Extreme Makeover Tucson

Extreme Makeover Home Edition is rolling into Tucson for a build this week. There is a special Extreme Makeover Home Edition Tucson Website.

There is going to be a lot of activity in town and you can be a part of it.  A new home is going to be built in 106 hours.  That is quite the feat when you think about it.

I’ll be covering the event daily this coming week.  I will be ON SITE, shooting images and blogging about the entire process.  I might even throw in a video or two of the process.

Extreme Makeover Tucson Volunteers

You can sign up to be a volunteer on their Extreme Makeover Volunteers Page

There will be lots of opportunities to volunteer besides what will be going on at the build site itself. I’ll be writing posts and sending out tweets about those opportunities as they come up during the course of the week.

Current Needs RIGHT NOW

• WOODWORKERS! Skilled cabinetmakers, furniture makers - woodworkers!
• Generous Tucson restaurants
  to donate meals!
• Lumber and building materials! Cash donations can help as well.
• Home Decor!
• Services!

Extreme Makeover Tucson Donations

Besides the current needs listed above there is always a need of cash donations.  The Extreme Makeover Tucson Donation page has a quick way you can contribute as well as the address where you can send in your donations.

Follow Extreme Home Makeover Tucson On Twitter

Follow Extreme Makeover Tucson at @EHM_Tucson You will get automatic update through out the process from them on immediate and ongoing needs for the week.

Tweet Up Extreme Home Makeover Tucson with hashtag #ehmt

I’ve started a hashtag for all of us to use during the week on Twitter.  A hashtag is an easy way to see all tweets about an event.  The hashtag for this weeks Extreme Makeover Tucson is #ehmt by putting this anywhere in your tweet it will be picked up for searches about Extreme Home Makeover Tucson.  When you only have 140 characters it leaves you a lot of room to tweet when you don’t have to spell out the whole thing each time. (If you aren’t new to Twitter please excuse the explanation to newbies)

Here is a link to the search already setup for this hashtag.  Tweets for Extreme Makeover Tucson #ehmt

Extreme Home Makeover Tucson Page with RSS Feed

I created the Exteme Makeover Tucson page here on our site which will stay up through the entire process.  You can come here and see all tweets about Extreme Makeover Tucson using those words and the Hashtag #ehmt.

Extreme Makeover Tucson Website

Navigation For Extreme Makeover Tucson

There is a lot more information on the site itself.  The FAQ page is filled with answers to questions you might have about the project.  There will be more information after the project gets started with daily update.  This is a great opportunity for us all to show community spirit here in Tucson.

If things go according to plan there will be multiple post per day as well as all the tweets on twitter to follow. It is going to be an Extreme Week.  Since I usually am writing about Tucson Real Estate and what it is like to live in Tucson it seems natural to be covering a Home Makeover.

The program is tentatively scheduled to be broadcast on ABC on March 21, 2009.

If you want to get the word out about this post I’ve put a tinyurl for the post at the bottom to make it easy to pass it on even if you are viewing this from a mobile device.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Extreme Makeover Tucson

On Friday I attended the Tucson Association of Realtors Annual Forecast and heard some interesting presentations about the National and Tucson real estate markets. Rosey Koberlein said there could a housing shortage in 2009 or 2010.

I know when she said it the room was wondering why she was saying this (the media were licking their chops at a juicy quote to stir up controversy, they were right).  But I had been wondering the same thing for a few months as I saw the decline in New Construction around Tucson.

We know that in 2005 there were over 11,000 single family building permits issued for Pima county.  I also know that the migration of people moving to the state since 2005 has decreased significantly.  We overbuilt.

New construction had a very negative impact on residential resale of Tucson real estate since 2006.  This past year we had a much better residential resale market without as much competition from new construction.  However there was downward pressure on the residential resale market from foreclosures and short sales.

It is being predicted that a lot more foreclosures are going to be on the market in 2009 which is part of the reasoning behind the estimate there will be even few building permits issued in 2009 than were in 2008.

Lets look at some numbers on New Construction permits.

Remember because someone has a permit issued doesn’t mean they actually built a home.

Permits in 2005 11,000 +
Permits in 2006  8,522
Permits in 2007 4,846
Permits in 2008 3,018

It is predicted there will be even few building permit requests in 2009.  For a county with a population of over 1 million people this is not a lot of building permits.

Tucson Inventory Absoprtion Rates

During a “Normal” market period 6 months inventory is considered “normal”  When we look at the Absorption Rates for December 2008 we see there are three areas of Tucson already in the 6 month range.  The overall absorption rate dropped in December from 12.59 to 9.84 months.  Even with the Foreclosures rising, the inventory is shrinking.

Tucson New Construction Doesn’t Turn on a Dime

It takes time to gear back up.  If we suddenly see a shortage of available inventory the demand won’t be met with new construction.  It takes anywhere from 9 to 12 months for a new build.  It isn’t like Extreme Makeover Home Edition where they do it in 106 hours.

One Builder already Raising Prices in 2009

We got a notice this past week from one builder they were raising their prices.  They only had a few spec homes left and they had no plans to build anymore specs in the near future.

Some People Want A New Home

There are always some people who want a new home.  There are a lot of reasons, it the last home they plan on buying and they want it to be new.  They like building a new home everytime they move and furnishing the home is what they enjoy.  Some think in this market they can get the best deal on a new home with a new home warrenty in place.  For whatever the reason, some people simply don’t want to buy anything but new.

New Incentives and Reason To Buy

The Tucson Real Estate Market is showing signs of increased buyer activity.  In the first two weeks we have had over 500 home go under contract.  Interest rates took a jump at the end of the week to 5.75 from 5.1 at the beginning of the week.  But even 5.75 is a great interest rate.

The new Economic Stimulus bill before congress contains the provision to make the first time homebuyer $7500 tax credit one that doesn’t have to be paid back, making it a true tax credit.  There are buyers ready to buy, and soon there should be banks once again willing to lend.  I can see the Tucson Federal Credit Union changing their slogan to “Better than a Bad Bank”.

These are the reasons the question, which on the surface might seem ridiculous, could have some validity.

I know in September when I was paying just under $4 for a gallon of gas I would have said “NO WAY” to a prediction it would be less than $2 in January, but it is.

Could there be a Housing Shortage in Tucson in 2009?

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Tucson Housing Shortage in 2009

Tucson Italia

You might not have thought Tucson and Italy have much in common.  But think about it.  Tucson has Mountains, Italy has mountains.  You can see from the photo, there is  a mountain in the background.  There are Italian Cypress trees growing all over Tucson.  The stucco and lemon tree, right down to the curve in the fence leading up to a gate located to the left of this image.

We have Pizza in Tucson, a lot of good pizza, it might not taste or look anything like pizza you would find in Italy but we have it.  There are a lot of similarities between Tucson and parts of Italy.

We have some very good wine that comes from Southern Arizona Vineyards.  No it isn’t Italian wine but it rates pretty good.  You won’t find the miles and miles of vineyards in Tucson, but if you drive down Magee just off La Cholla you will find a vineyard.  It looks like it could be set in Italy.  It has brick pavers leading up to the gate which looks like it came from Italy.  The tree in the middle of the vineyard, the vines, that stakes; it all looks like a setting right out of Italy.

Frost Gelato Shop

Frost Gelato at Oracle and Ina

Everything about Frost is Italian, from the Gelato Master to all the equipment used to make the Gelato.  We have friends that visit Italy on occasion, Dave always says you can’t get real Italian Gelato in the states.  We took him to Frost.  It took a while but he had to admit, it was “almost like Italian Gelato”  I think it was because he was in Tucson.

Cross the street from Frost on Oracle and you come to Tavelino’s.

Tavolino’s

7090 N Oracle Rd
Tucson, AZ 85704
(520) 531-1913

Located off Oracle at Ina.  Italian, yes.  Step inside and forget you are in Tucson.  Transported to Itailia itself, the smells from the kitchen to the painting and posters on the wall you are in a little bit of Italy.  The food is magnifico, the smells will drive you wild.  Right down to the Grappa you can order and have served at your table.

Mountains, Pizza, Wine, Frost Gelato, Cypress Trees, Vineyards, (ok not much for vineyards) Tile roofs and Tavolino’s it is still Tucson in the desert Southwest.  But it doesn’t take much of an imagination to transport yourself to Italia.

Someday I hope to visit Italy, I really do; but till then I will enjoy the little bit of Italia I can have right here in Tucson.

Italian Vineyard in Tucson

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Tucson and Italy What do They have in Common

An Arizona room is rather unique to Arizona (thus the name) and it is a blend of indoor and outdoor living space that you don’t see very often outside of Arizona (at least that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.)

Wikipedia has this definition of an Arizona Room

An Arizona room is a semi-outdoor recreational room found frequently in homes in Arizona. The room is typically a patio that has been covered and screened-in, creating an outdoor feeling while preventing excessive heat and keeping insects and animals out. The room generally borders the back yard of the house and is often accessed directly from the living room, kitchen or other common room of the home.

Before air conditioning it was a place you could sleep at night and enjoy the cool evening breezes. Even after air conditioning the same is true. If you like the feel of the night air it doesn’t get any better.

This first image is from the living room looking out through the Arizona Room to the patio outside.

Arizona Room with View to Back Patio

This particular Arizona Room is long and narrow with a desk at one end and comfortable seating. Arizona Rooms come in all shapes and sizes.  There is no standard or set square footage or shape.

Great light comfortable seating for an enjoyable evening in Tucson

Because we have such warm weather year round there aren’t very many days when you wouldn’t be able to use your Arizona Room.  They are not figured into the total living space of a home so when you see an Arizona Room as part of a house it is bonus living space.  Something to keep in mind.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

What is an Arizona Room

No Tucson Air Show for 2009

The website providing information for the Tucson Davis Monthan Air Show is only showing 2 words “Nothing Here”. It isn’t that the site is gone. The site is still there.  The web address is working.  It gives us all hope there will be “Something Here” in the future.

But the only thing showing are those two words “Nothing Here“.

I’ve searched the web for information about air shows in Tucson for 2009. It seems appropriate to say:

Nothing Here

When I wrote about the 2008 Tucson Air Show the DM Air show site was saying the event was every other year and there would be on show in 2008 to look for more information about the 2009 show.

We are all left to guess that this show like many other events has fallen victum to the poor economy.

It is a shame that it has simply disappeared without any information on what happened or if there are any future plans for a Tucson Air Show.  I know from the traffic we get on this site there are a lot of people interested in the Tucson Air Show.

If anyone can find any information about the future of Air Shows in Tucson we would really appreciate a comment pointing us to it.

For now it appears there will be NO Tucson Air Show in 2009 or anytime in the foreseeable future.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Tucson Air Show 2009

Check out the individual areas of town, keep in mind 6 months is considered a “normal” inventory.

Inventory is down by more than 300 from November to December. Considering all the economic turmoil in the country during December (including the auto industry grabbing much attention) and the daily changes going on in the lending industry we are seeing some rather positive signs in Tucson Real Estate for December.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Tucson Absorption Rates December 2008

You Can Read The 830 Billion Dollar Stimulus Bill

Not interested in Cardinal’s Football. Sunday Morning News programs almost over and you are gearing up for the inauguration.

You know the 830 billion dollar stimulus package was passed this past Thursday. Do you know what is in it?

You can read it and search it for details at ReadTheStimulus.org.

I can tell you there is no reference to Tucson, Phoenix or Arizona in the bill.  But there is 258 pages of content on the site.  You can search and leave comments.

You can also download the entire 258 page PDF file of the stimulus bill.

I know the site says it is a 334 page bill and the PDF file only has 258 pages.  You can ask them where the rest of it went.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Read The 830 Billion Dollar Stimulus Bill

For now looking back here are the month over month number.  There are not surprises here I can find.

Tucson MLS Statistics Nov 08 - Dec 08 Summary

We covered most of these figures, (which did not change dramatically) in the preliminary post last week. The total units sold improved over both November and December last year. November was greatly effected by the economic turmoil going on in the financial sector and the many rapid changes in Mortgage rates and speculation of a 4.5% 30 fixed interest rate.

This also had an effect on the number of pending contracts. You can not make an offer in Arizona with including a Loan Status Form (unless you are paying cash or not seeking a loan) this single fact could have had an effect on some buyers waiting till things settled down a little. There is the general perception among buyers that there is no hurry, prices will continue to come down. However, as I’ve stated in the past, price is only part of the equation. Interest rates and closing costs can quickly offset a lower sale price.

Tucson MLS Statistics Dec 07 - Dec 08 Summary

One of the encouraging signs is the higher number of closed transactions in December over last December. The drop in the number of active listing even with foreclosures having risen dramatically compared to last year is a positive sign as is the number of new listing decreasing over last year.

Final observation: As we move into 2009 it would be a good thing for HOA’s to be looking to this new year and discussing the balance they need to strike between not wanting a lot of rental properties in a neighborhood and having property values and HOA dues collected fall. This year the true investors will have funds to buy foreclosed properties and properties in short sale. They have the time to wait for the transaction to complete and the funds to bring those properties back up to well maintained condition.

It might be wise for HOA’s to put into place a provision to allow investors who want to buy and resell, but not turn a property into a rental to do so. This year will be challenging and filled with opportunities in real estate.

Here is the link to the Entire Tucson MLS Residential Statistics Report for December 2008

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Tucson MLS Statistics for December 2008

This past weekend the Arizona Daily Star removed a lot of content it publishes on a daily basis sighting a downturn in the economy. The business section has been included in the main section of the paper. The Accent is gone. Comics, Gone. Dear Abby, Gone.

The paper itself isn’t the same. It appear to be thinner, not the content, the actual paper. It curls up and won’t lie flat on the table, I’ve noticed it all week. Each page in the upper right hand corner does a little curly thing saying “I’m thinner and leaner, but I still cost $.75 a day” It was a few months ago the price of a paper went from 50 cents to 75 cents. I’m basic newspaper speak that is a HUGE INFLATIONARY PRICING which I think brought about a HUGE PLUNGE IN SUBSCRIBERS.

The Tucson Citizen to Cease Publication

Now this afternoon we have a Tucson Citizen breaking news update that unless a buyer is found for the paper by March 21 it will close it’s doors.

I wish no ill will for either paper.  I do spend a lot of time doing battle with the one sided and often slanted approach to the Real Estate market in Tucson.  But, this doesn’t mean I don’t enjoy opening the paper each morning and over a couple of cups of coffee digesting the news and thinking about the day ahead.

It is a sign of the times and the changing way in which people not only get the news but the way the content impacts those reading it.  As in almost all business ventures more open transparent communication is needed with the public.

The days of simple sensationalism from a newspaper and the motto, bad news sells papers, is passe and non-relevant for our times.

It isn’t a green story I prefer reporting.  Will we see a day when there will be no daily paper published in Tucson?

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Tucson Going Green Will There be a Newspaper in Town

We should report the weather the same way we report the economic news.

Tucson’s Highest Low for the next 4 days will be 46 degrees.
The lowest low will be a bone chilling drop to 42 degrees which will be tomorrow.
Highs for each day will only reach 72 degrees. Bring your parkas.

The headline in today’s (newly shrunk) “Arizona Daily Star” ” The number of local homes entering foreclosure last year was almost 9000 and they’re dragging down home prices.”

97.84 of Homes in Pima County NOT in Foreclosure

And the 9,000 in big BOLD red letters is a nice touch.

Foreclosure PDF map provided by Marana included with the article

There is so much that needs to be addressed. I don’t want this to turn onto a tome.  I also don’t want the “You are up selling the market” accusation.  Here are the facts.

• 9000 are a lot of foreclosure notices
• These are notices of foreclosure not the number of foreclosures
• This represents only 2.16 of the properties in Pima County
• 97.84 % of properties are NOT in foreclosure and families are living in those homes and making their mortgage payments
• There are currently 7, 626 home for sale in the Tucson MLS not all of these homes are foreclosures
• The foreclosures on the market at this time are effecting home sale prices
• New construction is being effected in a negative way.  BUT this favors home owners who now are not competing with new construction.
• 88,854 foreclosure notices for Maricopa County in 2008

The fact that so many foreclosures are on the market at the same time are effecting average and median sale prices.  But this doesn’t mean that every home sold is going to be for a loss.

When “Repo Joe” rolls into town with repossessed autos you don’t see the new car dealers panic and lower their prices because there are repos in town. (All right, this is for comic relief, I know it is a bad example and like comparing apples to oranges.  Thought it might be interesting to try newspaper logic)

Let me give you a real apples to apples comparison

Tucson MLS January Quick Stats

As of Noon January 15, 2009

Closed Transactions: 173
Average Sale Price: $185,260
Median Sale Price: $154,900

In the same paper reporting sales by zip code:

There is nothing in the table indication what type of homes these are. But as you can see they aren’t all at the average or median sale price.

Yes Foreclosures and short sales are having an impact, but they aren’t dragging down all sale prices. I hate to use the old real estate saw but location is significant in home sale prices.

Finally Here are the figures for foreclosure notices for all 15 counties in Arizona for 2008 provided by California based Realty Trac.
County

Let’s recap here: 97.84 % of properties are NOT in foreclosure and families are living in those homes and making their mortgage payments.

Post from: Tucson Real Estate

Foreclosures for Pima County ONLY 9000 - Good News