TSUNAMI: Forecasting, Preparedness and Warning

THE TSUNAMI RISK OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, USA

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 04:21:49 -1000

THE EARTHQUAKE OF 28 FEBRUARY 2001 IN THE STATE OF WASHINGTON, U.S. - by Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis

...... Earthquake Epicenter, Origin Time, Magnitude, Aftershocks and Source Mechanism - According to the USGS's National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC), the earthquake had a magnitude of 6.8. Its origin time was 10:54:32 AM Pacific Standard Time (PST) , Wednesday, February 28, 2001 (18:54:32 UTC). It occurred near the Seattle - Tacoma area, with epicenter at 47.2 N 122.7 W, approximately 11 miles ( 20 km) NE of Olympia, 15 miles (24 km) from Tacoma, and 36 miles( 57 km) from Seattle. The epicenter was very near to that of the 7.1 magnitude, April 13, 1949 quake. The focal depth was 52.4 km (32.6 miles). ..........

THE TSUNAMI THREAT IN CALIFORNIA, USA

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 04:21:56 -1000

HISTORICAL TSUNAMIS IN CALIFORNIA: THE TSUNAMI THREAT IN CALIFORNIA - by Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis

In this century, there have been numerous tsunamis generated from distant earthquakes that have reached California. Most recently, tsunamis were observed in 1946, in 1952, in 1957, in 1960, and in 1964. The 1964 tsunami was the most damaging. ......

POTENTIAL FOR TSUNAMI GENERATION ALONG THE KARACHI AND DELTAIC INDUS REGION

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 04:22:03 -1000

POTENTIAL OF TSUNAMI GENERATION ALONG THE MAKRAN SUBDUCTION ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. CASE STUDY: THE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI OF NOVEMBER 28, 1945 - by Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis

Presentation at 3rd Tsunami Symposium of the Tsunami Society May 23-25, 2006, East-West Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii.

............ Reports on the potential for tsunami generation along the Makran coast of Pakistan have been cursory. Based on a thorough review of recent geophysical surveys and seismic data, the present study analyzes the potential tsunami generation mechanisms along the MSZ by reviewing subduction processes of the Oman oceanic lithosphere underneath the Iranian microplate and - more specifically - the seismotectonics of the east and west segments, including the section in the Gulf of Oman. Furthermore, the study examines the seismo-dynamics of compressional collision of the India and Eurasia plates along the northwestern boundary of India in the vicinity of the Northern Arabian Sea - as potential sources of future tsunamis and evaluates the tsunami risk from major earthquakes along coastal Karach, the deltaic Indus region and the grabens of Northwestern India. Finally, the study evaluates the possible effects of the extensive sedimentation from major rivers in the region on subduction processes. ........

POTENTIAL FOR TSUNAMI GENERATION ALONG THE KUTCH, BOMBAY, CAMBAY AND NAMACIA GRABEN REGIONS OF NORTHWEST INDIA

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 04:22:13 -1000

POTENTIAL OF TSUNAMI GENERATION ALONG THE MAKRAN SUBDUCTION ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. CASE STUDY: THE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI OF NOVEMBER 28, 1945 - by Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis

Presentation at 3rd Tsunami Symposium of the Tsunami Society May 23-25, 2006, East-West Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii.

......... The Kutch, Bombay, Cambay and Namacia Grabens - East of the Makran Accretionary Prism and the zone of tectonic subduction, lateral transition between subduction and collision of the India and Arabia tectonic plates at about 42mm/yr has formed the Kutch, Bombay, Cambay and Namacia Grabens, in northwestern India (Wadia, 1981). Although these grabens are not directly related to the Makran seismotectonics, they are included in this report because they are potential tsunami sources in the Northern Arabian Sea. These grabens are bounded by thrust and subsidence faults that are close to coastal regions, where significant earthquakes occurred in the past and will occur again in the future. The Kutch graben region has produced several large earthquakes - the latest in 2001 (Pararas-Carayannis, 2001). ......

THE TSUNAMIGENIC POTENTIAL OF CENTRAL / NORTHERN PERU - FUTURE IMPACT

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 04:22:21 -1000

EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI OF FEBRUARY 21, 1996 IN NORTHERN PERU - by Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis

A large earthquake off the northern coastal region of Peru caused minor damage but generated a local destructive tsunami in the Chimbote region of Peru. The epicenter ......

ASSESSMENT OF THE TSUNAMI POTENTIAL IN THE SEA OF MARMARA AND THE AEGEAN ARCHIPELAGO.

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 04:22:33 -1000

THE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI OF AUGUST 17, 1999 IN THE SEA OF MARMARA, TURKEY - by Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis

On August 17, 1999, a large destructive earthquake struck northwest Turkey and generated a local tsunami within the enclosed Sea of Marmara. This was the strongest earthquake to strike Northern Turkey since 1967. It occurred along the Northern Anatolian fault. Its epicenter was in the Gulf of Izmit. Official estimates indicated that about 17,000 people lost their lives and thousands more were injured. However, it is believed that the death toll may have been much higher. ....... Earthquake Epicenter, Origin Time, Magnitude and Aftershocks....

POTENTIAL FOR TSUNAMI GENERATION ALONG THE MAKRAN ACCRETIONARY PRISM AND THE MAKRAN COASTAL RANGE

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 04:22:39 -1000

POTENTIAL OF TSUNAMI GENERATION ALONG THE MAKRAN SUBDUCTION ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. CASE STUDY: THE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI OF NOVEMBER 28, 1945 - by Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis

Presentation at 3rd Tsunami Symposium of the Tsunami Society May 23-25, 2006, East-West Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii. -

Although large earthquakes along the Makran Subduction Zone are infrequent, the potential for the generation of destructive tsunamis in the Northern Arabian Sea cannot be overlooked. It is quite possible that historical tsunamis in this region have not been properly reported or documented. Such past tsunamis must have affected Southern Pakistan, India, Iran, Oman, the Maldives and other countries bordering the Indian Ocean.

The best known of the historical tsunamis in the region is the one generated by the great earthquake of November 28, 1945 off Pakistan's Makran Coast (Balochistan) in the Northern Arabian Sea. The destructive tsunami killed more than 4,000 people in Southern Pakistan but also caused great loss of life and devastation along the coasts of Western India, Iran, Oman and possibly elsewhere. ......

ASSESSMENT OF TSUNAMI GENERATION FROM EARTHQUAKES IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND THE SOUTHERN RYUKYU ISLANDS REGION

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 04:22:50 -1000

THE EARTHQUAKE OF 20 SEPT 1999 IN TAIWAN - by Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis

A large earthquake struck the island of Taiwan at approximately 1:45 a.m. (local time) on September 20, 1999. The quake killed or injured thousands of people, left thousands more homeless and caused extensive destruction to buildings, roads and utilities. Most of the casualties and damage occurred in the central Nantou, Taichung and Yunlin Counties. The quake triggered a series of landslides. ......

...... Records of the Satsuma samurais indicate that about 11,000 people were killed in the southern Ryukyu islands. The tsunami effects in Taiwan, Hong Kong and elsewhere in the region are not known. ..

-----The most recent large earthquake (mb=6.5), in the Taiwan Strait occurred on 16 September 1994 in the western part of the Tainan basin, at a very shallow depth of 13 km. It was named Peng-Hu Earthquakesk. The quake's focal mechanism indicated a sea floor movement consistent with normal faulting, with its axis along a N-S direction. ....

THE POTENTIAL FOR TSUNAMI GENERATION IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN BASIN AND IN THE AEGEAN AND IONIAN SEAS IN GREECE - by Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 04:22:56 -1000

Destructive earthquakes and tsunamis have ravaged the Eastern Mediterranean Basin, the Greek mainland and the islands of the Aegean and Ionian Seas. Large destructive earthquakes and tsunamis resulted in extensive destruction of the Minoan and early Greek settlements (Pararas-Carayannis, 1973). The following is a brief overview of major historical tsunamis in Greece and the potential for tsunami generation from large earthquakes in the region. ....

EVALUATION AND ASSESSMENT OF RISK FROM "MEGA TSUNAMIS"

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 04:21:33 -1000

EVALUATION OF THE THREAT OF MEGA TSUNAMI GENERATION FROM POSTULATED MASSIVE SLOPE FAILURES OF ISLAND VOLCANOES ON LA PALMA, CANARY ISLANDS, AND ON THE ISLAND OF HAWAII - by Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis.

Paper published in Science of Tsunami Hazards, Vol 20, No.5, pages 251-277, 2002.

The present study examines the assumptions and input parameters used by probabilistic numerical models and evaluates the threat of mega tsunami generation from flank failures of island stratovolcanoes. Based on geologic evidence and historic events, it concludes that massive flank collapses of Cumbre Vieja or Kilauea volcanoes ......

RISK ASSESSMENT OF TSUNAMI GENERATION FROM ACTIVE VOLCANIC SOURCES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN REGION

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 04:23:07 -1000

VOLCANIC TSUNAMI GENERATING SOURCE MECHANISMS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN REGION - by Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis

Based on presentation made at the 2004 National Science Foundation Tsunami Workshop in San Juan, Puerto Rico, and paper published in the Journal of Tsunami Hazards, Volume 22, Number 2. 2004.

Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, volcanic island flank failures and underwater slides have generated numerous destructive tsunamis in the Caribbean region. Convergent, compressional and collisional tectonic activity caused primarily from the eastward movement of the Caribbean Plate in relation to the North American and South American Plates, is responsible for zones of subduction in the region, the formation of island arcs and the evolution of particular volcanic centers on the overlying plate. ......

DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL FOR REAL TIME EVALUATION OF TSUNAMI RISK - by Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 04:23:17 -1000

Excerpts from Paper presented at the The International Association for the Physical Sciences of the Oceans (IAPSO) Conference in Honolulu, Hawaii, August 1995.

Using the Japan/Kuril islands region as an example, this paper reviews, compares and evaluates the seismic and hydrodynamic source parameters of recent and historical earthquakes, the tectonics of the region, the complex dynamic source interactions responsible for destructive tsunami generation and the conventional tsunami risk assessment methods. Finally, the present study proposes a model for a more accurate, real-time, evaluation of tsunami generation and tsunami risk for the source area as well as for distant terminal points....

TSUNAMIS OF THE 21st CENTURY - by Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 04:23:24 -1000

Excerpts from a paper presented at the Second International Tsunami Workshop on the Technical Aspects of Tsunami Warning Systems, Tsunami Analysis, Preparedness, Observation and Instrumentation. Novosibirsk, USSR, 4-5 August 1989. - Tsunamis recur with frequencies of short, medium, long, or super-long cycles. Most are generated by earthquakes, although volcanic eruptions, rockfalls, landslides and other impulsive sources can also generate them. Each region of the world .....

FORECASTING TSUNAMIS

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 04:23:37 -1000

TSUNAMI FORECASTING, PREPAREDNESS AND WARNING - by Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis

Tsunami hazard mitigation precludes accurate and expeditious forecasting, issuance of a prompt warning, and a program of preparedness that will assure the effectiveness of the warning.

Forecasting tsunamis requires adequate understanding of the phenomenon, good and expeditious collection of earthquake and sea level data, and accurate assessment and interpretation of this data .....