Venezuela News And Views

Weil on Russia weapon sales

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 08:16:44 -0500

And as usual Weil brings us the simple perspective on the real problems of Chavez. He seeks imaginary enemies when the real one for him is rampaging behind his back. Read preceding two posts if you do not get it.
-The end-

And yet another outrage: Russia is offered military bases in Venezuela

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 23:35:39 -0500

The outrage today is that an exuberant Chavez offered Russia to place a military base in Venezuela. That is right, Venezuela who has never hosted any military base from any country since its independence, who has never been invaded by any country directly, who has been subjected at most to blockade and some mercenary expeditions, is now about to invite the Russian to set up whatever military facility they want to settle somewhere here. And let's not mention the free running FARC and the thousands of Cuban invaders under the pretext of humanitarian help. No other president in Venezuela history has given for nothing chunks of Venezuelan sovereignty as Chavez has done under his ten years tenure. History of course will judge him harshly for that.

But I am not going to go into a rant about Chavez now confirmed as a "vende patria". No, not at all. To begin with the Russian know much better and they are using for their sake the Venezuelan joker that cannot pass an occasion to make a head line, no matter how stupid he looks in that head line. If there is anyone who ever applied the principle of "there is no such thing as bad publicity" it is Chavez. By sheer idiocy or outmost Machiavellian inclination, it does not matter, he applies the dictum.

See, the Russian are kind of mad a the US lately. Some radar anti missile system in the Check Republic or something. So, there comes that clown form Latin America, a new breed of "arrastra cueros", willing to spend all of its nation currency reserves on second rate weapons (that is right, there is a rumor that Chavez might be spending up to 30 billion USD in weapons just as the country's infrastructure is crumbling and food items are missing). And low and behold, that clown invites them to set a base in Venezuela!!

Russia is now a second rank country. True, it could climb up again as a first rank country but technologically, socially and economically we are talking at least a decade or two before it could even compete with Japan or Germany. Russia also has the Chinese threat, has problems in Ukraine and Central Asia. All that in its own borders, never minding small pain in the neck countries such as Georgia and Chechnya. And Russia would come and set a military base in Venezuela? To threaten to control the oil flow out of Puerto La Cruz or the Orinoco?

The Russian know very well a casus belli when they see one and if they are going to go to war with the US they have much, much better reasons than Venezuela which has nothing to offer to them except cold cash. Chavez might be dumb enough to miss that point but the Russians do not miss it: no one in the world is going to lift a finger against Venezuela as long as Venezuela sells its oil to the US. And if Venezuela does not want anymore to ship its oil to the US and can find new buyers, it is OK because that means the US will be able to find new providers. As long as there is a transition period the US will have no problem dropping its dependence on a clown. In the commodity and fungible goods market the important thing is that the goods flow. Who cares where they come from? But threaten to turn off one of the spigots and you will see what happens.

Chavez does know that at some level, no matter how confused and infantile his mind might be. The proof is that the Iraq horror notwithstanding, Chavez posturing stops at stopping oil supply to the US. Only a few misguided leftist souls in the world take Chavez words seriously when he threatens the US of A. No Senator int he US so far has lost much sleep over Chavez once they took the real measure of the man.

This is where we are at: Chavez accepts to do the dirty work for the Russians while HE IS THE ONE paying them. And even more humiliating, , he combines that truly outrageous weapon buying spree (and all the fat commissions for the abject military serving him and having our boys killed in Bolivia for nothing) with a begging stop in Spain at the summer residence of the King to try to put behind the "porque no te callas!".

That is another reason why Chavez will never leave office peacefully: he knows very well that as soon as he becomes a civilian again he will go to jail for all that he cost the country. People are starting to wake up, as you could see on TV this week as protests for harsh living conditions grow: no one in "el pueblo" is amused by his European trip...

-The end-

Where is the outrage?

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 08:31:52 -0500

Today we got evidence that Chavez is just your average imperialist.

A Venezuelan helicopter falls in Bolivia and 4 Venezuelan military died

OK, so shit happens.

It can be a bomb in Iraq or a soldier passing with a heat induced heart attack at a military parade anywhere in the world, including Venezuela. But what happened in Bolivia Monday cannot be justified. A Venezuelan helicopter crashed killing its 5 occupants, 4 of them military personnel from Venezuela. Apparently that helicopter was on permanent service to Evo Morales, to jump all around the country for his political activities.

There is so much wrong with all of that.....

How come a Venezuelan helicopter is at the permanent disposal of Evo Morales? How come there was only one Bolivian in it? Who allowed for that? What was the justification? Could we not have made a "loan" for Morales to buy his own flying machine with his own people? Is Morales so short of personnel he can trust? How many more questions like that do I have to ask before a PSF finally mutters something?

Does the Venezuelan military realize how poor an image they have already with all the graft and corruption they allow, to add now that 4 of our boys died for a cause we do not know, do not share, do not relate with? Truly, when we get out of this nightmare we will have to consider the future role of the Venezuelan army and think about a Costa Rican solution. Personally my militant anti militarism has long made me dislike deeply the Venezuelan army but now I hope that this feeling is going to percolate more in the population as they are dragged into the reality of what the Venezuelan Army has become.

Because let's face it: the Venezuelan army is allowing the president to use its material, its boys, to help a political campaign in a foreign country. These boys were killed NOT on a humanitarian mission, NOT defending the country, NOT rescuing people from a natural disaster, they were killed to satisfy Chavez international megalomania.

The Venezuelan army is accountable for that, NOT really Chavez. He is just using the pusillanimity of military officers that are getting rich and fat. The real murderers are at the defense ministry, not at Miraflores. I beg to disagree with a retired generals that today tried to put the blame only on Chavez. NO, the blame is on the current army chiefs of staff, they are the one allowing their boys being manipulated. They could have said NO to Chavez, asked him to send the helicopter after a fake sale if necessary. But no, they wanted to be seen in the glory of political activism, with excuses for junket trips to drink and whore around in Bolivia, when they cannot even carry troops to the Colombian border.

140 cars for the Venezuelan embassy in La Paz

To add insult to injury we also got another piece of news. The Venezuelan government received an authorization by the Bolivian government to import duty free 140 cars for the use of the Venezuelan embassy in La Paz. 140 f*****g cars!

How can the Bolivian government deprive itself from the revenue of this imported cars? Is Bolivia that rich suddenly? And what the f***k the Venezuelan embassy needs 140 cars for? Does ANY embassy in Caracas has 140 cars at its disposition? Even in Washington DC? And guess what? After a while Venezuela will give these cars to Bolivians NGO!!!!!! What criteria will be chosen to select the benefited NGO? And will Venezuelan petty tyrants in La Paz get new cars every year?

But you know what? Last time a country did such type of things it was the US in Latin America, although they did it with more tact and discretion than the loud Venezuelans who we are told are increasingly hated for their arrogance in Bolivia. The US did learn its lesson eventually, Chavez never will.

At least there was a good piece of news today: justice eventually comes. War criminal Radovan Karadzic has finally been arrested.

-The end-

The VN&V survey results

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 00:18:47 -0500

As expected within barely a day and a half, on a low Saturday, the 100 slots of the first survey were filled and I can have fun this Sunday evening looking at the results. However curiously the second survey is still not filled up! I suppose that some folks did not realize that there was a second part. So please, finish up your work, or if you did not get into the first survey, you still can sneak in the second survey which is about what you like in this blog and what you would like to see. Link is here.

Before I get into the results, the nature of the replies confirmed my original guess: the readers that replied are definitely the regular ones, those that find time during the week end to check out this blog, the target I needed when I have only 100 answers available because I am too cheap to spend my CADIVI dollars.

If VN&V readers elected a parliament

The first surprise in the results came from the political composition of the readership. Thus I must start by discussing this aspect because I think it does also explain some of the other replies.

The graph below shows what would be the political profile of a VN&V congress. Clearly no stable majority is possible to rule the blog.

The big surprise here is the large, very large proportion of people who describe themselves as Libertarians. I confess that I am rather surprised. But also I am happy to see that the readers diversity is large, at least politically wise, in plain contradiction to PSF arguments that assumed that we were all a whole bunch of right wing nuts for not supporting Chavez.

Libertarians cannot really be classified right or left as they are very Liberal on many social issues and outrank Conservatives on many economic issues, thus I put them all the way to the right because well, I had to put them somewhere. Whatever it is, I think that this distribution perhaps reflects some of the contradictions of this blog writer, who describes himself as a mix of Libertarian and Liberal US sense. I suppose that you all find something to relate with when I discuss Venezuelan murky politics.

Just for the sake of it, I separated the US respondents from the other (they were the largest group). There the political diversity still exists but clearly the US readers are much more Conservative than the rest of the world (curiously some of you described yourself in European Political terms: a mistake or wishful thinking?). Also, we have much work to do still with US Liberals who tend to follow their misguided movie stars a little bit too much.

VN&V an elitist blog?

Well, we could be afraid of such. When we look at the background of regular readers, a whopping 60% of you claim to have a post college education. You know, PhD, Law school, MD, MBA and the like. Though from the comment box in that question I also got this: "2 years university, plumbing and construction now" which shows that you do not need a college degree to "get" the blog :). And this reader in addition claims to know about the blog for at least three years and reads it daily. Some of you PhD did not mark that ....

Regular readers are regular

67% of you visit once a day. 17% of you have followed VN&V since the beginning and 36% for at least three years. 8 % for only a few moths. There are two lectures here: VN&V has a hard time to make new readers, but once they are hooked, they stay. This is really something very gratifying for me and I wish to thank you very much for such loyalty.

But if readers are so regulars, does that make them "groupies"?

Well, not really. True, 29% consider me as a guru of sorts, but 58% satisfied themselves with a "like it". What was more reassuring is that only 10% had VN&V as one of their major source of information (already too high a number). In fact readers know exactly why they come for: 43% to "understand" (which means they already got the info) and 34% to confirm their opinions (they consider VN&V as the site that best match their opinion which I assume they formed them before they discovered the blog, or at least I hope). Note: 7% were forward enough to state that they read VN&V because they feel they have to.

Who are you?

One thing that was dispiriting is that I got only 22% female readers. Better than Quico, true, but too low for my taste. I also got an older readership than Quico which is not surprising as I do not seek debate and challenge for the sake of it, preferring to expose my ideas and wait for approval or disaproval. I suppose that since I am older than Quico I have passed my days of arguing needlessly, simply not having time or energy for that (I suppose I spent my arguing energy doing my PhD). I also assume that my readers are knowledgeable enough to seek tic for tac debate elsewhere when they feel the urge for it. With a 40% older than 50, and 11% less than 30, it is quite clear.

As I guessed very few of you bothered with the ehtnic question. I thought a lot before putting it but I knew that for many in the US it is an interesting thing (watch the current campaign for those who doubt it).

I did put a "control" question. Gays and Lesbians are assumed to be in the US between 3% to 10% of the population depending on how exclusively homosexual people describe themselves. Since I had on occasion discussed gay issues in Venezuela or anti Semitic attitudes of chavismo I decided to sneak in the Gay/Lesbian question. 5% of you marked it. Thus the readers who replied are representative at least on that respect. All of you gays seem to be in the US, by the way.

On the religious thing only half of you replied. As an agnostic myself and someone with little patience with hard core believers, in particular chavismo, I was curious to see how many of yourself described yourself as "believers": 24%. Note, I was delicate enough not to ask for a religion name, faith is faith. On the other hand Agnostics, my whimsical question among all, claim to be 29%. It could either be that many of you confused Agnosticism with Atheism or simply because so many of you are post college graduates and in the hard sciences (30%) that it skews the Agnosticism number. Indeed, campuses are known as an agnostic haven.

Do we communicate?

The surprise here, as in Quico too, is that only 16% of you cannot read Spanish. So, why are we all discussing in English? Is it to keep the chavista riffraff out? Are we just snobs? Or do we prefer English because we can remain more polite and civil in a language which rawness we never quite got to master? I think that I prefer the last one...

However this has already an immediate application: I will not be afraid now to introduce directly text in Spanish without translation, at least when pressed for time. I might also start translating some of the posts into Spanish instead of opening a new blog, something that I was meaning to do but could never face. After the "NO to the Reforma blog", I do not want to be managing more than a blog.

As for other languages, 13% of you claim French, and 6% German. Thus I can keep using in moderation a little bit of French here and there. Also three of you claim Papiamento, as readers from the Netherlands Antilles. Your number might be low, but considering how few you are in these rocks, you might actually be one of the proportionally largest groups here! And a wit spoke Cuti :)

Citizen/Resident

Limited to ten questions I tried to combine the citizenship with the residency question. As expected the largest contingent is form the US, 39%, to which we probably must add a significant amount of the Venezuelan bi-national ensconced in Miami, a surprisingly high 24%. If Africa got 0, the big disappointment for me was Latin America with only 4%. From the Rio Grande to Patagonia, Venezuela is not high on our kindred agenda. Venezuela only, EU and UK+ countries were roughly the same percentages. Though I think here residency and citizenship do not coincide judging from my stat counters which give me consistently a 25% readers INSIDE Venezuela. All in all probably the most "failed" question as no solid info could be gathered except perhaps for the high amounts of bi-nationals.

Do you like Chavez?

Readers of this blog are crystal clear about what Chavez represent: 65% of you replied yes to "I think he is an autocrat, and he could become worse". Only 1 person thought highly of Chavez. Maybe chavistas have truly stopped reading? Or maybe they are not so sure about he man anymore? by the way, on the political question no one claimed to be pro Castro pro Pinochet, bless your hearts!

Libertarians

Coming back on this group. 76% of you are post college degree and 43% Agnostic. Please, write to the Libertarian Party of America to put a sponsored link on my blog :)

Miscellaneous

Some of the comments in the open boxes.

Point of view of someone in the provinces. Main reason, actually...

I'm just a house wife deeply perturbed by Venezuelan politics!

Getting main points of Colombia on same price

I enjoy your all rounded insights. You have a good handle on what is happening in Venezuela and you relate it so well in your blog. [OK, OK, I can pat myself once, no?]

Your blog gives an excellent perspective of the current situation in Venezuela. I also enjoy your writing style, it has the right combination of being informative and witty.

Indian languages, Yanomamö and Sanema

To finish

Comments on second survey when it is done.

Sorry if this post looks a little bit at times like Quico's. But we do work on the same material, and thus the coincidences are actually interesting, as well as the differences.

-The end-

Chavez defeat of the day

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 21:24:04 -0500

Maybe I am going to have to start a new feature to keep track of the increasing numbers of Chavez defeats on the foreign policy front. The news today is Lula visit to Colombia and its deep meaning about the position of Chavez in Latin America these days.

The picture above is of Lula, Uribe and Peru's Garcia with Shakira on the mic singing Colombia's national anthem. They were in Leticia, on the Colombian Amazon, signing agreements including their engagement to secure the Amazon basin. They also were there presiding some of Colombia Independence days events. A visibly emotive Lula even said a few verses. Lula spent two days in Colombia whereas he was in Venezuela for a very few hours, just to sign some business deal, probably cashing some of the money Chavez owed him.

You may draw your own conclusions, but there is one that is pretty clear: Uribe is now a Latin American leader, to the grief of a few I am sure.

-The end-

Out of the ghetto?

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 19:22:57 -0500

The best political article this weekend can be found in the fluff Sunday magazine of El Nacional. Rafael Osorio Cabrices meditates on how slowly but surely sectors of the Venezuelan society have allowed themselves to be trapped in new urban ghettos. He has in mind, in this very Caracas centered country, folks that live in some areas of Caracas Eastern Part and who spend their own lives in that area, except when they go on vacation one supposes. (1)

It is indeed a fact of life that all conspires for you to remain inside your own "safety" area, safety in this case meaning the area that you know best, rather than the area where you are actually can be safe. Be it from crime, or because of dirt and garbage everywhere, or because the side walks are often taken over by buhoneros, or simply because you do not want to get addressed by the political attitudes of some areas, most people seem to simply isolate themselves within a few neighborhoods where they know how to maneuver, how to hide, how to escape. If this phenomenon has been seen for the Eastern Part of Caracas where many consider Plaza Venezuela as a real border, it is also seen for folks in lower classes who limit themselves to outings at the few malls accessible by subway directly from Petare or El Silencio. These malls seem to have become the only modern Agora of Venezuela, the only arena where two worlds meet, even though their income differences are not necessarily so different, or even their political views are not that distant. We are talking here of a new cultural development of unpredictable consequences, and I suspect welcome by the chavista administration who has been busy trying any possible way to congeal its electorate.

I suppose that in a way I have escaped some of that self ghettoizing. After all in San Felipe there is no ghetto, all through Chavez years I have had to face the reality of the country day in and day out. Thus when I visit Caracas I have no major problem stepping past Plaza Venezuela for a Saturday lunch at a La Candelaria tasca. Still I must confess that if my mental border is not Plaza Venezuela, it is probably Plaza Bolivar as Catia has not seen me in 20 years except when I drive by on my way to the airport.

I will translate part of that Osio article:

But we almost do not see the city. And the city remains there. There is no wild forest past the EPA of Chacaito nor a sea of monsters beyond the B.O. Center. What there is is people. We are not necessarily going to be robbed when we cross the border that fear nailed between our eyes. We are missing the renovation of the historical district, that we must celebrate, and the recovery of Sabana Grande. Just as we are missing the Arab food joints of Catia, the guayaberas of Guaicaipuro market, the potters of Cementerio and El Pinar park.

We feel superior than those who live in the provinces when in fact we move aorund an area smaller than La Victoria.

I am not sure about the Arab food joints of Catia, after all I know of at least two great Lebanese joints in Chacao, but the point is well taken, in particular the second paragraph. I often get real angry when I start discussing politics visiting Caracas, as people think their, certainly justified, anger against Chavez and his government is shared as is by we, the provincials. We might dislike Chavez et al. a lot, but we do not do it with the same intensity as the Eastern Caracas ghetto, nor for the same reasons. The malls and movie theaters that have flourished in Eastern Caracas these past ten years, as chavista nouveau riche are trying to move in, have not reached San Felipe. After ten years we are still limited to a single Central Madereinse for our quality grocery shopping, while crime is now as bad as in Caracas.

My concern here is more direct than that: are Caracas politicians really aware of what is going on in the provinces? I mean, our local politicians certainly have a good sense of what is going on these days but the main political leaders still evolve in Caracas circles, and this surely gives them somewhat that ghetto mentality that some times we seem to see in them. Surprisingly it might be starting to affect some chavista politicians and Chavez himself, in his very own ghetto of Miraflores as he cannot attend any public event unless organized by and for chavistas. In a "participative democracy" rarely so few people have really participated, as we are observing today those that are where it really matters.

1) El Nacional is on and off by subscription only. Although the article was accessible today, just in case I have placed the original in Spanish here.

-The end-

More CNE cheating in Venezuela

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 00:45:01 -0500

ESDATA is an organization that has been studying diligently electoral statistics in Venezuela. As a blogger, one on occasion gets in his mail box some data before other folks, soemtimes even in modifiable format. I just got how the polling stations were manned last year.

The latest thing is the control by PSUV militants of the polling stations. That is, the more a polling station is controlled by PSUV militants, the more likely pro Chavez cheating can take place. NOTE: I am not implying that cheating will take place just because a polling station is PSUV controlled, just that the odds increase.

This would not be so bad if there were as many polling stations controlled by PSUV militants than there are PSUV militants in Venezuela, or if the opposition were allowed to control its share of polling stations. But the graph below shows us that the CNE is purposefully trying to put as many hard core chavistas as possible in charge of elections. It is important to remember two things before I get into the details of this graph:1) in Venezuela supposedly polling station members are randomly selected and 2) since 2004, those who signed for the recall election on Chavez are systematically barred from monitoring polling stations while it is now established publicly that supporting Chavez increases your chances to monitor election stations! (1)

Click to enlarge

In blue you can see how many electors are registered in the PSUV. This already is an anomaly: apparently the CNE published by mistake the names and ID of the folks who signed up in the PSUV last year. ESDATA lifted that date before it could be erased, a reverse Tascon list of sorts! As you can see by yourself, the total goes from 20 to 40% of the electors of a state. Interesting to see the official acknowledgment that the PSUV is not the mass party that chavismo wanted it to be

However the problem comes when you look at the electors selected to manage the voting stations: IN ALL STATES that number is larger than the ones you would expect (in yellow). And when you look at the the president of voting stations, the person that has authority, in red, the percentages now go from 30 to 70%!!!!!!!!!

I am sure that you can reach the same conclusion that I reached as to the partiality and bias of the CNE. Will the OAS, Carter Center and European Union observers have anything to say about that?

But as usual I am not satisfied the way data is given to me and I sorted it from the original graphic, that is, I ranked it from the state with the least PSUV members to the states with the most. We can thus see two things clearly, things that confirm what this blog has been saying all along.

1) The most populated and developed the state the less likely it is to have militant chavistas. In the left half you have Miranda, Caracas, Carabobo, Aragua, Lara and Zulia, the 6 most populous area of Venezuela, with the largest cities. And all with less than 30% PSUV militants. On the far right you have the most rural areas such as Apure or Cojedes, which favor Chavez much more.

2) I have also scored the different states according to their recent electoral history (red dots more pro Chavez, blue dots least pro Chavez). Thus curiously you can find alleged pro Chavez states Aragua, Bolivar and Lara on the left half of the chart, the one with the lower percentage of PSUV registered voters. Clearly, in those states the opposition has its best chance to dig for votes even if these states have been voting Chavez for a while. We could call these states the NiNi states. On the other hand Tachira looks more chavista than what we would have thought. Cryptic chavismo or deep polarization? After all Tachira voted the most against Chavez last year.

Conclusion? Well, the only way to protect your vote is to be present at closing time and watch how votes are counted and the voting process audited. If people lift their butts, organize themselves in monitoring squads, it really does not matter if the president of a station is PSUV or not, votes will be counted as they should be counted. The opposition would do well to explain such a graph to voters to convince them to work on election day besides going to vote.

--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

1) It is also true that you are paid for spending a week end at the polling station. Chavismo also uses that to make additional payments to its followers.

-The end-

Readers' survey

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 00:26:01 -0500

Quico had a good idea, to survey his blog readers. Then again he found a real self making survey site, so it is worth trying to do a survey.

However I am not interested in as many details as Quico asked. As I am not a journalist nor do have the intention to ever transform my site in some form of pay per view magazine or something of the sort, the survey that I will propose will be simpler than the one Quico offered. No questions about other sites or trends or whatever, only who are you, what do you like about this blog and what would you like to see. This is after all only a blog that had the good fortune to find a steady readership.

Even though SurveyMonkey asks only for 20 bucks, with only 400 dollars allowed by CADIVI on my Internet purchases, you will forgive me if I prefer to use that money for magazine subscription or professional needs... Thus this represents some restraints as how useful that survey will be. And no, I am not hinting at any one giving me the money, with 100 replies we will get a good idea already. After all some political pollsters in Venezuela do not seem to use much more than a 100 people........

1) I will publish some statistics at the end, but they will be limited as I can only get 100 responses per survey. Reply early.

2) It is also the reason why I post the survey on Saturday, the slowest day of the week and in my experience the day where readers are the most likely to be the regular ones.

3) Unfortunately I had to split the survey in two as a maximum of only ten questions are allowed per survey. But that might be good as readers can reply to only one survey or both of them, according to their interest.

The first survey is about who you are and why do you read VN&V. Click Here to take this survey

The second survey is about what you like in VN&V and what else would you like to see in it. Click Here to take that survey

Make sure you click the DONE button at the end of each survey if you want your vote to be counted.

Enjoy and take this opportunity to have your say.

Note: I have set controls at one survey reply per computer. In case you have more than one reader per household, well, too bad, you will need to find another computer. Sorry!

-The end-

Time to go Leopoldo

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 12:17:08 -0500

Dear Leopoldo Lopez

I think one should know when to call it quits even when all is unfair, as it is in your case. We all agree that Ruffian and Chavez have set you a rotten trap, that in the annals of Venezuelan electoral treachery the "inhabilitaciones" will occupy a ranking position. But let's face it, at this point it is clear that the government will not back down and if it backs down it will be in a way that will not allow you to register for the November election. That is, considering the unavoidable judicial delays, even if next week by some miracle the TSJ decided for you, you might still not be able to clear up your name in time to register for the November election. At this point your only chance is for Ruffian to say "oops! I made a mistake with you! Sorry!". You and I know that this will happen only if Chavez himself calls Ruffian.

You are a smart politician Leo, you know that Chavez is not going to abandon Isturiz. He is revolutionary, he is black, he has accepted to become servile to Chavez. Furthermore Chavez cannot afford to have the opposition control the political marches permits of Caracas, cannot afford the opposition to control the biggest Caracas bureaucracy outside of the central state, cannot afford to have the opposition main spokesperson sitting on Plaza Bolivar. True, you had an excellent chance at becoming chavismo worst nightmare but you will not. At least not from the Alcaldia Mayor.

So what should you do? You should go out and declare your support to one of the other guys also running, make a pact with your choice and publicly engage yourself to run the campaign side by side with him/her just as if you were the one running for mayor. You should said that the best way for the people to express their disgust with the rottenness of the electoral maneuvers of chavismo is to vote for whomever you support. In the same breath you will say that all the free time you will have left after the election will be spent in running a series of referendum initiatives to correct such injustices. You need to make chavismo know that you will be an even more formidable adversary of chavismo once you get free of pothole fixing, and you must ask people to help you become just that, by voting for whomever you support.

This is what a true statesman, a man of great vision would do. Are you such a man Leopoldo?

-The end-

Didalco steps in the campaign: a PODEMOS effect?

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 12:58:45 -0500

The recent actions of PODEMOS have been really interesting. Readers might remember that PODEMOS was a staunch ally of Chavez, excusing many of his excesses under the "understood" argument that the revolution had to break a few eggs until true democracy could be reached. And then came the constitutional reform of 2007 and the alliance unraveled. But the departure of PODEMOS was not exactly like the departure of former allies of Chavez.

First it is important to note that even though the PODEMOS electorate is at best a 10% of the country, it is a real electorate, that includes party cadres formed long ago through their militancy at the MAS. In fact, the PODEMOS break up from the MAS probably carried most of the hard core militancy that thought the MAS had become a mere "bourgeois" party. The MAS keeps shrivelling while PODEMOS might be small but is active.

Second, for all of its raw language, PODEMOS was formed through the democratic struggles of the MAS, a party who never had a "caudillo"-like leader such as AD or Chavez had/are. There has been a tradition of internal debate and an attachment to very basic democratic concepts. The reelection plan of Chavez was probably the single most important element for PODEMOS to start drifting away form Chavez: they could forgive a lot but when a constitutional reform is designed so obviously to perpetuate one man in power, that was just too much for PODEMOS.

As it is usual with Chavez excesses, he could not stand the early small dissenting of PODEMOS and through his verbal abuses sped up the break up. In particular there was a violent outburst against Didalco Bolivar, long term serving Aragua governor, a governor that was reelected with the highest percentage of all governors in 2004. Didalco Bolivar is a rather quiet and reserved poltician but he is a serious one and he knew that the opportunity to strike back at Chavez would come. It has.

It is to be noted that through the referendum campaign of late 2007 I was surprised at the silence of Didalco. The point men of PODEMOS then where Isamel Garcia and Sucre governor, Ramon Martinez who even started appearing in Globovision again now that the doors of VTV were closed to them. But Didalco was aloof in spite of the harsh words of Chavez. It is rumored that he is sick and most folks attributed this to his silence then. But apparently he is doing better...

This week a new ad campaign started. It does not mention any political party, does not give any voting indication, but has an exceedingly clear message. Each ad is a small personal story about folks that have decided that voting in November is essential because the government has decided to force feed us the constitutional changes that we rejected last December. The ad ends with a red background which has a picture of Didalco asking us to vote. To vote, not to vote FOR someone.

Of course the subliminal message is quite clear: vote for whomever does not support the constitutional changes of 2007, allowing even moderate chavistas to benefit from such a campaign, if hey dared to. The ad also manages to work on the popular roots of PODEMOS at the same time as it works on the lower middle class, MAS traditional stronghold. It allows PODEMOS not to deny its leftist bent while claiming to be a true democratic party. That this is true or not is irrelevant, but it certainly has the potential to appeal to the large NiNi crowd that tends to stay home. It is an institutional message that gives the voters a reason to vote, NO MATTER who is running for the opposition. Exactly what is needed to do and what has not happened yet from an opposition too worried about fighting out the candidate for Tacusiapon and haggling over who can fix the most potholes while the country is sinking.

If you add this to the ease in wich PODEMOS allowed for a non PODEMOS candidate to become the next Sucre governor you can start wondering about what is PODEMOS after. Maybe they want to retain the top prize of Aragua? Or maybe they understand better than anyone else what sleeps in the bowels of chavismo and know that national unity against that evil is a must? Maybe they are betting on a chavismo defeat that will allow them to recover most of the more "moderate" section of chavismo? This last one would explain that they worry more about townhalls than governorships since it is there that future political parties are forged. Whatever it is PODEMOS is starting to flex its muscle with potential very interesting effects.

-The end-

The Venezuelan 2008 election: update 2

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 09:17:37 -0500

Although the sorting out of candidatures for the opposition is far from complete, there is enough new to justify a second update. I must admit that inasmuch as the constant delays is worrying, we must still take comfort that progress is made. Now it remains to be seen if the campaigns will be conducted in such a way as to mobilize the opposition base, real and potential, to compensate the nasty haggling that all know took place behind closed doors.

Chavismo pains

Not much to say there. The fake primaries held are still creating waves of discontent among minor allies who might not account for much but who could provoke by their defection or dissidence the loss of more states and town halls than predicted. Now it seems that even the "morochas" strategy to win a large majority of legislative seats with a minority of votes is in jeopardy as all threaten to go their own way.

And to help things along, discarded Acosta Carles, the sitting burping Carabobo Governor has decided to run anyway, all but ensuring that chavismo loses there....

The opposition gives birth to 7 unique candidates (well, maybe)

After months and months of "polls" and "haggling" (newly fashionable word, in economy and politics) the opposition announced its first 7 unique governor candidates (no word on town hall unity candidates yet!). Meager result but a result nevertheless. Let see the state by state situation.

Zulia. It looked to me to be a sure thing but it is not so anymore. I suspect that the reason has been the desire of Rosales, as a good caudillo himself, to transform Zulia into his very own consolidated bastion to allow for a new presidential round in 4 years (he needs the state treasure to run a campaign!). Thus we had Bijani throw his hat into the ring anyway, once Rosales edged him out. To make things more difficult the unity candidate, Pablo Perez, does not seem to carry much personality of his own and form afar the Chavez one, Di Martino, does not look too bad in comparison. I must downgrade Zulia from sure thing to only tending opposition.

Vargas. Roberto Smith comes back from the political grave. Considering the lousy pro Chavez running against him, Vargas becomes a possible pick for the opposition.

Carabobo. Ex governor, Henrique Salas Feo, and a decent one at that, is the consensus candidate. Mario Silva not only is a divisive and repugnant figure, but the start of Acosta Carles bid all but ensures that Salas Feo will repeat.

Nueva Esparta. No surprise there, AD sitting governor gets the nod is is almost certain to repeat although there are rumors that Russian will "inhabilitar" him....

Sucre. An interesting development there. Very chavista state through PODEMOS, Sucre would be up for grabs depending on what PODEMOS could do and how it could convince its share of voters to move away from Chavez. In a surprising move PODEMOS supports an ex-AD governor, running now as an independent. Might be a smart move because it allows for the opposition to rally behind him, and does not pose much of a name recognition problem. I am not ready to do it but Sucre could join soon my list of states tending for the opposition. But the problem is how many chavista votes will sitting governor Martinez be able to take away from Chavez since he cannot be on the ballot.

Trujillo and Apure. I do not know enough to have an opinion there. But the historical trend makes it difficult to win for the opposition. Perhaps why this one had no problem there filing a sure loser....

-The end-

Chavez minister anti inflation plan: Haggle!

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 00:36:41 -0500

Another one to be filed under the "truth is stranger than fiction" files.

Agriculture minister Elias Jaua, has offered his solution to fight an inflation which is reaching any time soon the 40% annual rate, second only to Zimbabwe and such type of well run economies. He just told folks to haggle when they go shopping, that it was the best way to stop speculators, hoarders, bandits and other scourges of socialistic economies such as the one his boss is promoting. We had alredy bartering offered by our beloved leader el supremo, now the second leg of XXI socialism shopping is complete: haggle! When you go to a supermarket and milk is too expensive (if you can find it) just haggle at the cashier. Beer too expensive for you? Haggle! It is so simple that we all wonder why we never thought of it before.

The only question here is since we already haggled some at open air farmer markets and other such shopping arenas (buhoneros), what are we going to do there now? If we are required to haggle at grocery stores does that mean at farmers market we'll need now to start fighting it off with the seller?

Obviously serious sectors of the economy are not amused by such a silly minister. In fact some ask whether the goods that are submitted to price control should also be haggled over...

The immense stupidity of chavista ministers will never cease to surprise us. I wish it were a simple provocation but I suspect that no, it is not a provocation. What we are seeing is a government that refuses to face the music, that refuses to admit that most of the economical problems it is facing are of its own making. What we are seeing is a government that has run out of ideas and is simply losing its grip on reality.

-The end-

Unfortunately for the opposition I am proved right

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 10:43:45 -0500

El Universal publishes today a devastating article as to all what is wrong in the opposition campaign. A lot of what I said before is unfortunately happening. Certainly it is not all lost, but the way things are going.....

More tonight.

-The end-

File under "truth is stranger than fiction" : Miss Venezuela gets the Miss Universe crown

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 01:21:46 -0500

This is about the little bit of trivia that is totally useless but that somehow will manage to stay with us for a long time.

Dayana Mendoza won for Venezuela its fifth Miss Universe crown. The fifth one for Osmel Sousa by the way, the guy that single handedly did more for plastic surgery world wide than any other person I can think of.

I suppose that for some people this bit of trivia is important, in particular for chavismo who know feels that the score is Uribe 1 : Chavez 1. Because get that, Miss Colombia was the runner up!!!!! Personally I could not care less about the result, having become quite PC about meat market activities and since a former Miss Venezuela, Irene Saez, allowed indirectly for the rise of Hugo Chavez in the late 90ies....

As if already the results in the Vietnam event was not weird enough, in these times of Colombia/Venezuela troubles, get that: Dayana Mendoza has been, in Venezuela, the victim of a kidnapping action!!!! The longer AP note, including pictures of the happy winner for those interested, also tells us that to crown it all Miss USA fell on her face on the catwalk. I mean, what better Sunday for Chavez can we possibly come up with!? I cannot wait for conspiracy theorists to say that Chavez paid for the whole thing. They are wrong, such happy coincidences money cannot buy...

I bet you we get a cadena with mention somewhere of the happy news as yet another success of the bolivarian farce..... Only in Venezuela revolutionary women have to be of course better looking than capitalistic countries.... You might be laughing at that last one but you just wait!

And let's not forget that Ingrid is the daughter of a former Colombian beauty queen. Will the news of the Colombia defeat affect her incessant TV appearances?

-The end-

Official electoral cheating in Venezuela and the people who do it

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sun, 13 Jul 2008 00:44:00 -0500

Today Venezuelans hit the streets to march and protest yet once again. It was surprisingly big enough that it got several international articles out already: from Spain El Pais, close to the Socialists over there, El Universal of Mexico more to the right, and even Reuters who speaks of several tens of thousands when usually it gives much lower numbers to Venezuelan opposition marches. This is even better as the issue is not of those who drive easily the largest chunk of hoi poloi to the streets, not to mention that the march pathway was about 5 miles under tropical noon sun, on a not too easy course.

The issue that rather surprisingly propelled so many people to the streets was the famous "inhabilitaciones" of Clodosvaldo Russian that I have already discussed at length such as here. Check for key words such as '2008 election' or 'Russian' for additional entries. In short, the comptroller has taken for himself attributes that are clearly under current constitution strictly reserved for a court of justice after a final, without appeal sentence.

What the ruffian Russian is doing is to forbid a select number to run in next elections on charges of having done illegal disbursements that most time where forced upon them by central government decisions and which in any case never profited them. Which of course did not stop some vile and hysterical chavistas such as Carlos Escarra to call these people thieves even though their offenses cannot actually be put in a court of law!!!! Not even as a misdemeanor! Curiously some of these names included almost shoo-in candidates for critical positions that chavismo holds at heart dearly such as Caracas mayor at large or Tachira state where a complacent governor is essential to help along all the illicit exchanges done between Venezuela and Colombian irregulars, not to mention heavy contraband.

I am being a little repetitive here but it was important once again to remind the readers of this important civil rights issue because that is the only way they will get an appreciation for the what comes next (warning: following comments will sound quite bitchy; stop reading right now if you live in an exceedingly political correct world).

The picture next was published by El Nacional today as it narrated when Clodosvaldo Russian brought to the Electoral board of Venezuela, CNE, the final list of people barred from running for election (again, NONE OF THEM having stood a trial where a sentence was emitted allowing for curtailing their political rights). The two women on the picture are 2 of the CNE directors, Sandra Oblitas on the middle and Janeth Hernandez on the left, receiving the list.

What is wrong with this picture?

The first thing that should strike the reader is that three of the most important people of the country, one who ensures the fight against corruption and two who are the guarantors of free and fair elections, are all laughter as they know perfectly well that they are screwing 250 citizens and setting a precedent to allow them to screw any political opponent that the regime might deem necessary to neutralize, as it is done in Russia, in Zimbabwe, in Iran. Talk about "a picture worth a thousand words"!

But that picture goes further because it reveals to us what type of people do we have in charge. I wish I had the acidic hilarious pen of "Go Fug Yourself", the famous fashion dress down of the celebrities to describe the fashion abomination we see in the picture above. I know, I know, attire and excess weight are not a reason to disqualify someone from office but the above picture does make a case for this.

I will start with the simplest one to deal with, Clodo. This suit is not well made, looks even cheap. However I have seen him with very fancy suits and nice ties. Let's say that for such an occasion he might have wanted to look cheap, least anyone thinks he is corrupt, screwing 250 Venezuelans for money. The next one, Sandra Oblitas, who was an umpire reported to cry when her side lost December 2, has always a frumpy to overage student look. This time she is particularly bad as she looks like wearing her wrinkled pajamas shirt. Running late for work that day?

But the "fug disaster" is Janeth Hernandez. Imitation faux-fur on a Caracas business day? Tight pants on an obese person for business? And what is the story with her hair? For chrissake, any one of them makes enough money to afford a personal shopper, a personal trainer, custom made clothing and twice a week hair dresser visits. And I am not thinking even about the personal "commissions" they might be getting on occasion if they want too.

But in the case of Janeth Hernandez we have a damning official picture in the web page of the CNE that obligingly I reproduce here in full, when she got the job barely two years ago. Then she looked mean and revolutionary though the picture is obviously one she gave the CNE press office and she might have chosen one from years ago.

But if you look at two more "recent pictures" you would have a hard time recognizing her!

This is her, dispatching from her desk, with religious statues on the back, and a Direct TV remote on her left hand. Obviously she does not want to be distracted from world news when Chavez is in cadena! Though already a few extra pounds from her official CNE picture, she still is not as dreadful as in today picture: at least her hair still seems taken care by some professional even if of dubious taste.

But we could guess that disaster was rushing to met her with this next color picture which reveals her taste for heavy and vulgar make up.

Shinny lips? Stretch top of hideous color barely good enough for little girls or gym wear, that matches her eye make up? Would you trust that person with your vote?

I know better than judge someone for her weight (I could lose 20 pounds myself). I know better than to judge someone only on the clothes they wear (as a scientist I lived in Birkenstock for years, wearing socks in winter that matched my sweaters colors, always). I know better than judge someone for permanent bad hair days. But there comes a point where it all adds up and you have the right to wonder about the social and cultural and intellectual background of the person that sits across the desk.

Janeth Hernandez is the Venezuelan equivalent of "trailer trash" and these people, no matter how nice they might be and what a mighty biscuit they can cook, are not fit to hold a position like the one Janeth Hernandez is holding. These people, in the very best of cases, can be efficient advocates for their cause and friends, never the political umpires of a nation. These pictures simply confirm (would have predicted?) what Janeth Hernandez has turned out to be since she was named to the CNE two years ago.

Thus we see documented, yet again, one of the reasons why chavismo is unable to run the country: it names people that should never have been named to the position they occupy. People by the way who seem unable to learn a minimum of public behavior and example setting once in office.

-The end-

Uribe goes to Venezuela to blackmail Chavez

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 00:00:52 -0500

Many a press article is wondering about the sudden visit of Uribe to Venezuela, even if that one is to last barely 7 hours and will not take place in Caracas, far from excess prying eyes. Paraguana is a good place also to hide the real agenda behind a "technical" fake one. What all of these journalists are failing to understand is that this visit is not between two normal countries after a near war situation. If it were the case, after all the streams of insults that Chavez uttered this year there is no way that Uribe would visit. At best we would have a preliminary encounter at foreign ministry level to prepare a visit perhaps late, very late this year.

No, what we have here is a thug receiving his neighbor and his neighbor knowing that quite well about the thug and acting accordingly, blackmailing the thug, the only language these people understand. Uribe knows very well that war was never an option for Chavez, and if anything the latest brilliant hostage rescue set that point on granite.

What we are seeing here is one man moved by the interests of state and another one moved by trying to save his sorry ass. And if you still do not get it, some details next.

Uribe and Colombia State Interests

For every dollar Colombia buys to Venezuela, Venezuela must be buying these days around 5 dollars from Colombia. No matter how disliked Venezuela is these days in Colombia, over there they all know that it is impossible to move away, or to hope the other guy disappears by some magic. On the other hand the proximity of the Venezuelan market is a deity's send for business and they are more than willing to put up with whatever clown that sits at Miraflores.

Thus Colombia which is having a coherent development policy, at least compared to Venezuela, is using Venezuela to export its first industrial productions while it keeps building up its own technology and resources. Venezuela, who these days produces less and less, is only too happy to buy in order to keep social peace least people realize that we are about to starve any day disaster strikes us. Let me put it in other words, all proportions guarded: Colombia in a way is using Venezuela the way South Korea used Asia 40 years ago or Japan did 70 years ago. That is, the places where they learned international business and tried out their goods before peddling them to more demanding customers, read the US a few years inside an FTA.

Uribe comes here to demand Chavez to reopen the borders in a more reliable way, to become less mercurial about trade with Colombia, or else. It is not that Colombia wants open borders: a case can be made that Uribe has been trying lately to export less to Venezuela, not to depend so much from border trade. No, what Colombia and Uribe want is more predictability: if Venezuela wants to buy less, fine, but tell us how much less and for how long and stick to it.

To achieve this Uribe has the Reyes computers, the expressed support of Chavez to the FARC last December, a brilliant rescue and a now respected army, hemisphere wise, which is making many people nervous. Or why else do you think that Richard Lugar asked Brazil to mediate between the FARC and Uribe ASAP? It is not in the US interests for other people to realize what a good job they did in Colombia, nor for Uribe to start thinking he can do without the US. But I might be digressing some here...

Chavez and his very own interests

Once again I must remind readers that we are not discussing Venezuelan foreign policy or Venezuela's state interests: since 2004 the only interests that have directed Chavez foreign policy have been his own. Period. In fact it would be fair to set the date where Chavez foreign interests became dominant when the oil barrel hit the 30 USD mark.

Right now Chavez has a big problem: his whole strategy in Latin America is falling apart, and of his own doing. No one forced him to support the FARC at his State of the Union speech. No one forced him to pay off local Bolivian officers to support Evo Morales. No one forced him to buy billions of bad Ecuador and Argentina debt that are now questioned even by his ex finance ministers!

Another reason for his crashing project is that Chavez huge ego/hubris has removed any competent person around him on the foreign policy front; which is incidentally another reason why Uribe is coming himself: he knows full well that with Venezuela's joke of a Foreign Minister Maduro he will go nowhere. Uribe probably feels like if he needs to speak with a thug, well, let it be the Thugo Major.

So now, Chavez justly feeling cornered, losing sleep on account of the drop wise release of the infamous lap tops info, has decided to play nice. He wrote to the US to renew with the DEA which was kicked out unceremoniously not that long ago. He suggests to met with Uribe in Venezuela and pretends he is delighted when Uribe accepts. Now he is about to ask Uribe his price to silence the computers.

Indeed, 7 hours are plenty enough for the real agenda of the reunion....

-The end-

South Colombia, the musical

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 09:31:12 -0500

This newest really off-off-Broadway musical takes us into the strange lives of people lost into the small islands of the South Colombian jungle. A terrible war opposes the Farcoca Archipelago with the islanders of the Paisa group. The show opens when the super rich palm oil planter, Emile Le Chavec fumbles around the area trying to fish for pavon in troubled waters.

Act 1

In the opening scene Nurse Alvarie ForBush receives Emile in a Paisa plantation on Bogota Island. There, in her first tune “I am a cockeyed Optimist” she tells Emile that the war against Farcoca is going OK, but that she would like him to help in some secret mission to try to release a few hundred prisoners that are held for ransom. They really seem to like each other as they discuss Captain Santander and the wreck of the Bolivarian ship on the Grand Colombia atoll long ago.

Returning on board his fishing boat, the “XXI-ner”, a speedy social cruiser, Emile gives us the first show stopper when he refers to that “Enchanted Evening” where across the crowded room he saw the possibilities offered by Alvarie to improve his glory. But unfortunately he does mistake Alvarie request for help as her hitting on him, seeing her as yet another one of his future conquests.

Ashore a few people are getting bored with the war going on and are missing their friends prisoner on other islands. A European madam that drifted to these shores looking for ways to improve her polls at home, “Bloody Nicole”, has decided to make one of these prisoners as her putative daughter and she stirs anyone into action to rescue her, no matter how silly it might look. She sings of “Cali High”, an island clouded in burning drugs smoke as an idyllic place where breathing is enough to make you 'feel good' and where love can be found by whomever rescues Ingriat, the most beloved icon du jour. She eventually convinces some of the men on the beach to go to Cali High, among them Seabee De Villipillis and Lieutenant Luther Kouchner. They use some Swiss cheese as a token bargain with the natives of Cali High.

Back at the plantation Alvarie has seen through the games of Le Chavec, realizing he might actually be working for the Farcocas. In addition she discovers that Emile has ethnic set prejudices and only likes people who agree with him and who do not look too white. Pissed off she decides to “Wash That Man Out Of Her Hair”.

Act 2

Weeks have passed and the rift between Alvarie and Emile got much worse. In fact, things come to a break point when Lieutenant Joe Belt is found hiding a Farcocan, Lewis Kings and a few iPods loaded with rap and hip hop, Broadways no-no.

Meanwhile Bloody Nicole and Emile have been having all sorts of “Happy Talk” pretending to free some of the Cali High ‘retained’. These words do not satisfy Seabee De Villipillis who, along a whole bunch of people who never heard of South Colombia and cared even less for until Ingriat was made prisoner, keeps desperately trying to find Ingriat .

Trying to smooth things up, Emile hosts a thanksgiving show on the beach which turns as a drunken party of sorts where among helicopters flying around, movie directors and a confusion between ‘retained’, security and bandits we can hear a security high ranking officer calling “Honey Bun” one of the terrorist. But the party of Emile turns to a bust quickly when suddenly Alvarie appears with Ingriat at her hands. People are shocked at her looking “Younger Than Spring Time” in spite of her days captive at Cali High. Everybody goes away glued to Ingriat words asking her “Dîtes Moi, Dîtes Moi”. Le Chavec left far behind is heard wondering mournfully aloud “This Nearly Was Mine”.

Ingriat thinks that everybody “Got to be Carefully Taught” but her confusing reprise of “Dîtes-Moi” one thing early in her act and “Dîtes-Moi” another later into it when Bloody Nicole welcomes her back, worries most folks. Emile and Alvarie start suspecting that Ingriat cannot be relied upon and they decide to meet again next week to see if they can work out a deal and rekindle their old flame. Anything is better than having Ingriat or the frenchy Bloody Nicole tell them how to behave.

--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

With my deep apologies to Rodgers and Hammerstein for plagiarizing so badly what is in my opinion the best Broadway musical ever. Then again, if I did not love South Pacific so much I would not have even been able to try my heavy hand at it.

-The end-

Press getting tougher on Chavez?

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 08:42:37 -0500

A predicted effect on last week success with of Colombia against the FARC is that there will be less indulgence toward Chavez, now that it is clear that his mediator role was weak at best. Not even mentioning his "past" support for the terrorist group. The surprise is that already today we can read such things form the Wall Street Journal (expected) but also from more circumspect NYT.

Maria Anastasia gloats

The tile of her article, "FARC's 'Human Rights' Friends" sets the tone right there. Maria Anastasia O'Grady went all out in attacking many of the NGO set up for humanitarian reasons but of dubious intentions. The article comes with an embedded video that is amusing to watch. I am not sharing all of her view points on that but when I see the Swiss floundering on the Santos words yesterday, well, she might have more of a point than what I am willing to give her. Indeed, Colombia's defense minister words that the Swiss paid half a million in small bills to the FARC, found in Costa Rica courtesy of the Reyes computer, has finally awakened the Swiss if anything to refute them. But still, I could not find any Swiss major league demanding that RSR explains better its allegation of of the rescue having required 20 millions. In fact that RSR article seemed rather proud of the stir they caused by being the only ones mentioning that "payment", without nay need from their part to strengthen their claim a tad better. Which did not stop them form expecting more explanations from Santos. Ah! The Swiss arrogance! Must be that pure Alp water.

You never know who are really working for

This blogger has long said that Brazil in the long term would be the beneficiary of Chavez follies. Well, in a long article Simon Romero makes that case: "Quietly, Brazil Eclipses an Ally".

Basically as Venezuela under Chavez has been squandering its last opportunity to become an economic power house, Brazil has quietly multiplied by far its trade surplus with the half continent. In fact Simon Romero delicately details how Chavez has been taken for a ride by Lula who while declaring him the best president in 100 years has made sure that none of his initiatives succeeds, while at the same time making Venezuela increasingly dependent on Brazil. If Venezuela had a normal press corps, this article should be major discussion fodder on talk shows. When Chavez is gone, we will have left the US sphere of influence to fall into the Brazilian one. Maybe some can call that progress, but I will be left to wonder what woudl have happened if Venezuela had made better investment decisions and strengthened the Andean Community and its Caribean NON-Cuban links. As Romero sorts of implies, even the Colombia-Brazil relation might be more honest, sincere, true partner like, than the one with Venezuela.

"Cosas veredes, Sancho"

And in Miami, Chavez is a loser

To round up this a worthwhile analysis of Oppenheimer. Well, he has been criticizing Chavez for a long time starting with his now iconic "narcissist-leninist" adjective. For Andres, like for this blogger, the only card left to Chave is the US inability to rein its oil consumption which at 140USD a barrel allows for many costly msitakes by Chavez.

-The end-

Now it is the Swiss that are paying the FARC

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sun, 06 Jul 2008 13:33:40 -0500

Lovely! Santos, the Colombian defense minister, has decided to blow away the Swiss from any role in the Colombian mediation. After all, if they are unable to demand RSR to sustain better their grave but stupid accusations, who needs the Swiss?

So Santos revealed in an interview that the 500,000 USD seized in Costa Rica from a FARC "safe" house had been given by a Swiss diplomat, Jean Paul Gontard (French Swiss, interesting, no?; just like RSR). This according to the Reyes computer which also revealed where the money was hidden.

No reaction from the Swiss media at this typing except for a couple of mentions of the Santos declaration. However looking through I did find a Tribune de Genève article that of course highlights their own media "scoop" but also mentions the words of Gontard: But the Swiss intermediary [Gontard] has said himself to our paper (15 minutes after the news of Ingrid and the other 14 hostages' freedom broke out Wednesday) that the happy ending was the result of a strictly military operation. It is to be noted that the Tribune highlights the word military.

This is getting better by the hour. Did Santos knew of Gontard favorable words? Was Gontard bailing out ASAP the news broke? Is Gontard the RSR source?

As a bonus for this El Tiempo edition, a long report with more details on "Operacion Jaque". Sorry, in Spanish.

-The end-

Sunday Video: Jaime Bayly does Ingrid and Mario

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sun, 06 Jul 2008 12:44:22 -0500

Alek Boyd pointed in the comments this presentation of Jaime Bayly, noted Peruvian author and TV personality. The three videos in Noticias 24 are not to be missed if you understand Spanish: not only will you get many a laugh at Bayly illustrating the discomfiture of the pro Chavez anti Uribe camp, but you will see many of the chavista sycophants that Bayly punctures effortlessly. A great half an hour.

By the way: according to current media laws the program of Bayly could not make it to Venezuelan TV, perhaps not even after 11 PM, just to indicate to you how self censorship is taking us. In other words, Mario Silva is unattainable in Venezuela and when people refer to him they rarely if ever mention his name of his talk show name, preferring to allude to him. That Mario Silva of La Hojilla has no such scruples as he can calumniate whomever he wants knowing full well that he is out of reach. I wonder though if he will reply to Bayly. If he does so he will of course disqualify him as a bisexual. -The end-

Various updates on Ingrid Betancourt, Chavez and Uribe

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sun, 06 Jul 2008 00:12:32 -0500

Many things keep happening from last Wednesday exploit. In no particular order.

Ingrid's fake rescue

Neither the New York Times nor the Washington Post are buying the RSR note. It is good to note that neither Romero of the NYT, and even less Forero of the WaPo are supporters of Uribe.

By the way, Fausta has translated the words of the rescue video. You can find it here.

Mugabe's model for Chavez

The Washington Post has a very worrisome article about the future of Venezuela: how the Zimbabwe army forced Mugabe to run the way he run. Apparently it seems that the man who is really running Zimbabwe, using Mugabe as a proxy, is General Constantine Chiwenga. No wonder the repression was so brutal, so professional we could say. Not a small thing to notice as yesterday Chavez announced the army promotions where as expected loyalty to Chavez was the main requirement to become general. Expect generals to have grown fat and powerful to refuse soon to let Chavez have any democratic after thought, assuming he has any , of course.

On another note, the Weil cartoon of last Friday is worth publishing: let's see if Chavez now starts taking care of Venezuelan hostages inside Venezuela, not mentioning that crime keeps us up as hostages in our own homes.

The doctor to Chavez: Forget about Ingrid,
just here you have plenty of kidnapped folks that you can rescue.

The press in Europe

The francophone press is of course all devoted to Ingrid, including medical results of her first check up. Apparently she did not suffer from hepatitis, probably from some other parasitic diseases that has yet to be identified. From her declarations life in the jungle was hell. But of all bugs that made her life miserable, the worst predator is man, that is, the conditions that the FARC held their captives. She said that she would not treat a plant the way she was treated.

Le Monde also addresses the Swiss Radio rumor, acknowledging that indeed it is quite possible that some informants have received some money, in particular the wife of the captives guard, but still, Le Monde elegantly dismisses the RSR report.

"En l'état, l'hypothèse d'une "vaste mascarade" est donc à prendre avec précaution."
In its current state the hypothesis of a "huge masquerade" is to be considered with caution.

This one by the way claims new information confirming their original "scoop", yet they do not give any further detail. Interesting that they are the only media receiving such insider's info, no? And as far as I could see the RSR is not as interested in detailing the inhuman treatment of Ingrid at the hands of the FARC. Surely they are upset that the world would doubt the word of the Swiss. Imagine that...... from the people who are paid not to reveal anything about their customers....

I would agree with the comment of a Le Monde readers that such thing as the RSR scoop are best ignored. But this is a Swiss BBC wanna-be and such a media must be taken to task. Their recent "confirmations" are rather sinking them further. At this level of news you cannot play a casual game. We'll see if they are as good as their word.

-The end-

Did Chavez fake his ignorance of Ingrid Betancourt's release?

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 22:57:04 -0500

I am off a heated argument with my S.O.: Chavez knew very well that Ingrid had been released but he went as far as playing dumb, pretending that a construction worker informed him, as a way to show that the event was not that important and did not affect him.

I have of course some problems with this interpretation of my S.O. but I cannot help been perturbed by the idea as it is not that far fetched.

Chavez, indeed, did not know

I prefer that theory because the entourage of Chavez has demonstrated such a deficiency on these type of situations in the past. The efficient Cuban intelligence in Venezuela is there to monitor opposition activities, not whether Uribe is rescuing hostages. That would be the job of the Bogota Embassy, the Venezuelan army or the Foreign ministry. Since we know that they long ago stopped running a professional service, that they only worry about what makes look Chavez good, and that the rest of the time they are trying to get illicit cash rewards, the possibility that Chavez was ill served by his people is quite clear. As you can see from the video linked in this post, Chavez seems very natural in admitting that he did not know, that he was one of the last people on earth to learn abotu the Colombian rescue mission of the other day. Or was he?

Chavez knew Ingrid had been freed but played dumb

Here, the force of the argument is that Chavez has long stopped speaking to rational people like us and that all his words since the 2004 referendum are in fact destined to the hard core 20 to 40% of the population that need to be constantly whipped up into frenzy. I cannot rebate that since I have been saying it all along, but perhaps I have not truly comprehended it fully.

Thus, you may ask, why would Chavez pretend such an ignorance who for rational people makes him look so stupid? Because it allows to self mock himself and this way downplay for his followers the importance of the news, and henceforth the damage that the Colombian rescue does to his already weakened international position. Yes, I know, twisted but plausible.

The fact of the matter is that for ten years Chavez has been polishing his argumentative style which is now down to constant disqualification of any adverse opinion. The disqualification might be rude, even highly vulgar, or more sophisticated, but 90% of chavismo arguments run around character assassination of whomever is criticizing it. And with that low 90% I am very generous as some weeks it is 100%.

The country is now effectively broken in two parts that should not communicate with each other. Today, coming out of the National Assembly Cilia Flores implied for example that those who were not with Chavez were "apatridas", traitors to the fatherland. Once upon a time the independence day celebration, July 5, was an occasion for the country to come together when all political factions sat down at a formal session of parliament while a notable Venezuelan spoke on the transcendence of the day. Today it is a 100% chavista sycophantic crowd sitting down and they have Evo Morales come over to talk to us about Venezuela.

So it is quite possible that after 10 years chavismo has been caught in its own game and Chavez is able to pretend that he did not know shit when he knew all along. In a way I cannot figure out which of the two hypothesis is the worst one for us. However oen thing is common to both explanations: Chavez does not care about Venezuela at all.

-The end-

Ingrid Betancourt faked her rescue

noreply@blogger.com (Daniel) — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 01:45:11 -0500

That is pretty much what is left for some to say.

I was busy all day and only tonight I learned that what started this morning as a strange note from the Radio Suisse Romande, something not in the league of the BBC, to name one real but occasionally questioned news outlet, claimed boldly that the rescue of Ingrid Betancourt was a set up. This was following similarly questioning writings by other non entities such as a few chavistas here and there. But that the RSR went ahead and signed an article on that (no journalist signed, making the note look like an editorial of sorts) was of course picked up by European media and generated a little firestorm of its own. In fact the tackiness of the press corps on such items pushed them to even question Ingrid on her return to France today. This sadly tasteless moment gives a new coloring to press feeding-frenzy, when the press forgets about humanity in its desperate search for the scoop.

What is very worrisome about this RSR note is its sloppiness when they cite a "reliable source". Let's assume that the RSR has one of the best source on the FARC. How come we did not know about it before? And why the RSR does not write something like " that was the source that confirmed this on that date" to remind us that indeed they do have one of the best sources. I mean, even this blog will not be as sloppy on such a transcendent matter!

I am not going to visit the different articles that had been emitted today. Suffice to say that the French and Colombian governments have soundly denied that they have paid anything. Even more, Santos, the Colombia defense minister, has reminded folks that it is a policy of the Colombian government to pay for info that leads to capture of FARC leaders or to the rescue of hostages. Thus they would have no problem in admitting this if it was today's case. In fact in the past Santos says that they even paid on other opportunities more than the 20 millions announced by the Swiss without a receipt. Ironically he added that 20 million for what happened two days ago would have been a true bargain. Let me remind the reader of the debate on a recompense a few weeks ago when the hands of Ivan Rios where brought to Colombian authorities along his lap top by the body guard that killed his own boss....

What was sadder was that Ingrid felt obliged to say that the rescue did not seem faked at all, spoiling somewhat what should have been a perfect and gracious day for her. I suppose that since I am sure she harbors political ambitions she might want to get used at how hateful some of the press has become while she was held hostage.

But it really does not matter- Today the Colombian government released the video of the rescue, taken with a small amateur camera as they tried to avoid the big media show involved in the Chavez "rescues", Hollywood director included. To me it seems all very credible, and if it is really staged, then the Colombian are better than Chavez, and they do not need to hire Oliver Stone for their media shows. (1) With that, the only other argument of the RSR is voided as they complained that the video was not immediately released as it is "the usage". Yeah, right, the RSR follows rescue missions all around the world live to be the first ones to show the news. Eat your heart out BBC and CNN....

But let's follow this argument a little bit further. Will we read soon that the rescue was fake because there was not a full TV crew from TeleSur on the premises? That if we do not have an interior minister congratulating the FARC guerrilla for their humanitarian actions then there is something fishy in the rescue? How far are certain journalists willing to to go to satisfy their personal grievances? Where is the investigation of the RSR on how much Chavez paid for Clara Rojas and co.? Can this wonderful RSR source bring us some data on this?

The difference here for those who are not getting it yet is that when Chavez freed hostages twice, nobody begrudged him his media show or him paying the monies he paid for them. We complained about the tackiness of the operation and that the Venezuelan tax payer footed the bill without being consulted on that matter as it was clearly an event designed for and by Chavez to score points against Uribe. But we implicitly accepted that if some money exchanged hands for these people release, so be it.

So, what gives here? I see tow things.

First I see a reaction of people that cannot believe that such a coup can be done by Colombians. The same type of psychological reaction of some that still do not believe that the US put a man on the moon in 1969. Thus all sorts of parallel universe explanations must be found. Occam can shave himself with his razor. If to this you had the congenital hatred that some have toward Uribe, well, you can yourself draw all sorts of conclusions. We see this phenomenon all the time, from the right that hated Clinton from day one to the left that hated Bush from day one, before he even had time to screw up. Irrational dislike of Uribe is not novel enough a disorder to make it to the DSM-IV. (2)

But going the Occam way we can come up with a much simpler explanation for the RSR snippet: their informer was simply ill informed. To begin with the operation cost is probably close to 20 millions. Or does anyone think that the helicopters and their equipment came for free, or that the participants are not expecting a nice bonus for their success? Of course some informants had to be paid, had to be offered guarantees or how do you think that the Colombian Intelligence managed to infiltrate the FARC. Indeed Colombia paid 20 million, or even much more than that, just in logistics!

It is quite conceivable that someone within Uribe camp was upset to be left on the side lines of the glorious operation, or hates Uribe even though he works for him, or whatever, and in a fit of anger passed along an information, any undigested information that s/he though could throw doubts on Uribe's jackpot.

In other words it is not for Uribe, or Sarkozy, to account for themselves, it is for the RSR to give the necessary details to prove its point, or justify an investigation: informer's infos can only go so far, even in blogs.

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1) The BBC in English also as that video but they removed the sound. So right now there is no subtitled version available.

2) An ethnic comment. Switzerland is a very safe and rich and spoiled country now. The Swiss are in fact at home very conservative, owning immigration laws that are the inspiration of the current ones voted at Strasbourg. Yet, in my experience the Swiss are among the biggest providers of PSF per capita. In addition I would push by writing that that it was very Swiss to complain abotu the slow release of the video. Colombia, not used to dashing rescues, might have wanted to take its time to examine the video for security reasons before they released it to the press.

-The end-