Venezuela Blogs

The Hallaca Rant

Caracas Chronicles — Thu, 23 Dec 2021 19:42:50 GMT

As with everything else, Venezuelan Christmas is deeply charged with national symbolism and pride. Not without reason, we take our traditions wherever we go and make big efforts to make sure they’re passed on to our kids. There are 6 million+ migrants trying to recreate what they had back home, and it’s amazing to see how they’re starting to impact their surroundings with Venezuelan culture. However, these traditions also suffer and inevitably get mixed with others as we adapt to our new homes.

The original subject of this episode was about migrant culture, but this discussion took a dark turn and has some strong opinions on hallacas, gaitas, the Elf, raisins and olives in the pan de jamón, and the long-standing debate on who brings the presents: Santa or Baby Jesus?

In the end, holidays are what you make of them and everyone has their own traditions

Enjoy:

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The post The Hallaca Rant appeared first on Caracas Chronicles.

Santa recorta costos cambiando a los elfos por freelancer venezolano

Neisser Banout — Thu, 23 Dec 2021 12:40:00 GMT

A menos de que tengas permiso para conducir una 4Runner o trineo sin placa, la pandemia ha sido un duro golpe al bolsillo para todos, incluyendo a Santa Claus, quien en 2020 detuvo la producción de regalos por completo, aún cuando tenía que seguir cubriendo todas las comidas de sus e̶s̶c̶l̶a̶v̶o̶s̶ elfos. Por eso en 2021, Santa decidió despedirlos a todos y contratar freelancers venezolanos para abaratar sus costos.

Desde su fábrica en Tocuyito, Polo Norte, el señor Claus ofreció más detalles sobre su decisión: “Despedir a mis escl–elfos fue difícil, casi tanto como decidir de qué lado llevan sus koalas los muñecos de escoltas para niños enchufados, pero sé que fue lo correcto para el negocio. Yo pensaba que todo estaba perdido, que los niños se quedarían sin regalos para siempre, hasta que un día visitando páginas de freelancers como Fiverr, Upwork y OnlyFans2 me encontré con perfiles venezolanos y dije ‘¡Qué jojojojoto!’. Sí, el otro gordo vestido de rojo que también se llama Nicolás es malvado, pero hay que admitir que ha hecho mucho por nosotros los empresarios internacionales. ¡Gracias a su gestión puedo contratar un diseñador-programador-escultor-carpintero-chef-pediatra por solo $10 y media botella de canelita al mes! ¡Puedo emplear millones!”, expresaba Santa emocionado por salvar la Navidad sin darse cuenta de que los freelancers sin fibra óptica recibirán su mensaje de contratación en marzo de 2023.

Oficina pasivo-agresiva juega al “compañero de trabajo” secreto

Neisser Banout — Thu, 23 Dec 2021 12:30:00 GMT

A pesar de que es jueves 23 de diciembre y la mayoría de las oficinas tienen el día libre, los empleados de la firma Inversiones Ahora Sin Bancarrota 2021 se vieron obligados a asistir a su sede principal en La Victoria para jugar al “compañero de trabajo secreto” si querían cobrar sus $7 dólares de aguinaldos.

Jessica Alba, encargada de comunicaciones internas, es decir, la administradora del grupo de Whatsapp, ofreció detalles sobre cómo ocurrió el intercambio: “Fue una cagada. Una descomunal cagada que ni el más finísimo vino de cartón pudo solucionar. Todo el mundo compró una Nutella pequeña porque pa’ más no dábamos y lo que hicimos fue cambiar las Nutellas de manos. Al final me voy como vine: con una Nutella que no quería y un novio de Mercadeo que mucho menos”, confesó Alba, partida en llanto sobre la Canaimita de su cubículo.

Por su parte, Gladymar Carias, gerente de Recursos Humanos y ávida fanática de poner Romeo Santos a todo volumen en mitad de la oficina, explicó las razones detrás del evento: “Sé que parece como que nadie quiso venir, pero el patrón —así pide que lo llamemos— y yo pensamos que sería una excelente forma de que todos en la oficina finalmente se conocieran. ¿Y qué mejor forma de hacerlo que en un compartir dónde los de administración estaban obliga… motivados a traer pan de mortadela; los de comunicaciones, pasta seca de guayaba, y los de recursos humanos trajimos las mejores vibras? Claro, nosotros comprendemos que la situación está difícil y por eso pusimos el límite del regalo en $5 dólares para que sobrase del bono”, aseguró Carias segundos antes de que se le rompiese el collar de talismán por todo el mal de ojo estaba recibiendo.

How Vicente Emilio Sojo Rescued ‘Niño Lindo’

Guillermo Ramos Flamerich — Thu, 23 Dec 2021 12:21:21 GMT

This post is for you, the person who decorated the tree and set up a Nativity scene this month, put up Christmas decorations with your family around the house—together or in the distance—and may be helping the youngest one in the house to play the first chords to “Niño Lindo”. You know this season tastes like hallacas and you’ve noticed that it has a unique sound. This story, of how many of the Venezuelan aguinaldos were almost lost, is for you.

They were saved by the commitment of a master and his disciples in the first decades of the 20th century.

When I think of Vicente Emilio Sojo’s death, the first thing I recall is how my grandmother Dilia idolized him. That’s why, from a very young age, I knew of this almost mythical figure, his walrus mustache and his gaze lost in focus. That’s how Reinaldo Colmenares drew him, a neighbor and painter to whom my grandmother had commissioned portraits of my grandfather Víctor Guillermo, his brother Pedro Antonio Ramos and Maestro Sojo, this one of course between the other two, like he was an important member of the family. In the family library, I found a few books on his work and even a comic book about his life. He was in our family albums, too. I knew he was a musician, but his importance would be revealed little by little as I became more interested in my Venezuelan identity.

Vicente Emilio Sojo was born on December 8th, 1887, in Guatire. This place, known for the Parranda de San Pedro and its “cider chutney”, has been the cradle of poets, politicians and two characters who are key to understanding the country’s musical history. The first one was Pedro Palacios y Sojo, better known as Father Sojo, a priest who in the mid-1780 founded the Escuela de Chacao, where an entire generation of musicians experienced the end of colonial times and the birth of the Republic. The other Sojo, Vicente Emilio—although not related—embraced the triple task of safekeeping our heritage, bringing up a new generation of musicians, and modernizing Venezuelan academic music.

Maestro Sojo was brought up within a family of musicians. His grandfather, Domingo Castro was a soldier in the Federal War and wrote the song that said “¡Oligarcas temblad, viva la libertad!” (Tremble, oligarchs, long live freedom!), so heavily trampled in the last decades. Before he turned nineteen, Vicente Emilio left for Caracas to continue his studies at the Escuela de Música y Declamación.

The ***Aguinaldo*: Between the Divine and the Profane**

In December 1999, my father received a call from my grandmother asking him to go with her to the Vicente Emilio Sojo Foundation. They had just released the album Aguinaldos venezolanos del siglo XIX, a compilation of 28 songs recorded by the Lamas Orpheum under the direction of Maestro Sojo. I was able to listen to it with her, my father, and my uncles a few days later, songs I had listened to at school, on television. So I asked her, what’s so special about this record? My grandmother sat next to me, we opened the booklet that came inside the case and she began reading it to me. In a brief essay, musicologist Felipe Sangiorgi told us about how the traditional Venezuelan aguinaldo had its origins in Spanish Christmas carols, but took on unique patterns in the 19th century.

Aguinaldos took elements from dance and contradanza; they then bred with the rhythm scheme of merengue and guasa, integrating popular instruments. You can divide them in two groups: the divine, like “Cantemos alegres”, “Nació el redentor”, and “Espléndida noche”; and the profane or parranda, like “Si acaso algún vecino”, “Tuntún”, and “Parranda”.

The rise of the Venezuelan aguinaldo began in the last decades of the 19th century, thanks to compositions by Ricardo Pérez, Rogerio Caraballo, Ramón Montero, and Rafael Izaza. Although the authors of songs that would become as popular as “Niño Lindo” or “La Jornada” (Din, din, din, es hora de partir…) still remain unknown. Because, just like they had their heyday at parties in December, where bands would gather to play in squares and churches of our tiny villages, aguinaldos seemed to be out of place in the ever changing Venezuela of the 20th century. While the country was taking steps towards a desired modernization, on the other hand, its rural past was being disregarded.

In 1928, the excitement caused by the visit of a Cossack choir took Vicente Emilio Sojo, along with Juan Bautista Plaza, the Calcaño brothers and Moisés Moleiro, to create the Lamas Orpheum. In 1930, they had their first official concert at the same time they were founding the Venezuelan Symphonic Orchestra. In the first stage, they focused on playing musical pieces from the universal classical repertoire and some original compositions. By then, Sojo had already written songs like “Himno a Bolívar” (1911), the “Misa cromática” (1923), and “Palabras de Cristo en el Calvario” (1925), to name some of his most remarkable works. At the Escuela Superior de Música, he mentored the generation that produced works like La Cantata Criolla, by Antonio Estévez; Margariteña, by Inocente Carreño; and Santa Cruz de Pacairigua, by Evencio Castellanos. Musicians like Blanca Estrella de Méscoli, Antonio Lauro, Ángel Sauce, Gonzalo Castellanos, Teo Capriles, Víctor Guillermo Ramos, Rhazes Hernández López, and Pedro Antonio Ríos Reyna trained in the manor next to Santa Capilla. These musicians were part of the so-called “Escuela Nacionalista” (Nationalist School) in Venezuelan academic music.

How ‘Niño Lindo’ Was Rescued

It would become a bridge between tradition and modern times, but maybe Sojo didn’t have that in mind in 1937 when, along with his disciples, he compiled, transcribed, and harmonized popular Venezuelan songs from the 19th and early 20th century. With this labor, he saved around two hundred songs. Fifty of them were part of the aguinaldo repertoire. The mission was to keep them as close as possible to the authors’ original idea and to how they were played in their time. For this he leaned on his student Evencio Castellanos, who would point out details on the piano.

On December 24th, 1938, Sojo performed the first concert dedicated to the Venezuelan aguinaldos with the Lamas Orpheum. For two decades, three annual performances became a tradition: on December 20th at the Escuela Superior de Música, the other two at the Basílica de Santa Teresa on December 25th and January 1st. They also did special concerts outside of the capital.

After almost a decade of field work and revision of the manuscripts, Sojo published the first booklet of Aguinaldos populares y venezolanos para la Noche Buena (1945), with pieces collected in San Pedro de los Altos. The following year, a second booklet came out and the songs became hits, being played by new bands and solo artists, no longer forgotten and turning into a mainstay in the Venezuelan Christmas. This is why Cuban writer Alejo Carpentier said in 1951: “How lucky it is, for Venezuela, to keep a tradition that comes from so long ago, and having musicians who took it upon themselves to write down, harmonize, edit, what would’ve been lost by the weakening of oral tradition, as it irrevocably has in other countries.”

Going through photos in the booklet with my grandmother, we saw one that showed the entire Orpheum. You could see a young woman who resembled her in the second row. As it turns out, it was her. My grandmother Dilia was a member of the Lamas Orpheum for a short time, and it was there where she met my grandfather Víctor Guillermo. Maestro Sojo was the best man at their wedding. They always felt huge appreciation and devotion to him. Vicente Emilio Sojo, the double artist of music and living with dignity—as he was defined by Ramón J. Velásquez—had reached old age when he traveled to Europe for the first time, and in 1958 he was elected senator of the new democracy. He died at 86 years old, on August 11th, 1974. If what we heard in those songs as children is true, he probably spent that December dining in Heaven, invited by the Niño Lindo as a thank you for safekeeping the sounds of Christmas.

The post How Vicente Emilio Sojo Rescued ‘Niño Lindo’ appeared first on Caracas Chronicles.

Jugadores de softbol compran cerveza artesanal por error y juego termina en civilizada charla filosófica

Edgar Albarrán — Wed, 22 Dec 2021 19:12:54 GMT

Como es su costumbre, un grupo de jugadores de softbol decidieron, para calentar, tomarse unas birras antes de un partido amistoso. Lo que ellos sin embargo no sabían es que las birras eran cervezas artesanales de Social Club; por eso lo que pudo terminar como un partido reñido y complicado, terminó en una hermosa y civilizada charla filosófica.

“Te voy a decir algo: me supieron engañar. La cerveza artesanal no es lo mío, papá, pero esta se llevó mi corazón y me hizo entrar en un proceso de introspección que no te lo logra cualquier cerveza. Fue como si se me abriera la mente. De repente entendí un montón de cosas que tenían rato dándome vuelta en la cabeza. Fue increíble”, aseguró Richard Villalobos, también conocido como “Richard”, catcher y cuarto bate de Los Panas BBC. Mientras abría con el codo su sexta cerveza, Richard agregó: “Tengo ganas de conquistar el mundo, sacar un libro que se llame ‘Los Beneficios del Softbol en la vida cotidiana’, de verdad que entré en un proceso creativo hermoso. Amo esta cerveza artesanal, amo estar vivo y compartir oxígeno con toda la gente que me rodea. Amo poder decir que amo las cosas. La vida es lo mejor”, finalizó Villalobos, mientras se sentaba en el dugout a reflexionar sobre la inmanencia de las cosas.

Chamo que pide delivery todos los días le da una copia de las llaves al repartidor

Edgar Albarrán — Wed, 22 Dec 2021 19:11:21 GMT

El joven Daniel Monsalve se dejó de rodeos y aceptó que es un adicto a los servicios de delivery de Pedidos Ya. Para hacerse la vida más sencilla, Monsalve decidió darle una copia de sus llaves al repartidor, para que cada vez que le lleve un pedido, se sienta como en casa.

“No solamente me traen la comida super rápido, Pedidos Ya también llenó ese vacío que dejó mi mejor amigo cuando emigró, este pana que me trae el delivery ya es como mi hermano. ¡Javi! Lo veo a diario. Le conozco todos los cuentos”, comentó Monsalve, que mientras le enseñaba al repartidor la maña que tiene la puerta principal para abrir, agregó: “Sí, soy un adicto, lo reconozco. A veces me meto a la aplicación solo para ver, puedo estar en una cita comiendo, en el cine, o en el baño, pero siempre la reviso porque se siente como revisar la nevera cada 3 minutos cuando estás solo en tu casa. ¿Que si tengo un problema? Puede ser, puede ser. ¿Que voy a dejar de pedir delivery? ¡Eso jamás!”, finalizó Monsalve mientras le preguntaba al repartidor si quería pasar las navidades con él.

Familia caraqueña se descuida y le montan un puesto de hamburguesas en el pesebre

Neisser Banout — Wed, 22 Dec 2021 12:30:00 GMT

La familia Torres, quienes toda su vida han residido en Las Palmas, Caracas, fueron otras víctimas más de la hamburguesificación de la capital, quienes tras pasar la tarde decorando su sala con un hermoso pesebre que vale más que el apartamento, fueron a servirse un ponche crema en la cocina y al volver ya les habían montado un local llamado Burgers 416 Express Grill & Bistro al lado del Virgen.

El dueño del local, Juan Vera, ofreció declaraciones al respecto: “En Venezuela todavía se hace billete, papi, solo se necesita originalidad, como yo que monté mi puestico de burgers en una ciudad donde solo hay 5 hamburgueserías por cuadra. Además, todos los pesebres caraqueños deberían tener ese toque citadino que nos caracteriza, ¿y qué más caraqueño que un puesto de hamburguesas? Sí, un periquero, pero no lo vamos a poner ahí para no irrespetar. De paso, somos el único local de todo el país que acepta oro, incienso y banesco panamá como métodos de pago, nadie nos puede decir que no somos la nueva propuesta gastronómica innovadora de la capital” Concluyó el señor Vera antes de inaugurar un bodegón entre la mula y el buey.

Este maestro parrillero se portó mal todo el año para recibir carbón en Navidad

Neisser Banout — Wed, 22 Dec 2021 12:15:00 GMT

Diciembre es época de estrenos, de bebedera y de fingir que te cae bien tu tío, pero sobre todo, es época de parrillas. Y nadie sabe esto mejor que Ignacio Casas, un maestro parrillero que se portó mal a propósito durante todo el año solo para recibir carbón en Navidad.

Casas, con su ropa manchada y un olor entre cerveza vieja y ceja ahumada, nos aclaró por qué tomó esta actitud durante todo el 2021: “Mano, yo siempre he sido el que tal: el que maneja sincrónico, el que le cae a tu jeva, el que prende una parrilla usando la hojilla de la afeitadora. Y más que eso, soy un hombre de carne, como diría la amante de mi apá, que en paz descanse. Pero recuerdo el diciembre pasado, un día desperté de la resaca de mi doceava parrilla y vi por primera vez la factura del carbón. ¡$25 DÓLARES POR PARRILLA! Casi me da es un yeyo como diría mi amá, que en paz descanse. Yo no toy pa’ esa, la masa no está pa’ bollos, como decía mi tío, que en paz descanse, él que toda la vida lo que hizo fue descansar. Pero bueno, tú sabes cómo soy yo, echao’ pa’ lante, no puedo dejar de ser el director del fogón y alfarero de la carne. Los del softbol cuentan conmigo. ‘Tonces decidí hacer cositas malas, como diría mi amante, que en paz… mentira, mentira, esa anda por ahí jodiendo. ¡Que mi Dios le dé larga vida! Pero sí, lo reconozco, me porté mal. Por un año corrí con tijeras, estacioné montado entre dos puestos, le quité el pañal a los ancianos, hasta dejé de pedir la bendición a mi tía y lo logré. Santa me trajo el carbón y yo me ahorré una buena platica” contó Casas, quien de igual forma gastó todo ese dinero en anís.

Sobornando a Rudolph con el equivalente a tres años de su sobresueldo, nuestro pasante intentó conversar con Santa para preguntarle por qué estaba pendiente del comportamiento de los adultos; sin embargo, Santa se rehusó a dar respuesta, mientras se montaba en un taxi a las afueras de un estudio de tatuajes.

Niño le pide a Santa que sus papás sean enchufados

Neisser Banout — Tue, 21 Dec 2021 12:30:00 GMT

Cansado de ser el único de sus compañeros que no merienda obleas con caviar, ni viste de lujosas chemises Gucci para asistir a clases, el niño Cesar Ortiz, de 11 años, le escribió una sentida carta a Santa Claus pidiéndole que sus papás se dignen a enchufarse de una vez por todas.

Enviamos a nuestro pasante subpagado a la urbanización “Los Mangos Verdes” de Maracay para que recogiera las declaraciones de Ortíz: “Chamo yo no soy bruto, yo sé que Santa Claus no existe, es como el clítoris pues. La verdad es que yo escribí eso en la carta como pa’ mandarles una indirecta a mi papás, o sea, ellos trabajan en un ministerio ahí de no sé qué cosa popular y no se roban pero ni una Canaimita. De pana es que ya estoy cansado de ser el pelabolas del salón, el otro día no me dejaron jugar futbolito con ellos porque era el único sin tacos Louis Vuotton y ayer me cayeron a lepes porque confesé que mis papás no tenían testaferros” concluyó el joven César mientras le escribía una carta al niño Jesús también.

Maestra crea futuro supervillano al asignarle papel de mula a niño en el acto de Navidad

Neisser Banout — Tue, 21 Dec 2021 12:15:00 GMT

El pesebre viviente del 4to. grado B de la Unidad Educativa Las Acasias —sí, con “s”— terminó de manera abrupta esta mañana, luego de que el pequeño actor que interpretaba a la Mula, el niño Miguel Díaz de 9 años de edad, saliera molesto del escenario, jurando venganza en contra de la maestra que le dio el papel. Esa misma noche, en la tranquilidad de su hogar, Miguelito se abrió una cuenta de Instagram bajo el pseudónimo de “La Mula Rebelde» donde detalló con más profundidad sus malévolos planes de convertirse en un supervillano que no descansará hasta hacerle pagar a la sociedad la humillación que le causara su profesora.

Al día siguiente fuimos al colegio Las Acasias para conversar con la mismísima profesora —y futura víctima de la Mula Rebelde— Ana Cristina Medina, quien nos contó su versión de los hechos mientras esquivaba unos taquitos ensalivados que no pudimos descifrar de dónde venían. “Cada niño del salón recibió el papel que merecía. María la interpretó la mejor de la clase, el papel de José se lo di al más responsable, el de las ovejas se los dimos a los morochos Valladares que parece que no se hubieran cortado el pelo desde que arrancó la pandemia y el de Baltasar le tocó al niño que huele a mirra. Por otro lado, Miguelito ni se portó bien ni sacó buenas notas, así que le tocó ser la mula. Además, me parece que ese niño está exagerando porque mientras él armó un berrinche, el niño que hizo de buey se comió toda la grama que le di, yo creo que va a ser un actor de método” concluyó la maestra antes de ser interrumpida por el rebuznar de una mula y el impacto de un borrador en la frente.

Hallacanomics 2021

Marianela Palacios — Tue, 21 Dec 2021 10:00:28 GMT

People talk about two Venezuelas. Two entirely different social and economic realities sharing the same land. The rich one and the poor one. The malnourished and the obese. The civil and the barbarian. The Saudi and the North Korean.

From my point of view, after researching for this piece, there are more than two Venezuelas, spread along the spectrum of grays between the black and white politicians insist on making us see.

It’s easy to see those shades of gray in the economics of the hallaca, the most representative Venezuelan Christmas dish, as 2021 comes to an end. The star of the Christmas dinner will cost this year 1,000% more than it cost in bolivars in 2020, which is way more than the annual inflation just reported by the Central Bank at the end of November (769%), and the expected result of eight years in recession, four in hyperinflation, and an industry that’s 80% less productive than it was in 2013.

Of course, hallacas make me think of another Christmas without my kids, who left the country, and without many friends and family I miss. Out of almost 100 members of my extended family I used to see around Christmas two decades ago, 47 of them are dispersed in three continents. We never shared the same table again.

But I better wipe that tear and focus on the numbers.

One Dollar If It’s Homemade

If you buy the ingredients to make 50 hallacas, the bill could vary dramatically depending on the place. The range goes from 36 to 70 dollars, that is, every hallaca could cost you from 70 cents to one dollar and 40 cents.

You can pay up to 70 dollars at some supermarkets and bodegones in Caracas, such as Unicasa, Excelsior Gama, Plaza, Bicentenario, Central Madeirense or La Muralla; but you can buy the same things for less than 60 dollars at public markets like Quinta Crespo, Guaicaipuro, El Cementerio, or Chacao.

Among the ingredients we’re considering here (corn flour, olives, raisins, capers, leek, chicken, pork, beef, tomato, onion, green onion, garlic, sweet pepper, annatto, plantain leaves, oil, pickles, red pepper, white cooking twine… and no almonds) we can see important deviations. Plantain leaves can cost, per kilogram, from 2 to 3.50 dollars; olives from 2 to 5 dollars, beef from 3,5 to 9 dollars, and capers from 3 to 5,5 dollars.

We also found price variations in the full Christmas plate. In downtown Caracas, you can get a plate with one hallaca, pernil (pork roast), and chicken salad for 3 dollars. But not far from there, at a restaurant in La Candelaria, you could end up paying up to 20 dollars for the same trio.

At Pollos Hermanos Riviera, you’d pay 7 dollars per plate including hallaca, chicken salad, and pan de jamón, or 10 dollars if you want to add a piece of pernil. If you want to shoot for the sky, you can have your Christmas plate at Alto in Los Palos Grandes (35 dollars), La Castañuela in Las Mercedes (29 dollars), and Moreno in Altamira (28 dollars). That is about eleven times the price of the combo in downtown Caracas.

The middle range could be Casa Bermeo at La Candelaria or Dolce Vita in Altamira: 10 – 15 dollars.

Criolla With a Hint of Exotic Autocracies

Arturo Uslar Pietri wrote that the hallaca was a testimony of our melting pot: “the corn and plantain leaf of the Indians, the raisin, and olive of Romans and Greeks, the caper and almond from the Arabs, the beef of the captains from Castilla.”

That concept proposed by Uslar Pietri becomes even more real this year, with so many ingredients imported by Chavismo’s international allies—without tariffs or taxes—after Venezuelan production was quashed. Now the hallaca is not only built with local ingredients and products sourced from Spain, Italy, the US, and Portugal, but also from Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, and other Maduro-friendly places.

For instance, the third secretary of the Turkish Embassy in Venezuela, Hüseyin Özen, told the Anadolu news agency that the Venezuelan chocolate company Zisnella was importing olives and hazelnuts from Turkey at least since 2017.

The traditional corn or canola oil local brands such as Vatel, Mazeite, and Mary are competing not only with olive oil Gallo, Carbonell, Colavita, Olitalia, Wesson, and Kirkland, from Spain, Italy, and the US, but also with Ukraine’s Olyan or Argentina’s Kaldini. The same happens with the pickles produced by Nina: they have to compete with Eureka, Fragata, La Giralda, and Krinos, from Europe, and also with Turkey’s Sibas and Tukas.

Regarding flour, the main hallaca ingredient, here you can find corn flour and wheat flour from Latin America, the Middle East, and former Soviet republics, at the same price as the one produced in Venezuela, or cheaper. So we can’t rule out that some hallacas this year are using those brands instead of the typical marriage of Polar’s Harina Pan and annatto (onoto).

What About the Other Christmas Stuff?

The enduring tradition of setting up a Christmas tree in a tropical country is opening the gate of craziness. You can buy “Canadian pines” in downtown Caracas from 75 dollars to 500 dollars. But if you’re up for the full Bodegonia Christmas experience, you can get a designer-adorned pine for 3,500 dollars in East Caracas.

The best prices for the beloved pan de jamón (the rolled-up Christmas ham bread) usually can be found with families who sell their own artisanal creations from home, starting at 6 dollars for 35-cm, while at restaurants it could go up to 25 dollars.

Finally, if you want to say goodbye to 2021 by jumping on one foot and eating one grape with every bell toll at 12 o’clock, the kilogram of grapes goes from 3 dollars in the Catia or Quinta Crespo open market to 15 dollars in Baruta, El Hatillo, Libertador, and Chacao.

The post Hallacanomics 2021 appeared first on Caracas Chronicles.

The Perks of Being a Second-Generation Venezuelan

Martin Aguerrevere — Mon, 20 Dec 2021 12:30:10 GMT

The smell of saltwater in the air. The unbearable humidity in Florida. Puerto Rican music blasting in every shop and beachfront. I first moved to Florida from the Midwest when I was 11, and I hated it. It wasn’t just the fact I had lost all my friends by moving states, or that I was angry my family was moving across the country again, but it was also a culture shock.

Despite being a second-generation Venezuelan, I considered myself American, “but my family is from Venezuela,” I would say. Not me, I was born here. Living in Michigan and Tennessee before moving to Florida, I grew up around other Americans only. I loved cheeseburgers, Applebee’s, cold winters, and learning American history. I only spoke Spanish with my parents at home, my grasp on the language was bilingual but questionable. My knowledge of Latino culture was very poor, especially any slang kids my age might speak. However, I was still considered Latino by those around me, despite my best efforts to fit in.

Now imagine my plight when I moved to Weston, Florida: 52.2% Hispanic. For a second, I was pretty excited to be around other Latinos. I quickly discovered the limbo I was in. The majority of Latino kids my age had just moved from Latin America. For some, they had only been here for a few years, or even months. These Latinos laughed when I tried to speak Spanish with them. My pronunciation, grammar, and accent were all over the place. I barely understood a word they said, as I had been accustomed to the way my parents spoke. Not the almost constant slang these kids spoke. I didn’t listen to any Spanish music or watch soccer. So despite introducing myself as Venezuelan at first to connect with them, I quickly found out I really was American, “but my family is from Venezuela.”

Stuck in the Middle

As I went through middle school, I was constantly around people speaking Spanish. I also went to a Venezuelan summer camp. People say the best way to learn a language is to expose yourself to it as much as you can, and for me, it worked. My Spanish improved. I started liking some of the songs and artists. I even got a Venezuelan accent in Spanish from my years at camp, something I was very happy to hear when people commented on it. I don’t know when it happened, but at one point I stopped considering myself a gringo. However, so did the other American kids. For just a bit, I was stuck in the middle. I wasn’t as Latino as everyone else, but I wasn’t American.

At some point in high school, around sophomore year, I realized much of this dilemma was in my head. There were many other kids just like me, who grew up in the U.S. to Latin parents. I connected with them. I even started to speak better Spanish and know more of the culture than them, thanks to my summer camp. I wasn’t looking for validation anymore, I had found my own. I introduced myself as a second-generation Venezuelan. I connected fine with the more Latino kids.

Nowadays, my Spanish isn’t perfect but has massively improved. My music playlist is 147 Latin music songs, with only one or two English songs in there.

I find it sort of ironic. I came to Florida as an American and hated the place. But I love it here now. People used to ask me where I was from. “Michigan,” I would reply, maybe Tennessee. But even there, I struggled to fit in sometimes, because I came from a Venezuelan family. If you were to ask me now, I’d say “Miami, I’m Venezuelan.” I’m happy and proud to be here. Not just because of how happy my life has become, but because I believe I found where I belong.

The post The Perks of Being a Second-Generation Venezuelan appeared first on Caracas Chronicles.

Niño enchufado lleva una Land Rover a la patinata del colegio

Neisser Banout — Mon, 20 Dec 2021 12:30:00 GMT

Doscientos caballos de fuerza interrumpieron la tranquila mañana que se vivía este lunes durante la patinata decembrina del prestigioso colegio San Benito Arcángel. El causante de semejante disturbio fue Matías Ignacio Sánchez, un niño enchufado de 8 años que decidió asistir al evento navideño de su escuela con la Land Rover que recibió como regalo tras haber sacado “B+” en la boleta.

Por casualidad nuestro pasante subpagado estaba ganándose su bono navideño (cuidando carros en el estacionamiento de ese colegio) y por eso consiguió entrevistar al director del plantel, Mario Bastidas, quien nos relató lo sucedido: “Una patinata es un evento tranquilo, hecho para que los niños disfruten de sus bicicletas, sus madres gasten miles de dólares en los puestos de comida y los maestros podamos beber ponche crema en horario laboral, pero no, tenía que llegar el niño este a arruinarnos el día para todos. Desde que llegó en esa gandola, el carajito no paró de picar cauchos, poner reguetón a todo volumen e invitar a sus compañeritas a Tulum con todo pago. Lo peor es que no es la primera vez que Matías hace algo así, para la fiesta de San Valentín de este año me ofreció 5 mil dólares para disfrazarme de cupido, con pañal y todo, y aunque al final me pude comprar mi carrito, debo reconocer que fue un momento muy humillante para mí”.

Más tarde nuestro pasante conversó con el padre del niño, Enyelber Sánchez, hombre de 32 años apasionado por el béisbol, las camisas pegadas y el lavado de activos a través de emprendimientos de Cocadas, para conocer su opinión sobre lo sucedido: “Mano, a mí las patinatas me parecen bien gallas, por eso preferí que mi hijo se viniera en su camionetota antes que en cualquier mariquera de juguete de esos que usan los niños. Tú sabes lo que dicen, del monopatín a la homosexualidad hay un solo paso, y que Dios me perdone si tú eres de esa comunidad. No me importa lo que opine el director, los maestros o la mamá del niño que atropelló Mati, él puede hacer lo que quiera porque sus intenciones son buenas y honestas, tal como las mías”, concluyó Sánchez antes de tomar una bocanada de su vape sabor desayuno americano.

CICPC arresta al inventor del panettone de frutas confitadas

Neisser Banout — Mon, 20 Dec 2021 12:00:00 GMT

Este lunes, la Comisión Antiplatosnavideñosquenosonsabrosos del Cuerpo de Investigaciones Penales y Criminalísticas (CICPC), detuvo —sorprendentemente sin uso de violencia— al señor Giovanni Brindisi, creador del panettone de frutas confitadas. Brindisi fue aprehendido in fraganti mientras se encontraba con dos cómplices planeando otro atentado al sabor: un cachito de hojaldre con chocolate y Miramar.

Rodolfo Porras Porras, comandante del escuadrón que orquestó la detención del peligroso sujeto, ofreció más detalles sobre el arresto: “Mediante un procedimiento hecho con la policía local, logramos identificar a Brindisi, un tipo confeso que estaba prófugo, acusado de la creación de esa aberración de tipo culinaria, de ese atentado para la sociedad civil, militar y civil militar que es el panettone de frutas confitadas. El exitoso operativo fue producto de la casualidad: nuestro sargento López López se encontraba en la búsqueda de un sitio para comprar unos frescos cuando de repente llegó a su nariz un fuerte olor a melocotón rancio; el rastro le permitió a López y a otros miembros de la Comisión dar con el escondite del fugitivo. Procedimos a entrar al lugar y lo encontramos —literalmente— con las manos en la masa, haciendo su receta secreta de panettone con frutos secos, se le dio la señal de alto y procedimos nuevamente a hacer efectiva su detención como tal. Me aterra pensar qué otras cosas habrá hecho este peligroso individuo en esa cocina. ¿Pan de jamón con pepperoni? ¿Hallacas de tofu? Lo que me reconforta es saber que ese monstruo ya está tras las rejas”, finalizó Porras Porras, mientras 100 kilos incautados de panettone de frutas confitadas eran destruidos por la boca de todos los presentes en la Comandancia.

¡Héroes! Gobierno evita spoilers de Spiderman con apagón nacional

Neisser Banout — Fri, 17 Dec 2021 20:15:41 GMT

En la madrugada de este viernes un apagón afectó a 20 estados del país, despertando en muchos traumas y paranoias que quedaron en el inconsciente colectivo luego del megaapagón de 2019. Sin embargo, puedes respirar tranquilo: pues hoy se conoció que el gobierno habría causado el apagón de anoche para evitar que vieras los spoilers de Spiderman No Way Home.

“Compañeros, compañeras y compañeres: este apagón fue un ataque terrorista pero en contra de los mismos terroristas que están diciendo cosas sobre la nueva película de Spiderman. Terrorismo y terrorismo se cancelan, ¿verdac? Como en las ecuaciones esas dificilísimas que veía uno en séptimo grado. Así que esto fue algo positivo”, aseguró el primer mandatario Nicolás Maduro, en una alocución hecha a la luz de la vela. Luego de asegurar que ya habría contactado a Marvel, a DC y a Pocoyó para pedir que saquen una película de Super Bigote, Maduro continuó: “Ellos se creen inteligentes, pero más inteligente soy yo que los dejé sin luz a todos para que no sucediera el acto atroz de andar divulgando los detalles de la película por las redes sociales, estoy seguro que la ultraderecha losmesoneroscista está detrás de esto. Solo que una vez más no pudieron con nosotros. Pero los salvé, agradézcanme después”, finalizó Maduro mientras se aplicaba serum en el bigote.

Llanero le arranca una pierna a Venom tras confundirlo con chimó

Neisser Banout — Fri, 17 Dec 2021 20:08:23 GMT

A tempranas horas de la mañana de hoy, voceros de Marvel confirmaron la pérdida de una de las extremidades de Venom, luego de que un llanero se la arrebatara con los dientes luego de pensar que estaba hecha de chimó. El antihéroe extraterrestre sufrió el terrible ataque hoy en la mañana, mientras se encontraba —como todos los días— pensando a quien comerse.

Enviamos a nuestro pasante subpagado a conversar con el llanero Jacinto Reyes, quien se mostró muy apenado por el acontecimiento que protagonizó sin querer esta mañana: “Nojile, yo quiero pedirle perdón a toda esa gente que sigue a esta jodía de Marber porque les malogré al mostro ese. Fue sin querer, ojalá pudiera devolver el tiempo para no perjudicar a nadie. Yo pensaba que eso era una promoción gigante de una nueva marca de chimó, lo siento. Agradezco que alguien me salvó porque ese señor me quería comer. Pero es que también cómo van a hacer a ese coño de ese color, ¿ah? Uno es un veguero y se confunde, yo pensé que estaba toitico hecho de chimó. A veces me dejo llevar por mis deseos, prometo no volver hacer algo así nunca más”, finalizó Reyes, mientras le arrancaba un palito a Groot para sacarse un pedazo de carne de un diente.

Why Twitter Suspended 277 Chavista Accounts

Probox & Caracas Chronicles Team — Fri, 17 Dec 2021 12:06:13 GMT

On December 2nd, Twitter announced the suspension of 277 Venezuelan accounts that promoted the massive dissemination of accounts, hashtags and trending topics that support the Maduro government’s propaganda and disinformation. The platform also identified that many of these users had authorized the Twitter Patria set of applications, in which they allowed the government access to their accounts to monitor their activity.

Twitter publishes these analyses and publishes the report with the dataset for researchers, academics and the media, in order to maintain transparency and impartiality on how they apply actions to accounts that violate their policies.

But, what does it mean? Is there a bigger picture? Can we use this case to analyze Twitterzuela’s behavior? Is this measure enough to fight government disinformation?

What did Twitter do and why did they do it?

Twitter reported that it penalized these 277 accounts for violating the platform’s policies and terms of use, which establishes that any coordinated activity that generates spam or seeks to manipulate the conversation violates their policies, resulting in the suspension of the accounts. temporarily or permanently, depending on each case.

The Twitter Policy against Spam and Platform Manipulation is applied in these cases under the “Accounts and Identity” section. Users can’t deceive through the use of fake accounts or artificially amplify or obstruct (with bots or coordinated content) the conversations and experiences of other users. This includes a rule that prohibits users from receiving payment to promote inorganic activity, which can be related to the Maduro Twitter user bonus, which we wrote about during our coverage of the elections. How do we know Maduro has a special bonus for those who promote government propaganda? He tweeted it:

#ULTIMAHORA || Inicia la entrega de Mención Premio a las personas que se destacaron en Redes sociales (Twitter) a través del Sistema @CarnetDLaPatria durante la semana comprendida entre el 15 al 21 de Noviembre 2021.@MSVEnContacto #22Nov #VictoriaPopular pic.twitter.com/oOLFtGyZnf

— Somos Venezuela | MSVEnLinea (@MSVEnLinea) November 22, 2021

Do we know anything about the 277 accounts?

18 of the accounts had been used to amplify, in a coordinated and inauthentic way, propaganda content generated by the governments of Chávez and Maduro, from 2012 to 2021.
The accounts made use of a set of special applications, Twitter Patria, that published tweets and retweeted chavista leaders, automatically, especially the Twitter account of Nicolás Maduro.
Also listed in the data collection are 18 bot-like accounts that were part of Alex Saab’s advocacy campaign on Twitter.
The dataset also contains accounts related to platform manipulation operations that were carried out in Mexico and Colombia. Evidence was found that at least one of the accounts that participated in promoting coordinated Twitter trends for Mexican audiences also helped drive trends of this type in Venezuela, including some defamatory labels against Juan Guaidó.
Cazadores de Fake News has a thorough presentation where they analyze the Twitter dataset:

What’s Twitter Patria?

Twitter Patria is like a group of apps with the same function: linking a Twitter account to the carnet de la patria, to monitor and make payments according to the content shared by the users on Twitter, especially the use of hashtags promoted by government entities, officials and authorities.

Are there more existing accounts with similar behavior?

These types of accounts are identified by Probox as digital troops (tropas digitales). And they have some characteristics we can highlight:

They belong to real people, but they have inauthentic behavior: they operate with patterns, posting schedules, devices, locations, and IP addresses.
Most of the accounts are linked to the Patria System.
They are dedicated to replicating hashtags, promoting users and retweeting in a massive way.
They generally fulfill their task by using the government’s daily label, mentioning members of the regime in their tweets, like Nicolás Maduro, Diosdado Cabello, Delcy Rodríguez, among others.
Usually, the message of the tweet isn’t directly related to the content on the hashtag they promote, its only purpose is to position it among the trending topics.
They promote hashtags from many government accounts, support and massively share content from state entities, authorities and officials of the radical ruling party, but they usually focus on those by the account of the Ministry of Information (@Mippcivzla).
In five different tutorials consulted by Cazadores de Fake News, disseminated from the beginning of 2019 to 2021 on websites, Facebook, WhatsApp and Telegram groups of Tuiteros de la Patria, they indicated that the “goal” was to publish at least 400 tweets per day. This is the equivalent to posting a tweet every one minute and forty-eight seconds, for an uninterrupted time of twelve hours. In practice, it’s a job that could be done continuously for 34 minutes, at the rate of one tweet posted every five seconds.

Has this happened before?

Yes. There have been three Twitter security operations that have shut down a considerable amount of accounts associated with political inorganic activity in Venezuela:

January 2019: Twitter shut down 1,960 Venezuelan accounts
June 2019: Twitter shut down 33 Venezuelan accounts
December 2021: Twitter shut down 277 Venezuelan accounts

How did Twitter become aware of this situation?

As we’ve seen before, journalism has been a great tool to visibilize corruption, disinformation and irregular activities of the Venezuelan regime. In this case, Cazadores de Fake News led important investigations about tuiteros de la patria. EsPaja.com, Medianálisis and Probox also made a relevant investigation titled “Auge y declive del escuadrón tuitero del Estado venezolano en tiempos de COVID-19,” in alliance with Transparencia Venezuela and with the support of the European Union.

These efforts are essential to defend access to information on platforms like Twitter, which, far from being just a social media platform, represents a space in which Venezuelans can practice their freedom of expression and organize digitally to claim their rights.

Should we worry about how chavismo controls social media?

First, let’s look at how Twitterzuela usually works: there’s a big difference between how chavismo and civil society shape the conversation on Twitter.

In November, for example, chavismo promoted 76% of the trending topics and was responsible for approximately 77.64% of the registered tweets.
Meanwhile, the civil society, the opposition, the anonymous networks and other participants in the sociopolitical conversation only promoted approximately 24% of the trends and generated 22.36% of the tweets registered in the month.

Is Twitter’s effort against chavismo’s inorganic accounts enough?

It was determined that the minimum number of retweets received by the tweets of Nicolás Maduro’s account on Twitter decreased to almost 14% compared to the number of retweets he received before this massive suspension.

Twitter’s action visibilizes the work by these organizations, academics and independent media that have documented how the State uses propaganda and disinformation strategies to alter the conversation on social media, financing the digital imposition of its narrative with state resources.

Probox identified approximately 8,900,623 tweets in 125 political and social labels, only in November. The ruling party generated 95 of these labels and 6,910,645 tweets. The level of inorganicity in the official trends is the highest with respect to the socio-political tendencies, generating 52.73% of inorganic activity in November through 37,475 possible bot users identified in their labels. These represented 82.69% of all the possible bots (45,316) detected by Probox throughout the month.

The suspension of 277 accounts by Twitter in proportion to the aforementioned indicators reflects that there is indeed manipulation and domination of the political conversation by the Maduro government. Although this effort exposes and generates consequences against the mechanisms of manipulation of the ruling party in the socio-political conversation on Twitter in Venezuela, unfortunately, it still seems to be insufficient in terms of proportion, speed and scope of disinformation on Twitter.

You can subscribe to PoliTwitter here.

The post Why Twitter Suspended 277 Chavista Accounts appeared first on Caracas Chronicles.

Reactivating the Negotiation

Naky Soto — Fri, 17 Dec 2021 11:24:45 GMT

Luis Ugalde said that the negotiation between the opposition and Maduro’s regime must be reactivated in January 2022. He assured it’s a moment to be humble, for chavismo and the opposition because “they were defeated” in the elections in November. He called out everything that explains the regime’s political and administrative failings and warned: “If you want to try and fool yourself, go ahead, but you can’t fool the country.” To the opposition, he said that the lack of a joint vision impacted the November results but, “the good news is that it was proven that you can win.” He said that Venezuela has deteriorated tremendously, so investments are needed. Ugalde thinks that it’s important that both chavista and opposition leaders should feel like they’re being punished.
The Universidad Central de Venezuela was founded on December 22nd, 1721 as the Real y Pontificia Universidad de Caracas, when Venezuela was a Spanish colony. Yesterday, UCV authorities celebrated its 300th anniversary. Dean Cecilia García Arocha ignored and didn’t mention the tragedy that this institution is going through because of a political decision by chavismo. During the speech, students protested to demand answers for classes being suspended. There weren’t any protests regarding the professors’ wages, which are $8 dollars, while the average is 3,000 dollars in Latin America, the fact that the UCV has lost over 1,200 professors in four years and that they’ve lost one-third of their students since 2015 and the state of disrepair of its infrastructure. It was a day to demand better conditions for the next 300 years.

CEOFANB chief Domingo Hernández Lárez said that the Armed Forces “neutralized” a plane of an alleged Colombian drug trafficking group. They didn’t say who did it, where, or how they identified the plane.

Chavista deputy Gladys Requena said that they managed to pass 55 laws and block 33 laws, “including some laws regarding human rights.”
Guárico governor José Manuel Vásquez said that food production increased by “150% compared to previous years.” He emphasized that they have created a plan to sow 300,000 hctrs. in 2022, and that the gas situation has notably improved.
Julio Borges revealed the reasons for his resignation to the caretaker government before the AN Delegate Commission: “It’s up to the AN, to decide what will be done and what’s the future of the democratic alternative when the Statute for Transition must be approved in a couple of days, the only thing that provides legality (…), there’s no other way but reforming this Statute before January 4th,” he warned. He announced that Primero Justicia will present a reform project so “we can have a different organization, we must have the ability to change and adapt.”
Doctors say that the number of vaccinated patients in Aragua has decreased because some vaccination centers have shut down without providing explanations. The president of the state’s Doctors Guild, Ramón Rubio, asked for the reopening of the vaccination centers so patients can get their second dose.
Meudy Osío, the widow of councilman Fernando Albán, assured that sentencing two officers to five years and ten months in prison, which was announced by ANC-imposed prosecutor general Tarek William Saab, trivializes what happened and is a joke. She said that after three years after her husband was murdered, they haven’t had an autopsy and she hasn’t been allowed to exhume his body to bury him out of the country.
The secretary-general of the Workers of the National Assembly Union (SINFUCAN), José Vicente Rivero, asked the speaker of Nicolás’s AN, Jorge Rodríguez, to stop persecuting workers: “We are denouncing harassment and siege (…) SINFUCAN leaders’ wages have been suspended, which is a violation of the law.”
Remigio Ceballos reported they’re working on a plan in three peace quadrants with workers of the Public Ministry and the Supreme Tribunal of Justice to “relieve bottlenecks in the criminal investigation system.”
Pablo Zambrano, leader of FETRASALUD, denounced that 600 doses of morphine, 25 oxygen tanks and 12 computers have been stolen from the Luis Razetti Oncology Hospital.

FundaRedes denounced the deterioration of Javier Tarazona’s health, who’s a prisoner in SEBIN El Helicoide.

Public employees denounced on social media that Maduro’s regime deposited their “hallaca bonus”, 1.75 bolivars or 0.38 dollars, which doesn’t cover the cost of a small portion of annatto, the seed used in Venezuela to dye the cornmeal for hallacas, a traditional Christmas food.
A report by the U.S. Department of State on terrorism in 2020, warned that Venezuela is still a country that’s permissive to armed groups and assured that Nicolás’s regime has financial ties with groups like FARC and ELN.

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Two SEBIN Officers Were Sentenced for the Murder of Councilman Fernando Albán

Naky Soto — Thu, 16 Dec 2021 11:00:35 GMT

ANC-imposed head prosecutor Tarek William Saab reported that two SEBIN officers were sentenced to five years and ten months in jail, for the murder of councilman Fernando Albán. Miguel Do Santos Rodríguez and Keiberth Cibelli Moreno admitted to committing the crimes they were charged with. It was a crime committed by the State, Saab was the first to use state media to silence those who spoke up, and what he announced today isn’t the result of a true investigation on the chain of command, to allow proving that councilman Albán was tortured by SEBIN officers until he died and his body was thrown out the window to cover up the crimes.
- Fernando Albán died on October 8th, 2018, under state custody. He had been arrested on October 5th and he was under forced disappearance for two days. They tied him to an attack against Maduro and he was going to be taken to court for his hearing on October 8th but Tarek William Saab reported, on a phone call with VTV, that “he had committed suicide” after officers who were guarding him took a break to use the restroom. Minister Néstor Reverol changed this version and tweeted that he jumped out of the 10th floor of the SEBIN building. The whole state media network pushed hard to establish this as the truth but the evidence and the fact that they couldn’t keep their version straight, opened the way for the councilman’s case to become an important case in the terrible history of human rights violations.

Between 1996 and 2020, state security forces have committed 10,238 violations of the right to live, 7,893 of which have been extrajudicial executions, according to Provea.

Saab reported that his office has prosecuted 820 officers for human rights violations, 210 of which have been sentenced. He said it like it’s an achievement.
In another exercise of “trending topic justice”, Saab appointed a prosecutor to investigate the case that went viral on Twitter about Salud Chacao refusing to treat patients for wearing shorts.
The UN Human Rights Council concluded that Venezuela violated Allan Brewer Carías’s right to be judged by an independent court. He was accused of conspiracy in 2005. They ask that the case against him be annulled.
Dr. Julio Castro assured that it doesn’t make sense to say that “80% of Venezuelans have been vaccinated” because “people under 14 years old are 28% of the population, that would mean that more than 100% of adults are vaccinated,” he wrote.
The 8th High-Level Venezuela Belarus Commission. Ricardo Menéndez said that they’ll handle new financial and cooperation plans.
Interior and justice minister Remigio Ceballos assured that there’s “an existing respect for human rights” in the country’s security forces and that they’ve taken measures to strengthen them.
BCV president Calixto Ortega Sánchez assured that, because of the BCV’s actions and measures, the country could leave hyperinflation behind in 2022. He didn’t explain what those actions were or what’s the plan for next year, though.
Economist Asdrúbal Oliveros assured that if sanctions were lifted, the economy would grow by 10%, but he doesn’t think that will happen. He estimates the government received around 2,000 million dollars in 2021 and that it could receive up to 5,000 million next year.

UDO dean Milena Bravo reported that they’ve only received 23% of their 2021 budget and added that other universities have only received 10% of their budget.

Ramón Goyo, president of the Venezuelan Exporters Association, said that exports increased by 30% compared to 2020, favoring seafood, cacao, rum, personal hygiene products and the automotive sector.

Colombian intelligence agencies ruled out that a.k.a. Iván Márquez is in Cuba, as was said after the deaths of ‘El Paisa’ and ‘Romaña’, but he’s still in Venezuela and from there, he planned the terrorist attack on December 14th, as retaliation for the deaths of his associates.
U.S. deputy secretary for Western Hemisphere affairs Brian A. Nichols confirmed that a State Department delegation visited Venezuela for a consular visit for American citizens who are in jail.
Inparques secretary general José Matute warned that they lack the conditions or resources to see to forest fires. Neither their firefighters nor their park rangers have medical insurance.

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A Budget That Lacks Planning

Naky Soto — Wed, 15 Dec 2021 11:37:39 GMT

Maduro’s Assembly approved the budget for 2022, 62,379,454,806 bolivars, or 13,567 million dollars. The budget was presented on December 10th by Delcy Rodríguez, and she said that it will help in the fight against hyperinflation after 14 zeroes were removed from the bolivar and undergoing hyperinflation for four years. She also said that 77% of the budget will be used for “social investment” but, even though she’s the Finance minister, she didn’t release the projected inflation, the currency exchange rate, the GDP, or the price of the oil barrel, oil income and other sources of revenue. The Partido Comunista de Venezuela abstained.

Venezuela has at least 132 military officers and 113 civilians are political prisoners, but Maduro’s Assembly approved the first draft of the special law for crimes of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity, just to send a message to the ICC that they’re going to investigate and sanction these crimes.

They also approved the first draft of the law for justice and reparations for victims of human rights violations and an energy agreement with Trinidad and Tobago.
Oscar Ronderos, from the oil and energy committee, talked about changing the Hydrocarbons Law to incorporate private companies in the country and abroad.
Súmate exhorted the National Electoral Council to block PSUV from using state resources to mobilize voters during the election in Barinas in January.
MUD candidate for Apure Luis Lippa introduced a request before the CNE to impinge the results for alleged irregularities. Out of 346 voting centers, 120 couldn’t connect to the system: “We’re talking about a difference of over 2,000 votes in these (120) voting centers, and if the result is that they won by 3,700 votes, well, no, we can’t believe that,” he said.
The third shipment of Sputnik Light arrived in Venezuela, 1.5 million doses that will be used as booster shots, said Delcy Rodríguez. Dr. Julio Castro said it’s wrong and you can’t call it that.

Humberto Prado sent a summary on human rights in Venezuela to international organizations. “Tales of torture: the silent reality of imprisoned military officers, attacks on press freedom, and lethality and impunity of illegal FAES actions.”

UCAB’s Human Rights Center said that 69% of NGO members think that there are no conditions to exercise civil rights and fear prevents people from getting involved in political participation activities.
Lawyer and human rights activist Joel García denounced that judge Estela Ortega, detained after proclaiming the mayor of San Juan de los Morros, Sulme Ávila, was taken to the Penitenciaría General de Venezuela.
The Oversight Committee of the Ecuadorian National Assembly will send an investigation of a corruption case involving Alex Saab to the U.S., Panama, Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador. Saab is allegedly responsible for fake exports between Ecuador and Venezuela, using the Sucre system, a payment system created by Rafael Correa and Hugo Chávez twelve years ago. The Sucre system moved over 2,600 million dollars in nine years. The committee concluded there was a “deliberate intention to hide Saab’s presence or participation” in these transactions.
A court sentenced FAES officers Erick Martínez and Avit Botia to prison for killing José Altuve and Angelo Villanueva and stating a clash afterward.
UCV dean Cecilia García Arocha said they’ll celebrate the 300th anniversary of the university being founded on December 16th.
NGO Sembramos Todos director Enrique García denounced that the Henri Pittier National Park is enduring fires, invasions and deforestation and that 35% of the park has been lost.
Several Latin American dictators are meeting in Havana to celebrate 17 years of the ALBA, a bloc founded by Hugo Chávez to buy loyalty with petrodollars.

At least three people, two cops and one civilian died near the Camilo Daza Airport in Cúcuta, after a terrorist attack. Colombian Defense Minister Diego Molano said the attack was planned and financed from Venezuela. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López rejected the accusation.

San Juan Bautista festivities were declared Intangible Cultural Heritage by UNESCO, the eighth Venezuelan tradition to be recognized in the list. It’s celebrated on June 24th in several central states. Si San Juan lo tiene, San Juan te lo da.

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How Venezuelan Preschools Turned into a Problem

Patrizia Troccoli — Tue, 14 Dec 2021 13:46:47 GMT

The promise of early childhood education has been one of prosperity and equality. Time and time again, studies have shown that high-quality early childhood education can provide underprivileged children with the habits and opportunities that they need to get through school and overcome poverty. This was the very promise that inspired Venezuelan policymakers to implement a universal childhood education program in 1970, one of the first early childhood programs in the region. While the early childhood program’s expansion has been undermined at times by quality problems and lack of funding, the fuel crisis, low wages and supply problems have all but destroyed the program’s ability to fulfill its promise of equality and education for all.

“Teaching used to be my dream, but now I wake up every day and reexamine my choices,” says Ana, her voice echoing against the emptiness of the rooms where we stood.

Ana, whose name has been changed to preserve anonymity, heads a public preschool in the outskirts of Caracas that has been struggling to stay afloat throughout the crisis. The preschool, the only one of its kind in this rather rural area, usually serves 80 children ages two to six.

My visit to the school coincided with the government’s decision in April 2021 to maintain a “radical lockdown” system as the result of an increase in cases. As we walked through the school, I took note of the colorless walls and empty shelves and Ana responded by assuring that the lockdown had enabled the school’s further abandonment. The government, whose competency it is to maintain this preschool, had provided no guidance to teachers with regards to how to handle schooling during the pandemic, leaving issues of maintenance, security and educational provision at bay. “I’ve been coming back here every so often, doing administrative work so that I can maintain things as they are and also to signal to others that someone is here so they keep out, but there are some things I can’t really fix.”

While Ana’s strategy had been successful at avoiding theft and preserving a somewhat adequate infrastructure, the emptiness of the rooms reeked of abandonment rather than simplicity. And in fact, limited resources had been affecting the school’s functioning even before the lockdowns. In early 2020, concerns about the rising cost of transportation and food coupled with stagnant wages had already begun to affect the school. Staffing concerns were affecting the school’s ability to enroll more students. “I had to turn away a few parents who wanted to enroll their children in preschool last year because I was short on staff and I must respect a strict student-teacher ratio.” Additionally, while the lockdowns meant that the school’s infrastructure and stocking issues would be completely ignored, it also served as a temporary solution to the imminent wave of teacher desertion and absenteeism crisis that was about to emerge as a result of the economic situation.

“The lockdowns that made classes virtual allowed teachers to save money on transportation and enabled them to supplement their income through side gigs,” says Ana. So while the lockdowns were harsh on teachers and students alike they were also the only thing stopping a complete collapse of the educational system. Thus, when the Maduro regime announced in September that schools would return to in-person instruction, Ana joined other teachers in denouncing the infeasibility of this measure. However, many of the complaints about infrastructure, school supplies and staffing issues were ignored when Maduro declared that October 25th would be the first day of in-person school in 19 months.

With the ongoing gas crisis and the rising cost of living, Ana reports that she had to reduce enrollments in the school as a result of staffing shortages and adds that while not all teachers have quit, many have begun selectively attending classes. She also reports that supply issues have affected the school’s ability to provide food. “We used to provide three meals a day: breakfast, a midday snack and then lunch, but in the past few years that food supply has diminished significantly,” Ana explains that food provision has been a challenge throughout the three years that she has served as head of the preschool. The promise of space for children to be protected and nurtured had inspired policymakers in the 1970s to open a preschool in the area, but this promise has become increasingly hard to keep amidst the crisis. The school’s inability to provide three meals a day for all students has also affected attendance. Parents, already struggling with the cost of transportation, often send their kids to school only when lunch is provided.

The Less Visible Effects

So while ideally, a preschool should be a place for children to learn, explore and develop a love of learning, the current circumstances might actually result in a more conflictive, less curious and more unequal generation of children. Preschool children need consistency and reliability in order to be able to develop healthy habits. This pertains both to interactions with other children as well as with teachers. Child development specialist Tracy Gleason highlights the importance of consistency in making friends: “When meetings with peers occur sporadically, it doesn’t allow children to bond very well and it might actually generate feelings of anxiety and abandonment in children and induce conflict.” Routines are also important for successful child development, she argues: “Being able to have a routine provides children with a sense of comfort that enables them to feel like they are in a safe environment where they can explore and learn.” On the other hand, Gleason argues stressful situations in school could contribute to feelings of inadequacy, poor socioemotional development and difficulty concentrating.

The relationship between teachers and students is also central at this educational stage. An Inter-American Development Bank policy analysis report establishes that having good teachers during early childhood boosts learning outcomes in all domains surveyed, namely cognitive development, math and executive functioning.

The best predictor of good teaching according to the study is high wages. It’s believed that a high salary increases teachers’ effort and it reduces desertion rates. In Venezuela, where teachers earn just under $7 a month, desertion rates have skyrocketed. A teacher’s consistency enables them to maintain better relationships with students.

Wendy Gonsenhauer, an early childhood education expert, highlights that teachers must be able to form valuable relationships with their students. Following Piaget’s theories regarding the inherent curiosity of children and Vigotsky’s discovery of the power of guided learning, Gosenhauer argues that children must engage in “scaffolding.” Scaffolding entails children freely exploring their interests and teachers supporting and propping them up with questions. In this sense, teachers serve to boost child learning and development while encouraging independence and freedom. Scaffolding, however, requires teachers to be informed on the interests of their students. “How are you supposed to know how to help them if you don’t know what they like?” says Gosenhauer.

Additionally, the IADB survey shows that setting clear expectations and providing feedback boosts children’s educational outcomes. Therefore, learning at this age relies heavily on the types of relationships children develop with their peers and with their teachers. This, in turn, defines children’s attitudes towards school in general. “A good preschool experience often results in more positive attitudes towards schooling in general,” Gleason claims.

Early childhood education is of vital importance if Venezuela is to overcome the present crisis. In the past, public education had served to boost social mobility in Venezuela. It was the opening of a public high school in Porlamar (Nueva Esparta) that enabled my grandmother to become the first person to attend college in her family in the late 1960s, even despite her modest upbringing. Public education also helped my godfather escape the slums of Caracas in the 1970s and graduate from the country’s most prestigious medical school in the 1980s. While Ana describes her school as having been a haven, a place where children could “play, make friends and exploit their curiosity,” the current situation has turned the school into another source of anxiety and stress for young children. Studies show that early childhood education has its greatest impact on the most vulnerable children as it allows them to be in a safe and reliable environment. However, in the current situation, the protective effects of schooling are being undermined by the economic and social crisis facing the country.

Amidst this unreliable and stressful situation, the dream of education as an equalizer is slowly turning into a nightmare. As children begin to respond to the double whammy of having to deal with stressful situations both at home and in school, a generation more unequal and more prone to conflict is likely to arise.

The post How Venezuelan Preschools Turned into a Problem appeared first on Caracas Chronicles.

Did Chavismo Kill the Museum of Contemporary Art of Caracas?

Naky Soto — Tue, 14 Dec 2021 11:47:52 GMT

Sergio Monsalve, president of the Critics Circuit of Caracas, denounced the imminent and definitive closure of the Museum of Contemporary Art of Caracas and warned that its facilities are in very poor condition and its valuable art collection is in serious risk from humidity and neglect. The few workers that still remain in the MACC, ask for help from private companies to preserve the artistic heritage that is still preserved.
- Culture minister, Ernesto Villegas, denied that the Contemporary Art Museum (MACCSI) is shutting down. He assured that the claim just seeks to undermine the fact that UNESCO will be including another Venezuelan tradition in UNESCO’s cultural heritage list: San Juan Bautista festivities. The ministry hasn’t published the museum’s annual budget or the condition of the works of art it owns.
- Caracas’ public museums have been struggling for survival for a long time, as we have previously covered in this article by Tony Frangie Mawad. You can also read more about the situation of humidity in the Museum of Contemporary Art of Caracas in this article.

Netherlands authorities delayed Delcy Rodríguez’s trip to the International Criminal Court for “pending issues with the security authorization” of the plane she used.

- A spokesperson said that the country granted an exception to EU sanctions on chavista authorities “with the sole purpose of having her attend a meeting in ICC headquarters.”
- Delcy said that the country had violated the UN Charter, the Vienna Convention and other agreements when they blocked her delegation from traveling to The Hague to meet Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan, which she called “an illegal offense.”

Juan Guaidó said it’s time to unite the opposition, with the goal of holding presidential elections to “get rid of Maduro.” He reiterated that the solution to the crisis starts with the National Salvation Agreement and “free and fair elections in the short term.” He thinks that what happened in Barinas proves the dictatorship is a minority (…) Maduro, you have an expiration date. Who’s the candidate for 2024, if you even make it that far?” he asked. Guaidó also said that democratic factions are ready to go back to the negotiation in Mexico because it’s necessary to achieve benefits for the Venezuelan people. He asked not to mistake the mechanism for the goal: “The goal is an agreement, guarantees, dates, a timetable, conditions. Not sitting at the table. That’s a mechanism.”
Oil minister, Tareck El Aissami, posted a video assuring he’s ok after he underwent surgery for a hernia. He added he never took a break from his responsibilities because he was working on his phone the whole time.
Flor Pujol, the IVIC virologist, said that citizens will probably need a vaccine booster in 2022. She said that immunity doesn’t disappear six months into the vaccine, just that the levels of antibodies decrease and that’s why a booster shot is being recommended.
The Venezuelan Episcopal Conference (CEV) published updated figures on the numbers of COVID-19 patients in the clergy between March 2022 and December 2021. 439 among 2,113 priests in the country had COVID-19, and 45 died.
Delcy Rodríguez said that Venezuela reached an 82.4% vaccination rate.
The Central Bank reported that the accumulated inflation rate is 631%.
The president of the Oil Chamber, Reinaldo Quintero, thinks it’s unlikely that the oil production goals are met this year: “We won’t reach one million barrels, but we’re not that far off.”
UCAB dean Ronald Balza said that dollarization needs the Executive’s authorization for developing the financial system: “Receiving more than deposits, allowing mobility between banks, access to loans in dollars to invest.” He recommended developing a multicurrency system.
Carlos Fernández, president of FEDECÁMARAS, assured that the private sector will grow by seven points in 2022, and explained that this improvement will be thanks to food, medicine and hygiene products, far from the country’s productive capacity. He emphasized that despite not having public policies that stimulate growth in the private sector, it was this sector that stopped the drop during the last eight consecutive years of contraction.
Active and retired CANTV workers protested for better wages, medical services and benefits. Union leader José Padrón said that several workers have died because they don’t have insurance.
The secretary-general of the National Journalists Guild Edgar Cárdenas reported there had been 251 attacks on journalists and media outlets in 2021.
Doctors, nurses and other workers of the Materno Infantil de El Valle Hospital protested demanding they get paid their wages, Christmas bonuses and other benefits.
The Public Ministry ordered processing, investigating and sanctioning those who charge for providing medical care to patients in public hospitals.
32 environmentalists have been murdered between 2013 and 2021, said ODEVIDA, 21 have been murdered by illegal miners’ sicarios and 11 by FANB officers. ODEVIDA has registered 80 cases of activists that have been victims of violence and repression.

Only six vehicles were assembled in Venezuela in 2021.

The National Electoral Council reported that physical electoral logbooks for the Barinas election were audited with PSUV, ORA, MUD, MAS, APC, PPT and UPV representatives.
Spanish Foreign minister José Manuel Albares thinks the EU must make a bigger effort to keep the negotiation between the regime and the opposition going so “we can finally see democracy succeed in Venezuela,” he said. The EU will review the first analysis made by the EOM while they wait for their final report.
Aruba extended its prohibition on all types of flights from Venezuela until March 2022.
U.S. Press secretary Jen Psaki emphasized on Monday that President Biden “fully intends to run for reelection” in 2024.

The post Did Chavismo Kill the Museum of Contemporary Art of Caracas? appeared first on Caracas Chronicles.

There was an election a week ago

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sun, 28 Nov 2021 00:16:00 GMT

After years of covering in detail Venezuelan elections I would be remiss not to mention last Sunday regional "elections" in Venezuela. Then again, as I put in a tweet, the same day Chilean elections seemed more important to follow. At least for me.

Once upon a time, say before 2015, one could still find enough information, enough semi reliable data to look for trends in Venezuelan voting results. I did not do too bad in my analysis predictions. But after the debacle of 2015 the regime made sure no vote meant anything anymore. I am not going to go into tiresome details. Remember, they are mostly pre electoral fraud, from happily banning candidates the regime dislikes to go all out and take over political parties. Amen of all the treachery in voter registration, excessive use of state means for chavista campaign, etc, etc. On election day you keep having all the unfair interventions from the army forcing people to vote, holding results, etc, etc.

All very commie banana republic.

Thus since 2015 I stopped wasting time in electoral analysis. The more so that in addition to the great heights in election treachery we have a large abstention movement and probably up to 4 million Venezuelan voters in exile, and thus with no option.

This being said, there are a few details worth commenting.

First, there was after many years the return of serious electoral observers. Namely proven and tested teams. There are only three sources of reliable electoral observation today: teams set up by the UN, the OAS or EU. Some countries I suppose would also do serious electoral observation, democratic countries like Japan or Canada. Maybe even the Carter Center. But that is all, and certainly not the countries that the regime invited previously for what is at best electoral tourism (Russia or Bolivia, for example).

Why did the regime accepted the European Union to send an observing team? This is the question, the more so that as expected the preliminary report under diplomatic language indicated that the vote of last Sunday was shit. I suppose that the regime having survived three years of sanctions and pressures and general exhaustion about Venezuela assumed that the world would recognize Maduro if this one held semi palatable elections with a selected few handouts to the opposition, preferably to the opposition that it has tried to build through payoffs. Well, if that was the reason, it did not work out.

Another reason is the need for the regime to reach some form of agreement with the US so that some sanctions are lifted. But the regime, to begin with, is incapable of seriousness when it is negotiation time. Whether the regime offers decent elections is not really an issue there, though it could help. But as the scorpion crossing the stream on the back of the toad, the regime cannot help itself and it will sabotage any opening, be it formal negotiations or semi fair elections.

This new PR failure behind us, what else can we rescue from last Sunday? As expected the regime won handily but not that great. Abstention was here and with a copious dose of opposition division it still lost on the total vote but carried all states but 3, while loosing a bunch of town halls. In fact that townhall fall back should be worrisome for the regime: for once the regime did better in big cities than in the country side towns where the opposition struck a few interesting wins. The provinces, apparently, are starting to be tired of being taken for granted.

Thus, in spite of all the treachery, the regime vote count keeps sliding down, fast enough that it cannot be hidden.

What else is worth noting? The opposition division. This one is basically 4 fold, believe it or not.

First, the 4 million + overseas. Where would those go were presidential elections carried tomorrow?

Second, the chronic abstention. Their number look good if you count in the 4 million abroad. But the fact of the matter is that some are starting to vote again. Why? Because the abstention promoters offer nothing in exchange, and people want solutions, not speeches on morality.

In third we have the pro Chavez opposition. Those are a set of individuals that came from the opposition but decided to try to reach political deals with the regime. All for naught of course, nobody is fooled. In last year parliamentary election the regime had to fudge some dubious vote count to make sure a handful of them would get elected! But they are very useful for the opposition in a way I am surprised people do not talk about. Last week they got more votes than what we could have expected. Me thinks that many chavistas voted for them as a protest vote against Maduro! And remember: when you have been attached for two decades to a political idea, the first vote against is the more difficult; it gets easier after. And those fake opposition parties are a good stepping stone for transitioning.

Finally we have the remains of the real opposition, those that did jail, were tortured, are in exile, whatever. They did not do too good, though they took 1/6 of townhalls and two states. That is, a little bit more than last time and in spite of abstention exile and divisions. For better or for worse, the so called G4 remains the true opposition and is still recognized as such after last Sunday show.

That is all. We'll see what's next.

No need to hold your breath on oppo/regime negotiations

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Thu, 13 May 2021 23:03:00 GMT

A few days ago I was writing about the regime apparent willingness to consider that maybe, it was an hypothetical hypothesis that well, you know, we may talk to someone in Guaido's office to see if we could borrow the pencil sharpener.....

And then we got Guaido making a rather dramatic statement as to be willing to ask for lifting a few sanctions AFTER the regime shows positive concrete signs of serious negotiations with preliminary results. In a Tweeter thread I posted on that:

(1)This could be a major development. @jguaido offers a global negotiation of measured give and take. In short: as the government allows more freedom, decent elections and international help free of regime control the Guaido opposition may ask for a progressive lift of sanctions https://t.co/qFCXuy0J7p
— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) May 12, 2021

And then we have Maduro accepting to negotiate through the EU and Norway intermediaries, though adding a suitable set of insults towards Guaido. It is to be noted that according to Ultimas Noticias, a pro regime newspaper, he cited a misleading Tweet from EFE, the Spanish press agency where it says that Guaido has proposed to eliminate sanctions. Guaido never said that, and at any case he would ask for a partial suspension of sanctions AFTER the regime makes concessions first. Then again EFE has not much credibility when reporting on Venezuela, only too often to burnish the image of the regime.

While we are discussing pro regime news outlets, Ultimas noticias writes that Jorge Rodriguez, head of the "novel" national assembly will negotiate once the opposition has beaten its mea culpa. That is, he wants the opposition to acknowledge its mistakes and crimes, that there should be no amnesia __ and then we negotiate. One has to admire the ability of chavismo to commit all sorts of crimes, including those against humanity, and pretend that the real criminals are others. The chutzpah of these guys will never cease to surprise.

Lets pass on the fact that the regime is the one most interested into lifting sanctions since those ones are largely directed at people inside the regime hierarchy, where their ill acquired riches are often blocked on off shore accounts. They want the loot back....

Maduro and Rodriguez are contradicting each other? The regime has not made up its mind? Can it make up its mind?

Whatever it is we must understand that the only ones willing to do a serious negotiation are those in the opposition. This one has not only something to gain out of successful negotiations, but it also cares about the humanitarian crisis inside the country. Or at least it cares way more than the regime who is still unwilling to establish a coherent vaccination plan against Covid, for a burning example. Yes, that is right, Venezuela is now dead last in the number of vaccines applied. Any time soon a Venezuelan variant is about to appear!!!!!

For the regime on the other hand the lone objective of negotiation is to give in as little as possible so that its leadership gets to recover its funds and travel outside to spend them in "la vida alegre". Period.

Needless to say that I am not holding my breath whatsoever.

A kleptocracy starts facing reality?

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Wed, 05 May 2021 22:05:00 GMT

In the past few weeks a few strange signs have been happening for a regime that supposedly has all controls in hands. A regime that has made a point to sabotage any negotiation, to deny the existence of its political opposition, a regime ready to do anything for its survival has given timid signs of negotiating. Before you get your hopes up keep in mind that until now the small concessions made are easily reversible without much damage toward the inner base of the regime.

These first sign was related with Covid, in spite of the heartless approach of the regime towards its victims. Namely it was about agreements to obtain help for Covid testing and vaccines. This is still a work in progress but that the regime accepted to hold discrete talks with the opposition was already something.

Then a couple of days ago some US citizens, directors at Citgo, were released from their Caracas jail to be held in their homes. These men were held as hostages against the Trump sanctions. But it did not work. Sanctions held.

And a greater surprise was the acknowledgement by the regime of some of its crimes. Selected few of course, but those that had quite an echo outside of Venezuela. Though these admissions were limited on context, just as "worthy of further examination". But that the regime accepts to even talk about these crimes is progress.

The biggest surprise may have been the agreement between the World Food Program and Venezuela. See, both Maduro and Guaido appeared with its chair, David Beasley. BOTH had their tweet pic. And thousand of Venezuelan children may soon receive lunch at school, hopefully lowering the dropout rate.

Tremendous breakthrough in #Caracas! @WFP will soon establish operations to provide school meals to 1.5 million of the most vulnerable children. All parties agree that we must always show up together for the people and the children of #Venezuela. Let's get to work. pic.twitter.com/LKuOpapgJj
— David Beasley (@WFPChief) April 21, 2021

En mí reunión con el Director Ejecutivo del Programa Mundial de Alimentos, @WFPChief, le agradecí en nombre de los venezolanos el esfuerzo para que el @WFP_es pueda iniciar operaciones en el país y se pueda combatir el hambre que padecen millones de venezolanos. pic.twitter.com/abtZPnDJJN
— Juan Guaidó (@jguaido) April 20, 2021

And then today's surprise, a new electoral board CNE has been named . Even though the regime could have had a 5 out of 5 names in it, it will be 3 chavistas and 2 opposition (well, we will see how much of an opposition they are). Clearly the regime is accepting to open up to elections that may have some meaning, though do not think that 2 out of 5 at the CNE is enough to ensure free and fair elections, far from it...

What gives? Rather than discussing the details of these developments let's look at the reasons why the regime is begrudgingly making marginal concessions. Certainly there is the Covid crisis, the bankrut country, its economy in shambles, the loss of territorial control in large swaths of the country, sanctions and what not to force the Maduro gang to the table. But the regime has shown once and again its disregard for the well being of the Venezuelan people. The kleptocracy cum drug traffickers are strictly on survival mode in order to retain power at all cost.

What gives in my opinion is Biden holding on the Trump line over China and doubling down on Putin. See, the regime has no notion on what state interests are: since Chavez all foreign policy was guided by the interests of Chavez. But in spite of all its bravado, Trump expressed a bipartisan policy of confronting Russia and China. In his first 100 days Biden has talked tough on China and even called Putin a killer, pushing further that bipartisan agreement. The table has been set, the rivalry between China and the US is now #1 priority, with Putin close behind.

How does this affect Venezuela? Look at a world map and figure out how far from Beijing and Moscow Caracas is. And how close are Syria and Crimea to Moscow and how close the Indian and Pacific Oceans to essential Chinese trade routes. Neither China nor Russia will go to the front to defend Venezuela. In a real confrontation these countries have much more important priorities than Venezuela, a bankrupt and corrupt country whose only interest today is to be used to goad the US. Any LatAm country on the Pacific is way more important to China than Venezuela, and Venezuela simply too expensive for Russia to support non stop. This one, by the way, turns out to be not such a great ally of Maduro according to the limited supply of Sputnik V vaccine it is sending. But I digress.

Thus it is quite possible that someone inside the regime has realized that now automatic support from Russia or China is not guaranteed. Even Iran and Turkey may not be such reliable friends anymore. Time to shift gears? Maybe it is time to be serious about discussing some sort of arrangement with the US?

Epic lies, epic Covid in Venezuela

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sun, 18 Apr 2021 21:21:00 GMT

As weeks go by the situation in Venezuela gets worse. Reports that reach me are frightening.

A couple of weeks ago I wrote a long tweet thread in Spanish and with new updates I think it is a time to make it a text in english.

Me van a perdonar por esta serie de hilos en matrioshka sobre la incompetencia del régimen frente al Covid, pero cada día hay más barbaridades que agregar.
Hoy tenemos que reportar lo de @DrodriguezVen al rechazar la entrada de #AstraZeneca, bordeando la locura asesina. https://t.co/DaYP9rqZke
— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) March 25, 2021

The thread was taken and retaken as a matryoshka doll as new stuff occurred; so I'll try to give the linear story below.

ONE YEAR AGO/ COVID LANDS

In what has probably been the only good measure taken against the Covid19 pandemia, the regime locked its border like no one else. I suppose that the regime knew it could not face the pandemia and thus its only weapon was to lock up every body so as to have the lowest possible spread. And yet two despicable acts accompanied it. First, it was made an unnecessarily stringent lock up as there was a major gas shortage. Confinement made that shortage less obvious. But what was truly despicable was the regime talking of "imported" cases. In its daily notes the regime mentioned something like this "today we have detected 5 new cases, 4 of them being imported". The meta message was that Covid was sent to us from overseas, that the good Venezuelan people could possibly not have anything to do with it. In the first weeks the number of "imported" cases tended to be the highest of the two. Until eventually the charade had to stop: with airports closed for weeks how could you still talk of "imported cases"?

PANDEMIA CATCHES UP

There is well over a million Venezuelan refugees in Colombia. As Colombia was struck down with Covid, many considered coming back to Venezuela either because doors were shutting in Colombia or because they needed to go back to Venezuela to take care of those left behind: namely the grand parents and the grand kids they were taking care of while the adults tried their luck away. On their return at the border they were mercilessly put in concentration camps, with little food or hygiene to quarantine. And they were subjected to scorn for having left the homeland, and whatnot.

COVAX TIMES

The end of 2020 came with the promise of vaccines, in particular the COVAX program from the WHO to provide dosis at reasonable prices or even free to poor countries so they could at least vaccinate medical personnel; teachers, etc.... But there was a problem with that program: you had to be up to date on your WHO membership and that meant Venezuela would have to pay 11 million dollars late fees/dues dollars to have access. Chavismo is now a constant dead beat, and the WHO is no exception. Instead of sending a check (the regime was at the time talking of buying new army weaponry) the regime tried to use the excuse of the US sanctions as to why they could not pay. Then started the leitmotiv "we cannot vaccinate because the US will not let us do it". Which is of course total despicable bull shit.

CARVATIVIR: whitcraft?

In January came the Carvativir fiasco. As Covid cases kept growing the government was in need to show some initiative. What did they do? Another great business opportunity. Through two unknown guys, with no CV in the hard sciences needed for that, and a brand new company, Maduro announced on TV some mysterious drops bases on plant oils that prevented and cured Covid. The world was soon going to be told about the virtues of Carvativir! And yet here we are still awaiting for the data with bated breath.

OPPOSITION TRIES ITS BEST

The regime excuse for no money was countered by the opposition who offered to ask the US to unfreeze some assets so that vaccines could be bought. An initial agreement was reached with over 300,000 test kits that would be distributed to a list of centers. The kits arrived, the regime took over them, decided to distribute them wherever they liked and.... we never heard of them anymore. Why? Because the regime does not want to publish any real numbers of any medical sistation, and this has happened for many years already. More importantly, they took the tests to be used for the higher up of the regime. Privatized so to speak. Bloomberg reports that only 3,000 or so results were reported. No word on the 300,000 other tests. This will have grave consequences on the willingness of donors in the future since trust is lost to unrefrained cronyism and absolute irresponsibility.

FOR THE REGIME ALL IS BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY

Before I go on it is important to understand what is going on with the regime on Covid matters

Denial. Numbers can never be published. It is not happening to us. The US invented it.
All must be controlled by the regime. Thus any help from any donor has to be given to regime personnel to do as it pleases, namely distribution as pro regime propaganda.
The opposition is the great villain: any initiative0 or offer of collaboration by the opposition must be refused, sabotaged and what not.
And greed, so much greed. One recent example is that a new laboratory without any track record on medical analisis and less on Covid got the exclusive privilege to offer mandatory COVID PCR test to incoming travellers who must pay 60$ IN CASH at arrival at the airport, regardless if they did a test before boarding, if they have been vaccinated, etc. 60 USD in cash, no credit card, no local currency, greenbacks or nothing.

So it should not come as a surprise that we have the first reports of blackmarket vials of vaccines who can come only out of the doses already entering the country under strict regime control.

SPUTNIK V COMETH

The vaccine era finally arrived and started with the Russians testing their Sputnik vaccine on Venezuelans. Nothing has been published about the results, that I know of. But I also know first hand that some testing was seriously made from a scientist friend that received a dose. OK, so lets give the benefit of the doubt here. What is not to be doubted is that when the first lot of Sputnik came for actual vaccination the priorities were clearly announced by the regime: security personnel AND medical personnel, named in second. There was a brief scandal when we learned that the representatives of the illegal national assembly elected in December 2020 were among the first ones to be vaccinated. Some were dumb enough to show their selfies of the moment until told to remove them from social media fast. But Maduro was dumb and crass enough to brag on TV that he did get his shots... Meanwhile doctors and nurses were left without vaccine, scavenging for soap and masks.

Ah! I was forgetting! 95% of Cuban personnel in Venezuela is already vaccinated, ahead of Venezuelan doctors. That is what happens to you when you accept to become a colony..... Note: vaccinated NOT by the alleged Cuban vaccines in development but by the regime purchased ones.

THE HOI POLOI STARTS GETTING SOME

Eventually the regime felt the need to vaccinate some besides the generals and Maduro's entourage. So we were treated to the first videos of elderly being called to get vaccinated. And propaganda it was......

In this thread I explained how 529 doses of Sputnik were distributed only to those who owned a "carnet de la patria". That is, if you are not chavista or have not surrendered to chavismo, you get no vaccine. Think about this for a minute.....

We all knew the vaccination of Venezuelan people would only happen as long as the regime could gain political advantage from it. This video from "journalist" @YndiTorregrosa shows you how far the regime will go for its propaganda and social control. https://t.co/oCq8qsHnL9
— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) April 10, 2021

ASTRA ZENECA BANNED

Russian and dubious Chinese vaccines are arriving dropwise. COVAX worked out and agreement between the regime and the opposition to bring in Astra Zeneca AND equipment for the logistic process in distributing the vaccines. Yes, that is right, the current situation of Venezuela requires that in addition of bringing in vaccines donors should also bring in refrigerators, power plants and what not since Venezuela cannot even guarantee enough electrical power. No Pfizer ever here. Well, Venezuela was going to receive over 10 million doses of Astra Zeneca vaccine, the easiest one to handle and that could cover at least the main cities, ALL medical and teaching personnel and the elderly. At the last minute Maduro used the excuse of the troubles with AstraZeneca to ban it outright and announce that it would be substituted by the Cuban ones, not even in Phase III testing, that is, improper to massive vaccination (amen on whether Cuba can produce enough of them).

The opposition was prompt in denouncing the regime who prefers to see thousand more die of the virus than to accept that the opposition gets any credit in the fight against the pandemia.

THE SCARLETT LETTER

Meanwhile as vaccines are delayed, the pandemia advances. A creative chavista mayor decided to make it public and notorious to identify the homes of those who had a Covid case inside.... Words fail me on that one.......

One of the primitive mayors of my home state.
Any home in Sucre were a #covid case is reported will be plastered with a notice. Any attempt at removing will mean removal from the regime handouts programs, essential in impoverished Sucre county.#BringInYourInnerFascist https://t.co/PgizBWJjuC
— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) April 7, 2021

IT IS FREE ONLY IN VENEZUELA

The lies of the regime are so linked that you need new ones daily to try to escape being exposed as a liar yesterday. The latest atrocious lie comes from Vice Delcy who tells on national TV that only Venezuela gives vaccines for free while infamous capitalist countries like the US demand payment. Once again, in front of such blatant lies I remain speechless.... Though I can point out that it does not matter whether vaccines are free in Venezuela since there are none to be found.....

AND MORE DISASTERS

I need to end this entry. There is so much more to say. El Pais of Spain has an excellent summary of recent problems which should tell the regime that the world is watching the crimes it is committing. Among those:

The private business organization FEDECAMARAS offered the regime to pay and bring in vaccines for its own workers. It even accepted a fee of 20% cut of these vaccines for the regime at its discretionary use. Yes, that is right, private enterprise would pay for the vaccines of its employees and their family and pay for an extra big chunk of vaccines for a regime that should be vaccinating all for free. The regime refused.
El Pais is worried about the sudden desperate search for oxygen in Venezuela. Social media is awash with people looking for oxygen tanks anywhere at any cost. That is a sure sigh that the Covid economic is now out of control in Venezuela. And the lack of oxygen supplies is simply impossible to solve. Even less by the regime.
El Pais also wonders how come that since Russia and China are supposedly close allies they are not sending as many vaccine doses as they are sending elsewhere.

SO?

Time to stop for today. Just a few thoughts about the nastiness and why the regime is handling so badly the epidemic in Venezuela.

The first thing that strikes us is the secrecy about it all, the great length the regime takes to hide the tragedy. Not only numbers now come from independent medical observers, and well, well above those of the regime, but we are not told about the mass burials in unmarked graves, the near impossibility that crematorium have in processing all the demands they receive as Covid death are cremated, not buried. I know of two cases from people relatively close who had loved ones die and all the travails they had to endure to recover the bodies (and I will spare you the illness stories and how they ended up in public hospitals or the Poliedro which are now little more that thanatoriums).

The second striking thing is that the pandemia is all about politics. The regime absolute refusal to get help from the opposition and international donors is simply put genocidal. The regime pretends that all be given to them, all sanctions lifted, etc. while at the same time it demonstrates once and again its incompetence, its sectarism, the waste it would be if by chance donors would be foolish enough to cave in their demands. That is, give in or not to the regime, it is clear that the death toll will be similar.

Another damning thing is the extremely poor scientific and medical means of the regime. From inventing Carvativir to ban Astra Zeneca for problems irrelevant for the current Venezuelan health system YOU KNOW that those in charge of the pandemia have fucking no idea of what they are doing. Explanation? Those in charge are political hacks who would not know if an astrazeneca beast from an oxygen diving gear.

These are crimes against humanity that need to be documented for future use.

Más de 73 toneladas de #Oro de #Venezuela salieron en 2018 rumbo a #Dubai y #Turquía sin la reglamentaria aprobación de la Asamblea Nacional

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 16 Apr 2021 23:07:53 GMT

Más de 73 toneladas de oro de Venezuela salieron en 33 vuelos rumbo a Dubai y Turquía en 2018 - Runrun 20-25 minutes BCV vendió 73,2...

Lealo todo en el MasterBlog en Español http://masterblogenespanol.blogspot.com/

¿Es posible la #Privatización de #PDVSA?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 16 Apr 2021 23:04:30 GMT

Según la OPEP, la capacidad actual de la empresa petrolera es de 761 mil barriles al día, 1,3 millones menos en comparación a 2017 La estatal venezolana fue sancionada por la Oficina de...

Lealo todo en el MasterBlog en Español http://masterblogenespanol.blogspot.com/

¿A dónde se fue aquella #Venezuela de nuestra infancia?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 16 Apr 2021 23:03:00 GMT

@media print { body { margin: 2mm 9mm; } .original-url { display: none; } #article .float.left {...

Lealo todo en el MasterBlog en Español http://masterblogenespanol.blogspot.com/

The sysiphean Venezuelan opposition

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sun, 28 Feb 2021 10:45:00 GMT

Now that we covered in last post the real problem in Venezuela, the economy, and that we have examined the situation of the opposition since December 2020, we can finally look at what can the Venezuelan opposition do. If you are busy and do not want to read it all, here is the executive summary: precious little.

What is that previous little, which as we shall see is already quite herculean?

The first thing is that the opposition needs to find a way to get some real unity of command. This has become an issue as more hints are coming from its major backers, USA and EU, whose patience may run thin. The message is that without a minimum of unity there is nothing they can do to help. And beware: the hidden message is that if the opposition is useless and helpless these countries might accept to try to find some sort of arrangement with Maduro.

How can such a reunification of the opposition be reached? The good news is that of the three branches of the opposition 2 are on their way to extinction. The collaborationist side of the opposition has managed in a short month to lose whatever credibility they may have enjoyed. Not only they got trounced in December 2020, but their representatives receiving this week the precious few Sputnik vaccines available BEFORE medical personnel and risk groups, has shown that they are just a small appendage of the regime. Unity can ignore them.

Another that counts little now is the radical wing that awaited for years for Trump to send the Marines. It did not happen and its main spokesperson, Maria Corina Machado, has grown rather silent these days. We cannot ignore here completely as the radical cohort can do some damage on media. Yet there is still a need to find a way to take into account MCM, though not under her terms, if she has any sense of reality left.

This leaves us with the third leg, the in/famous G4, the group of major parties that were the core of the opposition and who created Guaido. Why this experiment failed is not the point here, too late to even cry about it. Furthermore, the historic of its failures is not very helpful to define a new strategy in the current context. But the G4 is not the G4 anymore. Of the four parties, UNT, AD, PJ and VP one would be hard pressed to decide which one has still some real support across the country. I think that AD fares the best, which is not saying much. VP has gone from high to low with the failed antics of Leopoldo Lopez and the tied hands of Guaido. PJ? Does it still exist? UNT? Did it ever exist?

The problem of the G4 is not really which G is real. The problem of the G4 is that too many want to be the head honcho without the merits or the persuasion. There is a war still going on between Capriles and Lopez, with misplaced ambition by Rosales and Ramos Allup, not forgetting that Guaido may have his own plans now. Some other nereids would like very much to be on second position for the president's job. And certainly there is MCM lurking. As long as this cohort of characters do not find a way to check their individual ambitions and rally behind a single voice, no unity will be possible.

How can this happen? I suggest two things. One is for the international allies to push and go as far as designating, discreetly of course, one voice. Another one is to organize a primary of sorts. We do not need to name a leader outright but electing a representation of the opposition in some sort of opposition assembly could help. But all of these folks are too afraid to count themselves least they are revealed for the non entities that some have become.

There is also an obvious way: to name a leader that promises to accept not to run when elections finally come. Such a leader will of course have an inherent weakness: who would be the interest in following a leader with an expiration date? But on the other hand it would be a ready made leader for an eventual transition while the opposition sorts out how to select the candidate for the first post Chavez full presidential term.

The opposition has not failed at getting together behind a leader. It happened with Capriles in 2013. With Rosales 6 years earlier. With Guaido 2 years ago. But the opposition was also prompt in destroying these leaders once problems arose. It should try once again. Are there other options?

If we assume that the opposition can find a single leadership, or at least a responsive structure, it needs also to decide on a crucial thing: go for the regional elections. But that is matter for a full post, coming soon.

The economy: road block to transition

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Tue, 23 Feb 2021 14:07:00 GMT

Time is running out before Venezuela becomes a failed state. It is true that a failed/war-destroyed state can be rebuilt, but it takes a long time, it takes a powerful political center, it takes outside help, or at the very least no more meddling. Before writing about any possible political solution we need to discuss the distressed economy and how difficult it would be to restart it.

When Maduro was elected in 2013 he could have taken a few token measures that would have avoided the extent of the crisis today. He did not, and took even additional wrong steps. Then this mismanagement was magnified through a nasty political crisis and recently US sanctions.

The root of the economical crisis comes way back. Even before Chavez. In a way we could say that Chavez invented no new deleterious practice: he just magnified them to unsuspected levels. It is too long to review that descent into economical hell, books have already been written about it. Let's just look at today's situation.

The very first problem is the legal and security limbo of Venezuela. Today any entrepreneur, any company that has not yet closed its door must face a whole set of issues. Large expenses just to ensure the security at workplace and transportation/distribution of goods. Legal fees galore to face the repressive nature of the fiscal system. The ever present risk of expropriation without compensation. The constant harassment from extorsion. And more. Just on that aspect we can truly talk of a fight for survival, and thus thinking about expansion requires a serious leap of faith.

The main day to day concern is the destroyed infrastructure. There is no reliable supply of electricity and water. There is considerable difficulty in finding spare parts, motor fuel, etc. Ruined roads make transportation difficult. How can you program a production plan when you do not whether you will have light all day? Many business have had to invest heavily on their own generation plant, on large water tanks. Lots of places had to resort to dig water wells if they detected, luckily, decent ground water. These are forced investments that are not used to improve training and tools.

And what about your people? Emigration and recession have created havoc with human resources. It is difficult today to retain your workers when your company cannot manage significant resources in a country devoured by hyperinflation and production problems. And to hire new people is even more difficult: even if you can offer a decent dollarized paycheck there is simply precious few available candidates at the level you need.

And what about business environment? Some point out at the reactivation of commerce in Caracas and a very few other spots as a sure sign that the worst is behind and that recovery is on the way. Far from it!! The "recovery" we see and apparently not understood by many is an economy of money laundering. It is very simple: a lot of the corrupt officials and associates of the regime have stolen hundreds of millions of dollars (1). The problem is that an increasing number of them are being tracked abroad and have had quite significant sums blocked. So, before financial police take away more they are bringing some back to Venezuela and invest them in three ways. One is using government contact to obtain difficult to get goods at low prices, that is, material to build luxury business buildings in selected areas, office buildings that remain empty. The other one is to buy business on difficulty for cheap, or more recently signing contracts with the regime for its bankrupt expropriations which amount to a hidden privatization.

The third way is the most obvious: the economy of "bodegon" and notorious parties. These unfortunate souls forced to live in impoverished Venezuela have decided to live well and not suffer the consequences of their previous depredation. So, they pick up adequate fronts and open fancy grocery stores, bodegones, which at exorbitant prices for the hoi polloi cater to their luxury tastes. Quite clearly we could think that brand new fancy buildings at Las Mercedes o La Castellana, a few fancy shops carrying champagne on their shelves give the impression of prosperity. The more so that their employees get paid with a few dollars and that Venezuelans in exile who can send dollars to help their relatives. So yes, there is a circulation of dollars that stimulates some the economy, but it is a Potemkin village.

All the new "dollarized" economy is a mirage. What you see are dollars getting inside Venezuela and used to import goods or build stuff with no productive value. Basically the business that are needed to produce food, medicine, industrial products are not producing much more than two years ago, and have neither the incentive nor the means to relaunch their business. These laundered investments are not going where they should go.

The root of the problem is that the regime and its cronies have had control of currency exchange since 2003. Over the years they have built their fortune over the looting of the country. And they do not want to relinquish that control. They also do not have any inkling of what an entrepreneur does. This is at the root of the chavista regime, and goes a long way to explain how their greed promoted crime and drug trafficking. Their looting going unpunished certainly helped them into believing that other crimes would also go unpunished.

To start a political transition also requires a change in the economic practices of the country, a return to a normal model. Yet, this would mean for the regime to loosen up the nook around the private sector neck, which can only be done with a political relaxation. The regime has too many vested interests, too many compromissions. Is it possible to reopen separately the economy and freedom?

_____________________________________________________

1) The amounts stolen will probably be never calculated exactly since sometimes waste and corruption can get mixed up. Yet estimates of 400 billion have been advanced.

The end of the Venezuelan opposition, as we knew it

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Wed, 03 Feb 2021 19:57:00 GMT

It is time to write that dreaded post, the funeral eulogy of the Venezuelan opposition as we knew it. Something else will come someday for sure but at this point in my life I wonder whether I should care, to tell you the truth.

Going through the catalogue of all of its failures is rather useless: the political conditions of the country have so changed that there are few lessons we could gain from spreading the blame around. Instead let's focus on the losers (there are no winners, before you ask).

The first loser, the obvious one for me anyway, is Maria Corina Machado. Her stand was simple, based on her "moral high ground" it implied to forbid any negotiation with the regime. Maybe she was right, but the only result of that was the creation of a cohort of fanatics that devastated social media with various forms of character assassination. Her position was untenable since it relied exclusively on some form of foreign intervention. But Trump is gone; the Marines did not come, nor will they come in the foreseeable future. Now what for her and her cohort? There are signs that she may want to talk again to some other people inside the opposition but as we say in Venezuela chivo que se devuelve se desnuca (loosely: a goat that turns her head back will break her neck). Whatever it is, the damage she did is there to stay.

The next loser, in my view, is la mesita, that hodgepodge of political nullities who believed that breaking away from the opposition to negotiate with the regime would bring dividends (1). Nothing of the sort happened. In the end, for all their self-humiliation they got only a few seats in the nNA (2), and some of those on dubious ways since the regime needs to keep some useful fools on board. In short, if anyone followed them it was a scant few disgusted chavistas with Maduro and some opposition that do not agree with the real majority one but not necessarily with la mesita. Unfortunately they are not learning their lesson and instead they are getting closer to the regime! An example is from Avanzada Progresista who berated the European Parliament decision to support Guaido. Maybe, but the language used is to sink Guaido. No word on their dismal score on December 2020 in spite of all of their compromissions...

Then we reach Guaido, the G4, Capriles and Leopoldo. Quite a snake pit that became over the years since every one had its own agenda and the only thing they could agree on was what not to do. About what to do, we heard little. Let's go by parts.

Guaido was the unexpected hero. He did what he could but was hampered along by his inexperience and the blockade of the G4. He did his best but never managed to be his own man and now I feel sorry for him as they are going to make him the scapegoat. These days, from social media you even read oppo crazies that hate him more than Maduro and would love this one to send Guaido to jail......

The G4 was the group of the 4 major opposition parties. They decided to lead the opposition actions because one of the obvious problems of previous attempts was the atomization of this one (which caused the tinies to form la mesita, offended that they were not considered equal to, say, AD). But it did not work out anyway as each of the 4 only approved actions that did not hurt their interests. The result was missed opportunities, contradictory positions, etc.... but the main fault for me is that they never quite knew what to do when they scored a point, but worse, they never had a plan B for when the point was lost.

Capriles and Lopez can be discussed together because their main responsibility was an ego war. Such an ego pushed Capriles to start negotiating last year with the regime just to pull back and lose whatever credibility he had left. Lopez ego trip was assuming that since one of his men, Guaido, was put into preeminence that gave him license to run the opposition. It did not and paralyzed it further.

There are more that can be finger pointed, in particular the abstention strategy which had served its purpose long ago and was NEVER accompanied by a "what next?" once people stayed at home.

I am really pessimistic. I am afraid the game is over. The regime has all what it needs to survive. And the ruthlessness to do what it takes. Five years of social crisis have only resulted in more repression, more control, and a blanket bombing of the opposition leadership. What could at this point push people to riot and overthrow the regime? What will bring the army to a breaking point? Meanwhile the international view seems unsurprisingly to move away from the opposition current leadership. For example Guaido is being dropped by the EU who sees him now just as one of the opposition leaders. The US keep recognizing him because, well, Biden has bigger fish to fry right now. That the "Lima group" recognizes X or Y is irrelevant as the group itself has become irrelevant. If the opposition does not pull its act together soon the other countries will decide to deal on their own directly with the regime, demanding stability more than anything else; though with the regime they'll never get it.

It it all over? Maybe not quite but that will be for a future text.

______________________________

1) la mesita is a reunion of tiny parties and failed political agendas that decided they were not properly heard inside the opposition and went their own way. To naught. They pretended to retake on negotiations at la mesa de negociacion, hence mesita, an appellation that enrages them but verified every single day.

2) nNA = novel National Assembly, for that thing elected on December 6 2020 that serves as parliament rubber stamp for the regime.

Chavismo reshifting roles

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sat, 30 Jan 2021 16:04:00 GMT

Now that we have a novel National Assembly, who is speaking for chavismo? (1)

One "surprise" is that Jorge Rodriguez is the new chair of the nNA. Well, not that much of a surprise since he was sent to run while he was occupying high positions inside the chavista nomenklatura. He has been mentioned enough in this blog so I will not review his extended life serving chavismo. From an alleged impartial electoral umpire in the early 2000 elections he ended up as Vice President of Chavez in the many positions he occupied. He, and his sister currently the vice president (2), are now the main operators of Maduro, sort of representing the civilian side of chavismo.

Does that mean J.R. has his own power base, as many observers think? Not at all for me. That JR is put forward means that Maduro has more power than before and uses JR to further his agenda. For all their skills the evil Rodriguez siblings have no real political base they can call their own. They are the civilian image of the regime, those that are sent for negotiations and the like where you need people that know how to behave, holding a minimum of general education (3).

Yet JR appointment meant Diosdado Cabello was apparently relegated to majority whip when all expected him to recover the chair he lost in 2015. Does it mean Diosdado star is fading? Probably some but not that much. First, he retains influence within the army. Second he is the manager of the chavista party, PSUV. Third, he represents quite a sector of nouveau riche originating from corruption. And fourth, if drug trafficking has direct influence in the power structure, he would be one of their voices. Dismissing Cabello is way too early. A regime in search of oxygen cannot promote Cabello who has opposed and sabotaged any velleity of negotiation.

When we ponder the fate of Diosdado we cannot forget that chavismo has a leninist, communist party structure and management. Those who survived or grew in it for the past 20 years know that and obey without fault. Yes, there are leaks. Yes there is infighting. But they are kept at a minimum and when election time comes the candidates are decided way up and all rally behind them. This structure is also necessary for survival when you have become a gang of looting politicians and narcotraffickers. The dreaded domino effect if one side were to fall guarantees that all sides will keep parcels of power as long as in the end all agree and support the front formula. Thus we can even consider that the "demotion" to majority whip is in fact a tactical move as Diosdado is an unpresentable leader for a regime in need of some type of facelift for future necessary negotiations. Diosdado cannot go and meet US or EU delegations, JR can, still.

We can thus understand one of the latest moves of the regime sending JR to meet Fedecamaras and ask them for help to deal with the Covid19 crisis. We get pictures that we would have never expected: the regime going to the seat of the private enterprise organization for talks. For one reason JR was not in the forefront of the disastrous political conditions used to manage the economy; he may have supported the massive expropriations for example but it was not on his visiting card. Certainly Fedecamaras, the culprit of all evils in chavista lore, was more embarrassed than pleased by that visit. But since private enterprise is on survival mode if the regime is willing to offer some oxygen, why not "welcome" them... yet the regime cannot help but be itself and kill on one hand what it seems to offer on the other. Of that meeting a result was to create yet another subcommission which includes "nicolasito", the son of Maduro himself. Of his educational background we know little, of his economic skills less, but we already know quite a lot about his shady financial deals.

We do not know whether the regime is preparing in nicolasito the successor of Maduro. It should have been from the Chavez family following a certain East Asian country script; but the Chavez family is quietly enjoying their loot share and has been exceedingly discreet. We thus have a modified set of actors.

Maduro is the front man, tightly monitored by his wife, Cilia Flores. Over time his own political base within the party must have grown some, but it certainly is not very large: the PSUV can make and read polls and Maduro is nearly universally rejected. But Maduro is there, the direct proconsul of Cuba, the front man, the image of regime "stability". That is his real share of power.

A slice of Maduro power is the Rodriguez siblings. They are convenient operators, used by any faction of the regime, as needed. Their power originates in that they are the only civilians that have an idea on how the outside world function even if their judgement is clouded by ideology and resentment.

Diosdado Cabello has been losing ground. First inside the army as the people he helped and promoted are going into retirement by law. Nobody knows for sure how influent he is in the new classes. But Diosdado has real following inside chavismo for his vulgar but popular bluntness. He is the only one who still has on TV a popular show that destroys anything it decides to destroy. He also used to be the representative of sorts of the "derecha endogena", endogenous right wing, which was the people that gained immense wealth out of corruption, against the commie ideals of the bolivarian revolution. It seems that part of that support has moved towards Maduro or the army as in an era of less cash the army is less inclined to share.

The army has managed to retain Padrino way past his retirement age. He seems to have become the inamovible defense minister, a position that is held on a rotation basis among army higher officers on an annual basis. He has been there for years now to everyone's surprise. But how strong is his power share. Is he really the one holding the army together? Does it control it as we know that the feared Cuban surveillance skills know whatever happens in side and snuff fast any remote possibility of conspiracy? Or is he just the face of the army now become a shady business center? Whatever it is the army through its repressive branches are the ones who still make possible the regime and thus must be counted as an extended support for Maduro. Not Maduro's power as he must respond to the army, but as what justifies his hold on office.

But there is another power that does not have a visible face: rampant crime, militia and colectivos. Crime has become one of the pillars of the regime for the single reason of symbiosis. The regime has lost the will and capacity to control crime. Consequently crime runs rampant in some areas where the regime has given up any pretense of control. We thus have now mini states were gang organizations are the true rulers. Nobody enters without reasons, even less the armed forces though on occasion we do have major warfare between state security and gangs. But the gangs that collaborate politically with the regime and do not go too far in their criminal activities remain safe in their strongholds. Feudalism of the XXI century....

Colectivos are an elaborated example of these new structures, powerful enough to operate free rein, but not enough to impose their will outside of their areas of competence, so to speak. I already wrote a post on them in 2014. Since then they have prospered further and became actual parcels of power for secondary regime characters like Bernal who for the time being is behind Diosdado. But his influence/control on some colectivos make him someone who on his own right cannot be ignored.

We can end this with Iris Varela who has been sent from years as minister of jails to second vice president of the nNA. She is famous for her selfies with notorious criminals and for not solving the overcrowding and other jail problems. But she is also suspected of having deliberately allowed for the transformation of certain jails in yet another kind of feudal grants. Some jails are famous for organizing all sorts of traffick, from kidnapping and ransom to open road hijacks of food trucks for resale, sometimes at the very door of the jail. Why has she been transferred is perhaps the lone surprise in leadership moves. Has the gang system reached such might tha they decided to have their own seat at the big table? Did she get tired? Fired? Is she the radical caution for a regime going back to wild capitalism and negotiations?

There has been no face lift of chavismo, just some slight shifts which are expected to fool future negotiators. Yet, there is a sense that something may be going on. After the purges of the old chavista guard maybe new purges are in the horizon.

________________________________________

1) I use the novel adjective for National Assembly because it is illegitimate and it is not recognized by democratic countrie;s and yet there we are.

2) Remember that vice president in Venezuela is by appointment, with heavy rotation and as such is just the principal minister.

3) The Rodriguez siblings are the children of a leftist guerrilla that was killed in detention. They consider that justice was never fully done and that became their life obsession, to avenge their father. They have been on revenge mode ever since and nothing ever will satisfy them. Yet among chavismo they are among the few, he at least as a psychiatrist, who have some reasonable level of cultural education. I personally consider him as a psychopath and she as a sociopath. And I have talked about them with shrinks reaching the same diagnostic....

Carvativir as the symbol of Covid Maduro's failure

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Fri, 29 Jan 2021 15:25:00 GMT

It is now common knowledge that Venezuela's dealings with Covid19 have been a failure. The best that can be said is that the regime has bet secretly on herd immunity because, well, there is nothing else the regime can do.

And yet in the midst of this abject failure to preserve the health of Venezuelans, the regime manages to outdo itself in its abjectness. Now Maduro on TV has revealed himself a snake oil promoter. Rarely I have been as angry at the regime than after seeing the clip below.

Well, against his incapacity to deal with COVID and much less to vaccinate the country @NicolasMaduro has decided to sell snake oil. With "carvativir" he claims that 10 drops under your tongue every 4 hours will kill 100% of the coronavirus.
Let's delve: https://t.co/0CpLkxz0Eb pic.twitter.com/Rms6HYcN8v
— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) January 25, 2021

What is behind all of that charade?

Maduro is promoting what we have seen in so many denial and conspiracy theories about Covid: an unproven herbal concoction as the miracle cure for Covid. Ten drops under your tongue, every 4 hours. Voilà. And to promote the miraculous aspect he throws in Jose Gregorio Hernandez, a reluctantly future saint of the Catholic Church. We do not know what is inside, how it has been tested, if it can be produced in large amounts, if it has secondary effect, nothing. But if you read the loving replies of chavistas to Maduro's announcement tweet you will read an act of faith, a disdain for science and even a belief that science must bend to ideology. We are back to Stalin and Lyssenko. Even the chosen name is a manipulation: Carvativir, to link it to sophisticated antiviral agents that took years to create.

Maduro has nothing else to offer. Public hospitals cannot deal with the situation. They do not even have enough running water to allow for the basic anti covid hygiene practices. Medical personnel has been so lacking of protection that its unofficial count of deceased has amply passed the 300 mark . Statistics are, of course, unreliable: the opposition claims that the death toll is at the very least double what the regime says. So unreliable statistics are that some international world counting sites do not include Venezuelan numbers, or worse show Venezuela as a most successful country against Covid.

There is, as could be expected, no serious plan on vaccines. And even less of a belief that the regime could carry it successfully. A mere simple PAHO Covid test offer upon which, a true miracle this one, the regime and the opposition had agreed upon was promptly rerouted by the regime on arrival. And was not carried properly anyway with unbelievable delays! Imagine if vaccines at -70°C had to be managed, even just for Caracas! The regime has tried to use the excuse of Covid to recover some of the funds frozen because of sanctions. But the opposition has refused to hand them to the regime on account of the regime proven incompetence and corruption. However the opposition accepts that the funds be used by international independent agencies which the regime refuses point blank: any thing for el pueblo must come from the hands of the regime. Period.

At any rate, using Pfizer or Moderna Covid vaccines is not possible in Venezuela under the current logistic nightmare, starting with frequent power outages. Barely Caracas could be considered for those vaccines, preferably Moderna at -20°C. The only thing we have heard from the regime is for an eventual deal for the Russian SputnikV. In fact Maduro blithely offered Venezuelans last year as guinea pigs for their phase III studies of which, of course, we know nothing of the results. Will Maduro pay for enough vaccines? Does he want to, really? Even at this typing I do not know whether the chinese vaccines are considered...... However I am sure the evil capitalist Pfizer, Moderna and Astra Zeneca are ruled out, except perhaps secretly for the corrupt elite.

A picture I never expected!

The disarray must be such that Jorge Rodriguez, the chair of the novel National Assembly has done the unthinkable: he held a meeting with the private sector association, FEDECAMARAS, to see in which ways the private sector could help on vaccination campaigns. The socialist regime held a meeting with the reviled private sector to seek help, you read it right. Even reading the news I have trouble believing it.... Though the real intentions can easily be seen: in exchange of who knows what the regime wants Fedecamaras to caution the take over of frozen funds away from the opposition: whatever Fedecamaras does it will have to be on the supervision of the health ministry, normal in a normal country but irresponsible in Venezuela.

Meanwhile, if you are in Venezuela take your ten drops and pray to Jose Gregorio.

Biden's administration will have to face Maduro's regime

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Wed, 20 Jan 2021 19:12:00 GMT

As I type Biden is about to be sworn in and of course I am planning to watch it if French TV broadcasts it. One of the reasons that motivates me is that in the first hearings for his cabinet positions his nominees without a fault are quite willing to continue some of Trump's policies. Sure, the means and ways will differ here and there but on important questions such as the enmity of China or the Middle East moves, nothing much will change. And best of all Secretary of state nominee Blinken has said in his hearing that the incoming administration will recognize the interim government of Guaido and the remains of the National Assembly elected in 2015, considered the last democratically elected branch of government.

Nobody should be surprised: there is such a thing in serious countries as the interests of the State and those interests are bipartisan. The policy against an invasive and unfair China concerns both Democrats and Republicans. A good application example is the departing recognition by Pompeo of Uyghur veiled genocide in China is prime exemple. China will be upset and will try to retaliate but the incoming Biden people will put the blame on Pompeo while not changing the decision. And Pompeo will be fine with that because it serves the supreme interests of the country. No matter what a crazy supporter of Trump he may have been, enough voices within the GOP have been telling him to do so. Same thing for the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital. The democrats did not like it but Biden will leave the embassy in Jerusalem. No need to pick a fight over that, a done deed putting to rest a thorny issue as keeping the embassy in Tel Aviv did not help in solving the conflict.

Same thing with Venezuela. European Union failed to clearly endorse the continuing Guaido expired mandate while recognizing him as opposition leader. But Europe has no "state" interests in Venezuela the way the US has. Best to start by recognizing the status quo, recognize Guaido and keep at the very least current sanctions. Then, once in office, once all dossiers are examined by the new administration then it will be time to rebuild an anti Maduro coalition and modify what needs to be modified.

These overriding "state interests" is something absolutely lost for chavismo. Long ago they have ditched professional career diplomats. Venezuelan foreign policy has become a mere promotion of the bolivarian fraud and Chavez ego. And in recent years Venezuela's foreign policy, so to speak, is on survival mode, selling state interests to whomever protects best its nomenklatura from international pursuits. The paradox is that the dictatorships that support Maduro, be they Russia or China, do have an acute sense of their own state interests. For them Venezuela is a useful foil against the US objectives.

For the US Venezuela is much more than a nuisance. Drug trafficking goes a lot through Venezuela. The regime protects and sponsors terrorist organizations like the Colombian FARC and ELN. Its influence on all sorts of anti system groups across Latin America is notorious. The tremendous corruption inside of Venezuela spilling over the continent through massive money laundering schemes. Worst or all is how blithely Venezuela's regime sends millions of migrants across Latin America straining countries with narrow possibilities to deal with such a refugee wave. In short, Venezuela is a destabilizing factor over the whole continental expanse and that is not in the interests of the US of A.

The regime does not understand that. Jorge Rodriguez, a main operator for Maduro and the new head of the overwhelming chavista novel assembly, gave his first interview as chair. In it he offers to the US in exchange for dropping sanctions to free a handful of US citizen prisoners and reopening business for US oil companies. Blackmail/cash-promises for forgetting all of the nefarious actions from Venezuela. The regime presents itself as the victim, with no need for corrective actions. And worse, they think they are about to fool the Biden administration. They do, trust me.

But times have changed. The US went through the Trump years and too many taboos have been broken. The Biden team is more likely to act through broad coalitions, perhaps with weaker measures but enforced ones. But it will act without the kowtowing of the Obama years. A good starting point is to force other LatAm countries to take real actions against the regime. One of the reason Trump sanctions did not have the desired effect is that too many LatAm countries have been unwilling to take action. Even Bolsonaro has not gone much further than break relations and big words. We need these countries to actively pursue those inside that made deals with the operators of the Venezuelan regime. A little bit of blackmail from the US could help along.

And there is of course the most important and needed confrontation: what to do against Cuba which is the organizer of the regime. Without forgetting the enablers in Russia and China. Trump's people never faced Russia over Venezuela. Will Biden do so? Obama got conned by Cuba. Will Biden stumble over that same stone again?

Same old, same old for chavismo?

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Mon, 11 Jan 2021 14:22:00 GMT

So, chavo/madurismo has all in its hands (1). No Venezuelan government in history had so many levers of power in its hands. All the formal state institutions are now controlled by the regime except a handful of state houses and town halls. But those are restricted on their means, heavily supervised and thus almost insignificant in their potential actions. What makes this one more of a dictatorship than any past one is the complete control on press and media, and the economic control that no government in Venezuela ever had. That these controls broke the country is another matter, though it happened because of these controls.

However for the regime the conquest is not complete enough and the novel assembly has put as it priority to quell what is left. The priority is not solving the awful economic and health crisis, the priority is to close internet media, harass NGO, go after the remainder of the opposition leadership not yet in jail or exiled. It already started and more is in store. For example barely seated as third chair of the assembly Iris Varela has repeated her old promise: seize the properties of those that are not in Venezuela anymore. Now she may have the means to execute that promise.

Totalitarian regimes cannot help themselves. It is inherent to them to discriminate, sow discord, repress, invent ever new enemies, etc, etc. Castrist originated chavismo cannot escape that condition. Even when all opposition will be erased, even when no private property will be left, save for those of members of the regime something new will come up, most likely inside purges Moscow trial like. Some of this are already taking places against those who abandoned ship, treated more harshly than opposition hostages.

That democratic international opinion is against the regime they do not care anymore. That there is an investigation is going at the Hague international court against some of the regime higher up is of little concern. That the support of Cuba, Russia and Iran comes at the price of accepted slavery is just what you need to pay to remain in office. The regime is inured to this, they got used to this, they may even toast to this.

Yet......

As a narco kleptocracy the dictatorship heroes want to enjoy the loot they gathered, preferably not in Venezuela. This, they can do no more. In some cases not even their families. Also, it cannot fail to escape them, at least the military in charge of repression that more and more repression is needed as hunger is now the daily routine for a majority of Venezuelans. Never mind the Covid situation here where the regime has basically given up, without plans for a massive vaccination program.

That is the double Achilles's heel of the regime, the worsening situation and the jail feeling inside Venezuela for the elite. How to solve that?

The solution would be extremely simple: hold free and fair elections and all sanctions will be lifted, confidence and investors will return, travel to party on will resume. But that means chavismo will have to give up large amounts of power. This is THE NO-NO for most of the chavista elite. But the reality is there and needs to be dealt with since repression may not be enough. Now that the regime has no more enemies able to challenge it in the near future the temptation to settle publicly internal scores will rise. The chavista factions notable for their leninist unity against the opposition may find it more difficult to keep that unity. In particular for the army who will be called increasingly to help in repression. The Soviet Union had developed an institutionality ad hoc. A poor institutionality, certainly, but one where all had their place: KGB, Red army, sovietes, Party, universities. Chavismo has been unable to build anything. Its model is more like Cuba who long ago gave up the idea of pretending to be a state...... But if Cuba so far as avoided the fate of "failed state" this may not be true anymore for Venezuela.

And this is the regime problem: It dominates but it does not rule. Nothing functions anymore in Venezuela. The government is unable to offer a minimum of public services. It does not even pretend to do something about hyperinflation. Nothing. The regime seems to have abdicated its state functions. All is improvisation. (2)

It remains to be seen how long chavismo will tolerate its own dysfunction now that there is no real enemy in front..

_________________________________

1) I think that we should start making a distinction between today's chavismo and what it was, say, in the early past decade. Not that one was better than the other: they were equally awful in their intention, but the results are harvested by Maduro. This has turned the regime way uglier, crossed new lines.

2) This decomposition of the state, need it be recalled, predates the first international sanctions. It has been years that there has been electrical power outages, problems in water supplies, insecurity, etc.... Sanctions did not help of course, but the regime is not shy at announcing certain type of unnecessary purchases or sending humanitarian help for propaganda purposes.

The NO posts

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sat, 09 Jan 2021 14:00:00 GMT

I was planning to write more negative entries to detail the consequences of the dreadful process that culminated on the December 6 vote. But it would require a few more and I want to move on some more interesting and pressing matters.

These entries did lay down the conditions that will rule now the immediate future. And boy, do they already rule it! We had this first week of January the closing of internet media (the open air media and written press have been closed or censored long ago). The novel assembly seated the chairpersons from hell and hurried to take as first measure create a commission to prosecute the ex representatives of the outgoing assembly. (1) This commission, to add insult to injury, will be presided by Jose Brito, a corrupt traitor from the Primero Justicia party. He was booted out and went over officially to chavismo who through judicial fiat gave him the direction of Primero Justicia. Now from his new position he will be able to take revenge, and at the same time spare chavismo the technical responsibility of yet a new totalitarian act. Totalitarian regimes of the XX century should be envious to see how easy it is for chavismo to recruit folks for their dirty work. (2)

The no posts include Not a Victory where I tried to explain why the regime did not score a victory last December. Then the absurdity of the numbers collected by the regime and the opposition, just data. Which of course lead to the unrealistic hopes for future negotiations, perhaps ever. In short these elections were not a crossroad and indicate the lack of options for the opposition.

Now the bleakness of its all exposed it remains to write about what may happen, which are the triggers left.

---------------------

PS: Thanks to Naky Soto for aggregating so well material used today. In Spanish unfortunately for those English only readers. I am just putting it in short and English.

________________________________________________

1) "novel" is the word I shall use for the time being, for lack of better option. The assembly seated January 5 is not only illegal but extremely skewed toward chavismo. They even pushed the cynicism far enough to seat Timoteo Zambrano through "novel" vote counting so as to give him the foreign affairs chair. He failed while negotiating for the opposition and was basically fired for being to cozy and accommodating to the regime and infamous Rodriguez Zapatero. This was during the oppo/regime "dialogue" in Dominican Republic. He never recovered from being sitesided for the Barbados round and now is on a revenge binge like Jose Brito discussed above. Thus my choice of "novel" for now until its actions suggest a better adjective.

Al @JoseBritoVe le salio bien la jugada. Por corrupto y traidor lo botaron de la oposición. El chavismo le regala ahora la comisión para que pueda vengarse. Asi funcionan los sistemas totalitarios, promoviendo la degradación moral, empoderando lacras.https://t.co/XFe4fbXRK0
— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) January 8, 2021

No way ahead

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Mon, 04 Jan 2021 14:12:00 GMT

On January 5 the opposition loses its last legal toe. The constitutional mandate of 5 years for the National Assembly elected in 2015 expires and as of that day all the opposition representatives will lose their seat and immunity. Not that it makes much difference, the list of those already in exile or in jail is quite extensive. The difference now is that a ruthless and vengeful regime will have no need to make up charges to arrest those still free.

The regime by itself has stopped worrying about its legality long ago. Maduro and those elected last December have not been recognized by democratic countries for quite a while. They are used to it. But at least the opposition in its quixotic quest could pretend to represent the lone legal and democratic institution left. Now in Venezuela everyone is out of legality. Quite a feat it is.

What road ahead for the Venezuelan opposition? None really. In the immediate they came up with some scheme that I did not understand well. The Venezuelan assemblies out of normal sessions seated a "comision delegada" which is a small group of representatives that can exert some activities during recess approving minor details so the country keeps running smoothly until normal session resume. This time around a commission is established with Guaido as its head for a non specified time unil free elections are held. The excuse is to extend the mandate of the 2015 assembly since no elections could be held. The legality is dubious. Its potential actions problematic. The repression certain as it can be presented as open rebellion. But to boot, the unanimity was not reached inside the opposition.... The immediate reason for this scheme, me thinks, is to allow a certain number of representatives time to hide or leave the country before January 5 while a handful of representatives sacrifice themselves.

This done, what next? Let's start by putting on the blame of the opposition failure to unseat Maduro. The opposition is now divided in three groups. One is the radicals whose better known figure is the very disappointing Maria Corina Machado. Their sole strategy was to wait for a foreign intervention to get rid of Maduro. Indeed, that may be the lone solution but meanwhile that restrictive attitude sabotaged the efforts from the other groups. At the bitter end Trump is leaving office and the Marines never came. We are waiting for a mea culpa from the radicals. I am not holding my breath.

At the other end there is the caved-in group. Those ones decided to placate the regime and negotiated at disadvantage. The theory went that it was better to go to elections knowing that the results would be bad but good enough to be a base to rebuild a more competitive opposition. Kind of taming the chavista beast. As such they cautioned the election last December. Yet, they received nothing for their compromission: they got a handful of seats, two of their leaders seated through a post electoral break of rules (read: they did not have the votes, Maduro gave them what was missing). They have nothing to show for their betrayal of the opposition except for whatever funds they received for said betrayal. Never mind that they probably lost the little support of those who followed them. And of course, as happened with previous betrayals, they will be dumped when needed. People never learn.

The third group was Guaido. Certainly they made mistakes but at least they tried things. If that group was and still is the very large majority within the opposition it was formed by the G4, the 4 largest parties. Thus internal rivalries made it very difficult to decide actions and do what it took to make them work. In the end all hopes were impossibly put on Guaido who now will be the sacrificial lamb, guilty of all and more.

In front of a ruthless dictatorship certainly it was difficult to find a way without breaking a few dishes. Yet, for whatever little was achieved, a lot of people paid a heavy price. However would have it worked better had Guaido and the G4 leaders marched to Miraflores, bare chested waiting for the first bullet? The thing is whatever they tried a section of the opposition would sabotage it. Negotiate? Maria Corina Machado would curse them until the seventh generation. Boycott the election? The cave-in accuse them of forgetting about the suffering of the people and blaming the G4 for international sanctions. As if el pueblo voting for these unsavory collaborators would have solved anything......

So? What is next?

Nobody has an idea. The only thing we know is that with a pandemic the regime preferred to use for political purposes rather than a show of caring for the masses, 2021 looks like being the worst year in our history since the devastating civil wars of the XIX century. The only thing the opposition can do now is to learn from its mistakes, tune down failed egos, try to meet on basic points and hold to them. Only that way can credibility be maintained and reconstruction of some political apparatus started.

That is all. The rest is not in our hands. Really you may say? Yes I reply.

The international community has much to be blamed for, just as I blamed the opposition above. They have been told long ago. They have seen the stream of migrations perturbing in many cases their economy and welfare system. Now credible reports of Venezuelan mafias following are coming up. Surprised? Think about the Russian mafia spreading out with the collapse of the USSR.

Sanctions were necessary but not enough. The Lima group was the wimpiest of all. They let US, Canada and Europe take sanctions but themselves took very few of those. It did not help them against their critics: the left is on the rise again in those LatAm countries who are the ones suffering most of the consequences of the millions of Venezuelans streaming out. In fact the group of Lima has been a huge disappointment, a collection of empty declarations.

Europe did better. At least they took some sanctions and is actively trying to track down money launderers. But like the Group of Lima, they hid behind declarations and wishy washy wishful wishes of free elections to solve the crisis.

The problem with Europe and LatAm is that they are afraid to call a spade, a spade. Venezuela is a narco-military dictatorship. That is, a criminal organization and it should be dealt with as such. At least the Trump administration used the right words on that. It took big sanctions. It spoke loudly and menacingly. Yet in the end it did not dare to confront who it really needed to confront on Venezuela: its supporters, Russia, Turkey and China (Iran it did but that is another story). (1)

So now we are paradoxically left with a blank page and the incoming Biden administration has to fill it up, bring all the other players in. Does it has a plan, a strategy? During Obama they failed on Venezuela and Cuba, I have little hope.....

Whatever is decided the bottom line is an either/or/and the below observations:

- a military action. Does not need to be a full bodied one, but at least it must include actions such as blockade of harbours, expulsion of chavistas hidden outside, etc.....

- a way out for at least 100 top chavistas and their families. A place of safe exile with enough of the stolen money for their dolce vita and that of their children and grand children.

____________________________________

1) no, I have not forgotten Cuba. But with the wreckage of the Venezuelan economy Cuba has passed from colonial master status to mercenaries of the other three to keep Maduro in office while they play out their geostrategic games against the US.

A new year

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sun, 03 Jan 2021 19:30:00 GMT

Wishing readers the best possible year 2021. It is going tough this time around. And if you are in Venezuela just making it through the year will be quite the achievement. Not that it will be much easier for those of us forced to leave the country but at least most of us will have access to food and running water 24/24.

If you are not Venezuelan and read this blog, do something good this year: help an exiled Venezuelan.

Love to all.

Defeated, and so far away from Ithaka

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sun, 27 Dec 2020 18:55:00 GMT

These last few months have been hard on the soul. You may have noticed if you were a regular reader: writing was scarce. Perhaps it was my subconscious dealing with the reality of exile. I had written that discussing Venezuela from afar was somewhat a hypocrite exercice. It is up to journalists to visit Venezuela for a few days and then bomb us back with supposedly knowledgeable articles from their safe desks at home. But a blogger who made his name writing in situ, from some Podunk like place in Venezuela?

There was something else at work, the grief of having lost home and memories. I suppose that grieving in a span of 6 months the loss of my life partner, the loss of my father and the loss of my health distracted me from grieving the loss of my country. Oh! I knew Venezuela was lost for a while, but as long as I was there it did not hit home the way it does now that I have left and start realizing there may be no return.

Two recent articles, unfortunately in Spanish and too long to translate, helped in my efforts to come to terms with my new reality.

The first one is from Miguel Angel Santos, El largo regreso de los venezolanos a Ítaca, the long return of Venezuelans to Ithaca , inspired from the famous Cavafy poem (1).

In a way Santos does not say anything new, nothing that has not been said or suggested here and there. But he puts it together under the raw light of objective observation, of the raw comparison of the Venezuelan exile with other painful ones. We do not pass the test. As a nation of exiles we are failing the test, we are not accepting that we have left the country and may have chosen to live in a future of "next year in Jerusalem". And it will not. Even if a quarter of us returns, at most according to historical examples, it will not remotely be the Venezuela we left. And I add, it may have no connection with our memories.

There are things we need to do. We need to accept the fact that our exile may never end. We need to properly grieve and move on. We need to reconstruct our lives around what we may be able to build wherever it is we are. And we also must develop our community of exiles. This not only to feel better about ourselves and to forge new acceptable shared memories, but also to help those that are yet to come to fit in faster with less suffering than what we burdened ourselves with.

The second article was from Milagros Socorro who I often referred to and even translated in this blog. This time it is an interview in the great site ProDaVinci where what is left of Venezuelan intelligentsia tries its pen in some times memorable articles. The title is Milagros Socorro: “No creo en las sociedades menores de edad” which can loosely be translated as "I do not believe in minor societies" as in too young to be responsible. Certainly the Venezuelan society is responsible for what happened to it.

In this interview on her latest book Milagros speaks of her creativity and sources on what makes her a great writer of short stories (2). What caught my attention for the subject at hand was this paragraph translated next (3):

"Are you telling me that other things should be told? Hugo, I am a loser. I am defeated. For 20 years — twenty years — I have been doing journalism non-stop, non-stop. I have done many interviews, chronicles, opinion articles, grand reporting, profiles and for years I have been writing, trying to prevent things from happening. All that journalism, all that strenuous effort, sometimes even a bit ridiculous, was to keep things from happening, because journalists, really informed, knew the trap that was being prepared for the country. There was no way not to see it. The experts, in each of their specialties, told us that with these actions by Chávez and Chavismo, the country was going to its destruction. If you fire, if you boot, 20,000 PDVSA technicians, you are beheading the oil industry. You are not only doing it to lose all its heritage, but to be able to control and destroy it. There was a will to destroy the entire country. We were seeing it, documenting it, interviewing it. So, I feel like a defeated person. All that work was useless. It was of no use".

This is a rather stunning confession and I suspect Socorro says it as an invocation to help rebuild her life. She is after all now exiled, like Santos. Perhaps she suffers more than Santos or myself: there are so many writers and composers that went silent once unable to nourish their souls with the air of their land.

Like Milagros, all the effort to write this huge blog since 2002 has been for naught. All the exposure I got has been wasted. Nobody will even remember that in 2002-2006 we were only a very few writing in English to tell the truth, to announce what was coming. Few will admit that we were among the first to be righteous. It does no good to remember these days when my voice counted a tiny bit. Like Milagros I have been defeated.

Any exile is a defeat. Any exile is a challenge. Our grief shall be carried forever but our lives, rebuild we must how unpalatable that may be.

I have to grieve that all is lost. I am afraid that were I to return my memories may have nowhere to latch on to revive a glimpse of my past. What I will see then is a foreign country where outside what memories I have kept in my old rooms will feel as foreign to me as anywhere else I may be living in this world. Grief is necessary to live so I'll have the strength if I ever return to Ithaka were no Penelope awaits.

Ithaka gave you the marvelous journey.

Without her, you would not have set out.

She has nothing left to give you now.

And if you find her poor, Ithaka won't have fooled you.

Wise as you will have become, so full of experience,

you will have understood by then what these Ithakas mean.

___________________________________________________________

1) If you want the whole poem, a translation is here

Mi libro, en Amazonhttps://t.co/FaxsUeHEXn
— Milagros Socorro (@MilagrosSocorro) December 8, 2020

3) The original Spanish paragraph

¿Me dices que otras cosas deben contarse? Hugo, yo soy una derrotada. Yo estoy derrotada. A lo largo de 20 años —veinte años— he estado haciendo periodismo sin parar, sin parar. He hecho muchas entrevistas, crónicas, artículos de opinión, gran reportaje, perfil y durante años he estado escribiendo, tratando de que las cosas no ocurrieran. Todo ese periodismo. Todo ese esfuerzo, denodado, a veces hasta un poco ridículo, era para que no ocurrieran las cosas, porque los periodistas, realmente informados, sabíamos la celada que se le estaba preparando al país. No había manera de no verlo. Los expertos, en cada una de sus especialidades, nos decían que con esas acciones de Chávez y el chavismo, el país iba a su destrucción. Si despides, si botas, a 20.000 técnicos de PDVSA, tú estás descabezando a la industria petrolera. No sólo lo estás haciendo para perder todo su patrimonio, sino para poderla controlar y destruirla. Hubo una voluntad de destruir todo el país. Nosotros lo fuimos viendo, documentando, entrevistando. Entonces, yo me siento una persona derrotada. Todo ese trabajo fue inútil. No sirvió para nada.

The 2020 Xmas post

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sat, 26 Dec 2020 19:02:00 GMT

It is late, like everything in this year.

But I hope that in spite of all those reading this will have the best possible Xmas they could have.

Here in exile a Tweet posted a few weeks ago will have to do.

Despues de 3 años de duelos, enfermedad y exilio es hora de recomponer un poquito la vida. La Navidad más nunca será normal pero haremos algo de ella.
Empezaremos con algo que no podía hacer en Venezuela, un arbolito en matero que sembraré en enero. pic.twitter.com/qbpjtdeUue

— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) December 7, 2020

Although it does not look too happy I think it may survive. We'll plant it on New Year's day. Let's take it as a good omen if it grows.

No negotiation, never

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Fri, 18 Dec 2020 17:56:00 GMT

So Maduro/regime/Cuba have everything: total control of the executive, legislative and judiciary; decisive support of the army; they count the votes; no private sector able to finance an opposition; decided support of all sorts of tyrants/strong men here and there; the acquiescent silence of a few; semi free propaganda from lefties a.k.a tankies. Just a few democracies against and a few damning reports on human rights violations. But who cares: any insubordination at home will be quickly snuffed now that new repressive laws will be easily enacted.

But there is one thing that the regime has that is a problem: international sanctions. I am not talking about the sanctions against PDVSA which is seen as diminishing the income on corruption schemes (the income for el pueblo is sill enough to fudge elections, and if they want more they can emigrate least they die from Covid before_1_&_2_). The sanctions that the regime fears are those that are an hindrance to enjoy the loot in glamorous parts of the world. That is, it is becoming more difficult to hide the money or buy nice manses in the US or Spain. Never mind the risk of being arrested in doing so.

And now add the topping that the International Criminal Court at The Hague has decided that preliminary examination considers that crimes against humanity have been committed under Maduro in Venezuela. That is, Maduro and a bunch of other chavistas are now officially examined at the ICC for a possible (more than likely I would say) trial at The Hague.

What can a poor dictator do? At home no major problem. Investigated and condemned dictators have survived for years in power. There is nothing that a little repression and a little money cannot solve, as long as you do not leave the country. But if you and your cronies want to travel it is another matter: just hope that you do not need to do an emergency landing in an ICC signatory country.

Thus the "scoop" today.

It was to be expected. Changing tack makes sense since Trump failed in unseating Maduro. But at least Biden people understand that reversal is impossible.
Yet it is perhaps the last opportunity for Maduro to exit without a bloodbath.https://t.co/h4KqOWnB3G
— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) December 18, 2020

Certainly Maduro must feel confident enough now that he has all in hand. Though his denial on the economy will play a trick on him someday, even Bechar and Mugabe fell eventually. He is probably willing to allow the opposition to gain a few town halls, maybe even a half dozen states, all under due monitoring (3). But replaying presidential and assembly election you may forget about it. And certainly not on fair terms, though some fairer conditions could be allowed at local levels, but not everywhere (4).

In exchange of a few cosmetic offerings, while retaining full judicial control, the most important of them all, the regime merely asks for suspension of sanctions and the implied freedom to keep drug trafficking, money laundering et al.

I, for one, doubt very much that Biden or the EU will accept that. Venezuela has become an hemispheric security issue. But Trump has failed, Maduro is more solidly in Miraflores than when Trump was elected (apparently solid, you know). The only winner of the Trump bravado on Venezuela is Trump himself: he won Florida. Cubans and Venezuelans in Florida or at home are worse off than when Obama left (5).

Let's not forget two things. First, the track record of negotiations with the regime has been an abject failure. Even when not against the opposition. For the regime, as with any totalitarian system, a "negotiation" is strictly a tool for gaining time even if some concessions must be made. On the first opportunity everything is taken back, and offensive resumed. And the second thing is that Maduro is propped up by the experience of Iran and Cuba on dodging sanctions and postponing deadlines.

It is thus quite certain that some conversation/negotiation will take place once Biden is sworn in. Not only it is unavoidable but they are to be supported. Was I thus misleading the reader with this post title? No. The point is that the word negotiation mean different things for a totalitarian state and a democrat. As long as democrats in the US and EU do not understand that and comprehend what that truly means, no serious negotiation will be possible or conclusive.

____________________________________

1) just read the latest on how the regime is unable to perform even routine Covid tests....

Fuel shortages are adding to Venezuela's inability to properly test people for Covid-19 despite receiving new supplies.

To date, just 1,600 of 340,000 antigen tests supplied by PAHO have been deployed, resulting in 400 positive cases. https://t.co/g1s8wFiCLI By @NicolleYapur
— Álex Vásquez S (@AlexVasquezS) December 17, 2020

2) Maduro has announced that he is throwing his lot behind the Russian vaccine. The problem, is that Putin did not get it because he said that it is not approved for those more than 60; that problems in production are reported; and last but not least, they are not bothering introducing the dossier of Sputnik 5 to the FDA or comparable agencies in Canada, the EU or Britain (nor the Chinese, for that matter, that I know of at this writing). I find that suspicious and I, for one, will wait for Pfizer/Moderna.

3) one the tasks set for the new Assembly is to vote the necessary laws to establish the "communal state". A long story but suffice to say that a large part of local resources and programs will be controlled by communes whose leaders are elected through public vote and vetted by the regime. In short, even if the opposition were to elect a governor or mayor, there is little this one will be able to do. Nevermind the social control these communes will mean.

4) last local elections, for example, the state of Bolivar was won by the opposition. But the electoral board annulled a few votes in a center and that was enough to steal the state. Trump supporters would appreciate, except that this was for real. The reason? Bolivar is strategic as a refuge for allied Colombian guerrillas and for the reckless and ecology disaster of gold extraction.

5) Obama's policies on Cuba and Venezuela have been an equally grievous failure as Trump's. One can only hope that the incoming team will learn from BOTH administrations. Let's not forget that on the campaign trail both Harris and Biden have had strong words against the Venezuelan regime.

No results, just data

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sun, 13 Dec 2020 17:50:00 GMT

The opposition held this week its parallel election called "consulta popular". Whatever its result their weigh will be limited because the regime has embarked in a new course which includes not only elimination of a real opposition but even of normal elements of civil society it cannot control (1). This is Cuba in waiting for you. You doubt me? Let's look at the "result" of Sunday 6.

You were the one who count the votes?
You got this.

With almost 70% of the vote the regime gets around 92% of the seats (the undecided in the graph next have mostly gone PSUV).

Nobody with a minimum of knowledge on electoral system, and how "elections" take place in Venezuela was surprised. The only ones surprised were the collection of pseudo-opposition parties who as "Mesa de Negociacion" were the caution used by the regime to change the electoral system and call for the illegal elections. That MdN did not expect to be so laminated. They "thought" that what had been agreed with the regime would improve the proportional representation. It made it worse, with close to zero minority representation! And note that the regime twisted some of the counting "electoral coalitions" post election to give them two more seats since not all major "leaders" were elected (2). That added more illegality but who's counting?

You know what is funny? Of all the minor parties listed the one I think to be closer from a real opposition to Maduro will be the lone representative of the Communist Party! Another delightful detail is that the party of Henri Falcon who claimed to be the opposition to Maduro in the 2018 charade got only 1 seat! In 2018 he got 21% and based himself on that to pretend at the opposition leadership. Clearly the MdN has totally failed to get anything, they have been truly the useful fool. And me thinks that of the votes they got a large chunk came from disgruntled chavistas who will vote back for the regime whenever Maduro is not on the ticket anymore.

I for one think that the announced "result" is nominally true. The regime had even to falsify numbers to make sure he got in the assembly the opposition it wanted! The fraud came from before with the extensive blackmail and voting interference perpetrated. With all the abuse of the regime even if the opposition had run it would have got more votes than the regime and yet lost the assembly. But the plan of the regime was all along to get the opposition to boycott the election The result was written months ago.

What should have done the opposition? I would have liked for this one to call for protests or at least sit ins on Sunday 6. But there is no guts left for much, courtesy of years of repression and exiled/jailed leadership. Instead they held a counter electoral event that started last Monday. They asked people to vote through an app or through Telegram on a set of three questions (meaningless in my opinion for being repetitive and wishful thinking). And yesterday as a public event with "voting" booths opened inside and outside Venezuela. They announced today a comparable number of voters than on Sunday 6, equally non auditable as the CNE numbers in my opinion.

And since I am being particularly opinionated here, I think the result of the opposition today is interesting not at all by its numbers but because in spite of all the regime abuse, the absolute lack of coverage in media they managed to mobilise millions. Imagine what the result would have been with a semblance of real electoral conditions (3).

Meanwhile the 6+ millions announced should be considered as a mere headcount of people that have not totally given up at this point. The international decision makers will decide what to do with that, it is not in our hands.

Thus the title. All of these announced results are to be considered with great care and skepticism. They are political data rather than results.

__________________________________________

1) it is good to recall that the extensive humanitarian held offered to Venezuela has been stalled because the regime insists on being its distributor. International donors cannot accept that the dictatorship will use that help for its political advantage. The regime does not care about the fate of the people in most need.

2) the two egregious cases are first Luis Parra, the vermin of Yaracuy my home state who was caught red handed in corruption, was expelled from Primero Justicia, was used by the regime on the parliamentary coup of last January were he became head of a rump parliament that voted nothing since then. He founded Primero Venezuela to syphon the votes of Primero Justicia, got financial help from the regime for his campaign, was declared loser on Sunday night by his own allies and suddenly through crass manipulation found himself elected on Tuesday. The other case is even more offensive. Timoteo Zambrano used to be the informal foreign minister of the opposition and sent to all sorts of negotiations. Not only these all failed but he was found to become cosier and cosier with the regime counterparts and former Spanish premier, Zapatero, who ended up going from mediator to supporter of Maduro. Timoteo pretended to be offended by the questioning of his ambiguous role, to say the least. He went on creating his own party and yet failed to be elected. But the CNE suddenly announced that there was a last minute change in electoral coalitions, of which there is no paper trail, and voila, Timoteo will be now the head of the "opposition" in the national assembly.

3) one silver lining that probably will never be used further by the opposition is that app voting system (VOATZ). It can be used for a lot of things such as primaries, consulting, censoring, approving. Even if not all have access to internet good enough and smart phones advanced enough, as a consulting system it could help a lot in becoming a unifying system in the opposition. But dreams are cheap, are they not?

Not a victory

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Mon, 07 Dec 2020 17:14:00 GMT

The first "results" have fallen but I did not follow. It was nice to spend an evening without worrying about elections results, for a change. Instead we did the Christmas tree at home, with a live tree to be planted in the yard in January. After 3 years of grief, sickness and exile it was nice to set a small christmas decoration....

Despues de 3 años de duelos, enfermedad y exilio es hora de recomponer un poquito la vida. La Navidad más nunca será normal pero haremos algo de ella.
Empezaremos con algo que no podía hacer en Venezuela, un arbolito en matero que sembraré en enero. pic.twitter.com/qbpjtdeUue
— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) December 7, 2020

I suppose that this was a small victory for me here in exile, while unfortunately every one was met with defeat at home as I could see on Twitter this morning.

The regime first. Amazingly it conceded 70% abstention, which in itself is quite a blow for the regime. Others pollsters/observers are inclined toward an 80% abstention, suggesting number manipulation. Whatever. The point is that in spite of the grossest regime advantage, going as far as tracking down people to force them to go and vote and blackmailing them for food and cooking gas, it still had to admit a 70% abstention which at the very least means that the electoral machinery of the regime is gripped. They could not fudge the numbers, it was for all to see, even their own international "observers" would not be able to butter this up. With 70% not voting and supposedly 66% of the vote for the regime that leaves at best 20% support for Maduro. Forced support or not it does not matter for this discussion, it shows that what serious pollsters say: the regime has at most 20% of popular support. (1)

But that blow is of course no reason for the opposition to cheer. After all out of that 70% who is the real abstention and who did not vote because they preferred to stand in line to buy gas?

The numbers emitted by the CNE, if you can believe them, would give about 30% to the "opposition". Remember, the parties running "against" Maduro's PSUV are either a collection of non entities that settled with Maduro, or are bona fide opposition parties that have been taken over through judicial fiat by the regime, and thus running regime approved candidates. Here the defeat is for those inside the opposition that disagreed with Guaido's team: they did not get away with it! The more so if you consider that among this 30% voters there are many chavistas disgruntled with Maduro, forced to vote that voted opposition rather than than the PSUV goons. That "opposition" had months of highly publicized meeting with the regime, wanted us to swallow snakes and yet they failed to attract genuine support. 10% of the electorate, if true, for a dozen parties, well, do the math.

In short they humiliated themselves for dirty scraps. (2)

As for the real opposition that promoted abstention, they can find little comfort yesterday. Yes, the big abstention was a blow to the regime but it does not mean automatic support for the current leadership. Out of these 70% who are those who always abstain? Those disgruntled chavistas that are waiting for something better than Maduro? People who prefer to stand in line for gas? But I'll wait for a separate entry to write about the opposition's fate. (3)

One thing though is absolutely certain: in 2015 the opposition in already tainted elections managed to gain 2/3 of the National Assembly. Five years later, in the middle of a devastating hyperinflation, the worst economic recession in history, millions forced into exile, lack of gas, electricity, water, food and medicine, in the middle of an ill managed pandemic, the PSUV is returned with more than a 2/3 majority. I have read hundred of history books, magazines and atlases, and yet I have never seen such a thing. But if you think this is coherent, that this is possible, even credible, then please, do call me, I have a bridge for you in Brooklyn. Cheap.

-----------------------------------------------------

1) there have been plenty of leaks though elections days, from Yaracuy governor, my ex-state, at 2 PM ordering his people to move their asses to get people because by then they already knew that the numbers were too low to pictures of poll workers napping on the voting tables.....

2) Had I been forced to vote I would not have done so for these fake opposition parties. Voting null is difficult with the system. Unless there was a bat crazy candidate I would have voted for a junior allied of the PSUV Might as well get the real thing.

3) Several serious democratic countries have announced today that they are not recognizing the election. So far the only "success" the opposition can claim out if yesterday.

Not at a cross roads

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sun, 06 Dec 2020 18:28:00 GMT

The election that is held today in Venezuela is not bringing the country at a crossroads, it is the end of a long and painful involution.

It has been a long time that Venezuela is a dictatorship (1). What the "election" of today means, as a closing chapter, is that the regime controls now avery single parcel of power. Whatever seems like an opposition hold, some states, a town hall here and there, is totally dependent to function on the good will of the regime that pretends to offer this as a proof of democracy. These near helpless souls sometimes are even assigned someone from the regime to take some of their functions, the ones the regime deems essential for its security and miscellaneous shadowy activities. But the stark reality is that the regime controls the three branches of government and the fourth one, the real one in many LatAm countries, the army. The 5th branch, the media so to speak, is also controlled by the regime outside of Facebook, Tweeter and Instagram. Though some tweeterers fool enough to reveal their positions found their way to jail.

When January 5 2021 comes all this control will become official. Does that mean the regime feels safe and secure? No.

To begin with, the economic situation is going from bad to worse and the possibility someday for a major uncontrollable upheaval still exists, no matter what silencing moves the regime has done. Venezuela is not Cuba. The island managed to have most potential rebels find their way to exile (remember Mariel?). Being an island it was easy to become a huge concentration camp for all practical purposes, getting a few scarce dollars through prostitution of its youth and sucking the blood of other countries fool enough to succumb to the charms of Fidel.

But Venezuela is not an island, it has complicated borders difficult to control so the concentration camp is not a easy option. It has managed to get rid of the bulk of potential rebels through the roads of voluntary or forced exile. Though the millions that left Venezuela on foot through Colombia may have been an internal boon for the regime but a headache in international relations since they destabilize neighbouring countries. How long, for example, will Colombia hold is a mystery.

Controlling all powers in Venezuela does not make this control legal, and even less legitimate. Forcing the take over of the National Assembly was a necessity to assuage its allies. China and Russia need some kind of legal set up to justify future investments in Venezuela. These investments by the way will be done by surrendering natural resources to these countries: Venezuela is not an interesting market anymore, too much poverty, too much hyperinflation. Russia wants Venezuela for its oil and its strategic value as a thumb in the nose to the US. Period.

The regime is fine with a take over of resources by its "allies". The higher ups have stolen enough through corruption under Chavez and their future is materially guaranteed. But they need to remain in Venezuela since laundering money is now a crime and too many of them face real prospects of jail terms outside of Venezuela. Thus the need to have Russians and Chinese managing resources to get some extra income to be able to control the populace through repression and bags of food. Not out of their pockets, of course.

It follows that Maduro has not reached a crossroads. The one considered as a louth in 2013 has outwitted everyone, from his internal enemies like Diosdado Cabello forced now to defend Maduro least he gets an orange uniform, to the opposition which through a slow agony ends today in its formal structure. True, the "opposition" to Maduro is overwhelming in any opinion poll, but through a series of mistakes, missed opportunities and ruthless criminal activities from the regime its leadership meets its official end today.

Maduro is now in charge in a way that Chavez could not even dream of. But he has neither his charisma or popular support (2). Not even his cash since the goose of the oil barrels is now dead. He presides over a bombless war ruined country. He has won but he has really nowhere to go since the road ahead is building, and of that he knows nothing.

_______________________________________

1) as far as I am concerned Venezuela is a dictatorship since 2013 when Maduro was imposed as president in clear violation of constitutional dispositions.

2) Chavez charisma exists but I never could quite comprehend. I have despised the man before he became president and knew all along it will end in disaster. My only surprise is that it took this long.

The 2020 election post: the vote funeral

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sat, 05 Dec 2020 22:30:00 GMT

For those still aware of the existence of this blog you may remember that I had a post or posts about Venezuelan elections since 2003. Sometimes with quite a good prediction success. This time I can guarantee you that tomorrow the Maduro regime will get a landslide.

In fact, the only question is how far the regime will go into tweaking the results to make sure that the"opposition" gets a credible number of seats.....

This has to be the most worthless Venezuelan election in memory. It is so bad that there is not even a point in promoting abstention as a political tool. It is so meaningless to go and vote that nobody cares about it. I, for one, were I to be in Venezuela would not vote out of "I give a rat's ass" attitude. Certainly not a militant abstention like in some past elections.

Why? So bad is the fraud set up by the regime that other countries took the very unusual step of saying that they would not recognize the results MONTHS before the election would take place and the final rules set up revealed. In normal "fraud" foreign countries wait for a few days before the vote or a few days after it to decide whether recognizing the result.

I am not going to enter into the long list of illegal actions taken by the regime, it would become a litany. I am just going to mention my favorites.

The gerrymandering was pushed to the extreme of almost doubling the number of representatives that the constitution strictly allows. So you can imagine what the redistricting according to this new numbers must look like! The constitution was DELIBERATELY violated and nothing happened.

The political slavery that the regime subjects scores of Venezuelans through the food distribution system CLAP has been officially acknowledged: #2 of the regime, Diosdado Cabello, said at a recent meeting that those who do not vote tomorrow will not eat. Just like that.

A couple of months ago the regime decided through "justice" to unseat the leadership of the main opposition parties and replace them with underlings that were caught in acts of corruption and decided to side with the regime, for a few hundred thousand dollars. Cheap for the regime. That is, the regime "co-opted" the main opposition parties to build the opposition it likes; or needs, or whatever. The real reason is that these parties had decided to boycott the election so they needed to be forced into participation to justify the take over of the National Assembly by the regime: to be a victor you need a vanquished. Nobody buys it, of course, least the new guardians of these political parties who get booed when by chance they cross the path of the real militants. By the way, it has been shown that chavistas have offered on occasion the bulk of some of attendants at some of their "political campaign rallies".

Today I got a new favorite

The electoral Ripley's moment.
Watch the CNN micro in this picture. It is fake. @CNNEE never covered the event. Explanation follows. https://t.co/jKynvUDaeW pic.twitter.com/gqrSjW4MEh
— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) December 5, 2020

What does that thread mean? The lack of electoral interest by the electors is so obvious, in particular for the fake opposition candidates, that they need to invent interest, going as far as putting fake micros for their press conferences that only state media attend. Maybe. Some. For regime propaganda purpose.

So that is that. No need to lose sleep over that election. No need to do electoral analysis, the more so that numbers for electors, etc. have long ceased to be reliable. No need to rush on to Internet Monday morning to check the results: if I bothered tonight I could go through the candidates list and give you at the very least 80% of those that will "win" tomorrow. Not 100% of course since I do not know who in the "opposition" will be allowed to "win", even if they do not have the votes.

The only thing of remote interest will be the abstention numbers. Of course the electoral board CNE will not publish any real numbers of abstention or anything else (that I know off there are almost no opposition witness at poll stations so anything will go there). Still, we will not see long lines at polling stations, the more so that many polling stations have been "regrouped" for efficiency and covid safety and lack of gas for private and public transportation. That is, to unify meager participation in several centers into a not so meager participation in a single one (one brother bothered to check his voting station and found out he was redistricted 2 miles away from his original voting center).

No, what is interesting is what will happen on December 7 with a supernumerary majority only recognized by well noted democracies like Cuba, Russia or China. On January 5 when this new assembly is seated, if they can find a way to fit all of these extra representatives in the smallish hemicycle, what will be interesting is how long will it take to arrest the 60% of the actual opposition representatives still in Venezuela now that they will have no legal protection. Yes, 40% of the representatives elected in 2015 are now in exile or in jail (never mind those that were in jail for a few months in between). And if you think of it that 60% remaining had little protection..... I hope for them that they will have found a way to leave the country over the Christmas break.

Iran gasoline in Venezuela: tragedy or bad joke

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Mon, 15 Jun 2020 14:32:00 GMT

This nice PDVSA worker, all dressed in red of course, cheers and waves the flag as Iranian tankers reach Venezuela to deliver gasoline.

What is wrong with this picture?

To begin with, the worker is a fraud, he represents a state oil company which once upon a time was a world class company and that the chavista revolution has run to the ground. It went exporting oil and gasoline eons ago to now being unable to supply the Venezuelan market, resorting to the lone country willing to sell gas to Venezuela: sanctioned Iran.

Let's continue. The bolivarian revolution, liberator of minds and spirit has sunk so low that it now glorifies a theocracy which among other things holds the death penalty, separates genders, prosecutes minorities and and tramples varied human rights. All is ABSOLUTELY against the original purposes of chavismo. But then again, the "revolution" is long been gone, whatever that was.

But they all wear masks and gloves, which I hear are missing in public hospitals. But I digress.

What matters beyond this cheap show of avowed failure is that the Iranian gasoline has been a failed show: nobody really cared. No tanker was pirated or sunk in high seas. No problem. The US was coherent with its sanctions: food, medicine and stuff like gas can pass. period. End of propaganda.

In Venezuela the regime hoped for a confrontation, and so did part of the opposition desperate for the Marines to land. But on May 22 I was tweeting, in Spanish, sorry, that nothing would happen, no matter the cheap escort show the Venezuelan army planned and did when the tankers reached Venezuelan waters. Nobody apparently thought that if the US of A was going to sink a tanker it would have done so in high seas. But I digress again.

3 EEUU tiene que ser coherente con el extento de sus sanciones. Por lo tanto no va a parar los tanqueros iranies. A menos que busquen un casus belli con Iran; y ese sería malísimo. Hay mejores.
4 ni que traigan 10 tanqueros se arregla el problema. La escasez regresará siempre.
— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) May 21, 2020

So gasoline from Iran made it. Nobody knows how it will be paid for, though we all suspect it will be from the scarce gold reserves left and the Blood Gold from the devastated Bolivar state.

The opposition could not do a thing but at least it announced that were they in charge, the would find the credits to buy 40+ tankers a month, regularize gas supply within two weeks and fix in a short time whatever can be fixed of the Venezuelan refineries.

Of course, this way the opposition did score a point indicating that 5 Iranian tankers are not enough to cover the needs, which we can see from day one of the tankers arrival. Corruption and extended gas lines were kept. The price of gas was jacked up from 0,00000... USD to 50 a cents a liter, little bit less than 2 $ a gallon. Plus of course what you pay the Nazional Guard to let you access the gas station and other miscellaneous expenses.

Because yes, without a doubt, the gas distribution scheme was designed to favor corruption, directed mostly to the army that can get pretty much what it wants and resell it at any price it wants (I was told by some friends that they paid as much as 4$ a liter at the peak crisis time).

When we will be able to write real history books, t4his Iran gas thing will mark one of the low points. But a high point in corruption, certainl.

The end arriveth

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Tue, 19 May 2020 10:45:00 GMT

Milton Friedman said something of the kind that were the Sahara to be ruled by communist the desert would run out of sand within a few years.

Well, it just happened in Venezuela, perhaps the first mega oil producer in history that has run out of gasoline.

And at the very possible worst time as we ran out of money, when Coronavirus stroke, when an ailing production is least able to suffer such a disaster.

Admittedly, referring to Friedman we are not sure anymore what is ruling in Venezuela. Communists? Socialists? Fascists of the XXI century? For sure narcos. For that matter, we do not even know if someone is in charge, besides those organizing repression of course.

The political consequences were quickly seen.

First, Venezuela installed the earliest and, on paper, strictest of quarantines as to Covid19 in LatAm. For a rarest once I will admit that the regime was right in closing up everything: the shot health system could not handle even a mild health crisis. But the true reason as to the early stern closing up of the country was the end of fuel, to make it less noticeable, to avoid massive protests, while the repression went up a notch, in case of. But of course, as the regime is bereft of ideas as how to solve the problem discontent is rising fast and showing (1).

Second, trying to hide the mess through some tall tale. There was a supposed invasion to Venezuela. I am not going into the details here (2). Suffice to say that it gave a golden opportunity for propaganda for the regime though it is not clear whether it is working this time around. The clumsy show and oncoming information seems to point out to a very amateurish operation that was cancelled but that the regime took over as an attempt to create its own "Bay of Pigs" narrative. Apparently there was at least as many double agents than actual plotters.

And thirdly, of course, as usual, it goes without saying, it was an opportunity to repress a little bit more, to flush out dissent among the rank and file of chavismo.

But the end is here.

The regime is bereft of ideas, besides novel techniques of repression and torture. Economic solutions according to its model do not exist. What seemed like solutions under Chavez were only due to sky high oil prices. Now it seems that the cost of extraction in Venezuela may not be covered by the sale price of oil. Never mind that we do not produce a third of what was produced when Chavez was elected in 1998.

Nor has he regime the human resources to create a recovery. If these people existed in the structure, we would already know of them. The narco state Venezuela only needs people with gang/thug mentality. Of these, it can find a lot.

The siege mentality has also taken over the regime. So bent it is on survival (they would go to jail if they lose power) that they have become inured to the plight of the people. That mind set has actually created a very cruel state, an amazing cruel state.

And if we consider the general situation of the country. Without gas o money what are seeing? What can we expect? This:

Production lines are collapsing.

Crops cannot be harvested, or reach Caracas.

The lack of money, the refusal to open up to the private sector, stops the countryside to start the new crop cycle.

There is no chlorine for tap water. The aqueducts are falling apart. The water that reaches Caracas seems like dirty pond water. When it reaches Caracas (or the main cities for that matter).

Hyperinflation has restarted. Prices in dollars are now double of what you could find in Miami or even France (but the nominal minimum wage hovers around 5$ A MONTH!).

And this just in two months. Soon a hunger crisis. And compounded with the rest we are looking forward a major health crisis in the horizon. Unless China and Russia do not send large amounts of cash, I cannot see how the dictaotrship can solve these issues on its own. Then again, the current situation may be what the regime wants since begging for food is a good way to control the masses.

--------------------------
1) The solution of course is to reach a deal with the opposition, call for real competitive elections within a year. As soon as this is done Venezuela will be able to borrow fast and heavy to buy gasoline and repair refineries with real technology instead of the patches hat Iran is trying to put up in the wrecked installations, a wreck due to an absolute lack of maintenance, investments, modernisation. In short, the result of 20 years of corruption.

2) I twitted a lot on "Gedeon", the alledged invasion. An example here:

About the alleged invasion of Venezuela by US mercenaries. The best proof of political manipulation is in these two pictures.
One is the original picture, the other one the edited version to make believe that a simple militia fisherman was able to stop a "heavily armed" boat. pic.twitter.com/RRFNGqCVrX
— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) May 6, 2020

Coronavirus a.k.a COVID 19 : the Venezuelan story

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Mon, 09 Mar 2020 00:04:00 GMT

No need to soften the blow. If the first case of Coronavirus in Venezuela is not yet confirmed, it is just a matter of time until a verifiable one is reported. In fact, the Pan American Health Organization has announced that it is sending missions to vulnerable countries. That is, vulnerable in their health system, including in the list Venezuela, Haiti, Nicaragua. The implications are obvious.

Venezuela is highly vulnerable to such an epidemy. The public health system is in shambles, unable to deal with such an epidemic, justifying the worries of the PAHO. The private system has become terribly expensive, and it is certainly not designed to substitute the public health system. At all.

Never mind that elemental precautions such as washing your hands with soap are often daunting as soap is of poor quality, very expensive, and running water way too often not available. Using long stored buckets of water will not cut it.

More worrisome is the nature of the regime bound to hide what could be a major catastrophe. I am going to pass on the usual accusations of conspiracy that the US would have created the Coronavirus to destroy China (and the world? including the US?). Some chavista was bold enough to mention 1989 as the date when the inoculation started.....

The idiocy of chavismo, its absolute lack of understanding and interest for science and objective data is well documented. What is more dangerous is its denial. Already the government of Zulia, where that possible case has been reported, said that it was all a farce, a simulation. Imagine what will happen when it will not be possible to hide cases of COVID 19 in Caracas....

Let me remind the reader that the regime has made its strong suit to kill statistics and hide the extent on which old epidemics returned. We have again tuberculosis and rubeola. Paludism, Dengue and Yellow Fever are all back even though they do barely appear in official statistics. And this has been happening for a long time. Ten years ago I was hospitalized for hemorrhagic Dengue and already doctors told me that they stopped reporting cases as the health ministry simply refused to confirm the cases coming to them daily. Imagine today.....

Woe is us.

A whirlwind start of year

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sat, 29 Feb 2020 19:22:00 GMT

Over a month and a half without writing...

Then again I learned the limitations of writing from outside of Venezuela. January and February have been so eventful that just thinking seriously about the implications of the events was not possible: something came right along to cancel any prediction or conclusion one may have had (or at the very least to force a review). I like to think about things because I like to have a reasonably definite opinion. Over the years I think this served me well. This January I would have had to change more than once..... And I observed that many journalists did not bother correcting themselves (I am looking at you NYT, among others but you were a repeat offender).

Then again I was very active on twitter, the only way to follow the cascade of events.

So perhaps it is time for a summary of sorts now that things flow at a more normal pace.

What has not changed: the will of the regime to hold on.

That will was impressive, from the failed taking over the National Assembly on January 5 to the abduction of Guaido uncle at the airport on charges that he would have fooled airport security in Lisbon to carry explosive in a pocket light. Oh! He was also supposed to have a CIA contact on his cellular phone.

The reason remain the same: would they have to leave Miraflores Palace their crimes are too numerous to avoid jail. I am even wondering what country would offer them safe exile.....

What was wished to change.

The problem when January came was the leadership of the opposition in disarray. Hoping to oust Maduro by mid 2019 they had to accept the fact that it did not happen, nor the fact they did not know how to effect the change. As a result there was a conspiracy of sorts to discredit Juan Guaido, blaming him for everything, including things upon which he could not have any influence.

We got two serious attempts.

One was coming from the desire of the rather radical right that follows Maria Corina Machado. Very strong on social networks it remains that outside these networks they amounted to little. Once you leave Caracas the reality of the provinces puts you well away from the ideological concepts promoted by her followers. Real life is a bitch: outside Caracas it trumps tweeter. Their potential for destructive harm is strong but their failure about building an alternative is bigger.

The other one came from are a conglomerate of failed "opposition" groups that have decided to throw their lot behind a negotiation with the regime. They had meetings and declarations and photo ops but no results. The fact of the matter is that all together they amount to little: the country knows who is who. Negotiating with the regime again and again led nowhere. The only negotiation still possible, someday, is establish how and when Maduro and his combo will leave the country into exile. The regime has tried to create an opposition they like, going as far as a National Assembly coup. All for naught: useless mercenaries.

What is far from changing.

The leadership of Guaido.

The guy came weakened to the January 5 formal renewing of his mandate at the National Assembly. Yet the clumsiness of the regime barring entry to the opposition leadership, the images of Guaido trying to climb above the fences, the images from the chavista paid thugs all around the NA, and those of the passivity of the armed forces in front of chavista abuses, when not supporting them, did wonders for Guaido. On January 6 he got back part of his idol shine, all the opposition behind him, and renewed and expanded international support. Only Russia recognized the usurpers at the NA. It iss rumored that they exerted pressure to have it happen. Talk about a petard blowing on your face!

A recast Guaido then escaped the country for a grand tour that made him THE leader of the opposition. That is, from those trying to collaborate with the regime to Maria Corina Machado, they received the clear message that Guaido was the chosen opposition leader. Period. "Deal with Guaido first if you want to talk with us" is the message.

Guaido attended a summit in Colombia and was received by it president with state honors (and met a whole bunch of Latin American big wigs).
Then he went to Europe where he was received by: UK prime minister, French president, EU foreign representative, Davos where he was seen with the chancellors of Germany and Austria and the prime ministers of the Netherlands and Greece (that I remember now -1-).
Then he flew to North America starting with Canada where not only he was received by its prime minister, but attended a parliament session.
From there he took off to the US of A where a major secret plan awaited. No agenda was announced. Many salivated at the idea that just perhaps he would be received through the back door, or less (you know who you are). Instead they were surprised by Guaido being honored at the State of the Union address. A divided government found its only moment of unity when all, from Democrats to Republicans, stood up to salute Guaido. From then on he got state honors for a long visit at the White House. Next day the Speaker of the house received him. All of this stressed that not only the US approach to Venezuela is a fully bipartisan matter, but that Guiado was the chosen one for the transition as the lone opposition leader worth their time.

What may be about to change.

There are, of course, many implications to all of this.

First, the regime is furious. A few days before the trip of Guaido Maduro gave an interview to the WaPo where he played it self sufficient and in control and willing to talk to Trump. Well, that ended there.

Amen that the political crisis in Spain started when the Maduro envoy was barred from leaving Madrid airport. She is under international sanctions and as such barred from entering Europe. It hit all of them home: sanctions are real and if they have to make a unplanned stop in an unfriendly country, jail awaits them (they do travel a lot to Turkey for shady business, for example).

Second, after the international reception Guaido received things had to move. Europe is hopelessly slow but signs point out to actions (the EU parliament pre-approved them during Guaido grand tour). The UK now out of EU may act faster, we'll see. But all eyes are on the U.S., THE player here. Actions started: sanctions on Russia's Rosfnet oil concern have started. Chavista airline Conviasa is all but grounded. And more is in the works. Russia is certainly furious and China not sympathetic, but with Syria and Coronavirus they are not in the best moment for an active defense of Maduro....

Third, the regime is starting to move against Guaido, sort of untouchable until now. From his uncle arrested on no charges, to chavista gun men thugs pointing at him in the streets it seems that the regime is building up the resolve to kill Guaido. Jailing him could actually be worse for the regime I would dare to suggest...

Coming March will be Ides time. A massive movement is demanded by Guaido to the country on March 10. If he succeeds in bringing people back to the streets in protest it could well be the reckoning time: either the regime starts killing in earnest, or real negotiations may start. The amount of blood spilled will depend on what the international community does until March 10.

--------------------------------------------

-1- the only major player that did not want to receive Guaido was the president of Spain who in exchange had to face a major political crisis!

Hyper-inflated arepa index reaches all time high (again)

moctavio — Fri, 09 Mar 2018 04:02:37 GMT

My only remaining connection to Venezuela is the arepa index, also called the hyper-inflated arepa index, which was created as a way of keeping tabs on inflation. Boy, little did I know how it would grow!
The arepa cost 385,000 Bs on February 27. This gives a new all time high for the inflation rate since the cost was 225,000 Bs last month, which translates to a 73% per month increase. The previous record was 29% per month calculated at the end of January, which actually was an average over the previous two months. I thank my friend for sending the numbers to me. While he ate the arepa, I did not, we are using the same calculation methodology as before. God save the country with that inflation! But it seems that unless Maduro leaves and the economy is fixed, there can be no saving the country!!

That´s my opinion!

Hyper inflated arepa index hits an all time high

moctavio — Thu, 01 Feb 2018 03:48:35 GMT

A good friend just reported back to me that on Jan 27 the price of my usual queso de mano arepa bought at my favorite arepera was 225,000 Bs., up from essentially two months earlier when it was 35.000 bolivars, for a rise of roughly 270% a month!

Although some months I did not measure it because of my accident, the hyper inflated arepa index hit an all time high. It is a record which is indicative of prices in my country, Venezuela. Inflation is running at an all time high as measured by this index and is a reflection of the bad economic policies.

The timing of this report coincides with progress in my recovery: I am feeling somewhat better.

The friend reported the arepa was as good as ever!

The devil is back with UII

moctavio — Sat, 25 Nov 2017 21:15:20 GMT

A friend, LFU, came to visit and asked me “Do you want me to get you the price of the arepa?”. I said yes, but you have to find the same arepa and arepera. It is queso de mano at GHA. He went on Nov 20th and found the price to be “only” Bs. 35,000 a full 2100 times that last time on July 20th. 2016, before my accident. Little did I know that statistics would be ruined by the accident. (Of which I am better). That is a full 29% per month roughly.

This agrees with what people feel and with estimates of Torino capital of inflation.

Of course, I don’t know whether the arepas were similar or not, but I thougt the record needed to be completed.

Why doesn’t the government change course?

moctavio — Mon, 17 Apr 2017 20:18:07 GMT

Do you ever wonder why Maduro does not give up?

He could do so many things. But he is not wired that way. He. wants power.

Not since the Ukraine has there been a case like Venezuela and it is evident the government knows history.

A change in style? Regime change.

Change in terms of the debt? Regime change.

Devaluation? Regime change.

The only path that does not lead to regime change is if the price of oil goes back up. And they know it.
When Chavez got to power debt was $22 billion. It rose supported by higher oil prices. That Is all. Chavizmo borrowed right and left as oil prices rose. Debt went from $20 some billion to $70.1 billion while Chavizmo was in power. And with oil at $150 a barrel, it was not only payable, they could skim a little. And they did.

But now with oil back at $50 or less, there is not enough money. So unless oil goes up, Venezuela can’t survive unless there is change, from the top.

But change implies a different model, a devaluation, but it all leads to regime change if you read history. So, they stay the course. Worse case, oil stay at its current level and there is regime change. And unhappy Venezuelans.

Earlier, there was the possibility of an economic stabilization fund but money, which would now be over $200 billion, was not saved. So another opportunity was lost.

Yes, we could default. But guess what: it would lead to regime change. That is history again.

There you have it. Most roads lead to regime change. And with collective clauses on the PDVSA debt, it would be messy for this government to swing a default.

So, they are personally rich, beyond your imagination. And they wait. That is the plan!

If all else fails there is always the money they stole. Just in case!

Something Has To Give

moctavio — Sat, 01 Apr 2017 15:37:38 GMT

(I wrote this post a week ago, but had no Internet)

It’s really a tragedy. The price of oil shot up and Chavez took advantage of it. He also produced more and took advantage of it again, producing heavy crudes. And sent lots to China in exchange for cash. He got more of the oil. And he bartered it, sold it and played with it and the oil companies. He toyed with the exchange rate, making it unsustainably low. He allowed the government to sell US dollars cheap. The government used one rate. Everyone else had to use a different one.

But then he died. And the oil price went down.

Nobody would lend Venezuela money. And everyone seemed against it.

And then Fidel died.

And then Trump won.

Everything changed…

For how long..?

That is the question. Maduro does not have it easy.

His front man got caught. Chavez got away with many, many front men. And he played with the debt, which Maduro can’t.

When will things change?

I don’t know, but they will.

Not enough oil. Not enough money. Just wait. It is a matter of time.

Nobody is Chavista just because. There is money to be made, but it is getting harder. You need know-how, which they don’t have. They had it easy for a while.

So, they start again. Except it is harder this time.

Something has to give.

A letter from my sister

moctavio — Thu, 09 Mar 2017 00:06:03 GMT

I dont’t want to make this blog about me. But my country is falling apart and I haven’t lived there since my accident so what special knowledge do I have?

But I have had wonderful experiences in having people show their appreciation and they have moved me. They really liked me!

I have mentioned some of them. Like waking up and noticing that people are surprised I was alive. Or my Santiago de Leon classmates whom I left many decades ago, getting together, and sending a picture hoping that I would wake up.

But nothing beats this letter from my sister, my little sister Beatriz. She wrote it while I was in coma and gave it to me last week. She shows she loves me and the letter is superb. I am Mickey in it, a nickname she uses sometimes. The letter is amazing and you can imagine how I felt reading it! I love her!

“My beloved brother. My Mickey.

I can’t believe what is happening. I feel trapped in a nightmare! I have felt the most profound sadness!. My heart hurts. I beg God and life, that you wake up and that one day you are able to read these lines.

I know you know that I love you with all my heart. I have no regrets with you. We have given each other only beautiful things. I tell you that I love you deeply, every time I see you. I always find you terribly handsome and I have always let you know. I have caressed you’re thin grey hair a thousand times. I have the prettiest memories with you. Always laughing. So many good times. Travels. Dinners. Wine and more wine. The best conversations.

I remember that January, our traditional New Year’s barbecue. I called you to ask if I could bring Fran. You answered: your happiness is my happiness. I love you brother.

Doctors don’t know your head! It is not any brain. It is the most extraordinary brain I have met. I dream about you every night. And it is recurrent the dream where we talk about what happened. You tell me the few things that you remember. I tell you that Andres was the one who called me with the news. That we were having dinner with Ariadna. With Ari, with whom we used to go to Atlantic City together. I tell you that we took the first plane to Fort Lauderdale. That we left José alone in NY. I tell you about Kathy. How sweet it was to see her love for you. The hope we felt when we talked to you and you moved your hand. I kissed you so much in that intensive care bed. I kissed your hands. I kissed your feet. I begged you to open your eyes. We laughed about the fact that you had spent three months without drinking wine. In my dreams, I see you opening a magnum of Pesquera. Celebrating the miracle that you are.

I love you Mickey.

I feel thankful for every instant that we have shared! For every visit when I lived in NY. For your red with purple dots underwear. For each vacation in Turks. For each Saturday that you visited us in Tente-allá. For doing the monkey for me. For each barbecue! For the time we spent on the jacuzzi. For each wine. For each dinner. For the “Abadía de la retuerta”. For Venice. For biking in Italy. For your generosity. For your intelligence. For every laugh. For X and Y’s (names redacted here for privacy) story! ! For everything. For so much. For your example.

This has been a very painful process. The idea of loosing you is unbearable. I have felt infinite sadness. I can’t loose you. I don’t accept it.

Open your eyes, brother, we have so much life to share still. Open your eyes, brother, there are still many elections ahead and they all remind me of you. Open your eyes, Migue, we are going to Croatia. Open your eyes, because I need you. Because I can’t imagine being without you. Open your eyes, because I am on your team for whatever is to come. Because you are going to have so much love and support. Open your eyes. Together we can handle anything. Open your eyes, please, Mickey.

I love you

Bea”

That’s it, lovely isn’t it? I cried when I read it!

The Devil thought he was immortal

moctavio — Sun, 26 Feb 2017 16:15:20 GMT

Up to August 6th, The Devil thought he was immortal. No more. That day he was on a bicycle in boca raton, and was hit by a car. My wife was biking with me, but she was ahead and wondered where I was. By the time she found me, I was unconscious and a long recovery began. I was with no consciousness for almost a month. I went to two additional hospitals and lived with tubes for a while.

It has been six months…

I spent time in an inpatient rehabilitation hospital. I first remember waking up and noticed that people were very happy I was there. That is how close I came.

Since then it has been a fight to recover. I am better but not fine. And I have discovered I am not immortal but mortal.

Whether I want it or not.

People have been amazing. Truly amazing!

I have heard from so many people! Some I had fogotten about!

Classmates of mine from elementary school got together and took a picture of themselves with a sign wishing me a speedy recovery. It has been remarkable!

I must say I never heard biking was so dangerous, not one of the trips I took said it. I thought it was safe! I went down a volcano in Hawaii at 65 mph!

But The Devil is better. Not perfect, but recovering! Slowly, but surely!

It has been six moths, but I am improving, albeit slowly!

Will I ever be the same? I don’t know, but I will work hard. For my family, my friends and co workers. For my wife. They believed in me, I will show them.

I may never get back to performing the same. But people have shown they liked me. My life was not a waste. I will bring this blog back! And the orchid blog too! My country is no longer viable. I wonder what would have happened if it had happened there! But it would have made me not functional, so I try not to think about that.

So your Devil is back! Reduced but I will try to improve.

Thanks to the people at Healthsouth Rehab, Sunrise, Fl who took me in so warmly and without knowing me have brought me back! I will make them proud!

We shall return

moctavio — Tue, 04 Oct 2016 19:21:08 GMT

The Devil has been silent for the last few months. Last summer, he was struck by a car while riding his bicycle and suffered a traumatic brain injury. He was in critical condition for several weeks and continued in acute care for another month but is now medically stable enough to have started physical and cognitive in-patient rehabilitation treatment. Please keep him in your thoughts and prayers.

Dedicated To Venezuela’s Political Prisoners, Those Persecuted and Those In Exile

moctavio — Sun, 31 Jul 2016 14:52:55 GMT

My good friend Maruja dedicates this video to Venezuela’s Political prisoners, those persecuted and those in exile

Thoughts On The Venezuela-Colombia Border

moctavio — Wed, 20 Jul 2016 02:57:38 GMT

Venezuelans crowd the Simon Bolivar bridge in the border with Colombia waiting for its opening to go buy food and supplies there.

I have been fascinated by the events at the Venezuela-Colombia border for the last two weekends, as the Government decided to open a relief valve and let Venezuelans go over to Colombia for the day to shop. The scenes have been fascinating, but more importantly, the political, social and most of all, economic significance of what we have seen is simply riveting.

Start with the fact that the Government shut down the border a year ago in order to supposedly stop contraband from Venezuela to Colombia. An explanation which was simply grandstanding, as the contraband flows through the hundreds of unpaved paths (trochas) that criss-cross the border under the watchful eye (and sponsorship) of the Venezuelan military. Thus it was simply a remarkably sight, as well as lesson to the Government, to see an estimated 135,000 Venezuelans cross the border this weekend alone, in order to purchase the food, medicines and supplies that they can no longer buy in their own country.

This is exactly the opposite of what the Government had shut down the border for.

But the more important lesson is how Colombia´s distribution system is so much more superior to the Venezuelan one by allowing markets to run things. Not only can Colombia feed Colombians, but border supermarkets did quite a good job in providing food for 135,000 Venezuelans overnight. Yes, they did run out of some stuff, which was not unexpected, but there was also a transportation strike which influenced the fact that some supermarkets actually run out.

And imagine how many Venezuelans had to feel to have to go to Colombia to buy that very Venezuelan product Harina Pan, which was not only fully stocked on the other side, but to the surprise of many that were not aware of it, it was actually made in Colombia and was made there by the Venezuelan company that the Chavista Government has demonized so much: Industrias Polar. Not only do markets work, but companies can move from one country to another looking for the best conditions to operate in. A lesson Maduro and his cronies simply will not understand.

Venezuelans buy Colombian’made Harina Pan in Colombia at roughly a dollar a package

And Colombia´s distribution system is better because it is orders of magnitude more efficient than Venezuela´s. Whether a product is imported or made there, companies can buy foreign currency and then proceed to deal with the their processes to deliver the product to the consumer. In contrast, the Venezuelan manufacturer has to deal with a supply chain, a control chain and a corruption chain.

Because at every step in Venezuela, from the request for foreign currency, to the request for certificates of having paid taxes, to a certificate of non-production in Venezuela, to requesting the foreign currency, to receiving approval, to having the stuff arrive, to have the stuff be brought out of the port, to have the stuff trucked to the factory of distribution point, etc, etc, etc.; at each of these steps there will be an official to get through, an office to stamp a seal or give approval, an official asking for money, a gestor (agent) that needs to be paid, a peaje (toll) to be complied with.

And each step adds costs and time to the process to the delivery of goods.

And it is not much different for the Government. Each ship of meat, grains or whatever needs to be accompanied by the approval of the appropriate General that decides how many Tons of each should be bought, which then jumps to the next step so that another General approves the payment. and once the boat arrives, it takes days to unload, to truck it out of the port and begin a distribution chain that has all of the same problems that the private one has, as stuff is deviated, stolen, smuggled out of the country and given to those that can pay money to to those in charge of the distribution system

But Chavismo refuses to see reality. Each time their Rube Goldbergeresque distribution and supply system fails to deliver, they decide to add a layer, assign a General to the new position and simply ignore economic reality and their own failure.

And the crowds going across the bridge were politically charged. An image for the rest of Venezuela and Venezuelans of over a hundred thousand people voting with their feet, taking their hard earned savings to buy their food in Colombia, food that not only they can´t buy in Venezuela, but that many were surprised as to how many items were actually cheaper on the other side of the border.

How can any Government use this image for its advantage? How can it possible erase it from people´minds come election time?

And at the same time, the images were broadcast around the world, clearly demonstrating the opposite of what the Government contends: There is indeed a crisis in Venezuela and Venezuelans are not being fed by a fairly wealthy but inefficient and corrupt Government.

And as I watched the scenes, I could not help but wonder about the economic implications of the shopping spree outside the country. How much did each person spend? How did they pay? How much was it for personal consumption, how much for bachaqueo? How do the merchants turn the Bolivars into pesos or dollars?

I confess I don´t have all the answers. I do know that people paid largely in Bolivars. I also know human nature. I am sure that people that waited hours to cross that bridge did not do so just to spend Bs. 10,000 (US$10 at the parallel rate) or to find a single item like toilet paper or toothpaste.

Look at this man for example:

Man crosses back into Venezuela with a bike full of goods

The man may be an outlier (or a bachaquero), but he is certainly carrying a lot of goods in that bike. My guess is a few hundred dollars. But let´s assume it is much less on average. Let´s say the average Venezuelan carried US$100 in Bolivars across the border. This turns out to be US$ 13.5 million. Believe it or not, this is a large amount in Venezuela these days for the black market. Thus, I have no idea how the Colombian merchants could possible hope to convert this money back into Pesos or US$ swiftly. Moreover, I don´t see how they could have done so without the paralell rate of exchange increasing significantly.

But there has been little movement on the black market rate so far.

So, what gives? How did they do it? Because these border people are sophisticated when it comes to taking currency risks. They just don´t do it!

My guess at this time, absent any other theory, is that it may have been the Venezuelan Government that provided the hard currency. Since the Government planned the opening, prepared this sort of relief valve, it must have been aware of the possible pressure on the black market and excess liquidity and provided funds to the money exchangers at the border. This not only make sense, but lest you think that they are too dumb for that, remember that when it comes to guisos and graft, these guys are the best there is. I welcome any other alternate explanation.

Meanwhile, while this scenes were visibly reported, it is less well known that in Zulia State, just north of the pictures above, the Governor has promoted contraband from Colombia to Venezuela, purposedly looking the other way as the stuff is smuggled. Maracaibo and Zulia supermarkets are full of Colombian products at Colombian prices, a clear indication that at least some in Government have realized that allowing markets to work may be the best thing for Chavismo at this time.

Meanwhile, the Governor of Tachira State said that he would not open the border this week, giving him arbitrary power over the border, arguing he does not want to disturb the effort by both Governments to have a peaceful border. The reality is that the Colombian Foreign Minister said that the border will not be opened until it this becomes a permanent status. Nothing could be more logical than that.

For now, reopening the border will likely lead to much better supplies in Venezuela, but will certainly put pressure on the black market rate. As soon as the reopening is formally announced, many new businesses will set up on the other side of the border, where markets function and there is the rule of law.

Meanwhile, Maduro and his Government have been completely exposed as a total farce and failure. It is Colombia that can provide us with food and supplies. And Venezuelans are desperate enough to wait for hours to get to the other side…