Politics are at work, given the election season.  Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker blames the economy and is downplaying his decision to raise fares over the past several years, and transit advocates are saying that the drop is due to large fare increases and service cuts (fewer routes).

It’s a finger-pointing situation I really hate, so I decided to go straight to the data, presented for you here to make up your own mind.

First, here’s data associated with Walker’s argument: that the declining economy explains the downturn in ridership.

Stats geeks will want to know that the correlation is indeed significant and negative. But taking a closer look at the data makes me wonder if unemployment really drives less ridership. Take a closer look at the graph. There’s a pesky outlier on the bottom right hand side of the graph. That’s the 8.5% unemployment rate in 2009, and it’s most likely skewing the correlation.

Translation: while there might be a relationship, Walker’s overemphasizing the impact of the economy on bus ridership. More on this point later in the post…

Next, take a look at the relationship between fare prices and ridership. Here, we’re testing the assertion that fare increases and service cuts lead to drops in ridership.

As evident from the graph, the relationship between fares and ridership is significant and negative. That is, as fares go up, less people decide to ride.

While both the economy and fares have a statistically significant relationship with how many people decide to ride the bus (even in the regression models I ran), if I had to bet on either I’d bet on fares as the major factor in play here.

Why fares? It’s because when you look at the historical data, there’s a massive spike in ridership in 1979 and 1980 (see graph below).

Remember in 1979 the Iranian Revolution led to an energy crisis and recession – high gas prices, long lines at gas stations, cats and dogs living together, etc. If Walker’s argument is correct, then bus ridership in 1979-80 should have dropped precipitously. Instead, during hard times, people turned to public transportation.

Today, during hard times, people might be using transit more if County government reduced fares.

Of course, this doesn’t mean we should slash prices either. If we look again at the graph with fare prices (the middle graph), it shows that there is an ideal price at which to charge riders, around $0.75-$1 (the point at which ridership peaked). In theory, this price should maximize ridership, and bring in additional revenue to the transit system to cover costs.

Bottom line: Walker has evidence to back up his bad economy claim, but he shouldn’t be ignoring the fact that fare prices have a more important relationship with ridership totals. In other words, Walker’s budgeting decisions have led to less ridership.

Guest post by: John Kovari

John Kovari is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and the 2008-2009 Norman N. Gill Fellow at the Public Policy Forum.  Additionally, he has served as a legislative assistant to city of Milwaukee Alderman Michael Murphy.

March 19, 2010

Zoning, Neighborhoods & Development Committee Meeting

March 19, 2010 9:00 am

The Zoning, Neighborhoods and Development Committee reviews issues relating to city development, zoning, historic preservation, incremental tax financing, building codes and housing projects.The Zoning, Neighborhoods and Development Committee meetings start at 9:00 a.m. and are held in the Room 301-B, City Hall, unless otherwise noted.[...]

Finance & Personnel Committee Meeting

March 19, 2010 1:30 pm

The Finance and Personnel Committee considers appropriations, finances, taxation, revenues, labor relations, personnel, pensions and other benefits, insurance, audits and city budget.The Finance and Personnel Committee meetings start at 1:30 p.m. and are held in the Room 301-B, City Hall, unless otherwise noted.[...]

Rendering along Thomas

Wednesday night the Greenwich Village Neighborhood Association held a meeting to discuss Mercy Housing Lakefront’s East Side apartment proposal.  Alderman Kovac started the meeting out explaining that “the process begins now,” but if this meeting was any indication then it was the end as this project was voted down by the neighborhood group.

Mercy Housing Lakefront attempted to explain that this is really workforce housing, not low-income housing.  Meaning that the vast majority of the units the household income levels could be as high as $45,000 a year.  Lisa Kuklinski, of Mercy Housing Lakefront, stated that, “this proposal is for workforce housing, not Section 8 housing, and that tax credit development “subsidizes the buildings, not the people.”  The building would have studio apartments starting at $325, and at the high-end three bedroom apartments which could rent for as much as $1,050 a month.  Of the 83 units only eight would target entry-level wage earners, essentially people making about $10 an-hour, eight would target retail managers-level wage earners, and 67 units could include experienced technicians at Columbia St. Mary, entry-level teachers, and entry-level police officers.

The building itself would have a masonry base, 2-story lobby on Farwell Ave., and would likely be LEED certified.  The building would contain 115 parking spots, 30 of which U.S. Bank will use during the day, and allow for public parking at night.  Further, the design would remove one curb-cut from the property, adding a couple additional on-street parking spots.  The building itself would top out at around 90 feet tall, somewhat taller than nearby medical office building at 70 feet.

Responding to questions regarding the impacts and benefits of the development David Lyon, regional director of housing development for Mercy Housing Lakefront, responded that the residents will be “living and spending their money” in the neighborhood.  He added that “we pay full boat property taxes,” and Lisa Kuklinski followed up with “where we are present, the neighborhood has improved.”  Additional, questions came up regarding the land sale process, the buildings height, parking, and traffic.

The group took an informal vote with the majority of the crowd voting against having the city continue on the path towards extending a purchase option.  The vote appears to have had the desired impact of stalling or halting the project as had the project been moving forward at this point it was to be on the agenda for the March 22nd City Plan Commission meeting.

Jackson Square Apartments

Jackson Square Apartments

Jackson Square Apartments

Jackson Square Apartments

If you drink, please think and don’t drive.

Kudos to MillerCoors, Milwaukee Irish Fest, and MCTS for continuing the excellent Miller Lite Free Rides partnership.

Part of this evolution is actually a strong athletic program.  Regardless if the emphasis on athletics at institutions of higher learn is good or not, it’s true.  The public face of a university is its athletic program.  When people think Ohio State they think football.  When people think North Carolina they think basketball.  Although UWM won’t realistically ever reach those lofty levels, athletics play a role, so much so that some schools have increased enrollment after NCAA Tourney appearances.  Simply, a successful athletic program could lead to more national recognition, increased alumni giving, increased exposure potential students, and in the long run help raise enrollment.

A first, albeit small step, in building a strong athletic program would be to return men’s basketball to campus by building a new on campus arena.  The construction of a new arena would send a clear signal that the school is committed to athletics, and strengthen the bond between school and student.  Just the ability for students to walk to the game, attend pep rallys, and events on campus will create a better student experience and lead to higher involvement.

Certainly, there are potential issues, such as the availability of land, how to fund the construction, the real or perceived issue of the lack of parking, and the U.S. Cellular Arena becoming even less utilzed.  But a growing UWM is good for all of Milwaukee and building a new on campus arena would be one, small step that UWM could take to continue growing.

Rendering looking NW on Farwell

Mercy Housing Lakefront, Inc., intends to construct a 9-story apartment building with 75 apartments and eight townhouses on the existing 13,400 square-foot, city-owned surface parking lot at the corner of N. Farwell Ave. and Thomas St.  Additionally, it will have 85 garage spaces for residents and 30 garage spaces for use by US Bank and the public, which would replace most of the surface parking removed for this development.

The $12.7 million project will be financed in part through federal housing tax credits from the Wisconsin Housing and Economic Development Administration (WHEDA).  The developer intends to reach an EBE participation level of 25% during construction of the project, and will  pursue LEED certification for the project.

Rendering along Thomas

It should be noted that this, is the first of a long process prior to the land sale and the City of Milwaukee has a extensive list of requirements prior to the final sale.  This list includes, DCD approval of final construction plans, evidence of financing, developer purchase of part of the US Bank parking lot, and the final building plans must be consistent with preliminary plans the developers submitted and conform to Detailed Planned Development zoning.  At this week’s Public Works Committee meeting, a file will be introduced that would authorize a purchase option on the city owned land contingent on these requirements.

Tom Daykin has more information.