But the cat’s out of the bag, so I am O.K. confirming  that they are indeed Rhode Island and St. Anselm. The league had asked me to wait until the schools had applied, but the Boston Herald posted the story today.

Thoughts:

• URI is more well known and would be a natural fit for Hockey East someday to align with the rest of the New England state schools (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, and soon Connecticut). That means this could be a stepping stone move for the Rams. Of course, there’s no room in Hockey East, but, as we’ve seen recently, things can change quickly in terms of conference realignment.

• St. Anselm has a nice facility and is 10 miles from the AHA offices. This would open the door to the school taking its women’s team to College Hockey America, which could lead to Holy Cross and Sacred Heart joining. Both have not despite the natural CHA-AHA alignment because of travel expenses – most of the  of CHA is in NY and PA. It’s not clear if URI would field a varsity women’s program, but that could work as well interms of Sacred Heart and Holy Cross being enticed to upgrade their women’s programs.

• It’s sad to not see Navy in the mix. The Midshipmen have been mentioned as one of four possible candidates and it would be exciting to expand on the Army-Air Force rivalry. The school has expressed interest in the past and was a co-host of the 2009 Frozen Four. But its athletic department is reportedly distracted right now with moving football to the ever-changing Big East (Edit: Now called the American Athletic Conference since the Big East name is staying with the “Catholic Seven”).

Stay tuned as this story continues to develop.

Thoughts on Rhode Island and St. Anselm as possible AHA members originally appeared on USCHO.com Blogs :: Atlantic Hockey Blog on May 18, 2013.

This Week’s Picks:

NCAA East Regional
March 30-31
No. 4 Canisius vs. No. 1 Quinnipiac
A Canisius upset is a trendy pick. The Golden Griffins have been the hottest team in Division I over the last four weeks, while the Bobcats lost in the semifinals of the ECAC tournament but managed a victory the consolation (yeah, it was consoling) game.

I have picked against Canisius in its last eight games and the Griffs have proved me wrong each time. Why mess with that? Quinnipiac wins.

NCAA West Regional
March 29-30
No. 3 Niagara vs. No. 2 North Dakota
While Canisius may be a semi-popular choice to advance, almost no one thinks the Purple Eagles have a shot. Any team with a Hobey Baker finalist in net has a chance, provided Carsen Chubak shakes off his last game and his team plays better in front of him. I just think the North Dakotans (well, what else can I call them?) have more weapons and will win a war of attrition. North Dakota wins.

USCHO will have a live chat for each game this weekend, plus stories, features and video.

Atlantic Hockey Picks March 29-31 (NCAA Tournament) originally appeared on USCHO.com Blogs :: Atlantic Hockey Blog on March 28, 2013.

And then there were two

In an historical Atlantic Hockey championship weekend, Canisius captured its first ever conference championship, defeating top-seeded Niagara 5-3 in the semifinals and dominating Mercyhurst 7-2 in the title game.

The Golden Griffins will play their first ever NCAA tournament game on Saturday in Providence, R.I., where they’ll take on the overall No. 1 Quinnipiac.

Niagara is seeded 10th overall and will take on North Dakota in Grand Rapids, Mich. on Friday.

You can see the entire bracket here.

Parity

I’ve been following college hockey for over 30 years, and I can attest that the addition of programs and formations of new conferences has continued to level the playing field.

Sure, you still have your blue chip programs, where not making the national tournament or even not winning it is considered a down year. But when you see teams like Quinnipiac, Union and Merrimack become national contenders in recent years, and low seeds like Brown make it to the league championships, you know that the difference between the traditional powerhouses and most Division I teams is narrowing.

This was the case this season in Atlantic Hockey. Coaches in the conference have long been preaching “on any given night”, but when the dust settled, it was Air Force representing the league in the NCAA tournament five of the last six seasons.

That changed this season with Canisius and Mercyhurst squaring off for the Atlantic Hockey title, teams that finished seventh and sixth, respectively, in the final standings.

Parity also was evident in Niagara gaining an at-large NCAA berth, the first ever in the AHA’s ten-year history. It also showed in Robert Morris’ near miss – the Colonials finished two slots away from making the tournament.

Niagara’s NCAA bid was partially made possible because the rest of the league won almost 40% of its non-conference games, the best percentage ever. Beating teams with better records moves you up in the selection process. For example, Robert Morris’ seven non-conference wins, including victories over Quinnipiac and Miami, helped the entire league.

Expect that trend to continue, and for “any given night” to be rule and not the exception.

Ghost town

As optimistic as things look in terms of on-ice success, fan support around the league remains poor. The bottom nine teams in average attendance in Division I this season were from Atlantic Hockey.

The lack of fans at this year’s championships at Blue Cross Arena in Rochester made it painfully obvious that a playoff game at BCA without Rochester Institute of Technology is not going to be a success in terms of ticket sales. The league has been fortunate that the Tigers had made it to the semifinals five straight seasons, but that’s not something that you can bank on, literally.

This past weekend, you had the next-best case scenario with Niagara, Canisius and Mercyhurst, the three teams closest to Rochester besides RIT, in the semifinals.

Attendance was officially listed as 1,095 on Friday and 887 on Saturday. That was tickets sold and not people in the arena, which topped out for the first semifinal between Niagara and Canisius at about 700.

The rink seats 10,313.

I think the two main factors for the low turnout is an under appreciation for the teams involved, as well as very little interest from the Rochester community.

The Buffalo News‘ Bucky Gleason had a piece this week about the lack of support Niagara and Canisius get in Western New York, a supposed hockey hotbed. It’s a real pity that this level of hockey is mostly ignored.

But even if each team brought a 1,000 people with them instead of the 100 or so they did, it still would only be half of what a playoff game involving RIT has drawn. That’s on the Rochester community, which missed some pretty good hockey. Where were the youth teams and hard-core hockey fans? Yes, they sell out the building for RIT once a year, but those ticket prices are $6-$10 while seats for Saturday’s championship were $18. Would lower prices make for more people? It’s a slippery slope because $18 is still a deal compared to what the other leagues are changing.

Would moving the tournament help? Not likely based on the attendance figures for the league in general. That’s something for each team to work on. Just like winning non-conference games, a rising tide will lift everyone’s boat.

Three Things: Atlantic Hockey – Monday, March 25 originally appeared on USCHO.com Blogs :: Atlantic Hockey Blog on March 25, 2013.

Watch this video on YouTube.

Watch this video on YouTube.

Watch this video on YouTube.

Video reaction from Canisius’ win over Mercyhurst originally appeared on USCHO.com Blogs :: Atlantic Hockey Blog on March 23, 2013.

• The game between Mercyhurst and Connecticut marked, surprisingly, the first use of video replay in Atlantic Hockey history. Trevor Gerling’s wrist shot in the first period trickled through goalie Jordan Tibbett’s legs and across the goal line before getting scooped out by a Laker defenseman. Referee Shayne Ferrier awarded the goal after review.

• It’s the first time that the sixth and seventh seeds will compete in the Atlantic Hockey championship.

• All three Atlantic Hockey championship games will be broadcast on cable for the first time.

• Atlantic Hockey has a chance to have two teams in the NCAAs for the first time, pending the results on Saturday and Sunday.

• It’s the first opportunity for Canisius to play for an automatic bid.

• For the first time since Air Force and Rochester Institute of Technology joined Atlantic Hockey and for the first time the tournament was moved to Rochester, N.Y., both teams were absent from the semifinals.

First time for everything: a few from the Atlantic Hockey semifinals originally appeared on USCHO.com Blogs :: Atlantic Hockey Blog on March 22, 2013.

Watch this video on YouTube.

Watch this video on YouTube.

Watch this video on YouTube.

Watch this video on YouTube.

Video reaction from Mercyhurst’s win over Connecticut originally appeared on USCHO.com Blogs :: Atlantic Hockey Blog on March 22, 2013.

Watch this video on YouTube.

Watch this video on YouTube.

Watch this video on YouTube.

Video reaction from Canisius’ win over Niagara originally appeared on USCHO.com Blogs :: Atlantic Hockey Blog on March 22, 2013.

This Week’s Picks:

Atlantic Hockey Semifinals and Finals
March 22-23

Read more about each team in my weekly AHA column.

Semifinals:

No. 7 Canisius vs. No. 1 Niagara
All that stuff about throwing out the records when these teams play each other is true. Never have the stakes been higher in this great Western New York rivalry. Canisius always matches up well with their neighbors to the northwest, but I have to go with the top-seeded Purple Eagles in a low scoring contest. If Niagara gets upset this weekend there will be about a 90% chance the Purple Eagles get in anyway with an at-large berth, putting two AHA teams into the NCAA tournament. But I don’t think it’s going to happen. Niagara wins.

No. 6 Mercyhurst vs. No. 4 Connecticut

With all due respect to the talented goalies on each team, I think this one will be more of a shootout than the first semifinal. Maybe that’s wishful thinking on my part, but this one has the potential for 7-8 goals to be scored. The more run-and-gun this game gets, the better Mercyhurst’s chances become. UConn wins if this one turns into a goaltending duel, the Lakers triumph in a goal-fest. I think the latter will occur. Mercyhurst wins.

Finals:

See above. I’m going with Niagara to win it all.

My personal odds of each team winning the title:

• Niagara: 40%
• Merchurst: 25%
• Connecticut: 20%
• Canisius 15%

USCHO will have a live chat for each game this weekend, plus stories, features and video. Check out our Playoff Central.

Atlantic Hockey Picks March 22-23 (Championship weekend) originally appeared on USCHO.com Blogs :: Atlantic Hockey Blog on March 22, 2013.

Things change

For the first time since 2007, Atlantic Hockey will have a new champion. Air Force, which won titles in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2012 will not be in Rochester for championship weekend for first time since entering the league in the 2006-2007 season. The Falcons were swept on home ice by Canisus, 4-3 on Friday and by the same score in overtime on Saturday.

Both games of the series had wild endings. On Friday, leading 3-2, Canisius got a power play with about a minute and half to go. That would seemingly have ended things, but Air Force’s Tony Thomas scored shorthanded to tie the game with 1:08 to play. That set the stage for a dramatic game-winner by Canisius’ Kyle Gibbons on that same power play with nine seconds to go.

On Saturday, Canisius trailed 3-2 with less than two minutes to play before Matthew Grazen got the equalizer at 18:02. Grazen had been suspended for eight games earlier in the season for a hit on Air Force’s George Michalke, ending Michalke’s season.

It took just 1:08 of overtime for Duncan McKellar to win the game and the series for the Golden Griffins. His shot deflected high in the air and into the net, bouncing off the back of Falcons’ goaltender Jason Torf.

Air Force outshot Canisius 43-26 on Friday and 53-25 on Saturday, but Tony Capobianco stood tall in net for the Golden Griffins.

“The difference in the game was Capobianco,” said Air Force coach Frank Serratore. “He was great. This game certainly didn’t go the way it was supposed to go for us. I give Canisius credit, they fought back to tie the game and then they got the bounce in overtime. This is a bitter pill to swallow. But we have been very fortunate in this league and we have done this to a lot of teams. I am very proud of our team. We got off to a rough start this season and these guys battled back to get a first-round bye. We were 14-4-4 in the final 20 regular-season games and credit those guys for hanging tough together.”

Rochester Institute of Technology, which also got as far as the conference semifinals every year starting with its first eligible season in 2008 and won the title in 2010, also won’t be playing in the Big House this weekend thanks to being swept out of the tournament at the hands of Niagara.

Niagara, Canisius, and Connecticut would each be first time Atlantic Hockey champs. Mercyhurst won an AHA title in 2005. The only other team to win a championship was Holy Cross in 2004 (the league’s first season) and 2006.

Connecticut did win a title in the MAAC, which began in 1998 and preceded Atlantic Hockey. The Huskies were MAAC champions in 2000.

Things stay the same

As mention above, the other perennial team at Blue Cross Arena on championship weekend has been RIT, but the Tigers won’t be there after getting swept at top seed and 15th-ranked Niagara.

The results kept RIT winless against the Purple Eagles in 12 attempts at Dwyer Arena dating back to 1996. It also kept alive a streak of unbeaten games for the Niagara on home ice that has now reached 22 games, dating back to last season and now carrying over to 2013-2014, making Niagara the only Division I team to avoid a loss at home this season (15-0-2). Amazingly, the Purple Eagles have done this before, going unbeaten for 22 games between 2006 and 2007.

“I told the boys, we have a 22 game unbeaten streak going back to last year on the line,” said Nuagara coach Dave Burkholder on Saturday. “Now we’re the only team in the nation to go unbeaten at home so I can’t say enough about these guys.  They are resilient; to bend and not break under the pressure is amazing.”

Be there or be square

The 2006-2007 season was the first time Rochester’s Blue Cross Arena hosted the Atlantic Hockey championships. RIT was in the second of its transition years from Division III to Division I and ineligible for the AHA tournament.

Attendance for the tournament that year, which featured an Army-Air Force matchup in the semifinals, drew 780 people on Friday and 713 on Saturday. The rink holds 10,313 for hockey.

RIT has sold out the BCA three times for homecoming games, but drew considerably less there for Atlantic Hockey tournament contests with 3,933 setting the mark for the largest crowd, set during an RIT-Air Force semifinal in 2007.

Here’s a look at the attendance figures:

Can you guess which games didn’t feature RIT? That has to be a concern for the league office.

On the bright side, Canisius (75 minute drive to Rochester), Niagara (90 minutes) and Mercyhurst (2.5 hours) are the closest teams to Rochester not named Tigers. Hopefully, that will make for a good fan presence.

Championship hockey is wonderful, and all the more better when played in front of a big crowd. Hopefully that will be the case this weekend.

Regardless, USCHO.com will be there with wall-to-wall coverage including a live blog for each game.

Three Things: Atlantic Hockey – Monday, March 18 originally appeared on USCHO.com Blogs :: Atlantic Hockey Blog on March 17, 2013.

This Week’s Picks:

Atlantic Hockey Quarterfinals (Best of Three Series)
March 15-17

Updated from last week: There have been 29 best-of-three series in Atlantic Hockey history, played either in the first or quarterfinal rounds. The home team won 28 of them.

Read more about each series in my weekly AHA column.

No. 8 Rochester Institute of Technology at No. 1 Niagara
The Tigers’ lack of success against Niagara (all the more interesting because both head coaches in Purple Eagle’s history were All-Americans for RIT in their playing days) is well known. It’s going to be a tall order to win twice in a rink that the Tigers have come up short in 10 attempts. Factors include any lasting effects from Niagara’s drubbing at the hands of Air Force in the final weekend of the season, and which RIT team will show up: the one that looked listless in its regular season finale against Canisius, or the team that dominated American International last weekend.  The pressure is on the Purps to sweep to stay inside the NCAA selection bubble. A loss, even one, could put Niagara in the same boat as the other seven AHA teams still in the running- win to get in. That said, I think RIT will end the Dwyer Arena jinx, but not twice. Niagara in three.

No. 7 Canisius at No. 2 Air Force
The Falcons are peaking, as they usually do this time of the season. There have been a couple of stumbles in past quarterfinals (Air Force had to go to a third game in 2009 and 2012) but Frank Serratore’s teams find a way to get to Rochester every time. This weekend will be no exception, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Canisius team that I think will make it to Rochester next season, win a game here. Tony Capobianco, who has quietly had a great season in net for the Golden Griffins, can steal one for sure. Air Force in three.

No. 6 Mercyhurst at No. 3 Holy Cross
These teams are evenly matched, but the Crusaders have the hotter hand, going 4-0-1 in their last five games. Mercyhurst swept Army in the first round last weekend to pull out of a slump that saw it go without a victory in the prior eight games. A lot will depend on which Lakers team shows up, and if the Crusaders can continue to use home ice to their advantage (10-5-2 there this season). I’m picking the Crusaders to advance to Rochester for the first time. Holy Cross in three.

No. 5 Robert Morris at No. 4 Connecticut
Robert Morris has a better overall record, PairWise and RPI thanks to some good non-conference wins. But UConn did better than RMU where it counts in terms of this weekend: two point higher in the final standings, giving the Huskies home ice. Goaltending and special teams also favor the Huskies. Only one road team has won an AHA playoff series in 29 attempts. So why am I picking the Colonials? They’ve shown they can play and beat very good teams. My gut tells me they’ll be able to do that this weekend. Colonials in three.

In summary: I think there’s going to be some hockey on Sunday.

Feel free to chime in by posting your picks in the comments and follow me on Twitter @chrislerch for updates throughout the weekend.

Atlantic Hockey Picks March 15-17 (Quarterfinal round) originally appeared on USCHO.com Blogs :: Atlantic Hockey Blog on March 15, 2013.