As always feedback is welcome.

This fixer-upper is conveniently located near the center of Vancouver BC host city of the 2010 Olympic and Paralympic games.  Just minutes from downtown, it can be yours for only $579,900.  You may be slightly put off by the pictures, but remember, many investors won’t be able to recognize a diamond in the rough, so you might not have to bid too much over asking price to put this baby in your portfolio of investment properties.

First time buyers, Investors, Builders. Corner lot with lane. Nice residential street. Close to everything. Central location. Handy man special. Needs TLC. Mainly Land Value. 21st Avenue and Prince Albert St. 10 mins to Downtown Vancover.

Thanks to crash and tincup for finding this gem!

Canadian Mortgage Trends is reporting that it will be the 5 year posted rate, which makes sense since the discounted rate is infinitely variable, whereas the posted rate is consistent across all lenders. The posted rate can be found on the Bank of Canada’s website. That rate is posted weekly on Mondays, and as of Sunday night it is 5.39%. The current rule, set to expire April 19th allows lenders to approve insured mortgages based on a discounted 3 year rate, which is currently 3.29%.

This means that as of April 19th, buyers who don’t have at least 20% down and require a CMHC insured mortgage will be approved based on a rate that is more than 2% higher than it currently is to ensure that they can weather rising interest rates.

Just to illustrate what that 2.1% represents in real money, I used the ING mortgage calculator and plugged in some round numbers:

Household income: $100,000
down payment $30,000
Monthly loan credit card payments: Zero
Term: 25 years Property taxes: $2000 Condo fees: Zero

3 year discount rate: 3.29% – you can borrow $491,551

5 year posted rate: 5.39% – you can borrow $397,349

As always, corrections to my math or reasoning is welcome in the comments section below!

-Lightly used waterfront condos: $1100 /sq foot
-Vancouver now almost as world-class as Toronto!
-Canadians spent at the winter games
-Canadians drank at the winter games
-Suprise drop in Canadian building permits
-Monster houses at risk in Vancouver earthquake
-Feds aim for $17.6 billion savings in five years
-Flahertys ‘tough budget’ may be a year away
-I’m sure glad the recession ended
-The big US ARM reset
-

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

What goes down in B.C. real estate must, apparently, come up. And quickly: by the end of 2009, the average home price in the province had risen to $463,000, back to where it was in 2007. Interest rates are, at least for now, at record lows, and increasing consumer confidence has spurred the market’s recovery beyond expectations. Barring the usual unforeseeable mayhem, things are looking good.

Just for fun, let’s see if we can predict which of those five markets will do best by January 2011.  Below are the BC markets they focus on, vote for the one you think will have the best percentage return by the end of 2010.  In the event of a housing market crash, best performance would be the market that lost the least amount of value.

Based on $58,000 median household income in Vancouver using ING’s “how much can I borrow?” for 35 years (yes, 35 years – it’s what all the cool kids are doing nowadays).  Also assuming no other debts (ha ha) and a conservative $250 a month for property taxes or condo fees or both.

Prior to April 19, qualifying at 1.95% variable rate:

YOU QUALIFY FOR A MORTGAGE OF $415,270 WITH 5% DOWN!

After April 19, now having to qualify at 3.89% fixed rate:

YOU QUALIFY FOR A MORTGAGE OF $313,880 WITH 5% DOWN!

Holy foreclosure, Batman! That’s a 25% haircut off current prices!

Now let’s fast forward to the end of 2010, 4 successive 1/2 point interest rate hikes and you now need to qualify at a rate of 5.89%.

YOU QUALIFY FOR A MORTGAGE OF $244,287 WITH 5% DOWN!

That’s 41% less than 10 months ago, and we’re just getting started.

See, I told you math was fun.

Now, who wants to go out and get into a bidding war?

UPDATE: It’s been pointed out that CMHC currently requires the 3 year rate to be used, so the difference is not as extreme as the above example. DoDo1975 clarifies with this math:

A quick calculation shows that a family with absolutely zero debt making $90k a year could borrow $533,721.32 over 35 years today. All else being equal, after April that number will be $456,311.49 or approximately 14.5% less. This 14.5% is constant across all income levels.

If interest rates on the 5 year prevailing rate also go up 1.5% in the future, this translates into a 28% decrease in the amount someone can borrow compared to today.

The C.D. Howe institute is recommending that they be raised sharply for every rate announcement for the year after their conditional July commitment.  This would mean the overnight rate would move from its current .25% to 2.0% at the end of 2011.

Despite a bad start to the games, we had some unseasonably beautiful weather and wrapped up with a nice amount of Gold for Canada. Overall a positive experience with an upbeat ending.

So now what? We’ll find out what bills are due soon, but what will be the long term economic result of hosting the games? Are there people out there that have just discovered Vancouver and now must move here and buy at any price?

A recent UBC study found that host cities see no measurable boom or bust in real estate values due to the Olympics, but maybe it’s different here.  Do you think the next few years will see an economic boom or bust in BC?

-NYT: a $1 billion olympic hangover?
-ReMAX: few listings mean tight spring market
-Google search for ‘housing bubble’ in Canada and US
-a cooler take on a hot housing market
-Canadian inflation rates 1915 – 2010
-Automatic tipping makes some visitors complain
-Reports show US recovery losing momentum

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

Are there any MPs out there that are actually looking at the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation and the role they play in pumping up housing markets?

If anyone feels like contacting their MP, here’s a contact list for Vancouver area Members of Parliament.

Once again, this Houdini recovery has involved a situation where mortgage rates have plunged and yet Treasury bond yields have been rising — 30-year fixed rate mortgages have fallen to 4.93% and are sitting are record-tight spreads over long Treasury bonds (see Chart 7). Historically, the average spread is 150bps and this differential is now 20bps. This is remarkable and our concern is that investors who may be exposed to mortgages are at serious risk because there is a considerable chance that these rates will be moving higher over the intermediate term — notwithstanding continued support from Uncle Sam’s pocketbook.

Investors must be reminded time and again that mortgages are callable, Treasuries are not; and we are now in a situation where net of fees, which average 70bps, anyone buying mortgage paper today is receiving a rate that is less than what the borrower is paying, How nutty is that?

He also comments specifically on the health of the Canadian housing economy:

All of a sudden, the Canadian economic data are coming a tad below expectations, including the 0.4% MoM advance in December retail sales, which just came up short from recouping the 0.5% decline the month before (revised from down 0.3%). Excluding autos, sales are running at a 2.1 % annual rate over the past three months, which can only be described as tepid in view of all the rampant monetary and fiscal stimulus percolating through the system.

Not only that, but the supply response in the Canadian housing market is beginning to, at the margin, alter the inventory balance. The number of new listings surged 4.0% in January and has risen sharply now in three of the past four months. After outpacing new listings over 90% of the time between January and October of 2009, sales has now lagged in each of the past two months and this has taken the sales-to-listing ratio down to 0.614x from 0.634x in December and the nearby October high of 0.683x (and now stands at its lowest level in eight months). Pricing is sure to follow suit. Better buying opportunities lie ahead for the fence-sitters, in our view.

David Rosenberg is the Chief Economist and Strategist at wealth management firm Gluskin Sheff.  Read the rest at Mish’s Global Economic Analysis.

The federal government said last week it will bring in new mortgage rules to cool the housing sector and prevent home buyers, tempted by record low interest rates, from overextending themselves.

At the same time, it said there was no housing bubble, a point echoed on Monday by Jenkins, who was speaking at a panel discussion at the Government of Canada and Financial Times Global Business Leaders Day in Vancouver, where the housing market is especially hot.

“At the moment, we are certainly seeing a certain amount of the recovery in the Canadian economy coming from the housing sector” he said.

“I would certainly not say we are looking at a housing bubble,” he added.

Article in the Vancouver Sun.

Although January construction numbers are up to 198,600 jobs, it is below the 202,100 jobs from a year ago, and a far cry from the 220,800 jobs during the boom.

The good news is that new construction is on the rise in the province, with the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts reaching 186,300 units in January, a 5.8-per-cent increase from December.

That’s much better than the 149,081 housing units to begin 2009, but the construction starts have progressed steadily until now, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. It’s even better than the figure that economists from financial institutions had been predicting.

The pessimistic CREA throws some cold water on this positive news by predicting that the HST and higher interest rates will push the real estate market down in 2011.

-New mortgage rules to create short term boom?
-Danielle Park on new mortgage rules (video)
-Record household debt not a crisis
-Your bubble is my debt burden
-Canada not immune to downward housing pressure
-Inflation rate jumps to 1.9% in January
-US Jobless claims unexpectedly jump
-Interest rates still headed higher
-

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have a golden weekend!

WHISTLER, British Columbia – At the height of its Olympic glory, Whistler — the ski resort hosting glamorous Alpine events at the Winter Games — may be headed for the auction block.

It’s owned by a New York hedge fund that is reportedly behind on a $524 million loan payment, the result of flagging resort business and plummeting property values.

Creditors want their money back, and they’re playing hardball — calling an auction to put Whistler and other property up for sale Friday, the same day Bode Miller is scheduled to compete for his second Olympic medal in the men’s super-G.

Full article at MSNBC.

One of the complaints is that the walls of the rooms are so thin that the athletes are struggling to fall asleep – not a good time to have snorers nearby…

Ski jumping trainer Werner Schuster compared the Olympic Village with a boy scout camp. The 41-year-old said: “The living standard is very poor. Five, six people have to share a bathroom and the walls are as thin as curtains.”

I wonder if the complaints regard temporary walls or actual walls between units?

The size the accommodation has also been criticised. A particularly sore point is that there isn’t enough space for athletes to dry their clothes.

Don’t they know this is Vancouver?  We pioneered the art of small living in North America.  They should just be glad we didn’t stick them six to a room in a 270 square foot micro condo in the Downtown eastside.

A German functionary said: “The Village is good for summer. But now in winter with this weather it’s a problem.

“The German team have especially bought heaters to dry their things which are always getting wet due to the relentless sleet.”

It’s all about location, location, location.  That’s why we located the Athletes village walking distance from Canadian Tire, where they can buy heaters to dry their clothes.

UPDATE: Nope. We didn’t locate it near a Canadian Tire. Many people pointed out that this is about the Whistler Olympic Village, NOT the Vancouver Olympic Village.

The key changes are:

- borrowers must qualify for the 5 year rate even if they opt for a shorter term.

- on refinancing, the maximum amount of equity withdrawal is reduced from 95% to 90%.

- non owner occupied residences bought for speculation now require a 20% down payment.

More info in this Reuters article. There’s still time to buy (or sell) under the old rules, but you better hurry!

“These prices look pretty high by any conventional measure,” he said in an interview, citing measures such as the ratio of house prices to incomes and rents to house prices. “So, the likelihood of house prices falling a bit over the next few years is probably somewhat greater than that they would rise over the next few years.”

“Whether there’s a bubble or not you can only see after the fact,” he added. But it wouldn’t take a bubble bursting to cause consumers pain. If your house price goes down 10 per cent and you’ve borrowed 95 per cent of its value, all of a sudden you’d be in hot water, Mr. Dodge noted.

His comments come as Ottawa weighs action to take a bit of steam out of the housing market. While the government does not believe there is a bubble, it has been evaluating tools it could use to help ensure that more consumers don’t take on mortgages they won’t be able to afford when interest rates rise or if house prices fall.

The worst scenario would be if both of those things occur at once. Consumers would find themselves with higher monthly mortgage payments and less valuable homes.

While it’s virtually assured that interest rates will rise at some point, Mr. Dodge is of the view that it’s also realistic to assume house prices will fall. He notes that mortgage rates are likely to rise, which will put a damper on the market. Secondly, “we’re probably into a fairly long period of relatively slow income growth,” he said, and that too will curtail some housing activity.

Read the rest of Dodges comment in the full article here.

The Big Six Canadian banks (in unison): We’re concerned easy-money tax payer insured mortgages are encouraging people to go into more debt than they can handle and they won’t be able to pay off their uninsured debt.

The Finance Minister: Right now, there is no compelling evidence of a housing bubble in Canada.

The Big Six Canadian Banks (in unison): We fear the wide ranging economic fallout of a US-style binge-and-collapse in housing.

The Finance Minister: There are certain tools available to the government if we choose to use some or all of them.

The Big Six Canadian Banks (in unison): Please sir, let go of that lever.

The Finance Minister: Yee-haw!

-There is no housing bubble
-Property tax deferral plan a debt time bomb?
-Scotia Capitol warns Ottawa on popping bubble
-Is Canada in a housing bubble?
-The cult of home ownership
-VREAA: Froogle Scott 4
-Five warning signs of a bubble
-First Canadian trade deficit in 34 years
-Games will give BC short term boost
-Mortgage insurance peace of mind – at a price
-The doomsday view of the mortgage market
-Ottawa weighs stricter mortgage rules

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

“Our immersion in the details of crises that have arisen over the past eight centuries and in data on them has led us to conclude that the most commonly repeated and most expensive investment advice ever given in the boom just before a financial crisis stems from the perception that ‘this time is different.’

“That advice, that the old rules of valuation no longer apply, is usually followed up with vigor. Financial professionals and, all too often, government leaders explain that we are doing things better than before, we are smarter, and we have learned from past mistakes. Each time, society convinces itself that the current boom, unlike the many booms that preceded catastrophic collapses in the past, is built on sound fundamentals, structural reforms, technological innovation, and good policy.”

- This Time is Different (Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff)

For more crisis fear read the whole article here.

“Our concern is that [CREA] are improperly and unlawfully leveraging [their control over MLS] in order to impose these restrictions and to deny competitive forces and to deny good old-fashioned market competition,” said Competition Commissioner Melanie Aitken. “This case is focused pure and simple: Let consumers have the choice, let agents have the opportunity to satisfy and serve those choices.”

The Globe and Mail had an online question an answer session with Dale Ripplinger of the CREA and the transcript of that chat is available here.

But some economists who are concerned point out that home prices are rising far faster than other measures of economic health. The 2009 price increase of more than 20% came as personal income in Canada fell nearly 1% and total employment was 1.4% lower than the year earlier. In a December report, the Bank of Canada warned that household debt—largely mortgages—was 1.42 times disposable income during the second quarter of 2009, a record high.

Another possible danger: Because Canadian banks typically reset adjustable-rate mortgages every few years, those who are buying now at low rates will likely see increases soon. Toronto-Dominion Bank forecasts suggest that the rate to which many Canadian mortgages are pegged, the prime rate, could nearly double by the end of 2011. The Bank of Canada warned in its December report that if interest rates increase as expected, by mid-2012 about 9% of Canadian households could have so much debt that they’d be “financially vulnerable.”

“This is exactly what happened in the U.S., when affordability had moved way out of whack with prices,” says David Rosenberg, an economist who witnessed America’s housing bubble at Merrill Lynch in New York, and now sees similar trends up north from his post at Toronto-based wealth-management firm Gluskin Sheff.

Reading the article it quickly becomes apparent that Canada = Toronto (with a dash of Red Deer).  So we finally get some mainstream media coverage and there isn’t a single mention of the Vancouver market in there.  What are we, chopped liver?

In what world do the banks have to tell the government to rein in lending and squeeze profits?

The article points out that the banks aren’t so much concerned about people defaulting on their mortgages (the government owns that risk), what they’re really concerned about is mass foreclosures affecting peoples ability to pay off their credit card bills and other loans, since THOSE debts are not government insured.

So these are the big banks, why don’t they just tighten up their own lending standards? Patriotz summed the issue up nicely:

The banks are essentially facing a prisoner’s dilemma problem. They know that if the bubble continues, and collapses, they all will be worse off. But there is no incentive for any individual bank to restrict lending, because its competitors would just take the business, and thus that bank would end taking the biggest hit.

Also an agreement among the banks to restrict lending, even if it could be arrived at, could be viewed legally as a conspiracy in restraint of trade.

So the banks must appeal to a higher level to restrict lending to all of them equally.

So will Flaherty listen to the banks and tighten up mortgage lending standards and if so, what form will that take?  One point to remember is that this issue is about a national housing bubble, and I don’t believe there’s another major market in Canada that is as detached from local incomes as Vancouver.

update: Patriotz points out that Flaherty has made his decision, and somewhat sensibly decided to stick with the ‘warn them mildly and let them dig their own grave’ approach.

“In terms of Canada, we’ve been watching and monitoring carefully and we continue to do that. There are certain tools available to the government if we choose to use some or all of them. As you know, we did so in 2008, and we’re continuing to watch. Right now, there is no compelling evidence of a housing bubble in Canada. There are some signals in the market that are concerning,”

Mark Carney of the Bank of Canada feels the same way:

The central bank has no immediate worry about a housing bubble. However, Mr. Carney reiterated that households should be cautious about taking on home loans at current rates, which will inevitably rise.

“We’ve alerted to this issue, the broader issue of household debt,” Mr. Carney said. “We want to ensure people manage their affairs recognizing that the current situation with interest rates is extraordinary and extraordinary won’t persist.”

Both Mr. Carney and Mr. Flaherty have been urging consumers to act cautiously when buying homes for several months now.