TYWKIWDBI ("Tai-Wiki-Widbee")

Latvian manhole cover

2026-07-31T14:45:36.646-05:00

No useful comments in the Facebook discussion thread. I could't find evidence that this image is from Hieronymus Bosch. I've joined the group to see what else might be posted there. There is also a subreddit of manholeporn where years ago I found this very "metal" manhole cover.

This is what is keeping crude oil and gas/diesel prices from skyrocketing

2026-07-31T12:25:57.125-05:00

When Trump and Netanyahu started this war, much of the attention in the business world was focused on the price of crude oil (Brent, WTI) and the derivative products (gasoline, diesel, fertilizer, plastics). When the Strait was closed and then reopened via the MOU, prices fluctuated accordingly, but what has been of most interest to me is that the market prices of those materials have not continued to rise as much as might be expected.

Everyone who tracks the news knows that the U.S. and other countries are tapping their "strategic petroleum reserves" stored underground (some small countries don't have such and are suffering disproportionately).

The second group of factors that mitigated price rises was increased use of alternative energy, restrictions on energy usage, increased production in non-Gulf nations etc.

But from near the beginning, I heard analysts on Bloomberg say that China was modifying its policy on oil. China apparently has immense reserves of stored oil, but were still net oil importers (see chart above for 2016-2026). After the war started, they have markedly decreased their importation of oil, apparently using some of their reserves and altering domestic policies toward conservation.

Why? In part, it's basic economic good sense when the Brent price goes from 50 to 90 to cut purchases. But this is a super-smart country with well-thought-out international policies. They also have a sort of alliance with Iran, which I believe was one of their sources for imported oil in recent years. By cutting their daily imports from 12 million to 7 million they buffer the world's loss of I think 5 million a day that was passing Hormuz.

Is it in their best interest (remembering that they think years/decades in advance, not election cycles) to keep the oil price rise modest so as not to harm the economies of the world they export to? Or do they want to keep the price down because a huge price rise might cause the U.S. to stop the war and they would rather the war go on longer so the U.S. depletes its own reserves and the continuation of the war leads to more and more destruction of the U.S. military capabilities? I suspect the latter, because I think there is way more erosion of U.S. capabilites in the Gulf than Washington has (or will) admit.

Also note that Iran wants to charge fees for transit of Hormuz and that those fees would be paid in Chinese yuan, not U.S. dollars. (a relevant WSJ article is behind a paywall) This was is weakening the U.S. military capabilities, depleting strategic petroleum reserves, ruining the U.S. diplomatic status around the world, and causing unhappiness and political dissent within the U.S. China has a lot of control over how this will unfold. Stay tuned.

Brilliant

2026-07-30T21:23:02.314-05:00

Found in The Babylon Bee ("Fake News You Can Trust"), where there is tongue-in-cheek discussion of the topic.

Update on the war

2026-07-29T14:41:16.450-05:00

As reported by the Institute for the Study of War yesterday (July 28). I was so glad to see an informed discussion of the various competing groups within the Iranian regime.

Note this was written just before the latest acceleration of hostilities.

For those unfamiliar with the source: "The Institute for the Study of War advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives. ISW is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization."

Gilding bronze statues in Washington

2026-07-29T13:07:36.668-05:00

I might comment later. Got chores to do first.

link to be added -

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-unveils-bright-gold-sculptures-washington-dc-overhaul-arts-of-war-12252480

"Colossal" - recommended (with a reservation)

2026-07-28T12:26:17.327-05:00

This movie has been categorized as "black comedy sci-fi", which seems reasonably appropriate. It's not a new movie (2017) but was new to me last night, and this morning I decided to share some thoughts.

Most science fiction requires some "suspension of disbelief" in order for the viewer or reader to "enter" and enjoy the story. Conventional storylines may require your rational hemisphere to accept time travel, faster-than-light vehicles, aliens who speak English, or hybrid humanoid synths; once you do that, you're "good to go."

For this movie the required suspension of disbelief is evident in the trailer embedded above. Anne Hathaway is excellent in her lead role as a young woman who is simultaneously a Seoul-crushing monster.

My one reservation regarding enjoying the movie is in regard to Jason Sudeikis' character. "Colossal" was released in 2016, four years before Sudeikis emerged as "Ted Lasso" in the recurring TV series. If you start the movie (as I did) with a mindset that Ted Lasso is flirting with Anne Hathaway in a rom-com, then you will need to make major readjustments, because his character has a major (and dominating) dark side evident in the closing scenes. There is also implied commentary on the potentially detrimental effects of alcohol consumption.

But if you like Anne Hathaway, you might give this one a try. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 82%, with professional reviewers bouncing all over the place from "unmissable" to "incomprehensible." Your thoughts/memories are welcome in the Comments.

Comprehensive longread on war negotiations

2026-07-28T11:37:35.223-05:00

An "explainer" column today in Al Jazeera provides detailed insight into the ongoing negotiations. I won't excerpt here; those interested can browse the various sections at the link.

Adjustable light bulbs

2026-07-27T16:11:18.826-05:00

I was today years old when I discovered that there are adjustable light bulbs. Had to replace some of the bulbs in several ceiling cans. Got to Target without checking what type of bulbs (warm vs. cool) were in the other cans, and discovered that now you can buy multipurpose bulbs and then adjust them at home.

The older I get the more I find myself echoing my 97-year old late mother's phrase of awe and admiration: "This modern world..."

Your tax money at work

2026-07-27T13:59:15.797-05:00

From the June 2026 issue of Harper's Magazine. I will defer comments, but I suspect readers will have some thoughts.

Dandelion bonsai

2026-07-26T11:40:23.892-05:00

It was not until my adult retirement years that I began to understand that dandelions are perennials. I have harvested some really deep-rooted ones in the loose soil of a backyard tomato patch (I even pondered entering one such plant into a state fair ag competition). And it was not until yesterday that I discovered that they can be used for bonsai-type art.

I found enough other material online to be reassured that the image above isn't pure AI. Whether it is true "bonsai" can be argued; you can read about such viewpoints at Reddit and via the Google AI.

Three-year-old plays the piano

2026-07-25T08:32:44.715-05:00

Via The Music Man. Note this is done entirely by memory without looking at any sheet music. I think I was eight years old before I could stumble my way through "Für Elise" (which I have just learned is one of two melodies played on Taiwan garbage trucks to alert residents of their presence).

Hormuz update

2026-07-25T08:13:04.222-05:00

Found on Facebook. The company's website does not mention this event, but I did find this report from two days ago, which cites the Financial Times and Reuters (to which I don't subscribe).

Greek maritime security company Marisks said the Acheloos and Kavomaleas were struck at about the same time, as they transited the US-facilitated southern Hormuz corridor.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said two tankers “exploded” and were immobilised after attempting what it called unsafe southern route through the strait, Reuters reported.

Those who care about the ocean and the environment will be pleased to read that the supertanker was empty: "The tanker had been scheduled to load more than 500,000 barrels of oil in the Middle East Gulf."

I found this in Jerusalem Post

2026-07-23T16:49:04.433-05:00

MK Moshe Saada (Likud) said on Thursday that "an attack against Iran is approaching," during an interview with Channel 14 News.

Saada's comments were made against the backdrop of growing tensions between the United States and Iran, and assessments that an escalation could occur in the coming days.

During the interview, while discussing Iran and the possibility of further escalation, Saada said, “We all know that we are approaching an attack on Iran, perhaps even as early as this weekend; those are the assessments.”

The channel quickly presented the remarks under the headline, “MK Moshe Saada’s slip of the tongue.” However, this was not the first time Saada had publicly addressed the possibility of an imminent attack.

Over the past week, he suggested on several occasions that, in his assessment, military action could take place within days. His remarks therefore appeared to be deliberate rather than an accidental disclosure.

At the same time, Channel 13 News reporter Michael Shemesh reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office was furious over Saada’s comments on Channel 14. According to the report, the Prime Minister’s Office viewed the remarks seriously.

That was posted at 2223 today Jerusalem time, which was less than an hour ago.

I have seen similar suggestions on Al Jazeera and on unreliable Facebook pages. To see it being openly discussed in Israeli media is another matter altogether, and very worrying, because Trump has been saying that he will decide soon whether to escalate further because of the involvement of the Houthis. IMO putting "boots on the ground" would be catastrophic.

AI is the new Photoshop

2026-07-22T12:29:10.109-05:00

It wasn't that long ago that Photoshop was the top-of-the-line image-altering program. The new AI technology has left the crude tools of Photoshop in the dust. The image above was posted on Facebook with a request: "Could you fabulous and talented artists put my friend's mom doing activities or things she'd never want her mom to do?" I've embedded below just four of the dozens of clever and skillful images posted on the thread.

"The Hermit of Treig"

2026-07-21T12:42:55.606-05:00

Yesterday evening I was looking for some distraction from doomscrolling the internet. While wandering around I found the above movie on Amazon Prime (free with ads). The sparse Wikipedia entry described it as a Scottish documentary portrait of an elderly man who has lived for 40 years "off the grid" in a log cabin in the Highlands. The film has received multiple audience awards at festivals and was the Best Single Documentary at the 2022 British Academy Scotland Awards.

Worth a try I thought. In a bad mood because of the obligatory introductory ads on Prime, I at first became frustrated with the film's slow progression and started to click the fast-forward a few times. But then the story started to fill out with some historical context about the earlier life of this remarkable man wandering the Yukon. Within half an hour I was totally absorbed, and by the end I deemed it to be worth recommending to others.

The film will not be for everyone. If someone is Gen Z with a vibrant social and digital life, the appeal of this man's story will be severely muted or absent. For me there was a very strong resonance since I am older than he is and have always treasured time spent in the woods (but I cringed every time I saw him carrying his firewood over irregular rocky ground without even a proper walking stick). I am pleased to offer a "spoiler" by reporting that he is very much alive and well at the end of the film (and today).

My local library system did not have a DVD of this movie, but I did find that he has written a book (The way of the hermit : my incredible 40 years living in the wilderness, by Ken Smith).

2026-07-20T21:41:08.180-05:00

Upcoming BBC series on evolution

2026-07-20T13:40:59.295-05:00

Very much looking forward to this. Premieres October 14, 2026 on PBS (NOVA) in the USA.

Was the sign designed like this on purpose ?

2026-07-19T20:58:39.864-05:00

A challenge

2026-07-19T12:25:02.038-05:00

I've been enjoying the cryptic puzzles in Harper's for decades. After you figure out the cleverly-constructed clues, entering the answer often involves another step, as in this case.

I've not embedded the entire puzzle, because blogging ethics standards on TYWKIWDBI are to drive readers to the source, not steal from the source. If any wordsmiths out there would like to tackle this very challenging grid, the full puzzle is available in the August issue of Harper's Magazine, available online or in your local library.

Trinket trade boxes

2026-07-19T11:53:56.628-05:00

Bloomington nurse and mom Roze Mulen poses with her trinket trade box, where people can swap figurines and toys.

(Roze Mulen/Provided)

The trinket trade is taking root thanks in part to America’s trending obsession with blind boxes. The Asian retail craze drives shoppers to gamble on purchases of collectible toys and figurines. But buyers don’t know which item is in the box until they open it.

Roze Mulen, a nurse and mom in Bloomington, said her office is packed full of trinkets, including duplicates she’s unknowingly bought in blind boxes. After scrolling on TikTok and seeing people across the country start trinket swaps, she decided to bring the idea to the Twin Cities suburbs...

Trinket trade boxes have lately been popping up across the Twin Cities and in the suburbs especially, as parents and artists like Ross aim to add more whimsy to their residential streets and subdivisions sometimes known for their sameness.

“I wanted to build an interactive community-wide art piece where everyone gets to feel that childhood magic,” Ross said. “It’s not just about trading items. It’s about trading moments of joy.”

Buying boxes of unknown products on the internet seems to me a chancy proposition, but moments of joy are in short supply these days, so if this variant of the Little Free Library does bring joy to others, good for them. More info at the Star Tribune.

Add "crack spread" to your economic vocabulary

2026-07-17T14:45:53.556-05:00

I found the "recent work" that Jonathan Ferro is referring to in his introduction to Jeffrey Currie. Couldn't find a text version to summarize, but here's a longwatch video interview that has extensive details about the matters being discussed:

The essence of the interview is a question about why the price of oil (as reflected by Brent crude and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) has remained (relatively) stable despite the ongoing conflict in the Gulf. Those prices went way up when the "hot war" started, then moderated back down when the "memorandum of understanding" was executed, and now they are heading back up in a gradual fashion.

I have not previously been aware of Jeffrey Currie, but his reply (starting at the 1:15 mark of the second video) is exactly what I've been thinking - so I assume he is a brilliant genius. His Wikipedia page indicates that he is a highly-respected economist at the University of Chicago. Listen to as much of that interview as you have time for. I heard the same arguments presented live to Jonathan Ferro this morning on Bloomber's Surveillance program in the pre-market and I was blown away by the insights.

For the TLDR and TLDW crowd, I'll add some more nuggets. First the definition of "crack spread":

Crack spread is a term used on the oil industry and futures trading for the differential between the price of crude oil and petroleum products extracted from it. The spread approximates the profit margin that an oil refinery can expect to make by "cracking" the long-chain hydrocarbons of crude oil into useful shorter-chain petroleum products.

And before I move on, one note. Any juvenile salacious comments about "crack spread" will be instantly vaporized on review. The comment section here is for serious discussions of the world economy.

Here is an inadequate quick summary for those without the patience to watch the videos. The news media and the general public focus on the "price of oil," but nobody actually uses crude oil. People use gasoline, farmers and truckers and businesses use diesel, everyone uses plastic - but those are all products, not creude material. The only entities that use crude oil are refiners, who are now working at maximum capacity and unable to ramp up further production. The demand for these end products persists [unless demand destruction occurs - a separate issue], so right now the price for the products is huge. His rough example is that while Brent oil is USD70/bbl, the price for the products averages USD140/bbl - that "crack spread" is the highest he has seen in 30 years. Meanwhile, Ukraine has been hammering Russian oil reserves and Russia's refining capacity and the earthquake in Venezuela took out part of their refining capacity. Crude oil prices dropped when the "memorandum of understanding" was signed because a flood of tankers left the Strait of Hormuz, but without a continuing flow the price is edging back up and there is currently no reason for that to change. When this conflict started, the U.S. and other countries started to harvest their strategic petroleum reserves, which are now getting low (some other countries have exhausted theirs or have never had petroleum reserves in storage). If the U.S. continues to empty its strategic petroleum reserve to cover up the shortages of crude exiting the gulf, the potential scenario is catastrophic.

The long video also includes some discussion about how China (allied with Iran) also has control of much of the worlds critical metals, plus they are leading the world in energy storage (batteries) and in wind and nuclear technologies. IMHO the future belongs to China, which staffs their administration with scientists.

Addendum: Markets are now opening in Asia...

Addendum: A nice chart of transits through the Strait of Hormuz, showing the initial "hot war," the MOU period, and the resurgence of hostilities. I'll see if I can find an updated chart of strategic petroleum reserves.

Do you remember the "alphabet game" ?

2026-07-17T13:34:40.091-05:00

My father's career was as a traveling salesman, driving five states selling electrical equipment to local utilities. So when our family went on vacation, it was by car, not by plane. We drove from Minnesota to visit family in Pennsylvania or Florida or Nevada, and on those seemingly endless days on the highway (most of them in the pre-interstate highway era) we played games, including the "alphabet game" which required one to find the letters of the alphabet consecutively on signs, license plates, etc. Those with similar memories will appreciate this modern billboard posted by the Sign Appreciation Society on Facebook.

At some future time I want to write a post about Burma Shave signs.

How does music become "popular" ?

2026-07-17T13:25:19.922-05:00

Do you ever get the sense that many of the so-called mainstream pop stars whose images you unwittingly encounter dozens of times a day aren’t as “mainstream” or “popular” as you’re told they are? Do you give one eighth of a fuck about Dua Lipa, Zara Larsson, Childish Gambino, Bebe Rexha, or Shawn Mendes? Does your mother? Your little cousin? Your boss? The person delivering your mail? Your barista? Have you (or has anyone close to you) ever spent real money on anything these artists are selling? Do you, or anyone around you, follow them with any interest in what they make or do?...
And Spelman said: “In the past, a label and management team would do a great job getting their artist on SNL or Tiny Desk or Triple J, post it, and then kind of wait, and the comments would come in: terrible cover choice, voice sounds terrible, all that. What we do at Chaotic Good with our management clients is this: the second the SNL performance drops at midnight, you should post one hundred times saying that was the best performance of the year. The question is how you do that at scale. It takes a lot of work and infrastructure, but controlling the narrative is really, really important.”...

This is precisely how contemporary digital-music marketing operates, less as targeted exposure or coercion and more as the quiet reconstruction of the conditions under which discovery appears to occur. Not by introducing music to listeners but by staging the conditions in which it feels as though it arrived on its own.

More details in the "Getting Shilled" article in the June issue of Harper's Magazine.

Just for fun: "Good Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die"

2026-07-17T13:19:19.048-05:00

I watched this DVD from our library last night and thoroughly enjoyed it (rated it 3.5 on my 0-4 scale, which means "good enough to recommend" but not "worth watching again", which requires a 4.0).

From the trailer it should be evident that the storyline presents over-the-top craziness involving a future dystopic apocalypse - which is oddly enough a pleasant relief from scanning the internet for info re politics and the Gulf war. I was going to call it a "screwball comedy" but that term I will reserve for Cary Grant, Katherine Hepburn, Rosalind Russell et al in Bringing Up Baby, His Girl Friday et al.

The premise here is that the protagonist is in a Groundhog Day loop trying to prevent a worldwide catastrophe triggered by social media and cellphones. If you can roll with that, you can enjoy the movie. Sam Rockwell is joined by Juno Temple (Ted Lasso, Fargo fifth season) and the perhaps underappreciated Haley Lu Richardson (superb in Columbus).

Two interesting numbers about teenagers

2026-07-17T13:00:46.142-05:00

Percentage of Americans who were paid to babysit as teenagers: 56
Who say they would trust a teenager to babysit today: 11

Numbers from the June issue of Harper's magazine. As phrased it's not clear to me whether the 11% is of Americans or of Americans who babysat as teenagers. In either case the discrepancy is striking.

Addendum: interesting comment by an anonymous reader: "Slight twist on the same idea: I don't trust adults not to sue me if my teen makes a mistake while babysitting.'