Hmm…curious change building worth watching next few weeks. Few are aware but there has been a long-term correlation of Fed Funds Rate(FF) and the Discounted T-Bill Rate(DTB3) with the Fed following within a few weeks whenever the DTB3 has shifted enough above or below the FF. With the drop in crude prices, investors immediately begin to anticipate a decline in inflation expectations and the DTB3 declines accordingly. This has now declined in a short period by 10bps to 3.99%. Another drop of 11bps brings DTB3 to 3.88% which removes pressure for the Fed to make any additional adjustment. Should crude prices decline even more as the administration claims is likely post-Mid-Terms, the DTB3 will decline and the Fed Rate goes under pressure for a decline. This is worth watching!

My guess at this point is a rate decline in mid-2027, but this will be dependent on crude prices for this rapid shift to decline from the recent rise. Manufacturing production build out removes crude pressure on the supply chains due to lower crude expense in global supply chains. That is, lower supply line transportation cost results in lower overall manufacturing cost. This will translate into lower overall production prices and likely some deflation. Net/net this could prove beneficial for US housing market should mtg rates decline with a decline in inflation. All this bares close watching but provides intriguing fodder for higher equity prices and even further economic expansion.

Sentiment is what drives equities higher. Rising sentiment is correlated to rising equity prices. The recent 3Q26 Real GDP report annualized to 3.4% was quite positive. Adjusting for imported machinery demand in the US to build data centers and manufacturing facilities, 3Q26 Real GDP is annualized over 6%.

Finally, govt policies are emerging as a strong economic trend likely to stretch several years.

Pershing Square Holdings published its Third Quarter 2026 Portfolio Review on November 2, 2026, signed by Bill Ackman and Ryan Israel. Read the letter.

Currently the company is priced ~7% below NAV

Key takeaways

• Q3 was good, but 2026 is still a down year. NAV returned +3.5% in Q3 vs +2.3% for the S&P 500. Year to date through Sep 30, net return was -9.6% (gross -8.6%), while the letter says the S&P 500 was up 13%.
• The portfolio has turned over. Seven new investments this year, “about three times our typical average”: Microsoft, Netflix, Mastercard, Visa, ICE, S&P Global and Alcon. An eighth is being built after quarter end and is not named.
• Top holdings (% of net assets): Microsoft 15.0%, Uber 14.0%, Meta 11.2%, Amazon 11.2%, Brookfield 11.2%, Restaurant Brands 9.4%, HHH 9.2%, Vantage (HHH preferred) 8.2%. Total exposure is 126.0% of net assets.
• Q3 drivers: Microsoft (+5.2%) and Meta (+3.2%) helped most. Brookfield (-1.8%), Fannie Mae (-1.8%), Freddie Mac (-1.6%) and Uber (-0.8%) hurt most.
• Fannie and Freddie are down 61% year to date. The letter blames the administration staying quiet on ending conservatorship. Ackman still says they could rise “more than 10-fold” and admits “our 13-year holding period has been a long time to wait.”
• Big theme: six pages arguing hyperscaler AI spending is “offensive rather than defensive,” meaning consensus counts the capex cost but not the revenue it will bring.
• Portfolio math: Pershing Square estimates its holdings grow EPS about 20% a year over 3 to 5 years at 20x earnings, vs 13% at 20x for the S&P 500. These are its own estimates, and the letter says they are “inherently imprecise.”

What it means for HHH

HHH common is 9.2% of net assets and the Vantage (HHH preferred) line is another 8.2%, about 17.4% together. HHH stock was +3% in Q3 and -8% year to date. Vantage added +0.6% to PSH in Q3.

At the September annual meeting, HHH said it will “substantially” reduce the capital intensity of Howard Hughes Communities by selling assets and forming joint ventures while keeping operational control. That unit becomes a fee-generating real estate asset management platform, and the freed capital goes to Vantage.

The letter says: “We estimate the current after-tax value of HHH’s real estate assets to be about $5 billion.” It targets Vantage book value per share growth of 20% or more a year. Marc Grandisson is Vantage’s Executive Chairman, and David Gansberg is the future CEO once his garden leave ends.

Not in the letter: timing, deal sizes or pricing for the asset sales, and any HHH earnings estimate (it shows N.M.). My read is that HHH is being repositioned from a community developer into an insurance-led holding company, so book value per share is the number to watch. Seaport Entertainment appears only in the holdings table (0.8%, $100.8M), with no commentary.

Not in the letter

NAV per share, the discount to NAV, buyback amounts, and PSUS. Hertz and Chipotle are not named. Universal Music appears only as a year-to-date loser (-2.7%). Alphabet appears only in the AI spending discussion, not as a holding. A separate half-year report says Pershing Square exited Universal Music and Alphabet in the first half and Hertz in July.

Look, Apple is simply a machine.  They paid down over $18B in debt/paper and bought back $86B in stock.  My only concern is Siri AI because well, Siri kinda sucks. This may be user error on my part but it need a serious fix even just simply understanding speech before I believe it’ll be a driver of results.  That said, it should be a relatively easy fix.

I also believe our apple watches are going to be more important to our health maintenance in the coming years. I’m thinking about preventative effects like monitoring vitals and directly notifying your Dr of any material changes before a medical event happens.

It will essentially make them a must own for many people.

 Summary: This was John Ternus’s first call as CEO. Revenue was $114.5B, up 11.7% and a record for a September quarter. Diluted EPS was $2.10, up 13.5%. Fiscal 2026 revenue reached a record $478.8B, up 15.1%, and FY EPS was $8.98, up 20%. iPhone grew 17.5%, Mac 23.7%, and Services hit a record at +9.8%. iPad fell 10.4% and Wearables fell 7.9%. Gross margin was 47.9%, which includes about 1 point of help from tariff refunds. For the December quarter, Apple expects revenue up 7–10% (its “best quarter for revenue in the history of the company”), Services up 8–9%, and gross margin of 45–46%. The margin step-down is mostly from memory costs. Operating expenses are guided to $20.4–20.8B, up 11–13%. The stock fell about 2–3% after hours.

Opportunities

• Product cycle led by iPhone Duo and iPhone 18 Pro. Ternus: “One of the greatest testaments to that is the all-new iPhone Duo, the most transformational iPhone since the original.” From the call: iPhone revenue was $57.6B, up 17.5%, with September-quarter records for upgraders worldwide and in the U.S., China Mainland and India. COO Sabih Khan said demand for the Duo is still ahead of supply (“iPhone Duo is constrained as of today”).
• Mac has momentum. Ternus: “We have never sold more Macs in a fiscal year than we did this time, which is a truly remarkable testament to these incredible products.” From the call: Mac revenue was $10.8B, up 23.7%, with a September-quarter record for customers new to Mac. Apple also landed its “biggest education deal ever for Mac” with the Philippines Department of Education, which will deploy 170,000 MacBook Neos.
• Services and the installed base. Ternus: “I’m delighted with where our services business is today and where it’s going.” From the call: Services revenue was a record $31.6B, up 9.8%. Services gross margin was 76%. Paid subscriptions topped 1.5B, the active device base topped 2.5B, and the App Store averaged nearly 1B weekly visitors.
• Recovery in Greater China. Ternus: “We were very pleased with the performance in Greater China, right? Revenue was up 21% during the September quarter, which was a quarterly record.” From the financial statements: Greater China revenue was $17.5B, up 21.0%. It was up 28% for the full year.
• Siri AI and paid AI tiers. Ternus: “Siri AI marks a new chapter in AI at Apple.” On how it could make money: “Anyone who needs greater capacity will be able to purchase expanded access in the future.” From the call: Siri AI launched in beta in U.S. English in September and added French, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese and Spanish in October. iCloud+ bundles with Apple TV and Arcade are now offered in more than 100 countries.
• Record holiday-quarter guide and capital returns. Parekh: “We expect this to be the best quarter for revenue in the history of the company.” From the call: December-quarter revenue is guided up 7–10%. Apple returned $28B to shareholders in the quarter ($24B in buybacks and $3.9B in dividends). The dividend is $0.27 per share, payable Nov 16.

Risks

• Memory costs are pressuring margins. Ternus: “What we’re seeing with memory pricing right now is unprecedented.” Parekh added: “we expect the memory costs to continue to be a challenge for us as we look in the December quarter.” From the call: gross margin is guided to 45–46%, down from 47.9%. Leaving out tariff refunds, margin already fell about 1 point from the June quarter because of memory. Purchase obligations rose by $33B from June to September.
• Supply limits on Mac, iPad and Duo. Khan: “For the December quarter, we expect constraints on Mac and iPad, primarily driven by memory, as demand has been higher than what we expected.”From the call: iPad revenue was $6.2B, down 10.4%, partly because of supply constraints. Khan said it is “really hard to predict” when Duo supply will catch up with demand.
• Services growth is slowing, with App Store and regulatory pressure. Parekh: “we did see some headwinds in mobile gaming that we’ve talked about before and expect to see those continue into the December quarter.” From the call: Services is guided to 8–9% growth, down from 9.8%. FX cut about 4 points from Services growth between the March and September quarters, with roughly another 0.5 point expected. Apple also flagged the U.S. court ruling on App Store link-outs and business-model changes in some countries.
• AI spending is raising costs. Parekh: “As we continue to roll out Siri AI to more customers, the associated cloud costs will be recognized through services cost of sales.” From the financial statements: operating expenses were $19.2B, up 20.6%, with R&D up 32.3% to $11.7B.
• Price increases could hurt demand. Parekh: “We did reluctantly make the decision to change pricing on a number of our products, starting with the iPad and Mac in the June timeframe, and then iPhone more recently in September.” He also said it is “really early to really assess any elasticity impact at this stage.”
• The tariff-refund boost won’t repeat. Parekh: “As of the September quarter, we have received the vast majority of the refunds related to tariffs paid.” From the release: tariff refunds added about 1 point to gross margin and $0.05 to EPS this quarter.
• Wearables are still shrinking. Parekh: “Wearables, home, and accessories revenue was $8.3 billion, down 8% year-over-year, as we faced a difficult compare against the launch of the Watch SE 3 and the AirPods Pro 3 in the prior year.”

YoY metrics (fiscal Q4 2026 vs Q4 2025; balance sheet at Sep 26, 2026 vs Sep 27, 2025)

Why the changes over 5% happened: – Revenue (+11.7%): iPhone 18 Pro/Duo launch demand and price increases, Mac strength from MacBook Neo and MacBook Pro, and Services records. This happened despite about 2 points of FX headwind and supply limits. iPad and Wearables were hurt by tough comparisons with last year’s launches. – Net income (+11.8%) and EPS (+13.5%): Gross margin dollars rose 13.4%, helped by the tariff refund (+$0.05). That was partly offset by opex up 20.6% from AI-focused R&D. EPS grew faster than net income because diluted shares fell about 1.6% from buybacks. – Operating income (+9.9%): Gross-margin gains were partly offset by the jump in R&D. – Total assets (+12.6%): Inventories rose to $14.5B from $5.7B. Management didn’t comment on inventory directly, but said purchase obligations rose $33B “as we work to improve supply.” Vendor non-trade receivables rose about $6.7B. Intangible assets rose to $20.3B from $11.1B, and the statements don’t explain that increase. – Equity (+52.0%): Net income of $132.2B for the year was more than the $86.4B in buybacks plus $15.7B in dividends. As a result, retained earnings went from a $14.3B deficit to a $13.7B positive balance. – Debt (−18.8%): Apple repaid $12.4B of term debt and $5.9B of commercial paper during the year and issued no new term debt. Management said it no longer targets “net cash neutral.”

WMB just keeps chugging along and recent acquisitions are only going to bolster its activity in the SE and eastern US.  This is a solid dividend payer whose outlook continues to grow and carries a conservative valuation.  No reason to even consider selling this

Summary: GAAP net income was $699M ($0.56 EPS), up 8.2% and 5.7%. Adjusted EPS was $0.54, up 10.2%. Adjusted EBITDA was a third-quarter record at $2.039B, up 6.2%. AFFO was $1.589B, up 9.7%, with dividend coverage of 2.42x. Williams closed the Momentum Midstream acquisition in the Haynesville ($2.816B cash), said the Socrates power project will be fully in service by mid-November, and announced Transco and Clay Basin expansions. It reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $8.3–8.5B and said it is tracking toward the upper half. Leverage rose to 3.80x from 3.73x.

Opportunities

• Power generation for data centers and industrial customers. Zamarin: “As the first of many power projects, Socrates demonstrates our ability to deliver fast, reliable and scalable solutions for customers facing rapidly growing power demand, and we are actively working to commercialize additional power projects, which we expect to announce soon.” From the release: Adjusted EBITDA for Transmission, Power & Gulf rose 8.8% to $1.030B on “new power generation revenues.” The Socrates Plato North project is on track to be in service by mid-November.
• Haynesville growth through Momentum. Zamarin: “We also closed the Momentum Midstream acquisition ahead of schedule, enhancing our premier footprint in the Haynesville — America’s fastest-growing natural gas basin…” From the release: West segment Adjusted EBITDA rose 9.3% to $401M. West gathering volumes were 7.18 Bcf/d versus 6.14 a year ago.
• More Transco projects and storage. Zamarin: “…we announced new Transco projects and expansions, advanced a storage expansion at Clay Basin, and placed four pipeline projects into service.”From the release: Southeast Supply Enhancement II (150+ MMcf/d), Garden Connector upsized by 84 MMcf/d, 413 MMcf/d of capacity added across four projects, and a 9.4 Bcf Clay Basin storage expansion.
• Guidance and long-term growth target. Zamarin: “Our performance to date, combined with a growing slate of projects set to come online, gives us strong confidence in our ability to achieve our long-term 11% plus Adjusted EBITDA compound annual growth rate through 2030.” From the release: year-to-date Adjusted EBITDA is $6.214B, up 8.7%, and the full-year outlook is the upper half of $8.3–8.5B.

Risks (the release has no management quotes on risks; the lines quoted below are release or presentation text)

• Leverage and heavy capex. Release: “The leverage ratio midpoint for 2026 is approximately 3.75x.” From the release: quarter-end debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA was 3.80x versus 3.73x. Third-quarter capital investment excluding acquisitions was $2.727B versus $1.053B. 2026 growth capex guidance is $7.3–7.9B.
• Higher costs from deals. Release: “An increase in operating and administrative expenses, including $63 million of acquisition and JV formation costs, as well as costs from acquired businesses and new projects.” From the income statement: G&A rose 63.7% to $275M.
• Volatile marketing results. Presentation: “Decreased earnings due to unfavorable realized derivatives in gas marketing storage.” From the release: Gas & NGL Marketing Adjusted EBITDA was $4M versus $11M.
• Weaker volumes in some basins and lost asset income. Presentation: “…partially offset by lower Eagle Ford volumes, lower DJ volumes and the sale of Permian assets.” The “Other” segment’s Adjusted EBITDA fell 31% to $62M because the South Mansfield upstream assets were sold.
• GAAP earnings include a one-time gain. GAAP net income includes an $83M gain on the sale of a Permian gathering system, which is excluded from adjusted results. Adjusted net income rose 10% to $663M.

YoY metrics (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026 vs Sep 30, 2025)

Why the changes over 5% happened: – Revenue (+10.3%): Service revenues rose $198M from new power generation, Momentum, new projects and storage. Product sales rose 20.5%. – Net income (+8.2%) and EPS (+5.7%): Higher service revenues plus the $83M Permian gain. These were partly offset by $63M of acquisition and JV costs and $29M of unfavorable unrealized derivative changes. Diluted shares rose to 1,239M from 1,225M, so EPS grew more slowly. – Adjusted EBITDA (+6.2%) and AFFO (+9.7%): The same service-revenue growth, plus higher distributions from equity-method investees. – Assets (+26.8%): Net PP&E rose to $52.5B from $40.4B. That reflects $5.7B of year-to-date capex and the $2.816B Momentum purchase. – Liabilities (+20.3%) and debt (+21.2%): $5.5B of new long-term debt was issued year to date to fund growth and Momentum. – Equity (+44.6%): Williams received $3.737B from selling a partial interest in a consolidated subsidiary, so noncontrolling interests rose to $5.76B from $2.34B. Common shares issued rose to 1,290M from 1,261M. – Cash: Financing proceeds came in ahead of spending.

IIPR released earnings today.  This company continues to be significantly undervalued vs any other REIT.  Now that medical cannabis has ben moved to Schedule III, results of those companies will significantly improve and we should see expansion of those market where medical has the only cannabis allowed.
The life sciences diversification should remove significant doubt about the company as that division ramps up (thru 2027).

The dividend remains solid and I’d expect the share price to start to see a more normal valuation as this year continues.

Summary: Revenue was flat at $64.9M (+0.4%). Net income to common was $28.7M ($0.99 EPS, +2.1%). Normalized FFO per share rose 12.5% to $1.80. AFFO per share rose 14.6% to $1.96. The FFO growth came from new life science income rather than rent. During the quarter IIP terminated 16 leases (1.2M sq ft) and signed 6 (604K sq ft). It committed a $245M mezzanine loan at Alewife Park (~15.8% yield) and funded $30M of IQHQ preferred equity. The dividend held at $1.90 per quarter. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA is 2.1x, and liquidity is $142.4M.

Opportunities

• Re-leasing troubled properties. Gold: “…are encouraged by the continued leasing momentum across our portfolio, reflecting our team’s ongoing efforts to re-lease properties.” From the release: 6 new leases (604K sq ft) were signed in the quarter. After quarter-end, IIP signed a lease for its 270K sq ft Saxton, PA property. Grown Rogue took the former PharmaCann New York property, and IIP has tentative new tenants lined up for all three 4Front assets.
• Higher-yield life science investments. Gold: “…our recently announced $245 million mezzanine loan commitment at Alewife Park further expands our presence in the life science sector.” From the release: the loan yields about 15.8%, with a 14.0% floor, and $111M was funded at closing. Total IQHQ investment is now $300M. Interest and other income rose 224% to $14.3M, including $10.4M from IQHQ.
• AFFO growth. Gold: “We are pleased to report strong earnings with our AFFO per share up 7% compared to the second quarter…” From the release: AFFO per share was $1.96 versus $1.71 a year ago. The $7.60 annualized dividend was maintained.
• Cash coming in. No management quote on this. From the release: the $49.0M Perth, NY seller-financing note was repaid in full in October, and after quarter-end IIP raised $54.2M from a 9.25% Series B preferred offering.

Risks (no management quotes in the release on these points)

• Tenant defaults and churn. From the release: 16 leases covering 1.2M sq ft were terminated. Parallel defaulted on two Florida leases in July. All PharmaCann leases have now been terminated. IIP took back 7 Cannabist properties. 4Front, which accounts for 7.1% of annualized rent, is in receivership, and that is expected to wrap up around year-end 2026 or early 2027.
• Revenue is propped up by one-time items. From the release: $3.8M of tenant security deposits were applied to revenue in the quarter, versus $0.8M a year ago. Payments from defaulted tenants plus applied deposits totaled $11.6M ($0.41 per share). Underlying rent didn’t grow.
• Higher financing costs. From the release: interest expense rose 161% to $11.8M. Preferred dividends were $3.2M versus $1.0M. The new preferred carries a 9.25% coupon. The $87.5M revolver was extended only 90 days, to Jan 21, 2027.
• Depends on license approvals and life science credit. From the release: the Saxton lease and the 4Front replacement leases depend on cannabis license transfer approvals. The rest of the Alewife commitment ($134M) is “subject to certain funding conditions” and will fund through Q4 2027, which concentrates exposure in IQHQ.

YoY metrics (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026 vs Sep 30, 2025, with the prior-year figures from the Q3 2025 10-Q)

Why the changes over 5% happened: – Normalized FFO (+12.5%) and AFFO (+14.6%) per share: Interest and dividend income from IQHQ and the Perth seller note, plus a lower share count. This was partly offset by higher interest expense. – Assets (+13.4%): Life science investments grew by about $312M, and cash rose. Net real estate fell to $1.98B from $2.13B because of terminations, sales and depreciation. – Liabilities (+72.8%) and debt (+104.6%): IIP issued exchangeable notes ($389.7M) and term loans ($118.7M), and the revolver rose to $187.5M. These replaced the 2026 notes and funded the life science investments. The release reports total debt principal of $711.6M. – Cash (+288%): Money left over from those financings. – Equity (−1.8%): Change is under 5%. Dividends exceeded earnings and common shares fell to 27.57M from 28.02M, partly offset by Series A preferred issuance (Series A preferred is $129.0M versus $42.7M).

What is occurring in the US is explosive growth that has shown up finally in these reports. This report is annualized and not the actual Real GDP that will not be reported for 2026 till Spring of 2027. However, it is the first to show this and provides a sense of the trend in place. This will continue for a few years and is very positive for investors, especially so in US industrials.

Q26 US Real GDP adjusted for imports is below:

In the Advance Estimate for 3Q 2026 U.S. Real GDP (which grew at a 3.4% annualized rate), correcting for imported machinery highlights a stark divergence between headline domestic production and underlying domestic demand. Because of how GDP accounting works, correcting for this distortion implies that underlying private domestic demand is significantly stronger than the headline figure suggests, driven heavily by an artificial intelligence capital expenditure boom. [1, 2]

The Mechanics of the Distortion

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is designed strictly to measure what is produced domestically. Under the expenditure method, when a company purchases a piece of machinery or tech hardware (such as an AI server or semiconductor), it is recorded as a positive entry under Gross Private Domestic Investment. However, if that hardware was manufactured overseas, the exact same dollar amount is immediately subtracted as an Import. [1, 2]

• Net-Zero Formula Effect: The positive investment entry and the negative import entry cancel each other out, leaving net GDP completely unchanged by the purchase. [1, 2]
• The 3Q 2026 Reality: In the third quarter of 2026, U.S. business spending on equipment surged by 20.9%, led by a massive 37.4% explosion in information processing equipment. At the exact same time, imports jumped by 19.7%, heavily driven by capital goods like foreign computers and tech components. [1, 2, 3]

What Is Implied When You Correct for It

When you look past the net trade deficit drag—where imports alone sliced a massive 2.64 to 3.3 percentage points off total growth—you unlock the true velocity of the private sector: [1, 2]

• Massive Underlying Demand Impulse: An economy capable of posting a strong 3.4% headline growth rate while absorbing such a colossal trade deficit implies an incredibly powerful underlying demand engine. [1]
• Overheating Final Sales: When stripping out trade and inventories to isolate what domestic buyers are actually consuming, Real Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers accelerated to a stratospheric 4.9% annualized rate. This indicates that the domestic build-out phase is operating at a near-overheating pace, masked only on paper by foreign supply chains filling the capital equipment gap. [1, 2, 3]