Get ready for a stretch of unusually warm and dry weather across Minnesota, with temperatures climbing well above normal for mid-October. Rain chances will remain limited, with the next opportunity not expected until next weekend.

Omega blocking pattern helps keep Minnesota warm and dry

We’re in for a quiet stretch of weather this week, with high temperatures well above average. A big reason behind Minnesota’s quiet weather is a pattern known as an omega block. Simply put, this pattern can cause weather systems to slow down, allowing the same type of weather to stick around for several days. It gets its name from the Greek letter omega (Ω), which the pattern resembles.

Think of it as the atmosphere getting stuck in a pattern. In this case, warmer air and high pressure are helping keep Minnesota dry, while stronger weather systems remain farther west and east.

Sunday, temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 60s across the state, with stronger south-southwesterly winds expected across southern Minnesota.

A weak front will approach from the northwest this afternoon, helping winds ease across northern and central Minnesota.

Monday will bring a brief cooldown, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, right around seasonal averages for this time of year.

From Tuesday onward, anomalous warmth will continue across the Upper Midwest, with temperatures running 15 to 25 degrees above normal. Widespread highs in the 60s and 70s are expected, with some readings near 80 degrees possible around the Buffalo Ridge area of western Minnesota.

Rain chances will remain low for most of the week as the pattern holds. The next opportunity for rain comes next weekend as a weather system approaches from the west, although widespread rainfall is not looking especially likely right now.

After a chilly start to Saturday, warmer weather is moving back into Minnesota, and it looks like the mild pattern will stick around for a while. Saturday night will be warmer than Friday night, with temperatures trending above normal through the upcoming week and mostly dry conditions expected.

Warmer temperatures Saturday night

Saturday morning brought the first widespread freeze of the season across much of the area outside the Twin Cities urban core. The Twin Cities dropped to 36 degrees, marking the first time temperatures fell below 40 degrees this fall.

Saturday night should be noticeably milder, with southwest winds helping keep temperatures from dropping as much as they did Friday night into Saturday morning.

The weather pattern is expected to remain fairly stagnant through the coming week, allowing a mild air mass to settle across much of the central United States.

High temperatures are expected to reach the 60s Monday and Tuesday before climbing into the 70s from Wednesday through next weekend. These readings will be well above normal for the second half of October, giving us an extended stretch of unseasonably warm weather.

If you're hoping for some much-needed rainfall, you'll likely have to wait a little longer. Dry weather is expected to dominate through most of the upcoming week, with the next potential opportunity for rain not arriving until next weekend.

It was a downright chilly start across the region Saturday morning, with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s to mid-30s. For many communities in and around the metro, this marked the coldest morning since early May, and the widespread freeze and frost likely brought the growing season to an end.

While the cold has arrived, a significant warm-up is already underway. The sunshine and strengthening south-southwest winds will help temperatures rebound into the upper 50s and 60s this weekend, with much warmer weather expected next week.

However, the combination of gusty winds and low humidity will bring elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon, especially across western Minnesota.

Southerly wind gusts 25 to 35 mph develop after daybreak, with stronger gusts to 45 mph possible along the Buffalo Ridge. Strong winds may lead to localized elevated fire danger, especially in sufficiently dry grasses and cropland.

Sunday will be warmer, with highs in the 60s across the state, plenty of sunshine, and winds continuing out of the south-southwest.

A cold front will approach and move into central Minnesota Sunday afternoon. The front will help bring lighter winds and dry conditions. Fire weather conditions may again be a concern where gusty winds and low humidity overlap.

A look ahead shows a stretch of quiet, dry and unusually warm October weather. Highs are expected to reach well into the 70s from the middle of next week onward, potentially running 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages.

Do you have plants growing outdoors that you are worried about freezing? You better cover them up before bed Friday night. A Freeze Warning is posted for most of southern Minnesota. Saturday morning will be quite easily the coldest morning of the season for most of Minnesota. We have not even been average yet for the morning temperatures.

Why not the north? Well, the fall freeze alerts are only posted when the growing season is still going on. We at MPR, along with the National Weather Service, consider the growing season cold up north — so no more freeze alerts.

Freeze frame

Right above, you get a glimpse of just hold cold it will be. Until Friday night, it’s been fairly mild. If you can keep your plants going past, say, 11 a.m. on Saturday, you should remain in good shape for a longer growing season until closer to Halloween. Saturday afternoon is all clear with lighter winds and pleasant weather; we go right back to pretty normal for mid-October. Many will be in the mid-50s, with the upper 50s (or even a rare 60) down south in the Driftless Area and Twin Cities.

Sunday temperatures will go up even more, into the 60s for many. That’s back above average and the morning does not bring a big risk for frost.

Quieter workweek ahead

Monday, Tuesday and most of Wednesday have basically no active weather. The MPR meteorologist team will be busy with live astronaut interviews, planning El Niño stories, and working on Climate Casts all the way into 2027. All the while, temperatures will be climbing to near 70 degrees in southern Minnesota and the 60s elsewhere.

Starting on Wednesday, there may be some tiny showers way up north and way down south. Even Thursday’s isolated rain chances are looking pretty small.

The next best chance of rain, by a long margin, is next Saturday. This powerful cold front will drop temperatures into the the following week. For now, temperatures look pretty mild all the way out to Halloween.

Winter is coming

Our Updrafts will follow unique twists to a powerful El Niño winter ahead! On the heels of the new (federal version) 90-day trend from NOAA, the Duluth office of the weather service has its own slide deck out. Thanks for the hat tip, Duluth NWS; you reminded me to register for the webinar this week. The big takeaway we all want you to get for this winter is we will still get cold and we will still have snow. The climate signal is snowstorms before Christmas, some of which can be really heavy in El Niño years. That includes the Blizzard of 1991.

Windy and cold describe the next 24 hours. A brief, potent blast of cold air moves through, then skies clear later Friday with sunshine all weekend.

Brief blast of cold, wind ahead of a nice weekend

Yesterday’s rainfall was very welcome. Prior to Thursday, we only had 0.06 inches of rain for this month of October in the Twin Cities. The Minneapolis-St. Paul international airport picked up 0.76 inches of rain Thursday into Thursday night. Many areas in southeast Minnesota saw 1 inch or more of rain.

Gusty northwest winds will continue to blow in colder air Friday in the wake of yesterday’s system. Winds will blow at 15 to 30 mph with gusts as high as 40 to 45 mph. Some gusts could be higher in western Minnesota.

Most temperatures will remain in the 40s to low 50s on Friday, making for a chilly day combined with the winds. That’s about 5 to 10 degrees below normal, but we’ve been pretty warm this month up until now.

We’ll also see clouds clear out through the day Friday, making for a brighter afternoon and clear overnight. Combined with winds dying down, that clearing will lead to widespread frost in southern Minnesota — outside the Twin Cities urban heat island — with a hard freeze north.

Even most suburbs should see frost.

There are frost advisories and freeze warnings posted for Friday night into early Saturday for much of central and southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

We’ll have lots of sunshine all weekend and into early next week. Temperatures will already warm to near 60 degrees by Saturday with warmer temperatures on Sunday afternoon.

As mentioned, this blast of cold air will be rather brief. Already anomalous warmth moves in for the second half of the weekend into, especially, the middle of next week.

High temperatures will be in the 60s for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota by Sunday afternoon and Monday. By Tuesday and the remainder of next week we’ll see highs of 70-degrees or even a bit warmer.

If you’re looking for more needed rainfalls like yesterday, you’re probably out of luck in the near-term. We have the chance of some isolated showers only Wednesday with perhaps a better chance at rainfall next weekend but overall total rain over the next 7 days will be sparse:

The El Niño global weather pattern is likely to keep temperatures warmer than normal this winter across most of Minnesota, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s newly released three-month outlook.

Northern Minnesota may feel the biggest effects.

Minnesota’s fastest-warming season

NOAA forecasters left no doubt in their report on Thursday that a “very strong El Niño” will have a significant influence on the nation’s weather through February.

El Niño or not, winter is the fastest-warming season in Minnesota. Winter lows in northern Minnesota have climbed 7.8 degrees from 1895 to present. That stat absolutely shocks me, and the coming winter is likely to extend that big warming trend further.

This bump in temperatures is on top of what we’ve seen developing in past decades. We're also warmer than the 30-year average from 100 years ago. My takeaway: Winter 2026-27 is probably going to be warmer than the winters of your childhood, plus the winters your grandparents experienced in Minnesota.

Typical winter moisture but drought lingers

Warmer doesn’t mean drier and this doesn’t mean we are going to be snow free. NOAA also does not expect drought to wrap up this winter but we could have pretty typical moisture. That may come in the form of more cold rain.

The seasonal outlook shows equal chances of regular precipitation. It means that while snowfall could be less, we could still get rain, which will hopefully keep drought conditions from worsening.

On a media call, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham stressed that a single, big winter storm can make a huge difference.

This season, the National Weather Service will start using the term “particularly dangerous situation” in select blizzard and ice storm warnings. It will help forecasters alert the public about high-confidence blizzards or ice storms of historic severity.

A longer stretch of ice-free Lake Superior?

While typical moisture is likely overall this winter, NOAA indicated that it could be drier than average over Lake Superior. That surprised me, given the higher change of lake effect snow later into the winter with the El Niño setup.

When there’s a big low-pressure system to the south of Lake Superior, and there’s no big ice coverage, we can get an east-to-west wind field that drives lake effect snow onto the North Shore of Minnesota.

Since we are likely to be warmer, Superior could be ice free for longer into the winter.

Scattered rain showers develop Thursday across southern Minnesota. A brief shot of cold air moves in behind it for Friday into early Saturday. Temperatures warm quickly into next week.

Rain showers Thursday, then a brief cold blast

Scattered rain showers will continue to develop Thursday morning into the afternoon across southern Minnesota. Rainfall will largely be limited to the southern half of Minnesota and up the North Shore into Wisconsin.

Northern Minnesota will see more spotty shower activity overnight. A few flurries are even possible early Friday in northeastern Minnesota!

One-half inch or more of rain could fall in parts of far southern and southeastern Minnesota up into the Twin Cities. Expect lesser amounts north and west.

Sunny Friday afternoon through the weekend

We’ll start with cloud cover Friday morning but colder, drier air from the north will quickly wipe away cloud cover in the afternoon. That will set us up for a sunny stretch Friday afternoon through the weekend into early next week.

Afternoon highs Friday will only be in the 40s to low 50s. Even the Twin Cities may struggle to reach 50 degrees. The chilly temps, combined with the winds will make for a real chill we haven’t seen in five months.

It will also be rather windy with northwest winds 15 to 30 mph and gusts of 40 to 45 mph. Wind advisories are posted for western Minnesota for Thursday night into Friday. Some wind gusts could exceed 50 mph in far western and northwestern Minnesota.

That blast of cool air and clearing skies will lead to a frosty overnight Friday night for most. Almost all of Minnesota outside the urban heat island core within the Interstate 494/694 loop will see temperatures near or below freezing into early Saturday morning.

Temps warm quickly, though. We’ll see highs in the low 60s Saturday and into the upper 60s by Sunday with 70s likely for southern Minnesota by early to mid next week. We’ll also see a stretch of sunny weather Friday afternoon into the middle of next week.

High pressure over Minnesota Wednesday will slowly give way to a cut-off area of low pressure currently over the Four Corners region that will interact with an upper level trough moving in from the Canadian Prairies to bring a chance of rain across parts of the state.

A rainy day Friday

Rain develops first in southwestern Minnesota late Wednesday into the overnight hours, then expands across southern and eastern portions of the state Thursday. As much as a quarter to a half-inch of rain is possible and there is good agreement among various computer models that southern Minnesota could see greater than half-inch amounts, with locally higher totals possible near the Iowa border.

The rain tapers off Thursday night into Friday as northwest winds increase, with gusts reaching 25 to 40 mph — especially in western parts of the state — and a few snowflakes possibly mixing with lingering rain in the Arrowhead early Friday.

High pressure will return to the Northern Plains beginning on Friday, bringing sunny skies an end to the precipitation. However, along with the clear skies, it will be a windy day on Friday with very cold overnight period Friday into Saturday — the coldest air we’ve seen so far this season.

Looking ahead to next week, with highs reaching the mid-60s statewide on Monday and possibly 70 in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota on Tuesday.

Today in weather history

On Oct. 14, 1966, a tornado moving west to east touched down several times about 12 miles west of Albert Lea in Freeborn County. It damaged property on two farms, although one barn was only dented despite being struck by flying debris. Total damage was estimated at approximately $2,000.

Wednesday will be another cool but near-normal day for temperatures. We should see some afternoon sun peek out. Showers develop for Thursday followed by chilly air.

Cool air lingers; showers develop Thursday

It’ll be another cool but perfectly seasonable day Wednesday. Afternoon highs will be mostly in the 50s to low 60s in southeastern Minnesota. We’ll start mostly cloudy but should see some afternoon sunshine.

Some hopeful rain showers are on the way for Thursday. A storm system will drop significant rainfall across Nebraska and Iowa with some rain spreading into southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, early Thursday.

Anywhere from one-tenth to one-half inch of rain could fall across portions of southern Minnesota during the day Thursday, wrapping up by Thursday evening.

A short blast of even chillier air moves in for Friday into early Saturday. Highs Friday will be in the 50s with 40s north. Sunshine should break out by the afternoon.

Cold Friday night; 70s possible next week

The cool, dry air will set us up for a frosty Friday night for most. Northern Minnesota will see lows in the 20s Friday night into early Saturday. Temperatures are likely to dip to near-freezing in the urban heat island of the inner Twin Cities.

Temperatures will begin to warm Saturday afternoon into early next week with 60s returning to southern Minnesota. We are likely to even see highs back in they 70s by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Next week is likely to be windy and warmer, all followed by some solid continental lows. Those large storm systems often mean big swings in our temperatures and wind directions, plus they can rip down fall color from trees.

Big drop already underway

All of the cloud cover is a sign of colder air aloft, with really chilly temperatures up at the cloud level. While the frontal passage is already happening, there’s a very brief window for a couple of tiny showers Tuesday evening into the early overnight. New UIm, Redwood Falls, Mankato and the Twin Cities should see a couple of low-impact raindrops around 8-10 p.m. Tuesday.

We are looking a little cool into a more clear Wednesday. I keep having to remind myself that while the lower 60s sound pretty cold for highs, that’s exactly normal for mid-October. Wednesday should end up looking very pleasant and the sun will make it feel noticeably warmer than Tuesday ever could.

There’s some rain back on Thursday. We have the high-res data right below, followed by the wider view. Notice how large the storm is in scale, which also means it will pull in more cold air later Thursday into Friday.

A real chill

Actually behind schedule by quite a bit, the coldest air of the season will soon be here. There may even be a few melty snowflakes way up in northern Minnesota Thursday evening or into early Friday. That’s totally normal. The average first day of measurable snow (this is not likely to stick at a heavy enough pace to be measured) at International Falls is Oct. 22.

Oftentimes we get the biggest temperature impact about 36 hours behind a cold front. The front that arrives on Thursday will be most acutely felt on Saturday morning. Hello sweater weather? Too early to turn on the heat? Well, maybe, because we will warm right back up for parts of next week.

Swing and a miss

Just as soon as the first 30s arrive in the Twin Cities this season (that’s this Saturday, just to reiterate), we should warm back up early next week. Note the below image, which is the chances of warmer-than-normal temperatures. That is a very high probability, though we are not as apt to break record high temperatures.

We will be pretty windy, as the above image showcases. The CPC has much of Minnesota at a risk for high wind hazards. That happens when we get so warm, out of seasonal norms, as a front nears our region. That is also likely to bring rain through the middle of next week.

The odd October heat has moved on. Tuesday’s temperatures will be closer to normal with a few showers. Another system grazes southern Minnesota Thursday.

More seasonable temperatures settle in

Temperatures will be closer to normal Tuesday, although still be a few degrees above normal for southern Minnesota. Afternoon highs will range from near 50 degrees in northern Minnesota to the mid-60s southeast.

We’ll have more clouds than sunshine with the possibility of a few pop-up showers late Tuesday afternoon and evening. If you’re looking for any significant rainfall, you’re out of luck.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler yet for Wednesday but we should see more sunshine, especially midday into the afternoon.

A storm system will develop and move through the central United States late Wednesday into Thursday and Thursday night. Most significant moisture looks to remain in Nebraska and Iowa with southern Minnesota up to the Twin Cities receiving some rainfall during the day Thursday.

Forecast models have shifted Thursday rainfall farther north, which is hopeful news for places like the Twin Cities that have only 3 one-hundredths of an inch of rain so far in October.

Below is a loop of the European model since Sunday night. You can see total rainfall spreading north from previous model runs.

It still looks unlikely to be really significant, but much of southern Minnesota could see one-quarter to one-half inch of rainfall. Higher amounts will likely stay in Nebraska and Iowa.

After cold snap, 70s return to southern Minnesota next week

Even colder air moves in behind the system. That air mass will drop high temperatures into the 50s and 40s for Friday and Saturday.

It will also set us up for our coldest night this season Friday night, with widespread frost for southern Minnesota outside the urban core of the Twin Cities.

The cold won’t last long.

Several forecast models push temperatures back into the 70s for highs for southern Minnesota next week. This October sure is living up to the warmer-than-normal forecast.

From the highs in the 90s to highs in the 50s, a few showers to a couple of snowflakes, and even the first frost for much of the state, get ready for what will be a transitional weather week.

Big-time temperature drop ahead

Prior to this weekend, the Twin Cities had only recorded four 90-degree days in October. We just added two back-to-back entries onto that list. The 90s are done and we now have 40s spread across Minnesota. Parts of the North Shore are in the 30s Monday afternoon while folks in the Driftless Area are in the 80s. There are also rain showers advancing into northern Minnesota, leading to a damp and cold feel Monday evening.

Only a couple of rain showers will try to form early Monday evening around the Twin Cities. Then temperatures will begin to crumble behind a stalled-out front. Even without much rain Monday night, we’re on the way to a real chill!

Back to reality

It’s easy for me to think of this heat as normal, when everyone seemed to be out and about, enjoying the warmth and fall colors. After all, it still looked like fall while I walked to Nicollet Island on Sunday. High school seniors were having photo shoots and leaves were dropping, but folks were also sunbathing near Boom Island!

Normal for this time of the year, though, is highs in the 50s and 60s. To a large degree, that’s what we have in store the rest of the workweek across the North Star State. The Mississippi River Valley will try to form some fog and stay a little milder Tuesday morning, but there is not much warming happening anywhere by Tuesday afternoon.

Dating well back into last week, there was a trend to form a tiny ribbon of rain from St. Peter and Mankato towards the Twin Cities Tuesday evening around dinner time. That’s still showing up on many maps, including the one you see below. This is not likely to be hugely impactful for most. We do have another powerful front Thursday into Friday, though rain has not appeared as widespread for much of the state. The dry slot of the storm, where we don’t get much rain, is huge; that could prevent some rain for a huge swath of Minnesota.

This powerful cold front does lead to a secondary drop in temperatures for Friday. This should be the coldest morning of the season for the Twin Cities and the southern half of Minnesota. Brrrr! Frost does not look too likely yet — nor for next week — but it will be sweater weather. Saturday morning is likely to be even colder.

A longer lead time

We warm back up into next week, a sign of another approaching front. The Climate Prediction Center is already pinging Oct. 21 as a really windy day across the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. There are also signs of a big rain event that day, continuing into Oct. 22. Right now, it’s still too early for details, but the middle of next week could cause an abrupt end to the peak of fall color across much of Minnesota.

We have another summerlike day for southern Minnesota with cooler air and showers to the north. Cooler air spreads statewide Monday night and for the rest of the week.

50s across the north, 80s to the south

We’ll have a big temperature divide Monday as a slowly moving cool front makes its way south. Highs in far northern Minnesota will sit in the upper 40s while southeastern Minnesota sees highs in the 80s yet again.

The front will also blanket central and northern Minnesota with clouds and some scattered rain showers. We could see a few showers pop up late in the afternoon and evening in the Twin Cities.

That cooler air finally takes hold over the whole state Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures will be nearly 20 degrees cooler in southern Minnesota with highs in the 60s. Northern Minnesota will see highs in the 50s.

A developing storm system could bring some showers to southern Minnesota Thursday into Friday. Right now the best chance of significant rainfall totals looks to be in Minnesota’s southernmost counties into Iowa.

Even cooler air will slide in behind that system. This next blast of cool air will be our coolest yet of this autumn season but looks to last just a couple of days:

Twin Cities could see 30s Friday night

Highs Friday and Saturday will be only in the 40s and 50s. Those readings are only a few degrees below normal by week’s end.

We could see our first overnight low in the 30s officially in the Twin Cities Friday night. The coolest the temperature has been so far at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport is just 44 degrees, despite the normal low being 43.

The cool blast may be short-lived. Most forecast models have temperatures warming back well above normal by early next week. In fact, we could see a string of highs in the 70s again.

While it was not quite as warm on Sunday as it was on Saturday, several locations across the region have already set new record, with other spots within a degree or two of their records for the date. The following locations saw new records set on Sunday:

• Mankato: 91 (previous record: 86 in 1962 and 1976)

• Twin Cities: 90 (previous record: 85 in 2015)

• Eau Clarie: 88 (previous record: 85 in 1930)

• Rochester: 86 (previous record: 84 in 2015)

• St. Cloud: 85 (previous record: 83 in 2015)

Unlike summer, when temperatures like these are to be expected, these readings are anomalies and not likely to be seen again anytime soon. A cold front currently making its way across Minnesota will ensure that, and will bring increased cloud cover and a chance of rain to parts of the state as the week progresses.

Scattered showers possible Monday; better rain chances Thursday into Friday

As the front progresses eastward across the state, scattered light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible late Sunday into Monday—mainly across central and northern Minnesota—with light rain already occurring as of Sunday afternoon in places such as Crookston, Roseau, Warroad, and Baudette.

The next opportunity for more widespread rainfall is expected Thursday into Friday. Rain chances are currently highest across southern and eastern Minnesota, although forecast confidence has decreased as guidance trends toward a drier solution, particularly farther northwest.

Gale watch from late Sunday through Monday evening for western Lake Superior

There is a risk of hazardous conditions across western Lake Superior, with a gale watch in effect from late Sunday through Monday evening. Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet are possible. Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions.

After Saturday’s record-setting warmth across Minnesota, we’ll see unseasonably warm weather continue Sunday before a cold front currently moving across the state brings more seasonable temperatures, along with a chance of rain.

Locations at risk of seeing record highs set on Sunday include the Twin Cities (Forecast: 88; Record: 85, set in 2015); St. Cloud (Forecast: 86; Record: 83, set in 2015), and Eau Claire (Forecast: 86; Record: 85, set in 1930).

We could come close tying records in Duluth (Forecast: 80; Record: 84, set in 2015) and Brainerd (Forecast: 81; Record: 85, set in 2015), and Rochester (Forecast: 83; Record: 84, set in 2015).

Seasonable temperatures return by midweek

A cold front that is currently draped across northwestern Minnesota will move southeastward across the state during the day Sunday into Monday, bringing cooler air behind it that will help moderate temperatures across the region. Highs Sunday will range from the mid-50s to mid-60s in the northwest part of the state to mid-80s elsewhere, with a few spots topping out near — but not quite reaching — 90 degrees.

Temperatures should return to seasonable levels statewide by Tuesday.

A couple chances of rain this week

The cold front moving across the state will also help bring rain showers, starting in the far northern part of the state — from Crookston to the Arrowhead region — as early as overnight Sunday into Monday, with rain chances extending as far south as Alexandria and Pine City by midday Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday look mostly dry before another chance of rain returns for much of the state on Thursday.

Today in weather history

On Oct. 11–12, 1909, an unusually early snowstorm struck Minnesota and was followed by temperatures as low as the single digits in northern parts of the state.

If you stepped outside at all across the listening area today, you may have felt a sense of déjà vu, as it feels more like July or August than October. Strong, southerly winds have been pumping warm air into the region, helping bring record warmth

So far today, we’ve seen new preliminary record high temps for the date set at the following locations:

• Bemidji at 86 (old record: 74 in 2010 and 2020)

• Park Rapids at 88 (old record: 82 in 2024)

• Brainerd at 89 (old record: 85 in 1928)

• Alexandria at 90 (old record 83 in 2024)

• St. Cloud at 90 (old record 88 in 1928)

• Willmar at 91 (84 in 2010)

• Mankato at 89 (old record: 84 in 1974)

• Worthington at 88 (old record: 81 in 1980, 2010, 2020, 2024)

• Marshall at 90 (old record: 88 in 2020)

• Sioux Falls at 90 (old record: 88 in 1928)

• Fargo at 89 (old record: 86 in 1955 and 2003)

And record highs have were tied today in the Twin Cities with 90 degrees (record set in 1928) and La Crosse at 86 degrees (record set in 1928)

The last time we officially reach 90 degrees in the Twin Cities was back on Sept. 3, which is also the last time that St. Cloud reached the 90 degree mark.

Increased fire risk continues

The warm, dry conditions, along with strong, gusty winds, are creating an elevated risk of fire weather across parts of the state. Although red flag warnings have not been issued for Minnesota—as relative humidity values have not dropped to 25 percent or below—this is still something to be cautious of, especially for folks planning any outdoor burning, which should be avoided. Extra caution is also advised if using equipment in dry crops, as any fires that do ignite can spread rapidly.

More seasonable by midweek with chance of rain later in the week

We’ll see cooler air and increasing clouds spread into northwestern Minnesota Sunday, while southern and southeastern parts of the state will remain very warm. Light rain becomes possible across northern and western Minnesota Sunday into Monday.

As the front crosses the remainder of Minnesota Monday, it will bring scattered light rain Monday into Tuesday—along with a return to seasonable temperatures—though southeastern Minnesota could remain warm much of the day. The next chance for significant rainfall will be on Thursday, when much of the state, with most areas forecast to receive a quarter to half inch of precipitation.

October is delivering a summerlike feel across Minnesota this weekend, with near-record high temperatures and strong southerly winds taking center stage.

Near-record heat Saturday, records possible Sunday

We’re cranking up the heat this weekend, with highs soaring into the 80s and maybe even a few spots hitting the lower 90s. Not exactly sweater weather. Temperatures are running 20-30 degrees above our seasonal average.

Saturday looks to be the hotter of the two days, but Sunday could steal the spotlight when it comes to records. We’re eyeing some daily records that could fall, including in the Twin Cities, St. Cloud, International Falls, Brainerd and Eau Claire. Sunday’s records are a little easier to beat, so don’t be surprised if we make a little weather history before the weekend is over.

And it won’t just be the temperatures making a scene. Strong southerly winds will be cranking, especially across southwestern Minnesota, where gusts could top 40 to 50 mph along the Buffalo Ridge area.

Air quality and fire weather concerns

Our strong southerly winds could kick up dust across southwestern Minnesota, prompting an air quality alert. With gusts over 40 to 50 mph and plenty of dry fields after harvest, it could get a little dusty. Sensitive groups should take it easy outdoors, and everyone should be mindful of blowing dust.

These strong winds and humidity dipping into the 20s and 30s will bring an elevated fire weather risk Saturday, especially across western Minnesota.

A sharp cold front sweeps through Sunday into Monday, potentially tossing a few showers into northern Minnesota before cooler air settles in.

Enjoy the bonus summer vibes while they last, because fall is waiting in the wings. Next week looks much more seasonable, with highs settling closer to normal and a chance for some rain on Thursday. How much rain we get is still up in the air, but cooler weather looks increasingly likely.

Minnesota is heading into a picture-perfect fall weekend for getting outside and enjoying the changing leaves. With temperatures expected to climb into the 80s on Saturday and remain unusually warm on Sunday. We’ll see cooler weather return next week.

Northern Minnesota is putting on a show

Saturday is shaping up to be remarkably warm for October, with temperatures potentially reaching near-record levels in the 80s. Those temperatures are 15-25 degrees above our seasonal average.

That warmth will make it comfortable to spend hours outdoors, whether you're hiking through a state park, stopping at scenic overlooks, or taking a drive to see the fall foliage.

However, it won't feel entirely like a calm autumn day. Winds are expected to increase through Saturday afternoon, with gusts potentially reaching around 40 mph in parts of western Minnesota, particularly near the Buffalo Ridge area.

This will be one of those weekends when you want to get outside as much as possible, knowing temperatures like these likely won’t return until late next spring. With highs climbing into the 80s on Saturday and Sunday, Minnesota is getting one last taste of summer in the heart of fall color season.

The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources’ latest fall foliage map is showing an explosion of color across northern Minnesota, with many areas at or near peak foliage and some already past peak.

From the North Shore to the forests of northern Minnesota, the fall scenery is putting on quite a show. And you don’t have to travel far to enjoy it. Wherever you choose to drive this weekend, Minnesota’s autumn colors will be ready to show off.

A cold front is expected to move through the Upper Midwest late Sunday into Monday. Cooler temperatures will slowly progress through the state on Sunday with 50s expected in northwestern Minnesota. Well-above-average temperatures will persist across southern Minnesota, where highs in the 70s and even 80s will once again be possible.

Following the weekend warmth, temperatures are expected to settle back toward seasonal levels, with highs generally in the upper 50s to mid-60s after the early-week cold front.

Saturday will bring low relative humidity, near-record high temperatures, lots of high winds and a heightened wildfire risk to parts of Minnesota. An air quality alert has been issued for wind-blown dust across southwestern and west-central Minnesota.

Warm, dry dusty Saturday

The combines have been go-go-go across Minnesota farm country this week with the dry weather. Check out these images of west-central Minnesota from the high-resolution Copernicus Sentinel satellite. Detroit Lakes sits at the bottom right corner.

The first image is from Aug 5, before the harvest and before the drying.

The next image is from Oct. 5 with brown areas showing the mostly harvested landscape. These areas are prone to dust and could cause lowered visibility on Saturday.

Going into this week, the United States Department of Agriculture reported Minnesota’s soybean harvest at 25 percent compared to 51 percent of normal through the same date. Corn was much closer to an average pace, but those acres were a little behind, as well.

In southwestern Minnesota near Sioux Falls, S.D., new satellite data indicates the harvest is likely about half done. That could limit dust availability on Saturday.

Air quality alert posted for Saturday

The combination of warm, dry conditions and wind could create air quality problems Saturday across southwestern Minnesota. Gusts of 50 mph are expected on the region’s Buffalo Ridge.

With only one-half inch of rain or less since the end of September and wind gusts of 40 mph or more expected Saturday morning and afternoon, “the landscape is susceptible to blowing dust,” Minnesota Pollution Control Agency meteorologists Ryan Lueck told MPR News on Friday.

It “may result in poor enough air quality over a large enough area to meet our air quality alert threshold for sensitive groups,” he added. “Not a slam dunk, but still a situation we'd like to be proactive about.”

Later in the day, the MPCA posted an air quality alert for southwestern Minnesota and far western Minnesota, from east of Worthington to north of Ortonville.

The orange category alert warns the air may be unhealthy for sensitive groups including people with lung disease, older adults and children.

Temperatures ramp up Friday with 70s across much of central and southern Minnesota by the afternoon. Highs will be in the 80s Saturday and Sunday before cooling off.

Weekend heat, then seasonable temps return

Friday will be warm and sun-filled. Look for some occasional high clouds with afternoon highs in the 70s across central and southern Minnesota. It’ll be breezy from the southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday will be our warmest day in this stretch of above-normal temperatures. Highs Saturday will be 20 to 30 degrees above normal!

High temperatures on Saturday will be well into the 80s across central, southern and western Minnesota. A couple of places could even reach an incredible 90 degrees.

Saturday happens to be the latest we’ve ever reached 90 degrees in the Twin Cities.

Sunday also will likely be in the 80s for portions of southeastern Minnesota up to the Twin Cities, but cooler air will be moving into northwestern Minnesota.

Cooler and potentially wetter next week

Cooler air moves into the state starting Sunday in northwestern Minnesota. It will spread statewide Monday into Tuesday.

Next week will be cooler and closer to normal temperatures.

High temperatures by Tuesday will be right near normal, in the 50s and 60s, primarily. The normal high and low in the Twin Cities by Tuesday is 59 and 42 degrees while in International Falls the normal is 52 and 32 degrees.

The pattern also looks potentially more active next week and we could really use the moisture.

That slowly moving cool front will touch off showers late Sunday in northern Minnesota and statewide on Monday. Another system could deliver rain late Wednesday into Thursday and Friday.

There’s a potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inches across much of Minnesota for total rainfall through next week between the two systems. In the Twin Cities, we’re still behind by 6.83 inches of year-to-date precipitation.

Drought remains largely unchanged across Minnesota in the October 7 update from the U.S. Drought Monitor. That comes out each Thursday morning. Despite the fact that the Twin Cities region is nearly seven inches behind on precipitation in 2026 - when compared with the average year-to-date - soil moisture has improved deeper into the soils nearby. Farmers may also want dry weather now as they strive to catch up on the harvest. The newest United States Department of Agriculture report, released Monday, shows that soybeans were at a 25 percent harvest rate. Normally that is 51 percent through the same date across Minnesota.

We are mostly dry through the coming weekend. That dry weather happens even as our weather team tracks three named tropical systems. There is Hurricane Isaias in the Atlantic, with Rachel and Simon in the Pacific. Only Rachel could tangentially impact Minnesota with rain. That could come Sunday night for northwest Minnesota. Rain stalls out up there before spreading to the rest of the state on Monday.

That rain will be fairly widespread and decently heavy. Temperatures then drop substantially for the workweek. Another powerful front brings a more direct pop of rain coming from the Rockies. That might even have a hint of snow for northern Minnesota. That’s actually totally common up north. International Falls typically gets its first measurable snow on October 22. This would be only a few days before.

After a cooler and breezier start to the week, a dramatic warm-up is on the way. Temperatures will climb into the 70s Friday before surging into the 80s this weekend, bringing a very summerlike feel to the region for early October.

Fall colors mixed with summer temperatures

The warm weather will come with a tradeoff, however: Strong southerly winds and very dry conditions will increase fire weather concerns for Saturday and Sunday.

Friday will mark the transition from cooler air to a much warmer pattern developing for the weekend. Temperatures will climb into the 70s Friday afternoon, setting the stage for an even bigger warm-up.

Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the stretch. Temperatures will surge into the mid to possibly upper 80s across southern portions of the state. That kind of warmth is much more typical of July than early October!

A strengthening low-pressure system moving across the Canadian Prairies will help pull much warmer air northward. It won't just be the temperatures that stand out. South winds will become increasingly gusty, with wind speeds potentially reaching 30 to 40 mph.

The combination of warm temperatures, low humidity and strong winds will create near-critical fire weather conditions in parts of the region.

The low-pressure system will continue moving east Sunday, but the warm air will linger. Temperatures should remain well above normal, while breezy conditions continue through at least the afternoon. That means elevated fire weather concerns will likely persist Sunday, even as temperatures begin to trend downward later in the day.

The biggest concern heading into the weekend is not severe thunderstorms or heavy rain, it's the combination of very warm temperatures, dry fuels and strong winds.

Thursday will be closer to normal with highs mostly in the 60s, but temperatures warm on Friday and especially through the weekend. Much cooler air returns next week.

Cooler Thursday, July-like temps this weekend

Thursday will be a little cooler than Wednesday but still a bit above normal. We’ll see afternoon highs range from the upper 60s south to upper 50s north. There will also be a bit more occasional cloud cover.

Warmer air starts to push back into Minnesota on Friday. Highs will be near 80 degrees for some in western Minnesota, with widespread 70s again across central and southern Minnesota with plenty of sunshine.

We’re still on track for Saturday temperatures that are average for mid-July. Highs will be in the mid-80s across much of southern Minnesota. It will also likely be near 80 degrees in the Twin Cities and southeastern Minnesota on Sunday before a potent cool front slides through.

Temperatures next week will be much more near-normal with mostly 50s and 60s by Tuesday and for the remainder of the week.

We’re still keeping our eye on a storm system that will affect the central United States at some point mid to late next week. We sure could use the moisture if the system tracks through Minnesota.

The Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet in 2026, but that long stretch of silence is about to come to an end.

First 2026 Atlantic hurricane about to arrive

Tropical Storm Isaias, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico, is forecast to strengthen into the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. If that happens as expected, it would mark an extraordinarily late arrival for the season’s first hurricane.

Hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through Nov 30. Typically, the first Atlantic hurricane forms around Aug. 11, so Isaias is showing up nearly two months late to the party.

Warm Gulf waters are providing plenty of fuel for strengthening while atmospheric conditions could allow Isaias to intensify rapidly. Forecast discussions indicate the storm could become a significant hurricane before reaching the northern Gulf Coast late this week.

Isaias could bring hurricane-force winds, storm surge, heavy rainfall and flooding to portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Heavy rain could also spread well inland after landfall.

Hurricane watches have been issued up and down the Gulf Coast in anticipation of Isaias’ arrival.

El Niño leads to suppressed hurricane season in Atlantic

There is a clear reason the season has struggled to produce stronger storms, and that would be the very strong El Niño that has developed.

During a typical El Niño, stronger wind shear develops across the Atlantic, which can tear apart developing thunderstorms before they have a chance to organize and intensify into a tropical system.

Hurricanes are vertically stacked storms, meaning their circulation needs to remain aligned from the surface all the way up through the atmosphere in order to strengthen efficiently.

When strong wind shear is introduced, it can tilt and disrupt that circulation, separating the storm’s surface center from its thunderstorms aloft. When that alignment is lost, the storm can struggle to organize and intensify, and in some cases, it can lead to weakening and eventual decay.

Despite the late start to the Atlantic hurricane season, we still have a little under two months left of the official hurricane season to see more tropical activity develop.

Wednesday will be cooler but still nearly 10 degrees above normal. Look for sunshine and breezy, dry conditions. Highs in the 80s move into southern Minnesota for Saturday.

Cooler than Tuesday but still warmer than normal through Friday

After a very warm Tuesday, Wednesday will be cooler but still nearly 10 degrees above normal. Afternoon highs will range from the low 70s south to low 60s north with lots of sunshine.

We’ll also see elevated fire weather conditions due to gusty northwest winds and low relative humidity values in the afternoon.

Thursday will be several degrees cooler with highs mostly in the 60s across the state along with more sunshine. It’ll remain warmer than normal.

Weekend will be even warmer

A blast of even warmer air moves in for the weekend. Highs Saturday and potentially Sunday could be into the 80s, a full 20 to 25 degrees warmer than normal for this second weekend of October.

Cooler air will move in early next week, dropping temperatures to more realistic mid-October readings, mostly in the 60s and 50s.

While it will be considerably cooler, those temperatures next week are right near normal. In the Twin Cities, we can expect highs near 60 degrees and overnight lows in the 40s, possibly 30s for the first time this season, officially.

There’s a potential midweek storm system brewing for next week but forecast models are quite literally all over the map with the track. Here are two potential scenarios for placement of the system by next Wednesday night:

The system has the potential to deliver some significant moisture, which we could certainly use after these dry, breezy and warm days.

We are warmer — noticeably so — on Tuesday. A quick cooler and sunny trend is here towards the end of the workweek. We are much, much warmer for the coming weekend. Much of Minnesota will be totally dry for the next week or longer. There are some potent rainmakers next week that also deliver colder air.

We are having a really mild, even warm day across the state and broader region. While the freighters on Lake Superior were bouncing around on some fairly large waves Monday, things have settled down up north. The same is true for the rest of the map!

Gradual drops this week

When compared with Tuesday’s very warm (for October) weather, Wednesday really does have a drop-off. Six to eight degrees is enough to notice, though it’s still a really pleasant day. There may be a couple of very small and low-impact rain showers way up north in the Arrowhead. The Iron Ranges could collect up to a tenth of an inch of rain but that’s about it. Those folks will be cooler, as well. Most are all dry through at least Sunday evening, however.

Thursday drops to the middle 60s across southern Minnesota, and the lower 60s (or even upper 50s) across much of the state that is north of Interstate 94. To reiterate: not a bad day, just a little cooler.

Riding high this weekend

All around the North Star State, swimming pools will often close around Labor Day. But by this weekend, Labor Day has already passed up by more than a month. And yet, you might want to take a dip in the pool with summery weather on Saturday and Sunday! High temperatures around the Twin Cities are elevated, possibly well into the lower 80s; they’ve gone up and up in recent weather model guidance.

There are twin fronts next week. The first, Monday, may not bring a ton of rainfall to Minnesota. Temps could drop a solid 20 degrees over the course of 48 hours, even more for the low temperatures over the course of a couple of days.

The second front should easily get us to the Twin Cities coldest temperatures of the season to date. Will you turn on the heat? Or let the low temperatures recover by the following weekend and deeper into October? We’d love to hear from you, about your philosophy about turning on the heater for the season.

Temperatures will be about 10 to 20 degrees above normal Tuesday. A cool front will drop temps just slightly for mid to late week before we warm again for the weekend.

Very warm, breezy Tuesday followed by a slight cooldown

It’ll be a very warm day Tuesday as south winds push temperatures up well into the 70s to even near 80 degrees for some in western Minnesota.

Those readings are about 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Normal highs range from the low 60s to low 50s across Minnesota for Oct. 6.

A cool front moves through later in the day switching the winds from the south to the northwest and dropping temperatures just a bit Wednesday into Friday. We’ll still be warmer than normal.

Highs Wednesday afternoon will be in the low 70s south to low 60s north, still about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. We’ll continue to see quite a bit of sunshine as well.

We’ll need to watch for potential elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. We’ll see gusty northwest winds, combined with relative humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent range. A lot of vegetation is also drying out at this time of year.

Thursday and Friday will be a touch cooler before temperatures ramp up again for the weekend. We’re still on track to see many highs in the 80s Saturday across southern Minnesota.

Unfortunately, in addition to the warm weather and sunshine the pattern will be quite dry with no real chance of rain until perhaps later in the weekend or early next week.

After a cool start, temperatures this week will be warmer than normal with at least a few days in the 70s. Conditions will be pretty dry with little chance at rainfall.

Above-normal temperatures all week and dry

It’s another chilly start to the day early Monday. Morning lows dipped into the 20s in northern Minnesota with lots of 30s and 40s in southern Minnesota.

Winds will generally be light from the south but will pick up in western Minnesota at 10 to 20 mph by the afternoon. Highs will be mostly in the 60s with some low 70s in western Minnesota.

We’ll see lots of sunshine to start with increasing clouds this afternoon as a fast-moving upper level disturbance sweeps across the region. A few showers will be possible for central Minnesota, mainly north of I-94 this evening.

Rainfall will be pretty light. A few ‘lucky’ spots will receive up to 0.10 to 0.25 inches mainly in east central Minnesota and the North Shore into northwest Wisconsin.

Tuesday will be much warmer with highs well into the 70s for most of the state. Those readings are 10 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year.

A cool front will drop through later Tuesday but temperatures will not drop that much. We’ll still be near 70 degrees Wednesday with upper 60s by Thursday and Friday.

By the weekend, we may see summerlike temperatures. Several forecast models push us to 80 degrees by Saturday.

We were on a roll with rainfall in September but conditions are looking pretty dry with no significant chance of rainfall this week. We may see some showers Sunday night into Monday early next week with the next cool front.

Our temperatures will take a sharp tumble Sunday night as clear skies and light winds set the stage for chilly night across the region.

Freeze and frost concerns Sunday night

High pressure will remain in control Sunday night, keeping skies clear to mostly clear across Minnesota. With very little wind and plenty of dry air in place, temperatures will drop quickly after sunset. Low temperatures will plummet to sub-freezing temperatures, especially for areas in the Arrowhead and north-central Minnesota.

A freeze warning and frost advisories will remain in effect through Monday morning for a large portion of northern Minnesota.

Farther south, temperatures will generally fall into the upper 30s to low 40s across the rest of the state. While most locations will stay above freezing, the combination of clear skies and light winds will allow frost to develop in rural and low-lying areas.

The good news is that this chilly air won't stick around for long. Once the sun comes up Monday morning, temperatures should begin climbing quickly, setting the stage for a much warmer stretch of weather ahead.

The Twin Cities Marathon is ready to hit the starting line, and the weather forecast is lacing up right alongside it. Here’s what runners can expect in the Twin Cities for race day.

Race day at a glance

What a start to this Sunday, with mostly clear skies, lighter winds and comfortable conditions for marathon runners and spectators. As runners gather in Minneapolis early Sunday morning temperatures will be around the upper 40s at the starting line. Skies will be mostly clear with west winds 5-10 mph, and dew points sitting in the 40s.

For those arriving well before the starting gun, it may feel a bit chilly with the light west winds and temperatures in the upper 40s.

As runners find their stride and settle into their pace, temperatures will slowly warm through the 50s, with mostly sunny skies and light northwest winds continuing.

But as thousands of runners make their way toward the finish line in St. Paul, conditions will gradually warm up into the lower 60s by the time the race ends, topping out in the mid-60s Sunday afternoon.

Overall, race-day conditions look ideal across the Twin Cities. Runners should prepare for a chilly start, light west-northwest wind and low humidity.

From the starting line in Minneapolis to the finish in St. Paul, the forecast will be along for all 26.2 miles. The runners are ready. The course is ready. And now, the forecast is off and running.