Tyler's Take On Sports

2010-01-05T18:21:00.002-05:00

Join John Connelly and I tonight for another episode of First Inning Radio. John and I will be discussing the recent Hot Stove news and notes, including the Cardinals' impending signing of free agent outfielder Matt Holliday. Also, Randy Booth of OverTheMonster.com will be joining us to discuss what Theo Epstein has done for the Boston Red Sox so far this winter.

Tune in at 8:00 and use the media player below to listen.

Winter Meetings Talk on First Inning Radio

2009-12-08T19:23:00.003-05:00

Join John Connelly and I tonight for the return of First Inning Radio. John and I will be discussing the latest rumors from the Winter Meetings as well as the recent changes made over at FirstInning.com. Jake Hamlin of FirstInning will be our guest to discuss what he has in store for the site in the near future.

We will also cover today's three-team blockbuster that sent Curtis Granderson to the New York Yankees.

Tune in at 8:00 and use the media player below to listen.

Baltimore Orioles Offseason Thoughts

2009-12-06T20:11:00.004-05:00

I’ve now completed offseason previews for the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. Next up is the Baltimore Orioles.

After a decade of futility, the Orioles are on the right track. General manager Andy MacPhail has done a fine job of stockpiling the farm system with exciting young talent, highlighted by the pitching trio of Jake Arrieta Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman and catcher Matt Wieters. While the future looks bright, though, the franchise is still at least a full season away from competing in the powerhouse American League East.

As a result, Baltimore finds itself in an interesting position this winter. The team has payroll flexibility, and, according to Peter Gammons, is expected to go out and spend. MacPhail has to keep the Orioles’ best long-term interests in mind as he enters the Winter Meetings, however, and factor in where his teams falls on the success cycle before making any major decisions. Of course, that means he shouldn’t sign any Type A free agents—even though the O’s first-round pick is protected, losing a second-rounder would still sting—or make long-term commitments to a player who will block any top prospect.

According to numerous reports, Baltimore has one major priority above all else: adding an impact, middle-of-the-order bat. Outside of the top two hitters on the market, Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, the pickings are pretty slim in that department, though, and it would be bad business for the Orioles to tie up a significant portion of their payroll into either player. Some potential options available to serve as a short-term run producer in the middle of the lineup are Hank Blalock, Jermaine Dye, Vladimir Guerrero, Nick Johnson and Hideki Matsui.

Out of that group, only Blalock and Johnson will be able to contribute on defense. Dye, who has graded out as third-worst defensive outfielder in the majors since 2007, is open to a move to first base but making a successful switch is easier said than done; color me skeptical. Likewise, Guerrero and Matsui are also better suited as designated hitters at this point of their careers. Plus, there’s no guarantee that either player would want to come to play for the perennial basement dwellers, anyway.

Blalock is no longer the budding star that he was for the Texas Rangers in 2003 and 2004, when he combined to post 9.7 Wins Above Replacement. Injuries and plate discipline issues have really held him back. Although he was finally healthy for a full season, his performance tanked. He posted a weak line of .234/.277/.459 and struck out 108 times against only 26 walks while playing in a band box at the Ballpark at Arlington. While he did suffer from a ridiculously low batting average on balls in play (.252, .47 points below his career average) and should rebound, his presence in the Rangers’ lineup represented a pretty big hole. He’ll likely be had for cheap and has power potential, perhaps more so than the other options, but the negatives outweigh the upside.

On the other hand, Johnson would be an excellent short-term addition to fill the opening at first base. He lacks the power that Baltimore is said to be looking for, but he boasts the highest on-base percentage from last season among all free agents, .402. If not for consistent injury issues, he would command a multi-year contract but his inability to stay on the field will make him somewhat affordable. He could be a big boost to the offense and won’t block first base prospect Brandon Snyder, who could be ready at some point next summer.

The most notable holes for the Orioles are clearly the infield corners, though, with Michael Aubrey and Ty Wigginton currently penciled in to start on the team depth chart. That corner combo is obviously not ideal, especially defensively. Wigginton is known for his versatility, but, just because he can play multiple positions, doesn’t mean that he can do so effectively. Indeed, he has graded out -60.2 runs below average in the field since 2002, according to FanGraphs’ UZR, and the limited third base data available for him is brutal. While he can crush lefties, his defensive futility hurts his overall value and makes him better suited as a bat of the bench for a team that expects to win more times than not.

If the club wants to go the cheap route, lasting a few months with Aubrey at first wouldn’t be too terrible. He made the most of his limited opportunity at the major league level in ’09, batting .289/.326/.500 with a 114 OPS+ in 95 plate appearances. While he has hit for high batting averages and made good contact at the upper levels of the minors, though, he has minimal power and mediocre on-base skills. Thus, he would hardly provide the pop that MacPhail is hoping for. Indeed, Bill James projects him to hit just .270/.311/.415 with a .726 OPS and .319 Weighted On-Base Average.

Therefore, I would do my due diligence and make a concerted effort to sign Johnson assuming that the organization feels Snyder is the permanent solution and will be ready by 2011. Even that isn’t a sure thing, though. Snyder saw his prospect status soar after dominating Double-A this summer, raking at a clip of .343/.421/.597 with 10 homers in 233 plate appearances. It was quite a performance. However, he was aided by a ridiculously high .404 BABIP and came down to earth tremendously after a promotion to Triple-A; his wOBA fell from .444 to .304. He’ll never hit for a ton of power, either, so feelings are mixed about his upside, but he’s certainly the top internal prospect at the position.

There are some solutions at the hot corner even with Chone Figgins and Placido Polanco officially off the market. Adrian Beltre, a fine defender, is the premier name available, but he’s a Scott Boras client who will require a long-term commitment; reports indicate that he wants $27-M over three years. He also would reportedly prefer to stay on the West Coast, making a move to Baltimore unlikely. As much as I’ve raved about his defense and potential for a rebound at the plate with a move away from Safeco Field, he wouldn’t be a smart investment for this particular club, anyway.

Signing Beltre would only block the top position prospect in the organization, Josh Bell, who came over in the George Sherrill trade. Bell, 23, made an impressive debut at Double-A Bowie following the trade, hitting .289/.346/.570 with nine homers in 33 games. Most important, he quelled concerns about his viability of remaining at third base long term and is now considered a potential plus defender at the position. He was even named the best defensive third baseman in the Southern League by the coaches and managers on the circuit. The switch-hitter has concerning lefty-righty splits against southpaws, but overall he appears destined to be the third baseman of the future in the land of Ace of Cakes. Thus, signing a free agent third baseman like Beltre for more than one season would be misguided.

That said, Bell definitely needs more seasoning in the minors. He has yet to accumulate a single Triple-A at-bat and still needs to refine some of his skills, especially the issues against left-handed pitching. In addition, the team would be wise to delay his arbitration clock and prevent him from garnering Super Two status by holding him down until at the earliest mid-summer since winning now is unrealistic. In the meantime, the team needs a holdover who can do a more capable job than Wigginton.

Two names I think could work are Joe Crede and Pedro Feliz. Now, neither player really has a bat that carries the position but hear me out. They are each likely to come cheap on a one-year deal and play excellent defense. Crede has the back of an old man, and, as a result, is an injury risk. He also hasn’t been an above-average hitter since 2006 despite his power potential, limited by a poor approach and free-swinging ways. Crede earns his paycheck with his glove, though, and he showed that he still had it in 84 games with the Minnesota Twins in ’09, posting a 12.5 UZR and 23.4 UZR/150.

Feliz is also just an awful hitter. According to FanGraphs, his bat has been worth -71.2 runs below average since 2002. He’s an outstanding defender, though, which has made him quite valuable even with a middling bat.

If I were running the Orioles, I would make improving the defense a prime focus. The team ranked 26th in team defensive efficiency last season, converting just 68.2 percent of batted balls hit into play into outs. Baltimore has the makings of an outstanding young rotation, but Arrieta Brad Bergensen, Matusz and Tillman are going to continue to suffer through growing pains. Having an elite defense behind them will only help them gain confidence as they progress as major league pitchers, and doing so could be relatively inexpensive. Since winning immediately should not be a concern—realistically, they still have a long upward climb—putting their future, a group of youngsters that many feel rival the Tampa Bays’ group circa 2007, in the best position to succeed would be a wise decision. Shaving off runs on defense will also help the bullpen to hold onto leads and, while upgrading defense is no longer a glaring market inefficiency, it’s still a somewhat affordable way to upgrade a roster.

With a few moves, the Orioles defense could really improve. First, the team should look to trade designated hitter Luke Scott, opening up the DH position for Nolan Reimold. Reimold had a fine rookie season on offense, hitting .279/.365/.466 with 15 homers in 411 plate appearances. He graded out 23.4 runs above average, and both the FanGraphjs’ community projections and James forecast an OPS above .860 for him over a full season in ’10. Clearly, his bat is valuable and he deserves to play every night.

However, while the sample size is small, Reimold was well below-average in left field; he posted a -10.8 UZR and -17.1 UZR/150 in 741.1 innings there. He would be a fine DH and a switch there would open up left field for Felix Pie. While Pie hasn’t lived up to the prospect billing, he quietly put together a strong second half. The former center fielder is a fine defender on a corner in left and made progress wit his bat. If he were to play left, the Orioles could have an excellent defensive outfield. Adam Jones did not deserve to win a Gold Glove, but he should improve with age out in center and Nick Markakis, a +12.1 defender in 2008, is likely to bounce back as well.

Baltimore already has a fine shortstop in Cezar Izturis, so adding Crede or Feliz would give them an excellent left side of the infield. A few quick moves and a weakness could turn into a real strength.

Dealing Scott won’t fetch much in return, but perhaps he could be flipped for a solid reliever. Wigginton, too, should be openly shopped, assuming that some team would be willing to offer up anything of remote value for his services. Improving the bullpen should be the goal in those trades, since neither player will bring in anything more than a so-so bullpen arm with limited upside. Improving the relief corps should also be a priority, but going the low-cost route is the better strategy as developing bullpen arms is the more effective approach than overpaying for them. Yes, that means no Mike Gonzalez, Brandon Lyon, or Fernando Rodney; it should go really without saying that teams not ready to compete should avoid signing Type A relief pitchers.

The Orioles could also look to add one of the medium-risk, high-reward starters along the lines of former Oriole Erik Bedard, Justin Duscherer, Rich Harden and Ben Sheets. It would be quite humorous if Bedard returned, since he netted such an incredible return from the Seattle Mariners when he was traded two offseasons ago.

Overall, the Orioles are again going to struggle this upcoming season. But all of the talk about them turning into the next Rays in 2011 is realistic. They need to let their youngsters play right now, making only a few cost-effective veteran additions—the Cliff Floyd equivalent—to help provide leadership. And improving the defense, which seems within grasp, will only help out a promising starting rotation. I really like where this organization is headed.

Did Atlanta Braves Act To Soon To Improve Bullpen?

2009-12-06T12:03:00.005-05:00

According to Jerry Crasnick, free agent reliever Rafael Soriano is contemplating accepting arbitration from the Atlanta Braves. As a Type A free agent with injury baggage, Soriano is unlikely to exceed what he could expect to make in arbitration ($8-M or so), so, while it would indeed be a surprise for him to return, it is not out of the realm of possibility. His representation is simply bluffing here in all likelihood, but, if the reliever does decide to accept, it will put the Braves in a tricky situation.

Atlanta made an aggressive push this week to address the backend of its bullpen with the expected losses of free agent closer Mike Gonzalez and Soriano. The club first signed left-handed reliever Billy Wagner to take over the ninth inning for Gonzalez and added Takashi Saito in its next move. Saito and Wagner, who each are at risk of breaking down given their age and recent health questions, will make a combined $10.2-M in 2010. In making those decisions, it seemed clear that the Braves were expecting their free agent relievers to reject arbitration and test the open market in search of a multi-year deal.

Not so fast.

If Soriano accepts, Atlanta will now have around $18-M tied up into three relief pitchers. Relievers, of course, are the most fungible role on a major league roster and their performances are extremely volatile from year to year. Thus, tying up such a large percentage of the payroll into the position is simply an inefficient allocation of resources that could be used to improve the roster in other areas, such as left field.

Again, Soriano will probably see what it is out there—according to Keith Law, he is the best free agent reliever available and should be looking at lucrative contract—so all of the talk about what will happen should he return is pure speculation at this point. Even if that is true, though, one can certainly question the timing of the decision to sign Saito and Wagner before knowing for sure that the incumbent relief duo was on its way out. Last winter, teams that waited to see how the market played out were rewarded with bargain contracts. Thus, the downside of waiting a week to address the potential bullpen vacancies remains unclear.

Not only would Soriano coming back limit the Braves’ payroll flexibility going into the Winter Meetings, the draft ramifications are also stark. Signing Wagner, a Type A free agent, cost Atlanta its first-round selection, 20th overall, in the June’10 amateur draft. Even without the impending Soriano issue, the price tag for Wagner was a bit questionable. While he looked excellent for the Boston Red Sox down the stretch, he is nearing 40 and still missed most of last season due to injury. Should he get hurt or show his age, the move could be one that the organization comes to regret.

If Soriano does sign elsewhere, the Braves would offset the lost of their own pick by collecting compensation since he is also a Type A. If not, the loss of that pick hurts even more.

Soriano wants to close, so perhaps taking away that possibility by adding Wagner for that role drove the Braves to act quickly. I question that rationale, however, and, looking at it closely, wonder why the club would not just make a serious effort to bring him back anyway.

Soriano is an elite reliever, and, despite lacking the “proven” closer label, could handle closing duties no problem. The fact that he lacks such a designation, in fact, is the function of a lack of opportunity, not a personal knock against him. According to FanGraphs’ metric Wins Above Replacement, he was actually the seventh-most valuable reliever, including those with the proven closer tag, in the majors in 2009; he produced an impressive 2.0 WAR. The flame-throwing right-hander continued to miss bats an incredible clip, striking out 102 in 75.2 innings pitched, and only Jonathan Broxton of the Los Angeles Dodgers managed a higher strikeout rate than his 12.13 K/9. He also outpithced his 2.97 ERA and 138 ERA+, posting an excellent 2.54 Fielding Independent Pitching.

When it comes to annual rate, Soriano would have been more expensive than Wagner. The latter comes with more risk, however, and retaining their own player would have allowed them to protect their first-rounder. Of course, if a team wishes to add a true impact position player or starting pitcher, the benefits far exceed the cost of the pick depending on where the team falls on the success cycle. For a reliever, though, it is a pretty big hit, especially considering the internal considerations.

Atlanta will have one heck of a bullpen should Soriano accept, that is for sure, so it will not be the end of the world if he comes back. Indeed, assuming all three pitchers remain effective and healthy, the group could rival any relief corps in the National League. At that cost (picks and payroll), though, they damn well better.

Buyer Beware: Brandon Lyon

2009-12-05T21:53:00.003-05:00

The Philadelphia Phillies made their first splash in free agency this week, signing infielder Placido Polanco to play third base. And, according to sources, Polanco may not be the only member of the 2009 Detroit Tigers to end up in Philadelphia. The club, reports say, is focusing on adding reliever Brandon Lyon as a potential fallback option should Brad Lidge falter again in 2010.

If I were the Phillies or any other potentially interested team, though, I would be weary in handing out a significant contract to Lyon. On the surface, the 29-year-old right-hander appeared to have a fine season for the Tigers. Indeed, he posted a strong 2.86 ERA and 181 ERA+ in 78.2 innings pitched while recording three saves.

Looking deeper, though, it is clear that Lyon benefited from good fortune beyond his control and is headed for a significant regression. For one, he registered an unsustainable 80.8% strand rate that was nearly 10.0 percent higher than his 71.4% career average. He also benefited from excellent luck on balls in play, posting a career-low .229 BABIP; his career average is .305. Detroit made a concerted effort to improve its team defense last winter, signing the slick-fielding Adam Everett to play shortstop and moving Miguel Cabrera across the diamond to first base. The effort paid off, too, as the Tigers went from 24th to ninth in team defensive efficiency, making the pitching staff—and especially Lyon—appear better than it actually was. The reliever definitely picked the right time to come to the Motor City from the Arizona Diamondbacks in light of the improved fielding unit.

In 2008, Lyon posted a 4.78 ERA and below-league average 99 ERA+ as the Diamondbacks’ closer. Interestingly, though, he actually recorded a much better strikeout and walk rate in ’08 than he did in ’09 despite his ERA being more than a full run lower. His strikeout per nine innings rate fell from 6.67 to 6.52 while his walk rate per nine innings shot up from 1.97 to 3.55.

The primary difference was that Lyon stranded just 69.1 percent of base runners and was hurt by a .355 BABIP. In reality, he was actually a better pitcher the previous season; he posted a 3.84 FIP, a metric which eliminates factors beyond a pitcher’s control, in ’08 and 4.06 FIP in ’09. He also was aided by throwing in pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. To his credit, he did induce more ground balls (47.2% ground ball rate) while posting the lowest line drive rate of his career. Thus, the low ERA was not entirely due to plain old dumb luck. Counting on him to post another sub 3.00 ERA—even moving back to the inferior National League—seems like a trap, though, barring an unforeseen improvement of skills.

Lyon is not a terrible pitcher, by any stretch, and definitely has value. The price tag for his services may be inflated because of the shiny ERA and his 26 saves from ’08, though, making him a candidate to be overpaid. Reliever performances are extremely volatile due to the limited innings that they throw, and Lyon will be another example of that point next season. Thus, before making a decision, the Phillies should definitely be aware of the aforementioned concerns.

Future Is Now For Angels' Brandon Wood

2009-12-05T19:46:00.004-05:00

Now that Chone Figgins is on the way out, the Los Angeles Angels are left with a decision to make at third base. The versatile Figgins, who is reportedly headed up north to the Seattle Mariners, will surely be missed as a table setter at the top of the Angels’ batting order. Losing him also opens up a spot on the diamond that will need to be filled either internally or on the open market.

If Figgins had remained in Los Angeles, there was some talk that he would move back to left field in order to open up a spot for minor league infielder Brandon Wood. Under this alignment, Juan Rivera would have moved to right field, sliding Bobby Abreu, a brutal outfield defender, to designated hitter. Given how the organization has handled Wood to this point, though, there is no guarantee that that scenario would have unfolded. Now that Figgins has departed, it is now or never for the former top prospect.

Wood, still only 24, would be the most cost-efficient option at the hot corner for the Angels. While his star has dimmed over the years, he has never been given an extended look at the major league level and could really blossom if provided the chance. Expectations have been high for him since Los Angeles selected him in the first round, 23rd overall, out of an Arizona high school back in 2003. He then quickly established himself as one of the minors’ top prospects. His prospect status reached its peak in 2005, when he posted an incredible line of .321/.383/.672 with 51 doubles, 43 homers and 115 RBIs in 130 games in the hitter-friendly California League.

Since the Cal League breakout, Wood has continued to hit for impressive power. He has smacked 100 home runs combined in the minors the past four seasons, posting Isolated Power totals of .276, .224, .299 and .264 from 2006-2009, respectively. Contact issues have held him back throughout his professional career, however, as his consistently high strikeout rates (ranging from 20 to 30 percent during that time span) have stood out as much as the home run totals. Due to organizational need, he was also moved off of shortstop and quickly shed the future star label.

Wood has also done little to take advantage of his limited opportunities in the majors. He has hit just .192/.222/.313 with an alarming 74 strikeouts (33% K rate) and only seven walks in 244 plate appearances for the Angels. Due to the struggles in the majors, some have placed the dreaded AAAA player tag on Wood, arguing that he is a player who simply destroys inexperienced pitching and gets exposed against more advanced competition.

However, a 224 at-bat sample size is not enough to write Wood off just yet. He continued to produce at Triple-A Salt Lake City in ’09, slashing .293/.353/.557 with 22 homers and 72 RBIs in 99 games. He also posted the lowest K% at the Triple-A level, cutting it down to 20.7 %. While he continued to struggle upon a promotion to Los Angeles, he definitely proved that he has nothing left to show on the farm.

Since the Angels fall on the win-now move of the success cycle, they do not have the luxury of waiting to see if they have something in Wood if they are not completely sold that he can do the job right away. If the club were rebuilding, giving Wood 400-plus plate appearances would be a no-brainer. Seattle and the Texas Rangers are within grasp of contention in the division, though, and a significant downgrade at third base could make a negative difference in the standings.

Wood, who boasts a .286/.354/.541 line in the minors, has clear pitch recognition issues, often chasing quality breaking pitches out of the zone. His strikeout problems will also get worse, and it would be foolish to ignore the context with which he has accumulated his statistics by playing in a hitters’ paradise in the thin air of Salt Lake City. According to Minor League Splits’ equivalency calculator, his ’09 Triple-A line would have translated to a mark of .238/.287/.437 in the majors. FanGraphs’ community projections forecast a line of .256/.315/.452 and .332 Weighted On-Base Average; that translates to 1.0 run above average. Clearly, that is not exactly stellar production for a corner infielder and, if he gets off to a bad start early, he could really begin to press.

That said, not many analysts and scouts felt that Kendry Morales would make such a significant impact in his rookie season, either. That turned out okay. By most accounts, Wood is also a strong defensive player—he was considered a fine shortstop coming up—and he can play each spot on the left side of the infield. While he will definitely be a downgrade from Figgins, Los Angeles could do a whole lot worse than having Wood penciled in at third base headed into spring training. The franchise could then reinvest the money saved from going internal at the position on starting pitching (perhaps re-signing John Lackey, or trading for and working out an extension with Roy Halladay) or in other areas.

If Los Angeles does not feel confident that Wood can handle the job, the market does present some external solutions. Even with Placido Polanco out of the picture, third base is one of the rare strengths of the free agent market. Adrian Beltre, a plus defender, would be a logical fit. If Beltre were to sign, the team defense would not miss a beat and he would likely rebound from a disappointing offensive campaign by moving away from Safeco Field, which is death on right-handed hitters. According to reports, Scott Boras is asking for three years, $27-M for the free agent third baseman, but, with Figgins getting only $8-M and setting the market, those figures should come down a lot. Angels owner Arte Moreno hates dealing with Boras, even saying that the team will not pursue another prized client of the so-called super agent, Matt Holliday. If Moreno does not wish to deal with Boras, elite defenders Joe Crede and Pedro Feliz and the offensive-minded Troy Glaus and Miguel Tejada are some other names available.

Losing Figgins hurts, of course, but the Angels have some options and will surely enjoy stealing the Mariners’ first-round pick. What do you think they should do?

Chone Figgins Will Add Needed OBP Jolt To Seattle Mariners

2009-12-05T15:33:00.005-05:00

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Seattle Mariners are on the verge of signing infielder Chone Figgins to a four-year, $36-M contract. If it goes through (the deal will likely not be announced until Monday), this would be a sound move for the Mariners.

Figgins, coming off one of the finest performances of his career, is the best third baseman available on the open market and many expected him to command at least a five-year deal. Since third base is one of the only strengths of a weak free agent class, however, the law of supply and demand may have worked against him here a bit and in favor of Seattle. The contract also essentially sets the market for other position players not named Matt Holliday, the only superior non-pitcher free agent.

The Mariners, though, are getting a nice player in Figgins. The 31-year-old infielder put up a fine offensive campaign for the Los Angeles Angels in 2009, hitting .298/.395/.393 with a league-leading 101 walks. He posted the highest walk rate (14.1%) of his career and scored 114 runs. While he does not hit for the power normally associated with a corner infielder, he makes up for the fact by getting on base at a tremendous clip and wreaking havoc on the base paths.

As well, a good portion of Figgins’ value as a player comes from his plus defense. He played an excellent third base in ’09, ranking fourth at the position in the majors with an 18.8 UZR/150, and has really settled in nicely since moving there full time in 2008. According to UZR, he has graded out 24.9 runs above average there the past two seasons.

In this regard, Figgins will fit right in on his new team. First-time general manager Jack Zduriencik immediately identified defense as an area where the team could improve relatively cheaply last offseason, acquiring an elite defensive center fielder, Franklin Gutierrez, in one of his first moves. The addition of Gutierrez, one of the most valuable defenders in the game, and new-found emphasis on saving runs via defense paid dividends.

Seattle fielded one of the majors’ best defensive units, leading the league with an 85.5 team UZR and ranking second with a .712 defensive efficiency rating. The improved defense helped the Mariners shave off 119 runs from their 2008 total (811 down to 692) even though the performance of the pitching staff remained relatively constant. Indeed, the pitching staff finished only tied for 19th in the metric Fielding Independent Pitching as its 4.39 FIP was only .20 points lower than its 2008 total. Bill James once wrote that “a lot of what is perceived as pitching is in fact defense.” That could not have been any more evident than with the ’09 Mariners, whose team ERA dropped nearly a full run (4.73 to 3.87) mostly because of an improved ability to turn batted balls hit into play into outs; the M’s went from 26th to second in defensive efficiency.

Despite rounding out the rear in the American League in runs scored, Seattle remained in contention and increased its win total by 24 because of the strong run prevention. In a pitcher-friendly ballpark like Safeco Field, that is the right approach to roster construction and maintaining the high level of defense is paramount. This move is consistent with that mindset.

The player Figgins will be replacing at third base, Adrian Beltre, was certainly no slouch in the field, either. In fact, Beltre was of the major reasons why Seattle excelled at run prevention, posting a 14.3 UZR and 18.8 UZR/150 at the position. Thus, Figgins will not be a major upgrade defensively by any stretch. He will just help to ensure that there is not a considerable drop off at third base with Beltre departing. Plus, he is extremely versatile and can play multiple positions on the diamond in a pinch.

Most important, the addition of Figgins will add a much-needed boost and OBP jolt to a poor offense. Seattle really struggled to score runs in ’09, hitting just .258/.314/.402 as a team while producing the third-fewest runs total, 640, in the majors. The offense just did not have enough hitters who got on base, which was the most notable issue. The Mariners’ .314 on-base percentage, in fact, was the lowest total in the American League and second-worst in baseball overall, trailing only the San Francisco Giants. Equally damning, outfielder Ichiro Suzuki was the only regular to post an OBP above .350.

It would almost be impossible, then, for Figgins not to help in this department. Even if he never comes close to drawing 101 walks again (his average over 162 games is 71), his on-base skills will be a welcome addition to an offense that desperately needs some. His career line of .291/.363/.388 does not scream star offensive third baseman, but, for this particular offense (when factoring in the home ballpark), his presence at the top of a lineup will go a long way.

Since Figgins is a player whose value comes from undervalued skills (defensive, getting on base), some may feel that the Mariners should have gone in a different direction. Perhaps trying to get a power, run-producing bat. When factoring in batting, fielding and positional factors, though, Figgins actually produced more Wins Above Replacement, 6.1, last season than any other hitter on the market. Zduriencik, who had done a remarkable job since taking over for the embattled Bill Bavasi, clearly understands the importance of those often overlooked qualities in a player based on this move.

That being said, the decision comes with the risks associated with any long-term investment into a single player. For one, Figgins is a Type A free agent and will net the Los Angeles Angels a first-round draft pick since Seattle’s first-rounder was unprotected. Since Bavasi did a number on the farm system during his reign as GM, the opportunity cost of losing such an early pick is significant.

Plus, Figgins is unlikely to ever surpass the 6.1-win total again. His WAR total was enhanced by his UZR, which is going to come down as he ages. He is also more likely to post an OBP near .360 than .400 again as well, given his lack of power. He will definitely be a nice top-of-the-order bat in the short term, profiling as 3.0 win player who should produce a line around his three-year average (.301/.386/.382). However, there is a realistic chance that he will off the map completely towards the end. His ability to hit near .300 drives a lot of his offensive value, but high-average, low-power hitters do not age all that well. His lefty/righty splits are also concerning—his OPS against lefties, 802, is much higher than his mark, 680, against righties—and he is moving into a park that is death on right-handed hitters.

All in all, I think this is a pretty good move for the Mariners, anyway. The price in both dollars and the first-round pick is high, but they are stealing away a key player from a division rival who will help them out immediately. Seattle still has some holes to fill—while the market values power properly and it will not come cheap, adding a dangerous middle-of-the-order hitter would definitely help—but is a realistic contender in the American League West for 2010. Adding Figgins, who fill form a nice 1-2 combo behind Ichiro, will only help their chances.

Marco Scutaro Headed To Boston Red Sox

2009-12-04T07:51:00.002-05:00

The Boston Red Sox have found a new shortstop. According to multiple sources, the Red Sox have, as most expected, reeled in the prize of a weak free agent class at the position, Marco Scutaro. Financial details have not been disclosed, but the deal is reportedly for two seasons with a mutual option for 2012.

I wrote about the Red Sox’s shortstop situation over Thanksgiving, laying out a few options other than what appeared to be the inevitable signing of Scutaro given the likely cost for the 34-year-old infielder. At the time, many felt that was headed for a guaranteed three-year deal. Since that is not the case, though, I am more lukewarm on the signing than I initially expected to be.

As has been well documented, Scutaro did not receive regular playing time at the major league level until he turned 28 despite a solid track record of performance in the minors. He was given the utility type label early on in his career, which was difficult for him to shake. Since becoming a regular, though, he proven to be a quality middle infielder.

It all came together for Scutaro this past season. He got off to an incredible start in his final hurrah with the Toronto Blue Jays, finishing at a line of .282/.379/.409 with career highs in home runs (12) and OPS+ (111). He also provided just above-average defense at the position, producing a 0.9 UZR a 1.0 UZR/150. When factoring in batting, fielding and positional considerations, he was worth 4.5 Wins Above Replacement; only Derek Jeter and Jason Bartlett ranked higher in the stat among American League shortstops.

However, Scutaro is certainly going to regress as a hitter going forward. The question is simply how much will he fall off? Many within the industry feel that his power was a mirage, arguing that he will never surpass double digits in homers again. His newfound approach at the plate, though, seems to be for real and his walk rate should remain relatively constant with age. He will likely add a much-needed OBP jolt from the shortstop hole. Even still, Scutaro has graded out -19.2 runs below average overall during his career and has only posted a league-average OPS+ or better once in his career. Thus, expecting him to repeat a 111 OPS+ seems like a trap. FanGraphs’ community projections forecast a line of .272/.347/.381, pegging him at 0.8 runs below average. For a player manning a premium defensive position, that is acceptable output, but those expecting a repeat performance will surely be disappointed if the projection is accurate.

On defense, there is not a lot of advanced data to go by for Scutaro as a shortstop. He posted a 7.6 UZR and 20.3 UZR/150 there in just 472.1 innings played in 2008. The number then dropped to right around average in a more significant sample size. Generally, it takes three times as large of a sample with defensive metrics to provide the same accuracy as their offensive counterparts. This is why relying on scouts’ input when it comes to evaluating defense is paramount. Boston, which ranked 28th in the majors in defensive efficiency, could definitely afford to see some improvement at the position when it comes to preventing runs. While Scutaro is not as talented with the glove as Alex Gonzalez, he is more than a capable fielder, and, in signing him, the Red Sox apparently feel that way too. Entering his mid-30s, however, there is a legitimate concern that he could really decline on this front and lose a step with age.

The Atlanta Braves signed Billy Wagner earlier this week. Since Wagner was a Type A free agent, the Red Sox will receive the Braves’ first-round pick as well as a supplemental choice. That helps offset the cost of bringing in Scutaro, who is also a Type A and costs Boston its first-rounder (#29 overall). While short-term needs marginalize the cost of a pick, the organization has had success going over slot and adding premium talent to its farm system in the later rounds. Even with the pick coming back for Wagner, losing the 29th player taken in the draft is no small price. The more early draft selections a team has, the better off it will be.

It is hard to analyze the move fully without knowing the financials, which hopefully will be released Friday at some point. Scutaro, even with a regression on both sides of the ball, should project for around 2.0 wins going forward. If he is being paid under $8-M, then, the price will be reasonable. The Red Sox had limited options here and are definitely better today than they were back in October. The defense is still a potential issue and there are red flags with Scutaro, but overall this was probably the right choice, albeit one that comes with risk.

Blue Jays Get Picks: Toronto, which signed former Red Sox shortstop Alex Gonzalez last week, is now hoarding draft picks. Right now, the franchise will receive the 29th pick in the draft, though that will change Boston signs a higher-rated free agent (Matt Holliday seems likely). Still, Toronto has eight projected picks in the first three rounds, giving it the chance to make a big splash in the June 2010 amateur draft.

Polanco signs with Phillies

2009-12-03T12:27:00.003-05:00

According to sources, the Philadelphia Phillies are close to bringing back veteran free agent Placido Polanco on a three-year, $18-M contract. Polanco will move across the diamond to fill the Phillies’ opening at third base.

At first glance, I am not a big fan of this move. Polanco is a nice player and the dollars on an annual level are reasonable for someone of his caliber. I question the length of the deal, however, and feel that there were other options available. As I wrote here, Adrian Beltre would have been a good fit and third base is indeed one of the few strengths of a weak free agent class.

Last winter, teams that waited to see the market unfold ended up reaping the benefits of a cold market. As a result, some teams looking for help may choose to be a bit more patient this time around. Philadelphia, whose decision to get something done so early into the game and prior to the winter meetings is a bit curious, will clearly not be one of them.

Going back to the player, here is what I wrote about Polanco in my free agent second baseman preview.

The Detroit Tigers have several free agents to bring back but only enough money for a few. Polanco, as a result, could be on the way out of Detroit. If so, his excellent defense (12.0 UZR) will be difficult to replace. Indeed, he formed a fine double play combination with all-field, no-hit shortstop Adam Everett, as Detroit jumped from 24th to ninth in team defensive efficiency.

Polanco was below average with his bat, hitting just .285/.331/.396, and his OPS+ total dropped for the third straight year. His power has dissipated and he continues to offer nothing in walks; he has produced walk rates of 5.7%, 5.5% and 5.4% from 2007 to ’09, respectively. Because of his good glove, he was still worth 3.2 WAR/$14.4-M, but his bat is on the decline and he is about to turn 34. He is unquestionably one of the top second sackers available, but a team runs the risk of getting burned if they pay him big-time dollars. He should be paid at a rate that projects him to be worth two to three wins, tops, as his range is going to escape him with age.

If the initial report is true, Polanco will indeed be paid at around a two-win projection. Thus, it is again difficult to criticize the money invested per season. Even with an offensive drop off, he will likely earn that salary in the short term because of his outstanding defense. He has not played third base regularly since 2002, but his plus glove work at the keystone should translate fairly well to his new position; many others have made the switch successfully in the past.

Polanco is best known for his ability to catch the ball and consecutive games without an error streak, but his defensive excellence goes beyond consistently making the routine play. According to the fielding metric Ultimate Zone Rating, he has graded out as 27.1 runs above average over the past four seasons while producing the following UZR during that time span:

2006: 5.6
2007: 9.2
2008: 2.1
2009: 11.4

It is unlikely, of course, that Polanco will remain a +11 defender going forward. He would likely fall somewhere in the middle between his ’08 and ’09 levels if he remained at second base, in fact. Regardless, he still projects to be a plus defender even with a position switch; the FanGraphs’ fan projections predict him to be worth 6.1 runs above average. He is also a versatile infielder who can play multiple positions, potentially giving Chase Utley a day off at second base every once in a while.

After putting up an incredible line of .341/.388/.458 in ’07, though, Polanco’s performance at the plate has really tailed off. As touched on in the second base preview, his OPS+ total has fallen for three straight seasons, dropping from 121 to 101 to 88 from ’07 to ’09, respectively. With minimal power and poor on-base skills, he is the type of hitter who will have to hit for a .300-plus batting average to be an offensive force. Since he makes consistent contact, he is a safe bet to do exactly that and his failure to eclipse the .300 mark in ’09 can in some part be attributed to a misfortune; his .295 batting average on balls in play was 19 points below his career average. Moving to hitter-friendly Citizen’s Bank Park and to the inferior National League will help as well. When factoring in his plus defense and decent offense, he projects to be a 2.5 to 3.0 win player for next season.

However, Polanco is going to be 37 at the end of the deal and it is hard to ignore the declining trends when it comes to getting on base and power. Should he lose a step in the field and continue to fall back as a hitter with age, this could end up being a regrettable mistake for the Phillies. The club had success with Feliz, an excellent defender who gave them nothing on offense, at the position. While Polanco represents an upgrade, his bat also does not play great at the position and the price to do so was steep when factoring in the length.

This was not a terrible move, by any stretch, and would have been a lot worse had the Detroit Tigers offered him arbitration; as a Type A free agent, he would have cost a draft pick. Philadelphia has an open window of success right now with its star core, falling on the win-now mode of the success cycle, and taking a gamble like this is defensible. I however, would have waited a bit to see if Polanco could have been had for cheaper and made a harder push at Beltre, who would have come with less downside risk.

Los Angeles Dodgers Foolish Not To Offer Randy Wolf Arbitration

2009-12-01T22:47:00.002-05:00

Tuesday was a good day for free agent left-hander Randy Wolf. As one of the top starting pitchers available in an extremely weak class, Wolf is looking at a nice pay day this offseason. After the Los Angeles Dodgers refused to offer arbitration to the veteran hurler, though, his value has only gone up.

Being a Type A free agent, Wolf would have cost any other team that signs him an early draft pick had the Dodgers offered arbitration. Since the franchise did not do so, however, he now no longer comes with any draft pick baggage, which works in his favor tremendously. Rather than foregoing the potential for cheap, team-controlled talent in addition to the financial investment it will take to sign Wolf, any interested suitors will get to protect their first-rounder. With the new-found emphasis and value placed on cheap talent, the opportunity cost of losing an early pick would have influenced a lot of team’s behavior when it came to Wolf, who was almost a lock to get an arbitration offer.

The question, then, is what was Los Angeles thinking? It is pretty obvious that finances are going to be an issue for the franchise in light of the current ownership predicament; the divorce battle between the McCourts has made for entertaining theater. The team organizational leadership can deny that the ensuing legal battle over family assets will not affect the budget for baseball operations decisions. Fearing an inability to pay the price over financial struggles for a one-year deal should Wolf have accepted the offer, however, is the only somewhat legitimate defense for this head-scratching news.

First of all, it is unlikely that Wolf would have accepted. Outside of John Lackey, the free agent pitching class leaves a lot to be desired. In his Top 50 free agent preview, Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors listed the left-hander as the fifth-best free agent overall and the best pitcher not named Lackey. Dierkes even projected that he would command a three-year, $30-M contract. Even if that is an optimistic prediction, there is no denying that he is one of the better arms in a thin class and will receive several lucrative offers.

Wolf truly picked the right time to become a free agent and will never be in such a nice position again. He turned out to be a great signing for the Dodgers after waiting nearly all winter before signing an incentive-laced contract, going 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA, 122 ERA+ and 3.96 Fielding Independent Pitching in 214.1 innings pitched. The 32-year-old did not miss a lot of bats but avoided walks and kept the ball in the park, producing solid rates of 2.44 BB/9 and 1.01 HR/9. Overall, he managed 3.0 Wins Above Replacement, his highest total since he was a member of the Philadelphia Phillies back in 2002. Plus, thanks to his shiny ERA and wins total, the perception is that he was more effective than he actually was in reality. Combined that with the weak market out there, and it is no surprise that several teams have reportedly already expressed a strong interest.

The Dodgers should have understood how unlikely it was for Wolf to accept. While he may have netted more annual dollars in a one-year deal should he have won his case, his value was not going to get anywhere higher if he pitched for one season and became a free agent again next winter. Indeed, at his age, this is his best, and perhaps final, opportunity to be offered a multi-year contract. Thus, he would be foolish not to test the market. Regardless of how different the market has valued veterans in recent past, never again will he be a top three free agent pitcher. As I wrote about last week, the 2011 crop of free agent pitchers is going to be loaded, with potential names like Josh Beckett, Matt Cain, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Javier Vasquez and Brandon Webb having the chance to hit the market. Thus, even if Wolf brought an equally low ERA to the table next winter (doubtful), he would be a middle-tier pitcher who would fall considerably lower on Dierkes’ list, decreasing his market value. The window for him to cash in on his baseball talents will be closing in the neat future, and the time is now for him to set his grandkids’ grandkids up for life.

Thus, it was pretty safe that Wolf would reject. At the least, making an offer was worth the risk given how valuable the two picks would be, especially since Ned Colletti has traded away so much young talent, from Josh Bell to stud catching prospect Carlos Santana, depleting the farm system to help the major league club. Instead, Wolf skates into free agency as a lucky man. In fact, he should send each Frank and Jamie separate Christmas cards if the divorce/financial concerns are indeed what guided this. If this was a pure baseball decision, Ned Colletti deserves one for his incompetence, because having Wolf back for another go of it would not have been a bad thing at all. He is surely going to regress—his .257 batting average on balls in play is .33 points below his career average and his 77.3 % strand rate is unsustainable—and he could break down after throwing so many innings; he had not eclipsed the 200-inning mark since 2003. Even with a pessimistic projection, though, he still would have been worth his contract pretty easily, with minimal downside risk because of the short length of the contract. For a team that could have starting rotation issues and is allegedly looking for a “true ace,” a failure to offer arbitration due to the risk that a pretty good pitcher would come back over a potential raise that he would be worth is asinine.

The Chicago Cubs should have offered Rich Harden arbitration but did not. Considering that Harden could have netted a few prospects this summer, getting nothing for him now is a headscratcher. Compared to the Wolf news, though, it is hardly worth complaining about. I surely expected Los Angeles to decline on Orlando Hudson, who also was worth an offer but was benched in favor of an inferior second baseman. Wolf, though? That should have been a no-brainer.

Wolf had a rough offseason after the Houston Astros failed to deliver on their initial offer last winter. As the top lefty on the market with no draft pick baggage, though, it is good to be Randy Wolf right now. Good for him.

Kelly Shoppach Traded To Rays

2009-12-01T21:12:00.004-05:00

On Sunday, I offered some thoughts on the Tampa Bay Rays’ offseason needs. One of the question marks headed for the Rays heading into 2010 covered, the catcher position, was addressed by a pair of moves today.

Catcher was an obvious black hole for the Rays in 2009. Starter Dioner Navarro struggled through a horrendous season, batting .218/.261/.322 with a 52 OPS+ in a 409 plate appearances. His defense also left some to be desired. While late-summer acquisition Greg Zaun helped out during his limited time with the club, the position represented a huge weakness that needed to be fixed.

Tampa Bay made two decisions today that should help them do so. First, it acquired the offensive-minded Kelly Shoppach from the Cleveland Indians for a player to be named later. Interestingly, Shoppach was the first name listed in Tim Dierkes’ catcher trade market piece over at MLB Trade Rumors. Given the Indians’ tremendous organizational depth at the position—Carlos Santana is one of the best prospects at the position in the baseball and Lou Marson, acquired in the Cliff Lee trade, is close to being major league ready—the right-handed-hitting backstop was expendable and considered by many to be a non-tender candidate. For that reason, the player to be named should not be anything too special. So, while it is hard to evaluate any move without knowing the exact player headed to Cleveland, it appears to be a sound move for Tampa Bay.

Shoppach, 29, has posted a career line of .241/.327/.449 with a 105 OPS+ in 310 games over fine seasons in the majors. He has outstanding power for a catcher (.208 career Isolated Power), his biggest asset, but will never hit for a high batting average and strikes out a ton (37.3 career K%). Even with his deficiencies as a hitter, though, he provides plus output for the position and still gets on base at a decent clip considering his contact issues and low batting average totals.

After spending most of his professional career in the minors, Shoppach became another example of a player busting out at 28. He turned in one of the best offensive performances of any catcher in baseball for the Tribe, slashing .261/.348/.517 with 21 home runs and a 128 OPS+. His average was aided by a .359 batting average on balls in play, but his .256 IsoP and .370 Weighted On-Base Average were extremely impressive. FanGraphs does not account for catcher defense, but he produced 3.5 Wins Above Replacement in just 112 games. Among catchers with at least 200 plate appearances, he ranked seventh in the game in the stat. Equally impressive, only five backstops posted a higher wOBA in what turned out to be a strong year for the position; the breakout performances of Mike Napoli, Chris Iannetta and Geovany Soto combined with the outstanding production from the usual suspects, Joe Mauer and Brian McCann, raised the bar.

As expected, Shoppach came back to earth in the follow-up act. Limited to only 89 games, he hit .214/.335/.399 with 12 homers and a 98 OPS+ in 327 plate appearances. While he is never going to threaten to hit .300, some of his struggles, at least in the batting average department, can be attributed to misfortune. Indeed, his BABIP fell to .286, despite the fact that his line drive rate actually increased from 18.6% to 21.8%. Expect that to come back up. Even with the drop off, he still outperformed Navarro, whose status comes into question now. More than likely, Shoppach, a so-so defender, will find a middle point between his ’08 and ’09 levels, providing above-average offense at the position that will make him worth between 1.5 and 3.0 WAR. If that happens, he will represent nice value to the Rays even as he becomes more expensive through arbitration before entering free agency in 2011. Therefore, the processes that went into the trade were excellent as he was a great target for a team like the Rays to go after.

If the Shoppach signing did not put a cloud over Navarro’s future with the franchise, then its decision to offer Greg Zaun arbitration did. Zaun, who is actually one of the top catchers on the market, is a Type B free agent and will net a sandwich pick if he rejects the offer. If he accepts, though, he provides great depth at the position in a one-year deal. Thus, while a bit surprising seeing as how the club declined his $2.0-M option and now runs the risk of paying him more than that, it was a chance well worth taking due to the minimal risk; bringing him back should have been a priority either way. The left-handed-hitting Zaun would complement Shoppach nicely. If he does accept (no sure thing, as the Seattle Mariners have expressed interest), though, Navarro should be non-tendered a contract, sending him onto his fourth organization.

While Navarro’s future is uncertain, the team catching situation became much clearer today, leaving the Rays with one fewer issue to address for the remainder of the offseason.

Should The Rays Deal Bartlett?

2009-11-30T00:40:00.006-05:00

Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Jason Bartlett had an excellent 2009 campaign. Bartlett, in his second season with the Rays, posted a line of .320/.389/.490 with 14 home runs and a 129 OPS+ in 567 plate appearances. Despite grading out -5.5 runs below average on defense according to FanGraphs, he was worth an incredible 4.8 Wins Above Replacement/$21.7-M. To put that into perspective, only three shortstops—studs Derek Jeter, Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki—ranked higher in WAR.

Considering how scarce quality shortstops are, Tampa Bay is doing quite well for itself at the position. While Bartlett, who made just under $2-M this past season, is due for a nice salary boost in arbitration, he represents great value even with a considerable raise expected and is under control until after 2011. For these reasons, it is not surprising that his name has not surfaced all that much in articles written about potential shortstop trade candidates.

Selling high on Bartlett this winter, however, may be in the Rays’ best interest. For starters, the 29-year-old infielder is unlikely to ever match his offensive output from ’09. Headed into the spring, he had hit only 11 home runs in his entire major league career. While there is chance that his power surge was more than a mirage, his track record suggests that he will not come close to matching that total again. Plus, he had never posted a league-average OPS+ before, either, with totals ranging from 75 to 99 in the four seasons prior.

OPS+ totals by year:

2005: 73
2006: 99
2007: 89
2008: 83
2009: 129

That final number appears to be a pretty big outlier. In looking at Bartlett’s batted ball data, there a few numbers that stick out. His line drive rate really surged, shooting up to a career-best 26.0%. The up tick in line drives partially explains why his .368 batting average on balls in play was .38 points above his career average. Given his speed and ability to leg out infield hits, he has always been able to produce higher BABIPs than league average, but both his line drive rate and luck on balls in play should regress going forward.

According to FanGraphs’ pitch type values, Bartlett became a much more productive hitter against fastballs and sliders. Indeed, going into ’09, he had graded out 17.7 runs below average on heaters and -5.6 runs below average on sliders. He produced 24.3 runs above average on fastballs and 5.0 runs above average on sliders this past season, which is a great sign. Another encouraging sign worth nothing, he swung at fewer pitches outside the strike zone; his O-Swing% fell to 20.9%, coinciding with an improvement in his walk rate (9.7%).

Bartlett’s success was the result of more than good fortune, it seems, but he is still going to fall back. Even if his on-base and power spikes are for real, his offensive value will never be higher than it is right now, in reality and based on perception. The two currently available projections systems, Bill James and CHONE, forecast the following lines for him in 2010.

James: .291/.355/.407, .762 OPS, .337 wOBA
CHONE: .283/.349/.408

The two projections are pretty similar, suggesting that Bartlett, even factoring in a regression, will again be a valuable offensive performer for a shortstop. Thus, even if his defense does not recover, he will likely be worth somewhere in the 3.5 WAR range.

However, defense is another issue to consider. Bartlett is best known for his glove work, even winning Team MVP honors from the local chapter of the BBWAA as a symbol for the Rays’ jump from worst-to-first in team defensive efficiency on the way to the American League pennant in ’08. According to UZR, though, his defense actually regressed to a then-low 2.1, which many attributed to injury limiting his range. Interestingly, the number got only worse in his second season with Tampa Bay, falling to 5.5 UZR and -6.8 UZR/150. While UZR is far from perfect and known to fluctuate wildly from year to year, his total has now headed in the wrong direction for five straight seasons.

2005: 14.4
2006: 11.5
2007: 7.8
2008: 2.1
2009: -5.5

Had Bartlett put up a statistical defensive performance similar to his pre’07 levels, Tulowitzki may have had a run for his money. Given the injury and jump in age, though, it is not surprising that a player would lose a step in the field and it is indeed a concerning trend. Beyond the Boxscore recently published age-adjusted UZR predictions for ’10, forecasting Bartlett to produce a 1.0 UZR and 1.0 UZR/150, which seems reasonable. Even on the optimistic side, however, most likely he will never shave off double digits in runs again as he ages.

All factors considered, Bartlett’s value is definitely at its peak since his defense should continue to regress. The Rays have a legitimate chance of competing in the AL East right now, and losing him will hurt the Rays’ major league product in the short term. Due to that fact, holding onto him and then seeing how the season plays out is the safe play. The opportunity to sell high with an internal reinforcement, Reid Brignac, ready to fill in, though, presents an intriguing possibility.

Brignac has undergone quite a transformation as a prospect. He was once viewed as a potential offensive stud shortstop whose size and defensive limitations would someday move him to third base. In the past two seasons, though, his defense has improved tremendously at the position while he has struggled to adjust to advanced pitching at the higher levels of the minors. Named the best defensive shortstop in the International League by the circuit’s coaches and managers in ’08, many scouts are confident in his chances of becoming an above-average defender at the position in the majors.

However, Brignac hit just .250/.299/.412 with concerning rates of 6.6 BB% and 26.4 K% in his Triple-A debut. Back at Durham for another go of it this spring, he improved his line to .278/.327/.415, cutting down on the strikeouts (16.6 K%) but drawing fewer walks (6.1 BB%). While his plate discipline is a bit of a cause for concern, a .744 Triple-A OPS is hardly terrible for a 23-year-old plus defensive shortstop. As well, he still has impressive pop for a middle infielder as well, with the potential to become a solid offensive contributor at the highest level during his peak years.

Replacing Bartlett with Brignac would certainly cost Tampa Bay a few runs on offense in the near term. James projects the youngster to hit .259/.306/.408 with a .311 wOBA in ’10, a .26-point difference. CHONE is a bit more pessimistic, forecasting a line of .256/.308/.395. If Brignac is as solid in the field as his reputation suggests, however, the defensive aspect could make up for some of the difference. This is where, as a team, trusting what your scouts say is paramount.

Losing Bartlett, or any the other potential trade candidates on the roster, would hurt. He is beloved by the local media and fan base, making any potential move a potential public relations hit. Dealing him if the return makes it worthwhile—Sandy Kazmir had a fine post about what Bartlett could command back in August at DRaysBay—will free up payroll and allow the club to potentially improve in other areas. With contention within grasp, moving him will be difficult, but, by holding onto him, Tampa Bay runs the risk of having his value fall off and eliminating any hope of cashing him in for a nice package of cheap, team-controlled players who could help out elsewhere.

Tampa Bay Rays Offseason Thoughts, Part One

2009-11-29T21:25:00.004-05:00

I’ve now completed offseason previews for the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. Next up is the other powerhouse in the deep American League East, the Tampa Bay Rays.

After defeating the Detroit Tigers 11-7 on August 31, the Rays sat 12 games above .500 at 71-59 and were within striking distance of the American League Wild Card. Any hopes of a repeat pennant quickly faded after Tampa Bay won just three of its first 17 games in September, however, and the club ended up with an 84-78 record. Before the Rays reached the World Series, most TB fans would’ve been thrilled over that mark, but, with newfound expectations, the end results were a disappointment.

Despite the poor finish, the Rays are in a nice position to once again threaten to win 90 games in 2010. Indeed, with most of the core from the 2008 A.L. champions coming back, there are only a few minor tweaks that the front office will look to address. Contending in the A.L. East, perhaps the most competitive division in professional sports, will again prove to be a challenge for low-budget Tampa Bay. The organization boasts one of the more impressive 25-man rosters in baseball, though, and is in good position to contend.

When preparing to write this article, in fact, I was actually surprised at how set the Rays are at most positions. The team infield is what sticks out the most. The four primary infielders for Tampa Bay in ’09—Jason Bartlett, Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena and Ben Zobrist—combined for an incredible 23.2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). There are some really talented infields in the majors, such as the Philadelphia Phillies star trio and the Yankees’ expensive group, but no team can boast those credentials in the WAR stat. Granted, Zobrist spent much of the season in the outfield and the sample size of his defensive data at the keystone is too small to conclude that he’s as talented defensively as the statistic Ultimate Zone Rating suggests. But overall the infield was tremendous.

The Rays’ Team MVP in ’08, Bartlett exceeded even the wildest of projections. He posted a line of .320/.389/.490 with a career-high 14 home runs and a 129 OPS+. Headed into the season, the 29-year-old infielder had 11 homers to his name for his entire major league career and had never eclipsed a league-average OPS+. Needless to say, his performance was quite a pleasant development and is unlikely to sustain itself. He was aided by a .368 batting average on balls in play, .38 points higher than his career average. Bartlett did improve his walk rate, though, and, even with his defense dropping off for the fourth straight season (-5.5 UZR) according to advanced metrics, was the most valuable shortstop (4.8 WAR) on the circuit not named Derek Jeter.

With Longoria locked up to one of the most team-friendly contracts in history, third base is one position that’s set in stone for a long time. The ’08 Rookie of the Year avoided a sophomore slump, slashing .281/.364/.526 with 33 homers. Longoria also played an exceptional third base, leading the league with an 18.5 UZR and 19.2 UZR/150 on the way to winning his first-ever Gold Glove. When factoring in batting, fielding and positional considerations, he produced 7.2 WAR overall. While FanGraphs’ dollar valuations are far from perfect, he came close to exceeding the value of his entire extension in ‘09 alone; his production translated to a whopping $32.5-M.

When Pena went down in the first week of September, Tampa Bay really began to scuffle. The power-hitting first baseman, a free agent next winter, was enjoying another fine campaign before being hit with a pitch on his left hand on September 7. His batting average fell to .227, but he drew 87 walks and smashed a league-leading 39 homers in 570 plate appearances.

Then there was Zobrist, whose offensive transformation from slap-hitting singles hitter to legitimate power threat made for one of the better storylines of ’09. Like a lot of hitters, he enjoyed a breakout in his age-28 season but nobody could have expected that he would belt 27 homers while posting a 146 OPS+. While he’ll come back down to earth, his plate discipline has always been excellent throughout his professional career and he should again be a force in the middle of the Rays’ lineup. He’s not quite as good in the field as UZR suggests, though, so he was probably not the most valuable player in the A.L. like WAR indicates. However, his bat alone will make him one of the better second sackers around in ’10.

With such a strong infield returning, Tampa Bay was able to part ways with Akinori Iwamura, a solid contributor since coming over from Japan in 2007, without much hesitation. Iwamura is a nice player, but he was definitely expendable given the team’s depth in the infield outside of the four projected starters; Willy Aybar, Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez, a key chip in the Scott Kazmir trade, provide excellent insurance. In making the trade, Tampa Bay fetched a cheap reliever, Jesse Chavez, who could be another cheap piece in the bullpen. With three capable fill-ins, the franchise may look to sell high on Bartlett or Pena. Doing so would hurt the team’s chances of competing in the short term, though, so the front office will have to weigh that before pulling the trigger.

The Rays are set at nearly every other position on the diamond as well. Left fielder Carl Crawford enters what will likely be his last season with the organization. Crawford, expected to be one of the prizes of next year’s free agent class, will be a name linked to trade rumors from now until July 31 (or until he’s dealt). With his stellar outfield defense and offensive skill set, he’s one of the majors’ best outfielders and should fetch a bounty of prospects if traded.

After a disappointing ’08 campaign, Crawford rebounded with a line of .305/.364/.452 and produced the highest Weighed On-Base Average, .367, of his career. He also produced a stellar 17.6 UZR and 17.5 UZR.150, bringing his WAR up to a career-high 5.5. Clearly, then, losing him will hurt the Rays’ chances of overtaking the Red Sox or Yankees to return to the postseason. However, his option will make up a large fraction of the team’s payroll for ’10, and he’s unlikely to be re-signed given what he should fetch next offseason. Thus, the Rays will be forced to make a difficult decision when weighing the pros and cons of a potential move.

Crawford is a fan favorite, leader in the clubhouse and is one of the best players in the history of the franchise, a player who provided the few bright sports during the days of the Devil Rays. If he can net a package led by two elite-level prospects, though, trading him may be the best thing for the franchise. Right now, it’s just too early to tell.

If it were up to me, I would keep Crawford in hopes of making a run next season—the window is going to be small, even with such an intelligent front office—and would consider trading him before the deadline only if the team has fallen out of the race. Stud outfield prospect Desmond Jennings is close to making an impact and could slide right into the mix, but he still needs a bit more seasoning in the minors. Plus, while Crawford’s value is at its peak now, the team is much better with him in the lineup than without. With a few breaks along the way, it has a realistic chance of again leaving one of the game’s financial powers on the outside looking in come October. If that happens, the Rays will then collect (assuming Crawford puts up another good performance; he projects as a Type B right now, because of the ’08 struggles) two compensation picks when he leaves via free agency. What to do with Crawford, though, will surely be the most pertinent question facing the franchise for much of the next calendar year. An extension is a possibility, too, but for the dollars likely required, it would be foolish for a team with limited resources to lock up such a high percentage of its payroll into a single player.

In center, the talented B.J. Upton took a step backwards in ’09. Following his sterling postseason performance, many expected Upton to produce a long-awaited breakout full-season performance. Some even labeled him a sleeper for MVP going into the spring. Unfortunately, he didn’t live up to the billing, hitting just .241/.313/.373 with a putrid 79 OPS+. His plus defense in center field (11.0 UZR, 11.8 UZR/150) kept his value afloat, but his lack of production at the top of the lineup crippled the offense at stretches until manager Joe Maddon finally dropped him to the nine hole.

There have been a lot of articles suggesting that the Rays, with Jennings on the way, should trade Upton. Tampa Bay would be selling low, though, which would be foolish. He’s still relatively cheap, talented and an asset with the glove even if he doesn’t rebound at the plate. Other teams are wise to ask, because acquiring Upton would be a tremendous buy-low, but I don’t see him being moved. However, he’ll surely need to pick it up on offense for the Rays to make another run.

Gabe Kapler was brought back to platoon against lefties, whom he kills. Kapler, signed to a one-year, $1.05-M contract, will form a platoon with Matt Joyce, who came over for Edwin Jackson. The pair projects to provide plus defense in right field, and Joyce has the potential to breakout offensively.

Outside of Upton, the other two notable disappointments were the performances of designated hitter Pat Burrell and catcher Dioner Navarro. Burrell appeared to be a shrewd signing for the Rays last winter, but he seemingly forgot how to hit. His .221/.315/.367 line was awful, and, while the dollars involved in the signing were viewed as discount last December, his salary still represented a large percentage of the team payroll. Tampa Bay is in no position to get burned by a single player, but, while the processes that went into the decision were sound, the results ended up leading to that happening.

The Rays, hoping to swap bad contracts, could end up sending Burrell to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for Milton Bradley, who was a favorite of the club last winter. This will only come to fruition, however, if the Cubs eat a significant portion of the remaining money owed to Bradley. Chicago wants to wash its hands of the disgruntled outfielder, but why they would add a defensively challenged, should-be DH coming off a 78 OPS+-performance is beyond me. There should be no incentive to make that happen, but props to Tampa Bay if they can pull it off. Bradley has his issues, but his struggles were magnified last season, he’s an on-base machine and could really do well if given the chance to DH. The one primary concern (more so than his personal baggage) with him is his inability to stay on the field, but playing the outfield sparingly will give his knees some needed rest.

Should Burrell stay, there’s only so much the Rays can do. Plus, he should regress to the mean—in a good way—since he cannot possibly be that bad. While he has “old man” skills, he has incentive financially to pick it up.

An All-Star just a season earlier, Navarro was horrendous. He “hit” .218/.261/.322, with his OPS+ dropping 48 points to 52. Given his youth—he’s still 25, even though he’s now on his third organization—he should get another chance and is unlikely to be non-tendered. Given the question mark at the position, the Rays would be wise to bring back Greg Zaun, whose option was declined in hopes that they could bring him back at a cheaper rate. Catcher is one area where the Rays should look to improve, of course, perhaps through a trade by dealing from an area of strength given how weak the free agent catcher class is.

Bartlett, Crawford and Pena are the three players whom the Rays would be selling high on, but Brignac could fetch a nice return, too. While his bat hasn’t come around like many hoped, he’s still cheap, a fine defender and has pretty good pop for the position. Thus, it would take an impressive package for Tampa Bay to part with him.

The Rays had an inconsistent offense in ’09, and clearly Bartlett and Zobrist are going to come down from their levels. However, Burrell (or any replacement in the DH spot) and Upton should pick it up, as should whoever ends up as the starting catcher. With Fernando Perez and the backup infielders mentioned above, the bench should also be strength on both sides of the ball. Thus, on paper, the team projects to have an above-average defense and fairly potent offensive attack.

In part two, I’ll take on the bullpen, which came back down to earth as expected, the starting rotation and a few prospects (Jeremy Hellickson, Jennings) who could play a major role in Tampa Bay next season.

Fast Forward: 2011 Free Agent Class Is Loaded

2009-11-28T22:38:00.007-05:00

The current crop of MLB free agents is extremely weak. Outside of a few exceptions–Jason Bay, Chone Figgins, Matt Holliday, John Lackey–the class lacks high-impact talent. As a result, many teams may choose to avoid spending a lot of money on the open market and look elsewhere to improve for the short term. The free agent class of 2011, however, is loaded with elite players, many of whom will be entering or are in their prime years. Thus, it would not be surprise to see several high-revenue teams such as the New York Yankees–as I discussed here–simply wait to open their purse strings until next offseason when some real jewels become available.

Here is a brief preview of some of the potential top free agents for ‘11 (list courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors), including players with options. Keep these names in mind when watching the market unfold this winter. Only the top talents at each position will be listed.

Catchers

Victor Martinez: Martinez is a below-average defensive catcher, but he can really mash. Even if he forced to move to first base, his bat will be an asset. The Boston Red Sox picked up the no-brainer option on his contract for 2010, and, if he puts up big numbers in his first full season with the club, he could be looking at a nice contract.

Joe Mauer: Mauer finally got his MVP last week. After winning the slash stats triple crown, the left-handed hitting catcher was a pretty easy choice; seriously, what was the one writer who picked Miguel Cabrera thinking? Now, though, the question becomes whether or not the Minnesota Twins will be able to re-sign the three-time batting champion. Considering his age, position and offensive resume, he could be looking at a record-setting contract, but his agent, Ron Shapiro, is not the type to look to break a record. Shapiro’s most notable clients, from Kirby Puckett to Cal Ripken Jr., all took relative discounts to remain with their original teams, so that could happen again with Mauer, a local hero who was a three-sport star at nearby Cretin-Derham Hall High School in St. Paul. However, he is going to command a huge number either way, likely making up a large percentage of the Twins’ payroll if the franchise indeed locks him up to an extension. If that occurs, expect a deal to get done well before Mauer hits free agency.

First baseman

Lance Berkman: Berkman is one of the majors’ top-hitting first baseman, but, depending on where the Houston Astros fall on the success cycle going into ‘11, there is no guarantee that the club will pick up his $15-M option. If the Astros choose to buy him out, he will add to a list of talented stars available.

Derek Lee: Lee will be entering his late-30s, but he has continued to produce with his bat. The Chicago Cubs’ slugger had a fine season in 2009, hitting .306/.393/.579 with 35 home runs and 111 RBIs. While he will likely regress a bit in his walk year, he still should be an attractive name.

Lyle Overbay: The Toronto Blue Jays reportedly made Overbay available earlier this offseason in a potential trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The swap was nixed over medicals, though, and the left-handed-hiting first baseman will man the position for the Blue Jays again in ‘10 barring another trade. He is a decent defensive player, with fine on-base skills, but he will fall on the wrong side of 35 in the first year of his new contract.

Carlos Pena: I would not be surprised to see the Tampa Bay Rays make Pena available in the near future. The fan favorite was bothered by injuries in the second half of ‘09 and his defense regressed according to advanced metrics, but he still has plus power and on-base skills. While he represents value for the Rays–he is definitely worth his contract–the front office may look to cash in on his services before he hits free agency. Certainly, Tampa Bay will be a better club with Pena at first base, so it will have to weigh its chances of competing in the American League East in ‘10. If the Rays make another run, holding onto Pena and collecting draft pick compensation (if he puts up a good year, he should be a Type A) once he walks is the most likely scenario. Once his current pact is up, though, it is unlikely that he will return; granted, Pena, a Scott Boras client, is said to love the Tampa Bay area.

Albert Pujols: The St. Louis Cardinals have a $16.5-M option on Pujols for ‘11. It is safe to say that the Cards will pick that up if they have not locked him up for the long term by then, which should be a priority for the franchise.

Second baseman

Mark Ellis: Ellis, an elite defensive second baseman, will become a free agent if the Oakland A’s do not pick up his 6.5-M option. He will probably be worth that easily, but nothing is certain with the A’s. Plus, he has regressed as a hitter for three straight seasons and saw his UZR/150 drop to 2.4 as injuries limited him to just 105 games at second base for the A’s in ‘09.

Akinori Iwamura: Recently traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates, Iwamura has no power but is a solid defender and has plus on-base skills.

Shortstops

Derek Jeter: There is simply no way that Jeter leaves the New York Yankees. The Yankees will probably overpay to keep him chasing 3,000 in Pinstripes, but they can afford to do so. Indeed, it would be shocking to see him sign to play elsewhere. While Jeter will likely never put up a 7.4 WAR performance again, he showed in ‘09 that he is still an elite player, putting together a legitimate MVP-level campaign by hitting .334/.406/.465 while playing his best defense in some time.

Jose Reyes: The New York Mets will surely pick up Reyes’ $11.5-M option for ‘11, but he will be one of the prizes of the free agent class of 2012.

Jimmy Rollins: The Philadelphia Phillies have an $8.5-M option on Rollins, who had a down season offensively but still played a fine shortstop. Barring a major collapse, Philadelphia will pick that up while the window for a championship is still open.

Third baseman

Brandon Inge: Inge is an elite defender and great athlete, but he is also a below-average hitter for the position. After getting off to a hot start and earning a trip to the ‘09 All-Star game, he really faded down the stretch and finished with a poor line of .230/.314/.406. While Inge blasted 27 homers, he posted an 86 OPS+ and has now fallen below league-average, 100, in the stat, for four straight years.

Mike Lowell: Assuming that Lowell’s back holds up, his declining defense is a major concern going forward. His bat does not play nearly as well at DH/first base, where he will likely need to be moved.

Aramis Ramirez: Ramirez has a $14.6-M player option for ‘11. Seeing how the market has treated free agents in recent past, it would be a surprising development if he decides against returning to the Cubs before hitting free agency the following offseason.

Scott Rolen: I still have no idea why the Cincinnati Reds acquired Rolen last July if they are looking to shed payroll now. The veteran star is getting old, has had shoulder issues that have sapped his power and will make up far too much of the team’s payroll this season. He is still a fine defender at the position, though, so he should be a name worth considering come next November.

Left fielders

Carl Crawford: The Rays may look to deal Crawford as well, because there is no way that they will be willing to offer what it will take to sign him. That would come at the cost of hurting Tampa Bay’s short-term chances of success, though, so a Crawford trade is no sure thing. Regardless of where he ends up playing out ‘10, he is going to get a massive contract in free agency. When factoring in his incredible defense in left field, he is one the premier players in the majors. The teams that sign Bay or Holliday will not be able to make a run at Crawford, so that should be in the back of general manager’s minds when pursuing the top left fielders in the current class.

David DeJesus: DeJesus is a pretty nice player, and not just for the Kansas City Royals. If I were Dayton Moore, I would make him available to see what kind of return I could get for him right now. Kansas City has no chance at contention next season and is unlikely to play any meaningful games in ‘11, either, so if they can cash in an asset for a few team-controlled, young players, they should pounce. His value will never be higher than it will be come July, since he will not be a strict rental with a reasonable $6.5-M option for the following season.

Adam Dunn: Perhaps Dunn would fit better in the DH category here. He is still a fine hitter, with great pop and on-base skills. His defense in left field is horrendous, though, killing his overall value. As a DH, he could be an attractive piece for an AL club looking for help at the position.

Manny Ramirez: Ramirez’s bat speed is declining, but he is still a great hitter. Like Dunn, though, he is probably better suited for an AL team when he becomes a free agent, since his defense is also so poor.

Center fielders

Nothing to see here.

Right fielders

Jayson Werth: Jose Guillen (garbage defense, out machine), Brad Hawpe and Magglio Ordonez will be more attractive when they are not attached to ridiculous contracts, but Werth is definitely the best right fielder available. He has always been able to crush lefties, but, upon getting an opportunity to play every night, he turned into a well above-average right fielder. He has solid power, can take a walk and is a plus defender at the position.

Designated hitters

There are brand names like Pat Burrell, Jason Kubel and David Ortiz, but that trio leaves a lot to be desired and will be getting old. Burrell was a major disappointment in his Tampa Bay debut, has “old-man” skills and will be a year older. If he cannot rebound, perhaps in a new city if he is dealt this winter, his chances at another multi-year contract could be nonexistent. Ortiz, meanwhile, is aging and is a candidate for a swift fall from grace. Boston must be thrilled that his contract will come off the books, though.

Starting pitchers

Josh Beckett: Will the Red Sox lock Beckett up this year?

Matt Cain: Cain, a legit front-line starter, has a vesting option for ‘11, which will likely be triggered. When he hits the market, though, there will be a strong market for his services.

Roy Halladay: The team that trades for Halladay would be wise to work out an extension with the star right-hander. Otherwise, parting with the team-controlled talent that it will take to make a trade happen–for the Yankees, a prospect along the lines of Jesus Montero–will not be worth a one-year rental.

Cliff Lee: The Phillies may break their policy of not offering pitchers more than three years to keep Lee, a stud lefty coming off postseason heroics. The 2007 American League Cy Young winner is going to command a deal similar to A.J. Burnett, if not higher.

Javier Vasquez: Vasquez, who always produces excellent strikeout rates, could also be moved before he hits free agency given the Atlanta Braves’ surplus of starting pitching. He is a lot better than the casual fan thinks he is, though, and the Braves would be foolish to do so.

Brandon Webb: The D’Backs picked up Webb’s option for this season, so, after looking at the medicals, they obviously feel that he is in good shape physically. If the former National League Cy Young winner can stay healthy and put together a strong performance, he will be one of the better starters on the market. If not, he will be a medium-risk, high-reward type and will be worth taking a flier on in a short-term, incentive-laced deal.

Relievers

Brian Fuentes: If Fuentes finished 55 games for the Los Angeles Angels this upcoming season, he will be back for another year at $9-M. If not, he will hit the market and will probably not get anywhere near that on an annual dollars level.

Mariano Rivera: Rivera cannot pitch forever, can he? Well, if he does, he will definitely be doing so for the Yankees. He could decide to call it a career before then.

Huston Street

Kerry Wood

Grant Balfour

Jeremy Affeldt

Conclusion

Clearly, even with just some of the names, it is apparent that next offseason’s class is far superior to the group of players currently on the market. Given the supply of quality players, prices should be reasonable for teams looking to upgrade at certain positions; third base is one example where this year’s class is actually stronger. Some of these players must be ticked that they missed out on being a free agent this winter, when pitchers like Randy Wolf are considered top free agents. For teams not quite ready to get over the hump, though, avoiding any major free agent moves and waiting for the next go-round could be a wise strategy.

With Alex Gonzalez Off The Market, What Do Boston Red Sox Do Now?

2009-11-27T22:55:00.005-05:00

Last week, I wrote about the Boston Red Sox’s offseason needs. One of the main areas covered was the shortstop position, which has been a revolving door for the Red Sox since Nomar Garciaparra was traded to the Chicago Cubs back in 2004. When I wrote the article, it seemed likely that the club would bring back veteran Alex Gonzalez to start in 2010, with Jed Lowrie serving as the backup. Boston chose to decline Gonzalez’s option for next season, but many felt that that the team would eventually re-sign the veteran infielder at a lower price and have him serve as a stopgap until a more permanent solution (Jose Iglesisas?) takes over for good.

Now that Gonzalez has signed with the Toronto Blue Jays, however, that option is no longer on the table for the Red Sox. Instead, he will head up north to Toronto to be the everyday shortstop ahead of another middle infielder of the all-field, no-hit variety, John McDonald, who was signed to a two-year deal earlier in the week.

According to sources, Boston was planning on offering up to $3-M for Gonzalez but wanted to explore other options before doing so. Gonzalez did not want to wait, choosing to take the guaranteed money and starting job. Seeing how the market unfolded last offseason, it is hard to fault him for doing so. His decision to sign elsewhere, though, limits the Red Sox’s search for a shortstop. The free agent market at the position is extremely weak, and, barring a trade, the prospects for a replacement are pretty bleak.

Of course, Gonzalez is hardly a stud player. He is a terrible hitter who boasts an anemic career line of .247/.294/.395 and paltry 78 OPS+. While he can flirt with a decent batting average, he offers little in the way of power or walks and has not posted an OPS+ above league average in 11 major league seasons. Thus, while he had a pretty solid run at the plate in his short second stint in Boston, losing him will do little to hurt the offense.

Most of Gonzalez’s value, though, comes from his fine defense up the middle. While he is not the same defender that he was during his prime, his fielding ability makes him an asset. The Red Sox ranked near the bottom of the majors in team defensive efficiency in 2009, and up-the-middle defense was an issue. For that reason, bringing back Gonzalez for his glove would have been a defendable decision despite his shortcomings as a hitter.

Common sense, and a few recent reports, suggests that Boston will now turn its focus and make a hard push at the prized free agent in a weak class, Marco Scutaro, who is coming off by far the best performance of his career. However, Scutaro comes with some red flags. As discussed in the previous piece, his power breakout was a mirage, and he will almost certainly regress considerably from his ’09 offensive levels. He is also better suited at the keystone, his natural position, and is not the same defender that Gonzalez is. Again, improving the defense should be a major priority, making that a concern.

Above all else, though, Scutaro is not going to come cheap. As the top shortstop available in free agency, a player with legit on-base skills and a decent offensive resume for the position, he could generate a strong demand for his services. Many expect him to command a three-year deal, in fact. As well, he is a Type A free agent, meaning that he will cost whichever team that signs him two early compensation picks if the Blue Jays, as expected, offer him arbitration on Monday. While that could bring down the price tag in terms of dollars and perhaps years, the opportunity cost of losing those team-controlled prospects is stark. I am not so sure that he is worth a significant contract and the picks if I am the Red Sox. He is 33 years old, his best seasons are behind him and he is not an elite defensive shortstop, something the Red Sox could use at this stage. Now, if Toronto declines to offer him arbitration (since the Blue Jays will not want to carry three shortstops, a possibility if he accepts), that will change matters. Odds are, that will not happen, since the real genius behind the move for Toronto is the potential chance to steal two first-round picks from a division rival.

Granted, Boston is expected to offer arbitration to Jason Bay and Billy Wagner, Type A free agents who will net picks if they decide to reject and offset the cost of bringing in a player such as Matt Holliday or Scutaro. Either way, losing draft picks is still an issue, even if the picks are not first rounders; the Red Sox are not afraid to go over slot to add talent in the later rounds, so getting premium talent with any picks in the first few rounds is a possibility. Picks aside, Scutaro, even with his strengths, will not represent good value either way; he and his representation now have leverage with Gonzalez off the table.

The free agent shortstop class is indeed awful, which cannot be said enough. Miguel Tejada is a should-be third baseman whose home/road splits are a cause for concern. Tejada, of course, would do little to cure the Red Sox’s defensive woes from a year ago. Two of the other solid defenders in the class, Omar Vizquel and Jack Wilson, are off the market. Bobby Crosby is terrible. As is Khalil Greene, who boasts an on-base percentage similar to Gonzalez’s and is a below-average defender.

Outside of Scutaro, then, there are two other candidates: Orlando Cabrera and Adam Everett. Cabrera is unlikely to return to Boston and comes with some red flags of his own. According to UZR, he cost his teams close to 15 runs on defense this past season—granted, just a year earlier, he posted a stellar 14.0 UZR and 8.9 UZR/150, so he will definitely fall somewhere in between going forward—and several talent evaluators confirmed that he lost a step in the field. At the plate, most of his value comes from an ability to hit for a hollow batting average. Like Gonzalez, he has minimal power and below-average plate discipline. The 34-year-old brings a career line of .275/.322/.398 with him to perhaps his seventh major league organization. Plus, signing him will not come easy, either, as he is one of the more attractive middle infielders available on the open market, still has a sterling defensive reputation and is viewed as a gamer by many within the industry.

Unlike Scutaro, Cabrera does not come with any draft pick baggage. After waiting in draft pick compensation purgatory all last offseason, his agent wisely made sure that would not happen again this winter by putting a clause into his last contract that prevented his previous team from offering salary arbitration. Thus, he should get paid pretty well this winter. I would personally be surprised to see him end up back in Boston, though, even if he does not cost the picks.

Everett, on the other hand, is worth considering solely for his consistently incredible glove work. As has been well documented, he cannot hit for his life depended on it. He posted a garbage line of .238/.288/.325 in ’09, collecting just 24 extra-base hits. Despite being one of the worst hitters in the league, though, he still has value because of the extraordinary defense at a premium position. The Detroit Tigers’ pitching staff certainly reaped the benefits of an improved defensive unit, and it started with the addition of Everett, who posted an 8.9 UZR and 9.7 UZR/150. He is going to come cheap, and, for his ability to shave off runs on the other side of the ball, could be worth considering for Boston if it does not wish to pay the steep price in dollars and draft picks for Scutaro.

No, Everett is not as good overall as Gonzalez, who, even with his own shortcomings on offense, is the better hitter. But he could definitely help a team defense that converted only 67.9 percent of batted balls hit into play into outs and is again likely to be hurt by having an aging Mike Lowell at third base. If Boston can re-sign Bay, bring in Holliday or gain another slugger somewhere, the loss on offense that comes with employing Everett may not be as a great as the added benefits on the opposite end when forecasting how many runs the team will allow/score. A combination of Everett and Lowrie, while nothing special, could indeed be manageable for the short term.

Obviously, none of these solutions are ideal. The best bet might be for the franchise to make a trade. There are some intriguing names—Reid Brignac, Stephen Drew, Yunel Escobar—that could be available via that route, but the price for each of them will be extremely high. If the Red Sox do make a hard push at Roy Halladay, which seems more hype than anything else to me, then it is doubtful that they will be willing to give up enough in terms of prospects to land one of those players. It could happen, and we are still early in the offseason. But, needless to say, it would be a mistake to go into the season with Lowrie and Tug Hullet, a recently acauired on-base machine whose defense is poor, as the two top internal candidates.

Should be fun to see it play out, but Theo Epstein has his work cut out for him.

On the Blue Jays’ end:

With the signing, the Blue Jays will now go into spring training with the exact same left side of the infield that the Cincinnati Reds ran out for much of last spring, Gonzalez and Edwin “E-5” Encarnacion. Toronto, of course, is hoping to get better results than the sub-replacement level output the pair provided Cincinnati before each player was shipped to their new teams in July. Adding Gonzalez was a bit surprising, since they just locked up a similar player in McDonald, but this does pretty much force Boston’s hands a bit to go after Scutaro, who will net the franchise two early draft picks. Gonzalez should be a nice addition on defense, but he really is a marginal hitter who could lose a step with age. Not a bad decision for Toronto, by any means, and his addition should help the pitching staff. The franchise will not contend anytime soon, of course, and adding Gonzalez will hardly put them over the top. However, these types of moves do little to set the finances back, even though they could end up paying just under $9-M for two defense-first type shortstops over the next two seasons.

Jon Heyman Throws Stones From A Glass House

2009-11-23T00:29:00.003-05:00

Sports Illustrated senior writer Jon Heyman posted the following on his Twitter account shortly after it was announced that Tim Lincecum won the 2009 National League Cy Young:

i dont mean to pick on the voters. but how do 2 of them leave chris carpenter off the ballot entirely? #dumbsportswriters

Heyman felt that Chris Carpenter deserved to win the award and was directly calling out Baseball Prospectus writer Will Carroll and ESPN baseball analyst Keith Law. The most entertaining part about this was the #dumbsportswriters used to end the tweet. I’m not going to focus on Keith Law, a trained scout who has an MBA from Carnegie Mellon, in this post, as R.J. Anderson already covered that angle beautifully. Also, I don’t wish to rehash why wins are a poor statistic for judging pitcher effectiveness. We’re in the year 2009, and that should go without saying; the object of the game is for teams to win games, not pitchers, who are charged with preventing the opposing team from scoring as few runs as possible. Rather, I want to shed light on the fact that, when it comes to voting for postseason awards, Heyman shouldn’t be questioning the logic of any other writer based on his track record. I really didn’t want to call him out, but his classless one-man smear campaign against Law on Twitter makes him fair game.

First, let’s start with Heyman’s 2008 awards column. Here were his top five choices for National League Most Valuable Player.

1. Manny Ramirez
2. CC Sabathia
3. Ryan Howard
4. Brad Lidge
5. Albert Pujols

Heyman has frequently stated his preference to vote for players on contending teams when it comes to postseason awards. He certainly was guided by that mindset when choosing his ’08 N.L. MVP. His first four selections all played for playoff-bound teams, but only one of those players, Howard, ranked in the top 30 in the statistic Wins Above Replacement. Clearly, Heyman would never use a stat like WAR in his analysis, seemingly only going after players on contending clubs who have high RBI or win totals. He’s a walking-talking cliché in that regard, the traditional baseball writer who does exactly what is expected of them.

Ramirez and Sabathia were each dominant the stretch, helping their respective clubs reach the playoffs. Each player only spent a half season in the Senior Circuit, however, making them ridiculous choices. Howard led the league in home runs and RBIs, the traditional voters’ wet dream for an MVP choice. Although he finished second in the end, his place on that list is also laughable. The most ridiculous argument of them all, however, is his placing a relief pitcher, Lidge, so high. The Philadelphia Phillies closer had a dominant season, posting a 225 ERA+ in 72 appearances, but he only logged 69.1 innings. It’s absurd to think that a player who appeared in so few innings could be one of the four most valuable players in the league.

Interestingly, there were two Phillies in his top five. The most valuable—defining value as doing things that lead to wins—player on the club, however, finished ninth with Heyman. That would be star second baseman Chase Utley, a plus defender at the keystone who posted a line of .292/.380/.535 with a 135 OPS+. Utley finished second in the league with an incredible 8.1 WAR; his teammate on the right side of the Phillies’ infield, Howard, produced 3.3 WAR, taking a hit for his position and below-average defense.

Plus, Heyman somehow believed that Lidge’s 69.0 relief innings were more valuable than the 223.0 innings that Lincecum gave the San Francisco Giants, the 216.0 innings that Dan Haren threw for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and so on. It’s also asinine to think that Lidge was even the most valuable pitcher on his own team when Cole Hamels posted a 142 ERA+ in 227.1 innings.

The real kicker, though, is that Heyman placed Albert Pujols fifth on his ballot. Fifth. He felt that a relief pitcher was more valuable than the most productive position player in the game. Seriously, he went with Lidge over Pujols. If there were ever an egregious decision worth calling a writer out on, it would be that. Every voter interprets value in their own way, but if the interpretation leads to such a faulty conclusion, then said writer needs to go back to the drawing board.

Pujols slashed .357/.462/.654 with 37 homers and 117 RBIs while providing top-notch defense at first base; he was named the Fielding Bible winner at the position and was worth 8.5 runs above average. He also led the league with a whopping 190 OPS+, 50 points higher than Howard, an inferior defender. Overall, he registered an incredible 8.9 WAR, making the award a no-brainer, but somehow Heyman didn’t deem Pujols worthy of his vote.

The common denominators with most of the players Heyman selected for the award were players who played for contenders, produced high RBI totals and had signature moments in the second half (Ryan Braun, Carlos Delgado, ect…).

As poor as those selections were, Heyman found away to outdo himself when it came to the American League. Here are his top five.

1. Francisco Rodriguez
2. Carlos Quentin
3. Dustin Pedroia
4. Justin Morneau
5. Kevin Youkilis

Next to Rodriguez in the column, Heyman wrote: “An alltime great season with a record 62 saves.”

The funny thing is Rodriguez actually produced one of his worst performances in years. His saves record was the function of opportunity, as he also set the benchmark for most save chances. The Los Angeles Angels played in a number of close games due to their middling offense and outstanding run prevention efforts, leading to many easy save chances for Rodriguez. In reality, his K/9 and K/BB rates dropped to five-year lows, and he produced his highest FIP, eliminating factors beyond his control, since 2003. He certainly was an incredibly valuable reliever, producing 1.8 WAR, but naming him the MVP off of the 68.1 innings that he provided was so devoid of logic that it’s unintentionally comical. Pedroia, who led the circuit with 6.6 WAR, should have topped the list, but he was at least in the top five in the column. Two glaring omissions from his top 10, however, were outfielders Nick Markakis and Grady Sizemore, who rounded out the top three in WAR. Heyman thought that the defensively challenged Jermaine Dye was more valuable than that pair, putting him eighth most likely because the Chicago White Sox made the postseason unlike Markakis’ and Sizemore’s teams.

Also puzzling, Heyman ranked Morneau—as many writers do, again falling for the old RBI trick—ahead of the league batting champ, Joe Mauer. Mauer posted the exact same 134 OPS+ as Morneau from the more physically demanding position, catcher. Given traditionalists’ love of RBIs, especially from first baseman on playoff contenders, that’s understandable. But he also included another Twin on his list before Mauer, closer Joe Nathan. His reasoning behind that decision: “another great, underappreciated Twins star.” I, too, agree that Nathan is a fine reliever who gets overlooked on the national level, but it goes back to the innings issue. Plus, if there was any relief pitcher worthy of a vote in ’08, it was Mariano Rivera. Indeed, Rivera was considerably better than Nathan and Rodriguez, posting a 259 ERA+ in 70.2 innings pitched. WAR isn’t the end all, be all stat by any means, but ranked first among relievers with 3.1 WAR while Rodriguez ranked seventh.

I cannot speak on behalf of Heyman, but if I were to bet on it, I would say that he relied on one stat to base his top three relievers: saves.

Save totals for the three pitchers:

Rodriguez: 62
Nathan: 39
Rivera: 39

For a tie-breaker, Heyman went to ERA, where Nathan had a slight edge (1.33 to 1.40) over Rivera. Basing an award on basic stats, though, it’s interesting that he would overlook that K-Rod blew nine saves, Nathan six. Rivera, on the other hand, only coughed up one. Regardless, no closer deserved to be in the top 10. Heyman chose two, each of whom wasn’t as valuable as the great Rivera.

Heyman continued to baffle in his NL Cy Young ballot, leaving off Lincecum, Haren and Webb, the three most valuable pitchers in the league based on WAR. Here was his final three.

1. Johan Santana
2. Sabathia
3. Lidge

Santana was a defensible decision. While many of his peripherals continued to head south, the left-handed put up a fine performance in his first year with the New York Mets. He posted a 166 ERA+ and 3.51 FIP in 234.1 innings pitched, producing 4.8 WAR. However, leaving Lincecum, who logged 223.0 innings pitched and paced the league with 7.5 WAR, off in favor of a pitcher who pitched such a minimal amount of innings (Lidge) was ludicrous, perhaps certifiably insane. That perfect saves streak was too difficult for him to pass up, it seems, but at least he offered this as a consolation: “Though tough to leave out Webb and especially Lincecum (18-5, with a league-leading 265 strikeouts) in this year with at least five deserving candidates.”

Outside of choosing the seventh-best reliever third in the Cy Young, Heyman made the right picks. Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay made it that easy, though, as they were legitimately the best two pitchers in the league and happened to have the ERA and wins that Heyman covets.

This year, Heyman did a little bit better at picking the winners—Zack Greinke, Mauer and Pujols were no brainers in their respective categories—but some of his top 10 picks continued to baffle. He again put Utley ninth on his ballot, despite the fact the Phillies star finished second on the circuit in WAR. As well, he left the second-best hitter in the N.L., Prince Fielder, off the ballot completely, perhaps because the Milwaukee Brewers weren’t contenders. Sorry, Prince, your teammates weren’t talented enough to make the Heyman awards column. What is this amateur hour?

In the AL MVP, Heyman made the right choice with Mauer. Since he led the league in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage as a catcher, though, he was kind of a gimme.

Then Heyman actually snubbed Derek Jeter, naming him sixth and behind teammate Mark Teixeira, who he had as the runner-up. Jeter at 35 had his best statistical season defensively and continued to provide outstanding offense for a shortstop, producing 7.4 WAR. He was the most valuable Yankee by far, but Teixeira had the RBIs that Heyman loves.

Bobby Abreu was picked seventh, seemingly because Mike Scioscia gave the quote about how he was Angels’ most valuable player and made for a good story. However, Abreu continued to play an abysmal right field, killing his value. As much of a boost as he provided to that offense—his OBP jolt was huge—he doesn’t objectively deserve to be considered for this award when factoring in all facets of the game. Plus, he had Sabathia and Justin Verlander eighth and ninth, respectively, ahead of Greinke, who led the league in WAR.

Above all else, Heyman’s most obvious mistake was ignoring Zorilla, Ben Zobrist. I can see not putting him in the top three, but not naming him altogether is criminal. The versatile Tampa Bay Rays infielder posted an excellent line of .297/.405/.543 and played fine defense at a handful of positions. Then again, I’m not sure that Heyman even knows who Ben Zobrist is. That would be the only reasonable argument for him not even giving Zobrist a mention.

Clearly, without going back to the Cy Young debate that ensued this, Heyman shouldn’t throw stones from a glass house. Some of his award selections the past two seasons were an embarrassment, far worse than a voter leaving Carpenter off their Cy Young ballot. Carroll and Law each based their selections on thorough research, taking being a member of the BBWAA seriously. That’s what the fans and players deserve. You can disagree with their outcomes, but they clearly put in time and effort into their decisions, and then offered their reasoning to the public. Heyman and many of his colleagues, on the other hand, only offer one-liners that tell us nothing. Take this sentence, for instance. “feisty, versatile player personifies team.” That was his explanation for his decision to name Kevin Youkilis the third-most valuable player in the league. In regards to the Cy Young, Law, agree with him or not, made it clear why he left Carpenter off, with objective analysis.

Heyman is a skilled reporter with excellent sources, but he falls well short when it comes to evaluating players. Where he gets off calling out someone as intelligent as Law for his picks is beyond me. And, if he actually wants to find a “dumb sportswriter” to tweet about, I suggest that he look in the mirror.

Sosnick Right To Demand Fourth Year In Extension Talks For Josh Johnson

2009-11-21T09:58:00.005-05:00

According to a report by Jerry Crasnick, there is no longer any chance that Josh Johnson will be signed to a long-term contract extension to remain with the Florida Marlins. Matt Sosnick, who represents Johnson and was the agent featured in Crasnick’s excellent License to Deal, was blunt in his assessment why talks broke down.

From the report:

"Based on our conversations, there's no chance of doing a long-term deal with the Marlins," Sosnick said. "We made it clear that it was going to be this year or it wasn't going to happen. It was now or never. And the Marlins agreed."

The Marlins, Sosnick says, did not feel comfortable adding on a fourth year. Thus, it is not surprising that he would reject the offer and now take his client year-to-year until free agency. When I first heard rumblings about a potential team-friendly extension, I felt that it was a great idea for team and player. Johnson is an elite pitcher coming off an excellent campaign in which he posted a 129 ERA+, 3.06 FIP and outstanding rates of 8.22 K/9, 2.50 BB/9, and 0.60 HR/9. According to FanGraphs, his performance was worth an impressive 5.5 Wins Above Replacement ($24.6-M). The 25-year-old right-hander has swing-and-miss stuff, highlighted by a dominant mid-90s fastball and slider; he averaged 95.1 MPH on his fastball in 2009. Each side had incentive to work it out. Florida would gain cost certainty over an ace-caliber starter while Johnson and his family would gain financial security.

I assumed, however, that negotiations would only begin at what Zack Greinke received—four years, $38-M—last offseason and work their way up. Greinke is a superior pitcher, but he came with considerable risk due to his past anxiety disorder and off-field demons that he has hopefully conquered for good. Also, as Jonah Keri points out, he is the type of pitcher who is more comfortable in a lower-profile environment and wanted to remain with the organization that drafted him. For that reason, I expected Johnson, even with his past injury history, to end up exceeding that considerably if an extension were to be reached.

Apparently, though, the Marlins did not even want to go to the fourth year. The organization has a history of avoiding locking up pitchers to long-term extensions, but many expected Johnson to be the one player who they would buck that trend for. Not so fast apparently.

As a result, I completely side with the agent here (something that usually does not happen, given typical irrational agent talk) as Florida would only be buying out one year of free agency. If Johnson stays healthy, he is going to become extremely wealthy in arbitration, anyway, and not having that extra year truly reduces any incentive to remain with the franchise under that circumstance. When he hits free agency, he could end up earning a record-setting contract (Sosnick is already throwing out comparables), so stalling that opportunity would only make sense if he was being paid handsomely and bought out for two years.

I could see how many could argue that Johnson should just take the money now, as he would still be a free agent at 29 years old and due for a huge payday when he hit the market in that scenario. It is difficult for anybody to turn down guaranteed money, of course, and he is only two seasons removed from Tommy John surgery on his elbow. As well, pitchers are always at risk of breaking down, considerably more so than position players. The benefits of simply waiting until 2011 still outweigh that risk as far as Johnson is concerned here, given that he will most likely still receive millions in raises regardless.

A team with limited financial resources like the Marlins cannot afford to get burned by having a large percentage of its payroll tied into a single starting pitcher, so this news is neither indefensible nor surprising. As Peter Gammons writes, the Florida farm system is excellent and its ability to keep churning out young talent enables them to continue competing with a microscopic payroll when they trade away their arbitration-eligible talent. I completely agree with Gammons that the front office has done an excellent job keeping the major league team competitive with so much working against the team in that market. Johnson, to me, was someone who would have been worth taking a gamble on, however. Given the state of market, these “team friendly” types of extensions are no longer as beneficial to the team, but he would still be likely to exceed his salary on a dollars earned/made scale with ease if the extension ended up in the four-year, $40-M range.

The Crasnick report teaches us two things. One, barring a sudden surge in revenue that allows them to take on a higher payroll, the Marlins are never going to lock up a starting pitcher to a long-term extension. If it did not happen with Johnson, it is not going to happen with some other young hurler. Two, Johnson is not going to be a Marlin for too much longer.

Indeed, I would not be surprised to see the Marlins put Johnson, if producing, on the block next July and receive a bounty of prospects in return. He is under control for two more seasons, but similar to all the talk about Roy Halladay this past summer, his value will be at its peak when a contender can go after him for one-and-a-half seasons as opposed to just a three-month rental. If the Marlins are in contention and decide to keep him, he will be linked to trade rumors all next winter.

Either way, Johnson is a goner. And Marlins fans should not blame Johnson or Sosnick for that fact one bit.

Thoughts On The Red Sox's Offseason, Part Three

2009-11-20T22:39:00.002-05:00

Last night, I offered some thoughts on what the Boston Red Sox should do to improve this offseason. I mainly focused on what the Red Sox should do in left field if they don’t re-sign free agent Jason Bay. The club has a few other areas that need to be addressed, however.

Lineup:

As it has been well documented, shortstop has been a revolving door in Boston ever since Nomar Garciaparra was traded to the Chicago Cubs back in 2003. Every spring there is a new player manning the position for the Old Town team come Opening Day, it seems, and it continued to be a weakness for the club in 2009.

Six Red Sox players combined to post a putrid line of .235/.297/.358 and .656 OPS while manning shortstop throughout the year. Free agent Nick Green got off to a nice start early in the summer but, as many predicted, faded relatively quickly. After the Julio Lugo era came to an end and with Jed Lowrie on the disabled list, Green saw more time at the position than any player on the roster while posting a line of .227/.296/.360 in 81 games there; overall, he managed just a 71 OPS+ in 309 plate appearances. According to FanGraphs, the career journeyman was worth -11.0 runs below average. Green, to his credit, graded out above average on defense, producing a 3.9 UZR and 8.3 UZR/150 in 644.1 innings, though the sample size is too small to draw too many conclusions. Overall, when factoring in his production at multiple positions, he still produced just 0.4 WAR.

With Green scuffling, the Red Sox attempted to upgrade at shortstop by bringing Alex Gonzalez back to New England in a July trade with the Cincinnati Reds. Gonzalez, who started for the Red Sox back in 2006, had been struggling through a terrible campaign with the Reds before the trade. Despite playing in a hitter’s paradise at Great American Ballpark, he batted just .210/.258/.296 with a 46 OPS+ in 270 plate appearances. Boston ranked 29th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency—the rate at which balls hit into play are converted into outs—at the time that Theo Epstein pulled the trigger, though, so it was obvious that the move was made to shore up the team defense up the middle. Interestingly, Green actually had a greater UZR and UZR/150 total, but Epstein and his staff felt that the sample of data was too insignificant and relied on their scouts that Gonzalez would be an upgrade. Upon his return, the veteran infielder didn’t disappoint. He continued to impress with his sure-handed defense, grading out 4.3 runs above average with his glove during his time in Boston. To the delight of Red Sox nation, he also chipped in with his bat by slashing .284/.316/.453 with a respectable 95 OPS+. FanGraphs pegged his production at 0.5 batting runs, and when combined with his solid glove work, he produced 1.2 WAR in just 44 games.

Still, as great of a team as Boston was in ’09, the most glaring weakness on both sides of the ball was shortstop. Lugo continued to be a disappointment before Epstein recognized his contract as a sunk cost and sent him packing to the St. Louis Cardinals. Making matters worse, it was pretty much a lost season for Lowrie, who underwent wrist surgery in April and hit .147/.211/.265 in only 76 major league plate appearances. As a result, the team should look to improve at shortstop this offseason.

Boston wisely declined the option on Gonzalez’s $6.0-M contract for 2010. While he was worth $5.5-M during his time with the team according to FanGraphs, there is no way he’s going to get that much on the free agent market this winter. Thus, similar to what the Philadelphia Phillies did with third baseman Pedro Feliz, they afforded themselves the potential opportunity of saving a few million dollars if they choose to bring back Gonzalez at a reduced rate. Many expect Epstein to do exactly that, re-signing Gonzalez to a one-year deal as an insurance policy for Lowrie, who is expected to begin the spring at Triple-A Pawtucket as he gets himself acclimated to playing everyday.

While that isn’t a terrible strategy, there are some concerns with Gonzalez. First, his offensive line with Boston, nothing special to begin with, isn’t sustainable. His .284 batting average was enhanced by a .325 batting average on balls in play that will surely drop; his career BABIP is .286. Most concerning, he has clear-cut deficiencies as a hitter, offering little in power (.148 career IsoP) or walks (5.1 career BB %). All of his offensive value comes from his ability to hit for a hollow batting average in the .280 range, which isn’t a sure bet as he ages. Bill James projects him to bat .247/.305/.387 in ’10, which is hardly on the pessimistic side. Also, he’s still prone to injury—he missed all of 2007—and shortstops close to entering their mid-30s generally don’t age well.

Of course, most of the value that Gonzalez offers comes on defense. Boston produced -16.3 runs below average as a team according to UZR and ranked 28th in the majors with a .679 defensive efficiency rating, so having an average to plus defender at such a premium position on the diamond is paramount. For that reason, the Gonzalez-Lowrie contingency plan makes sense assuming that they can bring him back at a reasonable price. He projects to be around a 1.0-win player, making anything more than a few million too much.

Lowrie is no sure thing, either. He impressed during his stint with the Red Sox in 2008, playing steady defense while posting a line of .258/.339/.400. Citing his UZR data would be foolish given the limited sample, but the stats had him as well above average. Scouts are mixed about his viability as a shortstop defensively, though, and his bat will never play well enough on a corner. While many are hoping that he can make a full recovery and put the wrist injury behind him for good, there are red flags with him as well and ’10 could be a turning point in his career. A team could do a whole lot worse than a cost-efficient Gonzalez/Lowrie combination until the organization finds a more permanent solution*

Many scouts believe that 19-year-old defensive whiz Jose Iglesias is the man for the job, but it is still way too early to tell at this stage given how raw he is.

Given how weak the free agent shortstop class is, re-upping Gonzalez or another low-cost, solid defender is a safe play. One other option that the Red Sox may consider, however, is making a push for Marco Scutaro, who is by far the best free agent shortstop available. Scutaro didn’t receive regular playing time at the highest level until he turned 28 but has turned in a nice career so far. The soon-to-be 34-year-old picked the right time to become a free agent. He is coming off a breakout performance in which he posted a career high in all slash stats categories, hitting .282/.379/.409 with 12 homers and a 111 OPS+ for the Toronto Blue Jays. As a result, he could generate quite a demand this winter given how terrible the rest of the class is at the position.

Obviously, there’s no way that Scutaro will sustain that kind of output as he gets older. Several scouts feel that his sudden power surge was a mirage and that he won’t approach double digits in homers again. The biggest improvement that he made as a hitter, though, came in his newfound selectivity. He posted the best walk rate, 13.6 %, of his career, up from his lifetime average of 9.8 %. But, both his average, aided by a .308 BABIP, and walk rate should regress back closer to his career norms, when his bat has been playable at the position but nothing special overall. He had never posted an OPS+ total above the league-average barometer of 100, in fact, before doing so in ’09 and has been worth -19.2 runs below average in the majors. Counting on him to repeat a 111 OPS+ performance, then, seems like a trap; James’ projections have him hitting .264/.347/.381.

With that said, Scutaro is viewed as a plus defender who can play multiple infield positions. He posted a 7.6 UZR and 20.3 UZR/150 in an admittedly small sample size of 472.1 innings at shortstop in ’08, with the number falling to 0.9 and 1.0 this season. Given how much the stat can fluctuate, simply basing an assessment of his defense without reading the scouting reports would be misguided. He has a reputation for being a solid defender, though, and is at the least average there, which has tremendous value.

Over two seasons in Toronto, Scutaro produced 7.2 WAR (valued at around $32.0-M), thanks to his defense and the offensive surge. He managed 4.5 WAR in ’09, trailing only Jason Bartlett and Derek Jeter among American Leauge shortstops. Going forward, he’s unlikely to ever approach that mark again but a pessimistic estimate projects him to average 1.5 WAR over the next two seasons, with the potential for a bit more.

If the price tag is too high, Boston should steer away but Scutaro is a quality player who would be an upgrade in the short term. Epstein may avoid him to simply avoid having another Lugo-type disaster, but, given how much the team has lacked stability, it’s a scenario worth considering.

Depending on what happens with left field, Boston could also look to add another middle-of-the-order bat to its lineup. The Red Sox will be relying on Mike Lowell and David Ortiz, who are each likely entering their final year with the franchise. Lowell’s contract will make him difficult to move, but it would not be surprised to see his name surface in trade rumors this winter. His defense has really declined—both to the eyes and what the data says, with his UZR of -14.4 leaving a lot to be desired. Indeed, he was a major culprit in the Red Sox’s ineptitude when it came to defensive efficiency. Plus, he was only worth 5.3 runs above average with his bat, producing a 106 OPS+ in 484 plate appearances. For a defensively challenged corner infielder, that production leaves a lot to be desired. Ortiz is also on the decline. He rebounded a bit from a miserable start but ended up with a .340 wOBA, .48 points below his career average, and .794 OPS. At 0.7 WAR, he was worth nowhere near what he was paid, but at least his contract is coming off the books soon enough. The Red Sox will live with that until that day comes, though, because it’s unlikely that they will simply wash their hands and release the beloved fan favorite regardless of performance.

The free agent third base market has some intriguing options, with Adrian Beltre a name who is on Boston’s radar. Beltre has his flaws as a hitter, swinging at bad pitches and offering little in walks. But he’s an exceptional defender at third base, has power and would greatly benefit from moving away from Safeco Field (death for right-handed hitters). Overall, he would be a major upgrade over Lowell. The market towards Beltre could be cold, given the perception that he was a bust and that he is coming off an injury-riddled campaign, so perhaps he could be had in a two-year deal. That isn’t a realistic possibility unless Lowell gets dealt, though, which will only happen if Boston agrees to take on a huge chunk of his salary. Epstein will surely do his due diligence there, but odds are Lowell will be the opening day starter at third base with Ortiz at DH.

Thinking about it on paper, here are some potential lineups, with the player most likely to man the position penciled in first.

1B: Kevin Youkilis
2B: Dustin Pedroia
SS: Alex Gonzalez/Lowrie/Scutaro
3B: Lowell/Beltre
LF: Jason Bay/Matt Holliday/Jeremy Hermida/Mike Cameron
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
RF: J.D. Drew
C Victor Martinez/Jason Varitek

Pitching:

Boston has a pretty deep starting rotation, especially if Daisuke Matsuzaka can come back to provide value, but I would look to add another veteran starter. Similar to the mid-risk, high-reward moves with Brad Penny and John Smoltz last offseason, I would also explore a deal for Rich Harden or the extremely talented (when healthy) Ben Sheets.

Potential staff

1. Josh Beckett
2. Jon Lester
3. Clay Buccholz
4. Matsuzaka
5. Tim Wakefield/Harden/Sheets

Plus, Michael Bowden, despite his disappointing campaign (all his peripherals worsened considerably), and Junichi Tazawa provide depth in the starting rotation.

I didn’t get to the bullpen yet, but that group should be a strength for the Red Sox in ’10. Billy Wagner was lights out in his limited time with the club down the stretch, and he should be back. Wagner, a Type A free agent, kind of screwed himself over and is unlikely to generate much of a demand because 39-year-old relievers with injury issues aren’t worth early compensation picks. Thus, his options are limited and he should come back to the Red Sox.

Now that emotion has subsided, the calls for dealing Jonathan Papelbon have died down a bit, but seeing as how he’s about to get really expensive, Epstein should definitely listen in on offers. If value is there, saying goodbye is worth considering despite the fact that, based on WAR, Papelbon has indeed been an elite relief ace. If Wagner indeed returns, this could make a trade more realistic, as the veteran lefty could man most high-leverage situations while the flamethrowing Daniel Bard gets another year to harness him control under his belt. Bard would then be the successor, perhaps as early as ’11. I, for one, feel that the closer position is overrated, and saves are clearly the function of opportunity. Having a talented relief ace who can get hitters out in key spots in the late innings is not overrated, though, and Bard should be at point where he can be counted on in those situations in the near future.

Thoughts on The Boston Red Sox's Offseason, Part One

2009-11-19T21:23:00.003-05:00

Earlier this week, I provided some thoughts on what the New York Yankees should look to do in order to improve this offseason. Next up is the Yankees’ bitter American League East rival, the Boston Red Sox.

The Red Sox were the favorites to land slugging first baseman Mark Teixeira for much of last winter. The Yankees came in to win the Teixeira sweepstakes at the last minute, though, and general manager Theo Epstein instead chose to go the low-risk, medium-reward route with a number of free agent signings. Epstein went dumpster diving with bargain pickups such as Brad Penny, Takashi Saito and John Smoltz, in addition to trading Coco Crisp for reliever Ramon Ramirez.

While Penny and Smoltz ended up with different organizations at the end of the season, Boston yet again turned in an impressive campaign. The club won 95 games in the majors’ premier division, easily winning the American League Wild Card. Being swept by the Los Angeles Angels in the Division Series wasn’t what Red Sox nation had in mind at the finish, but Epstein built a solid roster that put his team in a chance to contend in a ridiculously competitive division. Boston simply lost to an inferior team in a small sample size, again showing how much random variance can play in a short series.

Similar to the Yankees, the Red Sox don’t have many major holes to fill on the open market or through trades. The most pertinent issue that Epstein must address, of course, is determining who will play left field for the Boston in 2010. According to Jon Heyman, the incumbent Jason Bay rejected the team’s initial four-year, $60-M offer today. The news was hardly surprising. Bay has waited a long time to become a free agent and he would be crazy not to see what the market will be like for his services. Clearly, that doesn’t mean that a return to New England is out of the question, as both the player and team seem to share a mutual interest.

However, Matt Holliday is the best overall left fielder available in free agency and would be a better fit for what the Red Sox need. Many in the statistical community were surprised to learn that Epstein, given his reputation as being a statistical savvy GM, would offer so much money to Bay, who has graded out statistically as one of the worst defensive outfielders in the majors since 2007. As I wrote about last week, perhaps Epstein is feigning his interest in Bay, and, knowing that the outfielder would reject the initial offer, simply attempting to gain leverage in the negotiations for Holliday by putting his eggs in more than one basket. There’s no way in knowing that for sure, of course, but it would surprise me to see Boston invest that much more money into Bay than what they initially offered.

When it comes to pure offense, Bay is the better hitter. The 30-year-old slugger has posted a career line of .280/.376/.519 with a 131 OPS+ while averaging 33 home runs and 107 RBIs over 162 games in seven major league seasons. I wrote about how consistent of an offensive performer he has been over the weekend:

According to his FanGraphs page, Bay has graded out 182.1 runs above average during his career. His ’07 campaign was the only year in which he did not produce at least 32.0 runs above average, and that was clearly an aberration.

Hitting is only one part of baseball, though, and Bay has other deficiencies. Most notably, he has graded out well below-average statistically in left field. As Keith Law notes, many feel that the Green Monster can wreak havoc on defensive data, but it is hard to overlook that he has graded out at least -11.5 runs below average every season since ’07 and has only produced a UZR total in the black on one occasion since 2004. During that time span overall, he has been worth -51.2 runs with his glove. While there are still issues with UZR, he’s a slightly below average defender at best and is unlikely to improve as he ages. As a result, odds are he will end up as a designated hitter before the end of his next contract.

Given the level of consistent offensive production that Bay provides, I wouldn’t be that opposed to the Red Sox, or any A.L. franchise, making a large investment in the All-Star outfielder. If he continues to produce so many runs with his bat, he will be a valuable, three-win-level player and a potent bat in the middle of the Red Sox’s lineup. Given the lack of defensive value, though, there’s more downside risk with Bay should he fall off the map offensively. Epstein could definitely do a whole lot worse than bringing him back—and the signing would be met with a warm reception by the local media and casual Red Sox fans who appreciate his ability to drive in runs—but, if they do splurge to fill this position, Holliday, even if a bit more expensive, would be the wiser investment.

It was a tale of two seasons for Holliday, who was traded from the Colorado Rockies to the Oakland Athletics last December. He got off to a miserable start in Oakland, going homerless for much of April as numerous stories were written about how he was previously a product of Coors Field. He rebounded a bit and ended up posting a solid line of .286/.378/.454 with 11 homers and a 120 OPS+ with the A’s while playing in a home hitting environment that suppressed output for right-handed hitters. Billy Beane then dealt him to the St. Louis Cardinals for a package led by third base prospect Brett Wallace in July. He enjoyed a renaissance in his return to the National League, slashing .353/.419/.604 with 13 home runs, 55 RBIs and a 168 OPS+ with the Cardinals.

Many still express concerns that Holliday won’t be the same player in the American League, pointing to the struggles in Oakland. While accounting for a drop off due to signing with a team in the superior A.L. is necessary (especially if he ends up in the East), the 93-game sample in a pitcher’s park in Oakland is too small to read too much into it. Of course, he’s not the same hitter going forward that he was in St. Louis, or Colorado, but it would be foolish to simply discount his stellar offensive performances completely. During his career, he has produced an incredible 180.3 runs above average and a .400 wOBA. He has country strong power (.227 career Isolated Power) and solid on-base skills (9.1 career BB%). He’s a fine base runner, too, and would be a nice fit hitting at Fenway Park.

Plus, according to the statistics, Holliday is the better defensive left fielder. Sure, he made a monumental error in the Division Series, losing a ball in the sun and having it hit off his, well, cup. Many scouts also cringe when watching him play left field, claiming that he takes awkward routes to balls and that his defense isn’t pleasing on the eyes. According to UZR, however, he has been one of the most productive defenders at the position since 2007, grading out 29.0 runs above average. As an assistant GM points out in this Jerry Crasnick piece, generally the truth lies somewhere in the middle if scouts strongly agree with defensive data. Thus, he’s probably not as talented in the field as the numbers suggest but still considerably better than Bay.

Here are the two players’ UZR totals from ’07 through ’09, respectively:

Bay: -11.5, -18.4, -13.0 Holliday, 14.2, 9.1, 5.7

Due to the defensive disparity, Holliday has a considerable lead in three-year Wins Above Replacement as well:

Bay: 0.1, 2.9, 3.5 Holliday, 7.9, 6.2, 5.7

Assuming that Bay is a little bit better in the field than UZR gives him credit for and that Holliday gets too much of a boost, the gap is still too large to change the outcome. Scott Boras is going to get a huge contract for his prized client, Holliday, so the savings might make Bay the better option. If it were up to me, though, Holliday would be the free agent I would make a hard push for.

Epstein acquired Jeremy Hermida from the Florida Marlins on November 5 in another buy-low move. Hermida, the former top prospect, provides depth at the position should the team fail to sign either Bay or Holliday for some reason. Given his poor defense and declining offensive numbers, though, he really isn’t someone the Red Sox should be comfortable with giving an everyday job, even as a platoon player against right-handed pitching, to considering their playoff aspirations next season. Also, he could always be flipped this winter to address another need, since he’s a defensive liability and not an ideal fourth outfielder. Internal options such as Ryan Kalish and Josh Reddick are still a year away from really making a contribution and would be exposed as rookies if given extended playing time. Thus, getting one of the two free agents inked is a priority, as there’s a considerable drop off in the talent level of free agent outfielders outside of Bay, Holliday and Mike Cameron, who I wrote would be a good match with the Yankees.

Cameron could really work as a capable option for the Red Sox on a one-year deal as well, providing outstanding defense in left field and decent offensive production. Plus, signing him would be relatively low risk, as the team wouldn’t be tied up with a major financial commitment at the position well into the next decade. As I wrote in the Yankees piece, the free agent class of 2011 is going to be much stronger, so perhaps waiting that extra year, giving their prospects another year of development time, and then seeing what the market is like next winter would be a sound strategy.

After all, the Tampa Bay Rays Carl Crawford, among other stars, becomes a free agent; plus, while trading to a division rival could prevent this from happening, he will likely be shopped by Tampa Bay before the trade deadline should the team fall out of contention. Getting a player like Cameron would allow them to see how the market shakes out when the supply of premium talent on the open market is greater. According to UZR, Cameron is a much better defensive player than the club’s current center fielder, Jacoby Ellsbury. However, it would be unlikely that the Red Sox would move Ellsbury off the position. For one, the front office believes that he’s much better than the numbers suggest; the team’s internal metrics and scouts all have Ellsbury as above average. More importantly, his bat doesn’t play nearly as well on a corner. In signing Cameron to play left field, the team would essentially be adopting a three center field model; J.D. Drew offers plus defense on the other corner. Converting balls hit into play into outs was a major issue for Boston in ’09, so keeping defense in mind in addressing the opening in left field is important, and that model could work.*

If the team does sign Cameron or Holliday, it will be interesting to see how UZR treats them. The only two fielders to get significant time dealing with the Monster since advanced defensive data became available back in 2002 are Bay and Manny Ramirez, two below-average defenders who would likely be in the red in any park.

Signing Holliday is the best bet, but missing out on him if Boras’ asking price is too high will not be the end of the world. Dave Cameron recently argued that Cameron is better than Bay, straight up, so getting him in a one-year situation could prove to be a shrewd move. Addressing left field is the main priority facing Epstein, but there are several other areas where the team could improve. Check back for part two, where I discuss these areas the Red Sox should focus on this winter, including shortstop.

Will It Be A Quiet Winter For The Yankees?

2009-11-15T20:02:00.012-05:00

Last offseason, the New York Yankees went into the offseason with several question marks and positions that needed to be addressed. The Yankees, who failed to make the postseason and finished in third place in the American League East in 2008, had holes in their starting rotation and an opening at first base; it was clear that the front office had no intention of bringing back Jason Giambi. Luckily, the crop of free agents available set up perfectly to their needs.

New York took advantage of its tremendous financial resources and the favorable free agent market, signing the best two starting pitchers (A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia) and premier bat (Mark Teixeira) on the open market. Since there was so much money coming off the books, the Yankees were able to do so and actually reduce payroll. While there is still a lot of downside risk with each contract, New York was commended for bucking its recent trend of going after quantity and instead landing three of the top free agents. In year one at least, the investments paid off. The Yankees won 103 games during the regular season and ended up taking home their record 27th World Series title.

Coming off a championship and given the state of the relatively weak free agent class of 2010, it is unlikely that the New York front office will spend nearly as much this winter. The Steinbrenner brothers will likely want to reduce payroll yet again—for fiscal reasons as well to avoid any more backlash for scooping up all of the top free agents.

Plus, there are only two free agent players—Matt Holliday and John Lackey—worth long-term investment in the salary range of even Burnett (five years, $82.5-M). Holliday, when factoring in his age, baserunning, defensive value and offensive output, is by far the top position player and the player with the least amount of downside risk. As a Scott Boras client, though, he is not going to come cheap and would likely see a performance drop off moving into the premier division in baseball, the A.L. East. He would certainly be an upgrade on both sides of the ball over incumbent left fielder Johnny Damon, also a Boras client, but it is unlikely that the Yankees will make a serious run at him.

With Lackey, on the other hand, there are injury question marks and it is doubtful that New York would take another long-term gamble with a pitcher, given how much money will be tied into Burnett and Sabathia over the better part of the next decade. In addition, the 2011 free agent class is expected to be much stronger, with the supply likely to make prices more reasonable. So, the franchise could choose to do what it did in the Johan Santana sweepstakes and simply wait a year to make another huge splash in free agency.

Perhaps most notably, though, the Yankees do not have as many pressing needs. The club could certainly improve the backend of its starting rotation, seeing as how they got by on a three-man staff during the postseason. Youngster Phil Hughes, who excelled as a setup man to Mariano Rivera, could always slide back into a starting role, as could Joba Chamberlain. Plus, the seemingly forgotten Ian Kennedy and a few other internal options provide depth. Still, the team will probably go after a lower-risk, middle-tier pitch or potentially look to the trade market to add another starter. Clearly, how aggressive the Yankees are in that regard will depend on whether or not they can bring back Andy Pettitte, who would be unlikely to sign with another organization if he chooses to keep pitching. Assuming that Pettitte comes back, New York boasts a much more complete pitching staff than it did this time last November before the free agency period began.

The other two pressing questions facing the Yankees are the statuses of Damon and free agent designated hitter Hideki Matsui. Initial reports suggested that the front office plans to resign only one player out of that duo, with Damon, given his ability to play defense, the more logical option.

Matsui, 35, had a fine campaign, batting .274/.367/.509 with 28 home runs, 90 RBIs and a 131 OPS+. The left-handed-hitting veteran then had an outstanding performance in the playoffs, but Brian Cashman is on record as saying that he will only base decisions on how each pending free agent performed before October. Given the sample size issue, that is the right strategy, as evaluating a player on a few weeks of at-bats, regardless of how he performed, would be myopic. Thus, as difficult as it may be for sentimental Yankees fans to say goodbye, doing so (assuming that Matsui generates enough demand to merit a three-year contract) will be the right business decision. He offers no flexibility on defense and New York will eventually need that DH spot as an option for its star core as players such as Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez and Teixeira age and decline on defense. Plus, the free agent market—especially with many non-tendered candidates expected to join the ranks—is going to be filled with productive hitters who offer little value on defense, with the supply of solid all-hit, no-field players expected to exceed the demand of American League teams that have a hole at DH. Granted, that could bring the asking price down for Matsui, but given his postseason exploits, he should generate a few lucrative offers.

Boras is floating around some crazy numbers for Damon, who is now on the wrong side of 35 as well. The veteran outfielder, though, is also coming off a productive season offensively. He hit .282/.365/.489 with a 126 OPS+ and .376 wOBA; according to FanGraphs, he graded out 25.3 runs above average with his bat. Although he produced a -9.2 UZR defensively, he can still at least fake left field a lot better than Matsui can. So, if he can be had for a somewhat reasonable amount, he will be worth bringing back. Indeed, although he is likely to regress on offense (Bill James projects his wOBA to fall to .348), he still projects as a 2.0-win player going forward. It will be interesting to see what happens with Damon and Matsui, but odds are Damon will be the one to return to the Bronx. If Matsui indeed leaves, the team will have an opening at DH, which should not be too difficult to fill.

The Yankees truly had an incredible lineup in ’09, with every regular producing at least 2.0 WAR. The most obvious lacking position that Cashman could attempt to address, however, is center field. Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner formed a decent enough platoon at the position, combining to post 3.7 WAR.

While Cabrera had his moments, though, he is really not good enough to play everyday on a championship-caliber club like he was forced to do this year. His line of .274/.336/.416 certainly did not do a whole lot of damage to the Yankees’ explosive offense from the nine spot in the lineup. Indeed, there are several teams that would welcome that kind of production from its number nine hitter. However, he still produced a below-league average OPS+, 99, for the third straight season and his .331 wOBA was good for just 1.6 runs above average. That kind of offense is fine for the position, of course, but he is not exactly a premier defender, either. In fact, he graded out a tick below average (-1.6 UZR, -2.0 UZR/150) and is in the red in UZR for his major league career. Overall, the homegrown product still managed 1.6 WAR, but a team like the Yankees can do better considering that his upside is that of a 2.0-win player.

Gardner, who is actually a year older than Cabrera, was a valuable asset for the Yankees in his first full crack at the highest level in his own right. He hit .270/.345/.379 in 284 plate appearances with 26 stole bases in 31 chances, scoring 48 runs in 108 games. Most of his value comes from his plus defense, however, as he produced a stellar 7.2 UZR and 15.4 UZR/150 in 628.1 innings in the field. Plus, he was a great baserunning option off the bench in the late innings.

Thus, the Yankees could go into spring training with the same duo in center field and be fine. However, Cabrera is not an everyday player and Gardner, thanks to his defense, is better suited as an outstanding fourth outfielder.

New York had one other hole in its lineup, backup catcher Jose Molina, who is also a free agent. Molina, Burnett’s favorite catching target, offered nothing on offense and is practically a guaranteed out. Internal reinforcements for that position are on the way—Jesus Montero, despite concerns about his defense, is one of the best-hitting prospects in the minors, and then there is Austin Romine—but the team could try and upgrade with a stopgap until they are definitely ready as a backup to Posada, who should see more time at DH next season.

Clearly, the Yankees do not have many weaknesses. Unlike previous seasons, the most complete and premier team survived the crapshoot nature of the eight-team postseason tournament and won the World Series. Thus, there are not as many pertinent issues facing Cashman as there have been in recent past. While there is no stopping the team from simply going all out again and getting Holliday to replace Damon in left field, it would be somewhat shocking to see the Steinbrenners spend nearly as much as they did last offseason for the aforementioned reasons.

That said, Cashman is not going to rest on his laurels and there are some lesser-tier free agents worth pursuing for what the Yankees need. Two names that come to mind are Mike Cameron and Nick Johnson.

New York nearly acquired Cameron from the Milwaukee Brewers last winter. According to reports, Milwaukee would have received Cabrera and potentially Kei Igawa in exchange for the veteran center fielder. Doug Melvin would not agree to send money along in the deal—after seeing the Yankees dwarf the Brewers’ offer for Sabathia, the nerve of Cashman to expect money to be included reportedly set him off the edge—and the talks broke down. New York reopened talks with Milwaukee before in August, but again the two sides failed to work something out.*

*It is hard to be critical of the Yankees, seeing as how they won the World Series. However, the team would have been even better had they had Cameron roaming center field. Since money is not believed to be an issue, it was surprising that the team did not pull the trigger.

In other words, the Yankees have had their eyes on Cameron for a while and obviously think highly of his defense and power combination—rightfully so. Cameron is a notoriously underrated player because of his .250 career batting average and high strikeout totals; he has struck out in 27.9 percent of his career plate appearances. However, he makes up for those deficiencies with his on-base skills (11.4 career BB%) and power (.198 career Isolated Power). His output has also been suppressed by unfavorable home hitting environments, but he has produced strong park-adjusted OPS+ totals over the past several seasons.

Here are his OPS+ numbers since 2005:

2005: 114
2006: 121
2007: 104
2008: 111
2009: 111

During that time span, Cameron has graded out 51.8 runs above average. Although he would regress moving over to the superior American League and with another year, hitting in Yankee Stadium would help.

Not only that, most of Cameron’s value comes from his outstanding outfield defense. He has been one of the top defensive center fielders in the majors the past two years, producing UZR/150 totals of 15.6 and 10.3 in 2008 and ’09, respectively. In large part due to the defense, he has produced 8.3 WAR (valued at just under $40-M) during that two-year span.

The Yankees have Austin Jackson coming up in the wings, but the team would be wise to offer Cameron a high annual salary and try to bring him in a one-year deal. Given his age and the perception that he is only a complementary piece, doing so should be plausible.

Jackson will be the Yankees’ long-term answer, but he still has a lot of work to do refining his skills as a hitter. According to Yankees’ prospect expert Mike Axisa of the popular Yankees blog River Avenue Blues, he will probably not be ready for a full-time role until ’11. “Jackson still needs more time in Triple-A just for the reps,” Axisa says. “He needs to keep working on his swing and pitch recognition, and he probably won’t be the regular center fielder for the Yankees until 2011.”

In the meantime, Cameron could serve as an excellent stop gap. He is going to be 37 next season, so his age is a legitimate concern. The Yankees really should try to get younger this winter any place they can, and this move is inconsistent with that mindset. His defense will make him a worthwhile investment even if falls off the table offensively, though, so he could be a logical match in Pinstripes and he would only be a short-term addition. Also worth mentioning, he is a Type B free agent, so he will not cost the team that signs him any draft pick compensation.

If the Yankees do end up signing Cameron, that will not be enough. He could simply move over to left field, keeping the Cabrera/Gardner (who is equally as talented defensively) in tact. He would be a better fit to take over in center, though, with Gardner spelling him on occasions and against right-handed pitching. That leaves Cabrera, whose bat does not play nearly well enough on a corner, as the odd man out and an opening in left field assuming the team does not re-sign Damon, which would become more of a priority. “Yeah, signing Cameron would not be enough on its own to replace Damon,” Axisa says.

Staying on the field has been an issue for Johnson, but a return to New York makes sense for him as well. His patient approach (career .402 on-base percentage) would fit in perfectly with the Yankees’ offensive approach, and, despite being only 30 years old, his injury history will scare teams from giving him a long-term contract offer. In a short-term situation, the Yankees could outbid any team, and, for one year at least, he could be a great DH fit for them since he can still play first base if needed and open up the position for one of the Yankees’ other sluggers. The difference between him and Matsui offensively is not that great, and he is likely to come cheaper.

The free agent class of ’10 is not too deep, and the Yankees are pretty set with their roster outside of a few exceptions. It is unlikely, therefore, that Cashman will really go out and spend so much on free agents again, but there are a few avenues for the team to get even better if he so chooses.

Blogger Nine Innings

2009-11-15T17:22:00.000-05:00

I recently answered nine questions for the New York Daily News' Jesse Spector in the latest edition of Blogger Nine Innings. Click here to read my take on nine baseball questions, ranging from what I would use as my closer music to my opinions on the most under and overrated players in the majors.

Jason Bay's Defense An Inconvenient Truth For Agent Joe Urbon

2009-11-15T15:25:00.007-05:00

WEEI baseball writer Alex Speier spoke with Joe Urbon, who is representing free agent outfielder Jason Bay, last week. Urbon essentially made his case in the article for why he feels that Bay is the best outfielder available on the market this offseason. According to Speier, it was the pitch that he has been making to teams around the league.

The report is worth reading in full, but Urbon points out how consistent and productive Bay has been offensively during his professional career. In that regard, he is absolutely correct. His client has been an incredible offensive force, averaging a line of .280/.376/.519 with a 131 OPS+ over seven major league seasons. Outside of an injury-riddled campaign in 2007 with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Bay has posted an OPS+ above 130 in each of his full seasons. He has indeed been a model of consistency at the plate.

Here are Bay’s OPS+ totals since 2004:

2004: 132
2005: 150
2006: 138
2007: 94
2008: 134
2009: 134

One of the strongest points that Urbon brings up is that Bay has been able to perform in the American League East as well. After coming over from the Pirates at the trade deadline in 2008, he posted a line of .293/.370/.527 with nine home runs and 37 RBIs in 211 plate appearance to serve as a fine replacement for the departed Manny Ramirez. He then followed up that with a streaky, but productive performance in his first full season in Boston in 2009; following a hot start, he batted .267/.384/.537 with 36 homers and 119 RBIs. He was aided by hitting in a favorable park to right-handed hitters, but there is no denying that he is a special hitter and proven run producer. He has legit power (.236 career Isolated Power) and excellent on-base skills (12.9 career BB%).

According to his FanGraphs page, Bay has graded out 182.1 runs above average during his career. His ’07 campaign was the only year in which he did not produce at least 32.0 runs above average, and that was clearly an aberration. Thus, when it comes to Bay being a premier hitter and consistent performer, it is hard to take issue with Urbon.

Unfortunately for Urbon, there is more to baseball than pure offense and the one facet of baseball that was conspicuously absent in the pitch was defense. In fact, there was no mention of how he views Bay defensively until the final paragraph.

“Interest has been very well distributed between the two leagues,” said Urbon. “Not one club mentioned anything about [defense]. I think it becomes a talking point, because it’s worth talking about and dissecting and evaluating, but at the end of the day, his ability to play a consistent left field, clubs are well aware of it.”

This is the major crutch in Urbon’s argument. Of course, an agent will never bash a client or point out his deficiencies. Doing so would, well, make him a pretty terrible agent. Agents have a fiduciary responsibility to do what is in their client’s best interests, and pointing out flaws in a player would not be the best way to carry out that promise. Thus, it is hardly surprising that Urbon would choose to ignore the defensive issue as much as possible and provide a quote like he did to end the piece.

I have no responsibility to Bay, however, so I am going to have to strongly disagree with Urbon on his final point. Actually, he is kind of right. Bay has shown a consistent ability to play left field. Only, he has shown the “ability” to play a consistently awful left field.

Here are Bay’s UZR total since ’04:

2004: -6.4
2005: -6.0
2006: 3.1
2007: -11.5
2008: -18.4
2009: -13.0

In total, Bay has graded out -51.2 runs below average during his career. UZR is not perfect, of course, and generally it takes around three times as large of sample size to receive the same accuracy as offensive statistics. Given how harshly the numbers have consistently been on him, though, it is difficult to assume that there is that much noise in the data. Bay is just not a good defender, with the most generous assessment of his defense pegging him slightly below average. Many like to point to the Green Monster as a reason for the bad UZR totals in Boston, arguing that Bay cannot be as bad as the numbers show given the limited area he has had to work with at Fenway Park. That is nonsense, though, as his numbers were terrible in Pittsburgh as well.

Many front offices around the league have embraced the importance of defense when assessing player dollar values, so the poor defense will definitely hurt him. The runs that he has given back on the other side of the ball have really negated his overall value.

Here are his Wins Above Replacement (WAR) totals since ’04:

2004: 2.2
2005: 6.4
2006: 5.5
2007: 0.1
2008: 2.9
2009: 3.5

As the WAR totals show, Bay has still been a valuable player because of his tremendous bat, but the defense really hurts him. And, he is on the wrong side of 30 and unlikely to get better out in the outfield anytime soon. Plus, as he gets older, it is doubtful that he will maintain his current level of offensive output over the length of any long-term contract for more than four years. Teams are paying for future performance, not past results, so that is also a concern.

There is no question that Bay will receive one of the more lucrative contracts this offseason. And he will deserve that. He can really mash and has shown that he can handle a market like Boston and perform with his bat. However, his defense is horrendous and he will likely need to be a DH in the near future. Thus, a National League team would be foolish to offer him big dollars—seriously, N.L. general managers, do not ignore the defense. It only takes one foolish G.M. to make a a mistake, of course, but Bay needs to stay in the A.L., where he can just slide into a DH role eventually.

Going back to the pitch, Urbon would obviously never* mention UZR or Bay’s shortcomings as a player. But it is easy to call out nonsense on the defense angle.

*The WEEI article made me wonder about the consistency with which agents use advanced metrics in negotiations on behalf of their clients. It would be easy for an agent to dismiss UZR, or a team’s internal defensive metrics, if the data was critical of one client when discussing the player with a savvy front office. But would he then talk up UZR if it helped another? I can just see Scott Boras using UZR to talk up Matt Holliday this offseason, and then turn around and argue that the UZR totals for Johnny Damon are bogus given his genetics.

The team that signs Jason Bay will be getting a really talented player—just probably not as good as perception leads many to believe. Or one as good as this guy.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs

With Reds' Financial Troubles, Rolen Deal Becomes Even More Puzzling

2009-11-11T20:53:00.005-05:00

According to Ed Price of AOL FanHouse, the Cincinnati Reds will need to slash payroll this offseason. Price reports that the Reds’ financial situation could force them to move several high-priced players, such as second baseman Brandon Phillips and starters Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang.

Given where the Reds fell on the success cycle last July, I proposed that they sell off any assets they could before the trade deadline when previewing some of their candidates to be moved. Rather than unload dead weight and move a few over-bloated contracts, the front office instead chose to take on salary by trading for third baseman Scott Rolen.

In Rolen, the Reds were acquiring an injury-prone player in his mid-30s who is due to make an $11-M salary with a $4-M bonus in 2010. It was not just the money that made that move so puzzling, though, as Cincinnati sent a nice package to the Toronto Blue Jays, highlighted by top pitching prospect Zach Stewart. At the time, the Reds had fallen way out of contention and had absolutely no chance of reaching the postseason whatsoever. Thus, the rationale was that the team would try to make a realistic run at the National League Central in ’10.

If that is the goal, then, one would assume that the organization would try to keep Harang and Phillips. Arroyo is a different matter, seeing as how he has posted an FIP above 5.0 for three straight seasons; in other words, he is just not that good at pitching, is overpaid and is practically unmovable unless the team picks up the tab on his salary. If Harang and Phillips are moved, however, the Reds’ short-term chances of competing would suffer, making the Rolen deal seem even more ridiculous than it did over the summer.

Seriously, did the Reds not account for any financial troubles when they decided to go after Rolen? I mean, the economy has been in poor shape for a while now and it was clear that attendance was going to be an issue given the poor product on the field. It is not like payroll concerns could have come out of left field.

Another red flag raised in the Price article is this: “The source said the Reds would prefer to keep closer Francisco Cordero, who has two years and $25 million left on his deal.”

As I wrote here, Cordero is an elite relief ace. For a team with limited resources like Cincinnati, though, it is absurd for a relief pitcher to be taking up such a significant portion of the team payroll. If I were Walt Jocketty and had the opportunity of unloading Cordero and his salary, I would jump for joy. Bob Castellini could be tying Jocketty’s hands—there is speculation that he forced Wayne Krivsy’s hand in some of his puzzling decisions—but from an outside view, it appears that he was not the best fit for what the Reds needed at the time of the hire. He has some strengths as a general manager, but his success with the St. Louis Cardinals came when the club was in win-now mode. The Reds, on the other hand, should have been seeking a patient, progressive and shrewd GM who can win with a minimal payroll at his disposal, one who will remain up to date on trends within the industry. From the asinine Willy Taveras contract to the Rolen trade, though, he has seemingly done more harm than good since taking over for Krivsky.

It kind of reminds me of the decision to hire Dusty Baker, who is a fine leader of men but was a terrible hire for a team that should have been in rebuild mode. Baker, of course, is a decent enough manager when the team is trying to win, but his preference for mediocre veterans—which, to his credit, was not as much of an issue this past season—is not really what a up-and-coming ball club needs.

Small-market teams can cry about payroll all they want, and there are inherent disadvantages in the game. When teams like the Reds shoot themselves in the foot with Cordero- and Taveras-type deals, though, it is hard to feel too bad for them.

Griffey Headed Back To The Mariners: Why?

2009-11-11T13:04:00.003-05:00

Last week, I produced my preview of the 2010 free agent crop of designated hitters.

Well, you can now eliminate one name from that list. According to reports, Ken Griffey Jr. is headed back for one more year with the Seattle Mariners. Griffey will be paid a guaranteed $2.0-M with the chance to make up to $3.15-M in incentives, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.

Here is what I wrote about Griffey in the DH piece:

Griffey Jr. is my all-time favorite baseball player. Despite the fact that I grew up on the other side of the country in Connecticut, my room was pretty much a shrine dedicated to him, and I was a huge Seattle Mariners fan as a kid. Even when he went to the Cincinnati Reds, he was my favorite player. That is why it is sad that the end of the road appears to be near for Junior. It was definitely awesome to see the future Hall of Famer back in a Mariners uniform, but he did little to help the team’s cause when it came to winning. He hit just .214/.324/.411 with a 95 OPS+. Seeing as how he offers little value on defense at this stage, that kind of production does not cut it, and Seattle would be foolish to give him so many at-bats in the DH spot again. Here is hoping that “The Kid” goes out right now on his own terms without having someone else make that decision for him.

Nearly everything mentioned still applies. The Junior farewell tour was fine while it lasted, but I do not think that they needed to make it a two-year ordeal. Forming a DH platoon with Mike Sweeney, he posted a weak line of .214/.324/.411 with a 95 OPS+. Griffey did slug 19 homers while drawing an impressive 57 walks, which many feel shows how much pitchers still respect his ability. Still, according to FanGraphs, he was worth –0.5 runs below an average hitter—acceptable production for a slick-fielding shortstop, not a DH.

All of Griffey’s value at this point comes from his bat, of course, and he should be limited to DH duties. Indeed, as Matthew Carruth notes, he has been the fourth-worst outfield defender in the majors based on UZR since 2007, with much of the damage coming during ’07 and 2008 since he only logged 83.0 innings in the field this past season. Thus, it is not exactly ideal to waste a roster spot on a player who offers nothing on defense and is likely to decline even more with his bat as he turns 40 years old.

Again, I love Griffey*. Most casual Mariners fans still love Griffey, too. As well, the money here is reasonable and this move will not exactly cripple the club going forward, especially if he decides to accept a reduced role. Plus, he will indeed help sell tickets and does offer all of the other intangibles writers love to harp on, as well as veteran leadership. Still, though, this is a bit of a head scratcher.

*My parents let me pick a new pair of shoes for the beginning of each school year, and I used that opportunity to get the new edition of the Griffey Nikes when they came out. It was the best part about going back to school. And I spent far too much time playing Griffey Baseball for Nintendo 64 as well, always choosing the Mariners in a dynasty mode.

The Mariners deserved a pass for letting sentiment guide decisions in ’09 when they knew that contention was probably beyond reach. Considering that the club could actually be a legitimate contender in the American League West in 2010, though, I really question this move. I will not complain seeing him in a M’s uniform, which puts a smile on my face every time. But, if I were running the team with winning in mind, I would have politely declined and said goodbye to the greatest player the franchise has ever known.

Analyzing Two Ridiculous Rumors

2009-11-11T11:18:00.004-05:00

I know these are only rumors, and that it is premature to comment on deals until they become official. Two ideas that came across the FoxSports GM Meeting blog this morning were so devoid of logic, however, that I have to chime in now.

First, according to the Fox blog, the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Dodgers are discussing a potential Edwin Jackson for George Sherrill swap.

Still, a 1-for-1 trade of those players might ultimately make sense for both clubs. A big reason: Sherrill ($2.75 million) and Jackson ($2.2 million) earned very similar base salaries in salary arbitration this year. That should be the case again in 2010, which would enable the cash to balance easily. The Dodgers need a reasonably low-cost starter such as Jackson. The Tigers would like to acquire a late-inning reliever to offset the potential free-agent departures of Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon.

Makes sense for both clubs? Are you kidding me? It is not rocket science, kids. Starting pitchers have more value than relief pitchers, the most fungible role on a major league roster. Reliever performances can fluctuate year to year more than any other position, and are extremely volatile. Plus, it is considerably more difficult to find a good starting pitcher than a good reliever. An average starting pitcher, as a result of the law of supply and demand, has more value than a dominant relief ace.

Thus, trading away a legitimate starting pitcher in Jackson for a reliever like Sherrill, who is death on lefties but is not a true relief ace, would be absurd.

Here are the two pitchers WAR totals from 2007 to 2009, respectively.

Jackson: 1.5, 1.4, 3.5
Sherrill: 1.0, 0.4, 1.4

Clearly, if this deal goes down, it would be a fleecing for the Dodgers. And, considering that the team overpaid for Sherrill at the trade deadline, it would be great if they could recoup some of those prospect losses with a talented and relatively affordable starting pitcher in Jackson.

Indeed, I would not even mind a Josh Bell/Steve Johnson for Jackson trade. At least not as much as one that sent those players for a reliever like Sherrill. The right-hander had an excellent first half in his first season with Detroit but struggled after the All-Star break. Over a full season, he posted rates of 6.77 K/9, 2.94 BB/9 and 1.14 HR/9 with a 3.62 ERA and 4.28 FIP.

The improvement in his walk rate was the biggest difference, of course, and it was a decent season overall. Scouts have always loved his plus stuff, waiting for him to put it together after years of mediocrity with the Tampa Bay Rays. Going back to the National League, Jackson could be a tremendous asset for the Dodgers.

Indeed, for Sherrill, it would be a heist. The Tigers are having payroll issue, but in no way, shape or form, should they swap a starter who has a similar salary to a reliever. The team should indeed let Fernando Rodney—who had the saves but only average peripherals—walk if he is not willing to take a reasonable deal for fewer than three years. Giving up an asset like Jackson to fill that void with Sherrill, though, would be asinine.

Here is to hoping that this is indeed a rumor and not something seriously being considered by the Detroit front office.

Speaking of Rodney, the other report that stuck out to me was the Philadelphia Phillies’ reported interest in the free agent closer. He saves 37 games in 38 chances, which were mostly the function of opportunity and the result of being put in easy save situations. In this day and age, though, we know better than to evaluate a closer on his saves totals, which are perhaps the least effective way to gauge a relief pitcher’s effectiveness.

In reality, Rodney really did not have that great of a season. For one, he managed just a 4.40 ERA and 104 ERA+, which are obviously not a lot to write home about. More concerning, though, he walked 4.88 batters per nine innings while managing just a 7.26 K/9 rate. His FIP was actually worse than his ERA, sitting at 4.56. His production translated to 0.3 WAR, the lowest total of his career.

Some team will be dumb enough to pay him for the saves and “proven” closer label nonsense. Said team, however, will be making a mistake. Getting insurance for Brad Lidge should be a priority for the Phillies, but paying Rodney millions for that role and having so much money tied up into two closers would be a pretty hefty misallocation of financial resources.