TwinSpires Blog

Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

2013-06-01T23:12:00.001-07:00

It was a stakes-filled weekend and if you like the headline events get used to it because we are just starting with the big-purse flow. Let’s start this review with our good-news wins.

At the Meadows we nailed the $178 exacta in the Pennsylvania Sires Stakes (PASS) for soph-colt pacers with Our Dragon King, who paid $31 to win. Our other choice, Martini Hanover, was second to complete the combo.

At Yonkers we had the winner in the Lismore with JK Black Beauty, paying $9.70.

Then, to our second-placers we add Betterthancheddar in the Molson Pace and Lonewolf Currier in the Art Rooney Final. The best second, however, was Varadero Hanover, who was 56-1 in a division of the Somebeachsomewhere stakes. The place price was $27.50 and the show was $6.90, as the favorite finished off the board.

In the two other PASS miles we had thirds with Some Kinda Beach (8-1) and Big Risk (7-1). In the Golden Girls and New Jersey Sires Stakes (NJSS) finals for soph pacers we had three fourth-place finishers. We passed on the filly NJSS due to the strong favorite and she lost.

For result stories on the slew of soph-colt-and-filly trotters’ stakes, visit the Hambletonian Society’s special archive page for the Hambletonian Trail stories.

H2W

Only 11 on the H2W went to post this past weekend; here are the winners:

$12.80 Fiftytwoflat, Scioto
$8.20 Medley Mindale, Northfield
$7.60 Magical Ability, Scarborough
$6.40 Fraggle, Northfield

The following are the horses that finished second or third along with their post-time odds. Special notes on those finishes follow.

Seconds:
Millbrook Millie (8-1), Vernon

Thirds:
There were no thirds.

All adjustments for returnees to the list and additions will be in the Thursday blog.

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News And Notes

Two-year-olds are revving up and youngsters from the Jimmy Takter stable are showing their stuff in baby races at the Meadowlands. Lifetime Pursuit trotted to a 5-length, 1:57.2 effort to start. Takter drove the next winner, Shake It Cerry, in 2:01.3 to win by 2 lengths. “Cerry” is a daughter of Donato Hanover from Solveig, making her a full sister to $300,000 winner Solvato and half-sister to $378,000 winner Dontyouforgetit. Takter’s next winner was Father Patrick, who rolled to a 4-length win in 2:01. Then, Instant Respect was 3 lengths the best in 1:58.1.

Mohawk held baby races and trainer Dave Menary’s barn took three. Somebaysomewhere hit the wire first in her test in 2:02 over the track rated “good.”

Menary next scored with Hes Watching, who also came from behind to take his test in 1:56.4, the fastest mile of the program. Menary’s colt, King Royalty, wore down the leader in the lane to narrowly win in 2:03.3.

Trainer and owner Eddie Green had a pair of winners starting with the trotter Century Amadeus who was home in 2:05. Green’s second winner was Valorscross in 2:04.1. The other winner on the card was Boomboom Ballykeel who gave trainer Cm McKnight a 2:00.4 ride to win by 4 lengths.

Last year’s Hambletonian winner, Market Share, returned at four to the races on May 31 at the Meadowlands. He was rated off the lead and wound up in a perfect stalking position as Harbor Point set an honest pace of 27.1, 55.1, 1:24.1 and Ice Machine provided cover. Driver Tim Tetrick guided his charge in the last turn and finished off foes in 1:51.1. The colt is conditioned by Linda Toscano.

June 1 was opening night at Running Aces Harness Park. It was the first of 53 programs that will go every Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday through June, July and August. It’s the sixth season of racing at Minnesota’s only commercial harness track. Trainer-driver Jason Ryan, who has brought a nine-horse stable to Minnesota, is new to the horseman community. He is a promising young 24 year-old. Also new to the ares is Luke Plano, whose father is Vernon’s top reinster, Rick. Luke was the leading driver in California over the past two years, earning over $8.5 million with his mounts to date. Trainers making their initial Running Aces starts are Don Sherman from Michigan, Bob Johnson from California, Paul Ruhl from Ontario and Brett Ballinger of Illinois.

As of this writing, 35 three-year-old colts and geldings remain eligible to Canada’s richest harness race, the $1-million North America Cup, which has eliminations on June 8 at Mohawk. The majority of them tuned up this past weekend. Rockin Amadeus is set to match strides again with Captaintreacherous if the two wind up in the same elim and/or in the final. “Amadeus” won on June 1 over Johny Rock, another “Cup” eligible, by a nose. Also winning over the weekend were eligibles Vegas Vacation and Beach Memories. We’ll cover all the elim fields in next Thursday’s blog.

Extraordinary Extras

Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

Every weekend as part of that blog we offer Balmoral Pick-4-and-win picks at the USTA’s Strategic Wagering Program page which includes suggested win bets.

Connect to Twitter and follow Frank and Ray Cotolo for up-to-the-minute suggestions on wagers at many harness raceways. Then, wager from your TwinSpires accounts.

Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog.

Cartoons by Thom Pye

Understanding Form Cycles

2013-05-31T08:31:00.005-07:00

It’s no secret that I’m not enamored with the "bounce theory" — the notion that a tough race will knock a horse off its game for weeks or months at a time. In my opinion, this theory, which was first espoused by followers of “The Sheets” (a term applied to both Len Ragozin’s speed figure service of the same name and Jerry Brown’s Thoro-graph numbers), has been very detrimental to racing.

It is at least partly due to the bounce theory that we see trainers keep their charges on the sidelines for extended periods of time under the pretext that they are “doing what’s right” by the animals in their care. After all, horses are not machines; they need to recuperate after a strenuous effort, we are told.

What constitutes a “strenuous” effort is anybody’s guess, however. Sometimes it means a close finish or a prolonged drive (witness Rachel Alexandra in the 2009 Woodward below); other times it is simply a race that produces a swift clocking or extraordinary speed figure.

2009 Woodward Stakes

In the latter case, a horse is said to have bounced if its follow-up race features a speed figure lower than the extraordinarily high figure. Of course, on the face of it, this argument is absurd. As I pointed out in “Bounce Baloney,” a piece I did for one of my Kentucky Derby betting guides, in finite data series there is a limit as to how high — or how low — the numbers can go.

"Hence, as a horse approaches its performance threshold, the possibility of a regression, or bounce, becomes more and more likely, purely from a mathematical standpoint," I argued.

While not meaning to, Andrew Beyer proved my contention while dissecting his own speed figures in “Beyer on Speed:”

"When the Racing Form undertook its study of the Beyer Speed Figures, I had a chance to examine some patterns and determine if they had any bearing on a horse’s future performance," Beyer wrote in that 1993 tome. "I asked the computer what happens after a horse has run a sequence of three improving figures or three declining figures on the dirt during a four-month period. If, for example, he earns figures of 70, 65, and 60, is he likely to continue this decline? I expected that such trends would have little or no value as predictors of the future, but I was dead wrong. Of 3,592 horses who had run three declining figures:

1,173 (32 percent) continued their decline,

134 (4 percent) ran the same figure as in the previous start.

2,285 (64 percent) ran an improved figure."

Beyer then went on to document the results of 4,518 horses that showed the opposite pattern — a series of three improving figures, which he later termed the “three-and-out” pattern due to the abysmal results:

1,125 (25 percent) improved again in their next race.

192 (4 percent) ran the same figure as in the previous start.

3,201 (71 percent) declined in the next race.

2,368 (52 percent) declined by 6 points or more.

Unfortunately, Beyer ignored the obvious mathematical explanation for this data and, instead, offered a mea culpa to Ragozin and “The Sheets” players.

"For me, the most important lessons to be drawn from the existence of the three-and-out pattern are conceptual ones," the speed figure guru wrote. "It verifies Ragozin’s premise — which I had always doubted and often derided — that patterns of past figures may indeed be meaningful. It suggests that many other such patterns may exist. And it confirms Ragozin’s central tenet that a peak performance is apt to be followed by a decline."

Well, yes and no. Yes, a peak performance is likely to be followed by a decline (again, this is a near-certainty if the word “peak” means anything). But, no, it does not confirm Ragozin’s central tenet — because “The Sheets” guys argue that a bounce is primarily a physical, not a mathematical, manifestation (I contend it is nearly always the latter).

Still, we can use this concept of bouncing — mathematical bouncing, that is — to help answer that age-old question: How will our horse run today?

I applied Beyer’s three-and-out rules to my Win Factor Report Form Ratings, which assign a percentage (0 to 100) based on a horse’s finishing position and beaten lengths in a particular race. A 100 percent rating indicates a winning effort; lower ratings indicate lesser performances.

Here’s what I found:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Shockingly (not really), just as improving Beyer speed figures increase the likelihood of a regression, so too do ascending Form Ratings — especially if the most recent Rating exceeds 75 percent.

Likewise, deteriorating Form Ratings increase the probability of a form reversal.

Viewed in this light, maybe the Preakness Stakes wasn’t such a head-scratcher after all. Just two horses — Oxbow and Itsmyluckyday — entered that 1 3/16-mile contest with fading form… they finished first and second respectively.

(Click on image to enlarge)

So, with this in mind, let’s take a look at some weekend races:

May 31

We’ll start at my home track, Arapahoe Park. In Friday’s opener, one horse shows deteriorating Form Ratings — and he happens to have the best overall speed figures in the field. That, to me, makes Valid Thief very dangerous, especially since the morning line favorite (Clay W. Woodstock) looks pretty weak.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Another race that intrigues me is the fourth at Mountaineer Park. Although there are no obvious “mathematical bounce” candidates, the figures suggest that Goose No Fruit and Tempestuous One are the ones to beat.

(Click on image to enlarge)

June 2

PRM7: In a race that looks wide open, I like the figures on 7-TETON BEAUTY and 6-PRINCESS OF POWER. Both have solid records over the local oval and both come off of deceptively good races.

(Click on image to enlarge)

LS6: There’s not a lot of early zip in this race, which makes 1-ENERGY'S PRIDE very interesting—especially since he recorded an insane -15 ESR chasing better over a route of ground last time. This race appears to fit him like a glove… and not the one in the OJ trial.

(Click on image to enlarge)

HOL5: Backing strong favorites in maiden races isn’t my cup of tea, but 1-APOSTLE PAUL appears to hold all the aces in this spot… although it is a contentious race.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Powerful Pacing Parade

2013-05-29T21:53:00.000-07:00

Pacers adorn this weekend’s highlights, with older and younger fields in combat. For the mare pacers there are two generously pursed Golden Girl divisions at the Meadowlands and there are two New Jersey Sires Stakes (NJSS) finals for sophomore pacers on a huge Saturday program. More sophomores vie for big cash at Yonkers in the Art Rooney Final and Lismore (fillies) and colts fess up for lucrative Pennsylvania Sires Stakes (PASS) at the Meadows. In Canada, the Somebeachsomewhere stakes applaud speedy steeds in honor of the great sidestepper.

The soph trotters continue on the long road to August. You can read our analysis of those races in this week’s Hambletonian Trail blog, brought to you exclusively by TwinSpires and the Hambletonian Society.

More winners are projected in our exclusive harness horses to watch (H2W) list from tracks around North America.

TwinSpires offers special bonuses for Hoosier Park throughout the harness meet. Check out the Hoosier details here.

Keystone And Jersey Sireds

A trio of PASS for glamour-boy pacers are each over $79,000 at the Meadows on Friday, May 31. One of our successful choices, Martini Hanover, may be worth a shot with odds higher than the 2-1 he presented last week. The crowd will be all over Normandy Invasion, leaving “Martini” to hover as second choice or worse. Don’t count out Our Dragon King, who we shocked everyone with when he scored big at two. He is going to be a divisional highspire and though off to a slow start must be addressed, certainly at high odds.

Next, trainer Ron Burke will likely offer the favorite with Dedi’s Dragon and that will open up a chance to get a good price on Some Kinda Beach. He is four for four this season and could make some major noise here.

Then, we return to back Bigrisk, who was third for us last week. He may go off the favorite but probably not by many dimes, since Twillight Bonfire will get good support and the Dave Palone mount from post one will attract Palone fans.

On Saturday, two NJSS finals, each worth $150,000, are on tap at the Meadowlands for the glamourous guys. A field of 10 go, with top names looking to cash in early on a big event. The top pair are Rockin Amadeus and Johny Rock, both beginning their soph seasons with fervor. There could be a price here, though, worth targeting, in Emeritus Maximus. It might be considered an upset but only due to the name recognition of the top pair. “Maximus” may be better at three and is going very well now for trainer Tony Alagna. We support him in this hoard of Rocknroll Hanover offspring.

The fillies’ NJSS final is in the hands of I Luv The Nitelife, who will be the huge public choice and rightfully so. She seems to have entered her soph season with all the tools needed to dominate the division and an upset here is beyond our talents to predict. So a pass is our decision.

Monsters Of Molson

The $150,000 Molson Pace Invitation at Western Fair Raceway will be contested as an invitational for the first time on May 31. The field will line up as follows: 1. Foiled Again, 2. Aracache Hanover, 3. State Treasurer, 4. Versado, 5. Rock On Moe, 6. Keystone Velocity, 7. A Rocknroll Dance and 8. Betterthancheddar.

It will be his fifth trip to the event for Foiled Again, the sport’s richest pacer of all time. In 2011 he captured the final, worth $300,000 that year. Last year Foiled Again successfully defended his title. He won the final by a head over stable-mate Clear Vision in 1:51.3.

But look out, the connections of Betterthancheddar accepted the invite to the final and the world-class pacer will be making his seasonal debut. He was a Breeders Crown champ and a surprise dominating factor in his division last season. His 8-hole start may only boost his odds, an element of his debut we embrace.

More trouble may be in the works for the others as the connections of Something For Doc decided to bypass the Molson, leaving an invitation that was accepted by the connections of A Rocknroll Dance. He appears well healed from problems that set him back late last season and recently finished a strong fourth in the Dan Patch Invitational at Hoosier Park, which was a burnout’s paradise. He does, however, have more to be concerned about starting from post 7 than Betterthancheddar, who starts to his outside.

For pure value, Betterthancheddar is our choice. Even with “Foiled” on the rail and the mystery of “Dance,” Casie Coleman may have her champion primed to debut in a big way. In fact, considering the prowess of this beast, you may not get a chance this season to see odds as large as we assume may present themselves here.

Beach Boys

Fourteen glamour-boy pacers drew into a pair of $75,000 divisions of the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes this Saturday, June 1, at Mohawk. This event is formerly the Burlington Stakes. This is the final stakes event leading up to the $1-million North America Cup. eliminations on June 8 ( the final will be on June 15).

The first division features Vegas Vacation and Captive Audience, both top eligibles for the Cup. Vegas Vacation comes into the race off a pair of wins in conditioned company for trainer Casie Coleman. Captive Audience began his soph career with two seconds in conditioned races. Also here are Sweet Talkin Satin, Tarpon Hanover, Evenin Of Pleasure, Mach Pride and Urbanite Hanover. “Vegas” will be gunning but not offering much to win. We are interested in Mach Pride, one of the top-10 frosh-pacing earners last year. Giving him a shot in this could wind up to be a profitable move.

The second division features Fool Me Once and Odds On Equuleus. Fool Me Once kicked off his soph season well for trainer Mark Austin , winning all three starts.. Odds On Equuleus opens his soph season here off three sharp qualifying wins for trainer Robin Schadt. Also here are Moonliteonthebeach, Varadero Hanover, Resistance Futile, Sunshine Beach and See And Ski. Varadero Hanover has won three of six this season and is gearing up for major stakes. He would be a nice catch here and needs to be respected.

Absent from the divisions is Captaintreacherous, the top frosh-turned soph and early choice to win the Cup and other stakes for the glamour-boy divisions. His connections said that they’e skipping the Somebeachsomewhere due to travel considerations for the colt. Captaintreacherous’ trainer, Tony Alagna, is based in New Jersey and the connections don’t want the colt shipping just prior to the Cup elims.

Golden Gals

Mare pacers go after a lot of money, $90,000 plus in each division of the Golden Girls at the Meadowlands on June 1. Here they are again, the hard-working femme creatures of pacing, always at odds with one another, tightly matched and vehemently competitive.

Round one offers six of them, with Anndrovette on the outside and Feeling You, already a winner of seven, on the wood. We should take heed of Bettor B Lucky because she is always ready to upset these types when a big purse is offered and do it at a price. Here she may be send off at a fair price of 3-1 or more, which is worth nabbing.

In round two, our big score last week, Economy Terror, takes on her second of the season and is in a similar situation to get a winning trip, though we don’t expect her to go off anywhere near 10-1. This group appears lighter than the Betsy Ross cast, with speed that could come up short enough to appeal to a late-charging win. So we take her right back.

Rooney Rousers

The 23rd edition of Yonkers Raceway’s Art Rooney final on June 1. This year, glamour-boy pacers go for a purse of $275,000. The field, in post-position order: 1-Sunfire Blue Chip, 2-Source of Pride, 3-Mach it So, 4-Good Day Mate, 5-Doctor Butch, 6-Sir Cary's Zam, 7- Lonewolf Currier and 8-Bet the Moon. Sunfire Blue Chip and Source of Pride race as a common-owner/trainer entry.

We will go once again with Mach It So, who finished second for us in one of the elims last week. He could be the third choice if people go for the coupled entry and even though Lonewolf Currier has to negotiate the outside he will get a good piece of the win pool (if he doesn’t it will be because of the post and you had better respect him if the crowd lets him go off as third choice or worse).

The companion stake is the $117,060 Lismore Pace for soph fillies. Although trainer Linda Toscano has four in the field, they are uncoupled due to bona fide separate ownership. But Freetime and Handsoffmycupcake are coupled due to common co-owner/trainer Scott DiDomenico. We will take JK Black Beauty, who should be a good price against the aforementioned foes. With a tight cover trip and no traffic late, “JK” could fly by the others, especially if they have been shuffling and battling during the four turns.

H2W Legend

Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track to decide how you will use the information. The list has shortened as the stakes season ensues but still offers the best possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races.

The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means that horse is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared.

An “ae” signals the horse is entered but on the also-eligible list (so it might not get into the race). Multi-horses may be listed in the same race. Horses from previous lists that are not racing this week will no longer appear until they are confirmed in a race.

Wagering on any of the H2W listed horses is based on your own judgment. Your handicapping skills should include decisions to wager to win, place, show or in exotics. If you have any questions about the H2W list, send them to us through the TwinSpires blog channel.

H2W

Buffalo

5/31/13, So Over R1; Spencer B R1

Hoosier
5/30/13, Justified R 6

Maywood
5/31/13, +Catch The Rapids R4; +Mack Brenlin R14

Northfield
5/31/13, Medley Mindale R2; Fraggle R15

Scarborough
5/31/13, Magical Ability R3; +Dvc Journey Home R4; +Can You Fly R6; Keystone Howie R8
6/1/13, Win The West R5

Scioto
6/1/13, Kf Shark R2; +Lookinforadventure R5; Fiftytwoflat R5; Yakkity Yak Jack R10

Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 05/29 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio

2013-05-29T11:02:00.000-07:00

Derek Simon and Ed DeRosa discuss the 2013 campaign of defending Horse of the Year Wise Dan, as well as the future prospects of top three-year-olds Orb an Verrazano.

In the U. of Bet segment, Dave Schwartz is back and he offers an interesting way for “traditional” handicappers to answer that time-honored question: to bet or not to bet?

Lastly, in the History segment, Derek uses a recent thrift store purchase to make a point about technology in handicapping.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 05/29 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio

Turning $20 to show into $10,000

2013-05-28T09:59:00.000-07:00

We're still 11 days out, but the Belmont Stakes (click for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs of possible entrants) is shaping up to be a fantastic race as part of an always-fascinating card at Belmont Park.

Many of us (including the TwinSpires.com Players Pool) will attempt to conquer the $1-million guaranteed Pick 6 and/or Pick 4 pools or any number of wagering opportunities on this day of more than $90-million in handle, but for 14 players on TwinSpires.com, a $20 show wager could be the most lucrative bet of the day.

The potential bonanza comes by way of being the only people to survive similar $20 show bets on both the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands and the Preakness Stakes. Whomever makes a successful bet on the Belmont Stakes will split a $10,000 prize pool based on how many $20 show wagers were hit throughout the Kentucky Derby prep & Triple Crown seasons.

Of the 1,253 who made qualifying show bets on the Derby, 344 (27.4%) advanced to the Preakness where Orb's fourth-place contributed to thinning the field by another 96% to the 14 are are still alive

Those 14 surviving players have earned 70 shares total, meaning each share is worth a minimum of $119.04 if everyone hits the Belmont. Shares earned range from two (7 players) to ten (three players), so the minimum bonus is $357.12 to those with a pair of shares and $1309.44 to those with ten. Of course, if only one person survives then s/he would win the whole $10,000 regardless of how many shares s/he had going into the Belmont.

The range of possibilities makes it an interesting study in gamesmanship. Picking the most likely horse to hit the board may yield a small show payoff ($2.60-$3), but a guaranteed $357.12 bonus is like getting back $38-$39, and that kind of scratch can be tough to turn down even in the face of going for thousands of dollars--because when it comes to betting longshots to show, you're at the mercy of who finishes in the other two positions.

Getting cute and being right with a horse like Giant Finish won't matter much if Revolutionary and Orb complete the tri, so if you're going to take a big swing you want to make sure you'll be rewarded for it.

Kathy Brady already knows she's going for Revolutionary in the Belmont. That was her pick in the Derby, and his third-place finish advanced her to the Preakness where Mylute advanced her to the Belmont.

"The Withers to me was the most impressive prep race, so I thought Revolutionary could win [the Derby] so I picked him to show," said Barker, who currently has seven shares and would collect a minimum of $952.32 with a successful Belmont bet. "In the Preakness I thought Orb would win, but his odds were terrible, so I thought Mylute could be possible for second or third. Oxbow was not in my thoughts to win. I won nothing but my Mylute show bet.

"I don't know if post position matters that much in the Belmont, but I think Castellano back on Revolutionary can make a difference, so I will have him back as my show bet."

Pete Ballard is one of three people with ten shares, and like Brady, Ballard has advanced through the Triple Crown season by using Revolutionary and Mylute. Unlike Brady, however, Ballard is unsure who his Belmont pick will be. As a devoted user of the Brisnet.com MultiCAPS files, Ballard likes to crunch the numbers before making picks.

"I am a software developer, and I use the MultiCAPS data files to do my analysis," Ballard said. "I use four main factors that I key off of, but I still look at other variables that I learned from Brisnet.com newsletter/tutorials--things like pace, race shapes, value, and finding the 'horse for the course.'

"As far as the Belmont is concerned, can Orb come back and be a legit favorite this time or is he regressing now? Can Mylute improve at this distance? How does Revolutionary look after a 4 week rest and does it have the pedigree for this distance? There are several other horses in the Belmont that I like besides these three. I need to look deeper ... before I can make a decision."

It's easy to understand the desire to explore all angles when as much as $10,000 is on the line for something as seemingly simple as a $20 show bet.

For those out of the Showdown promotion (or those never in it, anyway), all TwinSpires.com players will have a chance at an extra $10,000 courtesy the Belmont Pick 4 bonus. All those who hit the all-stakes Pick 4 ending with the Belmont Stakes will share in a separate $10,000 prize pool.

Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

2013-05-26T18:34:00.001-07:00

Hello from my neighborhood track, Penn National Racecourse (see photo by Sharon Hindermyer). Here I was by the paddock, sheltered from the rain pelting the track, watching my thoroughbred-trainer friend Frank Cifarelli walk his steed before sending it to the gate in a maiden-claiming event recently. I have lived close to Penn National for two decades; in an area rich with racehorse farms and training facilities, and still love to hang out with horsemen and betting pals.

Harness racing, however, keeps me busy in my home office, where I am logged into TwinSpires, watching racing streams and on top of all the action. This past weekend we followed our suggested contenders from the Thursday blog, as usual, all weekend.

We scored only once in weekend features but it was a dandy. Economy Terror won the Betsy Ross at Philadelphia, as we predicted, and paid $21.80.

The Dan Patch Invitational at Hoosier was the perfect event for Bolt The Duer. He won it in his usual opportunistic style, getting the pocket and saving ground while a few others burned the fractions to ashes. He went off at 5-2, while last year’s champ and our choice, Rockincam, finished third.

We were second in both Art Rooney elims at Yonkers, falling to a 5-1with Mach It So (7-2) and the 7-5 choice with Lone Wolf Currier (2-1).

In the New Jersey Sires Stakes for soph colt and filly pacers, we were third in the first colt division with Rocnrolwilneverdie (6-1), last with Authorize in the sole filly split and fourth in the other colt split.

For result stories on the slew of soph-colt-and-filly trotters’ stakes on May 24, visit the Hambletonian Society’s special archive page for the Hambletonian Trail stories.

H2W

$23.40 Hoosier Jetta, Maywood
$10.40 Berosus, Buffalo
$10.20 They Call Me Moon, Meadows
$6.40 Lebo Jones, Cal Expo
$5.20 Allamerican Cheer, Scarborough
$5.00 Frog Juice, Scioto
$3.20 Luvalicious, Scarborough
$2.60 Mybrothergeorge, Scioto

The following are the horses that finished second or third along with their post-time odds. Special notes on those finishes follow.

Seconds:
Primrose Path (6-1), Maywood; Run Rose Leah (7-2), Northfield; Dartmouth Hall (5-2), Buffalo; Bombay Away (2-5), Buffalo; Strong Hope (12-1), Tioga

Thirds:
Mack Brenlin (5-2), Maywood; Can You Fly (11-1), Scarborough; Four Hoof Drive (5-2), Buffalo

All adjustments for returnees to the list and additions will be in the Thursday blog.

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News And Notes

A reminder about Yonkers Raceway: After the Art Rooney Pace/Lismore stakes program on June 1, the track will be dark for live racing until Friday, June 14.

Racing returned to Mohawk on May 25 for its 50th season of harness racing. The 84-card meet will host live programs on Thursday through Saturday nights, plus Monday nights, until Oct. 14. Post time is 7:25 p.m. EDT The most anticipated event on the stakes calendar is the 30th edition of the Pepsi North America Cup, featuring the finest three-year-old pacers on Saturday, June 15. A special 7:05 p.m. post time is scheduled for that program, topped by the $1-million race. Other major race dates this summer include the Maple Leaf Trot on Saturday, July 20; the Metro Pace and Canadian Pacing Derby on Saturday, Aug. 31 and the Canadian Trotting Classic on Saturday, Sept. 14.

Buffalo Raceway Sunday afternoon racing will begin on June 2 and continue until the end of meeting – eight Sundays in all. The track will be continuing a Wednesday, Friday and Saturday schedule through July 21.

In the first start of her four-year-old campaign, Maven set a Woodbine track record and equaled the Canadian record for older trotting mares in her $30,000 division of the Miss Versatility Series. Maven, who captured the Breeders Crown last October at Woodbine and was one of Check Me Out’s top foes in their soph season, got under the wire first in 1:52 for regular pilot Yannick Gingras. Trained by Jonas Czernyson, Maven lifted her career bankroll to $929,680. The daughter of Glidemaster had an 8-5-0 record last season from 15 starts.

Extraordinary Extras

Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

Every weekend as part of that blog we offer Balmoral Pick-4-and-win picks at the USTA’s Strategic Wagering Program page which includes suggested win bets.

Connect to Twitter and follow Frank and Ray Cotolo for up-to-the-minute suggestions on wagers at many harness raceways. Then, wager from your TwinSpires accounts.

Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog.

Cartoons by Thom Pye

Preakness 2013: Redemption for ‘Figure Handicapping’

2013-05-25T13:43:00.000-07:00

In the days leading up to and immediately following the Kentucky Derby, all I heard about was Orb.

Orb, Orb, Orb… I finally understood how Jan Brady felt.

Frankly, I wasn’t that impressed with the horse and had trouble understanding what all the fuss was about — kind of like Nicki Minaj’s career. Even after he made me look foolish in Louisville, I still wasn’t convinced that Orb had what it took to be the subject of a future Disney movie, much less a Triple Crown winner.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Of course, I made this determination based on numbers: speed ratings and my own pace figures (speed rations) — and that’s where the trouble started. You see, I found out from racing fans and other media types that the data I’ve relied on to guide me through the perilous pari-mutuel waters for more than 20 years were, well, worthless.

Beyer was (and presumably still is) an idiot; Tom Brohamer is a complete moron; Bill Quirin is a certified loon — and I belong in a padded cell for ever listening to and/or learning from these whakos.

According to Orb supporters, the colt’s dominance in the Run for the Roses was a matter of will — not pace, not speed. Indeed, legendary turf writer Damyon Runyon was dead wrong when he said, “The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet.” The way to bet, I was told, is to ignore speed and pace figures like the stuff growing hair in my refrigerator and focus instead on how a horse looks and how it behaves. Only by becoming an expert in body language can one hope to triumph at the windows, I was informed.

Then came the Preakness Stakes… and complete and total redemption for figure handicapping.

While Orb mania reached a fever pitch throughout cyberspace, I expressed concern about the condition of Shug McGaughey’s stable star on my May15 podcast, speculating that he was likely to regress in the Preakness and voicing concerns about his fair odds.

(Click on image to enlarge)

On that same broadcast, I also noted that I was impressed by the numbers on Mylute and particularly Oxbow, who I thought ran a bang-up race in the Derby

(For a snippet of my pre-Preakness thoughts on Orb and Oxbow, click HERE.)

When the race ran true to the numbers (at least my numbers) — Oxbow was the winner, Itsmyluckyday finished second, Mylute rallied for third and Orb straggled home a distant fourth — the “body language” crowd was quick to blame the Derby champ’s defeat on jockey Joel Rosario’s incompetence, the “dead” rail, the pace, George Bush (just a hunch), etc.

As for me, I gave silent thanks to Beyer, Quinn and Quirin and collected my superfecta winnings.

Monday Win Factor Reports

Coming soon... I hope.

Oxbow's Preakness pace wasn't soft

2013-05-24T07:03:00.000-07:00

Most of the discussion in the aftermath of Oxbow's Preakness Stakes victory involved either explaining away why Orb lost (dead rail) or downplaying why Oxbow won (easy pace). Even if you agree that both played a factor in the outcome, the absolute nature with which some convey these details does a disservice to the science of handicapping--inexact as it can be.

For Joel Cunningham's part on Triple Crown Insider's Preakness recap above, he notes that "Oxbow ran a very good race" before adding, "Orb didn't fire his best shot."

I agree with both those statements, and if you liked Oxbow at all--even if you didn't think he was the most likely winner or even a more likely winner than Orb--then you had to be thrilled with the 15.4-to-1 win price.

I liked what I saw from Oxbow in his Lecomte victory but was way off him by the Kentucky Derby following two hang jobs in the Risen Star and Rebel Stakes and a non effort in the Arkansas Derby.

There were signs of life in the Kentucky Derby, though, as many pointed out that Oxbow ran best of those near the blistering pace, and a softer pace in the Preakness figured to benefit him with Gary Stevens retaining the mount.

The key word there is "softer" which is a comparative term. Few would argue that the Preakness was a kinder pace than the Derby, but "softer" doesn't mean "soft." All three of Oxbow's wins have come in gate-to-wire fashion, and since his maiden win in his fourth career start, Oxbow is undefeated when making the lead early.

All that is to say we have a good baseline of the pace Oxbow is capable of handling and winning since he had done it twice before. His E1 (start to first call) and E2 (start to second call) pace ratings on Brisnet.com were 94-94 in his maiden win and 84-92 in his LeComte win.

Before Preakness, Oxbow had five previous races where at least one of those ratings (the E1 or E2) was 95+, and he lost all five of those races. In the Preakness, however, Oxbow popped a 96-105 en route to a victory in which he closed with a 114 rating.

I have a hard time calling Oxbow's Preakness pace "soft" or "easy" given that he ran faster than he had ever run before when winning yet this time still won. Plenty of credit for that is due to Racing Hall of Fame connections trainer D. Wayne Lukas and jockey Gary Stevens, who pushed the envelope just enough to get the best out of Oxbow at all points of call (114 LP rating!). Lukas tipped his hand all week, saying that Titletown Five would absolutely NOT be on the lead, and now we know the full effect of Lukas's plan.

How does this fit into how we handicap a race? I'm a broken record on this, but successful wagering is more about determining who can win (and the chances of that happening) than it is saying who will win. I dismissed Oxbow, but there was clearly a scenario in which he would win this race, and there was some chance of that happening. With the benefit of having seen it happening, his fair odds were probably more like 9-to-1 in the thought that what happened in the Preakness probably happens 10% of the time.

There were some poor judgments on my part not to include that conclusion among my possible scenarios, but that's why Lukas and Stevens are in the Hall of Fame and I'm writing a blog about it.

Solid Stakes Situations

2013-05-22T23:22:00.004-07:00

Pacing and trotting action ensues into deep spring with action from many divisions in the U.S. and business-torn Ontario. New Jersey Sires Stakes (NJSS) and Pennsylvania Sires Stakes (PASS) for soph pacers and trotters are flowing with glamour-boys and girls. And they rev up for the giant Art Rooney Pace and Lismore at Yonkers, while the elders are shaking things up at Hoosier, Harrah’s Philadelphia and Western Fair.

Of course, there are soph trotters of both sexes testing their division foes as they trot the long road to August. Those races will be covered in this week’s Hambletonian Trail blog, brought to you exclusively by TwinSpires and the Hambletonian Society.

Also, as we promised, our harness horses to watch (H2W) list from tracks around North America continues through the stakes season with hot prospects.

TwinSpires presents a special Dan Patch at Hoosier Park super bonus for May 25. CLICK HERE.

Other Hoosier offers ensue throughout the harness meet. Check out the Hoosier details here.

‘Patch’-work Pacers

The $200,000 Dan Patch at Hoosier Park on May 25 brings the top older pacers to Indiana before some head for Canada next week. The newest rage, of course, is Hurrikane Kingcole, who still has a lot to prove against these more experienced elders. But Rockincam has already proven to have the fury needed to make it a big season and he should love this track.

Also a danger, despite his post, is Aracache Hanover. He could handle the outside here and it may benefit his tactical side, as he may be able to find a good spot early and close on a lot of this speed.

‘Jersey’ Jaunts

Soph-colt-and-filly pacers bred in the Garden State go in round two of the New Jersey Sires Stakes for their divisions at the Meadowlands on Saturday, May 25. Leg two of this series follows through from last week’s episodes and for the colts we are staying with the choice we had in leg one, Rocnrolwilneverdie. He will be the outside contender over Johny Rock and Emeritus Maximus.

The second colt split may offer a few value plays to win. Rock Star may be the choice, but we give a shot to To Beach His Own. Trainer Ray Schnittker is in the bike for his budding star and this could be one of his steps into the limelight.

In the filly division (there is only one mile) we are going to try to beat Jerseylicious, the flaming hot gal that we nabbed as a longshot and gave to you live on Hambletonian day when she took a big stakes at two. Our value choice here is Authorize, who got a bum trip in the first leg and could come back strongly at a price.

Molson Pace Menu

The $150,000 Molson Pace Invitation at Western Fair Raceway has the connections of six horses accepting invitations to the event that is the track’s biggest race. Two-time defending champion and the richest pacer of all-time, Foiled Again will headline this year’s edition along with Aracache Hanover, State Treasurer, Versado, Keystone Velocity and Something For Doc. The Molson Pace Prep will take place Friday May 24 and the winner of that event will also receive an invite. The 12-race Molson Pace program will take place on May 31

The ‘Art’ Of Yonkers

A dozen three-year-olds are entered for the 23rd edition of Yonkers Raceway's Art Rooney Pace. That number of entrants makes for a pair of $40,000 eliminations Saturday night, May 25, with the first four finishers in each elim qualifying for the $275,000 final on June 1.

The dozen, in alphabetical order, are…Bet the Moon, Doctor Butch (a $30,000 supplemental entrant), Duel in the Sun, Good Day Mate, Just Bettor, Lonewolf Currier, Mach it So, Sir Cary's Z Tam, Source of Pride, Sunfire Blue Chip, Swift As a Shadow and Visa Viper.

The supplement, a Linda Toscano-trained pacer, is the morning-line choice in elim one but we’ll go with Mach It So with his inherent speed raring to make it three in a row on this half-mile oval. Then, Lonewolf Currier could make this small field wither by the fourth turn with a sweeping brush at a decent price for only six.

The companion event to the “Rooney” is the Lismore for three-year-old pacing fillies. It only attracted eight, so there will only be a final, worth $117,060, on June 1.

Sunday Spectacles

Harrah’s Philadelphia presents two star-studded fields, mare pacers in the $250,000 Betsy Ross Mares Invitational and male trotters in the $250,000 Maxie Lee Memorial Invitational on Sunday, May 26.

Some may argue that the femme pacing field is stronger than the male field, headed by seasoned frauleins Drop The Ball, Anndrovette and Rocklamation. On any given day each one could beat the other. The question about May 26 is how will the persnickity surface of Philly play? That won’t be a concern of the betting public, however, they will stick to current form and earnings and that means Anndrovette should be favored. It is difficult to assess before seeing where the crowd will lean but beware of Economy Terror, she is in her second race of the season and could be primed well to beat older foes; she should have a hellova season at four and this is a great place to start.

We’ve seen most of the older trotters in the “Lee” invitation, which features last week’s “Cutler” winner Sevuga and the red-hot Modern Family. Elder equine statesman Wishing Stone is all out in the U.S. this season so far but we have our eyes on the improving New York-bred Blacktuxwhitesocks. The three aforementioned guys are on the outside and although they mark speedier miles so far, that is not to say “Blacktux” cannot match them stride for stride and at a price.

H2W Legend

Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track to decide how you will use the information.

The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means that horse is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared.

An “ae” signals the horse is entered but on the also-eligible list (so it might not get into the race). Multi-horses may be listed in the same race.

Horses from previous lists that are not racing have a NR after the name on a separate line from dated entries.

Wagering on any of the H2W listed horses is based on your own judgment. Your handicapping skills should include decisions to wager to win, place, show or in exotics. If you have any questions about the H2W list, send them to us through the TwinSpires blog channel.

H2W

Buffalo

5/24/13, Ja’s Charmer R2; Berosis R4
5/25/13, Bombay Away R1; Coastal Highway R2; Dartmouth Hall R4; +Four Hoof Drive R5
Undercover Bro NR; Debs Girloffortune NR; In Good Hands NR

Cal Expo

5/25/13, +Ridgerson R9; Lebo Jones R6
Terror Time NR; Chevie Balboa NR

Hoosier

5/25/13, +Bellator R4
Jackets Required NR; Keep On Flirtin NR

Maywood

5/23/13, +Park Bug R8; Nack Brenlin R9; +Summer Party R10; +Primrose Path R10; +Hoosier Jetta R12
5/24/13, +Jack N Water R2; +Catch The Rapids ae R5Blueridgevalentino R13
Huga Yankee NR; Free To Scoot NR; Prime Escape NR

Meadows

3/25/13, +Marty’s Charm R1; +They Call Me Moon R2; American Gangster R11
Lebron Hall NR; Whatagamble NR; Smokin American NR

Northfield

5/22/13, + Rose Run Leah R4
5/25/13, +Lucky Brad R7; Destiny Rides R8

Pompano

5/25/13, +Bellator R4

Scarborough
5/24/13. Luvalicious R2; Can You Fly R4; Dvc Journey Home R6; Scootin Keefe R7; Allamerican Cheer R9

Scioto

5/23, +Frog Juice R 12
5/25/13, Lookinforadventure R6; Mybrothergeorge R7

Tioga

5/24/13, +Tiffany Mallone R2
5/25/13; +Strong Hope R6
5/26/13, Jk Geronimo R10
Oh No Three O NR; Stand Up Comic NR; Ramona Disomma NR; Rompaway Alvin NR

Vernon
5/25/13, +Joltin Duel R8
5/27, Millbrook Millie R6

Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 05/22 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio

2013-05-22T11:08:00.000-07:00

In the News & Notes segment, Derek Simon and Ed DeRosa recap the Preakness Stakes and discuss “the bounce” theory.

Then, in a special Racing History installment, Derek explains why 11 is greater than 10 — and how that relates to speed-figure handicapping.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 05/22 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio

Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

2013-05-19T16:19:00.000-07:00

A lot of bettors were excited about Mister Herbie in the “Cutler” final at the Meadowlands on May 18, sending him off around 6-5. We liked him, though not at that price, and if you were so inclined to pass due to that then you saved a few bucks since Mister Herbie was terrible, finishing ninth with no particular excuse.

On that same card we were correct about Rockin Amadeus, though just about everyone else turned out to support him also and he won the New Jersey Sires Stakes’ (NJSS) first leg for soph-pacing colts, paying $4.20. Our other colt choice, Rocnrollwillneverdie finished fourth in his NJSS split.

At Pocono on Sunday, May 19, soph-pacing colts bred in Pennsylvania (PASS) battled in four splits, each worth $62,587, still some of the largest sires-stakes purses in the country.

We caught the first PASS with Martini Hanover at $6.40. The second split saw our choice, Teresa's Beach, scratched. We were with everyone on the third episode as the return of Captaintreacherous was successful and he began his soph campaign paying $2.20. Our fourth choice, Bigrisk, finished third at 18-1.

For the soph-colt-and-filly trotters’ stakes, visit the Hambletonian Society’s special archive page for the Hambletonian Trail stories.

H2W

$34.20 Jj’s Current, Hoosier
$11.80 Rocket Fuel, Hoosier
$6.00 Redford Hall, Buffalo
$5.00 Rag Doll, Freehold
$4.90 Ace Boo Koo, Buffalo
$4.50 Haggin Oaks, Tioga
$4.40 Richerthanrayno, Hoosier
$3.00 Announcement N, Philadelphia

The following are the horses that finished second or third along with their post-time odds. Special notes on those finishes follow.

Seconds:

Kiasma (3-2), Buffalo; T’s Eelctric (5-1), Pompano; Marty’s Charm (7-2), Meadows; Henry Gram (11-1), Scioto

Thirds:

Smokin American (9-1), Meadows; Cowgirls Whisper (4-1), Lebanon; Nutmegs Cider (11-1), Tioga; Amazing Dot (6-1), Cal Expo

All adjustments for returnees to the list and additions will be in the Thursday blog.

Cashing Notes

Rocket Fuel at Hoosier defeated the favorite of the race, an exacta worth $29.40. Kiasma was second to Redford Hall at Buffalo, producing an exacta worth $10.20. T’s Electric was second at Pompano to the favorite, igniting a $53.40 exacta.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

News And Notes

Market Share, last year’s Hambletonian winner, returned to the track to prepare for his four-year-old campaign, winning a qualifier at the Meadowlands on May 18. His stable mate, the top soph-pacer of 2012, Heston Blue Chip also won that morning. Linda Toscano trains Market Share, who has not raced since winning the American National in early November of last year. “Heston,” of course, won the Breeders Crown.

Although the meet has been abbreviated to 20 programs, Kawartha Downs resumed racing on May 18. “We have dropped more than 50 per cent of racing and from $130,000 to $30,000 a week,” said a spokesman for the horsemen. “That is a lot less and it hurts. It does keep us involved in the game but it is a short-term solution to the problem. I guess you can say it isn’t great but it’s better than nothing.” Kawartha was about to be a victim of bulldozers when it was saved at the last minute by investors.

Trainer Rene Allard has been told that his entries will not accepted by the Meadowlands, which amounts to a ban for the Quebec native. No reason was given for Allard’s expulsion. Allard moved his operation to the United States from Canada and also races at Yonkers and Pocono Downs. He currently sits second in all of North America on the trainers' list with 173 races won.

Vernon Downs released the following information in response to inquiries about horses eligible to the $500,000 Empire Breeders Classic (EBC) three-year-old colt and filly trots. “The EBC will remain at Vernon Downs with a slight adjustment to the dates. The eliminations for these races will be moved two days later than originally scheduled and will be raced at Vernon on Sunday, June 2 with the finals the following Sunday, June 9. The June 2 card will be an afternoon post of 1:15 p.m. and the June 9 finals will be presented during a night card with first post at 6:45 p.m.

Googoo Gaagaa, the striking trotter, now four, with a pacing sire, did not get the 2013 season going very strongly. Then it was discovered that “Googoo” needed throat surgery to correct a problem that may have been the cause for his poor return to the race. There is no word on when he will return to the track but insiders tell us that he is doing fine after the operation.

Extraordinary Extras

Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

Every weekend as part of that blog we offer Balmoral Pick-4-and-win picks at the USTA’s Strategic Wagering Program page which includes suggested win bets.

Connect to Twitter and follow Frank and Ray Cotolo for up-to-the-minute suggestions on wagers at many harness raceways. Then, wager from your TwinSpires accounts.

Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog.

Cartoons by Thom Pye

The Baltimore Bounce

2013-05-17T12:57:00.000-07:00

Horses don’t bounce.

At least that’s the position I’ve always taken when arguing with speed-figure handicappers and others who believe that a single race can “gut” a horse — à la Rachel Alexandra in the 2010 Woodward.

Frankly, I feel the same way about “bouncing” that I do about global warming. I don’t doubt the phenomenon — thoroughbred racehorses clearly have good and bad days (just ask Itsmyluckyday) and statistics show that the Earth’s temperature is, in fact, rising slightly — but I am very dubious of the conclusions that many draw from this data.

No, I do not think that man (in the general sense) controls the fate of the planet. To paraphrase a line from my favorite holiday movie “It’s a Wonderful Life”: In the whole vast configuration of things, I'd say man is nothing but a scurvy little spider.

We can’t prevent earthquakes, tornadoes, monsoons or even the occasional afternoon sprinkle, but somehow we have the power to destroy the planet? Please. (The power to destroy ourselves is another matter, of course.)

Likewise, I think it is generally foolhardy to say, as followers of The Sheets and other speed rating services often do, that a certain pattern of numbers indicates a horse that is “over the top,” or due to run a poor race. And I think it is particularly foolish to assert that there is an optimum number of days between races that allows these “gutted” animals to recover — or not.

The fact is, when one is dealing with a finite data series, which, for the most part, speed figures are — horses can only go so fast or so slow — what we see from animals that regress after a particularly impressive performance is more often a return to the mean than it is a reaction to a hard race.

Did pitcher Philip Humber of the Chicago White Sox “bounce” when he gave up nine earned runs in five innings on April 26, 2012 — a mere five days after he became just the 21^st player in the 135-year history of Major League Baseball to throw a perfect game?

Few of sound mind and body would argue that he did.

Through May 11, Humber has a 5.34 career earned run average and is 0-8 this year. What happened on April 26, 2012 was simply a return to the norm; in Humber’s case, a return to mediocrity.

Now, having said this, I think it is equally obvious that greatness, at least as it relates to sports, can be defined as an athlete (or team) that consistently produces outstanding results. Most people know that Wilt Chamberlain is the only player in NBA history to score 100 points in a game, but how many people know that Chamberlain scored 60 or more 32 times (yes, that’s a three followed by a two)?

I can already hear the grumbling: Fine, fine… thanks for the sports history lesson, Poindexter. But what do Humber and Chamberlain have to do with horseracing and bouncing?

Everything, as it turns out.

I doubt many racing fans would disagree with me when I say that winning the Triple Crown is among the toughest achievements in all of sports. After all, only 11 horses have pulled off the coveted Kentucky Derby-Preakness-Belmont Stakes trifecta and it’s been 35 years since the last one (Affirmed in 1978).

What all 11 of those horses had in common was consistent brilliance — at least during their Triple Crown run. At no point was this more evident than in 1973, when Secretariat set a track record in each of the Triple Crown contests (I don’t care what Pimlico officials say).

Similarly, Sir Barton (1919), the first Triple Crown champion, set a track record in the Belmont Stakes; Citation (1948) destroyed the track record at Garden State in the Jersey Derby, a prep for the Belmont (Citation also raced six times in 61 days prior to his 8-length score in the “Test of Champions”); and Whirlaway (1941) set a track record in the Run for the Roses.

The other greats that won the Triple Crown also showed remarkable consistency.

This got me to thinking: Could one use this factor to determine whether or not a horse is a viable Triple Crown contender?

My gut feeling is that Derby winners possessing recent speed figures within a fairly restricted range probably outperform those that show a greater variance of performance. Hence, I came up with the following chart:

(Click on image to enlarge)

It appears that my hypothesis may be correct (the sample is far too small to be definitive). Horses that improved their Brisnet speed figure by more than five points in the Kentucky Derby (compared to their previous start) are just 1-for-7 in Maryland since 1992. All other Derby winners are 7-of-13. (Using the Beyer numbers produces a 1-for-9 and 7-for-11 ledger, respectively.)

This begs the question: Are Triple Crown winners the exception to the rule? Based on the following chart, not so much:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Of course, I had to use the old Daily Racing Form speed ratings for this one, but even utilizing that simple formula (100 minus the fifths of a second the winner’s time was off the track record minus beaten lengths) — and without using track variants — it is clear that even Triple Crown champs tend to record consistent speed figs. In fact, Secretariat, one of the chart “exceptions” actually set a track record in his race prior to the Wood, which was arguably the worst race of his career (explaining his 20-point ascension in Louisville).

So where does this leave Orb? Well, honestly, it makes him a bit vulnerable — especially if any of the other Preakness contenders improve.

Will Orb, like Secretariat, be the exception to the "greatness rule"? Believers will get even odds or less to find out.

Weekend Wagers

Coming soon.

The beat goes on among a common refrain

2013-05-17T10:04:00.000-07:00

The Triple Crown Insider Preakness preview echoes how many feel about this year's race.

After waxing poetic about many of Orb's eight foes, Joel Cunningham finally gets the question point blank from Jon Siegel, "Does Orb win the Preakness?"

"I think Orb wins, Jon; he just keeps getting better."

There are reasons why any of the nine horses in this year's Preakness could win, but there's little disagreement among racing's cognoscenti that Orb is the most likely to do so. I pegged his fair odds of winning at even money (50/50, a coin flip), and I'd play him to win at 6-to-5 or better.

Unfortunately, I think he'll be 4-to-5, which means no win bet, but a projected underlay in one pool doesn't mean there won't be opportunities elsewhere. The $1.5-million guaranteed all-stakes Pick 4, for instance, features competitive races in which I expect at least one race to produce a $20+ payout.

The 2004 Preakness Pick 4 paid 751-to-1 with 7-to-10 Smarty Jones completing a sequence of two second choices and the $24.80 Mr. O'Brien. Even if you had spent $250 singling Smarty Jones to get there, you still managed to turn 7-to-10 into 2-to-1, and a similar situation could occur on Saturday with Orb. (Plus TwinSpires.com players have a shot at an extra $10,000).

Vertically speaking things get tough. Wheeling Orb in the exacta doesn't make a lot of sense because only Titletown Five will provide the possibility of a rainmaker. $8 to win on Orb is likely to pay $14-$16, and several of the $1 exactas will pay less than that. However, if you're willing to toss a few (as I am) then you could do OK. I'll watch the board, but if any horse not named Departing or Titletown Five is paying $20+ underneath Orb then that will be a bet for me. $6 to win on Orb is in the $10-$11 range, so taking that six and trying to get $20 (but maybe even settling for $15) seems fair value to me.

The other side of all this is that if Orb is an underlay in the win pool then there is likely an overlay or two as well--especially since both Departing, Mylute, Oxbow, and Titletown Five are likely underlays as well. Part of my strategy with singling Orb in most multi-race plays will be to leverage overlays in the Preakness win pools. I.e., I think a horse like Mylute will be more overbet in the win pool than other pools.

This approach inhibits the chance at a BIG SCORE, but with only 9 horses in the race, few total throwouts, and a legitimate favorite the chance for a BIG SCORE was mitigated, anyway. I'm happy to grind a profit and be ready with guns blazing for the Triple Crown try in three weeks.

Horse by horse Preakness analysis with fair odds line

2013-05-16T08:06:00.000-07:00

I’m not the type that’s big into having to pick one horse as the winner of each race. I understand why it’s done for major events, but even though I’m calling Itsmyluckyday my pick to win the Preakness Stakes (as he was in the Derby) it’s not like I think he’s the only horse who can win. Heck, he isn’t even the most likely winner!

So, in James Scully-style here is a list of reasons why each of the Preakness Stakes entrants could win the middle jewel of American Thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown along with the odds I think each has of doing so. Also included is a reason why they won’t win.

#1 Orb (even money)
PROS: His Kentucky Derby was a tour de force that made his 5.4-to-1 odds in that race seem like an absolute gift. He was obviously best in that race, so why should any of the five also rans from two weeks ago turn the tables on him here? There are the three new shooters, but any of them would have to improve to come close to matching Orb’s accomplishments.

CONS: The rail post position is by no means a death knell, but it does provide fewer winners at Pimlico than the odds indicate it should, AND only one Preakness winner (Tabasco Cat in 1994) has scored from the rail since 1961

#2 Goldencents (12-to-1)
PROS: His Santa Anita Derby is easily among the fastest races any of these have run, including Orb, and the Kentucky Derby was his only bad race. If you chalk that up to some combination of being too close to the pace/not liking the sloppy, sealed track, then he easily fits among these.

CONS: Regardless of the Kentucky Derby excuses, it’s extremely difficult to bounce back from that kind of performance against similar Grade 1 company, and the same questions surrounding him in the Derby remain here—mainly distance and pace concerns.

#3 Titletown Five (96-to-1)
PROS: This is the Lloyd Christmas of the Preakness field in that he’s happy there’s a chance (though it is about 1 in a 100 instead of 1 in a million). A win would be a surprise, but not inconceivable if he takes command from whomever falters on the pace and everyone around him misfires and he just gets too far gone to catch.

CONS: The only race remotely fast enough came against maidens sprinting at Churchill Downs. Fast paces didn’t help in either the Louisiana Derby or Derby Trial, but just don’t see the right dynamic unfolding for him to get the job done.

#4 Departing (10-to-1)
PROS: Getting good (better) at the right time and could peak in Preakness considering connections have pointed toward this race since a wide-trip third in Louisiana Derby behind Revolutionary and Mylute. Won Illinois Derby from post 13 and could get jump on Orb here depending on what that foe needs to do from the rail.

CONS: The last two races were nice but another move forward will be necessary to contend here, and he might be overbet as most people’s alternative to Orb. He had bullet workouts going into both Louisiana and Illinois Derbys but far more pedestrian drills for this challenge.

#5 Mylute (12-to-1)
PROS: Has only won twice, but when he’s on he’s on, as both those wins have come by a combined 13 lengths, and last two races after a poor three-year-old debut have been good.

CONS: was running “with” Orb late in Derby and could not keep pace and don’t see how that changes in the Preakness. Similarly seemed to have the Louisiana Derby won, but Revolutionary bested him late there as he did in Derby when third (with Normandy Invasion between them).

#6 Oxbow (20-to-1)
PROS: Of all the horses close to the pace in the Kentucky Derby, he fared the best, and that kind of tactical command will certainly help in the more compact Preakness field. Only two wins were gate-to-wire but doesn’t seem to want the lead anymore. Maybe here with stablemate Titletown Five supposedly rating?

CONS: Doesn’t want to win. Looked like the winner in both the Risen Star and Rebel Stakes before not getting the job done in both races. Jockey Gary Stevens even thought to himself ‘for a few seconds” that he might win his fourth Derby, but that didn’t come to pass. Just not the type of horse I want to back in the win spot.

#7 Will Take Charge (20-to-1)
PROS: Other than a dreadful Kentucky Jockey Club, seems to fire every time. It’s rarely good enough to win (especially against top-level competition), but you’re going to get a run out of him, as you did in the Derby before he was stopped by Verrazano. Will make a run again here.

CONS: Interesting to note that best races came closer to the pace, and he actually set the pace when eventually second in the Springboard Mile. All that is to say, he’s too slow for this level of competition, and the big run late is mostly just an illusion. He could end up in the exotics, but isn’t a win candidate for me at the expected price.

#8 Govenor Charlie (16-to-1)
PROS: Looked like he could be any kind when rattling off consecutive wins in February-March, including a five-length romp in the Sunland Derby. Both wins came after sitting off the pace and kicking clear after a nice middle move, and that’s the type of trip that could win this—especially if Orb gets too far back early.

CONS: The Preakness will be his first race in eight weeks and just the fourth of his career, and he’ll need to improve dramatically assuming the other graded stakes winners fire even just a par effort. That’s not impossible for a trainer who’s won this race five times, but all five of those wins did come with horses who started in the Derby.

#9 Itsmyluckyday (10-to-1)
PROS: The fastest horse going into the Derby took another step backward when 15th after what started out as a perfect trip. As they turned onto the backside I really thought he could win the race if he had any punch, which he didn’t. Still think his two wins to start his three-year-old season can beat these, but it’s getting increasingly harder to bet on him running back to either of those races based on his last two efforts. From a positive angle standpoint, Johnny V. picks up the mount, and trainer Eddie Plesa fires 21% when racing third off a layoff.

CONS: Similar to Goldencents, it’s hard to back a horse coming off such a dreadful effort coming right back against similar class. There were questions about his distance limitations going into the Derby, and that race certainly did nothing to dispel them.

My strategy at this point will be to play Itsmyluckyday across the board (assuming 10-to-1) and key him in exotics underneath Orb, but all that is subject to what happens in the multi-race wagers I play. Good luck!

Foes Out In Full Force

2013-05-15T21:43:00.000-07:00

Some big names from the past and present are involved in this weekend’s harness features around North America. Older pacers and trotters of the first degree meet at the Meadowlands and New Jersey Sires Stakes (NJSS) and Pennsylvania Sires Stakes (PASS) for soph pacers bring to the limelight some of the cast of this year’s glamour-boy-and-girl pacers.

Of course, there are soph trotters from both divisions of sexes on Friday, May 17, testing their divisions at three racetracks. Those races will be covered in this week’s Hambletonian Trail blog, brought to you exclusively by TwinSpires and the Hambletonian Society.

Speaking of exclusive, more harness horses to watch (H2W) appear on our weekly list from tracks around North America.

As well, the TwinSpires’ 10-percent bonuses for winning the Pick 4 on Saturday nights at Hoosier Park throughout the harness meet, and double points plus (click here).

Check out the Hoosier details here.

‘Cutler’ Crew

The stalwart older trotters grind away in the $180,000 Arthur J. Cutler Memorial Final at the Meadowlands on May 18. In the elims, Wishing Stone—the globetrotting veteran now handled by Ron Burke—won as the top choice and Daryl Bier’s wonderhorse Modern Family continued his super season. Mister Herbie’s season began well, with a second, and the Millers’ Sevruga was rushed early, losing the steps he needed to topple “Stone.”

The four-year-olds, members of last year’s Hambo group, have some work to do to keep up with the older few here, so we will let them all go so we can zero in on a good bet—Mister Herbie.

We liked Mister Herbie last week even though he needed that race to rev up for a season of jousting in the big leagues. He will probably be third choice or worse under the circumstances and those may be the best odds we will see for him in a long time.

Mature Pacing Men

The $100,000 Meadowlands Maturity for four-year-old male pacers holds a star-studded debut on May 18. The return of A Rocknroll Dance is part of the agenda, along with debuts by Bolt The Duer and Dynamic Youth. Two of the cast already have sub-1:50 miles to their season. They have all challenged one another when they were glamour boys but in horse racing the time between seasons could be an eternity. Look at Hurrikane Kingcole, who we all loved at three, when he was too fast for his own fortune. At four, already, he has won one and been second in two outings. Considering that experience, he will be favored over the more popular names from 2012.

Those names are yet to be etched as successful at four. A Rocknroll Dance is questionable, since his soundness was an issue in the last half of his soph season. Bolt The Duer was an opportunist at three but he could be better at four if he is more aggressive. Mel Mara played co-star to the aforementioned and others in a crop which was extremely competitive.

For instance, Sweet Lou is here for his second mile at four. Who could forget how he was annointed as the soph champ last year before proving he was better matched at three than he was at two? Hillybilly Hanover may have grown more legs and Dynamic Youth was always a threat, though he rarely won a battle. And Warrawee Needy has come back at four with firepower, sending flares to his foes with a 1:48.3 win already this year.

No sound bettor would pile money on the side of any one entry here due to the plethora of questions these four-year-olds present in 2013. All we can suggest is taking good notes for future contests, while on the betting front it is highly possible some huge overlays are hiding but may only be answered in retrospect. We liked “Hurrikane” last year and we like him now but he is likely to be the choice in this event.

Glamour Bashes

First, we visit the Meadowlands on May 18 for NJSS. Sophomore pacers are ready to rock and literally, many are Rocknroll Hanover products as the hoof beat goes on, so to speak. Johny Rock is here for his second roll around the oval and Breeders Crown-winner Rockin Amadeus steps into his three-year-old skin for some stakes exercise. Lets Rock Together, Rock Star, He Rocks The Moon and Rocky Mountain Guy assist in making the 10-horse NJSS colt field.

Rockin Amadeus has every right to win at first crack and with a bit of luck the crowd will favor Johny Rock, since he has traveled once already and showed winning ways. Watch the odds and beware of Lets Rock Together for any upsets that may surface. “Together” is showing signs of being a true player this season and may be disregarded by the crowd.

More rocking, so to speak, shows up in division two and we like Rocnrolwilneverdie to topple the Tony Alagna couple, especially Emeritus Maximus, that is two for two so far.

Next, to Pennsylvania Sires Stakes (PASS) at Pocono on May 19 for soph-colt pacers. No doubt the focus here is the return of Captaintreacherous. He debuts at three in the third PASS of the program and comes from a 1:51 qualifier. His competition seems moot here, in one of four $62,587 state-bred contests. How can we bet him and how can we bet against him? It is up to Captaintreacherous to prove he won’t be dominating this division and we have to watch a few to see if he has what it takes to be the monstrous colt he was at two.

In the first division we like Martini Hanover, who got his first race at three under his belt and should be raring to go in this, though you will have to judge the value in odds.

In the second division we like Teresa’s Beach, who should have gotten the kinks out of his frosh campaign. We liked his first race at three and give him a good shot here, certainly a better one than we expect the public to offer.

In round four, we will suggest Bigrisk over Twilight Bonfire, that one debuting in the division. Bigrisk seems ready and should be an overlooked contender.

H2W Legend

An “ae” signals the horse is entered but on the also-eligible list (so it might not get into the race). Multi-horses may be listed in the same race.

Horses from previous lists that are not racing have a NR after the name on a separate line from dated entries.

Wagering on any of the H2W listed horses is based on your own judgment. Your handicapping skills should include decisions to wager to win, place, show or in exotics. If you have any questions about the H2W list, send them to us through the TwinSpires blog channel.

H2W

Buffalo
5/17/11, Ace Boo Koo R11
5/18/13, +Redford Hall R1; +Kiasma R1; Four Hoof Drive R1; Undercover Bro R2; +Ideal Affair R10
Debs Girloffortune NR; In Good Hands NR

Cal Expo
5/18/13, +Amazin Dot R8
Terror Time NR; Chevie Balboa NR; Ridgerson NR

Freehold
5/17/13, Rag Doll R1; +Where’s Harry R5; Bronx Hanover R8; +Beach Burn R10
5/18/13, +Bell’s Panacea R3

Lookout Stokk Zone NR; Smooth Finish R11; Padre Manuel NR; Ironstone Wiz NR; Pacey Deucey NR

Hoosier
5/17/13, +Richerthanrayno R5; +Velocity Vespa ae R12
5/18/13, Jj’s Current R1; +Rocket Fuel R12; Jackets Required R13
Keep On Flirtin NR

Lebanon
5/18/13, +Black Blitz R4; Cowgirls Whisper R6

Maywood
5/17/13, +Fox Valley Bobbijo R2; Jack N Water R4; Hoosier Jetta R6; Tuff Longport R14
Huga Yankee NR; Free To Scoot NR; Primrose Path NR; Summer Party NR; Prime Escape NR; Park Bug NR; Catch The Rapids NR

Meadows
3/17/13, They Call Me Moon R2; Lebron Hall R5; Whatagamble R6; Smokin American R9; Marty’s Charm R11

Northfield
5/15/13, Lucky Brad R2
5/17/13, +Redmeansgo R2; Rose Run Leah R3; +Whats Your Fantasy R4

Philadelphia
5/18/13, Announcement N R8; We Will See R10

Pocono
5/19/13,+ Night Train Shane R1
Wisher NR

Pompano
5/18/13, +Pembroke Big Bo R2; +T’s Electric R4
Bellator NR; Joltin Duel NR

Scioto
5/18/13, +Henry Gram R2
Panskrit NR; Frog Juice NR

Tioga
5/17/13; Haggin Oaks R8
5/18/13, +Nutmegs Cider R6; Oh No Three O R6; Strong Hope R8
5/19/13, +Stand Up Comic R13

Tiffany Malone NR; Ramona Disomma NR; Jk Geronimo NR; Rompaway Alvin NR

Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 05/15 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio

2013-05-15T11:03:00.000-07:00

TwinSpires' Derek Simon discusses all the latest Preakness news with Ed DeRosa of Brisnet.com. Among the topics are: Orb’s scintillating recent workout, Departing’s status as the likely second choice in Maryland and fair-value exacta combinations.

In the U. of Bet/Racing History segment, Derek discusses the dangers of falling in love, as well as the performance requirements of the Triple Crown.

Lastly, in the Handicapping segment, Derek offers a horse-by-horse analysis of the (likely) Preakness field.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 05/15 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio

Enter the Preakness exacta matrix

2013-05-14T12:15:00.000-07:00

Anyone can make a morning line for projected win odds, but making one for exacta will pays takes a little more finesse, though I did take some liberties to make it easier while still providing guidance as to where the money will go in the exacta pool:

1. Orb is the overwhelming choice to win at 4-to-5 in the top spot (odds account for 21% takeout in the exact pool). He's also the most likely second-place finisher with 24.76% of that pool. It's an interesting take because the Derby winner has 72% of the money in the exacta pool but probably won't even have half the place pool. Thus, betting Orb to place is a much better bet than wheeling him up and down in the exacta.

2. No surprise that all other horses besides Orb are more likely to finish second than first. Departing is the second choice to win with his price based on exacta will pays at $11.60.

3. I lumped Goldencents, Itsmyluckyday, Mylute, Oxbow, and Will Take Charge together as co-third choices ($16.40) then made Govenor Charlie the eighth choice ($26.40) and Titletown Five the longest shot ($34.80).

4. The big opinion here is that Departing will be closer in price to the third tier of Derby also rans than to the Derby winner. A chalk-chalk exacta comes back 9-to-1, but Departing on top is a much more robust 21-to-1.

5. Because the biggest jump is from Orb to Departing and not Departing to the next tier, things really blow up if you get Orb out of the exacta. Regardless of your wagering style, it's an interesting phenomena to note because the multis are probably going to be the same way. Whereas at first it appeared that beating Departing might provide some value if you liked Orb, this shows that if you're willing to bet against Orb, don't let Departing beat you.

Enjoy!

Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

2013-05-11T22:46:00.000-07:00

This past weekend you had to go out of your way to find a winner from this department, as the weekend’s offerings, in general, missed their marks, mostly to favorites. Keeping good notes on our Thursday blogs and following through is what worked this week if you wanted to cash some great tickets. We begin with the successes. (Photo on right by Thom Pye)

One of our entries in the horses-to-watch list (H2W) left after the nominal second appearance. Carmelita’s Girl was not on this past Thursday’s H2W at Northfield. The horse went to post on May 10 and won, paying $140.60. If you have been following H2W horses the week after they leave the list, you have had a number of great winners.

Also, from last week, we were third with Fred And Ginger in the Van Rose Memorial at Pocono against Golden Receiver. Fred And Ginger went to the Meadowlands on May 11 and just beat our choice, Hurrikane Kingcole, the favorite. Fred And Ginger paid $22.40 and atop “Hurrikane,” who turned out to be the favorite (something we did not count upon happening), presented an exacta worth $65.20.

This week, we liked Mister Herbie in one of the “Cutler” elims and we mentioned he had to beat the “now horse” Modern Family. He was second to Modern Family and that exacta paid $11.60.

We were right about one of the Woodbine finals in that the favorites could be beaten but in The Diplomat Final our outside contender finished third at 21-1 to a 6-1 shot, both beating the two top choices.

For the soph-colt-and-filly trotters’ stakes, visit the Hambletonian Society’s special archive page for the Hambletonian Trail stories.

H2W

$22.20 Sun On The Rocks, Cal Expo
$12.40 Dontgetinskyway, Buffalo
$8.40 Outta The Red, Cal Expo
$4.80 Dreaming Of Amy, Cal Expo
$4.80 River Of Faith, Maywood
$4.60 Vyce, Raceway
$3.00 Hillbilly Hanover, Pocono

The following are the horses that finished second or third along with their post-time odds. Special notes on those finishes follow.

Seconds:

Wisher (5-2), Pocono; Rocket Fuel (10-1), Hoosier; Wingull (6-5), Pompano; Fireyourguns (4-5), Buffalo

Thirds:

Pacific Prince (3-1), Buffalo; Debs Girloffortune (29-1), Buffalo; Redmeansgo (21-1), Northfield; Fox Valley Bobbijo (19-1), Maywood; Chevie Balboa (2-1), Cal Expo; Redford Hall (1-1), Buffalo

All adjustments for returnees to the list and additions will be in the Thursday blog.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

News And Notes

Our big TwinSpires Players’ Pool Hambletonian winner in 2011, Broad Bahn, was set to return to the races for a career as an older trotter but things have not turned out well. He was at stud in New York in 2012 but now will be heading for Europe to join the stable of Stig Johansson in Stockholm. His owner, Leif Alber, said he will take the trotter to Sweden to address some physical issues the horse has developed. “Johansson is one of the best trainers in the world,” Alber said, “ and if somebody can solve the problem, I believe he is the man.” Broad Bahn will be on the same flight as one of his former foes, Take My Picture, since that one is going to race in this year’s Elitlopp.

Joe Holloway’s enthusiasm for his filly pacer, Shebestingin, remains as she comes into her sophomore season after a rest from suffering an injury that cut short her two-year-old season. Since her return, Shebestingin (pronounced She-be-stingin), she has won three of four starts. Her only loss came by a neck to Jerseylicious, who won last year’s Sweetheart Pace on Hambletonian day (we tweeted that winner while covering the races at the Meadowlands) and is undefeated in eight starts this season. Shebestingin’s stakes schedule includes the Valley Forge, Mistletoe Shalee, Breeders Crown and Matron.

“We were high on her last year,” said Holloway, who trains Shebestingin. “The reason I got her ready so early [this year] is she’s pretty inexperienced. I wanted to get a few starts under her belt … What are you going to do, wait until June and start up; it’s tough to train one down that tight. Now it’s a lot easier. She’s already tight; I can back off a couple weeks … She’s not going to race until the New York Sire Stakes [June 9] at Tioga. She’ll get two solid weeks off and then I’ll qualify her. Then it gets hot and heavy.”

With Freehold closing for the summer and the major stakes visiting Mohawk and Pocono, the Meadowlands has structured several late-closing series to offer Freehold horsemen classes for their horses during the month of June. Events will be available for trotters, pacing mares and pacing horses and geldings who have made a minimum of six starts at Freehold in 2013 or are classified as C-2 at the Meadowlands as of May 27. Winners of over $30,000 in 2013 are ineligible. There will be two $10,000 legs and a $20,000 added final for each throughout the month of June.

Extraordinary Extras

Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

Every weekend as part of that blog we offer Balmoral Pick-4-and-win picks at the USTA’s Strategic Wagering Program page which includes suggested win bets.

Connect to Twitter and follow Frank and Ray Cotolo for up-to-the-minute suggestions on wagers at many harness raceways. Then, wager from your TwinSpires accounts.

Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog.

Cartoons by Thom Pye

Kentucky Derby Recap & Triple Crown Preview

2013-05-11T08:49:00.004-07:00

The Effect of Pace

I talked a lot about the effect that pace can have on the outcome of a race prior to the Kentucky Derby and I think the Derby itself graphically illustrated some of the points I made — or tried to make.

Of particular interest to me was Vyjack, who entered the 139^th Run for the Roses after recording two subpar early speed rations (ESRs) in the Grade I Wood and the Grade III Gotham.

Although poor ESRs don’t necessarily entail Derby irrelevance — horses that earned a positive ESR in their latest prep went winless for the sixth year in a row this year, but Golden Soul did hit the board — they can seriously compromise the chances of certain horses.

As it turned out, Vyjack was that kind of horse.


(Click on image to enlarge)

Though the son of Into Mischief is clearly a closer (say that five times fast), notice that he was within three lengths of the leader at the first call in four of his five races prior to the Derby. However, he was able to establish that forward position by running behind some awfully soft fractions (witness all the red ESRs)… which is why and how his troubles began.

Let me explain: The Kentucky Derby, you see, typically features a -10 ESR, meaning that for a horse like Vyjack to be within three lengths of the lead at the first call, it would need to record an ESR of about -7.

Vyjack had never earned an ESR that low; in fact, his lowest ESR prior to the first Saturday in May was a -5, which he recorded on Dec. 9. And that race produced the worst late speed ration (LSR) of the gelding’s career to that point — despite the fact that he won impressively that day.

So what happened in Louisville?

Well, Vyjack established his typical position early — he was 3 ½ lengths back at the first call — but either the horse, or the jockey (Garrett Gomez), or both, got suckered by an abnormally fast pace (the -16 ESR recorded by pacesetter Palace Malice was the second-lowest since 1896); as a result, Vyjack started much faster, relatively speaking, than he was accustomed to and backed up like a public restroom at a chili cook-off.

Now, don’t get me wrong: horses can and do perform well even when they are taken out of their comfort zone… but they are the exception, not the rule.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Handicapping the Triple Crown

Once, as I reclined on an easy chair, sipping a Michelob Ultra (gotta watch the carbs), with a copy of the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances spread out on my lap, I was asked to explain what I was doing. Smiling, I took another swig of beer and attempted the impossible.

“I’m handicapping; trying to pick the winner of a horse race,” I said. “I love crunching the numbers: the trainer/jockey stats, speed and pace figures — the whole nine yards. It’s a great thrill to select a horse and then watch it win, especially at long odds. Yesterday, for example, I liked the…”

I stopped. Clearly, the Wal-Mart security guard was not a racing fan; nor, I gathered, were the majority of passing shoppers, who looked at me like they’d never seen a guy in a bathrobe handicapping races in the furniture department before.

Needless to say, I haven’t been within 100-150 yards of that Wal-Mart since — I can’t remember precisely what the court order mandates — but I still like to relax when I handicap. And, with Orb’s quest for the Triple Crown beginning in earnest next Saturday, now seems like a good time to share my bathrobe betting approach to the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

PREAKNESS STAKES

Where: Pimlico Racecourse (Baltimore, Maryland).

Race Distance: 1-3/16 miles (9-1/2 furlongs).

The Preakness Stakes is run just two weeks after the Kentucky Derby and often features a large contingent of Derby runners. Not surprisingly, these horses tend to do very well in Maryland, making the Preakness the most formful of the Triple Crown events. The numbers:

* Since 1932 (when the order of the Triple Crown series was at last set), 30 of 72 Preakness winners (41.7 percent) had previously annexed the Kentucky Derby, good for an 10.76 percent return on investment (ROI).

* In the history of the Preakness Stakes (dating back to 1873), favorites have won 69 times (51 percent) and returned approximately $2.32 for every $2 wagered, a 16 percent ROI.

* Over the last 17 years, eight horses improved their latest Beyer figure by five points or more while winning the Run for the Roses. Of those, only one — Silver Charm in 1997 — went on to capture the Preakness.

* 10 of last 12 Preakness winners paid less than $9 to win.

Bottom Betting Line: In direct contrast to the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness is all about established form. Sure, improving horses can win — witness Bernardini in 2006 — but, for the most part, Preakness victors are horses that have already proven their quality. Thus, it is wise to start one’s Preakness handicapping by examining the Derby starters in the field.

Try to determine which of them were helped or hindered by the way the race was run in Louisville, as Preakness history is replete with form reversals — both positive and negative — resulting from a change of tactics from one Triple Crown race to the next. For instance, after many criticized Gary Stevens for moving too soon into hot fractions in the 2001 Kentucky Derby captured by Monarchos, the veteran jockey kept Point Given well off a much slower pace two weeks later and won for fun in Baltimore.

BELMONT STAKES

Where: Belmont Park (Elmont, New York).

Race Distance: 1-1/2 miles (12 furlongs).

The oldest (it’s been run since 1867) and longest (1-1/2 miles) of the Triple Crown contests, the Belmont Stakes takes place three weeks after the Preakness. In 1973, it provided the backdrop for what was arguably the greatest performance in Thoroughbred racing history, when Secretariat won by 31 lengths in two minutes and 24 seconds — a time that has never been equaled.

Some interesting facts about the Belmont:

* Although it’s been called “The Test of Champions,” recent winners of the Belmont Stakes haven’t exactly reminded racing fans of Citation or Seattle Slew.

* A few recent bombs notwithstanding, the Belmont Stakes has actually been relatively formful, as the post time favorite has won 55 of 130 runnings of the race (42.3 percent).

* Only three of the past 14 Preakness winners who competed in the Belmont posed for pictures again in NY (Tabasco Cat in 1994, Point Given in 2001 and Afleet Alex in 2005).

Bottom Betting Line: Value is the name of the wagering game in the Belmont. Though favorites have performed well in the final leg of the Triple Crown, they have, as a rule, been horribly overbet, leading to a loss of about 22 cents on the dollar. Worse yet, odds-on choices are just 12 of 31 overall and 0 for 7 since 1979. Hence, it is imperative to look for horses that appear better than their quoted odds, i.e. overlays.

Also, be sure to watch all the contenders’ races leading up to the Belmont and eliminate runners that seem unable to relax or those that are excessively fractious at the gate. Several high-profile Belmont busts, like War Emblem and Smarty Jones, exhibited these toxic traits before attempting to take a bite out of the Big Apple — and all proved rotten to the core.

Final Derby thoughts and what Orb's win means for racing

2013-05-10T07:54:00.000-07:00

As the Kentucky Derby aftermath gives way to Preakness chatter, the story lines for the second jewel of American Thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown are becoming fairly well established with Orb's quest to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978 certainly the main event.

Racing Hall of Fame trainer Claude R. "Shug" McGaughey is getting the bulk of attention among Orb's connections following the Derby win, but I expect the spotlight to shine brighter on co-owner Ogden Mills "Dinny" Phipps if Orb returns to New York with a chance at racing immortality. Phipps co-owns and co-bred Orb with his cousin, Stuart "no nickname" Janney.

In praising his trainer not only for the Derby win but also a fantastic career, Phipps said McGaughey does things "the right way," which implies that some don't. I was disappointed that the chairman of The Jockey Club, which has incredible power and influence in the Sport of Kings, used racing's biggest pulpit to tell the world that racing has some undesirables.

That's no secret, of course, but there is no single person in America in better position than Phipps to do something about it. If there are people doing it the wrong way--as his praise of McGaughey suggested--then what is The Jockey Club doing about it? Janney, by the way, is vice chairman.

Speaking of Phipps and The Jockey Club, he is a big reason America's Best Racing exists, and his commitment to promoting racing should be commended from all corners. He used the aforementioned influence to revitalize that part of the NTRA's mission, and while that initiative certainly doesn't deserve all the credit for increased Derby ratings, it'd be tough to argue that it didn't at least contribute to it.

All that said, it will be interesting to see Orb's future plans in light of the connections' commitment to promoting racing (in addition to all Phipps has done, Janney is a lifelong supporter, Shug is always generous with his time and beloved by the media, and the trainer's son, Chip, is a Brand Ambassador for ABR).

It can only be a good thing, then, that a breeder-owner who has committed so much to promoting the sport is in control of the career of its most popular athlete.

We're told time and again that racing needs its Triple Crown stars to race beyond their three-year-old years, so what an opportunity for racing to have Orb in the hands of someone so committed to the sport's promotion. The last non-gelded dual classic winner to race as a four-year-old was Real Quiet in 1999. Charismatic, Point Given, War Emblem, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Big Brown, and I'll Have Another all retired following their three-year-old seasons; Funny Cide raced beyond three but is a gelding.

I'm not as big on the "racing needs stars" argument, but at this point a prominent Triple Crown horse racing beyond his three-year-old season would be nice just for the novelty of it, let alone the star power. It'd be great for ABR, too.

Northern Exposure; Jersey Giants

2013-05-08T21:11:00.001-07:00

The big Saturday features this week take us to Canada, where Woodbine hosts the Princess Final and the Diplomat Final, starring sophomores. The co-starring events are at the Meadowlands. Of course, there are four John Simpson Stakes on Friday, May 10, for soph-filly-and-colt trotters and those Grand Circuit races will be covered in this week’s Hambletonian Trail blog, brought to you exclusively by TwinSpires and the Hambletonian Society.

Speaking of exclusive, more harness horses to watch (H2W) appear on our weekly list from tracks around North America.

As well, the TwinSpires’ 10-percent bonuses for winning the Pick 4 at Woodbine on Saturday nights continue. And now, get the same deal with Pick 4s at Hoosier Park throughout the harness meet, and double points plus (click here).

Check out the details for Woodbine here.

Check out the Hoosier details here.

Diplomats And Princesses

Canadian three-year-old pacers are in action as May moves onward and the colts meet in the final of the Diplomat (colts) and Princess (fillies) pacing series at Woodbine on May 11. There could be future stars in this group as the divisions’ members develop into summer. The fillies chase a purse of $55,600 while the colts and geldings square off for $55,800.

Belle Boyd should be the choice for the filly field, as she was very strong winning the second leg of the Princess at 1-9 after taking round one. In leg two she made up 6 lengths to catch pace-setter Super Soph, second choice at 5-1. Trainer Carl Jamieson’s gal should fill most of the win pool. Bucking this dominant filly means a small shot or a pass. We will go with Super Soph to take her out at a price.

Given a trip not unlike the one that got him second at 64-1 in leg two of the Diplomat Series, Orillia Joe could overcome the recent successes of Veradero Hanover, who won the first leg, and Rockin Wizard, who took the second. Rockin Wizard went wire to wire in his affair for trainer Bob McIntosh, while “Varadero” was unable to overcome an outside journey in round two as he did winning round one. Still, trainer Richard Moreau’s student could win with a good trip but should the two have their disagreements on the pace of the mile, “Joe” could come up with a big win at a big price.

Tough Trot Tribe

The big boys, so to speak, those hard-nosed older trotters, are featured in two elims for the Arthur J. Cutler Memorial, both worth $40,000, at the Meadowlands on May 11.

In split one, Trond Smedshammer gears up Calchips Brute, from 11 races already this season, to probably take this one. Some familiar faces make up the seven here, including Guccio in his second appearance as a four-year-old. Wishing Stone, a transcontinental trotter going for Ron Burke these days, will be gunning and don’t overlook Opening Night in exotics.

The second “Cutler” story includes Modern Family, fresh off of a big win last week. But he will have to do better to assure his place here, especially with Mister Herbie, who debuts and may not need a race against these, most younger and most still getting their feet wet for the new season.

Also on the Cutler program, the Hudson River Series brings together a strong field of four- and five-year-olds with a $58,000 pures. Here is another chance for a price with Yo Cheyenne Rocky, who is yet to peak and has raced with the best types here.

And, a $50,000 Free-For-All Championship unites regulars from the Yonkers battles early on in the season, with Foiled Again looking to plow through another divisional wall of strong foes. We like the second return of Hurrikane Kingcole at four and would not be surprised if he has a surprise for some of the veterans here by cutting fiery fractions and holding on to win at a price.

H2W Legend

Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track to decide how you will use the information.

The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means that horse is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared.

An “ae” signals the horse is entered but on the also-eligible list (so it might not get into the race). Multi-horses may be listed in the same race.

Horses from previous lists that are not racing have a NR after the name on a separate line from dated entries.

H2W

Buffalo

5/9/11, Debs Girloffortune R2
5/10/13 +Bailys Magic R2; +Fifty Two Finn R4; +Pacific Prince R7; In Good Hands R10
5/11/13, Redford Hall R1; Kiasma R5; Fireyourguns R6; Dontgetinskyway R6; Ideal Affair R12

Cal Expo
5/10/13, Outta The Red R13
5/11/13, Dreaming Of Amy R2; Terror Time R4; Chevie Balboa R6; Ridgerson R9; Sun On The Rocks R11
Amazin Dot NR; Eggwhite Inmy Beer NR

Freehold
5/10/13, Beach Burn R2; Lookout Stokk Zone R2; Where’s Harry R3; Smooth Finish R11
5/11/13, Bell’s Panacea R9
Padre Manuel NR; Ironstone Wiz NR; Pacey Deucey NR

Hoosier
5/10/13, +Velocity Vespa ae R5
5/11/13, Nine Innings R5; Rocket Fuel R9
Richerthanrayno NR; Keep On Flirtin NR

Maywood
5/9/13, River Of Faith R8
5/10/13, Huga Yankee R1; +Fox Valley Bobbijo R2; Free To Scoot R2; Tuff Longport R8; Primrose Path R9;
Summer Party NR; Prime Escape NR; Park Bug NR; +Catch The Rapids NR

Northfield
5/10/13, +Attack Of The Town R7; Redmeansgo R11; +Just Got Lucky R12; Whats Your Fantasy R13
Erikadikete NR

Pocono
5/11/13, Night Train Shane R3; Hillbilly Hanover R12; Wisher R13

Pompano
5/11/13, Pembroke Big Bo R2; +Wingull R5; Bellator R6
Joltin Duel NR; T’s Electric NR

Raceway
5/11/13, Immigration Lad R3; ++Game Madison R8
5/12/13, +G Road R11
Rosie L NR; Taffy Towne NR

Scioto
5/8/13, +Bench’s Beauty R4
5/11/13, Panskrit R8; Henry Gram R8; Frog Juice R9

Tioga
5/10/13, Tiffany Malone R3; Nutmegs Cider R7; Ramona Disomma R9; Jk Geronimo R12
5/11/13, Rompaway Alvin R1
5/12/13, Stand Up Comic R8

Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 05/08 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio

2013-05-08T10:57:00.001-07:00

TwinSpires' Derek Simon and Brisnet's Ed DeRosa recap the 2013 Kentucky Derby and look forward to the Preakness Stakes.

In the U. of Bet segment, Dave Schwartz and Derek further discuss the Derby as it relates to value betting.

Lastly, in the Handicapping segment, Derek chats about the strange case of Palace Malice, as well as his Key Race Ratings.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 05/08 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio

What could stop Orb in the Preakness

2013-05-07T21:20:00.000-07:00

When the Preakness Stakes unfolds on May 18 at Pimlico Race Course, two things regarding the running of the race are likely to be different than the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands: 1) the surface, 2) the pace.

And it probably won't matter.

To say that neither surface nor pace played a role in the Derby outcome would be naive, but to suggest that Orb wouldn't have won on a fast track or with a slower pace or any combination of such variables would do an incredible disservice to the best Derby performance I can remember going back to the Barbaro-Street Sense-Big Brown treble of 2006-2008.

Orb earned a 111 Speed Rating and 126 Class Rating from Brisnet.com for his Derby tour de force. Orb's Derby win was similar to his Fountain of Youth in that it appeared as if his closing move won the race, but really, it was his ability to make a big middle move (122 E2 pace rating) that allowed him to be in contention turning for home.

That type of move is what it takes to win Derbys, and even with a fast track and dawdling pace at Pimlico, I'm expecting more of a Smarty Jones or Big Brown-type of performance at Old Hilltop than Mine That Bird or Animal Kingdom.

I don't reference those last two horses as an insult, but rather to illustrate that both had too much work to do to catch frontrunners Rachel Alexandra and Shackleford, respectively. Orb's style will allow him to take control of the race, and bury it if necessary a la Smarty Jones or Big Brown.

So is Orb beatable? Of course--they all are. But as things are now, he might be more bettable than beatable. He's fair value at 6-to-5 and maybe even money, and while I expect odds on, there is steam elsewhere (e.g. Departing) that might help the Derby winner to drift up.

The biggest question for me will be what to do with Itsmyluckyday and Goldencents, my top and third picks, respectively, in this year's Derby. Both have shown the talent to win. Their best and any regression from the Derby winner makes things interesting, but it's really hard for me to play for their best--even at generous odds--considering the dreadfulness of their Derby runs.

Derby also rans do just fine in the Preakness. Of the seven Preaknesses this century not won by the Derby winner, five had raced in the Derby: Shackleford in 2011, Lookin At Lucky in 2010, Curlin in 2007, Afleet Alex in 2005, and Point Given in 2001 with two of those (Lookin At Lucky & Point Given) being beaten favorites and another two being beaten second choices (Curlin and Afleet Alex). All seven had run well, though. Shackleford tired on the lead, Lookin At Lucky was beat by a rough trip from post 1, Curlin was jinxed by Apollo, Afleet Alex had a rough trip third, and Point Given chased a fast pace wide. I'm not saying they all ran great, but they all ran OK and had excuses.

With Goldencents and Itsmyluckyday this year, I'm grasping at straws. Yeah, maybe it was the pace and/or the surface, but neither threatened at any point in the race. Itsmyluckyday was working out what looked to be a fantastic trip but just never had any punch. Considering his Florida Derby where it looked like he was going to win like a good thing then was no match for Orb, can I really run it back on him in this spot?

It all comes down to the price you're willing to take that the pace and/or surface affected Derby runners, and what value exists in conceding that Orb is probably the best under any scenario.

Can Orb do it?

2013-05-06T14:13:00.000-07:00

Catching my breath following a whirlwind 78 hours in Louisville and already looking forward both to the Preakness Stakes in less than two weeks and Kentucky Derby 140 in less than a year.

One of the things I got right in my pre-race analysis was that Orb would be the most exciting "Triple Crown" prospect to emerge from the Derby with a win. That seems to be the case, as I can't imagine this kind of Triple Crown chatter had Itsmyluckyday or Giant Finish gotten the job done.

So can Orb do it? Certainly he can, and I would say at this point it's reasonable to expect it. Even a conservative 3-to-2 to win the Preakness and Belmont would make him 21-to-4 to win both (and thus the Triple Crown), but he's more likely even money in Baltimore and 3-to-5 in the Belmont for odds of 13-to-3 to sweep.

Talking about him winning a Triple Crown makes sense right now considering he has a 15%-20% to do so, but what's surprised me is the gusto of such talk with a common refrain being, "Best chance in a long time to actually do it."

Certainly Orb has a better chance than Mine That Bird or Giacomo, but I'm not sure his chance is as good as Smarty Jones or Big Brown.

In Orb's favor is his running style. He closed in the Derby behind fast fractions, but I don't think he needs to be that far back, which is good news for the type of trip that typically wins the Preakness and Belmont (Orb won't win the Preakness if he gets the same trip Animal Kingdom or Mine that Bird got).

The other factor, of course, is competition. A horse capable of running a 109 Brisnet Speed Rating (as Orb did in the Kentucky Derby) is certainly better than one whose ceiling is 100, but in terms of continuing to win that 109 is harder to sustain against 105+ types than if the 100 horses if facing 90 types.

Orb to me has the constitution and connections to handle the three races in five weeks, but his competition this year is a better group than Big Brown contended with in 2008. Smarty Jones and Street Sense, meanwhile were extraordinary talents with the unfortunate happenstance to have been born the same year as horses like Birdstone and Curlin, respectively.

The sheet below lists the previous 17 Kentucky Derby winners sorted by those I thought had the best chance of winning the Triple Crown following the roses; Smarty Jones tops the list as most likely with Giacomo at the bottom as least likely. It was a tough call putting Smarty Jones on top because the chasm between talent and competition was much bigger for Big Brown, but I do think Smarty Jones was the superior racehorse, and the excitement generated by his run bringing a record crowd to Belmont Park.

Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

2013-05-04T22:10:00.000-07:00

It was the beginning of the Hambletonian Trail and we repeated with a winner in the soph-colt trot classic Dexter Cup at Freehold. Celebrity Maserati defeated the big favorite, paying $6.00. All race reviews and reports will be posted at the Hambletonian Society’s special archive page.

In the inaugural Meadowlands Maturity we spoke of the buzz horse, Modern Family, but supported Little Brown Fox at 23-1. Modern Family won, paying $8.20. A surprisingly good effort from Uncle Peter brought that one home second at 10-1. “Fox” was flat, staying sixth around the mile.

The Simpson three-year-old colt pace was a joke mile for the Johny Rock side of the huge favorite John Butenschoen entry, winning at 30 cents to the dollar. Our choice, Kenzie’s Beach Boy, was sixth at 36-1.

In Pocono’s Van Rose Memorial there was no beating Golden Receiver. The prohibitive favorite stormed the group of older pacers, paying a mere $2.60. Our Fred And Ginger upset did not surface, though he was a clean third at 4-1.

In this week’s results for out horses-to-watch (H2W) list, exclusive to TwinSpires, we had a remarkable number of seconds, covering a gamut of prices. Come back on Thursday for more great contenders.

H2W

$14.00 Hurricane Hanna, Northfield
$10.40 Terrys Star Dragon, Freehold
$6.20 Racy Betty, Lebanon
$5.60 Best Magic, Freehold
$5.00 Flashy, Hoosier
$5.00 Stiletossilverheels, Cal Expo
$3.60 Shabalabandingdong, Maywood

The following are the horses that finished second or third along with their post-time odds. Special notes on those finishes follow.

Seconds:
Swimsuit Model (5-1), Lebanon; Red Rufus (3-1), Lebanon; Southwest (7-2), Vernon; Avantage (2-1), Pompano; Prime Escape (7-1), Maywood; Pin Stripes (4-1), Maywood; Ironstone Wiz (9-1), Freehold; Upandover Hanover (27-1), Buffalo; Jk Abigezunt (18-1), Buffalo; Bailey’s Magic (4-1), Buffalo; Pw Tootsie (4-1), Buffalo; ER Sister (1-2), Hoosier; Holy Chip (6-5), Hoosier

Thirds:
Padre Manuel (8-5), Freehold; Pair Of Eyes (5-2), Northfield; Wingull (5-1), Pompano

H2W Cashing Notes

At Vernon, Southwest’s place to the favorite caused an exacta worth $23.40. Upandover Hanover paid $20 to place. Jk Abigezunt paid $14.60 to place.

All adjustments for returnees to the list and additions will be in the Thursday blog.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

News And Notes

There are no results on the H2W for May 4 at Vernon Downs due to a serious problem. After a confirmed case of equine herpes at Vernon, management and the New York Gaming Commission have made the decision to cancel racing in the best interest of the harness racing community. No horses will be allowed to ship into or out of Vernon until further notice and trainers attempting will be dealt with accordingly. Horsemen and women have been urged to use hygienic precaution when working from horse to horse, trainers should keep an eye on their horses, and continually take their temperature.

Management and the New York Gaming Commission will continue to gather more information on the situation and more information will be made available as soon as possible.

Next Saturday night at The Meadowlands Racetrack the first event for trotters will be the $40,000 eliminations for the $200,000 (est.) Arthur J. Cutler Memorial trot. The series conditions rule that in the event that the event does not require eliminations a $50,000 Open trot will be offered to series eligibles as a point-bearing race. The $58,000 Hudson River Pacing series final will be raced on May 11 as well. The John Simpson Memorial soph- trotting stakes will be raced on Friday, May 10.

The Molson Pace at Western Fair will be contested as a $150,000 Invitational event this year on Friday, May 31. In recent years, the Molson Pace has had eliminations and a final the following week. However, this year’s event drew fewer nominations (17), which prompted the change in format. Western Fair, though, has added a new twist to this year’s race. A Molson prep will be held on Friday (May 24) and the winner of that will receive an automatic berth into the Molson and will join seven other invitees for the main event.

More high-profile performers from last year qualified at the Meadowlands. To Dream On, one of the best rookie trotting fillies last season, won her 2013 debut with a 1:56 score for trainer Jimmy Takter. Last year To Dream On won eight of nine starts, earning $719,000. She last raced in the Breeders Crown final at Woodbine in late October, winning by more than 3 lengths. Captaintreacherous recorded his second winning qualifier of the season with a 1:54.3 mile for conditioner Tony Alagna. Maven, a winner of $758,000 during her sophomore season debuted and finished a close third. Millionaire pacing mare Drop The Ball qualified against only two horses but she won by more than 24 lengths. And I Luv The Nitelife recorded her third winning qualifier, this one over Nikki Beach. I Luv The Nitelife earned $682,000 during her rookie season in 2012.

Extraordinary Extras

Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

Every weekend as part of that blog we offer Balmoral Pick-4-and-win picks at the USTA’s Strategic Wagering Program page which includes suggested win bets.

Connect to Twitter and follow Frank and Ray Cotolo for up-to-the-minute suggestions on wagers at many harness raceways. Then, wager from your TwinSpires accounts.

Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog.

Cartoons by Thom Pye