Vancouver Condo Info

The Housing Bottom is There

jesse — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 18:13:18 +0000

Bill McBride over at CalculatedRisk has a simultaneously chilling and uplifting post on the US housing market:

There have been some recent articles arguing the “housing bottom is nowhere in sight”. That isn’t my view.

First there are two bottoms for housing. The first is for new home sales, housing starts and residential investment. The second bottom is for prices. Sometimes these bottoms can happen years apart.

For the economy and jobs, the bottom for housing starts and new home sales is more important than the bottom for prices. However individual homeowners and potential home buyers are naturally more interested in prices. So when we discuss a “bottom” for housing, we need to be clear on what we mean.

For new home sales and housing starts, it appears the bottom is in, and I expect an increase in both starts and sales in 2012…

And it now appears we can look for the bottom in prices. My guess is that nominal house prices, using the national repeat sales indexes and not seasonally adjusted, will bottom in March 2012.

The problem with using the house price indexes to look for a bottom is that they are reported with a significant lag. As an example, the recently released Case-Shiller index was for November and the index is an average of September, October and November – so it is a report for several months ago. The CoreLogic index is a little more current – the recent release was for December, and CoreLogic uses a weighted average for prices (December weighted the most) – but that is still quite a lag.

Both of those indexes will bottom seasonally around March, and then start increasing again.

What planet is McBride on anyways? For many Vancouver is different because it is inconceivable that it’s the same. Inconceivable.

© jesse for Vancouver Condo Info, 2012. | Permalink | 31 comments | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: prices, US real estate, vancouver

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Friday Free-for-all!

The Pope — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 08:15:31 +0000

It’s Friday again and that means it’s time for our regular end of the week news roundup and open topic discussion thread! Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

-Property investor, definitely keep your day job
-Mortgage pullback hints of housing crisis
-Ottawa leans on banks to tighten lending
-Canadas housing market: look out below
-Flaherty ‘concerned’ over mortgage lending
-Canada Gov exposure to mortgage lending raising alarm
-Is this what Januarys housing report looks like?
-Underused labour and pending housing bubble a problem for Canada
-US 30 year locked in mortgages hit new record low
-China limits foreigners housing mortgages

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

On a side note we’re still beta testing VancouverPeak.com as a forum replacement. It will likely replace the old VCI forum soon, so you if you’re a forum user here you may want to take a look at how it works over there. That site is registration by invite only, but if you registered for an account here before the end of January you’re probably already registered there.

VancouverPeak.com has a lot of functionality that is lacking in the current forums including uploading of txt, xls and other file formats. In addition to the forums, you can create discussion groups and new forums there and edit documents in each group.. this is similar to a wiki functionality, but with a more user friendly editing interface.

Try it out, feedback is welcome.

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Piggington “capitulates”

patriotz — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 08:01:51 +0000

One of my long-time favourite bloggers, Professor Piggington of San Diego, has finally decided to buy:

After the recent leg down in interest rates, monthly payments are the lowest compared to incomes and rents than they’ve been in the history of the data, and are quite dramatically below their median historical levels:

But note another consideration, which applies only to the US where you can lock in rates for the life of the mortgage:

If this outlook is correct, as I believe it is, then today’s ultra-low rates make this an ideal time to take out a chunky 30-year fixed mortgage, and to sit back and let inflation hew away at the real value of the mortgage and the monthly payments over the years to come.

So even if the buy/rent ratio in Vancouver came down to what it is now in San Diego, buying would not be as favourable, because interest rates would certainly rise if we went into a period of long-term higher inflation.

Note that the graph above compares monthly payments against per capita income (not median household income). It would appear that it is now possible to buy a SFH in San Diego on a single median income.

But of course Vancouver can’t go the way of SD, it’s surrounded by ocean, mountains, and a border… um it has the nicest weather in the country and everyone wants to live here… um…

Well it’s just different here.

Piggington.com Jumps the Shark

This post was submitted by patriotz.

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CMHC takes responsibility for all mortgages?

Scott — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 16:43:25 +0000

Apparently it’s not just the typical less than 20% down mortgage that the CMHC insures. They’re currently almost at their government mandated limit of $600 billion in default insurance because banks are buying up insurance to cover even low ratio loans (ie greater than 20% equity). This removes all risk from the lender, so why wouldn’t they do it? I didn’t even know this was permitted.

Normally, every 3-5 years as the mortgage market grows, CMHC has asked for, and received, approval from parliament to raise this limit. It was last raised by $150 billion in 2008.

Now media frenzy has politicians scurrying to offload mortgage risk from the government back to the private sector. (The government guarantees CMHC’s liabilities, so public concern is certainly understandable.)

As a result, many question whether CMHC will get its $600 billion limit raised anytime soon.

Here’s some reaction on that:

TD Bank economist Sonya Gulati tells CBC that not increasing the limit “may serve to tighten the housing market.”
RBC economist Robert Hogue told Global News that increasing the limit “…would be, policywise, a very delicate balance to strike.”
The Post quoted an unnamed industry source as saying: “…What will the government do, not increase (CMHC’s) limit? This could kill the entire housing market.”

Read the full article here.

This post was submitted by Scott.

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A Brief History of the Housing Bubble

mojojojo — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 08:12:31 +0000

A really good overview and analysis of the U.S. Housing Bubble at OCHousingnews.com. The build-up, collapse, stimulus/supply mgmt. and current double dip all covered in detail.

^{http://ochousingnews.com/news/a-brief-history-of-the-housing-bubble}

From 2003 to 2006, American lenders and borrowers inflated a massive housing bubble. From 2007 to 2012, this bubble has been deflating, but the bottom is proving elusive. The housing market is closer to the bottom than to the top, and if a viable solution can be found to bring supply and demand into balance, the tremendous affordability from low prices and low interest rates will help a bottom form in the near term.

This post was submitted by mojojojo.

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Martin Armstrong lists Canada under “RE markets to avoid”

Mon, 30 Jan 2012 08:10:44 +0000

While some Canadian cities offer reasonable affordability compared to household incomes, Vancouver’s housing is, by any measure, highly overvalued and vulnerable to a sharp correction. Prices have risen 55% from their 2009 trough to a level 29% above their prior peak. The average home price reached nearly C$800,000 (according to CMHC).

Full article

This post was submitted by Mansur al-Hallaj.

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Friday Free-for-all!

The Pope — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 08:30:44 +0000

It’s that time of the week again! Lets do our regular friday news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend. Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

-Prediction: The Canadian Housing Market will Crash
-Household borrowing surge driven by most indebted
-Boomers ‘punch drunk’ on debt
-Canadian home prices fall for first time since fall, 2010
-Either Windsor or Edmonton has the most affordable market
-Canadas job market in bad shape
-Property taxes on the rise
-$100 hot dog, get it while it’s hot.
-US banks face margin pressure from fed rates
-US new home sales worst ever in fall 2011
-A real estate downturn down under?
-

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Low rates forever

The Pope — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 16:21:39 +0000

Looks like the US fed isn’t very optimistic about the recovery. They say Japan style interest rates until 2014. Will this help a US house price recovery, or will buyers wait if they know there’s no rush for bargain rates?

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Racist marketing and fact-free media

RTYT — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 08:34:17 +0000

Look at this garbage. It’s an article submitted by “The BC Real Estate Convention” and printed as if it’s actually news in the Vancouver Sun. First off, the writing is atrocious. Don’t they even have an editor read these advertorials before they’re printed? Second, there are lots of statements presented as fact that have absolutely nothing to back them up:

Experts claim that the Chinese Mainland buyers and investors will continue to seek for overseas investment opportunities, in Vancouver.

Which ‘experts’ are these? Oh never mind, we’ll just take your word for it then.

As it is more cost efficient to purchase a property rather than renting, and considering the long term returns of the investment, purchasing properties in Vancouver become high on demand.

Yeah, somebody is ‘high on demand’ if they really believe that current prices in Vancouver make buying ‘more cost efficient’ than renting. There are many many markets around the world where buying is ‘more cost efficient’ than renting, Vancouver ain’t one of them.

However, as much as Feng shui is a well respected practice by many Chinese immigrants and potential home buyers and investors, there are always those “intelligent” ones that seek to obtain the optimal economic value from their investment in Vancouver’s real estate.

Wow. I don’t even know how to respond to that.

If you go to the The BC Real Estate Convention web site you’ll see that this trade show is sponsored by The Vancouver Sun and Province.

Then there’s this piece over at 24 hours:

Metro Vancouver will receive an influx of businessmen from mainland Chinese this week, intent on spending their two-week Lunar New Year holiday with family, as well as scooping up significant amounts of real estate.

Julia Rowell, sales manager at downtown Vancouver’s Maddox development, said this phenomenon has been going on for over 25 years, but 2012 looks to be especially busy.

Yeah? I think TPFKAA says it best:

HAHAHAHAHA! That’s absolutely hilarious!!

So in 1987, (a full five years before Deng Xiaoping’s reforms that enabled creation of individual fortunes) HAM from mainland China was increasing sales just after CNY.

/facepalm.

The hype seems to be working on the listings side. This year started off with the second highest number of listings in the last ten years and has grown at a faster rate than any of those years, especially on the west side:

I’m sure those sellers are hoping this hype pays off, and maybe it will, but then again maybe our market isn’t driven solely by wealthy offshore buyers. Most local first time buyers aren’t in the market for multimillion dollar homes anyways, so how would this even affect them?

Blaming ‘Chinese buyers’ for out of control prices is simplistic and racist. This city is nearly half asian so of course ‘Chinese buyers’ have an impact, but what about easy credit, low rates, CMHC pumping and local speculators?

Just for comparison, the city of Monterey Park in California has the highest percentage population of Chinese Americans of any US municipality. Here’s what home values there look like over the last few years:

This post was submitted by RTYT.

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Carney cries wolf again.. will it come?

wreckonomics — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 08:45:44 +0000

Mark Carney is making new remarks about some Canadian real estate markets being “probably overvalued“.

It was the second time in recent days that Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney voiced concern about property prices, which surged after the financial crisis as borrowing costs tumbled.
“We see that in a number of real estate markets in Canada, valuations are at a minimum, firm; in others, they’re probably overvalued. So there are risks there. We’re watching it closely. We’re working with our partners, the federal government, the superintendent of financial institutions,” he said in an interview on “Question Period” on CTV.

“Measures have been taken. They’ve been effective. We’ll keep up that vigilance. If more needs to be done, I’m sure the appropriate authorities will take those measures.”
The federal government has tightened mortgage regulations several times in a bid to prevent a property bubble from forming. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on January 17 that the government is watching the housing market closely and is ready to intervene if needed, but is not about to do so now.

Yes, the federal government has tightened mortgage regulations “several times”.. Here’s a timeline of those changes courtesy of Burbs Boy:

Jan 2006 – Minority Conservative Government elected
Feb 2006 – 25 year increase to 30 year on test basis
Jul 2006 – 30 year test affirmed and also increased to 35 year
Jul 2007 – 35 year increase to 40 year
Oct 2008 – 40 year decrease to 35 year
Mar 2010 – 35 year decrease to current 30 year

This post was submitted by wreckonomics.

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Friday Free-for-all!

The Pope — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 08:40:29 +0000

It’s that time of the week again! Lets do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic economic discussion thread. Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

-No retirement savings? No problem!
-Big sale on Granville, hoping for wealthy Chinese buyers
-Tax assessments hit Vancouverites hard
-Carneys low rates yield more houses than machines
-REBGV inventory rocketing at start of the year
-West Van and Richmond have highest child poverty levels
-Questions and Answers
-One does not..

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Vancouver Bubble from the Californian Perspective

mojojojo — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 20:44:09 +0000

A very good analysis form a leading Bubble Blogger in SoCal. The good Doctor began blogging about the US bubble years before the collapse. He has an interesting analysis of Vancouver’s bubble here along with some good comments.

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/canada-housing-bubble-ripe-for-popping-vancouver-housing-bubble-2012-pop-real-estate-canada/

In the last few years I’ve noticed that many of the cable finance and housing shows highlight families in Canada. Shows that talk about debt or home buyers are usually focused on families in Canada which is rather odd given that we are here in Southern California. Yet the funny thing about these shows is that they rarely identify that they are in Canada although I recognize locations like Vancouver. If one simply tuned into the show it would appear that a bubble was still going on in the states. This is probably the point. After all, the cable shows focused on flipping houses or making quick bucks on real estate started going off the air yet another bubble was still going on up north. Obviously these shows had an audience otherwise they would not be on the air. Now the focus is on the Canadian bubble and American audiences can swim in the nostalgic dreams of the glory days of domestic housing. Yet the shows rarely mention their location as if English-speaking families and cookie-cutter condos and homes are so easily interchangeable that they will fool an audience. Yet one thing the shows fail to acknowledge is that the Canadian housing bubble is even more pronounced than that in the United States.

This post was submitted by mojojojo.

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Limits to foreign ownership

Spork — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 08:03:04 +0000

Someone over at the Vancouver Courier is of the opinion that foreign buyers have driven up the cost of real estate in Vancouver.

Of course, capitalism requires competition, and free market principles should drive our housing market. But we no longer control that market. And despite growing evidence of market dysfunction, Premier Christy Clark, who could stiffen provincial regulation, and Mayor Gregor Robertson, who could increase taxes on foreign property owners, cede our land to foreign buyers.

Not so in Australia.

In recent years, Australian cities have experienced Vancouver-style real estate booms, with housing prices soaring from Sydney to Melbourne. Like here, buyers from China help drive Australia’s speculative real estate market. Faced with mounting public pressure, in 2010 the Kevin Rudd government introduced strict regulation aimed at foreign ownership. Under the new rules, the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) screens foreigners (including temporary residents and students) to determine their land purchase eligibility. Foreigners can’t buy existing properties and must build on vacant land within two years of purchase or face government-ordered sale. Scofflaws face capital gains confiscation. Finally, before foreign homeowners leave Australia, they must sell. No more overseas landlords Down Under.

Full article here. Is it time for BC to start looking at regulating home ownership and foreign buying?

This post was submitted by Spork.

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428 new listings, 65 sold in one day

wreckonomics — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 08:01:19 +0000

According to Paulb Monday was our first day of over 400 new listings in 2012:

New Listings 428
Price Changes 64
Sold Listings 65

Know how many days in 2011 had more than 400 new listings? None.

And look what’s happening in Richmond courtesy of Inventory.

Richmond Jan 3-16
New Listings 534
Price Changes 77
Sold 86

Some interesting things happening in this market early on in the year. The worst january in the last 10 years was in 2009 which saw a 20% sales to list ratio (we usually see at least double that).

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Mortgage Changes? thin rumour gruel.

Scott — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 08:02:47 +0000

Hey look, it’s a mortgage broker referring to a huff-post article about TD bank comments on potential mortgage rule changes.

Alexander believes the most likely scenario would be the decreasing the maximum amortization period for a government-insured mortgage from 30 years to 25 years, the report said. Furthermore, Alexander said prospective homeowners who can’t afford a 25-year mortgage against a 30-year agreement probably aren’t in a financial position for home loans anyway.

Pretty thin rumor chain for more mortgage rule changes, but what do you think? Any chance we’ll return to the traditional 25 year amort for insured loans?

This post was submitted by Scott.

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Friday Free-for-all!

The Pope — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 08:10:47 +0000

It’s the end of another week and that means it’s time for our weekend news wrap up and open topic discussion thread! Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

-Condo markets in Toronto and Vancouver at risk
-Vancouver 2011 market update video
-What $1.8 million gets you in Arkansas and Vancouver
-Nine wonderful bubbles
-Condo risk bubbles up
-Royal LePage says banks are wrong, prices will not drop in 2012
-Bernanke saw ‘relatively soft landing’ in 2006
-

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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BC Assessments for 2012

jesse — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 17:23:53 +0000

BC Assessments are available for viewing for a limited time. These are based on sales at and around July 2011. A little bird told me a few people are getting some interesting increases in the mail. Given our collective nous, perhaps we can figure out which property types and neighbourhoods are going to see some marked increases in property tax outlays this year and give some guesses as to how much. Remember that the City of Vancouver uses 3 year averaging and that it’s the assessment value relative to all other properties, not the absolute value, that determines property tax outlay. As well there has been a shift in property taxes from businesses to households, something that is slated to end this year. One might think that a few households are going to be rather upset if redistribution were to continue.

I haven’t looked at the numbers yet but my guess is that detached houses, especially in west side neighbourhoods, are going to see the biggest tax rise this year, with condos seeing the least rise.

© jesse for Vancouver Condo Info, 2012. | Permalink | 54 comments | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: bc, prices, relative valuation, vancouver

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Big banks and the housing market alarm

Eddie — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 08:35:12 +0000

There are a few banks out there making noise about the Canadian housing market. Let’s see, what are their names again? Oh, here they are.. Some place called CIBC and Royal Bank and then one called Toronto Dominion. They seem particularly concerned about the market in Vancouver and Toronto.

CIBC chief executive officer Gerry McCaughey told analysts and investors in Toronto that the housing market is “leaning heavily into an area that might be peaking,” and instead will begin to soften.

His comments came as the heads of Royal Bank of Canada and Bank of Montreal also expressed concern over cooling housing prices, particularly in the condo markets in Toronto and Vancouver, where capacity is significantly overbuilt.

And from the second link:

British Columbia is forecast to have it worse, said senior economist Jacques Marcil, and will likely see “a signifcant correction” this year. Indeed, he said in a report today, the Vancouver market likely peaked last year.

The report, which examined the country’s provincial economies, projects home resales in British Columbia will sink 3.7 per cent this year, while prices decline 3.5 per cent.

This post was submitted by Eddie.

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Dramatic Numbers

Karl Marx Carney — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 05:39:16 +0000

Monday was a strange day for Real Estate in Vancouver. It’s normal this time of year for listing to outnumber buyers as people who haven’t managed to sell relist their property, but the ratios paulb just posted are mindboggling:

New Listings 376
Price Changes 56
Sold Listings 43

And as he also points out, the Westside is nuts:

New Listings 96
Price Changes 10
Sold Listings 5

Yes, that’s right. 96 new listings on the west side of Vancouver on one day and only 5 sales. Any idea whats going on here? Were there so many listings that all the sales didn’t get entered, or did we really just have crazy sales/ list ratio day?

And if your in the mood to contemplate dramatic numbers check these out, courtesy of McLovin:

Buddy got his assessment in Kelowna. He owns a 2 br condo with great view of the lake in the Skye building. Paid $660,000 presale in 2007 incl GST. Took possession in 2009.

2011 Assessment $631,000
2012 Assessment $541,000

Drop of 18% in 1 yr and over 20% from his presale purchase price in 2007.

Truthfully, if he had to sell the place he would be lucky to get $500,000. So he is down about 25% and there is no bottom in sight.

As Makaya points out:

to put things in perspective, assuming your buddy took possession exactly three years ago and sold it today for $500K, he has “lost” $4,444 on his house every month. I hope he’s making a good salary to compensate.

This post was submitted by Karl Marx Carney.

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Friday Free-for-all!

The Pope — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 08:39:13 +0000

It’s that time of the week again, lets do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend. Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

-11,000 units for sale on the fifth day of the year
-Is Toronto hotter than Vancouver?
-Fire Damage: When due diligence isn’t enough
-Residents gloomy about BC economy in 2012
-Assessments generate range of emotion
-Income gap widest in the west
-Homeowners willing to compromise a bit
-Vast majority of Canadians believe country is in a recession
-TD predicts trouble for BC real estate

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Feeling bearish on Canadian housing?

Karl Marx Carney — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 08:18:52 +0000

Over at the Financial Post there’s an editorial that’s pessimistic about the Canadian real estate market:

The arithmetic is simple, and some of the warning signals look uncomfortably like those of the days before the market implosion that brought the 1980s to a thumping, crashing close.

Start with resale home prices. A “matched sales” approach to measuring prices tracks, over time, multiple sales of the same properties — this reduces the likelihood of measurements getting skewed by cyclical or regional shifts in the price mixes of homes that happen to be selling. Over the past ten years, prices so measured, in Canada’s major markets, have doubled, increasing at more than 7% per year, at a time when consumer price inflation generally had been running at about 2%.

So why is that a problem? Because average wages have not been running much ahead of inflation, and that means that house prices have steadily been bubbling out of reach of workers’ abilities to afford them. The house price-to-income ratio last peaked and then plummeted from 1989 to 1991, and the ratio regained its prior peak in 2004-05. Since then? It has climbed steadily higher yet, the ratio now far outstripping anything seen in the past 20 years.

Eventually that makes housing affordability a problem, and quickly so when interest rates start to rise. Housing looks affordable now, given that mortgages remain on the market at rates near their all-time lows. However, carrying costs relative to income would rocket upward, were rates one or two percentage points higher. Such rate increases are not in the cards in Canada today — but they will arrive all the same, and sooner rather than later if inflation continues to test the upper bound of its target range, as it did through 2011.

Read the full article here.

This post was submitted by Karl Marx Carney.

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Historical Sell List Ratios

TDK1138 — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 08:40:01 +0000

VHB has a post over at Housing Analysis looking at the last few years of sell / list ratios in Vancouver. He’s got two charts there, one based on daily data in the VCI forum and one going further back to 2001 based on REBGV data. Interesting to see the difference in years like 06, 08 and 2011.

This post was submitted by TDK1138.

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2012: Another recession NOT coming.

Scott — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 08:03:41 +0000

Breath easy my friends, Vancouver Sun says no second recession in 2012:

The Conference Board of Canada, for instance, ruled out a double-dip recession for Canada, although it qualified the forecast, noting that it relies on the assumption that the European Union will successfully resolve its sovereign debt problems

BMO slightly more pessimistic, but still 60% no problem!

BMO puts the odds of the U.S. slipping into recession next year at roughly 40 per cent with depressed consumer confidence and ongoing foreclosures. A financial shock from Europe could tip the U.S. economy over the edge.

RBC thinks we should have kept the HST:

Royal Bank of Canada noted in its provincial outlook that the rejection of the harmonized sales tax in last summer’s referendum has added to the down-side risk in its forecast as the return to the provincial sales tax and the shift of the tax burden to business could slow the pace of business investment and job creation. RBC has lowered its growth estimate for 2012 to 2.3 per cent from an earlier forecast of three per cent.

But on a bright note we get those seaspan jobs!

Seaspan’s federal shipbuilding contract and the provincial government’s commitment to bring new mines into production should boost B.C. employment; how-ever, these will take time to materialize. Nevertheless, resource industries hold the most promise for robust growth for the rest of this decade with the greatest share of benefits skewed, for a change, to northern regions of the province.

Now which of these forecasters was most accurate going into 2008?

This post was submitted by Scott.

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End of the year Free-for-all!

The Pope — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 08:01:59 +0000

It’s not only that time of the week, it’s that time of the year. The end is upon us. Let’s bid a farewell to 2011 and say hello to 2012. This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic thread, hope you’ve all had a terrific year and have an even better New Year.

-We’ll add story links here later.

What are you seeing out there as the year draws to a close? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Forecasts for 2012 housing market.

Karl Marx Carney — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 08:12:17 +0000

A very sensible forecast from Tsur Sommerville:

“We start off by saying I have no idea,” Somerville told the Georgia Straight in a phone interview. For him, forecasting is a risky business because “you’re wrong more often, even if you’re intelligent”.

An economist who earned his PhD from Harvard University, Somerville said that he prefers to evaluate what others have projected for the new year.

“The general trend seems to be that it’s going to be a slower market than 2011, and I think the combination of lingering economic unease and uncertainty is consistent with that,” the UBC academic explained. “The other thing is 2011—if you take away Richmond, the West Side [of Vancouver], and West Vancouver—was not some amazing prices-going-through-the-ceiling kind of year. In general for most places, things are going to look like 2011. Maybe a little bit slower.”

Asked about the biggest risk to the market, Somerville responded: “The economy, the economy, and the economy.”

Full article in the Georgia Straight.

This post was submitted by Karl Marx Carney.

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