2011-2012 NBA Season Predictions

Klimowicz	Russell
Atlantic
Central
Southeast
Southwest
Northwest
Pacific
Playoff Seedings
East Seeds 1. MIA 2. CHI 3. BOS 4. NYK 5. ATL 6. ORL 7. IND 8. PHI West Seeds 1. OKC 2. LAC 3. LAL 4. MEM 5. SA 6. DAL 7. UTA 8. GS	East Seeds 1. CHI 2. MIA 3. NYK 4. ATL 5. BOS 6. NJ 7. ORL 8. IND West Seeds 1. OKC 2. DAL 3. LAL 4. LAC 5. MEM 6. SA 7. DEN 8. POR
Conference Finals
ECF CHI defeats NYK in 5 WCF OKC defeats LAC in 7	ECF CHI defeats MIA in 6 WCF OKC defeats LAL in 6
NBA Champion
in 6	in 7
Finals MVP: Kevin Durant	Finals MVP: Derrick Rose
Season Awards
MVP: Kevin Durant ROY: Kyrie Irving DPOY: Tyson Chandler 6th Man: James Harden Most Improved: DeAndre Jordan Coach: Mike D'Antoni	MVP: Derrick Rose ROY: Derrick Williams DPOY: LeBron James 6th Man: Jason Terry Most Improved: Vince Carter Coach: Mike D'Antoni

Do the names Wade Smith, Chris Myers, Mike Brisiel, Duane Brown or Eric Winston sound recognizable? Winston should be, as he signed a 5-year, $30 million extension in 2008. Nonetheless, many won’t be able to tell you who these five are or even the team they play for, but these players are the main contributors to the Texans running game and have made Arian Foster into the star he is today.

The holes that are created by the offensive line are gaping; they do a masterful job on their zone assignments. Foster’s 2010 was a breakout campaign indeed, but he was not the only back who experienced success in Houston. Foster’s 4.9 yard per carry average was tied for second on the team with Steve Slaton and behind Derrick Ward’s impressive 6.3. Even Ben Tate has averaged 4.7 YPC through the first six games of the 2011 season.

Don’t get me wrong. Foster is good. He can hit and burst through a hole, but a majority of NFL running backs could hit the holes this offensive line provides with ease. The entire line does a pretty good job of keeping Matt Schaub protected (12th in sacks allowed in 2010 at 32) and allowing the big plays down the field to Andre Johnson. This group was also ranked 25th in experience in 2010 in terms of career starts, so it’s not as if they are a veteran group. Regardless of their pass blocking ability, their expertise is obviously in the running game.

But how is it possible that Houston has all these “great” running backs on their roster? Because it isn’t the running backs at all. Just look at Derrick Ward’s 2009 YPC with Tampa Bay. It was a paltry 3.6. Steve Slaton was so great for Houston that he was cut and is now on the Miami Dolphins.

The entire Houston offense is based around a zone blocking scheme that was implemented in 2008 by Alex Gibbs, the same Alex Gibbs who was the architect behind the successful offensive line of the Denver Broncos in the mid ’90s-early 2000s. Look at the seasons that lines coached under Gibbs produced for running backs in Denver, Atlanta and Houston:

Running Back Seasons Under An Alex Gibbs O-Line

Let’s not forget that after Gibbs left Denver, Reuben Droughns produced 1240 yards and 6 TD at a 4.5 YPC clip in 2004.

When there is conversation that includes how great Arian Foster is, remember that a lot of his success is not just his own doing, but rather the effort of the offensive line and their coach John Benton, who studied under Gibbs during his time in Houston. The men in the trenches are just as important, if not more important, in the success of running the ball. Sometimes the big men get overlooked.

Foster indeed deserves credit but is everyone directing all the credit in the right direction? Is he overrated? Debate.

Kobe Bryant, SG – Los Angeles Lakers

There’s no doubt that the one person who benefits the most from a potential shortened season is Kobe Bryant. After seven NBA Finals appearances and averaging the lowest PPG in his career since 2003 (25.3), his body needs the extra rest, more specifically, his knees and arthritic index finger. The rumors of Bryant playing in Italy have yet to materialize, and the most likely scenario is he goes there for a game or two. A 60-game season enables Bryant to be more productive throughout. He’ll get another chance to tie #23 for the elusive sixth ring without having to destroy his body as much as previous seasons.

The Old Guys (Boston, San Antonio, Dallas)

The theme here is old. The older teams in the league will have a chance to rest their creaky bodies and not fade down the stretch (see 2011 Spurs). Suddenly, the grind of a full 82-game season is gone and a shortened season won’t be as daunting on tired legs. They may have a psychological edge because they realize a short season could be their last real chance to win/steal a championship. If 2010 was the changing of the guard, then 2011 could be “out with the new and in with the old.”

The Bottom Feeders (Cleveland, Minnesota, Toronto)

Yes, I do mean the Cavaliers, Timberwolves, and Raptors. Over the course of an 82-game season, there’s just no way these bottom feeders could finish with a better record than teams like Boston, Oklahoma City or Los Angeles. However, given a shortened season and the relatively higher probability that the bottom teams could defeat the better teams in a single game, it stands to reason that some bottom feeders could sneak into the playoffs. (Cavs-Twolves NBA Finals anyone? If that were to be the Finals and we knew this ahead of time, let’s just cancel the season now.) Of course, it will give these teams lower draft picks, but why not take advantage of a shortened season? New York took advantage in 1999. Besides, these shortened seasons only come around every 13 years or so.

Kevin Durant, SF – Oklahoma City Thunder

Improving his skills during the lockout and putting on offensive shows, Durant has progressed while others have regressed or plateaued. A shortened season allows KD to use that advantage and put up epic numbers, especially early on against players who may be out of shape and unready to play. His place among the NBA elite had been cemented before this summer, but now he’s reached another stratosphere. If all falls into place and given his momentum from this summer, Durant could get his first of many rings.

Tim Duncan, PF – San Antonio Spurs

A short season enables Timmy to give more on the floor each night and play more minutes. Remember, this is a contract year for Duncan and anything he can do to remove the memory of his sub par 2010 is a positive. It’ll be his chance to show the Spurs, and potential other suitors, he still has something left in the tank.

** denotes Wild Card winner

2011 NFL Season Predictions

Klimowicz	Russell	Price	Lamb
AFC East
12-4	13-3	12-4	12-4
**9-7	**11-5	**11-5	**10-6
7-9	5-11	7-9	5-11
5-11	4-12	6-10	5-11
AFC North
11-5	12-4	11-5	12-4
**10-6	**10-6	**10-6	**9-7
8-8	6-10	8-8	7-9
3-13	4-12	2-14	4-12
AFC South
10-6	10-6	10-6	10-6
9-7	9-7	9-7	9-7
7-9	7-9	7-9	6-10
4-12	2-14	4-12	3-13
AFC West
12-4	10-6	12-4	10-6
8-8	10-6	10-6	7-9
7-9	5-11	6-10	6-10
4-12	3-13	4-12	6-10
NFC East
13-3	11-5	10-6	10-6
**10-6	**10-6	**10-6	**10-6
8-8	9-7	7-9	8-8
6-10	7-9	4-12	5-11
NFC North
12-4	12-4	13-3	12-4
**9-7	**9-7	**9-7	8-8
8-8	8-8	8-8	8-8
6-10	7-9	6-10	6-10
NFC South
11-5	10-6	11-5	10-6
9-7	9-7	8-8	**9-7
7-9	8-8	7-9	8-8
4-12	3-13	5-11	3-13
NFC West
9-7	9-7	9-7	9-7
8-8	8-8	8-8	8-8
6-10	6-10	7-9	6-10
4-12	5-11	5-11	5-11
Playoff Seedings
AFC Seeds 1. NE 2. SD 3. PIT 4. HOU 5. BAL 6. NYJ NFC Seeds 1. PHI 2. GB 3. NO 4. ARZ 5. DAL 6. DET	AFC Seeds 1. NE 2. PIT 3. IND 4. KC 5. NYJ 6. BAL NFC Seeds 1. GB 2. PHI 3. NO 4. STL 5. DAL 6. MIN	AFC Seeds 1. SD 2. NE 3. BAL 4. HOU 5. NYJ 6. PIT NFC Seeds 1. GB 2. NO 3. PHI 4. ARZ 5. NYG 6. DET	AFC Seeds 1. PIT 2. NE 3. SD 4. HOU 5. NYJ 6. BAL NFC Seeds 1. GB 2. DAL 3. ATL 4. ARZ 5. PHI 6. TB
Championship Games
AFC Championship NE defeats SD NFC Championship PHI defeats DAL	AFC Championship NE defeats IND NFC Championship PHI defeats GB	AFC Championship SD defeats BAL NFC Championship GB defeats PHI	AFC Championship PIT defeats SD NFC Championship DAL defeats PHI
Super Bowl XLVI Champion
27-24 MVP: Tom Brady	31-21 MVP: Jerod Mayo	34-26 MVP: Philip Rivers	24-20 MVP: Rashard Mendenhall
Offensive Season Awards
MVP: Philip Rivers OPOY: Mike Vick OROY: Mark Ingram	MVP: Mike Vick OPOY: Adrian Peterson OROY: A.J. Green	MVP: Aaron Rodgers OPOY: Adrian Peterson OROY: Mark Ingram	MVP: Philip Rivers OPOY: Mike Vick OROY: Cam Newton
Defensive and Other Season Awards
DPOY: Ndamukong Suh DROY: Von Miller COY: Jim Schwartz CBOY: Matt Stafford	DPOY: Patrick Willis DROY: Patrick Peterson COY: Todd Haley CBOY: Plaxico Burress	DPOY: Darrelle Revis DROY: Patrick Peterson COY: Sean Payton CBOY: Jermichael Finley	DPOY: DeMarcus Ware DROY: Robert Quinn COY: Mike Tomlin CBOY: Plaxico Burress

Rankings and points based on a standard scoring system:
Pass TD = 4, 25 Pass Yards = 1, Rush/Rec TD = 6, 10 Rush/Rec Yards = 1

2011 Fantasy football coverage: QB | RB | WR | TE | Love/Loathe

Love

Michael Vick (QB) – Philadelphia Eagles [QB Rank: 1]

See the reason for Vick’s love here.

Josh Freeman (QB) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers [QB Rank: 8]

A second year QB throwing to rookie receivers and handing off to a rookie running back and yet throws for near 3500 yards and 25 TD is a superstar in the making. More chemistry and development with his weapons along with Freeman’s ability to use his legs makes for a top 10 quarterback available in the 7th round.

LeGarrette Blount (RB) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers [RB Rank: 10]

More Buccaneer love. The 250 pound wrecking machine wrestled away the starting job from Cadillac Williams the last seven games and blasted his way to 1000 yards and 6 TD on only 200 carries (5.0 YPC) in 13 games. Now with Williams in St. Louis, he has no competition for carries and because of his size, he’ll undoubtedly receive the bulk of the goal-line work. Currently the 15th RB off the board in drafts, Blount is undervalued.

Jahvid Best (RB) – Detroit Lions [RB Rank: 24]

Best is fully healed from a turf toe injury that nagged him throughout 2010. He’s in line to get the majority of the carries thanks to Mikel Leshoure’s season ending Achilles tear. He is great value in PPR leagues as he was targeted 80 times (4th most among RB) last season. His speed and agility are back to pre-injury levels in camp and that can only mean good things moving forward. A LeSean McCoy-like season is in store.

Larry Fitzgerald (WR) – Arizona Cardinals [WR Rank: 3]

90 receptions, 1100 yards and 6 TD for Fitz was a miracle considering who was throwing to him. No matter how you much you believe in Kevin Kolb, you have to admit he’s better than all of Arizona’s QBs last year, combined. A return to the top 5 for Larry Fitzgerald is imminent.

Chad Ochocinco (WR) – New England Patriots [WR Rank: 19]

A change of scenery is just what the doctor ordered for Ocho. He’s a top option for a potent offense that loves to throw. A revival of Ochocinco as a top 20 wideout is very possible and makes a great flex option or solid WR2.

Jimmy Graham (TE) – New Orleans Saints [TE Rank: 10]

Graham ended 2010 with 4 TD in his last three games and is now the starting TE in New Orleans. Obviously the Saints and Sean Payton believe in Graham enough to let Jeremy Shockey go, and his talent is undeniable; he’s a highlight reel at the position. New Orleans loves to throw to their tight ends in the red zone – Jeremy Shockey and David Thomas were targeted a combined 21 times in the red zone in 2010. Look for Graham to be on the receiving end of those red zone passes.

Loathe

Jay Cutler (QB) – Chicago Bears [QB Rank: 19]

Cutler only had one 300+ yard game in 2010 (Week 1), five games where threw more interceptions than TDs, and had less than 250 yards passing in the last nine games of the season. The Bears O-line still remains questionable and lost C Olin Kreutz to New Orleans. Not much upside here.

Maurice Jones-Drew (RB) – Jacksonville Jaguars [RB Rank: 6]

Jones-Drew is still recovering from knee surgery in the offseason and has been limited in camp. The Jaguar offense is far from a juggernaut and could have a rookie QB under center if David Garrard’s injury remains a problem. Rashad Jennings proved he could handle the load when Jones-Drew was out, and could signal a downshift in Maurice Jones-Drew’s ceiling.

Peyton Hillis (RB) – Cleveland Browns [RB Rank: 15]

Hillis slowed down in the second half of the season, averaging 3.8 YPC, and was shut out of the endzone on the ground for the last five games. It is clear he was overworked. Cleveland brought in Brandon Jackson and return a healthy Montario Hardesty to relieve the Madden cover boy. Hillis will see a decline in touches to keep him fresh.

Brandon Lloyd (WR) – Denver Broncos [WR Rank: 20]

Prior to 2010, Lloyd never had more than 48 receptions or 750 yards receiving. His numbers were inflated thanks to head coach Josh McDaniels’ offensive scheme. With McDaniels gone and conservative John Fox in, Lloyd will still be the top option for the Broncos, but his numbers will be nowhere close to 2010, especially if Tim Tebow is under center.

Rankings and points based on a standard scoring system:
Pass TD = 4, 25 Pass Yards = 1, Rush/Rec TD = 6, 10 Rush/Rec Yards = 1. Fumbles lost and 2PT conversions are calculated in projections.

2011 Fantasy football coverage: QB | RB | WR | TE | Love/Loathe

1. Antonio Gates – San Diego Chargers

Despite missing 6 games to injury, Gates completely dominated the tight end position. In fact, 2010′s #1 TE Jason Witten didn’t pass him in fantasy points until Week 16, after Gates’ season had been done for three weeks. However, Gates comes with an injury risk. He’s battled toe and foot injuries for what seems like his entire career, but until 2010, the most games he had missed in a single season was one. Gates is a warrior and his reward is well worth the risk. However, the price may not be. His current ADP (via FFtoolbox.com) has him at 38.79, early 4th round. Owners can wait 15 picks and select guys like Dallas Clark, Jason Witten, and Vernon Davis. His potential points can blow other TE out of the water. It’s just a matter of whether he can do it without being injured.

2. Dallas Clark – Indianapolis Colts

Dallas Clark is one of Peyton Manning’s most trusted options, and it’s clear he is the #2 guy in Indy behind Reggie Wayne. The Colts love to air it out and Clark will get his targets, but if Austin Collie and/or Pierre Garcon play well and stay healthy, they could take some looks away from Clark. Nonetheless, that trust with Manning cannot be understated and with all the question marks surrounding Manning’s health and the running game, Clark is as consistent as they get at tight end. Draft with confidence.

3. Jermichael Finley – Green Bay Packers

The demolition of the top tight ends started with Jermichael Finley. He only played four games in 2010, but he produced two 100 yard games and recorded at least 4 receptions in each game. He has promised to change the tight end position and with the Super Bowl MVP throwing to him in a pass-happy offense, that is a believable statement. Draft him with expectations of a career season.

4. Jason Witten – Dallas Cowboys

The #1 TE in 2010 certainly played well enough to denote the honor, but it was the above three TE going down to injury that basically handed it to him. He notched his second consecutive 94 catch, 1000 yard season and finally found the end zone more than two times. Witten is valuable in PPR leagues, averaging 91 catches the past four seasons. The return of Tony Romo will help him achieve his third straight 90 catch, 1000 yard season. He’s the safest pick of all tight ends.

5. Vernon Davis – San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers passing game has improved with the addition of Braylon Edwards and that bodes well for Davis’ prospects. Proving that his 2009 was not a fluke, Davis had 900+ yards and 56+ receptions for the second consecutive year. While it’s unlikely that he’ll ever approach 13 TD again, a range of 6-8 TD is very reasonable for Davis. He’ll be hampered by his quarterback as long as Alex Smith is under center and 2011 will see another year of Smith. Still, Vernon Davis is a top 5 TE and if the 49ers somehow upgrade at QB, he could very well catapult into the top 3.

6. Kellen Winslow
7. Owen Daniels
8. Mercedes Lewis
9. Chris Cooley
10. Jimmy Graham
11. Greg Olsen
12. Brandon Pettigrew
13. Benjamin Watson
14. Zach Miller
15. Dustin Keller
16. Tony Gonzalez
17. Rob Gronkowski
18. Aaron Hernandez
19. Brent Celek
20. Todd Heap
21. Tony Moeaki
22. Jared Cook
23. Visanthe Shiancoe
24. Kevin Boss
25. Heath Miller
26. Jermaine Gresham
27. Ed Dickson
28. Michael Hoomanawanui
29. Anthony Fasano
30. Dante Rosario

Rankings and points based on a standard scoring system:
Pass TD = 4, 25 Pass Yards = 1, Rush/Rec TD = 6, 10 Rush/Rec Yards = 1. Fumbles lost and 2PT conversions are calculated in projections.

2011 Fantasy football coverage: QB | RB | WR | TE | Love/Loathe

1. Calvin Johnson – Detroit Lions

Megatron is perhaps the most athletically gifted receiver in the league and has proven that it doesn’t matter who throws him the ball – he’ll still put up numbers. He has two 12 TD seasons in his career and if Matt Stafford can stay healthy for an entire season (that’s a big if), Johnson could lead the league in touchdowns. He has only missed three games in his career, so any talk of him being an injury risk is overblown. Johnson isn’t a 100 catch receiver, but when he does catch it, chances are, it’s in the endzone. Whether it’s Stafford, Shaun Hill, Zac Robinson, or Johnson throwing it up to himself, he is going to be the stud in an emerging Detroit offense. Few other WR can still put rack up points without a QB. He is unstoppable. Draft with the utmost confidence.

2. Andre Johnson – Houston Texans

Andre Johnson has finished in the top eight in points scored for wide receivers in three consecutive seasons. In 2009, Johnson was #1 and in 2008, he was #2. He could have very likely ended up in the top two had he not gone down with an injury that he played with almost the entire season. However, Johnson is now 30 years old and has already suffered a dislocated finger during training camp. Whether it bothers him as the season progresses is something to watch. Johnson has never had less than 60 catches in a season and has scored at least 8 TD in four straight seasons. Make it five.

3. Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals

Prior to last season, Fitzgerald was a top six fantasy receiver for three straight years and despite having a comical array of quarterbacks throwing to him, Fitzgerald somehow managed 90 catches and 1100 yards. His TD took a big hit but so did the entire Cardinals offense without Kurt Warner. Now that Kevin Kolb is the quarterback in Arizona, expect Fitzgerald to return to his elite status. He tied for first in red zone targets last year and it’s a good bet he will lead in red zone targets again. Owners can bank on a fifth straight 1000 yard season. He could be had for great value if other owners are not sold on Kolb’s ability. Let them question Fitz.

4. Roddy White – Atlanta Falcons

White led the NFL in targets (an absurd 179) and receptions (115) last season, but don’t expect that to happen again in 2011. The addition of Julio Jones should spread out the Atlanta passing game and decrease his targets, but White will still be a threat in the red zone; he was fourth in red zone targets amongst receivers last season and that should continue into 2011. Since becoming the #1 option in 2007, White had averaged 85 receptions, 1246 yards and 9 TD prior to 2010. His 2011 should normalize to those numbers. He’ll finish in the top seven for a fourth straight season, but he will be nowhere close to finishing as the top wideout.

5. Greg Jennings – Green Bay Packers

Through the Packers first four games, Jermichael Finley led the team in receptions and yards, but only had one TD compared to Jennings’ three. Then Finley was lost for the season and Jennings went nuts. With Finley back, expectations for Jennings are lower but he remains a viable option as a WR1. Jennings had 17 red zone targets, scoring on 7 of them (41%). He’s the main deep threat on Green Bay, amassing 21 20+ yard receptions (T-3rd), and 6 40+ yard receptions (5th). Yeah, the guy is good. He’ll see plenty of looks even with Finley there and there’s no reason to doubt a receiver who has put up three straight 1100 yard seasons and has finished in the top 12 three out of the last four seasons.

6. Hakeem Nicks – New York Giants

One of the best draft day steals of 2010, Hakeem Nicks exploded onto the scene and scored double digit touchdowns and quickly became Eli Manning’s favorite target. He was targeted nearly 10 times a game and with Steve Smith out indefinitely and gone to Philadelphia, Nicks could find even more looks in 2011, if he can stay healthy. He has already missed five games in his two seasons, and he will have to prove he doesn’t deserve the injury prone label. Draft with optimism.

7. Miles Austin – Dallas Cowboys

Miles Austin had bad luck. His main problem last season wasn’t just Tony Romo going down to injury, it was his inconsistency. He scored 6 points or less in half his games, including scoring two points or less in four of those. Tony Romo’s return will help his prospects, but now there is someone who can take his place as the #1 wideout in Dallas, Dez Bryant. Now targets have to be split between Austin, Bryant and Jason Witten. Bryant and Austin cannibalize each other and neither will reach their true fantasy potential as long as they are on the same team, but that does not mean they each can’t be productive. Austin is definitely the more conservative and sure bet of the two receivers. Expect his numbers to be closer to 2010 than his 2009 when he scored 11 TD on 1300 yards.

8. Vincent Jackson – San Diego Chargers

Jackson is a sure-fire bet to return to the top 10 after his forgettable 2010 in which he only caught a pass in four games. He’s a downfield threat as evidenced by his 17.2 career YPC. His QB, Philip Rivers, also happens to be the league’s best deep passer, so Jackson will make big plays this season. There’s no need to worry about any contract issues since he’s been franchised. Owners might forget how good this guy is. Don’t be that owner.

9. Mike Wallace – Pittsburgh Steelers

26 of Wallace’s 60 catches were from 20+ yards, and 10 were from 40+ yards. Both numbers led the NFL last season. He’s the league’s premiere downfield receiver and will benefit from having Ben Roethlisberger for a full season. Pittsburgh loves to throw it deep on second down to Wallace, as evidenced by his 7 TD and 23.6 YPC on second down. That means Pittsburgh is taking quite a few shots downfield throughout the game. Wallace is not a big red zone threat, but when his average touchdown catch was 41 yards, the red zone is of little importance. Wallace is a WR1, but not elite – yet.

10. DeSean Jackson – Philadlephia Eagles

Feast or fame is the theme with selecting Jackson. Of his 14 games played, eight produced games of less than 8 points (3, 2, 3, 5, 3, 8, 3, 1) and six produced games of more than 17 points (21, 22, 19, 19, 17, 28). If your league counts kick return/punt return TD, then Jackson’s 1 point performance against the Giants turns into 7. On a week-to-week basis, you just don’t know what you are going to get with Jackson; he can cost you a matchup, but he most certainly can win you one. He’s not for the faint of heart.

11. Reggie Wayne
12. Mike Williams (TB)
13. Dez Bryant
14. Marques Colston
15. Jeremy Maclin
16. Percy Harvin
17. Dwayne Bowe
18. Wes Welker
19. Chad Ochocinco
20. Brandon Lloyd
21. Steve Johnson
22. Austin Collie
23. Brandon Marshall
24. Santonio Holmes
25. Sidney Rice
26. Johnny Knox
27. Anquan Boldin
28. Mario Manningham
29. Kenny Britt
30. A.J. Green
31. Braylon Edwards
32. Pierre Garcon
33. Steve Smith (CAR)
34. Mike Williams (SEA)
35. Santana Moss
36. Plaxico Burress
37. Malcolm Floyd
38. Lance Moore
39. Julio Jones
40. Jerome Simpson
41. Jordy Nelson
42. James Jones
43. Mike Thomas
44. Deion Branch
45. Mike Sims-Walker
46. Robert Meachem
47. Steve Breaston
48. Arrelious Benn
49. Roy Williams
50. Jacoby Ford

Rankings and points based on a standard scoring system:
Pass TD = 4, 25 Pass Yards = 1, Rush/Rec TD = 6, 10 Rush/Rec Yards = 1. Fumbles lost and 2PT conversions are calculated in projections.

2011 Fantasy football coverage: QB | RB | WR | TE | Love/Loathe

1. Adrian Peterson – Minnesota Vikings

Reliability is the reason why AP is ranked over Arian Foster. Peterson has never finished as the #1 fantasy running back, but he has been in the top 5 for the past four seasons, and in a position where 65% of the top 10 scorers change from year-to-year, that consistency is invaluable. Donovan McNabb helps AP’s prospects more than Tarvaris Jackson would have, further increasing his value. Peterson is unchallenged in the backfield and has asked the Vikings coaching staff for more third down work. Minnesota should oblige. For these reasons, Adrian Peterson is the #1 overall fantasy player in 2011. Money in the bank.

2. Arian Foster – Houston Texans

The breakout star of 2010 crushed fantasy opponents to the tune of 20+ points per game, including four 30+ point performances. He’ll have to show that he can do it once again in 2011 and that uphill climb lands him at number two. The possibility that Ben Tate steals some carries from Foster is very real, and owners that select Foster should handcuff Tate. Foster will get plenty of catches out of the backfield in 2011 and that could propel him to #1 in PPR leagues. You just don’t know what you’re going to get with Foster, but owners expecting a repeat of 2010 will be sorely disappointed. A Peterson-esque 1300 yards and 10 TD is reasonable.

3. Chris Johnson – Tennessee Titans

Expectations for Chris Johnson in 2010 were unreasonably high after his 2000 yard season in ’09, and many have looked down unjustifiably on Johnson for his “paltry” 1300 yard, 11 TD season. However, he produced double digit touchdowns and hauled in 40+ catches for the second consecutive year. Expect more of the same in 2011. He is recovered from a thigh injury that bothered him the majority of the season but his holdout could affect his draft stock if it prolongs. Nonetheless, expect Johnson to be ready for the season opener and with Matt Hasselbeck under center, the Titans offense should be marginally improved from last year and that should be enough for the fastest man in the NFL to put up points.

4. Jamaal Charles – Kansas City Chiefs

The biggest detractor to Charles’ value last season was Thomas Jones, who stole 6 TD and carried the ball 15 more times. Just imagine the damage he could do if he received 300 carries like the other backs on this list. However, ’11 should start to see the transition of Charles becoming the lead back and the decline of Jones. He won’t repeat his absurd 6.4 YPC, but he’ll get over five yards a carry and 40+ catches. As long as Thomas Jones is in Kansas City, Charles’ value will never reach its true potential but he is most definitely worthy of a top five selection. With his homerun ability, he’s the best candidate for an Arian Foster-like breakout season.

5. Ray Rice – Baltimore Ravens

Rice at last is the main guy in the Baltimore backfield with Willis McGahee departing for Denver and Le’Ron McClain in KC. He should be the the goal-line back and with Vonta Leach leading the way, Rice will easily be able to set career highs in touches and touchdowns and has no excuses now. Still, it’s a little difficult to trust a player who didn’t score until Game 5 of the season and scored 14 points or less in 12 games. Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt for 2011.

6. Maurice Jones-Drew – Jacksonville Jaguars

Out of everyone in the top ten, Maurice Jones-Drew poses the greatest risk to potential owners. Injuries are slowly starting to pile up on MJD, and for a running back that is only 5’7″, durability questions suddenly become valid. His offseason meniscus surgery could affect him early as his knee injury did to him last season, but expect Jacksonville to handle Jones-Drew with care and give some carries to Rashad Jennings. MoJo is still worthy of first round pick, but it’s clear that he just physically cannot touch the ball 400+ times at his size. Draft with trepidation.

7. Rashard Mendenhall – Pittsburgh Steelers

Mendenhall is one of those players that no one particularly seeks to draft, but if he falls to an owner, they will gladly take him. He’s not exciting and doesn’t have the homerun ability of a Chris Johnson or Jamaal Charles, but he gets the job done and most importantly, scores touchdowns. Although he only had one 100+ yard rushing game after the return of Ben Roethlisberger, Mendenhall was fourth in the league in carries and there’s nothing to signify that his workload is set to decline. Select him, take his double digit touchdowns and 1200 yards and ask questions later.

8. LeSean McCoy – Philadelphia Eagles

Perhaps no one benefited more from the emergence of Michael Vick than LeSean McCoy. He led all running backs in targets and receptions (90-78), and as long as Vick is under center, McCoy will continue to pile up the catches. He wasn’t a goal-line back to begin with (his average TD run was 23 yards) and now that Ronnie Brown has joined the Eagles, Brown could potentially become the goal-line guy in Philadelphia. In standard leagues, McCoy is a late first, early second round pick, but in PPR leagues, McCoy’s value increases to a top five pick.

9. Michael Turner – Atlanta Falcons

Michael Turner’s end to the 2010 season was dismal. In Weeks 15-17, Turner averaged 3.3 YPC and totaled only 26 points, half of those points coming in Week 17. It is an ominous sign for 2011. Remember, Turner has carried the rock 888 times since joining the Falcons in 2008 and for a 29-year-old running back that has been nicked up throughout the years, his fantasy prospects will be limited. Combine that with the fact that Atlanta will likely shift more to the passing game with the addition of Julio Jones, and Michael Turner is no longer the rock solid first round pick he was previously.

10. LeGarrette Blount – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

LaGarrette Blount could be the running back steal of 2011. In only 13 games, he rushed for over 1000 yards at a 5.0 YPC clip in 2010. Three things make Blount stand out. First, he has the starting job in Tampa, a young, improving offense. Second, Cadillac Williams is now in St. Louis. Third, Blount is a 250 pound wrecking ball that is one of the hardest ballcarriers to bring down. He still has to work on his receiving skills and pass protection in order to be an every down back, but 2011 is the year Blount will catapult into the top 10. He’s a valued commodity in keeper and dynasty leagues, and is a high upside RB2.

11. Frank Gore
12. Steven Jackson
13. Felix Jones
14. Darren McFadden
15. Peyton Hillis
16. Matt Forte
17. DeAngelo Williams
18. Ahmad Bradshaw
19. Jonathan Stewart
20. Ryan Mathews
21. Knowshown Moreno
22. Ryan Grant
23. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
24. Jahvid Best
25. Cedric Benson
26. Daniel Thomas
27. Fred Jackson
28. James Starks
29. Beanie Wells
30. Joseph Addai
31. Shonn Greene
32. Ryan Williams
33. Mike Tolbert
34. Marshawn Lynch
35. Mark Ingram
36. Roy Helu
37. Brandon Jacobs
38. LaDainian Tomlinson
39. Reggie Bush
40. Montario Hardesty

Rankings and points based on a standard scoring system:
Pass TD = 4, 25 Pass Yards = 1, Rush/Rec TD = 6, 10 Rush/Rec Yards = 1. Fumbles lost and 2PT conversions are calculated in projections.

2011 Fantasy football coverage: QB | RB | WR | TE | Love/Loathe

1. Michael Vick – Philadelphia Eagles

The most dichotomous player in fantasy this year, Michael Vick has the potential to have a record-breaking fantasy season – if he can stay on the field for 16 games. The talk about defenses figuring out Vick is applicable to the real-life game, but not to the virtual game. Even when opposing defenses started to blitz and hit Vick more often, he still averaged 30 fantasy points per game in his last four games played, five more points than Aaron Rodgers averaged in his last four (discounting the Detroit game). Remember, the offense last year wasn’t designed for him; it was designed for Kevin Kolb. Now a full offseason of tailoring the playbook for Vick will only improve his numbers. Offenses adjust too. Look, Vick is more than likely to miss games due to his style of play, but I’d rather have Vick for 12 games and a backup quarterback for four than have Rodgers, Drew Brees or anyone else for 16. The reward far outweighs the risk.

2. Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers

Without Ryan Grant, the running game, and Jermichael Finley, Rodgers effectively carried the Green Bay offense all the way to the Super Bowl last season and proved that he is an elite fantasy quarterback despite throwing less attempts and yards since he became the starter in 2008. Now with Ryan Grant expected to return, Rodgers’ rushing numbers could take a small hit. Remember, Rodgers suffered two concussions last season that caused him to miss the most of two games and there’s no doubt the coaching staff will protect their MVP. He’s shown consistency the past three seasons and if you select him, you can bank on 4000 yards, 28 TD and 4 rushing scores.

3. Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints

Thanks to injuries to his running backs, Brees was relied upon more than ever last season. He ranked second in passing attempts while the Saints only ran on 37% of their offensive plays. Indeed, he had a lot of pressure on his shoulders and it could have played a part in his career high 22 interceptions. The volume of his attempts didn’t translate to big plays as his 7.02 YPA ranked 16th, behind Donovan McNabb and Jason Campbell. Now with Darren Sproles and Mark Ingram joining the backfield, the 28th ranked New Orleans running game should improve, taking the pressure off Brees and enabling him to make more downfield plays and pile up the points.

4. Tom Brady – New England Patriots

No Randy Moss? No problem. Brady rolled through the 2010 season and actually improved his points per game after Moss left from 17 to 19. With the addition of Chad Ochocinco, Brady’s yardage total should once again reach above 4000. His streak of nine straight multiple TD, zero interception games won’t be surpassed this season, but the unanimous MVP is a lock to end the season as a top-5 fantasy quarterback. Brady should be targeted in the second round in standard 10- and 12-team leagues and if he’s available in the third, take him. You won’t regret it.

5. Philip Rivers – San Diego Chargers

The NFL’s passing leader dominated secondaries in 2010 despite Antonio Gates shuffling in and out of the lineup and not having Vincent Jackson for most of the season. He’s as consistent as you can get: Three straight seasons of 28+ TD, 4000 yards, and 8.0+ YPA. Rivers is the league’s best deep passer and with Vincent Jackson in tow for a full season, there could be fireworks in San Diego. However, Rivers was sacked 38 times in 2010, third most in the NFL and that could be concerning to a fantasy owner moving forward. Currently going in the third round, Rivers is a reason for an owner to wait on selecting a quarterback.

6. Peyton Manning – Indianapolis Colts

Manning took owners on a roller coaster ride all season; he scored 19 points or less in ten out of sixteen games, including two single digit performances. In fact, his best performance was his 29 point Week 1. Now with news that Manning will likely not participate in training camp or even the preseason because of offseason neck surgery, potential owners should be wary. The offensive line still remains an issue and the running game does not inspire confidence. The return of Dallas Clark and Austin Collie will take the pressure off Manning, but 2011 could be the year that we start to see the decline of Peyton Manning. Don’t get me wrong. He’ll put up numbers, but this isn’t the Peyton Manning from 2004.

7. Tony Romo – Dallas Cowboys

A collarbone injury to Tony Romo shortened his 2010 season but he is fully healed and the Cowboys have removed the dead weight from the offense in the offseason. He has put up numbers but for a quarterback that doesn’t rely on his legs for fantasy points, he should be putting up numbers more akin to Tom Brady and Drew Brees with all the weapons he has at his disposal. Nonetheless, Romo could be had for great value as his injury could scare potential owners away. Expect 4000 yards and 25+ TD, and if he produces anything more, consider it a bonus. Draft him with confidence.

8. Josh Freeman – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Josh Freeman could reap the greatest reward relative to his draft position. He actually finished second in rushing yards by a quarterback and that should turn into a trend in 2011. Freeman didn’t reach paydirt on the ground last season, but he’ll find himself there multiple times in 2011. The Bucs are talented and young at the skill positions and expect his play to rise to another level as the season continues. He’s a fantasy stud in the making and extremely valuable in franchise and dynasty leagues.

9. Matt Schaub – Houston Texans

Matt Schaub owners were disappointed in 2010 when Arian Foster emerged to become fantasy’s #1 overall player. Schaub had six games where he threw for one TD, four where he didn’t throw one at all and scored over 20 points just four times the entire season. He’ll have to show he can become a dependable fantasy option once defenses start to key in on Arian Foster. Someone has to suffer a loss of value in Houston as long as Arian Foster is there, and it’s going to be Matt Schaub.

10. Ben Roethlisberger – Pittsburgh Steelers

Missing the first four games of the 2010 season caused Big Ben’s stock to drop, but savvy owners were able to select him at a discount. Although the offensive line is still leaky, Roethlisberger is as tough as they come and should figure to be in the lineup all season. Roethlisberger’s 8.2 YPA is a direct influence of Mike Wallace, but Pittsburgh will never become the offense that New Orleans, New England or Indianapolis is. It’s predicated on the running game and Pittsburgh ranked 8th in rush attempts. He’ll never be elite, but always serviceable if you want to wait on selecting your signal caller.

11. Matt Ryan
12. Eli Manning
13. Sam Bradford
14. Kevin Kolb
15. Kyle Orton
16. Joe Flacco
17. Matthew Stafford
18. Matt Cassel
19. Jay Cutler
20. Donovan McNabb
21. Jason Campbell
22. Mark Sanchez
23. Matt Hasselbeck
24. Ryan Fitzpatrick
25. Tarvaris Jackson
26. David Garrard
27. Alex Smith
28. Colt McCoy
29. Cam Newton
30. Tim Tebow

However, reaching the Finals is not enough to measure the success for this team; it must be measured in titles.The hype must become reality.

They dispatched the proud Celtics in only five games and took down the reigning MVP in five as well. LeBron James has elevated his play, but for him to truly become “King”, he must win it all and show he can do it on the biggest of stages. The last time James was in the Finals, he failed to win a game. A failure in the Finals will further emphasize that the fact LeBron cannot and will never measure up to the shadow of 23.

Chris Bosh will look to prove that he isn’t just the most expensive third option in NBA history. Unfortunately for him, he will have to guard one of the hottest players in this year’s playoffs.

In some ways, these Dallas Mavericks are the opposite of the flash and glamor the Heat represent. Dallas came into the season under the radar and with expectations of another 50+ win season that would end with another first round exit. The wily old veterans in Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion, and Peja Stojakovic have been given one more chance to finally secure that elusive championship. But perhaps no one needs to validate his career, his legacy, more than Dirk Nowitzki. Being labeled as a choke artist after the 2006 Finals and the 2007 first round playoffs where they lost to 8th-seeded Golden State, Nowitzki has turned it up to another level in this year’s playoffs. He has the opportunity to now right the “wrong” that happened in 2006.

Having periods of ups and downs through the season, Dallas became the popular choice for the most likely top seed to be defeated in the first round. They defeated the Trail Blazers, swept away the two-time defending champion Lakers in a three-point barrage, and took down the Association’s scoring champion in 5 games. Dallas came back from a 15+ point deficit with 5 minutes left to play against the Thunder, becoming the first time in such a situation to do so in 5,016 chances.

Perhaps they are a team of destiny. These Finals will be all about validation and legacy. The King’s coronation will have to wait at least one more year.

Prediction: Mavericks in 6
MVP: Dirk Nowitzki