A slight risk for severe storms returns to parts of Minnesota Sunday night as scattered thunderstorms develop during the evening hours and track east overnight. A few storms could produce large hail and damaging winds before quieter, but much hotter, weather settles in for Memorial Day.

Stormy Sunday night

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this Sunday evening across western and southwestern Minnesota before spreading eastward into central and southeastern Minnesota overnight. Some storms may also reach western Wisconsin by early Monday morning.

A few storms could become strong to severe, especially across southwest and west-central Minnesota. The main threats include large hail and damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center issued a slight risk for southwestern Minnesota.

A severe thunderstorm watch is out for southwestern Minnesota until 11 p.m.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 243 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota Northeast Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...High-based supercells are expected from northeast Nebraska across southeast South Dakota into southwest Minnesota this evening, and storms could spread into northwest Iowa before weakening early tonight. The storms will be capable of producing large hail (1.5-2 inches in diameter) and isolated severe outflow gusts (60-65 mph). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Redwood Falls MN to 30 miles west southwest of Norfolk NE.

Storms develop in the early evening hours and will rapidly move east towards western Wisconsin by early Monday morning.

Mild overnight temperatures will only fall into the 50s and 60s across most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin, though cooler air across the Arrowhead region will allow lows to dip into the 40s.

By Memorial Day morning, lingering showers and storms should move out, with skies gradually clearing through the late morning hours.

The afternoon will feel much more summer-like as southerly winds increase and temperatures surge into the upper 80s.

Humidity levels will also begin to rise, with dew points climbing into the lower 60s and lasting through at least midweek.

The warmest stretch of the forecast arrives Tuesday, with low 90s scattered across the maps.

After our tease of summer, we’ll see a dry, more comfortable weather pattern take hold to start meteorological summer. Expected more seasonal temperatures and dew points dropping into the 30s and 40s.

Summerlike warmth and sunshine for our Sunday, with thunderstorm chances returning Sunday night into early Memorial Day.

Morning fog clears; sunshine and 80s ahead

Areas of fog splattered across the state early Sunday, particularly heavy in northeastern Minnesota, where a dense fog advisory continues until 10 a.m.

Once the fog lifts, a beautiful Sunday sets in with high pressure and temperatures warming into the upper 70s to low 80s.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Sunday night from southwest into central Minnesota before spreading eastward into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin overnight into Monday morning. While a few storms may produce brief downpours and lightning, the overall severe weather threat appears low.

Warmer air builds into the Upper Midwest by Memorial Day afternoon. Highs Monday will push into the upper 80s in many areas, accompanied by increasing humidity.

The hottest weather of the week will occur on Tuesday, when the Twin Cities could see its first 90 degree reading of the year.

Our stubborn cloud cover lingered across much of Minnesota Saturday afternoon, though clearing has already started to develop in southern Minnesota and around parts of the Twin Cities metro. Those skies should continue to improve through the evening, leading to mostly clear conditions overnight and a calmer start to Sunday.

Low temperatures drop into the low to mid-40s in northern and central Minnesota, with some upper 40s to low 50s for southern portions.

Sunday will bring noticeably warmer temperatures, with highs climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s for many areas. Increasing clouds develop late in the day ahead of our next weathermaker from the west.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop Sunday evening across southern Minnesota before spreading east into western Wisconsin overnight and into Monday morning. There could be some lingering thunderstorms early Monday morning, but a majority of the state will be dry on Memorial Day.

Behind the departing system, a strong warming trend will settle into the region through much of next week.

Tuesday currently looks to be the hottest day of the stretch, with highs potentially reaching the low 90s in portions of southern and central Minnesota.

A stubborn deck of clouds and a few lingering showers will hang on across northern Minnesota Saturday as a slow-moving cold front continues to drift east. Farther south, skies will gradually brighten through the afternoon with increasing sunshine helping temperatures rebound ahead of a much warmer stretch heading into the second half of Memorial Day weekend.

Lingering clouds with spotty showers

Clouds and scattered showers will linger across northern Minnesota as a slow-moving low pressure system gradually pushes northeast through the Upper Midwest.

The good news is that once this system moves out, we’re in for a pretty nice stretch of weather for the rest of the Memorial Day weekend.

Clouds lingering across northern Minnesota will keep temperatures cooler, with highs in the low 60s, while areas farther south will see increasing sunshine and temperatures warming into the low 70s this afternoon.

A few pop-up afternoon showers are possible across central and northern Minnesota Saturday, but they’ll be isolated and brief, nothing that should get in the way of any holiday weekend plans.

Temperatures will start climbing Sunday as southerly winds return to the Upper Midwest. Afternoon highs will jump into the 80s Sunday, with many locations warming into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees by Memorial Day and Tuesday.

Moisture will also start building back in as air from the Gulf pushes north, with dew points rising into the 50s and 60s and a more humid feel returning.

Rain opportunities look few and far between for much of the upcoming week. The best chance for scattered showers or thunderstorms appears to arrive Sunday night into Memorial Day, mainly from southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

Towards the end of each month, the Climate Prediction Center puts out its new 90 day outlook. That trend looks like a vintage lava lamp of colorful blobs drawn across America, and uses broader long-range trends to estimate things like drought or warm spells, and lengthy cooldowns. The ‘meteorological summer’ version is fresh out this week, for June-August.

What does it show for Minnesota? Well nothing really for temperatures. Minnesota is ‘equal chances,’ which in theory means pretty normal temperatures. What’s more compelling is the drier-than-normal prediction for all of Minnesota, one of a few spots across the country that fall into this.

Often, when we get a stronger El Niño, the subtropical jet stream dives south. It curls around a broad Pacific and Gulf duo of troughs, and dips under the Canada/Minnesota high pressure zone. The jet stream is a real-life river of upper level winds on which many storms travel. If there was a semi-permanent blocking feature, we could expect fewer storms. Of course it only takes a single storm to dump rain on us, so these trend lines are not always the most reliable predictor of future weather. What does the MPR weather team have to say about the new 90 day outlook, farming, and El Niño?

Meteorologist Sven Sundgaard: “I take any forecast calling for ‘equal chances’ or odds of cooler summer temps with a grain of salt for sure as 20 of the last 26 summers (77 percent) have all been above normal in the Twin Cities… we don’t necessarily see extreme heat like in other parts of the country but we’re seeing consistently warmer summers… my anecdotal theory is that there’s just much less cool air in Canada. 30+ years ago we’d routinely get nice breaks of 70s in the summer… that rarely happens anymore… so rather than more 90 degree days (which that trendline is flat): we’re seeing less cooler days, to balance out averages in summer…”

Meteorologist Mandy Thalhuber: As of May 18, 86 percent of Minnesota’s corn crop had been planted, well ahead of last year’s 74 percent pace and just shy of the recent five-year average of 90 percent. Soybean planting also moved quickly, reaching 74 percent complete compared to the five-year average of 53 percent and slightly behind last year’s 77 percent. Favorable spring field conditions have allowed corn and soybean farmers to make rapid planting progress across much of the state.

Looking ahead, the Climate Prediction Center 90-day outlook for Minnesota calls for equal chances of above, near, or below-normal temperatures, while precipitation trends lean toward below-normal across much of the state.

Strong early planting progress has set the stage for the season, but now that momentum runs into a more uncertain summer weather pattern. With temperatures showing equal chances of being above, near, or below normal, and precipitation leaning drier than average, it really comes down to how the rainfall plays out through the summer. The difference between good and tough crop conditions may simply be whether timely rains show up when the crop needs them most.

Chief Meteorologist Ben Cathey: “As a meteorologist and numbers geek, I love getting new maps in, especially for longer-range forecasting. We wait for the CPC - or at least I do - 90 day outlook like it’s Christmas morning. Embarrassing? For the drought extending forecast of drier-than-normal summer conditions across all of Minnesota, it’s questionable. The data (we call this an analog) of matching El Niño conditions actually shows a little more moisture above Minnesota, though it’s not necessarily a huge trend. We’re almost past the ‘spring predictability barrier’ that can hurt ENSO accuracy. A strong El Niño is on the way but we may not have bigger impacts from that until winter 2026/2027.

Memorial Day weekend forecast features a cool, soaking start followed by a warm and increasingly summerlike finish.

Warm, dry weather follows soggy start to holiday weekend

A strong spring storm system moving out of the Rockies will bring widespread rain showers to mainly western Minnesota Friday with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall expected through Friday night. Some rumbles of thunder are possible, but severe weather is not anticipated.

Healthy rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches are possible across western Minnesota, bringing much-needed moisture to parts of southwestern Minnesota that continue to experience severe drought conditions.

Scattered showers and areas of light rain will continue into early Saturday, especially across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Rain chances will gradually decrease through the afternoon as the storm system pulls farther into Canada.

Clouds may linger for much of the day, with highs ranging from the slightly cooler low 60s in northern Minnesota to the low 70s farther south, right around seasonal averages for late May.

The second half of the holiday weekend looks significantly better. By Sunday, the larger storm system will begin moving out of the Upper Midwest, allowing temperatures to rebound quickly. Most areas should stay dry, although a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out.

Our highs for Sunday will climb into the 70s and 80s across the region, providing a much more comfortable and summerlike feel heading into Memorial Day.

Memorial Day itself looks even warmer with highs climbing well into the upper 80s across much of Minnesota. A few locations could even touch 90 degrees, especially in western and southern Minnesota.

Our warm pattern doesn’t stop after the holiday. Warm and mainly dry weather is expected to continue through much of next week across Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

The hottest days look to be Monday and Tuesday, when temperatures climb into the upper 80s, with a few spots possibly reaching 90 degrees.

By the second half of next week, temperatures should ease slightly back into the lower 80s, but overall conditions will remain pleasant with very limited chances for rain.

Rain across southern Minnesota Friday will expand statewide into Friday night and early Saturday. Brighter and warmer conditions prevail Sunday and Monday into next week.

Rain showers into Friday night, then a warmup

Scattered rain showers will continue to develop and expand north and northeast slowly through the day Friday. We’ll have spotty morning showers in eastern Minnesota and the Twin Cities with a steady rain developing west.

We’ll see more showers overnight in eastern Minnesota while the system exits to the north and northeast.

Rainfall totals will be heaviest as a result in western Minnesota with considerably lighter amounts in the eastern part of the state. Most rain looks to wrap up Saturday morning.

Temperatures will be cooler than normal again, especially in western Minnesota where temperatures likely will remain in the 50s.

Clouds will slowly decrease Saturday with the most sun breaking out in southwestern Minnesota into the afternoon hours. As a result, temperatures will start warm up just a bit Saturday with highs ranging from near 70 in southern Minnesota to near 60 north.

Sunday and Memorial Day will see brighter skies and much warmer temperatures. Highs will warm into the 70s and even 80s for Monday. While some isolated thunder cannot be ruled out — especially Sunday night — most will remain mainly dry.

Next week looks summerlike with highs in the 80s with potentially some 90-degree highs. In fact, most forecast models have us reaching 90 degrees multiple times within the next 14 days.

Thursday morning’s bank of altocumulus clouds is quickly dissipating, leaving a slightly warmer afternoon with abundant sunshine throughout Minnesota. We have a terrific late May patio evening for you and the family, so I hope you can enjoy the gorgeous weather.

Along with the beauty, there’s an enhanced danger of wildfires spreading — but only if they start, so be careful — around Roseau and Thief River Falls. The relative humidity and wind are coupling to dry out the surface moisture Thursday and into the start of Friday.

Friday is definitely a day of change. Rain is back for much of the state Friday night into Saturday morning. The rain will move from the southwest to the northeast, reaching the North Shore by Saturday.

As of now, the better rain amounts look to be in the southwestern parts of the state. That’s where drought has been strongest.

The U.S. Drought Monitor report for Minnesota posted Thursday shows a tiny pocket of severe drought in the far southwestern corner, near the South Dakota state line. There’s also an area of moderate drought in north-central Minnesota near the Iron Range.

Point is: this rain should be helpful, but you may not necessarily want it on a holiday weekend.

Saturday brings about temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees, as the clouds begin to break apart. When we get these May fronts, there’s often a cool wave between 30 to 40 hours after the front. That means that Sunday morning should be a little bit chilly.

Despite that, Sunday should be really warm during the later daylight hours. We make a run at 80 degrees in the Twin Cities, a little cooler farther north.

If you’re heading toward the North Shore or Boundary Waters, Mesabi Trail or wherever your crew goes, you will still want a jacket for evening warmth, but it’s not cold.

Memorial Day

Then we’re onto Memorial Day. This looks to be a real transition day for a big-time warmup on the calendar to last quite a while. We are even pushing 90 degrees in far southern Minnesota, along the Iowa border.

That said, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast model do show a couple of pop-up storms in southern Minnesota late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Right now, that looks to be a small threat but we’ll continue to watch.

Much of next week should be really warm and mostly dry. The next potent rainmaker potential is later next Saturday, May 30.

We’ll see another seasonably cool day Thursday with dry weather. The next disturbance will develop rain showers Friday into early Saturday. Temps trend upward this weekend.

Dry, cool weather persists Thursday but rain is on the way late Friday

It’s a cool start again but not as cold as yesterday morning. Once again we’ll see cooler than normal temperatures with highs mostly in the 60s with 50s in the Arrowhead and North Shore. Look for some sunshine with occasional mid-level clouds moving through. We’ll remain dry statewide today into tonight.

The next disturbance is an upper level trough or wave slowly moving through the region Friday into Saturday. Rain showers will develop in southwest Minnesota early Friday and slowly expand north and northeast, reaching the Twin Cities by late in the day Friday.

Rainfall will be heaviest in western Minnesota with considerably lighter rainfall amounts in eastern Minnesota overall.

We’ll remain on the cool side of normal due to the clouds and unsettled conditions Friday and Saturday. Highs both days will be in the 60s and 50s mostly.

Sunshine breaks back out Sunday and Memorial Day however and that will really allow temperatures to warm up as an upper level high pressure ridge moves in.

Temps will be summer-like starting Sunday into all of next week with 70s and 80s building in. The chart below is from NOAA’s National Blend of Models (NBM), a sort of weighted average of the forecast models for high and low temperatures for the Twin Cities area into next week. We could even have our first 90-degree day in the Twin Cities later next week.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gives Minnesota up to 70 to 80 percent odds of warmer than normal temperatures in the 6 to 10 day forecast period (May 26-30).

There’s a big signal blinking in the longer range forecast, a sign of an incoming warming trend lasting well into next week.

There will be a few high clouds up in the Iron Range and North Shore for the tail end of Wednesday. We will be comfortable, with a fairly seasonable high in the lower 60s around the Twin Cities and slightly cooler farther to the north.

Some weather tools show fog developing before midnight between Lake of the Woods in northern Minnesota and Big Stone Lake in western Minnesota that could linger into Thursday morning.

Temperature-wise, we won’t be quite as cold in the Twin Cities, likely only down into the low to mid-40s. There may be some patches of frost lingering in northeastern Minnesota, but that’s not unusual even for the last few days of May.

Some mid-level cloud cover begins to roll into southern Minnesota from Luverne to Rochester by late Thursday morning.

We’ll drop off many of the early clouds, becoming largely sun-filled by the end of the day. Highs will move into the upper 60s by Thursday’s warmest point, likely around 4 p.m.

The high-pressure corridor begins to weaken Friday, allowing some rain showers to move in late evening. These start out in southwestern Minnesota, moving up toward St. Paul and Minneapolis after dark.

Much of the rain moves northeast by late morning on Saturday. Temperatures are still fairly standard across the state, in the mid-60s. There’s a noticeable warmup happening on Sunday. Some spots in southern Minnesota may reach 80 degrees.

We could even eclipse 80 on Memorial Day. Knock on wood, but Sunday and Monday are looking really lovely, apart from an isolated shower in the far northwestern edges of the state.

A run at the mid-80s is certainly within reason by the middle of next week, and a couple of towns could race towards an isolated 90 degrees by next Thursday!

We’ll see cooler-than-normal temperatures Wednesday behind the system from the last two days. It’ll also be windy with some lingering showers. Brighter and warmer conditions will return.

High pressure brings brighter skies

It was a chilly start with frosty conditions for some, especially up north. Temperatures just after sunrise were in the 30s for much of the state with the exception of parts of the Twin Cities and southeast Minnesota.

Temperatures on Wednesday will continue to be below normal by about 5 or 10 degrees, but warmer than Tuesday thanks to some sunshine. You can thank high pressure for brightening up the skies. With chilly air aloft, we’ll see some clouds fill in at times.

Temperatures won’t be as cold Wednesday night with lows mostly in the 40s. Northeastern Minnesota will see some lows in the 30s. Thursday will bring partly cloudy skies again with highs back in the 60s with cooler pockets in the Arrowhead and along the North Shore.

Temperatures will continue to warm over the holiday weekend. Highs will reach 70 in southern Minnesota by Saturday with 70s and even 80s by Sunday and Monday.

We’ll also see our next chance of rainfall late Friday into Saturday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could to develop. Chances are more isolated for Sunday and Monday.

The warmer pattern developing over the weekend is the result of an upper-level high pressure ridge of warmth building into central North America by later in the weekend and next week.

Next week looks summerlike with highs mostly in the 80s and 70s with dry weather and a fair amount of sunshine. Most of our forecast models have us reaching 90 degrees at some point in the next seven to 14 days.

If you thought the recent sunshine and warmth were the start of something semi-permanent, you might be in for a rude awakening come Wednesday morning. A freeze warning and frost advisory cover most of the state.

Cold conditions

Have you done some planting already? Time to get those blankets out for overnight cover into Wednesday morning.

Some isolated freezing fog is even possible in the far north and near Lake Superior. That could very briefly lead to slippery roads right around dawn on Wednesday.

Here’s a closer look at the temperature forecast up north from the Duluth National Weather Service office:

Here’s the Twin Cities weather service office:

Memorial Day looks dry

By the middle of the week, we’re a shade more optimistic for sunshine in patches along with a slow and subtle warming trend heading into Memorial Day Weekend.

For the Twin Cities, that means more sunshine Wednesday with highs in the lower to mid-60s. Temperatures will continue to rise to the upper 60s and perhaps near 70 degrees on Friday.

Friday to Friday night is the more unsettled part of the weekend.

As of now, the best chance for rain is Friday night into Saturday morning. There will also be a few isolated to scattered showers and storms during the day on Saturday, but we’re not looking at an all day deal or washout.

The better news for Memorial Day is that we’re looking dry and mild, perfect for any outdoor plans.

We’ll see cooler-than-normal temperatures Tuesday behind the system of the last two days. It’ll also be windy with some lingering showers. Brighter and warmer conditions will return.

Cool, windy with some lingering showers Tuesday before late-week warmup

There will be some lingering instability with cool air aloft, allowing for some potential pop-up showers to develop Tuesday afternoon, especially in northern and western Minnesota.

We’ll see lots of clouds in addition to much cooler air moving in. Tuesday afternoon highs will only be in the 50s and 40s across the state. Those readings are about 10 to 20 degrees cooler than normal.

Northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph will make it feel even chillier through the day Tuesday as an early April-like air mass moves in.

The cool day will set us up for a chilly overnight. Northern Minnesota will be frosty with lows falling into the low 30s while southern Minnesota will see temps dip into the upper 30s and low 40s.

There is a frost advisory Tuesday night for southwestern Minnesota, including Worthington and Marshall.

Clouds should break up more for Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure sets into the region. That will also help us to warm up some as well.

Wednesday will be warmer thanks to some sunshine, but still a little below normal. Normal highs now are around 70 degrees in southern Minnesota. Highs will be in the 60s for most on Wednesday and Thursday with cooler pockets in northeastern Minnesota.

Temperatures will warm again in time for the holiday weekend with 70s and even 80s possible by the end of the weekend.

It will be somewhat unsettled though this weekend with the next best chance of showers and thunder chances Friday night into Saturday morning. Chances look more isolated Sunday and Monday.

Expect another round of showers and storms Monday night, wrapping up by Tuesday morning. Cooler weather comes midweek with rain chances increasing toward the holiday weekend.

Rain showers Monday night; cooler Tuesday

The forecast is calling for another chance of beneficial rainfall as another system moves in from the central Plains. Amounts will range from one-half inch to more than 1 inch in some locations. Look for showers and thunderstorms to roll through between 8 p.m. and 1 a.m.

There’s a marginal risk that southeastern Minnesota could see a stronger storm or two with marginally large hail and strong winds. The greater risk remains south in Iowa.

Temperatures will drop into mid to upper 30s for northern Minnesota, low 40s in central Minnesota and mid-40s to the southeast.

A cooldown is on the way for midweek with high temperatures struggling to get out of the 50s, and cooler 40s up north.

We’ll see more showers and storms develop later Monday into Monday night. Cooler weather follows the system midweek. Warmer, unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend.

More showers, storms late Monday, then a brief cooldown

Much of southern Minnesota saw some beneficial rains of 1 to 2 or more inches. Northern Minnesota saw much less or even little rainfall at all. Mapleton, south of Mankato saw a whopping 3.72 inches of rain.

Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport received 1.14 inches of rain. Prior to Sunday night’s storm, the Twin Cities only had 4 one-hundredths of an inch of rain for the month, making it the third driest start to May.

Clouds will linger Monday and there will be quite the temperature contrast from northwest to southeast. Highs will range from near 80 in far southeastern Minnesota to the 50s far north and northwest.

Round two of our latest storm system will develop more showers and thunderstorms in far southern Minnesota by mid afternoon. Those showers and storms will expand north and northeast into Monday evening and overnight.

Storms that develop could be severe in southeastern Minnesota. There’s a slight risk (level 2 of 5) forecast for southeastern Minnesota Monday afternoon into Monday night.

The main threats will be large hail and damaging wind gusts in southeastern Minnesota Monday afternoon and evening.

Behind the system, cooler air will follow for midweek. Highs Tuesday will be mostly in the 50s across the state. Those readings are about 10 to 20 degrees below normal.

We’ll also see quite a bit of lingering cloud cover with some lingering showers north, especially in the morning hours.

Tuesday night will bring frosty conditions to northern Minnesota but it will be a chilly night statewide with lows ranging from the 40s southeast to near 30 degrees north.

Just in time for the holiday weekend temperatures look to warm back up into the 70s and 80s.

It will also come with some unsettled conditions, however. Some at least scattered showers and storms look likely to develop Friday and late Sunday into Sunday night with some isolated activity in between.

A tornado watch is in effect for southwestern and southern Minnesota tonight as conditions remain favorable for severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes.

Tornado watch issued; severe storms likely

A volatile weather setup is beginning to take shape across southern Minnesota as muggy dew points in the low 60s and temperatures climbing into the 80s continue to fuel an increasingly unstable atmosphere.

This area will be the primary focus for severe weather Sunday evening and night, with the Storm Prediction Center expanding the enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) to include parts of south-central Minnesota.

A tornado watch has been issued for southwestern Minnesota until 10 p.m.

A separate tornado watch remains in effect for southern Minnesota and is set to expire at 1 a.m. Monday.

Thunderstorms developing later Sunday night may produce large hail greater than 1 inch in diameter, damaging winds in excess of 65 mph, and isolated tornadoes.

The main severe weather window for southern Minnesota will likely occur between 7 and 10 p.m., with storms reaching the Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota between 9 and 11 p.m. The line is then expected to continue into western Wisconsin overnight.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected Monday into Monday night, mainly impacting southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. While isolated severe weather remains possible, the overall severe threat appears lower compared to Sunday’s.

Following the active start to the week, a much cooler and drier weather pattern settles into the region Tuesday through the remainder of the week. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to run 10-15 degrees below average, with overnight lows dropping into the 30s across portions of the state.

After a warm and quiet stretch, the weather pattern is turning much more active across Minnesota today with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected through Monday.

Some of tonight’s storms could become severe, especially across southern Minnesota, while much of the region is also set to receive its first widespread soaking rainfall of the month.

Severe weather returns Sunday night

Cloud cover will blanket the region on Sunday as more humid air returns, with dew points rising into the upper 50s to low 60s across southern Minnesota. Temperatures will stay mild in the southern half of the state, reaching the 70s to low 80s, while northern Minnesota remains cooler in the 50s and 60s.

Moisture streaming in from the Gulf will help fuel rounds of thunderstorms, bringing periods of beneficial rainfall from Sunday into Monday.

Storms are expected to erupt late Sunday afternoon across the eastern Dakotas near a strengthening surface low tracking toward Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Southwestern and southern Minnesota will be most favorable for severe weather development, prompting the Storm Prediction Center to place southwestern Minnesota under an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms, with a slight risk covering much of southern Minnesota.

Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop across Nebraska and the eastern Dakotas late this afternoon before advancing eastward into Minnesota during the evening. Current timing brings storms into western Minnesota between 6 and 8 p.m.; central Minnesota and the Twin Cities between 9 and 11 p.m.; and western Wisconsin during the overnight hours.

Early storms may become discrete rotating supercells capable of producing all modes of severe weather, including very large hail up to 2-3 inches in diameter, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

As storms push farther east Sunday night, they are expected to consolidate into one or more lines of thunderstorms. Once that occurs, damaging straight-line winds will likely become the main threat, though isolated tornadoes may still develop within the line of storms.

Monday itself may stay mostly dry for much of the day, but another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop by late afternoon and continue into the evening hours. At this time, the greater severe weather threat on Monday appears to be shifting farther south and east, primarily impacting Iowa and Wisconsin.

In addition to the severe weather potential, this stretch of active weather will bring the first widespread soaking rainfall many areas have seen in weeks. Combined rainfall totals from Sunday night through Monday night are expected to reach 1-2 inches across much of the region, with localized amounts of 3 to perhaps 4 inches possible where thunderstorms repeatedly move over the same areas.

Highs on Monday will vary widely across Minnesota, ranging from the low 50s in the northwest to the low 80s in the southwest.

By Tuesday, cooler and drier weather settles back across the Upper Midwest. Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive again by Friday and could continue into portions of the Memorial Day weekend.

After a warm and dry stretch, the weather pattern is set to become much more active heading into Sunday and Monday, bringing multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms along with the potential for severe weather across the region.

Warm, dry conditions; wet Sunday ahead

After another warm and dry day across portions of Minnesota, attention now turns to a much more active weather pattern heading into Sunday and Monday. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected, with severe weather looking increasingly likely Sunday evening and again Monday afternoon into Monday night.

A red flag warning remains in effect until 9 p.m. Saturday for portions of central Minnesota due to very dry conditions and gusty winds creating critical fire weather concerns.

Frosty temperatures expected across northern Minnesota have prompted the National Weather Service to issue a frost advisory for northern tier counties through 8 a.m. Sunday. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the 30s and 40s across northern and central Minnesota, while southern portions of the state hold in the 50s.

Thunderstorms developing across Nebraska and Iowa Saturday night are expected to move northward toward southern Minnesota by early Sunday morning. Forecast models continue to differ on exactly how widespread the morning rain and thunderstorm chances will become, but periods of showers and storms are possible across parts of the area to start the day Sunday. At this time, these early storms are not expected to become severe.

By Sunday afternoon, a warm front is expected to lift northward through the region. If enough sunshine develops behind the morning activity, the atmosphere could quickly become favorable for severe thunderstorms.

The Storm Prediction Center currently highlights much of Minnesota in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5), and an enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) in southwestern Minnesota for severe weather Sunday.

Storms are expected to develop across portions of southeast South Dakota, eastern Nebraska, northwest Iowa, and far southwestern Minnesota late Sunday afternoon before moving east Sunday evening and overnight. All primary modes of severe weather are possible with large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

As the evening progresses, storms are expected to organize into a line while moving east reaching the Twin Cities between 10 p.m. and midnight.

Another round of thunderstorms may develop Monday afternoon and evening, especially across southern and eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. The Storm Prediction Center has again placed parts of the region in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather Monday.

Once this active stretch moves out, quieter and cooler weather is expected for the middle of next week. A much cooler air mass will settle into the region Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs struggling to reach 60 degrees in some areas.

Saturday will bring sunshine and another day of warm temperatures across Minnesota before multiple rounds of thunderstorms move into the region Sunday and Monday. A growing threat for severe weather builds for Sunday into Monday.

Quiet, warm Saturday; severe weather to follow

Saturday will feature plenty of sunshine and temperatures climbing into the low 70s in northern Minnesota, with many locations across central and southern Minnesota reaching around 80 degrees.

Farther north, highs will stay in the 50s and 60s. While humidity levels remain very low for one more day, lighter winds should help limit fire weather concerns compared to recent days.

Our attention quickly turns to a much more active weather pattern for the second half of the weekend and early next week. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected Sunday through Monday, with the greatest threat for severe weather arriving Sunday evening and again Monday afternoon into Monday night.

Sunday temperatures will warm into the 50s and 60s across northern Minnesota, with 70s to near 80 degrees expected farther south.

The Storm Prediction Center highlights southwestern Minnesota in an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe thunderstorms, with a slight risk extending across the southern two-thirds of the state.

Initial storm development will carry the potential for large hail (greater than an inch in diameter) along with isolated tornadoes. As the evening progresses, storms are expected to merge into a line and race east across Minnesota and Wisconsin overnight.

Once this transition to a more organized line occurs, damaging straight-line winds will become the primary threat Sunday night.

Monday’s severe weather chances will depend heavily on how Sunday night’s storms evolve. Additional thunderstorms may redevelop Monday afternoon and evening, with another risk for severe weather possible.

At this time, the greatest threat Monday appears more likely across Iowa and southern Wisconsin, though parts of southern Minnesota could still see strong to severe storms.

In addition to the severe weather potential, this system will also bring much-needed rainfall to the region. Many areas could receive 1 to 2 inches of rain between Sunday and Tuesday, with isolated higher totals possible where repeated rounds of thunderstorms occur.

Once this active stretch moves out, quieter and cooler weather is expected for the middle of next week, with temperatures returning to more seasonable levels.

After a stretch of warm and sunny weather, changes are on the way as the atmosphere becomes more active. Attention then turns to a stalled frontal boundary that could spark thunderstorms across parts of southeastern Minnesota Friday night.

Warm weekend ahead with increasing storm chances

After what will likely be our hottest day of the year so far, a chance for thunderstorms returns, mainly across southeastern Minnesota. A stalled cold front draped across southern Minnesota will help trigger scattered storms Friday night, especially in areas such as Albert Lea, Rochester, and Austin. The strongest storms are expected to remain just to our south into Iowa, where conditions will be more favorable for severe weather.

If some of the storms become strong they could produce some gusty winds and large hail. Storms could begin developing between 5 p.m. and 7 p.m. and continue through the evening hours.

Low temperatures drop into the 40s north, and low to mid-50s south with winds expected to diminish as well.

Sunny skies and above-normal temperatures are expected Saturday, with highs ranging from the low 60s across northern Minnesota to the upper 70s and lower 80s across central and southern portions of the state.

The weather pattern becomes much more active beginning late Saturday night and especially Sunday. A disturbance developing over the Nebraska area is expected to organize showers and thunderstorms that will spread northeast into Minnesota by early Sunday morning, leading to a wet start to the day.

By Sunday evening, attention turns to a potentially stronger line of storms developing in South Dakota and racing east across southern Minnesota overnight. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted southwestern Minnesota with an enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5), and a slight risk for the southern half of the state.

The severe weather threat is expected to continue into Monday afternoon and evening as another round of storms develops farther east across central and eastern Minnesota.

At this point, all severe weather hazards may be possible Monday depending on where the front ultimately sets up.

The good news in all of this active weather is the rainfall potential. Many communities across Minnesota and western Wisconsin could pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain between Sunday and Monday, with isolated areas seeing more than 3 inches where thunderstorms repeatedly track over the same locations.

This rainfall will significantly improve soil moisture conditions while also helping bring an end to the spring fire weather concerns that have developed across the region over the past several weeks.

Very warm, dry and windy weather is leading to elevated fire weather conditions Friday. Temperatures will soar into the 80s. A stormy setup develops for Sunday and Monday.

Very warm and windy with red flag warnings Friday; stormy Sunday and Monday

We’ll have temperatures that are average for July this afternoon. Look for plenty of sunshine with highs in the 80s across southern Minnesota with 70s north.

Winds will be blustery in northern Minnesota at 15 to 30 mph. Southern Minnesota winds will be a little lighter at 10 to 20 mph.

Afternoon relative humidity values will drop into the 10 to 25 percent range across the state, making for very dry conditions.

Red flag warnings are posted across much of central and northern Minnesota through the evening hours Friday due to those elevated fire weather concerns.

Even in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota, fires are not advised as conditions will be dry and windy also, even if they are below red flag criteria.

The gusty winds and blowing dirt and dust are creating air quality alerts in portions of northwestern Minnesota through Friday evening.

The dust is coming from north-central Montana, which is under severe drought. It blew into North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota on winds that saw gusts of 50 to 65 mph!

Here’s a visible satellite image loop from Thursday evening:

Check the latest air quality conditions, alerts and forecasts here:

That dust has dispersed and is less dense than Thursday evening in northwestern Minnesota but is still visible drifting across northeastern Minnesota and over Lake Superior.

Duluth’s harbor cam shows hazy skies early Friday due to the dust in the air.

While most of Friday will be dry, some thunderstorms will develop Friday evening and overnight across far southern and southeastern Minnesota.

Storms that develop could produce some large hail. There’s a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms forecast for southeastern Minnesota Friday evening into Friday night.

Saturday will be very warm again but less windy with plenty of sun breaking back out. Highs will range from the low 80s south to the 70s and 60s north.

The pattern becomes much more active as several rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible starting Saturday night into Sunday through early Tuesday.

There’s a risk of severe storms especially Sunday but also Monday thanks to higher dew points and atmospheric dynamics in place to allow storms to become more organized.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center has an enhanced risk in southwest Minnesota Sunday.

We’ll likely see a couple days of cooler weather midweek next week in the wake of the storm system. Temperatures will warm up again in time for Memorial Day Weekend.

Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder will continue to move across the region Thursday night as a weak disturbance passes through.

Behind this activity, critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop Friday with gusty winds and very dry air leading to elevated fire danger across much of Minnesota.

Fire danger into Friday; thunderstorms move through Thursday evening

Critical fire weather conditions will continue into Friday across western, northern and central Minnesota as warm temperatures, dry air and gusty winds combine to create dangerous fire weather conditions.

A red flag warning remains in effect for much of the area, with relative humidity values expected to fall into the 10 to 20 percent range Friday afternoon.

Westerly winds will gust between 20 and 30 mph, with isolated gusts up to 45 to 50 mph possible across western Minnesota.

Blowing dust has also become an issue across western Minnesota Thursday due to strong southerly winds. We’ve seen some blowing dust warnings due to visibility concerns.

Visibility reductions have been reported in some areas, creating difficult travel conditions at times. While winds will shift west behind a cold front Friday and should be slightly weaker, localized blowing dust may still occur.

An air quality alert has been issued for northwestern Minnesota through 9 p.m. Friday due to coarse particle pollution from blowing dust expected to continue in the area.

With even warmer temperatures expected, our relative humidity values will dive once again into the 10 to 20-percent range. Breezy westerly winds will gusts 20 to 30 mph with some gusts up to 45 to 50 mph possible in western Minnesota.

In addition to the fire weather concerns, a broken line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue moving eastward across Minnesota and Wisconsin through Thursday evening.

While rainfall amounts are expected to remain light in many areas due to very dry air near the surface, some stronger wind gusts may accompany the showers.

Low temperatures drop into the 50s across the state Thursday night.

A significant warmup is expected on Friday as temperatures surge well above seasonal averages with highs reaching into the 80s and even near 90 degrees in some locations.

The second half of the weekend will bring a change in the weather pattern, introducing more Gulf moisture and increasing the chance for severe thunderstorms.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for severe weather across the southern half of the state on both Sunday and Monday with an enhanced risk of stronger storms Sunday in the southwestern corner of the state.

Damaging winds, large hail, heavy rainfall and a few tornadoes will all be possible if stronger storms develop. Forecast models also suggest the potential for a beneficial 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, which could help improve drought conditions across the state.

While the moderate to severe drought coverage has remained largely unchanged since last week, areas classified as abnormally dry have increased from about 30 percent to 42 percent.

We will continue our warm weather Thursday and winds will pick up again. We also have some scattered showers and thunder chances later in the day with better chances by Sunday and Monday.

Summerlike warmth moves in along with chances of showers, thunder

We have a warm and windy Thursday on the way. Skies will start out sunny, but we’ll see clouds increase Thursday afternoon as the next disturbance develops scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs will range from the low 80s west to the 50s and 60s northeast.

A red flag warning is posted for western Minnesota late Thursday morning into Thursday evening due to elevated fire weather conditions.Relative humidity values will drop to 20 to 30 percent and gusty winds will cause any fire to spread quickly.

We also have a fire weather watch Friday for much of central and northern Minnesota.

Some spotty to scattered showers and isolated storms develop in western Minnesota that will then track east by late afternoon and evening Thursday. Don’t look for a lot of measurable rainfall for most, however.

Winds will increase again Thursday. South winds will develop at 15 to 30 mph with the highest wind speeds to the west. Gusts could top 50 mph or higher in northwestern Minnesota.

That wind will be with us on Friday, too. The wind and low humidity have already prompted a fire weather watch for central and northern Minnesota Friday afternoon.

Friday will bring summerlike temperatures with highs in the 80s across southern Minnesota. Those readings are 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

Increased chances of showers and storms develop for Sunday into Monday as muggier dew points march north from the Gulf into Minnesota. The most active period looks to develop Sunday with scattered waves of showers and storms into Monday and Monday night.

We’ll even have the chance of severe storms Sunday and Monday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center forecasts an enhanced slight risk (level 3 of 5) already for Sunday in southwestern Minnesota with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) across much of central and southern Minnesota.

Importantly, we could be in for a widespread soaking rainfall. While thunderstorms are hit and miss by nature, there will be enough waves of showers and storms where everyone should get some good moisture. Up to 1 to 3 inches of rainfall will be possible Sunday into Tuesday.

The Upper Midwest is heading into another stretch of dangerous fire weather conditions before a major pattern shift brings widespread rain and thunderstorm chances back to the region early next week.

Red flag conditions Thursday with a chance for showers

Wednesday was certainly a 5-star day, featuring lighter winds, temperatures in the low 70s and comfortably low humidity levels. However, that dry air will become more problematic Thursday into Friday as warmer temperatures and breezy winds return the threat of elevated fire weather conditions to the region.

Overnight lows Wednesday night will fall into the low 50s across western Minnesota, low to mid-40s across eastern sections of the state, and chilly upper 30s across the Arrowhead region. A frost advisory remains in effect for Lake and Cook Counties where patchy frost is possible by early Thursday morning.

A storm system tracking through southern Canada on Thursday will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Plains, leading to very strong southwesterly winds across western and central Minnesota. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph are expected, with gusts frequently reaching 40-50 mph. A wind advisory is in effect for northwestern and western Minnesota until 10 p.m. Thursday.

A red flag warning will be in effect for much of western Minnesota on Thursday as strong winds and low relative humidity values create critical fire weather conditions.

Another day of above-average temperatures is expected, with highs ranging from the lower to mid-70s across northern Minnesota, upper 70s in the Twin Cities metro and southern Minnesota and lower 80s out west.

A line of showers may develop Thursday during the late afternoon into early evening hours. A few isolated showers may also form earlier in the day along a warm front before a cold front sweeps through later Thursday evening.

With rainfall amounts looking fairly limited, Minnesota’s newly greening landscape could certainly use additional moisture. Since May 1, much of the state has received only 10 to 25 percent of normal precipitation for the first half of May.

A surge of summerlike warmth will push temperatures well into the 70s and 80s across the region on Friday. Combined with continued breezy conditions, low humidity and an increasingly dry landscape, fire danger concerns will remain elevated. A fire weather watch has been issued for much of the state, excluding the far southeastern corner.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities has issued a Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday. * AFFECTED AREA...Portions of central, southwest, and west central Minnesota. * TIMING...For the Red Flag Warning, from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday. For the Fire Weather Watch, from Friday morning through Friday evening. * WINDS...For the Red Flag Warning south winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph, and for the Fire Weather Watch west winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...For the Red Flag Warning Around 25 percent, and for the Fire Weather Watch Around 15 to 20 percent. * IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

The weather pattern then takes a dramatic turn heading into the second half of the weekend.

A much more active setup is expected to develop late Sunday into Monday, bringing multiple rounds of beneficial rainfall and thunderstorms to the Upper Midwest. Several forecast models continue to indicate a widespread swath of 1-2 inches of rain, which would provide much-needed moisture after an extended dry stretch.

Along with the rain potential, the threat for severe weather is also increasing. The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined portions of the Upper Midwest in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms on both Sunday and Monday.

It will be important to keep a close eye on the forecast as we head into the second half of the weekend.

Wednesday through the weekend will bring warmer-than-normal temperatures. We also have at least some hopeful signs of some moisture. Showers develop later Thursday and again Sunday.

Above normal temps, rain chances into the weekend

Those who’ve been patently waiting for consistently warm weather will be rewarded in the next several days.

Wednesday through at least Sunday or Monday will bring warmer-than-normal temperatures for most of central and southern Minnesota. We’ll see highs in the 70s south and west again Wednesday with 60s and 50s northeast.

We’ll also have lots of sun Wednesday. It won’t be as windy as Tuesday but still breezy at 10, 15 and even 20 mph at times from the northwest.

Thursday will be warmer with highs well into the 70s across central, southern and western Minnesota.

We’ll see cloud cover increase in the afternoon as our next disturbance develops scattered showers and thunderstorms that will start midday Thursday in western Minnesota and track east into the late afternoon and evening Thursday.

Winds will again crank up Thursday. South winds will develop at 15 to 25 mph in eastern Minnesota but 20 to 40 mph in western Minnesota with the potential for gusts greater than 50 mph in western Minnesota.

Temperatures that are average for late June or early July move in for Friday and the weekend. Highs Friday will be into the low to mid-80s across southern Minnesota.

While widespread, soaking rain cannot be guaranteed, the pattern at least looks to become more active later in the weekend and early next week. The chance of thunder will be on the increase. We may even need to monitor potential severe weather Sunday or Monday.

Activity will be isolated and more south Saturday. The best chances will be Sunday and Monday for widespread potential development.

We could really use the moisture after nearly two weeks without significant measurable precipitation. Most models do dump 1 to 2 inches or more of rainfall in large swaths of the state, but forecasting where will be difficult to pinpoint with the nature of thunderstorms.

We’ll have a cooler overnight behind a cool front Tuesday night. Warm temperatures are back through the remainder of the week with another chance of rain and thunder late Thursday.

Temperatures continue to warm

It’ll be a cooler overnight with lows dropping into the 40s for southern and western Minnesota with 30s northeast in the wake of today’s cool front. Winds will lighten up some, but still be breezy into Wednesday at 10 to 15 mph.

A red flag warning continues in south-central and western Minnesota through 9 p.m. Tuesday due to the gusty winds and low relative humidity elevating fire weather concerns.

Wednesday will be beautiful with plenty of sunshine and highs in the 70s south and west with 60s and 50s northeast. Those readings are about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal.

Thursday will be warmer with low 80s in western Minnesota and 70s across much of central and southern Minnesota.

We’ll also see our next chance of rain and thunder develop. Scattered showers and storms will develop midday in western Minnesota and track east by the late afternoon and evening.

Summerlike temperatures are still on the way for Friday and the weekend when many of us will see highs near 80 degrees or warmer.

We’re still watching increased chances of thunder as we head into the weekend. The question is how far north muggier dew points can reach in order to produce more widespread storms and potential severe weather.

At this point, Sunday into Monday looks like the best chance for scattered thunderstorms developing.

Consistently warmer weather is on tap for the rest of the week. Chances of thunder will increase by the end of the week into the weekend along with summerlike temps.

Warm temperatures continue with increasing chances of thunder by late week

We’ll see decreasing clouds in the morning as the overnight disturbance moves out. Look for a warm Tuesday in the southern part of the state. Afternoon highs will range from the 70s south to the 50s and 40s north.

There are some lingering showers in far southern Minnesota and the Arrowhead early Tuesday. Some pop-up showers will be possible in addition to increased cloud cover in northern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon.

Another thing in the wake of Monday night’s disturbance will be gusty winds. Winds will blow at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts forecast.

Red flag warnings are posted for western and southwestern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon due to the gusty winds and low relative humidity values. Any fires that start could spread rapidly.

Afternoon and evening relative humidity values will drop to 20 to 25 percent in western Minnesota in addition to the gusty winds.

Wednesday will again be warm for the southern part of the state with partly cloudy skies. Highs will again range from the 70s south to the 50s north.

We’re still on track for even warmer, summerlike temperatures by the end of the week and the weekend with 80s likely in southern Minnesota.

The increase in both temperature and dew points by Friday and the weekend along with an upper-level disturbance moving in will touch off at least some spotty storm chances.

The first chance will come late Thursday and then mainly Sunday and Monday with isolated activity in between, Friday and Saturday.

We’ll have to monitor the chance of severe storms Sunday and Monday. There’s a question as to how far north dew points of 60 or higher can reach. Those muggier dew points will be essential to produce any potential strong or severe storms.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Severe Storms Laboratory’s experimental severe weather probability forecasts do bring chance of severe weather into southern Minnesota Sunday into Monday.

A quickly moving disturbance will touch off some scattered overnight showers into early Tuesday. Clouds will decrease Tuesday. The remainder of the week looks warm.

Scattered overnight showers then decreasing clouds Tuesday

After some rather chilly nights, tonight will be considerably milder thanks to a warmer air mass and some cloud cover. Lows will range from the 50s to the 30s in northeastern Minnesota.

A disturbance will move across the state Monday night, increasing cloud cover and producing some scattered rain showers. Most rainfall is expected to be light.

Clouds will decrease Tuesday morning giving way to midday sun in southern Minnesota and warm afternoon high temperatures. Northern Minnesota will be cloudier and cooler with some spotty showers still possible.

It will also become pretty windy Tuesday. Winds will blow at 15 to 30 mph from the northwest. Relative humidity will drop in the afternoon, too. There are red flag warnings posted for southwestern Minnesota for Tuesday afternoon.

Warmth will be consistent the remainder of the week and in fact become more summerlike by Friday and the weekend. Highs should top out in the 80s.

With the increase in temperature and dew points, we’ll inevitably see the chance of thunderstorms increase. We may even need to watch for severe weather potential.

We have a nice Monday on the way. Showers are possible Monday night into early Tuesday. Temperatures will be warmer this week, especially by week’s end.

Warmer week; showers Monday night, storms possible Friday

It’ll be a nice Monday with sunshine. High clouds Monday afternoon will increase, filtering the sun out a bit. Highs will range from the 70s in southwestern Minnesota to the 50s northeast.

Our next chance of rain comes Monday night into early Tuesday with a clipper system. Rainfall will generally be light, under one-tenth of an inch to two-tenths of an inch for most.

Skies will clear our Tuesday morning. It’ll be a warm day with afternoon highs in the 70s south to 60s and 50s north.

Temperatures will continue to warm with 80s possible by Friday. The warmer-than-normal temperatures persist into the weekend and early next week.

We’ll also see dew points increase by Friday. The increase in moisture and heat will lead to increased instability across the region. This will increase the chances of thunder for the end of the week and weekend.

Increased moisture and instability, combined with an upper-level disturbance, will touch off the chance of spotty thunderstorms late Thursday into potentially the weekend, on and off. There may even be the chance of strong to severe storms to monitor.

Mother’s Day is ending on a chilly note across Minnesota, with widespread frost and freeze concerns developing overnight as temperatures tumble into the upper 20s and low 30s. After the cold start to the week, a quick warm-up arrives Monday before the next chance for rain moves in late Monday night into Tuesday.

Frost and freeze alerts for Sunday night

High pressure moving overhead Sunday night will clear out skies and weaken winds, allowing temperatures to fall quickly after sunset. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s across much of the state, bringing widespread frost and freeze concerns to western, central, and southern Minnesota.

Frost advisories and freeze warnings stretch from northwestern Minnesota through the southern half of the state and into western Wisconsin tonight. Those flowers and plants purchased for Mother’s Day will need to be covered or brought indoors before bedtime. Temperatures in Hennepin and Ramsey counties are expected to remain above the frost threshold thanks to the urban heat island effect.

Monday will bring a noticeable warm-up across the region, with afternoon highs climbing into the 60s for most areas and even a few lower 70s possible across western Minnesota.

We’ll see a mix of sun and clouds during the day Monday as the next weather system approaches from the northwest. Southerly winds will begin increasing across western Minnesota during the afternoon, helping temperatures recover into the 60s and lower 70s.

The next opportunity for rain arrives late Monday night into Tuesday morning, with many locations expected to receive anywhere from a few hundredths of an inch up to around one-tenth of an inch of rainfall.

After this final stretch of chilly, fall-like weather, temperatures are expected to rebound later this week. Additional low-end rain chances remain in the forecast during the second half of the week, but confidence in exact timing remains low.