Vatican Smoke

Buckin Broncos

2010-10-15T17:12:00.000-04:00

Western Michigan Broncos trot into South Bend on Saturday for the first patsy game for the Irish this season - unless you count Purdue. As the Irish face their first non-BCS foe this year, many would expect a let down. Believe it or not, the Irish have underperformed against bad BCS conference teams, rather than non-BCS ones. And Brian Kelly, being a former non-BCS team coach seems to have a healthy appreciation of not giving these teams any hope of an upset. Brian Kelly spoke last week about how he understands how little a team like Western Michigan has to lose - and you can tell he knew this from his experiences at Grand Valley State and Central Michigan.

Not much analysis here. The Irish haven't had a game to really work on their offense against an inferior opponent - unlike any other team in the country. I expect the Irish to score 40 or maybe 50 points, and this be a 30pt blowout that we wouldn't see from past years Irish teams. Hope its fun to watch, but only for Irish fans:

IRISH 45 Western Michigan 17

Straight up 4-2, 2-2-2 ATS

'Stache Invasion

2010-10-08T12:52:00.000-04:00

Coming off a dominating victory against Boston College that the Irish had to have, Pitt awaits Notre Dame in South Bend on Saturday at 330pmET. The Irish should have some confidence after handily beating an opponent- albeit a team without a passing game that the Irish rightly were expected to drill.

The key question in my mind is - Can the Irish dominate a solid opponent in Notre Dame Stadium? Night games on the road seem to bring out the best in the Irish - maybe not always wins, but at least solid efforts and close losses. Notre Dame stadium is where the Irish have struggled against both superior and inferior opponents - never able to beat anyone handily. The missing ingredient seems to be emotion - which is easy to muster up when you are on the road and at night than it has been for the Irish at home. While certainly Notre Dame Stadium is a very tame environment to play in, its up to the coaches and players to find that emotion, that intensity from somewhere. Otherwise playing afternoon games in Notre Dame Stadium will continue to be a drag.

Pitt at home will be a great test for the Irish - who will have to play solid football to win this game. If the Irish play inconsistent or average football, they will lose another close one against a Pitt team that has some talent. But if the Irish can get fired up and amp up the level of intensity & emotion - like Brian Kelly was seen displaying on the sidelines during the Boston College game - Notre Dame should win this game by 10 points. Funny how Brian Kelly's most animated game all season was probably our best as a team. Expect a fired up coach that hopefully will be an example for the rest of the team come Saturday.

Pitt is a similar but better team than Boston College - with two proven running backs and some defensive talent all over. Pitt has trouble on both lines, as well as at QB. Expect the Irish to guard against the Pitt rushing attack, while playing soft coverage on their top WR Jonathan Baldwin. Whether Pitt can muster a passing attack will be the key to the game for both teams. If the Irish can keep Pitt under 20 points, the Irish should win; otherwise, all bets are off, and the game will likely go down to the wire.

I predict an average offensive day from the Irish - but a scoreboard that looks better because of some big defensive and special teams play. A comfortable win, but not terribly impressive given how poorly Pitt has played this season. Like my dress shirt size, I expect a score of . . .

IRISH 33 PITT 17

(straight up pick, 3-2 for the year, ATS 2-2-1)

Life or Death

2010-10-01T09:58:00.000-04:00

This week, safety Harrison Smith described the upcoming game this weekend against Boston College on Saturday night as "Life or Death". Much has been made, both positively and negatively, about this quote. Is this a new attitude, or is it just a platitude? After getting soundly beaten by Stanford last weekend, I hope its the former. All I will say about the Stanford game is that Stanford's physicality will help them go a long way - and that Notre Dame's lack of fire and ability to adjust to a drop 8 defense was upsetting. More on the drop 8 defense later.

Whether this game is life or death, the BC game is certainly the beginning of a winnable streak of games. At BC, then Pitt at home, followed by Western Michigan, Navy, and Tulsa. Would last year's Irish team win 4 or 5 of these games, despite better talent and speed than each of those 5? No. Will this year's team? The answer to that question, in my mind, will give Brian Kelly his first "grade" from Notre Dame fans.

One concerning trend out of the Stanford game was our reaction to Stanford's defensive adjustment to a drop 8 coverage. Stanford played a man to man cover 1 defense early, and Notre Dame marched right down the field. Stanford responded with a defense that they hadn't played in 2 years - a drop 8 zone coverage, where 3 defensive lineman rush, while all 8 other players spread out in a zone, facing the QB. The obvious strength of that defense is defending the long and intermediate passes with max coverage - while the weakness of the defense is against the run. Unfortunately, the Irish were unable to exploit this coverage - looking unprepared and lost offensively for much of the game. Until the Irish can move the ball on this type of defense, expect it more and more. Funny, its very similar to the cover 2 defense that Boston College employs and has employed for many years. Whether the Irish can adjust to this defense - as Brian Kelly has alluded to - will be a major quiz along the path towards Kelly's grade.

The saving grace in this game for the Irish is that Boston College is likely starting a true freshman QB in his first career start Saturday night. After 0 points last week, Boston College's offense is clearly stuck in neutral. When the immobile offense goes up against the charitable defense, who knows what will happen. The Irish have an opportunity to score 24 points and have that potentially be enough - which recently is a rare situation.
Amazingly, the Irish have played quite well on the road the past two seasons - losing but playing arguably better than at home. Given the Boston College offense's troubles, and the Irish hopefully desperate enough for a win, there is no reason the Irish shouldn't win this football game.

Look for Manti Te'o (21 tackles last week) - to have another MONSTER day for the second week in a row against the BC offense, likely with multiple sacks and at least one fumble caused. Expect ugly offense, with the Irish winning this game on defense and special teams - not needing much offense.

IRISH 24 BOSTON COLLEGE 10

(Straight up 2-2, ATS 1-2-1)

The Cardinal: A Vatican Subordinate

2010-09-24T10:05:00.000-04:00

Saturday the Irish play the team that I believe is the best team on their 12 game schedule - the Stanford Cardinal. The Cardinal is #18 in the country, and has killed mediocre competition in 3 games thus far. 35-0 against UCLA, 68-24 over Wake Forest, and a thumping of Sacramento State. At the helm of the Stanford Cardinal is the player Mel Kiper Jr ranks as the #2 ranked player for the NFL Draft (as a sophomore), quarterback Andrew Luck. Understandably the Irish are 6pt underdogs at home.

Is Stanford really that good? Their offensive balance is tremendous. They can run the ball with authority, with 242 yards a game on the ground and 233 yards a game passing (10 TDs / 0 INTs). But has Stanford played anyone? Nope. The 35-0 blanking of UCLA and 68-24 thumping of Wake Forest, while impressive, were not against teams in the top half of Div1-A. Notre Dame will be the best team Stanford has played thus far - which could be an advantage given that Notre Dame has played 3 teams likely better than any Stanford has played.

So if Stanford is really good but hasn't played anyone - will they dominate Notre Dame? On offense, I see no way the Irish hold the Cardinal to less than 30pts. Remember that last year, the Cardinal scored 55 against USC in a rout, and then 45 against the Irish for a come from behind 7pt victory. As great as Stanford is offensively - defensively they are nothing more than average. Wake Forest with a freshman QB scored 24 pts against the Cardinal, at Stanford. Last year, the Irish scored 38 against Stanford in a 38-45 loss - including 450 yards of total offense. I expect the Irish to put 30 up on the board as well, barring turnovers of course.

With the Irish and Stanford both scoring 30, what gives? This game is going to come down to the obvious old football cliches: turnovers and the running game. Creating turnovers will be a problem for the Irish if they cannot slow the Cardinal run game. Making the Cardinal pass a few more times, and have longer scoring drives will give the Irish a chance for a turnover or two. The Irish running game will be especially important if the game becomes a shootout yet remains close in the 2nd half - as the Irish run game might become the best defense for Stanford's offense. Brian Kelly does not care about time of possession, but I imagine he will see the benefit on running the ball in the 2nd half. Shorting the game a bit will only had pressure to some of Stanford's late game possessions.

Given the offensive performance of the Irish against the Cardinal last year, I expect the Irish offense to again leverage a talent advantage on offense over Stanford's defense. How the Cardinal responds to some points being on the board (hopefully early), and/or the game being close - that's what we don't know. As good as Stanford is, their coach is nothing short of a firecracker. Seeing him flustered probably will not make Stanford play any looser - likely the opposite. Getting an early lead and keeping the game close will be the best way for the Irish to win this game. Remember that the Irish haven't been beaten by more than a touchdown since November of 2008 against #5 ranked USC (16 games ago) - and last year, the Irish had a chance on the final possession to win each of their 6 losses. I expect a wild shootout, that turns into a real football game in the 4th quarter. Can the Irish make a few more plays? Look for a big 4th quarter stop by the Irish, and a missed field goal late to tie it by Stanford.

Vatican Smoke Prediction:

IRISH 38 STANFORD 35

(Season record straight up 2-1, ATS 0-2-1)

Faked Out

2010-09-21T13:15:00.000-04:00

Another game, another heartbreak. The Irish loss in overtime and in a new fashion to Michigan St on Saturday night, falling 34-31 on a 29 yard fake field goal touchdown in overtime. Even though the playclock read zero as the final play began, no penalty was called - which apparently is the correct call, according to the Big East. I could make endless jokes about the "lag" concept, but am going to leave the whole playclock issue alone. The Irish could have done just 1 thing to have avoided that situation - scored a TD in overtime, defended the fake field goal, or won the game in regulation, so the playclock passing doesn't really bother me. As always, there were mixed emotions following this one.

Many are probably thinking that Brian Kelly hasn't cured the epidemic of losing that has settled in over the Irish football program. If we stopped Michigan on their final drive, and/or if Michigan St had attempted the field goal and missed - would he have cured things then? Just as with nearly all struggles we meet as fans or in life - we must look to the big picture for reassurance. Its been shown repeatedly throughout college football history, that to change a culture of a program - to truly remove the old while laying a completely new and improved foundation - takes a few years. And rarely are there shortcuts. Lou Holtz, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Pete Carroll - all very successful college coaches - all had their fewest wins in year 1 at each stop. Does losing in year 1 mean that Brian Kelly will join them in success? Absolutely not. It means we need to look beyond winning or losing, to determine if Brian Kelly really is getting this program back on track. In retrospect, the initial successes experienced by Willingham and Weis crippled their ability - and the ability of fans - to see the long term changes needed in the program. Whether BK is 3-0 or 0-3, keeping the big picture of changing this program for the long term needs to be the goal.

The Irish offense is getting better each week - led by our quarterback of the next 3 years, Dayne Crist. The passing game received a much needed boost with slot receiver Theo Riddick (soph) grabbing 10 passes for 120 yards and a TD. The Irish rarely ran the ball - but had a good bit of success when they did. We see the Irish are going to score near 30pts against most opponents - so long as Dayne Crist is under center. Of course, there are two major knocks I have on the offense. First, the turnovers. The Irish should have scored 21 pts in the first half, turning the ball over twice inside the Michigan St 30. Michael Floyd needs to go see a psychiatrist, because he clearly needs to get his act together mentally. A 6 ft 3 220 pound NFL caliber WR cannot be fumbling every game in the red zone. No excuses. The second major knock is the final offensive play of overtime. The Irish were 3rd and 4, and got a 3yard pass play to Kyle Rudolph - with Michael Floyd wide open 6 yards down the field. Get a first down there and score, then the fake field goal never happens.

The negatives are obvious - we dont have enough playmakers on defense. The rushing defense was fantastic on 80% of the plays, but a few big plays killed the Irish on the ground, yet again. The only good news on defense is that we have a few guys who are making plays, getting better each week. MLB Manti Te'o is living up to his 5 star rating - instinctively breaking up plays more and more often. Its just a matter of time before he pops someone for a big fumble, or picks off a pass himself. CB Gary Gray also is making plays against the pass and in the open field - easily our surest tackler so far this season. Unfortunately, teams are going to pass away from him more and more, with the Irish weakness elsewhere in the secondary.

This week, the Irish are playing what I think is the best team on their schedule this season - the Stanford Cardinal. The Irish are going to have to score a lot on offense, and hope for some big plays or some breaks on defense. Charlie Weis had no problem scoring or keeping any game close; but the lack of defensive adjustments or improvement prevented the Irish from winning. Whether the Irish coaches can patch together a defense thru scheming, adjustments, or just motivation, will determine whether the Irish can beat Stanford, Pitt, BC, and USC. I am hopeful to see a great defensive gameplan this weekend against Andrew Luck and the Cardinal. Preview later this week.

Michigan St Preview

2010-09-18T18:39:00.000-04:00

A late game preview from the Vatican for tonights game pitting the Irish against the Spartans up in East Lansing (many of you might get this via email on Sunday, but note that it was submitted at 640pm ET). Here's to my prediction not being accurate.

This series has been crazy, with 8 of the last 12 being decided by 7 points or less. I do not expect this game to be a blowout either way - perhaps another classic in the series. The Spartans have experience at all offensive positions, and a fantastic run game - while the Irish have plenty of offense themselves. On defense, the Spartans have some vulnerability to the pass, but overall have an edge on the Irish defense. Combine that with a rowdy night crowd up in East Lansing, and you have a Spartans team poised to beat up on the Irish on national television.

The last 3 night games in East Lansing have all ended the same way - with an Irish victory. When faced with very difficult circumstances the past few years, the Irish have responded - certainly making most every game close, but not being able to convert the majority of these games into victories. I expect the Irish to make this game close, and whether or not the Irish can get a stop or score late in the game will be the difference or lack of difference in the game. Irish fans long for the day when the Irish close in the 4th quarter - making that big stop or getting that big score that finishes off the opposition.

I am not sure tonight is that night. While I think the game will be close, and I would not be surprised by a sound Irish victory, I think Michigan St's experience will be the difference tonight. Lets hope Im wrong:

Michigan St 31 Notre Dame 27

(record 1-1 straight up, 0-1-1 ATS)

Moving Forward

2010-09-15T12:25:00.000-04:00

Another tough loss for the Irish against the Wolverines this past weekend, 28-24. Too many tough losses in the past few years unfortunately make this loss blend in with many others. I do think the loss was different, and there are some positives to take away from the game. Whether the Irish can right the ship in the next 4 critical games - night game at Michigan St, vs Stanford, at Boston College, and vs Pitt - all losable - will determine whether these positive signs were in fact reality.

Dayne Crist provides us with a few positives and one major negative. The bad news was that Dayne did not play on 8 of ND 's 15 possessions, as he had "blurred vision and swelling of the face". I want to say he needs to be tougher than that, but no one knows the details of his injury. One major piece of good news was that the Irish were 1 stop, 1 play, or 1 coaching decision away from having a great shot at winning the game - despite only having Crist for 7/15 drives. The Irish only scored with Dayne in the game, as he directed the Irish to scores on 4 of his 7 drives. Certainly with Crist in the game a few more drives, the Irish likely beat Michigan - especially considering 14 of Michigan's points came after turnovers by ND's backup QBs. Dayne's play was not perfect by any stretch, but the Irish look to have an eventual 5 star caliber QB on their hands the next 3 seasons.

Another very refreshing aspect of the game was the 2nd half adjustments and overall defensive play. The Irish did not make the key stop in the 4th quarter that they needed - a common trend with prior years unfortunately. But in limiting the Wolverines to only 7 2nd half points (the final touchdown), the Irish defense gave the offense a chance to take the lead and win the game. One major adjustment I saw while at the game was on the defensive line - as the Irish shifted all 3-4 down lineman towards the strong side of the field just before the snap. The shift gave the offensive line for Michigan some trouble, and it particularly helped the additional blitzing Bob Diaco brought in the 2nd half. Even though Michigan missed a few field goals, the Irish stopped the Wolverines on some big 3rd downs in the 2nd half.

Besides the inability to stop the Wolverines at the end of the game, some of the execution and coaching concerned me a bit. Brian Kelly revealed this week that the defensive backs were lined up to the outside, not the inside as called, on the key 3rd down conversion by Michigan in the 4th. In addition, BK mentioned a few other coverages that were perfectly called but just not executed on that final drive. Maybe the defense was tired, but executing a good play call with the game on the line needs to be an area where we dont make mistakes. The coaching decision I had issue with was not kicking the field goal before halftime, with the Irish on the Wolverine 3 yard line with 3 seconds left. Brian Kelly said he "never considered the field goal" - largely due to his not knowing whether Crist could return to the game. I said it before the play and after, that was a huge mistake - mostly for the fact that Nate Montana, the Irish 3rd string QB, had been erratic at best thus far. Reward your team and take the 3 points there. Those 3 points could have given the Irish a 37 yarder at the end of the game to WIN - had the game proceeded the same way. Brian Kelly has been a head coach for 19 years, so I trust his decisions and realize he makes them with more information and experience than I will ever have. This is just my view from the back row of the stadium.

A good comeback spoiled is all too common - but I think there are some good things brewing. Weis rarely corrected issues that surfaced, or made adjustments during the game or season. The next 4 games will provide us a glimpse as to whether Brian Kelly can reverse this trend.

Bend, not Break

2010-09-10T09:49:00.000-04:00

For some time, its been said that Notre Dame's defense was a bend but not break unit. I think that term applies to every bad defense - but should it? Last two year's have seen Notre Dame defenses ranked in the bottom third of division 1-A - which to me, is a broken, bent over defense. While the personnel on defense has dictated a possible bend not break strategy as a solution, Jon Tenuta (ex Irish DC) did not take that approach with his planning - preferring aggression and blitzing on all downs. The past two years felt like Jon Tenuta was trying to beat someone up with a pillow - swinging hard and often, but forgetting that he didn't have the tools to execute.

After one game, and through the many preseason and midweek interviews of Defensive Coordinator Bob Diaco, the Irish truly appear to be a defense looking to mitigate its weaknesses, and reacting to the offense - rather than ignoring them and trying to dictate to the difficult to stop spread offenses in college football. Against Purdue, the Irish avoided giving up the big play or giving up much against the run - essentially shifting their weakness towards the short pass.

How will the Irish adapt their defensive approach to the Wolverines on Saturday at 330pm ET? I expect a similar approach - preventing the deep pass or long run, while giving up short passes - which in Michigan's case, are often short QB runs. Look for Michigan to get their yards and their points, but for the Irish defensive approach in the red zone to be the difference in the game. Giving Denard Robinson a huge spread out zone inside the red zone - forcing him to make a difficult pass, while also watching his every move - should give the Irish a good chance for an interception or holding Michigan to a few field goals.

On offense, I don't see how Michigan can cover ND's WRs. They couldn't last year, having one of the worst pass defenses the Irish faced all season (Navy was light years better against the pass). This year, Michigan has only 2 scholarship CBs. The question is not if Irish WRs will be open, but whether we can protect Crist and whether he'll hit them. I think a very good, not great day from Crist, combined with another balanced, workman like day from the running game, will give the Irish all the points they need.

With the weather potentially wet - look for the passing games to become easier, while the running games become more difficult. Advantage Irish. Its also nice to know that the Irish special teams are likely going to be prepared and able to execute - whereas the 2009 team gave up critical field position and a TD return to Michigan. The underdog performs well in this series, so nothing should be taken for granted; but on paper and based on what we know about Brian Kelly and his staff, I see a great opportunity for the Irish.

Prediction:

IRISH 31 MICHIGAN 20

(For the season, 1-0 in predictions straight up, 0-0-1 against the spread)

Purdue Pregame

2010-09-08T10:19:00.000-04:00

Great video footage of UND.com that goes into the Irish lockeroom before the game to watch Brian Kelly's pregame speech, as well as Coach Kelly's first tap on the "Play Like a Champion" sign. Worth the 5 minutes.

Substance, not Style

2010-09-08T10:17:00.001-04:00

The Irish beat the Purdue Boilermakers 23-12 on Saturday to start the Brian Kelly era off 1-0. The offense was balanced (160 yards rushing, 200 passing), and the defense only allowed 10 points to the Purdue offense. For once, the Irish won the special teams battle - returning 2 kickoffs for 50 yards, and 1 punt for 38 yards. Overall the performance was solid in all three phases - but spectacular in none. In fact, the spectacular was that the Irish was not the schizophrenic team we saw under Charlie Weis. Kelly's team closed the game out in the 4th quarter - when previous Irish teams may have lost it. Where style points were lacking, substance prevailed.

The all around solid play is a reflection of coaching more than anything else. Coaches must have the football knowledge to deploy, but they also must have intimate knowledge of both their own troops and the opposition. Weis and Kelly both know football - but it feels as though Kelly is better able to manage his teams weaknesses, as opposed to the Weis approach of that more ingenuity cures all ills. The Irish defense struggled with big plays and stopping the run last year. Kelly knows this, but also knows you cannot stop everything an offense throws at you without giving up something. The Irish defense focused on the run, while employing a cushioned zone with safeties deep much of the game - preventing many of the big plays and consistent running for Purdue. Purdue took the short passes - with Marve completing 31 of 42 pass attempts, but for only 220 yards. Make them complete 10 short passes instead of 1 or 2 - in the hopes that you can get pressure on a play here or there and stop the drive. The long 3rd quarter drive by Purdue that eventually ended in an interception after 15 plays was a perfect example of a defensive gameplan working.

Substance - not style - is what we saw from the Irish. Michigan - this week's opponent if you need reminding - looked spectacular in their besting of UConn this past weekend 30-10. Style yes - but substance? That remains to be seen. Even Michigan fans know that running their QB 29 times is not likely to end well over the course of a Big 10 season. While Denard Robinson passed amazingly well also (19 for 22), no other Michigan RB got more than 3.5yards a carry. Meanwhile, UConn was gaining 5 yards per carry yet fumbling inside the 10 and being unable to convert or defend 3rd downs. Giving up critical 3rd and 15s on broken running plays to Robinson revealed an unprepared UConn defense. Expect Brian Kelly to focus heavily on containing Denard Robinson - and not being stupid enough to think we can stop him. Giving up short precision throws while keeping him in front of our linebackers as much as possible, is likely the approach the Irish use. Expect some long Michigan drives that eventually stall in the red zone - where the Irish have less field to cover and Robinson has to be more accurate with his passes. How Notre Dame on offense converts in the red zone will be the key to what I expect to be a close game. More to come in the game preview later this week.

Purdue Game Preview

2010-09-02T23:08:00.000-04:00

The Brian Kelly era begins Saturday at 330pm ET on NBC against the Boilermakers of Purdue. Typically a new coach is always given some time to get his system in order before the expectations rise; however, many Irish fans see a manageable schedule and a fairly talented roster at BK's disposal, changing things a bit for a hyped up fan base.

No matter which way you slice it, Notre Dame is a more talented team than Pittsburgh. Just ask Scouts, Inc. & ESPN, here. The Irish have the "edge" in 7 of 9 possible categories, and is favored by 11 points. While certainly this game is clearly winnable for Notre Dame, Purdue is still a Big 10 program that was within a field goal and a minute of beating Oregon last year - and actually beat Ohio State by 12. Brian Kelly should win his opener, but he better hope the troops are ready.

The history of this matchup points towards the Irish. The team favored has won by more than 13 points in 6 of the last 7 years - with last years last minute TD by the Irish being the exception. Purdue traditionally has done very poorly in Notre Dame Stadium - winning just twice since 1974. Purdue also has to deal with a new QB making his first road start, as well coach Danny Hope visiting Notre Dame Stadium for the first time.

For Purdue to win . . . turnovers & Marve. Marve will have to play up to his recruiting billing, making plays with his feet and getting the ball to Purdue's strong WR corp. The Boilers will have to win the turnover battle to have a chance in this game - with Marve leading the way.

For Notre Dame to win . . . contain Marve and run the ball. With Purdue losing its top back from last year, as well as its #2 in an offseason injury, the running game likely will not be overpowering. A weakness last year for the Irish was defending the running QB - so lets hope the Irish have fixed the issue with a running QB. Making Marve sit in the pocket and pass should give the Irish some chances to make a big play. Running the ball against Purdue last year was not an issue - so I expect the Irish to have success again on the ground and opening up Brian Kelly's passing game even more.

Brian Kelly teams are not shy or timid - and the offenses go full speed trying to score as quickly as possible. Look for Notre Dame to have control with an early lead - coasting the rest of the game. Winning the turnover battle and special teams game, along with a few big plays from Michael Floyd and the shift slot WR Theo Riddick, will give BK the dominating opening win that he wants. Look for Purdue to have serious issues defending anything Notre Dame does - as well as Notre Dame #2s to get some action.

Original Prediction: ND 34 Purdue 24

Gameweek Prediction: Irish 38 Purdue 20

Changing the Culture - 2010 Season Prediction

2010-08-30T14:06:00.000-04:00

Before diving into my 2010 season predictions for the Irish, I wanted to share the predictions of long time ND beat writer Al Lesar from the South Bend Tribune - who gives a game by game prediction in this article in the SB Tribune last week.

Lesar predicts the Irish to go 8-4 - losing to Utah, Stanford, Michigan St, and Boston College, while defeating Michigan, USC, and Pittsburgh. Its hard to agree or disagree with Mr. Lesar's predictions at this point. No one has what we really need to predict the Irish win total - an answer to the question, "Has Brian Kelly changed the culture of this program?" A "No" means that we should expect the same erratic performances as last year - moments of brilliance followed by excruciating ones - creating a close game against Purdue as well as USC. Until the Irish can stop losing, as Brian Kelly has said during the spring and summer, we cant move forward towards winning.

With that key question in mind, lets begin the season prediction - starting at talent vs our opponents. While its debatable, majority of experts will agree that the Irish are more talented man for man than 5 opponents - Purdue, Western Michigan, Tulsa, Navy, and Army (save the Navy jokes, please) - on par with 6 opponents - Michigan (debatable), Michigan St, Stanford, Boston College, Pitt, Utah - and a bit behind 1 opponent - USC (debatable). The Irish return 8 or more starters on both sides of the ball in 2010 - which could be considered good or bad. The good news is that in 2009, the Irish had the ball in the final moments with a chance to win each of the 6 games they lost (yep, every single one of them); the bad news is that 4 of the Irish wins of 2009 were the opposite - holding on for dear life or scoring in the final minute. While the Irish might not have a talent surplus, in 2009 they certainly did not have a talent deficit.

While many point to a talent as the reason for losing, I point to shortcomings of the emotional, motivational, and mental variety that together comprise the "culture" of the program. So we come back to the key question - has BK been able to change the culture of the Irish program? We won't know for awhile, but chances are high that Brian Kelly knows how. While he hasn't seen the level of scrutiny he will find at ND, he has been a college head coach - not an assistant, but a head coach - for 19 seasons. Given his level of experience and success, I expect nothing less than for this team to play a higher percentage of games at their maximum potential - as opposed to playing down to the level of the competition like the 2009 team. Also, I expect losses - yes, I expect these - to be more about the other team's performance, rather than an Irish collapse or self inflicted wounds. The victories will be more emphatic and less hanging on for dear life. As the season progresses, there will be improvement and tangible evidence of learning from earlier mistakes. In short, I expect the Irish program to get back to discussions about our talent, and not our coaching.

With that in mind, the Vatican Smoke official preseason prediction:

vs. Purdue (W 34-24)
vs. Michigan (W 38-17)
at Michigan St (L 24-21)
vs Stanford (W 28-24)
at Boston College (W 28-20)
vs. Pittsburgh (L 27-24)
vs Western Michigan (W 42-17)
vs Navy (W 49-28)
vs Tulsa (W 42-24)
vs Utah (L 31-28 OT)
vs Army (W 45-17)
at USC (W 24-21 OT)
9 wins, 3 losses

Color me biased. Lots of high scores eh? The Irish were close to going 9-3 or 10-2 last year - but also very close to going 4-8. I think Brian Kelly closes the gap and takes a comparably to slightly less talented 2009 team, and turns them into the foundation for long term program success. The key pieces of the offense are all back - except the big one. Where the passing game steps back a good bit because of Clausen's departure, the passing scheme of Brian Kelly - combined with the newfound ability to run the football - combine to fill the void. Saturday at 330pm ET, maybe this 9-3 prediction will start to look really good . . . or worse.

Star Power

2010-08-25T10:29:00.000-04:00

Busy day today at Vatican Smoke with not one but two posts in one day. Recruiting rankings are a tenuous topic among many old school and new school college fans. This article in the Wall Street Journal was not surprising to me, although it might be to some.

I have always contended that recruiting rankings on a micro level - for one player - are certainly not perfect projections of that player's potential. However, Rivals and other sites have shown that the chances of making the NFL are higher for 5 stars than 3 stars - significantly in fact. From the 2010 NFL draft's first round, only 1 player was not a 3 star or higher coming out of high school; and since there are only 20 to 25 5 stars nationally per year, the 5 star still had the highest % chance of being drafted in the 1st round.

While there are numerous 5 star busts and 3 star players that make the NFL, the recruiting ranking that really matters is the class ranking for a program - over time. In the Wall Street Journal article from the top, the average star rating for starters is compared for the top schools. Not surprisingly, USC and Florida top the list, followed by Texas, Alabama, LSU, and the rest of the SEC. Yet interestingly enough, the Irish are 3rd. The anti-recruiting ranking folks will point to a potential Irish bias in recruiting rankings - getting higher marks than they deserve. The pro-recruiting folks - myself included - point to the lack of development and good enough coaching. Brian Kelly has developed talent everywhere he has coached, which means the pro-recruiting contingent now has a chance to see whether the Irish recruiting rankings were accurate and Weis did not develop them, or that Irish players get too generous a bump when they commit (which I contend is the opposite of what happens). I hope we see the former validated.

Speed It Up NBC

2010-08-25T09:08:00.000-04:00

Below is an article on a topic that I have been hearing rumblings on for a week or so. A few Irish beat writers wondered whether the long NBC telecasts would be especially harmful to the no huddle Brian Kelly offense. Another really good article here from Blue Gold Illustrated about the NBC question.

Certainly NBC's long timeouts pose an interesting wrinkle for a new no huddle offensive attack that is built to capitalize on the opponent's defense tiring. A TV timeout during an Irish scoring drive gives the defense rest and time to regroup. The same thing happens in the NCAA Basketball tournament, when CBS commercials enter the equation for many teams who benefit from the numerous TV timeouts. I don't know how important this really is, and I guess its likely preseason fodder for Irish fans hungry for September 4th. But I think its interesting because its obviously important enough for Brian Kelly and Jack Swarbrick to take time out and have discussions with NBC.

Helping the Irish offense aside, whether in the stadium or on your couch, I think we all agree that fewer TV timeouts and a tighter broadcast would be beneficial. NBC telecasts, while feeling like an hour longer than an ESPN game, are only 20 minutes longer on average. I was surprised at that. Hopefully the gap will continue to close, and I think BK's offense only provides a bit more pressure to NBC to speed things up.

Either Or

2010-08-12T22:12:00.000-04:00

Probably not many fans are more happy to have the previous season behind them than Irish fans. The past few weeks, I have probably read as many articles and news stories about Notre Dame football and college football than any other time of the year. Nothing is more speculative than a preseason preview from anyone - especially a beat writer, blogger, or even a coach.

Brian Kelly addressed the media last Friday before the first day of practice - his press conference detailed in this Chicago Sun Times piece from Rick Morrissey. Pay attention to the "Simply Being Realistic" section. Kelly details what he thinks are some strengths, but also candidly details some vulnerabilities. After the past 3 seasons, everyone knows the Irish have some weak points - but with a new regime and system, not everyone knows what they are (besides overall talent of course). Kelly gave what appears to be an honest assessment of the Irish weaknesses - first being the obvious lack of experience at QB, but also depth along the defensive line, consistency in the secondary, and consistency at kicker.

The most important of all those vulnerabilities is easily experience at QB. Dayne Crist has played in just 4 games, and only attempted 20 passes. Certainly he will be in a spread offense that is QB friendly, but his play will be critical. Depth on the defensive line, while important, becomes less important as the Irish shift back to the 3-4 defense the majority of the defensive players were recruited for (not to mention there's only 3 spots now). Kicking consistency is also important, but in my opinion such a lesser issue. Kicking is scrutinized more on bad teams - which the Irish have been the past few years. The kicking question is more reflective of all the close games the Irish played in the last two seasons.

Secondary consistency is the key question for me, beyond QB play. The old defensive adage of stopping the run first is certainly still valid, but to a lesser extent. Teams kill you with the pass now - while the run is merely an accomplice. Bob Diaco (Irish defensive coordinator) hopefully worked his butt off all summer trying to answer the question - how can we get better at defending the pass? I don't have the answer, but I can help him in this regard: the Irish cant get much worse than 76th in FBS at 228 yards per game. Improvement is likely with any new scheme. But don't get too excited - as Cincinnati ranked 78th in the country last year in pass defense.

Last year's defense had nothing to hang their hat on - as Weis used to say. You cant be bad against the run - 89th in the country - as well as bad against the pass. Hopefully Diaco & co are figuring out a way to at least be solid in one area. If the Irish can defend either or, they should be in good shape to at least have a chance at the Vegas over/under 8 win total. But then again, nothing's more speculative than a blogger in August.

Color Commentating

2010-08-08T13:24:00.000-04:00

Mike Mayock

NBC replaced the vacated color commentator seat on its Notre Dame telecast with Mike Mayock - former Boston College star and current NFL Network analyst. The seat was previously held by Pat Hayden, who recently departed to take the clean up job as the USC Director of Athletics. Good articles in the South Bend Tribune here, and also a more in depth article at Blue Gold here going into Mayock's background, which included 25 years of football broadcasting at the college & pro levels.

Pat Hayden did a good job providing balanced commentary and was even accused of being biased against Notre Dame at times. NBC clearly wanted to keep the color commentary seat as objective and unoffensive as possible. Two candidates I would have preferred - Joe Theismann and Chris Collinsworth - both have very strong qualifications, but also very strong ties to Notre Dame (Collinsworth's son Austin is a freshman WR, Theismann is obvious). These guys are very opinionated and naturally pro Irish. Each of these guys, while very educated and articulate about the game, likely would alienate a few viewers - particularly non-Notre Dame fans.

While I would prefer that NBC would have hired to please the Notre Dame fan base first, I get what NBC is shooting for. We're always going to watch the Irish play on NBC - but the fringe fans, or the opposing fans, are the ones that NBC doesn't want to piss off. Hiring a Boston College or USC grad is a solid start, and ensuring the hire is not overly offensive or unlikable is the key. NBC did that with Pat Hayden, and I presume so with Mike Mayock. From the looks of his qualifications (25 years in broadcasting), I would say he is going to be very familiar with both the college and pro game, and should be a very professional, likable, and down the middle hire. He might not be as entertaining for Notre Dame fans as Theismann would have, but he is probably going to be better for NBCs ratings in the casual viewer base. Now we all know the easiest way to increase NBCs ratings - lets hope Brian Kelly and Co. are working on that now, as fall camp opened yesterday. Best of luck to Mayock this fall.

Scheduling Chess

2010-08-07T12:51:00.000-04:00

Notre Dame announced its second major scheduling addition in the past month, as the Irish have inked a 4 game home and home series with Texas. The Irish will host the Longhorns in 2015 and 2020, while Texas is at home for 2016 and 2019. This comes after a 3 game agreement with the Miami Hurricanes earlier this summer (Soldier Field in 2012, then home and home in 2016-17). Both of these games will be fantastic opportunities for the Irish, and definitely will get the TV ratings any network will enjoy.

Compared to the Irish 2010 slate of home games versus Western Michigan, Tulsa, and Utah, new Athletic Director Jack Swarbrick is clearly reverting back to the old ND “play anyone anywhere” scheduling philosophy. Traditionally, ND always played a schedule that was above reproach, giving the Irish a baseline of respect with college football fans and conferences. Lately, weakened traditional opponents and a watered down scheduling philosophy by the former athletics director Kevin White have helped put Notre Dame in a weaker position at the BCS / conference realignment discussion table. Certainly losing has hurt our position the most, but the knocks on our schedule have personally been almost as difficult to handle for many Irish fans.

Lets assume the Irish will always be relevant, with a large, national following. In order to remain independent and in a position of strength with conference realignment and the BCS, the Irish first and foremost need to win more. A close second is that we schedule a competitive slate of opponents. Opponents of Irish independence have long thought that the exception made for Notre Dame was unfair. Weak scheduling will only give them more leverage, pointing to the Irish having an even easier path to the BCS. Scheduling powers like Texas and Miami is a step in the right direction of taking back the ground we’ve given up with our scheduling.

With a tough slate of games giving the Irish some respectibility, the Irish will have one less thing to worry about when it comes to the future of the BCS and conferences. Whether we will be independent in 10 years, I don’t know. But when we remain included in the next BCS, or we join a conference, a strong schedule can only validate what we do on the field. Speaking of that, with the upcoming schedules for the Irish, now we just have to win football games. We all know how difficult that’s been the last few years.

Hating Clausen

2010-07-28T18:06:00.000-04:00

Jimmy Clausen signed his NFL contract with the Carolina Panthers Wednesday morning, just in time for training camp. Signing at the last minute is common for NFL draft picks - particularly a quarterback with a high profile like Clausen. No doubt that the Panthers are a great situation for Clausen - a team with no proven quarterback, a solid running game, a conservative approach, and a coach friendly with the Weis system (John Fox). The contract is standard in guaranteed money ($2.4M), but with plenty of incentives should Clausen earn the starting job early in his career. Sounds like a pretty fair deal for both parties.

Clausen is a polarizing figure in recent Notre Dame history among Irish fans. While its normal for non-Irish fans to hate the Notre Dame quarterback, Clausen was different because many inside the family did not care for him much. Certainly some of the resentment among ND fans towards Clausen is due to the record his team's had while he was the Quarterback (16-18 as the starter). I understand that quarterbacks are ultimately judged by wins and losses than any other athlete. Even though a baseball pitcher's ERA always seems to validate his performance despite a bad win/loss record, this is not the case for a quarterback - who is expected to lead and win no matter what the circumstances.

Those Notre Dame fans that resent Jimmy because of his lack of wins I believe are too stubborn to look at the details. Whether you like Clausen or not, we all know that the 2007-2009 teams were some of the worst defensive teams ever at Notre Dame - giving up 29, 22, and 26pts per game, respectively. The 2009 team was finally talented enough, but was unable to close out games, losing 6 games by a total of 28 points. Certainly the offense could have done more in those games - but not much more. In those 6 losses of 2009, the offense averaged 29pts/game, while Clausen threw 15 TDs against only 2 INTs - completing over 65% of his passes. Its easy to see that Clausen performed well, and its even easy to acknowledge that the win loss record isn't the only way to evaluate a QB's performance. Why do many Notre Dame fans still resent Jimmy Clausen then?

The resentment of Jimmy Clausen within the Notre Dame family, as well as outside of it, was created by the circumstances of his arrival more than anything else. When Clausen announced his intentions to attend Notre Dame at a press conference in May of 2006, the event was nothing short of a disaster. A limousine with an entourage, spiked hair, and a show & tell of championship rings were all involved - each of which is towards the top of any PR person's list of don'ts. Clausen's announcement created the same overblown expectations and resentment as Lebron's recent "The Decision" - meaning only a national championship or 3 would restore him to the graces of many. Later, as the Charlie Weis era fell apart, Clausen became a symbol of the departing regime, embodying the player version of Charlie Weis - no doubt talented, but unable to win at the college level.

Obviously, I am a Clausen supporter. He made some initial mistakes as an 18 year old, creating a bad first impression he could never undo - just like Charlie Weis. No matter what you think about Clausen, you have to admit he is starting out on much better footing in the NFL with the Carolina Panthers than at Notre Dame. Clausen has had a quiet summer by all accounts, working hard in Charlotte and building a rapport with his new coaches and teammates. His expectations are helped by the fact that he's a 2nd round draft pick instead of a first, and since he plays in a mid-market city on a team that is expected to be average. I don't know whether Clausen will be a good NFL quarterback - but he isn't doomed for failure from the start like it seems he was at Notre Dame. I like to think he has taken his medicine and learned something from his Notre Dame experience as he starts a new chapter in his career. We'll see.

First Post of 2010

2010-07-27T13:11:00.000-04:00

Sadly, this is the first post of 2010 here at Vatican Smoke. Happy New Years I guess? The Pope took a sabbatical of sorts, taking time off to handle moving from Memphis, TN to Pittsburgh, PA, starting a new job, buying a house, and getting married. On top of all that, I've been decompressing from the heart break of the Charlie Weis era. It's been a busy 6 months, but I'm back with a new focus, and some hopefully entertaining takes on the upcoming 2010 Notre Dame football season.

Since the blog is starting up after a layover, now's a good time to define what Vatican Smoke is. The blog is not a reporting outlet with any inside knowledge or information; nor am I someone who is in the mainstream media (or media at all). I don't know more than the next guy, and I am certainly biased in my opinions (despite my burning desire to be objective). My writing skills are average, and I have no journalism pedigree. Why should you read this blog? Passionate sports fans need to commiserate with one another after a loss, celebrate with someone after a win, and work through a process of understanding why something incredible or terrible happened to their team. ESPN can't give you the community you need - (hopefully) Vatican Smoke can help. Especially after the last few years, every Notre Dame fan needs a bit of therapy. So enjoy some free, unlicensed treatment, here at Vatican Smoke.

In addition to a renewed purpose for the blog, here are a few specific goals & improvements for Vatican Smoke this season:

Shorter posts - I'm not an expert and this is not must read material for anyone. I appreciate the readers' time, and will be challenging myself to deliver something entertaining or at least stimulating in fewer words.
Minimal usage of bullet points and numbering - Damn. Of course this is delivered via a bullet point. Numbering and bullet pointed are writer's crutch, more appropriate for communicating facts, not opinions on a blog.
More relevant outside articles - The Fighting Irish have a lot of great beat reporters that follow the team closely with well written analysis. These guys provide great coverage, which is a great starting point for more blog posts.

So thats the plan for the 2010 season. As always, I'd love to hear what you think, positive or not. With practice starting 11 days from today, not to mention an exciting new coach, get ready for plenty of "therapy".

What Went Wrong

2009-12-17T14:56:00.000-05:00

Brian Kelly is off to a great public relations start to his coaching tenure at Notre Dame - already a local celebrity of sorts. Notre Dame fans are more tempered this time around, after getting overly excited at the start of the Charlie Weis and Ty Willingham eras. Coach Weis's opening press conference was exactly what the tired Notre Dame fanbase needed - energy through a display of bravado and arrogance. The Irish fans ate up that Charlie Weis opening monologue, spawning the typical "Return to Glory" and "Wake up the echoes" catch phrases. Brian Kelly's opening press conference was more like a politician's first words as an elected representative - grateful, careful, and inspiring. No matter how smooth or energetic Kelly looks, ND fans know better than to get overly excited before the first games are played. And even then, given that Weis and Willingham had arguably their best seasons in year 1, Irish fans should really wait until season 2 and 3.

Plenty of offseason remains to talk about Kelly and changes in the Irish football program - new coaches, recruiting, etc. In this post, I am closing the book on the Charlie Weis era - a final lookback that, at least from Vatican Smoke's perspective, will serve as an obituary for one of my favorite Notre Dame figures ever. After this post, the blog will focus on the Brian Kelly era, without looking back much to the past.

What went wrong? Two straight BCS bowls, elite recruiting, explosive offense, and optimism were the prevailing headlines of the first two years of the Charlie Weis era. How could such a talented offensive mind not win at Notre Dame - his alma matre? Here are some reasons why Charlie failed - as well as a few qualities of Charlie Weis that most Notre Dame fans should remember.

Charlie Weis never got a defense - neither thru recruiting or a defensive coordinator. When the Irish hired Jon Tenuta before the 2008 season, I was ecstatic. A hyper aggressive, plenty experienced DC that had manhandled the Irish in two games in 2006-07 - Tenuta appeared to bring an edge the Irish defense needed. Alas, the stubbornness and inability to adapt to the personnel at ND doomed Tenuta. Recruiting never produced consistently solid defensive lineman in enough numbers to disrupt running games or bring pressure on the quarterback.
Coach Weis's teams never improved as the season went on. Charlie Weis's record from November 1st thru the end of the season during his 5 years was 11-13. In 2007-2009 (the last 3 seasons), his record was just 4-10 from November 1st on. Good teams get better and finish the season strong, peaking when it matters. Outside of the wins against Stanford ('07) and Hawaii ('08), the Irish lost the final game Weis's other 3 seasons.
Charlie never beat the elite teams - or many ranked teams for that matter. Notre Dame was just 1-8 versus top 10 ranked teams (ranked at the time of the game - the lone win being Charlie's second career game in 2005 at Michigan, a team finished 7-5); even worse really, the Irish were a terrible 4-12 against ranked teams. Charlie was 0-5 against USC, 2-3 against Michigan, and 1-2 against Boston College. I have nothing to add here.
Charlie's initial arrogance created a schism with some alumni that was never repaired. Charlie's initial arrogance and unwillingness to appear at the traditional alumni events during his first two years came back to haunt him during the the 3-9 campaign of 2007, as his character description changed from "colorful and confident" to "arrogant and a$$hole". Numerous people never forgave Charlie for his early transgressions - too many people that mattered. These people pushed hard during 2007 - 2009 to get Charlie out, and eventually succeeded.
Coach Weis's physical limitations eventually were harmful to the program. College football players need inspiration and energy to play one of the more emotional sports around. Weis's appearance quite simply drained energy from the program. Constantly hobbling around, on crutches, or the butt of fat jokes, the program was never able to shake the image that Weis portrayed physically. The Jersey accent and hooded sweatshirts didn't impress anyone either. While not as important as the above reasons, there is no way around it - appearance matters for those who wish to lead. Do presidents and CEOs look sloppy, wearing sweatshirts, with serious weight issues? Do leaders drive around in a golf cart, always in need of physical assistance? There are certainly leaders with physical disabilities. However, a) there aren't that many and b) even fewer of them are great football coaches.
Charlie Weis proved that Notre Dame can recruit elite talent once again. Charlie's 5 recruiting classes at Notre Dame finished ranked 30th, 8th, 8th, 2nd, and 21st. The first class was 98% Willingham in 2005, so we will remove that, since Weis was winning a Super Bowl with the Patriots. The current commits for the next year's 2010 class are 98% Weis, so we will add the current ranking of 12th. Weis's average national ranking/finish in his 5 recruiting efforts was 10.2. Not bad. Given all the restrictions at ND, an average class ranked #10 is about as good as we can reasonably ask for. Texas's average class rank during those same 5 years was 9.8, while Florida was 6.2; yet USC was tops over those 5 years with an average class rank of 3.2. Many thought ND could never recruit elite talent again - whether because of the location, academics, or lack of recent championships. Weis debunked that myth.
Charlie Weis ran a clean program - one that we are all proud of off the field. In 2009 Notre Dame football actually shared the top spot in graduation rates for Division 1-A - which is nothing short of amazing. Off the field, the worst things that happened under Weis were a few minor alcohol issues, and some on campus stuff that happens with college kids. All in all, Weis performed as expected in the off the field arena: maintaining the high standards of Notre Dame off the field, while graduating players on time.
Charlie Weis is a good person. Many people assume Charlie's confidence/arrogance is an indicator of the type of person he outside of football. In reality, Charlie's Jersey / Bill Parcell's type attitude was just the football Charlie. Outside of work, Charlie gives all his time to his family - quite often to the charity his wife Maura and he founded in honor of his autistic daughter (Hannah & Friends). Go to CharlieWeis.com - and see where you end up. Other coaches sell tshirts and calendars on their website. Not Charlie.

Bottom line: Charlie is an innovative football mind that was not able to adjust quickly enough to the head coaching of college football. He was excruciatingly close in so many areas (recruiting, offense), but came up short in many others (defense, media relations, close losses). A majority of the issues with Coach Weis boil down to a lack of college football head coaching experience - clearly the #1 criteria in finding our new football coach. What Charlie Weis lacked, Brian Kelly certainly has. Will BK be successful? If the initial excitement and deflation of the Charlie Weis and Ty Willingham eras taught us anything, its that we have to temper expectations and not resort to naming a new coach savior after beating Purdue.

We'll miss you Charlie - and we'll always remember the great times (Michigan '05, USC '05, Michigan St '06, Michigan '08). And most people, including myself, are sorry it didn't work out. We know that you love Notre Dame with all your heart, and tried your damndest to get the program back on track. You left the Notre Dame football program better off than it was when you arrived, and you'll be a ton better NFL Offensive Coordinator now because of this experience. Best of luck.

The BK era begins . . . coaching staff should be announced within a week, and recruiting is super busy right now. Sounds like BK should be able to get a top 15 class, very possibly top 10. And a good staff as well. Stay tuned.

The Final Hours

2009-12-10T15:20:00.001-05:00

While nothing is official yet, it appears that Cincinnati Head Football Coach Brian Kelly will officially accept the Notre Dame coaching position this evening. I have no inside info or any sources more than you do, but some of the best in the Notre Dame coverage business (Tim Prister, Mike Frank), think that all things are pointing to Kelly. The crux of the timing is that tonight is Cincinnati's team banquet - where Kelly would almost have to address the Notre Dame job one way or another. He could have his resounding "I'm here at Cincy to stay" moment, but many educated Notre Dame people think he will reveal that he has accepted the Notre Dame job.

Vatican Smoke has been silent during the coaching search for a few reasons. First, there really was no info that was wholeheartedly reliable. The lack of information created a vacuum for every internet rumor known to man. The guys at Blue Gray Sky even planted a rumor, tracking it from an email and a few tweets all the way to a national news source. Jack Swarbrick has played this very close to the vest - kudos to him for that. Second reason for silence - since the Irish are not going to a bowl game, we have the entire offseason to dissect the hire - as well as dissect what went wrong with the Charlie Weis era. I felt that judgement and predictions would be wasted energy until we actually hire a coach and some time.

Bottom line here is that Vatican Smoke supports whomever Notre Dame and Jack Swarbrick hires. Swarbrick is a Notre Dame alum that is intelligent, experienced, and not an academic trying to play athletic director (Dr. Kevin White anyone?). The public is not privy to the decision process, and quite simply alums and fans must do something that should be natural to Notre Dame fans: have faith. A coaching search is hardly a matter for the Pope, but rather, I mean that we need to have faith in our Athletics Director, trusting that he will make the right choice. Everyone knows that this is one of the most important decisions Jack Swarbrick or Father Jenkins will ever make in their lives - so don't you think they want to get it right?

Not all coaching hires are definite successes or failures. Remember, when Lou Holtz was hired, it was a very ho-hum hire, bringing in a coach who got ran out of the NFL and had been a head coach at 4 colleges. What about how we felt when Charlie was hired? Not many Irish fans thought he would fail - but rather the question was how many championships he would win, and how fast. If Charlie Weis taught us anything as ND fans, its that we'd rather be happy in 3 years than at the press conference to announce our new coach.

Lets be patient, have faith, and reserve judgement until the proper time.

Waiting

2009-11-25T13:25:00.000-05:00

Many people have asked me this week what I thought about the UConn loss. Others have made statements around me like "Man, that UConn loss has got to be the worst loss in ND history". Nearly all of the people that make these comments or ask questions about the loss, quite frankly, just don't "get it".

Notre Dame is waiting for a new football coach. One game here, another there, they don't matter as much as who will be heading the program in the next week. Watching the UConn game was the least frustrating and most peaceful viewing of a Notre Dame game that I have ever had. Rooting for the Irish to win is a given - but losing to UConn would only make the coaching change more inevitable. Moving on with a new coach is what we need - and beating UConn & Stanford would have been some momentum in the opposite direction. That's why the UConn game was so stress free for me - there was benefit no matter what the outcome. And don't downplay UConn - these guys have a solid football team that have lost 3 games in the final 30 seconds to good teams.

So what's the outlook on new coaches? Hopefully we will know more in a weeks time. I think that other than Jon Gruden, the candidate must have a proven head coaching track record in college. Brian Kelly (pictured), Urban Meyer, Bob Stoops, Gary Patterson, and Paul Johnson all fit that bill. Make no mistake about it - while the ND job will attract tons of very tough attention and pressure, ND is still a place where you can win - and win next season. Here is a very scientific formula for you: A new defensive minded coach + returning talent + recruiting (85% of commitments said they will keep their pledges unless a crazy hire is made) + the fact that all 6 losses were close games (4pts, 7pts, 2pts, 5pts, 3pts, whatever to Stanford) + another favorable schedule in 2010 = a great chance to win 8 games next year. Having an average defense would have won the Irish 9 games, maybe more this season. Just think if Charlie could have ever gotten a defense - he'd still be our coach next year.

For Charlie's sake, I hope the Irish come out to play for him against Stanford. The Cardinal run game is going to be tough to stop, so if I were the Irish, I would come out guns blazing and let Jimmy do what he does - throw it around the yard. Certainly it would make sense for us to establish a rushing attack. We will never be able to truly rush the ball with authority while we have such a good QB and WR core. Lets do what we are good at (passing the rock), which happens to be Stanford's biggest weakness (pass defense). However, I don't expect this game to show us anything new about the Irish or Charlie Weis. Another close game and frustrating loss awaits Irish fans (as I predicted in the preseason, a loss to Stanford):

IRISH 27 STANFORD 34

(Vatican Smoke is 7-4 picking the winners, and 7-4 against the spread as well)

Remember this - things are never as bad or as good as they seem. There are some talented young players on our team waiting for a new coach, and some small improvements could have made a 3 to 4 game difference this season. We arent as far away from respectability as the media will have you believe. Brighter days are ahead.

Have a great thanksgiving!! There will be tons of good stuff to discuss in the coming two weeks, so stay tuned Irish fans.

UConn Game Preview

2009-11-20T17:55:00.000-05:00

Tomorrow the Irish unfortunately play a game that is quite possibly the least anticipated game in recent memory. The game is nothing more than an afterthought at this point, with the current coaching administration seemingly on its way out. The game versus UConn is supposed to be a solid November matchup that is meaningful for bowl aspirations and for seniors (its senior day). Unfortunately the game has lost all luster because most fans don't see anything new or exciting come from the Weis coaching staff in game 61 as we've come to fear in the first 60 iterations.

Instead of a game preview, here's a different take on the game tomorrow. Being senior day, there have been some good writeups like this one about the current senior class - Weis's first full recruiting class that he signed in February of 2006. This 28 man class was the class that got the recruiting train rolling for Weis, with the class finishing as the #8 ranked class in the nation. This class marked the beginning of what was going to be the journey towards the return to national top 10. Unfortunately, the class did more for our hopes than it did on the field. The 2006 recruiting class embodies the Weis era in a lot of ways. Each started out with success and was instantly a symbol of the continuous improvement that was surely ahead. Being ranked #8 as a recruiting class, the sentiment was that these guys would lay the foundation for the future, and Weis would recruit even better once he built upon this foundation. Just like for Weis, the promise of this class slowly started to erode. An astounding number of players transfered - 10 - including the loss of 5 four star players (interestingly enough, one 4 star player will be suiting up as the starting QB for Connecticut, Zach Frazier, who lost out to Jimmy Clausen in 2007). Great article covering this class in the Chicago Tribune by Brian Hamilton, here.

Just like the 2006 recruiting class, can't blame everything on Coach Weis. Ultimately he will take the blame - because he is the coach and the "buck stops there". But certainly Weis was handed a top heavy roster that collapsed in 2007 and 2008, based on the lack of recruiting by his predecessor. The 2006 class was mostly good kids that loved Notre Dame - mostly honest and hard working, - just like Coach Weis. The class and coach that were supposed to be the savior are not terrible failures, but I'd prefer to view each as honest efforts that came up short. Sure, thats going soft on them. But the damage has been done - do we really need to keep pointing the finger, dancing over their grave? On senior day, these 2006 class seniors deserve their senior day; Lord knows they have been through a wild 4 years. Just like Weis, they deserve to leave with dignity, not indignation.

I hope the Irish kick UConn's ass tomorrow - and play their best game of the season. However, as much as I want to see Weis and these seniors leave on a decent high note, I cannot bring myself to expect a breakthrough performance for Weis in game 60, or these seniors in game 48. Prediction:

Notre Dame 27 UConn 24

(Vatican Smoke record straight up picking the Irish games is 7-3 on the season; 6-4 against the spread)

The Beginning of the End

2009-11-19T18:00:00.000-05:00

With the loss to Pitt last weekend, most believe that the Charlie Weis era will end after the Stanford game next weekend. We are at the beginning of an annoying amount of media speculation, "updates" and other fodder that will be on every tv show, print newspaper, or magazine that covers sports. Personally, I will hate the two weeks because the games seem relatively meaningless until we know the fate of Coach Weis. Football fans are supposed to be excited about watching the games, but likely most ND fans are considerably less excited than normal for the final 2 games against UConn and Stanford.

Remember over the next few weeks, that daily ESPN "updates" are typically nothing more than regurgitated quotes and speculation - rarely offering any true insight to the situation. If Athletics Director Jack Swarbrick is half the sensible business man he appears to be, his decision and the coaching search (if needed) will be as tight lipped as humanly possible. Information leaks to the media will only fuel the fire, typically resulting in coaches in speculation getting raises or extensions, or releasing statements saying they "aren't interested in Notre Dame". These measures are often incredibly selfish, using the ND coaching search for personal gain, based on pure rumor or hearsay and not actual interest by Notre Dame. My favorite was back 5 years ago when Mark Mangino (Kansas coach), "pulled his name out of the ND coaching search". Thanks Mark, I doubt we were interested.

We've established that no one - not ESPN, not "IRISHFAN" handle on your favorite message board, nor your cousin that supposedly is friends with Charlie Weis's family - no one knows whether Weis will officially be fired, or who his replacement might be. So now, we can move on not to speculation on whats actually going to happen, but opinions of what should happen.

Charlie Weis should be fired by Notre Dame on Sunday, November 29th, the day after the Stanford game.

Weis is a good man and a good, hard working coach. He has kept academics at the highest level possible, while recruiting good young men with football skills. His teams have nary had an off the field issue that was not minor in the grand scheme of a program (Tennessee, I'm looking at you!). He is an alum that gives what little time he has left to his family's charity, and he loves the school immensely. This man needs to be treated with respect and class, but alas, shown the door.

As I've stated before, Weis will be remembered as the person who answered the key question of doubt about Notre Dame football: Can we recruit with the elite programs? The answer is a resounding yes. Notre Dame football can get enough talent to win a National Championship. Maybe not every year, and certainly there are less recruits available to us than Alabama, Florida, USC, etc. But the talent level will be there if you find the right recruiter.

Moving on towards who the next coach should be is tough, but since this is a blog, we'll do it. Typically when teams or program fire a coach, they hire the opposite: someone with opposite traits to balance out the problems with the previous coach. We'll start with Weis's main problems that have caused him to be a failure as a head coach at Notre Dame, in my opinion:

Lack of head coaching experience
Lack of college head or assistant coaching experience
Defensive coaching

All this means two candidates rise as the top two guys in addition to the another candidate who always can have the job (Urban Meyer). The two coaches that fulfill the 3 deficiencies of the Weis era are Bob Stoops (Oklahoma) and Brian Kelly (Cincinnati). More next week on these 3 candidates and why I think each would be a good head coach at Notre Dame. Pitt game preview tomorrow.

Pitt Preview

2009-11-13T13:38:00.000-05:00

The Irish travel to #8 ranked Pittsburgh Saturday night (7pm, ABC) in what could be the most important game of Charlie Weis's career. The Pitt Panthers are 8-1 and have control of their own destiny in the Big East conference. Pitt is very talented and will be one of the if not the best team the Irish have faced all season. Yours truly will be on hand for the game at Heinz Field, which should be around 40 degrees at gametime.

Due to traveling, not much time available for a preview. During the week reading about Pitt, it sounds like this program is really confident and ready for the Irish. The Irish are either going to be inspired or scared, and I'm not sure which. Jimmy and company should be able to move the ball a bit on the Panthers, who have a great defensive line that is near tops in the country in sacks. Pitt has been efficient offensively, balanced with the pass and the run. This has the feel of a shootout in the 30s, a close game won by the team who gets the ball last. Turnovers will obviously be key - an area the Irish have performed well in every game except last week. I expect the Irish defense and defensive line in particular to thrive upon facing a pro style offensive attack instead of the option attack.

Flat out, this has the makings of being a great football game. I expect the Irish to play one of their better games of the year, but the game to still be close and in doubt. I have to give the edge because their front 4 should be able to rush Clausen - allowing more defenders to drop back into coverage. The home crowd and tension building under the Weis coaching situation will also favor the Panthers; a superhuman effort from Jimmy Clausen might not be enough. Prediction:

Pitt 34 Notre Dame 31

(Vatican Smoke is 6-3 picking ND games straight up, and 5-4 against the spread)