By Dr. Hussain Yasa

Dr. Hussain Yasa

At last despite the best efforts of the terrorists, Pakistan has successfully conducted its 14^th General Elections. Of course there are some reports of irregularities and rigging in many polling stations allover Pakistan. But these reports do not add up to systematic rigging on a scale which could affect the national result. The first element of the result was the turnout. At around 60% it far exceeded the turnout in previous elections and can be taken as an endorsement of the process by tens of millions of ordinary Pakistanis. Observers broadly seem satisfied with the conduct of the elections, especially bearing in mind the difficult circumstances in which the parties campaigned and people voted. Domestically and internationally many have applauded the performance of the Election Commission of Pakistan.

The Pakistan Muslim League (N), led by two times ex Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, emerged as the largest Party.  By Sunday evening PML(N) had picked up 125 out of the 272 directly elected seats in the lower house, with 37 more to be declared. This left PML (N) by far the largest party in parliament, and hoping to be able to form a government with the support of a few independents, rather than in coalition with other parties. It had been widely predicted that PML (N) would top the polls. But few anticipated the scale of Nawaz Sherif’s victory.

In the end the high turnout favored PML (N) as its powerful campaign machinery across Punjab brought out the voters. Many observers had thought that a high turnout might be a sign of new voters deserting the traditional parties. Tehreek-e Insaf (PTI) led by Imran Khan hoped to be the main beneficiary of the surge in new voters. These predictions turned out to be well wide of the mark. PML (N) slightly improved its position relative to 2008 in all provinces but swept the board in the Punjab provincial assembly, with a two thirds majority.

The other clear result of the election was the resounding defeat of the Pakistan People’s Party. By Sunday evening they had only with 30 seats and were struggling towards a final total under 40 seats. This left them vying with PTI for second position in the National Assembly, the most miserable result the party has achieved since its foundation. The party is largely confined to the rural strongholds of Sindh and came third across most of Punjab. The strategy of President Asif Ali Zardari, the co-chairman of the party was to use Imran Khan as a tool to weaken Nawaz Sharif in Panjab backfired as such progress as PTI made was at the expense of PPP and its allies, not PML (N).  Most of Zardari’s Panjabi comrades, including ex cabinet ministers and two former prime ministers lost their seats. Pakistan Muslim League- Q, the coalition partner of PPP in Panjab also lost in the same way. Now, Pakistan People’s Party will only retain its provincial government in Sindh. Although the party has clear majority in Sindh assembly but still has to keep onboard its old alliance partner Mutahida Qaoumi Movement (MQM).

Pakistan Tehreek-e Insaf (PTI) also performed well but below the expectations of its Chairman Imran Khan. He had hoped to gain the majority in the lower house. Serious observers of course always knew there was an element of self-delusion in the Imran Khan confidence.  Still, many observers expected PTI to do better than the 32 seats they got in the early results. Many pre-poll surveys marked PTI as top favorite in the urban areas. Nevertheless PTI’s achievement is respectable. The party has progressed from obscurity to being one of the two main opposition parties nationally. It has become the largest party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The PTI victory in KP Province delivered the other stunning result of this election – the annihilation of the traditional secular Pakhtun nationalist party, ANP. The party simply disappeared from both the national and provincial assemblies, a resounding rejection by the voters of the main ally of the PPP in government. Asfandyar Wali, the Party head lost his seat to Jamiate Ulemaye Islam-Fazlur Rehman (JUI-F).

MQM held onto the urban areas of Sindh and even improved its performance in the provincial assembly elections. It got 19 seats in the early results. The MQM’s tight grip on Karachi, the largest city and the main economic hub of Pakistan proved to be an effective remedy for the reaction against PPP and partners. 

The election reaffirmed the marginal role of explicitly religious parties in Pakistan national politics. Jamiate Ulemaye Islam-F and Jamiat Islami picked up a handful of seats in the national assembly. Only in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa did they pick up a fifth of the seats. But here too they were well beaten by PTI which seems to have been better than the mullahs at capitalising on anti-American sentiments.

An explanation of the PML-N success

The main reasons for the PML-N victory are:

1.       Bad governance, corruption and failure to deliver by the PPP-led coalition. The previous government failed to address the energy shortage, economic crisis and terrorism.

2.       PML-N was helped in its election campaign since it was the only main party which seemed completely free from fear of Taliban attack on its campaign. Many believe that Taliban had a secret deal with Nawaz Sharif. By mounting repeated attacks on their rallies they didn’t allow the secular parties to conduct their election campaign. In particular PPP, ANP and MQM could not run effective campaign. There were many suicide attacks and explosions in meetings and rallies of these parties. The only party which proved able to cope with this threat was MQM because of its strong party structure and discipline. MQM also benefited from its strong base in urban areas where people have access to electronic media and internet based social media.

3.       The better performance of the PML-N government in Panjab where Shahbaz Sharif, the younger brother of Nawaz Sharif served as chief minister during last five years. Shahbaz Sharif has also been hyper energetic in his public dealing and many give him the credit for the triumph in these elections.

4.       The anti-incumbency sentiment is another main factor. Ruling over Pakistan in current conditions is not an easy task. No government has addressed the popular expectations for progress towards a peaceful and prosperous life. In Pakistan it seems that parties never get elected for consecutive terms.

5.       Ultimately PML’s projection of the idea of trusting a tested leader proved more appealing than PTI’s appeal to trust someone who has not held office.

6.       Nawaz Sherif was the one who calibrated his anti American stance at just the right level for voters. He used slogans of a sovereign Pakistan, promises of radical reform and new jobs creation and vows to bring quick peace and stability by talking with the Taliban.        

Ultimate Result

The real question is whether the new government will be able to take the policy decisions required in Pakistan’s current crisis. Nawaz Sherif is the one who will face the challenge. But he will be looking at every last result in the National Assembly to calculate just how much dependent he will be on support from outside the party to be able to govern. In his victory speech he indicated his willingness to form a coalition if necessary. But he would probably prefer to govern with the support of the independents rather than a coalition with one of the other major parties.

Challenges

1.       To address the huge expectations of Pakistani people is a difficult task. Nawaz will face exactly the same challenges which were the cause of the downfall of PPP. Will Nawaz Sharif keep his promise to end tiresome load shedding, reduce violence and political instability and improve economic performance? All this remains to be seen.  

2.       Nawaz Sharif will have to work out how to cohabit with Asif Ali Zardari, who stays on as President. The PPP is down but not out. It retains a majority in the senate and still has grassroots support in Sindh, the second large province of Pakistan. A confrontation with its President would be a gamble and probe into corruption cases against the incumbent president may remain a dream for Nawaz Sharif rather he has to calm down his anti Zardari sentiments to rule smoothly.

3.       Although, PML-N has emerged as the larger party nationally it remains mainly a party of Panjabis. Apart from Panjab, all other provincial governments are likely to be led by other parties. To maintain national unity Nawaz will have to carry the other parties with him.

4.       He promised to initiate talks with the Taliban. But they don’t recognize the constitution of Pakistan and wanted to topple the PPP led government because of its close collaboration with US led war on terror. The question remains to be answered as to what Nawaz Sharif will be able to do differently from the PPP led coalition. Will he do an unsavory deal with the Taliban in pursuit of quick fixes in Pakistan? Will he be in a position to stop the drone attacks in tribal areas held by Taliban and its Al Qaeda friends? What will be his policy on NATO supply?

5.       Another important issue has been the difficult relationship of Nawaz Sharif with the military establishment of Pakistan. So far PML (N) stance on war on terror has not been the same as of the Pakistan Army’s stand of considering it as own war and not for Americans. Nawaz Sharif has to develop a consensus on the issue with the Army lest the people of Pakistan would continue to suffer due to absence of a consistent national policy to counter terrorism. Now, he has to manage this issue. Another important issue is the trial of the ex military ruler Gen. Pervez Musharaf who toppled his elected government in 1999. If his federal government will charge him with committing national treason, what will be immediate reaction of Pakistan Army?

Dr. Hussain Yasa is the Chief editor of the daily Outlook Afghanistan

By Dr. Hussain Yasa

Today, the people of Pakistan are going to take an important political decision for its leadership for the next five years.  Today’s elections seem to be the most interesting one in the recent history of Pakistan in particular after two long tenures of the army rule (Gen. Zia-ul-Haq- 1977 to 1988 and Gen. Pervez Musharaf- 1999 to 2008). The elections are for the 14^th national and provincial assemblies of Pakistan. The people of Pakistan vote for 372 seats of the lower house of the national assembly and 728 seat of the 4 provincial assemblies.  In these elections the unpredictability is the most important factor which further makes the political scenario more interesting. In the previous elections, it was easy to assess the results in advance since traditionally there were always clear contests between the liberals (PPP, MQM, ANP) and pro-establishment and orthodox politico-religious parties (PML, JUI, JI etc.).     

But these elections has become more attractive by the entrance of a third party “Pakistan Tehrek-e Insaf or PTI” (movement for justice) led by cricketer turned politician, Imran Khan. Seventeen years back in 1996 when he established his party no one believed that one day he will be one of the serious contestant for the premiership of Pakistan.

Although, this elections is still full of ambiguities but the probable post election scenario might not be optimistic for an ordinary Pakistani citizen for a change that could play a determined role in the restoration of political and economic stability.

Important Players     

Pakistan People’s Party- Since its inception in 1967, PPP in Pakistan’s recent history remained the only political party, having grass root level representation having liberal democratic norms. The charisma of its founding leader Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto based its manifesto on secularism and social equality, and ruled over the hearts and minds of the millions of Pakistanis for decades. It gained power for four times and still it is supposed to have its core support intact particularly in the second largest province of Sindh. The last rule of the party, it indeed has been tainted by the allegations of corruption and the involvement of its ministers in sectarian activities and vandalism in Balochistan and Sindh. The quality of its representatives is said to have declined since the assassination of its world fame chairperson Benazir Bhutto. Vague reports also indicated that Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of slain Benazir have had differed with the views of his father, co-chairman Asif Zardari, over the allocation of tickets to infamous party representatives but later reconciled with the situation to resolve it in times ahead.  

While, precisely the ruling PPP could not deliver the way people expected but ruling over Pakistan in such a critical period was not an easy task. Growing terrorism, energy crisis, economic decline, corruption and ill-governance were the main causes of the seriously drawdown of the Party graph. 

After the assassination of Benazir Buttho in a suicide attack on December 27, 2008, the party faced an un-compensable loss but her husband Asif Ali Zardari, the PPP’s co-chairman and the incumbent president of the country to some extend managed to keep party united and gained the power under a huge public sentiments voted for PPP as a sign of dedication to Benazir Bhutto. In spite of shortage of number for a simple majority, PPP successfully completed its constitutional tenure with the help of its coalition partners. In the last countrywide general elections in 2008 PPP scored 125 seats including the reserved seats of women, minorities and 7 independent winners. The party still enjoys mass support all over Pakistan with its stronghold Sindh province where still no other party could replace it. However, growing support for MQM’s middle class leadership may create dents in the in PPP influence areas in interior urban Sindh. The Sindh province has 75 seats in the lower house of national assembly.

Pakistan Muslim League (N) – Although, the party claims to be the extension of the All India Muslim League under the leadership of Mohammad Ali Jinnah that led the Muslims of sub-continent India to establish Pakistan, a separate country for the Indian Muslim but due to almost a dozen parties under the same name it is a bit difficult to confirm the claim.  

In fact the party was founded by Fida Mohammad Khan, a veteran activist for the freedom of Pakistan and served as the Governor of the then North West Frontier (Now  Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa) Province for three years under the military regime of General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq ( 1985- 1988). After his retirement from politics Nawaz Sharif who was serving as the Secretary General of the party became the president of the party.

Nawaz Sharif was always considered as the pro-establishment politician till 1997. In the general elections held on February 1997 his party scored a landslide victory by two third majorities, a record in the history of Pakistan. After that historic win, Nawaz Sharif detached himself from military establishment and tried to emerge as a real national politician. To gain that status he paid a big prize of the dismissal of his government and imprisonment by Gen. Pervez Musharaf as well as accepted exile after a deal with Gen. Musharaf and left for Saudi Arabia where he spent almost a decade.

There are reports of Nawaz Sharif to have developed intimacy with Osama bin Laden in mid-80’s and for short period served as a courier between Osama and CIA.  Late JI head, Qazi Hussain Ahmed, in one of his interviews also confirmed that Nawaz Sharif had received monetary support from Bin Laden in his effort to gain overwhelming majority support in 1997 election. During his last rule in Punjab, his brother Shahbaz Sharif managed to release at least more than 190 Al Qaeda affiliated Lashkar e-Jhangvi  terrorists, including Malik Ishaq. Malik Ishaq then reported have arranged and supported the biggest sectarian attacks in Balochistan and Sindh. In the recent ongoing election campaign, the Taliban and other sectarian terrorist out fits opposed to the sys democratic franchise did not differentiate between liberal and orthodox religious political parties leaving only PML (N) which they exempted from their attacks. In Balochistan attacks on PML (N) were from secessionist groups and not from Taliban.       

PML-N gained 92 seats in the 2008 elections as well a clear majority in Punjab assembly where it ruled over the last constitutional tenure. The stronghold of this party is Punjab with the total seats of 183, in which PML-N feels threatened to be denied by PTI. Vague reports have suggested that the fire which broke out in the Municipal Plaza in Punjab capital of Lahore on Thursday May 10, 2013, two day prior to general elections, claiming 23 lives so far, contained the files of Major PML (N) projects including Metro Bus Service. If true, it confirms the fears of Sharif brothers against the growing support of PTI in Punjab ahead of investigation of cases expected in future in case PTI gains majority in Punjab the most populated province of Pakistan. 

Pakistan Tehrik-e Insaf (PTI) – This party has gained considerable momentum over the last two years. Imran khan, once the hero of the Pakistan cricket who brought the 1992 champion trophy of the Cricket World Cup—established PTI in February 1996.

This party was never considered as a power broker in the Pakistani politics since last couple of years but now turned as one of the strongest party challenging the aforementioned two main parties. The huge mass rallies of PTI over the last two years hiked the graph of Imran Khan as one of the emerging national leaders. Pre-pole postal voting in Pakistan Army and other civilian government officials serving in areas other than their constituencies have also indicated a trend of mass drift of opinion in the favor of PTI i.e. 85 percent of total votes received so far.

Many believe that Imran Khan led PTI is the new venture of the Pakistan military establishment. This analysis is based on two reasons first the defection the pro establishment politician from the other main stream national parties, who ultimately joined PTI later on and secondly military establishment now doesn’t feel comfortable with both the other main parties mentioned earlier. But two Questions remain unheard; if PTI doesn’t gain a clear majority, how will it perform in opposition under its arch rival PML (N)? Secondly, if it succeeds in elections with a clear majority; how will it cope with Zardari as president already powerful in the Senate?  

This party has absorbed significant number of Pakistani youth with its anti corruption slogan and new power structured based on a philosophy of a moderate Islamic welfare society.

Others- Mutahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) which is based mainly in the urban areas of Sind province has been playing an important role in the national politics. It represents mostly the middle class of the main cities of Karachi, the main economic hub of Pakistan and Haiderabad. MQM with its charismatic leader Altaf Hussain, now a British citizen based in London has been considered as the most organized party of Pakistan. It has been enjoying the clear mandate of Karachi and Haiderabad partially.  

This is a secular party famous with its anti-Taliban stance and trying to invite the attention of Pakistani people toward the Talibanization of urban areas in particular Karachi. MQM was one of the coalition partners during the governments run under the supervision of Gen. Musharaf as well as enjoyed power in a close collaboration with PPP in Sindh and Islamabad.  It is also trying to expand itself in other parts of Pakistan but most of the analysts still think that MQM may remain to its traditional power base.

Awami National Party (ANP) is the continuation of historical movement of Khudai Khidmatgar (Servants of God) led by Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan also famous as Bacha Khan or Sarhadi Gandhi. The party enjoys the support of secular nationalist class of Pashtuns in Khyber Pakhtunkhuwa and to some extend in Balochistan provinces. Although, it has some roots in metropolitan city of Karachi too but it has never been considered as an effective party in the power politics there.

ANP has seen many ups and downs in its history and after a long period again emerged as the biggest party of the Khyber Pakhtunkhuwa province and ruled over there in coalition with PPP since last five years.

Jamiate Ulemaye Islam (F) has been the strongest among the religious parties of Pakistan with its roots in Khyber Pakhtunkhuwa and Balochistan provinces. Moulana Fazlu Rehman is an experienced politician, succeeded party from his father Moulana Mufti Mehmoud. JUI (F) is has been a pro Taliban party and Moulana himself was considered as the spiritual father of Taliban, ruled over Afghanistan.

Jamate Islami (JI) is another ultra religious party with extra ordinary organized student wing all over Pakistan but it is the misfortune of this party that could not covert its huge student base support into a reliable vote bank.

In addition to above mentioned parties there many more small parties which are playing roles in their localities in particular Balochistan province but on the level of national politics their part is more symbolic in nature.

The terrorism factor- there is no shadow of any doubt that Pakistani security agencies seem to be helpless in facing the menace of terrorism. The resonance of North Wazistan, the main hub for the Pak-Afghan Taliban and banned fanatic religious organizations as well many other international terrorist outfits has seriously under shadowed every walks of life in Pakistan. How the Pakistani concerned authorities will deal with this challenge is another question but it has now involved in the move to divert the mandate of the people by targeting the moderate parties. Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has announced openly that they will not allow the moderate parties to campaign for the General Elections.

Three main moderate secular parties PPP, ANP and MQM have been the prime targets of TTP. None of the parties could run their election campaign properly. These parties blame TTP for bargaining with right wing parties to facilitate their campaign by preventing the moderate parties from going among the voters.

Conclusion   

The present scenario and the pre-poll assessments don’t show a positive picture of the next parliament of Pakistan. The current picture shows a badly fragmented parliament after the results of today’s elections.

It seems that the ruling Pakistan People’s Party may lose its previous mandate but will remain as one of the main parties with around 50-55 seats in the lower house as well as still a majority party in the senate. It will retain its mandate in Sindh with minor injuries but may continue with the provincial government.

Although, in the failure of PPP government many visible and invisible factors may have role but still many  believe in the political guts of President Zardari who successfully make the other parties dance as per his music in the past. It is said that Zardari may also get the advantage of the scattered mandate and think of a broader coalition with only prime minister from his party and the rest of the cabinet from other parties provided invisible forces not stop him from doing so.

Pre-poll assessment in Pakistan and the abroad consider PML-N as the strongest of all and judge it as the biggest party in the next parliament of Pakistan since it enjoys the big support in Punjab province, the main chessboard of the Pakistan politics. But no one believes that it will score even simple majority and it will be difficult to gain more than 80 seats with all its strength. As well no one doubts that it will not lose the next provincial government of Punjab.

There is no doubt that PTI will be another major force in the next Pakistani parliament but still it may remain a distant dream for Imran Khan to sweep the elections. If it gained up to 40-45 seats it could be new change in the Pakistani politics as an emerging third force. Analysts also think that if the turnout grew from traditionally 45% to 55-60% PTI may be the sole benefiter of the situation and may perform remarkably. Many anticipate that PTI will not only break the main vote bank of PML-N but also knock equally to PPP votes in upper Punjab. However, in southern Punjab PPP and PML-N will remain as the main contenders.

MQM still seems to maintain its mandate in Sindh particularly Karachi City and its status in the parliament may not be changed. In the previous parliament it was the 4^th major block.  PTI will likely emerge as third political force in Pakistan replacing PML-Q after the elections.

ANP-PPP coalition may lose considerably in Khyber Pakhtukhuwa since PTI, JUI and PML-N may seriously cut their vote bank. But both JUI and ANP may not be able score more than 15 seats.

The effect of Pakistan Elections over Afghanistan

If the right wing parties manage to form the next government of Pakistan it might not be a good message for Afghanistan. If Nawaz Sharif is elected as the next premier of Pakistan the wave of terrorism may calm down in Pakistan but it will likely divert to Afghanistan since some portions of Taliban seem to be now out of control and determine their own policies. PML-N has been one of the parties which enjoyed a full election campaign without any minor incident and an undeclared sympathy of Taliban was observed throughout its campaign. The main targets of Taliban were all those political parties in opposition with PML-N.

If by chance the power remains in the hands of the present coalition, again Afghanistan may not be able to enjoy the dream of decline in violence. In that case other factors may play deteriorating role.

The way the current leadership of Afghanistan leading the country there could be many reasons domestically and internationally for the mishap, the Afghans will continue to face.    

  Dr. Hussain Yasa is the Editor in Chief of the Daily outlook Afghanistan        

MOSCOW/BEIRUT | Wed May 8, 2013 8:17pm BST

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (L) whispers to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during a joint news conference after their meeting in Moscow May 7, 2013.
REUTERS/Mladen Antonov/Pool

Mindful the conflict may be far from over, Britain has urged fellow European Union states to lift an arms embargo, arguing it would strengthen those rebel groups favoured by Western powers.

Visiting Moscow after Israel bombed sites near Damascus and as President Barack Obama also faces renewed calls to arm the rebels, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said late on Tuesday that Russia agreed to work on a conference in the coming weeks.

An East-West disagreement that has seen some of the frostiest exchanges between Washington and Moscow since the Cold War has deadlocked U.N. efforts to settle the Syrian conflict for two years, so any rapprochement could bring an international common front closer than it has been for many months.

Israeli air strikes, reports of the use of chemical weapons and the increasing prominence of al Qaeda-linked militants among the rebels have all added to international urgency for an end to a war that has killed more than 70,000 people.

But with Syria’s factional and sectarian hatreds more entrenched than ever, it is far from clear the warring parties are ready to negotiate with each other. Most opposition figures have ruled out talks unless Assad and his inner circle are excluded from any future transitional government.

“I believe the opposition would find it impossible to hold talks over a government that still had Assad at its head,” said Samir Nashar of the opposition’s umbrella National Coalition.

“Before making any decisions we need to know what Assad’s role would be. That point has been left vague, we believe intentionally so, in order to try to drag the opposition into talks before a decision on that is made.”

In the past, the United States has backed opposition demands that Assad be excluded from any future government, while Russia has said that must be for Syrians to decide, a formula the opposition believes could be used to keep Assad in power.

Opposition members said they were concerned by comments from Kerry in Moscow, echoing Russia, that the decision on who takes part in a transitional government should be left to Syrians.

“Syrians are worried that the United States is advancing its own interests with Russia, using the blood and suffering of the Syrian people,” said National Coalition member Ahmed Ramadan.

Inside Syria, where rebel groups have disparate views, a military commander, Abdeljabbar al-Oqaidi, told Reuters: “If the regime were present, I do not believe we would want to attend.”

There was no immediate response from the Syrian government, which has offered reforms but dismisses those fighting it as terrorists and puppets of outside powers – the West, Turkey and Arab states opposed to Assad’s ally Iran.

EU ARMS BAN

If fears of an escalation of the war are driving new peace moves, they have also set some Western powers looking again at their military options. Washington said last week it was rethinking its opposition to arming the rebels, and on Wednesday it emerged Britain has been lobbying the EU to let it do so, too.

Several EU governments are resisting French and British efforts to get the embargo lifted, concerned that the move could escalate the two-year-old conflict.

In a paper seen by Reuters, London suggested ways the ban could be amended to get arms to the National Coalition. Existing sanctions expire on June 1. With France, the other main military power in the bloc, Britain is trying to persuade Spain, Austria, Sweden and others to ease opposition to arming the rebels.

But with the prospect of the conflict spilling across a volatile region central to global energy supplies and transit routes, major powers also have, as Kerry told Putin on Tuesday, “very significant common interests” in pushing for a settlement.

“The alternative,” Kerry later told a joint news conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, “is that Syria heads closer to an abyss, if not over the abyss and into chaos”.

Both sides fear a failed state in Syria could provide a base for hostile militants willing to strike around the world.

Last June, at a conference in Geneva, Washington and Moscow agreed on the need for a transitional government in Syria, but diplomacy has foundered since then, and the mediator of the Geneva conference, former U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, quit in despair, saying differences among powers were too wide.

Kerry said the conference might be held as early as this month, though no venue has been set.

Russia, backed by China, has vetoed three U.N. Security Council resolutions hostile to Assad. Alarmed at Western powers’ use of a U.N. mandate to oust Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, Moscow and Beijing are wary of such interference in their own affairs.

RISK OF POWER VACUUM

Recent developments have focused minds on the risks of wider war in the Middle East.

The White House said last month that Assad’s troops probably used chemical weapons – which Obama has called a “red line” that would mandate a strong, if unspecified, response. The government and rebels each accuse the other of using poison gas, a charge both sides deny. British Prime Minister David said on Wednesday there was evidence Assad’s forces “continue” to use sarin gas.

But despite pleading from the opposition, Western leaders have been reluctant to weigh in by arming the rebels, especially as Islamist fighters have pledged allegiance to al Qaeda, highlighting the risk to the West that a poorly managed change of leadership in Syria could bring hostile militants to power.

Israeli air strikes in recent days – which Israeli officials said hit Iranian arms headed for Assad and Tehran’s Lebanese allies Hezbollah – underlined the risk of cross-border conflict.

The violence has inflamed a confrontation between Sunni and Shi’ite Muslims in the Middle East, with Shi’ite Iran supporting Assad, and Sunni powers like Saudi Arabia backing the rebels.

Tehran warned of unforeseeable consequences if Assad were toppled and said only a political deal would avert a regional conflagration: “God forbid, if there is any vacuum in Syria, these negative consequences will affect all countries,” Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said. “No one knows what will happen.”

Diplomatic sources in Moscow made clear the latest push for peace was being driven by growing alarm following the Israeli air raids, the possibility of foreign arms pouring into Syria and the possible use of chemical weapons.

Moscow and Washington have also signalled they want to improve cooperation on security matters since the Boston Marathon bombings, which U.S. officials suspect was carried out by ethnic Chechens who had lived in Russia. U.S. officials said FBI chief Robert Mueller had been in Moscow on Tuesday to discuss the bombings, but gave no details.

In a further sign of Washington’s efforts to improve ties with Russia, Kerry avoided any sharp public criticism of Moscow’s human rights record when he met civil rights activists in the Russian capital on Wednesday before his departure.

In Syria, Internet connections and phones to the outside world were restored after a day-long blackout that officials put down to a technical fault on a cable but which opposition activists said was deliberately imposed for military operations.

(Additional reporting by Steve Holland in Washington, Suleiman al-Khalidi in Amman and Arshad Mohammed, Timothy Heritage, Alexei Anishchuk and Steve Gutterman in Moscow; Writing by Alastair Macdonald, Timothy Heritage and Peter Graff; Editing by Will Waterman)

Pakistan is holding its parliamentary elections on Saturday May 11, after the first successful civilian transition in country’s history. AFP PHOTO/Aamir QURESHI

Pakistan is holding its parliamentary elections on Saturday May 11, after the first successful civilian transition in country’s history. However, continued violence, particularly the Taliban attacks have been a daily routine since last week. The Tehreek-Taliban-Pakistan had warned three secular parties—the former ruling coalition Pakistani Peoples’ Party, Mutahida Qawmi Movement and Awami National Party—of attacks, and they have proved it with consecutive bombings of their offices forcing them to limit election campaign through TV advertisements. Leaders of all three parties have avoided public rallies.

About 25 people were killed and 45 wounded when a bomb exploded at a rally of the Jamiat Ulema Islam-F on Monday. The usually pro-Taliban religious party has not been direct target of the Taliban attacks. However, the TTP claimed responsibility for the attack. Similarly, another suicide attack targeted a JUI-F rally on Tuesday in the Hangu district, targeting Mufti Sayed Janan, who was injured. Ten people were killed and at least 22 others injured.

In another bombing on Tuesday in Lower Dir District, a PPP candidate Haji Zameen Khan was targeted, in which his brother was killed. According to Pakistani media reports, leaflets distributed by the Pakistani Taliban in Peshawar have warned school teachers not to perform their duties on polling day.

The attacks are not only limited to the volatile areas of Federally Administered Tribal Areas. There have been bomb attacks near the headquarters of MQM in Karachi city. An ANP candidate was killed in the city, while another injured last week. Despite continued requests from some political parties, the Army has avoided troops’ deployments to ensure security for polling. On the other hand, right wing parties like the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, Jamaat Islami and Pakistan Tehreek Insaaf seem to have free ground for election campaigning.

Given the long history of military interventions and meddling in electoral affairs, it is highly important that the current civilian transition completes with a free, fair and transparent elections smoothly. The daily attacks could affect the polling day turn out. The Taliban would be successful if people are intimidated to come out for polls. However, the results of such an election when all political parties do not have a level field of campaigning would be unfair. It is unbelievable that the TTP have now spread as a cancer so deep in Pakistan that it has the capability to destabilize elections in Pakistan. But unfortunately the silence of the right wing parties on TTP attacks against the seculars will mean they will continue to grow stronger.

Source: http://outlookafghanistan.net

Afghan schoolgirls board a bus in Qara Zaghan village in Baghlan province on May 7, 2013. AFP PHOTO/ SHAH Marai

Scores of girls’ schools over recent years have seen mysterious mass faintings, nausea and similar symptoms that are often blamed by police and the local media on poisoning by Taliban insurgents or toxic gas leaks.

But no laboratory evidence of poison or other toxins has ever been found at schools and no deaths have occurred, with the girls often released from hospital after only a few hours.

In the latest case, 200 girls were reported to have been “poisoned” at a school in Kabul on May 1, causing an outbreak of screaming, stomach aches and vomiting.

“From now on, if I find anyone saying ‘I’m poisoned’ and the poisoning is not proved by the hospital, I will punish the student,” Education Minister Ghulam Farooq Wardak told a press conference on Tuesday.

“I will punish the teacher, I will punish the head teacher and I will punish the school director,” he added.

The education department said the government was determined to crack down on the causes of outbreaks of psychological illnesses among young girls.

“When one student faints, it spreads around and everyone might think it’s poisoning,” Mohammad Kabir Haqmal, spokesman for the ministry, told AFP.

“If tests prove it is mass hysteria or any other natural cause, of course no one will be punished. What the minister said was that we will pursue those who disrupt the classes.”

Wazhma Frouqh, a female education activist, criticised the minister’s stance and said that previous cases of “poisonings” had dissuaded families from sending their daughters to school.

“The minister should not have said that he will punish schoolgirls,” she told AFP. “His job is to find out what has happened and protect schools.”

Girls were banned from going to school under the Taliban, but numbers have risen since the extremist regime was ousted in 2001 and the government says 40 percent of pupils are now female.

Source: The Daily Star

Victim was identified as Asad Ali (Mamai) s/o Salman Ali.

Source: hazara.net

Almaty Ministerial Conference of the Istanbul Process on Afghanistan

On April 26, Kazakhstan hosted the 3rd Ministerial Conference of the Istanbul Process on Afghanistan. More than 50 delegations led by the foreign ministers of the participating states and others, gathered in Almaty for the Conference. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev inaugurated the event. It was co-chaired by Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Erlan Idrissov and Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister Zalmai Rassoul. The group endorsed six implementation plans of confidence building measures to consolidate the regional countries’ efforts to promote trust, security and result-oriented cooperation on Afghanistan and reaffirmed its commitment to expand colloboration based on the principles of friendship, respect and mutual benefit.

In his welcoming remarks, President Nazarbayev highlighted the importance of regional cooperation and outlined Kazakhstan’s contribution and consistent role in the international community’s plans on Afghanistan. He noted that Kazakhstan had been providing political, economic and humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan starting in the 1990s.

The participants adopted a declaration of continued support of Afghanistan, reconfirming their resolve to build greater confidence, trust and cooperation within the region. The participants highlighted the importance of demonstrating their solidarity through ongoing commitment to assist Afghan nation in its process of transition and at the time of withdrawal of the International Security Assistance Forces from Afghanistan. They adopted specific action plans for each of the six packages of the confidence-building measures of the Istanbul Process.

The event has allowed countries in the region to harmonize their approaches toward Afghanistan and to identify concrete measures of cooperation in the fields of education, economic development, anti- terrorism, anti-drug trafficking, and relief from natural disasters. The participants recognized their shared responsibility and common interest to work together for the sake of stable and prosperous Afghanistan and the entire region. They emphasized the convergence of interests in “The Heart of Asia” region and their willingness to work closely with international and regional organizations such as the UN, SCO, CICA, OSCE, CSTO and ECO, since it is essential for the success of shared effort.

Several side events took place during the Almaty Conference. These included a presentation by the mayor of Almaty, Akhmetzhan Yessimov, about the opportunity to turn the city into a regional hub of multilateral diplomacy. An expert level seminar of the relevant agencies discussed Kazakhstan’s potential as a transit and transport corridor.

On the sidelines of the Almaty Conference, President Nazarbayev met with the heads of several delegations, including Deputy Secretary of State William Burns. In addition, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Erlan Idrissov, held a series of bilateral meetings that covered issues of bilateral and multilateral concern.

In accordance with the adopted Declaration, the next Conference of the foreign ministers of the Istanbul Process on Afghanistan will be held in China in 2014.

Alizafar rahimy
Medical student in Almaty Kazakhstan

Ibrar Hussain Rajabi Source: Supplied

FAMILIES of three teenagers who boarded an asylum boat in Indonesia for a better life in Australia – but who are feared lost at sea – are still hopeful their boys will be found alive.

At 11pm on Thursday the three Hazara teens boarded a boat carrying 72 asylum seekers. Within hours the vessel had sunk. Only 14 survivors were plucked from the dangerous waters near the Sunda Strait south of Indonesia.

Ibrar Hussain Rajabi, 17, had lost his father and brother when they were murdered, and it was his mother who wanted her son to escape to a better place.

Ibrar’s family friend Hassan Rezai said from his home in North Carolina in the US the teenager had lost his father to the Taliban and his brother was murdered on the Iranian border 18 months ago.

Mahdi Fadayee

The pair had spoken online early last week, he said.

“He was excited, he was happy. He was telling me ‘If I reach Australia my future will be bright, I will save my family’,” Mr Rezai said.

His distraught mother had wanted him to have a new life in Australia, Mr Rezai said.

Rehmatullah Muhammad Jan

Mahdi Fidayee, 16, left his accommodation in Indonesia on Wednesday and called his family on Thursday night to tell them he was “now on the sea” and headed to Australia.

His cousin in Perth, Ali Mohammad Fidayee, said the next call his family received was from a friend who said “14 passengers, mostly friends, were rescued by fisherman but Mahdi was not one of them”.

Mr Fidayee, who said he was “disappointed” by Indonesia’s limited efforts to find the stricken vessel, said his cousin had wanted a life of “freedom” in Australia.

Rehmatullah Muhammad Jan, a Hazara whose family is in Quetta, Pakistan, told relative Mehdi Fabre he was excited about reaching Australia.

“He was in search of freedom. He was in search of peace. He was in search of a better life,” Mr Fabre said.

The teenager, who has two sisters and a brother, last spoke to family on Wednesday morning and had spent almost three weeks in Indonesia waiting for a vessel.

The relatives and friends of the teenagers said they had been disappointed by Indonesia’s search efforts. There have been reports a second vessel may have capsized last Wednesday, also close to Indonesia.

Source: http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (L) and Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi deliver remarks at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing April 13, 2013. REUTERS/Paul J. Richards/Pool

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met China’s top leaders in a bid to persuade them to push reclusive North Korea, whose main diplomatic supporter is Beijing, to scale back its belligerence and, eventually, return to nuclear talks.

Visiting Beijing for the first time as secretary of state, Kerry has made no secret of his desire to see China take a more active stance towards North Korea, which in recent weeks has threatened nuclear war against the United States and South Korea.

Kerry and China’s top diplomat, State Councillor Yang Jiechi, said both countries supported the goal of denuclearizing the Korean peninsula.

“We are able, the United States and China, to underscore our joint commitment to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula in a peaceful manner,” Kerry told reporters, sitting next to Yang at a state guesthouse in western Beijing.

But North Korea has repeatedly said it will not abandon nuclear weapons which it described on Friday as its “treasured” guarantor of security.

Yang said China’s stance on maintaining peace and stability on the peninsula was clear and consistent, repeating phrasing used by the Foreign Ministry since the crisis began.

“We maintain that the issue should be handled and resolved peacefully through dialogue and consultation. To properly address the Korea nuclear issue serves the common interests of all parties. It is also the shared responsibility of all parties,” he said, speaking through an interpreter.

“China will work with other relevant parties, including the United States, to play a constructive role in promoting the six-party talks and balanced implementation of the goals set out in the September 19 joint statement of 2005.”

The United States and its allies believe the North violated the 2005 aid-for-denuclearization deal by conducting a nuclear test in 2006 and pursuing a uranium enrichment programme that would give it a second path to a nuclear weapon in addition to its plutonium-based programme.

Six-party aid-for-disarmament talks, involving the two Koreas, the United States, Japan, Russia and host China, collapsed in 2008 when the North walked away from the deal.

Kerry declined to comment on what specifically China may do to push for a peaceful solution on North Korea, saying only that they had discussed all possibilities.

At a news conference in Seoul on Friday and in a U.S.-South Korean joint statement issued on Saturday, Kerry signalled the U.S. preference for diplomacy, but stressed North Korea must take “meaningful” steps on denuclearization.

“We don’t want to get into a threat for threat or … some kind of confrontational language here. There’s been enough of that,” Kerry said in Beijing.

If North Korea got rid of its nuclear capabilities, then the United States would have no reason to maintain recently deployed defensive capabilities – such as a missile defence system sent to Guam – he said.

“Now, obviously, if the threat disappears, i.e. North Korea denuclearizes, the same imperative does not exist at that point in time for us to have to have that kind of robust, forward leaning posture of defence.”

The Pentagon has in recent weeks responded to the North Korean threats by announcing plans to position two Aegis guided-missile destroyers in the western Pacific and a Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missile defence system to Guam.

‘CONSTRUCTIVE’ TALKS

As the North’s main trading partner, financial backer and the closest thing it has to a diplomatic ally, China had a unique ability to use its leverage against the impoverished, isolated state, Kerry said in Seoul before leaving for Beijing.

China, which sided with North Korea in the 1950-53 civil war against the U.S.-backed South, has always been reluctant to apply pressure on Pyongyang, fearing instability if the North were to implode and send floods of refugees into China.

It has also looked askance at U.S. military drills in South Korea.

China’s Xinhua news agency said in a commentary that Washington had itself been “fanning the flames” on the Korean peninsula with its shows of force.

“It keeps sending more fighters, bombers and missile-defence ships to the waters of East Asia and carrying out massive military drills with Asian allies in a dramatic display of pre-emptive power,” it said.

Chinese state television quoted Premier Li Keqiang as telling Kerry that rising tensions on the Korean peninsula were in nobody’s interests, in apparent reference to both Washington and Pyongyang to dial down the war of words.

“All sides must bear responsibility for maintaining regional peace and stability and be responsible for the consequences,” the television report paraphrased Li as saying.

“Disturbances and provocation on the peninsula and regionally will harm the interests of all sides, which is like lifting a rock only to drop it on one’s feet.”

Still, U.S. officials believe China’s rhetoric on North Korea has begun to shift, pointing to a recent speech by China’s Xi in which – without referring explicitly to Pyongyang – he said no country “should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for selfish gain”.

Kerry’s Asia trip, which includes a stop in Tokyo on Sunday before flying home on Monday, takes place after weeks of shrill North Korean threats of war since the imposition of new U.N. sanctions in response to its third nuclear test in February.

North Korean television made no mention of Kerry’s visit and devoted most of its reports to preparations for celebrations on Monday marking the birth date of state founder Kim Il-Sung.

But Rodong Sinmun, the ruling Workers’ Party’s newspaper, issued a fresh denunciation of joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises, saying: “If the enemies dare provoke (North Korea) while going reckless, it will immediately blow them up with an annihilating strike with the use of powerful nuclear means.”

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency, quoting a government source, said North Korea had not moved any of its mobile missile launchers for the past two days after media reports that as many as five missiles had been moved into place on the country’s east coast. It said this suggested no launches were imminent.

(Additional reporting by Terril Yue Jones in BEIJING and Ronald Popeski in SEOUL; Editing by Nick Macfie and Vicki Allen)

Ghazni Declared as Capital of Islamic Civilisation.

The week-long celebrations began at 10:20am at the governor’s office with recitation of some verses from the holy Quran, followed by playing the national anthem and reading out a message from President Hamid Karzai.

More than 2,000 people including Vice President Karim Khalili, foreign ministers of several Islamic and neighbouring countries as well as foreign diplomats and parliamentarians attended the opening ceremony amid tight security.

Ending April 19, the festival comes nearly five years after Ghazni City was selected to serve as the Asian Capital of Islamic Civilisation at a conference held in Tripoli, Libya in 2007 by the Islamic Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (IESCO).

Ghazni, some 125 km south of Kabul, is home to minarets, shrines, old castles and forts and architecture dating back to Sultan Mahmud dynasty (975-1187 AD) and has been regarded as one of the cradles of Islamic civilisation.

Representatives from different countries and senior Afghan officials attended the ceremony. They included cabinet ministers, deputy ministers, senior advisor to President Karzai Naimatullah Shehrani, members of parliament, ambassadors of some foreign countries and provincial officials.

Tribal elders and people of Ghazni were also in attendance, said the governor’s spokesman, Fazal Sabawoon.

Shehrani read out Karzai’s message that congratulated Ghazni people and all Afghans on marking the event that he called a pride for them.

Karzai said Afghans proud of Ghazni for being a valuable historical region where historical objects and sites needed to protected and preserved for coming generations as one of their prime personalities.

Speaking at the launch of the ceremony, Governor Musa Khan Akbarzada said they had waited for years to see Ghazni serving as the capital of Islamic Civilisation. “Today our dream has become a reality with the launch of this historic ceremony,” he remarked.

The governor asked the central government to promote Ghazni into as grade A province and made an appeal to the insurgents to shun violence and join peace process. He asked Muslim countries to mediate between the government and its armed opposition groups to end the aimless war in Afghanistan.

Security officials said a number of check posts have been established at entrances to the city in order to provide security for visitors.

Seen as a last chance for restoration of the crumbling ancient sites, the celebration came after reconstruction on some historical monuments was almost completed, with others still in different stages of completion.

The government has announced spending 200 million dollars to renovate sites and develop infrastructure in Ghazni. The projects include an airport and museum, roads, hotels, industrial parks and renovation of historical monuments.

But lawmakers and local residents have complained many projects could not be completed due to a slow-paced work blamed on encroachment by developers and unregulated heavy traffic around many sites.

The ceremony is celebrated, thanks to Mahmud of Ghazni (971 -1030), the most prominent ruler of the Ghaznavid dynasty who brought together Islam, the Persian language and the Turkish art of war in an empire that once stretched from today’s Iran to India.

Mahmud turned the city into a thriving capital by inviting artists, writers and scholars from all over Central Asia to the court. (Pajhwok)