tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28874813843478896332024-03-18T20:55:06.762-07:00TwinSpires BlogTwinSpires.com: Where players win
TwinSpires Blog: Where players talkAdminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027908731985349760noreply@blogger.comBlogger1108125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-55458919355578276302015-09-04T09:10:00.001-07:002015-09-04T09:10:47.147-07:00TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast with Derek Simon 09/04 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts<a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/twinspires/2015/09/04/twinspires-horse-racing-podcast-with-derek-simon#.VenCfeNkwjQ.blogger">TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast with Derek Simon 09/04 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts</a>Derek Simonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17033757422117269120noreply@blogger.com460tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-2590025428364532982015-04-25T10:35:00.001-07:002015-04-25T10:35:45.272-07:00TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 04/25 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts<a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/twinspires/2015/04/25/twinspires-horse-racing-podcast-wderek-simon#.VTvQahkCIuY.blogger">TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 04/25 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts</a>Derek Simonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17033757422117269120noreply@blogger.com376tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-83964957230804160222015-03-27T12:55:00.001-07:002015-03-27T12:55:26.521-07:00TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 03/27 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts<a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/twinspires/2015/03/27/twinspires-horse-racing-podcast-wderek-simon#.VRW1o7_XFAk.blogger">TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 03/27 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts</a>Derek Simonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17033757422117269120noreply@blogger.com353tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-71122776717859210952014-12-19T11:37:00.001-08:002014-12-19T11:37:45.638-08:00TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 12/17 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports PodcastsTwinSpires' Derek Simon discusses track bias, with an assist from "Betting Thoroughbreds" author Steve Davidowitz.<br />
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In the U. of Bet, Derek tackles the tote board, with an in-depth look at "insider" betting. How can one spot it and is it meaningful?<br />
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Lastly, in the Handicapping segment, Derek analyzes the 8th race at Hawthorne Park and explains when and why a likely slow pace is meaningful. <br />
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<a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/twinspires/2014/12/17/twinspires-horse-racing-podcast-wderek-simon#.VJR98sxNx_g.blogger">TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 12/17 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts</a>Derek Simonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17033757422117269120noreply@blogger.com856tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-22409698083358240682014-11-06T11:45:00.002-08:002014-11-06T11:45:51.854-08:00TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 11/05 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts<div style="text-align: justify;">
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Host Derek Simon recaps the 2014 Breeders’ Cup and uses his speed rations (pace figures) to answer the burning question: “Was there a speed bias at Santa Anita over BC weekend?”<br />
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Derek also weighs in on the non-disqualification of Bayern and a bunch of other racing-related stuff.</div>
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<a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/twinspires/2014/11/05/twinspires-horse-racing-podcast-wderek-simon#.VFvPN1fAjHI.blogger">TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 11/05 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts</a></div>
Derek Simonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17033757422117269120noreply@blogger.com800tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-33714828892410238052014-10-30T20:30:00.000-07:002014-10-30T20:30:58.015-07:00TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 10/29 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts<div class="_5pbx userContent" data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" style="text-align: justify;">
Derek Simon of <a href="http://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2FTwinSpires.com%2F&h=uAQEgsuni&enc=AZMBzrWBmqKGBpIGVT_i_2xhgfw2Ar32-JxdnqByH_AYDzgvYaUqttsnZhizfH-4YiBOPcs8LkoYJvgiGmZcziqyBCht104dg9mjLfh45cRud6lmLR14LprxwDmIG9lrH1M6Di2P4p__ZewsVz1L50l2&s=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">TwinSpires.com</a> and Ed DeRosa of <a href="http://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2FBrisnet.com%2F&h=aAQFsSrVF&enc=AZPGhw4pjsL62NUmBVvtohdJgT-gI-gx_XSZTETQPV9UoPz_nV09qAlTZSX7RGTDebaM0ZPUMZlRq50IBQOPQuTTQ30A2BX6s4GdESFEU0M9jh4Od8mZkN8gB9YR6oHr78BbjBZOfQ8CyKv7SgH05-oy&s=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Brisnet.com</a> preview the 2014 Breeders’ Cup races and Ed gives out his weekend "singles."<br />
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In the Handicapping segment, Derek takes a further, more in-depth look at selected BC races, including the Classic. He also drops more stats than Eminem drops rhymes.<br />
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<a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/twinspires/2014/10/29/twinspires-horse-racing-podcast-wderek-simon#.VFMB4RD1J94.blogger">TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 10/29 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts</a></div>
Derek Simonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17033757422117269120noreply@blogger.com864tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-68013910010095982972014-10-23T11:38:00.003-07:002014-10-23T11:38:58.532-07:00TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 10/22 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports PodcastsIn the News & Notes segment, host Derek Simon discusses the top stories in the Sport of Kings, including a new claiming rule in New York and a tragic confrontation between Steve Coburn, part-owner of California Chrome, and some members of the Breeders’ Cup media.<br />
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In the U. of Bet / History segment, Derek discusses a great piece by Patrick Cummings regarding the way races are timed in the U.S.<br />
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Lastly, in the Handicapping segment, the Breeders’ Cup Classic is analyzed. <br />
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<a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/twinspires/2014/10/22/twinspires-horse-racing-podcast-wderek-simon#.VElKq-DqwIc.blogger">TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 10/22 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts</a>Derek Simonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17033757422117269120noreply@blogger.com271tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-3528479629290868732014-10-02T09:50:00.002-07:002014-10-02T09:51:29.901-07:00TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 10/01 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Host Derek Simon recaps "Super Saturday" and offers a bevy of Breeders' Cup stats sure to cure insomnia.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">* What BC race best suits Bayern?</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">* Which sophomore star fits the profile of a Breeders' Cup Classic winner: California Chrome, Shared Belief or Tonalist?</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">* Is the great Untapable back?</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">* Did Beholder do enough in the Zenyatta to make her the Distaff favorite?</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">* How do Belmont shippers do in BC races at Santa Anita?</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">These questions -- and more -- will be answered... maybe not well, but they<i> will</i> be answered.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/twinspires/2014/10/01/twinspires-horse-racing-podcast-wderek-simon#.VC2B0IYNU8c.blogger">TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 10/01 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts</a></span></span></span></div>
Derek Simonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17033757422117269120noreply@blogger.com162tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-31644441627945614152014-09-26T11:31:00.000-07:002014-09-26T11:31:00.143-07:00TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 09/24 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">In the News & Notes segment, host Derek Simon discusses a great article in <i>The Guardian</i><br />
entitled “<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/sep/23/racing-racetrack-surfaces-horse-deaths">Scratching<span style="color: #444444;"> </span>the surface: US racing looks to track conditions to lower injury rates</a>.”</span></span></span><br />
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Then, he takes up the bizarre tale of a feud between a supermodel and a onetime super horse, California Chrome.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Lastly, in an elongated Handicapping segment, Derek previews “Super Saturday,” as well as some other races being run on Friday.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/twinspires/2014/09/24/twinspires-horse-racing-podcast-wderek-simon#.VCWwPtUvfKA.blogger">TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 09/24 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts</a></span></span></span></div>
Derek Simonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17033757422117269120noreply@blogger.com471tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-12098639279164319362014-09-17T14:30:00.001-07:002014-09-17T14:35:10.296-07:00TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 09/17 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts<div class="KonaBody player-description" style="text-align: justify;">
Host Derek Simon discusses the announced closing of Suffolk Downs after 79 years of hosting
thoroughbred racing, relating it to the closing of Longacres Park in 1992.<br />
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In the <i>I Need to Know</i> segment, Derek explains how handicapping dogma keeps many players in the pari-mutuel dog house. And, lastly, in the <i>Handicapping </i>segment, he offers a potential play from Suffolk Downs (it seemed appropriate) and looks ahead to this weekend’s big races at Parx.</div>
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<a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/twinspires/2014/09/17/twinspires-horse-racing-podcast-wderek-simon#.VBn8PxUufuY.blogger">TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 09/17 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts</a></div>
Derek Simonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17033757422117269120noreply@blogger.com292tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-38613797491920668832014-09-14T19:18:00.005-07:002014-09-14T19:18:50.593-07:00Twin Spires Harness Racing Blog<span style="font-size: large;">We've moved.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">For the Sept. 14 main harness blog please <br /><br /><a href="http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2014/9/14/cotolo%E2%80%99s-harness-review-news-and-notes">CLICK HERE</a></span><br />
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<br />Frank Cotolohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14553088072331342917noreply@blogger.com211tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-59571920392695782622014-09-10T20:25:00.000-07:002014-09-10T20:25:07.527-07:00Steadfast Steeds Star In Stakes<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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September’s stay in Canada ensues as Mohawk stays the center
of attraction with the sport’s top events of the week. Frosh trotters of both
sexes, many stars of the season, including glamour-boy-and-girl trotters from
the Hambletonian Trail, are the focus of the Saturday, Sept. 13 program.<br />
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Freshman colt-and-filly-pacer battles will also be covered on our exclusive blog,
this year’s <a href="http://countdownbcrown.blogspot.com/"><span style="color: windowtext;">Breeders Crown Countdown</span></a>, including the Reynolds
Stakes from Tioga Downs’ penultimate program of this meet. Also, the Milton
Stakes elims at Mohawk add to the content. We link to the “Countdown” blog from
this main blog for coverage of races through the rest of the season leading to
the championship events in November, in cooperation with the <a href="http://www.hambletonian.org/"><span style="color: windowtext;">Hambletonian
Society</span></a> and <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/"><span style="color: windowtext;">TwinSpires</span></a>. <br />
<br />
Check out TwinSpires-Hoosier Park’s <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/10-pick-4-bonus-every-night-hoosier-park"><span style="color: windowtext;">10-percent bonus</span></a> for hitting Pick 4s every
night there is racing at the Indiana track. And, of course, our horses-to-watch
list (H2W) offers live contenders for win, place, show and exotics from tracks
across the continent. <br />
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Of course, the H2W list rolls on through the ninth month with suggested
contenders that may complement your win, place, show and exotic combos at many
harness tracks across North America.<br />
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And a special, added attraction to our weekly blogs goes into play with Little
Brown Jug week and all the weekday action starting Monday, Sept. 15. Look here
and watch the TwinSpires Facebook page and Twitter feed to be on top of some
hot contenders during the week that ends after Thursday, Sept. 18, with America’s
Pace, the Little Brown Jug.</i><br />
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Classic Trotters In Canada</b><br />
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The $682,000 Canadian Trotting Classic
(CTC) headlines Saturday, Sept. 13, at Mohawk Racetrack. As has been the case
all season with the glamour-boy trotters, a major stakes field is highlighted
by the Jimmy Takter-trained duo of Father Patrick and Trixton.<br />
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We all know that what happened to Father Patrick in the Hambletonian was a
striking misfortune and that his stable mate, Trixton, took advantage of it to
win. Then Father Patrick returned and was nipped by Datsyuk for his only two
losses of the season. He regained dominance by winning the Zweig and
Pennsylvania Sires Stakes Championship just like the Father Patrick that would
have won the Hambletonian. <br />
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It is important to pay attention to Takter, who wrote the following tweet
recently: “Father Patrick, so special, just makes it look so easy, my best
horse ever.” So go no further with your CTC handicapping—Father Patrick is
still the best this division has seen in a long time. As well, he<span style="background: white; color: #292f33; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15.5pt; letter-spacing: .15pt;"> </span>is undefeated
in three starts at Mohawk.<br />
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If Trixton is looking to defeat his stable mate once again in a rich stakes
event he will have to pray that Father Patrick is a victim of circumstance
again. Even though Trixton has had success at Mohawk this season and holds the
Mohawk track record for a three-year-old trotter (1:51.3), he has to beat
Father Patrick fair and square once to prove he is near as good.<br />
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Local standout Harper Blue Chip has dominated the Ontario Sires Stakes circuit
this season and finished third in the Hambletonian, though he was far back from
Trixton and Nuncio. “Harper” is definitely an exotic wagering element. The
other four are E L Titan, Muscle Matters, Il Sogno Dream and
Damfoolrmillionair, minor to no threats.<br />
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Elegant And Elite</b><br />
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The $409,000 Elegantimage Stakes, which
used to be contested in June, is also on the Sept. 13 program at Mohawk,
featuring 11 of the best soph-trotting fillies. Takter sends out the favorite
in this event, too. Certainly a standout for us during the season, Shake It
Cerry trots a mile above this group. Takter also senda out Scream And Shout,
yet to be proven worthy of this caliber. <br />
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Completing the field are Demanding Sam, Tosca, Riveting Rosie, Vanity Matters,
Chivaree Hanover, Sweetie Hearts, Muscle Babe, Designed To Be and Ake
Svanstedt’s Heavens Door. Since “Designed” is bound to be a second choice,
Ake’s “Door” may go off as a good exacta choice and if Designed happens to be
beat for third, any of the others will key a great triactor.<br />
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Well, Well, Wellwood</b><br />
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Two eliminations were raced last Saturday as non-betting events (after being
cancelled on Friday due to a lightning storm at Mohawk) deciding the 10
two-year-old colts making up the field of the $390,000 William Wellwood
Memorial final.<br />
<br />
Uncle Lasse, a full brother to Shake It Cerry, won the first. Trained by
Takter, Uncle Lasse has won three of six starts and has never been worse than
third. The second went to Lookslikeachpndale, a son of Muscle Hill, trained by
Luc Blais, in 1:56.2. It was the graduation of maiden to winner for
Lookslikeachpndale. Completing the field are Gifted Way, Dont Rush, Aldebaran
Eagle, Habitat, Jetpedia, Southwind Stryker, Wheels Ah Smokin and Big Rich.<br />
<br />
We had Jetpedia last week and he was second in one elim and we had Wheels Ah
Smokin in the other where he finished sixth. However, they appear to be strong
exacta partners this week for Habitat. Were there wagering, Habitat would have
been a huge favorite, so it works out for bettors that there were two other
elim winners; now Habitat may be a second or third choice and that is a good
thing for a win bet and, as mentioned, to be keyed with the two we supported
last week.<br />
<br /><b>
Peaceful Ways</b><br />
<br />
The $385,000 Peaceful Way Stakes, for
two-year-old filly trotters features another standout, a world champion in a
group of 10, Mission Brief. The daughter of Muscle Hill won her elimination
last week in a world record time of 1:52.1 and has been a sterling model for
victory most of the second half of the season for trainer Ron Burke. Driver
Yannick Gingras said she hasn’t even given her best yet. “She had plenty left
[in last week’s elim], she is scary scary fast,” said Gingras. <br />
<br />
Jolene Jolene won the other elimination, a daughter of Muscle Hill trained by
Jonas Czernyson, in 1:55.1. We supported her as she approached her current form
and peaked recently. Jolene Jolene has won three consecutive starts and
finished second to Mission Brief on Hambletonian day (we supported that
exacta). These two represent the exacta, which will return very little, leaving
your judgment as the to-play-or-not-play factor.<br />
<br /><b>
Ruling The Empire</b><br />
<br />
The New York Sires Stakes (NYSS) Night of Champions at Yonkers is the Saturday,
Sept. 13 highlight in the Empire State’s standardbred business and bettors
beyond the borders can wager on eight events featuring the best two- and
three-year-olds of the 2014 season. Each final is worth $225,000. Races two
through nine on the 13-race card ($10,000 guaranteed pool Pick 5, 50-cent base
wager races 5 through 9). For the sake of brevity, we will list the final and
our two suggested contenders in the order the races appear on the program.<br />
<br />
Two-year-old filly trot: Concentration; Kaliska<br />
Three-year-old filly pace: Table Talk; Medusa<br />
Two-year-old filly pace: Mosquito Blue Chip; Band Of Angels<br />
Three-year-old filly trot: Market Rally; Avalicious<br />
Two-year-old colt trot: Royal Deceptor; Crazy Wow<br />
Three-year-old colt pace: All Bets Off; Stay Up Late<br />
Two-year-old colt pace: Cartoon Daddy; Americanprimetime<br />
Three-year-old colt trot: Gural Hanover; Zoey De Vie<br />
<i><br />
</i><b>The Company ‘Smith’</b><br />
<br />
On Friday, , Sept. 12, Freehold presents the Charles Smith for $55,000. Once a
stable in the Hambletonian Trail stream of races, glamour-boy trotters take to
the half-mile in the new millennium with less initiative, as well as less to
win from a purse reduced greatly. In any event, this seven-horse field is an
opportunity for Well Built to dominate as was once thought he could do this
season in the division. He is up against far less than he faced when his gait
problem began in May, so it remains to be seen how the public approaches this
crew. We would use him as a key if he turns out to the be top choice and use
Skates N Plates and Hillustrious with him.<br />
<br /><i>
H2W Legend</i><br />
<br />
Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are
possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are
listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The
race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front
of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last
time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the
horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer
to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than
one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your
judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires. <br />
<br /><b>
H2W </b><br />
<br />
Batavia<br />
9/12/14, +Studio City R7 <br />
9/13/14, +King William R6; Sbm Innocentoutlaw R8; Peter Pumpkineater R11<br />
<br />
Freehold<br />
9/12/14, +Fancy Pants Sandy R6; Big Sky Angelina R10<br />
9/13/14, +Mooshead Jack R5; +Card Shock R8
<br />
<br />
Hoosier<br />
9/13/14, Allthatgltrsisgold R3; +Matt The Bruiser R6; Ransomed R6; +Red Scooter
R7; +Light Up The Sky R8; Jammin Joseph R12; +Battle Gun R14; +Star City Hero
R14Z<br />
<br />
Maywood<br />
9/11/14, +Delightful Dot R7<br />
9/12/14, Brianna Official R1; +R Dunshine R4; +Donald Himself R8; +Online
Learning R9<br />
<br />
Meadows<br />
9/12/14, Upfront Dean R5; Violet Eyes R8; Southern Allie R9; Iwanashowusomthin
R10; +Incredible Dragon R11 <br />
<br />
Plainridge<br />
9/13/14, +Painting The Town R8<br />
<br />
Philadelphia<br />
9/11/14, +Smilin Eli R6<br />
<br />
Rosecroft<br />
9/13/14, Speeditup Hanover R6; +South Dakota R12<br />
<br />
Saratoga<br />
9/11/14, +Dontmakemelaugh R4<br />
9/13/14, Big Bambu R1; Major Steve R3; Mr Rockford R3; Avogadro Hanover R11<br />
<br />
Scioto<br />
9/12/14, Shakin Friskie R10<br />
<br />
Tioga<br />
9/12/14, +Mcardles Lightning R4; Winbak Glory ae R9<br />
<br />
Vernon<br />
9/13/14, Avivas Winner R11; Skyway Poncho R12
<br />
<br />
Yonkers<br />
9/13/14, +Big Jer R12<br />
<br />
<i>Ray Cotolo contributes to each edition.
<br />
<br />
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Frank Cotolohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14553088072331342917noreply@blogger.com671tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-1030021087733003732014-09-07T18:47:00.001-07:002014-09-07T18:47:12.010-07:00Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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The
weekend began on Friday, Sept 6 with a lightning storm so intense that Mohawk
cancelled its program. With it went the eliminations for the William Wellwood.
Those two events were raced on Saturday as non-betting events. The “Wellwood”
goes next week.<br />
<br />
Yes, the harness blog for TwinSpires is still at this location. Make a note
that the TwinSpires harness blogs are moving to a new address—the official
TwinSpires website; we missed our Sept. 4 deadline, as technical glitches are
being worked out. Soon the move will been established. We will guide you to the
page from this residence and our personal pages on Twitter and Facebook.<br />
<br />
The <a href="http://countdownbcrown.blogspot.com/">Breeders Crown Countdown</a> blog will
stay at its current location and we will be linking to it for coverage of races
connected to “Crown” eligibles leading to the championship events in November.
Don’t miss one episode and look for archived race reviews at the <a href="http://www.hambletonian.org/">Hambletonian Society</a> site.<br />
<br />
This week’s “Countdown” races were at Mohawk for frosh and soph, colt and filly
pacers. We had one winner there with The Show Returns ($4.90, $3.30, $2.40), a
second with Winds Of Change ($5.80, $3.60; Exacta $14.50), and a third with
Shes A Hot Mess ($2.80).<br />
<br />
It was a big sires stakes finals weekend and our best results came from
Northfield, which we displayed as part of the horses-to-watch list (H2W). Of
the eight Ohio Sires Stakes finals we nailed four, including, from high price
to low (see below for exact pay outs), Honey B, Lofty Chip, Friskie Til Dawn
and Crown Time Keeper. <br />
<br />
We only had a single winner at Hoosier Park’s state-bred parade of finals, with
Always B Miki ($2.40, $2.10, $2.10 ok). We were second with Andi’s Alana
($2.20, $2.10) and third with Golden Big Stick ($3.20). <br />
<br />
We were off the board with the Pocono state-breds on Saturday. On Sunday at
Philadelphia we had Father Patrick ($2.40, $2.10, n/s) and second with
Limelight Beach ($2.80 n/s Exacta $8.60).<br />
<br />
TwinSpires and Hoosier continue a three-pronged power-packed program for
harness players. Tuesdays, wager all you want and earn 10 TSC Elite Points per
dollar bet. <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/10x-tuesdays-hoosier-park"><span style="color: windowtext;">Click here for details</span></a>. Every Thursday
night, there is a 20-percent bonus on hitting the Pick 4 starting at Race 3. <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/20-pick-4-bonus-thursday-nights-hoosier-park"><span style="color: windowtext;">Click here for details</span></a>. And the ongoing
10-percent Pick-4 bonus every racing night on Pick-4 hits continues through the
meet. <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/10-pick-4-bonus-every-night-hoosier-park"><span style="color: windowtext;">Click here for details</span></a>.<br />
<br />
In between published harness blogs, follow @FrankCotolo and @TwinSpires on
Twitter to get tips on Hoosier contenders you can use in your tickets. Other
possibilities appear in exclusive H2W list.<br />
<br /><b>
H2W RESULTS</b><br />
<br />
The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Also, exactas are included when a
H2W horse finishing first or second completes the result with a race favorite
or another H2W horse listed in the same race (an asterisk appears when both
horses were listed to complete the exacta). This week, there were 49 active
horses on the H2W list. <br />
<br />
Winners<br />
<br />
Honey B, $53.40, $16.20, $7.80, Northfield<br />
Lofty Chip, $15.60, $6.80, $3.80, Northfield<br />
Friskie Til Dawn, $12. $4.80, $2.80, Northfield<br />
Tempster Hanover, $9.40, $5, $4, Scioto<br />
Lawgiver Hanover, $5.50, $2.20, $2.70 ok, Yonkers<br />
Winmando, $5, $2.40, $2.20, Ocean<br />
Whowhohoosier, $4.80, $4.20, $3.40, Scioto<br />
Crafty Time Keeper, $4.40, $2.20, $2.10, Northfield<br />
Jetting Around, $2.80, $2.20, $2.10, Maywood<br />
<br />
Seconds<br />
<br />
Emilene’s Future, $6.80, Northfield<br />
Pro Deuce, $6.40, $4.60, Scioto<br />
Impersonal, $5, $3.80 (Exacta $13.80), Maywood<br />
Gallie Bythe Beach, $4.60, $3.20 (Exacta $16.40), Philadelphia<br />
Delightful Dot, $4, $3.40 (Exacta $21.40), Maywood<br />
Painting The Town, $2.80, $2.80 ok, Plainridge<br />
Student Of Life, $2.80, n/s, Northfield<br />
Peter Pumpkineater, $2.70, $2.20 (Exacta $12.20), Batavia<br />
<br />
Thirds<br />
<br />
Ten Yard Penalty, $6, Tioga<br />
Donald Himself, $5.20, Maywood<br />
Money Paige, $4.40, Ocean<br />
Incredible Dragon, $4.20, Meadows<br />
Mr Thomson, $3.80, Freehold<br />
Fancy Pants Sandy, $3.20, Freehold<br />
Big Jer, $2.90, Yonkers<br />
Canbec Jewell Charlie, $2.50, Vernon<br />
Dellou, $2.20, Northfield<br />
Can’tcutthatchip, n/s, Scioto<br />
<br /><b>
News & Notes</b><br />
<br />
Scioto Downs is still one outpost for our exclusive H2W but the track’s seventh decade in 2010 was a grim
shadow of the once lucrative Ohio track. GM of racing Stacy Cahill had said
there may be no choice but to close. But by June, 2012 after a racetrack-casino
law was passed, Scioto became Ohio’s first “racino.” Cahill said the change met
its promise and horsemen are happy. After dropping to $2.39 million in total
purses in 2010, Scioto offered $9.89 million in purses during 2014 which more
than doubled the $4.73 million at the track in 2012. Before this past weekend’s
program, Scioto offered total purses of $11.71 million through 78 programs.<br />
<br />
Midwest champion trainer Virgil Morgan, Jr. said Scioto is the best it has
been. He has stayed, along with other popular horsemen, including Ronnie Wrenn,
Jr., Josh Sutton and Aaron Merriman. “The money is unbelievable,” Merriman told
the <i>Cleveland Plain Dealer</i> “[Many horsemen] ot racing for [good] money
for so long, everybody wants it so bad now. And the horses are so much better.”
There are purses and full fields, many with 10 horses. Scioto horses will
continue to be monitored and will stay on the H2W list because the racing is
great and TwinSpires bettors deserve the best competition possible when
playing. <br />
<br />
When Yonkers Raceway hosts the 25<sup>th</sup> edition of the New York
Night of Champions on Sept. 13, with $1.8 million in purses (eight sire stakes
finals for two- and three-year-olds at $225,000 each, the track will offer a $10,000
guaranteed Pick 5 pool. The 50-cent wager includes races 5 through 9. As per
existing Pick 5 rules, should no one select all five winners, the entire pool
(minus takeout) would carry over to the Sept. 15 card. <br />
<br />
The next big thing in harness for the season is the Little Brown Jug and the
TwinSpires harness social network will be in session all week, from Sept. 14
through “Jug” day, Sept. 18. Look for suggested contenders for many of the
great stakes events the Delaware, Ohio meet offers. The track publicity
department ranks Mcwicked as the number-one contender, followed by He’s
Watching, Somewhere in LA, Sometimes Said, Lyonssomewhere, Limelight Beach, At
Press Time, Cammikey, On Golden Ponder and Beat The Drum. Seven of those are
Ontario-trained colts. We are keeping a close eye on Limelight Beach’s preps
before the Ohio heats. With a new home in the Ron Burke barn and Burke feeling
this one is his shot for a Jug, the price may be right, especially against the
popular Mcwicked, who doesn’t always live up to his one-dimensional penchant
for speed.<br />
<br />
Continuing our scan on drivers with streaks, we make note that Dave Palone’s
seven-win program at the Meadows on Sept. 4 tossed a profit of $10. However,
one horse made that possible, an $11.20 winner in Race 6. The next highest
price paid by a Palone winner was $7 and the lowest was $2.20. As well, some of
his losers in the other seven races in which he participated were big
favorites. Palone continues to be a great driver, of course, but he is not a
flat-bet profit regardless of his humungous number of career wins. <br />
<br />
<b>Extraordinary Extras </b><br />
<br />
Indulge in many standardbred topics at my <i>Hoof Beats</i> blog titled <a href="http://www.hoofbeatsmagazine.com/cotolo.cfm"><span style="color: windowtext;">Vast
Performances</span></a>. <br />
<br />
<i>Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog <br />
<br />
Cartoons by Thom Pye ~ For more Thom Pye cartoon, informative harness history
and products, <a href="http://www.pyesite.com/">click here</a> ~<br />
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Frank Cotolohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14553088072331342917noreply@blogger.com174tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-26217943621339493782014-09-03T20:28:00.000-07:002014-09-03T20:28:06.079-07:00Money Miles On Tap<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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As September enters its first weekend, we stay in Canada for
a number of Grand Circuit (GC) stakes at Mohawk. There are numerous co-stars
this weekend; all in the U.S., with sires stakes championships from Indiana and
Pennsylvania (there are others, such as Ohio, but selections for those are
included in the horses-to-watch—H2W—list below).<br />
<br />
Champlain and Simcoe GC events for Sept. 6 at Mohawk will be covered on our exclusive blog,
this year’s <a href="http://countdownbcrown.blogspot.com/"><span style="color: windowtext;">Breeders Crown Countdown</span></a>, now on line. We
link to it from this main blog for coverage of races through the rest of the
season leading to the championship events in November, in cooperation with the <a href="http://www.hambletonian.org/"><span style="color: windowtext;">Hambletonian
Society</span></a> and <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/"><span style="color: windowtext;">TwinSpires</span></a>. <br />
<br />
Check out TwinSpires-Hoosier Park’s <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/10-pick-4-bonus-every-night-hoosier-park"><span style="color: windowtext;">10-percent bonus</span></a> for hitting Pick 4s every
night there is racing at the Indiana track. And, of course, our horses-to-watch
list (H2W) offers live contenders for win, place, show and exotics from tracks
across the continent. <br />
<br />
Of course, the H2W list rolls on through the ninth month with suggested
contenders that may complement your win, place, show and exotic combos at many
harness tracks across North America.<br />
<br /><b>
The ‘Wellwood’ Gang </b><br />
<br />
Last week’s Metro Pace highlighted the frosh-colt pacers with their biggest
purse and strongest challenge to date. This week, on Sept. 5 at Mohawk,
frosh-trotting colts go in a pair of $30,000 elims to meet their greatest
challenge yet, the William Wellwood Memorial (WWM) Final, next week.<br />
<br />
There are only six colts in the first elim but none in the sextet can be easily
dismissed. They are green and relatively unpredictable but not without their
strengths already displayed through the first half of the season.<br />
<br />
Jimmy Takter’s Uncle Lasse is bound to get a lot of win coverage and not just
for the trainer’s reputation. In the Donato Hanover product’s recent race he
won smoothly at Pocono after strong battles (finishing second) with Centurion
Atm in the “Haughton” elim and final at the Meadowlands. <br />
<br />
Ron Burke’s Habitat has won three of five on a road tour, including a Champlain
at Mohawk, a Tompkins at Tioga and a Kindergarten at the Meadowlands. There
will be pennies between the odds of these two, leaving some breathing room for
an improving member of the division, who we liked last week in a Champlain,
Wheels Ah Smokin.<br />
<br />
He may share third-public choice status with Don’t Rush from the rail but
“Wheels” won’t get the obvious interest of the two aforementioned colts. Still,
Wheels has won a Kindergarten as the drop-dead favorite (two back) and he was a
second choice to Habitat at the Meadowlands in another Kindergarten. Trainer
Chuck Sylvester is priming this guy, hoping to mature him for his wealthy
owners who can eye the 2015 Hambletonian. Wheels is a son of Muscles Yankee,
the sire of Hambletonian champ Muscle Hill. Sylvester trained Muscles Yankee
(his third Hambo winner) and two seasons back was close to a fourth win with
Lucky Chucky. It is best to go with the sleeper here because the odds should be
good and you want to be there if this is the wake-up race (his morning line is
8-1).<br />
<br />
Three of the seven in the second WWM elim are maidens and the best number of
wins in the field is two, from the morning-line choice Cruzado Dela Noche. This
is the colt that followed Uncle Lasse (elim one) while he was chasing Centurian
Atm. The second morning-line choice could be the public’s—Gifted Way. <br />
<br />
We are interested in the rail horse, Jetpedia. He is a son of the productive
frosh sire Muscle Hill and he really has done no wrong in five starts. He broke
here at 3-1 in a stakes final two back, after being the choice in the elim that
got him there. He came back in a Champlain last week and started slowly,
spotting the field almost 11 lengths. He was fourth by only 5 ¾ lengths, to
Habitat (elim one), who rested a few lengths to win by 2 ½ lengths. He is a horse
to watch and in this field a horse to bet, since he has every right to improve
and the public will not offer him the kinds of odds he may rightly deserve.<br />
<br />
<b>Pennsylvania Polkas</b><br />
<br />
The Pennsylvania Sires Stakes (PASS) will dance from the mountains of Pocono to
the populated perimeter of Philadelphia over two tracks in as many days to
crown their state-bred champs in the two-and three-year-old categories. On
Sept. 6 the four frosh groups meet at Pocono Downs and on Sept. 7 the sophomore
crews battle at Harrah’s at Philadelphia.<br />
<br />
We start on Saturday, Sept. 6 at Pocono Downs with four mega-purse PASS finals
for freshmen. The first is a $260,000 championship for filly pacers. Bound to
dominate the win pool is one of three Ron Burke gals, Southwind Roulette. The
public will be impressed by her earnings, sire and speed badge but these strong factors do not give her an
automatic victory. Indeed, we call your attention to Special Package from the
rail. Tom Fanning’s daughter of Western Terror (an increasingly productive
sire) has made it to the final round only winning one for six this season but
her two seconds are commendable and impressive. She will offer a good win price
as this field will be imbalanced in the betting due to Burke.<br />
<br />
Next for the same purse, filly trotters face their largest pot. Three from
Takter’s team will draw wagering attention; too much, in fact. Wewould rather
look for a decent price from the Burke gal, Gatka Hanover. With post 8 she may
detract more bettors than the post should provoke. The Muscle Massive gal takes
after her dam, Girlie Tough, in name and metaphor.<br />
<br />
Colt trotters bring the 2015 Hambletonian to mind as we all look for a
contender able to keep up with Centurion Atm. That one’s trainer, Ake
Svanstedt, is in competition with himself as he sends Lima Pride to post here.
Stefan Lind’s Billy Flynn has yet to taste defeat and Shoot The Thrill has been
productive. Perhaps the 8 hole again holds the overlay card with Piercewave
Hanover. He could surprise the public but would be no surprise to us; he is
sound, well bred and has good credentials at two.<br />
<br />
Lastly we have the colt pacers. Burke’s barn has the money here with Yankee
Bounty, yet to lose in six tries. Our bargaining sense tells us Mcardles
Lightning may be overlooked. The Steve Elliot-trained colt is fast, a good
earner and the only son of Mcardle in the room. Tomy Terror and Dragon Eddy
should compromise by Burke’s biggie, as well as his price. <br />
<br /><b>
Sunday In Philly</b><br />
<br />
The PASS sophomore finals are the highlight on Sunday, Sept. 6 at Harrah’s
Philadelphia. They begin late in the program with the $260,000 filly trot.
Lifetime Pursuit is the hot horse and Designed To Be shows up to test her. All
this means is a big price on Take The Money for the upset.<br />
<br />
The colt pace offers star material as Mcwicked tries another wire job in a prep
for the Little Brown Jug. However, also prepping is the winless Limelight
Beach, zero for 11 but now in the Burke barn and ready to upset on his way to
the “Jug.”<br />
<br />
The colt trot stars Father Patrick again
and his recent upset to Datsyuk (in post 1 here) could bring his price up a
bit. It may be a bit too much, making Father Patrick a price we have not seen
since he began racing at two.<br />
<br />
Finally, the filly pace presents eight-for-eight Sandbetweenurtoes and she
still looks like the utter best and the lock of the card. <br />
<br /><b>
Hoosier Heroes</b><br />
<br />
Indiana Sires Stakes finals ensue at Hoosier Park on the Sept. 6 program. The
$75,000 contests are all for two-and three-year-olds. Frosh colt trotters have
10 in the hunt. Airman Batten will be the choice and rightfully so. In seven
tries he has six wins, with five-for-six Steal N Gas the closest in records.
But the Big Stick Lindy colt, Stickem Buck, cannot be dismissed and should be
the best price of the trio.<br />
<br />
On the frosh-filly trotting side there is a contentious affair. The earnings
are close and the records are similar. Golden Big Stick has been in every mix
thus far and may be the one ready to pop a fourth win for the season.<br />
<br />
In the frosh-filly pace we eliminate the four maidens and take a shot with the
10 horse, Blues Queen. The post may give her some price weight and in the mile
may not be a detriment at all. As for the frosh colt pacers, Toni’s Affection
should simply have this in the bag for a small payoff.<br />
<br />
Soph-filly trotters have to contend with the perfect Andi’s Alana, having eight
wins in as many starts on the Hoosier scene. The filly pacers, though tightly
matched, may offer value with Metro Shopping.<br />
<br />
Soph-colt trotters offer a shot for value from Double A Cash Hall, daringly
from post 8, while the glamour-boy pacers will continue to be dominated by the
all-powerful Always B Miki, who has scourged the Hoosier scene since his
rousing second in the Meadowlands Pace.<br />
<br />
H2W Legend<br />
<br />
Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are
possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are
listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The
race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front
of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last
time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the
horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer
to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than
one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your
judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires. <br />
<br /><b>
H2W </b><br />
<br />
Batavia<br />
9/5/14, Peter Pumpkineater R7; Studio City R9<br />
9/6/14, King William R3<br />
<br />
Freehold<br />
9/4/14, Nicetoseeya R2<br />
9/5/14, Bella’s Spunkin R3; Big Sky Angelina R5; Fancy Pants Sandy R9<br />
9/6/14, +Kings Legend R5; Mr Thomson R5; Moosehead Jack R6<br />
<br />
Hoosier<br />
9/5/14, Red Scooter R1; Light Up The Sky R3; Battle Gun R7; Matt The Bruiser
R7; Rocket Fuel R9; Allthatgltrsisgold R11; Star City Hero R14<br />
<br />
Maywood<br />
9/4/14, Jetting Around R2; Buttered Noodles ae R4<br />
9/5/14, +Impersonal R2; Delightful Dot R3; R Dunshine R4; Rip N Rock R8; Donald
Himself R12<br />
<br />
Meadows<br />
9/5/14, Incredible Dragon R10 <br />
<br />
Northfield—Ohio Sires Stakes<br />
9/5/14, Student Of Life R1; Dellou R2; Lofty Chip R5; Crown Time Keeper R6;
Honey B R8; Friskie Til Dawn R9; Emilene’s Future R11; Suite Feelin R12<br />
<br />
Ocean<br />
9/6/14, +Money Paige R6<br />
9/7/14, +Winmando R1<br />
<br />
Plainridge<br />
9/6/14, Painting The Town R2; +Somerset Minibob R4<br />
<br />
Philadelphia<br />
9/7/14, Gallie Bythe Beach R7<br />
<br />
Scioto<br />
9/4/14, +Whowhohoosier R2<br />
9/6/14, Pro Deuce R4; +Tempster Hanover R6; Can’tcutthatchip R12<br />
<br />
Tioga<br />
9/6/14, Flashbacks R6<br />
9/7/14, Goose Creek R1; Ten Yard Penalty R11<br />
<br />
Vernon<br />
9/4/14, +Canbec Jewell Sun R4<br />
9/5/14, Fleetwood Hall R1<br />
<br />
Yonkers<br />
9/6/14, Lawgiver Hanover R5; Big Jer R7<br />
9/8/14, Caviart Key R6; Montana Pablo A R6<br />
<br />
<i>Ray Cotolo contributes to each edition. <o:p></o:p></i></div>
Frank Cotolohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14553088072331342917noreply@blogger.com114tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-35676059094114220082014-08-31T18:29:00.000-07:002014-08-31T18:29:40.389-07:00Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUASY649NMqfy4yN11S7NnaibPmE3v-cob-YPRvWT-GPqL0cqv127AKOjJtAfgrBWnJMV4dhOlvgR0OV2Gnw3_jyHC2RjU2d2YzFyfJhJ4OdmXZwp4nDiJXTea4376r_bdTrrihfeHUJ4/s1600/pye9114.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUASY649NMqfy4yN11S7NnaibPmE3v-cob-YPRvWT-GPqL0cqv127AKOjJtAfgrBWnJMV4dhOlvgR0OV2Gnw3_jyHC2RjU2d2YzFyfJhJ4OdmXZwp4nDiJXTea4376r_bdTrrihfeHUJ4/s1600/pye9114.jpg" height="295" width="400" /></a></div>
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Mohawk shared this
weekend’s highlights with Vernon and featured some of the biggest names of the
season from divisions young to old. However predictable the outcomes turned
out, one surprise stuck out prominently on the Canadian menu. –Please note that
this review will not include the Monday, Sept. 1 Cane Pace at Tioga (we will
mention that in next week’s review). <br />
<br />
Make a note—and we will post this news on Thursday, Sept. 4—that the TwinSpires
harness blogs are moving to a new address—the official TwinSpires website,
hopefully by Sept. 4. As soon as the move has been established (we have to move
all of our tech furniture there) we will guide you to the page from this
residence and our personal pages on Twitter and Facebook.<br />
<br />
The <a href="http://countdownbcrown.blogspot.com/">Breeders Crown Countdown</a> blog
will stay at its current location and we will be linking to it for coverage of
races connected to “Crown” eligibles leading to the championship events in November.
Don’t miss one episode and look for archived race reviews at the <a href="http://www.hambletonian.org/">Hambletonian Society</a> site.<br />
<br />
We were on board for everyone’s choices on Aug. 29 at Vernon when Sebastian K
($2.30, $2.10, $2.10) took the Crawford Farms event; Father Patrick ($2.10
n/p/s) won the Zweig for colts; and Shake It Cerry ($2.40, $2.10, $2.10). won
by the Zweig for fillies.<br />
<br />
On Aug. 30 at Mohawk, more easily forecasted results ensued for the stakes
program, with Artspeak easily winning the Metro Pace (our two possible upset
candidates were off the board) and our choice, in league with the public, Jk
Shesalady ($2.90, $2.50, $2.10), won the She’s A Great Lady Final. The filly we
liked third in that race finished third and Shakai Hanover paid a shocking
$9.90 for that spot.<br />
<br />
Amid the clouds of chalk, though, came the latest episode of The Sweet Lou Show
and the dramatic twist in this week’s episode was unexpected by all. Finally
coming up short, a winded “Lou” was severely pressured in the stretch and faded
and 66-1 Modern Legend came from a usually beaten position (in other episodes
of the Lou show) to win pacing away. Foiled Again ($8.90, $12.70 ok) managed to
hold second. <br />
<br />
We heard from sources that Lou was “not himself” due to an alleged “bug” going
around the Burke barn. We could not confirm that as fact, though our source was
reputable. Modern Legend has raced consistently with the same horses and has
never gotten close to Lou but for passing tired ones and it seems that is what happened
in this race. Foiled Again, of course, is an in-and-out competitor that causes
no surprises when, after a few dull races, he wakes up to be a force in the
mix. But Modern Legend took advantage of a steaming pace (1:20.1 for Lou at
three-quarters) and a possibly ill super-horse. Time will testify to all of
this. <br />
<br />
TwinSpires and Hoosier continue a three-pronged power-packed program for
harness players. Tuesdays, wager all you want and earn 10 TSC Elite Points per
dollar bet. <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/10x-tuesdays-hoosier-park"><span style="color: windowtext;">Click here for details</span></a>. Every Thursday
night, there is a 20-percent bonus on hitting the Pick 4 starting at Race 3. <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/20-pick-4-bonus-thursday-nights-hoosier-park"><span style="color: windowtext;">Click here for details</span></a>. And the ongoing
10-percent Pick-4 bonus every racing night on Pick-4 hits continues through the
meet. <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/10-pick-4-bonus-every-night-hoosier-park"><span style="color: windowtext;">Click here for details</span></a>.<br />
<br />
In between published harness blogs, follow @FrankCotolo and @TwinSpires on
Twitter to get tips on Hoosier contenders you can use in your tickets. Other
possibilities appear in exclusive H2W list.<br />
<br /><b>
H2W RESULTS</b><br />
<br />
The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Also, exactas are included when a
H2W horse finishing first or second completes the result with a race favorite
or another H2W horse listed in the same race (an asterisk appears when both
horses were listed to complete the exacta). This week, there were 30 active
horses on the H2W list. <br />
<br />
Winners<br />
<br />
Lookingforadventure, $12, $6, $4.40, Scioto<br />
Upfront Billy Boy, $9.80, $4.80, $3, Meadows<br />
Red Star Fiona, $8.50, $3.30, $2.50, Batavia<br />
Toni’s Affection, $7.60, $4.60, $3, Hoosier<br />
Creatine, $3.60, $2.40, $2.10, Scioto<br />
Rockin Roxanne, $2.80, $2.80 ok, $2.40, Ocean<br />
<br />
Seconds<br />
<br />
Ge’s Alex, $7.60, $4.40, Ocean<br />
Good Win Earl, $5.90, $3.10 (Exacta $12.60), Saratoga<br />
Whowhohoosier, $4.20, $3, Scioto<br />
Golden Big Stick, $2.80, $2.40, Hoosier<br />
<br />
Thirds<br />
<br />
Impersonal, $4.20, Maywood<br />
Man He Can Scoot, $2.40, Yonkers<br />
Curly’s Son, n/s, Saratoga<br />
<br /><b>
News & Notes</b><br />
<br />
Colonial Downs looks ahead to its 17<sup>th</sup> season of pari-mutuel
harness racing, starting Sept.17 and continuing with a six-week fall campaign
thru Oct. 26. This is the only one-turn mile track in harness racing and it
offers handicappers and bettors great opportunities for all types of wagers.
The action will take place every Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday and Sunday at 1
p.m. The highlighted program of the
meet is the annual $350,000 (est.) Virginia Harness Day of Champions on closing
day, when Virginia-bred frosh and sophs of both sexes compete in eight
championship races.<br />
<br />
The Colonial Downs stable area opens Sept. 10 and training begins the following
morning. The first qualifying races are Saturday Sept. 13 at 1 p.m. and the
opening day draw will be held that morning. A total of eight late-closer stakes
series have also been announced and nominations are currently being accepted.
The slate of pacing only stakes includes the Horace Martin Memorial, VHHA and
the U Gotta Win One Now series events. Trotting only stakes include the
Parkers’ Memorial and the We Redeem Our Fallen Soldiers. The Good Ole USA,
Juniors and Delmarva series all feature separate pacing and trotting divisional
legs.<br />
<br />
I Luv The Nitelife, one of 2013’s Four Horses of the Apocalypse, has been
retired early in her attempt to return to the races at four after surgery.
Owners Richard and Joanne Young made the decision to retire “Nitelife,” a
daughter of Rocknroll Hanover. For her career, Nitelife won 17 of 27 races and
$1.94 million. No female pacer in harness racing history has won more money at
ages two and three. Trainer Chris Ryder said, “She will be impossible to
replace.”<br />
<br />
With two world records and multiple stakes under her belt, one of her losses stands
out to her co-owner as the race that shows her guts and determination. “Her
last race [at three] in the American-National,” Richard Young said, “She should
have lost by ten and just got beat. [It was] one of the most memorable races of
my life and more than likely the race that ended her career.”<br />
<br />
Trainer Ron Burke has two hot soph colts
that are not eligible to the Little Brown Jug. JK Endofanera could be
supplemented to the “Jug” but it will cost $45,000. Burke said it is not going
to happen. “The owners have no thought of going,” Burke told harnessracing.com.
His other colt, All Bets Off, doesn’t have a shot either. Burke said, “He's a
big horse and I don't know if he'd even get around [the half-mile track]” and
Burke isn’t ready to invest $45,000 for the chance to find out if he is wrong.
“I don't think he's going.” <br />
<br />
The Little Brown Jug conditions provide that if not eligible, the winner of the
North America Cup, Meadowlands Pace, Cane Pace and Messenger could be
supplemented. Driver Matt Kakaley, who drives All Bets Off, expressed
disappointment that his colt was being considered for the Jug. “I wish he was [Jug
eligible] as he gets around a half great,” said Kakaley, who disagrees with
Burke. “[All Bets Off] won the ‘Rooney’ at Yonkers this year and he did that
pretty handily.” The colt also won the Carl Milstein as our choice, at 7-1.<br />
<br />
With JK Endofanera and All Bets Off on the sidelines, that leaves Burke with At
Press Time and recent purchase Limelight Beach as Jug possibilities. Limelight
Beach, Burke said, can be competitive [in the Jug].” <br />
<br />
<b>Extraordinary Extras </b><br />
<br />
Indulge in many standardbred topics at my <i>Hoof Beats</i> blog titled <a href="http://www.hoofbeatsmagazine.com/cotolo.cfm"><span style="color: windowtext;">Vast
Performances</span></a>. <br />
<br />
<i>Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog <br />
<br />
Cartoons by Thom Pye ~ For more Thom Pye cartoon, informative harness history
and products, <a href="http://www.pyesite.com/">click here</a> ~<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></i></div>
Frank Cotolohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14553088072331342917noreply@blogger.com284tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-60176191731847792302014-08-27T20:55:00.000-07:002014-08-27T20:55:00.812-07:00August’s Curtain Falls With Crescendo On Labor Day Weekend <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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August harness racing is about to reach a peak in its finale
as the three-day weekend, which unofficially ends the summer season, arrives.
The Labor Day holiday does not include harness action around the continent,
with Canadian and American stakes events swarming through the daylight and
nighttime hours.<br />
<br />
No division is left un-raced, with an emphasis on the new candidates, as
freshman colt pacers are featured in the Metro Pace and frosh fillies in the
She’s A Great Lady finals at Mohawk. The divisions also contest lucrative
Champlain and Simcoe stakes and “The Sweet Lou Show,” for the older pacers, is
on the program, too—this week’s episode is titled the Canadian Pacing Derby
Final.<br />
<br />
Glamour boys and gals on the trotting side are featured at Vernon in “Zweig”
splits and on the pacing side there is Labor Day’s traditional Cane Pace and
those aren’t even all of the features. On the same program, Sebastian K takes
on his usual and some new challengers in the six-digit Crawford Farms mile.<br />
<br />
So load your TwinSpires account and charge your devices between meals, snacks
and relaxation while picking and choosing your moves. Our suggestions follow
here and on our
exclusive blog, this year’s <a href="http://countdownbcrown.blogspot.com/">Breeders
Crown Countdown</a>, now on line. We link to it from this main blog for
coverage of races through the rest of the season leading to the championship
events in November, in cooperation with the <a href="http://www.hambletonian.org/">Hambletonian Society</a> and <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/">TwinSpires</a>. <br />
<br />
Check out TwinSpires-Hoosier Park’s <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/10-pick-4-bonus-every-night-hoosier-park">10-percent
bonus</a> for hitting Pick 4s every night there is racing at the Indiana track.
And, of course, our horses-to-watch list (H2W) offers live contenders for win,
place, show and exotics from tracks across the continent. <br />
<br /><b>
The Metro Pace Final</b><br />
<br />
The $667,000 Metro Pace Final for frosh-colt pacers has been upset territory
over the years as well as some deserved public choices have taken the honors.
We know this because our win record for this race over the last decade has
included choosing both pay types.<br />
<br />
On Aug. 30, the obvious may rule in Artspeak, a first-season colt that races
like a veteran. As well, the streaking local, Go Daddy Go, who won the other
elim last week, is sharp, though his connections know he must improve here to
make a major impression. The contender with the most improvement who could
shake “Daddy” from an obvious place finish and, with the help of a speed duel,
create an upset shockwave, is Lone Survivor. <br />
<br />
Trapped and shuffled and returning late with resilience, “Survivor” was as
close to beating Daddy as Lyons Levi Lewis in the first elim. The two moves he
made may have equaled a win if things went differently but in the final,
chasing Artspeak will be the game and if the huge favorite is compromised at
all on top, Survivor may indeed be the lone survivor of the field. <br />
<br /><b>
She’s A Great Lady</b><br />
<br />
The $480,000 She’s A Great Lady Final at Mohawk on “Metro” night will feature a
sterling favorite and strong leader of this division in Jk Shesalady. Last
week’s elim-topper was immaculate and far better than the other two elim
winners’ efforts. She should romp again at odds that could eliminate show
betting; she is that strong. <br />
<br />
Solar Sister is an interesting exacta addition and should up the payoff. At
37-1 she had a far more stressful trip against “Jk” than place-finisher Divine
Caroline (public’s second choice). The other exactor and triactor companion
should be Shakai Hanover, a beaten favorite in her elim.<br />
<br /><b>
The Sweet Lou Show</b><br />
<br />
This week, Sweet Lou looks for his 11<sup>th</sup>-straight win against the
toughest, albeit the same, group of older pacers that have followed him in his
10-race win skein as he leads the cast of the $634,000 Canadian Pacing Derby
(CPD) on Aug. 30 at Mohawk. Missing this week is Captaintreacherous, whose
connections scratched him from the CPD elim due to illness. <br />
<br />
”Lou” has major foes in Bettors Edge and Foiled Again, both in this field, but
only an unpredictable circumstance would find Lou behind them at the wire. All
the others are rungs below Lou, including some of the local favorites that fans
have been insisting can beat him. This, however, is not a hockey game, it’s the
Sweet Lou Show and he is the best exotic key to come along in a long time. Stay
with the program and use the two foes mentioned in criss-crosses for trifectas
and in separate exactas, especially if the locals lean on any others. <br />
<br />
Grand Circuit events at Mohawk for Friday and Satruday, for two-and
three-year-olds, the Champlains and Simcoes, are covered this week at the <a href="http://countdownbcrown.blogspot.com/">Breeders Crown Countdown</a> blog.<br />
<br /><b>
Zig-‘Zwieg’-Zag</b><br />
<br />
The colts for the $340,000 Zweig Memorial on Friday, Aug. 29 at Vernon
Downs, are familiar and talented and,
for all due purposes, still led by the best—Father Patrick. Unless he scratches
between our press time and Aug. 29 for health reasons that help explain his
post-Hambletonian loss, there is still no one in this cast, including his
stable mate Nuncio, that are better than him on their best day.<br />
<br />
If his two successive losses cause his win-price offerings to increase, then
there is no question he is the key for exotics as well as a win bet (it has
been a while since being able to play him straight at prohibitive win odds. A
good addition in combo tickets is Martiniwithmuscle. When on gait, this one
knows how to float and is getting better as he and the season become older. <br />
<br />
The $150,000 filly division of the Zweig is a bad race to give up on Shake It
Cerry. Even if you feel Lifetime Pursuit has overcome her, that one is absent
here and “Cerry” wins this by default. There may be some chances taken on
members of this field by bettors but let’s face it, Cerry is tons better than
these, including Heaven’s Door, who loomed more of a formidable foe last month
than she does now. What we hope is that Broadway Socks, Avalicious and “Door”
are the smokescreen that gives us another surprise price on the filly that
continues to keep on giving to the bettor when it counts. You go girl. <br />
<br /><b>
Oh ‘K’</b><br />
<br />
Friday, Aug. 29 at Vernon Downs on the night of the Zweigs, the $236,000
Crawford Farms Open, matches super Sebastian K against Bee A Magician, Market
Share, Mister Herbie, Archangel and five others.<br />
<br />
The speedy Swedish Horse of the Year and top-rated horse in the sport this
season, Sebastian K may actually offer a better, albeit low, price to win
considering New York champ Archangel is here and loyalty is often measured in
wagers. But Sebastian is all around better at racing, at least right now, and
he has it all over the local and the mare, Bee A Magician. Hope for a price
breaking $3 on Sebastian is slim but, as the saying goes, men have been killed
for less/<br />
<br /><b>
The Cane Pace</b><br />
<br />
With two colts coming into the race per $35,000 supplemental fees, there are
eight entries in the 2014 Cane Pace field on Sept. 1 at Tioga. For years this
was a special event, it being the first jewel in the Pacing Triple Crown (a
series with more than three events when you add eliminations). Although there
is still a “crown” for winning it, the Little Brown Jug and the Messenger
Stakes, there is little for any bettor to be concerned about along the way.
Sadly, even the press value of the series has died.<br />
<br />
However, alive and racing are some of the top soph-colt pacers of the season,
including the industry’s anointed Hes Watching. The fast but opportunistic Hes
Watching is one of three supplements. He meets major foe Jk Endofanera, the
competitive Doo Wop Hanover, improving Lyonssomewhere (supplement),
Stevensville (his first nemesis of the season), Luck Be Withyou (supplement),
Bushwacker and Beat The Drum.<br />
<br />
This could very well wind up to be like the North America Cup in a few ways
which give Jk Endofanera an edge. The early-speed factor weighs heavily in this
mile and Hes Watching may be over-confident after his recent efforts and ready
to play his speed card. That will be his Waterloo, since Lyonssomewhere has the
natural ability to fire early (though he has the burden of being short late).
In the first-quarter you may also see Stevensville hustling for a front spot,
as well as Beat The Drum will have a fancy to be up there. <br />
<br />
The grinding colts with more than a few chances to take advantage of the speed
scenario are Doo Wop Hanover and Jk Endofanera, the latter who did just that at
12-1 in the “Cup” with a similar configuration and some of the same horses. As
well, “Jk” has once again fallen out of favor to Hes Watching and that is
always good for his odds, making them far less than his chances. “Doo Wop”
could be a perfect closing companion to complete a surprisingly healthy exacta.
<br />
<br />
H2W Legend<br />
<br />
Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are
possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are
listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The
race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front
of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last
time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the
horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer
to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than
one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your
judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires. <br />
<br /><b>
H2W </b><br />
<br />
Batavia<br />
8/29/14, +Red Star Fiona R1 <br />
8/30/14, +Pleasing Form R4; +Aberarder Smitty R6; Bruisers Sister R8<br />
<br />
Freehold<br />
8/30/14, Kings Legend R8<br />
<br />
Hoosier<br />
8/28/14, +Toni’s Affection R12<br />
8/29/14, +Golden Big Stick R12 <br />
<br />
Maywood<br />
8/28/14, Impersonal R1; +Online Learning ae R5<br />
<br />
Meadows<br />
8/29/14, +Upfront Billy Boy R5; Tuckered Out R7; <br />
<br />
Ocean<br />
8/28/14, Rockin Roxanne R4<br />
8/29/14, +Ge’s Alex R2; +Truly My Way R4; Money Paige R10<br />
<br />
Pocono<br />
8/29/14, Clearview Hanover R6; Lady Alice R13<br />
8/30/14, Smilin Eli R11<br />
<br />
Philadelphia<br />
8/28/14, Senor Grande ae R3<br />
8/31/14, +Bobs Girl R14<br />
<br />
Saratoga<br />
8/28/14, +Curly’s Son R3; +Crazy Wow R9 <br />
8/30/14, Good Win Earl R2; +Bo’s So Hot R11
<br />
<br />
Scarborough<br />
8/22/14, Creditable Winner R2; Hobsons Choice R6<br />
<br />
Scioto<br />
8/28/14, Docs Zippy R6; Whowhohoosier R12<br />
8/29/14, Creatine R5<br />
8/30/14, Tempster Hanover R3;
+Lookingforadventure R11<br />
<br />
Yonkers<br />
8/29/14, +Sweet Justice R8<br />
8/30/14, +Man He Can Scoot R2; +Bubble Boy R3; +Heston Blue Chip R6; Big Jer ae
R10<br />
<br />
<i>Ray Cotolo contributes to each edition. <o:p></o:p></i></div>
Frank Cotolohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14553088072331342917noreply@blogger.com135tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-17267898049724404342014-08-27T12:20:00.000-07:002014-08-27T12:20:16.790-07:00TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 08/27 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
TwinSpires' Derek Simon recaps the Travers Stakes and the
Pacific Classic and discusses the role of a jockey in the “I Need to Know”
segment.<br />
<br />
In a special “Racing History” segment, all-time greats Round Table, Ribot, John
Henry, Sea Bird II, Phar Lap and others face each other in a mythical running
of the Breeders’ Cup Turf presented by <a href="http://brisnet.com/">Brisnet.com</a>
and called by track announcer/TV personality Mike Battaglia.</div>
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="370" src="http://player.cinchcast.com/?platformId=1&assetType=single&assetId=6734625" width="400"></iframe><br />
<div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: center; width: 400px;">
<br />
</div>
<a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/twinspires/2014/08/27/twinspires-horse-racing-podcast-wderek-simon#.U_4t6gl4V8Q.blogger">TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 08/27 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts</a>Derek Simonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17033757422117269120noreply@blogger.com81tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-20964852613534376212014-08-24T18:21:00.000-07:002014-08-24T18:21:30.939-07:00Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAuU1MQEkJ6MgaWLm2yBICmpLCxxlj0EQn73pkg9MeRk1nPzuookyzy_1VMU3sRifZKjqzNz66fjOvF15PXqQ2QrvJ6Af6S_r7HvzrTuctnvXE53KX-vucWitBlYjWMgMNasYZvnvg10g/s1600/pye.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAuU1MQEkJ6MgaWLm2yBICmpLCxxlj0EQn73pkg9MeRk1nPzuookyzy_1VMU3sRifZKjqzNz66fjOvF15PXqQ2QrvJ6Af6S_r7HvzrTuctnvXE53KX-vucWitBlYjWMgMNasYZvnvg10g/s1600/pye.jpg" height="400" width="398" /></a></div>
<div style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 10.9pt;">
With all of the stakes action focused at
Mohawk this weekend, we found some fair prices on some obvious contenders that
won. Next Saturday’s Mohawk program will present the lucrative finals to the
elim events of the past weekend as we see more racing than usual during the
U.S. Labor Day holiday weekend.<br />
<br />
In the Casual Breeze splits on Aug. 22 at Mohawk we were in tune with everyone
in one elim with Lifetime Pursuit ($2.90, $2.10, $2.10 ok) and off the board
with My Inspiration at 7-1. <br />
<br />
Aug. 23’s winners were topped by Go Daddy Go ($6, $3.10, $2.50) who offered a
generous win price as a second choice in one of two Metro Pace elim splits. We
tried to beat the huge favorite, Artspeak, but could not.<br />
<br />
Sweet Lou ($2.30, $2.10 n/s) easily won his 10<sup>th</sup>-straight race in a
Canadian Pacing Derby elim for all of us. In the second split, our choice
scratched (see News and Notes below). <br />
<br />
Again, the best we could do in the She’s A Great Lady trio of elims was the
obvious Jk Shesalady ($2.40, $2.10, $2.10 ok), with our other two choices at
8-1 and 61-1 quite out of the mixes.<br />
<br />
A fascinating note of cashing on our contenders appears in our horses-to-watch
list (H2W). The highest paying winner of the week was at Yonkers; we were following
Insane In Spain on Friday night. He went off at 23-1 and shared the win with a
huge favorite in a dead heat. The win prices were obviously compromised by the
dual victory and instead of paying $48 to win, Insane In Spain paid 9-2 to win
and more to place. We did, of course, win both exactas (using the favorite, as
we suggest with our H2W choices).<br />
<br />
We continue this year’s <a href="http://countdownbcrown.blogspot.com/">Breeders
Crown Countdown</a> blog in our weekly TwinSpires harness previews, linking to
it for coverage of races through the rest of the season leading to the
championship events in November. Don’t miss one episode and look for archived
race reviews at the <a href="http://www.hambletonian.org/">Hambletonian Society</a>
site.<br />
<br />
TwinSpires and Hoosier continue a three-pronged power-packed program for
harness players. Tuesdays, wager all you want and earn 10 TSC Elite Points per
dollar bet. <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/10x-tuesdays-hoosier-park"><span style="color: windowtext;">Click here for details</span></a>. Every Thursday
night, there is a 20-percent bonus on hitting the Pick 4 starting at Race 3. <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/20-pick-4-bonus-thursday-nights-hoosier-park"><span style="color: windowtext;">Click here for details</span></a>. And the ongoing
10-percent Pick-4 bonus every racing night on Pick-4 hits continues through the
meet. <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/10-pick-4-bonus-every-night-hoosier-park"><span style="color: windowtext;">Click here for details</span></a>.<br />
<br />
In between published harness blogs, follow @FrankCotolo and @TwinSpires on
Twitter to get tips on Hoosier contenders you can use in your tickets. Other
possibilities appear in exclusive H2W list.<br />
<br /><b>
H2W RESULTS</b><br />
<br />
The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Also, exactas are included when a
H2W horse finishing first or second completes the result with a race favorite
or another H2W horse listed in the same race (an asterisk appears when both
horses were listed to complete the exacta). This week, there were 30 active
horses on the H2W list. <br />
<br />
Winners<br />
<br />
Insane In Spain, $11, $17.20 ok, $4.30 (Dead-Heat Exactas, $42.60, $8.40)<br />
Art For Arts Sake, $6.60, $3.60, $2.80, Pocono<br />
Rules Little Man, $4.40, $3.40, $2.80, Ocean<br />
<br />
Seconds<br />
<br />
Bridges Beauty, $14.80, $9, Hoosier<br />
Spirit Of Desire, $8, $3 (Exacta $29), Pocono<br />
Whitesville Ted, $5.80, $3.80, Ocean<br />
<br />
Thirds<br />
<br />
Hobsons Choice, $6, Scarborough<br />
Scorpius, $3.90, Batavia<br />
Upfront Billy Boy, $3.40, Meadows<br />
Red Star Fiona, $2.80, Batavia<br />
Wilfully Scootereva, $2.80, Maywood<br />
<br /><b>
News & Notes</b><br />
<br />
Captaintreacherous
was scratched from a Canadian Pacing Derby elimination, according to trainer
Tony Alagna, due to sickness. “We ran a scope down him because he was off his
feed and he had a lot of mucus,” said Alagna. “He is fighting off an infection
and we just didn’t think it was in his best interest to race him if he’s not a
hundred per cent.” Alagna said it’s disappointing to have to pull out of the
race, as the pacer is undefeated is six starts at Mohawk, “but we don’t want to
compromise the rest of the year or the horse if he isn’t a hundred per cent.”<br />
<br />
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">Three Ontario-owned three-year-old pacing colts have paid
$35,000 supplements to race in the Cane Pace at Tioga Downs on Sept. 1.</span> With them
there are only eight colts entered so eliminations will not be required. We
will analyze the $437,325 final along with other Labor Day weekend features in our
Thursday blog.<br />
<br />
Another great pacer has passed away. Life Sign, the 1993 Little Brown Jug
winner and Hall of Fame member, died in Australia, on Aug.14, at the age of 24.
A son of the incomparable Abercrombie and world champion filly Three Diamonds,
Life Sign raced only at a two and three, amassing $1.9 million from 18 wins, 10
seconds and five thirds in 35 starts. Besides his record-breaking “Jug”
success, most memorable for the outside trip on the half-mile in Ohio, he won
the three-year-old Breeders Crown, Art Rooney, Governor’s Cup and others. At
the stud Life Sign left the winners of more than $113 million in stakes in
North America, placing him among the top-10 money-winning sires at his gait.
While in Australia his stock earned $12.4 million and in New Zealand they
amassed almost $2 million.<br />
<br />
There is still no word if Father Patrick will race in the “Zweig” at Tioga on
Labor Day weekend. The once-immaculate gait of Father Patrick was compromised
when he broke at the beginning of the Hambletonian and galloped all the way
around. Then he showed up for a Tompkins-Geers and finished second to Datsyuk,
just another in the division that could not get to “Patrick” all season. The
race was reported as having an “uneventful” start, though Patrick went wide for
a spell to take the lead. But he has never been “short,” and struggled to
dismiss a challenge late even with difficult starts. All of his is leaving
questions about his health and immediate racing plans and unless the Jimmy
Takter team releases some information about a problem or Patrick is not
scratched from the Zweig, we can only suspect something is amiss. <br />
<br />
Our continuing look at drivers streaking on programs brings us this week to
Aaron Byron, who races at Tioga Downs. On Aug. 22 he won five of his 10 drives
and that 50-percent win rate for him translated into profits for those
following him with win bets. Wagering solely on the fact that Aaron was
driving, it cost a bettor $20 for the evening. Aaron’s winners returned $54.20,
a profit of $34.20.<br />
<br />
<b>Extraordinary Extras </b><br />
<br />
Indulge in many standardbred topics at my <i>Hoof Beats</i> blog titled <a href="http://www.hoofbeatsmagazine.com/cotolo.cfm"><span style="color: windowtext;">Vast
Performances</span></a>. <br />
<br />
<i>Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog <br />
<br />
Cartoons by Thom Pye ~ For more Thom Pye cartoon, informative harness history
and products, <a href="http://www.pyesite.com/">click here</a> ~<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
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Frank Cotolohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14553088072331342917noreply@blogger.com240tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-31895303596302858452014-08-21T10:43:00.000-07:002014-08-21T10:44:39.235-07:00TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 08/21 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #444444;">TwinSpires' Derek Simon discusses a <a href="http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/pool-manipulation-suspicious-betting-spotted-in-thistledown-race/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Paulick Report piece</a> on potential pool manipulation at Thistledown (say that three times fast) and opines on how to determine and capitalize on efficient and inefficient pari-mutuel markets.</span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #444444;">Lastly, in the handicapping segment, he breaks down Friday's Personal Ensign and Saturday's Travers Stakes at Saratoga Race Course. </span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #444444;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="370" src="http://player.cinchcast.com/?platformId=1&assetType=single&assetId=6708061" width="400"></iframe></span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; width: 400px;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;">New Sports Internet Radio with <a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/twinspires" rel="nofollow">TwinSpires Radio</a> on BlogTalkRadio</span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #444444;"><a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/twinspires/2014/08/21/twinspires-horse-racing-podcast-wderek-simon#.U_Yu2CiT1u0.blogger">TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 08/21 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts</a></span></span></span></div>
Derek Simonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17033757422117269120noreply@blogger.com655tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-12844047096406171592014-08-21T08:20:00.000-07:002014-08-21T08:23:30.777-07:00Beating an Efficient Market<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Despite what various racetrack touts and system peddlers
say, one of the things that makes consistently beating the races so tough is
that, for the most part, pari-mutuel betting markets are efficient. This means
that all the relevant and available information affecting the outcome of a
horse race is generally known and accounted for. Hence, the final odds are an
accurate reflection of a horse’s chances of winning — minus the track take and
breakage, of course.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Sure, there are pockets of inefficiency and irrationalism.
Scholars have long documented the existence of a “<a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w15923.pdf">favorite-longshot bias</a>,”
whereby shorter-priced horses are slightly underbet and longer-priced horses
slightly overbet. However, such inefficiencies are but ripples on the
pari-mutuel ocean.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Still, the fact that inefficiencies <i>can</i> and <i>do</i> exist provides
hope that the races can be beaten — just like grainy, out-of-focus video footage
provides hope to some that bigfoot lives among us (often disguised as a broken
tree branch).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">In this article, I will attempt to show readers how they
can spot and capitalize on inefficient markets — as well as efficient markets —
to make more moolah at the racetrack.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444; font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Follow the Money</b> </span></span><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/vETxuL7Ij3Q?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
<br />
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Not to go all “Deep Throat” on everybody, but the
simplest way to spot an efficient or inefficient market is to follow the money.
Consider the following scenario: </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">John Doe is given $2 to bet to win on any horse running at Saratoga on
Saturday. </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">* How does he choose <u>what race</u> to bet?</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">* How does he choose <u>which horse</u> to bet? </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Well, assuming Mr. Doe is logical, one would expect him
to play the race and horse that (he believes) give him the best chance of
winning. However, even if Doe possessed the superior handicapping acumen of a <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-monkey-can-beat-the-market/">dart-throwing
monkey</a> or one of those omnipotent racetrack touts mentioned earlier, it is
clear that any market comprised solely of his wager would <i>have</i> to be inefficient. For, even if we ignored the fact that Doe’s
horse would be 1-9, we are stuck with the unfortunate detail that all the other
horses in the field — those that didn’t receive any of Doe’s dough — would be
lumped together at 99-1. </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Obviously, this is not an accurate assessment of each
horse’s chances. </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Thus, even though this was an extreme example, it should
be self-evident that less money and fewer wagers equal a less efficient market.
Might the opposite also be true? Does more money and more wagers lead to a more
efficient market?</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I decided to find out. </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">To provide a baseline, I first looked at all sole betting
favorites (no favored entries) from a variety of races run across the fruited
plain from September to December of 2013:</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Number – 7,996</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Winners – 2,904</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Win Rate – 36.3%</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">$2 Net – $1.67</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">IV – <b>2.80</b></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">OBIV – <b>0.84</b></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Next, I analyzed favorites in races with the lowest
straight (win, place and show) handle on the card (provided the total pool was
less than $10,000). As expected, the numbers took a nosedive, giving credence
to my hypothesis that less betting/money results in a less efficient market:</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Number – 185</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Winners – 61</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Win Rate – 33.0%</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">$2 Net – $1.50</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">IV – <b>2.11</b></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">OBIV – <span style="color: red;"><b>0.75</b></span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Lastly, I looked at races with the <i>greatest</i> straight handle on the card (provided the total pool exceeded
$10,000). Not surprisingly (at least to me), the figures were fantastic:</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Number – 830</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Winners – 320</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Win Rate – 38.6%</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">$2 Net – $1.73</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">IV – <b>3.35</b></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">OBIV – <span style="color: #38761d;"><b>0.89</b></span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">In races featuring above-average betting action,
favorites won 38.6 percent of the time, lost just 13 cents per dollar wagered
(compared to 16 cents for favorites overall) and had an impact value (IV) of
3.35 (versus 2.80 for favorites on the whole).</span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>The Efficient Data Hypothesis</b></span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Now, I know what some of you are thinking: big deal,
Derek, your “fantastic figures” still produced a loss of 13 percent. What good
does it do to identify efficient and/or inefficient pari-mutuel markets if one
still loses one’s shirt?</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Keep your chin up, Daniel-san. It’s not so much what the
stats tell us about these specific instances, it’s what they imply about
handicapping in general. Let’s go back to the definition of market efficiency: <i>all the relevant and available information
affecting the outcome of a horse race is generally known and accounted for</i>.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">To me, this suggests that “all the relevant and available
information affecting the outcome of a horse race” may be overvalued or
undervalued in races attracting more or less wagering dollars, respectively. In
other words, rather than patterning one’s handicapping around specific race
conditions — placing extra value on workouts in two-year-old races, stressing
class in turf races, etc. — a player might be better served by using the
straight wagering pools to emphasize or de-emphasize traditional factors.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Take speed figures, for example. Using the database of
races above, I compiled the following stats on horses possessing the best
last-race Brisnet speed figure over today’s general track surface (AW/dirt or
turf):</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Number – 6,353</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Winners – 1,835</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Win Rate – 28.9%</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">$2 Net – <b>$1.74</b></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Nothing to get the pulse racing, right? Well, if you’re
standing up, grab a chair (you’ll want to be sitting) and look at what happens
when the digits above are parsed based on the size of the win, place and show
pools:</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">STRAIGHT MUTUEL
POOLS GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO $25K</span></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Number – 4,299</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Winners – 1,209</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Win Rate – 28.1%</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">$2 Net – <b>$1.70 </b></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">STRAIGHT MUTUEL POOLS LESS THAN $25K</span></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Number – 2,054</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Winners – 626</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Win Rate – 30.5%</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">$2 Net – <b>$1.83</b></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">In races with less than $25,000 in the win, place and
show pools, the horse(s) with the top last-race speed figure produced a loss of
just eight cents on the dollar — nearly half the loss produced in races with higher
pool totals.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Get the point? By gauging the relative efficiency of the
market one is betting into — be it the first race at Arapahoe Park or the
feature race at Del Mar — my research suggests that well-known predictive
factors like speed and class can be upgraded or downgraded accordingly.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">And that, my friends, is what good handicapping is all
about.</span></span></span><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAAz9kYs8PKFobAlE2yRCxsKLUe3Oa8uwtVj-wiQOE3SW4zF8_7KJ55TLeO8eUOgFPLZqGBdJzjFIKBjJrS2Fg-sg_hGGP6E144lWBjHTl8vZ0i-eznBw3sH8X3viyQryzdXEPZlAM9g2z/s1600/OBIV+Key.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAAz9kYs8PKFobAlE2yRCxsKLUe3Oa8uwtVj-wiQOE3SW4zF8_7KJ55TLeO8eUOgFPLZqGBdJzjFIKBjJrS2Fg-sg_hGGP6E144lWBjHTl8vZ0i-eznBw3sH8X3viyQryzdXEPZlAM9g2z/s1600/OBIV+Key.jpg" /></a></div>
</div>
Derek Simonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17033757422117269120noreply@blogger.com217tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-46513352136317466602014-08-20T21:03:00.000-07:002014-08-20T21:03:36.258-07:00Mohawk’s stampede of stakes elims take the forefront <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisPyZL5lcyAJptoOdAohT9JsXyxuDpTkOqePEPDDg4MhWnFJYs5eQlRNKjz8lST3BNCTHs0ZBbtviuIjzBbp_gQQwa2NAxz01I1Or72cxEEiKuQV_xljQHmT6emLF4c_VG52NFziZhtP8/s1600/chi-harness.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisPyZL5lcyAJptoOdAohT9JsXyxuDpTkOqePEPDDg4MhWnFJYs5eQlRNKjz8lST3BNCTHs0ZBbtviuIjzBbp_gQQwa2NAxz01I1Or72cxEEiKuQV_xljQHmT6emLF4c_VG52NFziZhtP8/s1600/chi-harness.jpg" height="225" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Although some other divisions hosting stakes this weekend,
the focus for the industry will be upon two-year-olds battling for berths in
the lucrative Metro Pace for pacing colts and She’s A Great Lady for pacing
fillies at Mohawk, along with elims for soph-filly trotters with two Casual
Breeze splits on Aug. 22, while on Saturday the program includes two Metro
elims, three elims for the She’s A Great Lady stakes (a Metro for the glamour
gals) and two elims for the older pacers’ Canadian Pacing Derby.<br />
<br />
Our
exclusive blog, this year’s <a href="http://countdownbcrown.blogspot.com/">Breeders
Crown Countdown</a>, is now on line. We link to it from this main blog for
coverage of races through the rest of the season leading to the championship
events in November, in cooperation with the <a href="http://www.hambletonian.org/">Hambletonian Society</a> and <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/">TwinSpires</a>. <br />
<br />
Check out TwinSpires-Hoosier Park’s <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/10-pick-4-bonus-every-night-hoosier-park">10-percent
bonus</a> for hitting Pick 4s every night there is racing at the Indiana track.
And, of course, our horses-to-watch list (H2W) offers live contenders for win,
place, show and exotics from tracks across the continent. <br />
<br /><b>
Ladies Of The Trot</b><br />
<br />
The $202,529 Casual Breeze, once contested in June to work as a prep for the
now defunct Elegant Image trot, attracts the sport’s top soph-filly trotters in
a two-split contest on the Friday, Aug. 22 card at Mohawk. <br />
<br />
One division of the total 18 fillies has a field with all the top fillies,
while the other contains the second-tier competition. The opening division is
the second-tier showdown, featuring the dead-heat winners of the Duenna, contested
Hambletonian weekend, My Inspiration and Donatella Hanover. The Canadians also
have a hometown favorite in White Becomes Her, making this an interesting
wagering affair. <br />
<br />
White Becomes Her, because of her experience over this oval, is the horse to beat.
She’s a front-trotting type but in her last two starts she has been caught by
fillies who draft in the pocket. Seeing as that is her only visible weakness,
the logical choice in this race would be a front-type who prefers to stalk the
pace. Enter My Inspiration. <br />
<br />
The Trond Smedshammer filly has hit the board in six of her seven starts in her
career, with every race having her positioned near the front. This Chocolatier
filly has really improved into her sophomore year and should be sharpening with
every mile. She’ll be in the right place to sweep by White Becomes Her and give
us a nice price. <br />
<br />
Ever since trainer Jimmy Takter fit the shoes on Lifetime Pursuit, she has been
unstoppable. A perfect trip in the Hambletonian Oaks made her an undeniable
winner, then she follows her 1:50.4 world mark with another world record, this
one of 1:51.3 at the Meadows, putting her in the same club as fillies Check Me
Out and Designed To Be, who will compete for redemption against Lifetime
Pursuit. <br />
<br />
All in all, there’s no point in trying to beat the best filly in the division.
We certainly liked her at two, even though we never cashed on her. But she is
currently at the peak of her form, which evidently is unstoppable. </div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /><b>
The ‘Metro’ Gang</b><br />
<br />
It’s time for two-year-old colt pacers to face the big-buck challenge as the
Metro Pace elims decide the field for the biggest frosh event of the season.
Next week at Mohawk The Metro Pace Final puts the pressure on the top frosh
colt pacers, with the top three finishers carrying the weight of early
favoritism for 2015 stakes for glamour boys. Two Metro elims, each worth
$40,000, are on the program Aug. 23 at Mohawk. <br />
<br />
In round one, some of the top sires of the season present sons and the surprise
Sportswriter colt, Sports Bettor, who debuted last week against the Grand
Circuit types and won at 69-1, will get more action than that this time around.
What he probably won’t get, though, is the trip that afforded him the path late
to win that Nassagaweya split. Here, he has to contend with three colts that
weren’t in that affair and a few that lost to him also look like trouble.<br />
<br />
First there’s To Daddy Go, the Bob McIntosh son of Ponder that won the
“Waterloo” on Grand River’s smaller track and came right back on the big oval
to lose by a smidgeon after a tough first panel. He may wallow through this
mile and be worth a low price. Look out, however, for Asap Hanover, who may be
offering a greater price than last week. He was the favorite when Sports Bettor
exploded the tote board and he is out for revenge after an awful trip.<br />
<br />
Four wins in four starts with no challengers will make Artspeak the humungous
choice in round two. There is little doubt that Artspeak will be winging out of
the gate to take the top and attempt a total command of the mile. That attempt
may give The Wayfaring Man two easy turns, sucking along in the catbird seat
and raring to give Artspeak a late taste of losing. That is the best scenario
for a price, assuming “Man” will offer a far-and-away decent price as the
second or, hopefully, third choice.<br />
<br /><b>
Great Ladies </b><br />
<br />
There are frosh-pacing fillies everywhere, demanding three eliminations for the
She’s A Great Lady at Mohawk on Aug. 23. A total of 25 fillies have entered but
only 10 will compete for the near-half-a-million dollar prize. <br />
<br />
An interesting detail to watch in these races is if the gals who competed in
the Eternal Camnation last week have any sort of advantage. Seeing as 15 of the
25 entered for this race competed in the “Camnations,” it might make for a good
betting angle. <br />
<br />
The opening split features one winner of a Camnation, Shakai Hanover, and other
Camnation-gals including The Show Returns, Bedroomconfessions, Strut My Stuff
and Palette Tina. The public will likely piggy-back Bedroomconfessions, even
though she was second, off her strong performance in the opening Camnation
split. We’ll take our chances with another Camnation-ist, one who was certainly
fast, but was disqualified off an odd pylon violation. <br />
<br />
Palette Tina appeared green out of the gate in her division, sprinting to the
quarter in :27.3 to then sit a pocket and gamely slide up the inside to finish
second. Unfortunately, she was also green when veering to the inside lane, as
she had a wheel inside two pylons, forcing her disqualification. We see her improving
with maturity, as she has always been a weird filly, especially in her second
start, when she kicked home in :25.4. <br />
<br />
First, the Johansson stable produced a talented youngster named Western
Vintage, who went on to win his Metro elim but failed to hold off Boomboom
Ballykeel in the final. Johansson returns with a filly that put in a phenomenal
performance in the second division of the Camnation, Jk Shesalady. <br />
<br />
On a night where speed was dominant, she came from 9 lengths off the lead and
entered another gear to begin sprinting her way towards the lead. She cleared
command at the top of the stretch and continued to draw away, winning in
1:53.4. Here is a special filly, and likely the one to dominate this division.
There’s no beating her, at least in this elimination. <br />
<br />
The final elim features Happy Becky, winner of the Whenuwishuponastar Series
and the favorite in her Camnation split last week. She sprinted to try and
catch Bedroomconfessions and Shakai Hanover but had too much ground to cover.
While the majority will be flying back to support her, we’ll join the minority
in a nice filly that was caught behind Jk Shesalady in her Camnation elim: Bin
N Heaven. <br />
<br />
Firstly, Bin N Heaven was fourth to Jk Shesalady, Cowgirl Tough and Cashaway,
none of which are here. Secondly, she sat the pocket to Wicked Little Minx, who
went from first to eighth by 29 lengths within a quarter-of-a-mile. Having to
navigate around her, it’s ridiculous to think she could catch Jk Shesalady, so
her fourth-place effort is positive. She’ll likely be put towards the front
again, except on this occasion, she could claim victory. <br />
<br /><b>
Sweet Lou Time</b><br />
<br />
It’s Sweet Lou time again, this episode being the first of two $40,000 elims of
the Canadian Pacing Derby, also on the Mohawk card Aug. 23. Really, how can we
create a scenario to wager against him? He seems tireless and makes all of his
foes look powerless. Maybe if we found out trainer Ron Burke made “Lou” walk to
Canada from the states we could take a deeper look at the same old joes he has
been beating throughout the season. <br />
<br />
The second elim gives six who have been in the line of Lou’s fire different
chances to get into the winner’s circle. The closest to Lou recently has been
Bettors Edge, who comes from post 2 here and may try to lead the charge from
start to finish. But we have to look again at a bargain—Captaintreacherous. <br />
<br />
The local fans will be shouting for State Treasurer, who got a good spot to be
second to Lou two back. But he isn’t the horse Captaintreacherous is in any
capacity, no less the kind of horse Captaintreacherous is becoming as he knocks
around the neighborhood of stalwart elders. There is a contingent of
anti-Captaintreacherous folk here and they will be backing “State” and Thinking
Out Loud while singing “Oh Canada.” This should make for a juicy win pool for
Captaintreacherous, even with only six going here. A strong cover trip or a
seat behind Bettors Edge if that one leaves could get the “Captain” home on
top.<br />
<br /><i>
H2W Legend</i><br />
<br />
Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are
possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are
listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The
race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front
of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last
time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the
horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer
to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than
one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your
judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires. <br />
<br /><b>
H2W </b><br />
<br />
Batavia<br />
8/22/14, Red Star Fiona R1; Canbec Jewell Sun R1; +Scorpius R11; Pleasing Form
R11 <br />
8/23/14, +Blown Away ae R2; Sbm Innocentoutlaw R4; Aberarder Smitty R11<br />
<br />
Hoosier<br />
8/21/14, Earls Little Dude R10; Bridges Beauty R14 <br />
<br />
Maywood<br />
8/21/14, Breanna Official ae R2; Just A Minute ae R2; +Wilfully Scootereva R7;
Online Learning R8<br />
<br />
Meadows<br />
8/22/14, Tuckered Out ae R5; Bluenose Gal R12; Upfront Billy Boy R12<br />
<br />
Ocean<br />
8/21/14, +Whitesville Ted R2<br />
8/22/14, Rules Little Man R3<br />
<br />
Pocono<br />
8/22/14, Annuity R4; +Spirit Of Desire R8; Art For Arts Sake R13<br />
<br />
Running Aces<br />
8/23/14, Windsun T Bird R7; +Co-op Hanover R8<br />
<br />
Saratoga<br />
8/23/14, +Duel In The Sun R11; Bo’s So Hot R12; Titan De Vie R12<br />
<br />
Scarborough<br />
8/22/14, Creditable Winner R2; Hobsons Choice R6<br />
<br />
Scioto<br />
8/21/14, Whowhohoosier R2<br />
8/22/14, Lookingforadventure R4; +Chip Of Art R12<br />
<br />
Tioga<br />
8/23/14, +Professorsdapapers R4<br />
<br />
Yonkers<br />
8/21/14, +Natural Habitat R4<br />
8/22/14, +Insane In Spain R9<br />
8/23/14, Man He Can Scoot R2, Bubble Boy R3<br />
<br />
<i>Ray Cotolo contributes to each edition. <o:p></o:p></i></div>
Frank Cotolohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14553088072331342917noreply@blogger.com276tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-51869753279997354752014-08-17T18:26:00.002-07:002014-08-17T18:26:17.723-07:00Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhB70jrc7HdxF5vhewTr_Nzf5YrQXC02dCLHi8SHxnS7XKdsJhEQ4KzLfgLzeMG60xFVX0-FHFEhSmuCh6VeawEF1z1bWYLdeZqpTc94FDCgQtWXgWC-9TdRN9eywrpPkDEORJTAKephnE/s1600/CUPLED.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhB70jrc7HdxF5vhewTr_Nzf5YrQXC02dCLHi8SHxnS7XKdsJhEQ4KzLfgLzeMG60xFVX0-FHFEhSmuCh6VeawEF1z1bWYLdeZqpTc94FDCgQtWXgWC-9TdRN9eywrpPkDEORJTAKephnE/s1600/CUPLED.jpg" height="293" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 10.9pt;">
Our best move of the weekend was Friday,
Aug. 15, at Northfield Park when our projected scenario came to life on the
“Home of the Flying Turns” and the strong third public choice, All Bets Off,
defeated the crowd’s big favorite, Mcwicked. All Best Off ($16.60, $2.40 ns)
paced by the two burning out speed ¾ lengths before the wire and won. Mcwicked
and Luck Be Withyou could not be separated for second and that dead heat killed
the place price. <br />
<br />
Another, bigger upset can not be placed on our watch. Datsyuk ruined Father
Patrick’s revenge race at Tioga by beating him at 25-1. Father Patrick was
trotting, though, unlike his gallop jaunt around the Meadowlands in the
Hambletonian. He dueled early on the outside but that is little excuse for the
powerhouse trotter to have been short a few steps at the wire. <br />
<br />
Dancin Yankee was not an upset but he defeated our choice, Heston Blue Chip
($5.20, $2.90), in the Joe Gerrity Memorial at Saratoga. That exacta (Dancin
Yankee was the overwhelming favorite) paid $16.80.<br />
<br />
In the frosh stakes at Mohawk we were no better than second in two
Nassagaweyas. We had Cowgirl Tough ($7.20, $2.10) with the favorite for an
exacta worth $32.10, as well as Go Daddy Go ($3.70, $3.20) among the colt affairs.<br />
<br />
Our choice from last week won the Gold Cup & Saucer but this week we went
with the fifth-place finisher, Scott Rocks, due to win-mutuel offerings. We
were second in the consolation with Mach Wheel ($2.50, $3 ok).<br />
<br />
Our opening essay for this year’s <a href="http://countdownbcrown.blogspot.com/">Breeders
Crown Countdown</a> blog is now on line. We will be linking to it for coverage
of races through the rest of the season leading to the championship events in
November.<br />
<br />
TwinSpires and Hoosier continue a three-pronged power-packed program for
harness players. Tuesdays, wager all you want and earn 10 TSC Elite Points per
dollar bet. <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/10x-tuesdays-hoosier-park"><span style="color: windowtext;">Click here for details</span></a>. Every Thursday
night, there is a 20-percent bonus on hitting the Pick 4 starting at Race 3. <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/20-pick-4-bonus-thursday-nights-hoosier-park"><span style="color: windowtext;">Click here for details</span></a>. And the ongoing
10-percent Pick-4 bonus every racing night on Pick-4 hits continues through the
meet. <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/10-pick-4-bonus-every-night-hoosier-park"><span style="color: windowtext;">Click here for details</span></a>.<br />
<br />
In between published harness blogs, follow @FrankCotolo and @TwinSpires on
Twitter to get tips on Hoosier contenders you can use in your tickets. Other
possibilities appear in exclusive H2W list.<br />
<br /><b>
H2W RESULTS</b><br />
<br />
The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Also, exactas are included when a
H2W horse finishing first or second completes the result with a race favorite
or another H2W horse listed in the same race (an asterisk appears when both
horses were listed to complete the exacta). This week, there were 35 active
horses on the H2W list. <br />
<br />
Winners<br />
<br />
Arrested Dreams, $14.80, $6.20, $5, Ocean<br />
Mistery Woman, $9.60, $3, $2.40, Pocono<br />
Pan Luis Obisop, $6, $4.30, $5 ok, Tioga<br />
Back To The West, $4.20, $2.60, $2.20, Yonkers<br />
Word Power, $4.20, $3, $2.60, Pocono<br />
Nf Happenstance, $3.30, $2.90, $2.50<br />
Lyonssomewhere, $3, $2.80, $2.40, Pocono<br />
Jk Endofanera, $2.50, $2.20, $2.10, Tioga<br />
Jolene Jolene, $2.10, $2.10, ok/ns, Tioga<br />
<br />
Seconds<br />
<br />
Crazy Wow, $4.40, $3.90, Tioga<br />
Jitterbug Hanover, $2.80, $2.60, Scarborough<br />
Father Patrick, nps, Tioga<br />
<br />
Thirds<br />
<br />
Head Of The Barn, $4.60, Scioto<br />
Whitesville Ted, $2.80, Ocean<br />
Winmando, $2.20, Ocean<br />
<br /><b>
News And Notes</b><br />
<br />
Returning from an eight-month layoff after being treated for a knee fracture, I
Luv The Nitelife, now four, finished fifth in a fillies-and-mares pacing event
at Mohawk on Aug. 15. She was sent to the top by driver Jack Moiseyev and set
quick fractions. After a 1:23.3 three-quarters 35-1 Hope For Paddy challenged
her. That one passed “Nitelife” and held off a closing American In Paris (which
finished second). Nitelife faded to finish behind four others in the seven-mare
field (a $27,000 event). <br />
<br />
The newest harness track, Hollywood Gaming at Dayton Raceway, is set to open in
October. The track operates in lieu of Raceway Park, the Toledo half-mile that
closed last season when Penn National Gaming, Inc. purchased the facility and
received permission to move the track so it is part of a new Ohio casino
spread. The five-eighths oval has a ship-in barn for horses that will race
Mondays and Wednesdays through Saturdays through Dec. 27 in 2014. In 2015,
Dayton plans to open after Labor Day to race through the end of the year. <br />
<br />
Yonkers Raceway has received approval from the New York State Gaming Commission
to conduct a half-dozen Sunday matinee cards—from Nov. 9<sup> </sup>through
Dec. 14, inclusive—as part of a new wagering relationship with the French
pari-mutuel agencies. The races are to be televised and wagered on through much
of Europe. First post of these trotting-dominated programs is scheduled for 11
a.m. ET, with more information regarding field sizes and race distances as it
becomes available. Six Sunday cards replace five Tuesday evenings (Nov. 11<sup>
</sup>through Dec. 9, inclusive) on the live schedule.<br />
<br />
On the night of the Carl Milstein at Northfield, trainer Mark Headworth had
three of his students racing in three different events on the card. In Race 3
his horse won and paid $12.40; in Race 12 his horse lost at 8-1; in Race 14 his
horse won and paid $49.20. Keep Mark in mind as a trainer to watch. You won’t
hear about him from the track publicists or handicappers because they are
calculating top trainers by raw wins, not win percentages or win prices. <br />
<br />
It was tough going for Illinois’ hottest harness fair in Springfield recently
when a precautionary quarantine affected horses and the usual racing schedule
was disrupted with cancellations. Thirty-three horses were isolated based on a
horse having shared barn space at Balmoral with a horse showing symptoms of
equine herpes virus. State officials took measures to prevent any possible
spread of the equine herpes. While being tested, the opening programs of the
harness meet were cancelled. Bad weather also contributed to nixing cards. When
the horse in question was tested and the results were negative, Springfield
continued its fair meet.<br />
<br />
<b>Extraordinary Extras </b><br />
<br />
Indulge in many standardbred topics at my <i>Hoof Beats</i> blog titled <a href="http://www.hoofbeatsmagazine.com/cotolo.cfm"><span style="color: windowtext;">Vast
Performances</span></a>. <br />
<br />
<i>Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog <br />
<br />
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Frank Cotolohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14553088072331342917noreply@blogger.com176tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-2480167947839131372014-08-15T10:39:00.002-07:002014-08-16T07:15:23.165-07:00Arlington Million Day Overlays & Underlays<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">With a great day of racing, including the
Arlington Million, on tap at Arlington Park on Saturday, I really wanted to
dive into the card and handicap some races… that’s what I wanted to do.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Unfortunately, time and a desire to keep
what’s left of my sanity overruled this desire and I decided, instead, to
provide some free handicapping reports for the big day (see below), as well as
some thoughts on certain horses in selected races.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">In a show of orderliness, I started with the
first race:</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(238, 238, 238);">Arlington Park</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(238, 238, 238);">Race 1</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(238, 238, 238);">7 furlongs (main track)</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(238, 238, 238);">Avg. ESR: -2 Avg. LSR: -15</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><u>Potential Underlay(s)</u></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Although he ranks third in overall speed on
my Pace Profile Report, 1-MYSTIC has finished in the money (third or better)
exactly one time since being claimed by trainer Robert Dobbs on Aug. 15, 2013.
Worse, the seven-year-old gelding has visited the winner’s circle just once in
eight non-turf tries over the course of his career. At odds anywhere close to
his morning line (9/2), he looks like a money-burner.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><u>Potential Overlay(s)</u></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">2-GHETTO CAT ranks first in overall speed on
my Pace Profile Report, makes his third start off of a layoff and has tactical
speed in a race with a sluggish average early speed ration (ESR) of -2. I think
he’s fairly priced at 7-2, yet he’s 8-1 on the morning line.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">6-DE GREEN LIGHT is 5-1 on my Win Factor
(computerized fair odds) line. I think that’s too low, but I also think De
Green Light’s morning line odds of 20-1 are too high.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(238, 238, 238);">Arlington Park</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(238, 238, 238);">Race 3</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(238, 238, 238);">About 1 Mile (turf course)</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(238, 238, 238);">Avg. ESR: +4 Avg. LSR: -3</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><u>Potential Overlay(s)</u></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">1/1A-WHATTHECATDRUGIN & COUGAR RIDGE make
an interesting entry. The former is 0-for-5 on the grass, yet has run well in
his last two turf tries at a mile or less (3<sup>rd</sup> in an allowance race
at seven furlongs at Mountaineer and 2<sup>nd</sup> in a starter handicap going
a mile at Indiana Downs). The latter comes off a winning effort in a race
similar to today’s at Indiana Downs, where he recorded a 95 Brisnet speed
figure (BSF) and a 0 late speed ration (LSR).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">6-TAZZ is a veteran (eight years old)
campaigner with a favorable front-running style and loads of back class (he won
the 2011 Black Tie Affair Handicap and numerous other top-purse events in
Illinois).</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(238, 238, 238);">Arlington Park</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(238, 238, 238);">Race 4</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(238, 238, 238);">About 1 Mile (turf course)</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(238, 238, 238);">Avg. ESR: +5 Avg. LSR: 0</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">This race for two-year-old, Illinois-bred
maidens features several first-time starters and, coincidentally, I just did a
study on horses making their debuts in route races — with some amazing results…</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
<span id="goog_1976718153"></span><span id="goog_1976718154"></span>DEBUT RACES AT ONE MILE OR GREATER</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i>* Last three workouts < 15 total
furlongs</i></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Number: 400 </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Winners: 26 </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Win Rate: 6.5% </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">IV: 0.60 </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">OBIV: 0.70</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i>* Last three workouts ≥ 15 total furlongs</i></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Number: 143 </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Winners: 18 </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Win Rate: 12.6% </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">IV: 1.15 </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">OBIV: 1.16</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwu9zlh_32kir5-vsXgv7nQHfDKnWfd11angf8PjeeQedDVjgzgY6CYzou0hcuaWmN7p1K6d2haBOv8_iqnzkHBCDeUbSsIswPdxdbEhrGE60M_2Y3gbk4QhXdsv22SR3GzmoZHp8YsYeB/s1600/OBIV+Key.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwu9zlh_32kir5-vsXgv7nQHfDKnWfd11angf8PjeeQedDVjgzgY6CYzou0hcuaWmN7p1K6d2haBOv8_iqnzkHBCDeUbSsIswPdxdbEhrGE60M_2Y3gbk4QhXdsv22SR3GzmoZHp8YsYeB/s1600/OBIV+Key.jpg" /></a></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">So, with this in mind, let’s take a look at
the “firsters” in this race.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><u>Last three workouts < 15 total
furlongs (possible underlays)</u></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">4-Always a Catch (8/1 morning line odds)</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">6-Broken In (8/1)</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">8-Tender May (20/1)</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">11-Ivanti (4/1)</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><u>Last three workouts <i>≥</i> 15 total
furlongs (possible overlays)</u></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">3-Kinsmanor (8/1)</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">5-Safe at Sea (6/1)</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">10-Stand Up Guy (6/1)</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(238, 238, 238);">Arlington Park</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(238, 238, 238);">Race 7</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(238, 238, 238);">About 1 11/16 Miles (turf
course)</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(238, 238, 238);">Avg. ESR: +7 Avg. LSR: +3</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><u>Potential Underlay(s)</u></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Each of the last two times 2-DANDINO came to
the US, he ran great — finishing a close second to Joshua Tree in the Grade I
Canadian International at Woodbine in 2012 and winning this very race last
year. </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">However, as Bob Dylan noted, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7qQ6_RV4VQ">the times they are a-changin’</a>.
Dandino is seven years old now and he’s coming off two of the worst
performances of his distinguished career. After finishing up the track at Ascot
on June 21, the son of Dansili was beaten 16 lengths in a Group 2 event at
Newmarket on July 10.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Will Dandino’s fortunes change in the Land of
Lincoln? Maybe. But, given that he’s likely to be one of the favorites, I’m not
betting on it.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><u>Potential Overlay(s)</u></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Former claimer 3-BIG KICK gets an advantageous
pace scenario (+7 avg. ESR) coming off the biggest win of his career in the
Grade II San Juan Capistrano at Santa Anita.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">6-HARDEST CORE (also entered in the Arlington
Million) is 7-1 on my Win Factor line, 20-1 on the morning line.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(238, 238, 238);">Arlington Park</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(238, 238, 238);">Race 10</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(238, 238, 238);">About 1 1/4 Miles (turf
course)</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(238, 238, 238);">Avg. ESR: +6 Avg. LSR: 0</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><u>Potential Overlay(s)</u></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">It’s hard to knock 3-MAGICIAN in this spot,
as this year’s Million field is far from stellar. However, given the distinct
lack of early zip in the day’s feature, I think both 1-HARDEST CORE (also
entered in the 7<sup>th</sup> race) and 7-SIDE GLANCE have a puncher’s chance
of scoring the upset.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Arlington Park Handicapping Reports</b></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><a href="https://valuewagering.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/ap081614wfr.pdf">Win Factor
Report</a> (computerized fair odds)</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><a href="https://valuewagering.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/ap081614ppr.pdf">Pace
Profile Report</a></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Speed Ration Key</b></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></span></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<![endif]-->Derek Simonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17033757422117269120noreply@blogger.com69tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-87423585330479834122014-08-14T08:39:00.000-07:002014-08-14T08:39:54.551-07:00Northfield, Saratoga In Stakes’ Focus; Grand Circuit To Canada, N.Y<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Big Friday and Saturday features spread across the east and
the borders on Aug. 15 and Aug 16. Six-figure events are rare at Northfield
Park and Saratoga Harness but this weekend they take the spotlights with the
Carl Milstein and Joe Gerrity memorials. <br />
<br />
It’s also Gold Cup & Saucer weekend, with a consolation on Friday and the
final on Saturday at Charlottetown Driving Park (pictured left). Also in Canada, Mohawk hosts
Nassagaweya stakes as the Grand Circuit (GC) dives into the season’s second
half with a big Saturday card. On Sunday Tioga Downs hosts some traditional GC
events, the Tompkins-Geers and you can find our choices for those along with
other suggested contenders on our horses-to-watch list (H2W). These are
valuable additions to your win, place and show bets and exotics through North
America. See our weekly list of “lookouts” below. <br />
<br />
Weekdays, check out the TwinSpires-Hoosier perks for players. Tuesdays, wager
all you want and earn 10 TSC Elite Points per dollar bet. <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/10x-tuesdays-hoosier-park"><span style="color: windowtext;">Click here for details</span></a>. Every Thursday
night, there is a 20-percent bonus on hitting the Pick 4 starting at Race 3. <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/20-pick-4-bonus-thursday-nights-hoosier-park"><span style="color: windowtext;">Click here for details</span></a>. And the ongoing
10-percent Pick-4 bonus every racing night on Pick-4 hits continues through the
meet. <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/10-pick-4-bonus-every-night-hoosier-park"><span style="color: windowtext;">Click here for details</span></a>.<br />
<br /><b>
Carl Cash At Northfield </b><br />
<br />
The $400,000 Carl Milstein Memorial at Northfield Park on Aug. 15 is a huge
cash event for glamour-boy pacers and the purse is so large this year it has
prompted the connections of Mcwicked to supplement their speedy colt. The first
sign that was worth the investment was when Mcwicked drew the rail, which at
the home of the Flying Turns is still a plus.<br />
<br />
Casie Coleman’s Mcwicked has lost to a few of the foes here in the bigger races
and has not dominated the division’s top events, so the representatives of the
other top trainers of the season deliver a race with deep competitive promise.<br />
<br />
Ron Burke’s All Bets Off has come around well and is six for nine coming to
Ohio. Jimmy Takter’s pacer, Tellitlikeitis was the favorite in the first
million-dollar race for the division and has been in the thick of all but one
of his six races. Stevensville was the winner over Hes Watching when that one
faltered in his soph debut; remember we gave you Stevensville at Yonkers that
night for a big win? Ohio-champ-conditioner Virgil Morgan, Jr. conditions
Boomboom Ballykeel (our choice and the upset winner of last year’s Metro).
Though the colt has not been on fire at three, he is three for seven in the win
column and Morgan knows this course. Chris Oakes aims Luck Be Withyou, an
honest threat to Mcwicked this season, at the purse. Joe Seekman’s Let’s Drink
On It has five wins in 11 starts, though they are against less-talented steeds.
Only Dan Altmeyer’s Seventh Secret appears to be buried in the talent, leaving
against this crew from post 8 with only hopes for a small piece of the pie
should a lot go wrong to his left. <br />
<br />
Mcwicked will launch hard out of the 1 hole and attempt to cut all the
fractions, making this a typical Northfield-wire-to-wire attempt based solely
on speed. That most likely scenario could be the downfall for Mcwicked, since
it would seem impossible that he would get away with cutting the fractions for
all four quarters in a race with this kind of pot; there will be challenges.
Which horse finds itself in the best position could be the one left with the
best kick.<br />
<br />
All Bets Off will be right behind Mcwicked when that one guns out and charts to
get the best trip to save ground. He did his best at Yonkers and could wind up
with a record mile if he comes out late with a successful bid or he shoots up
the passing lane. His price is negotiable but given the circumstances he may be
worth it as a second or third choice, since Mcwicked ($34,000 to get into this
event) will be showered with wins bets.<br />
<br /><b>
Carl Consolation</b><br />
<br />
The $100,000 consolation of the Carl Milstein Memorial offers this year’s
second-tier soph-pacing colts a means of redemption, with one specific pacer
from the field in desperate need of one. <br />
<br />
Sharp as a freshman, luck had abandoned Western Vintage upon his tangos with
the top guys, with every mile an encounter with misfortune. Upon his
elimination in the Max Hempt Memorial, trainer Nancy Johnasson gave her star
colt a break. Returning on racing’s biggest stage, the Hambletonian under card,
he was a game fourth in 1:50, albeit to a 90-1 Sweet Rock. Competing against
other colts that are in need of a redeeming mile, Western Vintage, who’s only
$2,000 off of qualifying for the final, should be raring to pace. <br />
<br />
With him is a promising colt in the exotics, Three Of Clubs. The Mach Three
speedster is winless in seven tries this year while competing mainly on the
Ontario Sires Stakes circuit. Regardless, his lone chance of receiving a check
will be utilizing his speed to sit near the top and hope to pass rivals in the
lane. With the weak speed honor going to Limelight Beach, it is more than
possible that he can pass enough horses to pay a handsome exacta. <br />
<br /><b>
Joe Dough At Saratoga</b><br />
<br />Saratoga Raceway features top aged pacers
in the $260,000 Joe Gerrity Memorial on Aug. 16. With the Foiled Again fan club
ready to tune in, there’s a possibility we can get a price on the best horse in
the field<br />
<br />
Coming in off of a first-over journey in the Dan Patch Invitational (against
Sweet Lou), Heston Blue Chip will start from the rail. The Linda Toscano
trainee was parked through insane fractions of :52.4 and 1:20.1, causing him to
falter to sixth. This group suits him perfectly, and from the rail, he will be
tough to beat. <br />
<br /><b>
Nassagaweya Whiz Kids</b><br />
<br />
Two-year-old colts get top-notch prizes for their best efforts in three
Nassagaweya splits, each worth more than $89,000, on Aug. 16 at Mohawk. The
crop has been dominated up north thus far by progeny from Sportswriter but we
don’t know to what extent that will affect the wagering.<br />
<br />
Round one could be a great score for a son of Somebeachsomewhere, as the Linda
Toscano-trained Asap Hanover gets a good spot to shine. The solo Sportswriter
kid comes out of post 8 here so Toscano’s colt gets a post edge, as well as Tim
Tetrick in the bike.<br />
<br />
Nine go in the second round and look who has a frosh pacer in the mix—Ake
Svanstedt. He hands the reins of Badix Hanover over to Jody Jamieson. Ake’s
stock continues to show power and profit and this Western Ideal colt is one of
the youngest in his barn with improvement written all over his racelines. Go
Daddy Go, the sole son of Ponder (fourth on the sires average earning list for
frosh pacers) in this field, could force the issue, as Bob MacIntosh is gunning
this recent winner of the Battle of Waterloo and teams up with John Campbell to
try for another score, though he may not offer the lovely 7-1 he paid last out.
<br />
<br />
In the nightcap, Artspeak gets the outside but will have support for his
first-season successes, which stick out. The Sportswriter son here is Sporting
The Look for the Jamiesons and he may have an edge if only by a few steps
gained from a better trip. This is a chance to support the Sportswriter crop
with national competition, as the sire’s success has been strongly local. If
they are that good there may be some prices attached to them which won’t be
available for long. <br />
<br />
<b>Eternally Yours</b><br />
<br />
The fairer frosh pacing set goes for scads of cash in three $76,000-plus
Eternal Camnation splits, also on Aug. 16. <br />
<br />
Round one gives us a chance at the sole Somebeachsomewhere in the field,
Queensland Beach. She’s a local but her sire is shining on the national scene
with frosh progeny and that average alone is worth backing.<br />
<br />
In the second split, a rare trainer/driver solo from Jack Moiseyev brings out
the Ponder gal Cowgirl Tough. We also find two from Rock N Roll Heaven’s first
crop, all of which are yet to show significance in stakes. Oddly enough, there
is a Rocknroll Hanover filly here too, so sire and sire’s sire have blood
flowing here, but we’ll stick with the Ponder gal on top.<br />
<br />
Finally, more first-crop fillies hit the scene in the nightcap. Those of you
who have read this department through the years know of our successes with If I
Can Dream. His filly, Yes You Can is another Jamieson-barn property and if he
will shine as a sire early he will have an upset win here. The Sportswriter gal
is on the outside and the Somebeachsomewhere gal looms boldly but Yes You Can
may complement the early data of her sire at a price.<br />
<br /><b>
Flying Saucer</b><br />
<br />
The $20,000 consolation for the Gold Cup & Saucer (renamed the James
Roach MacGregor Memorial) is set to end the evening card at Charlottetown of
Friday, Aug. 15. Due to the field size in the trials, only four failed to
qualify for the “Saucer” final in this six-horse grouping. Based off their
performances, it’s a wide-open affair. <br />
<br />
Residing at the rail is Mach Wheel, who tracked cover and couldn’t chase Mickey
Hanover in his 1:50.4 journey around the P.E.I. oval. Exempting that effort, he
was a talented pacer at the Ontario B-tracks in their Preferred levels. The
inside draw will likely put him in a position towards the front, which will
make taking control late in the mile an easier task. <br />
<br />
Duke Did It can also make this wagering affair interesting. Sitting the pocket
to Mickey Hanover in his trial, he severely faltered to finish sixth by 26
lengths. He fits well into this group and will likely be forwardly placed. <br />
<br />
While the $60,000 Gold Cup & Saucer will not see 12 horses go for the gold,
an octet of speedy aged pacers will blaze around the half-mile track. Given the
circumstances of the post draw (Aracache Hanover drawing post 2 and Mickey
Hanover post 8), it might be safe to say this will be a take-no-prisoners
event. The ultimate speed of this field is Mickey Hanover, who will have to gun
in order to get his comfortable spot on the front. That is, if he can get on
the front. <br />
<br />
In his second start off a sick scratch, Scott Rocks made his debut at
Charlottetown. Getting away last in his trial, he managed to pick up cover and,
upon three-quarters, was left alone two wide while Mickey Hanover was preparing
to lift flight. Scott Rocks managed to finish third in his trial. Drawing post
4 in the final, in the event of a fast pace, he’ll likely be poised for an
upset. <br />
<br /><i>
H2W Legend</i><br />
<br /><i>
Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are
possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are
listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The
race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front
of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last
time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the
horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer
to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than
one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your
judgment. If you have any questions, email us at <a href="http://www.twinspires.com/">TwinSpires</a>. </i><br />
<br /><b>
H2W </b><br />
<br />
Batavia<br />
8/15/14, Scorpius R4; Blown Away R6<br />
<br />
Grand River<br />
8/15/14, Cons Legacy R5<br />
<br />
Meadows<br />
8/15/14, Allstar Shark R4; Bluenose Gal R7<br />
<br />
Mohawk<br />
8/15/14, +Bee Full Of Steinum R4; I Luv The Nitelife R10<br />
<br />
Ocean<br />
8/14/14, Not Tonight R3<br />
8/15/14, Ge’s Alex R2; Whitesville Ted R3; Truly My Way R4; South Dakota R4;
Rhapsody Rose R6; Ny Ice R7; Winmando R9; Arrested Dreams R10<br />
8/17/14, Osceda Gold R6<br />
<br />
Philadelphia<br />
8/15/14, +Real Leggy R4; +Jerseylicious R6<br />
<br />
Pocono<br />
8/15/14, Spirit Of Desire R7<br />
8/16/14, +Lyonssomewhere R3; Word Power R10; Mistery Woman R14<br />
<br />
Running Aces<br />
8/16/14, Co-op Hanover R6<br />
<br />
Saratoga<br />
8/14/14, Dontmakemelaugh R11<br />
8/15/14, +Lauderdale R8<br />
<br />
Scarborough<br />
8/15/14, +Jitterbug Hanover R3;
+Trotting Trice R7<br />
<br />
Scioto<br />
8/16/14, Mystical Brothers R2; +Head Of The Barn R3; Chip Of Art R11<br />
<br />
Tioga<br />
8/1514, Pan Luis Obispo R7<br />
8/17/14, Crazy Wow R3; Josies Joy R4; Uffizi Hanover R5; +Jk Endofanera R7;
+Jolene Jolene R8; +Father Patick R9<br />
<br />
Yonkers<br />
8/15/14, +Nf Happenstance R8; Back To The West R9<br />
8/16/14, Duel In The Sun R5<br />
<br />
<i>Ray Cotolo contributes to each edition. <o:p></o:p></i></div>
Frank Cotolohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14553088072331342917noreply@blogger.com56tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2887481384347889633.post-67295661966278597152014-08-13T11:19:00.001-07:002014-08-13T11:19:24.906-07:00TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 08/13 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;">TwinSpires' Derek Simon discusses the British Horseracing
Authority’s <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2014/aug/10/fergal-lynch-british-horseracing-authority-rides-ayr">surprising
ruling</a> in the Fergal Lynch case, as well as Del Mar’s new <a href="http://www.drf.com/news/beyer-pick-five-shows-how-lower-takeout-works">Player’s
Pick Five</a> and NYRA Senior Vice President of Racing Operations <a href="http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/86698/panza-suggests-more-focus-on-big-event-days">Martin
Panza’s idea</a> to highlight “big event days.”</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<br />
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: small;">In the U. of Bet segment, Derek discusses the proper mindset
he believes is needed to become a winning player.
</span></span></div>
Derek Simonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17033757422117269120noreply@blogger.com71