Vegas Watch

2012 MLB Wins Over/Unders

2012-02-20T13:47:00.008-05:00

New York  93.0  o-115    Detroit     94.0  o-115    Texas       94.0  o-115
Tampa Bay 87.5  o-122    Kansas City 78.5  u-119    Los Angeles 89.5  o-135
Boston    87.5  o-115    Chicago     77.5  o-115    Oakland     73.0  o-115
Toronto   81.5  u-124    Cleveland   75.5  o-115    Seattle     72.5  u-125
Baltimore 71.0  o-115    Minnesota   74.0  o-115

Phila.    95.5  o-115    Cincinnati  87.0  o-115    San Fran.   87.5  u-120
Atlanta   85.5  o-115    St. Louis   87.0  u-135    Arizona     84.5  o-130
Miami     82.5  o-145    Milwaukee   81.5  o-115    Colorado    81.5  o-120
Wash.     81.0  o-122    Chicago     73.5  o-115    Los Angeles 81.5  u-125
New York  74.5  o-132    Pittsburgh  73.0  o-115    San Diego   70.5  u-128
                         Houston     62.5  u-120

These are all 30-cent lines, so if the over is -120, the under is -110.

Three things that jump out:

Astros!
Gap between the Tigers and the rest of the ALC
Has to be the first time ever that the Rays are ahead of the Red Sox

This Is Also Completely Wrong

2012-01-31T14:51:00.008-05:00

Same article:

Will Rob Gronkowski score a touchdown?
Yes: -160
No: +140

Will Rob Gronkowski score a touchdown in the first half?
Yes: +175
No: -200

These two bets, taken together, are a very weird mix. The given likelihood of Gronkowski scoring a touchdown in the first half is just 35.3 percent, but his odds of scoring a touchdown in the game are at 59.6 percent. Those two numbers imply that Gronkowski will score in the second half about 92.1 percent of the time, and that a bet on Gronkowski not scoring in the second half would have true odds of about +1166 or so. I hope somebody offers that.

I have no idea. 92.1%? I don't know, man.

Eighth(?) grade probability time!

The setup:

The math:

.647 * x = .404
x = .624
1-x = .376

The result:

So illogical!!!!

Doing the math wrong...whatever. But doing the math wrong, getting an answer that MAKES NO SENSE, assuming you are correct, and just going with it? And if those two lines were truly implying something insane for the 2H, wouldn't one side of the 1H or FG line have to be way off, too? So...maybe look into that?

How Not To Handicap A Prop Bet

2012-01-31T14:08:00.010-05:00

I still can't believe Barnwell actually wrote this:

What will the jersey number be of the first player to score a touchdown?
Over 80.5: EVEN
Under 80.5: -120

Few things have made me question my life decisions more than putting together a spreadsheet to answer this question. But I did it, taking every player who has scored for these two teams this year, removing guys who aren't going to play on Sunday, adjusting for the games they played in and missed. It was so fucking stupid on so many levels. But I did it. And in the end, I got an expected number of … 64.4. Great, so an offensive lineman is likely to score on Sunday! In reality, it just suggests that the running backs for the teams are likely a little undervalued here, and that logic only goes further with a possibly-limited Gronkowski (number 87). Go under here, but realize that we're all losers for playing.

I have no interest in legitimately handicapping this (I guess that makes two of us), so I just adjusted the numbers for people listed at Pinny to make them fit to "an expected number of ... 64.4":

As noted, the weighted average of these is 64.4. Based on this information, Bill Barnwell recommended the under. Hopefully the reason that this is horrendous analysis is really obvious.

If you do this really sophisticated thing called adding, however, you get 48.5% for the under. With the exact same data set. With a line of -120. So an ROI of -11.1%. Sometimes referred to as lighting money on fire. While, based on that same (made up) data, the other side is +EV, with a 51.5% bet being offered at +100.

I don't really have a point to close with here, so:

The Most Ridiculous Super Bowl XLVI Props

2012-01-31T09:39:00.011-05:00

Fifth annual, and still going strong(?). Here we go:

Who will win the Super Bowl XLVI Coin Toss?

SportsBetting:
Giants, +102
Patriots, +102

What will be the result of Super Bowl XLVI Coin Toss?

SportsBetting:
Heads, +102
Tails, +102

Not quite as good as last year, but this is still one of my favorites.

Will Gisele Bundchen be shown on TB during the game?
From kickoff to final whistle, live pictures only, halftime does not count.

Bodog:
Yes, -160
No, +120

5Dimes:
Yes, -215
No, +165

Arb! I tried to research this one but gave up after finding a fake Gisele Super Bowl blog and discovering that she is supposedly on her way to becoming very, very wealthy.

I went with "Yes, -160" at Bodog, which I cannot back up with math.

Who will be shown first?

SportsBetting:
Giselle Bundchen, -125
Abby Manning, -105

SportsInteraction
Giselle Bundchen, -120
Abby Manning, -120

I don't get why Giselle isn't favored by more; isn't she a LOT more famous than Eli's wife?

Who will the MVP thank first?

This one is the best. Sportsbook also has the same prop for winning coach rather than MVP, and is offering "Does Not Thank Anyone" at +800. My unofficial summary from the last four years:

Last year some books graded it as Rodgers thanking the defense (teammates), and some graded "Does Not Thank Anyone" as a winner since he didn't say the word "thank". Either way, +250 continues to be a great price, available across the board.

Color of Gatorade dumped on winning coach?

Not sure about this one. It's been orange the last two years, but yellow and clear the two before that; Stockle Mon has a more extensive summary. Since it was clear/water the last time each of these teams won and four of the last nine dumps, that seems like the best pick here if you can get the +215.

Will Kelly Clarkson omit/forget a word of the National Anthem?

5Dimes:
Yes, +700
No, -1500

Bodog:
Yes, +300

Inspired by last year's mishap. No real opinion here; if anything I'd take the +700 at 5D, but probably just stay away.

How long will it take Kelly Clarkson to sing the National Anthem?

5Dimes:
Over 1:34, +100
Under 1:34, -140

Sportsbook:
Over 1:35, -115
Under 1:35, -115

Bodog:
Over 1:34, -120
Under 1:34, -120

SportsInteraction:
Over 134.5, -115
Under 134.5, -125

Stockle Mon has also researched this one quite a bit (good work!), and it doesn't seem like there's much of an edge. So, when in doubt, line shop. Here is my completely-made-up estimate of the probability of the total time being within each second:
The thought behind the skew was that 1:34 is a pretty low time, so there's more room to go way higher than way lower.

That was an unbelievable waste of time, but it does allow me to see if a middle might be worthwhile:

That's assuming the 5Dimes line is efficient (which is not true at all), but you can shift the graph around a bit and you still come out ahead, so I went for the O1:34/U1:35 middle.

Which city will receive a higher TV ratings (market share)?

Bodog:
Boston -7, -120
New York +7, -120

Reader Will W. recommended this one, noting that he laid the chalk. Wikipedia tells us that Boston won by 14 four years ago (81-67), although it seems possible that was a bit inflated since the Pats were 18-0.

There are also a bunch of props on what Madonna will wear/do at halftime, but I don't have much to add to those.

2011 NFL Survior: Second Round

2012-01-10T15:41:00.005-05:00

Well, the Texans-Broncos combo worked out well, which was fortunate. In my particular pool Houston actually ended up being more popular than New Orleans, which must have been people wanting to save NOLA for future rounds. That made Saints-Broncos the best combo from an round one EV standpoint, although it's obviously not as attractive when you consider future value.

Anyway, on to the next round. This week I only need to make one pick. I think it makes more sense to look at this from the standpoint of picking a path the rest of the way, rather than just picking one team this week.

For example, if I pick Baltimore this week, that basically means I need to pick the DEN-NE winner next week, since if that team doesn't beat Baltimore I'm screwed anyway. And then in the Super Bowl I'd be left with the NFC winner, since I wouldn't have the AFC champ available.

With that in mind, here are my estimates for surviving through each round based on who you pick this week, which I figured out using various Pinny markets:

Worth noting that there's a negative correlation between the R2 and CC columns. For example, if you pick DEN this week and they win, then you get to pick either Baltimore or Houston hosting the Broncos next week. On the other hand, if you pick New England and advance, you're forced to take the Ravens or Texans on the road in Foxboro, which is less than ideal.

The numbers in this chart didn't surprise me much. Baltimore is the obvious choice, since if BAL advances you can (likely) take New England next week, and then the (likely favored) NFC in the Super Bowl.

I don't think they're the best pick though, as popularity has a huge effect here:

Realistically, I have no idea how many people are going to pick the underdogs; it hasn't happened in either of the last two years in this pool, but there are a lot more people left at this point than there have been in the past.

I don't think it really matters though. As long as you're in a decent sized pool, I would go with Denver. It's an extremely ugly pick this week -- which is the best part, really -- but it puts you in a great position in future weeks, and gives you a chance to be the only person to remain undefeated through the Super Bowl.

2011 NFL Survivor: Wild Card Weekend

2012-01-04T13:03:00.004-05:00

Quick format summary: Same idea as regular season Survivor: except pick one team on Wild Card Saturday, one on WC Sunday, one in second round, one on CC Sunday, one in Super Bowl. Can't use any team twice, lose and you're out.

As noted on Twitter the other day, this year's first round doesn't set up quite as favorably as it has in the past.

Last season there was a huge favorite on Saturday (New Orleans) which was extremely popular, as you'd expect. But on Sunday, the majority of entrants picked the Ravens, who were the day's biggest favorite but only ~61% to win. This essentially meant that any of the other three Sunday options were strong picks, particularly the Chiefs (who got blown out, of course).

This year both days set up pretty much the same as that Saturday, with the Saints at ~84% to beat the Lions, and Pittsburgh about 78% to advance against Denver. The one positive is that taking those two is the very obvious pick, and I'd expect over half the entries to go that route. In fact, I have made up consensus numbers for each team:

Saints 70%
Texans 17%
Bengals 10%
Lions 3%

Steelers 68%
Giants 17%
Falcons 8%
Broncos 7%

These numbers, along with the MLs from Pinny, give us almost everything we need. Just a few more things to consider:

If someone picks New Orleans on Saturday, they're more likely to take Pittsburgh on Sunday than the average entry. In math terms, the % of entries that take both NO and PIT will be higher than the straight calculation of (.70)*(.68). This is taken into account in the EV table below.

Future value isn't normally too much of an issue in the first round, since the teams that advance will all be playing road games next weekend. However, this season the Saints are the second favorite to win the NFC (+298/-341 at Pinny), so that must be considered. Pittsburgh also has a worthwhile amount of future value (+528/-642), if not quite as much. This is not taken into account in the EV table below.

Beyond a specific team's future value, it's worth considering how you set yourself up for future weeks. For example, I think it's worthwhile to try to avoid picking the Lions if possible. That way, if the Saints win (likely) and I advance (maybe), I'll have the option of picking New Orleans over SF next week, which will not be a popular option since a) most survivors will have already used them, and b) they're on the road.

And finally, the EV table below (assuming $1 entry fee):

Unsurprisingly, the really obvious combo doesn't do very well in this analysis, as even if you advance by picking those two teams, it's guaranteed that at least half of your competitors will still be alive as well.

Such a popular pick being -EV allows 14 of the other 15 possibilities to be at least breakeven. Since I'm assuming only a 17/10 split in popularity between HOU/CIN, despite the Texans being 62% to advance, they come out looking like a pretty good option to pair with any non-Steelers partner.

I think the EVs in the chart above give us a good general idea of the best picks, but it's tough to be exact due to the uncertainty and importance of the consensus numbers. I will stand by Texans/Broncos as the best combo though, as it has a decent lead on the field.

Of course, there's a 87% chance that combo doesn't survive the weekend; all I'm really trying to do here is predict which option will have the highest EV when I repeat this analysis with the "real" consensus numbers next week.

2011 NFL Survivor: Week 17

2011-12-31T12:47:00.004-05:00

Last week:

CAR: W, 48-16
PIT: W, 27-0
BAL: W, 20-14
HOU: L, 19-16
TEN: W, 23-17
WAS: L, 33-26
GB: W, 35-21

Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans,Tennessee, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Dallas, NY Jets, San Francisco, Baltimore, Atlanta, Carolina.

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

Impressively, I've already used each of the seven biggest favorites this week. That leaves me picking from some pretty marginal teams, but the best option left is Jacksonville, so they're the final pick of the regular season. Coming next week: Playoff Survivor!

2011 NFL Survivor: Week 16

2011-12-20T10:33:00.006-05:00

Last week:

TEN: L, 27-13
ATL: W, 41-14
NO: W, 42-20
GB: L, 19-14
ARI: W, 20-17
NYG: L, 23-10
CIN: W, 20-13

Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Dallas, NY Jets, San Francisco, Baltimore, Atlanta.

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

I'm pleasantly surprised that I have two decent options available this week, in the Panthers and Redskins. Carolina is a bit more likely to win and not overly popular, so they are the pick for Week 16.

2011 NFL Survivor: Week 15

2011-12-13T11:47:00.005-05:00

Last week:

BAL: W, 24-10
PIT: W, 14-3
SEA: W, 30-13
NYJ: W, 37-10
DET: W, 34-28
GB: W, 46-16

Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Dallas, NY Jets, San Francisco, Baltimore.

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

The Falcons are easily my best option this week, so they are the pick.

2011 NFL Survivor: Week 14

2011-12-07T16:00:00.003-05:00

Last week:

SF: W, 26-0
NE: W, 31-24
CHI: L, 10-3
BAL: W, 24-10
NO: W, 31-17
DAL: L, 19-13

Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Dallas, NY Jets, San Francisco.

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

Picking the most popular team again, but I really have no choice but to go with Baltimore this week.

2011 NFL Survivor: Week 13

2011-11-30T10:03:00.004-05:00

Last week:

ATL: W, 24-14
CIN: W, 23-20
PIT: W, 13-9
DAL: W, 20-19
CAR: W, 27-19
NYJ: W, 28-24
HOU: W, 20-13

Well that is boring.

Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Dallas, NY Jets.

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

The Patriots are a ridiculously good option this week, at ~95% to win and only being used by about 1 in 4 entries. Sadly I have already used them.

Beyond that, the 49ers are by far the biggest favorite of the teams I have left. They're more popular than I'd prefer, but they really don't have much future value, so San Francisco is the pick this week.

2011 NFL Survivor: Week 12

2011-11-21T14:42:00.006-05:00

Last week:

NE: W, 34-3
SF: W, 23-7
DET: W, 49-35
GB: W, 35-26
NYJ: L, 17-13
DAL: W, 27-24
ATL: W, 23-17
CHI: W, 31-20
BAL: W, 31-24

Thanks, Graham.

Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Dallas.

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

My three best options this week are the Jets, Chargers, and Falcons. San Diego is a lot less likely to win than New York, and Atlanta is a lot more popular, so this week's pick is the Jets.

Happy Thanksgiving.

2011 NFL Survivor: Week 11

2011-11-15T09:56:00.005-05:00

Last week:

PHI: L, 21-17
BAL: L, 22-17
GB: W, 45-7
SD: L, 24-17
JAX: W, 17-3

I don't know what the record is for most outright losses in a season when favored by >7 points, but the Eagles are gunning for it. That's four.

Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Green Bay.

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

New England (vs. Kansas City)

Already used.

San Francisco (vs. Arizona)

The 49ers are a strong pick this week, but I'm going to want to use them at home against the Rams in Week 13.

Detroit (vs. Carolina) Green Bay (vs. Tampa Bay)

Already used.

NY Jets (at Denver)

The Jets are only about 73% to win, but the teams that are more likely to advance also have more future value, so we might have to come back to them.

Dallas (at Washington)

Another solid option -- not as likely to win as San Francisco, but a lot less popular. Unfortunately the plan was to use the Cowboys in Week 12, but I may need to revisit that.

Atlanta (vs. Tennessee)
Chicago (vs. San Diego)

Both inferior options to the Jets.

Baltimore (vs. Cincinnati)

The Ravens still host the Colts and Browns, so can't use them here.

I see two viable options here:

NYJ this week, DAL/ATL/SD next week
DAL this week, NYJ/ATL/SD next week

The Cowboys are clearly the better option this week, and there's still a lot of uncertainty with the probability/popularity of each team next week, so I'm going with Dallas.

2011 NFL Survivor: Week 10

2011-11-08T11:13:00.004-05:00

Last week:

HOU: W, 30-12
ATL: W, 31-7
DAL: W, 23-13
OAK: L, 38-24
KC: L, 31-3
NE: L, 24-20
NO: W, 27-16
PHI: L, 30-24

That was unfortunate, but might as well keep going for 16-1.

Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee, Philadelphia.

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

Green Bay is the best option this week, by quite a wide margin. The Chargers are really the only other viable option, and SD does have to use a lot less future value, but you have to use the really good teams at some point. This week's pick is the Packers.

2011 NFL Survivor: Week 9

2011-11-01T10:35:00.006-04:00

Last week:

BAL: W, 30-27
SF: W, 20-10
NYG: W, 20-17
NO: L, 31-21
TEN: W, 27-10
HOU: W, 24-14

The flipping Cardinals.

Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee.

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

Houston (vs. Cleveland)

Already picked.

Atlanta (at Indianapolis)

Not sure why the Falcons are so popular in Y!. Despite my apparent obsession with fading the Colts, no real interest in Atlanta this week.

Dallas (vs. Seattle)

The Cowboys are the second biggest favorite of the week by a pretty good margin, and not especially popular (particularly in OFP). So that is a good start. They don't have much future value either, with one exception -- hosting the Dolphins in Week 12. That wouldn't normally be a huge deal, but W12 is shaping up to be tricky.

Oakland (vs. Denver)

Speaking of the Broncos. The Raiders aren't favored by as much as the Cowboys, but they're noticeably less popular, and if I don't use Oakland now I can't see there being another opportunity.

Kansas City (vs. Miami)

Not even close.

New England (vs. NY Giants)

New Orleans (vs. Tampa Bay)

Already used.

Philadelphia (vs. Chicago)

A third solid option; big favorites and almost nobody's using them. Future value-wise, the Eagles are going to be large favorites against the Cardinals next week. However, I think Philly is going to be really popular next week because a) the Cardinals suck, b) not many survivors have picked the Eagles (some people picked them in Weeks 2-6, but they're no longer with us), and c) the other really obvious pick next week is the Packers, and a LOT of people have used them.

So can't be positive, but I don't think I'll end up needing the Eagles next week. In W17 though, they host Washington. The last week of the season is normally a mess, with some wacky spreads because the game doesn't matter much (if at all) for some of the elite teams. But it doesn't seem like Philly will be in that boat in W17, since they're currently two games behind the Giants, and tied with the Cowboys; that game will likely matter quite a bit for the Eagles.

In the end, I think Dallas' W12 value outweighs Philly's W10+W17 value, so this week's pick is Philadelphia.

2011 NFL Survivor: Week 8

2011-10-23T23:09:00.008-04:00

Last week:

DAL: W, 34-7
NO: W, 62-7
BAL: L, 12-7
GB: W, 33-27

Ponder was so close, but 87.3% of OFP ended up advancing to Week 8.

Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans.

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

Baltimore (vs. Arizona)

The Ravens are the biggest favorite available to me this week, but I'd rather not use them unless absolutely necessary. Baltimore isn't absurdly popular, but they are the most frequently selected team, and they continue to have a lot of future value, with home games against the Colts and Browns in the last quarter of the season.

San Francisco (vs. Cleveland)

Not a big fan of the 49ers this week, as they're the second most popular team but only the sixth most likely to actually win.

NY Giants (vs. Miami)

The Giants are about as popular as SF, but are ~82% to win, as opposed to ~79%. New York's remaining home games are against PHI, GB, WAS, and DAL, so there's not a ton of value there.

New Orleans (at St. Louis)

Big road favorites, but I burned them last week. Strong option otherwise.

Tennessee (vs. Indianapolis)

A team that lost by 34 at home last week; now we're talking. Tennessee is very comparable to the Giants for this week after considering the probability/popularity tradeoff; they're a bit less likely to win, but a lot less popular. The Titans are also not an especially good team (only a significant favorite this week because their opponent is truly atrocious), which is a plus from a future value standpoint.

Houston (vs. Jacksonville)

Already used.

Considering all that, I'm going with the Titans this week.

2011 NFL Survivor: Week 7

2011-10-19T10:37:00.006-04:00

Last week:

GB: W, 24-3
NYJ: W, 24-6
PIT: W, 17-13
OAK: W, 24-17
CIN: W, 27-17
BAL: W, 29-14

Not a very productive week for whittling down the field, with 97.1% of OFP entries advancing. Solid week overall though, since most people used a team with more future value than Cincinnati (or Oakland).

Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati.

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

Dallas (vs. St. Louis)

The Cowboys are this week's second biggest favorite, but easily the most popular survivor selection. I think the main reason for this is that very few people used Dallas in the first six weeks of the season, whereas a lot of people have already burned the biggest favorite (see below). Regardless, it doesn't make them a very attractive option. They do have some future value left with home games against Seattle and Miami, but not all that much.

New Orleans (vs. Indianapolis)

I hate picking a team that's so popular, but it seems like the Saints are the way to go this week. They are huge favorites, which in itself is only somewhat convincing. But they're clearly a better option than the second biggest favorite, and there's a big dropoff in probability after that. New Orleans does have some seemingly straightforward home games toward the end of the season, but I think giving those up is a sacrifice worth making.

Baltimore (at Jacksonville)

The Ravens are only favored by 7.5 this week, are decently popular, and have a ton of future value remaining, with home games against Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Cleveland.

Green Bay (at Minnesota)

The Packers are slightly bigger favorites than Baltimore, but are still way behind New Orleans, and are obviously worth keeping around for Week 8 and beyond.

Nobody else is favored by more than 4, so this week's pick is the Saints.

2011 NFL Survivor: Week 6

2011-10-11T13:22:00.006-04:00

Last week:

NYG: L, 36-25
NO: W, 30-27
NE: W, 30-21
HOU: L, 25-20
SD: W, 29-24
DET: W, 24-13
GB: W, 25-14
PIT: W, 38-17

Not that tricky.

The loss of a team picked by about two-thirds of the remaining entrants has a few implications, including:

All the remaining entries have one thing in common: they didn't pick the Giants last week. That's an obvious statement of course, but the fact that all the people who had the most obvious pick last week were eliminated will certainly affect the weekly consensus numbers going forward.
I have heard from multiple people who were in smaller pools, which are now down to under 10 people. Week 17 future value should always be discounted to an extent over, say, Week 7 future value, but that is especially true if your pool is down to only a few people.
EV has increased so now I will be even more upset when I lose.

Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England.

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

Green Bay (vs. St. Louis)

Once again, the biggest favorite is the most popular Survivor selection. But this situation is a lot different than last week, as the Packers are favored by 14, and are way less popular than the Giants were last week. The downside here is that you're giving up a ton of future value by using Green Bay, as they should be a solid option pretty much every time they're at home the rest of the season.

NY Jets (vs. Miami)

Very popular and only favored by a TD, no thanks.

Pittsburgh (vs. Jacksonville)

Already used. Would actually be a pretty good option otherwise, as they are the second biggest favorite, only third most popular, and have some future value toward the end of the season but not a ton.

Oakland (vs. Cleveland)

Not bad but an inferior option to the team directly below in every way.

Cincinnati (vs. Indianapolis)

The Bengals are only favored by half as much as Green Bay, but they make up a lot of ground in the other two criteria. Cincinnati is only being selected on about 1 in 20 entries, and they have no future value to speak of.

Baltimore (vs. Houston)

Only slightly more likely to win this week than the Bengals, and with a ton more future value.

This is a week where I think it really depends on the number of people left in your pool. If it's a relatively low number, I think the Packers are the pick under these circumstances, although keep in mind that your competitors are probably thinking similarly, which might skew the consensus #s.

In a larger pool though -- which is what I'm trying to maximize with these posts -- I went back and forth a few times on this. In the end, I'm going with Cincinnati because of Green Bay's value in future weeks, and particularly in Week 14.

On the second weekend in December, it currently looks like the Packers (home vs. Oakland) will be much bigger favorites than any other team, and it will be tough for them to be too popular, since most will have already used them. So for that reason, the Bengals are this week's pick.

2011 NFL Survivor: Week 5

2011-10-06T10:41:00.005-04:00

Last week:

GB: W, 49-23
TB: W, 24-17
NO: W, 23-10
CHI: W, 34-29
BUF: L, 23-20
ATL: W, 30-28
SD: W, 26-16
PHI: L, 24-23

Blog picks have been doing well, but: flip the Eagles. 90.3% of OFP contestants advanced last week.

Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay.

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

NY Giants (vs. Seattle)

This is a pretty weird week, as the Giants are ridiculously popular, even though they're only favored by 9.5. This is happening because they are by far the most obvious pick, even though they're only slightly more likely to win than New England. Either way, the Giants are not a viable selection here.

New Orleans (at Carolina)

Normally the second most popular team, on the road, only favored by 6.5 wouldn't be a great option, but again this week is strange. The Saints are a decent pick, but don't really stand out in any way.

New England (vs. NY Jets)

Initially, the Pats are the best choice this week, as they're favored by nearly as much as the Giants, but not even close to being as popular. The big negative comes into play when you consider their enormous future value, with home games against Kansas City, Indy, Miami, and Buffalo.

Houston (vs. Oakland)

Already picked.

San Diego (at Denver)

Way less likely to win than New Orleans, with a similar amount of future value.

Detroit (vs. Chicago)

Already picked.

Green Bay (at Atlanta)

Similar to New Orleans but with a lot more future value.

Pittsburgh (vs. Tennessee)

Already picked.

Nobody else is favored by more than a field goal (it really is an odd week). So it comes down to New England and New Orleans. Tough to look that far ahead, but it looks like there will be some other reasonable options in the weeks that the Pats are going to be a huge favorite, so I'm going to use New England this week.

2011 NFL Survivor: Week 4

2011-09-29T09:47:00.010-04:00

Last week:

SD: W, 20-17
PIT: W, 23-20
NE: L, 34-31
TEN: W, 17-14
PHI: L, 29-16

It was almost a ridiculous week for eliminations, with none of the five teams above winning by more than a field goal. In the end though, the two most popular teams advanced and 87% of OFP entries moved on to Week 4.

Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh.

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

Green Bay (vs. Denver)

Eventually, one of these big favorites will lose, 40-50% of the field will get knocked out, and it'll be glorious. Maybe this week?

Tampa Bay (vs. Indianapolis)

The Bucs are a bit more popular than I'd prefer, but otherwise they're an excellent option, at ~83% to win. Tampa hosts the Panthers in Week 13, but doesn't have much future value otherwise.

New Orleans (at Jacksonville)

The Saints are only favored by 6.5, and still host the Colts and Panthers later in the season. Week 17 is always weird so that Carolina game may not end up being a great option, but I'd still rather take Tampa this week.

Chicago (vs. Carolina)

The Bears don't have a ton of future value, but that's mostly because they're not very good, which contributes to only being favored by 6 at home against the Panthers.

Buffalo (at Cincinnati)
Atlanta (at Seattle)

Not favored by enough.

San Diego (vs. Miami)

Only favored by seven and have a pretty solid amount of future value.

Phiadelphia (vs. San Francisco)

For the second straight week the Eagles are an interesting option, as they the third biggest favorites on the board but have been quite overlooked in survivor pools. The Bucs are more likely to win, but Philly's lack of popularity makes up for that.

Moving on to the third main factor, I'd rather have the Eagles as an option in the future, so Tampa Bay is the pick this week.

2011 NFL Survivor: Week 3

2011-09-20T12:03:00.003-04:00

Last week:

PIT: W, 24-0
NYJ: W, 32-3
GB: W, 30-23
DET: W, 48-3

A few unfortunate folks had the Ravens, but not much of a week for eliminations, as about 95% of OFP entries advanced.

Teams used: Houston, Detroit.

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

San Diego (vs. Kansas City)

The Chargers are extremely likely (~88%) to win this week; unfortunately everybody knows this, and it is reflected in their popularity. That doesn't rule them out entirely, as you can find something wrong with pretty much every team this week, but it's definitely a big drawback. San Diego has a significant amount of future value, with home games against the Raiders, Broncos, and Bills.

Pittsburgh (at Indianapolis)

Road teams are generally to be avoided, but the location of the game is obviously factored into the spread, which has the Steelers as the second most likely team to win this week, and by a fairly large margin. They're also behind only San Diego in popularity, but 15% really isn't too bad. Home games against the Jaguars and Bengals give the Steelers a similar amount of future value as SD, but I like PIT better mostly because they're so much less popular.

New England (at Buffalo)

I don't really like the Patriots this week, as they are only ~77% to win and have home games remaining against at least one horrendous team (KC), and possibly two (IND, if Manning isn't back by Week 13). Next.

Tennessee (vs. Denver)

The Titans were the team that jumped out to me at first when I looked through this week's options, but they've since been bet down to -6.5. They certainly don't have much future value, but you're giving up a ton of value this week by taking Tennessee rather than Pittsburgh.

Carolina (vs. Jacksonville)

Baltimore (at St. Louis)

Detroit (at Minnesota)

Arizona (at Seattle)

None of these teams are favored by more than four, so while there are some interesting aspects here (not going to have a chance to pick Carolina again!), I don't think they're good enough.

Philadelphia (vs. NY Giants)

A strange one, but I think it's worth a look. This line was OTB for most of the week, but it sounds like Vick is going to play, and the Giants are all banged up themselves, so the Eagles have been installed as a 7.5-point favorite. That puts them right with the Pats at #3 for win probability in Week 3, and I'd rather use Philly than NE since the Eagles are less popular and probably have less future value.

That just leaves the Eagles and Steelers. It's close, but I think their win probability and the uncertainty surrounding Vick make Pittsburgh a more attractive option, so the Steelers are the pick this week.

2011 NFL Survivor: Week 2

2011-09-13T23:34:00.006-04:00

Last week:

KC: L, 41-7
NE: W, 38-24
ARI: W, 28-21
CLE: L, 27-17
SD: W, 24-17
PHI: W, 31-13
HOU: W, 34-7

We lost 29% of the entries in OFP, and it could have been a lot worse, as the Cardinals and Chargers both trailed late.

Teams used: Houston.

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

Pittsburgh (vs. Seattle)

Fairly standard spot here: Biggest favorite of the week, overwhelmingly popular, and lots of future value (home against IND, TEN, JAX, CIN, CLE, STL). The viability of these is always dependent on the week's other options, so we'll come back to this one.

NY Jets (vs. Jacksonville)

New York has the same pluses and minuses as Pittsburgh, only less extreme (please don't take that out of context?). They don't have as much future value as I would have expected, and I think that difference makes them a slightly better option than PIT, although it's very close.

Green Bay (at Carolina)

The Packers, favored by 9.5, are unusually strong for a road team. The main drawback here is that they have a lot of future value, but all things considered they're pretty similar to PIT and NYJ. I don't want to break this tie, but luckily I don't think I'm going to have to.

Detroit (vs. Kansas City)

Here we go. The Lions are favored by 7.5, which isn't a huge number but will work for our purposes, as they're not all that popular and don't look to have much future value, save for a home game against the Panthers in Week 11. Detroit is a bit worse than the first three options in terms of their popularity/win probability combo, but it's close, and I think their lack of value in weeks 3-17 jumps them ahead of PIT, NYJ and GB.

Nobody else is favored by more than seven this week, and it'd be almost impossible to be a better option than the Lions without crossing over that number, so this week's pick is Detroit.

2011 NFL Survivor: Week 1

2011-09-06T20:51:00.005-04:00

We're back! Obviously have not been doing too much blogging recently, but after last year's dominant performance (3-3), demand for this series was so high that I just couldn't say no.

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

Kansas City (vs. Buffalo)

The Chiefs, favored by 6 on Sunday, are this week's most popular team, but aren't exactly running away with it. The most appealing thing about Kansas City is their lack of future value (home games against Minnesota and Denver...but they're the Chiefs), but it's tough to get too excited about this option one way or the other.

New England (at Miami)

Not much to like here beyond the spread (NE -7). The Pats are a fairly trendy selection, and obviously have a good bit of future value, with home games against the Chiefs, Dolphins, and Bills, as well as some away games where they could be a strong option. It's almost never going to be a good idea to take a team on the road against a divisional opponent in Week 1 (if only for the future value aspect), and this is no exception.

Arizona (vs. Carolina)

Looks like the Panthers are going to play a starring role in these posts this season. Arizona is favored by 7 in this one, which is nothing to write home about but becomes interesting after considering their complete lack of future value. Best option thus far.

Cleveland (vs. Cincinnati)

The Browns are a similar option to the one directly above, although not favored by quite as much (-6, and that's an important point). Cleveland also appears to have a bit more future value (home vs. Seattle?), so I think the Browns are a solid option but inferior to Arizona.

San Diego (vs. Minnesota)

San Diego is a bit more likely to win than Arizona (77.7% vs. 74.5%), but I don't think that's worth all the future value you'd give up by using the Chargers here. They have a fairly absurd home schedule, including games against the Chiefs, Dolphins, Raiders, Broncos, and Bills, so plenty of incentive to go with someone else this week.

Philadelphia (at St. Louis)

Eagles are only favored by 4.5, and have plenty of future value. Can't burn the Dream Team in Week 1 anyway.

Houston (vs. Indianapolis)

So this is interesting. For reasons I trust everyone is aware of, the Texans are more likely to win this game than they traditionally would be, and are actually the biggest favorite on the board as of now (barely edging out San Diego). They do have a bit of future value (home vs. Carolina in Week 15), but not nearly as much as the Chargers. A decent number (about 1 in 10) of people are taking Houston in OFP, but that only makes them the sixth most popular team this week.

Given those factors, I think Houston is the pick this week. The only caveat I would add is that, as this is a fairly unique situation (with one player affecting the spread to such a degree), it's possible that as the week goes on the Texans become much more popular or the line on this game regresses, which would obviously change the equation. But that seems unlikely, so I'm going with the Texans in Week 1.

Guessing the Seeds 2011: Final Standings

2011-04-10T09:20:00.007-04:00

Here's the final top 10:

The round-by-round scores are before applying the 100%/75%/50%/25% weighting, so that's why they don't add up to the total score.

Congratulations to this year's winner, MXS, who beat the odds and was solid throughout. He was actually not one of the people who got all four #1 seeds right in each round (that'd be Audacity of Hoops and Matt P.), but made up for that on the other lines. Particularly impressive was nailing three of the #4 seeds in round two, which is tough to do.

As you can probably guess from their consistent scoring, Charley M. and Matt P. only submitted an entry for round 1, which carried over for the rest of their contest, so their top 10 finishes are particularly impressive.

Here's how many of the 29 round 4 entries correctly predicted each team's seed:

Impressively (I guess?), Orange Krushin had both Florida as a 2 and Texas as a 4. Not surprisingly, he was also the round 4 leader, with 65 out of a possible 72 points.

The full standings are here. Thanks to everyone who entered, and we'll do this again next year.

(Also, "Timbo Slice's Picks" won our Yahoo! group, so if you are him, please email me.)

2011 Tourney: Title Game Live Chat

2011-04-04T19:56:00.000-04:00

&amp;amp;amp;lt;a href="http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=f41485ec2d" &amp;amp;amp;gt;2011 Tourney: Title Game Live Chat&amp;amp;amp;lt;/a&amp;amp;amp;gt;