usd and usd

Gold And Silver: Just K.I.S.S!

2015-04-28T10:28:00.001-07:00

Old friends and new guests, thank you very much for the comments and discussions regarding my post last week. One thing was clear… you prefer classic trend line charts! I will try to keep it short and simple from now and on. I will keep Elliott Wave for more liquid and crowd trending markets, like stocks and indices, where they work better.

Gold

Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com

Last week Gold was very tricky compared to the other Dollar rivals. For example, the Euro and Crude oil are creeping up, while Gold did the opposite and squeezed out buyers. Yesterday, sellers couldn't escape either and got stopped out.

The price touched the downside for the second time and Gold shaped the Descending Triangle pattern which is highlighted in red. A breakout happened today above $1200. It means that we will watch the continuation of an uptrend (highlighted in blue). The target is calculated as a sum of the breakout and the height of the Triangle, which is located at $1246 area. It coincides with the hypothetical second touch point, charted as parallel lines. If price will manage to break above the uptrend, then the next area of interest for bulls is a previous medium term high located at $1307. It’s a nice target from a profit point of view.

Currently the level is $1211. The stop should be set both below today's low at $1199, and at the breakout point at $1200 (around $1195-1197).
The risk/reward ratio is approximately 1:2.2 ($1195 vs $1246) which is healthy enough. If we pray for $1307, then it will be huge, 1:6! Bon appetite my hungry sharks!

Silver

Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com

Silver was also cruel to traders on both sides. It first went down and touched the downside, killing longs. I hope market makers don't follow my posts, which would spoil the market plan for all of us, buyers and sellers.

The market picture is still the same. Indeed, the Falling Wedge reversal pattern was disrupted yesterday and the price reversed like a rocket to a new weekly high today. The target is also unchanged from last week's post and is located at $17.10. It equals the sum of the breakout point and the height of the Wedge at the widest area.

The current level is $16.55. The Stop should be set below the break point ($15.97-16.00) around $15.90 level.

The risk/reward proportion is poor; Silver is less liquid and the price soared more than 50¢ already. 65¢ of potential gain, versus 65¢ of potential loss. This is a tricky choice. You could hunt for a medium term peak resistance located at $18.45 (January 2015), which can score you almost $2.00 versus the pain of a 65¢ stop distance (1:3).

Risk is noble, just limit it by the stops.

Intelligent trades!

Aibek Burabayev
INO.com Contributor, Metals

Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article.This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

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In Search of the Most Efficient Energy & Commodity ETFs

2015-04-25T07:35:00.001-07:00

I wrote last week about the best oil ETFs. In the process, I discovered an interesting feature of the PowerShares DB Oil ETF (DBO), of which I had not previously been aware.

Specifically, as I described, other oil ETFs have a practice of automatically rolling into the next month’s oil futures contract when the current month contract expires – even if doing so will cause some price decay, as in “contango,” when the next month’s contract is higher priced than the current months (which commonly happens due to storage costs incurred by the party holding the physical commodity, etc). DBO, on the other hand, designed their ETF to NOT automatically roll into the next month’s futures contract, specifically to address that problem of decay, or “negative roll yield.” Instead, PowerShares uses what it calls an “Optimum Yield” formula to automatically roll into the most attractive near-month futures contract (of the next 13 months). In so doing, DBO thereby claims to optimize the fund’s “roll yield” (whether markets are in a state of contango or the opposite condition, known as backwardation).

As I showed last week, the performance of PowerShares DB Oil ETF (DBO) vs. two other commonly used oil ETFs (USO and OIL) does indeed show quite consistent outperformance by DBO in almost every single calendar year. Again, you can see last week’s post here if you’re interested in seeing the comparison.

In response to last week’s post, one reader asked whether any other “Optimum Yield”-type funds exist in other sectors. In fact, several broader commodities funds use some strategy to address the “negative roll yield” problem. I’m somewhat baffled as to why OIL and USO seemingly make no attempt to address the issue.

Broad energy futures funds

Here’s a chart comparing 5 energy funds. Again, last week’s post focused on funds focused specifically on oil. These 5 funds also branch into natural gas, gasoline, heating oil, gas oil, etc.

Be advised, all 5 of these “broad” energy funds are extremely small in terms of assets invested. PowerShares (DBE) is by far the largest of the 5, weighing in at about $146 million… still very small compared to the commodities funds discussed below. All 3 of the oil ETFs discussed last week (USO, OIL, and DBO) are well over $500 million in assets.

I’ve highlighted the best performing fund for each time period. As you can readily see, UBN has the best 1-, 3-, and 5-year returns. UBN’s strategy for addressing the negative roll risk associated with contango is to allow itself the latitude to use futures contracts ranging from 3 months to 3 years.

Now look at the calendar-year returns for these 5 funds.

As with our analysis of PowerShares Oil ETF (DBO) last week, PowerShares Energy ETF (DBE) comes through as the most consistent outperformer in the group. UBN is not far behind.

As for the others, Barclays’ iPath Pure Beta Energy Fund (ONG) uses a proprietary strategy for mitigating negative roll yield, similar to PowerShares (DBE). JJE and RJN apparently make no attempt to address negative roll yield, as far as I could tell.

For a discussion of tax implications, please see my article from last week.

Broad commodities futures funds

I also looked at broad commodities funds. Among funds with at least $150 million in assets, and with at least a 4-year track record, 4 funds stand out (in terms of having relatively good historical performance). Here’s their past performance:

DBC has by far the largest ongoing exposure to energy commodities among these 4 funds. If this fund interests you, I’d point out that PowerShares launched a “new & improved” fund (my term) in November 2014, called the PowerShares DB Optimum Yield ETF (PDBC). PDBC sports a 0.59% expense ratio, and is structured as an ETF instead of as a commodity pool or ETN like its competitors. PDBC issues a 1099 instead of a K-1. Finally, PDBC is an actively managed ETF with the same benchmark as DBC. I find PDBC very interesting, and I’ll even go so far as to say, if choosing between the two, I’d choose the newer PDBC for its structure, which is an improvement. ETNs are really unsecured debt obligations of the issuer. ETFs like PDBC are 1940 Act funds, similar to mutual funds.

USCI also looks very interesting. USCI seeks to track the performance of the SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Index Total Return, which is reconstructed monthly to invest in 14 commodities out of a list of 27, based on price market signals, including backwardation and 12-month price change. The fund/index appears to have the latitude to invest in futures contracts at least 9 months out (based on my observation of current holdings).

RJI apparently makes no effort, as far as I could tell, to address negative roll yield, other than to disclose the existence of the issue in their prospectus.

Here’s the calendar-year returns for these 4 funds. Once again, PowerShares takes the prize for consistency.

Conclusion

All I’ve done is to review past performance and learn a little about what each fund’s sponsor describes as their strategy. After this cursory analysis, it appears funds with a strategy to mitigate negative roll yield may in fact be better positioned to deliver consistent outperformance versus funds that make no attempt to solve this technical issue involved in futures trading.

Best,
Adam Feik
INO.com Contributor - Energies

Disclosure: At the time of post publication, this contributor owned Enterprise Product Partners (EDP), but did not own any other stock mentioned. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

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Nasdaq sets new record 15 years after dot-com crash

2015-04-23T14:50:00.005-07:00

The Nasdaq exchange smashed its 15-year-old record Thursday, breaking through the old mark set at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000. AP

NEW YORK—The Nasdaq exchange smashed its 15-year-old record Thursday, breaking through the old mark set at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.

The Nasdaq Composite Index added 0.42 percent (20.89 points) to finish at 5,056.06, finally making up all the nearly 4,000 points lost in a stunning crash that followed the previous closing mark of 5,048.62 set on March 10, 2000.

A final-hour sell-off prevented the S&P 500 from surpassing its own previous record high of six weeks ago, but the markets overall polished off the session in positive territory.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 20.42 points (0.11 percent) at 18,058.69. while the S&P added 4.97 (0.24 percent) at 2,112.93.

“We finally took out the resistance area” after weeks of waiting for the Nasdaq breakthrough, said Peter Cardillo at Rockwell Global Capital.

Among leading Nasdaq names, Apple rose 0.8 percent, Google gained 1.4 percent and Biogen tacked on 1.6 percent.

But Facebook slid 2.6 percent as net income in the first quarter plunged 20 percent to $509 million, amid hefty increases in spending on research and share-based compensation.

Texas Instruments, another Nasdaq listing, sank 6.8 percent after projecting second-quarter net income of 60-70 cents per share, below the 73 cents forecast by analysts.

General Motors fell 3.3 percent after first-quarter earnings of 86 cents per share missed analyst forecasts of 97 cents. The company took a $400 million charge to restructure its Russia operations.

Dow member Procter & Gamble fell 1.8 percent as net income for its fiscal third quarter dropped 17.5 percent to $2.2 billion, due in part to the strong dollar.

Time Warner Cable fell 0.6 percent on reports US cable giant Comcast will drop its plan to buy the company due to opposition from antitrust regulators. Comcast rose 0.8 percent.

Bond prices rose. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell to 1.95 percent from 1.98 percent Wednesday, while the 30-year dropped to 2.63 percent from 2.67 percent. Bond prices and yields move inversely.

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Lower Pinoy Tasty bread price seen

2015-04-23T14:50:00.003-07:00

Department of Agriculture squandered P14B--COA

Justin Fortune says Mayweather can't keep up with Pacquiao's speed

Ayala Land investing P16B in new BGC project

An old, tragic story

Filipinos among first to see ‘Avengers: Ultron’

Boy in Spain attack 'burst into tears' after killing teacher

Robbers strike twice in upscale subdivision

SC sides with dolphins, strikes down oil deal

MANILA, Philippines—The price of Pinoy Tasty sliced bread may go down by 50 centavos to P1 next month if trials using a new lower-priced flour from Europe are successful, the Philippine Baking Industry Group (Philbaking) said on Thursday.

Philbaking president Nestor Constancia said they were looking for alternative sources of flour to replace the locally milled Harinang Pinoy, which uses US wheat.—Amy R. Remo

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John Hay developer awaits P1.42B, says locators may stay

2015-04-23T14:50:00.001-07:00

Photo by Richard Balonglong/Inquirer Northern Luzon FILE PHOTO

MANILA, Philippines—Officials of the ousted developer of Baguio City’s Camp John Hay said Thursday the company could not be evicted from the facility until the Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA) forked over P1.42 billion under the writ of execution issued by a local court.

In a statement, Camp John Hay Development Corp. (CJHDevCo) executive vice president Alfredo Yñiguez III and lawyer Gilbert Reyes also said the state-owned BCDA could not include third-party locators who had acted in good faith in the notice to vacate issued by Judge Cecilia Archog of Baguio Regional Trial Court Branch 6 last April 14.

In a five-page writ of execution, Archog ordered its sheriff to implement the court’s March 27 order that confirmed the “Final Award” by the Philippine Dispute Resolution Center Inc. which directed BCDA to return to CJHDevCo P1,421,096,052 representing the rentals it had paid to the agency, as well as for the Camp John Hay developer to vacate the property.

The judge said the writ of execution must be implemented simultaneously, and that in the event the developer fulfilled its part but BCDA failed on its end, the CJHDevCo may place a levy on BCDA properties to satisfy the arbitral award.

“If respondent (BCDA) cannot return all or part of the obligation, in cash, certified bank check or other mode of payment acceptable to the petitioner, you (the sheriff) shall levy upon the properties of respondent (BCDA) of every kind and nature whatsoever which may be disposed of for value and not otherwise exempt from execution,” said the court order.

Yñiguez, in his letter to the Camp John Hay partners dated April 21—a day after the developer received a copy of the writ of execution and the notice to vacate—reiterated that CJHDevCo was “ready, willing and able to vacate the leased premises immediately or simultaneous with its actual receipt of payment from BCDA.”—Jerome Aning

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US stocks rise on housing data, earnings

2015-04-22T16:55:00.001-07:00

This Jan. 4, 2010, file photo shows an historic marker on Wall Street in New York. US stocks on Wednesday, April 22, 2015, posted solid gains following a big jump in US existing-home sales and a mixed bag of earnings reports from Boeing, McDonald’s and others. AP PHOTO/MARK LENNIHAN

EW YORK–US stocks on Wednesday posted solid gains following a big jump in US existing-home sales and a mixed bag of earnings reports from Boeing, McDonald’s and others.

The Dow Jones Industrial advanced 88.68 points (0.49 percent) to 18,038.27.

The broad-based S&P 500 rose 10.67 (0.51 percent) to 2,107.96, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index gained 21.07 (0.42 percent) at 5,035.17.

Total sales of used homes jumped 6.1 percent to an annual rate of 5.19 million units in March, the fastest pace in 18 months, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.

Dow member Boeing fell 1.4 percent as analysts focused on rising costs for production of its 787 jets rather than a 38.9 percent jump in net income to $1.34 billion.

McDonald’s, another Dow component, tacked on 3.1 percent as it vowed to unveil a turnaround plan in two weeks following another round of dismal results. Net income in the first quarter plunged 32.6 percent to $812 million.

Dow member Coca-Cola rose 1.3 percent despite first-quarter earnings falling 3.8 percent to $1.56 billion due to the strong dollar. That translated into 48 cents per share, six cents above forecasts.

Of 103 companies in the S&P 500 to report so far, 78 have beaten analysts’ estimates, 15 have missed and 10 have come in at expectations, said S&P Capital IQ.

Other companies reporting earnings included Amgen (+0.4 percent), Chipotle Mexican Grill (-7.4 percent), EMC (+3.1 percent), Yahoo (+1.2 percent) and Yum Brands (+4.0 percent).

Google rose 1 percent as it launched its own US mobile wireless service. The service, named Project Fi, will use Wi-Fi hotspots along with the US mobile networks of Sprint and T-Mobile.

Sprint rose 2 percent, while T-Mobile US gained 2.2 percent.

Perrigo, which sells over-the-counter pharmaceutical products such as Sudafed and Claritin, rose 4.5 percent on reports that Mylan is planning to raise its bid after Perrigo rejected an initial offer of $28.9 billion. Mylan fell 2.3 percent.

Visa rose 4.1 percent and Mastercard advanced 3.9 percent on reports that China will open up its bank-card clearing to US firms.

Bond prices fell. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose to 1.98 percent from 1.92 percent Tuesday, while the 30-year advanced to 2.67 percent from 2.59 percent. Bond prices and yields move inversely.

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German industrial conglomerate plots PH expansion plan

2015-04-19T09:16:00.001-07:00

FROM left: Martin Hayes, President, Managing Director – Robert Bosch (Southeast Asia) Pte Ltd; Peter Tyroller, Member of the Board of Management – Robert Bosch GmbH; Andrew Powell, Managing Director – Bosch Philippines

When one thinks of German companies in the Philippines, automobile firms like Mercedez Benz, BMW or Audi probably come to mind. Or perhaps industrial and consumer chemicals manufacturer Bayer, or maybe even engineering and communications firm Siemens.

But a company like Bosch—which has been in the country for two decades now—is probably not top-of-mind for most consumers.

That may be about to change, if the firm’s top brass will have its way.

Recently, Robert Bosch GmbH management board member Peter Tyroller flew in to rally the company’s local troops to their new goals, and also join them in celebrating the 20th year of the German industrial giant in the Philippines.

He spoke to the media and outlined wide ranging plans for the firm both in the country and around the region, especially in the light of the dynamic economic activity being experienced locally.

More interesting

“Asean is getting more interesting because there are a lot of big things going on here,” Tyroller said, referring to the 10-member-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which is in the process of forming an increasingly tighter economic union.

“Talk about more than 600 million people here—that’s a huge market. There’s a fast-growing middle class in this region. Since we are also underway to develop mid-priced products for the mid-priced segment, we are now prepared to cover the potential in the future,” he added.

The Philippines is of particular interest to Bosch, he said, because it is a market of roughly 100 million people that is experiencing an economic rebirth of sorts.

In recent years, the local market has become more affluent to the point of being able to afford more of the premium products that Bosch sells, instead of relying on cheaper alternatives in the past.

“Our philosophy is invented for life and our expectation is we fascinate with our products and we make price-competitive products for market-related products,” said Bosch Philippines managing director Andrew Powell. “And our idea is to have that throughout the Philippines not just in Manila, but also in our business hubs in Cebu and Davao and we want to provide our products and services to all Filipinos.”

“We have a very strong market share in power tools already in the Philippines and that continues to grow exponentially,” he added. “We are already here with automotive products for our automotive aftermarket [products]. We recently launched security systems organization that’s promising to be a very good growth area for us here in the Philippines.”

BOSCH POWER. From left: Tyroller, Hayes and Powell.

Because the rising economic tide has lifted the boats of more Filipino consumers, so to speak, Bosch is now taking a closer look at its wide portfolio of products to assess which can be introduced into the local market.

Wide portfolio

“We have a very wide portfolio. So we take a look at that, we take a look at market potentials and then we decide how to expand our footprint for that,” Powell said. “That will be our real focus.”

Already, Bosch—which is not publicly listed, but is instead the world’s largest privately owned corporation with 49 billion euros in revenues and over 280,000 employees worldwide at the end of 2014—is looking at making a bigger splash in the Philippine market.

“The big projects, we are a part of it,” Tyroller said. “We are not trying not just to sell a specific product; we are trying to even sell some solutions for public projects. Or we have big projects like the [Philippine] Arena and we have the loudspeaker systems available for [that] projects. And we have the power tools to build them.”

The company’s broad spectrum of products and services—from the automotive sector to consumer goods—allows it to employ an effective cross selling strategy in all the markets where it is present.

“We try to bring not just one division in such a project,” Tyroller said. “We are trying to have one approach that has various divisions providing the right components, the right systems and the right product for those big public projects.”

At the same time, Bosch is also making the most of the world-class Filipino talent pool that is available to it. The company has a business process outsourcing hub based in the Philippines that services the company’s foreign operations and customers, both from within the sprawling Bosch industrial conglomerate and without.

And it is here, in the services sector, where the Bosch executives are most excited for the Philippines vis-a-is the upcoming integration of the Asean markets.

“Asean economic community is important,” said Robert Bosch Southeast Asia president Martin Hayes. “We manufacture the majority of our automotive components in Thailand, we just started in Indonesia and we also have in Malaysia but once there should be zero tariffs around, that would definitely ease the products bringing in to the market.”

Free movement

In particular, the growing Bosch conglomerate is interested in seeing freer movement of labor among the various Asean nations.

“I think there’s a lot to do there,” Hayes said. “I hear in Singapore they are 70 percent completed but I think some of the first thing they need to do is, free travel of Asean members within Asean to aid them basically, and for us, that we can put people in to the right place where we need them within Asean.”

To better compete with its neighbors and to be better able to spread the benefits of economic growth around, the Bosch executives agreed that the Philippines had to work more on improving its infrastructure systems.

PETER Tyroller addresses the employees of Bosch Philippines.

“[Infrastructure] is one of the critical issues,” Powell said. “I’m looking at the positive side—the domestic growth of consumption here in the country’s where we’re really focusing our efforts because there we see the potential to grow business.”

“The challenges are being fast enough to have our footprint, to have people on board, to get the right people, train the right people, and to build up an attack and trade these businesses into the future,” he added. “I don’t want to mention the traffic, of course, and I also want to mention the language capability. [We have] very competent people here in the Philippines with semiconductor production and that is also another aspect here in the Philippines where we have sub-contractors who are providing the Bosch Group with semiconductors and electronic components which is growing dramatically. We are tapping into that capability also in the Philippines.”

If the company’s plans unfold according to plan, it is not inconceivable for Bosch to join other top-of-mind German brands for Filipino consumers in the not too distant future.

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Global markets mostly lower, China up on stimulus hope

2015-04-17T03:24:00.001-07:00

A man looks at an electronic stock indicator of a securities firm in Tokyo, Wednesday, April 15, 2015. Shares were mixed in Asia on Wednesday as investors absorbed the news that China’s economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly six years in the first quarter. AP

SEOUL, South Korea— Global stock markets were mostly lower on Friday while stocks in mainland China extended their gains on expectations of further policy easing.

KEEPING SCORE: European markets opened mixed with Britain’s FTSE 100 up 0.4 percent at 7,090.82 and France’s CAC 40 adding 0.1 percent to 5,227.91. Germany’s DAX was down 0.2 percent at 11,979.03. Futures showed that Wall Street was headed for a lukewarm day. S&P 500 futures and Dow futures were both 0.2 percent lower.

ASIA’S DAY: The Shanghai Composite index rose 2.2 percent to 4,287.30 while South Korea’s Kospi was up 0.2 percent at 2,143.50. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng shed 0.3 percent to 27,653.12. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.2 percent to 19,652.88, while Australia’s S&P ASX 200 was down 1.2 percent at 5,877.90.

CHINA STIMULUS: Stocks in Shanghai continued their gains after data showed that China’s economy grew at the slowest pace since 2009 during the first quarter. The data stoked expectations that the country would introduce further stimulus measures to achieve its annual growth target.

ANALYST’S TAKE ON ASIAN MARKETS: “Today looks like being a Friday consolidation for the stock market as traders head into the weekend with little in the way of news scheduled for the Asian region,” said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.

GREEK WORRY: Analysts said Asian markets were little affected by worries that Greece could default on its debts, which shot the country’s borrowing costs higher. The latest jitters followed a report Thursday in the Financial Times that Greece made an “informal approach” to the International Monetary Fund to have its bailout repayments delayed. Many in the markets think the Greek government will struggle to make a payment to the IMF due next month if it fails to reach a deal in negotiations with European creditors.

U.S. DATA: The Labor Department reports on consumer prices for March on Friday. In February, a slight rise in gas costs and broad increases in other categories lifted consumer prices, a welcome sign after three straight months of declines that had pointed to excessively low inflation.

ENERGY: U.S. benchmark crude oil slipped 60 cents to $56.11 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 32 cents to settle at $56.71 on Thursday, refreshing its highest price this year. Brent crude, a benchmark for international oils used by many U.S. refineries, fell 57 cents to $63.41 per barrel in London.

CURRENCIES: The dollar weakened to 118.81 yen from 118.98 yen while the euro strengthened to $1.081 from $1.077.

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ICTSI vying for 2 projects in Africa

2015-04-16T14:44:00.001-07:00

MANILA, Philippines–International Container Terminal Services Inc. (ICTSI) is bidding for two projects in Africa, a market that the company is keen on developing., according to company chair and president Enrique Razon Jr.

In an interview with reporters following ICTSI’s annual stockholders’ meeting on Thursday, company president Enrique Razon Jr. said ICTSI had placed bids for existing projects in The Republic of Cameroon, in Central Africa, and Mombasa in Kenya.

“Those are the two (projects) so far this year,” Razon told reporters, citing it was the size of these projects and their potential markets that made ICTSI interested in them.

“Kenya is a big market. (The port) has a capacity of more than 1 million containers,” Razon said, adding that the Cameroon facility was of similar size.

The company has been casting its gaze toward Africa given new opportunities opening up. So far, ICTSI has projects Madagascar, Nigeria and Congo. These are among 29 port projects the company has all around the world, with eight in the Philippines.

Despite its diverse footprint, the group’s seven key terminal operations in Manila, Brazil, Poland, Madagascar, China, Ecuador and Pakistan, which grew 10 percent, accounted for 74 percent of the company’s 2014 revenue.

ICTSI booked $1.1 billion in port revenue last year, representing a gain of 24 percent. Its net income hit $182 million, up 6 percent in 2014 over the previous year.

It is setting aside about $530 million in capital expenditure for 2015.

The money will be allocated mainly for the completion of developments at the new container terminals in Mexico and Democratic Republic of Congo, capacity expansion in its terminal operation in Manila, and the start of construction of new terminals in Iraq and Australia.

With regard to ICTSI’s joint venture container terminal development project with PSA International Pte Ltd. (PSA) in Buenaventura, Colombia, the company invested $64.7 million in 2014 and expects to invest $140 million in 2015 to complete phase one of the project.

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Investment banking JV bullish on PH midcaps

2015-04-16T14:43:00.007-07:00

MANILA, Philippines–Mid-sized publicly listed firms—as well as those that have yet to go public—face attractive prospects even if the local equities market was to face a downturn because many of them remain undervalued and under-appreciated by investors.

As such, the partners of the newly formed joint venture between India-based Religare Capital Markets and Manila-based FSG Capital believe local stocks would continue to attract foreign and local investors for both primary and secondary issues.

“For sure, you will see funds cycling out of the large caps and moving into the midcaps if the market enters a downturn,” FSG Capital chair and president Mark Frondoso said. “We see that as an opportunity for us in the equities business.”

The new partnership between FSG and Religare, which was sealed Thursday in Makati City, aims to provide investment banking services to mid-sized companies—both listed and unlisted—which may want to raise funds through the capital markets.

The group says they are aiming to address the needs of a small but lucrative niche market that remains underserved by larger investment banking firms and banking giants.

“Markets in the Philippines and around the region are somewhat toppish, I agree,” said Religare CEO Sutha Kandiah. “But we are here for the long term and we want to build relationships with these midcap firms. We’re committed to the Philippine market.”

On Thursday, Religare, a corporate finance and equity capital markets investment bank for fast-growing companies in the Asian region, recently signed a memorandum of agreement with FSG for the provision of investment Banking services.

RCM, which is an Asia-focused institutional equities and investment banking platform and a part of the diversified financial services group Religare Enterprises Limited, received its business representative license from the Securities and Exchange Commission last January 2013.

RCM said the partnership deepens its capabilities and presence in the Philippines off the back of its track record of successful transactions in the Philippines.

Its transactions include acting as joint global coordinator, international bookrunner, international lead manager for Travellers International Hotel Group Inc.’s $474-million initial public offering; joint placement agent for Philweb Corp.’s $50-million offering; co-bookrunner for the $155-million placement of shares in Puregold Price Club Inc.’s share capital; and international co-lead manager for the $65.3-million qualified public offering of STI Education.

RCM is also in the syndicate for the proposed follow-on offering of Global Ferronickel Holdings Inc.

FSG Capital is led by Frondoso, who was formerly the head of Morgan Stanley’s representative office in the Philippines and, before this, an associate director of Barclays Capital based in Hong Kong.

Through FSG Capital and related entities, he acquired the Philippine distressed assets business of Standard Bank of South Africa in 2014 and is also the Philippine partner of Home Credit B.V., a leading global mass market consumer finance provider. He also serves as chair of the investment committee of the Philippine Public School Teachers Association which has more than 160,000 members and a director of the Asian Aerospace Corp.

“My relationship with Sutha spans nearly a decade, and with Religare Capital Markets since 2010,” Frondoso said. “The decision to partner with Religare Capital Markets is the result of a common passion for excellence that is bound by the principles of merit, discipline and efficiency.”

To subscribe to the Philippine Daily Inquirer newspaper in the Philippines, call +63 2 896-6000 for Metro Manila and Metro Cebu or email your subscription request here.

Factual errors? Contact the Philippine Daily Inquirer's day desk. Believe this article violates journalistic ethics? Contact the Inquirer's Reader's Advocate. Or write The Readers' Advocate:

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JG Summit net income up 75% to P18.2B

2015-04-16T14:43:00.005-07:00

MANILA, Philippines–JG Summit Holdings Inc., the listed holding company of the Gokongwei family, said profits rose in 2014 on higher sales from its core real estate, and food and beverage units, apart from investments in telecommunications and energy distribution.

JG Summit said in a stock exchange filing Thursday that net income had hit P18.25 billion—up 75 percent over the same period in 2013. It added that total revenues in 2014 rose 22.9 percent to P184.8 billion.

JG Summit said core net income in 2014 hit 20.3 billion—up 48.7 percent year-on-year.

JG Summit said in its filing that earnings were bolstered by the contributions of its associates, which jumped by 217.4 percent to P7.25 billion. This was due to the full-year recognition of earnings in Manila Electric Co. following the purchase of a 21.7-percent stake from San Miguel Corp. last December 2013.

It also received dividend income from its stake in Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. and Jobstreet Malaysia amounting to P5.1 billion—up 55.8 percent.

Breaking down its core business, the company’s Universal Robina Corp. grew revenues by 15.6 percent last year to P96.65 billion.

Cebu Pacific saw a 26.8 percent increase in gross revenues to P52 billion in 2014.

Real estate and hotel revenues, through Robinsons Land Corp., posted a 5.4-percent growth to P17.43 billion due to higher rental revenues.–Miguel R. Camus

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Self-regulatory organizations

2015-04-16T14:43:00.003-07:00

Do self-regulatory organizations like the Philippine Stock Exchange and Philippine Dealing Exchange Corp. have the power to impose monetary damages (like actual, punitive or damages) on entities or persons under their regulatory jurisdiction?

A self-regulatory organization (SRO) is an organization or association registered under the Securities Regulation Code that is empowered to make and enforce its own rules among its members or persons associated with members. It is authorized to discipline its members or any person associated with a member through the imposition of fines, suspension or expulsion of membership.

There is no judicial precedent in the Philippines for the question at hand but the fairly recent case of Fiero vs. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, 660 F.3d 569 (2011), is instructive.

Finra is an SRO registered with the U.S. SEC. Like our SROs, it is empowered by law to initiate disciplinary proceedings against its members or their associated persons for violating any Finra rule or securities regulation.

Fiero Brothers, a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. SEC, was a member of Finra. John Fiero was the registered representative of Fiero Brothers. Finra, through its predecessor, NASD, expelled Fiero Brothers, barred Mr. Fiero from associating with any Finra-member firm, and fined the Fieros $1 million for violation of rules and securities regulations.

The Fieros refused to pay the fine. Finra filed a civil case to collect the fine with a state court in New York.

The trial court held that the case was firmly based on ordinary principles of contract law because the Fieros had “expressly agreed to comply with all NASD rules, including the imposition of fines and sanctions” when they voluntarily executed the NASD registration forms. The trial court said “New York state courts have long recognized the right of a private membership organization to impose fines on its members, when authorized to do so by statute, charter or by-laws.”

It also stated that “NASD is not `just a private club,’ but a self-regulatory organization, federally-mandated under . . . the Exchange Act to discipline its members and enforce the federal securities laws as well as its own SEC-approved rules.” It awarded the NASD a judgment of $1,329,724.54.

The Fieros questioned the authority of Finra to enforce the fine in the court.

The Federal Court of Appeals ruled against Finra. While conceding that SROs “have a statutory authority and obligation to ’appropriately discipline’ their members by expulsion, suspension, limitation of activities, functions, and operations, fine, censure, being suspended or barred from being associated with a member, or any other fitting sanction,” the law did not expressly grant them the authority to enforce the collection of fines through judicial action.

The court reasoned out that the “statutory scheme carefully particularizes an array of available remedies, including permissible actions in the federal courts.” This includes express statutory authority for the SEC to seek judicial enforcement of penalties for violation of the law and SEC rules.

However, conspicuously absent from the array of remedies is the power of SROs to enforce fines through judicial action. In the words of the Court, “[i]n contrast, there are no explicit provisions in the statute authorizing SRO’s to seek judicial enforcement of the variety of sanctions they can impose.”

The court rejected the argument that congressional intent to authorize such legal actions by Finra can be implied or inferred from the seemingly inexplicable nature of a gap in the Finra enforcement scheme: fines may be levied but not collected.

According to the court, such “significant under enforcement of the securities laws and Finra rules is hardly the inevitable result of Finra’s inability to bring fine- enforcement actions.” This is because “Finra fines are already enforced by a draconian sanction not involving court action. One cannot deal in securities with the public without being a member of Finra.

When a member fails to pay a fine levied by Finra, it can revoke the member’s registration, resulting in exclusion from the industry. Moreover, where a fine is based on a violation of the Exchange Act, the violator will also face a panoply of private and SEC remedies.”

The Fiero case has persuasive effect in our jurisdiction. Although it did not directly deal with the issue at hand, the morale of the story is that an SRO can only exercise powers as expressly granted it by law.

Unless an SRO is expressly granted the power to impose monetary damages, the answer seems to be that it is powerless to do so, and any damages it imposes on trading participants (brokers) and listed companies can certainly be questioned for having been made without or in excess of jurisdiction. This, indeed, is consistent with our legal system where the courts of law have “exclusive jurisdiction” to award damages.

(The author is former president and CEO of the Philippine Stock Exchange. He is now president of Shareholders’ Association of the Philippines and a senior partner of ACCRA Law Offices. His views in this column are strictly personal. He may be contacted at francis.ed.lim@gmail.com.)

To subscribe to the Philippine Daily Inquirer newspaper in the Philippines, call +63 2 896-6000 for Metro Manila and Metro Cebu or email your subscription request here.

Factual errors? Contact the Philippine Daily Inquirer's day desk. Believe this article violates journalistic ethics? Contact the Inquirer's Reader's Advocate. Or write The Readers' Advocate:

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Marketing political campaigns

2015-04-16T14:43:00.001-07:00

Greg Garcia

MANILA, Philippines–Greg Garcia is one of the country’s most respected advertising professionals.

He was a founding director of the Advertising Board of the Philippines, a founding chair of the Creative Guild of the Philippines, a founding director of the Bank Marketing Association of the Philippines, a recipient of the Lifetime Achievement Award of the Creative Guild of the Philippines, and was chosen one of the 20 Mavericks in Philippine Advertising for the past 25 years bestowed by the Association of Accredited Advertising Agencies of the Philippines.

After retiring as chair and chief creative officer of Hemisphere-Leo Burnett in 2000, he handled the political campaigns of some of the biggest names in Philippine politics.

He shares his thoughts about marketing political personalities.

Question: You were in consumer advertising before marketing political campaigns. How do you influence decision-making of specific voters? Do you use the same framework as marketing products or services?

Answer: The same principles are involved: a good narrative, authenticity, and a compelling reason to buy or vote, in the case of politicians.

Q: Say some politicians have approached you. What do you do to assess if you will accept or decline the invitation? Do you do preliminary research before agreeing?

A: First, there’s got to be a high level of trust and authority for me to make decisions. Key people from the circle of the politician can get involved in the discussion of the campaign strategy. But once the strategy is approved, I need to be given enough independence to make decisions and to implement them so we can be nimble in our campaign.

It is important that I work with a pollster I am comfortable with. There really aren’t too many of them around, the really good ones, anyway.

Q: You have been involved in quite a number of political campaigns. In your opinion, what does and does not work in political campaigns?

A: What works in a campaign is to have a message that resonates with the voters. What doesn’t work is to have a campaign based solely on recall.

Q: US President Obama used social media extensively and won against early favorite and more experienced Hillary Clinton. Given that some 90 percent of the population are in the DE income class, will social media play a significant role in the Philippines?

A: Social media is important for data gathering and personalization. It has the potential to get the so-called D&E with the increase in ownership of mobile devices.

The key is how to get users involved in political discussions, what social media is really all about … social activities. The key learning is not to use social media as a microphone.

Q: What has been your all-time favorite political campaign, local or international, so far, and why?

A: I am a big fan of the Obama campaign—the professionalism in using persuasive copy and graphics and the utilization of an effective ground campaign.

Q: You were involved in the Binay for vice president campaign, and he came from behind and won against Sen. Mar Roxas in 2013. What was the turning point that made voters switch preference towards the home stretch?

A: The Binay campaign wasn’t really a switch campaign towards the home stretch, it was effective communication that answered the needs of the moment, and a campaign idea that resonated.

We made effective use of the Makati story (“Ganito kami sa Makati, sana ganito rin sa buong bansa” and “Pinapangako pa lang ng iba, ginawa na ni Binay”) and did well with tacticals that touched on his life story and the Cory connection, and a happy catchy meaningful end campaign “Kay Binay gaganda ang buhay.”

Q: With so much dirt being thrown at Vice President Jojo Binay this early, do you see a similar pattern as when Senator Manny Villar declared his candidacy for President early in the 2013 election? I understand that you were also involved in the Villar campaign.

A: The important thing when your integrity is being challenged is to give the right answers that people will accept, and the ability to quickly change the conversation.

Q: A credible but losing senatorial candidate told me that, to win a national election in the Philippines, you would need to be related or have the same surname as the incumbent, a popular actor or have launched a coup. Is there truth to this? Has there been an outsider who won a national election without these and lots of money?

A: Jack Enrile did not make it. Cesar Montano and Richard Gomez did not make it. Chavit Singson did not make it. Name can give you recall, but it’s your narrative behind the name that’s more important.

Q: If you were to handle the campaigns of the following again, what would you have changed and why? Senator Pia Cayetano, Senator Allan Cayetano, Senator Ping Lacson?

A: None, except for Ping, perhaps. I would focus on his humanity side rather than the tough Ping you know. The “kamay na bakal” theme, which Duterte is also exploiting, has limits in attraction.

Q: Who is your dream future client for president and why?

A: Alan and Ping. They both have integrity and the desire to get things moving in this country—to really improve the lives of everyone. They have the solutions and political will to make it happen.

(The author is chair of marketing training firm Mansmith and Fielders Inc. For the complete interview as well as those with other thought leaders, follow him at www.josiahgo.com.)

To subscribe to the Philippine Daily Inquirer newspaper in the Philippines, call +63 2 896-6000 for Metro Manila and Metro Cebu or email your subscription request here.

Factual errors? Contact the Philippine Daily Inquirer's day desk. Believe this article violates journalistic ethics? Contact the Inquirer's Reader's Advocate. Or write The Readers' Advocate:

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Don't Underestimate This Oil and Gas Driller

2015-04-16T14:31:00.001-07:00

Oil's free-fall hasn't been kind to offshore or onshore drillers. A quick look at the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) is evidence of weakness in the industry.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Since the summer of last year, oil has fallen from over $100 per barrel down to to less than $45 per barrel. For the past few weeks though, oil has been on an uptrend. It now stands at around $56 per barrel and investors are clamoring to get back into the very stocks that were sold off over the past several months.

Fueling the recent gain is the news that oil inventories only rose 1.3 million barrels in the latest U.S. data report, the smallest increase seen since January 2nd and far short of the 4.1 million barrels that most analysts had predicted. It's a good sign that we've finally seen the bottom in oil and are now seeing the bounce back off of those previous lows.

While oil could still track down before ultimately heading back up, there appear to be more tailwinds for the commodity than headwinds. The energy sector is beginning to look overbought as evidenced by XLE's RSI rating of nearly 70 so there could be some short term volatility. However, OPEC is rumored to cut back production this summer which could ultimately lift oil above $60 per barrel and permanently off its sub-$50 lows.

Finding a strong oil company amidst the chaos going on with oil prices requires that we identify a few key items. The company needs to have high margins to absorb higher production costs and little or no debt liabilities that could sink an otherwise healthy company. One company that meets these requirements and more is Helmerich & Payne (HP).

This $8.3 billion oil and gas driller hasn't escaped the pain of the oil industry. The stocks performance over the past year is -25%. Looking at it for the past month though, it's up over 21%.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Like the XLE ETF, Helmerich looks overbought with a RSI of 70, but any short term pullback could be a huge buying opportunity for value-minded investors.

Helmerich and Payne is the leading oil and gas driller for the U.S. market constituting a 17% share with Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) being the second largest at 13%. The company has done a good job stacking rigs and as of March 15th, only has 190 active – down from 294 at the start of 2015. Now that the excess capital expenditures have been dealt with, Helmerich should be in a position to grow.

The stock trades at less than 12 times earnings with a long term EPS growth rate of 22.7% giving it a PEG ratio of less than 1 – a strong indicator that the stock could be undervalued. It's also cheaper than the industry average P/E of 16.4 and has higher long term EPS growth expectations as well with the average being 12.7%.

One of the biggest positives the company has going for it is its relatively high margins. It has an operating margin of over 28% – well above that of peers like Nabors Industries (NBR) at just 9%. This allows Helmerich to be flexible when it comes to operating and production costs and can easily absorb the volatility we've been seeing in oil. Helmerich also has almost no long term debt liabilities to speak of at $40 million while cash holdings are in excess of $251 million.

Investors get downside protection in the form of a 3.5% dividend yield as well. While there have been some concerns that the weakness in oil may force Helmerich to cut its dividend, it seems an unlikely scenario given that the company has steadily increased it for the past 42 years and only has a payout ratio of 39%. Given the strength of its balance sheet, I think it's safe to assume that the company will continue paying its dividend out regardless of where oil is trading right now.

Check back to see my next post!

Best,

Daniel Cross

INO.com Contributor - Equities

Disclosure: This contributor does not own any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

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‘Snail mail’ still big business at Philpost; profit up to P640M

2015-04-16T13:51:00.001-07:00

MANILA, Philippines–Lovers may have switched to text messaging and e-mail to keep in touch, but “snail mail” remains big business, according to the chief of the Philippine Postal Corp. (Philpost).

Postmaster General Ma. Josefina de la Cruz said the government-owned and -controlled corporation managing the country’s postal system posted a net income of P640.43 million last year, the bulk of which came from “snail mail,” so called because it takes mailmen several days to hand-deliver the letters and documents nationwide.

“Many people think snail mail is dead, but our biggest business is still snail mail,” De la Cruz said on the sidelines of Philpost’s 23rd anniversary celebrations.

“You’d be amazed at the variety of mail we receive and deliver,” she added.

The Philpost head said about 80 percent of the company’s income come from the traditional mail operations, upending the common notion that text messaging and e-mail, among other new communications technologies, have caused the demise of snail mail.

In fact, the Philpost 2014 annual report indicated that the number of mail posted last year increased to 88.48 million, up 44.56 percent from mail in 2013. The company also delivered 133.25 million mail nationwide last year, a 12.75 percent increase over 2013 figures. The increase explains Philpost’s net income of P640.43 million last year, from P588.96 million in 2013.

Commercial post

The increase in mail volume can be attributed mainly to the increasing correspondence between overseas Filipino workers and their friends, families and colleagues in the Philippines, De la Cruz said.

She noted, however, that personal correspondence, such as love letters and greeting cards from all parts of the world have shrunk in number and now account for only 18 percent of Philpost’s deliveries.

“Nowadays the bulk of what we receive and deliver is commercial post—marketing brochures, statements of account, and even credit cards and checkbooks. The nature of items being sent has changed, but there are still items being sent (or mailed),” she said.

Diversifying

Other significant sources of business are the courts, which routinely send out and receive judicial pleadings through registered mail, a system that allows them to track when a pleading has been sent or received by a respondent.

But although the mail business remains strong, Philpost is bent on diversifying the services it offers in a bid to reinvent itself as a complete logistics solutions provider, the Philpost chief said.

Last year, it launched a next-day parcel and cargo delivery service. The company relaunched the service this year to showcase the 50 delivery vans it recently acquired, all of them equipped with global positioning system (GPS) beacons that are expected to make mail delivery quicker and more efficient.

“Our vans are also ready for e-commerce deliveries,” De la Cruz said.

The Postmaster General said the company was also intent on capitalizing on its over 1,300 post offices nationwide to provide unprecedented last-mile delivery services.

“Our nationwide network is unmatched, which means Philpost can really excel in last-mile delivery. We are (also) converting excess spaces in regional offices into warehouses,” she said, adding that private companies can now view the company’s storage capacity for possible use in their businesses.

Postal money order

Already, private enterprises and several government agencies, among them the Department of Budget and Management, are tapping Philpost’s warehouses in the Bicol region and in Mindanao for their logistics requirements.

Philpost has also inked a deal with the Department of Health for the postal delivery of medicines to the barrios and has initiated a remittance service under its postal money order business, using its more than 300 post offices connected to the Internet to transfer cash instantly.

Irreplaceable part

De la Cruz said the logistics and money order businesses of Philpost constitute just a small part of its business for now, but the company was bullish about the growth of these services in the coming years.

Still, the Philpost chief said snail mail remains an irreplaceable part of the company’s business.

“Even with social media, nothing can totally replace traditional snail mail,” De la Cruz said. “If you are courting me, I won’t say ‘yes’ if you don’t write and send me a (love) letter.”

Netflix - Trust The Force

2015-04-16T09:32:00.001-07:00

Hello traders and MarketClub members everywhere! Today, gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO) gave a buy signal at $1207.59, basis the spot market. You could now be long the gold market if you are a short-term trader.

Many of you may remember that Q1 was a difficult quarter for the Internet portfolio, due mainly to a loss in Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX). Well, I'm happy to report that the Trade Triangle approach has come through once again and made back all of the previous quarter's losses in Netflix.

For those of you old enough to remember the iconic "Star Wars" series, where the old Jedi Master, Obi-Wan Kenobi, calmly instructs Luke to "trust the force." Only in our case, we trust the Trade Triangle technology. Eventually, they get it right and they will reward you. Netflix is a great example of that today.

In addition to both gold and Netflix, I will be taking a close look at the equity markets and the indices that track them. I'll also cover yesterday's big move in crude oil and what's going on with the dollar.

It looks to me like Q2 is going to be a great quarter and don't forget what I said at the beginning of this quarter about gold. "Quarters two and three are without question the most productive for gold and have shown historically over the past eight years to be the ones to focus on. For example in Q2 for every dollar you risked in gold you made $12.91 back."

While it is not possible to guarantee returns, and risks do play a part in any type of trading, the odds would seem to be overwhelmingly in your corner when you focus on the gold market in Q2. Below is the average Q2 returns trading one futures contract both long and short.

Q2 average return over 7 years: + $7,788.00

As always, I appreciate your comments and thoughts that you leave on our blog on the markets, so please feel free to comment and comment often. We will do our very best to answer all of your feedback in a timely manner.

Keep your eyes on gold today.

Every success with MarketClub,

Adam Hewison

President, INO.com

Co-Creator, MarketClub

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Gold Alert!

2015-04-16T08:09:00.001-07:00

After todays action on the XAUGLD price, I hope all people start seeing clearly the level of straightforward manipulation of the gold and other markets.

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Buyers or Sellers

2015-04-16T04:06:00.001-07:00

If you follow our blog, then you are definitely familiar with trader Larry Levin, President of Trading Advantage LLC. We have gotten such a great response from some of his past posts that he has agreed to share one more of his favorite trading tips as a special treat to our viewers. Determining the direction of the market can be tricky and just plain confusing at times, but Larry’s expert opinion keeps it simple and straight-to-the-point.

If you like this article, Larry’s also agreed to give you free access to his award winning book.

A question I often receive is, "How can there be more buyers or sellers at one price? Isn't there a buyer for every seller and a seller for every buyer?"

The answer is yes, but people are forgetting one important thing. There is a bid and an ask (or offer), and only one of them can be traded at a time.

A bid is an expression of willingness to buy at a price; an ask (or offer) is an expression to sell.

If the ES is trading at 1200.50, the bid is either 1200.25 or 1200.50. The answer depends on which way the market has just traded. Let's make it easy and simply say the ES is between 1200.25 & 1200.50, making the bid 1200.25. In order for the market to move from 1200.25 to 1200.50, someone must pay up to get filled.

You may not be in a hurry and attempt to wait to buy 1200.25, but that will usually only happen when the bid/ask drops to 1200.00 & 1200.25 and you are actually filled on the ask.

If you are trying to buy and really want to get filled, you must pay up at the offer or risk missing the trade. Conversely, if you really want to get filled on a sale, you must hit the bid, or reach down to get filled.

Sure, there is someone on the other side of the trade, but without you choosing to reach up and pay the offer the market stands still. Therefore when trades are executed at the offer it is said to be done by the buyers even though there are sellers at that price taking the other side.

Every buy will be filled on the offer and every sell will be filled on the bid, period.

Let's say we once more have a number of 1200.50 and we see that over time (sometimes just a few seconds) the fills were 100 x 1300. We can say that there were 1200 more buyers than sellers at 1200.50 because of how traders reacted to the bid/ask spread when it was at 1200.25 x 1200.50 and higher at 1200.50 x 1200.75 (called the spread.)

When the market was at the lower spread, 1300 buyers reached UP to pay the 1200.50 offer.

When the market was at the higher spread, 100 sellers reach DOWN to sell the 1200.50 bid.

When the spread traded around this price range there truly were more buyers than sellers at 1200.50.

Understanding bid and ask can open up other realms of technical analysis.

There are some traders who will look at the bid and ask order flows to try to get clues to potential movement in the market based on what buyers and sellers are doing. This is often referred to as reading order book flow or depth-of-market.

If you look at the number of orders for each bid and ask around the current market price you can see the probable number of transactions available at those levels. Reading this information is the key to certain kinds of volume based trading systems and other trading methods that follow the book order flow.

Click Here to gain access to Larry's award winning book.

Larry Levin

President & Founder- Trading Advantage

larry@tradingadvantage.com

Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a substantial degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Secrets of Traders LLC provides only training and educational information. By accessing any Secrets of Traders or Trading Advantage content, you agree to be bound by the terms of service. Click Here to review the terms of service.

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Continued reforms to boost PSEi

2015-04-15T15:51:00.003-07:00

MANILA, Philippines–The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) can indeed achieve new highs, mainly through the strength of domestic investors, as long as reforms continue and that a smooth political transition takes place in 2016.

That sentiment was given by officials of the local bourse who shared their thoughts following aggressive targets by President Aquino, who visited the exchange’s Makati City trading floor to celebrate the recent rise of the PSEi above the 8,000 level. Aquino, in his speech, said that he hoped to again make an appearance two more times within his term, or when the index breaches the 9,000 and then 10,000 levels.

“9,000 by yearend is attainable but we have to work doubly hard and hope no external forces will affect it,” Jose T. Pardo, chair of the PSE, said in an interview. “The outlook is still good, there’s a confluence of [good] events.”

He added that a more conservative target was still around 8,500 for 2015. That suggests continued growth for the PSEi, which has been hit by a wave of profit-taking since President Aquino’s visit.

Pardo said domestic investors, who account for about 53 percent of volumes, have the ability and means to push the PSEi higher.

“Business in this country is driven by confidence and for as long as there is confidence in the system, in the political leadership, Filipinos will invest,” Pardo said.

Alejandro Yu, a PSE director and president of stockbrokerage firm R.S. Lim & Co. Inc., agreed that sentiments over the country’s fundamentals were optimistic.

“With the given momentum, we should be okay. As long as there are smooth elections and a smooth transition to carry on reforms,” Yu said.

Aquino, during his visit at the PSE, touted the milestones the exchange has breached since his term began in 2010.

“In almost five years, we have seen the PSE index go from record high to record high,” Aquino said.

He noted that the most recent all-time high was recorded just last Friday, when the index closed at 8,127.48 points, or more than double the index’s value from five years ago.

“In all seriousness, I am certain that no one can dispute the good news, that is the doubling of the PSE index, which stands as a sound reminder of the optimism that continues to surround the Philippines,” Aquino said.

“I have been bullish on the Philippines long before we regained our prominence in the global economy, long before we achieved investment grade and long before the all-time highs the PSE index has recorded. The source of my confidence is the Filipino people,” he added.

To subscribe to the Philippine Daily Inquirer newspaper in the Philippines, call +63 2 896-6000 for Metro Manila and Metro Cebu or email your subscription request here.

Factual errors? Contact the Philippine Daily Inquirer's day desk. Believe this article violates journalistic ethics? Contact the Inquirer's Reader's Advocate. Or write The Readers' Advocate:

c/o Philippine Daily Inquirer Chino Roces Avenue corner Yague and Mascardo Streets, Makati City,Metro Manila, Philippines Or fax nos. +63 2 8974793 to 94

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PH stocks slump on China news

2015-04-15T15:51:00.001-07:00

MANILA, Philippines–Philippine stocks fell Wednesday on a fresh wave of profit-taking and as regional stocks took a hit on slowing growth in China, a major trading partner.

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) sank 1.86 percent, or 150.03 points, to 7,906.46. The broader all-shares index was also down 1.85 percent to 4,520.89.

Losses were across the board, with about 161 companies closing in the red against 31 gainers. Another 37 companies closed unchanged.

Sub-indices all ended negative, with mining and oil leading the way with its 4.13-percent decline while property sank 2.6 percent.

“It’s not panic selling. It’s really continued profit-taking. With the recent run-up, some investors felt we went up too fast too soon,” said Astro del Castillo, First Grade Finance Inc. managing director. He was referring to an eight-day rally that ended this month and saw the PSEi breach the 8,100 level.

“We were also pulled down by the poor sentiment in the region, with concerns on China slowing down,” he added. Del Castillo said the market could consolidate between the 7,800 to 7,900 level.

Continued dips could also lure bargain hunters ahead of the release of first-quarter earnings results, he said.

Universal Robina Corp. on Wednesday took the brunt of the selling as it led actively traded stocks with a decline of 2.28 percent to P214 a share. It was followed by GT Capital Holdings, down 1.75 percent to P1,346; Megaworld Corp., down 3.09 percent to P5.33; Ayala Land Inc., down 2.83 percent to P39.45, and Metrobank, down 1.82 percent to P97.20 per share.–Miguel R. Camus

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Liberty posts P897.14-M loss

2015-04-15T15:06:00.007-07:00

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MANILA, Philippines–Liberty Telecoms Holdings Inc., a listed provider of high-speed Internet services backed by San Miguel Corp. and Qatar Telecom, closed another year in the red while signaling—for the first time—that mounting losses are casting doubts on its business viability.

Liberty said in its 2014 annual report that net losses for the year amounted to P897.14 million against a net loss of P1.45 billion in 2013, while revenues from its core 4G broadband service launched five years ago also declined.

Liberty also said in the annual report that its deficit ballooned to P9.8 billion in 2014 compared with P8.91 billion a year before.

“These conditions indicate the existence of a material uncertainty that may cast significant doubt about the group’s ability to continue as a going concern,” Liberty said.

For now, its shareholders said they were “committed” to supporting the company in providing 4G Internet services, the company’s report showed.

“The group’s major shareholders, however, fully understand that these losses are expected,” it said.

Liberty’s internal assessment comes as domestic telecommunication giants like Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. and Globe Telecom ramp up investments in the mobile Internet business.

Liberty, which is 49.76 percent held by SMC subsidiary Vega Telecom and 32.9 percent-owned by Qtel West Bay Holdings, is due to exit corporate rehabilitation in December 2016, the filing showed. Miguel R. Camus

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MPIC hikes Meralco stake

2015-04-15T15:06:00.005-07:00

MANILA, Philippines–Manuel V. Pangilinan-led Metro Pacific Investments Corp. (MPIC) has increased its direct exposure in the power distribution sector after buying shares of Manila Electric Co. (Meralco), the country’s largest electricity retailer, from an affiliate at a 10.9-percent discount.

MPIC, which also operates tollroads, a water utility firm in Metro Manila and the country’s biggest chain of private hospitals, said in a stock exchange filing Wednesday that it had agreed to acquire 112.71 million shares of Meralco, equivalent to a 10-percent stake, for about P235 a share, or a total of P26.5 billion.

The deal will increase MPIC’s direct stake in Meralco to 15 percent and will be mainly funded by P25 billion in “new” 10-year bilateral term-loan facilities, it said.

The acquired shares were held by a special purpose company called Beacon Electric Asset Holdings Inc., jointly owned by MPIC and PLDT Communications and Energy Ventures, a unit of Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co., also chaired by Pangilinan.

That acquisition price, which MPIC said complied with its internal corporate governance code, was at a 10.9-percent discount to Meralco’s closing price before the deal was announced.

Payments to Beacon Electric will be made on a staggered basis: P1 billion immediately, P17 billion by June this year and the balance by July 2016, it said.

“We have previously indicated MPIC’s intention to deleverage Beacon and have concluded the optimum way to achieve this is to acquire more of Meralco from Beacon,” MPIC CEO Jose Ma. Lim said in the filing.

“The deepening of our investment in Meralco is reflective of our expectation of growth in this business, especially from much-needed power generation in Luzon,” he added.

The combined stake of PLDT and MPIC in Meralco stood at about 49.96 percent, the filing showed.

For Metro Pacific alone, its direct and indirect stake in Meralco, which includes its ownership in Beacon, would be at 32.48 percent while PLDT Communications and Energy’s stake will fall to 17.48 percent.

The electricity distributor’s other major shareholders include the Gokongwei family’s JG Summit Holdings Inc. and the Lopez clan’s First Philippine Holdings Corp.

Beacon Electric was established to serve as the holding company for both MPIC and PLDT’s Meralco shares, but recent moves by the former suggest the Pangilinan-led group was gradually changing course.

Nevertheless, Lim said in the statement that MPIC, for now, “retains its partnership with [ PLDT Communications] for the rest of our investment in Meralco.”

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Asia seen to continue leading global growth

2015-04-15T15:06:00.003-07:00

MANILA, Philippines–Emerging markets like the Philippines are urged to focus on pursuing further reforms that address infrastructure gaps and ensure financial stability as preparation for continued instability in global economic conditions.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund said the Asia-Pacific region would continue to lead the world’s growth this year, although China’s slowing expansion might spill over to other markets.

“Asia’s growth is forecast to hold steady in 2015, and the region is expected to continue outperforming the rest of the world over the medium term,” the IMF said in the WEO report released this week.

The multilateral lender said the region would benefit from lower world oil prices, strengthening external demand, and still-accommodative financial conditions despite some recent tightening.

The region’s economies, including the Philippines, still face risks despite the relatively rosy outlook. Elevated household and corporate debt amid higher real interest rates and a strong US dollar could amplify shocks, the IMF said.

“Policymakers should maintain prudent frameworks and build buffers to enhance resilience, and implement reforms to support demand rebalancing and relieve bottlenecks to growth,” the IMF said.

Growth decelerated last year to 5.6 percent, from 5.9 percent in 2013. While growth picked up across much of the region, slowdowns in several large economies, including China, Indonesia and Japan, provided a counterweight.

In 2015, the sharp fall in world commodity prices will support GDP growth across the region.

With the region being a net oil importer, the drop in oil prices will generate a windfall spur to purchasing power of about 1.7 percent of regional gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, providing support to domestic spending and raising current accounts.

The Philippines is projected to grow by 6.7 percent this year, the IMF said earlier this month. This was slightly better than the IMF’s previous forecast of a growth of 6.6 percent.

As a whole, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (Asean) five major emerging economies, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam will grow by 6 percent this year, IMF projections show.

The IMF said Asian emerging markets with large infrastructure gaps should consider giving public investment spending priority over easing monetary policy.

It added that strong regulation and supervision, protecting financial stability may also require proactive use of macroprudential policies to tame the effects of the financial cycle on asset prices, credit and aggregate demand.

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Claim of command

2015-04-15T15:06:00.001-07:00

Last Tuesday, our leader Benigno Simeon (aka BS) banged the bell at the Philippine Stock Exchange, signaling the start of action on the trading floor.

What was the big deal? It seemed that, since the PSE index hit the 8,000-point level recently, it should be time for a little celebration—care of Malacañang.

The index, a grouping of selected stocks, is an important tool in the securities market to indicate the trends, going toward either investment heaven or financial Ebola.

In his awe-inspiring bell ringing feat at the PSE, our dear leader, BS, noted that in the past five years during his watch, the PSE index has doubled.

Yesterday, or just a day after his bell ringing at the PSE, the index began to show a marked downturn.

I could not be certain if the downturn could just be a plain coincidence or an indication of the trust and confidence of investors in our dear leader, BS, and the boast of his boys about his economic management prowess.

As of lunchtime yesterday, the index already dropped by 129 points, staying below the 8,000-mark.

Again—that index level was the perfect reason for our dear leader, BS, to once again ring the PSE bell, this time to celebrate his leadership and his “Daang Matuwid” slogan.

His popularity ratings seemed going down somewhere there in the vicinity of purgatory.

To think, the “selling” trend at the PSE yesterday chopped off a relatively huge chunk of the PSE index, even as our dear leader, BS, could be the only head of state in the entire universe to use a stock market crystal ball.

In his speech, he reportedly made a forecast on where the stock market should be heading—a PSE index of between 9,000 and 10,000 points by the end of his term next year.

No finance or economic official in his right mind would dare to give even just a little sign language to indicate the vaguest of hints on the possible direction of the stock market.

The reason: such statements could be taken by the public as an official encouragement for everybody to buy stocks.

In this world where market analysis could be regarded as the closest practical application of fortune telling in the real world, nobody would ever dare to forecast the stock market with much certainty. Really, there would always be a caveat!

Even professional market analysts and traders could only talk about “factors” that might affect the market, careful to cite both the rewards and the risks.

As people in the financial sector loved to say, predicting the stock market would always be a task just for a fool or a retardate.

From what I gathered, the celebration at the PSE last Tuesday was actually “suggested” by the Palace bright boys to the PSE chain of command.

Aside from the ringing of the ceremonial bell, he just had to deliver the obligatory speech to trumpet his economic management record and corruption busting illusion.

It was just that our contacts in the financial sector had a bit of reservation regarding our dear leader, BS, and his direct hand in creating active trading in the market.

The comprehensive capital market reform program had its conception during the time of former President Corazon Aquino, which the administration of former President Fidel Ramos implemented relentlessly.

During the time of former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, her cute administration egged the PSE to acquire the latest trading technology from the New York Stock Exchange, and she personally accompanied the PSE officials to seal the deal with NYSE.

And, of course, former President Joseph Estrada gave us the BW price manipulation scandal.

Our contacts wonder whether there is something concrete that our leader, BS, really did for the stock market, except to claim that “confidence” built up in the market under his command.

The last time he rang the PSE bell, which was in 2012, only PSE officials were present plus a handful of Cabinet members such as Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima.

Last Tuesday, he had a high-powered audience. From what I gathered, the PSE called on the biggest of the big names in business to attend the event.

Among them were Teresita Sy-Coson (SM group), Lance Gokongwei (JG Summit), Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala (Ayala group), Jonathan T. Gotianun (Filinvest), and Ramon Ang (San Miguel group).

Bank presidents Cezar Consing (BPI) and Lorenzo Tan (RCBC) were also present, and the right hand man of MVP, Jose Lim (Metro Pacific).

Also there were Antonieta Ibe and Teresita Herbosa (SEC), Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima, Trade Secretary Gregory Domingo and GSIS president Robert Vergara.

It never happened before, a group of powerful individuals just sitting idly by while somebody talked about his perceived achievements.

In the stock market, some analysts were already sending warnings of possible correction—meaning the index would drop—even before our leader, BS, talked about the index hitting the 9,000 to 10,000 during his term.

At a current PE ratio of 25 times of Philippine stocks in general, some analysts view the market as overpriced, because the accepted standard worldwide has always been that the PE ratio of 20 times would be a pricey market.

In the local stock market, you could see a PE ratio of 67 times for a well known property company, not to mention a PE ratio of 360 times for some speculative stocks.

Yet our dear leader, BS, could talk about the index hitting 10,000 points next year.

Perhaps the SEC or the PSE could investigate him for market manipulation? You wish!

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EDC bags perks for Burgos wind project

2015-04-15T14:25:00.003-07:00

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MANILA, Philippines–A subsidiary of Energy Development Corp. is all set to get incentives for its 150-megawatt Burgos wind renewable energy project in Ilocos Norte.

Citing a certificate from the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), EDC said its unit, EDC Burgos Wind Power Corp., was entitled to the Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) rate of P8.53 a kilowatt-hour (kWh) for its wind project.

EDC Burgos Wind Power Corp. is a wholly owned subsidiary of EDC.

Subject to adjustments as may be approved by the ERC, the project is entitled to the FIT rate for the power produced from Nov. 11, 2014, to Nov. 10, 2034, EDC said.

Distribution utilities all over the country, including the Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) that operates in Metro Manila and nearby areas, are starting to collect FIT allowance from customers as a fixed charge reflected on monthly bills.

Such fees are pooled and will be used to pay guaranteed rates (a form of incentive) to renewable energy developers to encourage similar investments.

The project is EDC’s first foray into the wind energy business and is its single largest investment to date.

A total of $450 million was invested by EDC in the Burgos wind project, including the $315 million in project financing with leading international and local banks led by EKF, Denmark’s export credit agency.

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