Wildfires are nothing new in Minnesota. They’ve been forming by lightning, often from what we call, dry, thunderstorms, for pretty much all of history.

There are even matching tree ring records that show wildfires beginning along the modern day Canadian border and slow slowly venturing south towards the Gulf Coast. Last fall, I spoke with Dr. Cecil Frost. He is a fire historian based in North Carolina, and I met with him on the campus of Duke University. He told me about these truly mammoth fires, which also went from the Rocky Mountains to the Appalachian mountains. This tree ring science - dendrochronology - can show us how far fires spread. But they were really common!

Because there was no one to put these fires out, wildfire returned to the Minnesota landscape every few years, and turned through the brushy under story. With wildfires so common, thickets and brush and other ground-based material was quickly burned off, and so fires were more ‘gentle’ than we might have today.

When dry thunderstorms arrived on July 6, the 2026 version of wildfires had, pardon the cliche, the perfect storm. The winter snowpack was fully melted and totally gone. We’d seen reports of creeks running ultra-low near the Boundary Waters, the Mississippi had its lowest late spring flow on record, and much more. The point here is this: on paper, the drought never looked that bad. Despite being at a really low drought, we knew things were dry. Sven Sundgaard wrote me this on July 13th: “it's easy to forget they've had a fraction of the rain we have.. one Ely area coop is 1.78” only since June 1…. Normal up there (June 1- present ) is 5.59.”

If you notice the date above - July 6th - that might seem like a mistake, right? After all, the wildfires exploded in growth on July 13th. So, what gives? These lightning strikes a week before hit a single tree and probably smoldered quietly; it’s much the same if you were to try and protect an ember in a wet campfire. When weather conditions became ripe for massive growth (up to 40X in less than a day on the Camp Fire!), those embers spread. We had truly unprecedented temperatures in the Boundary Waters, with at less nine weather stations climbing above 100 degrees. Collectively, this was the hottest day in the history of this part of the state. On a rolling average, this was the second hottest stretch for this time of year on record. See the note from Dr. Mark Seeley.

In just the last couple of days, more than 1,000 firefighters and other support staff around Superior National Forest have made massive leaps forward in fire containment. We also just had some incredibly helpful rains Friday night. In addition, other lightning storms have mostly spared us - even though they were over the same area. That was incredibly lucky. Here’s a quote from Superior’s late Saturday briefing:

“Last night’s storm brought measurable rainfall across the fire area, with 1 to 1.5 inches recorded over the northwestern portion of the perimeter and 0.42 inches observed near Ely. The showers will moderate fire behavior in the short term, but above normal temperatures and sunny skies today will dry fuels and support surface fire activity by the afternoon.”

That really shocked me! Even after all that rain Friday night, by Saturday afternoon, it was effectively fire risk time once again!

I’ll be the first to admit: the climate change impact since 1970 for Minnesota wildfires have been fairly flat. We’re not going to hype that risk because of this huge event. That said, you can check out the spring and fall fire weather days in Minnesota. Summer and winter are not as favored for wildfires. One thing we are seeing more of, though, is derechos. These long-lived wind events (you may have heard of the Bemidji Blowdown or the 1999 Boundary Waters Blowdown) do indirectly add wildfire risk. With millions and millions of logs knocked down, dried out, and sitting, that acts as kindling if a wildfire does form. We have a ClimateCast coming very soon about the increasing risk of decrechos, with science coming from Northern Illinois University’s meteorology team.

Goodness, did those storms ever develop in northern Minnesota Friday evening. Two very small tornadoes, with more straight line winds than anything, and exceptionally heavy rain near Warroad and Roseau. A storm chaser’s car was nudged off a dirt road by a strong gust, but not much damage was reported by the actual tornado. Most reading this paragraph stayed totally dry with more crispy lawns forming across Minnesota.

We have widespread ‘Extreme Heat Warnings’ posted across Minnesota. The clouds will begin to break apart later in the morning all across northern Minnesota, with more sunshine happening after 1:00 p.m. Saturday across the Twin Cities. The rest of the day is dry, just really hot. We’re going to be in the lower-to-middle 90s across the broader region, feeling even hotter with the higher humidity.

Sunday remains, shall we say, the most tricky forecast challenge for the next week. The start of the day is sunny and just plain hot, overall. We have highs in the middle-to-upper 90s and a feels-like temperature approaching 105 at times. By Sunday evening, the ‘cap’ on the atmosphere is really intense. That means that the air about a mile up is really hot. As surface-level hot air rises, we hit that lid and poof, the storm chance kind of disappears. That said, *if* storms can get moving in central Minnesota, then they’d turn severe, given the high heat and widespread energy to tap into up high. And because of that cap, damaging wind is a possiliblity, but only if the cap breaks down.

Monday through Wednesday are also really warm, into the lower 90s. Time to get out the sprinklers because there is not much rain out there. That could change on Thursday as some weather maps have big thunderstorms that crumble the heat dome pattern over us for the moment.

After sprinkles held our temperatures down through the Twin Cities Friday morning, we still await the true arrival of the heat wave which is coming this weekend. Just as a reminder, most of Minnesota is dry on Friday, at least once the morning sprinkles pass.

We will get some limited sunshine at times on Friday across the state. That sunshine primes the pump for severe weather chances in far northern and northwestern Minnesota Friday evening, with the mesoscale convective system line of storms. A lot of us will have temperatures in the lower to middle 80s; that’s just a little bit warmer than what we’ve had each of the past couple of days as the heat ridge develops to our south.

They will also be a few tiny little leopard spot showers (that’s what I call garden variety showers because to me, they look more like a leopard’s randomized spot pattern) along the interstate 90 corridor.

The main event for the state as a hole is the severe weather chance Friday evening. The Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma is highlighted the northernmost five percent of Minnesota for a little bit higher tornado risk closer to 7 p.m. to 10 p.m.

There could also be some damaging winds, along with a larger hail. Given the expanded drought that we just saw become official on Thursday, in the Boundary Waters, there is that increased risk for wildfires. Basically, we don’t want to see lightning over dry forest. That could act as a fire starter.

On the other hand, the downpours that eventually come with the thunderstorms Friday should help Fire activity a little bit in the Boundary Waters. It does look like the heaviest rain will be more in northwestern, parts of Minnesota, however. We cannot rule out an isolated tornado in the far north, closer to Lake of the Woods.

Saturday is the first big-time jump in temperatures we’ve noticed this week. Many of us will have abundant sunshine, a little bit more humid conditions, and the southern tier of Minnesota, and high temperatures going well into the 90s in many places. Saturday is still a pretty dry day.

That’s apart from some scattered rain in the Arrowhead Saturday morning — that should offer a little boost for busy firefighters.

Sunday is perhaps the biggest question in the extended forecast period. How strong will storms become if we have too much cloud-cover? Will the clouds strangle the chance of hitting 100 degrees in spots? A much broader region of the state — almost all of Minnesota, really — is in this yellowed risk map. That’s slight risk, aka level two out of five.

The extreme heat warnings are posted all over now, and the middle-to-upper 90s are going to be very noticeable. We are also officially in the corn sweat part of the yearly calendar, and the humidity will be really present along the Iowa and South Dakota state lines. The heat wave should last through at least Thursday, possibly even longer.

Heat and humidity are building back in for the weekend. Northwest Minnesota will see storms late Friday and Friday night. There will also be spotty storm chances late Sunday for many.

Heat builds in for the weekend with periodic storm chances

It will still be relatively comfortable in eastern Minnesota Friday with highs in the 80s, but low 90s will start to push into northwest Minnesota for afternoon highs. We’ll see a mix of low clouds and sun and even a few sprinkles early on as muggier air moves back into the region.

Dew points will be increasing Friday as well, so while the temperatures won’t be so hot yet, you’ll notice it becoming stickier by Friday afternoon and certainly by Saturday.

That increase in moisture and heat combined with the next incoming disturbance grazing the international border will touch off storms later Friday in northwest Minnesota that will then track east overnight. A few showers or a thunderstorm could make its way south very early Saturday.

There’s a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms in northwest Minnesota with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for much of northern Minnesota for Friday into Friday night. Initial storms could produce isolated tornadoes with an emerging high wind threat along with large hail.

Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the 90s for much of western, central and southern Minnesota, along with dew points near 70 degrees.

The combination of high dew points and temperatures in the 90s will make for afternoon heat index values between 95 and 105 degrees both Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

There’s an extreme heat watch for Saturday and Sunday for the Twin Cities and south central Minnesota.

There will be a chance for spotty storms, especially Sunday night, for much of the state and potentially isolated activity Monday. Confidence in placement and timing of storms Sunday night is low at this point.

Whatever storms do develop could become severe, however. There’s a broad slight risk (level 2 of 5) forecast for potential severe storms. In particular, high wind gusts could be the threat Sunday evening into the overnight.

A very weak cool front will be sweeping through Monday. It will only drop temperatures and dew points slightly. Expect highs to remain near 90 degrees much of next week in southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities.

The weather will soon get more active. That said, Sven Sundgaard has a terrific writeup for you on the severe storm potential Friday and to wrap up the weekend in the morning version of Updraft.

For Thursday afternoon, the three of us on the MPR Weather staff thought you might want to learn more about the expanding drought. We, in turn, wanted to learn from you.

Let's start with the CMOR. That means Condition Monitoring Observer Reports. And that means the ground truth from what you all are seeing across Minnesota.

In Duluth, we turn to an extremely knowledgeable observer who goes by “apanda,” who's been around for well over a decade. They report:

• Wilting on annual flowers/crops/vegetables

• Leaf scorch on annual flowers/crops/vegetables

• Increased supplemental irrigation

• Wilting on perennial flowers/shrubs

• Dry lawn (browning in growth season)

• Dusty/cracked soil

In addition, they say animals are struggling to find their own clean water and that creek gauges are extremely low.

On Monday, “JE” reported in from the Twin Cities metro area. They said the drought has only been like this a couple of times and it's "fairly widespread. Areas without irrigation are turning very brown and soils are dry/dusty."

Thursday, a farmer in Murray County sent in this update. While the drought is not unheard of, they are concerned for late season harvesting: "Fair — Less than normal crop condition. Yield loss is a possibility, but the extent is unknown." As for livestock feeding issues: "Fair — Pastures are providing generally adequate feed but still less than normal for the time of year."

If you're wondering how to check these reports out or how to submit yourself, here is a zoomed-in view of the free federal product.

To look across all of Minnesota, you may not see a ton of change across the broader Thursday drought report. Drought did expand into the Boundary Waters, not shocking given the fires. In St. Louis County, for example, severe drought (we also call it D2) effectively doubled. Outside of the broader Wilderness area, drought did not change much.

That said, this is only one tool. We've had quite the dry turn of weather across the Twin Cities and other zones and that doesn't always show up in the following week drought monitor.

We’ll see temperatures warm back into the 80s for many Thursday and Friday. Heat and humidity return for the weekend, and we’ll see a couple thunderstorm chances.

Starting to warm up with heat, humidity back this weekend

It’s another coolish, comfortable start to the day early Thursday. It should remain comfortable with dew points in the 50s, but temperatures will start to increase with many more 80s on the Minnesota map this afternoon.

The heat and humidity are building back in for the weekend. Dew points remain comfortable Thursday and Friday but will increase into the 60s and even 70s for Saturday and Sunday.

Friday highs will be in the low 90s in the Red River Valley with widespread 80s for much of the rest of Minnesota.

Saturday and Sunday will bring highs in the upper 90s to southwest Minnesota and mid-90s in central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities.

We will see some thunderstorm chances. The first chance develops late Friday for northwest Minnesota. Some of those storms could be strong or severe and will track east across northeast Minnesota, which could really use the moisture.

There’s even a slight (level 2 of 5) severe risk for northwest Minnesota Friday into Friday night with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across much of northern Minnesota.

We’ll see a chance of storms farther south potentially late Sunday into Sunday night and early Monday. Hopefully, we can get at least some occasional rainfall with this next round of heat since we’ll be on the edge of it rather than in the dry center.

Some places around Minnesota have dropped 60 degrees in the last week to nearly frosty levels, but the heat is expected to return on Thursday. Substantial rain is unlikely anytime soon. Even Saturday’s promising rain threat is sputtering out for Minnesota.

Comfortable temps, then heat returns

We knew things would be ultra-comfy for most of Minnesota on Wednesday morning, but we were pretty close to freezing in Embarrass and Brimstone, 38 and 36 degrees respectively!

It was all about the clearing skies and light winds, plus low dew points, leading to atmospheric decoupling Tuesday night. Thanks to MPR News meteorologist Sven Sundgaard for the morning temperatures readouts.

We have a bunch of clouds pinwheeling around a really weak short-wave low-pressure center. That’s holding temperatures down for all of us on Wednesday.

Summery temperatures return on Thursday.

Slim chances for heavy rain

Despite the cloud cover lingering Wednesday, there’s really not much rain expected through Friday. There may be a couple of raindrops around the Interstate 90 corridor, the Twin Cities and the Arrowhead.

Even Saturday’s rain threat, which looked promising for a week, is sputtering out for Minnesota. The block pattern shifts this more into Michigan’s Upper Peninsula.

We may catch some Saharan dust that’s moving around Tropical Storm Bertha in the Gulf of Mexico. The dust will be up high and probably not even be noticeable.

Up north, air quality should be great despite wildfires in the Boundary Waters and Canada. The air quality index was better in Ely than the Twin Cities and most of the rest of the United States Tuesday into Wednesday.

Wednesday will bring a day of cooler-than-normal temperatures and comfortable dew points again. Thursday and Friday should remain pleasant before it heats up again.

A couple more pleasant days before heat returns

It’s a downright cool start to the day for a change.

Morning lows were in the 40s in northeastern Minnesota with most of the state seeing 50s. Brimson dipped to 36-degrees early Wednesday, down from a high of 94 last week.

Embarrass, typically our cold spot, saw a morning low temperature of 38 degrees. The town was as hot as 96 degrees last week!

Afternoon highs will be cooler than normal for most of the state by a few degrees, mostly in the 70s. Dew points will be comfortable in the 50s, even falling into the 40s for some. Skies will be partly cloudy.

We’ll have another comfortable overnight with lows dropping again into the 50s for most under mainly clear skies.

Temperatures start to increase again for Thursday and Friday but dew points should remain decently comfortable in the 50s.

Those dew points will increase this weekend just as the heat also returns. Expect the muggy air to stick around into next week mostly.

Already Friday afternoon we’ll likely see some highs near 90 degrees in the Red River Valley. Those highs in the 90s will spread across most of western, central and southern Minnesota for Saturday into at least early next week.

There will be some periodic, at least spotty storm chances as this time we’ll be on the northern edge of the heat dome, which will be centered more around Kansas, Oklahoma and Colorado instead of right over us like last week.

The first such chance should arrive for northern Minnesota late Thursday night into Friday and Friday night. A statewide chance is possible Sunday into Monday. Confidence in the timing and placement of these storms is low at this point.

There aren’t many chances ahead for heavy rain. Slightly lower temperatures will help slow evaporation, but we need more rain as soon as possible.

Cold front brings some heat relief

We said goodbye to the 90s late Monday evening as a cold front swept through.

I was talking Tuesday with my MPR News colleagues, meteorologists Mandy Thalhuber and Sven Sundgaard, about how much more pleasant it feels in Minnesota after days of sweltering humidity. Mandy was bragging about her porch and the sweeping breeze. Call me jealous!

The cooler weather won’t last the entire week, so soak up the cooler, light breeze while you still can.

Wednesday is really mild with temperatures well below average all across Minnesota. There may be a tiny stripe of rain in the Arrowhead Wednesday and Thursday, but the rest of the state remains dry.

There is a chance for rain on Saturday in areas of Minnesota that could really use it:

Something else we’ll keep an eye on is the potential for rapid onset drought. Without much rain chance for western Minnesota and into the Dakotas, plus higher heat coming, drought in the shallow layers of the soil is troubling to meteorologists.

Minnesotans can look forward to a refreshing change as cooler temperatures follow the historic heat wave, along with improved air quality over the next several days.

Breathing easier

Improved air quality is expected over the next couple of days with much of the state returning to good (green) air quality by Wednesday.

For Tuesday, northerly winds will bring another wave of moderate wildfire smoke into Minnesota from fires burning in Canada's Northwest Territories. As a result, air quality is expected to remain in the yellow (moderate) category across much of the state.

Conditions will improve across northern Minnesota during Tuesday afternoon as cleaner air moves into the region. Most of northern Minnesota is expected to see good (green) air quality by later Tuesday afternoon.

One exception remains northeastern Minnesota, where active wildfires and favorable fire weather conditions could lead to increased local smoke production.

The forecast continues to call for moderate (yellow) air quality in that area due to the potential for smoke impacts near active fires.

By Wednesday, persistent northerly winds are expected to push any remaining smoke out of Minnesota. Air quality is forecast to improve statewide, with good (green) conditions possible across the entire state.

Hundreds of wildfires continue to burn across Canada, particularly in the Northwest Territories, Ontario, Manitoba and Quebec.

While the fires remain active, favorable northerly winds have already improved air quality across Minnesota and are expected to keep significant smoke out of the state through midweek.

Forecast near-surface smoke concentrations remain low across Minnesota as northerly winds keep the heaviest wildfire smoke well to the west and north. Only light smoke is expected to drift into parts of the state on Tuesday.

Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 70s for most. That’s 5 to 20 degrees cooler than Monday for most. The heat returns by the weekend, however.

Cooler and more comfortable for a few days

Monday was our 10th consecutive day of high temperatures in the 90s in the Twin Cities. That’s the longest such stretch in 76 years and ties for the third longest on record!

We even beat 1988 for the longest stretch of consecutive 90s, although 1988 remains the winner for the most total 90s in a summer — 44 days!

That streak is now over thanks to Monday night’s cool front. Highs Tuesday will range from just the 60s in northeastern Minnesota to near 80 degrees in the Twin Cities, a full 10 to 15 or more degrees cooler than Monday afternoon.

Air quality continues to be an issue for portions of the state. Check the latest air quality conditions, alerts and forecasts here:

We have a nice, cool night on the way finally for Tuesday night for a change. Lows will fall into the 40s across northeast Minnesota with mostly 50s in central and southern Minnesota. Even in the urban heat island of the Twin Cities we should drop just below 60 degrees.

Highs Wednesday will be again mostly in the 70s with some low 80s. Dew points will remain comfortable in the 50s Tuesday into Thursday and could even drop into the 40s Wednesday.

Enjoy the break because the heat is building back by the weekend into early next week. We’re likely in for at least few more 90 degree days.

In addition to the heat, after a few days of lower, more comfortable dew points, the muggy air builds back in as well for the weekend into early next week.

The difference with the heat this time comes with the center of the heat dome being much farther southwest.

That will allow “ridge rider” disturbances along the northern edge of the upper-level ridge/heat dome for Minnesota. Friday and late Sunday look to be the best chances but storms will still be spotty.

After what has felt like an endless stretch of heat and smoky skies, there's finally some good news for Minnesota.

Breathe easier, literally

For the first time in days, we don't have an air quality alert due to wildfire smoke. While a little light smoke could drift in overnight on northwest winds, it won't have much impact. That's a welcome change after several days of hazy skies and poor air quality.

Monday also marked a significant milestone in the record books. It was our 10th consecutive day with temperatures reaching 90 degrees or higher, making this the third-longest 90-degree heat wave in Minnesota history. Only the legendary heat waves of 1948 and 1936 lasted longer.

It's been an exhausting run of relentless heat and high humidity.

A cold front is now sweeping across the region, bringing an end to this remarkable stretch of summer heat.

Ahead of the front, very humid air remains in place with dew points in the 70s and even lower 80s, creating plenty of fuel for thunderstorms. A heat advisory remains in effect until 7 p.m. for much of southern and east-central Minnesota, where heat indices are climbing well into the triple digits.

Any storms that develop will have the potential to produce damaging winds, large hail, heavy rainfall and even isolated tornadoes. The main severe threat remains off to our south and east, mainly affecting northeastern Iowa and Wisconsin.

Once the front passes, a much different air mass will settle in.

It will feel noticeably cooler and far less humid, and that refreshing air will stick around through the middle of the week. High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while overnight lows fall into the 50s and 60s.

Even more noticeable will be the drop in humidity, with dew points falling into the 50s and even the 40s at times.

After 10 straight days of 90-degree heat, it'll be a welcome opportunity to open the windows, spend time outside and give air conditioners a well-earned break.

The cooler weather won't last forever, though. By next weekend, the summer heat begins to build back into the Upper Midwest. High pressure is expected to remain over the Plains as temperatures climb once again, with highs potentially returning to the 90s by Saturday and Sunday.

For now, enjoy the break. Cleaner air, lower humidity, and comfortable temperatures are exactly what Minnesota needs after one of its longest and most intense heat waves on record.

It’ll be steamy Monday with early morning storms and more storms developing southeast later in the day. Behind that cool front, we’ll get a few days of nice weather before heat returns.

Hot with storm chances Monday, then a cooler break

There will be two rounds of storms in our region Monday. Early morning activity will continue to push southeast and diminish through the morning. The morning storms dumped quite a bit of rainfall in especially Waseca and Steele counties where more than 2 inches fell in many areas.

Skies will clear and with hot, muggy conditions ahead of an advancing cool front, more storms will fire up likely in far southeastern Minnesota, northern Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin Monday afternoon and evening.

There’s an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms across far southeast Minnesota into Wisconsin with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for a larger portion of southeast and southern Minnesota south and east of the Twin Cities area.

Monday afternoon storms could produce all severe hazards.

Highs Monday will be back in the 90s across central and southern Minnesota with muggy dew points hovering around 70 degrees. That will make for heat index values in the range of 95 to 100 degrees Monday afternoon.

There are heat advisories posted for much of eastern Minnesota for Monday afternoon and evening.

Heat and higher dew points making for heat index values near 100 degrees for portions of central and southern Minnesota.

Air quality alerts also continue for portions of Minnesota Monday due to wildfire smoke.

Check the latest air quality conditions, alerts and forecasts here:

Behind the cool front we’re in for a few days of more-seasonable and comfortable weather! Dew points will drop into the 50s and largely stay there Tuesday through Thursday.

Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 70s to low 80s across most of Minnesota, which is actually even a few degrees cooler than normal for a change.

It appears the heat returns for the weekend. After a few nice, comfortable days, anomalous heat is likely to return by the end of the week into next week yet again.

We could very well be in for a string of 90-degree days again, so if you don’t like the heat definitely make plans to enjoy the midweek weather.

If you think it's been an exceptionally hot stretch across the Twin Cities, you're absolutely right.

The numbers back it up. With today's high reaching 90 degrees at Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport (MSP), the Twin Cities have now recorded nine consecutive days with temperatures of 90 degrees or higher. That ties for the third-longest streak of consecutive 90-degree days in Minneapolis recorded weather history and puts July 2026 among the city's most significant heat waves.

The streak isn't over just yet. If the Twin Cities reaches 90 degrees again Monday, July 2026 would stand alone in third place with 10 consecutive 90-degree days. The two longest streaks are expected to remain untouched: 14 consecutive days in 1936 and 11 consecutive days in 1948.

By Tuesday, temperatures are expected to return to near or even slightly below normal for late July, accompanied by noticeably lower humidity. After more than a week of relentless heat, the change will be a welcome one across Minnesota.

Heat, wildfire smoke, and the threat of severe thunderstorms will all play a role in our forecast before cooler, more comfortable air arrives by Tuesday.

Heat, smoke and storms

Wildfire smoke continues to be a concern with air quality alerts continuing for northeastern and southeastern Minnesota. Thicker plumes of smoke will be more concentrated in Wisconsin, but hazy skies and reduced air quality will continue in southeastern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area.

Warmer temperatures for Sunday have prompted a heat advisory for the Northland, except for areas near the North Shore. Heat advisory in effect from 11 a.m. to 8 p.m. with heat indices in the mid-90s possible.

High temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s and lower 90s today, extending the Twin Cities' streak of 90-degree heat to nine consecutive days. That would rank as the third-longest stretch of 90-degree days on record for the metro area, trailing only the 14-day streak in 1936 and the 11-day streak in 1948.

Ahead of Monday's cold front, hot and humid conditions will continue. Afternoon heat index values will climb well into the 90s, with portions of southern Minnesota potentially approaching 100 degrees.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Sunday night into Monday. The first opportunity arrives late Sunday night as storms develop across the Dakotas and move east into Minnesota.

These storms may organize into a large thunderstorm complex, known as a mesoscale convective system (MCS), capable of producing widespread damaging wind gusts.

A second round of storms is possible Monday afternoon as a cold front moves through the Upper Midwest.

The exact location of the front, and whether morning storms linger long enough to limit afternoon redevelopment, will determine where the greatest severe weather threat sets up.

At this time, Wisconsin has the highest risk for severe weather, where an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been outlined by the Storm Prediction Center. If storms develop, all severe weather hazards will be possible.

Behind the cold front, much cooler air will settle into the region Tuesday. High temperatures will drop into the upper 70s and lower 80s, slightly below normal for mid-July, with noticeably lower dew points The middle of the week also looks relatively quiet, offering a welcome break after several days of heat and storm chances.

The weekend's quiet weather won't last much longer. Temperatures will warm back into the upper 80s and low 90s Sunday while wildfire smoke lingers across eastern and northeastern Minnesota. By late Sunday night, attention shifts to our next round of potentially strong to severe thunderstorms.

Air quality alert expanded for southeastern Minnesota

The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) has updated its wildfire smoke alerts for Minnesota. The Air quality alert for northeastern Minnesota has been shortened and will now expire Sunday 7 p.m. as the smoke plume shifts.

At the same time, a new air quality alert has been issued for southeastern Minnesota from early Sunday through late Monday morning, where smoke is expected to drift in from the east. Periods of unhealthy air quality are possible in both alert areas.

Sunday will be a bit warmer, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. A return to south and southwest winds, along with plenty of sunshine, will push temperatures up ahead of increasing storm chances Sunday night.

Attention then turns to our next weather maker as the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms increases across the Upper Midwest.

Storms are expected to develop across the Dakotas Sunday evening before moving into parts of central Minnesota late Sunday night. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of western and central Minnesota under a level 1 of 5 (marginal) risk for severe weather during this time, with the potential for damaging winds.

By Monday, the focus shifts east. As the cold front advances, eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have the greatest chance for severe thunderstorms.

The SPC has upgraded parts of east-central Minnesota and much of western Wisconsin to a level 2 of 5 (slight) risk, with portions of southeastern Minnesota under a level 3 of 5 (enhanced) risk. Storms Monday afternoon and evening could produce damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

Behind Monday's cold front, much cooler and less humid air settles into the region. Highs Tuesday through the middle of the week will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with overnight lows dropping into the 50s and 60s.

Looking ahead, longer-range forecasts suggest warmer temperatures could begin returning by next weekend as high pressure strengthens once again across the central United States.

Wildfire smoke and air quality alerts remain our focus through the weekend, with some smoke intrusion possible Saturday night. Our next best chance of showers and thunderstorms comes Sunday night into Monday.

Air quality alert continues for the Arrowhead

An air quality alert is in effect for parts of northeastern Minnesota as another plume of wildfire smoke moves south from ongoing fires in Ontario.

The highest smoke concentrations are expected across northeastern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin, where air quality may reach levels that are very unhealthy.

Farther south smoke is expected to be much less significant. Mostly haze and periods of reduced visibility are possible, especially late Saturday into Sunday across places like east-central and southeastern Minnesota.

Overall, we're not expecting a repeat of the widespread poor air quality many experienced earlier this week, but things can change as smoke forecasts are updated.

Friday night's cold front will bring a bit of relief across Minnesota, ushering in lower humidity and temperatures a few degrees cooler than we've seen in recent days. Highs on Saturday will reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees, a welcome break from the extreme heat warnings and heat advisories that covered parts of the state for much of this week.

Our next weather system arrives late Sunday into Monday as a stronger disturbance moves across the northern Plains. There is increasing potential for strong to severe thunderstorms with the potential for hail and damaging winds.

Exactly where the strongest storms develop will depend on the timing of the approaching cold front, something forecast models are still working out.

Behind Monday's cold front, much more comfortable weather settles in. Highs Tuesday will only reach the upper 70s to lower 80s, with temperatures remaining near to slightly below average through the middle of next week.

The weekend forecast features a welcome break from the heat along with isolated thunderstorms, possible wildfire smoke and improving conditions by midweek.

Cold front pushes through Friday night

A cold front is moving southeast across Minnesota Friday night, bringing some cooler and less humid air behind it.

As the front moves through, isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop, mainly across northeastern and east-central Minnesota and western Wisconsin, especially east of Interstate 35.

While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few stronger storms could produce gusty winds and small hail.

Saturday will feel much more comfortable thanks to lower humidity, although afternoon temperatures will still reach the warm side. The biggest difference will be the much less sticky air, making it far more pleasant to spend time outdoors.

Light smoke may drift into parts of Minnesota on Saturday with higher concentrations possible Saturday night into Sunday. Confidence remains low because smoke concentrations will depend on wildfire activity and changing wind patterns, but it's something to keep an eye.

An air quality alert remains in effect through Monday 11 a.m. for northeastern Minnesota.

The quiet weather won't last long. Moisture will begin increasing again late Sunday, setting the stage for another round of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday morning.

Monday could be another 90-plus degree day depending on how Sunday’s storms shape up.

High temperatures will settle into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees by Tuesday with overnight lows dropping into the 50s.

The cooler, drier air will provide a welcome break after several days of dangerous heat and humidity.

The smoke continues to retreat some Friday. It will be another hot day before temperatures very subtly drop into early next week. There are only spotty rain chances ahead.

Smoke retreats a bit, at least temporarily

Air quality alerts continue for much of Minnesota Friday and Saturday due to wildfire smoke.

Check the latest air quality conditions, alerts and forecasts here:

The worst of the smoke retreated some late Thursday into the overnight due to light south winds returning. That trend will continue some Friday but unfortunately smoke remains thick in northeastern Minnesota.

Last really hot day before subtle cooling

The extreme heat warning continues one more day for the Twin Cities metro are into Friday evening. Heat advisories cover much of central and southern Minnesota.

It will still be hot this weekend but not quite to extreme heat criteria.

Afternoon highs Friday will be hotter once again with clearer skies over central and southern Minnesota. Look for highs in the mid-90s.

We have some scattered showers and thunder Friday in far northern Minnesota ahead of the first of two cool fronts. Any moisture is welcome up there. Some lucky spots could get up to one-half inch of rainfall.

As the front advances, we could see a few thundershowers overnight Friday farther south.

Behind the first front, temperatures cool just enough to be under extreme heat warning or heat advisory criteria but still hot. Most of southern Minnesota will still be close to 90 degrees Saturday through Monday.

Another slowly moving cool front pushes through Sunday night into Monday. That could touch off a spotty thundershower chance for central and southern Minnesota finally and finally bring in cooler air behind it.

Highs Tuesday into midweek will be in the mid-80s, which is close to normal. Overnight lows will drop into the 60s in southern Minnesota with refreshing low 50s in northern Minnesota.

Wildfire smoke has once again become the dominant weather story across Minnesota, with air quality rapidly deteriorating to dangerous levels across much of the state.

Smoke from large wildfires in northeastern Minnesota and southern Canada has settled in, sending fine particle concentrations soaring and pushing many locations into the highest categories on the air quality index.

Air quality alert continues

The sky may look hazy but the bigger concern is what you can't see.

A thick plume of wildfire smoke has pushed air quality across much of Minnesota into unhealthy and hazardous territory, with some monitoring sites recording some of the worst conditions seen in recent years.

An air quality alert remains in effect through 11 a.m. Friday for nearly the entire state, with the most dangerous conditions expected across central, northern and northeastern Minnesota.

Areas farther west and northwest are expected to see very unhealthy (purple) conditions, while portions of western and southeastern Minnesota remain in the unhealthy (red) category.

Air quality has deteriorated rapidly

Just as a reminder, the air quality index is a scale used by the Environmental Protection Agency to describe how clean or polluted the air is and what health effects people can expect.

Air quality alerts continue for much of Minnesota Thursday and Friday due to wildfire smoke.

Check the latest air quality conditions, alerts and forecasts here:

Under normal summer conditions in Minnesota, air quality index values typically range between 20 and 50, which falls in the good air category.

During this smoke event, many communities have seen readings climb well above 300, with some monitoring sites briefly approaching or even exceeding 1,000.

Several monitoring sites have already reached hazardous (maroon) levels, the worst category and one where the air poses health risks to everyone, not just sensitive groups.

The graphic below shows just how quickly conditions deteriorated at the Hibbing monitoring site on Minnesota’s Iron Range.

Fine particulate matter concentrations (PM 2.5) shot above 800 µg/m³ (micrograms per cubic meter of air). Readings above 225.5 µg/m³ are considered hazardous, highlighting the extreme level of smoke impacting the region.

What was relatively clean air just a few days ago has rapidly climbed into the hazardous category as dense smoke settled over the region.

The Twin Cities have experienced an equally dramatic increase. Air quality readings climbed rapidly Wednesday evening and overnight, reaching levels rarely observed in Minnesota.

At times, fine particulate matter concentrations have exceeded previous records, making this one of the most significant smoke events. Ely set a new record with a PM2.5 concentration of 797 µg/m³, while Blaine in the Twin Cities recorded a new record of 342.8 µg/m³.

How long will the wildfire smoke last

The good news is that relief is on the way. The bad news? Exactly when the smoke clears is incredibly difficult to predict.

According to Matt Taraldsen, supervisory meteorologist with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, forecasting wildfire smoke is especially challenging because it's a combination of weather and atmospheric chemistry.

Weather models have their own uncertainties, and smoke models rely on those forecasts while also trying to account for how much smoke is being produced and where it will travel. As Taraldsen explained, much of the data used to forecast wildfire smoke takes time to become available. Satellites detect the heat from active fires and estimate smoke production from those observations, but that process can take several hours.

When a wildfire grows rapidly, the smoke models may still be using an outdated fire footprint. As a result, forecasts can underestimate both the amount of smoke being produced and where the thickest smoke will ultimately travel.

A cold front will move across Minnesota Friday, bringing in northwest winds that will help push out some of the smoke and bring cleaner air into the state.

Air quality should gradually improve from northwest to southeast through the day, although areas closest to the ongoing wildfires, especially northeastern Minnesota, could continue to see lingering smoke.

Until then continue to limit time outdoors, avoid strenuous activity and keep an eye on updated air quality forecasts.

This has been an exceptional smoke event, with some of the highest particulate readings ever observed in parts of Minnesota.

We still have a few more days of heat to get through in central and southern Minnesota. There are only some spotty rain chances ahead. Smoke will likely move north a bit again Thursday.

Smoky air lingers

Air quality alerts continue for much of Minnesota Thursday and Friday due to wildfire smoke.

Check the latest air quality conditions, alerts and forecasts here:

The current poor air quality broke state records Wednesday as the smoke continued to blanket northeastern Minnesota and migrate south through the day.

The poor air quality is affecting the entire Great Lakes region with unhealthy or hazardous air quality in Milwaukee, Chicago, Detroit and beyond.

The smoke will begin to move slowly back north late Thursday as south winds develop again over the Twin Cities and central Minnesota.

Friday should bring better air quality for the Twin Cities at least. Below is a forecast for near-surface smoke Thursday into Friday:

Heat continues a few more days

In central and southern Minnesota we still have a few more hot days left to cope with. Extreme heat warnings for central Minnesota have been extended through Friday evening.

Afternoon highs Thursday will again be in the mid-90s across much of central Minnesota while northern Minnesota continues to be a bit cooler, mostly in the 80s. Heat index values will continue to be in the 95 to 100-degree range central and south.

Friday will be hotter with clearer skies in the Twin Cities before a very weak cool front drops temperatures a few degrees for the weekend.

By weak, I mean weak. We’re talking about highs still near 90 degrees for the Twin Cities and much of central and southern Minnesota Saturday through Monday.

As for rain chances, we’ll see some spotty showers Thursday in northern Minnesota with a slightly better chance of more scattered showers or thunder Thursday night into Friday and Friday night.

While it’s unlikely to put out the fires, it will help by raising relative humidity values.

Central and southern Minnesota may see an isolated thunderstorm or two develop Thursday.

A slightly better chance of some spotty thunder Sunday night into Monday develops as a more potent cool front drops temperatures to seasonable readings, in the 80s next week.

Wildfire smoke, wind and heat are dominating Minnesota’s weather right now. Here’s an update on the status of those conditions, along with the possibility of rain.

Smoke

The current smoke levels are extremely dangerous for human health and will continue to be an issue. Minnesota repeatedly broke its record for worst air quality on Wednesday.

The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency’s air quality monitor in West Duluth went to nearly 1,000 for its hourly reading, which blasts past the “hazardous” category into new territory for the state.

The smoke is nearly stagnant because of the heat dome pattern, so it’s just sitting over the North Shore of Lake Superior. Slightly different fires in Canada are driving the smoke toward Ohio and Massachusetts, where you’ll hear more about it on the national news.

Up next, the smoke slowly moves south toward the Interstate 35 corridor, inching closer to the northern suburbs of the Twin Cities. This could then turn back to the northwest late Wednesday, pushing the smoke plume into central Minnesota and back over the Boundary Waters.

The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency updated its air quality alert through Friday, widening the range of hazardous air in central and northeastern Minnesota and putting the Twin Cities into the “very unhealthy” category.

Rain

We do have a little rain in the far north of Minnesota late Wednesday morning but not enough to douse the smoke or shift the winds. Little of this will reach the ground and it certainly will not kill any fires. But the added humidity may slow the spread of fire for a brief time.

There is a tiny window for rain in the Twin Cities on Wednesday between 4 p.m. and 6 p.m.

There will be a few rain showers Thursday and Friday in the far north, along the Minnesota-Canada border.

The storm track could start to change on Saturday. The best chance of rain Saturday ranges from Duluth south along the 35 corridor and then parallel to the Mississippi River. The western half of the state has very little chance of rain.

We then wait for Monday’s front to pass south, which theoretically could bring the best widespread chance of rain in a week-and-a-half. If we don’t get rain then, we may need to wait until next Friday for a widespread round of rain.

Heat

Some spots in the north will be cooler. With all the smoke, the solar insolation isn’t as strong, and that will hold down temperatures.

The air temperature in the Boundary Waters stands at around 70 degrees Wednesday afternoon, even though the Twin Cities are in the 90s already. Some of this is from smoke, some from clouds and a more humid air mass up north.

Places like Duluth could briefly get into the lower 80s the next few days but only if the smoke clears somewhat. If not, they’ll top out in the 70s along the Lake Superior shore.

The heat is strongest in the southern half of Minnesota. We should easily reach the 90s, probably even mid-90s, through Friday. From there on to Monday, we will be close to 90.

Winds

There’s a boundary over the BWCA on Wednesday that is stifling gusts. That’s better news because the winds that drive fires forward are weaker now, compared to earlier in the week.

The lack of wind is also causing the smoke to sit still, effectively clogging Minnesota’s north with hazardous smoke levels. The winds will be light, out of the east, moving west, through at least early Friday.

On Friday, a weaker low-pressure system moves into northern Minnesota and then onto western Wisconsin.

By later Saturday and into next week, we get some stronger steering winds from northwestern Canada up in the clouds level.

Our hope is that the smoke will really blow out of our local region by later Saturday. That sets up a recurring northwest flow pattern into next week. That could bring rain, which could also help with smoke.

Northern Minnesota will cool off into the 80s Wednesday but temperatures in the 90s continue for central and southern Minnesota through Saturday. Rain chances will be few and far between.

Smoke creates air quality problems

Extreme heat warnings and heat advisories persist for central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities.

Air quality alerts continue for much of Minnesota Wednesday due to wildfire smoke. Officials logged a new record Wednesday morning for Minnesota’s worst wildfire smoke concentration:

Check the latest air quality conditions, alerts and forecasts here:

The smoke has been showing up on Duluth’s weather radar occasionally. Ely is about 80 to 85 miles north of Duluth so the radar beam is hitting the smoke at about 5,000 feet up. That means the smoke is reaching more than a mile into the atmosphere and blowing east and southeast.

The smoke is so thick and abundant it’s now reached the northeast of the U.S. and is wrapping around, clockwise, over Washington, D.C., and back to Indiana, Illinois and Missouri.

Air flows clockwise around large high-pressure areas and heat domes such as this. There is some bright white, which is cloud cover, but the dirty gray is all smoke. This image is from Tuesday evening:

Forecasting where smoke moves can be difficult but forecast models show wildfire smoke migrating south, following a slowly moving, weak cool front Wednesday night into Thursday. The Twin Cities may stay on the edge of the worst smoke:

Hot, dry weather continues

Afternoon highs will be in the 90s for most of central and southern Minnesota once again Wednesday afternoon with lots of sunshine. Winds will be fairly light, mostly under 10 mph.

The heat index Wednesday afternoon will again range from 95 to 100 degrees in central and southern Minnesota thanks to dew points in the 60s.

It’s more of the same for those of us in central and southern Minnesota through Friday or Saturday. The 90s don’t look to break for the Twin Cities until Sunday or maybe even Monday.

We’ll see some spotty showers and thunderstorms chances today into tomorrow across northern Minnesota. A better chance of rain develops Thursday night into Friday up north.

Total rainfall could get up to one-quarter to one-half inch along the international border for some lucky spots into Friday night.

Southern Minnesota may see the chance of some spotty thunder by the second half of the weekend or early next week as the cool front advances, but those chances are also sparse.

Following the worst day of heat in Boundary Waters history, the air quality from wildfire smoke is worsening. A minimum of nine thermometers spread throughout the broader Boundary Waters area reached 100 degrees, which is simply unheard of.

An update on smoke and wildfires

Fires underwent explosive growth on Monday, too. Take the Camp Fire. It was deemed so well taken care of a couple of days ago that it was deleted from some registries.

The fire came back and went from 40 acres in size Monday to 1,500 acres in just a matter of hours. Now, it is approaching 2,200 acres and evacuations have been ordered.

Tuesday may not be quite as hot in the Boundary Waters. However, smoke is building up around the North Shore. As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, Grand Portage has the worst air quality in all of the U.S.

Things are likely going to decline in other parts of the Arrowhead by Tuesday evening, especially around Ely and Duluth.

Fires are also likely to grow. A Canadian firefighting index, along with the FWI (Fire Weather Index) are both degrading through the day Tuesday as temperatures jump and dew points remain low.

Sunday and Monday saw notable spikes in smoke activity as fire grew by thousands of acres cumulatively. That, to some extent, is likely to continue in the next few days if wildland fire crews cannot get containment.

From Tuesday into Wednesday, wildfire smoke at the surface will curl around and should be noticeable in the Interstate 35 corridors, even in the Twin Cities. It is hard to say at this point if things will be as bad as 2025’s smoke, caused by Canadian wildfires.

What to expect with heat

As of late morning, many spots are racing for the 90s. The heat, coupled with ultra-low humidity in the Boundary Waters, is making firefighting challenging for several reasons: drier fuels, exhausted firefighters, water drops, etc.

All across the state, we expect highs in the 90s through at a minimum, Thursday and continuing in most places through the weekend. With some rain ahead this weekend, the northern third of Minnesota may end up in the lower 80s for a time.

Do not expect a relief to the heat anytime immediately soon. Lows overnight will also be in the low to mid-70s.

Rain stays away, mostly

For most of Minnesota, rain chances are exceptionally fleeting. That said, a tiny boundary has stayed hidden until noon on Tuesday.

Normally this would just be a very brief mention. But, because there is limited lightning over the remote Boundary Waters, there is concern among weather folks that this could spark a new wildfire in the backcountry.

Because the low-level air under these storms is so bone dry, there’s also a risk of accelerating downdraft winds that could fan the existing flames into fast-spreading fire behavior.

There could be a few showers Wednesday evening but only for the Canadian border country, running parallel to Minnesota’s border.

There could be a bit more helpful rain rolling in Friday to Saturday, again only for the northern districts. The signs pointing to weekend rain for the rest of the state, including Minneapolis and St. Paul, look more remote now.

Looking farther ahead, the next best chance for central Minnesota is probably next Monday. The next shot farther south may not be until next Thursday or Friday.

Northwestern Minnesota will be slightly cooler but most of the state will continue to bake in the 90s Tuesday afternoon and through the week. We’ll see only spotty thunder chances later in the week.

Hottest, driest weather north

Extreme heat warnings and heat advisories Tuesday will persist through Thursday for central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities. Red flag warnings are again posted for northeastern Minnesota due to elevated fire weather concerns.

There’s also an air quality alert for northeastern Minnesota due to wildfire smoke. Check the latest air quality conditions, alerts and forecasts here:

Smoke plumes are again visible Tuesday morning out of the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness into Ontario:

Winds will shift from out of the southwest to northwest Tuesday as a weak cool front moves south out of Canada. That will also shift smoke south.

The hottest temperatures were once again near the Minnesota-Canada border Monday afternoon.

Crane Lake and several locations in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area wilderness reached 100 degrees Monday along with extremely low relative humidity values in the afternoon.

Heat continues through the week with only spotty rain chances

Afternoon highs will be in the 90s for most of Minnesota once again Tuesday afternoon with lots of sunshine. Northwestern Minnesota will start to cool off some.

Afternoon heat index values will range from 95 to 105 degrees. Winds will be fairly light, mostly under 10 mph.

Highs Wednesday will continue to be in the 90s for most of central Minnesota with warm overnights particularly in the urban heat island of the Twin Cities.

Northern Minnesota will start to see relief Wednesday with highs cooling off into the 80s but farther south we’ll have to wait until Sunday and early next week for temperatures to drop below 90 degrees.

The heat dome will start to ease its grip allowing a cool front Saturday night to drop temperatures slightly for Sunday and bring a hopeful chance of at least some spotty storms.

Northern Minnesota may see some isolated to spotty thunder as early as Wednesday into Friday as the cooler air gradually progresses there. Farther south, we could see some spotty storms by Saturday night or Sunday into Monday as the cool front advances south.

We’re in the low to mid-90s all across Minnesota this week. The Arrowhead on Monday is having one of its hottest days ever recorded with wildfire smoke continuing in the Boundary Waters. There is not much rain relief until at least Friday across Minnesota.

At about 3:30 p.m. Monday, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency posted an air quality alert for wildfire smoke Tuesday into Thursday across northeastern Minnesota.

High heat bakes Minnesota

Intense heat is the big story across Minnesota. Temperatures were already nearing 90 degrees at noon Monday. While some of the heat advisories and warnings expire midweek, we don’t think there will be a drop-off until the start of the weekend.

At the tip of Minnesota’s Arrowhead region near the Canadian border, Grand Portage on Monday shattered its previous all-time hottest temperature, hitting 100 degrees. The previous hottest temperature there was 95 in June of 1995.

Seagull and Meander lakes in northern Minnesota also hit 100 degrees Monday afternoon, an extraordinarily rare number.

With only minor variation in cloud cover and temperatures, the thread continues to be high heat. We could see worsening ozone and perhaps a little smoke Monday but it will get worse as the week progresses.

Prior to Monday, the Twin Cities hit 90 degrees four times this year. That’s actually lower than the norm, but that all changes this week. We should at least double the number of 90s so far this year by the end of the week.

The Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness is temporarily closing public access starting Tuesday. The smoke has spiked in the afternoon each of the last two days and we’ve seen an enormous jump in afternoon smoke Monday, too.

That smoke plume will grow a little weaker overnight, which is good. But the winds will shift, driving the smoke right over Duluth on Tuesday. That will then meander down closer to the Twin Cities.

Following the hottest day in more than 100 years in International Falls, we’ll stay baking hot in the coming days. There are only a couple of chances of rain ahead, all the way through Friday morning. Notice the gray color below; this is really only a few sprinkles.

Perhaps some better rain chances and amounts are here later Friday into Saturday, which would allow temperatures to cool statewide, but it won’t be too chilly, just closer to normal.

Every second counts when thunderstorms develop. In a warming climate where lightning is expected to become more frequent, having advance notice before the first bolt strikes can make all the difference.

Early lightning detection in a warming world

As a meteorologist, I understand the science behind thunderstorms.

But I've also experienced them from a different perspective, as a mom sitting in the bleachers during countless baseball games, watching dark clouds build on the horizon and wondering whether play would stop before the first lightning strike.

Despite my background in weather, I was genuinely surprised to discover that systems existed that could monitor atmospheric conditions and provide another layer of awareness when there is a risk for lightning.

One system is the Thor Guard lightning prediction and warning system. Unlike systems that only detect lightning after it has already occurred, Thor Guard continuously monitors changes in the atmospheric electric field — approximately 170,000 times per second.

By analyzing these changes, it can identify conditions that are favorable for lightning to develop, providing advance warning before a strike occurs.

Systems like Thor Guard can give schools, golf courses, sports complexes, industrial facilities, airports and other outdoor venues valuable time — five to 20 minutes before lightning strikes — to move people to safety. The Twin Cities area has 19 operating systems.

More lightning in a warming world

Our warming climate will lead to the increase in frequency of lightning because warmer air can hold more moisture and provide more energy for thunderstorms.

For every 1-degree Celsius (1.8-degrees Fahrenheit) increase in Earth's atmospheric temperature, the atmosphere can hold about 7 percent more water vapor.

This additional moisture creates a more favorable environment for stronger thunderstorms and more frequent lightning.

As storm intensity increases, so does the likelihood of charge separation within clouds, resulting in more frequent lightning strikes. A warmer world is expected to bring more lightning activity in many areas.

As both a meteorologist and a mom on the sidelines, I know how quickly a beautiful day can turn into a dangerous situation when thunderstorms approach. We may not be able to control when lightning strikes, but we can improve how prepared we are.

Lightning will always be a powerful force of nature, but technology gives us a better way to understand and respond to it. In a warming world where lightning risks may increase, early detection and timely action remain two of our most important tools for keeping people safe.

Extreme heat warnings and heat advisories Monday and Tuesday. There is little chance of rain ahead. Temperatures cool off by the weekend slightly.

Excessive heat persists

Extreme heat warnings and heat advisories persist Monday into late Tuesday for much of central and northern Minnesota. There are also red flag warnings posted for northern Minnesota Monday afternoon and evening due to elevated fire weather conditions.

Fires continue in far northern Minnesota where conditions are much drier than in southern Minnesota.

Satellite imagery clearly shows the smoke plumes from the largest fires Sunday afternoon:

Afternoon highs will be in the 90s for most of Minnesota to near 100 degrees in the northern parts of the state.

The reason for the hottest readings in northern Minnesota is due to the placement of the center of the heat dome with the hottest air blowing up and around it into North Dakota, southern Canada and northern Minnesota:

Heat index values will range from 95 to as much as 110 degrees in northwestern Minnesota Monday afternoon.

The heat dome is massive. It’s about twice the size of the next largest heat dome in North Africa right now. You can see clouds and moisture moving around it, clockwise. This keeps us dry and hot in the center of the upper-level high-pressure area.

Tuesday will continue to be hot but northern Minnesota gets a reprieve as temperatures dip just a bit into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees there while 90s persists in central and southern Minnesota.

The heat breaks down some by the weekend with highs returning into the 80s by Sunday and early next week. In the meantime, the Twin Cities can expect highs in the mid-90s through Thursday.

There’s also not a lot of rainfall in the forecast — maybe just spotty thunder this weekend — but surface soils will dry out substantially this week with the heat and sunshine.

This week's heat wave will quickly close the gap between this year's slow start and a more typical summer, adding several more 90-degree days in just one week.

Racking up the 90s this week

After a relatively modest start to summer, the Twin Cities are about to make up for lost time.

As of this weekend, Minneapolis-St. Paul has officially recorded four 90-degree days for 2026. By the time this week's heat dome loosens its grip, that total will likely double to around eight or nine days, with afternoon highs expected to reach the low to mid-90s nearly every day through the end of the workweek.

According to the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, the Twin Cities average about 13 days at or above 90 degrees in a typical year. While we're still running behind the average number of 90-degree days for mid-July, this week's prolonged stretch of heat will quickly close the gap and serve as a reminder that summer is firmly in control.

Sunday's heat was already rewriting the record books across northern Minnesota.

International Falls soared to 98 degrees, breaking the previous daily record of 96, set in 1921. Hibbing also established a new daily record, reaching 92 degrees to surpass the old mark of 91, which had stood since 1966 and was tied again in 1969.

An extreme heat warning remains in effect across much of the Northland, while portions of central Minnesota are under a heat advisory. The core of the Twin Cities metro is also under an extreme heat warning through Tuesday evening, as dangerously hot temperatures combined with tropical humidity push heat index values into the upper 90s and low 100s.

Dew points are forecast to rise into the mid-60s and even the low 70s, adding a layer of tropical humidity to the air. While air temperature tells us how hot it is, the dew point measures how much moisture is in the atmosphere. As dew points climb, it becomes more difficult for sweat to evaporate, making it harder for the body to cool itself. This is what can lead to heat illnesses.

By week's end, the summer of 2026 will look much more typical on the thermometer, with the Twin Cities having nearly doubled its count of 90-degree days in just a matter of several days.

Summer is turning up the heat across the Upper Midwest, with the hottest stretch of the season arriving Sunday and lasting through Tuesday.

Scorching stretch ahead

An excessive heat warning is now in effect for the Twin Cities metro through Tuesday evening, while a heat advisory has been extended for surrounding areas. If you have outdoor plans over the next few days, be prepared for dangerous heat and very little overnight relief.

Our heat dome will bring temperatures soaring into the 90s, with some triple-digit readings for the Red River Valley area and northern Minnesota. An extreme heat warning is also in effect for the Northland as dangerously hot temperatures are expected through the first half of the week.

While much of Minnesota is preparing for oppressive heat, northern Minnesota is facing another serious concern: critical fire weather conditions.

A red flag warning is in effect from noon until 9 p.m. Sunday across portions of the Arrowhead and northeastern Minnesota, where hot temperatures, low humidity and gusty southwest winds could allow any fire to spread rapidly.

In addition to the red flag warning, burning restrictions are now in place across Cook, Lake and northern St. Louis counties due to the elevated wildfire danger.

Unfortunately, rain chances remain very limited this week. The same high pressure system responsible for the heat will also keep storm systems away from much of Minnesota.

This will likely be the most significant heat event of the summer so far, and the combination of multiple days with temperatures in the 90s, heat index values near 100 degrees and warm nights makes this a stretch to take seriously. Cooler weather isn't expected until later in the week.