Urbanomical

Ebay an old Friend?

2011-06-12T11:55:00.000-07:00

I recently read the 10-K of Ebay and had to take a double take, one number that really caught my eye (this was not a positive thing) was the near $6 billion in Goodwill for the 10-K dated 12-31-10. Wow, that is a lot of overpayment of assets, I'm curious though if this is a buy opportunity. My assumption is that a vast majority of this goodwill will come off the books after the Skype acquisition by MSFT ($8 billion btw is what Microsoft paid for Skype, wow). Yes, it is true that Skype was acquired by a private equity by the name of: Silver Lake Partners. How ever Ebay did retain 35% of the company which was sold off to Microsoft after they acquired the Skype service. This could mean 2.8 Billion could be coming Ebay's way which could either write down some of the goodwill on their books or could boost earnings for the next quarter. The question is what will Ebay do with the extra funds?

We could see some investment into what Ebay believe will be the future of the company. Paypal is the gold standard when it comes to b2b, b2c, c2c payment transactions and Ebay wants to verge more into this toll booth business and away from their auction services. From what I read the it sounds like Ebay wants to make Paypal 60% or their revenues. This is a good move but there is a lot of competition coming from other parties. Ebay could use the funds from the Skype sale and invest more into security, more vendor services, or fend off competition.

Google announced their new service payment service (basically in beta testing) which could eat into Paypal revenues. Granted Google will rely on banking institutions and credit companies (ala Mastercard and Visa) but if this catches on this could spell trouble for Paypal's online payment service. It looks like the big banks are attempting to get their hands on the mobile payment industry by rolling out their own paypal services. Chase quickpay services has been rumored to start rolling out soon which could propose a legitimate competitor to Paypal. Basically because of the fees becoming significantly lower than paypal's interchange fee.

The great concern I have for Paypal in the future is if these payment services catch on it could destroy Paypal. the brightspot about this is that Ebay is well aware and they disclose this on their annual 10-K. I very much appreciated the sincere concerns the 10-K talked about but the one thing I did take from the 10-K is that it will take a long time for the competition to catch up and the nice thing about Paypal is the liability for losses is low. I do believe that the "bill me later" transaction process is a bit of concern but I believe there is more control over the losses of this services amongst management.

I suggest if you do not want to invest a huge amount of cash into Ebay shares buy Oct 10 call options @ premium of $2.00 or less. This will hedge your bet if you do not feel confident about the future of Paypal not so much Ebay.

I do own positions in Ebay calls and stock...

Social Networking, the next hot investment hub

2011-01-24T21:15:00.000-08:00

Social Networking, investing in the hot tech sector

Coming into the 2011s a sector will be the next hot bed for stocks, in the 20s it was financials and industry, the 50s it was brands like Ford and IBM that led the economy, in the 90s the tech companies, the early 2000s it was real estate. As we go into the second year of this decade social networking is the industry everyone wants a piece of. Only problem is you have to be either a client of Goldman Sachs (alla Facebook) or on the inside via private/angel investors. I am going to take a look at some very familar companies that are defining the this industry. Companies that potentially could have a future IPO in the making, how ever only one is the safest bet at this stage of the game.

First off I'll start with Facebook, for those of you stuck under a rock the past decade facebook is the queen mother of the social networking industry. Started in 2004 inside the Harvard dorm room of Mark Zuckerberg, the company initially was a way for college co-eds to network within a cleaner version of myspace (I myself was skeptical how ever became addicted very quickly). Initially facebook was exclusive to college co-eds but a year later a high school version was implemented. Today the company has grown to have an estimated 550 million users worldwide, usage of the website is mostly for up to date news about your friends and friends' friends and their friends.

What differs facebook from other websites are its vast data about its users, facebook uses this data to drive ads (which is where their revenue is derived from) to a centralized group. For example, if you are a fan of say, Manny Pacquiao, as you surf through the facebook website advertisements of Manny Pacquiao related items will show from companies that advertise through facebook thus paying facebook each time your click on a related link (the system is called pay per click). It's a very streamlined income stream that works for both the users and the advertisers, it's also available to anyone and everyone for the right price. So companies as big as Apple can advertise to a specific fan base as well as small boutiques like "rps" a local sneaker shop in the Capitol Hill area of Seattle can advertise their goods.

Now to the good stuff, I read in a recent Wall Street Journal article that Goldman Sachs was offering private placement stock in the social networking giant. This raised issues with SEC on whether or not facebook could exist as a private company. So naturally questions came abound if a facebook IPO would be in the near future so I did some digging and found that currently it's estimated Facebook is valued as a 50 Billion dollar company. The growth potential has been staggering, from an initial report of 52 million in revenue in 2006 to most recently 2 Billion in 2010, wow. Did I also mention this company has 0 debt? Wow talk about our value company, and the way the numbers go it's still growing. Financial companies own pretty big stakes in the company, Accel Partners and Digital Sky Tech own a 10% stake each as well as MSFT and Inter-republic Group oh and big Goldman Sachs. Pretty alluring company to invest in eh? Well I disagree, facebook has definately layed the ground work for the industry but let's keep looking.

Twitter, the brain child of Jack Dorsey's implementation of SMS technology came during a brain storming session involving mexican food at playground. Orginally the technology was used within Dorsey's, company of employment, Odeo. Eventually the company broke off and became its own company and it caught very quickly. Twitter initially started with 52 million in venture capitalist funds, initially it was thought the company would participate in e-commerce how ever a structure similar to google adwords was implemented in early of 2010. Basically it works like, "promoted tweets", big companies such as: Starbucks, Sony, Redbull, and Best Buy are participating.

Revenues for Twitter are not nearly as big as facebook but are respectable. It was reported (but cannot be verified) that close to $6 million in 2009 with projections of 1.54 billion in revenue with 144 million of net income in 2013 the company reports the possibility of an ipo in 2013.

Twitter is great for anyone trying to reach a vast audience and the growing number of users is consistent how ever twitter does not have a specific revenue stream and their un-official numbers are not consistent with what potential this company has. Until they can replicate a consistent and clear cut revenue stream I would be weary about investing in an ipo here. The venture capitalists made their money here and will run.

GroupOn, what an amazing website, in tough times like today people are trying to find value in everything they do for leisure so when you can get a massage for 50% off from this website it's an amazing value. GroupOn hit the social networking scene in 2009 and growth has been white hot for this company. So hot that early in 2010 Google offered 6 billion for the website and what did GroupOn do? Rejected it, I believe GroupOn is still in the pre-mature stages of growth and only realizing its potential for more revenues. How ever let's look at what GroupOn Does for business.

GroupOn derives its income predominately from cutting a part of the revenues from their retailer affiliates. For example, ABC coffee shop will offer a coupon of $30.00 certificate for the price of $15.00. Groupon will take a percentage of the revenues as long as the coupon quota is met for that day. Deals are given out for specific regions, predominately in metro urban areas where mobile devices dominate (you won't find GroupOn deals in the middle of Novascotia). GroupOn employees some very savy creative staff to describe in a marketable fashion the deals given out each day. Companies range from small coffee shops to big retailers like GAP, so the list of companies is potentially endless.

Unfortunately I couldn't find any projection of revenues for this company how ever with the huge valuations given for GroupOn they have to be growing at an accelerating rate. GroupOn faces a major hurdle, copy cats, copy cats are clearly identified in Living Social, BuyWithMe, Groop Swoup, even Google is coming out with their own version of the site.One thing GroupOn does have is a clear dominance in this category of social networking.

Although GroupOn is off to a white hot start I belive there is just too much competition for them to really separate themselves from the pack, as of right now they have a leg up on the competition but so did yahoo.

Linkedin, this is the crown jewel of the crop, El majico, the king of social networking (investments wise) if you're gonna get in an IPO linkedin is my recommendation to put your chips on all the way. First a little bit of background of the company, Linkedin founded in 2002 by an ex Yahoo executive is the facebook of professional social networking. The way the website works is users upload their professional profile. What industries they are a part of, different job titles/careers, etc, from here it's as easy as facebook to professionally network with colleagues and see how professionally close you are to say that Senior Vice President at the new investment firm you would sell your first born to be a part of. It's a very un in your face way to network as well as find potential new employers.

Now let's take a look at the revenue stream, so obviously we're talking banner advertisements and your usual ppc/ppr deals yada yada you all know that. How ever what seperates Linkedin from say facebook, twitter, Groupon, etc is revenue straight from the users. Much like say espn.com insider users pay a premium for more precise services. So if you're a recruiter and want more in depth information on that potential job candidate you have to pay a service fee which could cost near $5K. Wow, "the most valuable commodity I know of is information" (Gordon Gecko-WallStreet), also your regular user that desires access to advanced networking has to pay monthly fees ranging from $24.95-$99.95/month. That is a serious revenue stream for the company that members will pay. The closest thing to that is Facebook's virtual currency which has not even come out to the public yet.

Now the valuation at this point is some 1.2 Billion (I found this number on the actual Linkedin website) for 2010, plus estimated revenues of 228 million. This is all estimated and not actual numbers for the company how ever with a growing number of people that are getting used to networking and are in search of work we could see revenues grow very quickly. This company has a solid revenue stream and the good news there is an anticipated 2011 IPO.

Tech may struggle (so far it has been about 50/50) but I believe there needs to be a push from social media and if any of these companies does come public this year I would put a big recommendation to Linkedin.

Tech stocks may struggle in 2011

2011-01-20T20:46:00.000-08:00

This week has been pretty brutal in regards to tech, the market leaders were slammed this week. AAPL, FFIV, GOOG, RVBD, INTC, and others may have a rough year going forward. AAPL had monster earnings this past quarter and despite that report the stock dropped 15 points off its 52 week high, of course this can be attributed to the news of Steve Jobs sudden medical leave announcement but we will have to see if investors come to their senses and buy the stock and sit on it until it hits 400 which it may by April. Now the reason I believe tech stocks will have meager earnings this year is simple, over valuation and the absence of social networking stocks.

We all know about the private placement of Facebook by Goldman Sach's which may ultimately force an ipo for the online behemoth but until then we won't have a) new breed of tech to lead us into the next decade from an investing stand point b) a sector that can ultimately spread positive earnings through out the tech industry much like how the above aforementioned have. Tech works in sync with each other much more than any other sector, the industry is so intrictly connected that if one company does sour it hurts the whole nasdaq.

Now touching on the over valuation, we have to leave established companies such as AAPL and GOOG out of this conversation but if we look at these stocks P/E ratios, just the slightest dip in expected earnings (which we saw with FFIV this past week) will crush the stock.

-FFIV p/e=58.68

-RVBD p/e=241

-AMZN p/e=73.70

-BIDU p/e=86.96

Those are just a few stocks which remind me of the over valued dotcom stocks of the late 2000s (read the intelligent investor it will blow your mind the valuation of these stocks). If these stocks report lack luster earnings they will refall I guarantee you which is exactly why I am straying away from these stocks. 2011 may prove that these stocks are over valued and a correction in tech may come a float. Touching on my earlier comment this could roll over into all of tech through out 2011, all I ask for is continued earnings at sustained growth.

AAPL/VZ and other musings for 2011

2011-01-08T10:26:00.000-08:00

Good Morning to my 2 or 3 followers, it's been a while since I have blogged about investments but shoot nobody is perfect, how was our 2010? Well, myself and a few friends did pretty well with $HWD, $AAPL, $ECPN, $CSTR, and $CIM adding to our future retirement and palatial palaces in Bora Bora (man I wish). So I start 2011 with some great news, you will see below, it's good stuff to look forward to, I wish you all luck and in your investing triumphs so let's go for 2011!! Keep on trading, no speculating :)

Finally, after all the speculation, complaints, waiting, and wondering VZ and AAPL will be introducing the brand new Iphone to VZ. This union is a long time coming and I cannot wait for the announcement on Tuesday, Jan 11, 2011, this is going to be huge. AAPL is expected to earn some 20 Billion in revenue at the end of the 4th quarter but this estimate was before the VZ iphone. I believe for 1st qtr 2011 we could see a 6 billion dollars in revenues for AAPL, because the much anticipated Ipad 2 as well as new adopters of the iphone verizon. Now if you're asking yourself whether to invest in VZ or AAPL obviously I'd take AAPL over VZ. VZ has a p/e of 230!!! That's a ridiculious valuation as opposed to AAPL's humble 22.19 p/e ratio, still not confident? Buy some AAPL 230 call options...they're currently trading near 24, we'll see what happens on Tuesday.

What's next for AAPL? Couldn't tell you but I am so confident in this stock that I'll accumulate at 320, that's if it drops that low...

As for the rest of 2011, I really do not see a bull market compared to last year. I definately see a DOW 12000 (granted I don't really use the DOW as a measure for stock performance) how ever I believe Dow 11,000 would be a safer haven for a fundamental stock market. There are just too many pressing issues that need to be resolved. We still have a high unemployment (near 9.0%) which according to Ben Bernanke will take a couple more years to get back to sustainable levels. Couple that with an uncertain real estate outlook and rising 10-year treasury rates we are still in for slow growth for 2011-12. Lower than expected retail levels from last month show the consumer agrees as well. If you are a long term investor look to tech, cloud computing is going to be key for the future and it's happening now. I like $CA as well as $AAPL and even $ORCL, these guys are going to be the leaders in cloud computing.

I like the guy with the classes pointing in the air, so serious...

IMAX-stock pick of 2010

2010-03-23T19:34:00.000-07:00

I personally have not scene Avatar or Alice in Wonderland but man did they make some money this past holiday/winter season. Alice in Wonderland had the biggest opening weekend for a

3-D movie ever and who was behind all this? IMAX, before hits like Avatar and Alice in Wonderland IMAX was known for their big educational movies involving dinosaurs, sharks, etc. Which in itself was a great market niche for the company but now there is a vast array of other movies that could really turn this company into a major player in the motion picture industry.

Let's first look at this company and see what makes it tick, well first off it's the one and only 3-d making movie company out there. Competitors include regal, cinemax, AMC, how ever the only reason they are competitors is because IMAX does have its own theaters but has since come together with its competitors and made their 3-D technology available to their movie theaters. It's a great move to get the mainstream audience to become adapted to 3-D entertainment. For just an extra $3.00 a customer can enjoy a good movie in 3-D which is a boon for the movie companies. Now a good story with 3-D graphics can become a box office hit as long as it's appealing to the 3-D eye.

Financially the company is pretty sound, it's trading at about 100 times earnings but the fact is that 2009 provided the first profit in nearly 3 years and 75% percent of the profits were made in the last quarter. About the same time Avatar came out, IMAX has had 2 back to back hits with Avatar and Alice and Wonderland leading to a 40% increase in revenue over the year. Now if you take into account the summer block busters coming out (Dreamworks movies, Hubble Telescope, Clash of the Titans, Iron Man 2) we could see 120% increase in revenue. Now I really do not think this is far fetched since a lot of people are enjoying this 3-D ride and forget the cost of buying a 3-D tv. Just spend the extra $3.00 and see a brand new movie on the big screen. That's a much better deal than spending $3,000.00 on brand new technology.

Some negatives about this company is the overall liabilities this company has. Short term debt has doubled since last year along with paid in additional capital. Return on equity is pretty low how ever these are all figures over 11 months (January to November). Earnings are not out yet for Imax's 1st qtr but I believe we could see near $.30/share for the 1st qtr. Which would really send IMAX stock high. If they can keep generating cash then their current liabilities will be an after thought.

So go see Avatar and Alice and Wonderland...oh and go buy IMAX too...it's a steal at $16.00

2010-02-03T19:12:00.001-08:00

What is hope? What is desire? What is passion? It's Manny, Manny Pacquiao, just voted the fighter of the DECADE makes him a legend in boxing and the national pride of the Philippines. His cult following is amazing, like a modern day Jesus people have heart attacks just watching his fights. I have even witnessed my own father jump 52 inches (well it was more like 25 inches) in the air celebrating one of his signature left hay makers at a dis-oriented Miguel Cotto. Yet he is still so humble and such a good person. Always wanting to help not only his fellow filipinos but anyone needing a helping hand. This act of courage inspired me and a few friends to develop a tee to acknowledge his legacy and to cheer him on come March 13, 2010 in the Big D. We came up with three different shirts here that are sure to sell out fast. visit us at: www.waraywear.bigcartel.com

Our first concept tee:

Our own rendition of Manny Pacquiao with a prayer for the Phenom

Our 2nd tee...

We wanted to showcase red here because red is a power color and Manny is powerful

Our 3rd tee

Gotta love Manny's hair and we do too...

So get your's today visit us at: www.waraywear.bigcartel.com and get free shipping until this Friday Feb 5, 2010. A portion of proceeds will go those to help the Haitian Relief Fund because we want to do something great for those in need. So get your Manny Movement Tee today...

Etrade Bankruptcy?

2009-11-22T20:17:00.000-08:00

Etrade- One of the survivors of the mortgage and financial meltdown has been a bit of a scary stock lately. A couple weeks ago we saw a shutdown of the stock taking it down to about $1.30/share when just in mid October we saw it hitting around $1.99. Wow well why is this happening? This is what I think, uncertainty towards bankruptcy!!! Investors are banking on the fact that Etrade will merge with one of the big houses. We are talking TD Ameritrade, Schwab, Scottrade...Etrade has grown at an amazing rate compared to the other houses. The baby talking campaign has done wonders for the company and they are spending tons on advertising for their product and it seems to be working. The bigger brokerage houses like this and feel that as opposed to advertising they should just gobble up Etrade and take on a huge group of customers.

So, what's the deal? Well, the fear about Etrade is that a bigger house will take up the brokerage business alone and leave the polluted toxic mortgage business alone. Which I believe is the reason the stock hit $1.30. There has been talk lately that TD Ameritrade's CEO is looking to acquire some brokerage house soon. So traders scooped up Etrade and drove the price 14% in one trading day. So much back and forth with this stock that it gives you a headache but I believe ultimately that Etrade as a whole will be acquired soon. On the flip side if we don't see Etrade acquired in the 2nd quarter of 2010. Watch out this company could hit $10 in a year or two, the company has stood pretty resilient since hitting their lows in March. But their one downfall is their Heloc portfolio is very messy, how ever they have been making strides to make these loans either write off their books or to get them taken care of. As far as I know at least.

So what do I see with Etrade? I really believe it has to do with the new CEO that will take over after December of this year. If we are looking at an acquisition type CEO well you can kiss Etrade good bye. How ever, if we are looking at a CEO that specializes in making strides in companies then the talking babies will be here to stay...

CSTR? ETFC?

2009-11-15T21:42:00.000-08:00

Well...here we go again...I am reco-ing two stocks for the next 3 months of the year. Our good old friend Coinstar and a heavy hitter E-trade...Now some background information about our two companies.

Coinstar- Leader in grocery store counting systems and the redbox kiosks you will see at your local grocery store or Wal-Mart. Coinstar establishes the kiosks at their own discretion which are placed at high traffic department stores and grocery stores. Essentially these machines have taken over for what Blockbuster provided. Basically you can look at them as a vending machine for movies. A great platform that seems to be working.

Etrade- One of the leaders of online discount brokerages and own one of the most infamous campaigns of baby talkers making trades using Etrade. Now Etrade was one of the few companies to dispel huge losses due to the credit crisis. Especially in distressed Heloc loans, so bad that instead of a 7 cent loss in their 3rd quarter earnings led to a 63 cent loss in earnings due to an increase in loan loss provisions. Regardless they are one of the fastest growing online traders as far as subscriber growth. As well as transactions with their account holders.

So why should you invest in these two companies, well there are two seperate reasons for each company. In regards to Coinstar they are high cash and high customer loyal. Granted Netflix has an incredibly huge inventory and a recurring customer base, Coinstar hits a different demographic that cannot afford a monthly subscription that Netflix institutes or $4.95 that comcast requires for a rental. $1.00 for a one night rental is an incredible value and not only does coinstar make money off the rentals but they also make money off the kiosks which they sell to the Targets, QFCs, and Wal-marts. The one thing that may get in Coinstar's way is management and licensing as of right now though it seems okay...Buy and hold for six months.

Now Etrade, an incredible obvious take over opportunity here. Etrade is trading at about $1.53 a share and is looking to have increasing profits quarter after quarter. The stock has been battered as of late believing that no one will acquire the company. Well, management looks to believe this is possible and Etrade's CEO is stepping down at the end of the year. There are rumors that Ameritrade may be acquiring the company which would be great for Ameritrade's market share in the financial services industry. The reason I like the stock is our friends at Goldman Sachs are offering a buy rating on the stock and a price target of $2.30 in qtr 1 2010. I believe in a buy and hold until first quarter 2010 and pray for a takeover soon...

The Essentials for Fall

2009-08-31T21:00:00.000-07:00

Fall is just around the corner (yeah I know this sucks dude) no more bbqs, no more shorts, no more whites, so that means to bold up your wardrobe. I decided this year to go with a lot of grey/brown combos, I dunno brown just speaks to to the more significant urban gentleman. Grey is just a great color that compliments it and combined you will look sharp, sharp like a knife? That was stupid...anyways here you go...

Let's start from the bottom to the top...first the shoe...

Here we have a slip on brown shoe...this shoe will look sharp with a pair of slacks (grey or blue or brown) and can also look fashionable with a pair of dark denim washed jeans. Plus I know how we like to get up late in the morning and not tie our shoes making slip ons a great way to get up and go to the office/bar/what ever for a quick dres up...

Next we go the pant, as I stated before I'm going with a grey pant reco this fall. Something about grey makes fall for me, grey goes welll with just about anything and it's a nice fall color. I see a lot of grey suits (which really are not my favorite) but I figured a grey pant is good enough for this fall. Pair up the grey pant with either a black/brown shoe and you are good to go.

Follow this up with a heavy fall shirt, I went with an easy white shirt and easy patterened design. Simple squares seem a relaxed look to me but make sure you find a heavier one for the cooler fall months. Who knows it might snow this October, please don't...You can either pair this up with jacket or not it depends on what you feel like.

Last but not least I'm going with something new this fall...a sport jacket to go along with our outfit. Now this brown casual one can enable your ipod to be listened to on those boring dates with out the other knowing. Haha...pretty clever, pair up this bad boy with some jeans and the brown shoes I showed you and you are ready for surfing on the internet at Starbucks or drinking martinis at our local oyster bar!!!

Investing for the summer of '09

2009-07-07T21:54:00.000-07:00

Do you see a theme here? Cash, invest your money in cash for the summer because it's as cloudy as a thick london fog for this summer. I honestly cannot say to put your cash into anything related to equities except of course...that is cash heavy companies. Jim Cramer's famous quote, "there's a bull market somewhere". Yeah it's true but I never take that guy's advice. My advice right now is to sell any equity stakes you have that have shown at least 10% positive gains and just wait until this summer is over. There is speculation that another simulus package will be implemented which could send the market into a panic. No one has any idea what could happen and we could see another February drop like we saw this summer.

Now if you are one of those people that cannot stand having cash burning a whole in your pocket...let's go with these guys...

ABT- It's a great dividend stock and is trading at about 45-47. Not too much volatility here and we have a company with some good cash.

Apple- Only buy this stock if it hits $125, the only factor that would cause this is market volatility. Apple could be on the acquisition train and they are sitting on $35 billion in cash. Wow

Wendy's/Arby's- Barron's has been recommending this stock and shoot I'll give it a thumbs up. People love these two old school fast food joints, I'll take some chili with cheese/onions.

Comcast- I have about 150 shares personally and I am down about a buck but I'm gonna stay with this company. Good balance sheet and retainment of customers, it's at about $13.20.

Holla for a dollar

Adam "Guerrilla Warfare" Morrison

2009-06-26T19:39:00.000-07:00

Adam Morrison, probably considered the reason...take that back the key to the Lakers winning the 2009 NBA Championship. Forget Kobe, forget Fish, forget Jack...It's all about "Guerrilla Warfare". Ever since he came over from Charlotte his "off court" magic has deemed him much respect from every laker from Kobe to Kareem to Magic Johnson. Most importantly Morrison has created an an uncanny relationship with Phil Jackson. It's rumored that Phil Jackson has asked management to offer Morrison a 10-year $150 million contract for "advisory servicers" to new meditation techniques and leadership exercises. Oh and did I mention Adam only takes Euros, this contract will not only guarantee another 10 straight championships but will solidify Adam's mark only the Laker franchise, not the city of LA, but the great state of California.

So much so that the Governator, Arnold S, is willing to give up his seat as governor to "guerrilla warfare" but don't worry Laker fans he's gonna stay and lead all Laker fans to multiple championships.

So to all you Zag fans and all you Bobcat fans and especially all you Laker fans. Do not worry because "guerilla warfare" (even though he doesn't suit up) is going to stay longer than expected. He's gonna sign the contract next year then we'll see when I'm right...so move over Paris Hilton and Britney Spears. Adam Morrison is here to stay

The Bravern in Bellevue this September

2009-05-28T23:45:00.001-07:00

Alright I don't know if anyone has heard but Bellevue is going to be the epi-center of high luxury shopping come this September. The Bravern in Bellevue will be opening its famous high end shops including such names as: Salvatore Ferragamo, Gucci, Neiman Marcus, Louis Vuitton, Her'mes...along with good eateries such as: Wild Ginger, John Howie Steak, a wine bar. I am incredibly stoked for this to happen. Finally the Seattle area (well its Bellevue but what ever) is going to have some marquee luxury branded boutiques in the area. Which brings me to an upsetting topic.

Why now? Why in the economic time that we are in do we just start to get something so luxurious as the Bravern? Seattle is always ahead when it comes to everthing tech trendy and eco friendly but we Seattle peeps tend to forget about becoming urbanomically dressed. Sure a majority of Seattle residents know how to live an urbanomical lifestyle but we have not been treated to high luxury shops like the ones listed above. Well, it's about time...you might as well buy one of the swank Bravern condos. Check out the website at www.thebravern.com and you will be surely impressed if not in awe.

Netflix? I'll buy that

2009-05-11T19:52:00.001-07:00

I just switched from blockbuster to Netflix today and have to say I am pretty pleased with the move. $13.99 plus another $3.00 ain't bad for 2 unlimited rentals a month I must say and we will have to see how quickly I can get my movies but in the mean time I can start watching some streamlining video of movies such as: Unforgiven, The Searchers, and Casablanca. I was really shocked by this and had to take a look at the stock like any well informed investor would do. So I did and wow am I impressed, sure the stock is close to its 50-day moving average of 44 (it currently trades at 39/share) but this stock has some staying power. The founder, Reed Hastings, is a genius, he took bold steps to create/integrate top boxes for the company basically keeping 3 steps ahead of any competitor. Netflix has turned into the modern day tivo with a twist of blockbuster. With the way economic times are looking right now the companies that are going to survive are the ones that are dishing out high quality entertainment on the cheap and easy to access. That's what Netflix is all about, easy access...:)...

Here are some stats I like about the company...

Total Cash: 286 million vs 38.87 million of debt

Revenue: 1.43 Billion with market cap of $2.4 billion

Profit: 434 million...(would like to see about 250 million more but eh)

yoy growth: 67% (thats huge..)

The analysts like it too...we got a firm upgrade from Citibank last month and a few more reports that say it's a buy (at least 3 vs 11 hold recos).

If you can be patient I would go for this stock at $34...

Buying this Rally? Yes

2009-05-05T21:04:00.001-07:00

It's May 2009 and we are seeing some positive territory with stocks lately. Sure the Bank reports of the 19 biggest banks are in and the reports were well...not so good and we're still waiting on the government's suggestions I'm really seeing a period of "stability". According to Citigroup they will be seaking 10 Billion in capital not through government investment (which for all of you's that's keeping count is 45%) but private investments. What's even more exciting is that there are potential suitors!!! The stock has been trading at the $2.00-$3.90 range the past month or so and I think finally (once the bad bank assets get bought up) we're going to see stability with the banks. Sure I would love to see Citigroup sell some assets like its Traveler's insurance brand (Hey Warren you listening?) but for now I like the idea of private investment in CitiGroup.

Yes, I am basing this whole positive empathy on the fact that the big banks (Citi, Bank of America, Wells Fargo) are looking up as far as performance lately. I would like to see some more mergers coming about but for now I like the performances by Mr. Geithner and Mr. Pandit. So what is going to dig us out of this recession hole? Well, obviously we're going to see it with housing starts, I think once housing gets going again for consecutive months we're going to see some bullish sentiment with stocks. Also, commercial properties are going to have to lead us out because with commercial property comes jobs. I do believe that unemployment will peak at oh about 12% until we see it come down but that was already priced into the market in February. So what do we buy?

Specifically:

Apple- I know I love this stock so much that I always recommend but think about it. It's done so well during the recession and with out Steve at the helm. Think of what it will done once we're good again.

Citi- A bit speculative but seriously this stock will hit $10 by summertime I can believe that for sure.

Amazon- Tech/retail mix is one of the few companies with a notable CEO that doesn't flinch at a bad economy.

First Solar- With growing economy we're going to have to get energy somewhere and First Solar has the monopoly when it comes to alternative energy.

Toyota- Going back to alternative energy this company produces affordable cars that don't guzzle gas. As well as unaffordable cars that do not guzzle gas.

Wells Fargo- The new Warren Buffett, Jamie Dixon is CEO/gambler of the year in my book and the stock price shows.

my speculative play of the year? Saks Fifth Avenue- They're real estate values them much higher than $5/share plus it's got the reputation to sustain its legs.

Investing in fashion?

2009-04-21T21:51:00.000-07:00

Okay now we are talking, so here we go investing in your style. Literally, I'm taking a look at two very comparable companies that you should invest in today. Saks Fifth Avenue and American Apparel.

So why invest in these two companies if you're gonna hit up fashion? Potential and growth, these two companies have it right now and something big is going to happen with both of these companies. Let's Start with Saks Fifth Avenue, everyone knows Saks Fifth Avenue, the old school boutique started in 1867 located in New York City. This company sells high end luxury products from handbags to shoes by top end designers such as: Salvatore Ferragamo, Gucci, Lacoste, Chanel, Armani, etc. Now this sector has been hit very hard since the downtown hitting as low as $1.50/share at the beginning of the year. The stock is down 16.9% for the year but things are looking up, their real estate still holds value and a private investment of about 800 million will sure help buy time until the economy turns up. Also people most associated with this company have seen their portfolios increase a mighty hand lately which could lead to some shopping and a strong April same store sales growth. I'm liking this company a lot.

Then there is American Apparel, an enigma of American fashion as they are the biggest United States clothing manufacturer in the U.S. 3,000 employees strong produce the product in Los Angeles. The sexy jersey knit clothing is a huge seller from ages 18-40 and is geared towards the more hipster crowd. The quality of the clothing is great and employees are treated very well with this company. American Apparel plans to open 300 more stores in the next 3 years or so which is great for the company. The stock is actually up 110% for the year but way off of its 2008 high of 15. Why do I like this stock, because it's innovative CEO Dov Charney is a genius when it comes to fashion. He knows his stuff whether it be controversial (have you seen his advertisements) or just how to make great quality clothing.

So get out there and put a cool $1,000 in these two companies...ride it out for a month or two....

Don't Matter what age you are...still gotta dress

2009-04-14T23:13:00.000-07:00

So I wanted to change things up for a minute and write about my little nephew Kevin. He is the biggest stud I know (even more than me :), I mean this kid's got it all. Good smile, social behavior, and most importantly he's got style. Now of course it helps his mom knows how to dress him and that he's got a pretty stylish Uncle but you gotta have the swagger to pull it off as well.

First pic Kevin's repping the Nike label, obviously he's a little bit ahead of his time (hat doesn't exactly fit). He's on the right track though, he's got good taste in clothing and brands. C'mon what kid doesn't need a white nike hat anyway. (comes around $19.95 retail).

Kid's gotta get their exercise (look at Kevin's cheeks their so chubby) but you know you don't want to catch cold. You also don't wanna wear one of those starfish snow coats either. Kevin's got a nice little denim jacket that can be found at any Gap Kids' store or believe it or not Marshall's and Nordstrom Rack have really good deals (ranging from around $10.00-$30.00).

Last but not least, Kevin's sporting the brown/blue combination with a brown vest and blue shirt. I love this combination on anyone, it's good for Spring Time or Fall and it shows you have style as opposed to just wearing a basic white/black vest combo. Dress your kids up for those weddings, holiday gatherings, or family reunions that take place well into the night time. Kevin's comfortable and still looking sharp.

You need a new suit for cheap...go to Banana Republic...free pants

2009-04-03T22:46:00.000-07:00

So this weekend only at the Downtown Men's Banana Republic they're giving away FREE SUIT PANTS. Oh, there's a catch, you have to buy the suit jacket that goes along with the suit. How ever you can save even more b A) using your banana republic card or B) opening up a banana republic card. It is 10% for regular Banana Republic holders and 15% plus 10% for new openers. It's a real great deal if you're in the market for a new suit. The one pictured above is the new three piece Monogram suit. the jacket goes for $425, vest is $148.00, and the pants are regularly $199.00. But in this case the pants are free plus the potential discounts you can save at least $250 with an average suit. In today's economy that's why I call being, ...urbanomical. There are a tone of new summer suits there because we just got our new line this past Tuesday. I know the Women's store has dresses for 50% or something but yeah...btw this is exclusive to the Downtown Men's Store I believe and it's only on regular priced suits. holla....

Urban Eats...Kushi 2nd Ave Seattle

2009-04-01T20:16:00.001-07:00

Last Friday I went out with a group of people totaling five, we were initially going to go to an Italian restaurant on 2nd Ave but somebody was late (I swear Asian time is ridic) anyways, I wasn't really feeling the whole Italian restaurant scene so we relocated to this nice bamboo restaurant called Kushi. Now you would probably think this place is another Umi or Wasabi Bistro (which by the way it's right next door to) but no. This joint specializes in Japanese street food, their known for food on skewers grilled over charcoal. You walk in and may choose to sit outside on their bamboo deck (it's heated and insulated) or sit inside for some nice mood lighting. We decided to sit on the deck...ready for food.

As we waited for the others of the party to arrive I opened the menu to take a look. The dishes are fairly simple, you can simply get a bowl of noodles for about 7 bucks or dive into some regular old teriyaki dishes. Drinks are pretty standard, $4 domestics $5 imports. Happy hour is from like 3-6 and 11-1. I imagine they have a pretty good after hours since it's around the corner from Del Rey. Course I came to this place for street food, the variety is amazing. You can get anything from dragon balls (bacon wrapped scallops) to chicken hearts, gizzards, or liver (which aren't too bad but not much flavor). You can also get seared tuna, salmon, halibut, fish on a skewer or dive into some filet minon and any type of chicken. The skewers average about 2-7 dollars depending on what you prefer so I decided to hit each basic protein group.

We went with the dragon balls, seared tuna/salmon, chicken, gyoza, shrimp, chicken fried rice, fried squid and drinks of course. Overall it was great, I was stuffed off everything but my most favorite was probably the fried rice and the dragon balls. All the food was very high quality and very tender, I was pleasantly impressed and satisfied.

As the bill came we split up and it came to about $25/person with food and drink. We did splurge a little because we did want to taste everything but I think you could get away with spending about 15-20 if you know what you want. That's including tip, our the service, if you're wondering was excellent. Our waitress was pretty chill and I could tell she was tired but she was very attentive to what we needed...so yeah overall I give it an 8 out of 10. It was money well spent and I'd go again, I want some of them dragon balls dude.

Urban games...Street Fighter Joystick

2009-04-01T19:56:00.000-07:00

I have just recently purchased Street Fighter IV, probably one of the greatest fighting franchises for any system. I remember as little kid trying to figure out what the hell exactly Vega was trying to do on screen. Jumping up and down like a lil bitch...anyway so I played it. Game was pretty good, graphics were excellent and it was easy to pick the game up over again. Granted it was a little bit different using PS3 controllers but it was still fun. After playing for about 4 hours with m brother in law I get to the boss which is actually some weird ass robot looking dude that possesses all the powers of everyone in the game. After about six tries I finally beat the mo-fo and reign victorious. Evidently when you beat the game with each character you get a new one to play with. A bit like Capcom vs Marvel 1 and 2, two also great games that should be in every game collection.

One thing was missing though and I could not figure it out for the longest time. I was at Game Works checking out some stuff there and it hit me. I see two guys playing Street Fighter IV on JOYSTICKS. Man was does it add another element to the game when you add joysticks. So first thing I do when I get to the office is search for some new joysticks. Holy freaking crap, $250 for one joystick. You gotta be kidding me but I really wanted one but didn't want to fork over the money. Do you have this same dilemna? Well, I have a solution for you.

Go to the link below and you'll find joysticks for a bit less, granted it's not the same Street Fighter one made by Mad Catz but they do the trick. I have a buddy that knows how to put these bad boys together. If you have any questions he'lll answer them for you. It's legit otherwise I wouldn't post it.

http://seattle.craigslist.org/est/tag/1084231423.html

Investing time...PLEASE GO TO LAS VEGAS SANDS...

2009-03-30T20:42:00.001-07:00

I'm being pretty bold this week, Las Vegas Sands, (ticker symbol LVS) has been just hammered lately. I've been reading reports that a big volume of April calls have been being purchased at substantial volume. Normally I would stray away from crazy Las Vegas, Macao, Riverboat, etc. but I became compelled to trade this stock because of the technical side of option calls. Now I love Vegas and I like gambling but I'm obsessed with the Venetian. I mean that place has got everything, art galleries, Banana Republic, a freaking awesome club, and a few years ago was ranked the #1 spot for bachelorette parties to stay at. What a combo...it's like a #3 at Jack in the Box large sized...hmmm...Jack in the Box...oh...sorry....okay so Las Vegas Sands. So why did I pick this stock?

Well out of all the layers involved in Vegas Casinos, Las Vegas Sands is still building...and is on schedule? Huh, a Las Vegas Casino building on schedule in where? Singapore...yes, pictured above is the brand new Las Vegas Sands Singapore casino. The concept for this casino was is supposed to resemble a stack of cards, anyway, it's almost done and is slated to be done by August of 2008 this monster is going to have 1,000 gaming tables along with 1,400 slots. Three 55 story towers are going to be hovered on the Bay and the hotels will open this summer. The actual casino will be slated to open early 2010, now there was a report that tourism was down 15% in Singapore but that's okay and expected. What we're banking on is the completion of the project which is good for both Singapore and LVS. 75% of the labor are locals which was an agreement with the government.

So next time you're in Vegas you gotta lose your money at the Venetian or shoot stroll on over to the Palazzo. please!!!

Style...the dress shirt

2009-03-30T20:17:00.000-07:00

Summer time is near and for a lot of us that means some new cloth investments. Pants are easy stuff so we'll start from the top to get you started so here's my taste for summertime dress shirts.

When you are purchasing dress shirts it's always good to know what you're going to wear with it. You want to choose a dress shirt that can fit with casual dress, work time, after work, etc. Shirts that go well with dress slacks or a nice pair of jeans...dress shoes or sneaks you should always picture in your mind how your dress shirt is going to look with the whole outfit. Obviously you gotta have a white shirt, a nice crisp clean oxford or poplin shirt is going to realy be versatile, you can wear one with some nice dress slacks or relax it out with some jeans. But you want to invest in a nice quality dress shirt that keeps its form. The one pictured here is by Salvatore Ferragamo, a name affiliated with...classic.

Jive it up a little bit too, I like the blue pastel color because well blue is my favorite color and it goes along with a lot of things. You can pair it up with black slacks or blue jeans, sneakers or dress shoes, and if you're trying to impress the boss suit it up with a tie. The one pictured here is by Banana Republic and comes at a very reasonable price (ranging from 39.99-59.50). I forgot to mention to know what cut you want, personally I like the slim fit cut because it's the cleanest one. You want to be able to be versatile and slim cuts you can wear tucked in or not.

Lastly go with a season for the summer...a couple years ago I was wearing a ton of green. A friend of mine said that was her favorite color and it soon became mine for that year. This year I'm going with lavender, yeah I know it seems pretty prissy but shoot I can pull it off...I think...Anyway, I like the Hugo Boss Slim Fit. I decided to go with a regular cuff and not the French Cuff cuz I didn't want to be to Gotti. The cut is really nice and it fits snug, you can wear this with grey or black at any summer outing. I decided to go to a wedding dressed up in lavender and got some nice compliments. Guess I'm doing something right, this shirt was reasonable at around $95.00. Not exactly the upwards of the $295 price of the Ferragamo shirt but I was happy with the suggestion...thanks Nordies...

Jordan Phat IV...I bought yo

2009-03-24T19:09:00.001-07:00

I haven't done a fashion piece in a while and this is a bit of a repeat but what ever hopefully you'll like it...

I went down to Champs' Sports the other day and finally I got my Jordan Phat IV's in a nice black color. Went home hella stoked and tried them on with a pair of jeans. To my dismay I wasn't really happy with the way they looked, actually I was pretty upset at the similarities they had to skater shoes. If I wanted skater shoes I would've got globe's...so I went back to Champs and exchanged them for the much cleaner white pair. Bingo a success, my little nephew even tried to put them on when I went to visit him and I even got comments from an old lady on the bus on my way to downtown.

If you're going to be an urbanomical type of person you have to get a nice clean pair of sneakers. White ones are tough to keep clean but if you take real good care of them you should be square. Remember to use a common sneaker cleaner at your local shoe store or if you're old school like me spray them down with windex and an old shirt...

you can wear low tops with jeans or some plaid shorts during the summer time. If you're gonna sport them while going out try wearing a retro jacket or spice it up with a sweater vest and tie. You can wear a hat to go with it but I prefer to do with out the hat but that's just me do up how ever you like.

As far as brands you can never go wrong with retro nikes but I also like puma's line and could go for Adidas (that is if the store downtown was still alive). Pony's on the comeback as well so you might give them a shot.

Toxic Asset Plan...Today's moves

2009-03-23T18:31:00.000-07:00

Today was the announcement of Treasury Secretary Geithner's plan to buy some $1 Trillion in toxic mortgages off bank balance sheets. This purchase will come from the $700 billion bailout program, private investment sources, and FDIC insured funds. With the tax payer taking a majority of the risk if the investments go sour which is a possibility. A typical transaction will go like this: private investor puts in $7, another $7 comes from the bailout funds, and the left over $86 would be covered by a government loan. This is one good step in the right direction and could work out how ever some issues still need to be addressed:

1. How do we price the toxic assets? This was one issue with Republican Whip Eric Cantor that raises some questions. Will the toxic assets be market priced or come at the original price when these assets were taken out.

2. What happens if the funds go sour? Well, Armageddon, this will definately bankrupt the US and could lead to a definite depression.

3. Can the move be profitable for the American taxpayer? Yes, and in the end Obama will become a national hero and we can look beyond this horrid time in our economy.

With all this in mind it seems investors liked the move but I myself am still optimistic on what's going on here. It's a scary thought if this doesn't work but if history repeats itself I believe this will be good for the economy. If you take into consideration the Swedish Banking crisis of 1991-92 we saw a "bad bank" established that bought toxic assets at a discounted price and also had government stakes taken into these insolvent institutions. This did wipe out shareholders how ever but in the end the assets were sold at a profit and eventually helped the Swedish banking system. So what stocks or sectors do you put your money in now?

Commodities- Anything in regards to Copper, oil, steel is a good play right now especially if you are in fear of inflation.

Tech- Tech has been leading the way since this whole thing began and I like the big names: Apple, HPQ, Microsoft, Cisco, and Oracle.

Retail-Big pricey retail is where you want to go because it's investors with big consumption that will lead us out of the recession: Tiffany, Nordstrom, Best Buy to name a few.

Cheap stocks? To invest or not to invest?

2009-03-16T20:33:00.000-07:00

Cheap stocks, the real question here to know when to put your money in on a company or once great company that has come crashing down (much like this graph you see before you). Well, it's hard to say, there are so many companies that are incredibly "cheap". But is this true or not? What exactly is a "cheap" stock versus an expensive stock. Just because CitiGroup, once a 300 billion dollar company is trading at $1 a share does that mean I invest in it? Yes, but only if you see healthy balance sheets, growth opportunities, a strong board, and if you can stomach volatility. It's hard to know when or when not to put faith in a stock that you view as a great bargain just because the price is so low. Take Las Vegas Sands for example, this casino Company once traded at $130/share in early 2007. Now it stands at around $2.00 a share or so, so do I buy it? Well, I'd say not now, Las Vegas Sands has a huge amount of debt and slowing growth in all their industries. The Board is well...a crapshot and there's no real guidance of where the company is headed. How about say...DryShips...company traded near $112 a year ago but now it trades at a horrid $3.90/share. Again, could be good in a year or so but balance sheet is questionable. I have no idea who's on their board and they have a lot of debt obligations.

Now if you take a company like, Navistar International. A great buy...it's trading at half of its 52 week high right now and it's just because the stock was inflated in my opinion. It pays a dividend and has little short-term debt, the company is making moves and deals (just thwarted off their Ford relationship) and I predict that industrials are going to be the 2nd leader out of this bear market.

Nordstrom, another great company that could be a steal right now. The last bear market saw Nordstrom hit $8/share but it bounced back in the last bull market to touch around $45. Nordstrom has great leadership in the company and they are still expanding. A loyal customer base and they own their own debt through Nordstrom banking. The stock is trading above the $6 low and is standing at $15. Of the big retail luxury giants Nordstrom is a safe bet and I think you can ride it for some time. Don't expect big returns but know that it's far from bankruptcy.

So if you're ever going to invest in a "cheap stock", don't. Cheap is what you buy at the grocery store for lunch. Inexpensive is what you buy when you see a bargain in something with value.

The Fedora: Can you pull it off?

2009-03-14T23:09:00.001-07:00

The other night I was doing my thing at the old downtown Banana Republic. Slaving away at folding chinos and making them look real pretty. One of my favorite co-workers, who are never see none the less, Mark happened to be closing with myself. Now this Guy Mark is a fashion guru, I ask him all the time about fashion advice. He can break it down for you and tell you what works and what doesn't work. One piece of advice he told me is you can wear the tightest suit from the most expensive designer but it's the shoes you wear with the suit that make the outfit. If there is one article of clothing to spend your money on spend $300.00 on a pair of shoes because they will make or break your outfit. It's true this guy has the tightest collection of shoes I've ever seen. Shiny shoes, black shoes, blue shoes, you name it guys got them all.

So I was wondering how a fedora could be pulled off and I wanted to use his advice to advise yeah all:

Step 1: pick a fedora for each outfit...if you're going with a grey outfit get a grey fedora. Black outfit go with a dark fedora. Cream colored v-neck sweater and and tie go with a light colored fedora (see above).

Step 2: Your hair is important because you will want it to look good when you take it off. Make sure to either part your hair or slick it back so it fits well when you put your fedora back on...which leads to step 3.

Step 3: Never wear a fedora in doors, the fedora must only be worn outside on a nice spring/summer day. Don't offend your public...they appreciate it.

Step 4: Tilt the fedora near your eyebrows...the brim should be covering your eyebrows and almost covering your eyes to give it a little bit of the swagger because you are making a statement when wearing one.

Step 5: Have fun with it, whether it be walking down the street or going to a summer time party. You'll look dumb if you're pretentious about wearing one so just let go and have some fun...