From a piercing blue sky to an upward trend in Tuesday rainfall amounts, more summery heat for the first time in two weeks and some thunderstorms, we’ve got a little something for every weather taste this week.

Showers, isolated thunderstorms Tuesday

Today is a pick-of-the-week day, an opportunity to get outside for as long as possible without inclement weather.

Because humidity is even lower than the last few days — there is a high pressure dome over Minnesota — we can more easily warm to a high near 80 degrees. That’s a little bit below average.

Tuesday brings some more promising rain for most of the state with heavier amounts than were forecast last week. The showers and isolated thunderstorms materialize mid to late morning, coming out of the Dakotas.

Expect showers in the Interstate 35 corridor, including the Twin Cities and suburbs, by early to midafternoon. Rain should continue through the evening commute.

Minnesota needs the rain. Much of north-central Minnesota remains in moderate to severe drought, according to last week’s drought conditions map.

We go into the spin cycle of cold air aloft across the Great Lakes Wednesday through early Friday. Traditionally, we’re a little cooler than the models may suggest, so I imagine we’ll be right around 70 degrees later in the workweek.

While Wednesday is mainly dry, Thursday and Friday could see a few showers with an ominous sky overhead at times.

Heavier rain possible next week

The rain that looks really heavy is slightly delayed until early next week. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Weather Prediction Center moved our risk for flooding rains until June 29 through July 1.

When I wrote Sunday afternoon’s edition of Updraft, the models were back in agreement after squabbling for next week’s rain. However, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA’s Global Forecast System are no longer in sync at all.

The maps below show the two competing views in rain coverage.

Monday will be warm and dry. The next chance of showers and storms develops Tuesday with lingering isolated chances midweek. Temperatures finally warm up this weekend.

Dry Monday with showers and storms Tuesday, then warming up

We’ll have a nice, dry Monday with partly cloudy skies. Highs will warm to near 80 degrees in southern Minnesota with 70s for most. Those readings are finally closer to normal.

High pressure is in control of Minnesota’s weather today but an upper level low is right behind it which will bring a good chance of rain and thunder for Tuesday.

We’ll see scattered showers and some thunder move into western Minnesota early Tuesday and that will track east with more development of thunderstorms in the afternoon Tuesday into Tuesday night.

There will be isolated to spotty thunder developing late Wednesday also due to lingering instability.

There is a marginal severe risk (level 1 of 5) across central and western Minnesota for some storms Tuesday.

Temperatures will generally be in the 70s — still a bit cooler than normal most of this week — but things are finally heating up by the weekend. We should see 80s return for the first time in a little while. Most forecast models push us to 90 degrees in fact next week.

We’re in for a likely pattern shift. The last 10 to 12 days have been cooler than normal as a series of upper level lows have kept cooler air and unsettled conditions in place on and off.

We’ll be flipping that pattern with upper level ridging developing in the central U.S. and upper lows in the west. This will push heat and moisture northward, ahead of it.

As a result, dew points will also increase this upcoming weekend into next week. That combination of increased temperature and moisture means we’ll also see the increased risk of of some thunderstorms.

Happy Father’s Day and welcome to summer 2026; nothing quite says summery weather and a long weekend at the lake like near-record-low temperatures in several spots in northern Minnesota.

There are still a few showers south and west of the Minnesota River through around dusk Sunday. That’s the part of the state that needs rain the most, so that’s some great longer-term news, even if it was dreary and cooler there on a holiday.

Monday is even drier, with highs close to 80 degrees. This is what we’ll call the “pick day” of the week, with lots of sunshine and lower humidity.

There is very, very little chance of rain, except perhaps near Fargo and Moorhead. Winds are fairly light as well on Monday, but Tuesday brings about a brief pattern change. An Upper Midwest storm comes in, starting with some rain during the morning for northwestern Minnesota.

The system moves east through the day — yet again largely skipping over the southwestern side of the state. Rain for the Interstate 35 region, including Rochester, Red Wing and the Twin Cities, is mostly after the evening commute timeframe.

The point is, for much of the day, a good chunk of Minnesota should remain dry, but rain is coming. The delayed rain should allow temps to climb a little higher, with a southern wind advecting more humidity in from the Corn Belt.

As I learned many years ago, there’s a meteorologist adage that goes, “Weatherman’s woe, beware the upper low.” That cold pool up in the clouds lingers behind the Tuesday storm, setting up a central Great Lakes spin cycle. That could spawn a few chilly rain showers at any point from Wednesday until early Friday. The weather will also be a little cooler (mid-70s) than the raw weather maps are projecting.

We remain in the “area to watch” for the heavier thunderstorms and general rain next Friday until Sunday. At the moment, the American maps are coming back into phase (agreement) with the European maps. Both tend to keep the rain plugged into Sunday, but now especially next Monday.

Happy Father’s Day and happy summer solstice. Minneapolis has 15 hours, 36 minutes and 50 seconds of daylight today! International Falls has 16 hours, 8 minutes and 25 seconds of daylight today!

There are a bunch of folks starting out in the THIRTIES this Father’s Day. Really chilly and most certainly not summerlike.

We have filtered sunshine for the southern half of the state, but the north has fair skies.

There is only a chance for isolated rain from 2-5 p.m. in the far southwest corner from Edgerton to Albert Lea. Most stay dry, but this impacted area is the part of Minnesota that, by far, could use rain for the biggest gains.

Highs will be around 77 today in the Twin Cities, near 70-71 throughout the Lakes in the north, which many people are visiting — thankfully, the mosquito count was seven times lower than normal for this week at last check.

Saturday could be considered a little muggy, but Sunday has a drier feel, with dew points cascading downwards. The same thing happens on a dry Monday, with a comfortable feel and ambient temperatures a little closer to 80 degrees.

Tuesday is still the best chance of rain across the state for the workweek, even though it doesn’t look like the all-day soaker it once seemed like. The rain will start late morning on the Dakotas border, where it’s also the heaviest. Maybe we’ll pick up a brief noon shower along the I-35 corridor, but most will be later evening around the Twin Cities. Highs will be near 80 again.

There are a few showers on Wednesday, just scattered. We have the “spin cycle” over us again late in the week, producing on-and-off clouds, and a few showers, at least on the European data. Some of the American weather maps still have us largely dry from Wednesday through early Friday.

All of Minnesota finds itself already in an outlook for heavy rain — we’ve actually been in one for several days now — for next Friday through Sunday. We’ll watch that carefully.

The next few weeks in Minnesota bring a time with the historical peak for severe weather all year. This week is not the biggest threat, but it’s that time of the year to stay weather-aware.

Cooler than normal temperatures prevail into the upcoming week, but a pattern shift could be coming for the end of the month. Tuesday will bring the next widespread chance of rain.

Cool into the week ahead, but a pattern shift could be coming

A very nice Saturday will lead into a cool overnight. It will be downright chilly in northern Minnesota where temperatures on the Iron Range could drop into the low 40s. Most will be in the 50s in southern Minnesota.

Father’s Day will pleasant but with increased cloud cover. The southwest part of the state will see some scattered showers on the northeast edge of a system mostly missing Minnesota.

The summer solstice is at 3:24 a.m. early Sunday morning, but it will remain cooler than normal with highs mostly in the 70s across the state. Normal highs are now in the low 80s in southern Minnesota.

Some showers and thunderstorms develop Monday night into Tuesday as the next upper level disturbance swings through the region. We could see anywhere from 0.10 to 0.50 inches of fresh rainfall for most, but there will be some locally higher amounts, especially in central or northern Minnesota.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal through Friday with highs mostly in the 70s south and upper 60s north but there could be a pattern shift ahead. The upper level pattern will slowly change allowing these frequent upper lows, bringing cool pockets of air in the central and eastern U.S. to shift away.

That means we could see 80-degrees again by the final weekend of June. We haven’t hit 80-degrees in the Twin Cities since June 12, despite it being the normal high now.

Beyond that the forecast models are mere entertainment, but they have gone back and forth on hinting at some heat in time for the Fourth of July holiday period.

It is looking increasingly likely we’ll flip from cooler than normal temperatures to above normal temperatures as we leave June and enter July.

We have a pleasant and mostly dry weekend for most of Minnesota. Highs will be mostly in the 70s, still a little cooler than normal. The next chance of rain, thunder develops Tuesday.

Pleasant weekend, continued cooler than normal until next weekend

We have a pretty nice, pleasant Saturday. We’ll see partly cloudy skies with temperatures a little bit cooler than normal once again. A couple isolated showers, thunderstorms are possible in the Arrowhead this afternoon. Highs will range from near 80-degrees in the southwest corner of the state to the upper 60s north.

Look for another cool overnight in northern Minnesota with temperatures on the Iron Range in particularly dropping into the low 40s once again under mainly clear skies and light winds.

The summer solstice is at 3:24 a.m. early Sunday morning. It’s the longest day of the year and the most intense sunlight. The sunrise will be at 5:26 a.m. and the sunset is at 9:03 p.m. Sunday. We should see much of that sunlight except in southwest Minnesota. Highs will again be mostly in the 70s.

As mentioned, southwest Minnesota will be on the northern edge of a disturbance bringing some showers and thunder to much of South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa. The rest of Minnesota will be dry.

Temperatures will remain a little cooler than normal through Friday of next week with highs mostly in the mid to upper 70s across southern Minnesota and in the upper 60s to low 70s in northern Minnesota. Those readings are about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal. Most models bring those of us in southern Minnesota closer to our normal of 80-degrees by next weekend.

The next disturbance moves in Tuesday, touching off some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most rainfall amounts look to be under 0.50 to 1.00 inches but there could be some locally higher amounts if we can get thunderstorms to develop.

The fall-like weather pattern with Clipper after Clipper continues on Friday, with a better chance of a brief soaking rain in the drought-impacted northern part of Minnesota. There’s a small chance of a severe storm from roughly 1:00 p.m. - 7:30 p.m. Friday, going from central Minnesota initially and wrapping up around Red Wing at the end of that stretch.

The storms will not affect everyone in Minnesota, and the rain is generally more even-keeled and longer lived in the morning for northern Minnesota (both of which are great for the level one and level two drought status up in Cass, Itasca, and Koochiching Counties). Once the storms start to develop into a more cellular setup after 1:00, it won’t actually rain as long, but the rain could be more intense. That could cause some midday slowdowns on the roads.

UPDATE: We have received reports via NWS Grand Forks of a tornado near Laporte in Hubbard County, MN. The issue is that this storm was at the extreme edge of both the ND radar and the one in Duluth; effectively the storm was invisible on radar. Because the tornado was called in by a trusted storm chaser, the NWS labeled it as an ‘observed’ or confirmed tornado. We are hunting for pictures or damage reports.

There were also funnels reported over Cass County. This is at the center of a COLD miniature low, so these could have been non-damaging cold air funnels that did not touch the ground.

Some of these storms are producing hail, however, especially near Onamia. That part could be causing damage.

Temperature-wise, we’re not quite as chilly as earlier in the week. Brimson, Tower, the Mesabi Trail area: you all were down into the 30s a few times during the workweek. With the clouds overnight, it’s more like the middle 40s in places. We are climbing effectively one degree each day, but are still below average this week.

Now we’ve made it to the weekend portion of the forecast! There’s a small chance of Arrowhead rains which we’re adding into the forecast, based off of data Friday morning.

The rain looks to mostly miss the Grandma’s Marathon and half up in Duluth, though it does appear there will be more cloud cover than it initially appeared. The breeze for the races is out of the northwest at 5-10 miles per hour. Gusts flare up a little later, also out of the northwest at 10-20 mph. The rain in Nebraska and Iowa is still there, but doesn’t really extend into Minnesota. On Sunday, a few storms are closing in on Interstate 90. There’s a small chance these showers reach all the way up to the Twin Cities.

Monday is mostly dry but Tuesday brings some soaking rain all across the states. Pack the rain gear before heading into work on Tuesday. Our weather looks a little more settled Wednesday through Thursday which is a little bit of an update.

We’re already in a Climate Prediction Center outlook box for the following weekend, June 26-28. Could have some real downpours *if* things hold together next Sunday.

A brand new 90-day outlook was also just released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. It shows the impact of El Niño from July to September.

We could be a little drier than average in northern Minnesota. Our team thinks this will be another warmer-than-normal summer, despite what the Climate Prediction Center map suggests.

Depending on where you live and visit, it either feels like everything is bone dry and dusty, or verdant and vibrant. There’s not much middle ground in Minnesota and surrounding counties right now. Drought actually extended this week, but what does that mean in day-to-day life? Let’s do a deep dive along with our friends at the National Integrated Drought Information System. We usually call them the drought.gov folks.

This is not a doom-and-gloom Updraft. For the moment, 80 percent of corn and soybeans are still doing very well based off of state supplied farmer reports. By acreage, under 40 percent of the state of Minnesota is actually in a drought right now. St. Cloud, the Fargo-Moorhead area, Duluth, Minneapolis and St. Paul are not in a drought — though we are certainly getting closer. There are four overall levels of drought possible. If you don’t look at this stuff all the time (like we meteorologists do at MPR News) it can get complex. The far southeast corner of Minnesota, including a sliver of Rochester, is in the first level. So are parts of southwestern MN, and much of northern Minnesota.

Into level two — this is called a severe drought — we head up to Cass, Itasca, Koochiching and more counties. Again, we zoom into southwestern Minnesota for level two. And in a tiny speck of Pipestone and Rock Counties, near Luverne, we are at level three — extreme. So that’s the numbers. The NIDIS folks go on to say: “Historically dry conditions across the Upper Midwest drove drought expansion in parts of Minnesota, northern Iowa, and Wisconsin,” they wrote Thursday in a special bulletin. They added: “Roughly 2.7 million people are in drought (estimated) across the Midwest, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.”

The Mississippi River is still exceptionally low at several gauges, from St. Cloud up to Aitkin, and even closer to the headwaters. Things are near historically bad levels, but the river level is flat enough and OK near the Twin Cities. If I were to pick one topic of concern, it’s this: There’s a surface drought which is what the drought monitor really covers. But there’s also a deep subsoil lack of moisture, that has been in place for a long time. That’s a long-term drought. I met up with some great climate experts this week and they shared the same outlook. State Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld said some of these deep soil moisture levels are really indicative of long-range drought, and of course that’s not great for late-in-the-season farming when roots have extended farther down to grasp onto water.

The rest of Thursday is sunny but still on the cooler side. Another small system, a summery Alberta clipper, comes in for Friday. Rain then largely trends to our southwest on Saturday and Sunday with an active and cooler rain pattern ahead.

Mild Thursday night, rain potential Friday

We have quite the puffy cumulus cloud field across Minnesota. That’s a sign of weak convection with colder air aloft. Temperatures are just a smidgen below normal for this time of the year, but this is a blue-ribbon winner day to get outside and knock some chores out.

Thursday night, we’re pretty mild and typical for this stage of later June.

One thing that is not typical is the mosquito count. According to the local mosquito authorities, the last survey showed about seven times fewer mosquitoes than we’d normally have around this time of the year. That means the weather is even nicer with fewer bugs!

The overall weather pattern is indicative of Alberta clipper season.

Another clipper rolls in on Friday morning for northwestern Minnesota, including Fargo-Moorhead and Roseau. The best overall chance for thunderstorms Friday is over the northern half of Minnesota, although some general showers could reach the Twin Cities.

This is some much-needed rain in the forecast for the Brainerd and Bemidji areas, which went further into a drought in the newest drought conditions update released on Thursday.

Weekend highs in the 70s

From a high near 70 degrees on Friday, we’ll climb basically 1 or 2 degrees each subsequent day. That means we’re around 71 degrees on Saturday, 72 on Sunday, 73 on Monday, 75 on Tuesday, or very close thereabouts.

Almost all of the state is dry Saturday. Most of the rain Saturday to Monday will be close to or south of Interstate 90. The forecast still looks pretty active for rain on Tuesday through Thursday next week.

A brand new 90-day outlook was also just released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. It shows the impact of El Niño from July to September.

We could be a little drier than average in northern Minnesota. Our team thinks this will be another warmer-than-normal summer, despite what the Climate Prediction Center map suggests.

We’re in a sort of every-other-day pattern, meaning Thursday is another mostly dry day after Wednesday’s rains. It will still be on the cool side of normal. Thunder is possible again Friday.

Brighter, mainly dry Thursday; spotty thunder returns Friday

Decreasing clouds after Wednesday’s rainfall will lead to brighter skies Thursday and warm things up. It will still be cooler than normal, however, with highs ranging from the low 70s south to the low 60s north.

Those readings are about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal still. Normal highs in the Twin Cities should be around 80 degrees for mid-June with a standard deviation of about plus or minus 7 degrees.

Friday will be a few degrees warmer with potentially 80-degree readings reaching the southwestern corner of the state. Far northern Minnesota will likely remain in the mid to upper 60s for afternoon highs.

Friday will also bring the next chance of at least some spotty showers and thunderstorms. This next disturbance doesn’t look to be as vigorous with as much widespread rainfall as Wednesday’s system.

There’s a low chance of some severe weather even on Friday. A couple of thunderstorms could produce some brief severe wind gusts and large hail late Friday afternoon and evening. A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) is forecast for Friday:

Saturday should again be mostly dry with highs in the 70s across most of Minnesota. Sunday, too, should see highs mainly in the 70s.

We could see another disturbance graze southern Minnesota with some showers and thunderstorms for Father’s Day.

Temperatures should continue a slow trend upward toward normal, reaching the 80s by the middle or later part of next week.

Scattered storms and a brief severe risk are possible Wednesday in southern Minnesota, followed by cooler, unsettled weather through the week.

Needed rain, severe storm potential

Some of you may be thinking: rain rain, go away! We’re almost to July but temperatures have been more along an April trend as of late.

That said, we really need the rain in some parts of the state and more is coming for some areas through Wednesday night. There is also a brief window for severe storms in southeastern Minnesota for cities including Austin, Rochester and up to the Twin Cities.

Hail is the biggest severe threat through Wednesday afternoon. The strong updrafts and lower freezing levels are a rough recipe if there is any better instability out there south of Minneapolis and St. Paul before dusk.

There will also be torrential downpours and thus some traffic snags through the afternoon drive home from work.

There is also a severe thunderstorm watch listed for the southern end of the Twin Cities, southward toward Owatonna, Rochester and Red Wing. Later Wednesday night we could start to see some fog forming.

By Thursday, a few lingering wraparound showers may persist, but widespread rainfall is not expected. Beyond that, the overall weather pattern remains somewhat unsettled through the weekend as the upper-level trough remains parked over the region.

Confidence in the forecast decreases later in the week with weather models showing differing solutions regarding additional rain chances. For now, expect periodic opportunities for showers mixed with extended dry periods.

Temperatures will remain comfortably cool for mid-June, with highs generally holding in the low to mid-70s through the end of the week and into the weekend. Into next week, there are now higher signs of downpours on Tuesday and Wednesday.

A severe weather threat exists across southeastern Minnesota Wednesday afternoon and evening as our next disturbance moves through the Upper Midwest.

Severe weather threat develops

The latest analysis shows a surface low tracking across southern Minnesota, bringing the threat for some strong to severe storms Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours.

Areas that see breaks of sunshine Wednesday afternoon will have the greatest potential for strong to severe thunderstorm development. The main threats include large hail, damaging wind gusts and the possibility of a few tornadoes.

Any storm will also be capable of producing brief downpours, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center has placed southeastern Minnesota under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening, including the communities of Albert Lea, Austin, Faribault and Rochester.

The highest chance for severe weather will be from midafternoon through early evening Wednesday with storms potentially developing and strengthening quickly during that time.

We have an unsettled Wednesday with occasional scattered showers and storms. Thursday will be mainly dry before another disturbance moves in Friday. Temperatures will remain cool.

Rainy, stormy Wednesday; mostly dry Thursday

We have another disturbance rotating around an upper-low centered to our north, just south of Hudson Bay. It will make for an unsettled Wednesday with occasional scattered showers and thunderstorms.

There will be some peeks of midday sun in southern Minnesota before more thunderstorms develop.

Storms that do pop in southern Minnesota could turn strong or severe in some isolated cases. There’s a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms for far southern Minnesota.

Portions of east-central Minnesota into Wisconsin could see up to 1 inch of rainfall with locally higher amounts. While most of the state will see rainfall, the heaviest rains will largely miss most of the drought areas. I’ve circled the main drought regions in the forecast rainfall below:

There’s also a wind advisory for southwestern Minnesota where winds will blow at 15 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

Afternoon highs will be mostly in the 70s and 60s due to the clouds and occasional rain.

Thursday should be mostly dry with any lingering shower and clouds moving out in the morning. Temperatures will once again be cooler than normal, ranging from the low to mid-70s south to the 60s north.

Another disturbance swings in for Friday. That will touch off more, at least, spotty showers and storms Friday afternoon and evening.

The weekend is looking decent with just isolated chance of showers or thunder and temperatures still slightly below normal, mostly in the 70s.

Lingering showers and clouds will move out Tuesday morning, but more rain and thunder will develop for Wednesday and potentially this weekend. Temperatures will be cooler than normal, too.

Cool, unsettled pattern with a few chances of rain, thunder

Lingering showers will move out Tuesday morning and clouds will decrease, giving way to some midday and afternoon sun. Clouds will already increase again toward Tuesday evening ahead of the next system.

Afternoon high temperatures will range from the mid-70s south to the 60s north, a bit cooler than normal. It will be pretty breezy with northwest winds at 10-20 mph.

The next round of rain arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms from a clipper-type system moving in, rotating around a cool upper low to our north near Hudson Bay. Showers will already reach western Minnesota Tuesday evening and track east overnight into the day Wednesday. Thunderstorms will develop in southern Minnesota midday into the afternoon as sunshine peeks out.

We could see some decent rainfall across central Minnesota into Wisconsin. Unfortunately it looks like the more significant rainfall amounts will fall outside of our main drought areas in the state.

With a little sunshine Wednesday we could even see isolated strong or severe thunderstorms in southern Minnesota. There’s a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms in far southern Minnesota Wednesday.

Thursday should be mainly dry again with decreasing clouds but another disturbance moves in for Friday touching off yet more scattered showers and thunderstorms. That may make way for a mostly dry and pleasant weekend. Some isolated showers still look possible with highs mostly in the 70s but the weekend forecast appears to be improving.

A powerful June low-pressure bull’s-eye brewing in the Sierra rolls into the Upper Midwest fully by Wednesday. Your ears might pop this week, and you may feel a little more joint pain. That pressure drop — and its needed rain — will be really noticeable starting later Monday.

On-off rain

Rain is starting to descend into northern Minnesota early Monday afternoon, moving toward the Interstate 94 and Interstate 90 corridors before dusk Monday. We started with chilly sunshine but we’re moving toward mild lighter rain in the same day.

The rain comes from a short wave pinwheeling from Alberta. Because it’s a continental air mass, it’s a little starved of moisture. We aren’t going to get a tremendous amount of rain amounts this time, but it’s helpful in easing the widespread drought forming over Minnesota.

Not that the rain will be warm, but the clouds will keep us a little more moderate overnight into early Tuesday. Expect lows in northern Minnesota to touch the middle to upper 40s with lower to middle 50s in the south.

The rain is off and on through the Tuesday morning commute especially for southern Minnesota, although it tapers off before dawn in the north of the state.

Soaking rain Wednesday

The next rain shield comes in early Wednesday, from the powerhouse low.

Thanks to Daniel from Praedictix Weather, who tracked down a really cool weather chart, we know the lowest recorded pressure in central Minnesota in June was 984.4 millibars. We’ll be pretty darn close to the record from 19 years ago.

What does that mean for you? Well, mostly rain but you’ll certainly feel the stormy weather.

Even though the I-94 region gets some soaking rain through late Wednesday, the two areas of Minnesota that need rain the most are not likely receive much.

Far southwestern Minnesota gets almost nothing on the newest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration model data. The Arrowhead region — where we’ve had all those red flag warnings lately — similarly gets very little rain.

Thursday and Friday may have a few raindrops but are much drier days statewide.

Almost all of Minnesota will have below-average temperatures through the workweek but the weekend is a little warmer. We’re still behind the pace of last week’s upper 80s but it’s at least a little more mild for your lake plans this weekend.

After a breezy and pleasant weekend, a cooler weather pattern is expected to settle in across the region for much of the upcoming week.

While temperatures will remain comfortable, several opportunities for rainfall are on the horizon with the most widespread and impactful chance arriving during the middle of the week.

Warm Monday with cooler weather, shower chances to follow

Monday looks to be the warmest day of the week with afternoon highs climbing into the lower to upper 70s. That's pretty close to normal for mid-June, but don't get too attached to it. Cooler-than-average temperatures are set to stick around for much of the week.

The first weather maker arrives Monday afternoon. Expect scattered showers to develop across northwestern and central Minnesota before gradually spreading southeast toward the Twin Cities by early evening.

A few isolated thunderstorms may join the party but severe weather isn't expected.

Some showers could linger into Tuesday morning, especially across western Wisconsin, before taking a break during the day on Tuesday.

Tuesday will offer a pleasant break between weather systems, with plenty of sunshine expected across the region. Temperatures will remain on the cool side, ranging from the mid to upper 60s across northern Minnesota to the mid-70s farther south.

Another round of rain is expected to move in Tuesday night and continue into Wednesday. This system looks organized enough to bring widespread rainfall to much of the region, with the best chances generally in central and southern Minnesota.

Many locations could pick up one-quarter to one-half inch of rain as the system moves through on Wednesday.

While most of the precipitation is expected to fall as steady rain, a stray thunderstorm can't be completely ruled out. Any thunderstorms that do develop could produce locally higher rainfall totals, leading to isolated areas receiving more than one-half inch.

As for the second half of the week and the upcoming weekend, confidence starts to fade a bit. Forecast models agree that another weather system may pass through around Friday, but the timing and rainfall amounts become much less certain after that.

In other words, don't cancel outdoor plans just yet, but keep an eye on the forecast for updates.

After a cool and quiet start to the week, several opportunities for rainfall will enter the forecast over the next few days as a series of disturbances move through the Upper Midwest.

Quiet, cool night with clear skies

Dry air pushing in from the northwest has cleared out any sign of clouds, and our breezy northwest winds will become light and shift to the west Sunday night.

Temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to low 50s under clear skies.

Our next weather-maker arrives Monday afternoon as a weak upper-level disturbance moves through the region. This system will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, especially across central, northern Minnesota and areas north of the Twin Cities.

Drier air in place will limit rainfall amounts and help keep the severe weather threat low. Any showers or storms that develop should diminish quickly Monday night as the disturbance exits the area.

Wednesday remains our best opportunity for widespread rainfall across the region. A stronger upper-level disturbance will help develop a surface low over the Dakotas before pushing eastward into Minnesota and Wisconsin throughout the day. Showers are expected to become more widespread, with most locations receiving between a quarter and a half inch of rainfall.

The stretch of cooler-than-average weather will continue through the upcoming week, with afternoon highs generally ranging from the 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows in the 50s.

Looking ahead, longer-range forecast guidance remains remarkably consistent in maintaining this cooler pattern through the end of the month.

High pressure remains in control for Sunday, bringing dry conditions and plenty of sunshine. Gusty northwest winds will develop once again and temperatures will be similar to Saturday, making for another enjoyable June day.

Quiet and dry to end the weekend

It’s a brisk but cooler end to the weekend with high temperatures on Sunday, warming into the upper 60s north to low 70s in southern Minnesota.

Northwest winds will continue around 10-20 mph throughout the day, diminishing after sunset.

There’s a brief warm-up on Monday as temperatures climb slightly, with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 70s as winds shift from northwesterly to more westerly.

This change in flow is associated with a passing upper-level disturbance that will bring the first chance of rain to the area late Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning.

However, dry air in the lower atmosphere may limit how much rainfall actually reaches the ground. While a few showers are expected, some precipitation could evaporate before reaching the surface.

The most favorable opportunity for widespread rainfall looks to be Wednesday into Thursday. This system will have more moisture to work with, though forecast models continue to vary somewhat on the timing of its arrival and departure.

Cooler temperatures are expected to stick around through the week and possibly into the second half of the month. Forecast models currently show no strong signals for a significant warm-up. Instead, we may end up balancing out the very warm start to June with cooler, more seasonable temperatures.

If you're looking for a classic Minnesota summer evening, Saturday night may be hard to beat, so gather around the fire and get those s'mores ready.

Refreshingly perfect evening

Summer doesn't often give us evenings like this. One of my favorite summertime activities is sitting around a bonfire, and tonight's weather looks nearly perfect for it.

After a breezy and cool Saturday, winds will gradually diminish this evening as high pressure settles across the Upper Midwest. Combined with clearing skies and comfortable temperatures, conditions are shaping up for an excellent night outdoors.

Overnight lows will fall into the 40s across northern Minnesota and the 50s farther south, bringing a refreshing feel that's more reminiscent of late summer or even early fall than mid-June. The cooler air, low humidity, and lighter winds should make for ideal conditions to enjoy a backyard bonfire or simply leave the windows open and enjoy the fresh air overnight.

Adding to the good news, recent rainfall has kept our fire danger low across much of Minnesota.

Sunday will bring another pleasant day with plenty of sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures, although northwest winds will become a bit breezy again during the afternoon.

Bonfire weather is on the menu tonight, so don't forget the marshmallows!

After a stretch of warmer weather, a cooler and drier air mass has settled across Minnesota for this weekend. Temperatures will remain below normal through much of next week, while several opportunities for rainfall return to the forecast.

Breezy, refreshing weekend

A cold front continues to push south and east across the region Saturday. While most locations have already seen the front pass through, portions of southern Minnesota may still experience some thundershowers. By Saturday night, the front will be completely east of the area.

Behind the front, noticeably cooler air will overspread the region. High temperatures Saturday will range from the mid-60s to mid-70s, several degrees below mid-June averages, which are typically in the upper 70s.

Gusty northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph will add to the cooler feel throughout the day.

A few precipitation chances will linger early Saturday as the cold front continues to move through the region. Across northeastern Minnesota, moisture will be limited, but a few isolated sprinkles or brief light showers remain possible during the morning hours.

Farther south, closer to the front itself, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may develop across extreme southern Minnesota, primarily south of the Interstate 90 corridor.

By Saturday evening, the front will have pushed south of the area, allowing dry and cooler conditions to settle in for the remainder of the weekend.

Sundays highs range from the mid-to-upper 60s across northern areas to the lower 70s farther south. Breezy conditions will persist through the remainder of the weekend as northwest winds continue to gust throughout the day.

The quiet weather pattern this weekend will give way to a more active setup next week. The Upper Midwest is expected to remain under northwest flow aloft, allowing several weak disturbances, or shortwaves, to move through the region. While the deep moisture will remain to our south, each of these disturbances may be capable of producing scattered showers, resulting in several opportunities for light rainfall throughout the week.

At this time, widespread or prolonged rainfall does not appear likely, but periodic chances for passing showers will persist.

The persistent northwest flow pattern will also help maintain below-normal temperatures through much of the upcoming week. Highs are expected to remain cooler than average.

Well, gang, we’ve made it through another workweek. Minnesota had high heat, damaging hail, helpful rain (even with drought’s expansion), and now, cooler weather. Rain returns later Friday night into very early Saturday, but its impact remains fairly low. Friday’s blue skies and high winds fade into the weekend and heavier rain returns by next Wednesday. There is no immediate, big, signal for severe weather as we near the yearly ‘peak’ for severe chances across the state.

Friday kicked off with blue skies over most of the state. Now, the puffy cumulus clouds are rolling in, ahead of tonight’s short wave system. The air way above our heads is really cold by June standards. That could mean some rain showers actually produce small hail, even though this is not the biggest severe setup ever. The rain is in the Interstate 90 (and north about 50 miles) corridor after 7:00 p.m. A couple tenths of an inch would be great for gardens, but some will have a lot lighter amounts. Saturday starts off with a hint of fog in places, soon to be blown away by some gusty winds.

From there, the weekend is a blue ribbon winner at the State Fair. We have sunshine and temperatures that are actually colder-than-normal. We’re not exactly in sweater weather but some may be a little chilly on the North Shore or at the cabins. The next minute chance of rain is late Monday night into early Tuesday, with some isolated thunderstorms during the overnight hours.

Starting on Wednesday, our pattern flips again. Right now, we’re mostly nice apart from some hints of night-time rain. But on Wednesday, a Rocky Mountain High forms near Denver. I know, I know: we all have the John Denver song in our heads now! That high creates a big northwest flow, where some moisture swerves down from Alberta. On Wednesday, we have a chance at some good soaking rain, though the timing is still a little bit in flux. The newest data tries to move the system a little bit earlier, just something to keep in mind.

For me, the next compelling weather setup - for potentially active storms, in at least parts of Minnesota - is next Saturday in the I-90 corridor of southern MN. Above are two examples of what storms could look like then.

NOAA's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Climate Prediction Center announced that El Niño conditions have developed across the tropical Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen through the upcoming winter of 2026-27.

El Niño officially returns

The climate pattern known as El Niño has officially returned according to NOAA.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than average for an extended period. It is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring cycle that influences weather patterns around the globe.

The latest El Niño /southern oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion announced that El Niño conditions have developed across the tropical Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen through the upcoming winter of 2026-27.

Over the past month, sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean have warmed above average, crossing the threshold that meteorologists use to declare El Niño conditions.

What has really caught our attention is the potential magnitude of the event. NOAA currently estimates a 63% probability that El Niño reaches "very strong" status during the November-January period.

Meteorologists classify El Niño events into four main categories based on how much warmer than average the waters of the central tropical Pacific become: weak, moderate, strong, and very strong.

You may also hear the term “Super El Niño” thrown around in the news, but that’s not an official category. It’s simply a media nickname often used to describe the most intense El Niño events.

This event could rank among the strongest El Niño episodes in the historical record dating back to 1950. The 2015–2016 El Niño was a particularly strong event, and maps of sea surface temperature anomalies from that winter show a clear signal of very strong warming across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

It’s important to remember that a stronger El Niño doesn’t guarantee specific weather impacts everywhere. Instead, it makes the usual El Niño patterns more likely and often more noticeable. In simple terms, the stronger the event, the more it tends to influence weather patterns around the world.

If we take a look at the latest forecast guidance for December through February, a few classic El Niño signals are already starting to show up.

The CFSv2 (Climate Forecast System Version 2) seasonal precipitation outlook leans toward wetter-than-average conditions across much of the Southwest, Gulf Coast, and the southern tier of the United States. At the same time, it favors drier-than-average conditions across portions of the Pacific Northwest and parts of the northern tier.

That’s a pretty textbook El Niño precipitation pattern.

Of course, it's important to remember that this is a seasonal outlook, not a forecast for every storm between now and February. Think of it as a look at the bigger picture rather than the day-to-day details.

Not every storm will follow the typical El Niño playbook, and some areas may end up wetter or drier than forecast. But when we zoom out and look at the overall pattern, the guidance is showing exactly what we'd expect to see from a strengthening El Niño as we head into winter.

Where do we go from here?

Now that El Niño is officially in place, the big question is just how strong it becomes over the next several months. Right now, all signs point toward continued strengthening through late summer, fall, and into the winter of 2026-27. If the current forecasts hold, we could be looking at one of the strongest El Niño events we've seen in decades.

The next ENSO diagnostics discussion from NOAA is scheduled for July 9, and it will give us our next official look at how this event is evolving.

For now, the takeaway is pretty straightforward: El Niño has arrived, and the odds favor a stronger event as we head toward winter.

Friday will be warmer and brighter with highs back closer to normal for most. Cooler air moves in Friday night and persists into next week. That will keep most significant moisture south, too.

A cooler pattern overall ahead with a lack of widespread storms

After a cloudy, showery day Thursday, sunshine is back Friday for most of the day. We’ll see highs in the low to mid-80s southwest to just 60s north where there will be more clouds and some spotty showers. It will also become pretty breezy with west winds 10 to 20 mph.

A few showers or a thunderstorm will be possible north and in central Minnesota by the evening as a frontal boundary moves in. A cool front overnight will also touch off a few showers into early Saturday.

Highs Saturday and Sunday will be just in the low to mid-70s south with 60s north. Those readings are a few degrees cooler than normal.

Lows Saturday and Sunday nights will be quite cool ranging from near 40 degrees on the Iron Range to just 50 south.

The overall cooler pattern persists into most of next week. Temperatures will average about 4 to 8 degrees cooler than normal. That will keep most 80-degree readings and muggy dew points south of Minnesota.

That also means it will be pretty dry overall with just a couple modest shower chances next week, likely worsening drought conditions in parts of the state. The next best chance at showers or some thunder will come Monday night into Tuesday and Wednesday.

Total rainfall, however, will not be particularly significant due to the lack of real muggy air and instability. Most rainfall totals over the next seven days will be less than one-half inch.

Temperatures should be back up to near 80 degrees by late next week into next weekend for central and southern Minnesota.

Some cooler showers are likely on Thursday, but we’ll dry out Friday and Sunday. Below normal temperatures are here the next few days.

We’re posting this version of Updraft in the wake of several rounds of severe weather. Now, we’re primed for a few more showers — and even thunderstorms — into Thursday. Initially, I really thought fog would be a problem Thursday morning, but the newest data has fog mostly forming over Superior, not the rest of Minnesota.

There will also likely be a few rumbles of thunder in the southern end of the Twin Cities metro area Thursday, with perhaps a couple of stronger thunderstorms in the far southeastern corner of Minnesota.

Rain will be off-and-on during a cooler Thursday, in the mid-70s around the Interstate 35 and Interstate 94 corridors as opposed to near 90 degrees like we’ve had the last few days. Then, how do some overnight temperatures in the 50s sound for the middle of June?

For Friday, a short wave rolls into far northern Minnesota, near Roseau and the Boundary Waters, over to Grand Marais. A few showers are possible, but the rest of the state should be all dry.

Very early Saturday morning, a few heavier showers will try to move through southern Minnesota. Those rain showers show up on both the American and European forecast models.

If you look only at what the computers spit out for Sunday, you might think there will be some rain. Right now, we think the model guidance is too aggressive and that Sunday will be dry and sun-filled across Minnesota.

Some isolated chances of rain are back overnight Monday into Tuesday, but this is another really in-and-out deal to help your fields and lawns.

Many longer range maps have some serious downpours later Wednesday next week, although the actual plots for rain appear a little less heavy.

Be on the lookout: Thursday brings our next drought update and we’ll have you covered on Morning Edition and All Things Considered. Quick note that Wednesday and Thursday’s rains will NOT count toward helping this week’s drought.

Minnesota's drought situation took a major step backward this week. Severe drought expanded from just 1 percent of the state to nearly 10 percent. And first area of extreme drought appeared in Minnesota since March 2024.

A sharp week-to-week deterioration

Our latest drought monitor highlights a concentrated area of severe drought across portions of central Minnesota, including Cass, Hubbard, Wadena, western Itasca, and northern Crow Wing and Aitkin counties. Another area of severe drought is present in southwestern Minnesota, encompassing portions of Rock, Pipestone and Lincoln counties.

Severe drought has expanded dramatically over the past week, now covering nearly 10 percent of the state compared to just 1.2 percent a week ago. Additional drought concerns continue to develop across southwestern Minnesota, where the state's first area of extreme drought has emerged since March 2024.

More than 75 percent of Minnesota is now classified as at least "abnormally dry", while just more than 32 percent of the state is experiencing moderate drought.

The deterioration comes despite some scattered rainfall during the past week. A look at seven-day precipitation totals show much of central and southern Minnesota received only 0.25 to 1.5 inches of rain, with some drought-stricken areas missing out on the heaviest precipitation altogether.

June is typically Minnesota's wettest month of the year, and many locations need to average more than 1 inch of rainfall per week just to keep pace with normal precipitation.

While localized pockets picked up more substantial rainfall, the coverage was too limited and uneven to provide meaningful relief from the ongoing drought.

Unfortunately, forecast guidance suggests widespread improvement may not arrive anytime soon.

The latest European AI Forecast System ensemble shows below-normal precipitation across nearly the entire Upper Midwest through June 22.

Much of Minnesota is forecast to receive between one-half and one and one-quarter inches less precipitation than normal over the next 10 days, with some of the largest deficits centered across southern and western portions of the state.

Cooler, less humid air has settled in. We’ll see some scattered rain showers Thursday. More cool air moves in for the weekend.

Some more rain showers Thursday and a cooler pattern ahead

We have a cooler and less humid air mass in the wake of Wednesday evening’s cool front. High temperatures Thursday will range from just the 60s north to the low to mid-70s south, a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Wednesday for most.

Thursday, however, will not be completely dry. We have another round of scattered showers moving in from southwest to northeast through the day delivering some additional, needed rainfall.

Most of the showers will be plain old rain but there could be some garden variety thundershowers too. Severe weather is not expected.

Rainfall will be relatively modest with most picking up one-tenth to one-half inch across southern Minnesota. Portions of far southeastern Minnesota may receive an inch or more.

Brighter skies return for Friday. Temperatures will be a little warmer as a result, but it will still be comfortable with dew points mostly in the 50s and 40s. Afternoon highs will range from the mid-80s in southwestern Minnesota to the upper 60s north.

Another blast of cool air moves in Friday night. It will touch off a few mostly overnight showers.

The weekend will be pretty pleasant but cooler by Sunday and Monday. Highs Saturday will be mainly in the 60s and 70s; Sunday will bring highs mostly in the 60s and low 70s.

The cooler pattern overall persists into the middle of next week. We should see highs back in the 80s by late next week.

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for northern Minnesota until 8 p.m. Wednesday with the potential for very large hail, damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Minnesota

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 800 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected to increase along and ahead of a cold front moving through northern Minnesota this afternoon. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate shear will support the potential for strong updrafts capable of large to isolated very large hail. A few strong gusts are possible as well.

Stay up to date on the latest severe weather forecasts and alerts at MPRNews.org or the Updraft blog.

A second round of storms will develop for the afternoon and evening. Those storms could be strong to severe. Cooler, drier air moves in Wednesday night for the rest of the week.

Another round of potentially severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening, then cooler Thursday

A severe thunderstorm watch is posted for portions of eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin through 7 p.m. Wednesday.

There were some incredible severe wind gusts earlier in western Minnesota from round one of severe storms.

• WIND REPORTS: 83 mph Marietta (1:15 AM), 78 mph Madison, 74 mph Glenwood (2:15 AM), 72 mph Choke, 66 mph Benson, 64 mph Alexandria (2:19 AM), 62 mph Parkers Prairie, 60 mph Morris.

A downburst developed right around 3 a.m. early Wednesday morning in the Twin Cities and pushed through Saint Paul, downing trees.

You can see on the radar’s velocity the downburst develop. The Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport clocked a 61 mph wind gust. Those winds continued into Saint Paul and Roseville.

It’s steamy again today with temps warming into the 80s to near 90-degrees along with very high dew points in the 70s. All of that heat and moisture will add energy to the atmosphere.

There’s an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) of severe storms for Wednesday afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin. All hazards are possible including isolated tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.

With a super-charged atmosphere and an advancing cool front, we’ll look for storms to fire up in far eastern portions of the state near and east of I-35, moving into Wisconsin Wednesday afternoon and evening into the overnight hours.

Behind the cool front, dew points will drop Wednesday night into Thursday and remain comfortable into the weekend and early next week.

Highs Thursday will be just in the 70s across the state with just upper 60s even in far northwest Minnesota.

We’ll also see more beneficial rain showers from an upper level disturbance swinging in from the west. No severe weather is expected Thursday and we’ll probably see little in the way of thunder.

Another shot of cool air moves in Friday night into Saturday. Highs Sunday and Monday will range from just the low to mid-70s south to 60s in northern Minnesota.

The fog broke, the sunshine emerged, and we’re off to the 90s for one of the first times this year. The big story is still the two rounds of severe weather happening across Minnesota on Wednesday. Following those storms, we get a pretty intense cool-down by summer standards. That comes with some regular rain showers Thursday followed by a more tranquil stretch.

We have a Heat Advisory and Dense Fog Advisory in place, both nearby in northern Minnesota, plus and Air Quality Alert for a ‘code orange’ in Tuesday’s heat. Can’t remember the last time – if ever – I’ve seen all three of those in the same state at once. For most of Minnesota’s acres, we’ve got intense sunshine and highs reaching for 90 degrees. That will lead to higher ozone levels, plus the heat index is going to be in the lower 90s for several hours Tuesday afternoon. While it is possible that a few showers form in the southwest corner of the state, it’s fairly unlikely.

Onto the main event of the forecast: two rounds of potentially-damaging severe storms on Wednesday. The good news is that the timing is consistent run to run – on our computer tools. We don’t want to be doing the ‘windshield wiper’ thing, where storms speed up or slowdown and it makes this confusing for everyone.

Midnight – 3:00 a.m. Wednesday: a severe line of thunderstorms rolls into the western side of Minnesota. This could be a couple hundred miles long squall line. Damaging winds, a couple of tornadoes, and large hail are all threats here.

3:00 a.m. – 6:00 a.m. Wednesday: the line, still strong-to-severe moves into St. Cloud, Rochester, Austin, the Twin Cities, and eventually Duluth. Most get heavy rain with this line. The storms are *mostly* wrapped up by the traditional morning commute in these cities BUT there will be places with standing water. May want to leave the house earlier!

6:00 a.m. - 8:00 a.m. Wednesday: Sven Sundgaard is on early Wednesday to walk you through the initial round’s exit to the east in Wisconsin and the Great Lakes. We expect slower morning commutes in eastern Minnesota, especially around the I-35 corridor.

8:00 a.m. – 2:00 p.m. Wednesday: Storms are gone and we’ll skyrocket up in temperatures as the sun emerges. We should end up feeling like the middle 90s, with dew points in the 70s in southern Minnesota, even up into the Twin Cities! Don’t forget to pack the rain jacket, but the sunshine won’t last much longer.

2:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m. Wednesday: storms re-fire in central Minnesota and these are more discrete supercells that turn into a bowing line. Straight line winds are the bigger issue here but these storms can also produce ping pong sized hail. Once again, expect a slower drive home and torrential downpours.

After that, there will be a few cooler rain showers on Thursday. Temps fall roughly 15 degrees from their peak levels earlier in the week. Locally, Friday-Sunday should be really nice. That said, there could be severe weather in southern Iowa on Saturday. ‘Tis the season for unsettled weather!

It’ll be hot and humid Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated thunder is possible Tuesday, but most will remain dry. Storms will be possible late Tuesday night, early Wednesday and then again later in the day Wednesday.

Tropical heat and humidity Tuesday and Wednesday with strong to severe storms Wednesday

Make a plan to stay cool Tuesday and Wednesday as we’ll have that combination of both heat and humidity. Dew points will be in the upper 60s and low 70s with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees in the Twin Cities. Low to mid-90s are possible west. We do have some morning fog and low cloud cover to burn through in eastern Minnesota which may prevent some of us from quite reaching 90-degrees in the eastern part of the state.

There’s also a heat advisory Tuesday afternoon for portions of northeast Minnesota.

An air quality alert is in effect from noon through 9 p.m. Tuesday for portions of central Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area for ground-level ozone.

Check the latest air quality conditions, alerts and forecasts here:

While an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out Tuesday, most of us will see partly cloudy skies and dry conditions midday into the afternoon. That will change Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Storms will develop in the Dakotas and track east. What’s left will reach eastern Minnesota early Wednesday.

The greatest severe threat will be west — closer to where storms initiate. There’s an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) and slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms in western Minnesota into early Wednesday.

It’ll be hot and humid again midday Wednesday, which will help to spawn more thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours across eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. These storms have a strong potential of becoming severe with all hazards possible: tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts. It’s looking increasingly likely in recent model trends that this second round of storms may initiate right on top of the Twin Cities or just south and east. This would then put the greatest severe threat mainly just southeast of the Twin Cities.

The enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms includes the Twin Cities however still into southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin for Wednesday afternoon and evening into the early overnight hours. Make sure to stay aware of the fluid situation and have a way to get weather alerts and warnings.

We’ll see a big drop in dew points Wednesday night into Thursday behind the cool front, making for much more comfortable conditions.

High Thursday will be just around 80 in southern Minnesota to near just 70 degrees north.

Another shot of cool air moves in for the weekend which will drop temperatures even more.