No. 1: Money Transfer
This service allows people to send money to others using Short Message Service (SMS).
(SH: It’s not just money transfer it is also making payments which have been split below. The biggest opportunity is helping the third world save, budget, and achieve wealth goals. The mobile when you add banking to it becomes an explicit device for weath creation. It is much more than a wallet at that point even if the banking is all done via SMS)

No. 2: Location-Based Services
Location-based services (LBS) form part of context-aware services, a service that Gartner expects will be one of the most disruptive in the next few years. Gartner predicts that the LBS user base will grow globally from 96 million in 2009 to more than 526 million in 2012.
(SH: this is one I am nost interested in. Twitter is on the cusp of opening this space up. Real-Time Mobile Social Classified will be HUGE. It is the behavior changes that we have to begin understanding right now!)

No. 3: Mobile Search
The ultimate purpose of mobile search is to drive sales and marketing opportunities on the mobile phone.
(I don’t like this statement. May be great for the enterprise client but I don’t see it the same way. Yes mobile search is important. However I’d put the ability to share a link or pass on information as even more important. Or get information from people in your vicinity. Thus add in community, add in social. I don’t think we will spend our time googling unless we have agents in our pocket which will also filter what’s relevant. Now that’s an opportunity.

No. 4: Mobile Browsing
Mobile browsing is a widely available technology present on more than 60 percent of handsets shipped in 2009, a percentage Gartner expects to rise to approximately 80 percent in 2013.
(SH – well yes and any business that doesn’t have a mobile browsing strategy or an APP strategy will probably be missing the boat by 2013. Still, what I think this is about is.. it will be easier than ever to read and review things from a mobile device. By 2012 many top end devices will also have small projection capabilities and so the whole viewing experience will have many more options while on the move. People read email or SMS on crappy mobiles out of necessity. People use a Kindle on the iPhone or read the NYTimes because it fill a different need.)

No. 5: Mobile Health Monitoring
Mobile health monitoring is the use of IT and mobile telecommunications to monitor patients remotely, and could help governments, care delivery organizations (CDOs) and healthcare payers reduce costs related to chronic diseases and improve the quality of life of their patients.
(SH: Find it harder to comment here. Yes the opportunity is great. The Nokia Data Gathering project was one of the best pilots I’ve seen so far – outbreak prevention.)

No. 6: Mobile Payment
Gartner’s top 10 list because of the number of parties it affects — including mobile carriers, banks, merchants, device vendors, regulators and consumers —
(There are at least 3 banking areas listed here as next we have NFC. While there are many regulatory issues there is also plenty of discussion emerging around alternative money systems where “trust” is established in a different way. Mobile money will emerge with very low transaction costs in the end. This is certainly the area for some wildcard scenarios and thinking out of the box. Nothing will build a business faster than taking out the current costs and charges related to banking which are completely onerous for billions of people that remain unbanked as a result./

No. 7: Near Field Communication Services
Near field communication (NFC) allows contactless data transfer between compatible devices by placing them close to each other, within ten centimeters.
(I probably wouldn’t even place this on the list. The business argument for creating efficiencies and using the phone in this way are interesting but rollout could take years and years. I don’t see a compelling user benefit in this story other than I never need to get my wallet out. Then I could just as easily have an app for that etc. I suspect this is a hard sell and that is also why it won’t be in the US anytime soon.

No. 8: Mobile Advertising
Mobile advertising in all regions is continuing to grow through the economic downturn, driven by interest from advertisers in this new opportunity and by the increased use of smartphones and the wireless Internet.
(As I get down this list I am coming to understand it more. It’s not focused on me at all rather on businesses and how to get leverage. Businesses that apply an adversting model to mobile are in my view more likely to fail. Businesses that become more transparent, more helpful, more accessible, and more useful are likely to be incorporated into my notification systems. Yes we will have ads and they will be embraced in the third world where heck if you never had a TV then ads could even be fun and infomercials helpful)

No. 9: Mobile Instant Messaging
Price and usability problems have historically held back adoption of mobile instant messaging (IM), while commercial barriers and uncertain business models have precluded widespread carrier deployment and promotion. Mobile IM is on Gartner’s top 10 list because of latent user demand and market conditions that are conducive to its future adoption. It has a particular appeal to users in developing markets that may rely on mobile phones as their only connectivity device. Mobile IM presents an opportunity for mobile advertising and social networking, which have been built into some of the more advanced mobile IM clients.
(SH: The sad sad dimension is the price gauging that goes on particularly in the Western world and the pricing structure that continues to exist in the US. SMS is the ultimate way for carriers to participate in “signaling” users and for that matter filtering data on their behalf. Carriers can even give limited web access by using the SMS as a smart pipe enabling (sending) URL’s that are browseable even when the user doesn’t subscribe to a data plan (they can be invisible etc). It is the single smartest method to introduce the “internet experience” to non internet users. It’s the carrier plan to make users want more. It’s not hurt by WAP etc. It enables smart services. It can enable “slow downloads in the background” and a myriad of other opportunities. SMS is SMS. SmartSMS is a selected delivery channel for paid content.

No. 10: Mobile Music
Mobile music so far has been disappointing — except for ring tones and ring-back tones, which have turned into a multibillion-dollar service.
(SH: Yes entertainment is huge. Music and video is huge. Making money on mobile music… no way based on current pricing plans. Yet there are many other opportunities. Eg listening on music that is being played around you in the vicinity.

So these are all areas that I think are incredibly important that Gartner fails to identify. Ultimately they are going to matter.

1. Identity - My sense of identity is changing and my devices and how I manage access to me is changing. I may use numbers but increasingly it is my name or directory listing that matters. I don’t want to provide a stupid callerID. I want to augment my call setup with “Context” or even send context before connecting. A single identity is also no longer acceptable for me. I may expose myself differently at different times. This is another reason why we may not always want to use our mobile number as our payment or bank number. There will be a cash equivalent.

2. Directories There are too many who continue to focus on my “contacts” in my phone. My contacts long ago fragmented and are in different directory services which may or may not be integrated, insync, or related to details i have for them in my mobile contact list. Even search for a contact in the future may be different. Let me customize that to the identity/directory services that I use. The idea of a singular directory may be done. Even within these external directories we have groups and lists emerging. We also carry many more entries now that we ever used to. In fact the Lifestream will probably ultimately provide that most useful of functions. Recent Calls. When calls go into the lifestream recent calls will be redefined. Whether that is public or a private lifestream.

3. Signals I made comments re SMS above and anyone studying the Apple Notification service or APPs that are managing the service will see the opportunity. The notification service is my agent and filter and will become more sophisticated overtime. There are many new monetary models to be created around it. Plenty of wildcards and some certainties from my perspective. When you look at an iPhone today for all the different pings, and rings for one fully active with notifications, sms updates, email, calls ringing etc… the device can become quite a busy device. I will also want those notifications read to me… in my ear… And I will want voice response.

4. Voice: Why is it Gartner misses Voice? I find this one hard to believe. Voice to Text.. Text to Voice etc. Businesses need to understand that this is part of the same action. Don’t believe me then talk to the Voxeo guys.. that’s a team that gets it. Add in all the implications for customer service and call-back etc.

5. Knowledge Sharing and Social Networks: Won’t even bother to mention these here now… Mobile is changing these behaviors too. Faster than many think.

Okay, for now I’m done on this. Gartner said “Gartner listed applications based on their impact on consumers and industry players, considering revenue, loyalty, business model, consumer value and estimated market penetration.” They issued it as a press release. This is supposed to get them business and help their influence. The world is more complicated than  this 10 point list. My opinions are also just my opinions and not framed around any focal issue or decision that company X or Y might make. The trends are usually wrong and there still needs to be a lot more out of the box thinking to really succeed. Who do you go to for your mobile strategy? What approach are you taking? Start with the users and not the technology!

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• Apparently Nokia is dropping Symbian from N-Series by 2012 | feels like an unofficial announcement. Is it too slow??? N900's
  Also noted on PCWorld a Product Marketing Manager for Nokia appears to have let slip that 2012 is the last iteration of the N-Series based on Symbian. I'm frankly surprised it is going to take that long. Yes product cycles are longer than we think although the N900 should be followed up with at least a more effective touch only device and thinner etc much more quickly. IMHO. Consumers will quickly learn that the top end phones won't carry Symbian anymore. That suggests limited growth, little chance of real software upgrades etc. I like the direction Maemo is headed. I still want an N900 and I believe there's a positioning opportunity. Nokia's "job" is to bring the billion+ symbian phones and users into the computer age without ever having a PC. I think the cost of large screen touch devices is also going to drop far faster than expected based on a straight line plot.
  (tags: maemo nokia nseries symbian mobile n900)

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Still, while not charming, it is incredibly impressive. Outside China (where I still want to go) and outside our general western perspective we don’t think of building a city for millions in less than 10 years. Conceptually this is no longer a one-off experiment in India. There’s the potential to grow another 100 Gurgaons…. and it’s likely that over the next decade the speed with which these new emerging mega cities are created just accelerate.

Here’s a parallel observation. Some of the early buildings in Gurgaon are looking quite tired. In fact they suffer from some lapses in quality workmanship. However, just looking at some of the new malls, and business buildings I can say that the workforce is now much better, and more capable. While I’m told there are still millions of square feet of available space, the building appears to be continuing unabated. For part of my stay I was in another apartment in one of the older areas of Gurgaon. In fact not far from the Amsoft office I spent so  much time at. This community felt lived in, it didn’t feel like a new development. The local stores were mostly the same ones that had established themselves some years ago. Now they were thriving.

I also visited some new malls like the Ambience Mall (one over a kilometer long and up to six floors) and one that had been close to my old apartment. The latter had always focused at bringing in more of the traditional businesses. Eg the ladies and gents tailors. 3 years ago I expected it to be dead. Today despite it’s unusual floor design it appeared to be thriving now with a big Reliance superstore in the basement and all decked out for Diwali shoppers. Again, lived in and used.

Overall I was pleasantly surprised. Gurgaon is not yet even near perfect, neither is it my retirement target or a place I want to live 100% of my time. Yet another stint there would never scare me. In fact it remains awe inspiring.

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I’ve looked at everything from beauty products and health care to high and low tech products. I’m humbled by what I learned, what I still feel and awed by the energy that is creating India’s future. It’s not until you get to understand the real motivations of a society and see it in a total context that you can begin to have some affinity for it.

I have heard stories from farmers who have left their homes in their 40’s making their way to a city with a grown family. I’ve seen entrepreneurs (small one or maybe a few person businesses) coping with the poverty line. I’ve talked to students and parents whose focus on education I can really identify with although many have lost the same focus in the US.

In fact that may be the real “base” learning for me. When you have nothing, and I’m talking about families that may live on $100 – $150 per month, may well live in a joint family situation or simply have a 1bhk or one room and small kitchen and if lucky access to their own bathroom. You will hear things like… our last major purchase was a TV six years ago. These days there probably is an old TV around although it may well sit on the floor or some rickety shelf.

So if you are on the breadline what do you want? You probably want enough money to get through tomorrow, even better if you can see to next week. Money is almost everything. However your family is more and most of the poverty line breadwinners I’ve seen put them before self and often live their futures through their children’s dreams.

This is where I came away thinking about the huge divide and the motivational differences between the Indian family described above and my perceptions of the families I generally meet in my neighborhood.

Kids seem to always follow me everywhere, and always want me to take a picture of me with them. Look carefully you will see why I didn’t want to shake this lad’s hand.

In India, education for the child comes first. For years I’ve seen the pressure on learning English and getting into an English-medium school. This has not abated and in fact may well be becoming more influential (saw data in Indian papers that suggests this was true). I see parents seeing the only way they can move their family from small steps to progress to a “leap” is through their children. Equally I’ve seen kids who plan to rescue their families and help them with their security once they land the “leapfrog” job. By “leapfrog” I mean a role that is outside the educational or professional background of the family. Usually  this involves tech, computers etc. The kids will not cut free or forget their families when they succeed. The generational bond remains strong.

Add in to the mix the increasing proliferation of TV in India. You have a powerful mix. Increasingly high aspirations and knowing that education is the most likely road to success. We take this now too much for granted in the Western world. While I’m firmly in the camp of lifetime learning and creating opportunities where one can grow, many of those I met don’t have that luxury or even access. If you work 12+ hours a day at completing tasks where’s the time or the opportunity?

This group on the edge of the poverty line have a huge incentive to get ahead, to learn and adapt. And their Education represents the real fortune at the bottom of the pyramid. If not for dollars, certainly in terms of social and economic capital. The combination of mobility, broadband, internet, and social tools is still to be realized amongst this group and yet in my eyes offers a real opportunity to accelerate (network multiplier) the learning transformation already underway.

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So I’m a little confused by this Nokia Scenario or explanation perhaps of what their world will be like in 2015. Listen to it. Pause and reflect and then share your notes with me. (Afterwards you may have to read this post to broaden your perspective) I think this one was live (nokia one here)

First I don’t really buy it. I’m not even sure I want to be a part of it (which should be really concerning). This doesn’t stretch my thinking. I have almost all of these features today. I’m also very concerned by the description that suggests my cloud will be a Nokia cloud. I don’t want that from Nokia, Apple or anyone who may manage to sell me a handset (if I still need one!). I do expect that I’ll have a lot more “streaming” to my handset. I don’t think I’ll use my handset provider to determine what I want. Re time horizon the slight enhancements discussed should be mine well before 2011 kicks in. While the whole world might not have the broadband to make this available that’s fine. Fast n slow mean we will go at different rates and different solutions will emerge.

I’d encourage budding scenarist’s and strategists to never produce just one view of the future. People will say that is wrong. What we need is a set of “Life Challenges” for 2015. Some I might consider “Identity”, “Trading Information”, quasi-cash, real-time, bio-metrics and health, 3D commerce… who knows? I don’t have a focal issue. However if it was “the future of the mobile phone” the first thing we’d discover is it won’t be a mobile phone.

I originally read the above on Nokia Conversations and only then got pointed to Slashgear. Here’s a link to their post about contagious content which nicely sums up the problem for me. There are no plans to address this in the short-term. Yet in a few months it will be a reality and by this time next year there will be many apps that exist to handle it. The concern I have about the “solutions” approach is it doesn’t encourage an active developer community. The preferred future is one we encourage people to go towards and want. I see value in Contagious Content. The rest… well it will take more to motivate and achieve hundreds of millions in sales from this. Here’s another one on SymbianUI apparently not part of the roadmap but needed yesterday and certainly not in 2015.

If you bother to look at the  YouTube  comments they are generally negative.

Nokia in 2015 – The Way We Live Next | Nokia Conversations – The official Nokia Blog

A few snips: nokia data cloud – knowledge sharing – intelligence will make connections between data – jean francois – located to USA fm France. Keeps up with news, business stories, and keep in touch also with bank accounts. can see friends on screen when watching a match.  maria – barcelona student. meeting folks at parties – can touch screen and pull up friends pics. share data streams with boyfriend. Amar – fisherman – projects films at home that he download. tag locations of good catch – so other fishermen can see where it is. also can get weather reports. helps him earn data on fishing trips to a Univ in USA. pay into Nokia online account.

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I don’t think enough is really being written about this (Twitter and Geo Tweets). For the first time you will be able to easily associate some location information with a URL. For a tweet which is really an advert to the world you can now leave them in virtual space. When people get this it will become many times more powerful.

At eComm we saw Layar and they produced a demo which labeled pictures and 3D experiences and made available live via your camera phone. I think this may combine nicely with Twitter. We will want views that relate to those I follow… what have they said about this place. (Lists will make GPS data permissions even more effective). Who’s in the area etc.

In contrast to the mobile phone number and the complex things that put mobile phones on maps the Twitter model of being able to view slices of different data is much more compelling. While we may share some element of precisely where we are more importantly we can see quickly markers that others want us to see and some that will become more persistent overtime. Most important of all… rather than being flooded with photo’s we will have lots of “text” hints to view and perhaps filter more easily. I’m sure some will become classic location markers.

For fun… In India they seldom had maps and it remains the norm to get close to a place and then keep asking where it is… till you get there. As a system it works. I can imagine the same thing working re twitter and tweets. I also think some of these tweets will become valuable escalation points. Eg go to voice, video, to some other service. Either party may pay for this and a lot of it will be free too just as it is now in life.

I don’t even think we have begun to really understand the implications. Businesses are even further behind. How many have a “mobile location” strategy? Few have tweet strategies that are more than window dressing. I think we’re potentially all under estimating the disruptive nature of going from a numbers world to one of URL’s where each one is a potential different exchange. Information routing will change. This will change how businesses are forced to respond too.

Having come back from a half day at Singularity University yesterday it was easy to put my scenario hat back on. I believe that turning on GeoTweets is the type of discontinuity that may turn out to be as big as the web itself. Businesses have a maximum of 3 to 5 years to get this into their heads before other new entrants will upset them.

Jon seemed to concur with me when he responded later with “high utility, little investment of effort”.

That’s key. When anyone can associate or place an object in virtual space that is geo-located for “nothing” then everything changes. Don’t believe me then just think about what they will write over time on your street.

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• I must be able to export my status updates. (eg RSS), thus have the option to broadcast beyond my buddylist. (Note: even if I decided to move my updates to Skype and then forward to twitter or facebook etc unless I have more discretionary control in a way that is more valuable only a % will do it.)
• I must also be possible to direct a status updates – must relate to groups / lists. Some lists may be public and others semi-private. When updates are available to some friends and not others by the simple action of updating them then I have a simple format for being more directive.
• Status updates must include a geo-location opportunity. In days any discussion of status updates without this feature will be pointless. Geo-Location changes everything. Whether desktop or mobile location data will matter. If Skype adds list like functionality above it would also give Skype another way to say who I want to release this GEO information to.
• The Biggie! Skype must improve the escalation to a call capability. Social networks have reputation associated with them. Contacts isn’t enough. I should be able to see public Skeets.  Skype also doesn’t use a “Call Me” request (adds me as a contact instead). Skype should eliminate the “add as a contact” function and change that to a “call me” request. On acceptance it should ring the other party. Right now there is too much friction for going to calls outside one’s buddylist (most which contrary to phone logic only take calls from buddies). On Skype with a Skeet / Tweet type functionality that goes beyond the buddylist then you need a relatively friction free way to escalate those calls. You also need the reputation or other “filtering” to stop unwanted calls. Spam chat is already a big problem.
• This method also suggests that it should be possible to send @messages or their equivalent. Right now that is dependent on privacy settings. Yet if my @skeets are public then I am more likely to be legitimate than those I get currently along with 1000 others and have to block. So Skype needs to change the privacy capability to enable public chat betwee @skypers. A reputation system will also help that.
• This raises the issue of signals. Right now you get the signal when the Skyper logs back on. That’s why Skype is more broken that telephony. A call is often time specific and in fact many messages are too. Just like we like our twitter @messages to be timely (if you use it regularly) a better signaling system must exist for when I’m offline. Apple’s notification server is a good example of this. In fact if Skype solves that for the iPhone they may well be solving a much broader issue for all users.
• To make this more valuable I also have to have an API so I can manage these interactions from any client I want. Whether I manage it back to my desktop or some other service somewhere. The Twitterverse has proven that Skype’s locked in client development approach is not quick enough, and not appropriate for all people. We are no longer in a one-size fits all world. If Skype wants to win versus other social networks then it must give us more control than they do. The solution is to be both more open and more secure from my perspective as a user.
• So now I can get notifications from Skype and I can feed data into Twitter or otherwise I can respond to Skeets or Tweets on my own terms. The important thing is “notifications” on my mobile.
• Skype then has major advantages over Twitter. Eg a Skeet can escalate to a chat, or multichat or calls or conferences. With location… some chats are persistent… So now I may enter anyzone… as long as I’m in that zone and chat for example. Skype potentially does a better job of this quicker than Twitter can.

While I’m on Skype ranting and wishing they would really be innovative rather than turning out crappy window’s clients I also want these things…

• When I share my desktop I want to retain sharing my video link at the same time.
• I also want multi-party video. I see no technical reason for holding off on this – even if just to make it three way.Three way opens up an area of experimentation that most people have never experienced. Then let one person share another stream at the same time.
• Let me run my Skype client anywhere… on my own server etc. Let me interconnect it with SIP phones etc. Let me use it as my channel management tool.
• Reinforce that doing the above means that names rather than numbers matter. SO let me add a TwitterID and Facebook to my profile, let me decide via lists which profiles I want to expose. But as a culture stop thinking about the world as numbers for that is a blindspot that is abundantly clear. Make a world for me where you and anyone can call me by name! Make that part of your mantra!

BTW Skype and @niklas. I could Twitterize your client and create a mock-up in hours. I think that would be an awesome project. We’d also quickly take it way beyond what is outlined above. I also believe this would “SIMPLIFY” the current client and make it more accessible. As background since you have been out of the business see “Twitter and the Business Model 2009″ or “I am not a number! I am @stuarthenshall a Twittername. Oh and as Skype just exceeded 20m online my view isn’t that different to “Skype and 14m! – No big deal! from 2008.

The I don’t think I’m really prescient although I’ve been following and writing about Skype a long time. I once wrote: A Year Skyping and…. (Unbound Spiral) Sept 14th 2004: Oh dear… suggested to add Twitter like direction in 2004!

However Skype is in the real-time communications business, it’s an always-on company made possible by Skypers. Many Skypers would enable a Skype news feed as a tab in Skype. What may start of as a blog could become a very different community asset overtime.

From Brian McConnell of Gigaom:How Skype Can Quickly and Easily Become a Social Network (and Clean Facebook’s Clock)

Skype already has a great client for real-time communication: a social graph of people its users know and call. It’s available for every major platform, and given Skype’s popularity, there are a large number of people online at any one time. Each Skype client could serve a XML file with the user’s current status, media files, link feeds and so forth, and to obtain a real-time view of what’s happening with other users, it could call around to folks in a user’s Skype list to get the latest updates. Such a system could be highly decentralized, with most content served directly from one user to another, and largely self-hosted, which means the infrastructure costs would be much lower than a centrally run web service.

A true rant never really finishes does it.  Why VoIP Innovation Died with Skype (Unbound Spiral) Oct 1, 2007. Somethings one will always feel deeply about. Skype helped change my world making it completely interconnected and enabling conversations I never could have had otherwise. That’s not the only reason to use it and yet the knowledge still pulls at one’s heart strings. Skype remains more useful and more personal to me on a daily basis than Facebook or Twitter because it provides the escalation to voice conversations and I don’t have to exit the network and jump onto another to have that experience or convenience.

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