tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29845655805511263042026-04-08T03:18:18.565-04:00Utilize engineering psychology - creativity and ingenuity, to justify, debunk or combine different financial analysis techniques, providing quality/customized analysis to readers by introducing innovation in the financial worldUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger512125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-48640959412200114882022-11-03T12:09:00.004-04:002022-11-03T12:09:59.692-04:00

 The end of NFT royalties is a good thing.Web3 and NFT projects were built in a world that relied on royalty payments. But those royalties are going away, and a lot of people are worried about how their projects will survive without the revenue they generated. The latest example in this regard is the move from @LooksRare platform.Let's face it: NFTs have not lived up to their promise. We've

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-52550862160670425392022-09-29T08:59:00.003-04:002022-09-29T08:59:16.074-04:00

 Yesterday the market was positive & people are excited. Today, it might be negative. Instead of reacting to the market, let's pause & reflect.We discuss financial markets along with the web3 eco-system because both are closely linked. Thread on traditional finance & Web 3This becomes apparent when you start treating web3 communities or NFT projects as Startups. Once this is

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-25005143293216415542021-07-13T10:41:00.002-04:002021-07-13T10:41:26.820-04:00

Market analysis is not easy. Few cardinal sins in markets revolve around having a pre-conceived notion, acting on it in advance, and then doubling down even when wrong.The biggest problem is that no one really knows when they are right or wrong especially a person who is obsessed with markets. This is because such a person might consider different exit approaches based on different analysis

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-89121753843651294262018-08-11T20:16:00.000-04:002018-08-11T20:16:29.551-04:00

2018 has been an year of many lessons. This year we have seen severe volatility across assets classes ranging from stocks to bonds, and from crypto assets to fiat currencies. This type of volatility has resulted in many high-profile casualties, where some hedge funds had to close because of substantial losses while other prominent fund managers are severely under-performing. For example, David

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-27365925048585557762018-07-23T01:15:00.003-04:002018-07-23T08:19:35.195-04:00

H1 2018 has been very interesting. We started the year after an amazing 2017 and had a very good January. But January generated few sell signals and then everything got very interesting. SP500 declined sharply for two moths with a ~10% draw-down from January top to March bottom.  While 2018 has not been a typical banner year of out-performance for our proprietary investment

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-38816576210029033332018-04-12T00:45:00.003-04:002018-04-12T00:45:24.585-04:00

Q1 2018 has been very interesting. We started the year after an amazing 2017. In fact, we said the following words to define 2017 performance in Jan 2018:  "2017 was a very unique year with respect to market performance. SP500 was up for every month of the year, a very unusual occurrence. When one combines this amazing performance with extremely low volatility, it gave us a Sharpe

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-628707624324889232018-03-20T01:18:00.001-04:002018-03-20T01:38:27.002-04:00

This post is an expansion of a 10 tweet thread posted on 3/12 by @survive_thrive on Twitter. 2018 has been a very interesting year for the stock market. We have seen market perform amazingly in January, one of the best January on record but soon gave back all the gains in a period of 10 days.  This decline was accompanied by explosion of volatility, which caused many funds to

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-38216459799557997452018-01-11T09:20:00.003-05:002018-01-11T09:22:27.301-05:00

2017 was a very unique year with respect to market performance. SP500 was up for every month of the year, a very unusual occurrence. When one combines this amazing performance with extremely low volatility, it gave us a Sharpe Ratio of more than 3.5. To be honest, if one can get a Sharpe Ratio of 3.5 from an asset class like SP500, one should never invest anywhere else.  However, the

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-28347068802695662822017-10-16T08:18:00.001-04:002017-10-16T08:46:31.614-04:00

2017 has been a very eventful year. Through September, SP500 has rallied more than 14% with dividends, even with many uncertainties like geo-politics, environmental upheavals, and rising interest rates. In fact, SP500 has defied gravity, as if there is nothing like gravity of resistance, bemusing many market watchers who have been expecting a pause for quite some time now. Hence, it has

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-68654056083010291272017-08-25T08:43:00.000-04:002017-08-25T08:49:46.024-04:00

Over the past few weeks, we are seeing several consolidation patterns popping-up in different markets. Consolidation usually signals in-decision or brief pause before resumption of the underlying trend. However, markets also consolidate in a sequence of 1s and 2s before a significant move in a new direction. It appears like we are experiencing both the cases in different areas, where market is

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-91756694761835047622017-08-18T08:32:00.001-04:002017-08-18T08:33:22.776-04:00

Summary Overview of July / August market action Performance milestone of Investment Strategies Lessons learned from 2016 draw-down and positioning for effective investing Recent Market Action Yesterday we saw a significant downdraft in the markets with SP500 down over 1.5%, while Nasdaq was down ~2%. Although this kind of behavior is nothing new for market watchers who remember 2008, it

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-77962532683704700862017-07-21T09:30:00.002-04:002017-07-21T09:31:27.715-04:00

Summary: Gold market Overview at the top of the post Positioning / Investment options at the bottom of the post Analysis: Short, Medium and Long-term analysis with rationale in the middle Introduction On April 4, 2017 we mentioned that the Gold rally could pause over here. At that point Gold was at 1263 and today its at 1245. Following chart shows the ~4 month sideways consolidation in

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-55826412987908480242017-07-13T07:46:00.001-04:002017-07-22T13:59:01.407-04:00

Yesterday's rally in all of the major indices $DJIA, $SPX, $EEM, was very well received and triggered many tweets regarding Dow being at all time highs. Even President tweeted that stock markets are doing Great! I would recommend against such tweets because: What happens when the market goes down? If one owns a rising market, they would have to own the declining market as well, which could be

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-4894815208024555862017-07-06T08:55:00.003-04:002017-07-06T09:04:46.251-04:00

First half of 2017 was very eventful where SP500 continued to rally in face of many uncertainties. Hence, it was a difficult period of investors as they had to absorb a lot of headline risk and be brave in their investments. Both of our proprietary strategies have beaten SP500 in 2017 with good margins and with uncorrelated returns. Therefore, not being influenced by news headlines. Let's

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-46015808061645718702017-06-26T12:42:00.000-04:002017-06-26T12:42:14.453-04:00

Markets have been gyrating sideways with an upward-tilt over the past few weeks. Since the start of January, we have seen a rotation from Tech stocks to Industrials and as a result DJIA has reached all-time highs, while NASDAQ remains below its May highs.  Stock Market Turn We have discussed the possibility of a July top in the equity markets on multiple occasions on Twitter: @

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-66108690541703012212017-04-26T08:27:00.000-04:002017-04-26T09:13:46.631-04:00

Recap First Quarter of 2017 was very eventful. It started with an overbought market, which continued to gyrate with new president coming into the office and confusing Executive Orders. While all of this happened in January, earnings started coming in better than expected and propelled the market to new highs in February. After topping on March 1, within IPM turn window,

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-45396395592806364002017-04-04T21:13:00.002-04:002017-05-18T20:27:58.183-04:00

We started investing in Gold in 2016 April, after 4 years of being out of the Gold market. We again increased Gold exposure at the start of 2017, in our proprietary strategies (Jan / Feb 2017 Investment Strategies' Performance). Overall, Gold remains in an uptrend but recent development has made us wary of immediate upside of Gold.  In this post, we have analyzed Gold's

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-4226101155272945122017-03-28T06:34:00.000-04:002017-05-18T20:27:02.343-04:00

Over the last week, Financial News media is talking about how Trump will not be able to keep his promises given current political situation. Hence, continuation of the "Trump Rally," as it has come to be known, is in jeopardy. However, this is not correct and this is my problem with the media. News media needs a story and reports on everything after the fact because

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-24351784615166317622017-03-19T01:36:00.000-04:002017-05-18T20:26:18.853-04:00

Bitcoin is a digital currency - one of many. However, it is the first digital currency of its kind with a market cap of ~$18 B, with a finite supply. This means that there will be a time when no new bitcoins will be created, which is very important for any thing of value. Bitcoin does not have any central bank or country controlling it. Hence, it is the true currency for a society without

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-64980977696410875362017-03-16T08:34:00.000-04:002017-03-16T08:34:46.720-04:00

After briefly topping at the last turn date of Feb 28, 2017 (link), market rallied yesterday on Federal Reserve's announcement.  Market Condition During the correction since Feb 28, market did not generate any sell signals. In fact, it generated several buy readings from oversold perspective.  At the same time, Sentiment as subsided in the past few weeks, which will provide fuel for

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-88481405031768813042017-03-13T08:04:00.001-04:002017-05-18T20:25:51.103-04:00

We started tracking investment performance in real-time investment fund last year. Last year we launched conservative strategy and it yielded 12.2% returns versus SP500 returns of 12%. Strategy Overview Our goal has been to develop market neutral strategies that would enable investors to invest in any market environment with the goal of beating the market over the long-term, while ensuring

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-42560062908741559342017-02-23T08:12:00.000-05:002017-02-23T08:12:49.726-05:00

Market Overview Markets have rallied very significantly. First burst of the rally was after election till mid-December and the second burst has been from end of January till today. Impressively, our proprietary Market Classification Model remained long stocks during this entire period. Model turned bullish soon after Brexit and has remained bullish since July’16. Although in the

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-27928262381047283992017-02-15T08:02:00.002-05:002017-02-15T08:02:28.470-05:00

Market is on a tear and there is no sign of backing-off. Sentiment as subsided in the past few weeks, which has given fuel for this bull to ramp on. Furthermore, there are no sell signals on the horizon that suggest immediate danger. We remain long the stock market because our Market Classification Model remains bullish, which turned bullish on stocks in July 2016 and has remained bullish ever

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-60879891150601772732017-02-07T22:27:00.000-05:002017-05-18T20:22:43.346-04:00

There are many prominent investment themes for 2017. Investment themes help investors understand the broader investment landscape based on historical performance of different asset classes and their current catalysts. This analysis helps in properly positioning one's portfolio to take advantage of the winds of change. US Stock Market SP500 and DJIA have experienced an amazing 1 year rally.

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2984565580551126304.post-9209434320179898382017-02-04T21:58:00.000-05:002017-05-18T20:23:52.486-04:00

January was an interesting month for the markets. In the beginning of the month, markets continued to go sideways, which they had been doing for past couple of weeks - since mid December 2016. Then came the earnings and market zoomed higher. Although this rally was not as significant as post election rally in 2016, it did bring back a lot of enthusiasm. The rally continued with President's oath

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0