the other of which loves yard work. They decided to walk away from a $400,000 mortgage and rent for a few years. With a two year lease, we should have some stability in payments and they will have a home they can afford and enjoy. Win-win!
The second thing we were counting on is that the housing market in our area would turn around, or at least stabilize from the plummet it was in for the past 5 years. There was evidence back in June that Michigan had started a significant recovery and that evidence is looking stronger today. As Bloomberg states: "Michigan’s economy is recovering from the recession at the second-fastest pace in the U.S..." They further state: "Mortgage delinquencies dropped at the fourth-fastest pace in the U.S., and personal income and employment growth ranked in the top third, according to data compiled by Bloomberg." Granted, Michgian was at the bottom in terms of impact of the recession, but its recovery is solid and (hopefully) lasting. With more jobs comes greater demand for housing and hopefully increasing prices.
Even if the housing prices do not bounce back, the rent from our tenants will pay off the principle on our mortgage, so that in 5 or 10 years, the principle will decrease to a point where paying off the loan will not put us in the red. If the housing market does bounce back, we may be fortunate enough to walk away with some capital to invest in larger cash flow investments.
So while we do have significant debt, it is not debt that negatively impacts our personal financial picture. As Robert Kiyosaki, of Rich Dad, Poor Dad fame, would say, this is how the rich get rich. The rich have other people pay for their debt, but they do so in a mutually beneficial relationship leveraging their assets where everybody wins.

Reshoring and Schiff

2011-11-04T20:38:00.000-05:00

This news seems to contradict Peter Schiff's claim that America has lost its manufacturing ability.

DETROIT NEWS -- "A Royal Oak bead company expects to double its sales and bring jewelry manufacturing business back to America through a partnership with a design and manufacturing firm in Grand Rapids. Collegiate Bead Co., a 2-year-old manufacturer of licensed college and sorority beads and other collegiate jewelry, has joined with Terryberry LLC to bring the jewelry to market and expand its product line. After manufacturing in China for a year, Collegiate Bead founder Dave Schowalter decided to bring the manufacturing back to Michigan. The move goes against the outsourcing trend — something Burroughs Payment Systems Inc. in Plymouth also bucked a year ago, when it decided to locate six customer service representatives in Michigan after initially moving the work to India."

HT: Carpe Diem

Steam boats 'r' us

2011-10-30T03:55:00.000-05:00

Yesterday, I had the crazy idea of making a steam boat with my kids. It all started the night before, when I told my two boys a bedtime story about James Watt and his invention of the steam engine. I thought it would be cool if they could see a real working steam engine. Even better - if they could build one themselves. Well, I discovered that with a little work and perseverance I could build one and they could enjoy watching it run.

Around 9:30 this morning, I found this great set of instructions online. And by great, I mean so super awesome, that I can't say enough about how useful they were. There are written instructions, video instructions, printable cut outs, history lessons, and more. The instructions were so well done that I made a working putt-putt boat on my first try! Since this was supposed to be a project with the kids, I rounded up my three little ones and dragged them to 3 different stores to find all the materials. The materials weren't that expensive, especially since some of the things could have been recycled - soda cans, soda bottles, and orange juice boxes (I didn't have any of those handy so I bought some soda and orange juice which were enjoyed later). Other things you need around the house - scissors, epoxy, hot glue gun, ruler, marker, small candle (either birthday or tea candles will do), a stick for spreading epoxy, and straws.

After lunch we set to work. I downed a can of diet Dr. Pepper so that we could build the engine. After lots of cutting, folding, and gluing, we finally had a working aluminum engine. My two eldest kids (6 and 4 years old) helped for the first hour or so, but wandered off after they realized it was going to take a long time. And as much as I wanted them to participate, I also recognized that most of the steps required skills beyond their capabilities (but then again, I've under estimated their skills before). Now that I know the steps, I would be more comfortable helping them complete their own engines next time.

The technology behind a putt-putt engine is pretty simple. Essentially, it's a steam engine. As the water heats up inside the metal engine, it turns to steam. The pressure from the steam becomes so intense that eventually a bubble is forced down the straw and out the back of the boat, pushing the boat forward. When the bubble escapes, cool water rushes back in providing fresh material heating material for more steam. Since the water flowing out is moving faster than the water flowing back in, the boat moves forward. The "putting" or "popping" noise comes from the expansion and contraction of the flat aluminum side as the steam expands and contracts. There are silent versions of this engine using coiled copper tubes, but I could not find the right sized tubes at Lowes. Maybe next time.

As you can see from this video, the kids loved watching it run.

Just another fun activity dads can do with their kids!

Confirmation bias

2011-10-28T12:55:00.000-05:00

Recently, I read an article about confirmation bias that made me realize that this is major impediment to being productive. So, what is confirmation bias? According to Science Daily, confirmation bias is "a type of cognitive bias and represents an error of inductive inference toward confirmation of the hypothesis under study." Wikipedia lists some of the traits of confirmation bias to be:

Interpretation - When giving evidence both for and against your belief, the bias tends to focus only on the evidence for your belief and ignore evidence against your belief
Search for information - You seek evidence from someone you know agrees with you and do not seek evidence from those that disagree with you.
Memory - you tend to remember evidence that supports your argument and forget evidence that contradicts your position

Let's unpack this concept. Confirmation bias seems to be misappropriation of evidence, leading to incorrect inductions. Most often, confirmation bias is an automatic response. These automatic responses are based on heuristics. People use heuristics (rules of thumb) to quickly make evaluations. Without heuristics, we would never have time to make all the decision necessary in our lives. We would spend all of our time re-hashing the same evidence, the same logical steps, and the same conclusions. Where heuristics go wrong is when they are applied to emotionally charged ideas. The pain at looking at contrary evidence leads many individuals to ignore that evidence in favor of positive evidence that confirms our original ideas. Individuals do not like dissonance in their thoughts. They want certainty. Unfortunately, that certainty comes at the expense of objectivity, leading to ill founded beliefs.

There are two times confirmation bias can be observed, when you first develop an idea and when you are presented with new evidence that contradicts one of your existing ideas. If confirmation bias can be avoided in the former, the easier it will be managed in the latter. However, many people, myself included, have adopted ideas without fully evaluating all the evidence for and against when initially presented to them. Young kids are particularly susceptible. This may require re-evaluation of ideas that were once closely held. I have done this before when I reevaluated my belief in God and my interaction with The Objectivist Center, both of which led me to reject my earlier decisions based on new evidence.

Fortunately, there is a way to avoid confirmation bias - scientific inductive reasoning. Two principle techniques to scientific reasoning are establishing reliability and validity. Validity can be further sub-divided into both internal and external validity. So how can these be employed to avoid confirmation bias?

1. For evidence to be reliable, new evidence should confirm older evidence. If it contradicts it, chances are something fishy is going on or evidence is not being placed within its appropriate context. Seek evidence from multiple, disparate sources, particularly in emotionally driven complex issues. In highly controversial issues, its especially important to gather evidence from sources, both pro and con, and place that evidence within their proper context.
2. Internal validity looks at the internal logic of an argument. Ask yourself if the evidence presented shows only part of the picture. Ask yourself if you have fully considered ALL of the evidence. Ask yourself if the conclusions are as solid as claimed. It may help to break up the argument into all of its component parts and verify that evidence supports each part. In short, play "devil's advocate" to establish internal validity.
3. External validity verifies an idea is consistent with the wider context of one's knowledge base. Ask yourself if this conclusion is true, what does it mean for other ideas. Ask yourself honestly what the evidence means for my life. The conclusion from the evidence should integrate with knowledge you already have without contradictions. If it doesn't, either something is wrong with your new conclusion or something is wrong with your existing ideas.

By employing these methods consistently, you can avoid confirmation bias. Take a step back from the emotional charged idea and be objective. If you do this, you have a good chance at avoiding confirmation bias and achieving objectivity in your thoughts.

Thinking Your Way to Productivity

2011-10-20T10:47:00.001-05:00

The popularity of Getting Things Done (GTD) system may have as much to do with its focus on efficient thinking as anything else. The breakdown of conscious, slow, deliberate thinking is paired with subconcious, fast, inspirational thinking such that each process is performed at diffferent times and with different goals. But when done in the proper order, leads to effective results. The steps in GTD bare a striking resemblance to how Ayn Rand described the most efficient writing process in The Art of Nonfiction. She broke up the steps to writing into clear functional processes that best utilize your conscious and subconscious thinking. Brainstorming what to write about is largely a subconscious and emotionally driven process. Once a topic is decided, the conscious process begins with writing the outline. Once the outline is completely thought out, Rand recommends letting the subconscious process take over while writing the content of the article, letting words flow from your mind on to the page without limiting yourself. Lastly, Rand recommends a thorough edit, reverting back to a fully conscious process.

In many ways, the steps in GTD are similar. David Allen recommends breaking your thinking up into descrete steps such that conscious and subconscious processes are in full effect at appropriate times.
While filling your inbox throughout the day, you are letting any brainstorm or inspirational idea that strikes you be saved for further review. This process is subconcious oriented. In fact, Allen strongly suggests spending zero time consciously thinking about the ideas - at that time. Then, once or twice a day, Allen recommends you clear your inbox by engaging your conscious thinking - considering what to do each and every item in the inbox, identifying how to classify each item, breaking down projects into sub-tasks, and evaluating next action items. The rest of the day is then spent performing tasks, which if fully thought through, should become more subconscious oriented where inspiration and flow drive your actions. That's not to say all of your actions should be fully subconscious or emotionally driven, as there will likely be many times when completing tasks will require thoughtful, conscious engagement. But by breaking projects into next action items, it is possible to fly through each action item with less deep concentration and fewer distractions because some of that thought has already been accomplished. Lastly, Allen recommends a periodic review, which again engages the conscious process to evaluate whether you are still on track (or not) with your long term goals.

It would be interesting to discover if there are more similiarities between productive achievement and the deliberate usage of different thinking processes that best take advantage of each process's strengths and avoid each process's weaknesses.

Crash Proof 2.0 review

2011-10-08T20:34:00.000-05:00

I recently finished reading Peter Schiff's Crash Proof 2.0: How to Profit From the Economic Collapse. In it, Schiff makes a prediction - in the next few years, the US dollar will experience a significant drop in value. He makes this prediction based on huge trade imbalances and insurmountable governmental debt. This debt bubble will eventually collapse causing a massive drop in the dollar's value, massive inflation, and possibly a full out depression in the United States.

Now usually, I don't buy into these dooms day predictions. However, there are several things about Schiff that made me pay attention. First, he correctly predicted the housing bubble in 2006 when most other pundits were claiming a new era of prosperity. In the first version of his book Crash Proof, published in 2006, he details his reasons why this bubble will burst soon. And burst it did for exactly the reasons he stated. Second, Schiff predicted a rise of gold prices that in 2006 were already at all time highs. Today, gold is almost 3 times higher. Third, Schiff bases his predictions on the solid economic principles of Austrian economics. He does not buy into the Keynsian approach that have shown time and again to be flawed.

So Schiff is certainly someone to take seriously when he makes a prediction about the imminent collapse of the dollar. However, there are a few things that I found unsatisfactory with his overall argument. First, I'm not convinced that the trade imbalance is as big a deal has he claims. For every dollar lost in trade, a similar foreign dollar is invested in our economy. This provides much of the capital he laments is missing from American savings' accounts. I do not see it likely that foreign investors will quickly pull out that money as much of it is tied up in long term investments.

However, the US government debt IS still a major problem. And my understanding of his argument does seem legitimate. My take is basically that with are growing debt, foreign governments are going to starting moving away from the US dollar as a reserve currency due to the danger of default. As foreign governments stop subsidizing our currency, the dollar will start to fall in value. This will encourage other governments to pull out, facilitating a crash. Our Fed may try to buy all those bonds to keep the dollar afloat, but that will directly lead to sharp increases in inflation. As far as this argument goes, I generally agree. Schiff believes this crash to be imminent. But this is my second problem with Schiff's book, it does not convenience me that such a crash will occur soon. He seems to imply that it will occur sometimes in the next 5 years. But why not 10 or 20? That's a huge amount of time in investing. What is it about the near term that he sees this collapse as something I need to be prepared for now. It could greatly impact how I invest.

But probably the best thing about this book is that he gives good solid advice at the end of the book on what to do to make it through this crash in sound financial position. If his predictions hold true, the advice is certainly logical and fuel for thought when considering investing strategies. I know that I am reconsidering my investments to at least partially follow his advice.

GTD Habits

2011-10-03T11:20:00.005-05:00

A friend of mine posted an article recently about the dangers of blaming technology for a failure in your productivity system. In this case, the system is Getting Things Done (GTD). What's more important is establishing the habits of GTD and using technology to supplement those habits. This struck home for me a bit because I found myself recently fiddling with a couple different technology solutions for GTD and not being fully satisified with any of them. I kept telling myself that if I could just find that right tool, everything would be honky-dory. Well, that just isn't true.

After reading about how to integrate GTD with Outlook and OneNote, I have optimized my technology solution as much as I care to for now and want to focus on improving my habits. So here are the habits I'm currently focusing on and specific practices I've identified to help me with them.

Daily habits

Adding to my inbox. Practice - I need to keep OneNote open all the time to help me improve my useage of it. I may also need to start creating items in my OneNote inbox from emails. I'm still struggling with capturing everything here and need to focus more on developing habits for centrally grabbing all thoughts.
Clearing my inbox. Practice - My email inbox I will clear 2-3 times a day. My OneNote inbox will be cleared once a day.

Weekly habits - Perform weekly review every Monday morning

Ensure my week's goals move me toward my month and year goals. Practice - created pages in OneNote for monthly and yearly goals. Created subpages under month goals for each new week.
Ensure that I am making progress on each project. Practice - where I am not waiting for somebody, verify that I have a next action item in the weekly goals

I am adding reminders in Outlook to keep reviewing my progress with these habits.

There are also some habits that I know I will eventually need to improve, but they are lower priority to the ones above. Once the above habits are working and ingrained in my system, I will work on the following issues:

How often should I review "Someday/Maybe" items?
How can I use eletronic references most effectively?
How can I best plan projects within this framework?

With a bit of applied focus, I am confident I can improve these habits and my overall productivity.

Concepts in Learning

2011-09-29T07:59:00.000-05:00

Lately, I've been rereading Ausubel's Educational Psychology (1968). Ausubel's Assimilation Learning Theory offers one of the best descriptions of conceptual learning I have found in education research.

Here's a quote from the book that captures but a small picture of his theory:

"Thus preschool children are likely to classify objects on the basis of nonessential, incidental features, spatial and temporal contiguity, or similarity of action and location. During the elementary-school years, similarity of structure and function becomes a more important classificatory criterion. With advancing age, however, as children approach adolescence and become verbal-directed and freed from dependence on concrete-empirical experience in their conceptualizing operations, categorical classification on the basis of abstract criterial attributes becomes the dominant mode of organizing experience."

The core of his theory is on the dictonomy between meaningful learning and rote learning. An instructor's goal should be to enable students to meaningfully learn class concepts by providing the proper materials in the proper order. What are those necessary preconditions to meaningful learning?

Clear definitions
Must integrate with students' prior knowledge
Must provide relevant examples
Students must be motivated

While I have some disagreements with Ausubel on the particulars of motivation, these four criteria echo statements made by Peikoff in his Philosophy of Education lecture. They also share many similarities to Lisa VanDamme's implimentation at VDA. Objectivists interested in educational and pedagogical theory might find Ausubel's theory a good place to start.

Smart phones - Not just for workouts anymore

2011-09-25T10:46:00.000-05:00

So this is nothing new to everyone with smart phones, but I absolutely love how the phone integrates with every part of my life. Entertainment, productivity, relaxation, communication, shopping, organization, navigation, and - workouts. I found this great app called Endomondo that tracks my GPS position while I go for bike rides (I could use if for any sport if I wanted too). I just start the app, throw the phone in my bike bag, and starting pedaling. Ever few seconds, it plots my position and the length of time it took me to travel to that position so that I have an accurate record of my entire trip. The data is saved to Endomondo's web site so that I can review the trip when complete. It correlates my location with road maps and topographical maps so that I can assess speeds on hills, going around corners, stop lights, and what not.

After my latest ride, I uploaded my workout to Facebook then went inside to review it. I was shocked to discover that my fastest mile was almost 55 minutes after I started. While I remember that mile as being fast, I didn't think it would compete with my first few miles when I was fresh and hitting some higher gears. Its just awesome that I can do this. I wish I had this technology back in college when I was training for triathlons. Of course, I may start training again. And now with tools to get the most out of my workouts!

You gotta love today's technology and our industrial progress.

Destroyer of Edison

2011-09-10T08:13:00.000-05:00

I just finished reading "Wizard of Menlo Park: How Thomas Alva Edison Invented the Modern World" by Randall Stross. And I must say, it was horrible. I must emphatically do not recommend it. The reason - Mr. Stross seems determined throughout the book to tear down Edison, to find every fault (real or imagined) and detail how Edison was not amazing. Instead of reading about how Edison was able to achieve over 1000 patents in his lifetime, you read about how Edison was not a good businessman, not a good husband, not a good father, not a good friend, not a good philanthropist, and not a good employer. You will read about how Edison over promised results, became insufferably conceited, sought after publicity, claimed credit for inventions he didn't create, and made hundreds (if not thousands) of bad decisions. Stross meticulously documents every negative newspaper article printed throughout Edison's lifetime. In every case where there are two possible explanations for Edison's behavior, Stross writes about the most negative one. One has to wonder why Stross would want to write this biography.

What was noticeably absent was a detailed discussion of Edison's genius, of his innovative capacity, of his independence in thought, of his confidence in his own abilities, of his prodigous work ethic, or of his experience creating the world's first industrial laboratory. It wasn't until the last chapter of the book that Stross even discusses the enormous values created from Edison's inventions, spawning several multi-billion dollar industries by the time of Edison's death in the 1930s. But even then, Stross is quick to point out that Edison's net worth was only estimated at $12 million when he died, just in case you were not convinced of Edison's poor business skills.

All-in-all, this anti-hero book should be regulated to obscurity. This destroyer of the greatness in Edison should be trashed and forgotten. I regret the money I spent on it and will post most of this review to Amazon and B&N in hopes that others can avoid the same regret.

So now I am on a search for a biography to cleanse my mind. If anyone knows of a biography about Thomas Edison that is positive and uplifting, I would love to hear about it.

Measuring productivity

2011-09-07T09:19:00.000-05:00

One of my 5 year goals is to improve my productivity by 20%. How will I measure success with this goal? Well, the most obvious place to start is with my other two goals in Research and Instruction excellence.

How to measure research productivity? I could measure the number of publications per year. I can always crank up the number of hours devoted to research. But that does not mean I have increased my productivity. It definitely means I have increased my time commitment, but it must be done at the expense of other values. I consider productivity as output/input, but for me, my input is primarily time, so we can simplify productivity as output/time. To improve productivity, I either have to increase my output in the same amount of time or decrease the time it takes to output the same amount. Output in this case can include both quality and quantity. My options:

I can improve the quality of my research - measured by publications in higher quality journals.
I can improve the quantity of my research - measured by the number of publications.
I can reduce the time it takes to complete my research - measured in the time spent researching.
A combination of all three.

If my current rate of research productivity is 1 average article a year, I can improve that by publishing more often, publishing higher quality articles, or continue my current publishing objective with less time invested. While my university has certain expectations for publishing (at least 5 articles prior to tenure), I am not letting that be my benchmark. Rather, I picked this university because their benchmark coincided with my already selected goals. Up until recently, my thoughts were on improving on the third option, reducing time. However, I came to a realization that the best way to reduce the time was to learn how to write and research better. To do that, I need to consider options one and two as well. So I have started a new research project aimed at a high quality journal. My expectation are that the knowledge and skills learned from working on this project will help me reduce the time necessary for subsequent projects.

Instruction excellence was also an interesting. How should I measure productivity in instruction? For me, the output is similar to research. I can:

I can improve the quality of my instruction - measured with current conceptual understanding and long-term rention.
I can improve the quantity of my instruction - measured with my reach to more students. If I can extend conceptual understanding to more students simultaneously, the more productive my instruction efforts will be.
I can reduce the time to prepare the classroom environment and evaluate results.
A combintation of all three.

How can I measure conceptual understanding? Perhaps the best way is by their ability to write about the concepts, which unfortunately is difficult to track over time and very time consumming. A new possibility, which I have been exploring, is using concept maps. If concepts map evaluation can be automated, that will alleviate a major time hurdle. My focus at this point is on the first, improving quality. However, I am looking at the third optoin as well so as to enable the second.

Division of time management tools

2011-08-25T20:16:00.001-05:00

After much searching, I've come to the conclusion that the system I use for productivity must encompass multiple tools. It just can't be done with anything less. Over the last year, I kept hoping that I would find that one product that could accomplish everything I want in an easy to use package. That just is not going to happen.

Once I came to that realization, I started asking myself what multiple set of tools I can use to stay organized and efficient in getting things done with the least amount of effort. I will need to have at least 2, one for general time management and organization, and one for documents and notes.

After reading a series of posts on using OneNote and Outlook for implementing GTD , and reflecting on my situation, I've become more and more sold on the notion of using these two tools for more fully implementing GTD. I considered using EverNote instead of OneNote. They are both powerful tools and very comparable. However, OneNote has better integration with Outlook. Evernote has better portability to other platforms, but the only non-Windows platform I own is my Android phone, and Evernote did not work very well on that OS. The bigger change for me will be moving back to Outlook after using Google Gmail, Calendar, Contacts, and Tasks for the last few years. Its a difficult considering how many emails, contacts, and calendar items I've accumulated over the that time. My main reason for moving to the Google platform was for the ability to move between computers seamlessly. But with the new tablet PC issued to me by my university, running Windows 7, and fully installed with Microsoft products and Microsoft Live Mesh, I can do my mobile computing and my desktop computing entirely on a Microsoft platform. Considering I have struggled using the Google platform for implementing GTD (not that you can't), and considering the integrative features of the Microsoft products, it may well be worth my time to transition back to Outlook. Heck, I may even use IE again! How crazy is that?

I very much want to implement a system quickly so that I can move forward with being productive and not waste time contemplating, reviewing, and researching tools. That's where the above article comes in so handy. Everything is laid out. I can implement my own few variations, but overall, everything is there for me to start using the same system. The major thing left for me to decide is how best to manage my transition. I may still use gmail for personal email and contacts, since it would be easier than trying to get all 200 of my contacts to change their contact info. But all work related organization and task management will be placed in Outlook and OneNote.

Education bubble? I don't think so.

2011-08-08T10:03:00.000-05:00

As a professor and parent, I read with interest claims about an "education bubble" for some time. I use bubble in quotations, because I am not sure "bubble" is the right word, but I don't have a better one. I see it a lot like medical care - rapidly increasing prices largely created by government interference. ALL previous bubbles that I am aware where in products, commodities, and stocks - things that could be bought and sold. That is not true of education or medical care. Whatever you decide to call it, I do not see a rapid change in either the prices or the attendance in our university system anytime in the near future.

From what I understand of economics, a bubble starts in a speculative environment where something is bought with the express purpose of selling it at a higher price to someone else, rather than for consumption. In some sense education can be seen to fit this pattern, as students speculate that the education they are buying will be worth more than the salary gain they will get for it. And since education is a service, there is no consumption in the traditional sense. But speculation does not a bubble make. Whether using credit or not, students are making a calculation that the value of college is worth the cost of tuition. If that calculation is irrational or without consideration of all the facts, it could lead to a bubble, but I am not convinced that is the case.

What about the demand?

Some sort of post-secondary education is a necessity into today's world. That need will only increase, not decrease with time as more careers require advanced skills. Yes, there some some careers/jobs/business opportunities that do not require that extra education. Those opportunities are becoming fewer and farther in between. Most people realize this, so the demand for post-secondary education will not go away.

What about cost?

College costs are going up faster than inflation, yet the output arguably is not. Government pressures, federal grants, and subsidized loans are all helping drive up the costs (which I believe are huge mistakes for practical and moral reasons) in both private and public programs. That certainly is a problem, but one that won't change unless our government sudden decides to reduce those entitlements. If that stops, certainly demand will lessen, leading to a drop in prices. In fact, a 2009 change in federal education loans directly impacted my last school's enrollment numbers. But that does not seem to be the argument of education bubble claimants. Their argument seems to be that, like the housing bubble, easy credit has created an inflated value of education that in and of itself will pop without a change in government policy.

When I think about this, I ask "What would happen if there was an increase in defaults on educational loans, like there was in home loans? Would this decrease the net present value of a university education?" Not that I can see. This is in part because education is a service, not product. This is a critical difference. Because education cannot be resold (at least not in the traditional sense a product), once provided, it can not be taken away. So one student defaulting on a student loan will not impact other students' value from education. Unlike the housing bubble, where homes in foreclosure drive down the value of all homes, education loans in default will not drive down the value of education to new students entering a university. How one student values education does not impact the value of education to another student. A student who miscalculate the value of their education, taking on more debt than they will be able to repay, directly impacts their own financial situation, but does not directly impact other students who take on dept they can pay back.

As a service, universities essentially certify that their graduates have the initiative, knowledge, and skills necessary to work in a particular area (degree). Students are held accountable to professors for really understanding the material (at least they should be), not just good at memorizing content to pass a certification. Until another system provides that accountability, universities are the only game in town. So we can expect a similar percentage of students going to college in the future as do today, perhaps more. Elite colleges with high tuition, may experience a drop in demand, but given the current extremely high demand to get into those colleges, its doubtful that even a slight drop will effect the prices. More likely, students (and their parents) will start demanding majors with greater returns on their investment. Less liberal arts majors and more professional degrees like engineering, journalism, business, medicine, or law.

Is it possible to provide high quality post-secondary education at a much reduced price? Absolutely. Administration cost in many universities have lots of run for cuts. Technology could also provide a means to reduce the number of professors. I've been working on a solution to the latter myself, as have others. Will it be rapidly adopted? Depends on what you mean by rapid. First you have to prove that a specific innovation really is better. That can take years. Then the proof must be disseminated into the culture. That can take even longer. As of now, the best medium for dissemination is the university system itself. Could a disrupter educational model change the game? In the computer industry, where I work, I see the vast number of certifications available in practically all IT areas. 10 years ago, some people in our industry claimed that you could get jobs with certifications alone. Some did. It promised to be a great disrupter to traditional university education. That promise never came to fruition. Could it eventually? Possibly, but even today, most new IT workers come from the university ranks. I just don't see it changing the cultural expectations of the university experience because certifications are too one dimensional. If change does come, it'll be a slower 10-20 year process, not a quick 1 or 2 year change as a bubble would predict.

Because of all these reasons, I do not think there is an education bubble. I fully expect a shift in the university system during my career, but the nature of the change will be slow. There will not be mass movement away from colleges anytime in the near future, nor will there be a huge drop in prices without some outside influence like a new technology or a change in government policy. It is far too ingrained in our culture for an alternative educational system to rapidly change this approach. Even with increasing costs, there are cheaper community colleges and regional universities that do a fair job at education at prices that are affordable without large loans. If prices do drop, it will be because universities figure out a way to educate larger numbers of students at lower prices and pass those savings on. Perhaps something like the Khan Academy, adopted at the university level (HT to Paul Hsieh for reminding me).

This by no means I endorse all aspects of the current educational system. I, like many of you, see many problems with this system, including the massive increase in tuition. I just don't see a "bubble".

What I learned from Power Rangers

2011-08-05T11:37:00.001-05:00

Over the past couple months, my two oldest kids have been obsessed with Power Rangers. Little did I know, there are over 20 seasons worth of Power Rangers available on Netflix streaming. And my kids are determined to see every last episode. While they have been watching, I have overheard more than I cared to hear, but I've observed a few things about the shows that seem worthy of sharing (in no particular order):

1) Evil really is quite ridiculous.
2) When surrounded by a bunch of bad guys, knowing some kung fu can help you kick their butts!
3) The good is worth fighting for.
4) The battle for good is sometimes a long fight.
5) You don't need a large budget show to impress 4 and 5 year olds.
6) If you misplace your priorities, the good suffers and evil triumphs.
7) Friends are important for fighting evil.
8) It doesn't matter what color your friends are (blue, green, black, pink, etc.).
9) When evil seems larger than life, you can match it with your own larger-than-life tricks (my personal favorite is logic).
10) Mean people suck.

With lessons like these, I have no problems letting my kids watch the show - all 20 seasons of this show.

Vision, I don't need no stinking vision

2011-07-23T08:57:00.002-05:00

Well, yes! Actually I do.

You see, there are many things I want in life. A boat, a $300,000 home, a camper, a mountain retreat, a summer beach house, a new computer, etc. And its not just physical things that I want. I want to live in a land where people respect individual rights, where everyone takes responsibility for their own thoughts and actions, where people are motivated to make the best out of their lives, where my kids are free to become the adults they dream they can be, where my wife and I live happily ever after, etc.

Well, all of these things require a vision of the life that I want. And before I can start acting towards that life, I need to clearly identify what it is I want. Otherwise, my actions could lead me anywhere. How could I tell if a particular thing I'm doing today will help me get the things I want for tomorrow? By what standard? Should I buy a new car or a used car? Do I want broadband Internet access or dial-up? In my free time, should I go camping with my family, read a book on architecture, or write an op-ed for my local newspaper? The answer to these questions all depend on the vision I hold. The clearer my vision, the better I can define my goals. The better I can define my goals, the easier it is to identify the actions necessary to complete those goals and actuate my vision.

Without a clear vision, I could not define my goals. Goals require an awareness in the difference between where I am now and where I want to be. If I don't know where I want to be, I can't define a goal. Without goals, any action is equally valid. No one action can be considered more important than any other. By default, actions without goals tend to gravitate toward short term satisfaction and momentary pleasures. Getting drunk with your friends every weekend. Blowing your paycheck on frivolous entertainment. Extreme adrenaline rushing thrills. While occasional indulgences are useful for relaxing or making life interesting, they should not occupy one's central purpose in life.

So, yes, I do need a vision. Yes, I do need a clear view of the world I want to live in so that I can direct my actions. And yes, I will work toward that vision.