TTT HEDGE FUND 2012

THE POLITICS OF RECOVERY

2012-02-26T12:37:00.001-08:00

PLEASE JOIN TODAY FOR INSTANT MARKET VIEWS OF THE TOP FORECASTER SINCE 1982

The Commerce Department said Friday that new-home sales fell 0.9 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 321,000 homes. That followed four straight months of gains in which home sales rose 10 percent. The gains came after the government upwardly revised October, November and December's figures. December's annual sales pace of 324,000 was the highest in a year. Even with more sales, just 304,000 new homes were sold in 2011 -- the fewest on records dating back to 1963. And new homes are selling well below the 700,000-per-year rate that economists equate with healthy markets. But - not to worry just read Bloomberg as they reported the figures this way "Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts in January after climbing a month earlier to a one-year high, more evidence the housing market is stabilizing. " graphs - RTTNews

The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday existing home sales increased 4.3 percent to an annual rate of 4.57 million units last month, the fastest pace since May 2010. Sales were up across all four regions of the country, with the West recording the biggest gain -- an 8.8 percent increase.

As a result of ongoing geopolitical tensions (e.g. Iran) as well a spotty but generally improving global economy, the price of crude oil continues to trend higher. Since the end of September, the cost of one barrel of crude oil has increased by over $30. With oil prices trending higher, it is not all that surprising to find that gasoline prices are following suit. The average US price for a gallon of unleaded is up $1.87 per gallon since the financial crisis low. Over the past two months, gasoline prices have resumed their upward trend with an increase of $0.35 per gallon. There a couple points of interest from today's chart. For one, Middle East crises are often associated with major swings in the price of gasoline. Also, gasoline price spikes have often occurred prior to an economic downturn. In the end, gasoline prices have rarely been higher than current levels and considering the fragility of the current global economy, gasoline/oil prices are something to watch going forward.

This past week's top sectors.

This past week's indices - the small caps were slightly lower.

The monthly cash charts show that at the moment we are sitting at the high for the month across the board after a 5-month climb, except for oil which took a 2-month breather. The NASDAQ has broken above its multiyear highs while the Dow having broken last year's high is still under the high from 2007. The general market volume has not increased significantly and most traders look to volume as a demonstration of strength so are still treating this excellent rally as questionable so have missed much of these gains. Perhaps if the S&P 500 will move over last year's high and some volume will come in it will encourage more buying. You can see however that it's top Bollinger band is at 1425 and if reached may put at least a short-term stop to the rally. Oil is reaching its high from last year which is also right at the top Bollinger band at $115.

By midweek as seen on this 60 min chart, the indices had dropped to the lower Bollinger band as seems to happen every week, and became a good buying opportunity as they all then ran to the top Bollinger bands.

The monthly Dow chart a little bit longer term overview to show the look of the breakout so far and the declining volume each month.

The daily chart with RSI at 62 so not overbought and the top Bollinger band is at 13,179.

This 10 minute renko chart shows the morning dip on Thursday and the rise from about 9:30 and then the range the following day.

This Dow futures chart having short term Fibonacci projections on the right shows it has remained above the 161.8% projection. It now has at least a 60% chance of reaching the longer term 127.2% which is at 13,313.

This shorter term Dow futures chart with Fibonacci projections as shown. So the next trade above that 13,000 level may run right up to the 161.8% as shown.

Understandably with the rise in gasoline prices the transports have been falling this past week.

There was some movement into utilities this week as they bounced on Friday but are still contained in this range established in November.

The NASDAQ monthly also shows, decreasing volume though RSI is just at 63 and when it reached a high in 2007 RSI was over 70. Note that the histogram has just turned positive

The weekly chart with its 12 point gain.

On the NASDAQ 60 min chart there was a very brief touching or crossing of the moving averages but they remain on a buy and now one can use this lower channel trendline as a cautionary stop.

You may remember that the NASDAQ summation index is not terribly fast to respond so can have some whipsaws but do note that despite the new highs this week they have crossed over which is a warning and must be reversed pretty soon as often these crossovers can result in multi-week or month moves.

The past week it was a short one and there wasn't a big gain in the and this is but noticed that the number of new highs as shown on this moving average have not really increased in the past week. On the positive side the number of new lows have also not increased.

The NASDAQ 100 futures having broken above the 2600 level now has short term Fibonacci projection levels as shown.

Being a short term 15 min chart the moving averages can be a volatile but note that on Thursday the crossover came as the price moved above the downtrend line which worked out for a short term gain as it is inside this up trending parallel channel.

VIX again closed lower ending the week at 17.31.

The semiconductor index in a pretty tight range moving up and down closed down less than 2% remains above the trendline.

The New York stock exchange index on the top continued higher though in the bottom we see the number of new highs minus new lows have not turned back up significantly.

85% of all stocks on the New York stock exchange are now trading over their 50 day moving average.

The S&P 500 lazy the chart shows the price level back up to 2011 highs with the weekly RS I at 63. It is been a good run since did by at 1208. We updated the point gains from the summer of 2009 and generally the moves have been all along enough in duration that there was only one losing trade and the total amount is about 725 points or $36,000 per contract.

Last week two weeks ago we saw a test of the lower parallel channel trendline and again this week as well and the close was just at or under it. If we don't get a rally soon it will remain under it which doesn't necessarily mean a big drop but is a caution when it moves out of a channel. It's been in for two months.

This S&P 500 ultra long from our stock charts public page can also be used as an general market indicator even if you don't trade it. Watching the parallel channel trend lines and moving averages crossovers can spot the net potential points to take profits or to reverse trades.

On the ultra short side this would be a long trade if we do get a decent pullback.

As we saw with the Dow futures here the S&P 500 futures with some short term Fibonacci projections overhead that would come into play with a close over 1370.

A longer view of the monthly Russell 2000 chart and its three month in-a-row gains and about 42 points to go to get back to the all-time high.

The daily chart shows the tight range it is been in and overhead resistance.

And this Russell 60 min chart shows the February range.

The banking index has also been a non-starter lately had now is back close to its 20 day moving average.

With the price of gas going higher it was rather expected that retail may start some declines as we have often heard retailers speak of lower sales during times of high gasoline prices.

The Dow Jones world stock index gained two. One percent this week closing very near the underside of this formerly broken trendline which may provide resistance now.

The FTSE did gain half a percent this week and is a bit above the recent range but has yet to break this significantly.

The Shanghai exchange remained strong adding 3 1/2% this week making clearly above the more recent congestion and taking RSI back over 50. This is a positive move for the other markets in general with resistance now at the 50 week EMA which is near the top Bollinger band.

A little bit lower than the 50 week EMA above is the 200 day EMA at 2483 and this may give resistance as it did last summer. RSI on the daily chart is very near to 70.

We have often shown with stocks that as they approach a moving average and may have trouble breaking over it. They instead use the trick of just gapping up over resistance. We can see that our commodity ETF did just that this week, gapping over the 200 week EMA and closing the week up 3.9% on increased volume.

Crude oil which last week closed just act the downtrend line ran over at closing at $109. If it can hold the trendline been the logical first target will be the $114 level from last year.

This is a closer view on the weekly chart of oil. It is above the top Bollinger band but if it takes a bit of time it can push-up the bands like it did last year starting in late February. It does however need higher value as it had last time.

Here a gold futures chart with short term Fibonacci levels on the right and also the Fibonacci retrace levels from that 2011 high with the 78.6% retrace at 108, which may also give intermediate resistance.

Natural gas made that low six weeks ago with a quick test the following week as RSI had gone under 30 for a longer-term position this area is logical as the stop is nearby and if it is the start of the longer-term reversal obviously would be a good entry point. The histogram is only slightly negative and with only a little movement higher we will see a MACD crossover.a

Gold Closed above the 1767 resistance and now has it at 1804.

Here just a closer view of that gold. Of those gold levels.

On this gold futures chart you see the close just under the 61.8% retracement level.

Shorter-term gold futures shows the move to the 127.2% projection which gave enough resistance that it's been consolidating below that level. A close back above their could take it to the 161.8% as shown.

This gold ETF closed right at that top parallel channel line with some increase in volume but not is much as earlier in the year.

The GDX candlestick 60 min chart dropped below its 20 day MA but has held above the 50. Though this is short term as the Williams indicator above and the RSI indicator below their top lines.

As you know the GTX mechanical had shifted back to buy and each time when the signals change. We hope the trend lasts so we don't have whipsaws which eats away at the buildup gains and less we are taking partial profits. Along the way.

The silver monthly chart just points out the close right at resistance levels. However you'll note this move in the last couple of months has kept RSI above 50 and has moved the Williams indicator from just slightly below.

The silver futures chart with a break above the downtrend line but remains still under horizontal resistance. A close above 36 would then give a better than even odds that it will move to the 127.2% Fibonacci projection at $38.37.

It would be nice if silver does break above those levels as there is at least a six dollar gained now on our mechanical silver trade which went long at the turn of the year.

Last week copper looked cautionary as it closed below its 50 week EMA though it did put in a good 3.5% bounce this week.

Platinum however did break cleanly above resistance rising 5.3% this week.

Palladium was up 3.5% but it has not broken to new highs of the year. Do note that it did have increased volume this week.

The euro futures continued a rally closing above the 50% retracement towards its high from last October. It is now near the downtrend line worth watching for a break or a failure there.

If the US dollar were to rally the market may decline. Note that the Williams indicator is now below 80 and in past rallies it was at a similar location. Also notice that RSI though is at 37 and in the past it went below or near 30 before some major rallies. The dollar closed at 78.35 which is one penny under the earlier low this year which started a small rally. The other price to note is 78, as that is the 200 day EMA.

And the daily dollar futures charts looking quite week though Williams is oversold but RSI not so much. It is however just now under the lower Bollinger band. So watch as mentioned above for any quick trips to 78 is that may be a short term balance area.

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Volatility mean opportunity for futures trading and it is free to try it out.

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Futures and Forex trading

TTT NEW BULL MARKET

2012-02-24T06:13:00.001-08:00

Good Morning. One of the most interesting/difficult aspects of trying to manage money in the stock market is the fact that the game is always changing. And I'm here to say that one of the most dramatic changes I've ever witnessed in my 24+ years in this business has occurred in the past four months. In short, never before has the importance of being flexible been more evident as this market morphed from a violent, bucking bronco that moved hundreds of points on the latest headline or rumor out of Europe into a steady-Eddie, Energizer Bunny.

Ever since I started managing "other people's money" in 1987, I've felt it was important to have a investment process that was repeatable. And for me the first step in the process has always been to identify the environment that you are dealing with. The thinking is that if you know what type of beast you are doing battle with; you might have a shot at choosing the right weapon with which to fight.

For example, investors have likely learned (the hard way) that utilizing the same pedal-to-the-metal approach that was all the rage in the late 1990's was a recipe for disaster during the ensuing Tech Bubble Bear that took a massive toll on tech and growth stocks from 2000-2003. So, while margined dotcom's were the weapons of choice in 1999, it was cash, value stocks, and bonds that made for better holdings for the next three years.

In looking at the current market environment, it is clear that the market environment has changed. The violence that was so pervasive from late-July through mid-December is gone. In its place is a relentless march higher with nary a hiccup seen over the past ten weeks. From an historical perspective, we saw the bull that began on March 10, 2009 end in a violent fashion last August when what will be technically defined as a cyclical bear market occurred. And since the S&P has now moved up more than 24% from the October low, it is important to recognize that we've now got a cyclical bull market on our hands.

So, does this mean we can start doing something else besides watching every headline out of Europe, China and the Fed? And can we perhaps just let our chips ride this wonderful wave for a while? Or will the current joyride end with a bang once Dow 13,000 is eclipsed?

In all honesty, I'm not sure (again, I'm sorry to report that my crystal ball is in the shop). What I can say is that the average cyclical bull market that occurs within the context of a secular bear cycle (the one that began in 2000), tends to last about a year. And in terms of what we might be able to expect out of this bull move - from a big-picture standpoint - it is worth noting that the median gain for cyclical bulls within secular bears is something north of 75% and the average gain is over 105%.

But, before you run out and start buying UPRO's on margin, we should remember that history is only a guide. If one looks closely at the data, you will find that the actual returns for all the cyclical bulls that occur within a secular bear are all over the map. For example, since 1960 there have been five cyclical bulls with returns greater than 85% (two over 100% and one over 290%) and six bulls that sported returns of less than 35%. Thus, given that this market changed costumes so quickly and that there are still a few macro issues out there, one could argue that the current bull may not make it to the mean or median columns.

However, I like to stick with what is instead of worrying about what could be. Therefore, we need to recognize that the market has changed from a news-driven bear to a new cyclical bull. And the key going forward will be to try and identify anything to indicate that our current bull is about to make yet another quick costume change

TTT TAKING NEW MEMBERS JOIN TODAY !

2012-02-22T05:55:00.000-08:00

Good Morning. I continue to get questions as the reason behind the current run for the roses in the stock market. What about Greece, they ask. Aren't there huge problems with the bailout deal that was finally arranged on Tuesday? What if the private bond holders don't go along with the debt swap? Isn't there a risk that the Germans won't approve the deal? And won't we eventually see a default? What about the rest of Europe? And what about those big problems in Portugal? And on and on and...

Unfortunately, the answers to the questions make those asking them even more befuddled. Yes, there are problems with the bailout deal. Yes, there is a risk that the private bond holders might just walk away after taking it in the shorts yet again. Yes, there is the risk that the Germans and Fins may vote no when asked to approve the money for Greece's bailout loans. And yes, there are other debt bombs lurking in Europe and all over the world, for that matter.

However, the point I try to make to those asking these very good questions is that the focus on the stock market is constantly moving. Sure, the questions are valid, I say. But, I proceed to add that the stock market has moved on - and so should they. It's not that the issues at hand don't matter; they do - just not to the guys and gals running the big money around the world.

If you've been paying attention, the action in the stock market for the better part of the past three months has made this clear. No longer does a rumor out of Nicolas Sarkozy's office move the market 1%. No longer does the German's insistence on more austerity ruin the mood of a good day. Nope, it appears that the days of the Dow moving hundreds of points in a matter of minutes based on news out of Europe may be behind us.

In order to drive the point home, I toss in the idea that the big declines seen in the stock market in 2010 and again in 2011 were the result of worries that a credit event in Europe would create another "Lehman moment" and put the global banking system at risk. So, given that there is no imminent risk of a credit event and that the banks of the world are now stronger than they were last year (and the year before that), stocks have moved on to more mundane things like earnings, valuations, economics and the rest of the basic fundamentals.

My final point to those seeking an opinion or two from yours truly is that the big money is accumulating stocks - and that perhaps they should be doing the same (but only on dips, of course). Remember, hedge funds, which are arguably the biggest driving force in the market these days, came into 2011 underinvested. I saw a report Tuesday that as of the end of November, hedge funds held about 50% less equity exposure than normal (80% vs. 130%). And with the probability of the much feared Lehman moment dwindling this year, the hedgies appear to be moving their equity exposure back up towards more normal levels. According to Hedge Fund Research, after the third worst year on record in 2011, hedge funds are making money again this year - not quite as much as the market mind you, but the momentum of returns seems to be building.

Does this mean that stocks won't encounter a pullback anytime soon or that the current relentless move higher will continue for weeks to come? Of course not. Stocks are extended and are certainly ripe for a setback in the near-term. However, unless there is something meaningful behind the next pullback in stock prices, investors who find themselves underinvested may want to think about doing what the hedgies are doing - moving on.

TTT NEW BULL MARKET

2012-02-17T05:59:00.000-08:00

Good Morning. During the majority of last year, it seemed that all (yes ALL) the news was bad. Greece was surely going to default, which was going to trigger vast unknown quantities of CDS, which, this time, would tank the global banking system, which, in turn, would send us back to the middle ages bartering for goods and services with grains and livestock, and protecting our homes with guns. In a nutshell, the news flow and the macro outlook was a nightmare as no one could imagine anything positive ever happening again.

As I recall, even if Greece was somehow spared and a "messy default" avoided, the domino effect from the rest of the PIGIS would take over and the world as we know it would cease to exist. And if by some off chance the defaults could be avoided in Europe, then the recessions resulting from the mess this crisis had created would surely plunge even the best economies of the world into something that would make the Great Depression in the U.S. look like a cake walk.

As I have written any number of times over the past six months, the negativity had become so thick you probably couldn't cut it with even the sharpest knife. A pall of gloom engulfed the markets and just about everybody on the planet knew we were doomed. It appeared that the leaders of Europe were powerless to fight the contagion that would surely spread throughout the world. And while politicians talked a good line about working together, it became apparent near the holidays that no other country was willing to buck up and lend the trillions needed to "save Europe."

However, as we were allowing our brains to be invaded by the pervasive negative feedback loop, one very simple fact was forgotten. You see, even during the worst of times, good things can occasionally happen. Although even the good news was ignored last year, this year appears to be a horse of a completely different color.

Thus far in 2012, the good news has come in bunches and from the strangest places such as the U.S. housing market (which to hear the bears tell it should be heading down still), corporate earnings, economic output, and yes, even the jobs market. To be sure, things are not peachy keen by any stretch of the imagination. But at the same time, things are FAR better than the doom that dominated the markets near the end of last year.

Thus, the most important lessons to be heeded in 2012 are: (1) Good things can happen - no matter how dark the night may appear, and (2) Investors simply must be flexible enough to change with the times (or at the very least, follow systems that can force them to adapt - even if they don't want to).

Am I saying that things are wonderful in the global economy and that we've embarked on a new secular bull market. Uh, no. But I am saying that when the market discounts the worst and then the sky doesn't actually fall (I know, I know, it's coming, just wait), again, good things can happen. Remember, the stock market is a discounting mechanism of future expectations. And right now, stock prices appear to be suggesting that the U.S. economy is growing, that the deal in Greece is going to get done, that the ECB DID know what it was doing with the LTRO, that there won't be a 'Lehman moment' in Europe, and that Apple may sell more of its products than anyone - including the late Steve Jobs - ever dreamed of.

The key point this morning is that something that everyone knows (such as how the world was going to end because Greece was going to default) isn't really worth knowing in the market. In short, by the time "everyone" knows what's going on, the market has already discounted the potential outcome. And then if something good actually does come along, traders scramble to get back on the right side of the macro view and an unstoppable melt-up ensues.

So, while stocks are indeed overbought and a pullback could occur at any time and for any reason, the fact that the S&P 500 is up +23.5% from its low means that according to the most common definition, this is a new bull market. And as such, one should be flexible enough to play the game accordingly. You never know, good things might just continue to happen.

TTT SELL SIGNAL IN FULL BLOOM

2012-02-11T11:24:00.000-08:00

Hi ,

We have done a good job stockpicking this year !

Symbol CP Chng % Price Gain since 1/1/12 % Gain Since 1/1/12 Entry
.
DE 87.55 -0.38 -0.43 8.43 11% 79.12
.
CF 180.15 -5.18 -2.8 30.40 20% 149.75
.
POT 44.7 -1.17 -2.55 1.96 5% 42.74
.
CRM 128.44 2.83 2.25 24.26 23% 104.18
.
USG 13.99 -0.7 -4.77 3.45 33% 10.54
.
RIO 59.33 -1.42 -2.34 7.77 15% 51.56
.
FCX 44.94 -1.48 -3.19 6.67 17% 38.27
.
VALE 25.75 -0.45 -1.72 3.13 14% 22.62
.
SYMC 17.78 -0.24 -1.33 1.79 11% 15.99
.
GLW 13.6 -0.19 -1.38 0.35 3% 13.25
.
PTEN 17.98 -0.47 -2.55 -2.38 -12% 20.36
.
FXI 38.93 -1.16 -2.89 2.12 6% 36.81
.
NFLX 123.93 -0.91 -0.73 53.65 76% 70.28
.
SCCO 33.69 -1.14 -3.27 2.53 8% 31.16
.
PCL 39.18 -0.17 -0.43 2.11 6% 37.07
.
UBS 13.9 -0.55 -3.81 1.60 13% 12.3
.
LUK 29.18 -0.24 -0.82 5.72 24% 23.46
.
MAN 44.96 -0.87 -1.9 8.19 22% 36.77
.
BX 16.04 -0.55 -3.32 1.66 12% 14.38
.
LVS 51.59 -0.96 -1.83 7.90 18% 43.69
.
Short Avg 16%
.
2/11/2012 14:24:09

TALLY UP THE GAINS

2012-02-07T13:44:00.001-08:00

TTT SELL SIGNAL HIT

2012-02-05T13:12:00.001-08:00

New unemployment claims in the U.S. fell to a lower level than most experts had expected according to figures released by the Labor Department. For the week ending January 28, the DOL reported a seasonally adjusted level of 367,000 initial claims for unemployment. That marks a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 379,000 - slightly higher than the 377,000 initially reported. graphs - RTTNews

Payrolls expanded by much more than economists had predicted in January, while the unemployment rate declined. The U.S. economy added 243,000 jobs in January, according to statistics released by the Department of Labor on Friday. Economists had expected an increase of 135,000

The report showed that the unemployment rate came in at 8.3 percent. Economists were looking for the jobless rate to hold steady at 8.5 percent

The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said this week its business barometer declined to 60.2 from 62.2 in December. Readings above 50 signal growth. Economists forecast the gauge would rise to 63.

Orders to factories rose in December, supported by a rebound in business investment in capital goods. In addition, service companies grew at the fastest pace in 11 months in January as companies started hiring to keep up with rising demand. Factory orders rose 1.1 percent in December after gaining 2.2 percent in November, the Commerce Department reported Friday. For the year, total orders were up 12.1 percent after a gain of 12.9 percent in 2010.

The Institute for Supply Management said Friday that its index of non-manufacturing activity jumped to 56.8 percent in January from 53 percent in December. The survey's employment index soared to its highest level since February 2006. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion.

Friday, the Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls (jobs) increased by a significant 243,000 in January. This chart provides some perspective on the US job market. Note how the number of jobs steadily increased from 1961 to 2001 (top chart). During the last economic recovery (i.e. the end of 2001 to the end of 2007), job growth was unable to get back up to its long-term trend (first time since 1961). More recently, the number of nonfarm payrolls has been working its way higher but at a pace that is not fast enough to close the gap on its 1961 to 2001 trend. In fact, the current number of US jobs is still below its 2001 peak.

This past week's top sectors.

This past week's indices - the small caps gained the most.

The monthly charts are still looking quite bullish. The NASDAQ has broken to multi-year highs, the Dow not far from moving towards that 13,000 mark from 2010. If it breaks to the upside there it could also eventually test the 2007 highs at 14,200. The S&P 500 needs to move over 1380 and the Russell 2000 is nearing its all-time highs as well.

On the 60 min chart we see how bullish the indices have been, breaking out over the top band, going sideways and then running back up to it again. It is very bullish when they push the bands up in this way and you want to see that the Center Bollinger band holds on pullbacks.

A standalone view of the Dow monthly chart and the overhead challenge towards the 2007 high.

The weekly chart shows it just moving back inside the ascending parallel channel.

The daily shows how close it is to closing over the 2010 highs. The MACD is flattening out and the histogram rather flat. The RSI is close to overbought territory but when it made its 2010 high it was a bit over 70.

The 10 min renko chart shows the steep move up at the start of the day on Friday when the jobs report numbers came out. Then it stayed flat for most of the day.

There are two sets of Fibonacci projections on this two-day-per-bar Dow futures chart. The first projection based off the last dip had a 161.8% target that was reached on Friday. The longer term projection is based from the 2011 low and has the first 127.2% target at 13,313.

A closer view on the 120 min chart shows that big move and the breakout of trendline Friday morning and how the Fibonacci level was also R3 pivot and both together gave too much resistance to allow it to move higher

The transports moved up only half a percent this past week, still well under the top weekly Bollinger band.

Utilities stayed in a tight range right on dual moving averages.

The black chart monthly view of the NASDAQ showing that December volume was up over the November volume. It was not by a lot, but enough to help it along to close in this new territory by a bit.

And the weekly chart shows it about midway inside the parallel channel so plenty of room to move for a while. It is short term overbought but RSI also has room to run.

The moving average of number of new high son the Nasdaq made an impressive run to and slightly over the peak it hit in July. This is just what you want to see in a bull market.

The NASDAQ summation index is now almost 100 points away from its five day EMA as the index rapidly moved to new high levels.

The NASDAQ 100 closed right at the top Bollinger band So a bit of a pullback this week could be expected. You can see it's rapid rise this year has basically been pushing that band up. At 78 the RSI is short term overbought.

The daily NASDAQ 100 futures with two sets of Fibonacci projection levels both short and longer-term.

The volatility index closed the week at 17.

The semiconductor index is back over the trendline and shorter-term horizontal resistance.

The moving average of the number of new highs minus new lows on the NYSE (lower section) continued to climb and very near former resistance from February of last year. The NYSE itself however has broken above resistance.

89% of all stocks on the NYSE are now trading over their 50 day moving average. This is quite bullish though it is at levels where we often have begun some pullback in the past but it has can remain above these levels for a month or more.

The lazy S&P 500 is 136 points above the last buy and within pennies of the 1345 resistance level. RSI on this weekly chart is only at 61 so it has room to run.

The weekly chart shows it closing at its high and right at former resistance.

Here a closer view on a daily chart and you see it at the top Bollinger band with RSI over 70. Putting it in overbought territory short term.

On the 60 min chart RSI is also high but medium term it is only at about the center of this ascending parallel channel.

The S&P 500 ETF 2X long dipped to sell and below the channel for a couple of days and then switched back to a buy for February.

The S&P 500 futures chart showing both longer and short term Fibonacci projection levels if it breaks over the the 1357 resistance.

Here a 120 min chart with its move to R3 Pivot on Friday, which coincided with this 127.2% projection. In this timeframe, we see the 161.8% just over 1350.

The standalone Russell 2000 monthly chart showing its current relation to its all-time high set in 2011. The histogram in this timeframe is still slightly negative and the MACD is just about to cross over bullishly. If those happen, this could start a larger move on a breakout above the all-time high.

On the daily chart we see the close over the top Bollinger band with RSI over 70 so a candidate for an overbought pullback.

The move on Friday brought the Russell back up and over this 60 min parallel channel it has been in since mid December. Note that it also took it very close to the measured move of the inverse head and shoulders we pointed out in December

The 15 min Russell 2000 faster to respond, had a crossover on its MACD and RSI dropped back under 70 by the close on Friday.

The 3X bullish ETF for the Russell broke above its ascending parallel channel and moved to a secondary one above which was also at the R3 Pivot Friday its RSI remained at elevated levels at the close.

The retail sector ETF continued its move higher closing at its high for the week.

The banking sector got a boost this week, moving over resistance as shown. This pattern shows a possible resistance projection at 48 at the 161.8% projection.

A closer view of the breakout on Friday as it moved up over 3%.

The 10 year treasury note yield moved up strongly on Friday closing at the 50 day EMA - yield of 1.94%.

The Dow Jones world market index gained 2.4% for the week and above horizontal resistance.

The emerging market ETF also closed well above resistance as a continuation from last week's move over the 50 week EM a.

TTT FUNNY BUSINESS ? GET SHORT TOMORROW

2012-02-02T16:22:00.000-08:00

Recently released transcripts from the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meetings between 2000 and 2006 indicate a comparable increase in the rise in housing market prices and subsequent laughter amongst the committee members.

Blogger Kyle Akin of The Daily Stag Hunt did an interesting study of the FOMC meetings. Akin tracked the number of times the official record contained a pause for laughter among the group. He found that the FOMC averaged 16.5 pauses for fits of giggles per meeting in 2001.

By 2006, the Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index peaked, interest rates were low, the stock market was booming and housing prices were exploding; meanwhile, the FOMC cracked up a recorded 44 times each meeting.

The blogger noted one particular outburst when Vice Chairman Timothy Geithner spoke to former chairman Alan Greenspan during his final meeting:

“With the near-term monetary policy path that’s now priced into the market, we think the economy is likely to grow slightly above trend in ’06 and close to trend in ’07.”

In hindsight, Obama’s current U.S. Secretary of Treasury could not have been more incorrect.

The Fed’s chipper atmosphere mirrored the cheerful complacency on Wall Street and Main Street.

But then there was 2008: the greatest financial crisis since The Great Depression developed; the housing market crashed and burned and the value of derivatives evaporated. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, at its lowest point, home prices fell nearly 20 percent in a single month.

Though FOMC minutes are released three weeks following the group’s gatherings, full transcripts that record details are not available to the public for five years thereafter.

While we cannot know for certain, it might be reasonable to assume a hush has fallen over the formerly funny FOMC crowd since 2008.

Even after a brief 2010 recovery, home have continued to fall despite present Chairman Ben Bernanke’s best efforts to boost the market with low interest rates. It is estimated that this past November’s Case-Shiller Index will show an additional 3% drop.

Hilarious or humorless? Regardless, the true point of interest is the Fed’s increased transparency, ultimately.

Unfortunately, “we can never know within a reasonable period of time if the FOMC actually knows what it is doing… [and] we are not laughing,” Alan Newman said in response to the laughter count.

FADE THE POST AAPL AND STATE OF THE UNION RALLY

2012-01-24T16:53:00.000-08:00

FIND OUT WHAT SEPERATES GREAT TRADERS...FUTURES TRADERS WATCH MY TRADES

http://www.ttthedge.com free trial

Tom

TZA

2012-01-23T21:09:00.000-08:00

BUYB TZA MAKE the money to join

Tom

TTT COMES TO THE RESCUE

2012-01-22T13:41:00.000-08:00

LET'S HAVE A GREAT WEEK....JOIN TODAY ...CLICK AND GET MY TOP 20 STOCKS AND THIS WEEK'S ETF.

TOM

WHY NOT JOIN ME AND DOUBLE YOUR MONEY FOR $125

2012-01-18T16:33:00.000-08:00

Commentary: A bullish engulfing candlestick pattern can be a very good indicator for finding turning points in a stock. The pattern occurs when an up-candle (close above open) completely envelopes the prior down-candle (close below open). This pattern occurs in the following four stock charts. While many people will look for this candlestick pattern to try to find reversals in downtrends, the pattern can be very useful when it occurs in the same direction as the current trend. The following four stocks are all in uptrends and have seen recent pullbacks. The appearance of a bullish engulfing pattern in such an environment shows the bulls are still alive, and the stocks could be due for another wave higher.

Philip Morris (NYSE:PM) was a great long in 2011 and remains in an uptrend. So far in 2012, though, the stock has been retreating. On January 13 a bullish engulfing pattern occurred; the price jumped from an open of $76.22 to close out the day at $77.32. This bullish day dwarfed the prior day's intra-range where the stock finished down marginally. The move shows the bulls are still alive and another wave in the uptrend could occur. Targets for the next wave are $82.50 and $85. Stops can be placed a little bit below $76, which provides an attractive risk/reward ratio. (From picking the right type of stock to setting stop-losses, learn how to trade wisely. For more, see Day Trading Strategies For Beginners.)

Dollar General (NYSE:DG) is another stock that had a great 2011, but started out 2012 by pulling back (not much though). With the stock still in an uptrend, the buyers stepped back in on Friday, creating a bullish engulfing pattern. Since last November the stock has been moving in a more choppy fashion, which means there is resistance and support close at hand. If the engulfing pattern does in fact indicate the stock is going higher, it will need to break through the recent high at $42.10. If it does, the target is $45 to $46. Ideally, volume should increase as the stock moves higher. Support is presently just above $38 and can be used as a stop level. A tighter stop, which has a higher chance of being triggered but reduces the risk, can be placed just below $39.50. (For related reading, see Interpreting Support And Resistance Zones.)

Nisource (NYSE:NI) was having a hard time breaking above $23 in the last half of 2011, but in December managed to climb to $24. As the New Year kicked off, the stock fell and has been falling since ... that is until the bulls stepped in in force on Friday, pushing the stock up 2.8%. The progressively higher lows since August 2011 indicate there is underlying strength, and the strong showing on Friday means the stock could hit a new 52-week high fairly soon. If a wave higher occurs, the target is $25 to $25.50. Stops can be placed near $22, with primary support just above $21. (Understanding this key concept can drastically improve your short-term investing strategy. For more, see Support & Resistance Basics.)

Sunoco Logistics Partners (NYSE:SXL) has been on a tear since last October, and the uptrend may not be finished yet. Since the start of this year, the stock has been pulling back, but the recent bullish engulfing pattern means the correction could be over. There is a support band between $36 and $34, so this is a likely spot for the bulls to step back in. If the stock breaks the 52-week high at $39.98 the first target is $42 followed by $44. Stops can be placed just above $33 (primary support) or near $35, which is below the engulfing pattern. (For more on stops, see Maximize Profits With Volatility Stops.)

Bottom Line
A bullish engulfing pattern can be a powerful signal, especially when combined with the current trend. All these stocks are in uptrends but have seen recent pullbacks, and the candlestick pattern indicates the correction could be over. The pattern shows that bulls are present and willing to buy, and the uptrend lends reliability to the signal. As with any pattern, this is not always reliable, so stop losses should be used

TTT TRADE FUTURES WITH ME FOR FREE

2012-01-18T07:01:00.000-08:00

What's the Easiest E-mini to Trade?

Tags: E-minis, Austin Passamonte, Futures trading, E-mini trading, E-mini futures, E-mini markets
When traders talk about trading E-mini futures, E-mini S&P 500 or "ES" is the first thought that usually comes to mind. It is by far the most popular stock-index market traded, by retail traders and institutions alike. That widespread popularity is not necessarily a good thing. Program trading arbitrage attempts at capturing the difference in price values per tick between E-mini and full-size S&P contracts creates a lot of sideways buzz in price movement. Other program trading efforts by funds and institutions involve arbing the futures against cash index pricing with SPY shares, futures against cash SPX options, futures against baskets of big-cap stocks and a plethora of other complex spread equations.
That type of layered congestion keeps the E-mini S&P constantly retracing its steps. Between directional swings of price movement up or down, there is consolidation with any market. That's how the pattern of price action plays out... consolidation leads to directional expansion, which then settles into consolidation. That cycle repeats itself over and over again, through all time frames and conditions. In the case of E-mini S&P futures, consolidation is created and emphasized by any number of arbitrage programs playing tug-of-war with the tapes. It's not like the index is going through the usual progression of accumulation, distribution and rest. The ES is constantly being pushed around in a small sideways range by sideways trading strategies designed to arb temporary price discrepancies.
What does this mean to retail traders?
Many things. Because the ES contains so much sideways congested price movement or "noise", a lot of E-mini traders direct their focus on that. They work really hard at developing strategies that capture mere ticks of profit as successful trades. All manner of complex initial stop-loss, multiple contracts scaled out of to exit and bigger risk / smaller reward ratios are toyed with in search of success.
With very few exceptions, retail traders all fail miserably in these attempts. The concept of trading tiny scalps within sideways noise is just an illusion, not a viable path to success.
Nasdaq 100
Money is made for traders when price action is moving directionally. It stands to reason that the more directional a symbol is, the more opportunity for traders to buy low/sell high or sell high/buy low exists. Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures or "NQ" are far superior to the S&P futures in this regard. NQ futures lack the dogged back & fill behavior of ES futures. The NQ is smoother, straighter and much more directional. It spends less time in consolidation. When the NQ breaks from consolidation, it moves away from those areas where traders enter long or short trades without constantly chopping the initial stops.
NQ futures have more than enough liquidity for any retail trader. With 300k to 500k contracts traded per day, blocks of 50 to 100+ contracts clear constantly with nil or no slippage on the fills. At $20 per index point with four ticks inside, the $5 tick size is relatively tight. An average intraday price range greater than 20 index points creates plenty of opportunity for profit from directional swings.
Too many traders place emphasis on potential profit in the wrong areas. One of the mistakes I've heard & read about is a correlation between average true range of a symbol and/or tick size versus commission costs. The fallacy logic is that one symbol offering greater range or smallest tick size therefore gives best "bang for the buck" when it comes to trade costs.
That ill logic is a red herring. Trade costs are highest - worst in symbols that move sideways excessively, creating more trades due to stop-loss orders being hit in persistent chop. Trade costs are lowest overall in symbols that require fewest trade attempts to capture profitable swings. Fixating on commission costs and shaving a dime here & there to lowest possible per-turn rate is pennywise and dollar stupid relative to focusing on which symbol requires the fewest trades to capture price movement going up or down.
If it commonly takes a sequence of long, short and short in the ES to capture the initial $200 per contract price move lower whereas same signals in NQ are long and then short once to capture an equal $200 per contract profit, you saved yourself one commission cost in the entire exchange. That type of trade efficiency goes a lot further to shaving the bottom line than upping volume of contracts turned just to save another 20 cents per turn. Dollar-wise efficiency is one of many strengths the NQ offers. It makes straighter moves and has much less noise than ES. Therefore, a solid strategy to trade it will give fewer trade signals with higher win percentage ratio as a result.
10min Chart: NQ

An example of intraday behavior for the NQ is shown from May 12th. Price action opened just above the daily pivot point (black line) and moved lower to test for support. A lift from there broke through R1 (thin green line) and pulled back in methodical fashion before lifting to R2. A break above that resistance and pullback into what is now support then lifted further to new session highs as one would expect from that sequence in the afternoon.
Total price range was just over 40 index points from low to high, an $800 per NQ contract span. Smooth, deliberate, methodical and directional. Terms that apply to the NQ more than any other E-mini index symbol to date.
Summation
All markets are tradable, and all markets are different. Traders who are still struggling to create success and/or searching for their own personal ideal symbol would be wise to consider trading the NQ. It is the #2 E-mini contract in volume and open interest for a reason. Many professional, full-time retail traders are there. A good place to be for those who prefer less noise and more honesty in price moves signaled.

TTT CYCLES

2012-01-12T08:04:00.001-08:00

Good Morning. Anyone who has read this column for any length of time knows that I don't believe in making predictions about the stock market. No, I believe it is critical to check your ego at the door each morning and to spend your time paying attention to what "is" happening in the market as opposed to what you think ought to be happening. You see, I learned a long time ago that Ms. Market doesn't give a hoot about what I think "should" be happening in her game or what "could" happen next. And it is for this reason that I do my darndest to avoid the use of the words "should", "could", or "would" in this business.

This philosophy likely comes from the fact that I was influenced early in my career by the likes of Marty Zweig and Ned Davis. These two men were both rule-based investors who relied on their indicators instead of their gut feel, which can obviously run hot and cold (anybody remember Elaine Garzarelli or Joe "I'm the greatest" Granville?). While I am guessing that you're probably sick of hearing it, one of Mr. Zweig's almost off-handed remarks has stuck with me for the past 20+ years and is just as important today as it was back then. In the late 1980's Zweig said, "Investors who rely on a crystal ball will wind up with an awful lot of crushed glass in their portfolio."

I bring this up (again) because (a) I happen to believe wholeheartedly in this concept and (b) what I'm about to review may sound an awful lot like a prediction. However, before we get started, let's be clear about one thing: I am NOT suggesting that one should invest according to cycles. No, I believe that the best way to succeed in the long run is to stay with your investing strategy/discipline and follow your rules. Although markets can make any set of rules or strategy look silly at times (2011 was a pretty good example), I truly believe this is the key to long-term success in the business of investing.

With that said however, it is interesting to note that cycle analysis has a tendency to provide a very nice overview of what we might expect to see in the days and weeks ahead. I've found over the years that the combination of the rolling one-year, four-year, and ten-year cycles of the stock market is either a great guide to what lies ahead or... wait for it... utterly useless. But, before you click the delete button, when the cycle composite is "on" it tends to be dead on!

One last caveat before we look at what the cycles say is I can't lay claim to the concept here. No, it was the fine folks at Ned Davis Research that originally put together a composite of the rolling one-, four- and ten-year market cycles and keep them updated each year. But since I've likely wasted enough of your time this morning by now, let's go ahead and get to it.

In general, the cycles suggest that 2012 will have something for everyone. The early part of the year is projected to be choppy and with a modestly upward bias. To me, this looks like a continuation of what we've been seeing over the past few months. However, from there, things could get downright ugly as both the four- and ten-year cycles sport meaningful declines from about mid-March through the end of June. (The one-year cycle doesn't contain such a decline. However, the declines seen in the other two cycles simply overpower the one-year.) And from the looks of things, this could be a serious drop.

The good news is that by the time the summer months begin to really heat up, so do the bulls as all three cycles, as well as the composite itself, sport serious rallies during the July through early-September period. How far the bulls run with the ball varies by cycle as the one- and four-year cycles suggest new highs for the year, while the ten-year shows a less energetic advance.

From there, the usual seasonality looks to take over as the cycles project a less serious decline than that seen in the summer when the leaves start to fall, which is then followed by the traditional year-end rally.

So there you have it. Sideways for a few months, a serious decline, a strong recovery, another modest pullback, and the usual rally into New Years. Any questions?

As I stated above, the important thing to keep in mind when looking at this type of analysis is that when the cycles are "on" the market eerily follows the pattern. But once things go off the tracks, it can be quite some time before the market gets back in line. So, although all of the above needs to be taken with about a block of salt, I believe it is worth noting that we could see big swings in stock prices again this year. We shall see.

MOMO

2012-01-11T06:02:00.001-08:00

Good Morning. Yesterday's market headlines from the biggest of the big news websites read: "Stocks Finish at Five Month Highs," "Stocks Notch Another Win," and "Banks Lead Rally." All of which would seem to indicate that the bulls are on a roll right now. And while I think our Market Wrap headline, "Bulls Breakout But Momentum Lacking" may have been a bit more accurate, a picture of the Wall Street bull did indeed adorn the article.

My trusty spreadsheets also tell me that there is no doubt about it; our heroes in horns are winning the game so far in 2012. Stocks were up nicely on Monday, are up on the year, and did finish at the best levels since the summer smashing. Assuming the formulas are still correct, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up +2.00% so far on the year, the S&P 500 has advanced +2.74%, Smallcaps have increased +3.42%, and the NASDAQ is up +3.74%. Not bad, not bad at all.

So why then are so many of my colleagues (people in the business of investing) frustrated these days? Why am I taking calls and explaining the bull case? And why are so many folks complaining about the current trend - especially when these same folks are basically in the bull camp? While I could certainly be wrong, my thinking is that the dissatisfaction with the market is due to the new trend of the market's trend.

Upon further examination of the calls I took yesterday, it occurred to me that while each was, to a caller, bullish, they were also all looking to add long exposure to their portfolios. And in short, there have been few opportunities to do so this year as the point moves seen in the indices have almost all come before the open. Sure, there have been some dips to be bought. But if you were buying at the open on the "good days," you were generally disappointed by the close.

Yes, I know, this is exceptionally short-sided thinking. However, I do find it odd that the stock market's gains are now occurring when the stock market itself is closed. So, unless you are awake at 2:00 am and can click a mouse faster than a computer can execute a trade instruction, you can't get in on these moves. In fact, the trend of the new trends is that the market actually trends lower after the initial joyride to the upside at the open.

My question is where is the follow-through? Or perhaps put more accurately, where are the buyers once the opening bell rings? Why are traders selling into the advances? And finally, is this really the new trend?

My working theory is that the new trend in trends isn't likely to last and can be attributed to the overtly negative macro view amongst so many of the big hedge funds. According to research report from International Strategy & Investment Group, their proprietary gauge of bullishness within the hedge fund community remains at the lowest level since 2009. The report shows that hedge funds, which had a horrible year in 2011, continue to cut their exposure to equities, likely in response to the dour macro outlook in Europe. And although these are supposed to be the most nimble investors around, the hedgies haven't increased their long exposure since the October low.

Thus, I believe it is safe to assume that the intraday selling we've been seeing this year is coming from those folks with a less-than optimistic macro view of the investment world. The good news is that the bulls have been able to prevail thus far. And then the even better news is that if the nattering nabobs of negativism were to find a reason to see that there actually is water in the glass, we might have one heck of a ride to the upside.

So, as someone who is leaning long at the present time, here's to hoping that the new trend in trends doesn't catch on

TAKING THE Q's TO 60.00

2012-01-09T15:22:00.000-08:00

Join today and get 5 QQQ stocks that will leas to QQQ 60.00 next week.

You have read the blog now join for the premium content !

Tom

I AM BUYING NOW 1267.50 ESH11 Futures and LULU

2012-01-08T16:10:00.000-08:00

Hi ,

BUY THE DIPS and my new stock for 1st Quarter LULU

Tom

Join and get 24/7 Buy and sell signals by e-mail all day

PRODUCTION VERSUS ALL OTHER ASSET GROUPS TTT

2012-01-01T09:57:00.000-08:00

TTTHedge.com
Tom the trader & Redliontrader.com & Cathy
December 2011 > 40% gains for the month, > 100% for the quarter!

Below is our trading results for December and the fourth quarter. For those not familiar with our live trading room, we track each trade officially called by our lead traders Tom and Cathy. These trades are logged an results generated each month, quarter and year. These are our monthly and recent quarter results from that tracking. We are one of the only trading groups to openly publish and track trades. If you have any questions, let us know at membership@ttthedge.com.

If you are looking for a team to trade with, and we think trading is a team sport.. give us a try. We are introducing our new pay as you grow plan for just $149/month and if you signup in the next 48 hours, we are going to tack on an additional two weeks free! to that first month. So the next payment will not be until mid February, giving you plenty of time to fit in and learn.

>Yes.. Thank you for the new plan – Sign me up now!<

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TTTHedge.com announced their preliminary tracked trading results for the month of December and the 2011 fourth quarter. Hitting all on 8 cylinders, each of the portfolios put in substantially better than market gains.benchmarked against the SP500 which had about a 1% gain for the month and 11% gain for the fourth quarter on a year that closed flat.

“We continue to show that actively trading accounts in a volatile market outperforms buy and hold strategies. With interest rates at record lows and a market that remained flat for the year, the only way to capture and grow wealth was through smart market timing. We look forward to outstanding performances in 2012. While we are concerned about the fragility of the Eurozone, in general we feel that the markets still have upside left and eagerly await Q4 earnings season to capture a better picture of what is driving the economy.”

December 2011:

Compared against a 1% gain for the SP500 over the same period, the TTTHedge model portfolios, tracked live and independently in our trading room, out performed all the way through the month. Cathy Cullen, trading the Mini account using mostly Russell 2000 TF e-mini contracts continues to amaze us as she leads us through one of the most volatile and leveraged trading instrument available. Our mini account is 100% day trade only with no overnight holds. That is a stellar performance.

Tom Malone, CEO and founder of TTTHedge.com, trades the remaining three accounts leading the trading team and demonstrating that with good market time, courage and conviction the markets are repeatably beatable. The santa rally may not have lived up to everyone’s expectations, but the trading room’s performance for December was outstanding.

Q4 2011

All four portfolios out preformed for Q4. We love the December contracts and they loved us back, helping to hit our quarterly doubling goal in both the Mini and Traders account. Our equities tracked trades we track were also superior, with a longer hold time and less leverage our goal for these accounts is a double each year, a goal that was summarily surpassed.

We want to thank Jay for all his hard work in meticulously tracking a logging each trade. His record keeping makes everything possible.

The elves are busy putting together the year end data and statistics which should be out some time today or tomorrow.

Links:

For those interested in the raw tracked data that generates these number you can access the 2011-Q4 data at this link: 2011-Q4 trades.

TTT DIRECTS HIS EYES FROM 2011 -2012 A MUST READ

2011-12-31T13:34:00.000-08:00

Happy New Year !

I wanted to place a basic chart of what 2011 looked like without too much fanfare as 2011 does not deserve much ! I will go into several main categories of what evolved in 2011 before we send out the data of big wins and heroic trades. Simple fact is TTT Hedge worked extremely hard for every 1% we got and it was not a easy year. We are so lucky to have so many tools at our disposal...our Charts run by Marlin Cobb ( Red) are groundbreaking as is his research and development of indicators proven by a Tradestation @ Award for 2011. I am very lucky to be able to have a gift of seeing talent and Red is one of the greatest gifts TTT Hedge has and we are thankful.

Before I go into 2011 I also wanted to point out Cathy Cullen our Professional day trader in the Traders Live ! room. I have been lucky enough to watch her continue to grow as a Trader and the room has reaped millions of dollars in profits thanks to her daily efforts that improve each month. Cathy will be giving a free webinar in early January and I hope you all can attend ! And finally Jay22 whom tirelessly without complaint does our forensic accounting of every trade made in our @ 4 stage system of profit taking. He is a blessing to all whom want integrity in the results and honesty 24/7 , we also have Jay in our prayers as he lost a loved one over the Holidays and hope his family a speedy return to a great 2012 !

Now on to the sections I want to cover for 2011 , I know it is in the past but as they say about history , we at TTT do not want to repeat any mistakes from 2011. So here goes with my recap.

1) Here , using the chart above we can basically go over what we predicted , what I am saying at the time and bring us into 2012. As everyone knows we finished UNCH for 2011 but 92% of institutions from hedge funds to banks and mutual funds LOST MONEY ! The largest since 2008 and 2000. I had predicted a 25% decline in 2011 ( Check ) but thought it would occur early in the year. I said in FEBRUARY that we had peaked in the MINI Bull that started March 9 2009 and would correct 25%. As the "Arab Spring" arose the market kept getting frothier and finally on May 2nd (Bin Laden Top) was put in as the event ended the Bull and started a New Bear market.

At the top the market was up over 125% in over 2 years and European worries of Sovereign DEBT especially GREECE was a day to day worry....Greece in my opinion got too much attention and is the least of our problems...just my opinion. So we hit a top in sentiment in the Bull in February and PRICE topped out on the killing of the worst living creature on May 2nd. The Bear Market had begun !

After a poor month of May for the Bulls , June was even worse as the Arab uprisings and DEBT issues worldwide combined with the dramatic slowdown from the historic Tsunami in Japan that had Tech companies and all suppliers looking for parts...it was a tough time and many "Gurus" really launched into a double dip mode spectacular ! I was beginning to get my Bullish legs back and took on the naysayers especially the ECRI as they sent to clients only a 100% recession prediction ....never occurred and won't but I literally saw 0% chance of a double dip and had hopes of a quick rebound but the JULY 4th Failure made it clear we were in a Bear market and we had to go day to day until we saw a bottom.

THE CRASH OF 2011 : Eerily similar to 1987 we were set up for disaster as sentiment never really died down and Money managers especially kept a 80% long portfolio and heavy buying of beaten up banks , famed analyst David Tepper amongst others went long ...turning out to be disastrous for many as the BEAR unleashed as GREECE , CHINA , EUROPE and pretty much the world feared another depression and we logged some of the most historic data as we had the "waterfall decline" of the now famous 15 trading days of late July and early August which I missed most of due to health problems , I didn't lose any money but lost a Gall Bladder and years of sleep ! Too much information no doubt but as our Traders Live members I am sure will attest...it was some of the most memorable action ever in US stock market history as the internals will go down as the worst since the 30's.

As a Bull by trade I got a SENTIMENT low ( Time to load up and wait for price) and a TTT Buy signal both our patented 5 day and a mean reversion at August OPEX. The rally was good and with Labor Day approaching I was hoping for a follow thru but another failure occurred in early September that set up reason to believe we were going to new lows and since the Bear was one that had actually LOW RATES and a Good Monetary model...I knew we would have a very short Bear market and called a absolutely perfect bottom of all areas of the market with a Major CYCLICAL LOW and a Yearly High in VIX and shorted VIX and Got leveraged long from there and have stayed mostly leveraged long since.

The miserable action in November set up a huge question mark as now we had Zero lack of confidence in leaders worldwide and actually of the system which again had the Bears shouting 2x Dip even though all the US eco-data was strong ? GDP went .5% -1.5% -2.5% and I had been predicting all year a 3.5% GDP for our 4th quarter just ended...I think we get it...so no Recession....and again a strong rally featuring the most TTT Buy signals in a short time since I began tracking in 1982.

That led us to repeated attempts at 1300 SPX all of which failed into the last day of 2011 ! I still believe we are in a NEW BULL that is just up 20% from the lows and will go another 40-60% by the time it ends with no more than a 8-10% correction.

WHAT FACTORS ARE INFLUENCING POOR RETURNS IN STOCKS ?

This next section will take into account WHY I think we are here and what I think here is !

1) Lack of confidence ...The world has lost faith in the systems to make money via the capital markets which is why GOLD had the parabolic run it did. No faith in anything but a bar of metal ...currencies were all shaken due to Massive debt and the rumor of the day on new bank failures and not only banks but countries. We had zero political leadership worldwide , China was / is only caring about China...Europe is wallowing in self destructive governments that believe they can work 30 hours 200 days a year and be allowed a great retirement...this along with The US Housing debacle made every banker every country leery of doing business with each other and you may call the 2011 year a year of 100% mistrust in one another and this lack of confidence led to really a spectacular failure in stocks and funds especially in emerging markets...if not for the USA worker and our perseverance as entrepreneurial spirit it could have been much worse.

We did lose Steve Jobs this year who in essence saved the year with the most stellar stock action gadgets and earnings growth...we will miss him but AAPL lives on as still one of the best companies ever listed ...ever and Mr. Jobs with all of his faults a Edisonian like presence still exists...so to end our lack of confidence segment...we hope the spirit of the AAPL CEO lives on " Your time is limited so don't waste it living someone else's life ".

2) EUROZONE : The gift that keeps on giving (For the Bears )

My official view is that when all is said and done (2013) we will look back and say "All that time and worry wasted ". The EURO itself is like a Spring Chicken....considering it's history it is amazing it has endured it's infancy but here we are ...some say at the brink. Led By Greece, Italy and Spain ... their massive debt and inability for the world to let them off the hook has led to some of the most dramatic TALKS but until last week , very little action. The ECB and IMF both have had periods of ignorance and self loathing...which has led the herd of naysayers to short the Hell out of the banks ...which leads me too on of our most profitable OPTIONS ALERTS plays of 2011 DB DEUTSCH BANK. ( Promo for our Options Alert service !)

Yes the EURO ZONE is entering recession but my view is very shallow as the US and China keep the balance and the Draconian austerity measures especially by Great Britain lead other countries not just to VOW BUT DO ! The USA could take notice of the UK effort and demand a balanced budget by 2013 but let's stay away from POLITICS as we will have plenty into November 6th 2012 as your VOTE will count and the heads of the folks in Washington from the President to local councils and Judges will be shaken to start doing the right thing for America... " Ask not what your country can do for you Ask what you can do for your country" ...yes some JFK would do us baby boomers whom complain about government and their taxes ?

The worst case scenario is a drop of 1-2 countries from the EURO if they do not jump on board the new and improved actions...(watch yields on Italian and Spanish bonds) as the ECB does the same thing the USA has and continues to do ...print Money and buy Bonds. In short , I am thinking much less about Europe and much more about our next section.

3) China : What Are They Really Up to ?

A massive Crash caused by property values , illegal accounting and slow growth. Join Jim Chanos the famed short who right now is grinning ear to ear as his trade to Short CHINA is very productive...personally I have tried like many to catch bottoms in FXI BIDU and many China related vehicles only to see new lows. We have not been Helped by China nor have we been hurt but I will tell you one thing....If the military buildup and the continuing raising of reserve requirements continues another year....we will be wishing we were Mr. Chanos but I also believe last week China may have made a bottom in it's Bear market so if we look at it this way ....If China has the best interests of it's people at heart ( Do communists have heart ? ) China will be a huge positive again into 2013. Inflation is China and India's worst enemy and it is dropping as they both cool but lack of resources will haunt this huge populations forever so we need to play the resources to FEED and Cloth and Warm those Massive economies...CHINA is a BUY here in 2012....not with all you got but like a Speculative stock ..1-3% OF YOUR PORTFOLIO...perfect play TDF Templeton is the best !

Finally if we can stop the accusations and China finally can handle the truth as a currency manipulator and pirate of our tech and patented goods...we will all be better off...we need China but not as bad as we need China to be a ally...for now ...keep an eye on them , but make sure we do not cross them off as they are the world's 2nd largest economy. Speaking of poor accounting rules ...this leads me to our markets and the SEC FTC etc...

4) HIGH FREQUENCY TRADING REPLACED INVESTING IN 2011

It is too bad but yes , the individual investor Died and may he R.I.P. The computers took control as the SEC allowed the 3X ETF world and Black Pools and untraceable MF Global Funds to highlight a year of some of the most disappointing Federal Government inaction ever. People scream about a lot in government but look at our SEC ? Ms Shapiro is the most ineffective leader (sorry) we have seen and she gets worse bowing to anyone who can keep the status quo status ? I have taken my concerns to the SEC and their divisions and hope that change will occur...as of the last trading day of 2011 a unreal 71.9% of all trades made in 2011 were buy HFT style algos and it doesnt seem to end as the SEC has ruled the "No tick " rule as a dinoasaur ( even though it has now been sited as the cause with housing) of the 2008 stock market Crashes. If the nonsense continues in 2012...there will be action taken or inaction as pensions and Ira's are subject to go to cash FOREVER ...this knocks out a trillion dollar industry...do we want that ?

As Traders we adjust miraculously in 2011 , thanks to Cathy and our members even I was able to adopt some day trade rules and strategies that were 88% + successful and led us to some massive gains in our 1-5 day traders account !

My wish for 2012 ...simple : A new "No Tick " Rule and a moratorium on ETF's and any ETF with less than 1 million volume per day must hang it up ...delist...get the money back into STOCKS and out of ETF's or all our careers may be shortened ! Speaking of short careers ...if our 3 worst trades of 2011 were our only we would be ....not here !

5) THREE WORST TRADES OF 2011

A) DRYS

B) UNG

C) TBT

Enough said !

6) Finally my last words on where we sit right now and the next e-mails will give details of our portfolios and services results and they will be staggering !

I firmly believe we are in a NEW BULL MARKET that began October 4th and is up about 20% since the lows. I expect a pick up in action this week to at least clear 1300 SPX but then get set for some earnings misses and a rise in VIX in Mid January into February , but the 1075 level on SPX cash will not be broken in my lifetime !

I am confident we are in a LONGER more drawn out period of a Bull...maybe even a Secular Bull ? I want to put my sites on 1410 SPX cash for the end of 2012 and look forward to a recovery in emerging markets.

Again my Target for year end is 1410 cash SPX 2012 and I do not think we will ever go under 1075 again !

I will update you all with a separate e-mail with my top 20 stocks. Top Sectors and ideas on takeovers in 2012 ...I hope you enjoyed this missive and look forward to a lot more over the weekend.

May the New Year Bring You Health and Great Times With Family !

God Bless You !

Tom

TTT INTO 2012

2011-12-31T06:41:00.000-08:00

Happy New Year !

If the week heading into New Years day is weaker that The week earlier be prepared for a launch by the Bulls ,We have a extremely Rare Bullish setup going into 2012 so take a membership here today and get my 2012 top 20 stocks ETF;s and takeover plays and how you can make 15% NEXT week. Last week we made 100% on Spy 119.00 calls this week QQQ 55.00 Calls will double.

Make money in 2012 not mistakes Join for pennies a day TODAY

TTT

TTT NEW POSITIONS

2011-12-27T14:01:00.000-08:00

Hi ,

We have a new portfolio to be unveiled , why not make the best investment decision you have ever made.

Click and see how we make 100% per quarter using good stocks good options and GREAT FORECASTING.

Tom

TNA

TTT VIX ENOUGH IS ENOUGH BUY XIV

2011-12-24T08:33:00.000-08:00

Hi and Merry Christmas ,

One of my best calls of 2011 was the TOP in VIX , I used XIV a very low cost ETF to make huge gains while buying cheap calls that are up over 1200% , If you want 24/7 service for pennies a day from a 36 year pro...why not sign up today for the best present a investor can have ?

Tom

XIV

WOW WHAT A RUN ! MORE TO COME ?

2011-12-20T13:24:00.000-08:00

WE did take profits today after being so leveraged long ...but we are looking to reenter...join me as I try to double our money this next week or so ! SPY calls were up 100% 119.00 calls NICE

TTT

TERRIBLE TUESDAY OR BUYING OPP ?

2011-12-14T06:41:00.000-08:00

Good Morning. Long time readers know that I am a stout believer in the idea that there is usually a reason behind a good-sized market move. I'm not talking about 50 point swings in the Dow that can happen at any point of any day for little or no reason other than somebody clicking a button. No, I'm talking about a move of at least 1% or more (in either direction) within a short period of time - you know, something that gets your attention.

Yesterday's session had a couple/three of these moves and for the most part, the reasons behind the early moves were fairly obvious. We saw a nice pop in the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index as well as an uptick in sentiment in Germany to get things started off on the right foot. And when Angela Merkel said "nein" to the idea of increasing the size of the bailout fund, the swift dive in stock prices made sense.

However, what didn't make much sense at all was the -2.1% header the S&P 500 took after the Fed released its statement yesterday afternoon. Sure, some volatility directly before and after a Fed announcement is standard fare. And this time was no different. But then after the requisite post-announcement move, things got ugly. And then they got really ugly - all on no news. And since you know that I am obsessed with finding the "reason" behind such movements, it shouldn't surprise you to learn that shortly thereafter, I suddenly found myself on a mission.

To be sure, the Fed statement was NOT the cause of the move from 1246 to 1220 on the S&P. While I will agree that a small segment of the trading population may have been disappointed that the Fed didn't introduce any changes to their communication efforts, the Fed's announcement and accompanying statement was really a non-event.

After checking my news sources (you'd think that of the 150 news flash emails I get a day, one would have held the key) I found nothing to speak of. Frankly, I didn't think a potential ban on the use of cell phones by drivers was worthy of a big dive. And while there was a rumor that there might be a high profile downgrade near the close, nothing ever materialized. So then I really started digging.

After a search of my favorite websites and a few calls to my fellow market geeks turned up nothing (well, nothing more than the usual rumors of yet another well-timed downgrade by S&P - don't get me started), I started looking at charts. And before long the answer became obvious - the Euro was in the process of falling off of a cliff.

While the macro guys/gals were explaining that it was disappointment over the inability of EU leaders to get a handle on this crisis that was the cause of the Euro's strife and that it was the economic outlook for the Eurozone that was the source of the stock market's sudden ills, I felt that there could be other forces at work. You see, a falling Euro means a rising dollar. And what does a rising dollar mean? Yep that's right, the unwinding of dollar carry trades.

Lest we forget "carry trades" are a big deal in the global macro hedge fund world. The way this trade works is a fund will borrow (or short) dollars and invest the proceeds in risk assets. With rates at 0% in the U.S., this works out really well. Until the dollar starts to rise, that is. If the dollar starts to surge, your short dollar trade begins to struggle. So what do you do? You buy dollars to cover your short and sell the risk assets. So, with the Euro breaking down yesterday and the dollar moving to the highest level in nearly a year, the dollar-carry trade may have been on the run.

Normally, a rising dollar would be a good thing for U.S. investors. After all, a rising dollar is indicative of economic strength - even if that strength is only relative. But in this case, there probably wasn't much thinking going on. No, my guess is that yesterday's "reason" for the quick loss of 2% for the S&P had more to do with math wizards and their computerized trades driven by algorithms than any macro view or economic strategy. And from where I sit, this is just plain sad.

So, is there a reason for big moves these days? I say yes. But whether or not the reason makes any sense to anyone except the big wigs on Wall Street is a question for another day.

TTT BUY SIGNAL AT 1210 SPX CASH Targets 1300

2011-12-12T20:06:00.000-08:00

Hi ,

Just a few points from TTT as we go into the last 14 trading sessions
of the year. Right now we are UNCH on the year , even the Dow being up
versus inflation is NOT a good year...but we have 14 trading sessions
left and even with the implosion of VIX on Friday...there is still
lots of 200-300 point gains and losses left in 2011 ! I wanted to just
give a brief description of what I saw for this year and what I see
for next.

Last year I forecasted a 25% decline in the market BUT I thought it
would be in the 1st half not into Fall. I said the market would reach
1355 SPX cash at years end ...we touched it on the last day of April
and now we are looking for it again ! We did ... in my opinion reach a
Sentiment Top in February and a Price Top in April of the Bull market
that started on March 9th 2009. That "Mini Bull" took us up well over
100 % and then came back and we suffered a "Mini BEAR" market from
that February-April to our Cycle low of 1075 on Oct 4th where I called
the bottom and predict still we will get a 50-60% run up within 18
months i.e. March 2013. So 1500 + by march 2013 is my best read.

TTT HEDGE TAKES ON THE REST OF 2011 AND 2012 !

Over the year we have seen HFT control 70-80% of the volume so we have
literally had to become computers to be successful , many think this
is "not right' or not real investing....well , as my Mentor Dr.martin
Zweig always said "The cash spens the same all across the country !"
So whether you are able to outwit Wall Street or if you would rather
sit back and make 1% is up to you.

I personally feel strongly that we need to manage our own accounts and
be responsible with the resources we have and with all the
entitlements going down the drain for us Baby boomers I would look 2x
at your investment strategies and see if there is some room for one of
our services in your 2012 investing year. We look to these next 3
weeks as key to not only the US stock markets but the World as we are
now a 24/7 globalized economy with literally 100's of data points a
day to keep track of or someone else will beat you to the trade. We
here at TTT are looking for another great end of the year and want to
open up membership trials again January 1st 2012 to take advantage of
our market forecasting for the day trade the swing trade and the long
term trade. We are currently on a TTT mean reversion BUY signal that
should get us above 1300 SPX by Christmas.

I want to thank our loyal members and also my partner Marlin Cobb who
has worked diligently on all aspects of the market and our business
but has become a great trader and friend to all who see his efforts.

Also our Day Trade professional Cathy and our Forensic Accountant Jay
whom have worked so hard and kept integrity and professionalism to our
room.

And finally our dozens of Webinar speakers and educators , we plan on
at least 12 more in 2012 and we will not stop trying to get anyone who
gives us a shot , the very best this profession has to offer. Take
some time and look over our plans and thoughts and we will be ready
for you soon....will you be ready for the NEW BULL that began October
4th and will last well into 2013 ? All members will get our annual
report and predictions with long stock picks and some short plays with
all the big trades and the calls for 2012...the big edition will
arrive January 1st so if you can join by then , that will be a special
bonus to new members !

Sincerely ,

TTT