UNC Basketball Recruiting

New Commit: James McAdoo ('11)

2009-09-07T23:05:00.002-04:00

After attending the annual UNC alumni basketball game, rising junior PF James McAdoo has committed to play at Carolina.

McAdoo is a top five player in his class and is generally thought of as the best PF. Fundamentally sound in the post, McAdoo is comfortable playing with his back to the basket and even has a bit of a mid-range game. Not a flashy player, McAdoo can run in a transition offense, score down low, rebound and is a good shot blocker. Like most high school bigs, he'll need to bulk up a bit (he's currently listed at 6'9" 210), but with Carolina's terrific strength and conditioning program, he should be able to put on the muscle necessary to bang down low in the ACC.

Roy hasn't slowed down on the recruiting trail, and Harrison Barnes (a top three player in the class of '10) had a great visit to Chapel Hill for the alumni game as well. Here's who we've got for the '11-'12 season:

Seniors: Larry Drew, Justin Watts, Tyler Zeller, Ed Davis*

Juniors: Dexter Strickland, Leslie McDonald, David Wear, Travis Wear, John Henson*

Sophomores: Kendall Marshall, Reggie Bullock

Freshmen: P.J. Hairston, James McAdoo.

*Probably left for the NBA

This is a great team, even without Davis or Henson. Barnes would make it spectacular. Either way, between now and then we should have a couple more additions.

Big Wern

An Unlikely Post Player Predicament

2009-08-04T11:43:00.000-04:00

Recruiting, at all levels, goes in cycles. UNC is engaged in a phenomenal recruiting run right now with the recent signing of top flight wing PJ Hairston. But there is a gaping hole on the projected roster that isn't being directly addressed right now: the men who work in the paint. One reason is that talented top prospects fear (in many cases rightly) being overshadowed. In 2006, Kevin Love elected to go to UCLA and not Carolina for many reasons, but certainly two of them were Tyler Hansbrough and Brandan Wright. Many UNC fans and analysts saw the writing on the wall: there was a good chance Wright wouldn't stick around more than a season (and even Hansbrough could've left), leaving UNC with a limited post rotation for the 2007-2008 season. This was the year ace freshman Kevin Love would've likely put the Final Four bound Tar Heels over the top to winning a championship a year earlier.

For the upcoming 2009-2010 season, UNC possesses an “embarrassment of riches” in the post. Lotto pick Ed Davis has decided to stick around. Seven footer Tyler Zeller is a five star prospect who could easily become a top player if he remains uninjured this year. David and Travis Wear are top prospects on a roster so loaded they might only play spot minutes. And, the biggest prospect of them all, John Henson is ready to shine on the national scene. (note: Deon Thompson is not listed because he's a senior and won't scare off any recruits.)

So why am I writing an article about a dire need for post players? Early departures, of course. It's unlikely, but definitely possible, that Zeller, Davis, and Henson could all leave after just this coming season. UNC's magnificent temple of a post rotation would be reduced to ashes beneath David Stern's phony smile. And while this prospective disaster (or a lesser but significant number of departures) is very much a reality, the situation is tough to explain to a 17 year old high school athlete who is considering UNC.

Tar Heel fans could worry all they wanted about how Brandan Wright was going to leave early and stick UNC with lackluster post play for a season. But Kevin Love was not going to gamble millions on it, and probably rightly so. Love would've already been sharing time with Hansbrough, and if Wright had stayed he wouldn't have started. At UCLA he was guaranteed a starting position and instantly became one of the best and most prominent players in the nation, earning a high lottery selection in the loaded 2008 NBA draft. Not selecting North Carolina was the right choice, especially for a big man as focused on himself as Love.

Right now, Roy Williams and company are exploring the acquisition of a small forward/power forward combo for 2010-2011 to be played as a post player in the event of an emergency. Stud centers like Josh Smith are not interested in coming to Carolina, and he probably shouldn't be. But in my mind, there's no gamble on whether or not Ed Davis and John Henson will be around for the 2011-2012 season. They will be gone. And yet the UNC staff is not yet targeting big men because they know that kids see a logjam down low.

Let us be clear on this: there is no emergency. The possibility of a slight dip in quality post players brought on by overwhelming recent success is a “problem” that almost every school would welcome. But the Tar Heel staff is worried about it, because they know that the 2010-2011 season could be the next year to win it all. The timing will be right; the backcourt will be stabilized; the mix of new hotshot freshmen and super talented vets will be right; all the tools should be present to dominate the tournament again only two years after winning it all. But if no freshman post player can be secured, and the worst departure scenario becomes a reality, UNC may have another “disappointing” year like 2007-2008 where Thompson and Stepheson simply couldn't effectively back Hansbrough.

Yes, the title would come a year later. And if 2010-2011 is bogged down by an absence of a deep post rotation, there could still be another good opportunity in 2011-2012. But why take chances? Hopefully another big man who's not afraid of competition like Ed Davis can be located. If that can happen, Carolina fans could be celebrating as not just the National Champions once again, but being regarded as the undisputed top program in the NCAA. But until Terrance Jones or Harrison Barnes, two top prospects for 2010-2011, sign up UNC might have to wait just a little longer for unrivaled supremacy. As Roy would say, “dang it.”

Deon Thompson's Role as a Senior and a Leader

2009-07-27T12:59:00.001-04:00

Deon Thompson, now embarking upon his senior year at North Carolina, faces the stiffest competition for front court playing time since he became a Heel. Interestingly enough, this is also the year where Thompson has the opportunity to emerge from behind Hansbrough's ample shadow. Thompson will, at the very least, continue to be a starter for the foreseeable future. But will Thompson break out? Will he be again dwarfed by a returning lottery pick Ed Davis, a now bulked up seven foot Tyler Zeller, or a barrage of identical twins?

Thompson has not engaged in the consistent improvement that Tar Heel fans have come to expect. His points and rebounds per game have increased correspondingly with his increased playing time. But his offensive efficiency, rebounding, and turnovers have remained almost precisely the same. And these numbers are not mind blowing. In one area of need that should be correctable, free throw shooting, Thompson has languished at 65% from freshman to junior year.

Now it must be noted that Thompson has had to play second fiddle to Tyler Hansbrough for nearly his entire career. The only time Thompson was the first option was at the start of the 2008-2009 championship run when Hansbrough was injured. And during this time, his boosters will point out, Thompson did shine. He shot well, rebounded more intensely, and looked to be a player transformed. Unfortunately, I believe the prime factor behind this mini-breakout was the inferior competition faced at the beginning of the year.

Thompson has exploded against weaker front courts for his whole career at Carolina. Specifically, Thompson and then running mate Alex Stepheson posted impressive numbers in the first two rounds of the 2008 NCAA tournament against Arkansas and Mount Saint Mary's. These and similar cream puff games allowed Thompson to shine; but he has been, at best, inconsistent against the big boys in front of the bright lights.

But when it comes to Thompson's role in the upcoming year, the outlook is still promising in many ways. Roy Williams downplayed the hype for rising sophomore Ed Davis by pointing out that Davis had never yet been asked to “carry the load.” This comment, I believe, was made to praise Thompson for his role as a starter, tone setter, and leader and to deflate the accolades being lavished on Davis. Williams needs a confident, leadership oriented Deon Thompson to continue to start for his team. Another major factor in Thompson's favor is that experience matters. On a squad laden with freshmen and devoid of its previous core, Thompson will be implored to step up and lead his team.

Competing for time will be Ed Davis, who will surely start alongside Thompson. Tyler Zeller, whose vaunted three point shooting that went untested last year, could prove invaluable on a team with a lack of outside threats. David and Travis Wear, who many believe will see only spot minutes this season, could come on strong.

When summing these factors and trying to prognosticate about Thompson's future year, the last point in his favor will be Roy Williams himself. While clinging tenaciously to the traditions and philosophies laid down by Dean Smith, Williams will do Thompson the honor of continuing to promote him and feature him as a prominent senior at Carolina. Thompson will start, almost certainly all season long, and the spotlight will be his to lose. Similar to the situation with Marvin and Jawad Williams in 2004-2005, Thompson may not be the best front court player, but he will be treated that way as a reward for a having committed long and deeply to the team and for having forged a bond with his coach.

Roy, Please Turn Down this Top 50 Prospect!

2009-07-09T09:33:00.002-04:00

Marquis Rankin is a highly touted point guard out of Charlotte North Carolina. He loves the Tar Heels and appears to be ready to commit, according to recent news stories. A clear high major prospect, Rankin provides a single asset that makes a Roy Williams team excel: speed. The young man has jets the likes of Raymond Felton and Tywon Lawson. Does it seem like a “slam dunk” recruitment? The matter is actually murky; this is a unique and intriguing recruitment and possesses a host of positives and negatives.

Rankin is a rising junior this summer, meaning he would not join the squad until the 2011-2012 season. The most immediate problem that jumps out when evaluating roster projections for this season is not only the number of guards, but the number of point guards. This is UNC's projected roster for guards:

PG Larry Drew (senior)
PG Kendall Marshall (sophomore)

PG/SG Dexter Strickland (junior)

SG Justin Watts (senior)
SG Leslie McDonald (junior)
SG Reggie Bullock (sophomore)

The only way to accommodate Marquis Rankin in this lineup is to force Kendall Marshall (who is by all accounts a pure point guard) to the already overflowing shooting guard position. Another way to have Rankin on the team would be to not play him, which Roy Williams has not been known to do with top talent.

On the other side of this coin, however, Rankin would get to train his freshman year and make an impact his sophomore year after Larry Drew graduates. This provides stability the likes of which UNC will not be enjoy in the upcoming 2009-2010 season, which will have a weakened point guard position. Rankin would be a top talent waiting in the wings for his chance to contribute with little hope of shining as a freshman. Given that Rankin knows this and is (presumably) accepting of it speaks highly of his character.

And are these not the young men Roy Williams wants: a team player, patient, unselfish, who loves Carolina and wants to commit regardless of who he competes with for a spot? For most schools, if a top 50 player asks to come to your school, you say “yes.” But Roy Williams enjoys an embarrassment of riches at the moment, and the Rankin situation is still iffy for a couple more reasons.

Yes, Rankin is fast. He's fast the way UNC fans want their point guards to be fast. But his other skills and attributes are still works in progress. Rankin's shot is developing, but not there. His passing and decision making is on display, but not polished. This would be an early commitment (Roy Williams does not often accept kids who haven't completed their junior year), and Rankin is not as far along as the highly mature Kendall Marshall whose commitment Williams accepted last summer.

Which brings us to the final and most difficult piece of this puzzle: Rankin wants to commit soon. From recent interviews, he wishes to end his recruitment by the start of the school year. In response, Roy Williams is off spending time evaluating his during the brief coaches observation period in July, watching Rankin intently. So far, Rankin's performance has been mixed. If he truly insists on committing to a school in the next month, he might miss his chance at UNC – and at this time I think it's for the best.

Given the loaded roster, the questions about Rankin's abilities other (save quickness), and the short period for evaluation, Roy Williams should not offer Rankin a scholarship this summer. Turning down a top 50 player with the single attribute you covet most will be painful, and possibly regrettable, but it simply doesn't make sense at this point. The scholarship would be better reserved for a big man, who will be much needed after Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller, and John Henson go to the NBA early.

Ed Davis: On the Cusp of Greatness

2009-07-06T10:22:00.001-04:00

Communicating casually with Carolina fans, much of the anticipation about the upcoming season surrounds sophomore Ed Davis. Most other players on the team fall into two categories: the known performer and the unknown. Everyone knows exactly what to expect out of Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard, for example. While great players, their potential is more clearly understood and in both cases, I believe, nearly reached. The other major players on the team are freshmen with clouds of uncertainty surrounding them. But not Ed Davis – with Easy Ed, it feels like the sky's the limit right now.

Davis would've been a sure fire lottery pick in the recent NBA Draft, but elected to stay in school for at least one more year. Undoubtedly this decision (which he seemed to not even mull over) was strongly influenced by Davis' father Terry who played in the NBA for a long and solid career. Mr. Davis, looking at the big picture, knows that his son will be more successful on the next level, long term, by becoming a more finished product.

And what is there about this product that needs finishing? Most would point to an underdeveloped offense. In fact, in a recent Yahoo Sports article about next season, this was said about Davis, “He doesn’t have much of an offensive game yet, but that doesn’t matter to the NBA when it comes to big men.” I beg to differ. This is a knock that I've heard about Ed Davis ever since he stepped on campus last year. This is an example of someone being so spectacular that they're unfairly criticized in areas where they aren't dominant.

Davis' offense is not the best part of his game. Rebounding and defense are. But the trick is that Davis' rebounding and defense are exceptional, whereas his offense is merely very good. This is far different than claims that he lacks offense, or might not be able to develop an offense. Davis' array of scrappy put backs, hooks, and down and dirty post-ups are formidable. Statistically, Davis managed an offensive efficiency that ranked fifth on the best offensive squad in the nation. He beat out Deon Thompson by a small but significant margin (and this was Thompson's best offensive showing in his three years at UNC).

And Davis achieved this as a freshman! He shot 51% for the whole year but for just the post season, when he was unleashed, he shot a scintillating 58%. One of the main hindrances to Davis' offensive game is also one of the most fixable: poor free throw shooting. As a player who is going to be fouled in many instances, Davis and the coaching staff know that this is an area where he must improve and will surely be working on it all summer.

Roy Williams alluded to Davis never having had to “carry the load” in his summer press conference. The unpacked version of this statement is that Davis hasn't had to work under the mental and physical strain of being a “go-to” guy – the number one option on offense. Mentally it's challenging because people are counting on you. Physically it's demanding because the other team will have scouted you, will have picked you apart on tape, and will be ready for your moves. But there's one more quality about Davis that I believe hasn't been focused on: his fearlessness. Davis doesn't back down, or change his level of play, when he's outmatched. It was apparent in high school and it's apparent now in college that Davis plays a workhorse, determined style of basketball, and who doesn't rattle easily.

Everyone knows Ed Davis the rebounder, Ed Davis the shot blocker, and Ed Davis the defender. But when a little more polish, a little more versatility, and a little more free throw shooting is added to his game, everyone will know Ed Davis the superstar. With only slight and expected improvement to an already more than serviceable offensive game, Ed Davis will simply be one of the premier players in the nation.

The Point Guard Predicament

2009-06-29T11:58:00.001-04:00

The status of the point guard position remains one of the more intriguing aspects of the 2009-2010 North Carolina basketball season. Ty Lawson, Bobby Frasor, and Quentin Thomas have had virtually exclusive run at this position for the last five seasons, and now it's time for major overhaul. Larry Drew was brought along, somewhat, last season as the reserve point guard. But essentially this team will have an untested starter and likely even an untested backup at the point guard position.

Roy Williams recently addressed the situation with a typically vague (and at this point in the off season, appropriate) response that was summarized as such by Scout.com:

“While Williams noted that rising sophomore Larry Drew was the only “natural” point guard on the squad, he also indicated that [Marcus] Ginyard and incoming freshmen Leslie McDonald and Dexter Strickland will all see time at the 1-spot.”

Even looking at this assertion, it's unlikely that a system driven, consistent lineup type coach like Roy Williams would ever play four different players significant minutes at the point guard position throughout a season. I believe the best way to interpret this statement is that Williams was referring to the idea of primary and secondary ball handlers, lumping both the point guard and shooting guard positions as general “ball handling” positions. So Roy Williams was not asserting that Leslie McDonald (who grades out as a more natural shooting guard with potential to play small forward) would ever be on the court as the “primary” ball handler (in other words the point guard position).

The other surprising suggestion is that Ginyard could see time at the point guard spot. Like McDonald is projected, Ginyard has spent almost his entire career at either the shooting guard or small forward positions. He had one brief, six game stint in 2008 when Ty Lawson was hurt and Quentin Thomas was gimpy where he played point guard. Averaging 8.8 minutes as the lead guard, Ginyard (who was also not 100% healthy) managed only a .83 assist to turnover ratio. Clearly this was an awkward, unnatural, and unanticipated situation, and was the only time in Ginyard's career that he has played point guard.

Dexter Strickland, on the other hand, was recruited specifically to play some point guard at UNC. When Strickland first became a top priority for UNC, it was when Roy Williams witness his brilliant point guard play at the Peach Jam (a top high school basketball all star tournament) in the summer of 2007. In fact, a big part of Roy Williams' pitch to Strickland was that his best chance to play in the NBA would be at the point guard position. For the class of 2009, many other point guards (such as John Wall) would've welcomed being recruited by Carolina, but Williams knew that he already had his help at the point guard spot with Strickland.

A lot of this discussion stems from a lack of confidence in Larry Drew II to run a high octane North Carolina offense. UNC fans, however, shouldn't be too concerned about Drew's erratic play his freshman year. No one expects Drew to be the next Tywon Lawson, but history has shown that basketball teams can have great success without a superstar point guard. What really troubles fans is that Drew might have similar deficiencies to past backup point guard Quentin Thomas. Thomas was plagued by unreliability, a lack of offensive development, and questionable decision making. But a comparison of their statistics reveals that a freshman Drew was a good step ahead of a freshman Thomas.

Drew played more minutes than Thomas his freshman year, though both were in a nearly identical situation of backing up a superstar point guard on a quest for a title. Thomas could not be relied upon in the NCAA tournament and was benched. Drew played. Drew had a higher (though not impressive) offensive rating than Thomas. Their assist rates were equivalent, and Drew had a much better turnover rate than Thomas' abysmal, nearly unrealistic knack for turning the ball over.

Of one thing in this article we can be certain: Larry Drew II will play significant minutes at point guard and no other position this coming season. After that, I think the only logical choice (and the UNC coaching staff is logical!) is to play Strickland as the backup. McDonald, the Roy Williams press conference indication aside, we can rule out. So Ginyard and Strickland are the only other candidates. Ginyard, I feel, would be done a disservice if he were asked to play out of position for his final season. He is not a point guard, has never practiced as a point guard, and has only played as one during desperate times of mass injury.

Those in favor of Ginyard seeing time at the point guard spot point to the assets of leadership and experience he would bring to the table. These attributes, while true, are outweighed by the value in getting our young guards more time, in preparation for future success. Without question this is an entirely new Tar Heel squad. The success of the season is unlikely to be measured by NCAA tournament achievements. What matters most is building towards the future. Having Marcus Ginyard take valuable, in game training time away from the young guns in order to possibly win another game here or there is simply irrational.

Thus, I predict UNC fans will be treated to heavy doses of Drew as the starting point guard and Strickland as the backup, unless Drew proves shaky and Strickland takes over the starting spot. They will be inconsistent with flashes of brilliance, making for a highly dramatic and enjoyable reloading season.

Inside Scoop on Harrison Barnes

2009-06-23T11:35:00.002-04:00

The latest and greatest recruiting saga between Duke and UNC revolves around the consensus #1 player, overall, for the 2010 recruiting class: small forward Harrison Barnes. Our best source has provided some insider knowledge, of which as much as possible will be shared in this article. But first, a little info about Barnes should be laid out.

Harrison Barnes is known for his competitiveness, basketball IQ, leadership, and versatility. A lights out shooter and game changing scorer, Barnes is also committed to working hard on defense. He touts academics as vitally important in his school selection (and unlike most star high school basketball players, I am inclined to believe him). Though he has examined many universities and talked with all the top coaches, our source indicates that this has come down to a two horse race: Duke and Carolina.

For the longest time Barnes has been considered a Duke lean, or a Duke lock. The critical piece of evidence was when Barnes showed up at Cameron Indoor stadium for the last Duke/Carolina game. Not only did he attend the game, he sported a Duke t-shirt and allegedly “surprised” Coach Krzyzewski by not letting him know he was coming. All this, after the young man had been reluctant to show his hand to the media in any way.

On top of this smoking gun, others point to social evidence linking Barnes to Duke: he's teammates and friends with 2010 Duke commit Tyler Thornton, he plays an instrument and is generally studious, he stresses his academic future, he asserts he will not bolt for the NBA immediately.

So it's all over, right? Enter Roy Williams. Williams' first trip two days after winning the 2009 National Championship was Ames Iowa, to sit down with Harrison Barnes and his family. For the last several months, Williams (known for his relentless recruiting efforts) has made Barnes his number one priority. Though UNC is hot on other top small forward recruits CJ Leslie and Terrence Jones, neither sport a scholarship offer while Williams waits on Barnes.

Barnes is scheduled to visit Chapel Hill for the first time, attending the university basketball camp, followed by a general campus visit. Surely Williams will roll out the red carpet and pull out all the stops (it is rumored that he once served a player a meal at center court of the Dean Dome). Barnes, having not been on campus before, has the potential to be wowed by the experience. He will also be bringing at least his mother with him, and that brings us to the possible ace up Williams' sleeve.

Harrison's mother, Shirley Barnes, is a major player in his recruitment. The word from our source is that Mrs. Barnes was not impressed with the way the Duke players folded while playing UNC in that fateful game where everyone assumed Barnes would commit any day to the Blue Devils. She observed that the Carolina players stuck together and, above all, seemed to be enjoying themselves. The Duke players, on the other hand, hung their heads while Krzyzewski chewed them out viciously during a timeout. Reportedly Mrs. Barnes was also not enamored with the Cameron Crazies and the atmosphere they create.

Mrs. Barnes has been in contact with the recruiting staff at UNC and is apparently showing a great deal of interest. The Barnes family is intelligent and thorough, meaning the decision to go to either Duke or UNC will less likely be made based on emotions or goodwill toward individuals. The decision will be made based on what is best for Barnes.

Furthermore, our source says that Barnes wishes to graduate in three years and that the Duke coaching staff has assured him that will happen at their university. Roy Williams, not known for making promises to recruits, has not made the same offer as of yet. As far as academics, however, Barnes insists that he wants to go into business. UNC offers one of the top undergraduate business schools in the country. Duke does not have an undergraduate business program, though Barnes has recently stated that economics could work as well (a program that is offered at Duke). The undergraduate business school would seem to be a mark in UNC's favor.

There is no question, however, that Duke holds a strong position. Barnes will “stop by” in Durham after visiting Chapel Hill this week. Many interpret this as a dagger in the Tar Heels' hopes. It is possible, however, that the stop by is just a gesture towards the coaching staff that has been in contact with Barnes for so long. But one thing is clear: Roy Williams hasn't given up, and his link with Barnes' mother could prove decisive.

Our source was even optimistic about the recruitment, saying that if they had to make a call, they believe Barnes will be a Tar Heel.

Dex

2009-06-21T18:22:00.005-04:00

Many people are worried about the point guard situation at Carolina for next year. We were spoiled last year with Tywon Lawson, and it was not necessary for Larry Drew II to play more than 10 minutes per game. Other than LDII the only person who has logged any minutes at the point is Marcus Ginyard, who only filled in briefly when we were absolutely ravaged with injuries two years ago. While Ginyard did an admirable job stepping up, his presence is needed much more on the wing (especially on defense, where he needs to guard our opponent's best wing player). Even with an All-American like Lawson, a team needs more than one point guard.

So who will bring up the ball for UNC next year when Drew needs his rest? The stellar recruiting class has no pure point guard this year (we do, however, have Kendall Marshall coming in next year). There is a "combo" guard by the name of Dexter Strickland, who has had quite an interesting high school career.

For Dexter's freshman and sophomore years, Corey Fisher (now playing at Villanova) was the point guard for St. Patrick High School in Elizabeth NJ, so Dex was left to play shooting guard. During those first two years, Dexter developed his shot and a reputation as a scorer. Not only could he shoot, but he was a slasher, able put the ball on the floor and get to the basket. A lot of times, shooting guards are like wide receivers, head cases who worry too much about how much they get the ball and what kinds of numbers they're putting up. Not Dexter. While he was not the focus of his team (laden with upperclassmen), Dex did whatever he could to win. He got a lot of rebounds for a guard and willingly took a smaller role to help the team. So many people have commented that his maturity goes well beyond his years. Although many teams showed interest (most notably Florida and Michigan State), Dexter claimed UNC as his dream school.

Dexter's father is 6'4" and his mother is 5'11", so he knew that he would never grow big enough to be a shooting guard in the NBA (he's currently listed at 6'3"). So the summer after his sophomore year, Dexter decided to develop his point guard skills. He went to the Steve Nash and LeBron camps to learn about playing point, and demonstrated his skills at the Peach Jam in the summer of '07. At this point, Roy Williams really started recruiting Strickland. Mrs. Strickland, like all mothers, it seems, loved Roy, which always helps in our recruiting. That summer, Roy decided to talk with Strickland about his role on the Tar Heels, were he to decide on attending college in Chapel Hill. Roy told Strickland that he would definitely play some point guard were he to come to Carolina. Certainly seeing how point guards like Raymond Felton, Jacque Vaughn, and Kirk Hinrich (who was actually a combo guard) developed under Roy had to make Dexter feel good about his recruitment. At this point, Dexter was thought of as the best point guard in his class and a top 10 player overall.

During his junior year, Dexter finally came down South to visit the campus. This was no ordinary visit. Dexter decided that he wanted his entire family to come down with him, so they rented an RV and came down as a family. They took in a football game, and obviously enjoyed their stay. Roy continued to court Strickland, feeling his playing style would fit in perfectly with his system. In fact, Dexter kept in touch with two of his close friends, Dominic Cheek and Kendall Marshall, and probably ended up helping Roy in his recruiting efforts (while Cheek ended up at Villanova, Marshall will be at Carolina in the fall of 2010).

This recruiting class is thought of as a top three class for this year (some still contend it is the best). So why is John Henson thought of as on another level of player than Dexter and everyone else? It started in the summer after Dexter's junior year. Strickland decided to forgo AAU play that summer and focus on increasing his point guard skills at camps and in his own workouts. Unfortunately, he hurt his hamstring at the beginning of the summer. While he could not work his body very much, he worked on the mental aspects of the game. The injury, combined with a lower exposure due to his absence at AAU, lowered his national rankings. He was still thought of as a top recruit, but he was not longer being called the best point guard in his class (you may have heard of a fellow named John Wall who has now claimed that distinction). In fact, many recruiting services began to categorize him as a shooting guard.

During his senior year, Dexter missed a few games due to the injury and recently recovered from a knee surgery. Last year, Dex worked on his defense, being part of a team, and really prides himself on his leadership ability. These are three things we love hearing about our recruits, especially the last one. Luckily, Marcus Ginyard, a guy who has shown immense leadership in his time at Carolina, will be back to help give this young team focus. Hopefully, he can help Dexter transition into the team leader role for his sophomore year.

Next year, Strickland's role on the team will be that of a "combo" guard. While Dexter will relieve LDII while he rests, there will definitely be time where Drew and Strickland will be on the court at the same time. Dexter seems to be back in good condition after his injuries and his slip in the ranking may have been a bit too far. Since he was not on the AAU circuit for a summer, he may have been a bit out of sight, out of mind for the people who come up with the high school rankings. Luckily for us, Dexter's skills could end up surprising unprepared opponents next year.

But we know better.

Big Wern

The Wear Twins: Lost in the Shuffle?

2009-06-12T11:44:00.002-04:00

David and Travis Wear, identical twin brothers, are highly touted recruits that will join the UNC roster this coming season. The 6'10" versatile big men bros turned down offers from UCLA, Stanford, and Arizona to sign with the Tarheels. They're elite prospects. And yet when it's time for Late Night with Roy in October 2009 it's possible the Wear Twins might not even start in the Blue and White game – meaning they're likely past spot #10 in the depth chart.

UNC's team next year features these talented post players:

Deon Thompson (Sr)
Ed Davis (So)
Tyler Zeller (So)
John Henson (Fr)
David Wear (Fr)
Travis Wear (Fr)

Davis and Thompson have earned their starting spots and not many would argue this point. Zeller will be a year ahead and brings a unique and specific skillset to the game – the most important being three point shooting, which UNC will lack next year. If Henson is the phenom he's being hyped to be, he'll certainly steal plenty of time from the post (even if he can play some college small forward, which is no guarantee) and be ahead of the Wears.

Originally there was talk that David and Travis could play small forward in college. This possibility has been put to bed. They were recently quoted as saying, in summary, that they are aware their future will be spent in the paint. Their senior year was spent bulking up and honing their back to the basket moves. This, however, turns into one of the few angles that work in their favor.

The Wear brothers' dedication to size and strength makes them more physically imposing than Henson, Zeller, and maybe even Deon Thompson. UNC has relied on the bulldozer known as Tyler Hansbrough for the last four years, and even the powerful Ed Davis won't be able to replace all that muscle. Their sheer bulk and beef may earn minutes. Another factor working in their favor is that Roy Williams will almost certainly return to the super fast paced, rapid fire substitution pattern that he employed the last time he had way too many players.

This last point brings us to the greatest hope and salvation for the twins: Roy Williams develops players and doesn't let anyone of promise rot on the bench. With the certain departure of Deon Thompson, and the likely departure of Ed Davis, and the possible departure of Tyler Zeller, UNC will need to season the Wears as much as possible their freshmen years. This means early in the season they will see the court, I would argue even a few minutes in both halves. In close games, they're likely out. At the end of the season, they're likely out. But for every other possible opportunity Williams will play them, even at points where fans will groan.

But if this coming season is more about building towards the future than winning another title (which, though possible, would take quite an alignment of the stars), David and Travis Wear must gain experience. It won't be much, and it certainly will be less than the two Top 50 recruits would get almost anywhere else in the nation, but it will be something.

Brandan Wright's Lasting Impact on Carolina

2009-06-12T11:04:00.003-04:00

The 6'10" athletic freak with a 7'3" wingspan left the University of North Carolina after just one season. The merits (and demerits) of these “one and done” type players is a source of consistent debate. Reflecting upon Wright's tenure at UNC brings back memories of the almost-was, the close-to, and the might've-been. UNC was a shot from the Final Four – as well as a shot from not finishing first in the ACC. An exciting, dynamic, and intriguing player, Wright's presence was always felt.

Wright was an extremely potent performer for his sole year: ACC tournament MVP, 65% field goal percentage, and some the best pre-Ed Davis shot blocking UNC had seen in years. The team finished first in the ACC regular season (albeit tied with Virginia and posting an unsatisfying 11-5 conference record), won the ACC Tournament, and flamed out in the Elite 8 of the NCAA's. This last point, the NCAA tournament performance, is a source of much pain and suffering for Tar Heel fans. The embarrassing meltdown against Georgetown, combined with being a hair's breadth from a return to the Final Four, makes this one of the most devastating losses in UNC history. Some people look at that one game and decide the season was a failure. While a bit extreme and negative, it can't be denied that in the eyes of the media and the history books, Final Fours and National Championships are remembered and everything else is just another loss.

Had Wright been an instrumental part in earning UNC that Final Four there would be no question his stint at UNC was of major benefit (see Williams, Marvin). However, given that it didn't happen, other criteria must be judged to evaluate Wright's footprint.

The year after Wright's departure, the 2007-2008 season, saw UNC clearly struggle in the post. Did Wright scare away potential big men from joining the 07-08 roster? Almost certainly. Kevin Love turned down UNC at the last minute and potential playing time must've been a factor. Roy Williams didn't really recruit anyone else (11th hour attempts to woo Patrick Patterson and others didn't come close) until after Wright left.

With no one to replace Wright, Danny Green was asked to step in at the Power Forward position during crucial stretches. Deon Thompson was inconsistent offensively and Alex Stepheson wasn't even an option on the offensive end. Coach Williams being forced to use Green more and more was clear evidence that there was a deficiency. Would Thompson and Stepheson have been more productive players if Wright hadn't sucked up a great deal of playing time the year before? The question is likely yes, although no amount of extra PT would've brought either player to Wright's level. Still, the offensively explosive Deon Thompson that showed up in the 2008-2009 Championship run would've been that much closer to fruition had Wright not have been there.

Now, all is well in Tar Heel land: a Championship has been delivered and the bench is so loaded with post players it's comical. Wright didn't drag UNC down, nor did he elevate UNC to great heights. His time in Chapel Hill was positive for him individually: he was a lottery pick in the 2007 NBA Draft. For the team, he delivered minor (by Carolina standards) achievements for one year and disrupted the post rotation for the following year. Do the positives outweigh the negatives? That's too subjective a point to explore in the scope of this article.

However, an important conclusion can still be drawn based on this examination of Wright's career. Taking on potentially “one and done” type players is a positive gamble. Wright's period at UNC didn't work out perfectly, but in the long run the negatives were minimal and the potential positives were just out of reach. With one shot changed in the Georgetown game, Wright would've gotten a Final Four (and possibly a National Championship). Had Wright returned for a sophomore season, UNC would've had a similar chance at a Championship that they had this last title winning season.

Will Wright be remembered? Only by the most die hard Tar Heels. But he was so very, very close to collegiate greatness.

Strickland Recovering from Knee Surgery

2009-06-09T15:12:00.000-04:00

Star combo guard recruit Dexter Strickland underwent knee surgery a month ago and is now reportedly back to 100%. The knee was scoped for a meniscus tear and fixed successfully. The injury, surgery, and recovery coming to light gives Tarheel fans a source of relief. The reason? Strickland‘s ranking, at one time the #1 ranked PG by several recruiting services, had taken a huge hit in the last season. But now everyone knows for certain what many suspected: Strickland was hampered by a nagging injury, causing him to not be his usual explosive, aggressive self.

Strickland is arguably the top recruit for UNC’s upcoming season. Now, many would instantly point to John Henson and say I’m a fool for writing that sentence. Here are my points, in brief: Henson is ranked highly due to his potential. Strickland, pre-injury, was ranked higher than Henson. Finally, Strickland’s position and skillset are far more needed on the team this year.

UNC is in dire need of ball handling and backcourt excellence after the early departures of Wayne Ellington and Tywon Lawson. Larry Drew will start at point guard, but he won’t play 40 minutes. The rest of the time will be filled by Strickland, who will play either exclusively at the PG position or share some time at SG depending on how good Leslie McDonald is. If Drew continues to be shaky, Strickland will absorb more and more of his playing time as the year goes on. He could possibly start midway through the season.

What does he bring to the table? Extreme athleticism. A positive attitude and work ethic. Height, strength, and ball handling. Everyone agrees he can jump out of the gym, take a game over, and be a leader. His greatest areas of need appear to be adding consistency to his jumpshot, decision making, and general point guard training.

Because of a sag in the rankings (due to injury) and the rise of Henson, Strickland comes in to the coming season undeservingly unheralded. Fans are going to get to know Strickland soon enough, though. And his performance next year may prove to determine how much success UNC attains in this reloading season.

Draft Measurements (Part 2)

2009-06-03T07:14:00.004-04:00

The rest of the draft measurements have been released, including body fat, standing vertical, running vertical, 185 pound bench press, and some agility and quickness drills. Although there are plenty of players to pick on, and plenty of statistical surprises to exaggerate, I don’t want to suggest that these numbers have a lot of weight behind them in terms of ordering the prospects. They are merely some numbers that may or may not have any implications on the court when the cameras are rolling. While some correlations are too obvious to ignore, many of these stats could probably be chalked up to an off day.

What Stood Out?

James Johnson did show that a portion of his heavy weight (257) is coming from extra fat, as he ranked 3rd highest with a body fat percentage of 12%.

Wayne Ellington tested out to be very bouncy and strong. His max vertical of 38” and respectable 13 bench reps show that his physique may have more potential.

Greivis Vasquez did not test well, not in anything. Not jumping high, not benching well (1 rep), and not showing much speed. His stock goes down after this.

Two guys that have shored up their top 5 picks - Hill and Harden. Hill showed off enough jumping ability to compete with those NBA 7-footers who may have a few inches on him. Particularly explosive off 2 feet, he will be able to challenge the basket high above the rim in the league. Harden has tested well across the board on both days, showing size (222), athleticism (37" vertical), strength (17 reps) and letting no chinks in his armor show. By the time the 5th pick is made, they might both be gone.

Gerald Henderson showed a great commitment to conditioning with the lowest body fat percentage at 4.4%. Surprisingly, he seemed flat in benching only 8 reps.The big surprise of the day for me was that Ellington graded out over Henderson in many categories.

Blake Griffin redeemed himself with gaudy numbers in the bench (22) agility (10.95) and standing vertical (32"), showing a special explosion off 2 feet. Like Lawson, his compact shape and shorter arms are not a complete hindrance as they likely aid in his missile-esque package of power.

Austin Daye and Taj Gibson were found toward the back of the list in most categories, showing that despite their great length, they might be a touch flat off the ground and a step slow.

Draft Measurements (Part 1)

2009-05-30T03:42:00.007-04:00

Guest Post by Gutty

Some initial 2009 draft measurements have been released. Before you take a look at who and what stood out, take this 5-question quiz and see how much (you think) you know...

Quiz

Hint - To see the answer, highlight the white, hidden text

1) Who is Taller, Blake Griffin or Tyler Hansbrough?

Answer: Griffin's 6' 8.5" height is .25" more than Hansbrough's 6' 8.25" height.

2) Who Has the Greater Wingspan, Griffin or Hanbrough?

Answer: Hansbrough's 6' 11.5" wingspan is .25" more than Griffin's 6' 11.25" wingspan.

3) Who is Taller, Danny Green or Dejuan Blair?

Answer: Both players measure 6' 5.25" without shoes. Similarities end there though, as Blair has 4 inches of wingspan, and 69 pounds on Danny.

4) Although both players measure at 6' 4" without shoes, who weighs more - Tyreke Evans or Gerald Henderson?

Answer: Tyreke Evans, at 221 pounds over Hendo's 215 pounds.

5) Does anyone have a shorter wingspan than Tywon Lawson?

Answer: Nobody at these mesaurements did. Lawson finished dead last with an inch to spare, with a wingspan of 6' 0.75"

So What Jumps Out?

Taj Gibson's 7' 4" wingspan definitely stands out and improves his draft stock.

Wayne Ellington's stock is hurt by his underwhelming wingspan measurement of 6' 6.5". This will hinder him on defense.

Danny Green's stock is boosted by his wingspan measurement of 6' 10".

Dejuan Blair and Jeff Adrien have incredible wingspans at 7' 2", but dissapointing heights at 6' 5.25".

James Johnson weighs 257 pounds and a has very good wingspan of 7 feet plus. If that 257 pounds is muscle and not fat, his stock goes up into the late lottery.

Jeff Teague is short at 6' .025" without shoes, and twiggy at 175 pounds. His stock goes down into the 20s.

As mentioned in the quiz above and cruel linkbait tweet, Lawson has amazingly stubby arms and measures a diminutive 5' 11" plus without shoes. His stock goes down from the lottery to the mid-1st round.

BJ Mullins has the height of a lottery pick at 6' 11.75" without shoes. However, his lackluster skills drop him to mid-1st round.

Austin Daye is 6' 9.75" and 192 pounds? Can he body up NBA SFs and does he have any back-to-the-basket game? Tough call with this kid. He will probably get drafted in the mid-1st.

Jodie Meeks, at 6' 3" without shoes, is too short to play the SG in the NBA. He'll be back at Kentucky to improve his ballhandling for his future position as transplanted PG in the league.

More to come when the rest of the measurements are released...

NBA Draft Pt. 2

2009-05-22T00:13:00.010-04:00

So the lottery happened on Tuesday and the draft order is set. If you didn't hear, the Los Angeles Clippers won (which really means Blake Griffin lost) and get the number one overall pick. The Memphis Grizzlies get the second pick and the OK City Thunder get the third. After that the picks go in reverse order of how the teams finished in the regular season. Now the order is set and I'll put out three possible scenarios for where out seniors could end up.

Tyler Hansbrough

While Tyler is one of the greatest and most decorated Tar Heels of all time, his skills and body type will preclude him from being a superstar on the next level. Hansbrough really excelled in a back-to-the-basket power forward/center role at Carolina. The problem is, the power forwards and centers in the NBA are much taller than Tyler. This matters because Tyler often had trouble playing against opponents that had a height advantage over him. Luckily, Tyler worked on his face up game the last couple of years, developed a bit of range and tried to work on his handles a bit. He really lacks the speed and driving ability to play small forward in the League, but he should be a serviceable, albeit undersized, power forward. Due to his lack of size, Hansbrough will not be a lottery pick, but his hard-work and stellar college career should keep him in the first round.

Detroit Pistons (15th pick): Only a few years ago, the Pistons were the elite team in the East. They won a championship with a group of players that rarely made Sports Center's top plays, but played smart team basketball and good defense. Chauncey Billups transformed from a shoot-first point guard to a team player, Tayshaun Prince was a lock down perimeter defender, Rip Hamilton was a lights out shooter and 'Sheed was, well, 'Sheed. How things have changed. Larry Brown is no longer the coach, and they do things like trade Billups for Allen Iverson. Now, Iverson, after sitting out the end of the season with an "injury" is gone, 'Sheed wants more money than the Pistons can offer, and power forward Antonio McDyess's contract expires this year. This used to be a franchise that valued all of the things that make Tyler great, i.e. a hard working, blue-collared, team player. This is about as high as Tyler could go, but is Detroit GM Joe Dumars still capable of finding those diamond-in-the-rough players like Hansbrough in the draft? I kind of hope not, because I'd like Tyler to go to a team that is moving up, not crashing down, the the NBA heirarchy.

Utah Jazz (20th pick): The Utah Jazz are always good, but rarely great. They peaked during the Malone/Stockton years, but unfortunately for them, there was a fellow named Michael Jordan that stopped them from ever willing a title. The Jazz currently have Paul Milsap and Carlos Boozer playing PF (Boozer also plays center if Mehmet Okur is out). Milsap is a restricted free agent, Boozer is an unrestricted free agent, and Okur has an early termination option for the upcoming season. Boozer excelled at center for the Jazz at 6'9", so coach Jerry Sloan knows how to get a lot out of an undersized guy. With the emergence of Milsap as an solid power forward whose potential has not yet been reached, conventional wisdom says that the Jazz will keep him on and not resign the much more expensive Boozer. If you saw the look on Sloan's face after the Jazz were eliminated from the playoffs this year, you'd see a man that looks tired. He's coached the same team for 21 seasons, in a league where the over/under for a newly hired coach's tenure seems to be set at around 50 games. Tyler's style would fit in well as Milsap's backup. This would be a team that will continue to be good, and has the possibility to become a title contender down the road with Deron Williams at the point.

Oklahoma City Thunder (25th pick): It's a shame that the city of Seattle lost this team, especially just before their rebuilding efforts took off. While the Thunder haven't become a playoff team yet, they will be soon. GM Sam Presti has done a great job in the draft building a foundation that should make this team scary in a couple of years. Luckily for the Thunder, two years ago, the Trail Blazers chose senior citizen Greg Oden, leaving Durant ripe for the picking. At the time, there was a great debate over who should be taken first, and just two years later, the answer seems obvious. Durant will be a superstar while Oden has serious Sam Bowie potential. The Thunder now have a foundation they can build around with Durant, power forward Jeff Green and guard Russell Westbrook. Currently, an aging Malik Rose backs up Green, and Hansbrough could potentially take his place. This is a really fun team to watch and I feel that it could be a great place for Tyler to land.

Danny Green

While at UNC, Danny Green became kind of a jack of all trades. When NBA teams are looking to draft, they generally want a player that can do one thing really well. I think Danny can be a bench player in the NBA, but he doesn't really have the skills to be a starter. He's listed as 6'6", but colleges usually exaggerate these numbers, so he's probably more like 6'5" or 6'4". This presents him with a similar situation to Tyler, he's not quite big enough to play his college position in the pros. Danny played small forward and even power forward occasionally (more last year than this year), but in the NBA he's built to be a small forward or shooting guard. I think that as long as Danny can get on a team, he should be able to prove himself as a useful player. I think he is better prepared mentally than Reyshawn Terry, and has a better skill set than David Noel, two recent second round picks (where I think Danny will be drafted) that came out of UNC.

Washington Wizards (33rd pick): The Wizards have three stars, Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antawn Jamison. The problem is, Arenas is constantly injured and Jamison isn't getting any younger. This should have been a playoff team, particularly in the East, but injuries have really hurt them. In addition to Arenas, Butler was injured for a short time and center Brendan Haywood missed virtually the entire season. Basically, the Wizards are in trouble. They just got a new coach and the organization is not well run. Right now, they have Nick Young starting at shooting guard and don't really have a backup, which means they may take a look at Green. They're pretty strong at small forward (with Andray Blatche backing him up), so they'd probably look at Danny as a guard. This may be a bit early for Danny to be picked, but the Wizards seem to like Tar Heels (Jamison and Haywood) and could really use help in the backcourt with their injury prone point guard.

Los Angeles Lakers (42nd pick): As much as I dislike the Lakers, Danny could fit in here and this is a team that should continue to be a power in the West. The Laker's real problem is their point guards. The player formerly known as Derek Fisher is getting old fast and, while he showed promise his first couple of years, Jordan Farmar seemed to regress this year. Small forward is also a problem for the Lakers. Trevor Ariza, a free agent next year, has had a few great plays in the playoff and I could easily see a team overpaying for him (I watched him in the regular season, he's not as good Laker fans make him out to be). His backup is eyeliner wearing Luke Walton, average at best, but works well in the triangle offense Phil Jackson likes to run. The Lakers, of course, have the best shooting guard in the game in Kobe Bryant, but his backup is Sasha Vujacic, a guy the Laker's fans are not too thrilled with. He's a great shooter, but is soft (softness being the Laker's biggest problem currently) and doesn't do much else. The Laker's second unit (especially when Bynum was injured and Lamar Odom was starting), really had trouble scoring, so they need a guy who can make something happen offensively. Teams won't find a prolific scorer this late in the draft, so a guy like Danny is about as good as they're going to get.

San Antonio Spurs (51st pick): The Spurs are the closest thing to a dynasty the NBA has had in the last few years. Their most recent run has come from their three stars (Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Longoria) surrounded by role players that are happy trade flashy stats for wins. The problem is, Duncan's not getting any younger and Ginobili has ankle trouble that does not seem to be going away. They really need to start transitioning away from that setup and start building around Parker. The Spurs have done a great job in the draft for years and are particularly good at finding guys in the second round that can be real players (Luis Scola, Ginobili, etc.). With Ginobili out, the Spurs had Roger Mason, Jr. starting at shooting guard and they have Bruce Bowen and Micheal Finley (both of whom are over 35) playing small forward. It's possible that the Spurs could trade Manu, fearing more injuries, so in addition to a SF as Bowen and Finley are phased out they could probably use help at shooting guard. Things are definitely going down hill for this team, but their fantastic front office should be able to figure out a way to get back on top.

The NBA drafted is slated to get underway June 25th and we'll take a look at how all of our guys should fit in with their new teams.

Big Wern

World Wide Wes

2009-05-15T00:35:00.009-04:00

I was talking to my friend Bobby about basketball the other day and he brought up William Wesley, a.k.a World Wide Wes. If you don't know about Wes, he is possibly the most connected man in America. If there's a major sporting event, he's there. He's a close friend of both Jordan and LeBron. When Iverson was playing for Larry Brown in Philadelphia, Wes told him to quit complaining and just go to practice. I could go on, but it would be easier to just link you to this.

During our conversation Bobby, mentioned a quote by Reggie Miller regarding the fact that Wes was on the floor during the Pacers-Pistons brawl in 2004. I looked up the quote:

"What the hell is he doing out there in the middle of all that? I mean what is he doing? He has no business out there! He injects himself into the middle of everything!"

That got me thinking. Maybe Wes is some kind of combination of Kaiser Soze and "Bong Boy" from the Upright Citizens Brigade. If you don't know who Kaiser Soze is, I don't have the space to explain it, just watch The Usual Suspects. "Bong Boy" is a character from the shortly lived, but spectacular, Comedy Central Show The Upright Citizens Brigade. He's confused stoner, who somehow ends up in the middle of every major catastrophe in America. So I decided to do some research to see where else Wes has been and a quick google images search found these:

First, here's Wes hold back Ron Artest at the brawl:

In 1963 Wes was driving a famous car in one of the most tragic events in American history:

Then, in 1989, Wes was spotted at a crucial event in World history in Germany:

In 2005, Wes was spotted helping folks flee the city of New Orleans:

Earlier this year, Wes happened to be vacationing in Mexico:

He was even in Cuba in 1959 at an event that I thought was fictional until I saw this photograph:
...and, of course, you'll never guess who was the referee during that fateful Carolina-Dook game in 2007:

Big Wern

Possible Destinations for Tar Heels in 2009 NBA Draft Part I

2009-05-11T23:55:00.020-04:00

I know that the NBA is not as fun to watch as college hoops, but I live in Los Angeles. While people occasionally jump on the UCLA or USC bandwagon out here, the Lakers are what people care about out here. In La La Land, if I want to talk with someone about basketball as opposed to at them, I am forced to discuss The League.

As you have probably heard, this draft class is considered to be the weakest in years. While there are a couple of guys who will be drafted on potential (like Italy's Brandon Jennings and the University of Spoiled Children's DeMar DeRozan), there are a lot of guys who proved themselves for two or three years in college. It seems that conventional wisdom these days is that if a kid stays four years, he probably does not posses the talent to have a lasting career in the league (although I wouldn't say that to Tyler Hansbrough's face). Many of the kids out of Europe or Asia and one-and-doners from college are thought of as projects that will take time to develop. Since the juniors and seniors have had time to develop in college, they are more prepared to play a significant role on a team right away. Since our guys (two juniors, two seniors) have had time to develop, teams are more likely to draft them fill a specific need. This being the case, I will discuss where our guys might land and what role they might play on a perspective team. In part one I will cover the juniors, Lawson and Ellington.

Tywon Lawson

Although a bit undersized, Lawson has the best chance of any of our four guys in this year's draft to be a lottery pick. Ricky Rubio of Spain (I'm not going to put up a link to everyone I mention here, but the music in this clip is pretty great), is considered the best PG in the class and most folks have him going #2 (behind Blake Griffin). Brandon Jennings is considered the second best PG this year and will almost certainly be taken before Ty. Lawson is in a group with Stephen Curry, Eric Maynor, Jonny Flynn and Patrick Mills as his main competition. Here are some options I see for him.

Los Angeles Clippers (projected 3rd): The Clips are slated to have the third pick in the draft but could fall as far as 6th (or of course get luck and get one of the first two spots). Although it would be nice for Ty to get 6th pick money, this would be, like the Clippers entire organization, a disaster. I've been to a few games and Mike Dumbleavy is not only worst coach but also the worst GM in the NBA. He signed Barron Davis, a player whose playing style is the polar opposite of his coaching style, to a huge contract. He runs no plays. I would also worry about the influence a guy like Zach Randolph would have on Ty in a city whose lack of transportation makes it necessary to drive everywhere. Luckily the probability of this is small and hopefully it will never happen, but they do need a backup for Barron other than Mike Taylor.

New York Knicks (projected 8th pick): It's possible (though not likely) that Lawson could go 8th, but the Knicks could fall as low as 12th, which is a spot that Lawson could definitely land in. The Knicks are looking to sign a big free agent next off season and if they could be an elite team very soon. Another great reason is that Coach Mike D'Antoni has perfected the Seven Seconds or Less offense, which could turn Lawson into a star right away. In fact Chris Duhon averaged 11.1 ppg and 7.2 apg last season and I think its safe to say Lawson should be a better starting PG than him.

Phoenix Suns (projected 14th pick): The Suns were the most fun team to watch when D'Antoni was the coach. Steve Nash won two MVP awards and they were though of as contenders in the West for a couple of years. Now things have really changed. Jason Richardson and Amare Stoudemire both have all-star potential, Matt Barnes and Leandro Barbosa are both above average NBA players, but Shaq and Grant Hill are ancient and it's rumored that Nash wants to join his old coach in New York. If he leaves, Lawson could have a big opportunity with J-Rich and Amare as his weapons. If he stays, Lawson could learn from Nash and should get more minutes than current back up Goran Dragic.

Wayne Ellington

Although he started the season slow, Ellington really came on in the latter part of the season, culminating with his being awarded Most Outstanding Player of the 2009 tournament. What most impressed me most about Wayne's play this year was that while his shot was cold early, he really started doing the little things. He averaged almost 4.9 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. Not only are those nice numbers for a two guard, but a lot of those rebounds and assists came at crucial moments in big games. Last year I wasn't convinced that Wayne would ever be a first round pick, but now I'd be shocked if he were not.

Charlotte Bobcats (projected 12th pick): Projections for Wayne are all around the latter portion of the first round, and this is as high a pick as he could hope for. This team went under a complete facelift this year after Larry Brown took over as head coach, and for the first time in franchise history things are starting to look up. The team has no real backup for Raja Bell at shooting guard and after trading Jason Richardson and Adam Morrison the only deep threat they currently have is Vladimir Radmanovich. There are a ton of Carolina alumni in the organization (Jordan, Phil Ford, Raymond Felton, and Sean May), so that always helps his chances.

Chicago Bulls (projected 16th pick): If you missed this years playoff series between the Bulls and the Celtics, I feel sorry for you. Even my dad, who HATES the NBA style of play admitted it was fun almost watching the Celtics go down. The Bulls are fairly young and Derrick Rose will be an All-Star for many years. Ben Gordon's contract expires this year and after his play in the series will probably be more than the Bulls can afford. This could be a great opening on a team that promises to have a bright future.

Sacramento Kings (projected 23rd pick): This was supposed to be the Rocket's pick, but the Kings received it in the Ron Artest trade. Earlier in this decade, the Kings were a great team, and in fact would have won the Western Conference Finals in 2002 if not for David Stern's version of the Montreal Screwjob. Since then, the Kings have disintegrated and apparently the Maloof brothers have decided to unofficially turn this into an NBDL team. The King's best player is SG Kevin Martin, a shooting guard, but they may opt to replace current backup Rashad McCants, who is a restricted free agent.

Part II with Tyler Hansbrough and Danny Green coming soon!

Posted by Big Wern

Breeding Ground

2009-05-04T23:04:00.026-04:00

Guest post by Gutty

Ever heard this one from Roy Williams?

"The more you win, the more you win"

Coming from a direct speaking guy like RW, this always sounded too meta for me to follow, until now.

CB McGrath. (You know, the administrative-looking guy on the bench) Kansas was 58-0 at home during McGrath's playing career. See what him and Jerod Haase contributed here.

1:30-1:50 in this video is powerful stuff.

Roy rounded out his experienced Holliday/Robinson tandem with two new grads who roomed together at Kansas. Players who won and won and won and won. Now, heels win and win and win and win with this duo programming the backend of the program. They have been with Roy for 10 years. If you believe anything from this book about putting in 10 years or 10,000 hours of practice into your craft before you master it, I'd say these two should be rounding out nicely by now. The staff is just now coming into its potential. Realizing this, could you expect any less than UNC's recent success with player development? The 4th and 5th links in the coaching chain have experienced naught but the 80+% winning percentage Roy keeps in his pocket like so many nickels and dimes.

Perhaps I do believe RW when he says something unambiguous like

I have the best coaching staff in America and it's not even close.

Dean had a good staff too, apparently.

Will John Henson Play Small Forward at UNC?

2009-05-04T16:06:00.002-04:00

Coaches make a lot of promises when trying to acquire a top prospect. Coach K is notorious for promising tall players that they can play on the perimeter at Duke, only to force them in the paint because the team lacks a true inside presence. Roy Williams (using the precedent set by Dean Smith) doesn't often make promises to recruits. However, it has been publicly stated in comments from Henson that Williams wants to use him in the small forward position, or to put it another way, him play “the 3.” Specifically, Henson has said that Williams wants him to be able to guard an opposing team's small forward.

For those less familiar with Henson, he's 6'10” and as long or longer in wingspan than Brandan Wright. Here's the extra twist that makes him UNC's top recruit for 2009: he has guard skills. Henson went on a massive growth spurt after his sophomore year, vaulting him from a middling shooting guard prospect to an elite level forward. Henson's still adjusting to his size, but he takes three pointers and works on his ball handling and perimeter game regularly.

So the question is: will John Henson at small forward actually happen? The pros could be heavenly, the cons could be unsettling.

The size advantage provided by Henson at the small forward position is like nothing college basketball has ever seen. UNC could easily field a team with these heights at the five positions: 6'3 (Strickland), 6'4 (Ginyard), 6'10 (Henson), 6'10 (Davis), 7'0 (Zeller). This is an average heigh of 6'8” on the court. The advantages of height in the game of basketball are well documented, and include rebounding, shot blocking, and defensive mismatches that would be impossible to handle for opposing squads.

Another major advantage to Henson at the 3 is that it eases the logjam of talent in the post. Including Henson as a power forward, UNC would have six players for two positions (Thomspon, Davis, Zeller, Henson, D. Wear, T. Wear). Henson could share time at the small forward position with Will Graves, freeing up Marcus Ginyard to help with his ball handling and experience at the less stacked shooting guard (and possibly point guard) position.

The problems lie in Henson's ability to produce in the small forward roll, both on offense and defense. Offensively his perimeter game is a work in progress. He handles the ball well enough for high school, but what about when college level guards are swatting at him? His shooting looks good but has yet to become consistent. Defensively, his strength is shot blocking, a role that will be less maximized at the small forward position. The same can be said for rebounding potential. Defending on the perimeter, I'm reminded of how Brandan Wright used to be forced to squat down at the three point line to stop the outside shot, then get burned off the dribble.

I believe Henson will play small forward at UNC for several reasons. First, UNC will be employing the super-speed rotation that was most visible in the 2006-2007 season. A rotation of 12-13 players is not out of the question. Given the reduced time for all players, more experimentation will be possible. Henson at the 3 frees up space for a greater variety of rotations, plus gives Henson time to play at his future position in the NBA.

Which leads us to the second major reason why Henson will play the 3: it looks good to future recruits. Versatile big men want to come to a school where they can develop an NBA game. Henson successfully playing at the 3 will be an advertisement to top prospects around the nation. UNC has a strong reputation for taking care of the needs of the player off the court and in team planning, and would like to add to that reputation with another success story.

Another major factor is that UNC will be rebuilding next year, not necessarily gunning for a title. This leaves open the door for slow development: if Henson can bolster his guard skills this year and stay on for one more, he'd be lethal.

Given these factors, the quotes from Henson about conversations with Williams, and the fresh, experimental nature of next season, I firmly believe Henson will see significant minutes at the small forward position.

John Wall Pt. 2

2009-05-04T15:00:00.004-04:00

I was planning on writing a response to Tim's post about why Roy won't recruit John Wall today, but an event occurred this morning that has made me change my mind. I was going to tell you about how John has been a Carolina fan his entire life, how so many people have said what a great kid he really is once you get past Brian Clifton (his "handler"), and how Roy had no problem getting other one-and-doners to commit (see Williams, Marvin and Wright, Brandan). However, WRAL.com posted a story this morning, that made me decide not to go along with my previous idea. If you don't want to read the article, it basically tells us that John was charged with the misdemeanor breaking and entering of an unoccupied house for sale on April 27th.

John Wall has certainly been one of the more interesting recruits in recent history. Most recruiting experts have him in the top five nationally (Scout and Rivals have him at No. 1, ESPN at No. 5) and he has been chased by major programs. In 2004, Carolina set a precedent for this kind of thing with JamesOn Curry. Curry, you may remember, was a highly rated prospect out of Burlington who signed a letter of intent to play with Carolina. During his senior year of high school, 49 students at Eastern Alamance High School were arrested and Curry received six drug related felony charges including sale and delivery of marijuana. While Curry was not as highly rated as a prospect as Wall and his charges are much worse (six felonies vs. one misdemeanor), their situations are still similar.

While there has been much buzz since Wall and Coach Williams talked during the Final Four, no offer had ever been made. The general feeling has been that Wall needed to prove to Roy that he was serious about things other than basketball. Wall took the SAT's last weekend and many thought that a good score on the test plus a good set of grades this semester could convince Roy to make an offer. It is still possible that there is some kind of explanation for Wall's arrest, and Williams will look past this, but it is not likely. Next year will be a rebuilding one regardless, and Williams probably does not want any unnecessary baggage to affect the team even if John is shown to be completely innocent.

What interests me in this whole situation is how this episode will affect the other teams recruiting Wall. Coach Cal at Kentucky, has a good history of taking point guards for one year and setting them up nicely for the NBA (Derrick Rose No. 1 overall last year and Tyreke Evans looks to be lottery bound this year). Also, the University of Kentucky has a history of violations (probation from the NCAA for three years in 1989, point-shaving in 1951), and Coach Cal, while never actually found guilty of violations, has been near them. While at UMass, the school had to vacate some wins (including a final four,) because of Marcus Camby's acceptance of $28,ooo from an agent while in school. Also, while at Memphis, Shawne Williams accepted cash from an agent (who he never even signed with upon leaving school). The Kentucky fan base knew what they were getting into with Coach Cal, probably would be willing to look at the misdemeanor charge as "kids being kids," (which certainly may be the case). However, since Wall's mother purportedly wants John near home, Kentucky could still have a major disadvantage.

What about Duke? Will this be enough of a strike against Wall to overcome Coach K's desperation for a top notch point guard? Will he just let the lacrosse team handle the recruiting from here on out? I think its safe to say that most Carolina fans would rather Coach K look like a stand up guy and stop recruiting Wall than have to face him at least twice next year. Miami has also been a player in this whole deal. Now, we know that The U's football team would have no problem with this, but what about Coach Haith? He's really taken the Miami basketball program to the next level and Wall could bring them to the top of the ACC. Of course, there is always NC State, the closest to home. I personally think it would be cool to see Wall pull a Jimmy Chitwood to allow Coach Lowe to stay around a few more years.

This story is too fresh to see how it really changes things, but conventional wisdom says that it will change this crazy story somehow. It remains to be seen how serious the charge is, whether he will be convicted of it, and what really happened in that unoccupied house. I truly hope it's just a case of a kid just being stupid with no bad intentions. I know I certainly made boneheaded mistakes as a teenager as most all kids do. I hope John can get past this, and I look forward to watching this amazing basketball player next year regardless of where he lands (well, unless of course he ends up at Duke).

Big Wern

Why Roy Williams Won’t Offer John Wall

2009-04-30T21:55:00.001-04:00

In the contemporary basketball world, time with players is precious. The days of freshmen playing JV, coming along as a sophomore, and then blossoming as an upperclassman, are over. Roy Williams understands this best among the aging top coaches in the nation. Thus he has tailored his teams in the image of Dean Smith’s but, and there’s no need to sugarcoat this, much dumbed down. To accomplish this, Williams embraces basketball principles and systems that are easy to grasp: uptempo play, man to man defense, and a commitment to feeding the post.

Those are just the basketball principles. Williams follows other principles in regard to how he builds his program. He possesses a few recruiting rules: a recruit must be a team player, recruits are only recruited through direct contact with Williams, when a player considers going to the NBA Williams will facilitate them, and finally that no recruit will be promised anything about how they will be used (like how much playing time they will receive, for example).

Much has been discussed about the possibility of superstar prospect point guard John Wall coming to UNC. With every day that passes, it becomes more and more clear that Coach Williams will not offer Wall a scholarship. Championship hungry fans can’t understand why. The reason why is a complicated one, the various angles of which I will flesh out in this article.

2009-2010 will be a rebuilding season for the Tarheels. Even with John Wall aboard, which at this point is almost certainly not a possibility, the Heels would have an outside chance at best. To see this clearly, compare the freshman laden team with the 2007-2008 Tarheels, a top notch squad with fantastic upperclassmen, that spent numerous weeks ranked #1, that earned a 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, and was absolutely obliterated by Kansas in the Final Four. I can’t see how even a John Walled UNC team can be close to the 2008 squad after just one year with six freshmen in significant roles. A John Wall led UNC team would have a better chance to win it all, but no one would say the “best chance” or even a “great chance.”

Wall is projected to be a one-and-done superstar. This means if UNC fails to win a title next year with Wall, his presence on the team serves only to keep other players like Larry Drew from developing into a championship caliber player more quickly. Guys like Drew form a backbone for a program; guys like Wall are a steroid shot in the arm for one season. This is not to say that there’s no place for one-and-dones at UNC (think Marvin Williams), but their value is greatly reduced in a rebuilding year. A player like Wall would complicate the plan to develop players and build an entirely new program for UNC in the post-Hansbrough era.

In addition, UNC has a phenomenal combo guard in Dexter Strickland and a top rated pure point guard in Kendall Marshall joining the squad in 2009 and 2010, respectively. A rumor once circulated that Marshall was even promised by Williams that he would not take any more point guards until 2011, as a condition for taking Marshall on so early (he committed at the end of his 10th grade season). Whether or not this is true, there’s no question that the addition of Wall would ruffle at least a couple of players’ feathers (or their parents’, which can be even worse). Tricky family politics and the weakening of fragile player egos is a headache Williams does not want.

Further working against Wall to UNC is the fact that Wall has not yet qualified by NCAA academic standards. He’s taken the SAT or ACT at least once and failed to make the grade. The last thing Roy Williams wants to worry about is whether a player will have difficulty with the academic aspect of a program that prides itself on graduation rates and dealing only with reputable players and high schools.

Finally, Wall has a handler named Brian Clifton who has gone on record as saying he hates UNC. One of his biggest concerns is control over Wall’s use, and control over who his NBA agent will be. Clifton knows that Williams will never work through him, or even keep him in the loop. Roy Williams recruits players, not handlers or influencers. This has lost UNC recruits in the past (like Delvon Roe). The reasons for the strict rules on recruiting are part of Williams’ principles that keep his program, and his conscience, clean. The presence of Clifton and all the tampering and agenda inserting that he would bring is a mess Roy Williams won’t desire to clean up.

To recap, taking John Wall means screwing up the rebuilding plans, possibly offending and alienating future and current players, weakening the academic integrity of the school, and parting with principles regarding disruptive handlers. The positives? A slightly increased chance at a long shot for a national championship. Which choice would you make?

Projections and Expectations for the Coming 09-10 Season

2009-04-29T14:40:00.001-04:00

The upcoming team's backcourt is a source of much worry for UNC fans. I believe that these concerns are exaggerated. The 05-06 Tarheels had a stronger backcourt than frontcourt, and this was a team that achieved great success. I argue that the upcoming backcourt is superior to this one.

So let's compare the guards from these two seasons:

05-06:
Frasor (Fr)
Miller (Jr)
Thomas (So)
Ginyard (Fr)

vs.

09-10:
Drew (So)
Strickland (Fr)
Ginyard (Sr)
McDonald (Fr)

As I see it, 09-10 is older, taller, and utilizes experience in more important (starting) roles.
The starting point guard spot is an interesting foundation for comparison. Larry Drew has had a rollercoaster career thus far: brilliant at the start of the season, only to become a bit shaky in mid to late season. My source revealed to me recently that Drew came to Chapel Hill with a chip on his shoulder, being the son of a coach and figuring he had little to learn. Perhaps this (ill founded) confidence and subsequent humbling traced his performance. Whatever the reasons, I feel that the UNC faithful have been overly critical of Drew. Let's compare his outlook next year with 05-06's starting PG, Bobby Frasor.

Drew might not shoot as well as Frasor (who, erroneously, shot well his freshman year and never thereafter), but he's longer, faster, more athletic, is a far superior defender, and had a better assist rate this past year than Frasor had as a freshman. His offense, especially his ability to get to the free throw line which he demonstrated already, could easily blossom given the playing time that will be his to lose next season. Plus he'll have an extra year under his belt compared to the freshman Frasor. Given these factors, I have no doubt that Drew will outperform Frasor as UNC's starting PG.

A fifth year senior Marcus Ginyard, if healthy, should outperform 05-06's Wes Miller. Ginyard became the team's leading three point shooter, percentage-wise, in 07-08. I see no reason why he shouldn't continue his progression and be able to knock down set shots at a perfectly serviceable clip. He won't shoot the way Wes Miller shot in 05-06, but it won't be a huge drop. Plus he gives the team a lift in areas Miller could never dream of: height, tall defense, rebounding, and athleticism.

Dexter Strickland and a sophomore Quentin Thomas are the players to compare for backup PG. QT was coming off a bad freshman year (far worse than Drew was this past season), and honestly was never a top prospect to begin with. Dexter Strickland is the same height, more athletic, and possesses explosive offensive potential. Strickland is a top prospect as a freshman, something Thomas was not. Advantage Strickland, easily.

Finally we have newcomer Leslie McDonald comparing to a freshman Marcus Ginyard. Fittingly, McDonald is most often compared as a similar high school prospect as Ginyard. McDonald has solid shooting form, and during his junior year of high school was considered an elite SG recruit. His senior year, however, was without the offensive sparks. Still, he's a straight team player and does all the little things. Sound familiar? McDonald and Ginyard are a wash as freshmen.

Via head to head comparisons (and overall summation, I believe), 2009-2010 has a stronger backcourt than 2005-2006. Now, the frontcourts of the two seasons don't require in depth assessment: it's 09-10 by a mile. Even though there is no Hansbrough on the team, there will also be no Byron Sanders and no undersized David Noel, and, as one reported described it, “an embarrassment of riches” of top notch post players in Ed Davis, Deon Thompson, Tyler Zeller, David and Travis Wear, and possibly John Henson.

What does it mean if 09-10 outperforms 05-06? The team would do better than finishing 2nd in the ACC, going 1-1 against Duke, and a 3 seed in the NCAAs. Will there be losses? Yes, especially early. But expect the team to come together and make noise, with a deep tournament run always possible.