TURF- Horseracing - Previews, Articles, Tips & Trends

Sea The Star's rating is just not Right

2010-01-14T14:49:00.017Z

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By Arsène ABITBOL - 16th Jan. 15.33 pm
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136 lbs...That's what Sea The Stars was given after his gliterring career...That is what was awarded 3 y.o who made history when he romped home in the 2,000 Guineas , The Epsom Derby and the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - video link -. To start with, he is the only one who has done this !

Secondly, he broke the track record in the Coral-sponsored Eclispe Stakes, completing the 10 f in 2'03''40... What else can handicappers expect ?? The horse beat what he was given to beat. He is smart, so he doesn't enjoy making too much and saves his gears and effort. That is his temper because he is smart. So much so, that when parading in the paddock on 4th October (Arc Day), many French jockeys said they had never ever seen such a cool horse.

Similarly to Zarkava who was given a dismal rating, Sea The Stars never dug further than 80 % of his capabilities. I am not making this up as his partner Mick Kinane spoke about 80 % ... Handicappers should have taken this into account...they might have, but certainly not enough..Anyhow, 136 lbs is just not right, and it is not a fair tribute to an exceptional thoroughbred of his calibre. Peintre Célèbre was rated 137 and I am curious to know if the handicapper at the time was the same because, make no mistake, The Wildenstein horse, was a fantastic racehorse and a great tribute to French racing (myself beign a French national) but he did not achieve what S.T.S achieved.

An interview with Mick Kinane

2010-01-11T00:46:00.009Z

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 11th Jan - pm
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I was very lucky to be able to speak to the Great Mick Kinane, one of the jockeys I have amways admired, and that I still admire. It is not very journalistic nor professional to say that but it's necessary to say what one feels sometimes.. Anyway, here is the interview I did with Mick Kinane shortly after he decided to retire in December 2009, shortly after the Great Sea The Stars outclassed his rivals in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, at Longchamp.

How did it feel to ride after Sea The Stars' romp in the Arc ?

"(long sighs)...It was fun , I had a good time in South Africa but I knew the end was coming soon. In Japan, I decided to call it an end. I love riding horses even if it doesn't mean the same to me when I am not on board Sea The Stars ... he is unique. At 50, I say to myself, that I had a fabulous career and Sea The Stars allowed me to leave on the highest note. He brought me so much. Anytime, I talk about him, it's moving. "

Sea The Stars meant so much to you, did he not ?

"He is an outstanding thoroughbred (very emotional) . He is got it all, he has no weaknesses, he has got a great physique, the strongest mind and an impressive natural speed. Above all, he so cold-blooded, nothing bothers him, that is his main strength to me. 99 % of all racehorses get hyperactive aft er they 've had a race but him....never. I have never seen such calmness. He won the Arc de Triomphe so easily .. I can say for sure, he was only at 80 per cent, he didn't need to dig more than that. His engine is just "untrue"

"Sea The Stars thought the race wasn't over "

When the race was finished, Christophe Soumillon wanted to grab my hand to congratulate me but Sea The Stars felt a horse was coming (Stacelita), so he took me and went further clear ! I couldn't do anything ! (laughs) ! It gives you an idea about his shape after such a race as The Arc... He was fresh and thought the race wasn't over. He is extremely calm but has a domineering attitude.

"I want to take some time "

What are your plans now ?

"I'll continue riding horses for John Oxx, about twice a week, I wouls say. I intend to stay fit and this will get me out of bed in the morning ! I have a lot of gratitude for John, and I wish to help out as much as I can. On the other hand, I want to take time. For my family and my hobbies. I enjoy playing golf. Myself and my wife Catherine play regularly. I also spend time gardening in my farm and from time to time, I go sailing."

"I am passionate about breeding "

"I was fortunate enough to breed Authorized (Derby winner) with 2 associates and friends. I am very proud of him and I felt a huge satisfaction when he won this Classic. I have a small breeding operation where we have 3 mares. It 's named Eadling Farm."

"Sea The Stars should make an outstanding stallion "

It's a delicate question, but how do see his career as a stallion ?

"(very assertive) He should make a great stallion. I really don't see why he wouldn't be very good. His pedigree is outstanding, he's a brother to Galileo and his Dam, Urban Sea produced exceptionnally well...

"The French always welcomed me very warmly"

Many fans here will miss you, you know...

"I have had great moments I 'll never forget in France and racing fans, jockeys and trainers always gave me a warm welcome. Maybe, I'll pay a visit one of these days.

Why Denman will beat Kauto Star ...

2010-01-08T22:45:00.008Z

Who's got the ability to defeat the dual Gold Cup winner Kauto Star ? Given his latest romp in the King George VI Chase (Gr I)...There aren't many candidates... There's just one. Denman. Not only "the tank" is its unique challenger, but he is the one who's about to end Kauto's reign in March...So why Denman will beat Kauto Star in the 2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup ?

If Denman was a man he would be 7 ft tall and would weigh around 300 pounds. Not only would he be a giant, but he would be articulate, agile, fit and toned. Denman's physique is impressive and so is his ability to deal with the hardest fences in the world. He has never been in the Grand National, but when you see Denman's agility, would you honestly think, Aintree would pose any kind of problem ? In all honesty, I don' t think so... The fact is Denman is the most fluent over fences. He is so spontaneous...he's sometimes unreal.

One has to admit that Kauto Star (FR) is an exceptional horse, a true champion, who has achieved what only Desert Orchid has achieved in the King George VI and Kauto Relka's son is a "special horse". I would say that right-handed, he is untouchable. No one, even Denman , or any given chaser can't even think about approaching him. He is too far ahead. He has got no one to match him. The only horse that can match him is himself. Meaning, he 'll lose only if he fells. Otherwise, he is just untrue on a right-handed track.

That's Denman's weakness. Denman is not a fan of Kempton and isn't so easy right-handed. He is so powerful and fluent that he's at his best on undulating, tough, left-handed galloping tracks. Like Cheltenham. Aintree is too flat for him. After he 's had his heart operation, Denman came back a few weeks later to finish 7 lengths behind Kauto Star in the 2009 Gold Cup. What an extraordinary performance !!!

There's just a word to describe such an achievement : "Class" . Would you be able to run a 1 500 metres after having a fibrillating heart a few months earlier ? And finish 10 metres behind the reigning world champion ?

Sam Thomas' mount did. Denman did. He is so gifted, and I'm very convinced he is even more natural and flawless than Kauto Star when it comes to jump technique. I believe the 2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup is a very obvious matter. If and if only Denman's back to his best, which might be the case (His 2009 Hennessy Gold Cup win at Newbury is a good indicator) in March 2010? Then...then.. There will be no rematch. Denman's going to beat Kauto.

Plain and simple. At his best, he'll set a frantic tempo, and will dishearten his rivals one after the other. Even Kauto will struggle to follow in the final 500 yards, that's for sure, because that's what happened in 2008 an 2010 is about to repeat !! To say the truth, I am happy about that. I am a Denman fan. I am French, so is Kauto Star, but Denman is truly the greatest at Cheltenham. If he is at his top of his game, physically, he will beat Kauto and anyone else.
See you in March.

Lord Shanakill Deserved Group Trophy !!

2009-07-06T21:18:00.008+01:00

Considered as a revenge of the French 2 000 Guineas, the Group I Prix Jean Prat has seen the likes of Bailamont, Priolo, Bago, and more recently Tamayuz who retired to stud, Lord Shanakill, the Karl Burke-trained three year-old landed the Chantilly contest.

For various reasons, there are Group I horses who have not bagged any competition of this sort; having been either unlucky or outgunned by Group machines like Galileo, Sea the Stars, or Mastercraftsman. That story very much rang the bell with Lord Shanakill who produced his best effort in that kind of company, and Sunday's win was fully deserved. It's even easier to say : 'it was overdue'.

Especially since his victory probably meant a lot to his mentor, Karl Burke, who registered his first Group I winner. It was all the more a relief since Jim Crowley's mount appeared slighlty unsettled until the three-furlong marker, but the son of Speightstown - an American stallion - proved too tough in the straight. The three year old gallopped relentlessly until the post, and managed to repel Oiseau de Feu's fierce challenge. In the meantime, the Yorkshire-based handler ended Jean-Claude Rouget's supremacy over parisian Group I tournaments. The undefeated German challenger, Irian, finished well to take third. As to Westphalia, the Aidan O'Brien-trained favourite disappointed, and never looked at home. Jimmy Fortune could not do wonders and the horse might have exerted himself a little bit. He has been campaigned rather heavily over the last few months.

A few days before the race, connections expected a bold performance from their leading colt, and He might be heading towards the Jacques le Marois at Deauville; probably the richest and best French event over the mile. The prize on offer reaches 600,000 € and will be staged in August . However, the immediate target are the Sussex Stakes, on July 29th at Goodwood.

Living Legend Yeats!

2009-06-20T20:10:00.010+01:00

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 20 June 2009 -
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YEATS (IRE)
Sire: Sadler's Wells (USA)
Dam : Lyndonville (IRE) (TopVille)
Age : 8 y-o, born 23 April 2001
Particularities : won from 8 to 20 furlongs, 7 Group I wins.
Others : undefeated at Goodwood (2/2), Leopardstown (2/2),& Ascot (4/4)
History : 4 triumphs in the Ascot Gold Cup.
Races : 24 Victories : 15
Earned : 1,298,000 £
Status : LIVING LEGEND

What Yeats has just achieved is simply beyond belief! Since the Ascot Gold Cup was created 207 years ago, no horse had ever been able to win this four times in a row. To say the truth, many things about him are unbelievable. For instance, the fact that an eight year-old is still able to thwart a young contender like Patkai. The 'young contender' is three years younger than him, and in racing terms that's a massive age difference.

Even if it's largely due to Yeats' constitution, the son of Sadler's Wells has been well taken care of. It's rare enough to maintain a racehorse in top condition when he/she is five or six, but in the case of an eight year-old, it has to be called an ''outstanding training performance'' from Aidan O'Brien and all the Ballydoyle team. How come Yeats has been coping with that many fights and that much toughness? All of the tournaments he took part in were always contested at top level, in top company; taking on younger and battle-hardened competitors, we are talking about genuine hardship. The kind of test, the vast majority of thoroughbreds could not bear for more than two or three years at the most. Well, in the case of Yeats - the iron horse -, both age and hardship very much failed to make an impact on him.

What's more, is Yeats' times in his four Gold Cups:

On 22 June 2006 , he clocked up 20 furlongs in 4'20''45, on 21 June 2007, in 4'20''78, at the time he was aged six. A year later, the tempo was slower in the 2008 GoldCup and the time read 4'21''10. Finally, a few years ago, on June 18, the Ascot marathon was rounded up in 4'20''73. Mind Blowing! Nearly as good as when he landed his first Cup four years ago! In other words, this means that at 8, he displayed the same strength as in 2006, when he was much younger - (five years-old).

Interestingly enough, if we extrapolate, it seems reasonable to establish the following scale : Aged three, the physical ability of a thoroughbred would compare to that of a 18/20-year-old young man. Aged five, the tonus of a racehorse would be similar to that of a 26/28-year-old man, and an older horse - let's say eight! - could easily compare to a more mature individual, aged around 38/40 years old. Hence, the following thought : How come a given 40 y-o-individual would perform just as well as he did when he was 28? Isn't that something? It only takes an exceptional animal, the kind of horse that makes history and Yeats is now a Living Legend, an Immortal in the racing world.

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Sources : BBC Sport TV Channel
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Tartan Bearer Given Golden Opportunity.

2009-06-16T22:06:00.007+01:00

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 16 June 2009 - 21.28pm
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Azamour, Grandera, Ouija Board, Fantastic Light, Dubai Millenium and more recently Manduro carved their names in the hall of fame of the Prince of Wales' Stakes.
Though ran over 1m2f, this contest is also used as a prep race for classic pattern races staged over 1m4f later in the season. When he disposed of Dalakhani, Azamour became hero of the Irish Derby and went on to land the King George VI at Newbury), and notched third in the Breeder's Cup Turf at BelmontPark), Grandera followed up in Irish Champion Stakes.
Ouija Board, Lord Derby’s ‘a mare in a million’ will go on to score in the Nassau Stakes and in the Breeder's Cup Turf. As to Fnatastic Light, he proved to be a special horse too and was subsequent winner of the Irish Champion Stakes and Breeder's Cup Turf in 2001. Having bagged three Group Is before Ascot, Dubai Millenium, won nine contests out of ten and the Prince of Wales’s was his last triumph. He made sure however to smash the oppposition by a minimum of eight lengths before his new career as a stallion...Last but not least, an Andre Fabre-trained horse who could have - or should have - joined Montjeu’s, Sinndar’s, or Peintre Célèbre’ s Hall of Fame : Manduro. Two years ago, Manduro’s abitlity was above Dylan Thomas’. The latter emerged an Arc winner in 2007. Following this, the Prince of Wales' Stakes were rated as ‘2007 Best European Race'!

Runner-up in New Approach’s Derby, Tartan Bearer had a luckless experience in last year’s controversial Irish Derby but tomorrow Sir Michael Stoute’s charge is provided a golden opportunity to capture his first Group I. Tartan Bearer is such a consistent type that one can wonder if he’s ever had a bad day. That might occur on Wednesday,otherwise… Here’s quite a telling fact : Having contested only six races, his bank account already tops 530,000 £ and glancing at his performances, the Ballymacoll four-year-old is likely to prove the classiest. Alternatively, French contender, Vision d'Etat is a very classy sort however Tartan does have more room for improvement. Finally, the son of Spectrum remains unbeaten over 1m2f - three out of three. He is the one who’ll take all the beating.

Out of eight runners, two of them will be crossing the Channel, representing all-conquering Jean-Claude Rouget and Eric Libaud. It is fair to say that Rouget has established himself as the best European trainer over the last few weeks and Never on Sunday’s first try at Group I level proved successful in the Prix d'Ispahan at Longchamp. He’s aiming a tougher affair but he’s surely able to be in the shake-up. 1000 Guineas winning jockey Christophe Lemaire will be in the saddle.

Cockney Rebel’s partner in the English & Irish 2000 Guineas, Olivier Peslier was asked to aboard 2008 French Derby winner Vision D’etat. Recent conqueror of the Gr I Prix Ganay at Longchamp, the four year old will bid for a third Group I title. Fifth in Zarkava’s Arc, the form has been franked up by Ask and Youmzain - respectively 6th and 2nd in the Arc- and judged on this performance he’s got a strong chance. Following another controversial episode, it’s a shame Ioritz Mendizabal won’t be at Royal Ascot.

Having performed below par for his comeback in the Earl of Sefton Stakes (Gr III), Twice Over made such a favorable impression in the Lockinge Stakes (Gr I, 3rd) that reversing form with Virtual is not unlikely and if the son of Observatory proved too good for his rivals, neither would that be a fluke. Raced in a prominent manner, Henry Cecil’s representative wouldn’t give up without a fight. Virtual came 1st and Alexandros 2nd but there wasn’t much at all between them three. The Warren Place master will try to saddle his 5th Prince of Wales’s winner. Henry Cecil also declared on his website : ''Twice Over is in good order and will hopefully have a chance in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes. Some rain would be beneficial to him’’ . Let’s not forget that Twice Over’s such an able animal, he did beat a certain Raven’s Pass last year.

Gosden-trained Virtual is tried at 1m2f for the first time but one can’t see why he would not cope with it. The son of Pivotal landed the Lockinge Stakes having his first crack at that level and rider Jimmy Fortune gave him a splendid ride to deny Alexandros by a short head. Only tomorrow, Virtual might have to dig deeper than his partner because Tartan Bearer and Vision d'Etat will be in the way.

Formerly trained by French handler Philippe Demercastel,Trincot is a recent import for Godolphin and the Dubai Princes were probably impressed by the four year old’s victory in the Gr II Prix d’Harcourt at Longchamp. The son of Peintre Celebre was certainly an eye catcher and again he will love the trip and will hopefully handle Ascot. In order to display his best, Trincot needs a strong pace and provided he gets that, he is more than capable to come close. 12/1 is an attractive price.

John Gosden’s second string : Tazeez; whose latest performance is to erase. This horse is not straightforward but isn’t untalented. On a good day, he’s a genuine contender. German visitor, Estejo is set a very tough task. Best to be watched.

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Selection : Tartan Bearer
Biggest Threat : Twice Over
Outsider : Trincot
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Sources : htp://www.henrycecil.com- http://www.racingpost.com - http:www.bha.org
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Solid French Derby but

2009-06-07T13:14:00.024+01:00

Not fantastic weather but a good race ran at a decent tempo. The Prix du Jockey-Club otherwise known as French Derby was completed by Le Havre in 2'06''80. Led to victory by ever-inspired stable jockey Christophe Lemaire, the son of Noverre offers a first Derby to all-conquering Jean-Claude Rouget and given the ease of his triumph, he looks good enough to carry on landing Gr I titles in the future.

He just bagged this contest with ease and authority. Now, Pau-based handler Rouget is left with many suitable entries. Still engaged in the St James Palace Stakes on June 16th, the Eclipse or Sussex Stakes are potential targets, as are the Gr I Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly or the Jacques le Marois both over a mile, respectively in June/July and August. If connections feel he is able to tackle 1m4f in the Grand Prix de Paris, that would be a huge gamble. At any rate, Le Havre has just proved us he is to be feared over 1m-1m2f.

The fact of the matter is except Vesuve, Wajir , Feels All Right and Beheshtam, the rest of the field, precisely thirteen of them, as Lawman (2007) and Shamardal (2005) are pure milers. Vesuve finished well and looked promising, while Wajir is surely better than what he showed us, Feels All right ran way too freely and quite understandably, there wasn't much left in the tank. Last year's contenders Chinchon, Montmartre, Magadan and Trincot did not look at home here but went on to be really smart afterwards. The same is probably true for those mentioned above, they should fare very well in the near future.

Raced over a 1m5f maiden four week ago, and tried in a 1m4f Listed Race, which he both mocked, Beheshtam was thrown into Group I company on his third run only and having to deal with a delicate draw -15/17 - he is most definitely the eye catcher of Sunday's contest. Strong-built, powerful, and as robust as a steeple-chaser, the son of Peintre Celebre was given a very patient ride by jockey Christophe Soumillon until he found his stride to produce a remarkable turn of foot in the straight to take fourth. Simply impressive!

Partner C.Soumilon declared on the Paris-Turf website - http://www.paris-turf.com - ''Had there had been two and a half furlongs more, we would have won''. We thought so! A French saying: '' dans la ligne droite, il a du en enrhumer plus d'un, treize en realite'' meaning : ''A few of them probably caught a cold in the straight, 13 of them actually''.

Criquette Head-trained runner-up Fuisse is a genuine Group I horse. He was set such a difficult task, having travelled with fast and furious-leaders, he had to bear a hard tempo but still appeared as a winner until caught by Le Havre in the final strides. Perhaps, partner Dominique Boeuf rallied prematurely at the business end, anyhow, the son of Green Tune is a very classy individual. He ought to be a big gun provided that he came out well from the race.

Ballydoyle delegated four contestants, in the shapes of Drumbeat -Gr I Criterium de St-Cloud runner-up- Set Sail, lightly-raced Malibu Bay, and Westphalia. The latter finished best under Johnny Murtagh to grab third a length and a half behind Fuisse. Drawn 13, he did very well.

Justifiably so, in the mind of French professionals, the 1m4f Gr I Grand Prix de Paris has emerged as the true three-year-olds Classic contest. The hitch : staged in mid July, the going at Longchamp can be so quick certain trainers describe the track as hazardous. Alain de Royer-Dupre had a bitter experience with Arc hope Montmartre. The horse over exerted himself, hurt his tendons and never raced again. So, anyone who enjoys seeing champions in action wouldn't want this to happen again.

All in all, this 2009 French Derby was of a very good standard and the first, second and fourth must be high class. Only the fact that most of them will go back to the mile distance in the next few weeks is regrettable. Very much so.

Rip Van Winkle : Murtagh or Ballydoyle ?

2009-06-04T23:06:00.003+01:00

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 3 JUNE 2009 - 23.12 pm
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Saturday will be Derby Day and whether John Magnier’s, Derrick Smith’s or Michael Tabor’s silks see the post first: it doesn’t really matter. What matters is a Ballydoyle success.

Johnny Murtagh will partner Rip Van Winkle and given this evidence, we would like to think that he is the stable’s first string. Potentially, he has to be the best colt. The only hitch is: So far it hasn’t been the case, and it is rather unsure whether Rip remains a Derby horse. One thing is certain though, if this is genuinely Murtagh’s pick, his mount must show something out of the ordinary during the morning gallops. Cautious, the bookies have taken very few chances and generally cut the price from 6 / 1 to 7/2.

Still, history tells us that High Chapparal did land the Derby and at the time he was perceived as Coolmore’s second string. Runner-up Hawk Wing was Mick Kinane’s choice...

Let’s assume for a minute that Coolmore’s interests prevail on Murtagh’s interests; a plausible scenario after all. I suppose, it is common sense to say that Aidan O’Brien is seeking the best partnerships. Who matches who? – in the best way –

I can’t get my head around this: On one hand, what would you choose between Fame and Glory, Black Bear Island and Rip Van Winkle ? To be perfectly blunt it’s a very hard call. Personally I am more inclined to select Fame and Glory but at any rate, it’s far from obvious.

On the other hand, it’s a much easier task to match both mounts and riders accordingly to their racing styles and past achievements. Seamie Heffernan has demonstrated great instincts with Fame and Glory. Golden Sword was given a most astute ride in the Chester Vase, courtesy of Colm O’Donoghue, equally well inspired in the Dante Stakes aboard Black Bear Island. The latter enjoys storming from behind, just like his pilot Ryan Moore. That’s another fit. Master of the Horse will be partnered by Richard Hughes known for his talent when it comes to judging the pace in a race, and justifiably so, he might be used to set the pace. Possibly by default - for lack of better words – Pat Smullen inherits the ride of Age of Aquarius. Conqueror of the Lingfield Derby Trial on his return to action, the Galileo colt displayed a most satisfying effort. Even so, compared to other runners, he doesn’t boast the best form but is certainly progressive and possesses plenty of room for improvement. I rate him as the dark contender.

Rip Van Winkle could be the most gifted but is quirky and a complicated ride. The way he finished in the 2000 Guineas was rather impressive; however the son of Galileo is inclined to hang or to lose his balance. Having been his jockey since his debut, Murtagh shouldn’t experience anymore trouble with him. If such is the case, there will be no excuses and let the best horse win!

But again, his capacity to stay over 1m4f remains to be seen. Again, stepping up a three year-old from eight to twelve furlongs is quite a bet. Rip Van Winkle’s stamina will be subject to a harsh test; the first mile might be run at a furious pace and if that wasn’t enough his pedigree doesn’t suggest that much stamina. Finally and that will conclude this article; prior to the Guineas, the RacingPost reported that his preparation had been hampered by a stone bruise. Will this incident be of any consequence on Saturday? In short, many ‘ifs’; but if Johnny Murtagh bags a fourth Derby, he will have landed a massive gamble!

So Murtagh or Ballydoyle ? Opinion : I would say both parties. The former sticks to his gut feeling and the latter can’t figure who stands out, are not over-confident, but can figure out the best matches, otherwise why put six competitors in the line-up?

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Sources : BBC TV - http;//www.racingpost.com -
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A Legitimate Ask for deserved success

2009-06-03T23:20:00.006+01:00

Investec Coronation Cup 1m 4f Gr I 4yo +

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 3 JUIN 2009 - 21.21pm

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No concerns whatsoever as to Look here’s ability to handle the tricky profile of track since she’s a course and distance winner in last year’s Oaks. In the St Leger at Doncaster, she finished behind Conduit and unsung heroin, the former is an excellent horse - Breeder's Cup Turf - and the latter is a solid performer. By looking at her performance she was able to challenge Conduit around the12th-13th furlong, which means that Friday's trip of 1m4f will be optimum.Whether she'll be fit and ready to unleash remains to be answered, but on the form she has shown she is entitled to win.

Eastern Anthem for the Maktoum family hasn't seen anyone going past him on his four-year-old campaign. He boasts a perfect record whose form provides a solid basis. He disposed of Spanish Moon, Purple moon, Quijano and Youmzain at Nad el Sheba. That was quite a race and Saeed Bin Suroor's charge has been blossoming this year. Rated 120 he also has every right to play a huge role in this Coronation Cup.

Youmzain : Last year's runner-up in this event bids to gain an overdue success at this level and this time the dual Arc runner-up won’t have to deal with Soldier of Fortune and MacArthur. This year's renewal is probably off a lesser standard and that will play to his strength. In 2008, he campaigned against much stronger horses and his unlucky comeback at Nad el Sheba also proved that he's still in good nick. Richard Hills is to ride him yet to victory but Mick Channon's protege is a logical favourite.

Ask : From Sir Michael Stoute's yard who's unrivalled in bringing the best out of older horses, he put everything in trouble in the Gr II Yorkshire Cup a fortnight ago and at six year-old he is still very lightly raced - 15 runs - is proven at Group I level and last year's 6th in Zarkava's Arc situates his ability. He can be very close provided he adapts to Epsom.

Frozen Fire is a top class thoroughbred on his day, but he ran an awful race at Chester last time out. His form was head and shoulders above but he failed to deliver. Whether John Murtagh should have taken the lead remains debatable as he’s such a tricky ride. Whether he was not good enough remains debatabe too. The son of Montjeu needs a race run at fast pace and he will surely find these conditions on Friday. The big question mark is on the grounds of his Irish Derby win he is a leading contender, on the basis of his Chester outing he doesn’t stand much of a chance. He is the dark horse, let’s just hope that he will show his true colours.

Bucellati captured the Gr II Ormonde Stakes in good style, the form of which has been franked since runner-up Scintillo came out the strongest in Sunday's Gr II Grand Prix de Chantilly over in France. He also cleared from Frozen Fire but again the relevance of the Ormonde Stakes form is very doubtful. Even though he is coming here with the profile of a late improver he's still up against it with this type of company. Being in the shake-up would be legitimate though.

This line-up looks a bit too classy for Expresso star, if he completes the winning quartet, there will be no disgrace.

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Selection : Ask

Ousider : Eastern Anthem

Biggest Threat : Youmzain

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Sources : http://www.racingpost.com

Sway a Champ in The Making

2009-06-01T23:44:00.010+01:00

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 1 JUNE 2009 - 00.09 pm
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The name is Sway, she is a three-year-old hurdler, trained by Guy Cherel in France. Victorious for her debut in the Prix Geographie, a 24,000 £ prize for unraced fillies over the minimum trip of 15 furlongs at Auteuil, the daughter of Califet disposed comfortably of her immediate rivals, made of stablemate Formerly -2nd- , Sakura des Bieffes, - 3rd - trained by master handler Guillaume Macaire, and Francois-Marie Cottin-trained Maryota -4th-. Until then, nothing outstanding, except perhaps the ease of her victory, relegating close opponents 6, 14, and 24 lenghts away.
A solid apprenticeship that led us to assume there was scope for further improvement. Now, what about it -the improvement - ?

On Friday 29th May, on her second outing only, Sway was stepped up in class in the Prix d'Iena, a 39,000£ Listed-Race contested over 2 miles and 2 furlongs at the same parisian track, taking on Tarla, - 2nd - a dual course and distance winner and Zandalee, another course and distance winner who notched third on her debut prior to that.

Well regarded front-runner Zandalee set a solid tempo before she was outstayed by

Tarla, the latter outpaced by Sway, who was storming home in outstanding fashion.
So far, so good, but still, nothing to get carried away with.

Only here comes an additional piece of evidence that entitles us to get carried away : 1'11'60! In addition to a quick rhythm, courtesy of Zandalee, the last five furlongs were rounded up in 1'11''60! An exceptional time over hurdles. Even though inappropriate but incredibly telling, top middle-distance horses would cover the last 1000 metres in around 1''00 on the Flat.

This means two things : On top of being unbeaten, Sway has proved she possesses pace - Sire Califet grabbed 4th in Marienbard's 2002 Arc - and stamina, and is outrageously agile over hurdles. How else could you handle obstacles at such pace? You have to be extremely talented. She is promised to the brightest career and major stables like Paul Nicholls' and Nicky Henderson's, always keen on French imports, will be monitoring her progress very closely.

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Sources : TV - http:/www.racingPost.com - .
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Come racing at Glorious Towcester

2009-05-30T00:24:00.038+01:00

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 30 MAY 2009 - 00.44 am
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This was the first time I went to Towcester, as I was driving down the A43, there's one landmark you can't miss and that's Towcester racecourse with its towers standing proudly above the woods. Today, 29th May was the final racecard of the season. That's a bit unfortunate because I wish I could go back there before Wed 7th October, date of the next fixture. What a lovely place for a day out! What more can you ask? The setting is lovely, it's neat and tidy, the admission is free, the parking is free; the staff : smiley and helpful.

The state of the track is superb, and so is the surface; hats off to the groundsmen. The first thing which caught my eye was that I couldn't see the rail at the second bend. I then decided to walk alongside this rail and noticed how steep the descent and the uphill finish are; combine this with sharp bends, which even seem right-angled if you stand in the early part of any straight of the track, this has to be one of the toughest jumps track in the UK, maybe in Europe. The type that pushes horses to the limit and one that depicts jumping in a great fashion. Competitors of the caliber of Character Building, Marodima, or decent ones like D.E Pipe-trained Consigliere and more recently the promising Aachen have all competed here and similarly to Cheltenham, the demanding features of Towcester provide a genuine test for a racehorse. So what's the British Horse Racing Authority waiting for staging at least, a Group III event at Towcester? In all fairness, it's only legitimate and well deserved.

Back to the sporting action. Jumps jockeys are fearless. Half-way through the descent, there's an average-sized fence, about one metre high, it's typically the kind of fence horses can underestimate or tackle with over-confidence; only yesterday in the 7.30 Netvork Veka Class 4 Handicap Chase, none of them were playing up, all approaching that fence well in-line, jockeys high in the saddle, beautifully parallel one to another, one could not hear a sound, just the deep roaring bass of horses thundering down the course; mounts and pilots highly focused, they knew they had to be unusually focused because the pace they approached that fence was simply fast and furious. After the officials released the time, it wasn't so surprising that a new record was established - fast by 9.90 sec -.

An hour later, the 8.30 Glazerite Windows Ltd Class 4 Handicap Chase is constested at dramatic pace too. Lucky Luk and A.P Mcoy's mount Sea Wall displayed a thrilling battle two out. At this point, people are roaring with all their heart, and cheering Jason Maguire who is finally clearing away from one-paced gelding. On the way to the winner's enclosure, trainer K.C.Bailey is busy on the phone, he looks so composed; it's as if he knew his charge was going to score. Having said that, he surely didn't know that Lucky Luk completed the circuit 17 secs faster than standard time. Pictured left, winning trainer and jockey, K.Bailey & J.Maguire.

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Sources : Towcester Racecourse (link : http://www.towcester-racecourse.co.uk/ - and http://www.racingpost.com
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Hindu Kush The Brave

2009-05-28T20:30:00.008+01:00

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 28 MAY 2009 - 20.51 pm
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8.00 Leopardstown Seamus & Rosemary Memorial Saval Beg Listed Race 1m 6f

Odds-on favourite Alandi for in-form John Oxx failed to catch up with the high tempo set by long-time leader Hindu Kush. H.H Aga Khan's four-year-old made an encouraging effort and stayed on well to grab second but even more courageous was Hindu Kush's display. Even though he is a natural front-runner, it's always a tough mission to make all the running over today's trip. Chris Hayes gave the son of Sadler's Wells a bold ride as he started to kick for home at the three-furlong marker repelling Sublimity -third -and Alandi's assaults in the closing stages.

Strong traveller Sublimity has the most stamina but did not have the necessary turn of foot to threaten the leader over this too short trip. The 2007 Champion Hurdler made a promising return to the Flat and his connections might gear him in that direction until the jumps season arrives. Alandi will improve from the run, he is still very unexposed and looks a smart stayer. Entered in the Irish St Leger he wasn't very lucky in the last fifty yards and seemed surprised rather than beaten.

North Yorkshire-based Dandy Nicholls maintains his impressive strike-rate in Ireland. When he makes the journey over the Irish Sea you'd better take notice. Out of seven runners, he sent a staggering four winners and one second to bag more than 98,000 £. Next intended runner in Ireland is course and distance winner Inxile, in a valuable contest, the Naas Sprint Listed Race Stakes.

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Sources : AtTheRaces TV Channel - http://www.RacingPost.com -
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Betting Report : 310/1 at 3.10

2009-05-28T15:28:00.007+01:00

If I happened to be a layer - which I am not- I would have financial means - which I don't have - and I would always lay favourites or nothing bigger than 3/1. If you put yourself in the shoes of a layer, it's funny to see how cautious you end up when it comes to selecting 'no-hopers'. Basically they all have a chance and, it's only natural to think that Neil Charmers' mount, Lowther, had a tiny chance to land this Event Guard Staff Maiden Stakes. A little bit after 3.10, I would have had a heart-attack - or a 'laystroke' had I said : ''No this horse can't win here, he's quite priced but it don't matter''. But, why would you do that in the first place? Anyhow, I wish them a full recovery because 310/1 was the toll on Betfair.

Going back to his debut in a National Hunt Flat race at Ludlow, and given his pedigree, it is quite striking that he was able to 'make headway 5 furlongs out' which situates us around 11 furlongs in running. It's all the same rather surprising that Lowther's dam, ever-so mediocre sprinter Ever So Lonely is by Headin' up, another sprinter whose 6f stamina index wasn't very encouraging for a trip over a mile. American-bred Sire, Beat All is by Dynaformer out of Spirited Missus. Now, Beat All was actually a decent animal, third in Oath's Derby in 1999 and glancing at his progeny stats, interestingly enough, he's had a strike-rate of 22 per cent for producing 10-11f winners but dropping as low as 7 per cent for 7-9f winners. At any rate, it has taught us backers a lesson...Why would a trainer drop back in trip that much? From 16 f to 8f! It doesn't happen than often does it? That was puzzling and there had to be a reason.

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Sources : Betfair Betting Exchanges - http://www.racingPost.com
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Beheshtam - Remember This Name

2009-05-26T19:10:00.020+01:00

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 26 May 2009 - 21.12 pm

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''Bey - Hesh - Tam''. A word of advice : Remember the name. When H.R.H Aga Khan in person attends midweek racing at Longchamp - otherwise known as 'Le Temple du Galop' - you wonder why..now we know. Surely, The Prince knows he might hold a special horse in Beheshtam, and understandably so, was eager to see the colt's performance in today's main fixture, the 55,000 € Listed-Race Prix de l'Avre.

A fortnight ago, he made his debut at Maisons-Laffitte over the long distance of thirteen furlongs - 2,600m -, in a 34,000 € prize. Poised at the back of the field, he cantered to make headway and quickly asserted to bag a very comfy win. A few hours ago, he outgunned smart Claremont in a finish that developed into a sprint. The Peintre Célèbre colt already demonstrated an usual amount of stamina and today he showed us he was able to produce a deadly turn of foot in the closing stages of a valuable contest.

It's all very well to land a Listed-Race but it's even better to evaluate the form that's behind this success. In a nutshell, here is the opposition Beheshtam was facing today :

Claremont; André Fabre-trained, fourth run, third in a Gr II last time out, Galilei two victories to date and fourth outing as well. Acteur Célèbre, third appearance and third in a Listed Race last time out. Finally, Mojave Moon, fourth outing, one victory on the clock and World Heritage with a similar scoring sheet.

Needless to say that all opponents are progressive types, trained by leading French trainers, carry excellent breeding and have a bright future ahead of them. Notably, this Prix de l'Avre was a coveted trophy since all contestants were either owned by Prince Abdullah, the Wildenstein Family , H.R.H Aga Khan, the De Moussac family or Sheikh Mohammed. Except World Heritage, all competitors have twice as much racing experience as Beheshtam. Still, he manages to defeat them. It's not so much the winning margin that's telling; actually it isn't because he won by a short-head. It's the way he stamped his authority. Had there been thirty more yards, he would have scored by a good length at least. It's all the more remarkable since they went at a pedestrian pace - 2'38''40 - and when a slowly run race unfolds, the worst position you can think of is being the back marker. Beheshtam was the back marker!

Trainer Alain de Royer-Dupré was rather impressed and so was his breeder-owner. Interviewed on Equidia, stable jockey Christophe Soumillon '' We were facing tough competitors today and that was definitely a step up in class, I tried to get him to settle down at the back and from there I knew I had the race under control. I knew I had enough left in the tank to get them. He gives his best when able to go from last to first. We might race him over a shorter distance, perhaps 2,000 m - 10 furlongs - but it could prove too short a journey. I believe he's a genuine twelve furlongs-horse and is a Grand Prix de Paris - Gr I for 3 y-o staged in Mid July at Longchamp - , truly promising but still needs to learn his job'' was impressed too!

Now the Grand Prix de Paris is nothing but a major Arc trial. The line-up is made up of the smartest three-year-old colts and fillies around and it can be considered as a French late Derby. This race is a very tough heat and has thrown up the likes of Peintre Célèbre, Beat Hollow, Bago, Scorpion, Rail Link, Montmartre... See what I'm talking about? So, when you hear three-time Champion Jockey Soumillon's comments...you know...!

Until then ''He is now going for the Prix du Lys on June 14'' - Gr III, 2,400m at Longchamp won by former stablemate Montmartre in 2008 - ''What he's done today was very hard because there wasn't any pace'', said De Royer Dupré, live on French channel Equidia.

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Sources : TV -French Horseracing Channel : Equidia. Website : http://www.equidia.fr - http://www.racingpost.com - http://www.wikipedia.org.

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Tattersalls Gold Cup, The Way The Ground Acts

2009-05-20T23:37:00.028+01:00

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 20 May 2009 - 23.55 pm
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A Coronation Stakes winner, two title-holders at Group I level in France and in Italy, a third in NewApproach's Derby, and runner-up in the French Derby. Between them, all contestants have accumulated over 3,000,000 £ in prize money. This sets the standards of this year's renewal, in other words, a fascinating contest not to be missed.

TheWayYouAre's full sister is a certain Peeping Fawn, a four-time Group I winner who defeated Light Shift on heavy ground in the 2007 Irish Oaks. I am not stating that he's as smart as Sis, but the fact that he recorded his career-best in testing conditions when landing the Gr I Criterium International, aged two, does prove his ability. This may seem a long time ago now, but generally a juvenile who scores in such events is a classy animal and provided that all the bits and pieces are coming together at the right time, the road to success is imminent. I believe that's the case of TheWayyouare.

Previously trained by Andre Fabre, Sean Mulryan's four-year-old is now in the hands of Aidan O'Brien. On his reappearance in the Prix Ganay (Gr I), he disputed the lead before being outstayed in the last 200 yards. There was no disgrace in being defeated by Vision d'Etat and Loup Breton, far from it, and more importantly, this recent outing has shown very positive signs as to his fitness and fighting spirit and the bottomline is that he'll have come on for the run. Add to that the fact that with only eight outings to date, the son of Kingmambo is far from exposed and this means there is still room for improvement. Off a best rating of 117, he doesn't have much to find on his best form to be in the shake-up.

Co-headed by Famous Name and Casual Conquest , in that order, the market is made up of a horse who should like the ground and a horse who might cope with it. Only in Sunday's Tattersalls Cup, the deciding factor will be the heavy ground, and there's one horse who is sure to love it, his name is TheWayyouare.

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Sources : http://www.racingPost.com/
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Preview - Gr I Grand-Steeple Chase de Paris

2009-05-19T23:06:00.018+01:00

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 19 & 23 Mai 2009 - 22.21 pm
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Mandarin, Katko, Al Capone II, First Gold, Kotkijet. Raw talent, stamina, agility, relentless power, determination and courage; they all won the Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris and that's what they were made of. Initially known as the Grand National de France, the Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris is nothing else but the equivalent of the Cheltenham Gold Cup. With 820,000 Euros guaranteed in prize-money, ran over a distance of 5,800 m, it is one of the greatest jump races in the world and provides the stiffest task of all and the ultimate achievement for a steeple-chaser.

With fourteen acceptors so far, the contest should be run at a decent pace, and despite reassuring echoes of 'very soft' ground, this week's winning margins indicate very testing conditions. As opposed to the Gold Cup, with the likes of Kauto and Denman, this renewal lacks a true star but with plenty of cut in the ground, whoever comes home first is a seriously good horse.

Jacques Ricou will partner 2007 victor Mid Dancer, who has worked very well at home, reported French daily Paris-Turf. He powered home with plenty left in the tank in the Ingre, said Sean Mulryan's first jockey when interviewed on 'Radio Balances'. Cyrlight is surely the classiest competitor, having put everyone in trouble on many occasions in Pattern races. The downside is that he is a bit 'risky' sometimes, overconfident in his ability his jumping can be scruffy and he'll always hit one or two fences quite hard in a race. Equally, tomorrow's 29-furlong trip has never been his cup of tea as things panned out.

Jean-Paul Gallorini tasted victory here on two occasions with Kotkijet, who was nicknamed 'Tyson' or otherwise known as 'Le Bulldozer' by Auteuil racegoers. Remember Rose came second in the Gr II Ingre. Highly regarded by his mentor, the six-year-old's prep has gone very smoothly indeed. He has not been given a hard time since his return to action in April and the mount of 15 times-Champion Jockey Christophe Pieux will be in top shape. It's also been said in the French press that trainer is oozing confidence.

Francois-Marie Cottin is delegating a big team with four runners. A dual winner of this event, Princesse d'Anjou is a fantastic mare, has the heart of a lion but her form suggests that she's on the downward curve. The daughter of Nononito is surely capable of grabbing a prize but a win would be a huge surprise.

Musica Bella was out her depth in the John Smith Grand National and she'll appreciate coming back to Auteuil but once again she seems up against it. Last but not least, on the back of two consecutive wins, Peldero is installed second favourite, trading around 3-1 surprisingly. He is definitely an improving type but to me he is not proven with the big guns.

The Willie Mullins-trained Pomme Tiepy gave a good account of himself in the Irish Grand National in which he traveled beautifully until outstayed by Niche Market and company. He has a fair chance to grab a sizeable check but going home in front of Mid Dancer, Remember Rose, Princesse D'Anjou and other course specialists looks unlikely.

Pau-based prolific trainer Jacques Ortet sends Berrryville to tackle the big boys. His third in the Ingre was most encouraging and there must be some confidence behind the son of poliglote. A most meticulous handler, Ortet knows what he's doing, saddled the 2005 winner Sleeping Jack, and tomorrow's charge is really not to be dismissed.

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Selection : Remember Rose
Biggest Threat : Mid Dancer
Outsider : Berryville.
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Sources : http://www.racingPost.com - http://www.paris-turf.com - http://www.realisateurtv.net/galopad/ (RadioBalances).

New Prix du Jockey-Club, So Far So Good?

2009-05-17T11:48:00.045+01:00

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 17 May 2009 - 12.04 pm
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In 2005, France Galop, the governing body in French racing opted to cut the French Derby from 2,400m to 2,100 meters i.e from 1m4f to 1m2f110y. As far as we know, the Irish Derby and The Derby Stakes are still run over 1m4f, aren't they? Am I missing something ? At the time, this decision was not warmly welcomed by the French professionals and it looks like their reservations were fully justified. I am not in the habit of criticizing but many, including me, are still very skeptical and the evidence below shows why.

Let's see how Jockey-Club winners fared in the Arc and in Group I races ran over 2,400m from 1997 to 2008.

.......................................................................Ran over 2.400 m ......................
1997 - Peintre Celebre - 1st - retired
1998 - Dream Well - 8th - won Irish Derby Stakes (Gr I - 12f)
1999 - Montjeu - 1st - won King George and QE Stakes (Gr I - 12f)
2000 - Holding Court - absent -
2001 - Anabaa Blue - 9th -
2002 - Sulamani - 2nd - won the Dubai Sheema Classic (Gr I - 12f).
2003 - Dalakhani - 1st - retired
2004 - Blue Canari - 12th -

......................................................................Constested over 2.100 m .......................
2005 - Shamardal - absent - won Gr I St James Palace Stakes (1m)
2006 - Darsi - absent - 5th in Irish Derby
2007 - Lawman - absent - won Gr I Jean Prat (1m)
2008 - Vision d'Etat - 5th - won Gr I Ganay (11f)

The table above speaks for itself and the verdict is very clear.

Firstly, if we consider the last eight runnings of the 'traditional' Jockey-Club, the French Classic has thrown up one absentee (Holding Court), three Arc heroes and one second. And if that wasn't a fair comparison, if we take into account the last four editions, the facts still remain with one winner (Dalakhani) and one second (Sulamani).

Secondly, since 2005, the rearranged French Derby has provided three absentees and a fifth. Shamardal, Darsi and Lawman, weren't even in the Arc line-up! That's what it means! The first three being milers rather than middle-distance horses. Arguably, a case could be made for Hurricane Run, a frustrating runner-up to Shamardal, the son of Montjeu went on to lift the Arc trophy a few months later, but again, the fact remains that prior to his scintillating win, he won the Irish Derby over twelve furlongs. Apart from Vision d'Etat who notched fifth in Zarkava's Arc, the verdict has not been very flattering...Having said that, Eric Libaud's colt landed the Gr I Prix Ganay but it's an eleven furlong event.

And thirdly, if we don't mention those who retired, Peintre Célèbre and Dalakhani, three out of six still captured Group I tournaments contested over 2,400 meters, another evidence that suggests the Jockey-Club might not lead to one of Europe's greatest races anymore. Since 1836 the French Derby had been designed to crown the best three-year-olds on the 'Distance Classique' and, there must have been a valid reason to do so for 168 years.

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Sources : http://www.racingpost.com/ - http://www.wikipedia.org/ - http://www.france-galop.com/

With the Proviso Goldikova Folds

2009-05-16T21:45:00.021+01:00

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 16 May 2009 - 22.26 pm
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FRANCE : LONGCHAMP - PRIX D'ISPAHAN

When one notices that Proviso has been kept in training by André Fabre, the first question that pops in your mind is...why? It had to be mentionned and with no intention of second-guessing the master trainer's thoughts, it would be interesting to find out why the daughter of Dansili has been stepped up to Group I company.

Early in her career, Prince Khalid Abdullah's filly showed plenty of ability. A debut winner, she took the Gr III Prix du Calvados on her second outing before she finished second in the Gr I Meon Valley Stud at Ascot. Then it has to be said that she had a mixed three-year-old campaign on the grounds of a sole victory at Listed level at Bordeaux.

Still, earlier on she displayed a very solid performance in the Diane, fourth behind the all-conquering Zarkava and until the two-furlong marker she was still second, so today's nine- furlongs will be her optimum trip. Add to that, the ground will be on the soft side; a definite advantage for her. When she made her seasonal debut in a conditions race four weeks ago, the fact is, she did not beat the smartest opposition but the job was done in impeccable fashion, clearing away with a six-length margin and THAT probably comforted Andre Fabre's decision to throw her in with the big boys.

If she is in the line-up, it means, firstly that Proviso has changed from three to four and secondly, that her mentor thinks she ought to be competitive at this level

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PRIX D'ISPAHAN PREVIEW
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Tazeez is a very solid performer who recorded a career-best in the Gr III Earl of Sefton Stakes, the form of which was boosted by Juddmonte Lockinge third Twice Over. The fact remains that his best form is at Newmarket, on good to firm to good so the potential downsides might be tomorrow's course and soft ground, the five-year old has never run here before.

Loup Breton was third here last year, will like the cut in the ground, and if able to take the lead, he'll be a big danger since he's got stamina and knows the course and distance off by heart. Just proved he is a genuine Group I horse when second to Vision d'Etat. His form is very solid. He should be in the shake-up.

Off the back of a convincing victory in the Gr III Mooresbridge Stakes, Curtain Call showed he's back into business after disposing of Famous Name. The only negatives are Luca Cumani's four-year-old failed to make a true impact at this level in four attempts and Longchamp has not been his cup of tea so far.

Goldikova's form is head and shoulders above the rest. With the proviso that she is fully fit and ready to tackle a longer trip for the first time, her opponents will find life very hard but the questions marks still remain. She is also here on her seasonal debut, but at any rate she'll be in the money.

Never on Sunday is a typical J-C Rouget-shaped horse. He's been gradually stepping up in class and will bid to provide Elusive Wave's mentor a first win in this contest. Fifth out of nine, he made an encouraging reappearance in the Gr II Prix d'Harcourt. He'll strip fitter on Sunday and given a forty-day break, will still be fresh. It's very hard to write him off, though the only reservation I would have is his ability to handle a soft surface, being by Sunday Silence.

Gris de Gris is up against it but has a reasonable chance to conclude in the frame. Celebrissime will be setting the pace for stable companion Goldikova. Runaway looks out of his depth, Gris de Gris and will need to produce an outsanding performance if he is to take a placing.

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Selection : Proviso
Biggest threat : Goldikova
Outsider : Loup Breton
Lay for a win: Curtain Call

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Sources : http://www.racingpost.com/ - www.wikipedia.org
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Sir Michael Knows it Too Well...

2009-05-14T16:49:00.022+01:00

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 14 May 2009 - 19.40 pm
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What is it that's so special about Sir Michael Stoute? A Champion trainer on nine occasions, he records fourteen wins in English Classics, came back from Ireland with eight Classic winners, saddled four Breeder's Cup victors on the American Turf. He even enjoyed Classic success in Italy. We could go on and on... he is too good!

What amazes me, is how talented - or gifted - he is when it comes to assessing horses, whether they are juveniles or three-years-olds. Now, how often do we see a thoroughbred stepping up from Maiden company to Group I battalions? Not very often ...

In my humble opinion, I also believe that such a huge step in the hierarchy can be traumatizing for horses, but certain trainers are so knowledgeable, they are just amazing, and Sir M.Stoute is one of them. Over the past twelve years, and amongst his smartest prospects at the time, the Newmarket-based trainer has not dared throwing too many into the deep; only five of them precisely. But when he has..well.. his contenders are very familiar names nowadays.

Let's start with Dilshaan who notched a second place for his debut in a Class 4 Maiden at the age of two. On his second run, he has the best turn of foot in one of the most coveted awards of the season, the RacingPost Trophy (Gr I)! It is hard to imagine but Dilshaan's rating improved by 34 lb, from a figure of 85 to a mark of 119 lb exactly.

Let's move on to Red Bloom. The daughter of Selkirk was third on her debut at two. On her second outing, she scored in a Class 4 Maiden at Newmarket and went on to lift the Meon Valley Stud (Gr I) with more than a length in hand. Rated 78lb, the numbers increased to 94 and then to 114lb in a matter of three outings.

Regal Rose, made her debut in a maiden at Ascot; she tasted victory again on her second outing in the Cheveley Park Stakes (Gr I)...She never raced again though but still, she is another example of Stoute's maestria.

The case of Exclusive is interesting too. This daughter of Polar Falcon could not have done any better in a Class 3 Maiden at Kempton. A few weeks later, she was tried in the Fillies' Mile (Gr I), where she displayed a very solid performance, taking the third place in this contest. Once again, the master trainer knew what he had on his hands. Later on, she disposed of Zalaika in the Coronation Stakes (Gr I).

These days, Entrepreneur is a renowned stallion. In 1996, the son of Sadler's Wells began his career in a Newmarket Maiden, where he finished in fourth position. After that, he came home best in a maiden at Kempton, and this victory sealed the end of his juvenile campaign. When he saw a racecourse again he bagged a Class 3 event at Chester. Here we are now, stepped up with the big guns in a Group I, he defeats Revoque in the 2,000 Guineas...

And finally, let's mention the 'Coup', the Champion Trainer made with a son of Spectrum. His name is Golan. In 2000, he landed a Class 4 Maiden at Chepstow, and correct me if I am wrong, but Chepstow is not the most notorious track to start a Classic prospect. For his seasonal debut in 2001, he goes straight to the Guineas, one of the toughest competitions for entire colts and fillies. At Newmarket, he misses the break, trails behind, and still manages to score in impressive fashion... How is that ?? The answer is ..Speechless! Apart from his mentor perhaps..who knew about the enormous potential of his athlete. As a matter of fact, the colt improved his mark by a stunning 28 lb! A year later, he will also prove too good at Ascot, in the KingGeorge VI and QE Stakes.

Harbinger is an intended runner in the Investec-sponsored Derby but he hasn't been out yet and to send an inexperienced colt straight to the Derby is probably the biggest ask for a horse. However, the fact alone that he is engaged is very telling, hence it's a fair assumption to rank him very highly. We never know with horses, but his profile is familiar... We'll have more clues in the Gr II King EdwardVII at Ascot on 19 June.

(All ratings are RPR ratings)

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Sources : www.wikipedia.org and www.racingPost.com (a very special thanks to the best website ever. I could not do my research without it!!)

Fame & Glory ? Fame & Montjeu!

2009-05-12T21:48:00.014+01:00

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 12 May 2009 - 22.40 pm
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Justifiably so, the son of Montjeu was cut to 5-2 favourite after he outclassed his rivals
in the Group 2 Derrinstown Stud at Leopardstown on Sunday. Totesport, William Hill and Victor Chandler took no chances in Fame's Derby bid.

Introducing Fame and Glory as 'the son of Montjeu ' was intentional. Why is that? Winning this Derby trial for the seventh time in eleven years must be pleasing for Coolmore, but not overly thrilling, perhaps. What must be thrilling though, is knowing that they're probably training a truly special horse, and Seamis Heffernan's comments on the RacingPost ''I've always thought that he was a special horse'' comfort that impression; so we would like to compare his performance with previous Derby trial winners, who were under Ballydoyle's care.

Archipenko (QE II Cup, ShaTin), Yeats (Coronation Cup, GoldCup) scored there and so did champions, Dylan Thomas (Irish Derby, Arc), HighChapparal (Epsom Derby) and Galileo (Epsom Derby). What's even more special in Fame and Glory's victory is that, first of all, he has been rated as highly as High Chapparal and Galileo, given a rating of 119 (RPR) exactly. And, secondly, he did nothing but a demolition job, relegating the opposition five lengths away. That's the first couple of facts.

Now, the third fact and its conclusion are even more exciting. Fame and Glory is by one of the best thoroughbreds in the world, in the shape of Montjeu, out of Gryada, by Shirley Heigths.
The third fact is that Gryada's progeny include Grampian, whose career's peak is a 5th in the KingGeorge V Handicap Stakes at Ascot racecourse. Others include, Guaranda; a modest third out of five, in a Listed Race at Salisbury and, Yummy Yummy, a mediocre Handicapper rated 79 (RPR), as well as Gaze and Gryskirk, rated 70 & 69, both rather hopeless, compared to their half-brother, Fame and Glory.

The natural thought is that, so far, and I'll conclude on that; Aidan O'Brien's best three-year-old has not inherited much of his dam Gryada, if barely anything...
Therefore, we can't help but think, that Fame and Glory, is the spitting image of a racehorse, who carved his name in the history of racing, a World Champion colt : The son of Sadler's Wells : Montjeu.

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Selection : Fame and Glory @ 3.95 with Betfair.
Biggest threat : ?
Ousider : ?

Sources : www.racingpost.com

Elusive Wave Thanks to Rainbow Quest.

2009-05-10T18:21:00.019+01:00

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 10 May 2009 - 18.46 pm
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After her romp in the French 1,000 Guineas at Longchamp, Elusive Wave notched Classic glory having led from start to finish. Installed in stall 5, Christophe Lemaire (Champion Stakes-Pride, 1,000 Guineas - Natagora) made all the running and let's be honest here, before the race and until three-furlong pole, few journalists and pedigree experts would have backed the Martin Schartz's filly for a win. The two main off-putting facts, were a three lengths defeat to Proportional in the Marcel Boussac, as well as the filly's pedigree. Just out of curiosity, let's mention it and we''ll see the impression that transpires.
Elusive City won the Richmond Stakes and the Morny, both sprint Pattern races over 6 furlongs, therefore Daddy was rated with a stamina index of 6.4f. Besides, Elusive City's Sire; Elusive Quality, never went beyond the mile until he was 5 years-old.

Naturally, it would raise the following question : Wouldn't she find the mile too long a journey?
Elusive City and, Grandad, Elusive Quality, both seem to put an end to Elusive Wave's ambitions, so the first impression was 'NO' and, THIS was the second off-putting factor.

On Mummy's side, Elusive Wave's Dam is Multicolour Wave, by Rainbow Quest and out of Echoes. Rainbow Quest was Champion three-year-old stayer in England in 1984 and the 1985 Arc winner. So, arguably, Mummy could have made up for Daddy's lack of stamina.

But was that enough? Still unsure, because we had to look at Echoes' race record beyond the mile, and well beyond the mile if possible... Echoes was Multicoulour Wave's Dam, she filled the fourth position in Passing Sale's Prix du Conseil de Paris in 1990, a Group II over 1m4f. That was a key performance and it backed her case.
Now, it is understandable why Christophe Lemaire's charge was able to make all the running and it also makes sense that the Diane is next on her agenda. (Source : http://galop.courses-france.com/plat/courses/Prix-du-Conseil-de-Paris-1980-2009.php).
For me it was definitely Proportional, but one will have to admit that she might not be as smart as last year. In the end, the Marcel Boussac provided the Poule winner.

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Sources : www.racingpost.com -www.wikipedia.org - www.courses-france.com

10 May - Poule d'Essai des Poulains Preview

2009-05-08T22:36:00.022+01:00

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 8 May 2009 - 23.46 pm
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The last two editions have not thrown out the smartest sorts (Astronomer Royal, Falco) and it wouldn't harm if the reputation of the French 2,000 Guineas was restored on Sunday. Mind you, the presence of a selected handful sets the standards, and this year's renewal is not a vintage renewal, but it ought to be good.

Le Havre saw the winners' enclosure on three occasions in four starts. He did not run his race when sent off 5-2 favourite in Zafisio's Criterium International (Gr I) at Saint Cloud last year. Probably unsuited by testing ground, he finished 7th out of 11 but the Jean-Claude Rouget-trained colt (Literato-US Ranger) shows a perfect record on good-good to soft ground. He is the one who defeated Naaqoos a month ago, in the Prix Djebel (Listed Race). He definitely looks a plausible victor.

Handsome Maestro : Unlucky 3rd, then removed 5th in the Prix de Conde (Gr III), David Smaga's charge is not to be underestimated. On this particular race, he bumped into Zafisio, so it is hard to assess his last performance as a 2 y-o. Meanwhile, he is probably the one who possess the most stamina, is a course and distance winner, and is capable to race prominently. It certainly can prove a big edge, and the best example is Falco. Last year's winner was always racing prominently and bagged this contest using a 'catch me if you can' tactics.

A dark horse could be Ballydoyle's second string in the mould of Born to be King. His unique victory was gained at Gowran Park, a right-handed course which is also a feature of Longchamp.
The Storm Cat colt has to prove it all on ratings but his seasonal debut in Gr III company (2,000 Guineas Irish trial) was far from average. A pretty close third only 2 lengths behind Intense Focus on this occasion, he is likely to improve, therefore a 2nd or 3rd place in Sunday's Group 1 seems ambitious however possible. Jamie Spencer's booking is a positive sign too.

Silver Frost : Winner of the Cabourg, (Gr III, 2y-o) finished in midfield position in Bushranger's Morny (Gr I, 2y-o -7/14); the son of Verglas has been stepped up to the mile in his last four starts and took another two Gr III events (Thomas Bryon at 2, Fontainebleau last month) over this distance. His form reads 1.3.1.1 so it makes little doubt that Sunday's challenge will be his optimum trip. Christophe Soumillon's mount commands respect.

Shaped in the provinces, Oiseau de Feu galloped very nicely in the straight, finishing well to take third behind Silver Frost and Westphalia in the Fontainebleau (Gr III). He is a progressive sort.

Diableside will represent the South West provinces of France and Yann Duperaire's 3 y-o ran well in the Prix Djebel behind Le Havre and Naaqoos. All the more hard to fancy, he has never seen Longchamp before.

Last but not least Vocalised (Vindication - Serena's Tune) might prove too good for them as the way he's been doing things so far, suggests he has never been really pushed. Stable jockey Kevin Manning will be in the saddle. It looks like Jim Bolger is oozing confidence about his colt, and when one is aware that he moulded Aidan O'Brien...no comment...lol.

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SNAPSHOT :
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Naaqoos (see previous post), Le Havre, Handsome Maestro and Vocalised sound like the most progressive types. Silver Frost's success in the prep race was very convincing, he is fairly exposed but it's equally hard to write him off for a win.

Oiseau de Feu and Born to be King, also on the upward curve, could both surprise.
Shaweel for Godolphin, and Westphalia for Coolmore, are all very decent but don't seem to possess much room for improvement; their ambitions are more than legitimate though.

Diableside will do very well to complete the quartet, whereas, Roi des Sables appears over-raced in this type of tournament and, on paper, he does not stand a chance to finish in the first three.

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Selection : Naaqoos
Biggest threat : Vocalised
Ousider : Born to be King

Sources : www.racingpost.com

Naaqoos with a Taste of Revenge

2009-05-08T20:20:00.013+01:00

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 8 May 2009 - 19.57 pm
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To start with, let's not forget that Naaqoos was rated amongst the top European juveniles last season and the Oasis Dream colt will bid to make amends for his second outing of his three year-old campaign.

Interviewed by the French press, Freddy Head's words and body language were rather worrying as to Naaqoos' future. He declared on Equidia (the French equivalent of AttheRaces or RacingUK) that his protege's performance ''was certainly disappointing and added that the once 2,000 Guineas favorite was 'douteux' (read doubtful) for Newmarket''.

Formerly known as the 'Grand Criterium', this race was cut to 1,400 m in 2001 and renamed 'the Jean-Luc Lagardere' in 2003. The likes of Rock of Gibraltar (2001), American Post (2003), Oratorio (2004), Horatio Nelson (2005) and Holy Roman Emperor (2006) emerged from this, so it mustn't be too bad a race...and Naaqoos is last year's winner... In his reappearance in the Guineas French trial at Maisons-Laffitte he did not look entirely at home and he was surprised rather than dominated.
A close look at the replay of the race will show that Naaqoos would have beaten Le Havre a few yards later.. Bearing that evidence in mind it is fair to assume that Naaqoos was not fully wound up and that this run in the Djebel will have done him the world of good.

Another fact is that Hamdan Al Maktoum's horse boasts an unbeaten record at Longchamp and his form reads : 1/7 and 1/5, when two lengths clear from Intense Focus and two lengths and a half ahead of MasterCraftsMan who by the way ran very creditably in the 2,000 (short of room in the closing stages). Pedigree and running style suggest that the mile will not be a problem but for what it's worth I do believe the 'problem' could be Jim Bolger's colt in the shape of Vocalised...

sources : www.racingpost.com - france-galop.com

Proportional Bidding 7th for Criquette.

2009-05-07T23:21:00.017+01:00

Poule D'Essai des Pouliches, Gr I, 3 y-o, Fillies - Proportional heads field of 11.
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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 7 May 2009 - 22.53 pm
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Fourth behind Copperbeech in her first start at two, Proportional's (Beat Hollow (8.9f)-Minority (Generous (11.8f)) second outing was rewarded by a narrow win in an ordinary maiden (Course F) at Chantilly.
In Britain, maiden stakes are classified into various categories, ranging from Class 6 to Class 2 for the top Maiden Stakes. In France, the hierarchy is very similar except the lowest Maiden Stakes are called 'Course G' and the top Maiden races are named 'Course B'.

But what is it that catches the eye in the career of the Beat Hollow filly?

Well... She went on straight from Maiden to Group 1 company. Only this time, the Criquette Head-trained filly scored by a very comfortable three lengths margin in the Prix Marcel Boussac, which incidently starred the likes of Zarkava (2007), Finsceal Beo (2006), Divine Proportions (2004), Denebola (2003) and Six Perfections (2002).

Beaten by Tamazirte (1st) and Soneva in the Prix de la Grotte (Gr III), it is the opinion of many racegoers and French journalists that her reappearance was a slight disappointment to say the least... It certainly isn't my opinion and I firmly believe that she raced as a rusty filly who needed the run badly. After all, she briefly took the lead at the two furlongs marker and kept the same pace for the last 200 yards, trailing only half a length behind Jean-Claude Rouget's Star filly. Ridden by Prince Khalid Abdullah's 1st jockey, Stephane Pasquier (Arc 2006 -Rail Link) has not given her a hard race and similarly to her first outing as a juvenile (4th) , she looks like the type of filly who comes an awful lot after a 'prep' run. At two, she was able to improve by a staggering 34 lbs in between her second and third outing.

Besides, a very harsh winter has not proven ideal for Chantilly-based runners. Chantilly training center, 'Les Aigles' was hit with frozen tracks, whereas South-West trained horses in particular, fared much better than usual (Le Havre beating Naaqoos in the Djebel, Tamarzite in the Grotte, etc...). And finally the good news is that Proportional's odds will be great value for money.

Holding no less than 12 successes in British Group 1 races, Criquette Head also saddled no less than six Poule d'Essai victors; so if any professional trainer knows how to win this, she is the one.
In conclusion, Proportional appears to be the major threat in Sunday's tournament.

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Closest pursuer to Proportional in last year's Boussac, Elusive Wave scored in impressive fashion in the Imprudence (Gr III). She will fare very well but is doubtful to lift the trophy. Out of Elusive City, the mile could prove too long again. Her latest rival, Entre Deux Eaux is very unlikely to reverse the form.

Tamazirte and Soneva are both very consistent and closely matched. It is not an easy task to split them and their Grotte (Gr III) run was very convincing. A good display is awaited.

Doriana is useful but fairly exposed and compared to others lots of questions are raised as to the trip, her form and her ability to handle such a big step up in class.

Fantasia drew a seven furlongs clear of his opponents in the Nell Gwynn Stakes (Gr III) and although the form is hard to evaluate she was the only filly who opposed Rainbow View, the 2008 best juvenile. Installed the odds-on favorite she will take all the beating and is bidding to become a top-class three-year-old.

And finally the Irish flag will be held by Oh Goodness Me. Victorious in the Park Express Stakes on her comeback, the daughter of Galileo doesn't know how to run a bad race and on the evidence of her tenacity in the Eyrefield Stales (Listed Race -Leopardstown,1m1f) she is entitled to display a huge performance. In fact, she was the only contender able to challenge the highly regarded Aga Khan-owned Mourayan, entered in the Irish Derby. By a Derby winner, her prominent style and stamina index enable her to lead in the early stages and hold on gamely until the post. Caution! The sorcerer's card might upset!

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Selection : Proportional
Biggest threat : Fantasia
Outsider : Oh Goodness Me

Documented sources : www.racingpost.com - www.france-galop.com - www.wikipedia.com

June 2009 Investec Derby Trends

2009-05-07T21:31:00.012+01:00

6 June – The Derby – Epsom Downs – Gr I, Class 1, 1m4f – 900,000 £ - 3yo - Classic
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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 7 May 2009 - 20.03 pm
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ONE COMMON POINT :
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All horses had at least 2 wins pre-race. 12/12
Since 1997, with the exception of Oath, all competitors have been tried in Pattern company either Group I, II, or III where they all finished in the first three.

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RATINGS :
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All reached the crucial mark of 107+ RPR or TS (RacingPostRatings – TopSpeed) at 3 year-old. 12/12.

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QUICK LEARNERS:
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As in any classic race, only the most progressive colts are thrown into the deep end and past winners have shown ability to improve dramatically from one run to another. In the make of a future champion, the first 3 runs count the most and positive signs are detected early.
Over the last 12 years all contestants, in their previous runs, have improved their rating by a minimum of 22 lbs between their 1st, 2nd and/or 3rd outing. 11/12.
The exception is Oath who nonetheless progressed in leaps and bounds during his 3 y-o campaign.

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TOP SPEED :
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Notoriously tough to win, The Derby associates both high cruising speed and stamina with a potential winner. It is a Classic, and there aren’t many Classics, only five of them.
All Speed figures BAR two range from 92 to 126 (RacingPost TopSpeed) 10/12.
Exceptions are High Rise (TS 78) and Galileo (TS 82) but their form read 1.1.1 ....for as many outings their best PR also read 119 and 107.

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LAST RUN :
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All made their reappearance in their 3 y-o campaign. Transition from 2 to 3 y-o is critical in Flat racing, trainers do need to assess their colts...It seems inconceivable to throw a colt straight in the Derby without having ran at 3yrs old.

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EXPERIENCE : BETWEEN 3 AND 7 OUTINGS :
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All previous winners have seen a racecourse at least on 3 occasions whereas no colt has had more than 7 appearances. New Approach and Benny the Dip were arguably the most experienced.

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DID THEY WIN LAST TIME OUT? :
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Not necessarily. However, a solid run is vital as none finished further than second. 12/12.
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EXCEPTION :
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The case of Oath. From 2 to 3 y-o risen 31 lbs! The Henry Cecil trained colt progress was that of a late developer. As a juvenile (2y-o), first three runs of very mediocre class ranging from 77 RPR to 87 RPR, Class 4 handicaps ratings....
Only, in his fourth outing (at 3y-o) did he showed considerable progress, boasting an impressive 20 lb rise (107 RPR) in weights followed by another 11 lbs courtesy of his Chester win (118 RPR - Listed Race), he was later promoted to Group III level (Kris Kin).

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OTHER FACTORS :
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About The Irish factor ...interesting to note that Sinndar (2000), Galileo (2001), High Chaparral (2002), and more recently New Approach (2008) are all in the hands of three top Irish trainers, respectively John Oxx, A.P.O’Brien and Jim Bolger all have contested two outings prior to the Derby.

sources : www.racingpost.com - www.wikipedia.org