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Baseball, you’ve changed. It’s Time for Me to Leave.

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Mon, 27 May 2019 03:54:00 +0000

It isn’t easy to admit when you stop loving something. There is a sense of commitment to it even after the joy is gone. Falling out of love has been a long and slow process for me. It didn’t happen because a singular event ripped us apart. I am not hurt or angry. It happen because I changed and so did baseball, and we no longer match each other. It happened because the Mariners results didn’t change and the future doesn’t look bright. Baseball and the Seattle Mariners just aren’t for me anymore.

I remember when my disillusion with the Mariners started. It was 2013 when the Astros joined the AL West. The Astros were one of the worst teams in baseball for several years running. They lost over one hundred games in both 2011 and 2012. In 2013 they would finish 51-111. Yet against the Mariners they went 9-10. In their six matchups in April, when the season was still young and there was hope for the M’s, the Astros went 4-2. It was very disheartening seeing the Seattle Mariners get outplayed by the worst team in Major League Baseball. It really broke my passion for the Mariners. It showed me they really were a cursed/pathetic/hopeless organization.

Over the next five years the Mariners weren't even terrible; they never lost 90+ games. But they also weren’t good and they continued to no one’s surprise to miss the playoffs. The Mariners were stale. There were some fun times (Dae Ho Lee!) to be sure. However there was also a lot of the same old thing. The Mariners would start slow, start to climb back up the standings and then collapse right when it started to get interesting.

My cynicism for the Mariners didn’t end my enjoyment of baseball in immediately. That happened more gradually. There wasn’t a single event that made me lose interest. Instead it was just a slow steady decline resulting in where I am now. Baseball is boring to me.

The games don’t hold my attention anymore. Nothing happens for long stretches of the game. Most of the time you are just watching someone in the batters box fail to put the ball in play. Batters strikeout about a quarter of plate appearances (league median is 22.3%)

Additionally, players and managers have realized the value of walks and try to maximize them which leads to taking more pitches and earning more walks (8.5% of plateappearances in 2018.) combine these two trends and it means players don’t put the ball in play around a third of the time.

Then there are the constant commercial breaks (inning changes, pitcher changes, in game trips to the mound.) It often feels like there is more time not watching baseball then actually seeing the sport. (I must see five Lee Johnson Mazda ads per game. ) I feel like I know the advertising jingles better than the players. The playoffs (not that Mariners fans would know) are even worse. The games can easily last four hours, and the networks broadcasting them try to cram as many ads as possible in. It ruins what could be an exciting playoff system. Instead of the broadcast amplifying the tension and drama of the game it does the opposite by cutting away and showing promos for some new sitcom.

With all of this downtime one of the main things to do, while you watch Kyle Seager take another strike two, is listen to the commentators talk about how great Kyle Seager is and how he is really going to come out of his slump soon, maybe right now. The Mariners broadcast can be unctuous. They pride themselves on being fans, but they fail to call out the bad play or decisions the team has continued to make for 15 years (I won’t hold 2002 or 2003 against them.) for a team that wasn’t so laughably inept it would be acceptable, but the Mariners are one of the most consistently bad teams in the major American sports leagues. They hold longest active streaks for missing the playoffs. If they played in another market with more media coverage nationally they would be a laughing stock, instead they are just irrelevant. The announcers need to be able to admit the reality the fans are watching.

I may sound bitter or mad, but I am not. I am just realistic about what the sport and my home team have become for me. I don’t think I am leaving on bad terms. I have filled my summer evening with other hobbies and I am sure we will still see each other from time to time. The Mariner’s home field is still beautiful and hard to resist on a nice summer evening. Sitting on the first base side of the stands and looking out over the left field bleachers as the sun sets is special. I also don’t expect other diehards to follow my lead or even agree with me. My experience of falling out with baseball is personal. Baseball holds a special place in the hearts and minds of many people. It is nearly synonymous with summer for some fans. It was this way for me once, but not anymore.

Baseball I don’t love you anymore.

Patriots Win a Super Bowl No One Will Remember

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Mon, 04 Feb 2019 04:32:00 +0000

The Patriots just won Super Bowl LIII 13-3 over the Rams. It was probably the most boring Super Bowl in my life time. It was definitely the least memorable. I can't think of an NFL championship game in the last 20 years that had so little of note happen. This isn't just a complaint about the low score. Low scoring games can be interesting if there are exciting defense plays or turnovers. Super Bowl LIII had none of those. There were two meaningless interceptions, five total sacks, and no fumbles. The game was basically incomplete passes and 2 yard runs.

The most memorable part was probably Todd Gurley not getting the ball. For some unknown reason the Rams decided to use C.J. Anderson just as much as Gurley (9 touches to 10). Although neither player did well. Anderson had 34 total yards and Gurley had 34.

The game won't even be remember for its winner. Unlike say Super Bowl 50, where the Broncos won a defensive shown down 24-10, there was no feel good story for the champion. The Patriots have won six Super Bowls now. They have won three of the last five NFL championship games. Additionally the Patriots biggest star, Tom Brady, had a mediocre game. He went 21 for 35 for 262 yards and no touchdowns. Nothing special about his performance. This one will just melt into the collective memory of the Patriots being good.

Super Bowl LIII was probably the most boring rendition of the game in the last 20 years.

The AFC is Broken

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Mon, 21 Jan 2019 05:25:00 +0000

The AFC’s competitive balance is embarrassing. For the eighth straight year the New England Patriots appeared in the AFC title game. For the third straight year the Patriots won that game and will appear in the Super Bowl. The AFC is broken.

This isn’t an NFL problem. The last three NFC teams to face the Patriots in the Super Bowl showed they can be beaten. The Philadelphia Eagles beat the Patriots. The Atlanta Falcons should have beat the Patriots. Instead they had an historic melt down. The Seattle Seahawks battled them to the last second only for an amazing defense play to bail out the Patriots. Eli Manning and the New York Giants beat the Patriots twice. Obviously the Patriots can be beaten.

Bill Belichick is an amazing coach probably the best ever. Tom Brady is a good quarterback. However, Belichick has been coaching in New England for 19 years. Teams should be able to figure him out eventually. He does make mistakes and he never actually plays on the field. Tom Brady is 40 years old and completely immobile. He isn’t an MVP quality player anymore. The Patriots have a distinct advantage with these two men in the organization, but they aren’t invincible. They can be beaten.

The problem is the AFC. It is broken. The other 15 teams are unable to compete effectively against the Patriots in the playoffs. Some clicks and teams fall apart. It makes the AFC boring because you know the outcome before the season starts. Hopefully something fixes this hex soon otherwise we will be watching the same old show for another 5 or whenever Brady finally retires.

Thoughts on the Seahawks

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Tue, 11 Dec 2018 05:47:00 +0000

The Seattle Seahawks’ season has been a fairly typical one for a Pete Carroll coached team. They started out of the gate slow, kept every game close, built and identity and started really rolling in November and December. I haven’t had time to write an in depth thoughts on the team this year (life gets busy and blogging for fun gets pushed to the back burner.) So, instead of a bunch of longer more researched and crafted posts here is a list of my thoughts of the season thus far.

Pete Carroll truly is a defensive master mind. His team fired their d coordinator, lost four Ring of Honor caliber players (Sherman, Chancellor, Bennett, and Avril) during the off-season, have had two expected key contributors miss the majority of the season from injury (Wright, and Thomas) and yet still is playing at a very high level. This is probably his best coaching job ever in Seattle. He should get serious consideration for Coach of the Year.
Chris Carson is a Locomotive. When he runs he is full of power and always gets positive yards. The guy never goes down without a fight. He is tons of fun to watch and a great running back for the Seahawks brand of football. I do worry about his style of running leading to a short playing career, even by running back standards. Carson takes a lot of contact and often gets gang tackled. Both usually lead to injuries. But while he healthy and here in Seattle I love watching him play.
Tyler Lockett has become the big play guy. I questioned the teams decision to pay him this last offseason. He has delivered in 2018. He has 9 TD in 13 games. He makes acrobatic catches and bails out Wilson at least once a game. The team was right to pay him.
Russell Wilson is good but not great. He has struggled at critical points this year. He continues to hold the ball too long and doesn’t throw it away when he should. He needs to use his legs as an offensive weapon and run more. That said he throws a beautiful deep ball. At least once a game he puts one deep right where a receiver can snag it. He is calm and collected and doesn’t let mistakes phase him. He is probably the sixth or seventh best QB in the league. He has a new contract coming up soon and the team needs to pay him. They also need to realize his limitations and paying him accordingly. They should not handicap themselves with a massive contract that keeps them from getting the rest of the roster filled. He isn’t Tom Brady or Drew Brees. He can’t win a Super Bowl on his own.
D.J. Fluker is the offensive MVP for Seattle. As soon as he came back in week three the team started running and running with authority. When you watch a run you can see his presence. He is a bull dozer out there. He just flattens defenders and makes way. He is probably the best lineman signing of Pete Carroll’s tenure. I wish he was younger and healthy so he could demolish D lines for the next ten years.
The team’s starting cornerbacks are young and talented. The Legion of Boom May be gone but Tre Flowers and Shaquill Griffin could be starting something special. They are both fast and cover well. There have definitely been growing pains. Both players have been burned. Both have gotten tagged for critical penalties. Those are things that should get better as they both get experience. Next year those two guys could be amazing.

The AL West is Too Good

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Sat, 28 Jul 2018 03:10:00 +0000

After 14 years of futility and mediocre to bad baseball the Mariner’s are finally having a good season. They are 61-41, 20 games over .500. The team is on pace for 97 wins and that should surely mean a post season appearance. Everything should be good in Seattle baseball, except for the freaking Oakland A’s.

The A’s have won 7 of their last 9 and in July they have gone 15 and 5. The team is on a crazy good run and has catapulted up the standings. They are only 1 game back of the M’s and are threatening to cruise right past them. It is like a repeat of 2002 all over again.

What the hell?! We already suffered through missing the playoffs with 90+ wins, twice (2002 nd 2003.) Can’t the M’s finally catch a break? The team has served their time. They have changed their approach and signed good young players. They have a great mix of veterans and club controlled players. They can hit and pitch well enough (9th in team wRC+ and 14th in team ERA) and they are scrappy. They have one of the best closers in baseball. This should be their year. They should be fighting for a division title. Not battling to hang onto the second wild card.

Instead they are stuck in second place behind the best team in the majors (the Astros are 1st in team ERA and 2nd in team wRC+) and barely in the second wild card spot because between them the Yankees and Red Soxes have essentially locked down the first wild card. This could be another year that the Mariners win 90+ and miss the playoffs because the AL West is too good yet again.

The Sounders’ Offense is Broken and Needs Help

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Fri, 15 Jun 2018 01:09:00 +0000

The Sounder's offense is pathetic. They are just downright bad. The team has scored 10 goals in 13 games. They have been shut out eight times this year. They are third to last in the Western Conference standings (somehow San Jose and Colorado are doing worse.) Watching the team play it is obvious that they just don't have the skill required to create, let alone convert, scoring chances. The Sounders are in desperate need of offensive help. What the team really needs is a player like Chad Barret or Obafemi Martins.

During his two years in Seattle Barrett scored 12 goals, while averaging about 36 minutes per game. Barrett's role on the team was to sub in late and bring an intense energy to the attack and he did exactly that. Whenever Barrett substituted into a game you knew that he was going to find the ball and make things difficult on the opposition. He was a player that truly sparked an offense with his arrival.

The Sounders current roster doesn't have anyone like that. There most frequently go to is Lamar Neagle who doesn't bring confidence to any fan when he enters the game. He has managed one shot on goal in 109 minutes this year. Usually the Sounder's late subs disappear into the fray. You essential forget they are even out there. The Sounders need someone they can bring into a close game late that will harass the opposing defense and motivate the rest of the squad. They need someone that can elevate their game with their energetic presence. They need a player like Chad Barrett.

Probably the most creative and talented offensive player the Sounders have ever had was Obafemi Martins. The Nigerian player was able to execute brilliant inventive moves to beat defenders regularly. He scored at a highly efficient rate and powered the Sounders attack to amazing heights. His partnership with Clint Dempsey was magical. He was able to anticipate and read Dempsey like they had been playing together since grade school.

The Sounders could obviously use a player like Martins, every team in the league could, but his kind of talent is special and rare. More realistically what they need is a player with creativity and ball skills in the vein of Oba. They need someone that can dribble at a defender head on and beat them once and a while. They need someone that can instinctively know when to shoot from a crazy angle and when to flick it on for someone else to score. The current roster just has no one that can create . They have no one that can dribble past a defender. They rely entirely on crossing and earning free kicks. The Sounders offense needs someone like Obafemi Martins.

The Sounders’ current offense is broken. They lack the energy and talent to create scoring chances. The team needs different players to improve the attack. They need a player that can ignite an attack late and force a tired opposing defense into mistakes. They need a player with creativity and ball skills that can attack the center of the defense. They need a player like a and Barrett or Obafemi Martins, or even better both.

The Seahawk's Drafts have Regressed to a More Sustainable Level

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Mon, 07 May 2018 00:25:00 +0000

Recently a lot of people have been criticizing the Seahawks last four drafts. They point to the failure of the team to draft any regular Pro-Bowlers or even regular starters. They hold 2010-2012 up as the standard for the team. Those years were amazing. They drafted 14 players that would significantly contribute (defined by my subjective opinion) to the team. The results set an impossible standard that we shouldn't judge them against.

The Seattle Times did a good job breaking down some of the reasons why the results of the Seahawk's drafts have gotten worse. Probably the most important reason was what The Times called regression to the mean. To summarize basically no teams are ever consistently good at drafting. They may have a few good drafts, but it is mostly luck. Teams just can't consistent determine which players will succeed and which will fail. The Seahawks got really lucky over 2010-2012. No team can consistently draft huge numbers of starters year after year.

The Seahawk's recentdrafts (2016 excluded) aren't as terrible as people seem to say. They have picked players that contribute, just at closer to two a year instead of four or five. The team's current struggles aren't because of bad drafting as much as injuries and natural aging of their stars. The team has picked quality players, just not at the crazy rate of 2010-2012.

To highlight these impact players let's start in 2013 and work our way through all the drafts up to 2016. I am going to include 2017 because those players have only had one professional year and it is early to judge them, although I think it has a lot of promise with Naz Jones, Shaquill Griffin, Chris Carson, and Ethan Pocic.

First up is 2013, which will always be remember for the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl and not for who they drafted. This year the Seahawks picked eleven players, including four in the seventh round. The Seahawks did draft Christine Michael in the second round. The running back was shock to many when he was drafted and ended up a big disappointment during his tenure with the Seahawks. The two players that have had the biggest positive impact on the team are Jordan Hill and Luke Willson.

Jordan Hill was definitely never a star for the team, but he did play an important role. His promising rookie season was cut short because of injury. 2014 was a good season for the big defensive tackle. He recorded 5.5 sacks and played in 13 games for a team that would make it to the Super Bowl for the second year in a row. Hill played one more adequate year in Seattle before moving on to Jacksonville.

Over his five year career with the Seahawks Luke Willson players in 72 of the possible 80 games. Although he was never a big threat in the passing game he did often produce when called upon. The whole time he was in Seattle Willson was stuck behind Jimmy Graham on the depth chart. Although not his fault this definitely suppressed his stats.

The next draft to review is 2014. This year the team drafted nine players. Three of these men have had noteworthy careers with Seattle, Paul Richardson, Justin Britt, and Cassius Marsh.

Richardson show a lot of potential at wide receiver, but he struggled to stay healthy. He has blazing fast speed, that should let him get separation downfield. It took him until last year, 2017, when he gained 703 yards and caught 6 touchdowns to put it all together. Richardson won't be in the Ring of Honor, but he wasn't a busted draft pick.

Since he was drafted Justin Britt has started 63 of a possible 64 games. He was frustrating to watch his first couple of seasons, but he has since turned a corner. Last year Britt was the best offensive lineman for the Seahawks. His play at center was the only position that was even adequate until the arrival of Duane Brown.

It might be a surprise to some people that I included Cassius Marsh as an impact player. His stats certainly don't paint him to be one. However in 2015 and 2016 Marsh was a regular in the defensive line rotation and provided quality play when he was on the field. He pressured the quarterback and took up blockers allowing other players to make tackles. Marsh was by no means a super star, but he was a solid contributor for the Seahawks for two seasons before being traded to the Patriots.

2015 landed the Seahawks two impact players out of the eight they drafted. Interestingly 2015 was the third year in a row the Seahawks didn't draft in the first round. It has led to a running joke in Seattle about the Seahawks brass preferring seventh rounders over first rounders. Anyways, the two players of note from 2015 were Frank Clark and Tyler Lockett.

Whether or not you like Frank Clark as a person he has been a net positive on the football field for the Seahawks. After getting used to the NFL in 2015, Clark has recorded 19 sacks over the last two seasons. There are games when he disappears, which is frustrating, but overall Clark gets pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Tyler Lockett had a truly exciting rookie campaign. He gained 664 yards receiving and caught 6 touchdowns. He started to develop a real chemistry with quarterback Russell Wilson. Lockett was even better in the return game. He returned a punt and a kickoff for a touchdown. To recognize his achievements he made the Pro-Bowl has a returner. Unfortunately Lockett hasn't been able to repeat the feats of his rookie year. His average punt return yards shrank in each consecutive season and he has never taken his receiving to the next level. Even so, Lockett is still a good and young player.

As I mentioned above 2016 was the one exception to my argument that the Seahawks drafts haven't been that bad. 2016 was essentially a complete miss for the team. They drafted 10 players, including Germain Ifedi, their first first round selection since 2012. Despite the large number of picks and the high rounds, the Seahawks just were unable to find quality players. Alex Collins appears he might be a good NFL running back, but the Seahawks cut him and now he plays for the Ravens. The one guy that I would count as a positive impact for team is Jarran Reed. He has played a very solid defensive tackle for the Seahawks in 30 of 32 possible games. He is definitely a contributing member of the rotation and is able to record tackles and assist on others at a satisfactory rate.

Between 2010 and 2012 the Seahawks set a standard for the quality of their drafts that is impossible for them to repeat. Even the most brilliant football minds of all time would struggle to replicate the amount of talent the Seahawks snagged over those three years. The team's subsequent drafts have looked bad by comparison, but in reality they are passable. That isn't to say there haven't been mistakes (see Christine Michael), but there have also been successes. The Seahawk's Front Office isn't bad at drafting now, they are just doing it at a more sustainable level of quality.

Drafting Running Backs

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Tue, 01 May 2018 03:37:00 +0000

On Wednesday afternoon on 950 KJR Softy Mahler was talking about all the quality college running backs that are available in the NFL draft this year. That got me thinking about the success NFL teams actually have in drafting rushers. Over the last several years the conventional wisdom has settled on the idea that only the most outstanding can't miss running backs should ever be taken first round of the draft and even those guys should probably be in the second round. The reason being the position is very dependent on the play calling of the coaches and the blocking of the offensive linemen. Very few athletes are able to be game changers without a high quality group of linemen in front of them. So teams should focus on blockers and then find someone to run behind them. Additionally running back is a position with high risk of injury so investing a lot of resources into the position doesn't have a high enough potential return. I wanted to know if this thinking is actually playing out with the players being drafted at running back. Then on Thursday the Seahawks went and took Rashaad Penny from San Diego State University with the 27th pick of the first round and I really had to know.

During the five seasons between 2013 and 2017 there were 54 instances where an individual player rushed for 1000 or more yards (see Figure 1). 34 different players recorded one of those 54 seasons. The distribution of the round the player was drafted in looked pretty conventional with the 1st round being the most common followed by the second round and so on. Figure 1 shows the distribution. Interesting there were 4 seasons where a player that recorded 1000 yards rushing was an undrafted free agent. C.J. Anderson, LeGarrette Blount, Chris Ivory, and Arian Foster are the four men that achieved this feat. This data points towards that conclusion that a player that records a 1000 yard season is more likely to have been drafted highly. However, this doesn't tell the whole story. If there are just a few highly skilled first rounders continuously racking up big yardage seasons it would skew he data. It could be that a high percentage of 1st rounders never pan out then actually perform well in the NFL.

Figure 1: Running Backs to rush for 1000 yards are more likely to have been drafted in the earlier rounds.

I looked at all the running backs drafted between 2013 and 2017. A total of 122 running backs were drafted over the course of the five drafts. On average 24 running backs were taken in the draft. The high was 2017 when 30 running backs were taken and the low was 2014 when only 21 were taken. Assuming that each player has had a chance to achieve 1000 yards equal to the number of seasons that have happened since they were drafted there have been 356 possible 1000 yard season. Realistically not every player has a chance at 1000 yards because they can't all start. So if we assume there are 32 possible 1000 yard seasons each year, one for each team, there were 160 possible chances. Of all these chances a running back drafted between 2013 and 2017 has recorded a 1000 yard season 19 times. 13 unique players achieved this feat. Additionally there were 16 Pro-Bowl appearances by 12 of those players over this time.

There is a pretty consistent trend of the percentage of 1000 yard seasons and 160 carry seasons achieved compared to possible chances. Players grouped by the year they were drafted hold the percentages in a narrow band (See Figure 2). For 1000 yards seasons it goes from 4-10% and gets lower the long ago that the draft took place. This makes sense considering those players drafted in 2013 have had much longer to get cut, hurt, or retire than those drafted last year. For 160 carry seasons the data sits between 12-17%. It spikes in the middle and is low in 2013 and 2017. Again this makes sense as players from 2017 have most likely not established themselves yet to earn all those carries nd players from 2013 have been cut, hurt, or retired.

Figure 2: The percentage of times a running back achieved a milestone in all the possible chances.

In both 2013 and 2014 no running backs were taken in the first round. Between 2015 and 2017 five running backs were taken in the first round. They were Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley, and Melvin Gordon. Of these five men only McCaffrey has not yet recorded a 1000 yard rushing season. He is also the only player to not get at least 160 rushing attempts each season. In his only season McCaffrey rushed 117 times for 435 yards.

For the five drafts I reviewed 13 running backs were selected in the second round. They have a much more spotty record than the first rounders. Le'Veon Bell leads the group with three Pro-Bowl seasons in five chances. Bell is widely regarded as one of the most talented running backs in the NFL. There are also two very notable busts in Montee Ball and Bishop Sankey. Neither player ever recorded 160 or more carries in a season and both topped out around 550 rushing yards gained in a season. Another interesting second rounder is Christine Michael, who was drafted by the Seahawks in 2013. At the time I was confused by the pick because Michael had a limited playing history in college. It seemed to be a real reach pick. Although Michael never had a good season in the NFL, he never rushed 160 times or gained over 600 yards rushing, he has managed to stick around. He played in four seasons and is still on the Colts roster. Somehow Michael's time in the NFL just doesn't want to end.

If for each round you sum up all the times that a player drafted reached 1000 yards rushing, carried the ball at least 160 times, or made a Pro-Bowl, it becomes obvious that players drafted in earlier rounds are more likely to reach these milestones. The first and second rounds are the highest totals for all three metrics (see Figure 3). The second round looks better by count, but that is because more players were drafted, 47 compared to 10, so they had more opportunities than first rounders. To try and account for this looked at the percentage of times a player reached these milestones compared to the available opportunities.

Figure 3: Running backs selected in the first round achieved a milestone at a much higher rate than those drafted in other rounds.

For 1000 yard rushers the first rounders reached the yardage 50% of the available time. For second rounders is was only 13%. For rounds three and below it topped out at 5%. Basically if a running back is drafted in the first round they are much more likely to rush for a 1000 yard season than someone drafted in the second round and extremely more likely than someone in the third through seventh rounds.

Another metric to consider if someone is a productive NFL running back is the number of carries they get during a season. 160 carries means they averaged 10 per game. Looking at this metric by round shows a similar picture. Rushers drafted in the first round reached 160 attempts 90% of the possible opportunities. Second rounders only achieved this 38% of the time, while later round players maxed out at 12%.

For Pro-Bowl appearances the percentages are in line with the other metrics. First rounders were selected to the Pro-Bowl 40% of opportunities compared to at most 9% for the other rounds. Le'Veon Bell and Devonte Freeman made up 5 of the 12 Pro-Bowl selection for later round players.

Admittedly the percentages for first rounders should be way higher because the number of players is much smaller, so one great player can have a larger impact. For example there were 46 running backs taken in the sixth and seventh rounds, and only Latavius Murray has made a Pro-Bowl or rushed for 1000 yards. Also players drafted in those rounds are expected to bust more frequently because teams don't evaluate them as worthy of a higher pick. The teams drafting them don't expect much by taking them so low. It can also be argued that if first round players truly did bust at a higher than normal rate we should see the percentages drop and be much closer to the other round, which we don’t see. Instead we see the opposite. Players taken in the first two rounds have much higher percentages of successful seasons as measured by 1000 yards gained rushing, 160 rushing attempts, and Pro-Bowl selections.

Looking at all these stats doesn't disprove the conventional wisdom that NFL teams shouldn't draft running backs in the first round unless they are a generational talent, but it does make me question it more. Of the ten players taken in the first round only one hasn't reached the 1000 mark in a season yet, and he has only played one season. It is possible that all ten first round backs were exceptional generational talents, but it seems unlikely ten of these players would have shown up in five years. Those taken in the second round of the NFL are also generally very productive. So if a team is confident that a player is capable of making it in the NFL they should spend the pick. They have a good track record of evaluating college rushers and drafting accordingly.

Sources: Pro Football Reference

Someone is Going to Score Eventually

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Wed, 04 Apr 2018 03:07:00 +0000

With the Sounders current scoring drought, they have failed to score a goal in all three 2018 MLS matches, I decided to looked back at the team's leading scorer each of their nine seasons. The table is an interesting one. All of the names on it are iconic members of the Sounders short but highlight filled history. Two main things stood out to me, the 2013 scoring leader was very low and Obafemi Martins was very good.

The Leading Scorer for the Seattle Sounders for Each Year of Their Existence

It wasn't that the Sounders struggled to score goals in 2013. They scored 42 goals in 34 regular season games, amounting to 1.24 goals per game. That is a bit low, but not terrible. For comparison's sake last year's squad scored 52 goals and the 2016 team scored 44 goals. In 2017 Sporting KC scored 42 goals, ranking them 7th of 10 in that category. The thing about 2013 was no one player really pulled away and did anything special.

Eddie Johnson scored 9 goals in 21 games, which is equivalent to 14.5 over a 3 game season. That is a solid number for a complete season. Obafemi Martins and Lamar Neagle both scored 8 goals. All told the Sounders had 11 players score at least one goal in 2013. Really what prevented anyone from scoring double digit goals was the lack of consistency on the pitch. The Sounders only had three players appear in 30 (90%) of their MLS matches. 2013 just didn't produce any kind of special memorable goal scorers.

When it comes to goal scoring players 2014 and 2015 were completely unlike 2013. Obafemi Martins dominated the league. In 2015 he scored a ridiculous 15 goals in only 21 games played. That is a rate of .71 goals per game or equivalent to scoring 24 goals over a 34 game season. That is how many goals league leader Nemanja Nikolic scored for Chicago last season (and he played in all 34 games coincidently).

Another way to look at Martins' scoring prowess is his scoring percentage (the number of goals scored over all the shots taken). In 2015 Martins took only 42 shots to score his 15 goals, which is an even crazier 35% success rate. For comparison last year Nikolic took 118 shots to score his 24 goals, meaning he scored only 20% of the time he shot.

Martins 2014 season was also incredible. He scored 17 goals and also notched up another 13 assists. He was talked about for league MVP, although didn't end up winning the award. On the field Martins partnered beautifully with forward Clint Dempsey, who scored 15 goals and assisted on another 10. The Sounders used this powerful attack to capture the Supporters Shield, given to the team with the best regular season point total.

Looking at the Sounders top goal scorer in each of their MLS seasons reminds us that they will score a goal this year. They might not (probably won't) have a prolific scorer such as 2014 or 2015 Obafemi Martins when the year finishes, but someone will score goals. Even in 2013 when no one player dominated the goal scoring table the team managed to score 42 goals over their 34 games.

Sources: MLSSoccer.com

2014: Close but No Cigar for Robinson Cano

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Thu, 29 Mar 2018 01:45:00 +0000

Coming off the dismal four season stretch of 2010-2013 the Mariners decided to just go huge during the 2014 offseason and sign Robinson Cano to a 10 year $240 million contract. The final verdict of this contract has still not been decided and won't be until 2023. One thing was for sure though, the Mariners weren't messing around in 2014. They were willing to spend money to bring the best players to Seattle and try to make the playoffs for the first time in twelve years.

https://www.gq.com/story/robinson-cano-seattle-mariners

Cano's 2014 season was a success. He hit .314/.382/.454. That made him the first Mariner to bat over .300 since Ichiro in 2010. He tied with Jose Altuve for the highest wRC+among major league second basemen at 137 (17th best among all players). His 14 home runs were a disappointing low for the second baseman's career (tied for his career worst), but were still the third most by any Mariner in 2014. All and all it was a very good year for the Mariners $240 million man.

Robbie wasn't the only Mariner to have a good 2014. Overall the team's pitching staff had an amazing 3.17 ERA. The starting pitchers did especially well, with Felix Hernandez standing out the most.

Felix Hernandez's 2014 season is his best season to date. He completely dominate the AL. In 34 starts he pitched 236 innings and gave up only 56 earned runs, equal to a 2.14 ERA. He struck out 248 batter and walked only 46 for a crazy good 5.39 strikeout to walk ratio. Felix's changeup was essentially unhittable in 2014. Opposing batter's hit a dismal .197 against Felix. It felt like he was trying to single handedly drag the Mariners into the playoffs. Yet somehow despite all this Felix lost out on the Cy Young award to Corey Kluber, who had more wins, more strikeouts, and fewer wild pitches than Felix.

Starting pitchers Hasashi Iwakuma, Roenis Elias, James Paxton and Chris Young also had good years for the M's. All of their ERAs were under 4.00 and only Elias had a losing record. Young had an interesting stat line because his ERA was a respectable 3.65, but his FIP was a high 5.02, implying he recorded better results than were to be expected. However, upon further examination this appears to just have been Chris Young's style. Every year of his 13 year career except 2005 and 2017 he managed to pull off this feat.

In addition to the starters, the pitching at the end of games was clutch for the Mariners. 37 year old veteran reliever Fernando Rodney signed with the team in the offseason and did an excellent job in the closer role. He saved 48 games in 51 chances, he struck out 76 batters in 66.33 innings, his hat was greatly misaligned and for all this he was awarded with an All-star appearance and much love from the Safeco field fans. Rodney's arrow celebration was a big hit and something to look forward to as the team closed out another win.

In his sixth and final season with the team outfielder Michael Saunders looked like he was finally putting it all together at the plate, batting .273 with a .341 OBP in 231 AB. Unfortunately for Saunders it was injury plagued once again. This inability to stay healthy and on the field was a constant during Saunders tenure with the club. During the offseason the Mariners front office grew tired of the nagging injuries holding Saunders back and flipped him to Toronto.

The Mariners finished the season 87-75, their best finish since 2007. Even more frustrating for fans they finished in 6th place in the AL, just one game behind the Oakland Athletics for the final wild card spot. Although it wasn't the only reason the M's missed the playoffs, a five game losing streak between September 20th-24th really hurt them (as did the other 70 losses). They gave up 43 runs over those five games and only scored 10. They didn't end the season with a four game winning streak, but it wasn't enough to overcome the damage done to the standing with the previous skid. The addition of Cano and the stellar pitching by Hernandez and company still wasn't quite enough to get them into the playoffs and the drought continued.

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference

2012-2013: Two more Years of Bad Offense and Great Felix

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Sat, 24 Mar 2018 03:02:00 +0000

Another two years and another two terrible offenses. In both 2012 and 2013 the Mariners failed to have a player hit better than .280, making it four straight years. This is quite an impressively bad achievement. This utterly bad offense resulted in two more losing seasons. In 2012 the team went 75-87. They followed that up in 2013 with a 71-91 record.

One interesting anomaly of a stat in 2013 was the Mariners ability to hit homeruns. They were second in the AL with 188, despite being second to last in total hits. This quirk resulted in the Mariners still failing to score runs because nobody was ever on base when the ball left the yard.

2012 saw some very large and important roster moves. The biggest being the trade of Ichiro to the New York Yankees on July 23rd 2012. It looked like the end of the road for Ichiro, who was having another sub-par season. His triple slash for the Mariners was only .261/.288/.353. Yet somehow Ichiro has managed to bounce around the league for another four seasons and is now back with the Mariners (and may start on opening day if people don't get healthy). Ichiro was a truly great players for the Mariners for twelve years. He made ten straight All-star teams to start his career. It was sad to see the end come (for the first time), but it was the right move for the Mariners.

Another big move was the trade of Michael Pineda to the Yankees for Jesus Montero. This trade happened during the offseason and appeared that it was filling a weak spot for both teams. The Yankees got up and coming pitcher Michael Pineda. After a strong rookie season, the young man looked set to be future star. Unfortunately he got hurt and didn't pitch in the big leagues again until 2014. The Mariners got Jesus Montero, who was billed as a sure-thing hitter. He was a slow as mud catcher, but everyone was so sure about his bat that they assumed he would slide into DH. Montero was a failure for the Mariners. Looking back this trade turned out to be a huge disappointment for both teams.

The final big move of 2012 was the signing of Hisashi Iwakuma. The pitcher came to the Mariners from Japan at age 31. In the NPB he had put together a great career, but it is never a sure thing if it will translate in the MLB. Iwakuma proved any doubters wrong by pitching great in 2012 and even better in 2013. He pitched so well in 2013 that he finished third in the Cy Young voting.

2012 and 2013 also saw Kyle Seager cement himself at third base for the M's. In 2012 he hit .259 with 20 HR and 35 2B. In 2013 Seager hit .260 with 22 HR and 32 2B. His wRC+ in these years were 108 and 116 respectively. Both of these years, while not stellar, were of major league quality, something the Mariners sorely lacked in the early 2010's. The Mariners front office and marketing staff were quick to jump on this new not terrible player and started marketing him.

Felix Hernandez continued his stretch of dominating the AL and had another two great seasons. In 2012 he had a 3.06 ERA, 223 K, 56 BB in 232 innings pitched. In 2013 he had a 3.04 ERA, 216 K, 46 BB in 204.33 innings pitched. King Felix made the All-star team both years. It is still a sad fact to look back and see how amazing Felix was and how bad his teams where that wasted his talent.

Brendan Ryan pulled off an impressive feat for the Mariners in 2012. The shortstop had signed with the team in 2011 and put together an acceptable season at the plate, especially considering his amazing defense. Then in 2012 his hitting completely fell apart. He hit .194 with only a .278 slugging percentage. Yet because of his defensive prowess Ryan managed to record a positive 3.4 wins above replacement (WAR) according to Baseball Reference. This was tied for the third highest WAR on the whole team and tied for first with John Jaso for the highest position player. Think about that, Ryan's defense was so valuable to the Mariners that it overcame a .194 batting average. Unfortunately for Ryan his hitting remained terrible in 2013 and his defense dropped off. The Mariners traded him to the New York Yankees for a PTBNL.

I want to mention one more interesting thing that happened in 2012. On June 8th 2012 the Mariner's pitchers threw a combined no hitter to beat the LA Dodgers 1-0. The score was super apropos because of how terrible the Mariners offense was. The Mariners used six pitchers. Kevin Millwood started the game and went six innings. Charlie Furbush, Stephen Pryor, Lucas Luetge, Brandon League, and Tom Wilhelmsen each pitched in relief. Stephen Pryor, who pitched the worst with 2 BB and only 1 out, earned the win. It was a crazy game.

2012 and 2013 were a pair of disappointing seasons because the teams still couldn't hit a lick. They were just terrible at hitting. It was even more unbearable because Seattle hadn't just suffered through 2010 and 2011, two of the worst offensive seasons since the 70's. The bad baseball drove frequent movement of players. The biggest departure was Ichiro, one of the greatest players in Mariners history. If it hadn't been for the great pitching of Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma there would have been no reason to watch in 2012 and 2013.

Sources: Baseball Reference, Fangraphs

2011: If You Thought 2010 was Bad Let Me Introduce You to 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Sat, 17 Mar 2018 03:26:00 +0000

2011 felt a lot like 2010. It was another terrible season for the Seattle Mariners. They lost 95 games, primarily because their offense was historically bad, yet again. Nobody on the team, with at least 20 AB, had a batting average over .280. Let that sink in. Nobody with any significant playing time hit over .280. Mike Carp had the highest batting average of those players at .276. Because no one was getting on base the team scored only 556 runs, the second straight year under 600 runs. Not only could the team not get on base they also couldn't hit for power. The team leader for HR was Miguel Olivo with only 19.

Probably the statistic that best shows how bad the M's were in 2011 was ratio of strikeouts to walks. The team struck out 2.94 times for each walk they drew. To pull off such an embarrassing result the team led the American League in strikeouts and was last place for base on balls. The team had more strikeouts than hits. No other team in the American League managed to do this.

Additionally the Mariners had the fourth oldest team in the American League with an average age of 29.4 years old. So, it wasn't like this was a bunch of young pups just breaking into the big leagues. They were a team of has-beens on their last legs. There were very few hopes for the future, only 8 of 26 position players to appear in a game were 25 or younger. It was a truly pitiful team of hitters.

Mariners star outfielder Ichiro Suzuki had a remarkable season, but for bad reasons. It was his age 34 season and he looked it. It was the first time he ever got less than 200 hits in a major league season and he wasn't injured. He played 161 games. The former star batted only .272 and had a low .310 OBP. With his mediocre stats it was the first time in his career he missed the All-Star game.

After a bad first season with the Mariners Chone Figgins started off his second year strong. He hit a homerun in the very first game. Sadly that was the end of the good times for Figgins. He didn't hit another homer all year and only hit an abysmal .188 in 81 games. Figgins was so terrible that they put him on the DL in early August and left him there for the rest of the season.

Surprisingly 2011 did have some notable moments for position players that could be construed as positive. Two players of significance made their rookie debuts for the Mariners, former 2nd overall pick Dustin Ackley and future All-star third baseman Kyle Seager. Ackley led the team in batting average for qualified players with a .273 average. He also led the team in OBP with a .348. Unfortunately both were career high for the former second overall pick. Although much less touted than Ackley at the time, Big Booty Seags managed to hit .258 in 53 games. Of the two players Seager would go on to have a much better career (yep I am calling it now even though neither is technically retired). The two infielders were about the only bright spot the whole year.

On the pitching side of things 2011 was another successful year, as long as you don't look at wins and losses.

Rookie phenom Michael Pineda started 28 games and was stellar. He looked like he was going to be a major part of the Mariners future (note: he wasn't. Read the 2012 post to learn about his fate). Pineda ERA was 3.74 and he struck out 9.1 batters per nine innings pitched, a very good rate. The young gun was fun to watch pitch and a definite reason to tune into the games.

Another pitcher that did well for the Mariners was Doug Fister. Many fans never believed in Doug. He didn't ever flash dominate stuff and he didn't have the look of an ace. Old school fans saw his 3-12 record and pointed to it as proof he wasn't anything special. But Fister's ERA didn't lie. In 21 starts he recorded a 3.33 ERA with an even lower FIP at 3.27. Fister just knew how to get batters out.

Mid season, in an attempt to find hitters for the future, the Mariners decided to traded Fister to the Tigers. At the time I thought it was a bad trade and looking back it proved to be one. However one of the players the Mariners got in return, and the one that made the biggest impact with the team, was Charlie Furbush. So in case you had forgotten, in 2011 the Mariners traded Fister for Furbush. It is an awesome sounding trade to be sure.

The final thing worth mentioning about 2011 is King Felix's season. Coming off a Cy Young winning performance the Mariners decided to celebrate their star by creating the King's Court. The promotional event became an immediate fan favorite and lives on to this day. It has even gained national acclaim.

Felix's season didn't disappoint his loyal subjects in the court. He pitched 233.66 innings and struck out 222 batters. His K to BB ratio was especially impressive at 3.31. Finally his early sat at a very respectable 3.47. His best single game came on May 22nd against the San Diego Padres. Hernandez struck out 13 batters and walked none in 8 innings and only conceded 1 earned run. All this earned King Felix his second trip to the All-Star game. Overall a very good season.

Much like the season directly before it 2011 was one filled with terrible offense and good pitching. The Mariner's two year stretch of hitting over 2010-2011 may go down as one of the worst in MLB history. They scored under 600 runs in both seasons. 2011 was even more difficult to watch because former star outfielder Ichiro Suzuki was finally caught by age and struggled for the first time in his career. The season was basically a waste because most of the team was old and of the few young players that got opportunities only Kyle Seager ever amounted to anything. The pitching was good, with a team ERA of 3.90, but it wasn't good enough to overcome such a terrible offense.

Sources: Baseball Reference

2010: One of the Worst Seasons of All Time

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Sun, 04 Mar 2018 06:13:00 +0000

Coming off an exciting and unexpectedly mediocre 2009 season the Mariners looked to push into the playoffs in 2010. They made a big splash in the offseason acquiring starting pitcher Cliff Lee from the Philadelphia Phillies. The Mariners traded away Tyson Gillies, draft bust Phillippe Aumont, and J.C. Ramirez. Teaming up Lee with Felix Hernandez, Doug Fister, and Jason Vargas the team's top four starters were some of the best in the league. Unfortunately the team failed to improve their offense at all. Their only significant addition was Chone Figgins, who had a disastrous start to the season. The abysmal offense sunk the Mariners season and resulted in a 61-101 record, their second 100 loss season in three years.

The Mariners was amazingly bad. They scored only 513 runs the whole season, which was easily the worst in the AL. They were 100 runs worse than Baltimore Orioles who scored the second least. It was the least runs scored by an American League team since the strike shortened 1981 season. For a full season of games the Mariners 513 runs scored in 2010 was the least scored since 1971 when the California Angels scored 511 runs. Like I said 2010 was an epically bad baseball offense.

Here are some more stats to prove my point and make you hate 2010.

The Mariners had the least hits in the AL with only 1274.
They had the least HR in the AL with only 101.
The had the least doubles in the AL with only 227.
They had the second most strikeouts in the AL with 1184.
Only one player with at least 100 AB batted over .270.
The team leader in HR, Russell Branyan, had only 15 dingers.

Part of the problem with the team's offense was their DH. The Mariners brought back Ken Griffey Jr for one more year. Unfortunately the mind was willing but the body was not. The Kid hit .184 with no homers and 2 doubles in 33 games played. The season was such a complete failure that Griffey walked away from the game in the middle of the season. There was no warning about his retirement and just a written statement provided to the media via the team. The playing career of greatest player to ever wear a Mariners uniform came to an abrupt end in 2010. It was a fitting thing to happen in a season that was a complete failure in all things hitting.

As previously mentioned the Mariners only significant addition on offense was Chone Figgins. The former Angel was coming off an All-Star season where he hit .298/.395/.393 with 42 stolen bases. Preseason the commentators talked about the potential for two All-Star caliber men at the top of the order setting the table early and allowing the Mariners to jump out to big leads. Sadly this didn't happen.

Chone Figgins had one of the worst starts to a season of any Mariner ever. In March, April, an May he hit .211 (38/180) with 47 strikeouts and only 10 extra base hits (XHB) (9 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR). His slow start cemented his Mariners legacy as a failure. I can't think of a more hyped free agent signing with the Mariners that had such a miserable start. By the end of the 2010 season Figgins had managed to raise his average up to .259, but with a meager .306 slugging percentage it was still a disappointment. He achieved his impressively low SLG by only recording 24 XBH in over 600 AB.

If you recall from before the other big acquisition coming into the 2010 season was the trade for Cliff Lee. The starting pitcher performed as expected. As a Mariner Lee pitched in 13 games and 103.66 innings. His ERA was a low 2.34 and his FIP was even better at 2.16. All this success allowed the Mariners to trade Lee to the Rangers in July and bring Josh Lueke, Blake Beaven and Justin Smoak. It was the third time Cliff Lee was traded in a calendar year. For being such a stellar pitching talent it was pretty amazing turn of events.

The biggest and most heralded players the Mariners received for Lee was first baseman Justin Smoak. That is right, the 2010 saw the arrival of the Smoakamotive at Safeco field. In his first season with the team he played in 30 games and hit 5 HR. His overall performance wasn't impressive, but Mariners fans were hoping for big things from the South Carolinian and figured him to be an important part of the future. Everyone wanted to get on the train.

The most important and positive thing to happen in 2010 was Felix Hernandez. Despite going 13-12 on the season, not making the All-star team, and his team losing 101 games the Baseball Writers awarded King Felix with the 2010 Cy Young. It was well deserved. Hernandez struck out 232 batters. He posted a 2.27 ERA. He completed 6 of his 34 starts. Depending on how you grade it this was either the best or second best season of Hernandez's career (many would argue 2014 was even better). Felix was the one bright spot in an otherwise dismal season.

2010 is a season best forgotten to the sand of time. It was the fifth time in the franchise's history that the team lost over 100 games. It saw one of the worst offenses in baseball history take the diamond. There was a massive free agent bust and the ungraceful end of a legends career. There was only one bright spot during the whole season and that was the 34 times that Felix Hernandez was in the game.

Sources: Baseball Reference

The Perfect Use for Telestration

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Sat, 24 Feb 2018 20:26:00 +0000

First congratulations to John Shuster, Tyler George, Matt Hamilton, and John Landsteiner on winning men's curling gold in PyeongChang. They went on an epic and unlikely five game win streak to bring home the Olympic Championship. Second shame on NBC for missing a golden opportunity to use telestration.

Curling is a sport all about angles and ricochets. Players setup guards and leave stones placed so that they can block later shots during an end. To remove these stones the players try for doubles, where they use a single throw to bounce one stone off two of the opponents.

During the gold medal game broadcast the NBC announcers frequently used words to describe what the players on the ice were thinking about attempting. They described the hits and resulting movement of the stones that teams were planning to attempt. Never once during the broadcast did they use telestration to illustrate the concepts. This circumstance screamed for pictures to describe what those of us not intimately involved with the game of curling had trouble understanding or visualizing.

The cheesiness of telestration's use during Monday Night Football would not have been duplicated here. Instead a clear picture of what players were attempting to achieve could have been drawn right in front of us. They could have easily used arrows to show where the stones should hit and the intended result. The failure to do this was a big mis by the NBC production and broadcast team.

Adam Rippon Got Robbed!

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Tue, 13 Feb 2018 03:26:00 +0000

I don't care what the rules say. I don't care what the experts and judges say. Adam Rippon was robbed during the Men's Free Skate Team Competition. He should have won that event. The USA should have gotten first place and ten points. There is no way that some stoic Russian 12 year old that falls on his ass twice deserves a higher score than Rippon. There is no way that some ancient Canadian who under rotated on one jump and fell on another deserved a higher score than Rippon. All you had to do was watch the event to know that Rippon was the best. If the rules say that those other guys did better than Rippon than the rules are wrong and need to be changed. Adam Rippon was the best man on the ice during the Team Men's Free skate.

2009: The Team Show Defense can Win Games

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Fri, 09 Feb 2018 04:58:00 +0000

2009 was the year of Ken Griffey's return to a Mariners uniform. I remember the season fondly. For many people the lasting image of the season is Ichiro and Griffey being carried off the field on their teammates shoulders at the end of the season. He didn't help them make the playoffs, and he really wasn't that good of a hitter, but having Junior back in Seattle was something special and intangibly good.

Like a mentioned that Mariners failed to make the playoffs in 2009, just like they had the seven years before and have the eight years since. The team did improve to 85 wins though. That total was carried almost entirely by their pitching and defense. The team ERA was the lowest in the American league (AL) at 3.87. The batters still couldn’t hit a lick. The team scored the fewest runs in the American League with only 640, which was 275 less than the New York Yankees.

The teams pitcher's benefited greatly from the defense stealing away would be base hits. The outfield featured stellar play from Ichiro and Franklin Gutierrez. Adrian Beltre was still holding down the hot corner. Because the voting for the Golden Gloves is terribly flawed only Ichiro was awarded in 2009, but both Beltre and Gutierrez deserved recognition. This stellar defense is highlight by the large difference between the pitchers ERA of 3.87 and FIP of 4.39 (Fielding Independent Pitching is a measure of expected ERA based on BB, HBP, HR and K), which was 11th best in the AL.

The best pitcher on the 2009 Mariners was King Felix, who went 19-5 with 2.49 ERA and 217 K in 238.66 innings pitched. The season marked the start of a nine year stretch where Felix would strikeout at least 200 opposing batters. It is also Felix's highest win total in a season to date. This dominate performance on the mound got Felix his first All-Star appearance and he finished 2nd in the AL Cy Young Award voting to Zach Greinke (this was completely understandable because Greinke had a lower ERA, and more strikeouts). Basically what you should take away from all this is Felix Hernandez was really freaking good in 2009.

The season brought another new closer to Seattle. This time it was David Aardsma, whose biggest claim to fame is alphabetically. He is first in the record books, directly ahead of Hank Aaron. Aardsma was dominate for the Mariners in 2009. He struck out 80 batters in 71.33 IP, which equates to 10.1 batters per nine innings. He converted 28 of 42 chances for saves. Aardsma was basically automatic for the Mariners in the ninth inning, which really helped the offensively inept team win games.

The season also saw the debut of two starting pitcher, Doug Fister and Jason Vargas, that would go on to have strong if brief Mariners careers. Although they will never make the Mariners Hall of Fame, both will be remembered by fans.

As previously mentioned the Mariners offense was bad during 2009. They were last in the AL for runs scored. That said the team did feature some memorable performances at the plate. The most impressive was probably Russell Branyan who clubbed 31 home runs. He was the first Mariner to pass 30 HR since Richie Sexson in 2006. Branyan also hit 21 doubles brining his slugging percentage up to .520, the highest recorded by a Mariner since Richie Sexson in 2005. Despite all the extra base hits Branyan managed to record only 76 RBI, which highlights just how bad the team was at getting on base.

Pretty much the only guy good at getting on base in 2009 was Ichiro who batted .352 and had an on base percentage (OBP) of .386. It was yet another great year for Ichiro and yet another year that fans and media members grumbled he wasn't doing enough because they were dumb.

At second base Jose Lopez had an interesting season. On the good side he drove in 96 runs and batted .272 hit 42 doubles and 35 homeruns. However on the bad side he walked only 24 times in 653 plate appearances and grounded into 25 double plays, the second most in the AL.

The final thing I want to mention is the addition of two J. Wilsons to the Mariners via trade. I am of course writing about Jack and Josh, no relation. The Mariners grabbed Josh off waivers from the Padres in June. They then traded Pittsburgh for Jack in July (the Mariners parted with former first rounder pick Jeff Clement in that trade). The Mariners acquired both shortstops in an attempt to try and find an improvement over Yuniesky Betancourt. Based solely on hitting it turned into basically a wash.

Depending how you look at it 2009 was either another missed opportunity for the Mariners or a surprising success. Based on their previous season and their run differential that team shouldn't have been any good. Instead because of clutch hitting, amazing defense, and shutdown pitching team managed to win 85 games.

Sources: Baseball Reference

2008: Erik Bedard Arrives in Seattle and Gets Everyone Fired.

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Mon, 29 Jan 2018 01:06:00 +0000

After winning 88 games in 2007 and appearing to be a team on the rise everything fell apart, yet again, in 2008. The club managed to lose 101 games, the first time over the century mark for losses since 1983. The manager, Jon McLaren, and the general manager, Bill Bavasi, both got the boot halfway through the season. The season is best remembered as an unmitigated disaster.

Looking back on 2008 the problems started before the season even started when the team decided to go all in for the post season. They traded away Adam Jones and Chris Tillman, plus three other players, to the Baltimore Orioles for starting pitcher Erik Bedard. This trade famously failed completely and totally for the Mariners. It is considered one of the worst trades in club history, and definitely the worst of anytime during the current drought.

Obviously hindsight is 20-20, but this trade looks extra bad upon review. Adam Jones turned into an All-Star centerfielder for the Orioles and Chris Tillman has compiled 198 starts for the Orioles since 2009 started. The Mariners only addition from the trade, Erik Bedard, spent two and a half frustrating years with the team, during which he started 46 games. In those games Bedard averaged only 5.5 innings per start, but he did have a good 3.31 ERA (255 IP, 94 ER). While Bedard wasn't bad he wasn't consistent at all and just couldn't be counted on. The price the M's paid for him was just too great. By trading two young and promising minor leaguers it set the team back for years to come.

Once the team actually started playing baseball things didn't go well either. Similar to 2004, the biggest problem with the 2008 team was they couldn't hit or pitch well. Only four players had a wRC+ over 100 (Ichiro, Lopez, Beltre, and Ibanez), meaning they were better than average for their position. Two pitchers started 20 or more games and had ERA's over 6.00 (Silva and Batista). The relief pitchers recorded a record of 36 saves and a whopping 31 blown saves, the most in the American league.

One bright spot was left fielder Raul Ibanez. In his second to last year with Seattle (he returned in 2013 for one last hoorah) Ibanez had a .293 batting average, hit 43 doubles and 23 homer, and drove in 110 runs. This was all good for a wRC+ of 122, by far the best on the Mariners. This good season set Ibanez up for a nice big contract with Philadelphia in 2009.

Ichiro was basically the only person on base for Ibanez to drive in. He score 103 times, or 15% of the Mariners total runs. Ichiro also racked up his eighth straight year with 200+ hits. Once on base Ichiro stole 43 bases and only got caught 4 times. That is a very impressive 91% success rate. Essentially Ichiro had another typical season.

Another bright spot for the Mariners was the Felix Hernandez finally becoming an ace. Although he went a disappointing 9-11 for the season, his ERA was 3.45, eighth lowest in the American league. Additionally, King Felix struck out 175 batters in 200.66 innings, seventh most in the American League. Overall a very good season.

The rest of the starting pitchers were bad or hurt. We already talked about Erik Bedard and his frustrating first season with the team. In addition to Bedard the team also brought in Carlos Silva. The former Minnesota Twin looked good to start the season, he had a 2.79 ERA in six starts. Then in May everything fell apart. His ERA for the month was 11.00 over 5 starts. Silva ended up starting 28 games in 2008 and he never regained his April form. Although on July 8th he managed tothrow a complete game against Oakland, but in fitting fashion for 2008 he lost 0-2. Silva's final ERA for the season was 6.46.

2008 is also of note because it was when RA Dickey brought his knuckleball to the Emerald city. Although he had a 5.21 ERA in 112.33 innings during his one season in Seattle, Dickey's unique style made an impression on the fans. I have been following his career from a far ever since.

It wasn't enough that the team couldn't hit or pitch, so for good measure the Mariners also struggled playing defense in 2008. The worst offender was Yuniesky Betancourt who made 21 errors in 153 games, the fourth most in the majors. Betancourt's inability to field groundballs or throw them to first base regularly was a major issue for the shortstop. It probably cost him his job in Seattle.

Calling 2008 a bad season for the Mariners is an understatement. I am sure the franchise would love to just wipe it from the record, but they can't. Fans all around the Pacific Northwest suffered through the season and witnessed some of the worst quality baseball imaginable. The lone offensive bright spot was Raul Ibanez, and the lone pitcher worth lauding was Felix Hernandez. The season is also remember for one of the worst trades in franchise history, which is like rubbing salt in the wound.

Sources: Baseball Reference, Fangraphs

2005-2007: The Mariners Appear to be Getting Better

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Thu, 18 Jan 2018 05:32:00 +0000

Many of you probably don't remember or never knew that Mike Hargrove was the manager of the Seattle Mariners for two and a half seasons. He inherited a terrible team coming off a 63-99 record in 2004 and adds wins each of his seasons at the helm. In 2005 the Mariners won 69 games, they followed that up with 78 wins in 2006 and an exciting 88 in 2007. Strangely Hargrove resigned in the middle of the 2007 season. The team was doing well and it looked like they might finally make the playoffs, so weirdly the manager that suffered through two rebuilding years decided to leave. Hargrove explained to the Seattle Times that it "boiled down to the fact that it was getting increasingly difficult to summon the 100 percent effort he demanded of his players."

In addition to adding Hargrove as the Manager, in 2005 the Mariners added two big name and big money free agents in Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre. Both of these players have a mixed legacy with the Mariners. Sexson spent the end of his career with the Mariners and Beltre the middle, which surely impacted how they are remembered.

Sexson had a 144 wRC+ in 2005. He clobbered 39 HR pleasing fans all over the PNW. In 2006 Sexson's hitting stayed strong. He hit 34 more HR and had a 117 wRC+. The drop off was almost entirely from the decline of walks, which fell from 89 to 64. Sexson also hit 5 Grand Slams in 2006, something that is burned into my baseball memory. Unfortunately for the Big Sexy most fans seem to have 2007 burned into their memories. Sexson's production fell off a cliff in 2007. He did managed to hit 21 HR, but that was about it. His average dropped from the .260's down to .205. His walks dropped to 51. All this resulted in his wRC+ plummeting to 84. In three seasons Richie Sexson went from 44% better than an average first baseman to 16% worse. It was an impressive decline to say the least.

Adrian Beltre came to Seattle from the Los Angeles Dodgers after a season he finished second in the MVP voting. Beltre had already played 7 season with the Dodgers, but was still only 26 years old when he joined the Mariners in 2005. He spent five years in Seattle. If Belte's body followed the normal aging curve they would have been his prime. Instead Beltre somehow got way better when he left the Mariners, dominating the American league in his 30's. We should all be so lucky.

During his whole time with the Mariners Beltre played amazing defense at third base. However, at the plate he was much more disappointing. He never hit 30 homeruns. His highest batting average was only .275, in 2007. His wRC+ topped out at 110 and was below 100, worse than average, twice. During 2005 to 2007 Beltre did manage to improve his hitting stats each year raising his average and slugging in each consecutive year. According to Fangraphs he contributed 9.9 WAR between 2005-2007. Beltre definitely didn't hurt the team, because of his strong defense, but he didn't deliver on the promise of his 2004 Dodgers' season.

Between 2005 and 2007 the Mariners bullpen saw the collapse of Steady Eddie Guardado and the rise of JJ Putz. I think most people think of Eddie Guardado as a bad closer, I know I do. Interestingly though looking back on his 2005 stats shows that Guardado was actually pretty good for the Mariners. He recorded a 2.72 ERA and 36 saves in 41 chances. He appeared in 58 games. 2006 was a completely different story for Guardado. He gave up 8 homeruns in only 23 innings and blew 3 of his 8 save chances, prompting Manager Mike Hargrove to make a switch at closer to JJ Putz.

Putz was electric in 2006 and even better in 2007. He posted an ERA of 2.30 in 2006 followed by 1.38 in 2007. Over those two seasons he struck out 186 batters and walked 26 in 150 innings. In 2007 his WHIP was a ridiculously low .698. Whenever fans at Safeco Field heard Thunderstruck start to play and saw Putz walking up to the mound you knew the M's were going to win. Putz brought me personally many great memories at the end of games watching opposing hitters be completely flummoxed.

The mid 2000's also saw the introduction of Felix Hernandez to Seattle baseball. In 2005 King Felix impressed in his first 12 major leagues starts. In his third big league game ever Felix pitched 8 inning, gave up 3 hits, 1 runs and struckout 11 Kansas City Royals. He followed that up with another 8 inning gem against the Minnesota Twins (5 H, 2 ER, and 9 K) and fans were hooked. Hernandez struggled a little during his sophomore campaign, seeing his ERA jump up to 4.52. Though the King did throw his first major league complete game shutout that year. It was onAugust 28th against the Los Angeles Angels of Anahiem and unusally both starting pitchers went the distance (the other was Kelvim Escobar). Felix continued to improve in 2007, getting his ERA down to 3.92. He wasn't great in either year, but it is important to remember that ERA in general were higher during the mid 2000's. In both 2006 and 2007 his ERA was below the cumulative ERA of all major league starters (4.69 and 4.63). Although not yet the dominate pitcher fans know today, Felix showed signs of what was to come during all three of his first seasons.

The 2005 through 2007 seasons saw the Mariners climb out of the cellar to flirt with the playoffs. Sadly they didn’t' get the job done in 2007 allowing the now longest playoff draught in Professional sports to continue. These three seasons saw a successful manager quit unexpectedly during a winning season, the addition of big money free agents, and the emergence of a Mariner icon. Overall they were a very memorable set of years.

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference

The Seahawks Fire Two Long Time Coaches

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Sun, 14 Jan 2018 03:28:00 +0000

The Seahawks ended the season with a dud. They lost three of their last four games. The Rams games was a complete and total embarrassment. It was probably one of the worst performances in a big time game (at home against a division rival in the third to last week of the year) that I have ever seen. The Seahawks are clearly a team with problems that need fixed. This week Pete Carroll took the first step in righting the wrongs by firing Offensive Coordinator Darrell Bevell and Assistant Head Coach Tom Cable. Personally I understand these firings, especially Cable, but similar to Matt Calkins I hope they aren't the end of the turnover.

In Bevell's defense the team was essentially missing half the offense. No running back showed consistency or goodness. At times different people looked good, but nobody was able to carry the load. Additionally the offensive line failed to run block as often as they opened holes. Seeing a running back tackled in the backfield mere moments after the hand off was a frequent sight in Seattle. Because of the personnel the team had Bevell was essentially unable to call run plays effectively. He had to pass often, which, as Pete Carroll frequently reminded us, is what this team wants to be.

None of that is to say Bevell was free of blame. He struggled at times to call plays that optimized the skills of the players on his team. His offenses took way to long to adapt to the other teams. It was a regular occurrence for the Seahawks to struggle throughout the first half only to look like a completely different team in the second. Nothing highlights this more than Russell Wilson's ridiculous splits in 2017. In the first half of games DangeRuss had 270 pass attempt for 1659 yard and 8 INT. In the second half of games he had 282 pass attempts for 2318 yards and 26 touchdowns.

By far the best criticism I have heard of Bevell is that the offenses most effective play was the scramble drill, after whatever had been called had broken down. Russell Wilson was at his best improvising, either during hurry up drills or scrambles. Wilson's ridiculous splits between halves show this as well. When the pressure was on and it became do our die Wilson turned to improvisation to get it done. That doesn't look good for the offensive coordinator, the guy calling the plays.

To summarize I don't think firing Bevell was a bad decision, but I am afraid whoever comes next will struggle just as much unless the o line and running backs are improved. I really don't want to be sitting in front of my TV next year listing to all my friends jumping on the fire offensive coordinator Joe Blow band wagon. With this current roster that is a major possibility.

Tom Cable is a different story. The man's official titles were Assistant Head Coach and Offensive Line Coach, but it has been reported that Cable was essentially the co-offensive coordinator. In this role he was tasked with setting up blocking schemes to make the passing and rushing attack work. Cable was also tasked with developing the offensive lineman that the Seahawks brought in to Seattle.

When it comes to developing blocking talent Cable must be considered a bust. The Seahawks have drafted 15 offensive lineman (if you include JR Sweezy) since 2010. Of these only Justin Britt and Russell Okung have turned into above average professional players (admittedly there is still time for Ethan Pocic). The success of any offense largely depends on the lineman's ability to block. Tom Cable knows this, it is what he was paid to improve it in Seattle. His coaching ability just wasn't up to snuff. The Seahawks need to blow up their entire offensive line strategy and try again. That means the main man in charge of the offensive line, Tom Cable, needs to go too.

2017 was a disappointing season for the Seattle Seahawks. They missed the playoffs for the first time in six years. Their offense struggled mightily and their once great defense was hobbled by injuries and penalties. The first moves to right the ship were the firings of long time coaches Darrell Bevell and Tom Cable. These were probably the right move. Cable had failed completely over the last few years to develop offensive line talent. Bevell was the play caller in an offense that performed best when everything broke down and the called play wasn't followed. However, if these are the only major moves the Seahawks make it will be very disappointing.

Sources: Pro Football Reference

A Few Tidbits from Around the Web

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Sat, 13 Jan 2018 00:52:00 +0000

Wow, I haven't posted one of these in a while. It isn't that I haven't been reading, listening to, and watching sports media because I have. I still read ESPN the Mag and the Seattle Times Sports section. I listen to Slate's Hang Up and Listen and Dave "Softy" Mauler on 950 KJR regularly. I just seem to have forgotten to save any of these articles to share with you guys. Sorry about that.

Anyways, here are some links to sports media I have found interesting lately.

I wrote a whole post about the Rise of Strikeouts. Looks like I wasn't the only one noticing the increased whiffing. Joe Sheehan wrote this piece about how baseball has become boring because their are so many strikeouts and so few non homeruns.
Every year the NFL sees a rash of high profile injuries. This year Aaron Rodgers, David Johnson, and Odell Beckham Jr. have all suffered major injuries. Losing star players to injury hurts the game. One proposal to reduce injuries is to change the way the league schedule works by removing a pre-season game and adding another bye week.
The Seahawks success during the Pete Carroll ear is largely because of the Legion of Boom. There are debates about who exactly is in the LOB, but one thing is clear: Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Early Thomas are the commanders. Sadly times unending march appears to be catching up with the LOB.
NCAA Division 1 athletes is ripe with controversy and unethical behavior. Few programs remain untouched from a coach or players crossing a line to try and help their team win. The example of the University of Louisville, as detailed in ESPN the Mag, is especially galling. The whole department was focused on enriching the shoe giant Adidas.

2004: A Terrible Year for Seattle Baseball

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Mon, 08 Jan 2018 04:43:00 +0000

2004 was the year it all came crashing down. The team finished with 63 wins and 99 losses. This was mostly because they couldn't hit or pitch. The Mariners scored the least runs in the AL at 698 or 4.31 runs per game. The pitchers gave up the 5.08 runs per game. It is really hard to be a good team when you give up .77 runs more per game than you score.

Newcomers Rich Aurilla and Scott Spezio both failed. Aurilla started the year at short stop, however he only made it 73 games before being traded to the Padres. In his half season with the team Aurilla hit only .241 with 17 extra base hits. It was his worst offensive performance, as measured by OPS, since 1996, his first full season in the big leagues. Spezio was brought to the team to play first and third base. He did manage to do that, appearing 42 times at first and another 66 at third. Being a warm body on the field was Spezio's biggest contribution to the team. He recorded a -0.8 WAR in 2004 according to Baseball Reference, which means he was worse than a random minor leaguer. Spezio had an OBP of only .288, which is terrible. For comparison's sake Ketal Marte had an OBP of .287 in 2016 while starting at short stop, a traditionally light hitting position, for the Mariners. Scott Spezio started a first and third,traditionally power hitting positions.

In 2004 the Mariners also saw several of their offensive stalwarts have massive drop offs from past production. John Olerud had a triple slash of .245/.354/.360. All three of these were lows for his Mariners career. His tenure with the Mariners ended near the end of July when they released him.

Mariner legend Edgar Martinez also struggled at the plate, at least by his standards (although it was better than Olerud, Spezio and Aurilla). 2004 ended up being the last season of his illustrious career. His runs, hits, homeruns, RBI, and walks all dropped significantly from his 2003 totals.

Despite the gloomy writing so far not all was bad at the plate for the Mariners. Ichiro had his best season at the plate. He set the single season hit record at 262. Ichiro was his usual terror on the base paths. He stole 31 bases and scored 101 times, both team highs. Ichiro also earned his fourth consecutive Gold Glove for his stellar outfield defense. He was the reason to watch this team.

The 2004 season had one other position player I would be remiss to not mention. Bucky Jacobsen made his major league debut. Jacobsen left a lasting impression on the Seattle sports psyche. For Mariners fans desperate for future stars, his 9 homer, 9 doubles, and 28 RBI were an tantalizing preview of what the future could. Sadly it was not to be 2004 was the only season Jacobsen ever made it to the major leagues. His knees were too damage to sustain him as a professional athlete.

As already mentioned it wasn't just the hitters that struggled in 2004. The pitching staff was also terrible. The lowest ERA of any starter with at least 20 starts was 4.67. Jamie Moyer, a soft tosser who had put up several good season with the M's got destroyed. He gave up 44 homers in only 33 games started, which unsurprisingly was the worst in MLB. As a result his ERA ballooned from 3.27 in 2003 to 5.21 in 2004.

The season did see the rise and fall of Bobby Madritsch. At age 28 the pitcher made his major league debut. He started 11 games and posted a 3.27 ERA. Much like Bucky Jacobsen he filled fans with hope. And unfortunately much like Bucky Jacobsen it was not meant to be. Madritsch appeared again in 2005 before being let go and claimed by the Royals. The much tattooed pitcher capture the minds of Seattle for a summer and then disappeared in baseball obscurity.

It wasn't only the starting pitching that struggled for the Mariners in 2004. The bullpen was a disaster. The Mariners brought in Eddie Guardado from Minnesota to be the closer. Although Guardado's ERA, a low-ish 2.78, was not as bad as I remember he was still a major liability on the mound. Steady Eddie blew 7 games in 25 chances. 2003 relief star Shigetoshi Hasegawa fell off a cliff. His ERA exploded from a stunning 1.48 in 2003 to 5.16 in 2004. Other relievers with significant playing time in 2004 were J.J. Putz, Mike Myers, and Julio Mateo. They all had ERA over 4.50 and Putz and Mateo had lots of trouble giving up the long ball. They combined to allow 21 dingers to Mariners opponents.

After reading through all this it is probably clear that 2004 was not a good year for professional baseball in Seattle. The team couldn't hit or pitch well. Fan favorite players succumbed to the decline of age and new free agent signings failed to perform well. The highlight of 2004 was probably the debuts of Bucky Jacobsen and Bobby Madritsch, although sadly neither ever made a lasting impact for the team. 2004 will probably always be remembered as the beginning of the decade plus of bad Mariners baseball.

Sources: Baseball Reference, Fangraphs

Sixteen Years of Mariners Misery

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Tue, 02 Jan 2018 05:11:00 +0000

The Buffalo Bills finally made it into the NFL playoffs as a Wild Card. They ended a drought of 17 years with making the playoffs this year. Their last trip was in 1999. The Bills had the longest consecutive stretch without making the playoffs of any major North American sports team. The new owners of that dubious title are the Seattle Mariners.

As a Mariners fan we have been treated to a miserable run of baseball in Seattle. The Mariners haven't made the playoffs since 2001, the same season they won 116 regular season games, but failed to make it to the World Series. The team did put together two solid season in 2002 and 2003 winning 93 games each time, but missing the playoffs, because the AL West was just plain stacked with talent. From 2004 onwards that Mariners have never managed to win 90+ games. The team has been stuck in an epic slump of bad to mediocre results.

Fans blame the playoffs drought on lots of stuff. Over the years favorite explanations for the misery have included ownership not caring about winning, the ballpark suppressing offense, managements refusal to spend money of big time free agents. Each of these has been debunked to various degrees. The Seattle Mariners failure is really just because their General Managers have made an astonishingly large number of bad moves over the last fourteen years and the team has had some really bad luck.

So to honor the end of the Bills streak and the Mariners taking over the top spot on the list for futility I thought it would be interesting to look back at each of the last sixteen Mariners seasons. I plan on breaking this up over several posts, but we will hit each of the seasons, from the lowest low to the highest medium.

2002-2003

As previously mentioned the Mariners won 93 games in both 2002 and 2003. The teams were solid and in almost any other year would have made the playoffs. Unfortunately the American League and the West Division were also having stellar years. In 2002 the A's and Yankees both won 103 games, and the Angels won 99. In 2003 the Yankees won 101 games, the A's won 96 games, and the Red Sox won 95. There were just too many really good teams in the American League in the early 2000's.

The offenses of 2002 and 2003 were anchored by Bret Boone, who was still in his prime. In 2003 he hit 35 HR, batted .294 and drove in 117 runs. The 2002 team saw John Olerud crush the ball at the plate. His triple slash was .300/.404/.490. The 2003 team had a rebound year by Edgar Martinez, who hit .294/.406/.489 in 145 games.

The defenses of both teams had Mike Cameron roaming centerfield and Ichiro Suzuki in right field. They were two of the best defenders of the era. The guys prevented tons runs with their gloves and arms. Homeruns were robbed and baserunners were thrown out.

The 2002 team saw Joel Pineiro put up the best season of his career. He posted a 3.24 ERA in 28 starts and 194.1 innings. The team also had Jamie Moyer put forward another great season with a 3.32 ERA over 34 starts and 230.2 innings.

The 2003 team had the rare luxury of five pitchers (J. Moyer, R. Franklin, J. Pinerio, F. Garcia, and G. Meche) starting 30 plus games. Jamie Moyer was the best of them starting 33 games and having a 3.27 ERA. Impressively the soft tossing Moyer recorded a WHIP of 1.075. Of the starters only Gil Meche didn't record over 200 innings.

Another pitching standout in 2003 was Shigetoshi Hasegawa. The relief pitcher posted a 1.48 ERA over 73 innings. Between June 3rd and August 17th, a total of 25 games, Shiggy didn't give up any runs. He was as dominate a reliever as the American League saw in 2003. Although he didn't strike many batters out he did get half of his outs with groundballs.

All told the 2002 and 2003 teams were very solid. They had good players and should have been able to make the playoffs. The teams could both hit and pitch. Unfortunately they ran into a historically strong American league field. At the time it didn't seem like the Mariners were about to enter a stretch a failure that would lead them to the longest active playoff drought in major North American sports.

Sources: Baseball Reference, Fangraphs

Time to Rebuild

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Wed, 27 Dec 2017 20:11:00 +0000

The Seahawks 2017 season has been full of ups and downs. The embarrassment at home against the Los Angeles Rams, who were leading 34-0 at half time and were never once at risk of losing, was a turning point for me. The game reinforced that the Seahawks are a team full of weaknesses. They are no longer a dominate team, but instead a mediocre team with a few superstars. The glory days of the Seahawks dominating the NFC West have come to an end.

The Seahawks have had an amazing run of success. Since 2012 they have won at least 10 games each seasons, going 56-23-1. This year they could still finish 10-6 if they can beat the Cowboys and the Cardinals to end the season. This kind of success is hard to come by in the NFL. The only other team over that five year stretch to win at least ten games each season is the New England Patriots (the Packers made the playoffs every year, but went 8-7-1 in 2013). Pete Carroll and the Seahawks players from those teams should be proud of their accomplishments. However if the team wants to continue their run of success they need to realize this turning point, clean house and start a rebuild.

Blowing up a team that still has many fan favorites that helped the team achieve their success will be a hard pill to swallow, but it has to happen. If they don't act now the team will enter the all too common curse of former great teams, treading water as mediocre. The ageing star's big salaries and inconsistent play will let them win some games, but keep them from winning enough to reach the most important one of all. The fans may like having their favorites around, but they will be frustrated by the fading glory.

2017 has been a perfect example of this mediocrity. They have had impressive wins like against the Philadelphia Eagles, and embarrassing losses, like against Washington. All the money tied up in the Seahawks big name star has created weakness in the reserves and the offensive line. The lack of depth is obvious at linebacker when absent Bobby Wagner (admittedly an All-Pro) and KJ Wright, the corps appears to vanish, as tackles are missed and plays go for extra yards. The current team is too flawed to win consistently.

The front office should be open to moving, either trading or cutting, every single player on the roster, with one exception. Stars like Michael Bennett, Kam Chancellor shouldn't be spared. In Bennett's case he still shows signs of greatness, but other weeks he is a complete no show and he always hurts the team with stupid penalties. Kam is still an emotional leader for the team, but Bradley McDougald has shown Chancellor's on field play can be replaced. Additionally Kam has failed to stay healthy and on the field. It is a harsh reality of the NFL that players have to be able to stay healthy if they are going to stay on a roster.

Other players will be easy to let go. Blair Walsh has proven to be a liability. He can't hit a FG over 50 yards and struggles even at much more routine distances. He should be the first player gone. Jeremy Lane often looks lost. He has been beaten several times. According to Over the Cap he is set to get paid $6 million in 2018 and hit the Seattle salary cap with $7.25 million. For a fairly mediocre player that price is easily replaceable in the draft.

As previously mentioned there should be one exception to the fire sale, Russell Wilson. Franchise QB are too important and difficult to find. Without one teams end up like the Cleveland Browns, desperately searching for years. Russell is 29 years old and in his NFL prime. Before the Rams debacle he was playing at an MVP level. Although that game should take him out of the consideration.

On the season he has 32 passing TD to only 11 INT and an additional 3 rushing TD. Wilson has thrown for the tenth most passing yards in the NFL and rushed for the second most, after Cam Newton, of any quarterback. He is one of the most elusive quarterbacks in the league, despite playing behind one of the worst offensive lines. He is super clutch, frequently carrying the team on his back during the fourth quarter to make the game close. Simply put Russell Wilson is the most value Seahawk and will be leading the team for at least another 6 seasons.

It will be painful, but the Seahawks need to rip the band-aid off and start a rebuild. If done now it will save them and their fans from years of frustrating mediocrity. Aging former stars with major contracts can put on an impressive performance from time to time, but they can't play with enough consistency to win a Super Bowl. The team needs to get young and hungry again. They need to build depth at linebacker and offensive line.

Sources: Over the Cap, Pro Football Reference

An Embarrassment in Seattle

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Mon, 18 Dec 2017 21:51:00 +0000

The Seahawks completely and totally embarrassed themselves at home in CenturyLink Field on Sunday afternoon. In the most important game of the season they completely and totally failed in all three phases of the game and got their assess handed to them by the Rams. The score was 34-0 at half time and if the Rams had kept trying they could have easily scored 70. Runningback Todd Gurley was free to head where ever he wanted. The Rams vaunted D line destroyed the Seahawks; recording seven sacks and holding Seahawk's runningbacks to 49 yards. This was the worst performance by the Seahawks at any time in Pete Carroll's tenure as head coach. None of the Seattle players should show their faces in the city this week.

The team's complete and total failure on Sunday was unacceptable. Ownership should be furious. It is one thing to lose and important to a conference rival, but to get devastated like the Seahawks is something else entirely. The teams should refund all of the fans who attended the game. These fans paid three figures to attend a football game. A certain level of effort and quality should be provided. Issuing a refund isn't unprecedented. The Seattle Sounders FC did it in 2010 after getting embarrassed by the LA Galaxy. Seattle needs to make amends to their loyal fans for such a piss-poor performance.

Sources: Pro Football Reference

The Bills Bone Headed Move

noreply@blogger.com (Kswiss) — Thu, 23 Nov 2017 17:37:00 +0000

ESPN recently profiled NFL quarterback Tyrod Taylor. The article described his complex place in the NFL. Although not a star he is a clearly competent player. Coming into week 11 Taylor hadn't played stellar this year, but was still not hurting his team. He had 10 TD to only 3 INT. The Bills were 5-4 and coming off two consecutive losses. In the first loss the Bills fell to the Jets 34-21. Taylor went 29/40 for 285 yards and 2 TD. During the second loss, against the Saints, Taylor struggled going only 9/18 for 56 yards and an INT. In the teams two most recent losses prior to week 11 Taylor had one good game and one bad game. However, both losses clearly had more to do with the Bills defense's inability to stop the opposing run. In those two games they gave up 194 and 298 yards rushing respectively.

Leading up to the Bills week 11 matchup against the Chargers, Bills head coach Sean McDermott analyzed his teams recent struggles and decided to make a change at QB and let rookie Quarterback Nathan Peterman start. The outcome of the decision was terrible. Peterman managed to throw 5 interceptions in just one half, letting the Chargers get ahead 37-7. He did so poorly that McDermott was forced to make a change and put Taylor back in at quarterback for the second half. To put this all in comparison, Peterman threw more interceptions in a half then Taylor has thrown all year. He threw the same number of interceptions as Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, and Carson Wentz have all year. Those guys have started all ten games their teams have played. Peterson has an interception rate of 20.8%. Throwing five INT in a half is really bad.

I am not normally one to call for the firing of coaches after a small sample size, but I think McDermott is a special kind of dumb. The Bills head coach decided that this above average ball security quarterback on a team that was 5-4 needed to be benched. His backup plan was starting a rookie QB with 10 career attempts. This is not a strategy for success. Teams with playoff hopes don't switch out their quarterbacks willy-nilly, especially for unproven rookies. They stick with guys way worse than Taylor. The decision to bench Taylor in favor of Peterman was a bad one and it blew up in extraordinary fashion. McDermott needs to be on the hot seat. The Bills ownership needs to let him know that he made a stupid decision and if he wants to stay their head coach he needs to stop making stupid decisions. Finally Tyrod Taylor needs to start the remainder of the games for the Bills.

Sources: Pro Football Reference