Torrential rainfall across southeastern Minnesota has caused widespread flooding and sent area rivers rising, with more heavy rain possible Saturday across parts of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin.

Heavy rainfall brings flooding concerns

Torrential rainfall brought widespread flooding concerns to southeastern Minnesota overnight, with some areas receiving more than 6 inches of rain as thunderstorms repeatedly tracked over the same locations.

The heaviest rainfall developed Friday evening along and just north of Interstate 90, particularly across Waseca, Steele, Mower and Freeborn counties. A narrow band of training thunderstorms produced rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches or more.

The Twin Cities metro picked up anywhere from a quarter inch to more than an inch of rain, with the heaviest amounts reported across the southern metro.

The intense rainfall has resulted in multiple reports of flooding across southeastern Minnesota, with several rivers continuing to rise following the deluge. The Root River in Houston County is projected to rise above 15 feet, reaching minor flood stage, while the Cedar River near Lansing in Mower County has already reached 20 feet. With additional runoff still making its way into area waterways, river levels are expected to remain elevated and could continue rising through the weekend.

While southeastern Minnesota is expected to avoid another major round of rainfall, portions of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin could see additional thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. A flood warning remains in effect through 7 p.m. Saturday for Fillmore, Mower and southern Olmsted county.

A widespread soaking rain is falling across Minnesota Friday, delivering much-needed moisture. More rain is expected Friday night into early Saturday, with the heaviest downpours targeting southeastern Minnesota and areas near the Iowa border.

Widespread soaking rainfall

Rain gauges continue to slowly fill as Friday’s first wave of rainfall moves across the region. Many locations have already picked up a healthy one-quarter inch to more than 1 inch of rain, with totals continuing to climb.

Radar has been lighting up since the morning hours as steady, soaking rain spreads across the area. And this is only the first round. Another round of potentially much heavier rain is expected Friday night into early Saturday.

Heavier rain threat develops Friday night

The more significant rainfall concern is farther south, particularly near the Minnesota-Iowa border and across southeastern Minnesota.

As warmer, more humid air pushes north Friday evening, we’ll see the potential for much heavier rain to develop. The greatest concern is across far southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa, especially near and east of Interstate 35.

Some forecast models are showing the potential for several inches of additional rain across southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa, prompting flood watches across portions of the region.

The heaviest rain is expected Friday evening into the early overnight hours, when thunderstorms could further enhance rainfall totals. A marginal risk for severe weather is also in place, with a few stronger wind gusts possible in the storms.

Some locations could pick up a month's worth of rain by the time this system moves out Saturday morning.

Friday will be wet and windy. Rain will be heavy at times with the heaviest likely in southern Minnesota. Clouds will linger along with slightly cool temperatures for the weekend.

Soggy Friday with heavy rain potential for southern Minnesota

Many locations in southwestern and south-central Minnesota have already seen 1 inch or more of rainfall so far Friday morning. Those totals will continue to go up Friday.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and expand across central and southern Minnesota. Look for rain to persist on and off all day into Friday night. Heavier thunderstorms will develop in the evening hours for southern Minnesota that will produce even heavier rainfall into the overnight.

Much of central and southern Minnesota will broadly see 1 to 2 inches of total rainfall. There will be pockets that see less but also narrow swaths of southern Minnesota that could see in excess of 3 to 6 inches of total rain.

A flood watch is posted for portions of southeastern Minnesota for Friday evening into Friday night.

We’ll need to monitor the evening development of more intense bands of showers and thunderstorms. Those will be the storms that deliver the heaviest rainfall amounts.

So far, the consensus in the models and is reflected in the National Weather Service forecast rain totals, is in southeastern Minnesota. A couple of forecast models are a bit more north, perhaps up to even Northfield or Red Wing.

Unfortunately, we won’t really know until these band start to develop late Friday afternoon and evening.

Temperatures will remain cool, mostly in the 50s and 60s due to the rain and clouds. It will also be quite windy. East winds will blow at 10 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 to 40 mph at times. It will remain blustery through Friday night.

The weekend will bring lingering clouds though there will be some occasional peeks of sunshine. Temperatures will also be seasonably cool with temperatures averaging a few degrees below normal.

Most will see highs in the 60s both days with overnight lows in the 50s and 40s.

Next week may yield a subtle warming trend late week.

Minnesota is heading toward a potentially soggy end to the week with widespread heavy rain expected Friday into early Saturday. The heaviest rainfall is currently expected from the Twin Cities metro area south toward the Minnesota–Iowa border, where 3 to 5 inches or more could fall.

Heavy rainfall expected Friday

A significant storm system will bring attention to the Upper Midwest from Friday into the weekend, arriving in two distinct waves.

The system is currently organizing over the Four Corners and southern Rockies. As it moves north and east, it will interact with a strong upper-level pattern and draw increasingly abundant moisture into Minnesota.

By early Friday morning, a large area of showers is expected to spread into central and southern Minnesota. The initial wave of rain between Friday morning and Friday afternoon could produce 1 to 2 inches or more in locations where the rain shield remains in place for an extended period.

Current forecast models suggests the first round could focus from west-central Minnesota toward the Twin Cities before gradually weakening later Friday. But that may not be the end of the rain.

A second round of rain could bring torrential amounts

A second round of potentially heavier rainfall is expected to develop later Friday night into Saturday morning as a surface warm front lifts across southern Minnesota. This round could affect south-central and southeastern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa and eventually southwestern Wisconsin.

The setup is concerning because thunderstorms could repeatedly track along the same general area.

When storms move parallel to a frontal boundary instead of quickly moving across it, rainfall can "train" over the same locations, rapidly adding to storm totals. That creates the potential for very heavy rainfall in localized areas, and the potential for flooding.

The biggest forecast question right now is how far north that second round of storms will develop, and whether it overlaps areas that have already received substantial rain earlier Friday.

Flooding potential increasing

With multiple rounds of rain possible, flooding will be an important concern, particularly Friday night into early Saturday morning.

The highest rainfall totals are currently favored across the southern portion of the Twin Cities metro area and areas extending south and east toward northeast Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin.

Some locations could receive 3 to 5 inches or more, although rainfall totals will vary considerably over short distances.

Residents in flood-prone areas should keep an eye on the forecast as Friday approaches, particularly if additional rain falls before the main event.

The upcoming stretch of heavy rain could provide a significant boost to areas still experiencing drought, especially where rainfall totals reach several inches. However, the benefits will depend heavily on where the heaviest rain falls.

Clouds and fog should decrease slowly Thursday. Soaking rains develop for Friday. Some areas could see more than 4 inches of rain in southern Minnesota into early Saturday.

Warm Thursday ahead of soaking rains Friday

We have areas of fog and patchy drizzle across central and north-central Minnesota, especially with lingering low clouds south. Those clouds should gradually decrease with some afternoon sun.

Afternoon highs range from the low 70s south to the mid-60s north Thursday afternoon with light winds.

Clouds will increase again overnight with showers and thunderstorms developing late Thursday night and persisting on and off into much of Friday and Friday night. Some of that rain could be quite heavy at times.

Much of central and southern Minnesota into Iowa and Wisconsin will see a broad area of at least 1 to 2 inches of rain with a narrow area of heavier rainfall potentially setting up. Some spots could see in excess of 4 inches of total rainfall Friday, especially southeastern Minnesota.

There’s a slight risk of excessive rainfall forecast from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center. Despite drought conditions, that much rainfall could trigger some flood watches.

Most models hint at a narrow area of more than 4 inches of rain developing. Where this band sets up will be key. Forecast models range from central Minnesota into northern Iowa.

It will be difficult to forecast precisely until the rain has developed and is in place. Dry air sneaking in from the east could also reduce rainfall totals in some areas.

Quite a bit of cloud cover will likely linger into the weekend but we should see some peeks of sunshine. Temperatures will hover around 70 degrees for highs over the weekend, which is close to normal.

Minnesota will get a quick hit of rain Wednesday night in two segments. Thursday is warmer and a tiny bit humid. A more organized band of heavy rain targets parts of Minnesota on Friday, with warmer weather building next week.

Here come the clouds

After a stunning start to Wednesday, with the coldest morning since May 24 verified in the Twin Cities, we’re soon going to watch milky-white clouds stream in.

The rain kicks off in northwestern Minnesota by Wednesday evening, and a second chunk of rain is here for southern Minnesota, too.

Central Minnesota, the area parallel to the North Dakota — South Dakota borders, probably will not get much rain, if any at all.

This is primarily an overnight rain event. You might wake up and say “Oh, must’ve rained last night,” but apart from some morning fog on Thursday, this will have minimal impacts.

We are already loading the deck for the Friday storm complex by Friday morning.

Winds out of the south along with leftover clouds will set up a milder morning across the Land of 10,000 Lakes. The afternoon is also a little warmer, technically a couple of degrees above average.

Thursday is still a really nice day to get stuff done before the larger rains roll into town.

At the top of this blog entry, plus in the image below, you’ll see the plume plot for rains at a point forecast in Minneapolis on Friday.

The charts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System are actually different sets of data, even though they look alike.

They both show around 2 inches of rain on Friday for the Twin Cities. Some other data puts the heaviest rain in southeastern Minnesota, where 4-inch forecasts near have prompted a flood watch.

Here’s what we can say without getting big rain hopes up: Southern Minnesota is still going to get a heavy rain event on Friday.

That event will not single-handedly end the drought. Nor will the rain count in the next drought conditions report.

We think the big rains will most likely stay south of U.S. Highway 14. A Madison to Montevideo to Hutchinson to Twin Cities to Eau Claire, Wis., line and points south are still looking really promising for at least a couple of inches of rain.

The weekend is made up of off-and-on clouds. Saturday should be mostly dry, with some more rain back by Sunday night to Monday.

Budding warm spell

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center has Minnesota in the crosshairs for a good chance of warmer-than-normal conditions rolling into next week, plus the start of the following week after that.

The high temperatures will not jump off the page but we could be a little above normal. That could temporarily stall some fall colors building in for northern Minnesota.

Clouds will increase ahead of the next disturbance to touch off showers late Wednesday into Wednesday night. It’ll be a bit warmer through Thursday. More significant rain is possible Friday.

Next chance of showers late Wednesday with more rain Friday

It was a chilly start with most locations starting the early morning in the 30s up north to low 50s in the urban heat island of Minneapolis-St. Paul. Most Twin Cities suburbs slipped into the 40s.

We’ll warm up Wednesday despite an increase in afternoon cloud cover. Afternoon highs will be in the mid-70s across southern Minnesota with 60s north.

The increase in clouds is being driven by the next disturbance which will develop some spotty to scattered showers in western Minnesota this afternoon which will track east by Wednesday evening and overnight.

Rainfall with this system will generally be on the lighter side, less than one-quarter inch for most.

Thursday will also be a bit warmer with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Dew points will also increase some late Thursday into Friday, adding a boost to the next, incoming system which could deliver more substantial rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms will develop late Thursday night into Friday and Friday night.

Total rainfall could be substantial with the Friday system. A broad area of 1 to 3 inches or more of rain could fall across central and southern Minnesota into northern Iowa and Wisconsin by the time it wraps up Friday night.

We’ll be watching for a potential narrow area of very heavy rainfall amounts. Forecast models differ on the placement of this. The map below shows a comparison of two forecast models for Friday rainfall.

The range of scenarios is generally from the Minnesota-Iowa border to the Twin Cities. Despite the drought, rainfall in excess of 4 inches could prompt some flood watches Friday.

We’ll likely see patchy clouds linger into the weekend as an upper-level low becomes cut off from the main flow aloft. That cool air in the mid levels of the atmosphere generates enough instability for some clouds and even a few spotty showers.

Looking forward to some more rain? Sure, some overnight showers Wednesday into Thursday and Thursday into Friday will take down some dried-out leaves, but we should get some aid for our drought. We have a generally cooler forecast but nothing is really leaping off the computer screen for an unbelievable chill — this is actually all pretty standard.

Big waves, small temperatures

The only alert out for all of Minnesota Tuesday is a gale warning on the open waters of Lake Superior. While all has looked calm on the Duluth harbor cameras, plus all of those nearby, you cannot say the same for the west side of the Upper Peninsula. Minnesota Public Radio has a small station in Houghton, Mich., so there is some local tie-in. Waves could climb above 11 feet for a brief time as the winds are pushing away from the North Shore, moving east towards the opposite side of Lake Superior.

You might even want a jacket for warmth if you’re out later Tuesday anywhere across Minnesota. There could be a slight wind chill! That’s especially the case in northern parts of the state Wednesday morning. Temperatures there will nosedive towards the upper 30s and lower 40s; unlike many previous days, that will actually be fairly widespread.

Across the southern half of the state, we’ll be in the lower 50s. Doesn’t sound too cold, right? Wednesday could be the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport’s coldest morning since way back on May 24!

Wednesday afternoon will also be below normal. While a little chilly, and with mostly cloudy skies developing later in the day, its still an overall really nice time to make outdoor plans across Minnesota.

Two dashes of late rain

Most of Wednesday’s daylight hours are dry, but rain is back in the western end of the state by dinner time. More rain starts to develop after dusk, especially closer to midnight.

The coverage on the midday weather maps that just came out are looking better (higher coverage across Minnesota) late night. This could be better news for our drought for two reasons: for one, rain overnight is less impactful to many folks’ outdoor plans. The other reason: less moisture will evaporate overnight, letting more of the soil recharge. Looking around the Twin Cities right now, you’ll find anywhere from 4 to 12 percent of normal soil moisture when digging down two inches into the topsoil. There are many more soil gauges around the Twin Cities than in other parts of the state, but it is probably fairly similar elsewhere.

Rain comes back late on Thursday night, but more likely into early Friday morning. This actually should be heavy at times, though the severe weather risk is pretty small. We’d bet this slows traffic a little bit on the busy highways Friday morning. The raw output from our weather maps behind the scenes is actually really heavy. Both a Canadian map (called the GDPS) and the European deterministic map have a widespread 2 to 3 inches from Highway 212 down south to Highway 14. That would even give the Twin Cities north of 2 inches of rain through Friday night.

The new GFS (American) map has the heaviest rain in a much more narrow line, still going west to east, closer to central Minnesota, skipping north of the Cities. No matter what, some spots should get really beneficial rains!

The leaves are greener…

This week is when we traditionally get a pop of early leaf color in northern Minnesota. That’s especially the case near Roseau and on higher elevations of the Iron Range near the far northeast of Minnesota. Much of that is based on day length and cooler temperatures. The drought throws a wrench in the timing and there’s still a lot to learn on leaf color forecasting.

With the coldish mornings coming soon, the chemical makeup of the leaves in northern Minnesota will slowly change. Our friends at Explore Fall keep updating their fall color forecast.

They believe some small tracts of forest along Highway 61 will soon produce great fall color by the coming weekend. This is the road that runs parallel to the Lake Superior shoreline.

High pressure clears skies out for most Tuesday making for a pleasant day. It will be pretty breezy, however. A few showers are possible Wednesday with better chances Friday.

High pressure makes a nice Tuesday with more rain chances ahead

Consider yourself lucky if you were one of the two main areas of the state that received significant rainfall Monday.

North-central and southeastern Minnesota saw nearly 1 inch or more of rainfall. Central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, saw significantly less.

Much of the south metro, including Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, is in severe drought and only received 21 one-hundredths of an inch. That’s a tiny drop in the rainfall deficit bucket.

Behind Monday’s system, we have a pretty nice fall day Tuesday with seasonably cool temps and sunshine for much of the state thanks to building high pressure.

There will be a few more clouds north and southeast. Highs will range from the low 70s south to low 60s north, a few degrees cooler than normal.

It will be a bit breezy. Northwest winds will blow at 10 to 20 mph across the state in the wake of Monday’s rainmaker. Winds will quickly calm down toward sunset and after dark.

It’ll be a chilly overnight with clear skies and winds lightening up after dark. Lows will be in the 40s for most of the state. There will be some upper 30s on the Iron Range and the urban heat island of Minneapolis-St. Paul proper will likely stay in the low 50s.

We have another chance of a few showers late Wednesday with a much weaker, fast-moving disturbance. Showers will track from the west in the afternoon to east by evening and early overnight Wednesday night. Most rainfall will be less than one-tenth of an inch.

Thursday should be a bit warmer and we’ll see dew points increase some late Thursday into Friday. That will help fuel the next more potent system that could deliver substantial rain to parts of Minnesota or Wisconsin.

The precise track will likely shift some, but as of now this is where the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts places the heaviest rainfall Friday into Friday night:

Almost every Minnesotan got — or will get — rain on Monday. We have another slate of cool mornings and then another solid wave of rain by Friday. Some fall colors should begin to pop up in northern Minnesota soon, as well.

Monday’s sleepy rain

Is there such a thing as perfect napping weather? We think so, and it looks a lot like Monday. Overcast skies, a gentle rain, a very limited severe weather threat, cooler temperatures — plus it’s coming after a lovely weekend.

The rains will be off and on through the rest of Monday afternoon into the early evening. That said, most will not go to bed with rain hitting the roof Monday night; the primary baroclinic wave pushes out late Monday evening.

So far, we haven’t seen enough rain to make this above map too accurate, but there is hope for a drought-helper through the end of Monday. There is also a brief southern streamer of rain for far southern Minnesota early Tuesday morning.

If you are out and about on the roads of northern Minnesota, anywhere on the North Shore and the Iron Range, we are expecting dense fog later Monday night. The weather computers bust the fog out of here by midmorning, but we shall see on how fast the fog gets out of Minnesota.

Tuesday is also going to be quite a cool day, even with drier conditions. Behind the cold front, temperatures are well below average. Only a few Minnesotans will be lucky enough to reach 70 degrees.

Even though we are dry, the clouds are going to hang steady, primarily in southeastern Minnesota along with the northern half of the state. The upper low has so much cold air coupled with it a couple of miles up, it will produce off-and-on clouds, so just be ready!

Wednesday should have a few showers, though the exact placement of the weak boundary is going back and forth on our computers. If we put our bets down now, we’d say the light rain is pretty far north and mostly late Wednesday night. It only appears to be isolated now.

Late week rain chances

Clouds steamroll in on Thursday afternoon ahead of a steady rain starting early Friday. This should also (like Monday) be a solid rainmakers for most of Minnesota, lasting throughout the day Friday and into at least Saturday morning. Some weather maps scour the clouds out quickly on Saturday, leaving us with a milder day.

From there, a big high-pressure corridor builds across the entire Upper Midwest. That should leave us with bluebird skies from Sunday through possibly next Wednesday. That being said, we could be a little colder in the mornings as a result of the clear skies.

Colder mornings plus shorter days (OK, the daylight is shorter, not the actual day) means that leaves will begin to turn this week in northwestern Minnesota.

The high resolution and true-color satellites do not show much fall color yet, but the state’s Department of Natural Resources fall color map does show that changes are likely in rural northwestern Minnesota later this week. That’s pretty normal timing for the first pops of color. The DNR has the peak of fall colors around the Twin Cities slated for Oct. 19 as of now.

Brainerd is getting a new tool to help meteorologists and emergency officials better see developing weather, thanks to a partnership with weather technology company Climavision.

New radar will help the Brainerd Lakes area

A new weather radar designed to improve weather coverage across the Brainerd region will be unveiled Monday afternoon.

The radar is part of a partnership with weather technology company Climavision and is designed to provide additional coverage and a closer look at storms and other potentially dangerous weather — particularly closer to the ground.

The project is part of Climavision’s effort to fill gaps in the nation’s traditional weather radar network. While the National Weather Service’s Next Generation Weather Radar system (also called NEXRAD) provides broad and important coverage, terrain and the curvature of the Earth can limit what those radars can see at lower levels, particularly farther from the radar site.

That can be especially important in central and northern Minnesota, where portions of the state have historically had limited low-level radar coverage.

The new Brainerd-area radar will provide a closer look at weather systems moving through the region, giving emergency managers, forecasters and other users additional information to help make decisions during severe weather.

This radar will supplement, rather than replace, the National Weather Service's existing radar network, adding another layer of information for the region.

Officials and representatives from Climavision are expected to discuss the new radar during Monday afternoon’s unveiling in Brainerd.

Rain develops for much of Monday followed by clearing skies Monday night. Tuesday will be dry and pleasant. More substantial rain is possible to end the week again.

A wet Monday followed by a pleasant Tuesday

Rain in southwestern Minnesota will continue to fill in and advance east through the morning hours Monday. Look for periods of rain on and off for much of the day today before showers end west to east late afternoon into the late evening hours.

Many areas of central and southern Minnesota will see a decent rainfall of one-half inch to 1 inch or more in some spots when the rain ends Monday evening.

Temperatures will remain rain-cooled and not get out of the 60s across the state. It will also be quite windy with southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 to 40 mph.

Skies clear overnight and Tuesday looks pleasant with partly cloudy skies and slightly below normal temperatures. Highs will range from near 70 degrees south to just 60 degrees in the far north.

We remain in a somewhat active pattern this week. A weaker disturbance moves in Wednesday bringing some isolated to spotty showers to mainly central and southern Minnesota but a more potent, soaking system could develop Friday into Friday night.

Total rainfall this week between Monday’s system, Wednesday’s disturbance and the Friday system, could add up to some significant rainfall totals. Up to 2 to 4 total inches could fall, this would wipe out one-quarter to one-third of our rainfall needed to end the drought.

Temperatures will remain near or slightly cooler than normal all week before we see a warmup over the weekend.

A widespread soaking rain is expected to move across the region Monday, putting an end to the pleasant fall weather we’ve enjoyed this weekend.

Rainy start to the work week

Rain chances will increase through Monday as a storm system moves out of the western United States and deeper moisture surges into the Upper Midwest. With plenty of moisture available, rainfall could be efficient, meaning some areas may pick up a substantial amount of rain.

The biggest question is where the heaviest rain will fall. Forecast models continue to show a broad area capable of receiving 1 to 1.5 inches of rain, but the exact placement of that heavier band remains uncertain. Current forecasts favor the northern portion of the region, although the heaviest rain could ultimately shift farther south or east.

Rain will also keep temperatures noticeably cooler Monday, with widespread clouds and precipitation holding afternoon highs mainly in the 60s.

By Monday evening and overnight, the heaviest rain is expected to shift east of the region.

For Monday, the bottom line is simple: plan on a wet day, with widespread rain and the potential for 1 to 1.5 inches in the heaviest rainfall band. The exact location of that heavier rain remains the biggest forecast uncertainty.

A cooler weather pattern is taking hold across Minnesota, with temperatures running slightly below average Sunday. Widespread rainfall moves in Monday, bringing a wet start to the work week.

Light showers early south, then clearing

Sunday will start with plenty of clouds across southern Minnesota, along with a chance for a few light rain showers. A weak disturbance moving southeast through the region will help generate the showers, but high pressure nearby should keep rainfall amounts light.

Skies will gradually clear from west to east Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will remain on the cool side, with highs slightly below the seasonal average.

For our friends in the Northland, temperatures will drop into the low to mid-30s Sunday night, prompting a frost advisory through Monday morning.

Widespread rainfall Monday

Widespread rainfall moves in Monday as our weather pattern becomes much more active. A stronger storm system will move into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, bringing plenty of moisture northward as high pressure departs the region.

Rainfall will be relatively short-lived as the system moves through quickly, but much of Minnesota could pick up a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain. Communities closer to the front could see higher amounts, with 1 to 2 inches possible.

The Weather Prediction Center has placed southeastern Minnesota, central Wisconsin and much of Iowa under a slight risk for excessive rainfall.

After Monday's rain, the overall weather pattern will remain relatively cool. High pressure and a persistent ridge over the southeastern United States will help keep the main storm track and frontal boundary further to our south for at least part of the week. That should keep shower and thunderstorm activity away from the region, until later in the week.

For now, don't expect a major warm-up. Seasonably cool air looks likely to remain in place, with afternoon temperatures generally in the 60s and low 70s and overnight temperatures in the 30s, 40s and 50s.

While most Minnesotans settle in for the night, the skies above the state are expected to come alive with one of nature's great autumn migrations.

Look up, Minnesota!

The newest BirdCast forecast for Saturday night predicts roughly 321 million birds will be migrating across the continental United States. The forecast map shows a broad band of elevated migration stretching across the Upper Midwest, including Minnesota, as birds begin their seasonal journey south.

The migration is largely invisible from the ground. More than 80 percent of North America's migratory bird species travel at night, according to BirdCast, using the darkness to make long-distance journeys while taking advantage of cooler temperatures and, often, favorable winds.

For Minnesotans, that means the sky overhead Saturday night could be considerably busier than it appears. Birds typically begin taking off about 30 to 45 minutes after sunset, with the largest numbers often in the air two to three hours later.

The numbers are estimates generated from weather-radar observations and migration models, rather than a literal count of individual birds. BirdCast uses the nation's weather-surveillance radar network to detect birds moving through the atmosphere and forecast where migration will be most intense.

How to help the birds

There’s also a simple way for Minnesotans to help: turn off unnecessary outdoor lights tonight. Artificial light can attract and disorient migrating birds, increasing the risk of collisions with buildings and windows.

So while Minnesota’s night sky may look quiet, it could be anything but. High above the rooftops, lakes and forests, hundreds of thousands, potentially millions, of wings could be moving south through the darkness.

A cooler weather pattern is settling in, bringing an almost fall-like feel to the weekend. Sunshine and blustery winds will kick off the weekend Saturday, with seasonable temperatures settling in behind Friday night’s cold front.

Cooler weather pattern ahead with rain chances

A noticeable change in the weather pattern is underway across the Upper Midwest, with cooler temperatures settling in and rain chances increasing early next week. While widespread rain is expected Monday, total rainfall amounts have trended lower.

For much of the next week, temperatures will remain well below the recent summer warmth, with afternoon highs generally in the 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. Northern Minnesota could see some overnight temperatures dip into the 30s.

Friday nights cold front that brought severe weather to west-central Minnesota, will continue pushing southeast as high pressure settles in from the west.

Saturday will start out on the breezy side, with northwest winds around 10-20 mph. Winds will gradually ease through the afternoon and into the early evening as high pressure builds in.

Overall, Saturday will feature sunshine, lighter winds by late afternoon and seasonal temperatures in the 60s for northern Minnesota, to mid-70s in the south.

A small chance for showers will return early Sunday across parts of southern Minnesota, South Dakota and Iowa as a weak disturbance moves through the region. However, dry high pressure will remain in control farther north, making it difficult for showers to spread very far into central Minnesota.

Widespread rain for Monday

Monday is shaping up to be the wettest day of the week. A surge of moisture will move into the region, bringing widespread showers and periods of rain across the Upper Midwest. Most areas should see a steady soaking, although rainfall amounts have been trending lower in recent forecasts.

For now, many locations could pick up around one-quarter to three-quarters of an inch, with at least a half-inch looking likely for many areas.

Some spots could approach an inch or two if heavier pockets of rain develop and linger for a few hours. The heaviest thunderstorms are expected to stay farther south, mainly across Iowa, but parts southern Minnesota could still see some beneficial higher rainfall totals.

Seasonably cool weather appears likely to stick around for a while, with highs mainly in the 60s and lower 70s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. Northern Minnesota and northern/central Wisconsin could see occasional readings in the 30s.

Following the hottest and most muggy day of the week, there’s a mini severe weather window in the areas around the White Earth, Leech Lake and Red Lake reservations. The weekend is considerably cooler, with more widespread chilly rain on Monday.

Storm threats, timing Friday

In the midst of a humid and hotter Friday, storms are beginning to bubble up in the Dakotas, along with north-central Minnesota. They will push east Friday evening into the early overnight and will deliver a brief severe weather threat for parts of Minnesota, especially around Walker, Grand Rapids, Detroit Lakes, Bemidji and Brainerd.

All week long, we’ve had a slight risk of severe weather, Friday evening, encompassing, almost all of Minnesota. Check out the map at the top of the post. We think that the level 2 risk area, shaded in yellow, has been a little bit too large.

The storms have also sped up timing by about one hour compared to where things stood earlier in the week. The severe weather window is roughly 7 p.m. to 10 pm on Friday, although it could begin a little earlier and could remain a little later. the primary threat looks to be large hail.

When consulting a sounding, in this case, a weather balloon mockup that we created with software, there were 103 matches for similar storms that produced damaging hail in that part of Minnesota. There were much fewer damaging wind and tornado case studies in the similar part of the state.

We could still have an isolated tornado around 7 p.m. in North-central, Minnesota, and then some brief damaging winds until a little bit closer to midnight. But hail is the biggest deal this time around. By the time this Updraft is published, the storms have already started.

Given that our drought did not see much improvement this week, we could also use the rain in almost all parts of the state.

Rain will mostly be confined to the northern half of Minnesota and should be heaviest in the north eastern part of the state once these storms become more of a squall line later on.

Weekend planner

This all wraps up very early in the day on Saturday. There might be some fog on your Saturday where it rained heavier. We have off-and-on cloud cover and much cooler feel.

High temperatures are probably going to run about 10 to 15 degrees below where they were on Friday. With a midlevel low trailing the cold front, that will often produce often on darker clouds.

While one or two sprinkles are possible, widespread rain appears fairly unlikely for Minnesota on Saturday.

Sunday is still the toughest call on precipitation for the next week or so.

We do think that there will be some persisted and cooler rain showers for the southern third of Minnesota on Sunday. That’s exactly the kind of stuff that we need for a drought helper. High temperatures are likely to be even cooler, in the middle 60s for much of the state.

Monday is setting up to be our coldest high temperature since the middle of May. We are going to have widespread rain through much of the North Star State.

Those that do not get rain this time probably did get the rain on Friday. This balancing out should help everybody at least a little bit with the drought.

Many will not make it to 70 degrees heading into Monday afternoon. That includes the usual hotspots in the Mississippi and Minnesota river valleys, plus the urban heat Island around the Twin Cities.

Monday is not quite as cold as it once appeared, but we’ll still be well below average.

Following this quick taste of fall — and yes, that does include leaves dropping early in the rain and winds — we slowly begin to climb back above average heading closer to next weekend.

Birds on the wing this weekend

Hundreds of millions of birds will be surfing south this weekend behind Friday night’s cold front and the attendant midlevel low.

Flycatchers, warblers and orioles are expected to travel at 36 mph Saturday night, per Cornell University's BirdCast.

Looks like their average altitude is 6,600 feet! In Hennepin County alone, about 31,000 birds will fly over in just one night.

It’ll feel like summer again Friday with warm, muggy conditions. A cool front will spawn some storms overnight followed by cooler air. We’re also watching for rain potential Monday.

Warm, muggy Friday with storms possible Friday night followed by cooler air

It’ll be even warmer Friday with highs in the mid-80s for much of central and southern Minnesota, making it feel summerlike again. It will also be quite windy with south winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph, especially in southwestern Minnesota.

Dew points will also creep up into the 60s Friday into Friday night ahead of the next cool front, making it feel pretty humid, especially by evening.

The cool front will touch off showers and thunderstorms in northwestern Minnesota Friday late afternoon and evening which will then develop and spread eastward overnight.

Forecast models differ on how far south that development occurs, such as in the Twin Cities metro area. Activity will likely be more isolated in the Twin Cities and points south.

There’s a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for some severe storms to develop Friday evening and overnight for a large portion of the state.

Behind the front it’ll be cooler but pleasant and close to normal Saturday. High will range from the 60s north to the mid-70s south.

Sunday will be even cooler with highs in just the 60s pretty much statewide. Those readings are cooler than normal for a change. This will be the coolest air mass since mid-May.

Rain potential into Monday

We’re continuing to watch a system for early next week which could deliver plain old rain late Sunday into Monday. Forecast models have been trending south with the heaviest rainfall in recent runs.

Still, a decent rainfall looks possible for much of southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Up to 1 inch and maybe 2 inches could fall in some areas. Most of the rainfall in northern Minnesota comes Friday night and across southern Minnesota on Monday.

The map below show total forecast rainfall Friday through Tuesday.

Temperatures will continue to be near or just below normal into next week with most highs in the 60s and 70s and additional rain chances late week.

If you were to craft your ideal weather day, what would kind of features would be a ‘must?’ That’s subjective and would vary person to person. But we’d wager low humidity would be at the top of the list, perhaps blue skies (for many, though not all), a crisp morning to have your coffee outside with, paired with around 80 degrees in the afternoon. How does that sound? That’s effectively what we’ve had on Thursday but the changes are almost here!

Winds will begin to kick corn sweat farther north on Friday as an approaching storm system dives east from the Dakotas. Friday’s much-advertised rain and storms are leaving much to be desired for our drought. If you’d like to read a deeper dive into this week’s drought report, meteorologist Mandy Thalhuber has you covered right HERE. The daytime is quiet and humid, but largely rain-free. Rain is still coming, but certainly not for all of Minnesota. Even though the ‘yellow’ or ‘slight’ risk covers most of the state Friday night, it’ll mostly be northeastern and central Minnesota that get storms. Bemidji appears to be the bullseye for severe chances locally Friday night. If I were to put my chips on any city and any time on Friday, it would be there, from 9:00 pm - 12:00 am. High winds and an isolated tornado are both possible.

What about temps Friday and beyond? Friday is going to be pretty warm. Given the bias of weather maps to under-do pre-frontal heat, I imagine many spots will be in the middle 80s in southern Minnesota, likely in the Twin Cities, as well. We’re likely to see that same trend play out in the Minnesota River Valley, closer to the frontal forcing. In short, it will be a steamy day and pretty hot on Friday across most of the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

Saturday is trending cooler. With the cold air aloft behind Friday night’s developing front, it’s also likely we’ll have some dark clouds flare up, further adding a chill. Right now rain looks like a far-off chance Saturday, but I’ve been burned by this setup before - and highs will often under-perform in weather patterns just like this.

Sunday brings an ‘okay’ rain chance to southern parts of Minnesota. Highs will range from the middle 50s to lower 60s. There will be abundant cloud cover, regardless or rain, making it feel even cooler. Monday brings (by far) our best widespread rain chances in a while. Highs are unlikely to reach into the 60s across most of the state, and the rain could easily pile up above one inch. That doesn’t end the drought but should help gardens!

Following Monday’s rains, there’s a slow and steady climb of temperatures through next weekend.

Taking the good with the bad in the latest drought monitor update. Areas across the state saw improvement after our Labor Day rains, while other areas saw drought conditions expand.

Areas of relief, and areas of expansion

Minnesota’s latest drought monitor update shows a mixed picture as we head deeper into September. Compared with last week’s map, drought and abnormally dry conditions continue to cover much of the state, with the most serious pockets remaining concentrated across parts of central, eastern, southwestern and western Minnesota.

Looking at the Sept. 1 and Sept. 8 maps side by side, one of the biggest takeaways is that the drought pattern has not dramatically changed statewide. Severe drought still covers a significant portion of the state, although it has decreased from more than 52 percent to about 46 percent. Moderate drought also improved, dropping to around 70 percent.

There are some changes within the extreme drought category as well. While the southwestern corner of the state has been removed from the extreme drought designation, the area has expanded across the southeastern metro.

There are also signs of improvement in portions of Minnesota, where recent rainfall has helped ease short-term dryness. Labor Day rainfall brought some much-needed improvement to the western corners of the state, with several inches of rain reported in some areas.

That distinction is especially important in September. A soaking rain can quickly improve topsoil moisture and provide relief for lawns, pastures and crops, but it doesn't necessarily erase the longer-term impacts of drought on groundwater, lakes and streams.

To completely end drought conditions across Minnesota over the next two months, we would need a substantial amount of additional rainfall, anywhere from about 5 inches to more than 12 inches, depending on the location.

The current precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center offers at least some encouragement, with above-average chances for rainfall across parts of the region through mid-September. More rain would be welcome, especially given how much is needed to make meaningful progress on the drought.

After a cool start, warmer air is already moving back in for Thursday and Friday. The next cool front will touch off some storms Friday night, followed by cooler temperatures again.

Warming Thursday and Friday; storms possible Friday night

It’s a cool start — especially up north — early Thursday morning but we’ll be warming back up Thursday and especially Friday. Look for lots of sun Thursday with highs back near 80 degrees in the Twin Cities with low to mid-80s west and 70s north.

Friday will be even warmer and muggier dew points also return. Highs Friday will be well into the 80s for most of central, southern and western Minnesota along with dew points increasing into the 60s.

The next cool front is slated to move through Friday night. It will touch off at least some scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially for central and northern Minnesota.

Some storms could be strong to severe Friday night. There’s a slight risk (level 2 of 5) forecast for a large swath of Minnesota.

Behind the front, temperatures will cool off again into the 60s and 70s for Sunday and Monday.

We’re also watching a hopeful system that could deliver significant rainfall to a large portion of Minnesota. Rain showers could develop late Sunday into Monday and Monday night.

Some forecast models paint Minnesota with anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of rainfall. Forecast models have trended south from Wednesday, however.

The maps below show three forecast model scenarios for total rainfall expected Monday. The maps on top are model runs made today. The maps on the bottom are from Wednesday’s model runs.

Each model has moved about 100 miles (or more) south from Wednesday’s forecasts.

Following a windy day with nearly full sunshine, big waves on Superior, and millions of birds surfing south behind the latest cold front, we have some changes in store beginning on Thursday.

We can’t just bypass Wednesday evening, which looks lovely. There may be just a few cirrus clouds to go along with milder weather. Those clouds still leave us with a vibrant sunset. For the students already back to school, it’s likely to be a little chilly at the morning’s bus stop.

Many in northern Minnesota — especially in the protected valleys near the Iron Range — will be well down into the 40s. A few ‘usual suspect’ places like Tower, Hibbing and Embarrass are likely to be even cooler!

In southern Minnesota, we’re down in the lower-to-middle 50s very briefly. This being early September, we’re still off to the races. Temperatures will eventually get to the lower, or even the middle, 80s around the Twin Cities.

We should have a great setup to see both the Milky Way and Andromeda this week due to the new moon. Andromeda is in the northeastern sky this time of year, and we’ll have clear skies in the middle of Thursday night if you’re hoping to see two galaxies at once.

Much of Friday is really pleasant, though with storms approaching, we imagine you’ll quickly notice the bump in heat and humidity. For the workweek, Friday is likely to be the hottest and most muggy day we have.

That’s not only true in the Corn Sweat belt, but pushing well north into Minnesota and likely continuing into far southern Canada. As a low pressure center strengthens right over Minnesota, rain will probably begin to gather after 5 p.m.

What's really unique is that the rain develops “from scratch” right over us. Often we will see storms sweeping in from the Dakotas. Not this time around! A few of those storms around 8 p.m. to 12 a.m. could be severe with damaging winds and some medium sized hail.

While this is not the peak season for severe weather, and it’s at a fairly odd time of day, the Storm Prediction Center has been highlighting this threat area over Minnesota for days now.

By Saturday’s daylight hours, we may have some brief fog. It’s a cooler day, for sure, but should be dry. Sunday is a tough forecast, for sure! The last few editions of the European deterministic model have a super-soggy day across central and southern Minnesota, and look much cooler.

The American (at least one map, the GFS) map has us dry, and thus, quite a bit warmer. Both maps do have some good soaking rains on Monday across a large footprint of Minnesota. Many might never even hit 60 degrees next Monday! While most of next week has below average temperatures, we will warm up a little bit from Monday’s bottoming-out point.

It’ll be a pleasant Wednesday with cooler and breezy conditions. Temperatures warm again Thursday and Friday. The next chance of storms comes Friday night.

Cooler, breezy Wednesday

Cooler conditions have settled in for Wednesday. We’ll have partly cloudy skies in the wake of Tuesday’s cool front. Afternoon highs will be in the 70s for most with 60s in northern Minnesota. These high temperatures are actually pretty close to normal for Sept. 9.

It’ll also be pretty breezy with northwest winds blowing at 10 to 20 mph throughout the day, adding a bit of a chill to the air when combined with lower dew points in the 50s. Wind gusts will be as high as 30 to 35 mph for some.

A cooler overnight Wednesday into Thursday is on the way as well. We’ll see temperatures dip into the 40s in northern Minnesota with pockets of 30s on the Iron Range. Southern Minnesota will see lows in the 50s. These overnight lows are actually close to normal, too.

Warmer Thursday, Friday

Thursday is warmer as winds become south once again. High temperatures will return to the 80s in western Minnesota and the Twin Cities. Highs Friday will be summerlike again with low to mid-80s across much of central and southern Minnesota.

It will also become more muggy again with dew points in the 60s, at least briefly, for Friday into Friday night ahead of another cool front.

That cool front will touch off the next chance of some storms Friday night, some of which could be strong.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center is already monitoring late Friday into Friday night for possible severe weather. A slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms is forecast for Friday night.

Following the cool front will be our coolest air mass since mid-May, likely. Highs temperatures will struggle to reach 70 degrees Sunday and Monday even in southern Minnesota. We’re also monitoring a system that could bring significant rainfall Sunday into Monday.

Forecast models vary with the placement of the heaviest rainfall but parts of Minnesota could see more than 2 inches of needed moisture.

Minnesota’s coldest weather since mid-May is on the way. Highs in the 50s will be widespread early next week. There could be some strong storms Friday night that set the temperature change into motion.

Brief showers chances Tuesday night; Wednesday’s windy

We’ll see overcast skies and cooler temperatures Tuesday evening. We may see a couple of brief rain showers in eastern and southern Minnesota around dinner time. A few of those could clip the Twin Cities.

On Wednesday, we’ll be around average in southern Minnesota — 50s to near 60 for lows, upper 70s to 80 for highs.

It will be windy statewide. There’s an early September gale warning up for Lake Superior. The fetch is coming out of the west-northwest and the big waves will be in the middle of the lake.

The strong winds will make it much cooler along the North Shore and the Iron Range. Some spots may not make it out of the 50s.

The strongest winds Wednesday are likely to be downslope gusts diving into the Minnesota River Valley. They’ll race east out of South Dakota and nosedive off of Buffalo Ridge in southwestern Minnesota.

We’ll see more leaves coming down across the state. They’ve come down earlier this season because of drought, not because of peak foliage color.

Friday storm potential

Thursday’s weather looks quiet. By Friday night, though, we’re in the bull’s-eye for storm risk as a powerful 994 mb low forms over the state.

“Severe potential could develop across portions of the Plains into the Upper Midwest, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center.

Given the timing, though, severe weather seems rather unlikely.

Another blockbuster low arrives on Monday. It’ll bring rain that will help ease some drought conditions. although it won’t eliminate drought anywhere in the state.

It will also lead to a temperature drop into next week.

For next Monday, many weather maps don’t even have the Twin Cities getting out of the 50s during the day. Other parts of the state may be much colder. Later on that week, we start to climb a little bit, but we could still be below normal.

We’ll have scattered showers and storms Tuesday. Wednesday will be cooler and breezy behind a cool front with more storm chances late Friday.

Unsettled Tuesday followed by cooler air Wednesday

Most of Minnesota saw at least some rainfall over the holiday weekend. In western Minnesota much of it was Saturday night into Sunday and for eastern Minnesota it came largely Monday night into early Tuesday.

We have some scattered showers and thunderstorms early Tuesday. We’ll get a mainly dry midday break with potential redevelopment of at least some spotty showers and storms again Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in southeastern Minnesota.

There’s a marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk for southeast Minnesota into southwestern Wisconsin. A couple of isolated storms could produce large hail or damaging wind gusts Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Between showers we’ll see steamy conditions with highs in the low to mid-80s. Dew points will be near 70 degrees.

That muggy and warm air will depart Tuesday night as a cool front blows in cooler and drier air. Dew points will drop from near 70 degrees into the 50s for Wednesday.

Highs Wednesday will be considerably cooler, especially north. Highs will be in the upper 70s south to just mid-60s north. It will also be breezy with northwest winds blowing at 10 to 20 mph Wednesday.

That will set us up for a cool overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Lows will be in the 50s south to 40s north with some 30s on portions of the Iron Range.

We’ll see conditions warm back up for Thursday and Friday — back in the 80s — ahead of another cool front that will also touch off our next chance of some thunderstorms late Friday into Friday night.

Behind that front we could see some our coolest air since mid-May for early next week with highs mainly in the 60s.

The final day of the fair and Labor Day will feature a mostly quiet and dry start, with warm temperatures and breezy southeasterly winds. Most of the day should remain dry before a cold front approaches Monday evening, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms into the evening and overnight hours.

Labor Day starts nice, but storms return later

It’s the final day of the Minnesota State Fair and Labor Day, and for much of the area, the weather will start out looking pretty decent. Temperatures will climb to around 80 degrees, but it will be breezy with southeasterly winds gusting between 25 and 35 mph. Our dew points remain elevated in the lower to mid-60s.

The bigger weather story arrives later today and tonight, when a west-to-east moving cold front brings multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. This cold front will slowly work eastward through the region, but it is not expected to pass through until early Tuesday morning. Before that happens, we could see one or even two rounds of thunderstorms.

The good news is that this is not expected to be a widespread severe weather event. A few storms could produce gusty winds and large hail, but the overall severe-weather threat remains marginal.

Any lingering showers and clouds should gradually clear by around midday Tuesday. There could be another round of storms during Tuesday afternoon along the stalled boundary. Outside of that possibility, the forecast becomes much quieter.

Wednesday and Thursday currently look like the pick of the week, with drier air and more comfortable temperatures settling in.

A slow-moving storm system is bringing rounds of soaking rain and thunderstorms to southwestern Minnesota Sunday.

Nearly stationary storms bring heavy rain threat

Heavy rain is expected to remain the primary weather threat through Sunday evening. Rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour are possible, and localized storm totals of 3 to 5 inches.

Some parts of southern Minnesota have already received 3 to 4 inches of rain in just one to three hours. As a result, a flood watch and flash flood warnings remain in effect through late Sunday evening, with additional thunderstorms expected to move across areas already saturated by earlier rainfall.

Storms could continue developing through Sunday evening as a disturbance slowly moves east. While thunderstorms are expected to weaken after sunset, additional showers and isolated thunderstorms could return overnight.

Those overnight storms are not expected to pose a major severe-weather threat, but any shower could still produce a burst of heavy rain.

Sunday is shaping up to be a warm and humid day at the Minnesota State Fair, with steamy dew points remaining in the 60s and afternoon temperatures climbing into the lower 80s.

For fairgoers in the Twin Cities, the overall forecast looks favorable, although there is a chance for rain and thunderstorms farther west.

Sultry Sunday with late sunshine

After areas of patchy fog and cloud cover early, expect a mix of sunshine and clouds developing in the afternoon, with temperatures warming into the low 80s.

Dew points in the 60s will make it feel noticeably humid once again, especially during the afternoon.

The heat won't be extreme, but the combination of warmth and humidity could make a busy day walking around the fairgrounds feel a little steamy.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Sunday afternoon and evening across western Minnesota, where instability will be greatest.

A few of those storms could become strong, with gusty winds and hail possible. However, the storm activity should have a difficult time maintaining strength as it moves east.

Overall, fairgoers can expect another pleasant day at the Minnesota State Fair, with warm temperatures, elevated humidity, and generally dry weather sticking around.

It’s not everyday you can talk about mist, fog, an early fall chill, and intense heat, all within one state. That was the case on Friday and it’s more of what we are expecting on Saturday. For the Great Minnesota Get Together, we’re likely going to kick off the opening with lots of fog, or at least a lower cloud deck - we were somewhere in the middle of both on Friday.

Then, with the state splitting into two halves - much hotter in the southern parts of Minnesota, only in the lower 70s across the northern sections - we will slowly work the sunshine back in. If the rain can burst through a weak cap late Saturday morning, we may get some more clouds spreading towards the Minnesota State Fair.

That said, the rain will not be affecting the Minnesota State Fair, at least on Saturday. It will be another hot one along Como and Snelling. Sunday morning has a quick potential of rain and the final day of the fair, Labor Day Monday, could bring the best chance of rain of all!

A steamy airmass remains in place Friday through the holiday weekend. We’ll have sunshine Friday, but periodic storms are possible over the weekend and especially early next week.

Hot, humid holiday weekend with periodic thunderstorms

It’ll be a hot one Friday across southern Minnesota to kick off the holiday weekend.

Highs will be in the low 90s south to just mid-70s north. All of those afternoon highs are above normal, however. A heat advisory is posted for the Twin Cities metro area for Friday afternoon and evening.

Dew points will remain tropical, in the upper 60s to 70s at times, right through the weekend. That combination of heat and humidity will make it feel like it’s 95 to 100 degrees across southern Minnesota Friday afternoon.

Saturday will again be very warm with partly cloudy skies. Highs will range from near 90 southwest to near 80 in the northeastern part of the state. Cooler temperatures will prevail immediately near Lake Superior.

We’ll also see the chance of some periodic storms to develop in northwestern Minnesota late Saturday and potentially nearly statewide Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

There will be better chances of perhaps more widespread rain and thunder late Sunday into Labor Day and Tuesday.

The rainfall could add up to a significant soaking of up to 1 to 2 inches across much of central and northern Minnesota through Tuesday. It won’t be enough to undo the drought, but could dent it a little bit.