1. Don’t overlook Shaun Marcum’s return
Marcum did not pitch for the Blue Jays at all in 2009 due to Tommy John surgery. His only game action came in the form of five starts late in the season spread across three levels of the minors. In those five starts, he posted a 2.30 ERA with a 7.5 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. Yes, the sample size is small, but the fact his command was so sharp so soon after returning from surgery is a very good sign. Prior to the surgery, Marcum posted a 3.39 ERA in 25 starts with the Jays in 2008 with a 7.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. This April, Marcum will be roughly 19 months post-op, and I have every reason to believe he’ll return to his ‘08 form. He’s fallen off the radar for most owners, but he’s certainly a guy to keep in mind for the late rounds.

2. There’s still hope for Edwin Encarnacion
Most fantasy owners have, for the most part, written Encarnacion off as a fantasy option. I, on the other hand, still see some potential value here. He hit just .225 last season and was limited to just 85 games due to wrist and knee injuries, but once he finally got healthy late in the season, he batted .317 with seven home runs and 15 RBI over his last 17 games. Not only that, but he’s only one year removed from slamming 26 dingers in 2008 and still has a hold on the third base job in Toronto, as the organization has made it clear they intend on moving the newly acquired Brett Wallace across the diamond to first base. It won’t take more than a late-round flyer to secure Encarnacion’s services in 2010, but there’s still potential here.

3. Jason Frasor can handle closer role
Whether Frasor will be given the opportunity to hold down the closer job on his own remains to be seen. After all, both Scott Downs and Kevin Gregg have closing experience. But should the Blue Jays give him the job and let him run with it, he should hold his own. A new split-finger pitch helped Frasor take the next step last season, as he posted the best walk rate (2.5) of his career and his strikeout rate was close to 9.0 (8.7) after falling below 8.0 in 2008. And the fact he saved double-digit games last year after Downs got hurt certainly helps his case. Given the other arms in the Jays’ bullpen, Frasor carries a fair amount of risk. But taking that risk could also pay big dividends, because the skills are there.

1. Matt Garza is worth getting excited about
Garza may have won only eight games last season with an ERA barely under 4.00 and some fairly drastic home/road splits, but I’m still excited about the right-hander in 2010. Last year’s 8.4 K/9 rate was a significant increase over his 6.2 mark in 2008, and more closely resembles the dominance he displayed in four minor league seasons (10.9 K/9). If Garza can cut last season’s 3.5 walk rate closer to his 2008 mark (2.9) and eventually closer to his career minor league rate (2.6), he could be special. The fact he posted a combined 2.49 ERA in 10 starts against the Yankees and Red Sox in 2009 doesn’t hurt, either.

2. Don’t ignore Pat Burrell as a cheap power source
Burrell’s first season in Tampa didn’t go well. Limited to just 122 games due to a neck injury that sent him to the disabled list in May, he hit just .221 with 14 home runs and 64 RBI. At 33 and coming off an injury-riddled campaign, Burrell is at the point where a skills decline wouldn’t be out of the ordinary. That said, the slugger did hit at least 29 homers and never hit below .250 (not good, but significantly better than last year’s mark) from 2005-2008, so there’s reason to believe a bounceback is in store now that he’s had an entire offseason to get back to 100 percent. And with a current ADP of 332 (meaning he’s going undrafted in most mixed leagues), there’s almost no risk here.

3. I’ll take Kelly Shoppach as my second catcher, please
I won’t pretend there aren’t big holes in Shoppach’s game. He strikes out a ton, doesn’t hit right-handers well, and batted a dismal .214 in 217 at-bats with the Indians last season. Then again, there are some positives, too. Shoppach has 33 home runs over his last 623 big league at-bats, and he did bat a not-awful .261 in 2007 and 2008. Plus, he showed some real gains in 2009, improving his walk rate from 8.9% to 10.1%, striking out less, and posting a career-best 21.8% line drive rate. With regular playing time in Tampa Bay, there’s 20+ homer potential here, and he won’t kill you in the batting average department if his batting average returns to the .260 level. That’s production I’ll happily accept from my No. 2 catcher.

1. Brett Gardner has intriguing potential with playing time
Whether or not Gardner will in fact get significant playing time in 2010 remains to be seen. The Yankees currently plan to use a Gardner/Randy Winn platoon in left field, but you never know what the organization will do down the road. But assuming they follow through on their plan, Gardner is an intriguing fantasy option. While he’s not a great hitter by any stretch, he did steal 26 bases in just 248 at-bats with the Yankees last season, and he swiped 50 bags in 136 combined games between Triple-A and the big leagues in 2008. Not only that, but his 87 percent big-league success rate (39-for-45) shows he knows what he’s doing. If given 400-500 at-bats, there’s little reason why he can’t steal 40+ bases.

2. Curtis Granderson is more intriguing as a Yankee
Despite the 30 home runs, Granderson’s 2009 season was somewhat of a disappointment considering he hit just .249 (.280 in 2008) and scored just 91 runs despite accumulating his highest at-bat total ever (112 runs in 2008; 122 runs in 2007). However, batting atop the Yankees lineup, which scored a big-league best 915 runs last season, he’s a threat to the lead the American League in runs if his average rebounds. Additionally, given the short right-field porch in the New Yankee Stadium, Granderson could improve on the career-best 30 dingers he hit last season. There are some concerns here, such as whether he can rebound against left-handers (he hit just .183 vs. them last season), but the positives outweigh the negatives in 2010.

3. Javier Vazquez makes me nervous
In 2009, Vazquez’s first season with the Braves, he had a career-best campaign, going 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 238 Ks in 219 innings. Alas, he was dealt to the Yankees over the offseason in the Melky Cabrera deal, making his outlook for 2010 a little murky. As we all remember, Vazquez’s one-year stint with the Yanks back in 2004 didn’t go well, as he sported a 4.91 ERA in 32 starts. We can argue that Vazquez has made strides as pitcher since then, but moving from the NL to the AL should still add at least a half run to his ERA, and let’s not forget he held a 4.67 ERA and 1.32 WHIP as recently as 2008 with the White Sox. I’m not necessarily predicting a collapse here, but I’m not drafting him as the ace he proved to be in Atlanta.

1. Mixed feelings on Adrian Beltre
On one hand, Beltre is leaving Safeco Field, one of the least hitter-friendly parks in the majors, where he’s just a .252 career hitter, and he’s moving to Fenway Park, a big upgrade. Beltre also hit .290-30-108 in 144 road games over 2007 and 2008, his last two healthy seasons. But there’s the sticking point: health. Beltre was limited to just 111 games in 2009 due to shoulder (and groin) issues, and thumb injuries kept him from reaching 150 games in 2007 and 2008. This looks to be a great situation for Beltre to get a fresh start, but at age 30 these durability issues may not simply go away.

2. Don’t bet on a rebound from Dice-K
Few owners are excited about Daisuke Matsuzaka following his injury-stricken 2009 campaign that saw him go 4-6 with a 5.76 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in 12 starts. Then again, the right-hander is also only one year removed from winning 18 games and posting a 2.90 ERA. Even so, there are too many warning signs in Dice-K’s skill set for me to predict a rebound in 2010. The shoulder issues that plagued him last year are one thing, but almost all indicators show his 2008 season was a fluke, anyway. His 5.1 BB/9 rate was a disaster, and his ERA was artificially deflated by a .267 BABIP. Plus, he allowed just 12 home runs despite being a flyball pitcher in Fenway Park. Talk about luck. Even with health, this is not a fantasy ace; he’s AL-only material, at best.

3. Marco Scutaro has nowhere to go but down
Scutaro turned his career year in 2009 – .282-12-60-100-14 – into a two-year contract with the Red Sox. Good for him. But fantasy owners should realize last season was a picture-perfect scenario for Scutaro in which everything came together perfectly. The fact he posted his highest full-season flyball rate (43.6%) and walk rate (13.2%) is encouraging, but I have a difficult time believing he’s suddenly turned a corner at age 34. Scutaro is a career .265 hitter who never hit double-digit home runs or stole double-digit bases prior to last season, and while he’ll be part of a better lineup in Boston, he’ll be batting at the bottom of the order, as opposed to leadoff, where he spent every game with the Blue Jays in 2009. When evaluating Scutaro, look at the big picture – not what you saw last season.

1. Chris Tillman could surprise
Tillman’s 2009 stat line with the Orioles – 5.40 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 12 starts – says you’re better off looking elsewhere for starting pitching help this season. And the 5.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 rates don’t say much different. But let’s not forget this former second-round pick held a 2.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 18 Triple-A starts before his promotion last year, not to mention a 9.2 K/9 rate and 2.4 walk rate. Pitching in the AL East is no picnic, and there are surely some more bumps in the road, but Tillman is the perfect type of pitcher to target late in AL-only leagues. His draft-day cost will be minimal, but the upside is significant.

2. Brian Roberts’ decline could be around the corner
I won’t argue that Roberts isn’t a reliable fantasy option. I currently have him ranked fourth amongst second basemen, and he was a top-35 hitter last season, hitting .283 with 16 home runs, 79 RBI, 30 steals and 110 runs. That said, it’s hard not to notice that his stolen bases and stolen base attempts have declined drastically the last two years. He went from 50 steals (57 attempts) in 2007 to 40 steals (50 attempts) in 2008 and 30 steals (37 attempts) last season. His declining stolen base total can be at least partly attributed to the fact hit a career-high 56 doubles last season and hit 16 homers (his highest total since 2005), but for a guy nearing his mid 30s, trends like this one need to be monitored.

3. Garrett Atkins has nowhere to go but up
On the surface, this statement is completely true. After all, Atkins hit just .226-9-48 in 126 games last year, so it’s not like things can get much worse. But that doesn’t mean things will be getting a whole lot better, either. Atkins is just a career .252 hitter away from Coors Field, including a .200 road average last season, so a move to another park – even an above-average hitting one like Camden Yards – won’t help his bottom line.
His average will rebound to some extent this year as last year’s .247 BABIP normalizes, but the fact he hit just .199 against right-handers in 2009 is not a good sign. Atkins is only AL-only fodder at this point.

Catchers

1. Joe Mauer
2. Victor Martinez
3. Brian McCann
4. Kurt Suzuki
5. Jorge Posada
6. Bengie Molina
7. Miguel Montero
8. Matt Wieters
9. Russell Martin
10. Mike Napoli

First Base

1. Albert Pujols
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Ryan Howard
4. Mark Teixeira
5. Prince Fielder
6. Adrian Gonzalez
7. Justin Morneau
8. Kendry Morales
9. Joey Votto
10. Lance Berkman

Second Base

1. Chase Utley
2. Ian Kinsler
3. Brian Roberts
4. Dustin Pedroia
5. Brandon Phillips
6. Ben Zobrist
7. Robinson Cano
8. Aaron Hill
9. Dan Uggla
10. Ian Stewart

Third Base

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. David Wright
3. Evan Longoria
4. Pablo Sandoval
5. Ryan Zimmerman
6. Mark Reynolds
7. Kevin Youkilis
8. Chone Figgins
9. Aramis Ramirez
10. Michael Young

Shortstop

1. Hanley Ramirez
2. Jose Reyes
3. Troy Tulowitzki
4. Jimmy Rollins
5. Derek Jeter
6. Alexei Ramirez
7. Miguel Tejada
8. Jhonny Peralta
9. Yunel Escobar
10. Elvis Andrus

Outfield

1. Ryan Braun
2. Matt Kemp
3. Carl Crawford
4. Jacoby Ellsbury
5. Matt Holliday
6. Justin Upton
7. Ichiro Suzuki
8. Grady Sizemore
9. Bobby Abreu
10. B.J. Upton

Starting Pitchers

1. Tim Lincecum
2. Roy Halladay
3. Zack Greinke
4. Felix Hernandez
5. CC Sabathia
6. Justin Verlander
7. Jon Lester
8. Adam Wainwright
9. Dan Haren
10. Cliff Lee

Relief Pitchers

1. Joe Nathan
2. Jonathan Broxton
3. Jonathan Papelbon
4. Mariano Rivera
5. Joakim Soria
6. Andrew Bailey
7. Heath Bell
8. Huston Street
9. Francisco Rodriguez
10. Chad Qualls

1. Joe Nathan – Posted a career-high 47 saves in 2009 and is as safe as they come.

2. Mariano Rivera – He’s getting up there in age, but he keeps doing it year after year.

3. Jonathan Broxton – With 114 Ks in 76 innings, it’s easy to see why he’s so high up on this list.

4. Jonathan Papelbon – His walk rate shot up to 3.2 in 2009, but he’s still elite.

5. Joakim Soria – Soria saved only 30 games last year, but he’s still one of the game’s best.

6. Heath Bell – Bell made Padres fans forget about Trevor Hoffman very quickly.

7. David Aardsma – The high walk rate (4.3) is a concern, but he misses enough bats to make up for it.

8. Francisco Rodriguez – His numbers are trending in the wrong direction, but he still racks up the saves.

9. Andrew Bailey – Bailey may deserve to be higher on this list, but I want to see a little more.

10. Huston Street – I still worry about his durability, but it’s hard to argue with a 10.2 K/ 9 rate and 1.9 BB/9 rate.

1. Tim Lincecum – This list can be put together in a variety of ways, but this is the one no-brainer.

2. Roy Halladay – Few pitchers in the game are as reliable as Halladay, who struck out a career-best 208 hitters in 2009.

3. Felix Hernandez – Felix finally put it all together after a few seasons of not living up to the hype.

4. CC Sabathia – CC’s first year in pinstripes was a success, though his K/9 rate dropped from 8.9 to 7.7.

5. Zack Greinke – The 2.16 ERA and 242 strikeouts established him as one of the best in the game. He won 16 games for a terrible Royals, which is impressive all by itself, but that total may be difficult to repeat.

6. Justin Verlander – Bounced back after a disappointing 2008 season. His 269 Ks led the big leagues.

7. Dan Haren – Posted a career high 223 strikeouts and has made at least 33 starts in five straight seasons.

8. Johan Santana – Santana is expected to be fully recovery from elbow surgery by next season, but I’m concerned enough to have him this low in the top-10.

9. Adam Wainwright – Wainwright posted career highs in wins, innings, strikeouts and ERA in 2009. What’s not to like?

10. Chris Carpenter – His low strikeout total (144) is a negative, but his 2.24 ERA and 1.01 WHIP means he needs to be on this list.

1. Ryan Braun – With a .320 BA, 32 home runs, 114 RBI and 20 steals, Braun has cemented himself at the top of the outfield heap.

2. Matt Kemp – Kemp has emerged as one of the elite at the position and should once again challenge for 30/30 in 2010.

3. Carl Crawford – Proved he was fully healthy after an injury-stricken 2008 season. His 60 steals were a career high.

4. Jacoby Ellsbury – His 70 steals led baseball, and he hit .301, to boot.

5. Matt Holliday – Holliday’s value could fluctuate depending on where he signs, but he’s still one of the top options at the position.

6. Ichiro Suzuki – Ichiro’s age indicates he could be slowing down soon, but his .352 batting average this season tells us otherwise.

7. Grady Sizemore – I’m not fully confident with this ranking because of Sizemore’s injury issues, but early indications are that he’ll be 100 percent in spring training.

8. Jason Bay – The .267 batting average was a little lacking, but his 36 home runs and 119 RBI were both career highs. His 13 steals were his most since 2005, as well.

9. Justin Upton – Hit .300 with 26 home runs and 20 steals and there’s still room to grow.

10. Carlos Beltran – If healthy, he’s still one of the best multi-dimensional outfielders in the game.

1. Hanley Ramirez – He’s not running as much as he used to, but he’s still a 25/25 threat at the shortstop position and will be adding a batting title to his resume.

2. Jimmy Rollins – The batting average is down, but the rest of his numbers are there. I’m still buying.

3. Troy Tulowitzki – With 30-plus homers, 20 steals and a batting average near .300, he’s cemented as one of the top commodities at the position.

4. Derek Jeter – Talks of his demise were obviously overstated. That said, I’m not comfortable predicting a repeat.

5. Jose Reyes – The latest word is that Reyes’ hamstring surgery won’t impact his 2010, but he still has to be considered a major risk at this point. I can see moving him higher as the season gets closer, depending on how he looks.

6. Alexei Ramirez – Didn’t meet lofty expectations, but still provided solid value across the board.

7. Jason Bartlett – Not sure where the power came from, but the speed is legit. Be careful to not overpay.

8. Elvis Andrus – Still has room to grow, but showed great progress in his rookie season and has 50-steal upside.

9. Miguel Tejada – The power isn’t what it used to be, but he can still produce runs and hit for average.

10. Yunel Escobar – Nothing flashy, but he does many things well.