Enjoy Monday's November warmth! Temperatures will continue to run well above average statewide, with highs climbing into the 50s and low 60s.

A few light showers could sneak through Wednesday morning. Otherwise, a quiet and increasingly cooler stretch of weather is ahead.

Warm start to the week

If you’re enjoying the mild weather, there’s one more day like it in the forecast. Early November typically brings an average high temperature of around 45 degrees in the Twin Cities and upper 30s for the Northland. We’ll be running well above that mark to start the week.

Highs Monday will climb into the mid to upper 50s north and upper 50s to low 60s for areas south, making for a beautiful day by November standards.

A weak cold front will move through Monday, bringing some early cloud cover. However, sunshine will break through, and overall, quiet weather will prevail.

Cooler with rain chances

After the cold front moves through Monday night, it will bring slightly cooler temperatures back into the region. Tuesday’s temperatures will still be above-average in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Our next opportunity for precipitation arrives late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. A few light showers will be possible, but moisture will be limited.

Most locations will likely remain dry, and any rainfall that does occur should be very light, generally just a few hundredths of an inch. Across the Iron Range and Arrowhead, a few snowflakes could mix in at times.

After that, high pressure takes control once again, keeping the forecast dry through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will trend cooler, especially overnight, with lows dropping below freezing Thursday and Friday mornings.

Looking ahead, the overall pattern remains fairly quiet through much of mid-November. Temperatures will trend seasonable, with another warmup expected heading into next weekend.

The next better opportunity for more active weather may develop toward the middle to end of next week.

The high temps we’ve been seeing are impressive, but not unprecedented

It’s been another mild, warmer-than-average day across Minnesota as we close out the first full weekend of November. Temperatures this afternoon have been ranging in the mid-to-upper 50s across much of the state—and we’ve even seen a 60-degree reading or two so far—with mid-40s to low-50s across northern Minnesota.

We didn’t quite make it to 60 officially in the Twin Cities on Sunday but if we had, it would have actually been average in terms of the last date of a 60-degree temperature in the Twin Cities if you average all such dates going back to 2000.

We’ll see one more day of unseasonably warm conditions—perhaps the warmest day of this stretch—on Monday before things start to return to more seasonable values by Wednesday. We can expect another warm up, however, by the end of the week, with temperatures once again climbing back into the 50s across much of the state next Sunday and even into the low 60s across southeastern Minnesota and southwestern Wisconsin next Tuesday, November 17.

There is a risk of frost conditions overnight across parts of northern Minnesota with a risk of a hard freeze for some areas as things cool down by the middle of the week.

With that mid-week cool down this week comes a slight chance of showers early Wednesday—Veterans Day. Areas in far western Minnesota could see any rain that develops falling as early as late in the evening on Tuesday. Any rain from the weak system pushing through the region at that time will be miniscule—a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch at most. We’ll have to wait until the middle of next week before there’s any chance of significant precipitation across our area, but that’s so far out ahead of us at this point that the models are showing low confidence as far as what might develop.

So for now, enjoy the unusually warm November weather and look for it to return just in time for next weekend.

Warm and dry conditions continue

Minnesota is enjoying an extended stretch of unusually mild and relatively quiet November weather, with another pleasant day expected across much of the state on Sunday. Temperatures will remain well above seasonal averages, while rain chances stay limited over the next several days.

Morning temperatures started out considerably warmer than they were at this time Saturday. Despite the warmer start, afternoon temperatures are expected to be close to Monday's highs. Minneapolis is forecast to reach 54 degrees after hitting 56 yesterday. Rochester should also top out near 54, about three degrees warmer than Monday, while Duluth is expected to reach 48 degrees, compared to yesterday’s high of 46.

Aside from a slight chance of sprinkles this morning in the Arrowhead region, most of Minnesota will remain dry throughout the day Sunday. The most noticeable weather impact will be gusty northwest winds along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

The next weather system arrives Wednesday as an upper-level disturbance and associated cold front move across the state. Expect increasing clouds, a modest cooldown and a chance of light rain showers. Rainfall amounts are expected to be minimal, generally around a tenth of an inch or less, with many communities potentially remaining dry.

Temperatures will move closer to seasonal averages during the middle of the week before another warming trend develops heading into next weekend.

Beyond Wednesday, the next opportunity for more meaningful precipitation may arrive between Nov. 18 and 20. Until then, Minnesota appears headed for a relatively uneventful weather pattern, with occasional weak cold fronts bringing changes in cloud cover and wind direction but little in the way of significant precipitation or temperature swings.

Still a rainfall deficit

The Twin Cities in particular remain about 5.5 inches below normal in accumulated rainfall. While that deficit is significant, there is still time for additional precipitation to help make up the difference before winter settles in.

For now, enjoy the sunshine and mild temperatures. November is delivering an unusually comfortable stretch of weather, and there are no major changes on the immediate horizon.

Anniversary of first official storm warning

On Nov. 8, 1870, the first official storm warning was issued by the newly formed federal weather service, part of the U.S. Army Signal Service. The bulletin, directed at observers across the Great Lakes, warned of “high winds probable along the lakes.” Several schooners were reported lost or damaged across the Great Lakes that day.

More pleasant weather ahead as the weekend continues

We’ve enjoyed a pleasant start to the weekend during the day on Saturday, with lots of sunshine and mild temperatures across the state—good news for deer hunters, antique hunters and general outdoor lovers alike!

With mostly clear skies and southwesterly winds prevailing across much of the state, we’ve seen many locations in the 50s so far on Saturday, with some 60-degree readings occurring or expected in southern Minnesota.

We will see an increase in clouds this evening and into the overnight hours, along with a shift in wind direction from southwest to more west overnight, then northwest on Sunday. This is all due to a cold front that will be passing over the state tonight, but that’s about all it will bring in terms of changes to our weather.

This extended break from active weather will continue Sunday and into the early part of next week, with Monday looking especially mild, especially across southern and western Minnesota, with highs reaching the lower 60s.

Cooler weather returns midweek

Cooler air will begin spreading across the state on Wednesday, with highs generally in the 40s and lower 50s. Most areas remain dry, although a weak disturbance could produce isolated showers in parts of southern Minnesota.

No widespread rain or accumulating snow is forecast in the near-term forecast. The next more substantial precipitation opportunity at this point does not look to arrive until around November 18–20, leading to 10-12 days of what the National Weather Service Twin Cities office is referring to as “boring weather.”

Patching fog gives way to abundant sunshine

After a foggy start to the day for parts of Minnesota, we should see abundant sunshine throughout much of the day. This will allow temperatures to reach into the mid-40s to mid-50s across most of the state on Saturday.

Lows rebound slightly—and briefly

Saturday night we’re looking at an overnight low of about 44 in the Twin Cities, 41 in St. Cloud and 37 in International Falls. After that we should generally see lows in the mid-to-upper 30s across central and southern Minnesota through the middle of the week with lows in the mid-20s to about 30 up north.

Looking ahead, we should see another mild day on Sunday, with highs mainly in the upper 40s and 50s. A weak cold front will shift winds to the northwest, producing some breezy conditions, particularly in northeastern Minnesota. A few sprinkles or brief showers are possible in the far Arrowhead, but most locations remain dry.

Deer Opener

It should be a pleasant day for the start of Minnesota’s firearm deer hunting season. Last year was actually below average in terms of temperatures. In International Falls, for example, the daytime high was only 26 and 0.8 inches of snow fell. St. Cloud saw a high of 34 and a trace of snow and Brainerd saw a high of 31.

Contrast that with today’s forecast high of around 52 for all three of those locations and zero chance of snow—or precipitation of any kind for that matter.

Here are some climatological stats for the deer opener courtesy of our friends at the Minnesota DNR and the National Weather Service:

Weather History

On November 7–9, 1986, a severe winter storm brought heavy snow, sleet, freezing rain, blizzard conditions, and dangerously high winds across Minnesota. The storm caused widespread power outages, impassable roads, downed trees and power lines, damaged buildings and vehicles, and wind chills as low as 30 below zero. Strong winds also fueled numerous fires, particularly in northern Minnesota.

After waking up to the first freeze of the season across the core Twin Cities metro Friday morning, we're finally getting a taste of what November typically feels like. A gradual warming trend is on the way, with above-normal temperatures returning for much of next week.

Chilly start to deer opener

The first widespread freeze of the season occurred across the Twin Cities region Thursday night into Friday morning, marking the area’s third-latest first freeze on record.

Friday night will bring another chilly night, although temperatures will depend quite a bit on how cloud cover evolves.

Clouds will spread across western Minnesota Friday night, helping limit overnight cooling. Farther east, however, cloud cover becomes less certain.

Eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin look to have the greatest potential for the coldest temperatures into Saturday morning with clear skies forecast.

For deer hunters heading out early Saturday morning, be prepared for a chilly start. Dress in layers and keep an eye on local temperatures, especially in areas farther east where skies may remain clearer.

Sunshine and seasonable temps this weekend

High pressure and a relatively quiet weather pattern should keep skies mostly sunny to partly cloudy through the weekend with little in the way of precipitation expected. Outdoor plans like putting holiday lights on the house should be in good shape.

Overall, this looks like a classic November weekend across Minnesota. We'll have seasonable temperatures, plenty of sunshine, and relatively quiet weather before a gradual warming trend gets underway heading into next week.

The warmer-than-normal pattern looks to continue much of next week, and it appears we'll need to wait a little longer for any sustained stretch of winterlike cold.

Friday will be cool but near normal. We’ll also see sunshine break out after a stretch of dreary days. After a cold Friday night, temperatures warm the next few days.

The Twin Cities finally saw frost

We finally saw temperatures dip to and below freezing in the Twin Cities early Friday morning. The Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport dipped to 31-degrees early Friday morning. This is the third latest frost on record. Most of the urban heat island (within the I-494/I-694 loop) had not seen freezing temperatures yet.

The cold spots was Brimson, in northeast Minnesota. The temperature there dipped to 16-degrees. International Falls also dropped into the teens with a morning low of 18-degrees.

High pressure brings sunshine, cool temps, warmer weekend

We’ll see afternoon highs in the 40s pretty much statewide, again right near normal for the date. We’ll also see sunshine again!

High pressure will keep the sunshine and light winds in place today and really into early next week. There will be a few more clouds west Friday with some occasional high clouds passing through this weekend.

It’ll be one more cold night Friday with lows dropping off into the 20s for most to near 30-degrees in the Twin Cities under clear skies.

Temperatures warm back above normal this weekend, mostly into the 50s and 40s. We’ll see more sunshine through some occasional high clouds.

Most of next week will continue to be dry with above-normal temperatures overall. Highs Monday could reach the low 60s in southern Minnesota before dipping back into the 50s midweek.

We’ll also be in a quiet and dry pattern overall. Most disturbances and storm systems will go well around Minnesota. The forecast for rainfall over the next 7 days is pretty minimal or non-existent.

We hit our high temperatures for Thursday shortly after midnight last night, and it’s been a slow, steady cool down ever since. Breezy northwest winds have helped usher in cooler air, while stubborn cloud cover has made it difficult for sunshine to break through.

Northern Minnesota managed to squeeze out a little sunshine this afternoon, but much of the southern half of the state remained locked in with clouds.

Looking for our first freeze/frost

The big story heading into Thursday night will be our close attempt at our first frost in the Twin Cities this season. In fact, we’ll have two opportunities to see temperatures dip to near or below freezing, with Thursday and Friday night both worth watching.

High pressure will build into the region, bringing seasonable temperatures Friday and into the upcoming weekend.

Dry conditions and plenty of sunshine will be on tap for the first full weekend of November, with temperatures climbing into Monday looking more like early September than early November. We'll see temperatures reaching 60 degrees on Monday.

Much-needed rainfall makes a dent in Minnesota's drought

One of the biggest positives from our recent weather pattern has been the incredible amount of rainfall across Minnesota. Several areas picked up 2 to 4 inches of rain, with some locations across northeastern Minnesota seeing totals approaching or exceeding 5 inches!

This was about as beneficial of a rainfall event as we could have hoped for. After an extended stretch of dry conditions, the soaking rain has helped replenish soil moisture, boost lake and river levels, and provide some much-needed relief to areas dealing with drought.

And the latest drought monitor confirms just how much of a difference this rainfall has made. The Nov. 5 update shows substantial improvement across Minnesota. Moderate drought has dropped to just under 25 percent, severe drought to less than 3 percent, and the extreme drought category has been eliminated.

We could see some peeks of sun Thursday as rain showers finally end. Thursday and Friday will be cooler, then temperatures warm again. More sun is likely Friday into the weekend.

Showers end, a brief blast of cool air follows

The rain is finally done for most of Minnesota after a few wet and dreary days. The totals are substantial. Much of northeastern Minnesota saw 4 to 5 inches or more since Monday, including 5.46 inches in Grand Rapids, 5.03 inches in Iron Junction and 4 inches in Duluth.

Southern Minnesota generally saw less, including 1.9 inches in the Twin Cities. That’s still more than a November’s worth of precipitation for the area.

There are a few sprinkles left in northern Minnesota where they’re even mixing with a few wet snow flakes for some. We’ll see seasonable temperatures, mostly in the 40s Thursday, along with a northwest wind at 10 to 20 mph.

While we could see a few peeks of sun, it’ll be mostly cloudy in southern Minnesota. Northern Minnesota should see the sun break out later Thursday afternoon as drier air moves in.

It’ll be a chilly overnight with lows in the teens, 20s and 30s across the state as breaks develop in the cloud deck.

Sunshine Friday into the weekend

More abundant sunshine returns for Friday and the weekend after a dreary stretch of clouds and showers much of this week.

Highs again will be mostly in the 40s Friday, statewide. That, combined with mainly clear skies will lead to a cold overnight again Friday night.

Lows could dip to near-freezing in the Twin Cities for the first time this season. If we reach 32 degrees early Friday, it will be our third latest frost. If it happens Saturday, it would tie for second latest. Nov. 18, 2016 is the latest date.

Temperatures warm this weekend to above-normal territory, at least slightly. We’ll also see more sunshine both days.

Next week, temperatures warm even more with highs in the 50s, potentially even low 60s a couple days in southern Minnesota.

After several days of gloomy, wet November weather and rainfall we desperately needed, it will be wrapping up on Thursday. Our multi-day rain event is coming to an end early Thursday morning as the area of low pressure responsible for the unsettled weather slowly moves east toward the Great Lakes.

A few lingering showers and areas of light rain will hang on Wednesday night into Thursday morning before precipitation gradually comes to an end. Unfortunately, the end of the rain doesn't mean an immediate return to sunshine. Thursday will remain mostly cloudy, breezy and chilly, with afternoon highs only reaching the 40s.

Northwest winds will be a big part of Thursday's forecast, with sustained winds around 15-25 mph.

Sunshine returns Friday; dry weather pattern ahead

The good news is that Thursday's lingering clouds and showers will be followed by a much quieter weather pattern. Clouds should gradually clear out Friday as drier air moves into the region from the northwest.

Temperatures will gradually rebound this weekend, with even warmer conditions expected early next week as a ridge of high pressure builds across the central United States. Highs could run 10-20 degrees above seasonal averages in the 50s and 60s.

Scattered rain showers on Wednesday will continue to rotate around a low center that’s nearly parked over the Twin Cities. Rain finally departs Thursday followed by briefly cooler temperatures.

On-and-off showers through Thursday morning

We’re on Day 3 of our storm system keeping clouds and showers across the region. The low center is right near the Twin Cities and will very slowly move east Wednesday.

Scattered bands of rain showers will rotate counterclockwise around the low. Showers should gradually depart Thursday morning.

Winds will also increase and rotate around the low center. In the eye of the system, winds will be lighter but increase from the northwest at 15 to 25 mph in western and southern Minnesota and eventually for all of us Wednesday night into Thursday.

Temperatures will range from the warmer 50s east on the warm side of the low while western Minnesota will be in the 40s on the cooler backside.

High temperatures by Friday will be in the 40s statewide, but we should see some sunshine, too. While cooler, those reading are actually near normal finally for a day or two.

We may finally see our first 32-degree reading officially in the Twin Cities early Saturday morning.

Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport has only been as cold as 36 degrees so far. If we reach 32 on Saturday it will tie for the second latest frost. Otherwise, Nov. 18, 2016 is the latest for a 32-degree temperature in the Twin Cities.

Temperatures warm back into the 50s already for the weekend into much of next week, back into above-normal territory. Most forecast models have us flirting with 60 degrees or warmer at times next week, which would be nearly 20 degrees above normal.

You know the expression “when it rains, it pours?” That is certainly true in a literal sense this week with four days in a row featuring rain. After that, many maps have a substantial drying period of cooler — but not cold — weather. We are still awaiting the first 32-degree temperature reading at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, and already closing in on a top-five latest freeze with plenty more time ahead of us.

Get out the vote — and the umbrella

Goodness, we’ve had quite a bit of rain. If you thought it was heavy around the Twin Cities, Grand Rapids and Chisholm had nearly five times the official amount at MSP.

If you are wanting to vote on Election Day and stay dry, midafternoon looks best, followed closely by the last hour the polls are open on Tuesday, from 7 to 8 p.m. While I have not heard many reports of people being stuck outside in the rain, there is more rain moving in later in the afternoon and during the evening commute.

Note that dusk is now before 5 p.m. in most places following the end of daylight saving time on Sunday, so you might want something bright on if you are going to be standing in line later. Still, you should plan on some rain arriving later Tuesday and certainly into a colder Wednesday.

Unlike Monday and Tuesday, which had plenty of rain but also lots of warmth, Wednesday and Thursday will be the much colder back half of the cutoff-low pattern. The humongous system finally starts pulling east — a little — Tuesday night. That leaves it colder along the Minnesota border with the Dakotas. The rest of us are mild enough.

Wednesday afternoon is going to be pretty raw, with afternoon temperatures likely stuck in the 40s and 50s. You might want to layer up, because the biting north wind will also add a chill and drive the smaller raindrops sideways. Ick.

Both of the maps above look really similar. They are not identical at all, one is the morning lows, one is the afternoon highs. There just is not much chance to warm things up. The rain will also continue in earnest, though the amounts are dialed back from earlier in the week. The final showers exit Thursday morning in the Arrowhead and Driftless areas of Minnesota.

Late week chill ahead

Most of Thursday and Friday are substantially drier across the Land of 10,000 Lakes. We will have increasing sunshine but also decreasing temperatures. We should not expect to get much above 50 degrees on Thursday in southern Minnesota, and only into the 40s across more northern parts of the state. Several maps do not have places like Duluth ever getting to 40 on Friday, while the Twin Cities might struggle to hit the middle 40s.

Most of Minnesota is likely to have several lows close to freezing Friday and Saturday. Maps have been keying on that for nearly two weeks — that this cold pool will arrive around that period. Still, the chances of MSP getting to 32 degrees is really low. I know it seems like a weird stat to fixate on — and Sven, Mandy, Sean and I are probably geeking out on this — but it is actually important because the growing season still remains alive in the Twin Cities. Folks still have blooming flowers and tomato plants producing tomatoes.

There could be a hint of snow on Saturday, but the weather maps are duking it out to see how much, if any, rain can materialize across the state that day. Right now, the dry weather is winning out big time. Following this, Sunday through at least next Thursday appears very tame. Not too warm, not terribly cold and totally dry.

Scattered rain showers will continue Tuesday into Wednesday and Thursday. Cooler, but seasonable air works its way in by the end of the week.

Periods of rain continue into Thursday

The first round of rain so far has really added up in northeast Minnesota. Grand Rapids received 3.19 inches, Chisholm had 3.05 inches as of early Tuesday. The Twin Cities and southern Minnesota had less. The Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport received 0.59 inches from early Monday through early Tuesday morning.

Clouds and occasional scattered rain showers will persist Tuesday into Wednesday and even Thursday. The rain will be steadier at times in portions of norther and western Minnesota.

Additional rainfall of up to a half to 2 inches is possible, especially in northern Minnesota. Add that to the 1 to 3 inches some in northern Minnesota have already seen. There could be some 5 inch rainfall totals by Thursday in portions of northeast Minnesota.

Temperatures will be mild Tuesday, in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees in the Twin Cities and southeast Minnesota, before slowly falling as cooler air works in from the west. We had a high at midnight Monday night of 66-degrees and the dew point reached 63-degrees in the Twin Cities.

Friday looks to be our coolest day with highs in the 40s statewide — close to normal. We should also see a dry day with some sunshine.

We’ll see a colder night Friday night. Lows will fall into the 30s and 20s, but we will see frost at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport yet? If we don’t dip to 32 degrees there by Saturday, this will be our second latest frost. Nov. 18, 2016, is the latest on record.

We should see some sunshine break out for Friday into the weekend. Temperatures will remain mostly above normal this weekend into early next week. Normal highs by early next week

We’re still warmer than average with the looming chance of the latest freeze in the Twin Cities’ history.

Washing Machine: Heavy Duty Cycle

The tumbling nature of this rain in a big loop is highly reminiscent of your at-home washing machine. So, it’s laundry day here in the MPR Weather Center and the spin cycle of rain is going. The upper-level low we have overhead through Wednesday morning has been in the forecast for more than a week; it’s a huge storm lumbering through the Plains and Upper Midwest. The center of the low is pinwheeling all around us, but northern Minnesota is very likely to have higher rain totals than southern communities.

As Sven Sundgaard mentioned in a note (and on Morning Edition), the amount of moisture to tap into is really high right now. We have about four times the amount of cloud-level moisture than we typically would in November, which is remarkable if you stop to consider that. The broader storm goes from Mexico to Canada, the Rockies to almost the East Coast. It is huge! That means we are not getting rid of the complex quite yet. Rain will lighten in southern Minnesota later Monday, pushing into northeastern Minnesota and Wisconsin. The above graphic shows the storm spinning back around, which means that much of the North Star State will have rain on Election Day.

But then we’re clear, right? Two days of rain? Nope! Rain showers are curling around yet again on Wednesday. This time, however, it is starting to turn colder pretty fast. Thursday finally kicks the rain out of here except for far eastern Minnesota, the Driftless, and Arrowhead. Usually clouds are really stubborn in clearing the ULL pattern — that’s an upper-level low, sometimes always named a cutoff low.

Colder stretch but no freeze yet

Meteorologists are always geeking out over numbers, stats and records, so this week is no different. From 71 degrees to start November, to the third warmest October on record, now we’re pinging what could be the latest first freeze in Twin Cities’ history! We will certainly be chilly Thursday into the weekend. These highs and lows are going to be pretty shocking, I believe, and yet they are actually totally normal for the first full week of November.

Bear in mind that we are basically all losing at least a full hour (or more) of daylight in November; it is hard to maintain such elevated temperatures, but we’ve held on for now! I think Sunday into Monday morning is likely to be the coldest, though we still are not forecasting a 32-degree reading for the Twin Cities quite yet. Even snow is pretty unlikely except along the Gunflint Trail, maybe a couple of isolated snow showers near the Apostle Islands or north of Thief River Falls.

The brand new 30-day outlook from our friends at the Climate Prediction Center also has a higher likelihood of relatively warm conditions lasting through the end of November, thanks to a super El Niño.

A slowly moving system will bring periods of rain and lots of clouds Monday into Thursday. Temperatures will be mild Monday and Tuesday before cooling mid to late week.

Waves of rain and clouds

A slowly moving upper-level trough will become cut-off and linger into Thursday.

Rain showers will develop from west to east Monday morning and we’ll have periods of rain on and off into Wednesday and even Thursday with the bulk of the rain falling Monday into Tuesday. The rain will be come in waves in southern Minnesota with steadier rainfall north.

Rainfall totals will be heaviest in northern Minnesota where 2 to 4 inches or more could fall in some spots. Southern Minnesota will see lesser amounts as we get in on the dry slot occasionally just south of the main low track.

Normal November rainfall is just 1.36 inches for the Twin Cities and we could get that in this one system. We’re behind by almost 7 inches of year-to-date rainfall, however.

It will also be quite windy so that rain will be nearly sideways at times. Winds will blow from the south at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph Monday in southwestern Minnesota.

We’ll remain rather mild Monday and Tuesday on the warm side of the system with highs in the 60s across southern Minnesota.

As the upper-low lingers and spins over the region, cooler air will gradually work into the system for mid to late week and the weekend.

By Friday, highs will be mostly in the 40s across the state which is actually right near normal. We’ll see overnight lows in the 30s finally Friday night with 20s north again.

While Friday should be mainly dry, already another system could bring more precipitation over the weekend

The mild weather prevailing across Minnesota on Sunday will give way to a system that will bring widespread, soaking rain to the region beginning early Monday and lasting through Wednesday. The heaviest rainfall is expected Monday afternoon and evening.

Widespread soaking rain Monday through Wednesday

A powerful, moisture-laden storm system will bring widespread rain to Minnesota beginning early Monday, with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall continuing into Wednesday. Most areas can expect at least an inch of rain, with totals of 1-2 inches common and locally heavier amounts of 3 inches or more possible, particularly in western and central Minnesota.

Along with the rain, winds Monday are expected to increase across southwestern Minnesota to between 25-35 mph.

There is also a low possibility of thunderstorms embedded as the system makes its way across the region, especially for central and southern Minnesota.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has included the southern half of Minnesota in the general thunderstorm area of its convective outlooks for Monday and Tuesday, meaning thunderstorms are possible, but any that develop would not be severe in nature.

Election Day weather

If you didn’t make it to your local polling place for early voting in the midterm elections, plan to bring an umbrella with you as you go to vote either on Monday (the last day for early voting) or on Election Day on Tuesday.

Rain is expected statewide on Tuesday with a few embedded thunderstorms possible for eastern portions of the state.

Welcome to November — which may feel more like late September. Enjoy the mild weather today, because a widespread, soaking rain system is on the way, bringing 1 to 2 inches of rain to much of the state.

A mostly pleasant Sunday

It’s been a mild but foggy, somewhat wet start to the morning so far. That fog will eventually dissipate this morning, leading to a mostly cloudy but unusually mild Sunday, with highs in the 60s and possibly lower 70s in southern and eastern Minnesota.

We’ll have one day — today — with mild, pleasant weather before an area of low pressure currently developing in the southwestern U.S. moves into our region, bringing widespread, soaking rain.

Rain arrives Monday and continues through Tuesday

The rain should begin early Monday morning for most areas, just around the time folks are heading to work or kids are heading to school. It will continue steadily throughout the day on Monday and into Tuesday before it begins tapering on Wednesday.

We’re expecting rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches for much of the state over a period from Monday through Wednesday. Some areas across west central Minnesota could see closer to 3 inches.

Mild temperatures to start the week, then cooler

We’ll see temperatures remaining above average for this time of year for the first half of the week, with highs in the 60s statewide this afternoon and mid-50s to low-to-mid-60s tomorrow. That’s still 10-15 degrees above normal.

Then, the cold front associated with that system will cool things down to more seasonable levels starting on Wednesday, though we’re still looking at temperatures about 5 degrees above normal as we move through the second half of the week.

A look back at the Halloween Blizzard

It was 35 years ago today that the Halloween Blizzard of 1991 pummeled Minnesota with heavy snow and strong winds — blizzard conditions — that blanketed the state with 1 to 3 feet of snow.

Early on Nov. 1, 1991, the Twin Cities had recorded 21 inches of snow so far, setting a new record for the greatest snowfall ever recorded in a 24 hour period in the Twin Cities. And that record still stands today.

Scattered rain will give way to pleasant weather Sunday before widespread rain moves in Monday into Tuesday.

Rain, rain go away

The mostly scattered showers that have been affecting parts of central and southern Minnesota during the day on Saturday will continue to taper off during the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. Scattered showers may lead to a brief shower or two for trick-or-treaters in the northeastern part of the state.

With the moist air in place—especially for areas where rain has fallen—there is a possibility of fog developing overnight. The areas at highest risk for fog formation are north of I-90 between Alexandria and Brainerd, but also north and east of Brainerd along the Iron Range to around Hibbing and Duluth.

A mostly dry and pleasant Sunday

Sunday looks like the nicest day during the upcoming week, with highs in the 60s across most of the state. No rain in the forecast for Sunday except for a slight change for places in far northern Minnesota such as Bemidji and International Falls.

The pleasant weather will be short-lived as a new storm system is expected to bring us widespread soaking rain Monday through Tuesday—1 to 2 inches statewide, with 2 to 3 inches possible in west-central Minnesota—followed by lingering showers and cooler weather Wednesday.

Don’t forget to turn your clocks back

Daylight Saving Time ends Sunday morning, so don’t forget to set your clocks back. Clocks will be set back one hour from 2:00 a.m. to 1:00 a.m.

Spotty Halloween showers will diminish across much of Minnesota Saturday afternoon. Following a pleasant day Sunday, a moisture-rich system will bring widespread soaking rain Monday into Tuesday.

A not-too-scary Halloween forecast

Don’t be scared of rain during the day Saturday, as the chances of precipitation are pretty low across the region and have actually decreased since a day or two ago. This is good news for trick-or-treaters, especially in central, southern and eastern parts of Minnesota.

We’ll see patching showers moving through mainly western and extreme southeastern parts of Minnesota and southwestern Wisconsin this morning and into northern Minnesota by this evening. For the most part, any rain will be diminishing from south to north across the state this afternoon, so umbrellas or rain jackets do not need become part of your Halloween costume, with the possible exception of parts of northern Minnesota, especially across the Iron Range and Arrowhead regions.

And even if it’s not raining, there could be areas of drizzle or fog, especially in northwestern and west-central Minnesota, so be careful, as sidewalks could be slippery and visibility reduced.

A pleasant Sunday

As we move into next week, we should see a fairly pleasant day on Sunday, with highs ranging from the upper 50s to the lower and middle 60s—roughly 10–15 degrees above normal.

Soaking rain moves in Monday

Things are shaping up for a wet start to the work week, however, a storm system currently developing over the Four Corners region will move into our area, bringing widespread soaking rain Monday into Tuesday, with 1–2 inches likely for many areas and localized totals exceeding 3 inches possible across western and central Minnesota.

The NWS Weather Prediction Center has much of Minnesota in a marginal risk area for excessive rainfall—that’s rainfall that’s forecast to exceed flash flood guidance levels—for Monday into Tuesday. It’s a very low probability, however, 5 percent, so any flash flooding should be isolated and mostly in vulnerable or flood-prone areas.

We do need the rain, however, as we’ve only received 1.4 inches throughout the month of October in the Twin Cities, which is just over an inch below normal for the month. We’re still more than 7 inches below normal for the year so far, however, so we need that moisture in the soil—especially before it starts freezing—in order to help mitigate drought conditions.

Extended forecast: drier and warmer

Drier and cooler weather should arrive later Wednesday into Thursday, though temperatures will remain generally above average for early November

Election Day is fast approaching and the weather could be a factor in the midterm elections. I’ve checked the latest on voting with our MPR Politics team — it’s great having experts across the newsroom — and they tell me that you can vote early through Monday. For particular hours at your location, consult the Minnesota Secretary of State’s website.

Before you get to the polls, or while you wait in line for early voting, you can see the races in your own precinct. The MPR voter guide is simple to use. Scroll down a little and you’ll find out how to see the races on your ballot.

Tuesday’s forecast

Unlike a lot of recent weather events that teeter back and forth on whether we’ll have rain or not, the forecast for Election Day on Tuesday has been pretty consistent for rainfall. This actually kicks off Monday, and that rain on Monday could be pretty heavy. Many could easily snag an inch of rain that day alone.

At the very least, you should expect to slosh around in puddles by Tuesday. As I type this Friday afternoon, the best chance for rain on Election Day is across eastern Minnesota with rain also highly likely in northwestern Minnesota. Both locations favor rain because of the upper-level low position. The humongous storm system will start moving towards Duluth and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan by early morning Tuesday, allowing drier air into western and central Minnesota.

Much like a spinning top that you played with as a kid, the spinning low pressure center itself will move around and not stay static. The low will shift back west and then move south, covering much of Minnesota with chilly rain. While the rain is on the cool side, we’re actually still likely to be well above average for November. It’s just that standing around in the rain while we’re in the 50s and lower 60s that might be chilly, depending on your comfort level.

Rain will also likely stick around parts of Minnesota throughout Election Day. Do you ever wonder what active weather means for elections across the U.S. or the world?

Turnout and weather

Sometime during my undergrad years, while plowing through multivariable calculus and fluid dynamics for meteorology, I took an elective on political science and the press. I have a vivid memory of (not surprising) the weather and its impact on election turnout, or how many many hold off on voting because of rain or snow.

New research on voting and weather shows that the influence of storms may be lower than previously expected on how many, or how few, people head to the polls. One of the biggest drivers is the prevenance of early voting. Not only can you choose your day to vote based around the forecast, but lines may not be as long on any particular day — thus not as much need to stand outside in the elements. In a new blog from the American Meteorological Society, meteorologist Amber Liggett Torres writes:

“While it’s hard to quantify large-scale effects, we know that severe weather can cause major disruptions on Election Day. For example, in 2014, midterm elections coincided with the aftermath of a major snowstorm in Maine that left at least 80,000 people without power. Authorities had to move polling places at the last minute and supply emergency heat and electricity. In 2018, in the aftermath of Hurricane Michael, movement and consolidation of polling places may have affected voter turnout.

“It’s worth taking into account factors that affect your access to the polls, and how they might be impacted by weather. Population density, local transportation infrastructure, voting norms, and polling-place location may all influence voting patterns and how voters respond to weather. In densely populated areas, some voters may need to navigate crowded transit or wait outdoors. In sparsely populated areas, polling places may be farther apart, requiring longer drives.”

Liggett Torres also sent me looking into the academic literature, including a 2023 study from two scientists in Denmark. The writers state what might seem obvious to you:

“Multiple studies have showed that bad weather, particularly rainfall, depresses turnout in many different electoral contexts and climates around the globe. However, notable exceptions exist,” they write. In Norway and South Korea, however, bad weather could actually cause a higher turnout. One of the findings really stood out to me; the impact on young voters is large when it rains. “Young voters are much more susceptible to weather effects, negative and positive, than more experienced voters,” the co-authors write.

For those voters who have not decided if they want to vote (different than an undecided voter who has not chosen who to will vote for), bad weather can also have big sway in heading to the polls or staying indoors, the scientists wrote. “We hypothesize that marginal voters are more susceptible to adverse weather effects on their voting behavior – and likely also to the positive effects of pleasant weather,” they said in the 2023 research.

Whether it’s Friday, Saturday, Sunday or Monday, you will have plentiful nice weather to be outdoors. Temperatures will be above average and most rain will be passing us by fast. So get out the vote, and get out the umbrella… just in case.

Before we were tracking storms, analyzing radar and talking about the forecast, the MPR News meteorologists were just kids getting dressed up for Halloween and hoping for good trick-or-treating weather!

Here’s a look back at the little ghouls behind your forecast:

Weather team-Halloween photos

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We've come a long way from those childhood costumes, but one thing hasn't changed. We're still keeping a close eye on Halloween weather.

So, what tricks and treats does Mother Nature have in store for us this Saturday? Let's take a look!

What’s brewing for Halloween?

We'll have plenty of clouds around, along with a few hit-or-miss showers possible throughout the day. Moisture in the atmosphere will be running well above normal, but the ingredient we're missing is the stronger lift needed to produce widespread rainfall.

That means showers will be scattered, rather than a steady, widespread rain. Some cities may get a little damp, while others could stay completely dry.

The bottom line: A few raindrops are possible, but the weather shouldn't put too much of a damper on your Halloween plans!

How does this Halloween compare to the past?

Minnesota has certainly seen its share of tricks when it comes to Halloween weather!

According to the Minnesota DNR's State Climatology Office, the normal Halloween high temperature in the Twin Cities is around 50 degrees. But we've experienced quite the range over the years.

• The treat: Halloween 1950 holds the Twin Cities record for the warmest Halloween, with a high of 83 degrees!

• The trick: Halloween 1991 is one we'll never forget. A major winter storm brought 8.2 inches of snow to Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport by midnight, with much more snow to come!

• The wet stuff: Halloween 2024 was the wettest on record in the Twin Cities, with 1.26 inches of precipitation.

• A little perspective: Measurable precipitation has occurred on Halloween in the Twin Cities only about 27 percent of the time.

And here's another interesting statistic: The last three Halloweens (2023 to 2025) all featured measurable precipitation in the Twin Cities. Let's see if 2026 can break that streak!

Our Halloween forecast: More treat than trick!

While a few showers could make an appearance Saturday, widespread rain isn't expected. Keep an eye on the sky, but don't let a few potential raindrops scare you away from the festivities. Temperatures will trend above the seasonal average in the low to upper 50s.

Whether you're heading out trick-or-treating, handing out candy, or enjoying Halloween festivities, have a fun and safe Halloween!

The MPR News weather team hopes your Halloween is filled with more treats than tricks — and just a few less raindrops!

Temperatures will continue to be warm for this time of year, averaging about 15 degrees above normal into early next week. Forecast models show an increasing likelihood of rain for next week.

Continued mild into November

Friday will be another seasonably mild day with afternoon highs back well into the 50s and low 60s in southern Minnesota despite the chilly start. Look for high clouds to increase, filtering the sun out a bit.

Halloween will be on the milder side of normal too, mainly in the 50s with some 60s. Normal highs for Halloween range from about 50 degrees in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota to the low 40s in northeastern Minnesota.

We’re still looking at a few isolated light rain showers potentially Saturday but nothing that should interfere with trick-or-treating or outdoor activities.

Sunday and Monday will likely be even warmer, mostly in the 60s for highs again ahead of a developing storm system for next week. We could be in for a prolonged period of occasional rain showers and lots of clouds for a good chunk of next week.

Forecast models dump 1 to 3 inches of rainfall potentially across large areas of the region. This would be very welcome moisture to get in the ground before it freezes as we count down the days left of meteorological autumn.

Central Minnesota saw showers and thunderstorms Wednesday as a cold front swept across the region before cooler, drier weather settled in behind the system. The front has since moved east of Minnesota, allowing high pressure to build into the Upper Midwest.

Thursday and Friday will be sunny but cooler than Wednesday, with highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid-50s. Temperatures will still remain above normal for late October.

Beneficial rain showers Wednesday

Wednesday’s rain showers brought some much-needed and beneficial rainfall across the region, providing a welcome boost to soil moisture after periods of drier conditions.

Rainfall totals varied across the area, with many locations receiving around one-half inch to more than 1 inch in central Minnesota, near the St. Cloud area.

More rain chances ahead

Dry weather is expected to hold through Friday night, but rain chances will return Saturday as another weather system approaches the region.

Scattered to numerous showers are possible, mainly across southern Minnesota, although rain could extend as far north as Alexandria and the Brainerd Lakes area.

The next more widespread round of rainfall is expected Monday into Tuesday. Forecast models suggest that a developing Upper Midwest storm system will track south of Minnesota and spread a broad area of rain showers northward across the state.

That setup could bring a longer-lasting, soaking rain to Minnesota, with abundant atmospheric moisture helping support widespread precipitation.

Temperatures stay mild for late October

Temperatures are expected to rebound heading into the weekend, with highs Sunday into Monday reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s in parts of the region.

Cooler conditions will return behind the early-week system, with highs settling back into the 50s by the middle of next week.

For now, the forecast calls for a brief break from the rain before unsettled weather returns over the weekend and another, potentially more persistent, round of rainfall arrives early next week.

Thursday will be cooler but still nearly 10 degrees above normal. Sunshine returns, and the overall mild weather continues into the weekend.

50s and 60s Thursday, mild into the weekend

Thursday will be cooler but still above normal. Afternoon high temperatures will range from near 60 in southern Minnesota to near 50 north. Those readings are still almost 10 degrees warmer than normal for Oct. 29.

We’ll also see sunshine Thursday and most of Friday. Far northern and far southern Minnesota will see a few more clouds at times.

High clouds will start to increase Friday, filtering the sun at times.

High temperatures will remain above normal into early next week. For the Twin Cities and most of southern Minnesota, that means highs near 60 degrees or even into the mid-60s by Sunday.

A few showers are possible on Halloween, but I think most will stay dry most of the day. There will be more clouds around, but it will still be on the milder side.

Prolonged, rainy period possible next week

We’re eying a potential storm system for early next week that could deliver soaking rains somewhere in the region. It may track through Minnesota or it may take a more southerly route through mostly Nebraska and Iowa.

Right now, models are starting to come into agreement around a prolonged soaking rainfall. We could see 1 to 2 inches of rain early to mid next week.

We are watching for isolated, damaging hail and damaging, straight-line winds Wednesday afternoon and evening — along with a chance of a tornado or two. This is really the only part of the country under a severe weather bulletin for the day.

After Wednesday, we get a little bit cooler closer to Halloween, but temperatures remain above average. There are still no big signs of frosty cold weather around southern Minnesota all the way until at least the middle of November.

Tracking Wednesday storms to sun

Even as the sun broke through clouds later Wednesday morning, we were already at the warmest part of the work week. Temperatures were already about 10 degrees above the average high for the day, and I’m sure you felt the humidity if you’ve ventured outside to do a run or grab a coffee. We have really high dew points moving from northern Iowa into south-central and southeastern Minnesota as the day progresses. That gives us moisture, but we also have some sheer, lift and instability. Those four ingredients are something we call S.L.I.M.

Storms began to flare up across western Minnesota by early Wednesday afternoon, but these are not expected to be severe nor especially organized. Don’t be surprised if you hear thunder rumbling. After 2 p.m. Wednesday, we get a few more of the ingredients needed for strong to severe storms. This will be around the Interstate 90 corridor closer to Austin and Rochester.

The 4-7 p.m. window has the most severe weather potential for the Twin Cities metro region over east towards the Wisconsin border. Briefly damaging hail, gusty winds and an isolated tornado are our major issues. Although lightning does not make a thunderstorm severe technically, you will want to be aware of lightning potential for outdoor activities.

The last time Minnesota had October tornadoes was in 2021 and there were nine of them that month! Thankfully autumn severe weather is somewhat rare regionally, but that doesn’t mean it’s nonexistent. Best thing to do is to have multiple ways to receive warnings (car radio, NOAA weather radio, friends texting you, WEA setup on your phone, etc.). After 8 p.m. Wednesday, we could still have a few thunderstorms, but the main severe threat timing is closed.

Leading up to trick-or-treating

Thursday, Friday and Saturday all have a lot in common; while you will likely notice a little bit of a cool down, the weather is still pretty mild given the season. We will have temperatures in the upper 50s around the Twin Cities all the way to the upper 40s for some in northern Minnesota.

The lingering question for me is what does Saturday afternoon look like? The weather maps have been going back-and-forth on rain potential for Halloween. The most aggressive map in the previous few days has dialed back the rain intensity, but still has a few rain showers for the Twin Cities, up Interstate 94 toward St. Cloud and then north towards Brainerd. Other weather maps just have spotty showers in the same area. Right now I’d plan on some stray rain for Saturday afternoon, with southwestern and northwestern Minnesota trending a little drier for trick-or-treaters.

Next week’s storm system and Election Day rain

Sure looks like we will have a large rainmaker ejecting out of the Rocky Mountains early next week. This storm system wants to be hundreds of miles tall by hundreds of miles wide, so it’s a big complex of rain with a lot of potency for wind and low pressure (which could make your joints ache). It’s a pretty classic late fall upper-level low. Plainly said, that means it will probably stick around our region for quite a long time.

Wednesday will be warmer and even a bit muggy with late-day storms ahead of a cool front. It’ll be cooler Thursday behind the front but still mild and above normal through the weekend.

Warm and potentially stormy Wednesday followed by sunshine Thursday

In the continued bizarre tale of our very warm October, we’ll see a combination of three factors more typically seen in early September or August.

The first factor will be warmer-than-normal temperatures Wednesday afternoon. That’s been pretty common this month. Afternoon highs will be in the 60s and low 70s.

The second factor is even rarer for near-November: some muggy air from the Gulf moving in at least briefly.

Dew points could top 60 degrees Wednesday afternoon ahead of a cool front. We’ve only had 60-degree dew points twice this month, on Oct. 1 and Oct. 12. The average dew point for late October is in the 30s.

The third factor Wednesday that takes both these unusually mild temperatures and unusually high dew points into account are thunderstorms.

The mild and muggy air combined with an advancing cool front and upper-level disturbance will touch off scattered thunderstorms later Wednesday afternoon and evening.

What’s even more rare than all those things above is that they’ll combine to form a slight (level 2 of 5) severe weather risk Wednesday afternoon and evening across east-central Minnesota into western Wisconsin with a broader marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for much of southern and central Minnesota.

A few storms could be severe:

All severe weather hazards are possible Wednesday afternoon but in particular we’ll be watching for isolated tornadoes.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center gives the Twin Cities area a 5 percent probability of tornadoes.

There will be sufficient moisture and shear to organize storms into a few, discrete supercells that could produce tornadoes. One forecast parameter we watch is the “significant tornado parameter,” which for late Wednesday afternoon is elevated:

October tornadoes are rare but not unheard of

The last time Minnesota had October tornadoes was 2021. We had a whopping nine tornadoes that year, including one in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness that did significant damage. That tornado on Oct. 10, 2021 was rated an EF-2 with maximum winds of 120 mph.

In the past 20 years, there have only been two Octobers with tornadoes: 2021 and 2013. Prior to that we had October tornadoes in 2004, 1997 and 1996. So, roughly 1 in 6 years we see tornadoes in October. The last time this year we had severe weather near the Twin Cities was Aug. 7.

Mild weather through Halloween

Behind Wednesday night’s cool front, temperatures will dip for Thursday some, but still be about 10 degrees above normal, near 60 degrees in the Twin Cities. We’ll also see sunshine return in abundance.

The mild weather persists through Halloween weekend and our transition into November. Highs will be near 60 degrees in southern Minnesota with above-freezing overnights.

From thunderstorms to Halloween trick-or-treating weather, we’ve got a lot to talk about.

Snow no more, warmth returns

As expected, the snow flying was merely a novelty for winter lovers. You’d really have to be a night owl, or a third-shift worker, to see much fly. A hint of snow stuck in parts of North Dakota and South Dakota, but we have not witnessed any reports of snow sticking in the North Star State.

Rain is pulling out of Minnesota by early Tuesday afternoon, with the Mississippi and St. Croix Rivers being the final stop. Fog is definitely an issue (and always will be in this muggy autumn weather setup, which traps moisture over and over) in central and northern Minnesota.

Tuesday night should be a little milder and a lot drier. That said, a few isolated rain showers are possible along the Interstate 90 corridor in southern Minnesota. There is a pretty steep difference in temperatures overnight; from the mid-30s north, 40s on the North Shore, mid-40s through much of Minnesota, and a warm nose of temperatures in far southeastern Minnesota.

Thunderstorms kick off in the early afternoon Wednesday for western Minnesota, spreading east and developing further through dinnertime Wednesday. While the below image of high temperatures seems pretty mild, we think this will be very brief. There’s a quick surge of moisture north that corresponds with a fast warm-up, but this will only last a couple of hours.

While widespread severe storms do not appear likely at all on Wednesday, a few could be strong. The graphic below highlights this rush from the northwestern Iowa corn belt and lake resorts, up towards St. Peter, Mankato and Rochester. Lightning is more likely than anything else, so just be mindful for any outdoor plans later Wednesday.

The Little Dipper

In the lower lefthand corner of my work computer, the automated weather blurb has been yelling at me about temperatures falling later this week! Yes, even meteorologists have that Windows weather alert that comes stock on many modern machines. Sure, it will get cooler, but we’ll still end up well above average. There will also likely be a few novelty snowflakes flying around Thursday night into Friday morning. This goes from Roseau to the International Falls area, then onto Voyageurs and the Boundary Waters.

Lingering warmth past Halloween

The big question for me is what any rain could look like on Halloween. New modeling from the Europeans has us mostly dry on Saturday, which is a change. The Canadian mapping has a little afternoon rain near the Twin Cities, while an American map called the GFS is really rainy through the afternoon. The inconsistency is obviously not our favorite! We like to see a real trend and, honestly, there is no reliable trend on Halloween precipitation at the moment.

We do think the windshield wiper back and forth for Halloween will resolve itself soon, however. What we can say is that Halloween is likely to be a fairly mild day of temperatures. Upper 50s may not sound very warm, but they’re nearly 10 degrees above normal. Plus, I’m sure you’ve heard about a certain Blizzard in 1991 around here… so it can be much colder and active.

By Monday next week, it’s the Weatherman’s Woe: Beware the Cutoff Low. A jumbo U.S. storm comes out of the Rockies and just pelts us with rain chances through much of the next workweek. While we do have lots of time to fine-tune the forecast, Election Day looks like it could be really soggy with rain.

Lingering shower activity will diminish Tuesday morning with temperatures already warming back into the 60s south. October’s final days will be mild with additional rain chances.

Rainfall and, yes, some snowfall amounts

We received some nice rainfall over the past 24 hours. A steady, light rain added up to one-quarter to 1 inch for much of central and southern Minnesota Monday into early Tuesday.

In the Twin Cities officially, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport picked up one-half inch. Delano, west of the Twin Cities, picked up 1.14 inches.

And yes, not that far away, there was snow in the Dakotas!

Luverne, N.D., about 45 miles west of the Minnesota-North Dakota border, received 1.1 inches of snow. A few northern Minnesota locations, at least briefly, reported some snow flakes, including Moose Lake at about 5:35 a.m.

Lingering showers end, warmer temps return

We have some lingering showers Tuesday morning that will be lifting north. Northeastern Minnesota will likely continue to see scattered showers into the afternoon. We could see some afternoon sun break out, especially in southwestern Minnesota.

Afternoon highs will be back above normal, in the 60s for southern Minnesota with 40s and 50s north primarily. Those readings are back 10 to 15 degrees above normal in southern Minnesota.

Wednesday will be even warmer. Low 70s could pop into southern Minnesota in the afternoon hours. Clouds will be back on the increase again after a little sunshine to start the day.

The next upper-level disturbance and cool front will touch off the next round of scattered showers and, possibly, even a few thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and evening into Wednesday night.

We’ll also see dew points get close to 60 degrees in southern Minnesota, a rare feat so close to November.

Mild through Halloween

The remainder of the week is mild. Southern Minnesota will continue to see highs of 60 degrees or warmer right through the weekend with 50s and 40s mainly north. This includes Halloween Saturday and the first day of November on Sunday.

We could also see another chance of showers over the weekend but forecast models are murky on that front yet. A better chance of more organized rainfall looks possible early next week.

The Twin Cities has passed its average first-freeze date, but temperatures at Minneapolis–St. Paul International Airport have yet to dip to 32 degrees or colder this fall.

Late freezes have happened before

The typical first-freeze date is Oct. 11, putting the metro area behind schedule as we approach the end of the month. But how unusual is this extended stretch without freezing temperatures?

According to the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, about 90 percent of autumn seasons historically recorded a temperature of 32 degrees or colder in the Twin Cities by Oct. 28. The Twin Cities’ first fall freeze has arrived in November just eight times in the historical record: 1894, 1900, 1921, 1924, 1931, 1940, 1958 and 2016.

The most notable record came in 2016, when the Twin Cities didn't record its first fall temperature of 32 degrees or colder until Nov. 18. That was 11 days later than the previous record of Nov. 7, set in 1900.

The timing of the first fall freeze varies considerably across Minnesota. Northern parts of the state typically see their first freeze in September, while locations farther south generally don't reach freezing temperatures until October.

As shown in the graphic above, much of northern Minnesota has already experienced its first freeze, with the exception of parts of the North Shore and Duluth area. Farther south, portions of the Twin Cities metro and areas south of St. Cloud have yet to dip to the freezing mark.

Looking ahead, it appears the Twin Cities will have to wait a bit longer for its first freeze. After a cool, rainy start to the week, temperatures are expected to rebound quickly, with highs climbing into the 60s Tuesday through Friday. Overnight lows are forecast to remain in the 40s through the end of October. As a result, the Twin Cities looks likely to head into the final days of October without recording its first temperature of 32 degrees or colder.

The bigger question is what happens as we move into November. With the average first-freeze date already in the rearview mirror and the Nov. 18, 2016 record still ahead, the Twin Cities has plenty of room for a later-than-average first freeze. We'll have to watch for the next push of colder air to see when temperatures finally reach the freezing mark.

It’ll be chilly with scattered rain showers Monday into Monday night. Warmer air moves in mid to late week. We’ll also have some additional rain chances later in the week.

Cool, showery Monday before milder air returns

The same upper-low that finally broke down the warm pattern of last week, combined with the stalled cool front to the south is delivering clouds and some rain on Monday.

Look for scattered rain showers Monday into Monday night and early Tuesday. Showers will linger for northern Minnesota into midday Tuesday. Southwestern Minnesota could see up to 1 inch of rainfall with lesser amounts north and east.

Portions of northern Minnesota could see snow flakes overnight mixing in with showers.

One of the warmest Twin Cities Octobers

Highs Monday will be the coolest of the month, mostly in the 40s. That’s just a few degrees cooler than normal in this very warm October.

We’re likely to finish October as the second-warmest on record in the Twin Cities out of 153 years. Our recent stretch of four consecutive days in the 70s from Wednesday through Saturday was the latest such streak in a season on record.

Warmer air moves in again Tuesday with decreasing clouds. We should see at least a little afternoon sunshine. Highs will be in the 60s across southern Minnesota.

The milder air sticks around for the duration of these final October days. Afternoon highs through at least Halloween Saturday will be in the 60s across southern Minnesota, nearly 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

We have some additional rain chances developing late Wednesday into early Thursday and potentially over this weekend.