tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-84747565573718760052011-12-29T04:45:41.546-05:00Follow the internal time clock of the market: technical and fundamental analysis on selected futures, stocks and commodities.WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.comBlogger34125ValueAreahttp://feedburner.google.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-37374925393766210902009-01-01T10:15:00.000-05:002011-05-19T09:49:29.832-04:002011-05-19T09:49:29.832-04:00

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com45http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2009/10/new-blog.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-15750619561128687762008-09-09T09:07:00.003-04:002008-09-09T09:14:11.962-04:002008-09-09T09:14:11.962-04:00

Palladium today is down almost 10% falling to its long term support from 2002 lows.It seems like the Palladium market at these prices is anticipating a severe recession possibly worst than the last one and possibly a global recession causing slowing auto sales in every country, not just in the US. In the meantime the stock market is pricing only a mild recession with the SPX down "only" 19% from

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com5http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2008/09/palladium-on-long-term-support.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-61986036286320553582008-09-08T14:48:00.005-04:002008-09-08T15:01:33.360-04:002008-09-08T15:01:33.360-04:00

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WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com6http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2008/09/september-october-2008-stock-market.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-71512976483141115642008-09-04T16:03:00.003-04:002008-09-04T16:07:52.857-04:002008-09-04T16:07:52.857-04:00

Today the area of support around 1260 finally was broken, the Bear is back.One should look to sell bounces now with first target 1224. The area 1252-1265 is now a strong reistance area.

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com1http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2008/09/bear-is-back.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-16703259374169600732008-09-02T16:22:00.006-04:002008-09-02T16:39:24.447-04:002008-09-02T16:39:24.447-04:00

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WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com1http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2008/09/end-of-this-late-summer-correction.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-90638648237452025172008-08-28T16:08:00.005-04:002008-08-28T16:15:57.330-04:002008-08-28T16:15:57.330-04:00

The SPX bear market reached a temporary bottom on July 15 at 1200, since then I can count an A-B-C correction topping at 1313 on Aug. 11 retracing 50% of the 1430-1200 down-move from the end of may to July 15. The A-B-C correction was probably an adequate price correction but not enough as far as the duration of the corrective pattern is concerned. After July 15 the SPX started to move lower

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com1http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2008/08/s-500-corrective-pattern-tentative.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-16423822006989204002008-08-18T10:10:00.007-04:002008-08-18T10:23:05.910-04:002008-08-18T10:23:05.910-04:00

We are living in a world of increasing geopolitical tensions (terrorism, nuclear proliferation, new superpowers’ confrontation, oil crises, new cold war…): the world is changing and a new international equilibrium must still be found.. The latest front in this scenario and the most immediate source of potential troubles is the Russia-Georgia crisis with the external involvement of the USA and

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com1http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2008/08/russia-georgia-nato-crisis-how.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-66611419868776985382007-11-09T09:04:00.001-05:002008-12-08T16:31:10.926-05:002008-12-08T16:31:10.926-05:00

Canada's trade balance with the world contracted to its lowest level since December 1998, as exports declined and imports increased. With imports rising and exports falling, the nation's trade balance with the world narrowed to $2.6 billion, falling to its lowest level since December 1998. The trade surplus with the United States shrank to $6.2 billion. Apparently the strong CAD is starting

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com2http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2007/11/canadian-international-trade-for.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-1188836065515041482007-11-07T15:30:00.000-05:002008-12-08T16:31:11.076-05:002008-12-08T16:31:11.076-05:00

After a stellar rise from 1.020 to 1.1050 (just over the last 10 trading days) the Canadian Dollar may have finally formed a blow off top today. When the last bear threw in the towel early this morning at 1,1050 after the Chinese officials overnight statements about the “death” of the US dollar, the loonie started to bleed and move lower closing below 1,08 for the day. Today action may remind

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com0http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2007/11/canadian-dollar-blow-off-top.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-61710972027473286162007-11-05T12:24:00.001-05:002008-12-08T16:31:11.217-05:002008-12-08T16:31:11.217-05:00

On Wednesday October 24, I warned in my SWC update about some downside risk in Q3 results and I suggested to reduce SWC at around 10.6 in order to load at lower prices after the Q3 earnings release. I was right, the company badly missed the analysts’ EPS estimate ending the quarter with a loss of 0.12 per share (vs. a consensus estimate of a loss of just 0.03 per share) and the stock is tumbling

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com0http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2007/11/stillwater-mining-q3-results.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-36857420973488397332007-10-24T10:44:00.000-04:002008-12-08T16:31:11.594-05:002008-12-08T16:31:11.594-05:00

Stillwater Mining Company (a NYSE listed company with trading symbol SWC) is engaged in the development, extraction, processing, refining and marketing of palladium, platinum and associated metals (platinum group metals or PGMs) from a geological formation in south central Montana known as the J-M Reef and from the recycling of spent catalytic converters. I have started my “coverage” on SWC at

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com0http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2007/10/stillwater-mining-update.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-32143098891544202982007-10-23T08:53:00.000-04:002008-12-08T16:31:11.992-05:002008-12-08T16:31:11.992-05:00

After two consecutive decreases in June and July, total retail sales increased 0.7% in August (consensus estimate was +0.5%),excluding sales from dealers of new, used and recreational vehicles and auto parts, retail sales increased by 0.3% as expected. The Canadian Dollar is sharply up from yesterday recovering most of yesterday losses and trading at 1,0380 close to last week high. The market

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com0http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2007/10/cad-rebound.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-43803850963291275242007-10-22T10:57:00.000-04:002008-12-08T16:31:12.445-05:002008-12-08T16:31:12.445-05:00

Today the Canada's dollar drop the most in two years falling from a 33-year high hit last Friday. My Friday’s call to sell the loonie, was sure a risky and contrarian call but a nice one! Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge yesterday said its climb has been ``abnormally quick.'' The US Dollar index also rebounded from Friday’s lows…the G7 lack of support for the greenback was already discounted.

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com0http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2007/10/post-g7-fx-update-cad-and-dollar-index.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-59131247688951823882007-10-19T08:23:00.000-04:002008-12-08T16:31:13.713-05:002008-12-08T16:31:13.713-05:00

The September Canadian CPI Index has just been released: owing largely to higher gasoline prices in September 2007 compared with low levels in September 2006, consumer prices rose by 2.5% during the same period. This was a sharp acceleration from the 1.7% increase posted in August. Excluding gasoline, consumer prices rose by a more moderate 2.0% between September 2006 and September 2007.

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com0http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2007/10/more-on-cad.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-47177034649310101792007-09-25T11:39:00.000-04:002008-12-08T16:31:15.807-05:002008-12-08T16:31:15.807-05:00

Stillwater Mining Company (a NYSE listed company with trading symbol SWC) is engaged in the development, extraction, processing, refining and marketing of palladium, platinum and associated metals (platinum group metals or PGMs) from a geological formation in south central Montana known as the J-M Reef and from the recycling of spent catalytic converters. I have started my “blog-coverage” on SWC

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com2http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2007/09/stillwater-mining.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-46710902402795393652007-09-19T13:47:00.001-04:002007-09-19T14:14:05.474-04:002007-09-19T14:14:05.474-04:00

The Palladium market is very little compared to other precious metals markets: for example Gold Comex Futures open interest equals to 37 million ounces (or 46% of gold world mining output per year), while, in comparison, Palladium Comex futures open interest equals just to 1,6 million ounces (or 23% of Palladium world mining output per year). Another example: Palladium ETF holdings are

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com0http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2007/09/palladium-trading.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-80588817757082212942007-09-14T16:27:00.000-04:002008-12-08T16:31:17.343-05:002008-12-08T16:31:17.343-05:00

The latest COT report for the palladium market released today ( data as of Sept 11, 2007) shows that Commercial traders have reduced their short hedging by 65K ounces, Non commercial traders have reduced their long holdings by 75K ounces. The Non Commercial traders are now 675K ounces net long (525K ounces below the end of July peak of 1,2Moz) : the speculative long liquidation is continuing at

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com0http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2007/09/palladium-lease-rates-backwardation.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-77663310557142304222007-09-13T07:08:00.000-04:002008-12-08T16:31:17.534-05:002008-12-08T16:31:17.534-05:00

I continue to collect evidence of improving fundamentals for the Palladium market: a-the EU imports of Palladium in the first 5 months of 2007 are 20% higher than in the comparable period last year.b-China motor vehicle production in the first half of 2007 is more than 20% above the comparable period last year.c-South African PGM producers have forecasted lower than expected Palladium

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com0http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2007/09/palladium-market-update-3.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-70330104306900319382007-09-12T16:23:00.000-04:002008-12-08T16:31:17.766-05:002008-12-08T16:31:17.766-05:00

Natural Gas futures (October 07 contract) today closed yesterday at 6,43 up 50 cents from yesterday. That is a full dollar up move in just two days (a 20% move): I am happy with that and I think it’s time to lock in a nice profit for those who went long on my Natural Gas recommendation at the end of august. The charts looks still good and there may be some continuation, however my short

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com0http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2007/09/natural-gas-take-nice-profit.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-45644612551463474682007-09-11T14:08:00.000-04:002008-12-08T16:31:18.436-05:002008-12-08T16:31:18.436-05:00

Thanks to the falling dollar a strong precious metals rally has began: the Gold futures (December contract) made a new high today, Platinum is also rallying. Silver and Palladium are way behind ….while Platinum is just 4% below its year high, Silver and Palladium are still 15% below their contract high. See table below. Why? The common view is that Silver and Palladium may suffer more from

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com2http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2007/09/precious-metals-rally-palladium-to.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-59306624681158145672007-09-10T15:03:00.000-04:002008-12-08T16:31:18.751-05:002008-12-08T16:31:18.751-05:00

You can call it a day. Earlier this morning the Natural Gas futures (October contract NGV7) was close to one-year lows of $5.249/MMBtu after heavy selling overnight. The negative sentiment from the end of last week was weighing on prices this morning as well: last Friday Natural Gas storage report showed a storage level 10.4% above its five-year average and 1.3% above last year's levels (see

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com0http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2007/09/natural-gas-market-update-2.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-54071160168381617222007-09-10T08:54:00.000-04:002008-12-08T16:31:18.938-05:002008-12-08T16:31:18.938-05:00

Earlier this morning in Europe Platinum rose to a five-week high in London on increased autocatalyst demand from automakers. Palladium also gained but it is lagging Platinum.Platinum has recovered most of the ground lost during last August fall while Palladium is well behind. I believe that news coming from China should soon start to have a positive impact on Palladium as well: during the first

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com0http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2007/09/china-and-palladium-update-1.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-2011651615774981012007-09-06T14:06:00.000-04:002008-12-08T16:31:21.387-05:002008-12-08T16:31:21.387-05:00

This report analyses the upcoming impact on the Palladium market of China industrialisation and motorisation over the next 20 years. China is already a net importer of Palladium and Platinum as shown by the charts below based on UN trade data: CPM estimates that 800,000 ounces of palladium were used in China in 2006, up about one-third from 600,000 ounces in 2006, CPM

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com2http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2007/09/china-and-palladium.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-31148067361457547232007-09-01T05:00:00.001-04:002008-12-08T16:31:21.605-05:002008-12-08T16:31:21.605-05:00

This week physical Palladium price climbed from 327 to 344 following the general metal markets up, with no major specific news. The latest COT report (including the trading session of August 28th) show large speculators reducing their net long holdings by 71,000 troy ounces last week and commercial traders reducing their net short hedging by 71,000 troy ounces as well: the investment demand of

WallStreetWatchmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06681175249301805377noreply@blogger.com0http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2007/09/palladium-market-update.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8474756557371876005.post-65772527253502589322007-09-01T04:28:00.000-04:002008-12-08T16:31:22.105-05:002008-12-08T16:31:22.105-05:00

Natural Gas futures (October contract) closed yesterday unchanged from last Friday. This week trading range was 5,2 – 5,8. The market appears to be consolidating at the lows, however, any tentative rally this week was followed by heavy selling. The latest Natural gas storage report released by the EIA yesterday for the week ended August 24, 2007 showed inventories 11% higher than the last 5

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