A weak cool front will touch off some spotty midday thunder Friday. Muggy air will move south and then march back north over the weekend. Monday may yield better rain chances.

Meandering frontal boundary to touch off spotty storms

The muggy air is back Friday morning but it won’t last long. We’ll see morning and midday dew points in the 60s to even near 70 degrees, but a weak cool front will sweep dry air back in by evening into the start of Saturday.

That front will be the focus for some spotty to scattered thunderstorms Friday. It will be a broken line so not everyone will get needed rainfall. Eastern Minnesota can expect some of those showers and storms midday. Western Wisconsin will see activity in the afternoon and evening.

There is a marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk for eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin for Friday into Friday evening. The main threats would be an isolated damaging wind threat or isolated large hail.

Highs Friday will be back in the 80s south to 70s north again, pretty seasonable for this seventh day of August.

We’ll be on the edge of that muggy air on and off this weekend which means an isolated thundershower is possible at anytime, anywhere in the state but most of us will stay dry most of the time with seasonable temperatures in the 80s and 70s.

A better chance of perhaps more scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Sunday night into Monday. That could yield more significant precipitation for portions of mainly southern Minnesota.

Temperatures will largely be close to normal into next week, which translates to low to mid-80s in central and southern Minnesota with 70s north.

Where is all the rain for your garden, farm, or fishing pond? I was just crossing the Mississippi a few times on Wednesday, heading back and forth to the airport, and it was apparent how low the Big River was. So, are there any sturdy rain chances like we just had last Thursday night into Friday? Simply, not really. But we’re going to dive in deeper in this Updraft and look at potential tropical help for drought. Mandy has your weekly drought update right here.

First, there’s a little better sign of rain on Friday. That said, it’s largely in the Arrowhead, with some late morning thunderstorms. Some of the newer data does suggest a couple of showers in the Twin Cities to Red Wing and down to La Crosse; that said, this is kind of ‘wishcasting’ where we grasp at straws for smaller rain chances. If that rain in far eastern Minnesota does actually linger, it would be around 3:00-5:00 p.m. Friday.

If you don’t get rain on Friday, the next best chance is all the way from very late Sunday into early Monday. The best chances here are confined to southern Minnesota.

Given the dry pattern, I was thinking back on rain events that were tropical in origin. As you might expect, we’re not getting full-fledged hurricanes steamrolling into our backyards. What Minnesota does get, at least on occasion, are remnant lows. The last was the ‘leftovers’ of Cristobal back in 2020. Like many things in the weather world (see yesterday’s Updraft), we probably need a new name for remnant lows. You might surmise that these are no big deal but they can cause bad flooding if the jet stream doesn’t kick these far east. Minnesota is about as far north and west as you’ll get these storms. That’s because the jet stream punches them east at a certain point - usually before they make it here.

Here’s the deal. The National Hurricane Center just released its amended outlook for this hurricane season in the Atlantic. The trend was already low, given the Super El Niño that’s still strengthening. Here’s what they have to say: “NOAA’s updated outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season indicates that a below-normal season is most likely (75 percent chance). The outlook also includes only a 20 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a nominal 5 percent chance of an above-normal season. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to produce (with 70 percent probability for each range) 7-13 named storms (which includes the two named storms recorded thus far), of which 2-6 are expected to become hurricanes, and up to two of those are forecast to become major hurricanes. These ranges are centered below the 1991-2020 period averages of about 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.”

Overall, the chances of tropical help to our drought remains low!

The latest drought monitor shows some encouraging improvement across Minnesota following some recent rainfall. However, the areas experiencing the most significant drought saw little relief.

Our recent and honestly decent rainfall that fell in the past week helped chip away at this week’s latest drought monitor. The state is just under 90 percent for abnormally dry or in drought, which is down from over 95 percent last week. Also notable is the moderate drought fell from 76 percent to just under 70 percent.

The biggest concern remains the severe drought. 34.3 percent of the state remains in severe drought, only a slight improvement from the 35 percent last week. Even though some of the lighter drought classifications improved, the hardest-hit areas continue to struggle.

Rainfall over the past week was abundant across southern Minnesota, where many communities picked up 3 to 4 inches of rain. Meanwhile, parts of northern Minnesota that need the moisture most received less than 1 to 2 inches.

The latest map shows the most persistent drought centered across northern and northeastern Minnesota, where many locations have missed out on the heavier rainfall events that have benefited other parts of the state. Moderate drought also continues across much of central and Minnesota, while southern Minnesota is a mix of abnormally dry conditions and moderate drought.

Looking at the longer-term picture highlights just how quickly conditions have deteriorated this summer. Three months ago, nearly 70 percent of Minnesota had no drought, and only 0.4 percent of the state was in severe drought. Today, almost 90 percent of the state is in some drought classification, while more than one-third of the state is experiencing severe drought.

Additional widespread rainfall will be needed in the coming weeks to produce meaningful improvements in the drought's core. Bottom line is recent rain brought modest improvement around the edges of the drought, but the severe drought gripping northern Minnesota remains largely unchanged.

Thursday will still be a nice, mostly comfortable day. Dew points and temperatures will be increasing some the next couple days which will lead to at least isolated thunder.

Becoming warmer and more muggy with isolated thunder

We have another nice day on the way Thursday. Look for lots of sun, though some high clouds will drift in. Afternoon highs will be a bit warmer with more low and middle 80s popping up on the Minnesota temperature map.

There will be some isolated thunder this afternoon in northern Minnesota. This is ahead of a weak front that will be pushing muggy air back in ahead of it. Dew points will increase into the 60s to near 70 overnight Thursday into Friday. That front will touch off spotty storms along I-35 in eastern and southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin Friday. There is even a marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk for eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

Behind the front, dew points will dip back into the 50s but it won’t last long. That front will be moving back and forth across the region over the weekend into early next week. Having that muggy air nearby and some upper level disturbances means the chance of some isolated or spotty thunder is possible in at least some part of the state on any given day.

Highs this weekend will be seasonable, ranging from the low to mid-80s south to the 70s north.

A better chance of more scattered showers and storms develops for Sunday night into Monday as a slightly more vigorous disturbance moves through the region. That system looks likely to affect mainly central and southern Minnesota.

Rainfall totals will not be terribly impressive, but will be highest in southern and southeast Minnesota into Monday.

There was some talk about the power bill on MPR’s internal office messaging system and at the break room coffee machines.

“Did you see your bill from last month! My goodness!”

While that’s a paraphrase, we can certainly imagine the same conversation happening all around Minnesota. After all, the U.S. just had its warmest month in history, besting one from summer 2012. And the 10-day stretch from July 11-20 of this year was our second-hottest stretch during that time on record. The winner for most hot records in Minnesota goes back to 1936.

A timely report was just released by Climate Central, which is a nonpartisan and nonprofit group that we’ve worked with for years. They looked at a bunch of America’s biggest cities but, we’ll only focus on Minnesota. From Duluth to the Twin Cities, Rochester and Mankato, all four hubs saw a jump in cooling (air conditioning) demand since 1970. They make use of a weather metric called cooling degree days or CDD. I bet pretty much every farmer reading this knows exactly what we’re talking about with CDD, but frankly, it’s not something meteorologists use every day, so I have to look it back up myself!

The stat gets a little confusing, we know. A really hot day would have many cooling degree days. Maybe we need a better name, but that’s above our pay grade! Regardless, the need for air conditioning is certainly climbing. Some cabins and folks along the North Shore may not even have air conditioning, even though that might change given the plague of 100-degree readings across Northern Minnesota last month. You can find the four big city’s individual impact below. On a national scale, the United States Energy Information Administration recently released its 2026 annual outlook. From now until 2100, that administration expects a greater than 43 percent additional demand for cooling.

Cooler and drier air lingers along with lots of sunshine. Thursday will still be comfortable, but warmer. Dew points and temperatures increase along with chances of spotty thunder Friday.

Slightly cooler-than-normal Wednesday before temperatures, dew points increase

It was a cool start Wednesday with morning lows in the 40s and 50s for much of the state. Brimson dipped to 36 degrees, 38 in Hibbing and 39 in International Falls, Embarrass and Cook. The Twin Cities saw a low of 61 degrees — only the sixth such time since July 1 that we’ve been below 66 degrees, the peek average low temp in mid to late July. The normal value is 19.

We’ll have plenty of sunshine Wednesday with a few more fair-weather cumulus clouds developing northeast Minnesota. Temperatures will actually be a bit cooler than normal, mostly in the 70s with a sprinkling of a couple of low 80s.

Look for one more coolish overnight Wednesday, though temperatures will be slightly warmer, mostly in the 50s to low 60s.

Thursday will continue to be bright for most and a few degrees warmer. Low to mid-80s will become more widespread, especially across central Minnesota Thursday afternoon.

Dew points remain very comfortable, in the 50s and 40s Wednesday through Thursday, but will increase again Friday ahead of a weak cool front. We’ll see dew points in the 60s to even low 70s for some by Friday midday.

That front will meander back and forth in the region over the weekend into early next week. The surface boundary between muggy and drier air, combined with a few, fast-moving upper level disturbances will produce some occasional isolated to spotty thunderstorm chances.

The first will be for northern Minnesota Wednesday night into Thursday, then a statewide chance late Friday and Saturday followed by a slightly better chance of more widespread activity, potentially, early Monday.

Total rainfall will leave most thirsty as any activity over the next several days will be very hit and miss. Remember: We need 1 inch of rain per week just to keep up with normal so this map means deficits will continue to grow. Most areas of the state that are in drought are behind by 3 to 9 inches, year-to-date.

The epicenter for severe weather this summer, with six severe thunderstorm warnings, two tornado warnings, hail, downed trees … it might surprise you! It’s not Rochester, not the Minnesota River Valley or somewhere at a more southern latitude. We’re actually looking into northern Minnesota, on Red Lake Nation region plus great Beltrami County. As the Emergency Manager for Beltrami County wrote on my Facebook page earlier Tuesday: “Lest forget the bullseye of the 2025 Derecho last year... we will gladly trade severe weather for rain if there are any takers out there!”

On Monday evening, right before dusk, a roughly 20-mile-long nearly continuous path of tree damage moved through Beltrami County. Indian roads 40 and 18 were among the spots with highest impacts, along with Redby and Kelliher. In Kelliher, several trees fell on homes an cars, though road crews were able to clear many nearby streets of downed trees within a few short hours. Over at the Kelliher school, the crow’s nest was toppled, and the athletics shed was somersaulted over and over! We have not had any reports of people or animals hurt but there was quite a bit of damage. While storm chasers reported a tornado touch-down, there are still some questions of whether Monday night’s storms will be labeled a tornado. NWS Grand Forks will decide once Sentinel satellite data arrives.

This was not the first round of severe weather this summer up in northern Minnesota. There have been six severe thunderstorm warnings and two tornado warnings right over the city of Red Lake itself, and just since June! Plus, don’t forget that the Bemidji Blowdown was not that far away in 2025.

Temperatures and dew points drop in the wake of Monday night’s cool front. Some lingering showers, thunder south. A cool night and nice Wednesday before things warm back up.

Lingering showers south, dropping dew points Tuesday

We have some lingering showers and thunderstorms in southern Minnesota early Tuesday as our cool front continues to slide south and southeast. Some additional showers and thunder could develop near and behind the front in far southern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon, mainly along I-90, perhaps as far north as Redwing.

Skies will be brighter north with a mix of clouds and sunshine south. Afternoon highs will be in the 70s for most with just upper 60s in far northern Minnesota.

Dew points will drop from the 60s into the 50s and 40s north through the day. That drier, more comfortable air sticks around into early Thursday before dew points will creep back up again by the weekend.

Open the windows tonight and enjoy a nice cool, comfortable overnight. Temperatures will dip into the 40s in northern Minnesota with 50s south under clear skies.

Wednesday will yield a gorgeous day. We’ll have lot of sun, low dew points and highs mostly in the 70s with some low 80s in the Red River Valley.

Temperatures and dew points increase again starting Thursday and Friday. It will make for a very warm and muggy (at times) weekend. Highs will be back in the mid to upper 80s.

Dew points will increase from the comfortable 50s and 40s Tuesday through Thursday back into the 60s to near 70 degrees by Friday. Dew points will slosh back and forth from the comfortable 50s to near 70 degrees at times as a frontal boundary meanders around the region this weekend.

The combination of fast-moving upper level disturbances and that increase in moisture will create at least some spotty thunder chances at times. Northern Minnesota may see some activity Wednesday night. Southern Minnesota can expect some activity late Friday and Saturday and then perhaps again on Monday. Unfortunately, all chances will be hit and miss in nature and unlikely to bring significant rainfall.

As 1,000 plus total fire personnel continue to battle the so-called July Lightning Incident and Little Knife fires around the Boundary Waters Canoe Area and wilderness land, there are new signs pointing to a heightening fire threat lasting into the fall.

The first picture you’ll see is the August fire weather outlook, for potential new fires. Notice a ton of places (the Everglades, Gulf coast, Pacific Northwest, etc.) are a part of this. If you look at the historical track record, that’s all to be expected.

We’re in a drought — though the last batch of big rains really did a lot to help — and so fuels are quite dry. I pulled some data from fuel moisture on Monday and that’s posted right below this paragraph. The point is, that even after all this recent rain, the Boundary Waters and North Shore are still home of the driest wood in the state of Minnesota. At least, on Monday.

Now we zip ahead to October, since effectively, September looks about the same as August’s map. OK, this looks a lot different. Puerto Rico is still lit up but the rest of the USA is all blank on the map… except for northern Minnesota.

The three month outlook still favors drier weather. If you only looked at the Climate Prediction Center maps this far out, you might think we just have normal temperatures. The weather maps are not really in agreement there.

So, higher heat deeper into a drier fall would not be great. Note the similarity below for November 2026. We’re going to do some more deeper dives into the winter impacts of El Niño on wildfires in the future. Because there’s often a lot of snow blanketing northern Minnesota, there’s not exactly a lot of data points on Super El Niño and winter wildfires in Minnesota.

We’ve obviously had a ton of lightning in the Boundary Waters over the last 45 days. In many cases, there’s been more lightning strikes per acre than one might expect in a full calendar year. That’s based off of this Vaisala data above.

Vaisala is a Finnish company and they’ve got a ton of data for lightning; they’re basically the world leaders in anything lightning technology-related. This year has been a lot different, of course. But if lightning is limited going into the fall, that would be better news for Minnesotans.

Thunderstorms are already bringing rain to parts of Minnesota early Monday, with additional rounds of storms expected to develop later Monday and continue into early Tuesday.

As the day goes on Monday, warmer temperatures and increasing dew points will help fuel additional thunderstorm development along the cold front, with some storms becoming strong to severe by Monday evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of western, northwestern and north-central Minnesota under a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather. The main threats will be damaging wind gusts, large hail and locally heavy rainfall through early Tuesday morning.

While a few storms may become severe later, the rainfall that accompanies them will be welcomed across much of Minnesota. Drought conditions have continued to expand in recent weeks, doubling in some areas in a short period of time. For more information on the current drought conditions, check out Sven’s Updraft post from last week.

Additional rainfall opportunities are expected later this week. The latest European model forecast suggests many areas of Minnesota could receive 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain over the next seven days, which would be very welcoming news.

An advancing cool front out of the Dakotas will touch off more storms late Monday into Tuesday morning. Behind the front we’ll see another dip in temperatures and dew points.

Advancing cool front increases storm chances Monday into Tuesday

It’ll be a bit warmer and more humid Monday ahead of an advancing cool front. Thunderstorm activity in northwest Minnesota will slowly fizzle out this morning. Afternoon highs will be in the 80s for most.

More storms will develop late this afternoon and evening into the overnight across northwest and north-central Minnesota. Some of those storms could be severe initially. Activity will then attempt to move south and east overnight. We’ll likely see a broken line of showers and some thunder in southern Minnesota into Tuesday morning.

There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms across northwest and north-central Minnesota late Monday into Monday night. All hazards are possible but particularly damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Dew points will be more muggy Monday, back into the 60s and 70s for most, but behind the front dew points will drop again for Tuesday and Wednesday into the comfy 50s.

Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 70s for most of the state with perhaps only 60s in far northern Minnesota.

Temperatures and dew points will tick upward a bit for the end of the week and weekend after a few comfortable and cooler days.

The increase in temperature and dew points by the weekend, combined with a couple fast-moving upper level disturbances will bring in some spotty thunderstorm chances. Northern Minnesota could see some thunderstorms Thursday with a statewide chance by late Saturday.

We promised a carbon copy day didn’t we? And well, it was very pleasant all across Minnesota. Perhaps some nighttime rain would have helped the garden and nearby ranchers but, all in all, not a bad weekend!

You may have heard about Monday evening’s thunderstorm threat. If not, storms are still coming for parts of Minnesota. Most of the acreage across the North Star state, however, should probably still plan on watering plants throughout the week; we’re certainly not all getting rain!

Prior to the rain itself, we have a hotter and soupy Monday. We should have lots of sunshine as the ‘convective debris’ clouds from northern Minnesota may have a hard time reaching the rest of the state. So, plan on it being hotter than the weekend. The primary - possible - severe threat is still from the NE corner of South Dakota (near the Sisseton Hills) over to Fergus Falls and then up to International Falls. This goes from 8:00 p.m. Monday - 2:00 a.m. Tuesday. Following that time slot, some others may get rain, but not likely for the Twin Cities and points south of that.

Outside of this brief round of strong storms on Monday night, most of the rest of the workweek is dry, albeit marginally cooler. The next best chance of rain on the American weather maps is Friday evening, followed by Sunday. The next best chance of rain on the European maps is Saturday evening. No matter the timing, and those details will eventually iron themselves out for us, that’s still several days of dry weather into the future.

Extras:

The Minnesota River Valley got a tremendous amount of helpful rain on Thursday night into Friday of last week. We talked about what that could mean for the meandering watercourse. Well, now that things have had time to move downstream, we still haven’t had flooding issues. Take the Minnesota River at the Morton gauge, for example. The river has climbed five feet since Friday and we’re still roughly four feet from ‘action’ stage. That surprised me given the volume of water that went into the basin. This is really a sign of just how low the water was, to still be so far away from any concern.

For the week ahead, temperatures will start to drop a little once we get past Monday’s delayed and weakened front. It’s not a major change but something we’ll keep our eyes on.

High pressure keeps things bright and dry Sunday. The next cool front will advance out of the Dakotas into Minnesota early this week touching off the next chance of thunder.

Another gorgeous day Sunday before the next chance of thunder

If you liked Saturday, you’ll love Sunday. It’ll be another gorgeous, sun-filled day Sunday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s for portions of far southeast Minnesota and northeast Minnesota. Most of central Minnesota will see highs in the 80s. Things heat up in the Red River Valley where low 90s are possible.

Winds will be light in eastern Minnesota where high pressure is still in control Sunday but winds increase in western Minnesota out ahead of an advancing cool front in the Dakotas. Winds in western Minnesota will be 15-30 mph from the south.

It’ll be another comfortable overnight with lows falling into the 60s and 50s across the state once again with mainly clear skies for most.

Monday will be warmer for most with highs in the low to mid 80s. We’ll start to see high clouds increase as storms develop west later in the day.

We’ll see scattered showers and storms develop early Monday and again later in the day ahead of the cool front in northwest Minnesota. Those showers and storms will then attempt to advance south and east but largely fall apart before attempting to redevelop Tuesday in southern Minnesota.

There’s a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms in northwest Minnesota late Monday. Isolated tornadoes are possible along with potential damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Behind the front, temperatures will be a bit cooler and dew points will be comfortable, in the 50s Tuesday through Thursday.

What’s not to love? We just had solid rains, the skeeter count is low, air quality remains excellent, and the breeze is flowing in some lower humidity. According to the newest Metropolitan Mosquito Control District’s count around the Twin Cities, the human-biting count was only about half its 10-year-average for those late July dates. They do warn, however, that vector-borne diseases peak in August, so things are not all quiet. That said, you might now get bitten quite as much! It’s a little different in Scandia and May, on the far northeastern suburbs of the Cities, where the count was a little higher.

The UV metric was pretty darn high Saturday, but everything else was looking great considering we just had the really helpful rain. Enjoy the lower humidity, as we fall down to lowers ranging from the upper 50s in the Arrowhead to the lower 60s across the rest of Minnesota. There may once again be a hint of dense fog in river valleys where wind doesn’t punch all the way down to the waterline.

Sunday is - well - almost a repeat of Saturday. We are mostly dry (maybe a sprinkle along the lake boundary for Superior along the North Shore) and fairly warm, though humidity is kept in check behind the last front.

The main active weather event of the workweek is here on Monday night into Tuesday’s pre-dawn hours. There’s still that level two-out-of-five severe weather risk for northwestern Minnesota, from the top of the Minnesota River Valley over into north-central Minnesota, capped off near Lake of the Woods. If those areas sound familiar, it’s because that’s been the epicenter of the severe weather events so far this summer. From hail to tornadoes, they mostly have been in the northwestern parts of the state in summer 2026. The timeline is roughly 8:00 p.m. Monday until about 3:00 a.m. Tuesday. What’s new is that, not only are the storms weakening as they move out from the Dakotas, but now, there’s barely any rain left over for the rest of the state once the severe threat wraps up early Tuesday. Totally a feast or famine rain event.

Wednesday through Friday is a little cooler, upper 70s in lieu of the middle 80s, and is mostly dry once again. The new drought monitor, released each Thursday, will be really interesting to see the first week in August. Despite the really have rain a couple of days ago, it’s somewhat unclear what will happen with drought - we still need more than a foot of rain in many places to undo that.

After a much needed soaking yesterday, the sun is back for the weekend and it will be beautiful. Temperatures remain seasonable into next week with no 90s expected.

Beautiful weekend with seasonable temps continuing into next week

We very much needed that rainfall that many of us saw in central and southern Minnesota yesterday. Much of the southern half or third of the state saw over 1 inch of rain with locally higher amounts (some places saw 5 to 7 inches!) in some areas. Winthrop in Sibley county measured 6.75 inches of rainfall. Officially, at the Minneapolis-St. Paul international airport, we received 1.53 inches. Chanhassen received 3.09 inches.

It was a cool and wet end to what was an otherwise hot and dry July. In fact, it goes down as our 6th hottest July in the Twin Cities (since 1873) and the 5th or 6th hottest statewide. It was likely THE hottest July (and month) nationwide.

Here we are now in August and Saturday and Sunday look beautiful. We have lots of sunshine and seasonable temperatures. Highs Saturday will be in the upper 70s to low to mid 80s for most. Dew points will be in the low to mid 60s.

We’ll have a comfortable overnight with lows dropping into the 50s for most places outside the Twin Cities. Pockets of northeast Minnesota may even see lows in the 40s!

Sunday will be another beauty with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Temperatures will creep up a bit more in the Red River Valley with highs in the mid to upper 80s there. Dew points may even drop into the 50s for much of the state making it very comfortable.

The next cool front moves in late Monday into Tuesday. It will touch off the next chance of some storms in northwest Minnesota late Monday with spotty chances farther south into Tuesday.

Behind that front, temperatures and dew points will dip even a bit more for Wednesday. Highs Wednesday maybe in just the 70s for most of the state. There are no 90-degree high temperatures in sight this upcoming week.

Rain wraps up Friday evening. The weekend begins foggy but wraps up with lots of sunshine and cooler weather than we’ve had recently. The next best chance of rain is early next Tuesday.

Rain falls over a parched Minnesota

As advertised, the slow and steady stratiform rain stalled out, lingering well into the much cooler afternoon across southern Minnesota.

St. Peter, New Ulm, Redwood and Granite Falls picked up significant rain. While we have not seen much flooding yet, I’ll be interested to see the lower Minnesota River Valley in the coming days.

In the Twin Cities, we’re closing in on the largest 24-hour total rainfall in nearly a year at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.

The rains wraps up for most by dinner time, but might linger around the Twin Cities Friday evening through 7 p.m. or a little longer.

Dry weekend, then early week storms

The weekend starts off kind of damp. Some in Minnesota may contend with fog early Saturday morning. But conditions will dry out quickly.

We expect storms late Monday night into Tuesday. This has long been blinking as the next sign of a cold front. Often that means severe weather this time of the year.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center has added parts of Minnesota to its Monday-Tuesday threat map.

Much the rest of the workweek is tranquil and warm.

Highs will be generally in the lower 80s, and so many may be able to save a few bucks on the air-conditioning bill, which could be big this year after our multiple heat waves. July 2026 should go down as the warmest overall month ever recorded in American history.

Following Tuesday morning’s powerful front we are looking at some more chances by Saturday next week. This is more of a north-to-south mover.

We’ll have lots of clouds and scattered showers and thunder Friday. Sunshine will break out slowly from north to south. A nice, seasonable weekend is on the way.

Some needed moisture Friday ahead of a nice weekend

A flood warning is posted through 1:45 p.m. Friday for Sibley, Le Sueur, and Nicollet counties. Radar estimates up to 6 inches of rain has fallen through midmorning Friday. Le Sueur measured 4.95 inches through 7 a.m. Friday.

As expected, a swath of heavy rainfall set up along the Minnesota River overnight Thursday night into Friday morning. An axis from Willmar through Gaylord and Le Sueur received up to 3 to 6 inches of rainfall (red dots).

In the Twin Cities, most rainfall ranges from one-quarter inch to 1 inch through midmorning Friday.

A flood watch continues for portions of west-central and south-central Minnesota through midday Friday as the rain continues. Some of it will potentially be heavy with another 1 to 3 inches possible in some localized areas.

Our latest disturbance continues to keep clouds, showers and some thunderstorms around much of central and southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin Friday morning. Those showers and thunderstorms will gradually become more widely scattered and spotty during the afternoon and evening.

Sunshine will break out slowly from north to south. That means afternoon highs will be warmest in northern Minnesota where low to mid-80s are likely. We’ll see cloud and rain-cooled highs in the 70s across most of central and southern Minnesota.

The weekend is looking absolutely gorgeous. We’ll have a lot of sunshine. Temperatures will be more seasonable with a slight dip in dew points. Highs Saturday and Sunday should be in the mid-80s — close to normal.

Another cool front will touch off some spotty showers and thunderstorm chances Tuesday and bring a further dip in dew points and temperatures for midweek next week. We may be in for quite a break from 90-degree temperatures we’ve had for most of the state.

Thunderstorms and heavy rain roll in later Thursday, wrapping up for most by noon Friday. Minnesota’s drought conditions, though, continue to worsen.

Much of Minnesota down a foot of rain

The latest report from the National Drought Mitigation Center shows drought conditions deepening across Minnesota.

Based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data, here’s how much rain several parts of Minnesota would need, spread out over three months, to alleviate drought without causing flooding:

• Northwest: 14.01 inches

• North-central: 19.56 inches

• Northeast: 14.69 inches

• Southeast: none

• South-central: 12.15 inches

• Southwest: 12.22 inches

• Twin Cities area: 16.22 inches

• Central: 12.15 inches

• West-central: 10.01 inches

That’s a whole lot of rain.

For reference, Minneapolis and St. Paul average just over 31 inches of precipitation over an entire year, melted snow included. To get rid of drought would require about six months of rain in half that time!

While the lilies and hydrangeas may look great now, this drought is not going to leave soon.

Rain on the way for many

On Thursday, we’ll top out in the lower 90s across the region, except perhaps far northern Minnesota where the rain starts the earliest.

Along the Canadian border, some booming thunderstorms start bringing downpours around 4 p.m. Thursday near Lake of the Woods. For many other spots, especially southwestern Minnesota, the rain gets here just before midnight.

The latest data makes kind of a Pac-Man shape for rain totals. That would leave Duluth, Brainerd, and east-central Minnesota a lot more dry than it once looked.

Rain rolls through the Twin Cities around dawn on Friday. It will be a cooler day with largely overcast skies, but we’re not looking at an all-day rainout.

Friday should be in the mid-70s, although some maps show quite a bit warmer temperatures. We could have much higher temps in northern Minnesota, where the clouds will not linger.

The weekend is all dry, so go out and enjoy the more moderate temps!

The next best chance of rain is still next Monday night into Tuesday. Some of that front could be pretty powerful.

While we’re NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center doesn’t have Minnesota in a severe outlook yet, we would not be surprised if that changes given the dynamics for this time of the year.

Later into next week, we have more quiet weather and some middle 80s for highs across the state.

After two rounds of hot, dry weather this month, flash drought has taken hold in Minnesota. The state’s total area now under drought has doubled in the last two weeks.

Drought expanding rapidly in Minnesota

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor report for Minnesota is pretty alarming. Drought really has expanded in the last two weeks due to a heat dome and another recent heat wave. Areas of at least moderate drought have doubled in the last two weeks.

Severe drought conditions have doubled in just the last week, now covering 35 percent of Minnesota. All of north-central and northeastern Minnesota is in severe drought along with pockets in the Red River Valley and southwestern Minnesota.

Hot conditions combined with some of the strongest sunshine of the year and a lack of consistent, soaking rains have really taken a toll on soil moisture content. Anyone who has tried to dig in the dirt can see the surface soils are like powder out there.

In the Twin Cities at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, the surface soils contain just 0.5 percent moisture content; 30 percent is considered ideal. We have to go down about 2.5 feet to reach that for much of the metro, which is now entirely classified in drought.

We now have the most drought in the state since late October 2024.

While there’s no official definition for flash drought, most consider if the rapid onset of drought within days or weeks which would certainly qualify much of Minnesota this summer.

North-central Minnesota has seen stubborn drought since last year. For most of the rest of the state, including the Twin Cities metro area, this has developed quickly in just July.

There is some rainfall on the way late Thursday into Friday but it will take more than one soaking rainfall to mitigate these conditions. The heaviest rainfall is favored for southwestern Minnesota and along the Minnesota River Valley with much less north and east of that area.

Thursday will be another very warm and muggy day, but some rain and thunder is on the way for many of us — and we could really use it.

Slightly cooler, more seasonable temperatures follow.

Much need rain and thunder on the way

We have one more hot and muggy day on the way Thursday. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 80s to even near 90 degrees again for some. Clouds will be on the increase ahead of some needed moisture.

Scattered showers and storms will develop in western Minnesota later in the day Thursday. Some of those initial storms could be strong or severe. Showers and thunder will then fill in east overnight into Friday morning.

There’s a marginal severe risk (level 1 of 5) for western Minnesota for those afternoon and evening storms Thursday. Most storms will be of the garden variety as they move east overnight.

Needed rain as drought deepens

The big headline is that things are very dry for most and this moisture comes just in time.

Many areas could see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall into Friday with some locally higher amounts up to 3 or 4 inches. With the nature of thunderstorms, however, not everyone will get ample moisture evenly.

The forecast models are narrowing in on southwestern Minnesota and the Minnesota River Valley getting the most significant amounts.

Behind the system, more seasonable temperatures and sunshine move in the for the weekend. We’ll see highs in the 80s with a slight dip in dew points. Another front next week could drop dew points even more by midweek.

Needed, heavy rain is coming to southwestern Minnesota and across the state in the next 40 hours, temporarily easing drought conditions.

The weekend shapes up to be cooler. More rain is likely early next week.

Drought conditions bake Minnesota, but rain is near

Last week’s drought conditions report showed much of Minnesota needing rain.

In southwestern Minnesota, ranchers the past few days have used the USDA’s Condition Monitoring Observer Reports on Drought tool to report how dry it is on their pastures. Some have taken cows off the land a couple of months ahead of schedule. Grass is gone, creeks are drying and hay is struggling.

In the Twin Cities, the shallowest soil moisture is only 0.4 percent of normal. Conditions get a lot better way deep down in the soil, but it may be time to water your garden in a big way.

We will see at farmer’s markets later this summer how this drought impacts the yield, and subsequently, the price of fruits and vegetables not grown in greenhouses.

Rain Thursday into Friday

After a toasty Wednesday, Thursday morning will be pleasant and noticeably cooler. The clouds begin to roll in and the humidity jumps up a notch.

Here are the forecast highs and lows:

We still climb back into the 90s all across Minnesota with rain in the later afternoon into the evening.

Some of this lingers in southwestern Minnesota. Several weather maps bring a couple of inches of fresh rain to areas like Marshall and Worthington. That would be great.

The rain picks up after dusk Thursday into the early morning hours of Friday. The actual frontal passage happens Friday evening, and it may bring a hit of rain from northwest to southeast.

A couple of severe storms seem possible in central Minnesota, closer to Brainerd and Bemidji, which is where things have popped up all summer long.

Cooler weekend; more rain early next week

The weekend shapes up to be cooler, though still pretty close to the weekly average. That means highs in the middle 80s across much of Minnesota. Lows are a little above normal, in the middle 60s in most spots.

There will also be some river valley fog, though perhaps a little less than the dense fog advisories we’ve had in recent days.

The afternoon model runs from the the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System show a big front and widespread rain Monday night into Tuesday. Hopefully, this doesn’t pack severe weather.

We should warm back up by the weekend of Aug 8-9. There are signals for a few more powerful fronts and rainmakers into the extended forecast, but I’m always a little skeptical this far out.

We’ll be near 90 degrees still Wednesday and Thursday. We have a decent chance of needed rain and thunder Thursday night into Friday followed by more seasonable temperatures.

A couple more hot days then some hopeful rain chances

It’ll be another hot day with highs near 90 degrees once again Wednesday afternoon. We could see highs in the mid to upper 90s in northwestern Minnesota and the Red River Valley. Dew points will be mainly in the 60s with some near 70-degree dew points west.

As high pressure drifts east, “return flow” develops which will allow more muggy air to move back in. An isolated shower or thunderstorm can’t be ruled out Wednesday afternoon as a result but most will remain dry.

You’ll also notice skies becoming more hazy Wednesday afternoon and evening as additional, elevated wildfire smoke from fires in Oregon and Washington moves in from the west and northwest into Wednesday night.

Thursday will be the last day near 90 degrees for a little while. High clouds will increase ahead of the next disturbance.

Scattered showers and storms develop Thursday afternoon in western Minnesota and expand east into Thursday night and Friday ahead of the next cool front and upper-level disturbance moving through the region. This will bring a hopeful chance at much needed moisture.

There’s even a marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk for western Minnesota Thursday into Thursday night. A couple of initial storms that develop in northwestern and western Minnesota late Thursday afternoon and evening could pack a punch.

Total rainfall could be significant for many and it comes at a time when conditions are really becoming very dry.

It’s difficult to pinpoint where the heaviest rain will fall yet but there’s a real potential for 1 to 2 or more inches of rain anywhere in central and southern Minnesota late Thursday into Friday.

Behind the system, temperatures will be more seasonable — mostly in the 80s for the weekend into early next week with dew points back in the 60s and 50s primarily.

As meteorologists, one of the questions we hear all the time is: “Why don't you talk about relative humidity?” After all, it's the humidity number most people see on weather apps and forecasts.

The answer is simple: relative humidity doesn't tell the whole story.

Dew point vs. relative humidity

Relative humidity depends on temperature. As the air warms during the day, the relative humidity can drop even though the amount of moisture in the air hasn't changed at all. That's why a summer afternoon can feel incredibly sticky while the relative humidity appears surprisingly low.

That's where dew point comes in. Dew point measures the actual amount of moisture in the air, making it a much better indicator of how humid and uncomfortable it feels outside.

Monday was a perfect example of why meteorologists focus on dew point instead of relative humidity.

We actually had two weather stories unfolding. While the Twin Cities climbed to a scorching 100 degrees during the afternoon, the other impressive statistic may have been the dew point, which reached an astonishing 81 degrees earlier Monday morning.

Interestingly, the dew point didn't stay that high all day. As drier air mixed into the atmosphere, dew points fell significantly during the afternoon. That drop in moisture actually helped temperatures soar into the triple digits.

Had the dew point remained in the low 80s throughout the day, the atmosphere would have struggled to heat up as efficiently, likely keeping air temperatures a bit lower while sending the heat index even higher.

In other words, Minnesota traded some of its tropical humidity for even hotter air. The result was a rare combination of a 100-degree temperature and a morning dew point more commonly found along the Gulf Coast.

So while the century mark grabbed the headlines, it was the tropical-level moisture earlier in the day that made stepping outside feel like walking into a sauna. That's why meteorologists focus on dew point when talking about humidity. It tells us what the air actually feels like, not just what percentage of moisture it can hold.

The next time you wonder how humid it is, take a look at the dew point. That's the number meteorologists are watching, and it's the number that explains why some summer days feel comfortable while others feel like you're breathing through a warm, damp towel.

If you’re like me, you look out the window onto the lawn and you see… yellow and brown. We’ve had some rain at times, sure, but drought is building into parts of Minnesota and there’s only really one widespread chance of rain at a statewide level in the next few days. That happens at the same time as highs stay in the lower 90s.

After some wild dew points early Monday and then our first 100° day in over four years, Tuesday is looking a lot quieter in the MPR weather lab. We’re still in the lower-to-middle 90s before you know it, but humidity is not as impactful.

There’s an itty-bitty surface high near New Ulm and Albert Lea, but it’s effectively not doing much. We have fair skies, ultralight winds, and a very high UV index on Tuesday. Around dusk, there are a few signals of a couple of thunderstorms in far southwestern Minnesota. That’s where a leftover boundary has been hiding, kept from storms a couple of nights ago.

Wednesday brings more of the same. That means abundant sunshine, some upper level smoke (perhaps noticeable to the eye but not necessarily impacting surface air quality or threatening breathing), and more ‘dry heat.’ Highs are still in the lower-to-middle 90s, with some 80s sprinkled throughout northern Minnesota. While this weather is not great for the firefighting, at least the winds are light.

Thursday is our best chance of rain this coming week - and it has long appeared that way. Hopefully this will help with drought, even for a day, and allow fire crews to approach containment.

High pressure keeps sunshine in place Tuesday. It will still be hot with highs near 90, but dew points will be just muggy instead of oppressive like early Monday.

Still near 90 degrees next few days

This is the cool side of Monday’s front, believe it or not. After reaching 100 degrees Monday, many on Tuesday will still see afternoon highs near 90 degrees. That’s cooler than the last two days but still well above normal.

Look for lots of sunshine thanks to high pressure centered over Lake Superior and light south winds developing.

Dew points won’t be too bad, in the low to mid-60s mostly for Tuesday. That’s still muggy but not nearly as humid as early Monday’s 80-degree dew points.

The dew point will increase again slightly Wednesday as the high pressure area moves away and return flow commences.

That subtle increase in dew points means the risk of some isolated or spotty thunder Wednesday in at least central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Consider yourself lucky if you get a good downpour.

The better chances of rainfall come Thursday night into Friday ahead of another weak cool front. We sure could use the moisture in central and southern Minnesota.

It is the convective season, so there’s never a guarantee with rainfall amounts with thunderstorms, but we could get some significant moisture. Many forecast models dump 1 to 2 inches across central and southern Minnesota.

Behind this second cool front this week, temperatures and dew points will again dip ever so slightly for the weekend with highs still in the 80s statewide.

Dew points will remain in the 60s south, but more comfortable dew points in the 50s are likely in northern Minnesota for the weekend.

A weak frontal passage Monday afternoon will drop dew points by 15 to 23 degrees.

The best chance for widespread rain this week comes Thursday as the broader heat dome begins to buckle and a northwest flow centers over Minnesota.

Oppressive humidity starts to break

Ouch! Did you feel the incredibly intense humidity on Sunday? Not only was it the hottest day in four years at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, but we had late night dew points of 81 degrees there as well.

That was only 1 degree away from the all-time record dew point at MSP but that’s not as impressive as the other statistic.

Prior to Monday morning, the airport had only recorded 28 total hours with a dew point over 80 degrees. On Monday alone, we were in that range for six straight hours.

If you’re hoping for relief in the humidity, you’re very much in luck. A weak frontal passage Monday afternoon does not bring us rain but it does drop dew points by 15 to 23 degrees by the time you head home from work.

It will still be hot, with air temperatures around 90 degrees but we will just will not be as swampy.

The heat ridge over the Rockies and Upper Midwest is beginning to slowly break down a few miles above our heads in Minnesota. There is not much of a noticeable sign on the ground, yet, but temps do fall a little bit starting Tuesday.

Tuesday through Thursday should be in the lower 90s across much of the state but most days start out around 70.

Thursday is when the broader heat dome — our third big one of 2026 — begins to buckle. The northwest flow centers over Minnesota, and a front drags through our best widespread chance of rains this week.

According to the Minnesota State Climatology Office, 80-degree dew points are extraordinarily uncommon in the Twin Cities. Since reliable records began in 1945, there have been just 34 hours with dew points of 80 degrees or higher.

Until now, much of that rarity was concentrated in just a couple of historic events. A remarkable 10 of those 34 hours occurred during a 10-hour stretch from July 12-13, 1995. Another eight hours were recorded between July 17-19, 2011.

Now, July 27, 2026, joins that exclusive list. The Twin Cities added six more hours with 80-degree dew points, including a peak dew point of 81 degrees.

The highest dew point ever observed in the Twin Cities remains 82 degrees, recorded on July 19, 2011. That event still stands as the local benchmark for tropical humidity.

Across Minnesota, the state record is even more astonishing. In Moorhead, the dew point climbed to an incredible 88 degrees during the 2011 heat wave. That combination of extreme heat and moisture pushed the heat index above 130 degrees.

Only a handful of years have ever produced 80-degree dew points in the Twin Cities:

• 1966

• 1983

• 1995

• 1999

• 2002

• 2005

• 2011

• 2026

With six more hours added to the record books today, 2026 has secured its place alongside some of Minnesota's most memorable humidity events. While air temperatures often get the headlines, dew point is what determines just how oppressive the air feels — and an 80-degree dew point is about as uncomfortable as it gets in the Upper Midwest.

A weak cool front is moving across the state but it will still be hot Monday. Temperatures and dew points will drop just a bit for Tuesday. Storms are possible by the end of the week.

Still hot Monday but subtle cooling for midweek

The Twin Cities and much of southern Minnesota set record high dew points for the date early Monday morning.

We reached a dew point of 81 degrees in the Twin Cities, which breaks the record of 77 for the date, and came just 1 degree from the all-time record high dew point of 82 degrees set in 2011. We’ve only reached an 81-degree dew point or higher in 2011 and 1999.

Dew points will drop through the day Monday behind the first of two weak cool fronts this week. Dew points should fall from the 70s into the 60s and maybe even 50s at times.

Temperatures will remain pretty warm but those too will drop a few degrees into Tuesday and midweek.

It will be another hot one Monday but not quite as hot and humid as Sunday. There are a few lingering showers and thunderstorms in the Arrowhead this morning. Highs Monday will still be in the 90s across southern Minnesota.

A heat advisory is posted for the Twin Cities and points southeast for Monday due to afternoon heat index values that will be between 95 and 100 degrees.

You’ll also notice hazy skies due to mostly elevated wildfire smoke Monday. This smoke is coming from wildfires in Washington and Oregon riding upper level winds:

The surface air quality is mostly good to moderate for most of Minnesota. Portions of northwestern Minnesota are seeing air quality slip to into the unhealthy (orange) category for sensitive groups Monday morning.

We’ll likely see smoke fill the skies, at least aloft, on and off this week with a west and northwest flow in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere:

Tuesday will be slightly cooler and less humid. Highs will still be near 90 degrees, but dew points will be a bit lower, mostly in the low 60s. You can copy and paste for Wednesday and Thursday.

The next front moves through Thursday night into Friday. That could touch off our next chance of any showers or thunderstorms.

Behind that front, temperatures and dew points will drop a bit more for the weekend but we’ll still see above normal temperatures, likely in the mid to upper 80s.

Some storms are possible this evening and overnight; mainly northeast Minnesota into Wisconsin. The heat continues this week though not quite as hot and humid by Tuesday.

Conditional storm threat with heat continuing

A very steamy Sunday could lead to some evening and overnight thunderstorms for some. The threat is conditional since the atmosphere is capped across much of central and southern Minnesota. That means it’s too warm in the mid-levels of the atmosphere to allow surface air to ascend and produce storms.

We expect some storms to fire up in northeast Minnesota into Wisconsin, just north of the strongest cap, or mid-level layer of warm air. These storms would then travel east southeast into the overnight Sunday.

There’s an enhanced severe risk (level 3 of 5) for far east-central and northeast portions of Minnesota into Wisconsin. The main threats will be from damaging wind gusts and large hail, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

A weak cool front slides across the state Monday. It will mostly bring a wind shift with north winds 10-20 mph. Temperatures and dew points will drop slightly into Tuesday, but Monday will still be pretty hot across southern Minnesota.

Tuesday through Thursday will be ever so slightly cooler with highs still near 90 degrees for many in central and southern Minnesota. The next cool front moves through Thursday night into Friday which will bring the next chance of some thunder and another subtle drop in temperatures and dew points behind it for the weekend.

It will be a steamy one Sunday with afternoon heat index values over 100 degrees. Storms are possible late Sunday into the night. A weak cool front will drop temps and dew points, but just slightly.

Extreme heat Sunday with some possible storms, followed by slight drop in temps, dew points late Monday

It’s a hot one this Sunday. Afternoon highs will be well into the 90s to potentially near 100 degrees in far western Minnesota. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy across the state.

With dew points in the low 70s, the afternoon heat index will be over 100 degrees across most of central, southern and western Minnesota.

We’re also on the lookout for some possible storms Sunday evening and overnight. The atmosphere is pretty capped with warm air aloft preventing storms from developing, except perhaps in northern Minnesota late this afternoon and evening.

If storms can develop, they could expand and dive south in the overnight. Here’s one likely scenario from NOAA’s high resolution rapid refresh forecast model:

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is more aggressive, with overnight storms reaching the Twin Cities metro.

Any storms that do fire up have the potential to become severe, with lots of energy resulting from the hot, humid air mass and shear aloft.

There’s an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) forecast for severe weather from east central Minnesota into Wisconsin with a broad slight risk (level 2 of 5) for most of Minnesota and Wisconsin. The most likely hazards will come from damaging wind gusts and large hail. In addition, any storms that pop could produce very heavy rainfall due to the high dew points in this air mass.

A weak cool front moves through Monday. It will mostly drop dew points from the low 70s into the low to mid 60s. Temperatures will still well into the 90s Monday, but by Tuesday, temps dip slightly to near 90 degrees.

The next chance of storms will come Thursday night into Friday as the next weak cool front slides through the region.