Vanisle Avalanche Bulletin

Monday 22 February 2016

2016-02-21T21:12:00-08:00

This Bulletin Valid Until: Wednesday 24 February, 2016 6pm.

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

Outlook	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
Alpine	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE
Treeline	MODERATE	MODERATE	MODERATE
Below Tree line	LOW	LOW	LOW

Confidence: Moderate: Forecast models in strong agreement, very little raw data from alpine zones.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Windslab- Strong SE-W winds have transported light-moderate amounts of new snow to lee and cross loaded features at treeline and very strong SE-W winds have transported larger amounts of snow in the alpine. These winds have created isolated stubborn wind slabs that could release up to size 1-1.5 at tree line and are a more widespread problem in the alpine which could release up to size 2. Small triggers may release touchy isolated pockets of wind slab up to size 1-1.5 on steep lee and cross loaded features that have little toe support, while it would take a large trigger to release bigger slides. Temps will remain cold in the alpine preserving these slabs throughout the forecast period.

Loose wet- Freezing levels will fluctuate significantly from night to day during the forecast period. Caution is advised as temps rise during the day ,especially on steep solar aspects, at treeline and below due to the possibility of loose wet sloughing. These sloughs could be up to size 1-1.5. Be extra careful of these pushy touchy flows when above terrain traps or cliffs.

Wetslabs- As temps rise during the high freezing level times, previous wind slab zones at tree line may see a release in the form of wet slab avalanches. These isolated slides are unlikely but could possibly produce avalanches from size 1-1.5 and would most likely be associated with cross loaded features affected by solar warming.

Travel/Terrain Advice: Hope you got it while it was good this weekend as we are heading into a forecast period dominated by high pressure and our next melt freeze cycle. Avoid loaded pockets of wind slab and very steep solar aspects (especially above terrain traps and cliffs) during times of day time warmth or all steeps if the possible small amounts or rain forecast fall.

Past Weather- 5-25 cm of new snow has fallen with the majority on Friday. Strong SE winds transported new snow in light to moderate amounts at tree line and larger amounts with very strong winds in the alpine. Winds also switched to W and resulted in some minor reverse loading near ridge tops.

Avalanche Summary: Some isolated small wind slab avalanches were produced by ski cutting at Mt Washington by avalanche crews during Fridays snow and wind event. Since Friday no new avalanche activity has been noted

Snowpack Description-

Surface/upper conditions- On solar aspects at tree line and below, small amounts of low density snow sit on a unsupportive thin crust formed during Saturdays clear spell. The thin crust caps Fridays significant snowfall that is bonding well to deeper old layers . Non solar and alpine zones did not form the thin crust. Wind slabs and wind pressed surface conditions are wide spread reducing penetration. .

Mid and lower-well settled.

Weather Forecast:

Monday - 0-3cm snow. winds SE-Var light to moderate. freezing level 500-1200m.

Tuesday- 0-1mm precip. winds SE moderate to strong. freezing level 200-2000m.

Wednesday- 0-3mm precip. winds SE moderate. freezing level 400-1800m.

Avalanche Forecaster- Bill Phipps

Friday 19 February 2016

2016-02-19T10:40:00-08:00

This Bulletin Valid Until: Sunday 21 February, 2016 6pm.

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

Outlook	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
Alpine	HIGH	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE
Treeline	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE
Below Tree line	MODERATE	MODERATE	MODERATE

Confidence: Moderate: Forecast models in strong agreement, lots of data from below treeline and treeline (Thanks Mount Washington Patrol), very little raw data from alpine zones.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Windslab- Strong SE-SW winds will transport moderate amounts of new snowfall on to lee and cross loaded features adding to previous wind slab development from mid week at treeline and above. These slabs will be touchy and are likely to be triggered by human activity and may possibly be triggered naturally from size 1-2 in many areas and up to size 2.5 in isolated areas with specific terrain characteristics.

Stormslab- A significant amount of new snow will fall at the beginning of the forecast period and light amounts at the end. These accumulations will create avalanche hazard from treeline and above on all aspects. Slabs will be sensitive to human triggers through out the forecast period and possibly trigger naturally at the beginning. These slabs could be up to size 1-2 in many areas and 2.5 in isolated spots.

Travel/Terrain Advice: This is sure to be the best weekend of turns we have had for a couple weeks, but remember to keep your stoke and excitement in check and balance with conditions. Travel is not advised in avalanche terrain when danger levels are high and be sure to use careful snow pack evaluation, cautious route finding and conservative decision making when hazard is considerable. Side note- more people are involved in avalanche incidents when the hazard is considerable. Don't let the current weather conditions (Saturday) eliminate the history of weather and snow pack stability in your decision making. Start out conservative and only move into more aggressive terrain with cautious and careful evaluation of local conditions.

Past Weather- 15-30 cm of new snow has fallen since Tuesday. A light amount of rain fallow the snowfall from treeline and below in certain areas of the island creating a moist upper snow pack. Winds were light to moderate from the SE on average with freezing levels from 430-2000 m.

Avalanche Summary: Numerous loose wet avalanches were reported both with ski cutting and triggering naturally as the mid week new snow went moist with light rain.

Snowpack Description-

Surface Conditions- Significant amounts of new snow will fall on moist storm snow from mid week at treeline and below and fall on even greater amounts of mid week snow in the alpine. Strong winds will transport new snow into lee and cross loaded features adding to already developed wind slabs.

Upper- New snow from mid week moist at treeline and very moist below treeline has been bonding well to older layers, however easy shears have been noted in tests within this mid week snow at or near the Feb 11 melt freeze crust. Triggered avalanches could step down deeper than the new snow fall of the forecast period.

Mid and lower-well settled.

Weather Forecast:

Friday - 10-30cm snow with higher amounts mid island. winds SE-SW moderate to strong. freezing level 700-1200m.

Saturday- 0-5cm snow. winds SE-SW light-moderate. freezing level 200-1000m.

Sunday- 10-15cm snow. winds SE-SW variable strong-light . Freezing level 500-1200m.

Avalanche Forecaster- Bill Phipps

Wednesday 17 February 2016

2016-02-17T10:54:00-08:00

This Bulletin Valid Until: Wednesday 17 February, 2016 6pm.

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

Outlook	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
Alpine	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE	HIGH
Treeline	CONSIDERABLE	MODERATE	CONSIDERABLE
Below Tree line	MODERATE	MODERATE	MODERATE

Confidence: Moderate: Forecast models in strong agreement, lots of data from below treeline and treeline (Thanks Mount Washington Patrol), very little raw data from alpine zones.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Windslab- Large amount of new snow will fall during this forecast period with strong winds from the south east Wednesday, easing Tuesday and very strong winds Friday at treeline and above. These winds will transport significant quantities of snow on to lee and cross loaded features creating touchy wind slabs from size 1 to size 2 in many areas and even size 2.5 in isolated/specific zones adding to the wind slabs that formed last Monday. There will be a very high likely-hood of triggering of these slabs by humans over the next days and natural triggering will be likely during times of and right after intense wind transport.

Stormslab- Moderate amounts of new snow will fall at the beginning of the forecast period and large amounts at the end. These accumulations will create avalanche hazard from treeline and above on all aspects. Slabs will be sensitive to human triggers and possibly trigger naturally at the beginning of the forecast period and will be even more sensitive and very likely to trigger by both human and natural activity from Friday forward. These slabs could be up to size 1-2 in many areas and 2.5 in isolated spots.

Loose Dry- Quantities of new snowfall will slide with human and natural activity during this forecast period. Accumulations with cool temperatures and low freezing levels especially at higher elevations will move on steeper slopes with human triggers and wind transport from size 1 up to size 1.5 in many areas.

Travel/Terrain Advice: Read up on danger ratings and note the difference in travel advice. Careful snow pack evaluation, cautious route finding and conservative decision making will be essential during the majority of this forecast period, with travel in avalanche terrain not recommended during the high hazard times around Friday. Be sure to keep a watchful eye on how much snow accumulates and how much/where that snow is being moved by the winds. It is understandable that the desire to rip it up in the new powder is strong, but pick your terrain carefully and keep exposure levels in check until things have had a chance to settle out.

Past Weather- 10-50mm of precipitation has fallen since Sunday with trace amounts of rain in some areas at lower elevations. Freezing levels have varied largely on the island from 200m-2000m so expect a wide variety of surface and upper snow pack conditions. Winds have been mainly moderate from the SE with strong SE winds effecting the snow pack Monday, causing intense snow transport and windslab development.

Avalanche Summary: Loose avalanches, dry at treeline and wet below treeline down about 10cm and up to size one reported by Mt Washington Avalanche Control teams Monday morning within the new snow accumulations triggered by ski cutting. Some natural pinwheeling activity in steeper terrain observed lower treeline and below treeline all aspects.

Snowpack Description-

Surface Conditions- moderate accumulation of new snow with wind slabs in lee bonding moderately to a crust below. Zones of exposed crust near ridge top at treeline and alpine.

Upper- near surface crust now with variable support to skis and foot penetration at treeline and below treeline as warm underlying snow pack weakens it.

Mid- Lowering temps and freezing levels tightening and limiting concerns of middle snow pack layers of interest.

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:

Wednesday - 10-30cm snow. Winds SE moderate to strong. Freezing level 1400-1800m.

Thursday- 5-15cm snow. Winds SE moderate with gusts to strong. Freezing level 1000-1200m.

Friday- 20-40cm snow. Winds SE strong then easing. Freezing level 800-1000m.

Avalanche Forecaster- Bill Phipps

Monday 15 February 2016

2016-02-14T21:39:00-08:00

This Bulletin Valid Until: Wednesday 17 February, 2016 6pm.

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

Outlook	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
Alpine	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE
Treeline	CONSIDERABLE	MODERATE	CONSIDERABLE
Below Tree line	MODERATE	MODERATE	MODERATE

Confidence: Moderate: Models in relative agreement, little live data from alpine

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Stormslab- Significant quantities of new snow will fall at the beginning and end of the forecast period with the majority of accumulation from treeline up to the alpine. These slabs maybe triggered naturally and are likely to be triggered by humans up to size 1.5-2

Windslab- Accumulations of new snow at the beginning and end of the forecast period at treeline and above will be transported into lee and cross loaded features via moderate-strong SW-SE winds. This will form wind slabs on aspects from NW-NE. These slabs could trigger naturally and are likely to be triggered by humans up to size 2-2.5

Travel/Terrain Advice: Read up on danger ratings and note the difference in travel advice. When moving from one elevation band to the next ratings and conditions can change quickly. Significant quantities of new snow are expected during this forecast period. Careful snow pack evaluations and cautious route finding are recommended with conservative decision making during CONSIDERABLE ratings. Be on the look out for wind transported snow accumulation zones and study the bond to old surfaces.

Past Weather- 10-30mm of precipitation since Friday. Freezing level variable from 500m-2000m. Approx 10cm of new snow above 1300m Saturday with strong-moderate SW-SE winds transporting moderate quantities of snow to lee and cross loaded features. This new snow went moist Sunday with warm temps and high freezing levels and was bonding moderately to the old crust surface below.

Avalanche Summary: widespread pin-wheels triggered naturally and by skis reported Sunday treeline and below all aspects, with a few small loose wet sluffs triggered by skis down 5cm in steep unsupported terrain on NE asp at treeline

Snowpack Description-

Surface Conditions- moderate accumulation of new snow with wind slabs in lee went moist Sunday bonding moderately to a crust below.

Upper- near surface crust supportive to skis and variably supportive to foot penetration at treeline and below treeline. Snow pack tests produced easy-moderate results below a second crust.

Mid- Mild temps have promoted rounding and settling of the mid snow pack, limiting concerns of persistent weak layers from earlier in the season.

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:

Monday - 10-20cm snow. Winds SW to 30-50kmph. Freezing level 900-2000m.

Tuesday- 0-5cm snow. Winds SW-SE to 10-20kmph . Freezing level 500-1000m.

Wednesday- 10-20cm snow. Winds SE to 20-40kmph. Freezing level 800-1700m.

Avalanche Forecaster- Bill Phipps

Friday 12 February 2016

2016-02-12T10:42:00-08:00

This Bulletin Valid Until: Sunday 14 February, 2016 6pm.

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

Outlook	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
Alpine	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE
Treeline	MODERATE	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE
Below Tree line	LOW	MODERATE	MODERATE

Confidence: Moderate: fluctuating freezing levels and precipitation types with limited info for Alpine.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Loose Wet- Rising freezing levels near the end of the forecast period and rain will effect new snow accumulations potentially producing touchy loose wet avalanches, sluffs and pin wheels on steeper terrain

Windslab- Accumulations of new snow mid forecast period at treeline and above will be transported into lee and cross loaded features via moderate-strong SW-SE winds. This could form stubborn windslabs on NW-NE aspects

Wet Slab - Forecast rain at all elevations near the end of the forecast period may fall on zones of windslab produced earlier. This additional weight and warmth may result in the release of wet slabs at treeline and above on previously loaded lee aspects and in cross loaded zones in the NW-NE.

Travel/Terrain Advice: Fluctuating freezing levels will effect the type of precip (rain vs snow) that will accumulate during this forecast period. Careful evaluation of local conditions (especially when moving into different elevation bands) will be essential. Dangerous avalanche conditions will exist that require attention and cautious route finding. Avoid lee and cross loaded features on NW-NE asp from treeline and above and avoid all avalanche terrain as rain saturates new snow accumulations.

Past Weather- Up to 14mm of precipitation since Wednesday. Freezing level variable from 500m-2000m. Approx 6cm of new snow above 1400m late Thursday.

Avalanche Summary: Minor pin-wheels reported but no new avalanche activity noted

Snowpack Description-

Surface Conditions- Some small accumulations of warm new snow bonding well to old crust layers.

Upper- Warm and moist upper and snow pack with mod-strong bonding and settling, below a near surface melt freeze crust (crust has variable support to skis and is breakable in some areas).

Mid- Mild temps have promoted rounding and settling of the mid snow pack, limiting concerns of persistent weak layers from earlier in the season.

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:

Friday - 5-20mm precipitation mostly rain, changing to small accumulations of snow. Winds SW to 38kmh. Freezing level 2000-1000m.

Saturday- 15-30cm snow and possible mixed precipitation at lower elevations. Winds SE to 75kmh . Freezing level 800-1800m.

Sunday- 20-40mm of mixed precipitation changing to rain. Winds SW to 10-40kmh. Freezing level 1000-2500m.

Avalanche Forecaster- Bill Phipps

Wednesday 10 February 2016

2016-02-10T13:56:00-08:00

This Bulletin Valid Until: Friday 12 February, 2016 6pm.

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

Outlook	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
Alpine	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE
Treeline	MODERATE	MODERATE	MODERATE
Below Tree line	MODERATE	MODERATE	MODERATE

Confidence: Poor, freezing levels fluctuating radically and a lack of Alpine observations.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Loose Wet- Warm temperatures and rain will trigger many small loose wet avalanches naturally. These could be large in gullies and areas that have long or multiple start zones or very large in the Alpine if they trigger deeper instabilities. Humans could likely trigger avalanches on steeper terrain during maximum warming and rain.

Cornices- Rain and warm temperatures will continue to make cornice release a hazard. Be wary of routes vulnerable to cornice release.

Wind/Wet Slab - The fluctuating freezing levels could bring a mix of rain and snow to the Alpine and could release wind slabs in lees to SE naturally or likely with human triggers. These could be large in wind loaded lees to SE winds or very large in isolated areas that may even have deeper instabilities from earlier events. Fridays freezing levels will bring more snow to the Alpine.

Travel/Terrain Advice: Warming, rain and new snow maybe Friday is creating Dangerous avalanche conditions that require careful snowpack evaluation and cautious route finding. Extra caution is required in the Alpine as deeper slabs may exist in the snowpack.

Past Weather- Up to 3mm rain as freezing levels climbed to over 3500m at times since Monday. Daytime warming and solar effect on Monday and Tuesday.

Avalanche Summary: Many small loose and pinwheeling observed.

Snowpack Description-

Surface Conditions- melt/rain saturation and crust.

Upper- sloppy wet at treeline but touchy layers may still exist in the alpine.

Mid- From January 27 rain crust down snow pack is rapidly settling removing persistent weak layer.

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:

Wednesday - 5-20mm precipitation rain or 20cm snow. Winds SE to 75kmh. Freezing level 1200-2000m.

Thursday- 14-35mm precipitation rain or 35cm snow. Winds SE to 75kmh . Freezing level 1000-2400m.

Friday- 7-30mm snow . Winds S to 60kmh. Freezing level 1200-1400m.

Avalanche Forecaster- Lyle Fast

Monday 8 February 2016

2016-02-08T11:52:00-08:00

This Bulletin Valid Until: Wednesday 10 February, 2016 6pm.

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

Outlook	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
Alpine	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE
Treeline	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE
Below Tree line	MODERATE	MODERATE	MODERATE

Confidence: Fair, lack of feedback on alpine conditions.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Loose Wet- Very warm mountain temperatures through the period along with solar effect will trigger many small loose wet avalanches naturally. These could be large in gullies and areas that have long or multiple start zones or very large in the Alpine if they trigger deeper instabilities. Humans could likely trigger avalanches on steeper terrain during maximum solar effect.

Storm/Wet Slab - Some areas of the Alpine did not reach temperatures above freezing before Monday and accumulated deep slabs from last weekends snowfall. These are now warming and could release naturally or likely with human triggers. These could be large in wind loaded lees to SE winds or very large in isolated areas that may even have deeper instabilities from earlier events. Wednesdays freezing levels could bring more snow to the Alpine.

Travel/Terrain Advice: Warming is creating Dangerous avalanche conditions that require careful snowpack evaluation and cautious route finding. Extra caution is required in the Alpine as deeper slabs may exist in the rapidly warming snowpack.

Past Weather- Up to 65mm precipitation has fallen since Friday with varying amounts as snow or rain depending on elevation and area. Strong to very strong SE winds accompanied the precipitation. Freezing levels varied from 300m to 2200m during the period.

Avalanche Summary: Two size 2 naturals were observed Friday at Mt Cain, west bowl ,Treeline ,West aspect.

Snowpack Description-

Surface Conditions- melt/rain saturation and crust.

Upper- sloppy wet at treeline but touchy layers may exist still in alpine.

Mid- From January 27 rain crust down snow pack is isothermic and rapidly settling removing persistent weak layer.

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:

Monday - Trace or no precipitation. Winds S to 25kmh. Freezing level 3600m.

Tuesday- Trace or no precipitation. Winds SE to 60kmh . Freezing level 2800-3200m.

Wednesday- 5-20mm snow or rain. Winds S to SE to 60kmh. Freezing level 1600-1900m.

Avalanche Forecaster- Lyle Fast

Friday 5 January 2016

2016-02-05T10:50:00-08:00

This Bulletin Valid Until: Sunday 7 February, 2016 6pm.

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

Outlook	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
Alpine	HIGH	HIGH	HIGH
Treeline	HIGH	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE
Below Tree line	CONSIDERABLE	MODERATE	MODERATE

Confidence: Fair, freezing levels vary radically over period.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wind Slab - Very heavy precipitation amounts Friday and very strong SE winds will build touchy to very touchy wind slabs in lees to SE winds. Rising freezing levels mid day Friday will build dense layers and worsening conditions. Natural avalanches will be likely Friday at treeline and above in the Alpine. Human triggered avalanches will be likely from Treeline and above on all three days. These will be small in many areas or large during High danger. They could be very large in open wind loaded slopes with large start zones.

Storm/Wet Slab - Very heavy precipitation amounts with rising freezing levels will build wet storm slabs at elevations above 1400m with rain to 2500m at times. These will be likely natural avalanches in many areas or large human triggered in specific areas of deep wet accumulations.

Travel/Terrain Advice: This period will require the highest level of snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding and conservative route finding. Avoid wind loaded slopes in lees to SE during this period. Be cautious of all rain soaked areas as heavy wet slabs may exist or surface wet at lower elevations. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended when danger is high.

Past Weather- Up to 50mm precipitation fell since Wednesday with freezing levels to 1500m at times. This resulted in up to 40cm new snow before Friday morning.

Avalanche Summary: Small size 1 wind slabs reported at treeline, skier triggered on Mt Brooks and Mt Washington.

Snowpack Description-

Surface Conditions- Wind affected new snow, melt/rain saturation.

Upper- Storm snow bonding variable , several touchy layers in storm snow.

Mid- From January 27 rain crust down snow pack is isothermic and rapidly settling likely removing persistent weak layer.

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:

Friday - 27-75mm precipitation. Winds SE to 90kmh. Freezing level 1400-2400m.

Saturday- 2-10cm snow. Winds to SW 40kmh . Freezing level 900m.

Sunday- 7-20mm snow or rain. Winds S to 40kmh. Freezing level 900-2700m.

Avalanche Forecaster- Lyle Fast

Wednesday 3 February 2016

2016-02-03T13:23:00-08:00

This Bulletin Valid Until: Friday 5 February, 2016 6pm.

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

Outlook	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
Alpine	HIGH	HIGH	HIGH
Treeline	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE
Below Tree line	MODERATE	MODERATE	MODERATE

Confidence: Fair, very little feedback on Alpine conditions and model freezing level forecasts vary.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wind Slab - High winds and heavy snowfall will build touchy to very touchy wind slabs in lees to SE and SW winds. Rising freezing levels Thursday and Friday will build dense layers on the lighter earlier snow creating "upside down" conditions. Natural avalanches will be likely Wednesday, Thursday and Friday in the Alpine. Human triggered avalanches will be likely from Treeline and above on all three days. These will be small in many areas or large during High danger. They could be very large in open wind loaded slopes with large start zones.

Travel/Terrain Advice: Avoid wind loaded slopes in lees to SE-SW during this period. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended when danger is high.

Past Weather- Freezing levels remained below 1000m since Sunday with between 2-6cm new snow in the region. Strong SE winds started late Tuesday.

Avalanche Summary: Numerous small loose dry sluffs on South aspects at Mt Cain west bowl. Also notable was a size 1.5 wind slab in a North facing chute at treeline, likely human triggered on weekend at Mt Cain West bowl.

Snowpack Description-

Surface Conditions- Wind affected new snow,

Upper- Storm snow bonding variable , several layers in storm snow.

Mid- From January 27 rain crust down snow pack is isothermic and rapidly settling likely removing persistent weak layer.

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:

Wednesday - 14-30cm snow. Winds SE to 70kmh. Freezing level 1000m.

Thursday- 4-15cm snow or rain . Winds to SE-SW 60kmh . Freezing level 1000-1500m.

Friday- 23-60cm snow or rain. Winds SE to 70kmh. Freezing level 1000-1600m.

Avalanche Forecaster- Lyle Fast

Monday 1 February 2016

2016-02-01T11:09:00-08:00

This Bulletin Valid Until: Wednesday 3 February, 2016 6pm.

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

Outlook	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
Alpine	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE	HIGH
Treeline	MODERATE	MODERATE	CONSIDERABLE
Below Tree line		LOW	MODERATE

Confidence: Fair, very little feedback on Alpine conditions.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wind Slab - From tree line and above touchy windslabs have developed in lees to SE winds, cross loaded areas and possible reverse loading in Alpine from NW winds. Some of these ran as naturals late last week into Saturday on steep unsupported terrain. These could possibly still be triggered by humans in specific wind loaded areas and could be large in the Alpine. Wednesdays new snow and strong winds will increase this danger.

Travel/Terrain Advice: Evaluate terrain carefully to avoid the weakest of the windslabs beginning at treeline openings.

Past Weather- Not all stations reporting. Since last Wednesday's rain crust new snow amounts vary widely in the region from 60cm in the North to 10cm on the Eastern central mountains.

Avalanche Summary: Some naturals observed in wind slabs on Mt Brooks.

Snowpack Description-

Surface Conditions- Wind affected new snow, exposed melt freeze crust some surface hoar development.

Upper- Storm snow bonding variable to widespread rain crust, several reactive layers in storm snow.

Mid- From January 27 rain crust down snow pack is isothermic and rapidly settling likely removing persistent weak layer.

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:

Monday - Trace of new snow. Winds SW to SE light. Freezing level 800m.

Tuesday- Trace to 7cm snow . Winds to SE 30kmh . Freezing level 800m.

Wednesday- 17-40cm snow. Winds SE to 70kmh. Freezing level 1000m.

Avalanche Forecaster- Lyle Fast

Friday 29 January 2016

2016-01-29T11:13:00-08:00

This Bulletin Valid Until: Sunday, 31 January, 2016 6pm.

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

Outlook	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
Alpine	HIGH	HIGH	HIGH
Treeline	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE
Below Tree line	MODERATE	MODERATE	MODERATE

Confidence: Fair, forecasted precipitation amounts vary widely.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wind Slab - High winds and snowfall will create touchy wind slabs in lees to SE winds Friday and SW winds Saturday at tree line and above. In the Alpine large natural avalanches are likely in wind loaded areas and human triggered very likely.

Storm Slab - Possible new snow of over 50cm Saturday on Northern Vancouver Island will create widespread areas of instability in storm snow. These avalanches could be likely triggered by humans and could be large in many areas tree line and above. This danger will decrease if local snowfall amounts are less than the forecast.

Persistant Slab- Now 120-150cm deep this layer from early January is still present in isolated locations at treeline but slowly settling. The increased loading from this periods snowfall and a large to very large trigger could produce large avalanches.

Travel/Terrain Advice: Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended when Danger is rated High. Local snowfall amounts exceeding 30cms will push Danger from considerable to High. Cautious route finding to avoid wind slabs and deep storm snow essential.

Past Weather- Up to 151mm precipitation since Wednesday mostly as rain. Freesing levels to 2200m in many locations during precipitation.

Avalanche Summary: Size 2 natural out of bounds at Mt Washington on a NW aspect , 1480m occurred Wednesday during rain event.

Snowpack Description-

Surface Conditions- Wind affected new snow.

Upper- Storm snow bonding variable to widespread rain crust over moist to wet layers.

Mid- Bonds in buried surface hoar layer now as deep as 120-150cm are moderate to hard. Now increased loading may cause failures.

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:

Friday - 17-33cm snow. Winds SE to 75kmh. Freezing level 1000m.

Saturday- 3-53cm snow larger amounts in North . Winds SW to 75kmh . Freezing level 900m.

Sunday- 4-30cm snow. Winds SW to 25kmh. Freezing level 900m.

Avalanche Forecaster- Lyle Fast

Wednesday 27 January 2016

2016-01-27T13:05:00-08:00

This Bulletin Valid Until: Friday, 29 January, 2016 6pm.

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

Outlook	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
Alpine	HIGH	HIGH	HIGH
Treeline	HIGH	HIGH	HIGH
Below Tree line	MODERATE	MODERATE	MODERATE

Confidence: Fair, forecasted precipitation amounts Thursday and Friday vary widely.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wet Loose- Heavy rain will saturate and release cornices and snow from rock faces,trees, gullies and wet surface layers continuing Wednesday and Thursday morning. This could result in small natural avalanches in many areas or large avalanches on North Faces below large cornices or gullies with multiple start zones. These heavy wet releases may step down to lower weak layers creating very large avalanches in the Alpine and treeline.

Wind Slab - High winds and heavy precipitation will form addition touchy slabs in lees to SE winds at elevations that receive snow and then possibly rain. These could be large or very large in the Alpine. This danger will increase in terrain that receives snow rather than rain.

Persistant Slab- This layer of buried surface hoar from early January is now as deep as 100cm in specific locations at treeline in shady locations. No reports of failure at this level but it is persisting and reacts moderately to tests. Large loads like snowmobiles, large groups, avalanches that step down or large cornice releases are some possible triggers that could release this deep weakness. This could result in very large avalanches in specific areas.

Travel/Terrain Advice: Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended when Danger is rated High. Watch freezing levels to determine elevations of rain. Consider consequences of small avalanches when terrain traps are present.

Past Weather- 50-80mm precipitation since Monday. Freesing levels to 2300m in many locations.

Avalanche Summary: No new reported.

Snowpack Description-

Surface Conditions- Rain saturated, rain crusts and wind scoured.

Upper- Several stiff to moderate density touchy wind layers and laminated rain crusts, on buried surface hoar that is rapidly settling,

Mid- Bonds in buried surface hoar layer now as deep as 100cm are moderate but persisting longer due to colder snow temperatures then normal for Vancouver Island. Now increased loading may cause failures. Current mild temperatures may create conditions to settle this layer.

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:

Wednesday - 50-104mm precipitation. Winds SE to 90kmh. Freezing level to 2300m.

Thursday- 0-50mm precipitation. Winds SW to 60kmh . Freezing level to 1500m.

Friday- 8-40mm precipitation. Winds SE to 60kmh. Freezing level 1000m.

Avalanche Forecaster- Lyle Fast

Monday 25 January 2016

2016-01-25T11:59:00-08:00

This Bulletin Valid Until: Wednesday, 27 January, 2016 6pm.

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

Outlook	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
Alpine	CONSIDERABLE	HIGH	HIGH
Treeline	MODERATE	CONSIDERABLE	HIGH
Below Tree line	MODERATE	MODERATE	MODERATE

Confidence: Fair, freezing level models vary widely.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wet Loose- Heavy rain will saturate and release cornices and snow from rock faces,trees, gullies and wet surface layers starting Tuesday and continuing Wednesday. This could result in small natural avalanches in many areas or large avalanches on North Faces below large cornices or gullies with multiple start zones. These heavy wet releases may step down to lower weak layers. This danger will increase if freezing levels rise Tuesday and Wednesday as forecasted.

Persistant Slab- This layer of buried surface hoar from early January is now as deep as 95cm in specific locations at treeline in shady locations. No reports of failure at this level but it is persisting and reacts moderately to tests. Large loads like snowmobiles, large groups, avalanches that step down or large cornice releases are some possible triggers that could release this deep weakness. This could result in very large avalanches in specific areas.

Past Weather- Very small amounts of precipitation since Monday and freezing levels returned to 600m at times with daytime warming and some solar affect at treeline and below Tuesday and less Wednesday.

Avalanche Summary: No new reported since Monday.

Snowpack Description-

Surface Conditions- Surface hoar again in many locations and elevations. Widespread supportive rain crust below 1400m.

Upper- Several stiff to moderate density touchy wind layers and laminated rain crusts, on buried surface hoar that is settling,

Mid- Bonds in buried surface hoar layer now as deep as 95cm are moderate but persisting longer due to colder snow temperatures then normal for Vancouver Island. Now increased loading may cause failures.

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:

Monday - 8-14mm precipitation. Winds SE to 60kmh. Freezing level 1000 to 1500m.

Tuesday- 16-38mm precipitation. Winds SE to 70kmh . Freezing level 1300 to 2600m.

Wednesday- 50 to over 80mm precipitation forecasted. Winds SE to 50kmh. Freezing level 1800-2400m.

Avalanche Forecaster- Lyle Fast

Friday 22 January 2016

2016-01-22T12:59:00-08:00

This Bulletin Valid Until: Sunday, 24 January, 2016 6pm.

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

Outlook	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
Alpine	HIGH	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE
Treeline	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE	MODERATE
Below Tree line	LOW	LOW	LOW

Confidence: Fair, lack of Alpine observations.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wet Slab - Rain to possibly 2000m has saturated and further loaded existing slabs in many locations by Friday. Large natural avalanches are likely in previously wind loaded terrain. Very large avalanches are possible if freezing levels reach forecasted 2000m in the Alpine or Alpine like tree line features. This danger will diminish over the weekend as freezing levels drop Saturday and Sunday.

Wind Slab - High winds and heavy precipitation will have formed addition touchy slabs in lees to SE winds at elevations that receive snow. These could be large or very large in the Alpine. This danger will decrease with settling in snowpack Saturday and Sunday

Wet Loose- Heavy rain saturated and released cornices and snow from rock faces,trees and gullies ending Friday. This could result in small avalanches in many areas or large avalanches on North Faces below large cornices or gullies with multiple start zones. These heavy wet releases may step down to lower weak layers. This danger will decrease as freezing levels drop Saturday and Sunday.

Travel/Terrain Advice: Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended when Danger is rated High. Watch freezing levels to determine elevations of rain. Many touchy slabs will remain as danger decreases over weekend.

Past Weather- Since Wednesday 40mm of precipitation with freezing levels to 1500m Thursday and Friday. Winds were up to very strong SE.

Avalanche Summary: No reported.

Snowpack Description-

Surface Conditions- Wind pressed new snow. Scoured to old melt freeze crusts in Alpine and rain crusts below.

Upper- Several stiff to moderate density touchy wind layers on buried surface hoar that has settled, rain saturated or released in many locations by Friday.

Mid- Bonds in buried surface hoar layers were strong but persisting longer due to colder snow temperatures then normal for Vancouver Island. Now increased loading may cause failures.

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:

Friday - 4-12cm snow. Winds SW to 30kmh. Freezing level 1500m.

Saturday- Trace of precipitation. Winds NW to 16kmh . Freezing level 1100m.

Sunday- 0-8cm snow. Winds SE to 50kmh. Freezing level 900m.

Avalanche Forecaster- Lyle Fast

The Party for the Bulletin is Tomorrow Night - Get your tickets before they're gone!

2016-01-22T11:04:00-08:00

The 8th Annual Party for the Bulletin is tomorrow night, Saturday 23 January. The silent auction is fat with great stuff including skis from K2 and Kindred, avalanche gear from Black Diamond and Pieps, outdoor clothing from Valhalla Pure Outfitters and Arcteryx and much, much more! The beer from Cumberland Brewing will quench your thirst as you dance to live tunes from She Could be Trouble. Tickets are not sold out yet but if this goes like every other year they will be soon. Grab yours now at Tarbell's Deli in Cumberland, Ski Tak Hut in Courtenay or on line here.

Wednesday 20 January 2016

2016-01-20T12:43:00-08:00

This Bulletin Valid Until: Friday, 22 January, 2016 6pm.

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

Outlook	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
Alpine	CONSIDERABLE	HIGH	HIGH
Treeline	MODERATE	HIGH	CONSIDERABLE
Below Tree line	LOW	CONSIDERABLE	MODERATE

Confidence: Fair, lacking some confidence in freezing level forecast.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wet Slab - Rain to possibly 2000m will saturate and further load existing slabs in many locations. Large natural avalanches are likely in previously wind loaded terrain. Very large avalanches are possible if freezing levels reach forecasted 2000m in the Alpine or Alpine like tree line features.

Wind Slab - High winds and heavy precipitation will form addition touchy slabs in lees to SE winds at elevations that receive snow. These could be large or very large in the Alpine.

Wet Loose- Heavy rain will saturate and release cornices and snow from rock faces,trees and gullies depending on freezing level. This could result in small avalanches in many areas or large avalanches on North Faces below large cornices or gullies with multiple start zones. These heavy wet releases may step down to lower weak layers.

Travel/Terrain Advice: Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended when Danger is rated High. Watch freezing levels Thursday to determine elevations of rain. Beware of terrain traps with many small avalanches below tree line.

Past Weather- Since Sunday 10-40mm of precipitation with freezing levels to 1500m Monday. Winds were up to very strong SE.

Avalanche Summary: Touchy conditions over weekend with several size 1 and size 2 reported but no new reported since Monday.

Snowpack Description-

Surface Conditions- Wind pressed new snow. Scoured to old melt freeze crusts.

Upper- Several stiff to moderate density touchy wind layers on buried surface hoar in many locations

Mid- Bonds in buried surface hoar layers were strong but persisting longer due to colder snow temperatures then normal for Vancouver Island. Now increased loading may cause failures.

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:

Wednesday - 10-24cm snow. Winds SE to 90kmh. Freezing level 1300m.

Thursday- 20-50mm precipitation. Winds SE to 55kmh . Freezing level 2000m.

Friday- 2-12cm snow. Winds SW to 30kmh. Freezing level 1500m.

Avalanche Forecaster- Lyle Fast

Sunday 17 January 2016

2016-01-17T17:44:00-08:00

This Bulletin Valid Until: Wednesday, 20 January, 2016 6pm.

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

Outlook	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
Alpine	HIGH	HIGH	CONSIDERABLE
Treeline	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE	MODERATE
Below Tree line	LOW	LOW	LOW

Confidence: Fair due to lack of field reports for alpine conditions.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wind Slab - Continued wind and more snow Monday. Very strong winds and heavy precipitation have created deep wind slabs in lees to SE winds. Combined with existing slabs from this week and weaknesses in the layering natural large avalanches are likely in the Alpine Monday in many locations and human triggered avalanches are very likely. These could be very large on large features with wind loaded snow.

Storm Slab - Storm snow amounts up to 80cm by Monday in some locations like central to west Strathcona Park and Alpine will created widespread storm slabs on the surface hoar from this week. Continued storm snow on Monday will increase the danger of large natural avalanches in the Alpine areas and human triggers will be very likely on steeper features at all elevations treeline and above.

Persistant Slab- Buried surface hoar layers from early January still persist in specific locations at treeline in sheltered locations open to the sky. This now deep layer could still react to this heavy loading event. This could result in very large avalanches.

Travel/Terrain Advice: Treat considerable rating as Dangerous avalanche conditions.Moderate still means heighten avalanche conditions. Avoid wind loaded larger features at tree line. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended when Danger is rated High.

Past Weather- Since Thursday 30-60 cm new snow has occurred across the region with freezing levels during storm rising at various times to 1500m. Surface hoar conditions existed at start of storm leading to very touchy wind and storm slabs.

Avalanche Summary: Saturday at Mt Cain skiers triggered a size 1 and a size 2 wind slab avalanches in the West bowl. One skier was injured and lost ski. 50 cm crown with wide propagation in Storm snow likely on buried surface hoar. Occurred on Daisys run.

Snowpack Description-

Surface Conditions- New snow wind affected in many areas.

Upper- 30-60 cm storm snow in multiple layers of varying densities and bonding reacting easily to tests and human triggers.

Mid- Bonds in buried surface hoar layers were strong but persisting longer due to colder snow temperatures then normal for Vancouver Island. Now increased loading may cause failures.

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:

Monday - 12-31cm snow. Winds SE to 85kmh. Freezing level 1200m.

Tuesday- Trace snow. Winds SE to 30kmh . Freezing level 1000m.

Wednesday- Trace snow. Winds SE to 80kmh. Freezing level 900m.

Avalanche Forecaster- Lyle Fast

Friday 15 January 2016

2016-01-14T22:01:00-08:00

This Bulletin Valid Until: Friday, 15 January, 2016 6pm.

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

Outlook	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
Alpine	CONSIDERABLE	HIGH	HIGH
Treeline	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE	HIGH
Below Tree line	LOW	MODERATE	CONSIDERABLE

Confidence: Good.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wind Slab - Wind and precipitation building Friday, Saturday and Peaking Sunday. Very strong winds and heavy precipitation will create deep wind slab in lees to SE winds. Combined with existing slabs from this week and weaknesses in the layering natural large avalanches are likely by Saturday in many locations and human triggered avalanches are very likely. These could be very large on large features with wind loaded snow.

Storm Slab - Storm snow amounts up to 100cm by Sunday in some locations like central to west Strathcona Park will created widespread storm slabs on the rain crusts, wind crusts and surface hoar from this week. Warming temperatures Saturday and Sunday will increase the danger of large natural avalanches in many areas and human triggers will be very likely on steeper features at all elevations.

Travel/Terrain Advice: This weekend we will have very dangerous avalanche conditions if forecast weather is accurate. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended when Danger is rated High.

Past Weather- 40mm precipitation or more which fell as 20-40cm of snow above 1200m in some locations starting early Tuesday morning. Temperatures warmed during day then decreased Tuesday night late. Strong to very strong SE-SW winds. Since Tuesday trace to 6cm snow has fallen and conditions for new surface hoar development occurred. Some mid day warming .

Avalanche Summary: Some surface wet activity observed at lower elevations and up to size 2 naturals on steep north west gullies during warming temperatures.

Snowpack Description-

Surface Conditions- New snow wind affected in many areas. Surface hoar developing again.

Upper- 40 cm or more poorly bonded new snow from recent events with complex layering from rain and varying freezing levels.

Mid- Bonds in buried surface hoar layers were strong but persisting longer due to colder snow temperatures then normal for Vancouver Island. Now increased loading may cause failures.

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:

Friday - 5-12cm snow. Winds SE to 60kmh. Freezing level 700m.

Saturday- 10-28cm snow. Winds SE to 75kmh . Freezing level 800-1400m.

Sunday- 16-60cm snow. Winds SE to 95kmh. Freezing level 1200-1500m.

Avalanche Forecaster- Lyle Fast

Tickets Going Quickly for the 8th Annual Party for the Bulletin!

2016-01-13T12:34:00-08:00

Don't miss the awesome 8th Annual Party for the Bulletin. Great swag in the silent auction, live music, pizza and beer are all features of this legendary event. Hedonistic madness all in benefit of your backcountry resource. Check out details here and get your tickets now. This event always sells out!

Wednesday 13 January 2016

2016-01-13T11:09:00-08:00

This Bulletin Valid Until: Friday, 15 January, 2016 6pm.

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

Outlook	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
Alpine	HIGH	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE
Treeline	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE	MODERATE
Below Tree line	LOW	LOW	LOW

Confidence: Good.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Storm Slab - Storm snow amounts over 40cm have created widespread storm slabs on the old sun crusts, wind crusts and surface hoar from the weekend and Monday. These could result in large natural avalanches in many areas above 1200m (freezing level during storm) or very likely human triggered large avalanches.

Wind Slab - Large amounts of new snow above 1200m and very strong SE-SW winds will have created very touchy wind slabs that may run as naturals and could very likely be triggered by humans. These will be large in many areas lee to SW-SE winds at ridges and cross loaded features or very large on big alpine features like wind loaded north faces. Thursdays new snow and wind will continue to contribute to this hazard.

Persistant Slab- The existing buried surface hoar layers will likely contribute to the overall reactivity of the snowpack over the next few days with increased loading by snow and rain and warming temperatures during Tuesdays storm. Expect large natural avalanches Wednesday and easily human triggered large avalanches and very large on large features at tree line.

Travel/Terrain Advice: Wednesdays conditions will remain challenging, widespread heavy snow, wind and rain events that occurred will make travel in Avalanche terrain not recommended. If you must travel stay on simple terrain out of all avalanche hazard. As snow settles be very cautious to observe conditions and make conservative decisions that avoid wind loaded features and large wind loaded areas of terrain.

Past Weather- 40mm precipitation or more which fell as 40cm or more of snow above 1200m in some locations starting early Tuesday morning. Temperatures warmed during day then decreased Tuesday night late. Strong to very strong SE-SW winds.

Avalanche Summary: No reported

Snowpack Description-

Surface Conditions- New snow wind affected in many areas

Upper- 40 cm or more poorly bonded new snow from recent events with complex layering from rain and varying freezing levels.

Mid- Bonds in buried surface hoar layers were strong but persisting longer due to colder snow temperatures then normal for Vancouver Island. Now increased loading may cause failures.

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:

Wednesday - No new snow. Winds SE to 30kmh. Freezing level 1000m.

Thursday- 4-12cm snow. Winds SE to 50kmh . Freezing level 1100m.

Friday- 2-15cm snow. Winds SE to 40kmh. Freezing level 900m.

Avalanche Forecaster- Lyle Fast