Thought I could buy this

It used to be when people saved money they put it in a “savings” account and there it would gradually build a little interest and the savings would grow.  There were also Certificates of Deposit, and Bonds, and a few other saving vehicles in which one could put their money and gradually see their “Savings” increase.

Then enter “Investment Savings”.  These are more in the line of what I’m talking about as Perceived Savings.  While the money put into this type of an account is real.  The actual value of the account is not known till the money is taken out of the account.  As long as it is in the account it has no “Real” value.  But we treat it in our minds as if it does.  We think of it as our “Savings”.  But it really is just Perceived as Savings.

Last year when we saw the economy meltdown.  A lot of the Perceived Saving disappeared.  Perceived Wealth turned into Perceived Poverty.

But This is what I could afford

Granted before FDIC the same could happen to savings in a Bank.  But the reason for FDIC is so those dollars in savings are real dollars and guaranteed.  We might not gain much in that kind of a savings account, but we won’t loose money in it.

Why Investment Savings?

Because, while the risks are greater in this kind of an account so are the returns.  (At least that’s the idea).  There is a funny think about this type of an account that is a lot like gambling.  I mean,  we remember the gains in the account on good days and while we suffer through those down days, we tend to forget them quickly.

I’ve observed a few people at the Blackjack Table (I’ve never played myself)  I’ve seen some take $20 and turn it into over $1000.  But before the night was over they needed a ride back to their hotel.  The $1000 was gone along with the original $20.  Did they win a $1000 at Blackjack?  Yes, they did.  Did they loose more than a $1000 at Blackjack?  Yes, they did.

Investment accounts these days are like a wild roller coaster ride.  Up huge one day and down huge the next couple.  Of course if you know when to get out and when to get back in you can make a good return on your “investment”.  However, there are few who can do that consistently.

But back to my main point.  Those invested dollars aren’t real dollars.  Yet we “Plan” our economic future and strategy for the future based on a calculation of future returns in those investment accounts.  The end result for many in the past 5 years, Perceived Savings ended up being Real Poverty.

As long as the perception of the economy was that it was humming along and everyone was making money we were all pretty convince everything would work out in the end.  That no longer holds true.

Investment Savings are Looking Up

Those 401K accounts of 2007 that became 101K accounts last year are mostly back to 201 or 301K accounts for many.  And a sense of Perceived Savings is returning.  Remember, as long as the money is in the account it isn’t really there until we take it out.

Perceived Savings can, and often does lead to misconceptions of our true personal economic situation.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

If we remove Green Valley from the mix it comes in at 5.75 months of inventory.  Not sure why Green Valley is in the 13 areas of Tucson in the first place.  But it is.  I might consider removing that area for next year.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

I think the reduced inventory, reduced sale price and increased confidence in the economy is driving more buyers into the Tucson market.  Last year during the fall snowbird buying season the economy was in such turmoil and talk of a Great Depression loomed everywhere.  The end result everyone sat on large purchases and expenditures.  The running joke was “Since my 401K is now a 101K I can’t afford to buy a home right now even if I wanted to.”

But a year down the road and the outlook isn’t quite as bleak.  These sales were all recorded before the extended and expanded Tax Credit.

Month over Month

September to October 2009

The number of active listings jumped up by a couple hundred in October.  This is a bit of a surprise but even more so when considered against new listings for October 2008.  There were more homes put on the market this October than last.  However,  The closed transactions were much healthier than last year with a recorded 59 more this year than last.

But that’s not the whole story.  Because those transactions are continuing to come in.  There were 1021 for the report, but 1046 are currently in the system.  This means the actual number increased over September by 84 not 59.  These additional transactions made the difference between 6 months inventory and just under 6 months inventory.  A significant difference? No, but why do they post gas as $2.29.999 cents instead of $.230, get the point.

Active and New listings have increased.  This to in rather normal due to the number of people wanting to have their homes on the market for the snowbirds coming to Tucson to look for a new winter (second) home.  And there are those looking to make this their permanent home soon.

Year over Year

Compared to October 08 it is a mixed bag of information.  For Buyers it is pretty much all Good.  For sellers, it isn’t as bad as it might seem.

For Buyers, lower prices, but fewer homes to chose from.  Better interest rates than last year and for first time home buyers up to $8,000 tax credit.  For those buying a primary residence up to $6,500 tax credit.  Active listing increased so you have more to choice.  But be aware, these figures for Average and Median sale price includes a whopping 42% of Short Sale and REO transactions.  Remove these transactions from the data and the Average and Median prices jump up considerably.  Don’t expect to buy a move in ready home in these price ranges.

For Sellers, unless you are in a neighborhood or subdivision with massive Short sale and REO properties you are facing a more realistic pricing situation now than in the past.  Your home never was “worth” what it would have sold for in the past 3 years.  Those were inflated figures,  And the home owners that borrowed against that false equity are the ones in Short Sale and REO now.  Reality is a tough pill to swallow, but if you have owned your home from more than 5 years you should still be able to turn a profit on the sale of your home.

Moving up you will find prices more affordable and probably with a lower interest rate than you were paying before.  Downsizing, you will have some money to put in the bank, because you can buy more home for less now than you could in the past few years.

Sellers are usually buyers also.  Don’t get greedy on the sell side and loose sight of the opportunities you now have on the buy side.  Sometimes we can’t let go of those false high prices of a few years ago.  Do yourself a favor, let go.  Need help doing so, get an appraisal yourself.  It will give you a sense of where your home should be priced in today’s market and provide a basis to potential buyers for your asking price.

For the complete October Statistics report you can find it in the sidebar under Documents.  It is PDF and you can download and save a copy.

If you don’t want to look for it in the sidebar.  Well, here you go: Tucson MLS Statistics Report October 2009

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

The Games Are Afoot

This weekend of this festival came before I knew it and I didn’t have a post prepared for this years event.  Then this morning I decided to attend some of the event.  Specifically I wanted to hear the “Brothers” from Australia.  I read in the paper they were performing 4 sessions during the two day event.  This morning I went to the website for the festival and found it a nightmare to navigate and try and find schedules and quick information.  Thus this post.

The Scottish Highland Games

Where:  Rillito Park near River and First

The games run both today and tomorrow.  This schedule I did find rather easily.  Here is the direct link to the Scottish Highland Games 2009.

Fees to attend the Festival and Games

This also wasn’t easily located.  You have to scroll down on this page to find the fee schedule.

In brief:

Parking $2

Entrance for Adults $12  with a can good for the food bank $10

For a complete breakdown of age groups fees check the page mentioned above and scroll down.

Music Schedule for Celtic Festival

This one I couldn’t find at all.  It listed who but not when.  Therefore I decided even at this late date to write this post for those looking online for information on what music will be on stage when. Since it is already Noon, I’ll skip the acts already over.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Quick Flickr Slide Show from Today

Just one glimpse of the fun at this years chili cook-off

The firefighters chili cook-off is going on today from 10 am to 10 pm.  It is now about 4 pm.  I was there  from 11:30 to 1 pm.  Talk about a Rocking place.  It was a blast.  I got quite a few photos to post to flickr for everyone to see in a couple of days.  But it isn’t too late to head down there for a lot of fun and loud music which I’m sure you will love.

The food is great and the Firefighters are really putting on a great show.  The booths are every bit as good as last year and the costumes are “Totally Shameless”.

It is held at El Presideo park behind the Pima Country Courthouse.  Grab some cash and ear plugs and join in on the fun this evening.  It isn’t too late.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Bridging the Gap between buyers and inventory

The number of closed residential transactions for October far exceeded anyone’s expectations.  In October of 2008 there were 846 closed transactions;  in October of 2007 884.  There were no high expectations the number would go above 900 this year.  But as the week progressed the sales blew right through the 900 mark.

Tucson MLS Data Pull

The data was pulled this morning for the October Statistics report.  As usual we expect there to be some late sales entered into the system.  This is pretty common even at $250 a pop.  The number of late entries have slowed since the fine was imposed for missing the deadline to have transactions entered, but it still amounts to between 10 and 20 sales per month.  Yes, that is enough to make a statistical difference.

The number of Short sales and REO transactions make up just over 42% of the total transactions for the month.  This removes even more of these homes from the active inventory.

Tucson Market Trend Indicators

I’ll be looking to see what the number of active listings are going into November.  I’m also interested in the Absorption rate for the various areas of Tucson.  I know it is getting hard to find exactly what buyers are looking for. (I’m not just talking price either)  The number of homes on the market has declined significantly this year.

The fact of a falling inventory seems to have been lost in the media.  It has focused instead on foreclosures and the lack of new construction.  The number of homes available for purchase and move in have been reduced to a point not seen in several years.

The last thing I want to see which is the other indicator of the direction of the market is the number of Pending contracts going into November.

Positive Signs for Tucson Real Estate Market

There are a lot of positive signs in this market and if I were a builder I’d be thinking strongly about getting some new homes ready for purchase.  It looks like there will be buyers in the market going into 2010 and there aren’t a lot of homes ready for them to purchase.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

It will recover, it always does

We had two days of Winter in October.  It got down to 34 degrees one night this past week.  I think it was a little colder than that on our patio.  Don’t ask me how I know, I just do.

I was saying to everyone yesterday (When it was 75 degrees) “We had two days of winter in Tucson and now it’s over.”

Then today it jumped up to 85 so far, but it might make it up to 86 before the afternoon is over.

What about the rest of the week.

Oh, it’s going to be in the mid 80’s all week.

Are the Snowbirds coming to Tucson?

No, they are already here.  How do we know.  There are tell tale signs of the arrival of snowbirds in Tucson.

1. Traffic around town doubles
2. Out of state license plates are everywhere
3. Restaurants are happy again
4. RV Parks are filling up all over town
5. Second home buyers are back in the market
6. Golf courses are filling up

Those are a few of the ways we know the snowbirds are back in Tucson.

Why so early?

There are a couple of reasons:

• The weather has turned cold and two things drive snowbirds to Tucson  cold weather and snow
• This is an off year for elections.

Many people will stay home to vote on elections.  But this year, many either don’t have local elections or they were able to vote absentee.

The weather is Wonderful in Tucson

Every year I say the same thing when it gets to be November.  “This is why we live in Tucson”.  The next 8 months are going to be great.  Shorts, sandals and outdoor eating will fill the schedules and lots of good grilling smells will fill the air.

Tucson Golf Homes

I did mention that golf courses start filling up this time of year.  It is true.  And to make the search easier for those wanting to buy a home on or near a golf course I’ve put together a new set of searches to make it “EASY” to search for golf homes in Tucson.  I’ll be writing some more about this tomorrow, but for those wanting a sneak peek, here is the link to Tucson Golf Homes.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Searching from Your Own Home

Searching for a Tucson Home

Most people today start their search for a Tucson Home on the internet. It is easy to set up searches and have the results of those searches dropped right into your email account. But one thing we notice over and over again on an almost daily basis.

Some of the email services bounce back the emails as undeliverable for one reason or another. Why? Most often it is because they have software in place which uses the logic “If a certain number of emails are coming through our service from the same email address it must be spam”.

I can understand this if there are hundreds of thousands of the same email going out.  But that isn’t the case from the Tucson MLS or our own IDX emails to those of you searching.  Yet sites like AOL and Hotmail often block your subscription emails for listings.  You ask for them but your email provider has determined them to be spam and simply refuse delivery.  They don’t put them in a spam folder for you to decide, they refuse delivery.

You never know the email was sent.  This Doesn’t Happen With Gmail

Can you Send More Photos

One of the things clients often ask during the home shopping process is for more photos than are available from the Tucson MLS.  We go out to the home and take all the additional photos requested.  Want to see if the kitchen cabinets have pull-outs.  [Snap]  What does the laundry room look like? [Snap]  What does the side yard look like? [Snap].  Now we can size those photos down smaller.  But you want to see big pictures.  And we often are sending more than 20 photos.  With Gmail you can get those large photos zipped into a single file and sent easily to you.

You found your home now it is time for Docs to go by email

Once you have decided to make an offer on a home the documents begin to flow.  This is usually by email.  Offers/Counter Offers, addendums, BINSR, BINSR Response, Clue Reports, Estimates, etc.

There are a lot of documents to be scanned and emailed.  But wait there is more.  Some of these documents when scanned and placed in a PDF are more than 10 megabytes in size.  Many email accounts limit the size of an email to 10 megabytes.  This means they can’t be sent to you by email.  This Doesn’t Happen With Gmail.  Gmail doesn’t have a small file attachment limit on an email.  We have never had an email with docs attached kick back (be rejected) from a gmail account.

Gmail is Free

Gmail is free.  And you can have as many gmail accounts as you want.  You can open your gmail in any browser.  You can get gmail sent to your cell phone or blackberry if your provider/device has a gmail app.

We have the Gmail Notifier on our computers, it is a little envelope that lets us know as soon as an email arrives.  I keep Gmail on one of my browser tabs all the time.

GTalk,  I also use the gtalk which is a quick instant messenger type service built right into gmail.  I have this on my blackberry as well and makes it easy to stay in touch with people that have a quick question or just want to talk.

More than one Email Account  Send them to Gmail

I have a couple of gmail accounts and a couple that aren’t gmail at all.  But I never have to remember to go to those accounts.  Instead I have those emails from non-gmail accounts sent (POP) to my gmail account.  They come in and are identified from where they came right into my Gmail account. All my email in one place.

Gmail Make the Home Buying Process Simpler

When we see the email address is Gmail we always breath a sigh of relief.  We know emails, documents, and all communications done by email will be smooth and easy.  No “I didn’t get that email” message will be coming in.  No “Mail Delivery” notification will be received when we send out docs or photos.

Don’t have a gmail account?  Want to get one?  Here’s where you go to sign up.

Need a Google Account Sign in Here  Get a Google Account

Have a Google Account but not an email account  Get Gmail Account

There are few things that make life really easier and are free.  Gmail for me is one of those things.  Once you get started using a Gmail account you will wonder what took you so long.  Custom Themes, Auto Signature, etc.  There are a lot of great features and ways to customize your Gmail account.

Gmail Themes

Make the home buying process simpler with a Gmail email account.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Sunrise in Tucson

The sun isn’t up yet on this side of Tucson.  It is funny how a few mountains can effect the time the sunlight hits the land around us.  My Dad lives on the other side of Tucson a few miles away.  His view of the East and sunrise isn’t blocked by mountains.  He sees the early morning light at least 45 minutes before we do on this side of town.

The weather is cool now but not cold.  Most nights we can sleep with the door open and the fan brings in the cool night air.  Morning temperature right now is around 54 degrees.  The highs this next week will be in the mid 80’s.

We can wear shorts and sandals during the day and even a long sleeve shirt if we want.  The humidity is down around the 10 percent mark.

This is called “Fat Paper Day” around our house.  Sometimes the days run together.  But we can center our compass again on the morning the fat paper arrives in the driveway.

Putting on our Thing 1 and Thing 2 shirts and heading out to McDonalds to read the paper, share stories we find and see how many of the puzzles we can solve is centering.  (Some times we wear our Incredibles Shirts, the kids love them).

This is our favorite time of year in Tucson.  If you want to see amazing sunrise and sunsets.  If being warm and only seeing snow on the mountains and not in your driveway sounds appealing, come on down.  There’s plenty of sunshine and warmth to go around, here in Tucson.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Tucson Skyline at Sunset and Moon Down

Tucson is located in the desert Southwest where the air is crisp and clean most of the year. When fall arrives the humidity from Monsoon Season drops and the heat cools to a moderate temperature.

The sunsets are amazing here many evenings.  But I’ll be honest in summer when it is over 100 degrees outside at sunset, I’m not outside to watch it.  I sometimes see the red shadows cast on the Catalina Mountains to the East and know it was a “Good One”.

Now that fall has arrived, it is wonderful to be able to sit outside on a patio and watch the sun go down over the mountains.

The other night we got a special treat.  The sun had set about 15 minutes before the moon.  While the sky was still blaze orange the fingernail moon slipped beneath the horizon.  I was fortunate to have camera and tripod with me at the time.

Till the sun set I hadn’t even noticed the moon in the sky.  The sunlight was so bright the slip of the moon wasn’t obvious.  Then there it was following the sun over the mountains.

Hope you enjoy it.  Have a great weekend (what’s left of it).

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Looking for a day trip to take this weekend?  Check out Globe, AZ.

Globe, AZ is one of those launching points for us. We live in Oro Valley on the Northwest side of Tucson. Getting to Globe is pretty simple. Take Oracle Rd which is AZ State Route 77 to Globe. It is about 80 miles away and there is a lot of pretty country between Tucson and Globe.

There is a lot to see around town. Here are a few of the sites. Take the day and drive the streets around town, not just the main roads. Old downtown has some amazing architecture. The old Bank building with marble facade that is now a nail saloon; makes you wonder.

The centennial clock is worth a look as is the train depot across the parking lot. For contrast the church across the street has old and new buildings. And who could leave out the tepee.

For a great meal try Jerry’s on State Route 60. I had “the sink” try it.

Just out of Globe on 70 there is the Apache Gold Casino, and the airport there has some old planes, (well almost planes) The dirt road at the end of the airport runway will take you for a long long adventure in the desert. (No sports cars). Don’t venture to far in there, no maps or street signs either and you won’t go far before there is no cell service either.

Globe is a great place for a day trip and a good launching point for many destinations out of Tucson in the higher elevations and cooler temps.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

REO and Short Sales 43% of Closed Transactions

The number of homes sold in July that were REO and Short Sales were about 16% of the total.  Now in September it was 414 out of 962 closed transactions bringing it to just over 43%.  We are hearing from buyers coming in to the market in the next few weeks looking for more “bargains” and they are finding that even when not looking for a bargain the number of homes matching what they are looking are a handful not compared to lots of options before.  The store shelves aren’t as full of choices as they used to be and what is there often isn’t what anyone wants.

The number of people with the skills or the pockets to bring an REO up to the standard of a home you want to live in are few.  It can end up costing more to renovate these homes than to buy one that has been well maintained and is “move in ready”.

Our market in Tucson reminds me of the old Fram filter commercial where the guy says “You can pay me now or pay me later”  Translated to housing, some homes with a bargain purchase price aren’t a bargain at all.

Tucson Absorption Rates for September 2009

I think the area that caught my eye as I was putting this together was the South.  With a total of 385 available properties and 100 sold in September it means there is 2.85 months of inventory in that area.  That’s not a lot to chose from.

When you put together your price range, number of bedrooms, baths, acres, location, garage spaces and style of home the availability of properties drops off rather rapidly.  Sometimes we used to be able to show 100 homes matching these criteria.  These days it can be as few as 2 or 3 depending on what it is the buyer is looking for.

We are holding pretty steady at the 6 months of inventory for overall areas in Tucson.  Now we push on into the Fourth Quarter and begin to wonder if there will be a housing shortage by the end of the year.  Time will tell.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

It held it’s own against last month with only 18 fewer closed transactions.  It held it’s ground on last year with just 3 fewer.    But wait, wasn’t last year a total collapse of the market and we didn’t even close as many as last year?  I”m glad you asked that question.  Once again History.

• Year     Aug.     Sept.   Diff
• 2005    1807     1474     333
• 2006    1414     1095     319
• 2007    1084       769     315
• 2008      923       965    + 42
• 2009      980       962    – 18

The trend from Aug to Sept over the past 5 years tends to show a big drop from Aug to Sept.  last year was an exception as was this year.  But also not the 57 additional sales in Aug 09 over 08 with only 18 fewer transaction in Sept. 09  Thus the sigh of relief for the market in general.

Let’s Do the Numbers

August 09 to September 09

Pending contracts are holding nicely on into October.  This is our predictor for a couple of months into the future.  Active listings keep creeping down even thought he number of new listing crept down.  Average Sale price dropped another $2,871 as the number of short sales and REO properties increased in percentage again this month over last. Of the 962 closed transactions there were 85 Short Sales and 329 REO Properties.

Year Over Year

September 08 compared to September 09

These number speak for themselves.  We know the market is stabilizing.  The number of pending contracts combined with the falling inventory and number of new listings is a plus.  The falling average and median sale price is a plus if you are on the buying side of the equation.  But not as big a minus on the selling side as you might think for the resale market.  Yes, there are exceptions.  But most residential resales in market ready condition are doing quite well price wise even in this market.  Are they getting 2007 prices?  NO, but everyone says that market was a bubble and unrealistic.  So why do we compare today’s sale prices with an unrealistic past.  Expectations always seem to run counter to reality.

The Third Quarter Closed

Finally a few more numbers you might be interested in.  Third quarter over First

• Total unit sales are up 39.48%
• Total sales volume us up 34.52%
• Average Active listings down 19.99%
• Pending Contracts up 4.63% and over 09/08 up 59.45%

We are headed into one of our buying season with a greatly reduced available inventory in some areas.  It will be an interesting Forth quarter.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Cooler Weather has Arrived in Tucson

One of the things we have been trying to do this year is take more day trips out of Tucson to find other interesting places in Arizona. Especially places in summer when it is over 100 degrees in Tucson.  Places where the temps aren’t in the triple digits, usually at higher elevations and there are things called “Trees” there.

But the trips aren’t just limited to the Summer months.  As the Fall progresses we’ll try and take trips to the mountains where the fall colors turn with some drama because there are “Trees”. (Notice a theme here?)

Some of the recent ventures have even been outside of Arizona, but within an 8 hr. drive from Tucson.

We have one planned for tomorrow and Wednesday.  We are heading up to Hannagan’s meadow, on to Pinetop and Show Low before coming back to Tucson late Wednesday evening.  The plan is to take a lot of photos of the trip and post them here along with the information about the route and what we found along the way. (at least that’s the plan)

Tucson in the Fall

Once the heat breaks there are a lot of things to do around town on the weekends.  This coming weekend is no exception.  Briefly here are  a couple of things:

SAHBA Home and Garden show Fall 2009

The SAHBA Home and Garden show October 9 – 11 at the Tucson Convention Center  There are discount tickets for this event all over Tucson, (Try Fry’s) There is one on the website for the show as well.

Patagonia Fall Festival 2009

The Patagonia Fall Festival October 9 – 11 at Patagonia, AZ  (Wow now who is buried in Grant’s tomb)

The weather is windy, but cooler.  Looks like it will be a great week here in Tucson.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Mt Lemmon Community Center

When it is 106 outside I don’t even think about Oktoberfest.  But on Mt. Lemmon, they can’t wait each year for October to get here so they start Oktoberfest in the middle of September.

I admitted last year I was late to getting to this.  I’ll chalk it up to all the hot weather we have had this year.  But there are still plenty of Brats to be eaten and sauerkraut  to be smelled on the mountain.

The Celebration will continue to day as the third weekend of Oktoberfest comes to a close.

Next weekend will be the last of the four weekends that make up Mt Lemmon Oktoberfest.

Information is sketchy at best for this years events.  It goes till 5 pm.  There is a fee for getting on the mountain and a $4 parking fee (so I’ve heard).

The weather is cool and it will certainly feel like a German Oktoberfest right here in the Arizona Southwest.

If you can’t make it up the mountain today.  Put it on your calendar for next weekend as it will be the last for this year.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Tucson Oktoberfest Oct. 1-4

No matter how you spell it Octoberfest or Oktoberfest it is going on this weekend.

October 1-4 are the dates for the event here in Tucson at Hi Corbett field.  Full details are at their website tucsonoktoberfest.com

Admission: Adults $3  Children under 12 FREE

Times:

Thur. 5 – 10 pm.
Fri. Noon – 11 pm.
Sat. 10 am – 11 pm.
Sun. Noon – 6 pm.

Check out their website for event schedule and food for each day.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

AeroSpace & Arizona Days

is the formal name for this event.  Most call it “The Tucson Air Show”.  Searching for it by that name will probably turn up little results beyond this post.  The dates are set.  A quick visit to the DM Air Force Base site will find one image with the dates on it.

I know a lot of us have been waiting and waiting and waiting for this event to return to Tucson.  I wish I had more details on the event itself.  As they become available I’ll post them here.

Anyone finding out updated details please let me know so I can post them here.  At least we know there will be one this year (2010)

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

That’s about it.

Tucson September Home Sales Drop

Monsoon Lots of Promises Not much Delivered

September does tend to be one of the slower months of the year for Tucson real estate.  We are rapping up a long hot summer.  We had 75 days of over 100 degrees this season.  That’s a lot of heat with very little rain to go with it.  School has begun meaning most families have made their moves for the year.  It is too hot and early for the snowbirds to be coming in to look for their new nest.  I think we will have a strong second home market this season.  Last year there was a lot of fear over those nest eggs and many sat on them instead of investing in a second nest in Tucson.

It probably turned out to be a good wait.  They can get more bang for their nest egg buck this year than last.

October 1 bring new Regs

October is like fruit basket upset when it comes to lender/mortgage regulations.  A whole bunch of new regs go into effect today and it will take some time to figure out what effect these are going to have on the housing market.  My suspicion, getting ready for these is part of what slowed things down in September.  Government is very good at some hind sight and closing the door after the horse is out, or in this case we could say turning on the sprinklers after the house has burned.

Consumer Confidence Index

Since the media reporting on Government indicators can’t report the movements of the turtles till they move the information we receive is usually out of date before we get it.  Kind of funny in the world of instant communication.  It seems the recent reports are on old news of a lack of consumer confidence just as many are returning to buying Motor Homes and other items which are not considered necessities.  These sales are reported rather quickly and fly in the face of the older data about the slowing of consumer confidence.  Only Wall Street in their own bubble of existence seems to react to these turtle data streams with the exuberance of a school of fish fleeing from a shark in their midst.

Welcome to the Forth Quarter of 2009

Personally I’m glad to see it come.  The first three quarters have been a challenge.  The forth will have its own challenges but more rewards are slipping into the mainstream and while it probably will be a rough Christmas for retailers (Christmas are you kidding me, it isn’t even Halloween yet) it looks like the corner is turning slowly.  So here we go.   By the way, it is only supposed to be 89 degrees today and cooler tomorrow,   I’m so ready for the forth quarter.  Our best weather of the year is arriving and the celebrating is about to begin.  Come on down to Tucson.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Easy Seaches

It has been a busy time here at the Tucson Real Estate blog the past couple of weeks.  I’m in the process of building the “Easy Button”.  Behind that button will be “The Easy Searches”.

The easy button means you don’t have to filll in anything about size, price, location, you click the easy buttons to automated searches already setup with criteria.

The first of the easy button searches are already built for Tucson and Oro Valley Town homes and Condos.

You can check it out.  Many more Easy Button searches are being build and I’ll let you know when the whole system of Easy Button Searches is complete.

It isn’t easy building an Easy Button.  But it is worth it.  Don’t you think?

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

It can get pretty hot out there

It has been a long hot summer in Tucson. It is starting out to be a hot Fall as well.  Yesterday the forecast was for 104.  At the airport it said it said we set a record at 102.  At one part of Tucson we saw 106.

We didn’t have much of a Monsoon season this year as well.  Average rainfall during Monsoon is about 6 inches.  We get about 12 inches a year; yeap that means we get about half our annual rain during Monsoon season.  This year all we got was 2.8 inches of rain for the season.  Barely enough to float a boat.

The good news, the city and county saves about $50,000 because they didn’t have to go out and rescue people stranded in washes because they tried to drive through an area that said “DO NOT ENTER WHEN FLOODED”.  I guess the consider reading a sign possible “Texting” so they keep their eyes on the road (at least what they could see of the road) and “Went For IT”.

Nothing to go for this year.  No puddles to drive through, no alternate routes to plan.  Nada.

Today will be the 75th day this year with temps over 100 degrees.  Then it is expected to cool off a bit.  Buy the end of this week the Freezing of the Santa Cruz river is expected.

What?  this is desert humor, maybe it has something to do with 75 days of over 100 degree temps.  Anyway, the local description is when the night temp gets to 59 degrees that is the day the Santa Cruz freezes over.  In the desert 40 degree swings in temperature are not difficult.  It can be 100 by noon and 60 before the sun comes up.  The low humidity makes it possible.

This week we should see our last 100 degree day and the freezing of the Santa Cruz river is expected by Friday night.  It is a rare year both events happen in the same week.

There are challenges to living here in during the summer months, but the time of year we all live for is rapidly approaching.  The winters here are nothing short of amazing.  Like the swallows returning to Capistrano or the buzzards to Hinckley, Ohio;  the snowbirds will be in Tucson shortly.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

REBlogWorld & New Media Expo Oct. 15-17, 2009

When I’m not writing here I have several other blogs which get a little of my attention.  One of them at this point in time is the Real Estate Blog World and Media Expo site.

This is a conference held each year in Las Vegas.  Last year it was in September.  I participated in a session at the conference last year and found the Blog World conference to be quite an educational experience.  This year I’m on a panel to talk about Hyperlocal Media and Real Estate.  The description for the session is:

“We have known for years that real estate is local; the best agents are those who know their own communities. With the advent of blogging and social networking, real estate professionals have been given the tools to really hone in on their communities on a hyperlocal level. A hot topic outside of real estate, companies like the New York Times and Chicago Tribune have also started hyperlocal initiatives. Come hear a diverse range of views on hyperlocal media and real estate from Realtors, as well as traditional and new media profession.”

Even if you have never heard the term Hyperlocal media before; you are familiar with it if you have read this blog for any time at all.  It is one of the reasons I’m on this panel.  This is a hyperlocal media blog.  In plain english, it is a blog about a community and its events and hot simply a blog about Tucson real estate statistics and listings.  We have those here, but we also have a lot of event information and photos of Tucson and the desert Southwest.

I’m not just speaking at this years conference.  I’ve also taken on the responsibility of being the Webmaster, or Blogmaster for the REBlogWorld.com site.  There is a lot of work that goes into an event blog.  Especially when that even it just over two weeks away.  There is a lot of new content and adjustments being made on an almost daily basis (sometimes hourly basis).

Once the event is over there are follow-up blog posts, photos of the event and sessions and posting of videos of those sessions to the site.  It has taken up more of my time than I had initially scheduled for the project.  But it is an amazing conference.

More than Real Estate

The thing I like best is the REBlogWorld conference is a mini one day event embedded into the bigger, MUCH BIGGER BlogWorld and New Media Expo.  The overall conference features speakers who are on the cutting edge of new media and technology.  People who are involved in media well beyond real estate.  This means I get to hear and speak to authors and writers who are on this cutting edge; there are too many to mention here but visit the Blogworld expo website and you will see who is going to be speaking. All together there are more than 300 speakers for this 3 day event.

I get to see what new technology is being rolled out in the coming months from the vendors and sponsors section of the expo as well.  Last year I was exposed to new technologies and was able to try them on this blog before they were in general release.  I’m sure there will be even more this year.

This is just one reason the posts here have been fewer than normal.  There are other things that have been taking up time as well (building the “EASY BUTTON”) is one of these.  A little education and a little research are a couple of other I’ll share more about this week.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Dave In Class

Four Years ago I went to Real Estate School and passed the Arizona and National tests to become a REALTOR®  Yep, it is a special word and we even have a class on how to say the word, it is “Real” “Tore”.  Not Realter as most people say it.  While you would never call your physician a “Doc” “Tore” we are supposed to refer to ourselves as “Real” “Tores” and the word REALTOR is supposed to be capitalized and always have ® after it.

This is why I usually use the term “real estate agent” instead.  On occasion I will put Realtor(symbol goes here).

I know this is all so very interesting.  Bear with me I’ll keep this short.

Every 2 years we are to have 24 hrs. of continuing education classes to keep us sharp and up to date on what is happening in real estate.  It is also an opportunity to “scare you straight” if you have forgotten how many different ways you can get into big trouble helping people find a home.  Of those 24 hrs we get to pick 6 hrs. of elective courses.

I don’t practice as a REALTOR®.  Most know I write and support my wife Barbara Lasky with the technical and marketing side of our business through this blog and other social media for marketing.  Therefore, time passes quickly and on Sept. 14th I got an email saying my 24 hrs. of CE had to be turned into the AZ Dept. of RE by Sept. 30th to keep my license.

Not a problem.  We usually attend a number of classes throughout the year to meet this requirement.  BUT NOT THIS YEAR.  I didn’t realize it, but Barbara went to a lot of classes this past year and received her GRI designation.  She also went to a couple of things on Short Sales REO and Foreclosure classes. (None of which I attended)  You already know where this is going don’t you.

All I had was one certificate for a class on legal issues I had taken on Sept. 24th 2007.  This was one week too old to count for what I needed leaving me with exactly ZERO hours.

There were only a few minutes of panic, than about an hour of discussion between us as to whether I even needed to keep my license since I don’t practice real estate.  The fees aren’t cheap, but we decided it was beneficial for me to keep my license and me status as a REALTOR®.

For one thing it is required to be a REALTOR® to have access to the data in the Tucson MLS system.  This alone is reason enough to take the classes.  This past week I took 5 classes online for 15 hrs.  This past Thursday I was in a morning class on the Commissioners Standards and one in the afternoon or Reverse Mortgage options.  This got me another 6 hrs. for a total of 21 hrs.  My plan was to take the last 3 hrs. in an online class on Friday.  However, I wasn’t expecting to get sick; how sick? very sick.  Either a bout of food poisoning, or a 24/36 hr. flu bug.

I’ll take my last class online early this week and have my hours turned in a couple of days before September 30th.

I’ll share just one thing from one of my online classes which I thought you might find interesting.

Fiduciary Responsibility

Here is what the instructor Len Elder had on one of the slides.

“Salespeople have never had fiduciary duties. Let me give you a couple of historical examples. When was the last time you walked onto a used car lot and the used car dealer said, “Before you buy this car, here is a list of the problems with the car and the approximate cost of repairs. Plus given the way the car has been acting here are things that I expect to go wrong with it in the next six months. NEVER!

That’s because they are salespeople and have no obligations to protect or promote your interest as a consumer. When was the last time you walked into a store and at the register the clerk said, “before you buy that item you should know that just down the street is a better model, better features and lower price.” NEVER! That’s because they are salespeople and have no obligations to protect or promote your interest as a consumer. Only people with fiduciary duties have an obligation to protect and promote someone else’s interest. Over the last couple of decades that has become a very important defining characteristic.”

I wish everyone person involved in sales had a fiduciary responsibility, don’t you?

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

I want to be a pirete Do I have to eat crackers?

There have been some rough seas these past couple of years.  Navigating to safe harbor hasn’t been smooth sailing.  Getting out of port for that matter could be almost as treacherous as trying to land.

Almost anyone can sail on easy seas.  But it takes a steady and knowledgeable hand to master rough seas.  And rough seas they be these past few years.

It makes a mate weary and causes some High Anxiety (But thats for Mel Brooks Day Argh, don’t cha know)  Swedish Pirates?

Anxiety aside knowing there’s someone with experience guiding the ship and your best interests are a priority can do much to calm the nerves if not the seas.

So today take measure, no plank to walk, just a little fun to be had as you talk like a pirate.

Is there anything of value in this tale of the sea in the desert?  Maybe, maybe not.  But one thing rest assured.

Argh, it’s Talk Like a Pirate Day again.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

I don’t usually post about the Chili Cook-off this early. But I’m already seeing people searching for the dates for this years Tucson firefighters chili cook-off. I guess as soon as the weather turns a little cool we Tucsonans start thinking about warming things up. So here’s the skinny on this years event and a fun video from last year.

Enjoy this little RED HOT video from photos taken at last years Chili Cook-off.

Once again this year the Tucson Firefighters will be sponsoring their Chili Cook-off at El Presidio Park.  The date is Nov. 6, 2009.  Tickets are still $1.00.

For the full details here is the link to the Tucson Firefighters Chili Cook-off site.

Dad and I went last year and it was a hoot.  Great chili and the music, crowd and those booths were a blast.  I loved the Vikings the best. But the Indian Jones Toilet of Doom was the hit of the day with the period steam and smoke rising from the top of the tank.

I don’t think that was meant as a warning for your system of what might happen if you ate their chili.

There is chili there for all tastes, from 5 alarm to those that simply want a good meaty chili.  The price is right, the cause is very worthy, and the day is one to remember.  I can’t wait to go this year as well.

Mark Your Calendar for Nov. 6.  Bring your dollars and an appetite.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Tucson Lighthouse Tour canceled

There won’t be a Tucson Lighthouse Tour this fall. I’m sorry it was canceled. California still hasn’t slipped into the ocean.

Meaning all our beach front property here in AZ is still just beach. Once we have water, I’m sure a few lighthouses will be built, with Government money of course.

But for 2009 the Tucson Lighthouse Tour is canceled, stay tuned for further notices.  If there is a change in geological conditions we will let you know.

Fall Colors Begin to Appear

With the tepid monsoon rains beginning to abate the sand is turning it’s lighter color for the Fall.

The leaves don’t turn here.  Some do fall off but for the most part there aren’t any real leaves to speak of.

There are restrictions on colors here in the desert so Green is allowed with a permit but must go directly to brown when descending from tree to ground.

The Fall sand is a nice shade of brown and contrasts nicely with the various brown shades of rocks, dead cactus and stucco.

Fall is an amazing time of year and almost makes up for the canceling of the Lighthouse Tour.

**Lighthouse image provided by Teresa Boardman St. Paul Real Estate.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

This $8000 in Green can be Yours

Time is getting short for the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit to be used.  There are 75 days left on the count down clock till the home has to be OWNED.

• NOT PICKED OUT
• NOT THOUGHT ABOUT
• NOT AN OFFER ON
• NOT IN THE INSPECTION PERIOD
• NOT NEGOTIATING THE BINSR
• NOT WAITING ON THE BANK
• NOT ANYTHING

The property has to have gone through the entire process and Close of Escrow has to have taken place before the close of business on Nov. 30, 2009.

75 days is not a long time for this entire process. Many people take longer than this picking out a home.  If you plan on taking advantage of this Tax Credit then it is past time to get off the fence (or the couch) and get this process in gear.

Want to learn more?  Click on the big black $8000 Tax Credit button to the right

Ready to search for a home?  Click on “Seach Tucson Homes“  or Fill Out a Tucson Dream Home Finder for what you are looking for and have them sent to you by email.

There is time to close in 75 Days, but closing in 76 Days could cost a lot of money.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

I ran a check a few minutes ago of the number of closed transactions for August 2009.  At time of the report pulling date there were 980 entered into the system.  Now there are 994 and it isn’t impossible to believe there will be another 6+ sales entered for August before it is all said and done.

Those additional sales entered take the rate from 6.18 months of inventory to 6.09 months.

One other little thing I’ll mention.  I’ve thought about removing the XSW, XS and XW from the report.  XSW is Green Valley and XS is Saharita.  Not actually a part of Tucson but in the Tucson MLS system.  You will notice two of those areas have the highest months of inventory.  A couple of times I ran the numbers with and without those areas included and there wasn’t a real significant change in the results.  This month it is enough to tip it from 6.09 to 5.91 months without those areas included.  Still not a significant change but one I thought worth mentioning.

It is a good absorption rate for one of the slowest months of the year.  Especially with the focus on “Cash for Clunkers”.  Drawing national attention and dollars.

I hope no one who qualifies for the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit spent their down payment on a new car instead of using toward the purchase of a home.  Right now I wouldn’t bet on an extension of this tax credit.  All Sales must be completed by Nov. 30, 2009 when this credit expires.

We are a third of the way through Sept. already.  I’ve been busy with a lot of end of summer things and increased activity in our own business has kept me away from research and analysis.  I’ll be taking an in depth look at the progress of September this weekend.  The strong Pending Contracts in August should translate into strong September numbers.  We shall see.

Have a Great Weekend.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

The Average and Median sale price dipped as predicted.  But even so closed transactions were better than August 2008.  The biggest swing for the month was in the percentage of sales coming from Short Sales and REO’s.  It jumped from 16% in July to over 30% in August.  This increase also would explain the drop in Median sale price.

Let’s do the numbers.

There are some good negative numbers in there.  New Listings, Active Listings down is a good thing.  Pending Contracts up is also a plus.  Median and Average sale prices are pretty much the story with the increase in REO & Short Sales closing in August.

Year over Year

The big plus here are the Pending Sales and Closed Transactions.  Nice to see those active listings down as well.  September is a pivotal month.  It closes out the third quarter and leads the way into our busy fall transaction period.  The winter visitors (snowbirds) are returning and earlier than usual for a couple of reasons.

1. It isn’t an election year so no reason to stay home to vote for local issues
2. Consumer confidence is up (some of the 401K’s that were 101K’s last year are 201K’s this year)
3. Sale prices are much lower than last fall and confidence to buy a bargain is up.

That our short sweet and really hot wrap up of the Tucson Real Estate Market in August 2009.  We are all glad it is September and the temps have dropped to the double digits.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Economy keeps moving along

I keep hearing about how we are coming out of the greatest depression since the Great Depression. Anyone that lived through the Great Depression has to realize how ridiculous this comparison.  Why do I say this?  Do you know how long the Great Depression lasted?

It started in the 1920’s and ended in 1945 at the close of World War II.

That’s a time period of 25 years and a World War.  TWENTY FIVE years and a Second World Wars.

There is evidence the mini “depression” of the global economy started in 2007 with the collapse of the Mortgage industry; starting with First Magnus right here in Tucson.  Who Says Tucson isn’t important, we are the Fort Sumter of The Greatest Depression Since The Great Depression.  The shock  wave of collapse heard round the world.

There is no comparison.

Take a few minutes and read through this Timeline of the Great Depression

Now think about what we/you have been through in the past 18 to 24 months.  If you didn’t read the timeline above go do it now.

Does anyone honestly think the past couple of years is any more than a nano depression compared to that timeline?

Yes, there are comparison, Yes, there are similar events, it is a Depression Time line.  Even a mini depression will follow a similar timeline.  But that’s not the point.  Living through a couple of rough years can not be compared to the Great Depression Time line.

My Father was born in 1922.  Through out his childhood the only economy he knew was a depressed economy, the world was headed into a second World War.  A war in which he would server.  From the time Dad was born until after he was 25 years old the only world economy he had known was a depressed economy and a World War.

I’ve lived through a couple of recessions.  Most of the time I was so focused on feeding my family and providing the basic necessities for them I didn’t even know there was a recession.  I knew times were rough, but we did what we had to so we could provide.

All economic indicators at this point show we are headed into economic recovery globally.  For this I think we are all thankful.  We are all looking for a stronger economy for our nation and ourselves in 2010.  But to compare this experience to The Great Depression is to show our ignorance of history.  It is also demeaning to compare our experience now to what the Depression Kids and their families experienced.

We should all be thankful if this is the worst it has been since.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate