VIActin - investment opportunities

Global interest rates in 2008

noreply@blogger.com (admin) — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 09:25:00 +0000

The following table of average rates is aimed at reflecting the movement of official policy rates during the economic cycle rather than actual borrowing costs. The following table of average rates is aimed at reflecting the movement of official policy rates during the economic cycle rather than actual borrowing costs. 2008 MONTH: END06..END07..01...02...03...04...05...06...07...08...09...10...11...12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ G7 AVG: 3.65 3.70 3.40 3.35 3.10 2.90 - - 2.95 - - - - - 11 AVG: 4.00 4.52 4.39 4.41 4.32 4.25 4.26 4.28 4.33 - 4.28 - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ FED 5.25 4.25 3.0* - 2.25 2.0 - - - - - - - - BOJ 1) 0.25 0.50 - - - - - - - - - - - - ECB 3.50 4.00 - - - - - - 4.25 - - - - - BOE 5.00 5.50 - 5.25 - 5.0 - - - - - - - - BOC 4.25 4.25 4.0 - 3.5 3.0 - - - - - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SNB 2) 2.00 2.75 - - - - - - - - - - - - RBA 6.25 6.75 - 7.0 7.25 - - - - - 7.0 - - - RBNZ 7.25 8.25 - - - - - - 8.0 - 7.5 - - - RIKSBK 3.00 4.00 - 4.25 - - - - 4.5 - 4.75 - - - NORWAY 3.50 5.25 - - - 5.5 - 5.75 - - - - - - DENMARK 3.75 4.25 - - - - 4.35 - 4.6 - - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ NO. OF RATE CHANGES: 2007: 34 3 3 3 4 1 1 4 - 2 - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MONTH: END06..END07..01...02...03...04...05...06...07...08...09...10...11...12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ EASTERN EUROPE: POLAND 4.00 5.00 5.25 5.5 5.75 - - 6.0 - - - - - - HUNG 8.00 7.50 - - 8.0 8.25 8.5 - - - - - - - CZECH 2.50 3.50 - 3.75 - - - - - 3.5 - - - - SLOVAK 4.75 4.25 - - - - - - - - - - - - RUSSIA 11.0 10.0 - 10.25 - 10.5 - 10.75 11.0 - - - - - UKRAINE 8.5 8.0 10.0 - - 12.0 - - - - - - - - ROMANIA 8.75 7.5 8.0 9.0 9.5 - 9.75 10.0 10.25 - - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ LATIN AMERICA: BRAZIL 18.00 11.25 - - - 11.75 - 12.25 13.0 - - - - - MEX 3) 7.0 7.5 - - - - - 7.75 8.0 8.25 - - - - CHILE 5.25 6.0 6.25 - - - - 6.75 7.25 7.75 8.25 - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ASIA KOREA 4.50 5.00 - - - - - - - 5.25 - - - - THAI 4) 5.00 3.25 - - - - - - 3.5 3.75 - - - - PHIL 7.50 5.25 5.0 - - - - 5.25 5.75 6.0 - - - - TAIWAN 2.75 3.375 - - 3.5 - - 3.625 - - - - - - INDS 9.75 8.00 - - - - 8.25 8.5 8.75 9.0 9.25 - - - INDIA 7.25 7.75 - - - - - 8.5+ 9.0 - - - - - CHINA 6.12 7.47 - - - - - - - - - - - - (For more Asian rates please double click on [ID:nASIAINT]) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA: SARB 9.0 11.0 - - - 11.5 - 12.0 - - - - - - ISRAEL 4.5 4.25 - 3.75 3.25 - 3.5 3.75 4.0 4.25 - - - - TURKEY 17.5 15.75 15.5 15.25 - - 15.75 16.25 16.75 - - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MONTH:DEC06..DEC07..01...02...03...04...05...06...07...08...09...10...11...12 * Federal Reserve cut rates twice in January 2008 by 75 and 50 basis points respectively + Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate twice in June 2008, to 8.0 percent on June 11 and 8.5 percent on June 24. * Federal Reserve cut rates twice in January 2008 by 75 and 50 basis points respectively + Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate twice in June 2008, to 8.0 percent on June 11 and 8.5 percent on June 24.

Hand-held Portable Universal Cell Phones Jammer (2nd Gen)

noreply@blogger.com (admin) — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 07:46:00 +0000

You can create a dome area of about radius 8 to 10 meters to shield, and avoid to disturb by cell phone calls.

# Features: Hand-held Portable Universal Cell Phones Jammer
# Suggest to use: Conference room, Class room, Library, Court room, Cinema, Concert hall, etc.
# Operate continuously for 1.5 hours with full charged battery
# Operate Range: Radius 8-10 meters
# Dual miniature antenna
# Hand-held size: 5.8 x 11.8 x 2.2 cm

Blocked Frequency Systems:
# GSM850 Band: 869-894 MHz
# EGSM900: 925-960 MHz
# DCS1800: 1805-1880 MHz
# PCS1900: 1930-1990 MHz
# CDMA800: 869-894 MHz
# WCDMA/CDMA2000: 2110-2170 MHz
# PHS: 1895-1919 MHz
# DECT: 1880-1900 MHz

Package Included:
# 1 piece Hand-held Portable Universal Cell Phones Jammer
# 1 piece Universal Adaptor
# 1 piece Rechargeable Li-ion Battery

Country Performance (Aug 20, 2008)

noreply@blogger.com (admin) — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 10:18:00 +0000

MSCI Index	MTD	3Mo.	YTD	1 Yr	3 Yr	10 Yr
BRAZIL	-10,240%	-26,060%	-10,810%	38,170%	41,720%	17,890%
RUSSIA	-12,230%	-31,780%	-28,380%	-5,030%	19,990%	28,380%
INDIA	-0,040%	-14,540%	-37,940%	-5,280%	22,800%	18,040%
CHINA	-10,650%	-20,130%	-33,580%	-8,760%	25,860%	8,930%

source: MSCI Barra Excel

CNN vote

noreply@blogger.com (admin) — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 06:18:00 +0000

JUSHENKO GOES CRAZY

noreply@blogger.com (admin) — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 09:34:00 +0000

As the Internet news agency korrespondent.ua informs, referring to confidential sources, tonight the President of Ukraine Victor Jushchenko is placed in psycho-neurologic clinic for restoration of psychological balance. The press-service of the president of Ukraine does not confirm, but also does not deny this fact. According to the edition, Jushenko has run into heavy depression after news about full clearing Republic South Ossetia of the Georgian armies and the message that the information on NATO landing in Poti has not proved to be true.

Georgian units

noreply@blogger.com (admin) — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 09:10:00 +0000

While they may dress in uniforms similar to the US, and some of them have US weapons, they aren't even close to US troops. Of the Georgian units I've seen, only the Commandos had any disciple. The regular units had SERIOUS disciple problems. They stole any and everything they could get a hold of, including the radio and antenna mount off of the HMMWV the NCOIC of their MiTT was driving. When confronted, their commander claimed innocence until the NCOIC told them they would get nothing else from the US military until his equipment was returned. So it "magically" appeared that night.

In Kuwait, they were routinely caught steeling from other units, they broke into shipping containers to steel MREs, and uniforms, many of them got caught steeling form the PX, they set several structures on fire because they were smoking in no smoking areas, etc., etc. Until they can get their sh*t together, there's no way in hell they should be allowed into NATO.

"So you have had experience with Georgian units? interesting, thanks.
Contradicts the claims some people make about Georgian army being ready to take back Ossetia and Abkhazia because of some US aid."

As I said, the Commando battalion was very disciplined and well led, but they were still equipped with older soviet era weapons (And they did have quite few female hotties). As for the other units, I wouldn't trust them to run the fry station at McDonalds. Their officers were garbage, and hey had no NCOs to speak of. They seemed more interested in what they could beg, barrow or steal from the US. The only reason many of them were here was because they get a supplement to their pay from the US. Most of the officers seemed to out to fatten their own wallets on the backs of their troops.

They need to make clean sweep of the officer corps, actually form a NCO corps, and enforce discipline in the units (that doesn't mean you beat your soldiers, but lead by example). It's a little hard when your officers treat their troops like peasants. They'll never show them any respect, you can't lead by fear alone.

At a minimum, it'll take them five years to weed out the old guard, and start replacing them with a better trained officer corps. If they start now, it'll take five to ten years before they have a seasoned NCO corps within their enlisted ranks, and these guys will be the backbone of any force they field. Until they do, they need to stay as far away from NATO as possible. From what I've seen, if I were the Russians, I wouldn't be worrying about them starting a war, but I would be checking my pockets to see if I still had my wallet, or if the tires were still on my car in the morning.

Top Finance Blogs Ranked by Alexa

noreply@blogger.com (admin) — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:42:00 +0000

1 Seekingalpha.com TR: 2,734 (3,859 links from 683 blogs) A: 5,161
2 bigpicture.typepad.com/ TR: Unk A: 18,500
3 BloggingStocks.com TR: 595 (55,276 links from 1,558 blogs) A: 18,588
4 TheKirkReport.com TR: 114,529 (99 links from 32 blogs) A: 72,680
5 www.fatpitchfinancials.com/ TR: 18,407 (838 links from 177 blogs) A: 86,000
6 TraderMike.net TR: 6,891 (2,542 links from 377 blogs) A: 88,325
7 www.theessentialsoftrading.com/Blog TR: Unk A: 92,487
8 247wallst.blogspot.com TR: 19,067 (3,381 links from 170 blogs) A: 100,000
9 22dollars.com TR: 227,372 (82 links from 17 blogs) A: 123260
10 www.howardlindzon.com/ TR: Unk A: 151,800
11 valueinvestingnews.com/ TR: 114,529 (352 links from 32 blogs) A: 190,351
12 www.brettsteenbarger.com/weblog.htm TR:97,528 (328 lnks fm 37 blgs)A:193,425
13 investorgeeks.com/ TR: 27,742 (411 links from 118 blogs) A: 210,000
14 tickersense.typepad.com/ TR: 45,277 (563 links from 74 blogs) A: 223,322
15 BillCara.com TR: 15,637 (840 links from 201 blogs) A: 226,231
16 antandsons.com/wordonthestreet.html TR: 703,564 (10 links from 5 blogs)A:249,040
17 www.informationarbitrage.com. TR: 22,429 (452 links from 148 blogs) A: 249,136
18 Footnoted.org TR: 12,952 (792 links from 243 blogs) A: 250,000
19 jeffmatthewsisnotmakingthisup.blogspot.com/ TR: Unk A: 253,941
20 www.maddmoney.blogspot.com/ TR: 100,673 (62 links from 36 blogs) A: 254,062
21 blog.fallondpicks.com/ TR: 103,872 (147 links from 35 blogs) A: 258,565
22 Gannononinvesting.com TR: Unk A: 258,880
23 randomroger.blogspot.com/ TR: 24,590 (891 links from 133 blogs) A: 281,838
24 stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/ TR: 41,307 (2,342 links from 81 blogs) A: 283,368
25 www.nyquistcapital.com/ TR: 59,891 (224 links from 58 blogs) A: 294,395
26 Maoxian.com TR: 29,668 (442 links from 109 blogs) A: 295,000
27 equityinvestmentideas.blogspot.com/ TR:34,494 (839 links from 98 blogs)A:328324
28 www.alphatrends.blogspot.com/ TR: 27,202 (1,801 links from 122 blogs) A: 356,374
29 www.crossingwallstreet.com/links.html TR: Unk A: 358,805
30 www.uglychart.com/ TR: 30,559 (592 links from 109 blogs) A: 444,643
31 www.philstockworld.com TR: 122,861 (86 links from 30 blogs) A: 451,763
32 www.controlledgreed.com/ TR: 44,136 (499 links from 76 blogs) A: 477,099
33 valuediscipline.blogspot.com TR: 63,239 (134 links from 52 blogs) A: 551,821
34 www.underthecounter.net/ TR: 82,809 (153 links from 43 blogs) A: 565,367
35 billakanodoodahs.com TR: 54,399, (272 links from 63 blogs) A: 574,283
36 accountingobserver.com/blog/ TR: 53,230 (87 links from 61 blogs) A: 698,000
37 www.thestalwart.com/the_stalwart/ TR:52,070 (127 links from 64 blogs) A:698,107
38 peridotcapital.blogspot.com TR: 137,966 (75 links from 27 blogs) A: 878370
39 www.sinletter.com/ablog.aspx TR: 914,044 (5 links from 4 blogs) A: 910,657
40 moderngraham.com TR: 119,719 (1,166 links from 30 blogs) A: 1,061,000
41 theaveragejoeinvestor.blogspot.com/ TR: Unk A: 1,147,942
42 The Ponderings of Woodrow TR:28,703 (345 lnks fm 116 bgs) A:1,227,227
43 www.31contracts.com/ TR: 436,634 (11 links from 9 blogs) A: 1,340,103
44 10qdetective.blogspot.com/ TR: Unk A: 1,389,000
45 valuestockplus.blogspot.com/ TR: Unk A: 1,435,000
46 StockCoach.Blogspot.com TR: 134,163 (200 links from 27 blogs) A: 1,500,000
47 pink-sheets.blogspot.com TR: 240,984 (50 links from 15 blogs) A: 1,700,000
48 ValueBlogReview.blogspot.com TR: 94,177 (142 links from 37 blogs) A: 1,755,680
49 mikesnewsletterinvesting.blogspot.com/ TR:101,288(109 lks fm 35 bgs)A:1,829,000
50 financeandinvestments.blogspot.com/ TR: Unk A: 1,831,507
51 www.financialnirvana.com/ TR: 234,098 (667 links from 16 blogs) A: 1,941,724
52 themicrocapspeculator.blogspot.com/ TR: Unk A: 2,100,000
53 theflyonthewallblog.blogspot.com/ TR:158,343 (77 links from 23 blogs)A:3,187,800
54 tradinggoddess.com/ TR: Unk A: 3,522,472
55 internetoutsider.typepad.com/ TR: Unk A: 4,359,555
56 filteringwallstreet.blogspot.com/ TR: 201,778 (62 links from 19 blogs) A: 4,364,470
57 paulstocks.blogspot.com/ TR: 936,918 (34 links from 4 blogs) A: 4613812
58 oneguysinvestments.com/ TR: 382,132 (12 links from 10 blogs) A: 4,880,000
59 Davidneubert.com TR: Unk A: 5,476,207
60 thetrendtrader.blogspot.com/ TR: Unk A: 6,000,000

Russia's richest woman buys Fame Academy mansion for £50m - only a year after it was sold for £32m

noreply@blogger.com (admin) — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 10:36:00 +0000

After being sold last year for £32million, the biggest private house in London bar Buckingham Palace has just been bought for £50million - a 56 per cent rise in 12 months.

Witanhurst, a 90-room Grade II Queen Anne listed mansion in Highgate, is the latest investment by the Mayor of Moscow's wife Elena Baturina.

She is the richest woman in Russia in her own right with a fortune of £1.3billion.

The property has been used for the BBC's Fame Academy in the past and the Queen even played tennis there as a girl at a pre-Wimbledon party hosted by a former owner.

It is in a dilapidated state, with holes in the ceilings and crumbling cornices, and no work has been done on it since it was bought from an Arab family by property developer Marcus Cooper last July.

But with her company, Inteco, said to be the most successful building conglomerate of the post-Soviet era, 45-year-old Miss Baturina should have no problem restoring Witanhurst to its former glory.

Something of a controversial figure in Russia, Miss Baturina is said to have her pick of many of the more lucrative construction contracts in Moscow.

Rant about the weather

noreply@blogger.com (tiar) — Fri, 08 Feb 2008 14:59:00 +0000

"We had another 8-inches of snow that dumped on us again a couple of days ago. Man, I am tired of all this crap that we are getting this year. Anyway, this time we got a decent amount of rain which froze underneath the snow. So today being payday, and riding on empty, I went to get ice. Guess what. My dang, gas tank was iced shut. I cut my knuckles trying to chip the ice away (without damaging my paint). To top it off my city, doesn't blade the roads. Because they don't want to damage the roadway. So they just throw salt and sand down and call it good. Then the cities police issue their annual press release reminding citizens are to have their sidewalks and driveways shoveled within 12 hours (or 6 hours from sunrise) to avoid getting a $100 ticket (plus $71 court costs). The gall of the city to expect private citizens to do what they refuse to do on the streets. It is even worse then that. I live on a side street, and I may never even see them come down the street with salt and sand. " source Kevin

Japan stocks rise on Microsoft factor

noreply@blogger.com (tiar) — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 06:39:00 +0000

Shares in Softbank soared as much as 16% and Yahoo Japan was untraded due to a flood of buy orders on Monday in Tokyo, on hopes a potential Microsoft acquisition of Yahoo would boost the Japanese firms’ competitiveness, reports Reuters. Microsoft’s $44.6bn bid for Yahoo announced Friday was priced at $31 per share - a 62% premium to Yahoo Inc’s Thursday close. Internet and mobile phone service company Softbank owns 3.9% of Yahoo Inc in terms of voting rights. Yahoo Japan is owned 41% by Softbank and 33% by Yahoo Inc. The deal, if realised, would be highly positive for Yahoo Japan, said one analyst, as Microsoft’s financial prowess and technological expertise would help Yahoo Inc and Yahoo Japan compete better with Google in internet search services. Meanwhile, a weekend report in the Nikkei business newspaper said that a Microsoft acquisition of Yahoo Inc would likely result in an alliance among Microsoft, Softbank and Yahoo Japan.

Stock market woes hit hedge funds

noreply@blogger.com (tiar) — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 06:33:00 +0000

January was the worst for hedge funds since the August 1998 crisis that presaged the collapse of Long Term Capital Management, according to data from Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research. The average fund tracked by the HFRX index lost more than 2% in January, with event-driven funds, which include activists, the worst hit with a 3.39% loss. Equity long-short funds – which also tend to be exposed to declines in stock markets – were badly hit too. Funds that had long positions on stock markets lost out as UK blue-chips fell 6.6% and the S&P 500 fell 6% over the month. For example, the computer-driven RIEF fund from Jim Simons’ Renaissance Technologies, one of the best-respected hedge funds, was down about 4%, as it is structured to be long the market.

Microsoft + Yahoo = Microsoft - $44.6 billion

noreply@blogger.com (tiar) — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 15:40:00 +0000

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O: Quote) has made an unsolicited offer to buy Yahoo Inc (YHOO.O: Quote) for $44.6 billion in cash and stock, seeking to join forces against Google Inc (GOOG.O: Quote) in what would be the biggest Internet deal since the Time Warner-AOL merger.

In its boldest-ever acquisition move, Microsoft said on Friday it offered $31 per share for Yahoo, or a 62 percent premium over the Internet media company's closing stock price on Nasdaq Thursday.

Yahoo, whose shares jumped to $30.75 in premarket trading, said it would evaluate the bid.

Microsoft shares, which have a market capitalization of about $300 billion, fell 6 percent to $30.78.

20% Return

noreply@blogger.com (tiar) — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 11:10:00 +0000

INVESTOR 1
Investor 1 wants to do right by herself and her money. She’s worked hard to stash away $1000, and she’s determined to maximize her return. So over the course of a year she spends much of her time online researching stocks. She keeps up with all the news, trades often, and is alternately exhilerated and stressed with every volatile turn in the markets.
She does well and earns a 20% return – even after taxes and all those trading fees! At the end of the year her $1000 has turned into $1200. She smiles and pats herself on the back. Then she flips on CNBC to see if she can pick up some tips on how to duplicate that return next year.
INVESTOR 2
Investor 2 also worked hard to stash away $1000. She too wants to do what’s best for her financial future by making that money grow as fast as possible. Therefore she sticks her $1000 in an index fund. She knows this will minimize fees and taxes and - more importantly - that she can just let that money sit there without having to spend a lot of time tracking the markets, trading stocks, or doing research.
She’s diversified, and at the end of the year she has returned 8% on her money with little to no effort. She smiles, satisfied, and knows that over time she’ll probably end up averaging that return.
AND THE WINNER IS…
Investor 2! [trumpets blare] So wait–why is Investor 2 better off than Investor 1!? No, not because she’s taking the slow and steady route to win the race, and not because she appears to be more sensible than Investor 1 or because she better manages her time and values balance in her life (although those are all good reasons).
Investor 2 wins simply because she ended the year with over $1,700 while Investor 2 only had $1200 in her account. “What?!” you cry. “But Investor 2 only made 8%; how can she end up with $1,700??–that’s a 70% return!” Good catch by you. I left out one detail: Investor 2 managed to put away an additional $50 a month during the course of the year. She used her extra time not to chase returns on the latest booming sector but rather to make lunches for work, learn to effectively grocery shop, mow her own lawn instead of pay the neighbor kid, and cook dinner more often.
The Moral of the StoryOK, so if she actually did all those things she could have saved a lot more than $50/mo. She could have spent all her free time playing Guitar Hero 3, but the point is that putting away more money is a whole lot more effective than trying to maximize your return.
source: allfinancialmatters .com

Spending money on personal luxuries

noreply@blogger.com (tiar) — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 11:02:00 +0000

I've read a few articles about the philosopher Peter Singer, who, if I understand his ideas correctly, believes that all life has equal value, and that consequently we should all be vegetarians, and to take things to an extreme, that it's amoral for anyone to have luxuries while others are suffering. It's an interesting idea-- if you assume that each person who works as hard as they can, to the best of their ability, is equally deserving of rewards, how do we justify the different levels of luxury enjoyed by CEOs vs. teachers vs. people who work in factories in China? And are any of those people, all of whom have an income that can probably meet their basic needs, morally obligated to donate the rest of their money to better the lives of people for whom self-sufficiency isn't an option, and that only once all those people have been taken care of can anyone justify spending money on personal luxuries?

World Economic Update

noreply@blogger.com (tiar) — Wed, 30 Jan 2008 11:27:00 +0000

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has again cut its forecast for world economic growth and is bracing for more bad news in rich and poor countries, even as it stopped short of using the word "recession" on Tuesday (WASHINGTON).

This year, the global economy will post its weakest performance in five years, the global economic watchdog said in an update to its semi-annual World Economic Outlook report.

The warning comes days after IMF managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn broke with tradition and asked governments to spend more - even at the cost of increasing budget deficits, which the agency normally considers a cardinal sin - to stimulate their economies. Strauss-Kahn cited the severity of the unfolding downturn.

Growth in 2008 likely will slow to 4.1%, from 4.9% in 2007. Last October, it predicted 4.4% growth for 2008. This would be the worst performance since 2003, when the world economy grew by 3.6%, according to the IMF.

"The overall balance of risks to the global growth outlook is still tilted to the downside," the fund said.
"Growth in emerging market countries that are heavily dependent on capital inflows could be particularly affected, while the strong momentum of domestic demand in some emerging market countries provides upside potential" according to the World Economic Outlook Update.

The report also points to other risks: "monetary policy faces the difficult challenge of balancing the risks of higher inflation and slower economic activity although a possible softening of oil prices could moderate inflation pressures".

U.S. growth is projected by the IMF to slow to 1.5% this year, down from 2.2% in 2007 but the update points out that the 2008 number reflects the carryover from 2007. Projections on a quarterly basis (Q4-Q4) give a better sense of the slowing growth momentum. On this basis, growth is projected at 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2008, compared with 2.6% during the same period of 2007. IMF also describes the recent move by the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut rates by 75 basis points as “appropriate and helpful”.

For the Euro area growth on an annual basis is projected at 1.6% in 2008, down from 2.6% last year. On a Q4-Q4 basis, growth is projected at 1.3%, compared with 2.3% in 2007. IMF economist Simon Johnson said inflation remained a serious concern in Europe and the European Central Bank had done a good job of managing liquidity.

The world’s second largest economy Japan has been dampened by a tightening in building standards, while consumer and business sentiment have weakened. Japan's growth is forecast on an annual basis at 1.5% in 2008, down from 1.9% last year.

Regarding emerging markets and developing countries, led by China and India they have continued to expand strongly. These countries have benefited from the strong momentum of domestic demand, more disciplined macroeconomic policy frameworks, and in the case of commodity exporters, from high food and energy prices. But growth is also expected to ease moderating from 7.8% in 2007 to 6.9% in 2008. In China, growth is projected to decelerate from 11.4% to 10%.

Headline inflation has increased since mid-2007 in both advanced and emerging economies and has become a major challenge. Core inflation has also drifted upward. In the United States, the Federal Reserve has been cutting interest rates in response to increasing downside risks to activity, while policy has been on hold in the Euro area and Japan. Meanwhile, central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy in many emerging market economies, where food and energy represent a higher share of consumption baskets and overheating is more of a concern.

In a separate Global Financial Stability Report Markets Update IMF said that deteriorating economic conditions could exacerbate pressures on major financial institutions that have already suffered big losses from the subprime crisis.

A possibly deeper economic downturn in the United States or elsewhere could also serve to widen the crisis beyond the subprime sector, as credit deteriorates more broadly, it stated. Already delinquency rates in 2007 vintages of U.S. prime mortgages (those to the most credit worthy borrowers) are rising faster than in previous years, albeit from low levels, and other forms of consumer credit show signs of deterioration.

IMF warns that in Western Europe signs of a future slowdown in credit growth are just now emerging and there is some potential for worsening credit quality as lending has been very robust in some countries and several countries face housing markets considered overvalued.

Lending in some segments of the corporate sector also expanded rapidly in the first half of 2007 with the rise in leverage buyouts. Weaker quality corporates have already seen a substantial rise in the cost of credit although yields investment grade debt has remained relatively stable. Additionally, a slowing economy will likely exacerbate the tighter credit environment further as unemployment picks up and job growth slows.

Emerging markets have been resilient so far, but face challenges ahead. Emerging market equities have outperformed mature equity markets, but prices in some markets have declined steeply since the start of the year on expectations that the U.S. economy may slow more rapidly.

The 19 biggest trading scams

noreply@blogger.com (tiar) — Fri, 25 Jan 2008 14:03:00 +0000

Company: Societe Generale (2008) Detail: Lost 4.9 billion euros ($7.2 billion) before taxes after trader went beyond permitted limits on European stock index futures.

Company: Bank of Montreal (2007) Detail: Wrong-way bets on natural gas led to a pretax loss of about C$680 million ($663 million).

Company: Amaranth Advisors LLC (2006) Detail: Trader Brian Hunter's bad bets on natural gas triggered $6.6 billion of losses.

Company: Refco Inc. (2005) Detail: Declared bankruptcy after hiding $430 million of debt

Company: China Aviation Oil (2004) Detail: Lost $550 million on (Singapore) Corp. speculative oil-futures trades, forcing debt restructuring.

Company: Allied Irish Banks Plc (2002) Detail: Trader hid $691 million in currency market losses.

Company: Plains All American (1999) Detail: Lost $160 million because of Pipeline LP unauthorized crude-oil trading by an employee.

Company: Long-Term Capital (1998) Detail: Lost $4 billion after a debt Management default by Russia

Company: Peregrine Investments (1998) Detail: Collapsed from at least Holdings Ltd. $300 million of debt bought from insolvent companies.

Company: National Westminster (1997) Detail: Disclosed $125 million charge Bank Plc to cover options-trading loss.

Company: Deutsche Morgan (1996) Detail: Fired fund manager Peter Young Grenfell for unauthorized trading and paid $279 million to bail out investors.

Company: Sumitomo Corp. (1996) Detail: Disclosed a $2.6 billion loss on unauthorized copper trades by Yasuo Hamanaka.

Company: Daiwa Bank (1995) Detail: Disclosed a $1.1 billion loss from unauthorized trades.

Company: Barings Plc (1995) Detail: Collapsed after trader Nick Leeson racked up $1.4 billion in losses.

Company: Orange County (1994) Detail: Lost $1.7 billion from debt California and derivatives used to expand its investment fund.

Company: Kidder Peabody & Co. (1994) Detail: Took a $210 million charge to reflect what it said were false bond trading profits by trader Joseph Jett.

Company: Codelco (1994) Trader Juan Pablo Davila lost more than $200 million speculating on copper

Company: Metallgesellschaft AG (1993) Detail: Lost more than $1.5 billion trading oil futures contracts
Company: Drexel Burnham (1990) Detail: Filed for bankruptcy after Lambert Inc. pleading guilty to charges of insider trading and stock manipulation.

Bank hit by $7.1 billion trader fraud

noreply@blogger.com (tiar) — Thu, 24 Jan 2008 14:37:00 +0000

The Societe Generale Bank says it has uncovered "massive" fraud by a trader on its futures desk in Paris which resulted in a loss of 4.9 billion euros.

The bank said the fraud was based on simple transactions, but concealed by "sophisticated and varied techniques".

SocGen said that the employee, who has confessed to the fraud, has been suspended and a dismissal procedure had been initiated.

It also announced new write-downs of 2.05bn euros related to the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the US.

The bank's shares, which were suspended in the morning, lost 3.6% when they resumed trading.

Societe Generale is one of the main European financial services companies and also maintains extensive activities in others parts of the world.

Greenspan to join New York hedge fund firm: report

noreply@blogger.com (tiar) — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 07:25:00 +0000

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is set to join hedge-fund firm Paulson & Co. as an adviser, The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday. New York-based Paulson, with assets of $28 billion, is set to make the announcement on Tuesday, the report said.

Credit Opportunities Fund (Paulson & Co.) +590% (in 2007)

“Magnit”

noreply@blogger.com (tiar) — Wed, 26 Dec 2007 08:29:00 +0000

Top manager of a major Russian investment bank informed that retail chain “Magnit” is planning to conduct a follow-on offering of shares in London in the nearest future. It aims to raise at least US$500m.
Other investment bankers familiar with the company’s plans added that Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley have been appointed organizers of the deal, during which additionally issued shares will be sold on the LSE. The offering will take place in April-May 2008.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

noreply@blogger.com (tiar) — Wed, 26 Dec 2007 07:35:00 +0000

A region's gross domestic product, or GDP, is one of the ways of measuring the size of its economy. The GDP of a country is defined as the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time (usually a calendar year). It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production (the intermediate stages) of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.

The most common approach to measuring and understanding GDP is the expenditure method:

GDP = consumption + investment + (government spending) + (exports − imports), or, GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)
"Gross" means depreciation of capital stock is not included. With depreciation, with net investment instead of gross investment, it is the net domestic product. Consumption and investment in this equation are the expenditure on final goods and services. The exports minus imports part of the equation (often called cumulative exports) then adjusts this by subtracting the part of this expenditure not produced domestically (the imports), and adding back in domestic area (the exports).

Gazprom has bought OGK-6

noreply@blogger.com (tiar) — Tue, 25 Dec 2007 10:34:00 +0000

Dec. 25 (Bloomberg) -- OAO Gazprom, Russia's biggest company, is set to gain control of OAO OGK-6, the nation's third-largest power generator by capacity, after spending almost 21 billion rubles ($850 million) on new shares.

Gazprom will own a little more than 50 percent in OGK-6 following Unified Energy's breakup after purchasing the 5.5 billion new shares, according to Bloomberg calculations.

Gazprom is poised to dominate two out of the six national wholesale generating companies, or OGKs, being created under reforms to introduce competition and raise investment for the world's fourth-largest power network.

The arrangement gives Gazprom influence over power supplies as far east as Siberia and in cities including Moscow and St. Petersburg, Russia's largest cities. Critics say the market reforms could be undermined by Gazprom's emerging dominance in the power sector.

Homefront Mortgage Inc.

noreply@blogger.com (tiar) — Mon, 24 Dec 2007 13:36:00 +0000

We're sure the primary reasons for the shutdown are in the first sentence of Mr. Fry's letter:

"Due to the tremendous number of buy back requests on loans that our loan agent staff funded, and due to the overwhelming number of lawsuits as a result of loans that our loan agent staff funded, and due to the massive increase in our errors and omissions insurance coverage as a result of these issues, Homefront Mortgage Inc. must discontinue all business operations on December 31st 2007.

"This had to be one of the more disturbing "shutdown" letters we've ever seen! We made a phone call and spoke to Stuart Spencer, President. Needless to say, he felt the email was going to be kept a secret, and was not very pleased it was in our hands. In an about-face, he stated "we haven't decided what to do yet." He then proceeded with "Keep your f***king nose out of our business," carefully spelling out the 'F' word, and ended the phonecall with "...and f***k you too."

QUOTE

Eoin Treacy (Fullermoney): Sectoral performance for 2007

noreply@blogger.com (tiar) — Mon, 24 Dec 2007 08:57:00 +0000

“Over the last year, the worst performing sectors have been Homebuilding (-60.69%) Thrifts & Mortgages (52.45%) Real Estate Management (-37.11%), Department Stores (-34.99%), Motorcycle Manufacturers i.e. Harley Davidson (51%) and Regional Banks (-31.2%) This is no secret and real estate related worries have dominated media coverage over the last year.

“However what is less well known is that of the S&P 500’s 147 sector indices, 85 are positive or unchanged for the year. Of these, 7 are up in excess of 50% year-to-date. These were Fertilizer & Agricultural Chemicals (+94.42%), Construction & Engineering (94.24%), Education Services (+84.89%), Coal and Con Fuel (+76.61%) Diversified Metals (71.97%), Internet Retail (64.89%) and Healthcare Services (51.21%. A number of these indices are consolidating their gains and need to sustain moves to new high ground to reaffirm their overall uptrends.

“In the coming year, we can probably expect banks to bottom out and they should perform better than they did this year. So I would be surprised to see them at the bottom of this list a year from now. However with the increase in interest in agriculture, the continued need for infrastructural improvements, not only in the USA, but globally, and the continued secular bull market in all commodities; it is difficult to imagine that the leaders for this year will not be in the upper quartile of performers again next year.”

Source: Eoin Treacy, Fullermoney

Moody’s Economy.com: Survey of business confidence for world

noreply@blogger.com (tiar) — Mon, 24 Dec 2007 08:46:00 +0000

“Global business sentiment is very weak and fragile. This is particularly true in the US where confidence slumped last week to its lowest level in the five years of this survey, and where it is now consistent with a contracting economy. Expectations regarding the outlook through mid-2008 are particularly bleak, and responses regarding sales strength, inventory investment, and office space are also soft. Confidence is stronger outside the US, but it has notably weakened across the globe during the past month. While pricing pressures have risen with oil prices near $100 per barrel, they remain notably muted compared to the pressures that prevailed during previous oil price spurts.”
Source: Moody’s Economy.com

China to Play a Greater Role as Donor at the World Bank

noreply@blogger.com (tiar) — Mon, 24 Dec 2007 08:14:00 +0000

Source: World Bank works with Chinese on Africa; China to Play Greater Role in World Bank

World Bank President Robert Zoellick visited Li Ruogu, the chairman of the Chinese Export-Import Bank to discuss the possibility of conducting joint development projects in the future. The visit also addressed international concerns about Chinese lending in Africa. China has distinguished itself from other donors by not attaching conditionalities to its loans; however, it has yet to provide guarantees of debt forgiveness, either.

Zoellick’s visit reflects the change in the World Bank’s approach to China. The Bank is now working to accommodate China as it transitions from recipient to donor country. As Zoellick noted at his meeting with Li, China has recently made donations to the International Development Association at the World Bank. The Bank is now seeking to recruit more Chinese staff.