Chinese scientist seeded clouds to cause a snowstorm to start the month. Officials say that this is to help ease a drought that has plagued parts of Northern China for decades. This move by Chinese officials apparently didn’t go over well. Snow caused flight delays, snarled traffic, canceled classes and other inconveniences to daily life.  Timing of this storm was also very poor since most of Bejings buildings were not scheduled to have their heating units turned on until November 15th.

Well the debate continues because Bejing is getting hit with another snow storm this week. Official statement says this is a “Natural” storm but The China Daily, citing an unnamed official, said the Beijing Weather Modification Office had artificially induced both storms by seeding clouds with chemicals, a practice that can increase precipitation by up to 20 percent.

If you read my last post on the Moscow Mayor promising no snow this winter, then you know I am not a fan of weather modification. Weather is too unpredicatable as it is. Although you may get the results a mjority of the time but what happens when you don’t? Could there be long range problems or changes in weather patterns.

I love the weather, that’s why I do what I do. You know I understand that there are scenarios and situations that changing the weather or preventing a major natural disaster like a Katrina or a super outbreak of tornadoes would and could save hundreds if not thousands of lives. I guess the question is should we. Do we really need to try and change weather? I am not for weather modification, what do you think?

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This was the post I did for today’s News 8 Weather Blog, I update that daily:

We will have chilly temperatures once again for Friday but we should get sunny skies later in the afternoon. Our highs will be tricky to forecast this afternoon. If we get some sunshine in here later in the morning and into the afternoon then we could get into the low 40s, but if the sunshine remains behind stubborn clouds then highs will be in the upper 30s to near 40.

Good news is the cold won’t last. An area of high pressure to our west will begin to move east on Saturday and our winds will start to come out of the south. Saturday will feature more sunshine and temperatures into the mid 50s. That is about 5 degrees above average. With Sunday also having sunshine and highs getting into the 60s which is 10 degrees above average.

You may remember Meteorologist Bob Metcalfe’s post on Indian Summer, where he posted the definition:

Wikipedia suggests that an Indian summer is “The generally accepted use of the term is when the weather is sunny and clear and above 21°C (70°F), and all of the leaves of the trees have turned but before the first snow has fallen; a period normally associated with mid-October to late-November in the northern states of the U.S.”

We are very close to this definition. No, we will probably not hit 70, but we will be above average. I would say a lot of us have yet to see our first true snowfall and it will be very nice and warm for this time of year. Best advice is get out and enjoy and if you haven’t raked those leaves this is the time to do it.

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Written By: Scott Hetsko

While watching my Yankees win their 27th title last night and the 7th under the Steinbrenner regime I began to wonder…is there a connection between Yankee titles and Rochester snow? The answer is of course not but hey let’s look at the numbers just for fun! If you want a snowy Winter, you should be happy the Yanks won last night. Below are the years the yankees won the series and amount of snow for us the following winter.

1977: 160.9″
1978: 138.5″
1996: 104.7″
1998: 111.6″
1999: 110.7″
2000: 58.1″
2009: ???

Average snowfall after Yankee title: 114.1″

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Could you imagine Mayor Bob Duffy, or Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks promising a Rochester winter with out snow? You’d probably think they lost their minds, but that is what the mayor of Moscow Russia is promising this winter. In an article published on Time.com, the mayor of Moscow, Yury Luzhkov, is promising to keep the snow away from the city by using the Russian Air Force to seed clouds before they reach the city. City officials hope that by seeding these clouds with cement powder, dry ice or silver iodide most of the snow will fall outside of the city.

Apparently, weather modification has been used before in Moscow out ahead of the 2 major holidays of Victory Day in May and City Day in September in order to keep skies clear and the rain from falling on their parades. So how will this work? The city will pay the air force to seed the clouds from November 15th to March 15th to prevent “very big and serious snow” from falling on the city. This promise isn’t for all snow but for the large snows and blizzards that can occur during the winter. It appears they expect some snow to make it into the city but if all goes as plan they won’t have large crippling snow storms. The estimated cost to use weather modification is estimated to be half of what the city of Moscow has budgeted for snow removal each year.

Personally, I don’t know how I feel about this. I am not a big fan of weather modification because I don’t think weather is something humans can control or should even mess with. It will be interesting to see if the Moscow Mayor can come through on his promise and if he succeeds will other cities across the world try to do the same thing? What do you think?

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El Niño in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is expected to be a dominant climate factor that will influence the December through February winter weather in the United States, according to the 2009 Winter Outlook released today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Such seasonal outlooks are part of NOAA’s suite of climate services.

“We expect El Niño to strengthen and persist through the winter months, providing clues as to what the weather will be like during the period,” says Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. “Warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn change the strength and position of the jetstream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and the U.S.”

“Other climate factors are also likely to play a role in the winter weather at times across the country,” added Halpert. “Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.”

• High Resolution (Credit: NOAA)

Highlights of the U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) include:

• Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across much of the western and central U.S., especially in the north-central states from Montana to Wisconsin. Though temperatures may average warmer than usual, periodic outbreaks of cold air are still possible.
• Below-average temperatures are expected across the Southeast and mid-Atlantic from southern and eastern Texas to southern Pennsylvania and south through Florida.
• Above-average precipitation is expected in the southern border states, especially Texas and Florida. Recent rainfall and the prospects of more should improve current drought conditions in central and southern Texas. However, tornado records suggest that there will also be an increased chance of organized tornado activity for the Gulf Coast region this winter.
• Drier-than-average conditions are expected in the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys.
• Northeast: Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather in this region is often driven not by El Niño but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. These patterns are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance.
• California: A slight tilt in the odds toward wetter-than-average conditions over the entire state.
• Alaska: Milder-than-average temperatures except along the western coast. Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-median precipitation for most areas except above median for the northwest.
• Hawaii: Below-average temperatures and precipitation are favored for the entire state.

This seasonal outlook does not predict where and when snowstorms may hit or total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources. Visit http://www.noaa.gov.

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Our winter forecast is out and (as always) I want to list out what I think are the most important points which may get lost in the fray. These come from a meeting I attended this morning where Joe Bastardi and Henry Margusity gave out some talking points and discussed the winter forecast at length (we uploaded a sneak peek video from this meeting to our Facebook Page).

Click here for Jesse’s the full post.

Note: Tomorrow morning NOAA releases their winter forecast for 2009-2010, I will post that too.

From AccuWeather.com: Bastardi Says Core of Winter from D.C. to Charlotte

According to AccuWeather.com’s Chief Meteorologist and Expert Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi, winter will be centered over an area from Maryland to the Carolinas as a fading El Niño results in the stormiest and coldest pattern in recent years.

Bastardi predicts the current El Niño will fade over the winter and will probably not have as much of a role in the overall weather pattern as one would think during a typical El Niño year. In July, Joe was the first to talk about how the fading El Niño will play a role in the winter forecast. This fading El Niño pattern will lead to a stormier and colder winter in the southern and eastern United States. While the El Niño is fading this winter, other factors are pointing to a winter very similar to that of 2002-2003.

A colder, snowier winter would mean added snow removal efforts, more travel delays and extended school closures, especially for the southern schools where snow and ice is predicted.

Northeast and Mid-Atlantic

The areas that will be hit hardest this winter by cold, snowy weather will be from southern New England through the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic, including the Carolinas. Areas from Washington D.C. to Charlotte have had very little snowfall the past two winters. This season these areas could end up with above-normal snowfall.

Northern areas, including Buffalo, Boston and Maine, have been hit hard the past couple of winters, but will see normal snowfall with temperatures slightly below normal this winter.

However, the traditional lake-effect areas of western New York may see local variations of heavier snows. Bastardi adds that while these areas will have a normal winter, the areas farther south that have escaped from the snow and cold the past couple of winters will see the worst winter conditions in the form of snow and cold.

Cities such as New York, Boston and Philadelphia could get up to 75 percent of their total snowfall in two or three big storms.

While some parts of the Appalachians did have harsh winter weather in the form of ice last year, this winter could be one of the snowiest since 2002-2003, when up to 80 inches fell in many places. Snowfall totals this year could reach between 50 and 100 inches in the Appalachians.

Last winter, the usage of salt was way up because of the number of ice storms. Salt supplies could be compromised again this year for state and local road crews that battle the winter weather. On the other hand, ski resorts could have a great year with plenty of powder for skiers.

The storm track that could develop this year will bring storms into Southern California, then across the South and up the Eastern Seaboard. That track will lead to the normal amount of nor’easters from Cape Hatteras to New Jersey.

This type of storm track will differ from that of the past two years, when storms tended to take a track farther west from Texas into the Great Lakes. That track into the Great Lakes brought unseasonably mild weather to the major East Coast cities, keeping them on the rainy side of the storms.

The South

The track this year right along the Eastern Seaboard would put the major cities on the cold, wintry side of the storms. Areas form Atlanta to Charlotte could have several snowstorms this year, which is something that this region has not seen in a while.

The Interstate 20 corridor from Dallas to Atlanta will be a strike zone for ice and snow, given the storm track and proximity to cold air. By the end of the winter, people from Dallas to the Carolinas could say “Wow, we had snow this year!” said Bastardi.

Midwest and Plains

The Midwest and central Plains could get a break this winter, given that past couple of winters have been cold and snowy. Places such as Chicago, Omaha, Minneapolis and Kansas City may have below-normal snowfall and could even average a bit milder than past years.

However, Oklahoma into Texas will be where the cold will lead to ice and snow, and it is not out of the question that snow and ice are as far south as College Station and San Antonio, Texas.

West and Pacific Northwest

A warm and somewhat dry weather pattern is expected from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains. The typical barrage of winter storms that hit Seattle and Portland may not occur this winter, which would lead to below-normal precipitation.

The core of the wet weather will be south of San Francisco into southern California and the Southwest. While some people across Southern California fear the El Ni intense rains, mudslides and flooding as seen this fall.

For example, Los Angeles could have 110 percent of normal rainfall and the Sierra and Southwest mountains will have the normal amount of snowfall which is good for skiers.

The Olympics

The Olympics in Vancouver, British Columbia, from Feb.12 to 28 could be impacted by the lack of snow and cold weather this winter. It is possible that a dry and mild pattern will develop very near to or during the time of the Olympics.

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If you have topics or questions you would like covered please feel free to ask or leave comments.

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Sept. 25 Friday	Sept. 26 Saturday	Sept. 27 Sunday
Nice day, mostly sunny skies.	Partly Sunny, poss. shower in the afternoon/evening	Warmer & mostly cloudy showers likely.
High: 71° Low: 61°	High: 67° Low: 53°	High: 77° Low: 60°

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FORECAST: If I had any popularity after last weekend, I’ve probably lost it with this forecast. On twitter through my account @NASCAR_WXMAN I posted a preliminary forecast that people were not happy to see. Here is what I tweeted: “#NASCAR First look at Dover. Looking wet as of this morning. Strong cold front moves through on Sun. Hope timing will change.”

Well I don’t think that timing has changed much. We are looking at strong trough digging out of the plains and the Great Lakes bringing with it a strong cold front for Saturday night and into Sunday. It looks wet from all I am see at this time. Keep in mind it is only Wednesday but if I was a betting man I would put my money down on rain for Sunday.

So Brian are you calling the race now? No, a lot can happen between now and then. Timing of the system slows or speeds up. I know there is a Nationwide Race at 3pm the Dover 200 then on Sunday the AAA 400. It is to close to call at this point but I feel it is safe to say rain will occur this weekend and it looks very good for Sunday. Of course I will have more tomorrow.

Feel free you leave any comments or questions below. Also if you are on twitter, please feel free to follow me @NASCAR_WXMAN.

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Sept. 19 Saturday	Sept. 20 Sunday
Sunny and cool very fall-like.	Chilly Start but lots of bright sunshine.
High: 67°	High: 73° Low: 32°

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FORECAST: Not much has changed in the forecast and that is good. The above graphic shows well nothing, large strong area of Canadian high pressure sets up shop over the northeast this weekend. It will be sunny but also chilly. Temperatures on Sunday morning will be in the 30s and some near the freezing mark.

Saturday enjoy the sunshine but it will be chilly with highs in the mid 60s but it will reach the low 70s despite the very cold start.

As always I will be tweeting the forecast and about the race from either my NASCAR twitter account @NASCAR_WXMAN or my main account @BrianNeudorff feel free to follow either one of them.

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Sept. 18 Friday	Sept. 19 Saturday	Sept. 20 Sunday
Chance of a scattered shower this afternoon	Sunny and cool very fall-like.	Chilly Start but lots of bright sunshine.
High: 68°	High: 67° Low: 37°	High: 73° Low: 32°

Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com

FORECAST: Everything looks to be on schedule as far as the weather. A weak cold front could produce a passing shower this afternoon. I did mention that in my forecast from yesterday. Qualifying is at 3pm EDT just have to watch the radar. I may be able to tweet the weather during qualifying from my twitter account@NASCAR_WXMAN so look for details there.

A very large and strong area of high pressure coming out of Canada will set over the northeast this weekend. The biggest story will not be the threat of rain but how down right chill it will be on Saturday. Will be interesting to see how practice and setups are with temps in the 50s and 60s to the race which will see upper 60s and low 70s.

I hope qualifying is not rained out but there will be no issue of rain for Saturday or Sunday. Enjoy the race.

As always I will be tweeting the forecast and about the race from either my NASCAR twitter account @NASCAR_WXMAN or my main account @BrianNeudorff feel free to follow either one of them.

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