Minnesotans woke up to a little chill this weekend. While it wasn’t anything out of the ordinary (we are actually a couple of days delayed in our first upper 50s for the southern end of the state), for a few, it could have been a quick moment of sweater weather. We have abundant sunshine across the North Star State Saturday, with almost exclusively dry conditions. If you’re looking at the regional network of radars and going ‘huh?’ on Saturday, fear not! This is not rain, but roost rings. These rings are the telltale sign of birds migrating, in this case flying south a little ahead of schedule.

For Saturday, highs around the Cities will be right around 80 degrees. Most others will be in the middle 70s, but some may not climb out of the 60s in the Arrowhead or where your cabin might be. Sunday’s main difference is the influx of high clouds coming in from north-to-south out of Ontario. Almost all of state remains totally dry this weekend.

But not all MPR listeners will (stay dry)! By late Sunday night, a mesoscale convective system that’s long been showing up on future radar plows south, just glancing off of the Sioux Falls, SD metro area. A few folks on the southwest side of the Minnesota River Valley could have some brief storms Sunday night and into early Monday morning. The rest of us are likely to remain dry until the first parts of Tuesday morning. That means more time for soils to dry out.

And above, you can see the rain moving in for Tuesday. The newest data available as we type this Updraft is, sadly, a little drier. The QPF (quantitative precip forecast) is a little lax on rain totals but we’ll just have to take the rain when we can get it. There’s still a chance of a cutoff low forming over us or the northern end of Lake Superior for Wednesday.

The State Fair forecast is also trending down on temperatures for the tail end of the huge event. That’s a new sign that we’ll have to monitor to see if it’s a one-off or something really looking more likely.

Well, everybody’s heard that the bird is the word!

Buoyed by post-frontal winds that come out of the north-northwest, migrating birds have been surfing those same winds, heading south for the cold stretch ahead. Just last night, Cornell’s BirdCast estimated nearly 250,000 migrating birds over Hennepin County alone.

Friday night, we expect around 230 million flying through the lower 48 states. Minnesota is the epicenter of bird migration.

This superhighway of birds even has a name: the Mississippi Flyway!

There are a bunch of warbler species, which some weigh less than a ping-pong ball. We also have indigo buntings (one of my favorite birds for their vivid colors), flycatchers, orioles, and something called a redstart. That’s all according to the Cornell bird experts.

This is pretty early in migration season, but the weather is just right. If you have plans to be outside, especially near marshy areas, you’re practically guaranteed to at least hear some birds.

I know some of you are thinking: “Enough about the birds already! Just give me the weekend forecast.”

Weekend planner

If you can get out of work early Friday, the weather is pretty incredible. Behind the same front drawing the birds, we have lower humidity.

We still look to have some storms firing up over Lake of the Woods Friday afternoon, after 4 p.m., but the storms are not as linear nor widespread as they’d looked before.

Our best opportunity for some evening storms stretches from International Falls to Hibbing and Duluth. We really need that rain in this area, even if it is a Friday.

As you can see above, there is a little chill in the air by August standards, coming in for Saturday. We’ll have widespread lows in the 50s, with temperatures around 60 degrees in the Twin Cities for Saturday morning’s coffee run.

By the afternoon, we’re dry with sunshine. Despite that, many in northeast Minnesota may not get out of the 60s!

Next rain chances

More rain comes for our region on Tuesday, with a low diving southeast out of Manitoba. The best chances of rain are early in the morning, as the front is fast moving.

On the heels of that surface front could be an upper level low (ULL). This, being potentially cut-off from the surrounding currents, could linger a little deeper into the workweek. That would actually be great news for rain chances, but only if that verified!

Look ahead to the State Fair skies

Let’s get ready for the Minnesota State Fair. Before the Great Get Together at the end of next week, temperatures will go back up. The 90s are fairly unlikely right now, but it will be quite warm (shorts weather) at the fair.

After that, the new September outlook features some drier-than-expected weather for far northern and northeastern Minnesota.

Cooler and drier air will be moving in Friday and into the weekend. Dew points will drop through the day Friday and there will be some isolated thunder north. Temperatures are back above normal next week.

Slightly cooler and drier air moves in for a nice weekend

Once again, rainfall was spotty and highly localized yesterday. There were two pockets of significant rainfall around Mille Lacs Lake and the Ely area. In those spots up to almost 2 inches of rain fell. Ely received 1.74 inches and Isle saw 1.41 inches. There were also several hail reports in central Minnesota from evening thunderstorms.

We have a very pleasant Friday and nice weekend shaping up. Afternoon highs Friday will be in the low 80s across most of central and southern Minnesota with mid-70s north and partly cloudy skies for all.

Dew points will start muggy, in the 60s, but fall through the day Friday to comfortable readings, in the 50s, by the evening and into the weekend.

There will be some lingering instability as temperatures cool off aloft, especially in northern Minnesota. Look for a few isolated to spotty showers and thunderstorms, mainly north this afternoon and evening. One or two could make their way into the Twin Cities by evening or after dark.

The weekend will be absolutely gorgeous for this second-to-last one of August and meteorological summer. We’ll see sunshine both Saturday and Sunday with a few high clouds Sunday. Afternoon highs will be in the 70s for most to near 80 degrees in the Twin Cities and pockets of the Red River Valley.

There will be some cool overnights also, especially Saturday and Sunday nights, with lows in the 40s in northeast Minnesota and 50s to near 60 degrees, south.

The next chance at any spotty precipitation is late Monday into Tuesday though it looks fairly unimpressive.

Total rainfall will be pretty sad unfortunately over the next 7 days. Perhaps only southwest Minnesota will see any precipitation of significance. Minnesota’s stubborn drought is likely to stick around for some time.

Overall, temperatures will be trending upward, to above-normal readings next week. The normal high in the Twin Cities slips below 80 by Wednesday.

What if I told you east-central Minnesota and the Twin Cities needed more than 15 inches of rain over the next three months to end drought? And what if you knew that the normal precipitation for an entire year around the Cities was about 31 inches? That includes melted snow, too. So, while drought technically didn’t expand much, and the mapping doesn’t really look much different from surrounding states, the alarm bells are going off for weather folks.

Rain is returning for much of the state on Thursday afternoon and into the evening, followed by a quick wave of storms on Friday evening. For now, a good-sized stripe of Minnesota is in the “Level Two” risk for severe weather, also called a slight risk. Damaging winds and hail are the biggest potential issues, and right in the middle of the state, during the middle of the afternoon on Thursday. While it is certainly more humid than previous days, the cloud-cover is making it a little cooler, at least for a time. The best chance of showers in the most-heavily populated parts of Minnesota is in the late afternoon, right next to the PM commute home. That could briefly slow down traffic, no doubt.

Another wave of storms tries to form over Lake of the Woods (or nearby) around 4:00 p.m. Friday. This then moves near Duluth, then basically dives straight south. Most of this is wrapped up by 9:00 p.m. Friday but a few sprinkles are possible very early Saturday morning.

Apart from that, the only rain chances over the weekend are inside the Arrowhead region, with some Saturday sprinkles. We’re fairly close to average, meaning the lower 80s around the Twin Cities. While there are some high clouds across the state on Sunday, it’s all dry and fairly mild. Great lake day or yardwork day!

There is another rain chance in western Minnesota starting early Monday morning - actually right in the heart of the Minnesota River Valley’s farming country. The light showers kind of dance all over Minnesota before finally arriving Monday night into early Tuesday morning closer to the Minneapolis, St. Paul, and surrounding suburban regions.

What we’ll be tracking - the weather maps are finally aligning - is a potential cutoff low coming out of the Prairie Provinces of Canada by next Wednesday. This often ‘blob’ of a circular system often holds temperatures down, and brings repeat chances of showers, even after the models stop the rain. If that forms, it could be a cooler start of the State Fair. If not, it will remain toasty later into next week.

Warmer and more muggy air is already returning Thursday on the back side of Wednesday’s high ahead of the next front. That also means the chance of storms returns Thursday.

Warmer, more muggy air and storm chances return Thursday

High pressure continues to drift off to the southeast of Minnesota. This allows for return flow from the south. That means warmer temperatures Thursday with highs returning to the low to mid-80s for much of central and southern Minnesota Thursday afternoon.

It also means dew points will be increasing Thursday. By Thursday evening, it will be quite muggy across central and southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Look for dew points to return to the 60s with some 70-degree dew points possible in far southern Minnesota at least.

The increase in heat and moisture is already producing a broken area of showers across central and northern Minnesota Thursday morning ahead of the next cool front. We can expect some midday showers in central and southern Minnesota potentially, depending on how much can hold together. Redevelopment of storms late in the afternoon and evening Thursday is likely in central, southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Some storms that redevelop late Thursday afternoon and evening in central and southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin could turn strong or severe. There’s a slight (level 2 of 5) severe risk for much of central, southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

Friday will still be warm. Highs will be back in the low 80s south with 70s north. These readings are a couple of degrees above normal yet.

We may see a couple of pop-up thunderstorms, especially north Friday afternoon and evening due to some lingering instability as dew points slowly drop through the day.

The weekend will be beautiful with comfortable dew points in the 50s and highs mostly in the 70s to near 80 degrees.

We may have a spotty storm chance early next week ahead of an increase in temperatures again. Overall temperatures look to be at or above normal into next week for the start of the Minnesota State Fair already next Thursday.

Thursday severe weather risk

Thursday will bring an uptick in thunderstorm activity across Minnesota as another disturbance moves southeast out of the Canadian Prairies and across the Upper Midwest.

Additional moisture will progress northward into Minnesota and set the stage for scattered showers and storms later in the day. The first round of showers will develop across northern and central Minnesota during the morning and midday hours. The more interesting part of the forecast comes Thursday afternoon and evening as a cold front pushes southeast across the state. Scattered thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of this boundary.

The primary concerns will be damaging wind gusts and large hail within the strongest storms. A brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out, but it does not appear to be the primary concern at this time. The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas from the southwest corner of the state through the Twin Cities within a slight risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather on Thursday. Overall, Thursday looks like a scattered storm day with a low-end severe weather threat.

Heat sticking around

Sven Sundgaard sent Mandy and I a message Wednesday morning with some juicy weather stats. If you’ve ever been curious, yes, this is what meteorologists actually do! After riding the highs into the 90s, we have not been there all August, at least as of this writing on the 19th. This is the time of the year that we start seeing steady but fairly fast changes in our typical weather. Of course, the average weather is not necessarily what we’ll end up seeing week to week. For now, were losing one degree off of the average high in the Twin Cities every four or five days!

That adds up real fast. By early September, that skyrockets to a degree every three days! The other day, we wrote about how tightly bunched the normal last 90°, 80°, 70°, and 60° days are together on the calendar. This is not just some geeky weather stuff (which we also love!). This is the weather playing out fast, in our real lives!

Despite all of that, we’ll be mostly above average, and on most days, for the foreseeable future. The 8-14 day temperature outlook is warm, as are the daily values. Lower 80s may not jump off the page, but they are a little warmer than you’d expect this time of the year.

High pressure has pushed out muggy air and will make for a nice Wednesday for most. Warmer and more muggy air moves back in Thursday ahead of the next front and spotty storm chance.

High pressure makes for a nice Wednesday ahead of next spotty storm chance

In the wake of Tuesday’s cool front, surface high pressure has taken control for most of Minnesota. It also led to the coolest morning in nearly two months for many. Tower, on Minnesota’s Iron Range dipped to 33-degrees. That’s their coldest reading since May 21 when they last slipped to 33. Hibbing and International Falls saw a low of 38-degrees. In the Twin Cities, we even reached 57-degrees, a temperature we hadn’t seen since June 25.

We’ll see quite a bit of sunshine with some afternoon fair-weather cumulus clouds. Afternoon highs will be in the 70s for most with a few low 80s in the Twin Cities and the Red River Valley. Dew points will drop into the 40s north and 50s south, making for a very comfortable air mass.

An isolated, pop-up shower or thunderstorm is possible in southwest Minnesota, closer to the stalled front with some lingering instability. Most will stay dry, however, today.

Temperatures and dew points will already increase again Thursday as south winds develop ahead of the next cool front, on the back side of Wednesday’s high pressure.

This will set the stage for the next chance of spotty showers and thunderstorms. Northern Minnesota will already see a few thunderstorms possible Wednesday night into early Thursday with the better chance south late Thursday into Thursday night.

There’s a marginal severe risk (level 1 of 5) for central and southern Minnesota Thursday. The main threat would be some isolated large hail or damaging wind gusts in one or two storms.

There could be some lingering instability Friday afternoon and evening, especially in northern Minnesota where a few pop-up thunderstorms are possible. There’s even a slight chance we see one or two in the Twin Cities and western Wisconsin.

On the other side of the cool front, temperatures and dew points will dip once again for the weekend. It’s looking like a pretty nice weekend with sunshine and highs mostly in the 70s to near 80 degrees.

Another chance of thunder develops by Monday into Tuesday of early next week.

Following some storms in the Driftless Area and a fairly mild day for most, dare we say cooler weather is heading to some of your homes and cabins the next two nights?

Okay, don’t get too excited by the prospect of sweater weather; only a few folks will be in the 30s, and the cold air will be here soon enough. After all, no matter where you’re reading this from in Minnesota, you’re losing at least 80 minutes of daylight in the month of August alone!

Places like Embarrass, Hibbing and International Falls are where you’ll want to look for morning temperatures in the 30s Wednesday and Friday mornings. They probably won’t be quite as cold on Thursday, given rain nearby.

The rest of us have great windows-open weather the next few nights — perhaps a chance to save on the power bill. For Wednesday, many will have a pretty cut-and-paste-type day. Almost all of the state will be dry, with highs ranging from the mid-70s to lower 80s.

The 80s are most likely around the Twin Cities’ urban heat island. There may be a few very spotty raindrops along the Canadian border well after dark, but the better chance is Thursday morning.

The front will not bring everyone rain, but there is a little more warmth and humidity through Thursday. Any rain should help — at least a little — with drought. Most spots might be happy with a quarter-inch of rain from this weak front, because the rain is not that widespread. Things may be slowed a little on the Thursday morning drive to work, and you may want to pack the umbrella.

Now to Friday, which is looking rather lovely! Sure, we’ll likely reach for the lower 80s across a greater part of Minnesota, but there is abundant sunshine along with the corresponding high UV index. Yet again, it will be time to use the sprinklers!

We’re going to zip ahead and detail the warmer weather heading into the start of the Minnesota State Fair. While most maps are pretty warm, middle to upper 80s for the start of the fair, the American GFS is going gangbusters.

Don’t buy the hype there! We’ll likely be above the weekly average, but the upper 90s would be tougher.

Minnesota has been really, really dry this summer. And not just a little below average, or a few missed thunderstorms here and there.

Since June 1, a large part of Minnesota has been running multiple inches below normal for precipitation, and the deficit covers an enormous portion of the state.

The latest data from the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, through Aug. 17, paints a pretty remarkable picture. Across much of northern, central and southern Minnesota, precipitation since the beginning of June is running roughly 2 to 5 inches below the 1991–2020 average, with some areas more than 6 inches below normal.

And when you look at the departure from normal map, the message is hard to miss: Lots of orange and red, the colors that dominate much of the Minnesota map.

There are pockets that have done better. Northwestern and portions of southern Minnesota has some areas that are near normal or even above normal, and there have certainly been thunderstorms that have dumped significant rain in localized areas. But that’s part of the problem.

Minnesota hasn't necessarily been completely rain-free. We've had rain, but we just haven’t had enough of it. And the rainfall we've received has often been uneven. One town gets a downpour while another nearby city barely gets wet. A few inches from a thunderstorm can make the lawn look better for a few days, but it doesn't necessarily erase a precipitation deficit that has been building for over three months.

This is what a dry summer looks like

We’ve gone through the bulk of meteorological summer and our rainfall ledger is sitting firmly in the red. While some areas have seen pockets of heavy rain, much of Minnesota has remained stubbornly dry since the start of June.

This matters because summer is when vegetation is using tremendous amounts of water. Crops are pulling moisture from the soil, and lawns, trees and gardens are doing the same. Warm summer temperatures also mean more evaporation from the soils.

When rainfall consistently comes up short, that deficit can build surprisingly quickly, as we’ve seen with the recent expansion in our drought monitor. Since mid-May, drought-stricken areas have expanded dramatically across Minnesota. According to the Aug. 11 drought monitor, more than 88 percent of the state was experiencing drought or abnormal dryness, with nearly 45 percent in severe drought.

A thunderstorm here or there won’t necessarily fix that. And we’re not talking about one small pocket of dryness, we are seeing a large-scale precipitation deficit stretching across much of the state.

With soils drying out, streams running lower, lawns browning, and gardens and pastures needing help, it has felt like a summer where rain has often been something to chase.

But we're not out of time

There's an important distinction between being dry now and staying dry through the fall. Meteorological summer ends on Aug. 31, but Minnesota’s opportunity to make up the precipitation shortfall doesn’t end with August.

We still have September and we still have October. And, depending on the year, there can be meaningful precipitation well into November before the ground finally freezes. That gives us time. A lot can change between now and the ground freezing.

A wetter fall could go a long way toward turning things around. Several rounds of soaking rain in September and October could erase a significant portion of the rainfall shortfall and help replenish moisture before winter arrives.

But for now, the numbers tell the story: Minnesota has had a very dry summer.

Southern Minnesota will see some lingering instability with a few showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. Temperatures and dew points will dip midweek slightly.

Lingering instability Tuesday with another chance of rain late week

Temperatures will be a bit cooler Tuesday thanks to more clouds around and some lingering instability as our recent cool front continues its slow advance south and southeast. Highs will be mostly in the 70s and just the low 70s north.

We have a few lingering showers and thunderstorms Tuesday morning across southern Minnesota and we could see a few additional, pop-up showers and thunderstorms midday into the afternoon and evening Tuesday. Northern Minnesota should remain dry.

There is a pretty low, just marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk for far southern Minnesota Tuesday with any storms that do develop.

High pressure moves in for Wednesday bringing back bright skies and slightly cooler temperatures and lower dew points. Highs Wednesday will be in the 70s for most of the state with dew points falling into the 50s and even 40s in northern Minnesota.

Temperatures and dew points will increase slightly again already Thursday and Friday ahead of a cool front as south winds kick back in across much of the region.

Temperatures will warm again ahead of the next cool front. Highs Thursday and Friday will be back in the low to mid-80s in southern Minnesota.

That front will touch off the next chance of at least some spotty showers and thunderstorms starting Wednesday night for northern Minnesota into Thursday and Thursday night farther south, but once again any significant moisture will be heavily localized.

Rainfall will once again be spotty and sparse and not very substantial. Most areas of the state will receive a half-inch or less in total rainfall through this week.

Behind the front we’ll see another slight dip in temperatures and dew points for what looks to be a pretty nice weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be mostly in the 70s to near 80 degrees.

Hey, hay fever! The ragweed pollen had the MPR newsroom talking Monday morning. Plus, I spent the weekend pulling ragweed and breathing in the pollen over in Minneapolis. Or, wait, was I accidentally pulling goldenrod, a great pollinator, mistakenly thinking it was the ‘evil' ragweed?

What’s the difference?

Goldenrod and ragweed are mainstays of August and September and are almost always spotted at the same time. Both are pollinators, both look similar to each other, but only ragweed is likely to make you sneeze. Experts say you can be allergic to goldenrod but it’s less common. Let’s defer to the plant experts over at Friends of the Mississippi River:

“Goldenrods are primarily insect-pollinated — their flowers attract bees and other pollinators. The pollen grains they produce are large and heavy, so they stay near the plant. They also produce less pollen because they don’t have to rely on wind to carry it to other far-off plants.

In comparison, ragweed (of which we have three species in Minnesota) is primarily wind—pollinated, meaning the plants rely on wind to disperse their pollen. As a result, they produce massive amounts of tiny pollen grains that the breeze then carries every which way and beyond. Also telling: many allergy sufferers here in Minnesota tend to find relief in the northern part of the state, where goldenrods are plentiful but ragweeds are uncommon.

Ragweed’s small flowers are not showy or brightly colored (those characteristics attract pollinators) when compared to goldenrods. The flowers are also produced both at the stem tips and at the upper leaf bases: the male flowers — located at the tips of the stem — produce copious pollen, while the female flowers are small, greenish and non-descript.”

So, unfortunately, I did end up pulling the goldenrod out of my own flower bed, thinking it was the dreaded ragweed that’s given me an itchy throat.

Little data to rely on

One of the first things I was told by Minnesota weather lovers was this: there’s basically little-to-no real-time pollen data for Minnesota, at least that’s publicly available. Sure, there are guesstimates by weather apps and blogs, plus we know generally the time of year that things like alder or ragweed pop up.

But, according to Minnesota’s Department of Health: “Note: Due to limitations in collection resources and impacts of the COVID pandemic, there is very limited pollen data collected for 2021 and pollen was not collected in 2022. As of 2022, no more pollen data is being collected in Minnesota.”

More pollen days ahead

The hundreds of farm stands across the North Star State are full of peppers, tomatoes, beets, and herbs. The growing season has, well, grown, by weeks and weeks, and just over the last 55 years.

Of course, that’s great for farmers, this sign of climate change at our latitude. That also corresponds to a lot more days for weed, grass, and tree pollen, given the early ending to frost and freezes, and the corresponding lack of fall freezes until later.

Ragweed gets a rinse

Rain is coming in Monday afternoon and evening. For the Twin Cities — which has a lot of both plants sprouting up now — that rain will come a little before midnight. A second wave arrives before dawn on Tuesday.

The rain will be helpful but clearly won’t totally solve the pollen issues. I plan on watering my lawn regardless, and perhaps that will help tame the pollen.

Clearly, the MPR weather team is not composed of medical doctors. Your best option may be talking with an allergy provider or your general practitioner. We’d be willing to bet that both are getting lots of calls now!

The latest update from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is raising the stakes for the upcoming winter.

El Niño has officially arrived in the tropical Pacific, and the event is strengthening quickly. In its latest El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion issued Aug 13, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there is now greater than a 90 percent chance that a very strong El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

More strikingly, NOAA is giving a 69 percent chance that the October through December period could reach a historically strong El Niño threshold.

That would make this much more than an ordinary El Niño event.

The Pacific is warming quickly

The ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific have continued to climb throughout the summer. In July, the Niño 3.4 region, the area most commonly used to classify El Niño and La Niña, averaged about 1.4 degrees Celsius above normal.

The strongest warmth is currently located farther east. Sea-surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern tropical Pacific have been more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal, while the region immediately off the coast of South America has been even warmer.

Our atmosphere is responding

One of the biggest developments in recent weeks is that the atmosphere is now showing signs of El Niño. Thunderstorms have increased across the central and eastern Pacific, while storm activity has decreased near the western Pacific.

This is important because El Niño isn't just about warmer ocean temperatures. The ocean and atmosphere need to work together for El Niño to become a major climate pattern.

Right now, that appears to be happening. The ocean and atmosphere are feeding off each other, which helps explain why NOAA's confidence in a very strong El Niño has risen so much.

What could this mean for Minnesota?

For Minnesotans, the obvious question is what all of this means for the upcoming winter.

Historically, El Niño has tilted the odds toward a milder and less snowy Minnesota winter. According to an updated analysis from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR), the 27 El Niño winters since 1950 have averaged 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit warmer statewide than non-El Niño winters. In the Twin Cities, seasonal snowfall has averaged about 24 percent less during El Niño winters.

But that doesn't mean winter weather disappears. Far from it. The DNR notes that even during some of the strongest El Niño events on record, Minnesota experienced major snowstorms and blizzards. The Halloween Blizzard of 1991 occurred during a very strong El Niño, while the record-strength 1982–83 event produced two significant blizzards.

The takeaway is that El Niño changes the odds, but it doesn't write the forecast for every storm. Minnesota can still see Arctic outbreaks, major snowstorms and stretches of classic winter weather, even during a potentially historic El Niño.

The bigger question is what happens next

At this point, forecasters aren't asking whether El Niño will develop. It already has.

The big question is how strong El Niño becomes and how it affects the atmosphere across the Northern Hemisphere. Other factors, such as the jet stream and other weather patterns, will also play a role in Minnesota’s winter weather.

Those features can either reinforce or counteract the typical El Niño pattern.

That is why an ENSO forecast is best viewed as a change in probabilities rather than a guarantee of a particular winter.

Still, the latest NOAA update is significant.

The Pacific has warmed rapidly, the atmosphere is now responding, and NOAA has very high confidence that this will become a very strong El Niño event.

For Minnesota, that raises the odds of a warmer-than-average winter and potentially less overall snowfall, but it certainly doesn't take snowstorms or Arctic air off the table.

And with the strongest part of the event still developing, the evolution of El Niño over the next few months will be something meteorologists will be watching very closely.

A cool front will touch off some spotty storms for northern Minnesota Monday afternoon and statewide Monday night. High pressure builds in for Wednesday and Thursday.

Spotty thunder chances ahead of a cool front late Monday into Tuesday

Southern Minnesota will have a pleasant day with sunshine and highs in the low 80s. Dew points should be mainly in the 50s still though they’ll increase late in the day into tonight, south, Northern Minnesota will see increased cloud cover and highs in the mid 70s.

As expected, most of us were left wanting for rainfall over the weekend. A lucky swath of east central and north central Minnesota did see 1 inch or more but most of us saw much less. In fact, the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport received just 0.02 inches. Cambridge however saw 1.78 inches.

We’ll start to see some showers and thunderstorms pop-up in northwest Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas midday ahead of an advancing cool front. Spotty storms will then spread across northern and far western Minnesota by late Monday afternoon and evening. What’s left will trickle south and southeast overnight Monday night. We’ll have some lingering instability touching off a few storms yet in southern Minnesota Tuesday as the front continues to slowly advance south.

There is a marginal severe risk (level 1 of 5) for much of central and southern Minnesota with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for southwest Minnesota Monday into early Tuesday. The main threats would be isolated large hail and a damaging wind gust or two in western Minnesota.

Don’t look for a lot of rainfall however for most. A few lucky, highly localized spots will get some good downpours but most will see under a quarter to half inch of rain.

Behind the front, dew points will start to drop Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure builds in. Dew points will drop from the 60s into the 50s with even some 40s in northern Minnesota.

We’ll have a pleasant midweek with sunshine and slightly cooler highs for Wednesday. Most of the state will see highs in the 70s Wednesday before 80s return Thursday.

Another cool front will slide through Thursday night into Friday touching off just another spotty chance of showers and thunderstorms. There will be another slight dip in temps and dew points for the upcoming weekend again.

Total rainfall between our two chances this week will not be sufficient for most. As is usually the case, if you get one of those good thunderstorms you can see some highly localized, higher amounts but most of us will see under a half inch of total weekly rainfall.

Pleasant, seasonable weather will continue into Monday, with comfortable temperatures and lower humidity. However, showers and thunderstorms will return Monday night as our next weather system moves into the region.

Highs should climb into the mid-70s north, and upper 70s to lower 80s south, making for a nice day before our next round of unsettled weather arrives.

Ahead of a cold front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Dakotas and far-western Minnesota late afternoon Monday into the early evening before spreading eastward later Monday night.

Some storms could become strong to severe, with large hail and powerful wind gusts being the primary concerns. The Storm Prediction Center has placed southwestern Minnesota in a slight risk for severe weather Monday evening.

The cold front will continue pushing south through Minnesota and Wisconsin on Tuesday, bringing another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could produce locally heavy rainfall, but current forecast guidance suggests the heaviest rain will likely remain focused across Iowa.

The weather pattern becomes much quieter beginning Wednesday as dry northwest flow takes over. Most of Wednesday through the weekend looks dry, with temperatures holding close to seasonal norms.

Seasonal temperatures, increased sunshine and drier air for our Sunday before the next round of showers and thunderstorms arrives Monday night into Tuesday.

Pleasant Sunday ahead

Sunday is shaping up to be one of the quieter days of the forecast. Behind our frontal passage, dew points will fall into the upper 50s as noticeably drier air moves in from the northwest.

Clouds should continue decreasing through the day, with afternoon highs reaching the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

Much of Monday should remain pleasant as temperatures climb into the 70s north and low 80s south. However, the next disturbance moving through will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday evening and overnight.

The first round is expected to be relatively scattered, with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible Monday night into Tuesday morning.

The latest Storm Prediction Center outlook shows thunderstorms possible across much of Minnesota Monday, with a slight risk for severe storms in southwestern Minnesota and a broader Marginal Risk extending from central Minnesota into the southern half of the state.

A second opportunity for showers and storms arrives Tuesday as a cold front advances southeastward, providing another focus for thunderstorms, particularly Tuesday evening and Tuesday night.

Once the Tuesday system moves through, the overall weather pattern becomes quieter. That pattern should bring generally fair and quiet conditions for the second half of the week. There is a low-end chance for rain Thursday afternoon or evening, but widespread precipitation is not currently expected.

Temperatures should remain remarkably consistent, with highs hovering in the 70s north and around 80 degrees in the south through the remainder of the workweek and into next weekend.

Scattered to widely numerous showers and thunderstorms develop as a weak cold front pushes eastward from the Dakotas. Behind the front, Sunday brings sunshine and more comfortable dew points.

Storms Saturday night, splendid Sunday ahead

Lightning and brief heavy rain will be the main concerns with Saturday night’s storms, while the overall severe weather threat remains low. A few stronger wind gusts are possible, mainly with storms developing across western Minnesota.

Once the cold front moves through overnight, winds will shift to the northwest and bring in noticeably drier air. Sunday is shaping up to be the pick of the weekend, with plenty of sunshine, comfortable humidity and temperatures close to the seasonal average for mid-August.

Northwest winds could occasionally gust to around 20 mph, but otherwise, Sunday should offer a welcome break from the unsettled weather.

The quiet weather won't last long. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday into Tuesday as another upper-level disturbance and cold front approach the region.

The better opportunity for storms arrives late Monday into Tuesday as a stronger cold front moves southwestward. Some severe weather potential may develop with this system, although the latest forecast models suggest the greater threat could be farther south, especially across Iowa, rather than southern Minnesota.

Temperatures cool slightly into the 70s for the middle of the work week.

Showers and thunderstorms make an appearance Saturday before quieter and more comfortable weather settles in for Sunday and Monday.

Showers and storms Saturday, more sunshine Sunday

Showers and thunderstorms will take center stage Saturday, with sticky dew points in tow.

Clouds will be tough to shake, with low stratus likely lingering through much of the day. As our next disturbance approaches from the west and a cold front moves through Saturday night, scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected, with additional activity possible Saturday afternoon and evening.

Dew points in the 60s and 70s will be replaced behind the front, with readings dropping into the 50s and low 60s by Sunday.

With how dry the landscape is across much of Minnesota, any rain will be welcome. Some areas of northern Minnesota could pick up a healthy half inch to an inch of rain Saturday.

Once the front moves through Saturday evening, much drier air will arrive from the northwest. Sunday should bring a noticeable improvement, with decreasing clouds, comfortable humidity and seasonal temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

Monday looks pleasant as well, but another weather system will arrive Tuesday, bringing another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms.

One thing worth watching is the potential for several inches of rain in some areas Tuesday and Tuesday night. While that could certainly be beneficial, the latest weather models suggests the heaviest rainfall may once again favor areas that don't need it as badly, while north-central and northern Minnesota could miss out on the bulk of the rain.

Central and northern Minnesota have the best chances for several rounds of showers Saturday. Sunday looks dry. A cooldown is expected into the middle of next week.

Rain chances Saturday

Far southern Minnesota woke to some sprinkles Friday morning, but otherwise rain is limited. We could have a few more isolated rumbles of thunder. It’s about time to unfurl the garden hose. Soil moisture across much of Minnesota is really low.

Friday evening’s weather will be beautiful for most of Minnesota. The mosquito count is pretty low, air quality remains excellent and water temperatures are fairly mild at 69 to 75 degrees in most Minnesota lakes.

Be really careful on Lake Superior. Outside of the breakwaters, there is some serious chop and even a beach hazard statement for strong rip currents.

Saturday’s long been the main event for rain chances this week. I think central and northern have by far the best chances of a solid round or three of showers on Saturday, from midday through evening.

It will be colder as a consequence in northern Minnesota. The map below from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System shows that trend.

Friday afternoon data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts does show several tenths of an inch of rain all across Minnesota on Saturday. If we can muster rain around the Cities, it’s most likely in the morning.

We do expect some clearing for the southern half of Minnesota Saturday, hence the much-warmer conditions in southern cities. Sunday dries out across most of the region, and the heat dome begins to show some signs of cracking.

We’ve really been spared from the latest heat wave. The weather was much, much hotter farther south of Iowa.

Monday night through next Wednesday morning is my big hope for heavier rains. I say that because I’ve been burned by wishcasting for drought-clearing rains before. This far out, big synoptic systems are never a guarantee but the weather maps have long held rain.

The front is likely to arrive in northwestern Minnesota on Monday evening, stalling out in the middle of Minnesota overnight into Tuesday morning. Then it blows through on Wednesday. If you’re wanting rain, this would be an ideal setup for you.

That also sets up a secondary cooldown into the middle of next week. Have a great weekend!

We’ll see a pleasant enough Friday ahead of increasing clouds and the next chance of showers late Friday into Saturday. Sunshine and drier air moves in for Sunday and Monday.

Some showers Friday night into Saturday but not likely significant

We’ll have a pleasant enough Friday with increasing clouds ahead of the next disturbance. Highs will be in the low to mid-80s across east central Minnesota with 70s north and in southwestern Minnesota, where clouds will thicken up earlier.

Far southern Minnesota will already see a few showers this morning and midday. We’ll gradually see those attempt to fill in more and make their way north and northeast by evening into the overnight Friday night.

Those showers will become more widely scattered or even just spotty and isolated during the day Friday.

If you’re looking for a good soaking, you’re likely to be disappointed. Only far southeastern Minnesota, where the rain is probably needed the least, stands to see an inch or more of rain. Most will see under one-quarter inch of any rainfall.

Highs Saturday will be near 80 degrees and it will be quite humid with dew points in the 60s and 70s with quite a bit of lingering cloud cover. We should see some peeks of sun at least though.

Sunday and Monday will be much more pleasant with sunshine returning and a drop in dew points and even a subtle drop in temperatures. Dew points will drop from the very humid low 70s Saturday into the 50s by late Sunday behind the cool front:

Highs both Sunday and Monday will be near 88-degrees in the Twin Cities with 70s for most of Minnesota.

Another chance of spotty showers and thunderstorms develops Tuesday. Otherwise, temperatures look to be near normal with highs in the low 80s south to mid 70s north into next week.

The big local weather story today is the continued expansion of the drought throughout Minnesota. The Twin Cities now own their worst drought in about three years. You've got to go several feet underground to hit much in the way of any moisture. So, when's the rain getting here?

After all, far southern Minnesota has been getting clipped by day after day of storms, including a great soaking rain for Austin, Rochester, over to La Crescent. Plus, it looked stormy across much of southern Minnesota earlier Thursday - as expected. But, also as anticipated, the rain stayed just north of the Cities. Thursday does begin a minor cooling trend that lasts quite a while, so we may not lose as much water to evapotranspiration (corn sweat!) in the upcoming days. Friday has a minor chance of rain, but mostly along the northwestern end of the state, and mostly by evening.

Saturday is our next best chance for a 'talker' rain. That means, as you're making coffee or tea at the office, you tell the random coworker 'hey, did you hear we might get some rain on Saturday?' What makes this unique is that showers are mostly light - though there is some more 'precipitable water' to tap into for the Boundary Waters. Meanwhile, just to our south, central Iowa is going to get hammered yet again by big rains. They're the bullseye for the USA in the coming days! For us on Saturday, we may get a few tenths of an inch, but it won't affect everyone and this is no drought buster.

The weekend brings cooler weather. For Saturday in particular, we could have highs only in the upper 70s all across the state, especially if the clouds don't budge until the later afternoon. Sunday looks like a really good day to catch up on the chores and yardwork (looking at you, Ben, get the weeding done!). Temperatures are more pleasant for spending an extended time outdoors, while the UV index is moderate-to-high. The same goes for Monday until Monday night.

Tuesday brings what I think is the best shot for a real soaking rain throughout the next week. We're hoping that Iowa shares the wealth of rains and that extends north. Ironically, the corn sweat from all the recent Iowa rains could actually be driven north and help fuel some rain in that Tuesday time frame!

The average temperature trend continues well into next week, even though a new heat wave is bubbling up across Texas and the Deep South. Given that we've been so warm lately, it might feel like we're 'average' but actually, not so much. We are typically in the lower 80s this time of year. There's almost certainly some more 90s to be dug up before the year is over.

Over the last 30 years in the Twin Cities, the normal last 90 degree day was August 29. Last year we had the 90s until early October! Just because I was digging through the archives, the normal last 80 is October 3rd, the normal last 70 is October 23rd, the normal last 60 is November 7th, and the normal last 50 is November 27th. In Minnesota, things happen fast. In less than a two month time-frame, we go through some tremendous temperature changes.

Minnesota's drought continued to intensify this week. Nearly half the state is now experiencing severe drought as conditions worsen.

A stubborn summer drought

Minnesota’s drought is showing very few signs of letting up. Periods of intense heat this summer combined with a lack of widespread soaking rainfall have steadily depleted soil moisture and stressed vegetation across the state.

The U.S. Drought Monitor report released this week continues to show a broad swath of drought across Minnesota, with the most concerning conditions concentrated across central and northern portions of the state.

The percentage of Minnesota experiencing at least moderate drought jumped from just under 70 percent last week to 75 percent this week. On the map, you can see the expansion of moderate drought in southwestern portions of the state as well as across much of northern Minnesota.

Areas under severe drought widened significantly. Last week's map had 34 percent of Minnesota in severe drought or worse. This week, that number surged to more than 44 percent.

That means nearly 45 percent of the state is now experiencing severe drought or worse — a sharp escalation from just one week ago.

For Minnesota's drought to substantially improve, the state needs more than isolated thunderstorms. A meaningful recovery would require repeated, widespread rainfall events capable of replenishing topsoil moisture and gradually restoring deeper groundwater reserves.

Our latest disturbance is creating some scattered showers across southern Minnesota Thursday. Friday will be dry for most ahead of the next chance of rain Friday night into Saturday.

Another chance at rain Friday night followed by a subtle cooldown

Scattered showers will wind down across central and southern Minnesota Thursday morning, but there will be some lingering instability. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon in central and southern Minnesota.

Highs Thursday will be back in the low 80s for east-central Minnesota with 70s in southern Minnesota due to lingering clouds. Highs will be in the 70s in northern Minnesota where cooler, drier air remains. We should see some afternoon sun.

Friday will be pleasant for much of the day across central and northern Minnesota with highs back in the 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase in southern Minnesota in the afternoon.

The cloud cover is moving in ahead of the next upper-level disturbance which will attempt to create scattered showers across much of Minnesota late Friday into Friday night and Saturday. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like most will get an adequate soaking.

A few lucky spots in southeastern Minnesota may see up to 1 inch or more of rain, but in between we’ll see significantly less. Most areas will see one-quarter inch or less of rainfall.

Behind it, Sunday and Monday bring back sunshine and ever so slightly cooler temperatures and a dip in dew points again to more comfortable levels.

A space view of the total solar eclipse

If you were in Minnesota Wednesday, you didn’t get a good view of the total solar eclipse that went from Greenland through Spain. (Grand Portage, at the tip of Minnesota’s Arrowhead, did see 6 percent of the sun obscured by the moon early Wednesday afternoon.)

But we can view it from space!

The image above is a visible satellite loop from about noon to 2:20 p.m. Wednesday local time as the moon blocked the sun, fully from Greenland, across the northeast Atlantic and across Spain, creating a big, moving shadow

The next total solar eclipse on earth is Aug. 2, 2027, when totality will sweep across North Africa through Egypt and the Middle East.

Minnesota will see a slight cooling trend starting Thursday. Friday is expected to be largely dry and pleasant. Saturday may bring the next best chance of widespread rain across Minnesota.

Clouds but little rain

If you’ve liked Monday or Tuesday, you’re probably enjoying Wednesday: clouds south, storms farther south, hot weather and not much rain.

There have been a few storms but nothing widespread. Most of it has tracked over Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana, the derecho bull’s-eye.

More of these powerful thunderstorm complexes are moving through the broader region but have largely skipped over Minnesota. Unfortunately, the clouds that those storms bring Wednesday night will likely prevent great viewing of the Perseid meteor shower.

Starting Thursday, we’ll slowly dip into a minor cooling trend. Instead of racing to the lower 90s across the Twin Cities urban heat island, and the middle-to-upper 80s elsewhere, we’ll be about 5 degrees cooler across the board.

Parts of that cooldown come from the early clouds but we could also have some morning showers and thunderstorms, south of a line from Marshall in southwestern Minnesota to the Twin Cities.

On Friday, I’m expecting largely dry weather and a pleasant August forecast as fronts move through.

Saturday is still the best chance of widespread rain across Minnesota in the next several days. The afternoon data is not as aggressive with the rain coverage, but there could be some downpours and highs may only be in the 70s for much of the state.

We should have some isolated downpours after the weekend and temps remain more level, which should be better news for farmers and gardeners worn down by erratic shifts in the weather pattern.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center sees temperature probabilities leaning above normal through August. We could dry out again in the first parts of September.

In the Twin Cities, we continue to be on the edge of some very humid air south and dry air north. That will shift a bit farther south Thursday. There are some chances at rain in the coming days.

Warm and muggy with some rain chances

We’ll have another very warm and muggy day Wednesday as the Twin Cities and much of central Minnesota continue to be sandwiched between some very humid air south and drier air north. Look for partly cloudy skies and highs in the mid-80s to mid-70s.

Western and southern Minnesota will see scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Storms will develop in eastern South Dakota and dive east and southeast late into the overnight and early Thursday.

The Twin Cities will likely be on the northern edge of this rainfall.

There’s a marginal severe risk (level 1 of 5) for southwestern Minnesota with a better chance of severe storms producing damaging wind gusts and large hail in eastern South Dakota and western Iowa.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler Thursday when northeast winds kick in as high pressure to our north slides east. Highs will be mostly in the 70s with the Twin Cities still likely seeing low 80s. We’ll also see dew points dip from the 60s into the 50s.

Friday looks pleasant with most seeing highs in the 70s and partly cloudy skies along with comfortable dew points.

Clouds will start to increase later in the day Friday ahead of another upper-level disturbance moving up and around a heat dome centered well to our south. That system will bring some scattered showers and thunder late Friday into Saturday across most of Minnesota.

Unfortunately, forecast models are backing off total rainfall amounts Friday into Saturday. There could be some lucky pockets of 1 inch or more of rain in far southern and north-central Minnesota but most will see less, especially across central Minnesota.

That system should clear out of here for Sunday and Monday with sunshine and pleasant weather returning.

Thankfully the damaging winds from an Upper Midwest derecho avoided our region Tuesday morning, before plowing into Illinois and Indiana with high-end severe damage. That said, most of the rain also avoided those, unless you were south of Interstate 90, which is only a fraction of Minnesota’s vast acreage.

We’re still really toasty through Tuesday evening, because of the high dew points. The heat will stick around (maybe even a little hotter) on Wednesday, as many approach 90 degrees. We will have ample sunshine and mostly dry weather. Clouds race in at the worst time for stargazers; Wednesday night is likely to have a blanket of clouds that could largely obstruct our viewing of the Perseid meteor showers. That said, rain remains elusive. The MCS - mesoscale convective system - that produces the rain is staying to our south according to the next weather data.

I do foresee a slightly cooler weekend. Rain is with us (at least on several weather maps) Saturday and it should be across much of the state.

Rain could be a little heavier in the southeastern foot of Minnesota, but any steady rain - coupled with cooler temperatures - should help firefighters in the Boundary Waters get towards further containment. Temperatures will respond, too, bringing us cooler weather both days this weekend. Some weather tools are cooler about two weeks out, so that’s also something to watch for.

We meteorologists spend a lot of time talking about heat.

We talk about high temperatures, heat indices, heat advisories and excessive heat warnings. We watch the upper-air pattern, track sprawling ridges of high pressure and monitor how long the heat may stick around. But every once in a while, the numbers tell a much bigger story.

July 2026 was one of those months.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information, July was the warmest month ever recorded across the contiguous United States, with an average temperature of 76.9 degrees.

NOAA’s records date back to 1895, giving us more than 130 years of data to put this July into perspective.

And this wasn't simply a case of one part of the country experiencing an extreme heat wave. The warmth was remarkably widespread.

A record that stretches across the country

When we hear that a month was the “hottest on record,” it's easy to imagine a handful of locations experiencing extraordinary temperatures. That isn't what happened in July.

Every state in the contiguous United States was at least 1 degree warmer than its 20th century average.

Thirteen states ranked among their five warmest July’s on record, while Wyoming experienced its warmest July, and warmest month of any kind, on record, coming in 5.1 degrees above average.

The greatest departures from normal were concentrated across portions of the interior West, Southwest, Rockies and northern Plains, with significant heat also affecting parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast. That geographic breadth is important.

Weather is naturally variable. One region can be exceptionally hot while another is unusually cool. That's part of the atmosphere's normal behavior.

But when the temperature signal is overwhelmingly warm across an entire continent-sized area, we're looking at something much larger than an isolated heat wave.

Hotter nights tell the real story

There's another number from July that deserves considerably more attention.

The average daytime high temperature across the Lower 48 was 89.5 degrees, 2.9 degrees above average. That ranked as the sixth-warmest month on record for average high temperatures.

But the average overnight low was 64.2 degrees, which was 3.7 degrees above average.

That was the warmest average nighttime temperature for any month in the record.

Why does it matter? Because extreme heat isn't just about how hot it gets during the afternoon. It's also about whether our bodies, homes and infrastructure get a chance to cool down at night.

When nighttime temperatures remain unusually warm, the recovery from the heat becomes much more difficult.

From a forecasting perspective, this is one of the most concerning aspects of prolonged heat.

The overnight hours are when temperatures are normally at their lowest. When even those temperatures are running far above normal, the entire 24-hour temperature cycle shifts upward. That's exactly what happened in July.

This wasn't the Dust Bowl

One of the most interesting comparisons is to July 1936, during the infamous Dust Bowl era.

For decades, July 1936 stood as one of the benchmarks for extreme summer heat in the United States. Now, July 2026 has moved ahead of it. NOAA found that July 2026 averaged approximately one-tenth to two-tenths of a degree warmer than July 1936 and July 2012.

There is an important meteorological distinction.

The 1930s heat was heavily concentrated in parts of the central United States and occurred within a very different environmental and climatic backdrop. The extreme drought of the Dust Bowl played an important role in amplifying the heat across the Great Plains and Midwest.

July 2026 was different because the heat was more geographically widespread, extending across essentially the entire contiguous United States.

What should we take away from this?

For me, the biggest takeaway isn't simply that July 2026 broke a temperature record. It's how the record was broken.

The Lower 48 didn't get there because one city experienced an unprecedented afternoon high. It happened because warmth was widespread, persistent and particularly pronounced overnight. That distinction matters.

Weather records will always be broken. That's part of the nature of a variable atmosphere.

But as meteorologists, we're increasingly interested not just in whether a record falls, but in which records are falling, how often they're falling and what part of the temperature distribution is changing most rapidly. July 2026 provides a striking example.

The hottest month in the 132-year contiguous U.S. temperature record wasn't simply a month of scorching afternoons. It was a month when the country, on average, had an unusually hard time cooling down.

And sometimes, the overnight temperature tells us more about the heat than the afternoon high ever could.

Morning showers and thunderstorms will dissipate in southern Minnesota. Clouds will decrease and we’ll have a warm and muggy couple of days. Cooler, drier air moves in late week.

Storms for some, otherwise warm and muggy for a couple days

Southern Minnesota saw a bit of rainfall early Tuesday as thunderstorms raced across South Dakota into Nebraska and Iowa, grazing the southernmost counties of Minnesota.

Rainfall was not terribly impressive with most locations coming in at just a few hundredths of an inch. Albert Lea had a slightly higher value of 0.34 of an inch.

It will be a warm and muggy Tuesday afternoon. Highs will again be in the low to mid-80s across central and southern Minnesota with upper 70s north. Dew points will be in the 60s to near 70 degrees in the southern half of the state.

There could be some additional rain and thunder chances over the next 48 hours for some. Trying to time out and place activity is a low-confidence pursuit. But with muggy air in place, some early morning and late day thunder is possible into Thursday.

The best chances appear to be some isolated, pop-up thunder Wednesday afternoon and perhaps some early morning activity grazing southern Minnesota again Thursday.

We’re watching a potentially widespread chance of showers and thunder Friday night into Saturday that could deliver rainfall to much of Minnesota, if we’re lucky.

We’ll also have cooler air moving in late week into the weekend and early next week. Most will see highs in the 70s with a drop in dew points also.

If you’re like me, you got your first taste of the upcoming Perseid meteor shower on Google. If you search the fireball show on the search engine, you get a mock-up set of shooting stars.

The annual meteor shower is thought by many space enthusiasts to be the best of the year.

Everyone with a passing interest in space or science should experience meteor showers. There’s even a Minnesota angle this week: Astronaut and Twin Cities native Anil Menon is on the International Space Station.

Hoping to see the Perseids Wednesday into Thursday? Here’s what to know.

Origin story

“When comets come around the Sun, the dust they emit gradually spreads into a dusty trail around their orbits,” according to NASA. “Every year the Earth passes through these debris trails, which allows the bits to collide with our atmosphere where they disintegrate to create fiery and colorful streaks in the sky.”

The Perseids originate from comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle. Comet Swift-Tuttle is humongous — 16 miles across for the center of the blend of ice and rock, or “more than twice the size of the object hypothesized to have led the demise of the dinosaurs,” NASA says.

Swift-Tuttle takes 133 years to go around the Sun but we see impacts each August when Earth passes through the comet’s debris field.

“With swift and bright meteors, Perseids frequently leave long ‘wakes’ of light and color behind them as they streak through Earth's atmosphere,” according to NASA. “The Perseids are one of the most plentiful showers with about 50 to 100 meteors seen per hour.”

Go dark

Theoretically, you’ll be able to see the meteor shower from anywhere, but optimally your physical location should be in a really dark area away from city lights and tree canopies.

While the Perseids meteor shower radiates from the northeastern sky, appearing to emerge from the constellation Perseus, you can really be looking anywhere in the sky. It might be best to just lie flat on your back, on a blanket, and just look up!

Cloud-wise, it does look to be clearer in northern Minnesota. Hopefully these are just wispy cirrus clouds!

Stay up late, and early

There are some shooting stars present as I type this but the peak is Wednesday night after 11 p.m. into early Thursday morning. Just plan to stay up Wednesday night. You won’t regret it! And you do not need a telescope.

Picture this?

Some modern smartphones may be able to capture the Perseids but don’t be too concerned on getting the right shot in real time. That’s for the pros, and even they’d need to be lucky.

You could set up a really long exposure shot on your DSLR and that works really well! Otherwise, just find that dark area Wednesday night.

Temperatures will be in the low to mid-80s for the first half of the week before cooler air moves in. We’ll be looking at just isolated to spotty thunderstorm chances.

Seasonable temps, isolated thunderstorm chances

Some areas saw some needed rainfall over the weekend. Unfortunately, as has often been the case this summer, the heaviest rain keeps falling in areas that needed it least. In particular, Vernon Center, in south-central Minnesota, saw 2.95 inches of rain over the weekend.

Monday will be a pretty seasonable mid-August day. Look for partly cloudy skies and highs in the low to mid-80s across central Minnesota with slightly cooler temperatures north and south.

Muggier air will be depart just south, allowing for dew points to drop temporarily into the 50s. Look for stickier dew points — back in the 60s — to return Tuesday.

As that moisture moves back northward Monday night, it will potentially touch off at least a few thunderstorms in southern Minnesota into early Tuesday. Activity is likely to develop in eastern South Dakota late Monday night and fill in and track east into early Tuesday morning.

There’s a slight (level 2 of 5) severe risk for southwestern Minnesota and a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for much of the rest of southern Minnesota, south of the Twin Cities Monday night into early Tuesday. The main threats would come from damaging wind gusts and large hail.

It’ll be more of the same for Tuesday with highs again back in the 70s and 80s with some patchy clouds after morning thunder in the south.

After Tuesday, any rain or thunder chances are pretty isolated. We will see some cool air move in late week, however. Highs will be in the 70s for most with some cool overnights Thursday into the weekend. Another system could deliver rainfall Friday night into early Saturday.

The next meaningful chance for rain arrives late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, followed by several days of mainly dry weather. Temperatures will remain close to seasonal averages through Wednesday before cooler Canadian air arrives later in the week.

One more chance for rain

The forecast remains largely unchanged as we head into the new week. After a somewhat active stretch of weather, Minnesota is expected to see a quieter pattern take shape by the middle of the week.

Monday is shaping up to be a pleasant August day. As high pressure builds south from Canada, humidity levels will gradually decrease, leading to comfortable conditions across much of the state. Afternoon temperatures will reach the low to middle 80s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

The next opportunity for rain arrives late Monday night and continues into early Tuesday morning. A disturbance moving out of the northern Plains will interact with a warm front across southern Minnesota, leading to the development of showers and thunderstorms. The highest confidence for rainfall remains across southwestern and southern Minnesota.

A few storms could become strong, and the Storm Prediction Center has placed southern Minnesota under a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather.

After Tuesday morning, a much quieter weather pattern settles into the Upper Midwest. While a few weak disturbances could bring isolated shower chances later in the week, most locations will remain dry and any rainfall amounts appear light.

By Thursday, cooler Canadian air will begin filtering into the region, bringing temperatures below average for mid-August. Highs will settle into the 70s through the end of the week and into next weekend, with overnight lows dropping into the 50s, providing a refreshing taste of late-summer weather.