WalesOnline - 0725 to Paddington

All change

2010-12-23T11:09:25Z

This is my final blog post - and no, it's not my contribution to the great debate over whether Twitter has replaced blogging as the saviour of news communication.

After five-and-a-bit years as the Western Mail's Political Editor, I'm moving on to a new job with a well-known broadcasting organisation.

I've enjoyed writing the blog, and those in the know tell me it's the most read in the Media Wales roster, so I hope that means you've enjoyed reading it too.

As Tony Blair once told John Major, there's nothing left for me to do now except go, so I wish all readers a peaceful Christmas and a happy new year.

Swansea jobs privatisiert werden

2010-12-13T15:47:14Z

The Department for Transport is to privatise its Shared Services Centre (SSC) in Swansea, it announced this afternoon - insisting there is no threat to the 275 jobs based there.

The SSC provides payroll, HR and other so-called 'back office' services to all the Department's agencies, including the DVLA, the Driving Standards Agency and VOSA, the Vehicle and Operator Services Agency.

Privatisation isn't a huge surprise given the pressure on Ministers to find savings in their budgets; the DfT is suggesting today that other Whitehall departments could use the privatised centre in future to cut their own costs - which would mean more jobs in Swansea.

It's not the first time the SSC has been in the news, of course. In 2008 the Commons Public Accounts Committee published a blistering assessment of the SSC's early years, concluding that instead of saving £57m a year as had been intended, the project ended up costing £81m.

The problems were legion, but most arose from IT decisions and the pressures of an unrealistic set-up timetable. So bad did things get that staff computers frequently sent them messages in German.

During the Committee's inquiry, MPs called Robert Devereux, the permanent secretary at the DfT, to answer questions on the project

Edward Leigh, the then-Chairman of the Committee, asked the obvious question: "It is enough to make you weep, is it not?"

Mr Devereux replied: "Yes, it is."

Yes and no

2010-12-08T10:15:33Z

It may have been the only party to have a commitment to holding a referendum on the voting system in its 2010 manifesto, but it's probably fair to say that Labour is far from enthusiastic now that the poll is getting closer.

A spanner thrown into the works by the House of Lords notwithstanding, the country is scheduled to vote in May on whether to adopt the Alternative Vote for Westminster elections.

Labour put the pledge in their manifesto largely as a useful bargaining chip should the need arise for a post-election deal with the pro-reform Lib Dems. In the end the Lib Dems entered a coalition with the Conservatives, who were happy (ish) to offer a referendum as long as their MPs could vote 'no'.

Labour's problem is that while the other parties are united - Lib Dems want a yes vote as a stepping stone to more radical changes, while the Tories are staunchly against* - it is deeply split.

There are several big-hitters, including Lord Prescott, campaigning on the 'no' side, and affection for first-past-the-post runs deep in the PLP. There's also the possibility that a 'no' vote could destabilise the coalition, an added bonus as far as many Labour MPs are concerned.

One MP with a valleys seat told me last week his strategy was simple come May - "The message on the doorstep is: vote Labour in the Assembly elections, and vote no against the Tories".

However, a number of senior Labour figures are also convinced of the case for AV, and plan to vote 'yes' in May. They include Peter Hain, a long-standing advocate of reform, as well as Welsh MPs Chris Bryant, Kevin Brennan and Susan Elan Jones. The shadow Chancellor, Alan Johnson, is also in favour, as is the shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Douglas Alexander.

Labour will point to precedent - the Common market referendum of 1975 - where the party split on a single issue without (much) ill-effect. I expect David Cameron will ignore than and seize on this as another example of the opposition not knowing where it stands.

*Cardiff North MP Jonathan Evans is one of the few Conservative MPs in favour of changing the voting system.

Taxing questions

2010-12-03T10:02:29Z

Council tax has never been popular; its only saving grace is that it counts as an improvement on its predecessor, the community charge - better known as the poll tax.

The tax is based on property value, but those values aren't updated very often. In England the range of tax brackets is still based on the value of properties in 1991.

Sounds unfair? Perhaps, but when the Assembly Government carried out a revaluation in 2005, it caused quite a palaver, with many taxpayers finding their homes had moved into a higher band and they were therefore being asked to pay more.

The whole experience was enough to scare the then-UK government into postponing a similar exercise in England, and the coalition government has also cancelled a revaluation planned for 2015.

This morning the Department for Communities and Local Government has also announced that it is cancelling a legal requirement for Wales to carry out another revaluation by 2015, and handing all future decisions over revaluation to Cardiff Bay.

Good news as more powers head to the Assembly Government? Or a canny move by a Tory Minister to put pressure on a Labour and Plaid devolved administration to rule out a revaluation?

Days of rest

2010-12-02T11:00:40Z

The frequency with which the Conservatives have suggested making St David's Day a bank holiday (and the non-implementation of said promise) is one of the joys of covering Welsh politics. New readers can catch up here.

But in this season of goodwill I bring glad tidings. The week after next a Private Members' Bill is being introduced that would make St David's Day and St George's Day (he's the patron saint of England) a bank holiday from 2012.

Of course the Bill, presented by Stratford-upon-Avon, Nadhim Zahawi, has little chance of becoming law - unless Conservative and Lib Dem Ministers seize the opportunity to get behind it.

*For some reason the link above doesn't work - try here http://tinyurl.com/37vmzs6

Panto at the Grand

2010-12-01T14:05:30Z

The Welsh Grand committee hasn't disappointed so far - and there are still another two hours of debate to go this afternoon.

There was a bit of confusion when Treasury Minister Justine Greening seemed to suggest reform of the Barnett Formula depended on the outcome of the referendum next March; this turned out to be a slip of the tongue - the policy remains a 'Calman-like process' (i.e. yet another inquiry) if the Assembly gets stronger powers.

And there were the usual heckles - the pantomime season has begun in earnest in SW1. Even the mild-mannered Paul Murphy got into the festive spirit by telling Tory whip Brooks Newmark to "go back where you came from".

Perhaps it was my imagination but Tory MPs seemed in feistier mood than usual, with several coming to the aid of Cheryl Gillan during her speech, although the Welsh Secretary declined an invitation to criticise yesterday's announcement on higher education from the Assembly Government.

As others have noted, there were even some Ken Dodd jokes from Peter Hain (insert line about fiscal responsibility here).

Mrs Gillan even added to the general goodwill with an announcement that the next Welsh Grand is only three months away, with energy policy the subject to be discussed.

Red letter day

2010-12-01T08:04:24Z

When David Cameron flies back from Zurich this morning he'll find a letter waiting for him from not one but three former Secretaries of State for Wales.

Peter Hain, Paul Murphy and Alun Michael are angry that today's Welsh Grand Committee will begin with a speech by junior Treasury Minister Justine Greening, rather than the thoughts of the current incumbent of Gwydyr House, Cheryl Gillan.

The session is meant to discuss the Spending Review, so Ms Greening's presence isn't that mysterious. And it was Labour, of course, that re-introduced the idea of inviting various Minister to take questions at the Welsh Grand (including ones from the Treasury) when it was in office.

Nevertheless the three senior MPs think this is part of a pattern that has "created an aggregate impression that Wales is again being unfairly treated by a Conservative and Liberal Government with a minority interest in our country".

Doubtless this and other issues - electrification of the Great Western line, cancellation of the St Athan defence project, reform of S4C - will get a full airing at the Welsh Grand.

Labour MPs will also try to force a vote to register their objections to the Spending Review, a vote they'll win due to their in-built majority on the committee.

But I'm told a repeat of the scenes when the committee last met - walk-outs and rows over what Erskine May says about Points of Order - is not part of the plan.

One Wales 2.0

2010-11-24T12:45:44Z

The Assembly elections are still six months away, but those politicians not worrying too much about the impact of the Royal wedding on the result are already pondering who'll be in power in Cardiff Bay after May 5.

While Labour are hoping enough disillusioned Lib Dems will switch sides to give them an overall majority, some sort of coalition administration is probably a safer bet.

Plaid Cymru - still chuffed that Labour MPs backed one of their parliamentary amendments last week - seem more than happy for a reboot of the One Wales agreement signed with Labour in 2007.

The other option, a rainbow deal between Plaid, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems, appears to have already been scuppered by the Tories' insistence on protecting NHS spending.

That promise - being implemented by David Cameron for England - would mean big cuts elsewhere (notably education).

Jonathan Edwards, the Plaid MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, told journalists this morning that a second agreement with Labour was "the most likely outcome" of the election.

He said: "I've been advocating keeping all options open, but the Conservatives have really talked themselves out of any possibility of a deal.

"If that's their red line, nobody can sign up to that....we would never sign up to a deal where we would be cutting education by 24%.

"I don't think they have worked out the implications of what they're promising."

Home from home

2010-11-22T13:03:20Z

"Sorry I'm late - I went to the wrong room. I don't even know my own house".

The Prime Minister was in self-deprecating mood when he arrived to talk to a small group of reporters at Downing Street earlier - you can read his views on the Assembly Government budget and other matters in tomorrow's Western Mail.

Dominating the room was a portrait of Margaret Thatcher that definitely wasn't there when I interviewed Gordon Brown back in March.

The Iron Lady resigned as Prime Minister 20 years ago today, when the young Mr Cameron was working in Conservative Central Office.

One of his responsibilities was to brief whichever Minister was appearing on the BBC's Question Time- which that week just happened to be Michael Heseltine, the man widely expected to benefit from the fall of his arch-enemy Mrs Thatcher.

On his return from the "Heseltine lair", Mr Cameron told us, he was "frisked for information" from the Thatcherite loyalists - particularly keen for any lists of MPs that were lying around.

He little to tell them, but they needn't have worried; Heseltine, of course, was viewed by plenty of Tory MPs as a traitor, and they plumped for John Major instead.

How soon is now?

2010-11-21T11:08:09Z

When Gordon Brown announced the electrification of the London to Swansea rail line in July 2009, he said "work will start immediately".

This was one of many examples of the former PM's habit of squeezing the meaning of sentences until the very words seemed to squeal in pain.

I'm sure there are civil servants at the Department for Transport and engineers at Network Rail who have indeed been assigned to the project, but in no meaningful sense has work really begun.

The scheme has been under review since the General Election, and although the Conservatives say they are committed to the idea in principle, the £1.1bn price tag has the Treasury worried.

A decision is due on Tuesday, with the political stakes now very high; if electrification is cancelled, then the Wales Office will be struggling to argue that it has achieved much in Cheryl Gillan's first six months in post, with the St Athan military training college and the Severn Barrage already cancelled, and rows over funding cuts to S4C and jobs lost at Newport Passport Office.

One option is to electrify the line as far west as Bristol so as to reduce the cost. Some Ministers in London have toyed with the option of asking WAG to pay for electrifying the Welsh part of the line - a bill of some £200m.

Ieuan Wyn Jones is having none of it, hardly surprising given the hammering his Economy and Transport budget is getting as part of next year's WAG spending settlement.

The DfT would, in any case, find itself on rather shaky intellectual ground if it delivered an invoice to Cardiff Bay - the Roads Minister, Mike Penning, argued forcefully the other day that the Severn River Crossings were "British national infrastructure", and WAG could keep its nose out, thanks for asking.

(Mr Penning's evidence to the Welsh Affairs Select Committee can be read here - the relevant quote is near the end).

Either way the delay is nearly over for passengers awaiting news on the future of their rail service. I expect the answer will more definitive than it was last time.

Off the rails

2010-11-09T14:54:29Z

Ben Brogan, the well-connected Deputy Editor of the Daily Telegraph, wonders on his blog this morning which Cabinet Minister will be the first to hand in their resignation.

Keeper of the Lib Dem flame Vince Cable? Quiet man on a mission Iain Duncan Smith? Think again - the politician threatening the Dear David letter is Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan, according to Mr Brogan.

Mrs Gillan is faced with a tricky issue a long way from Offa's Dyke: the proposed High Speed rail link between London and the north of England would run right through her constituency of Chesham and Amersham, and the plan has attracted a good deal of local opposition.

When the Western Mail raised this very issue with Mrs Gillan in September, she said:

There is a very long way to go before final decisions on the viability and affordability of this project reaches a conclusion and I want to ensure that the Secretary of State for Transport understands the strong opposition throughout my constituency to the current proposals.

Mrs Gillan is already a regular visitor to the Transport Secretary's office, of course. A decision is due any day on the £1bn electrification of the Great Western line between London and Swansea, and if that project is dropped (or stops at Bristol, as some suggest) then Labour and Plaid MPs will surely be calling for her to stand aside.

The smart money, however, suggests neither the High Speed line to the north or the slow one to the West will see off Mrs Gillan - Ladbrokes is offering her at 12/1 to be first through the exit door, longer odds than no fewer than seven of her colleagues.

Friends reunited

2010-10-26T14:18:23Z

It seems like only yesterday that Peter Hain and Elfyn Llwyd couldn't find anything nice to say to each other.

In fact is was in 2006 that Mr Hain told the Plaid MP in the Commons: "I do not think anyone takes him seriously anymore", adding to journalists afterwards that it was about time Mr Llwyd "started behaving like an honourable member".

The two had fallen out over an allegation that Mr Hain (then Secretary of State for Wales) had offered a peerage to the late Peter Law to stop the renegade AM from leaving Labour - an allegation strongly denied then and now.

Nowadays relations are calmer, and the two MPs have even written a joint letter to Cheryl Gillan asking for a meeting of the Welsh Grand Committee to discuss a planned cut in the number of Welsh MPs.

"As the two official opposition parties for Wales in Westminster, we are putting aside our party political differences so that together we can urge the Secretary of State to allow proper debate and discussion on this bill for Wales," say Messers Llwyd and Hain.

The Welsh Conservatives are not amused.

"When Peter Hain and Elfyn Llwyd join forces you know it's for nothing more than a spot of political grandstanding", says a spokesman for Mrs Gillan.

He adds that a meeting of the Welsh Grand Committee would only lead to a rehearsing of already well-known arguments, and has no power to change anything.

Auf wiedersehen, butt?

2010-10-21T10:02:21Z

The cancellation this week of the £14bn project to centralise UK defence training leaves a question mark hanging of the future of the chosen site, RAF St Athan in the Vale of Glamorgan.

The base - currently used for maintenance of the air fleet - has had a troubled recent history, and today unions are warning that 240 jobs losses are expected before Christmas.

A review is to take place in the Spring, with Ministers insisting that some form of centralised training facility can still be built there.

But there are other options. There are still more than 23,000 UK troops stationed in Germany, and this week's Strategic Defence Review sketched out plans to bring them home in the next few years. Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan has suggested some of the units could find a new home in south Wales.

Shadow Welsh Secretary Peter Hain, however, isn't letting go of the issue. He told reporters this morning he would like to see the original idea "resurrected", and that there was "no question" that it would have gone ahead had Labour won the election - despite delays to the scheme (first mooted in 2005) while the party were in government.

Mr Hain said: "I'm not saying that everything was perfect and everything was smooth, but I come back to the reality - the Defence Training College was going ahead under Labour, and now it's not, full stop."

Number crunching

2010-10-20T14:32:54Z

Below is a useful league table of the departmental winners and losers from today's Spending Review. The figure show how much each is gaining or losing in real terms (i.e. taking inflation and so on into account) between now and 2014-15.

In this table 'Wales' means the Assembly Government, not total public spending in Wales

International Development 34.2%

Energy and Climate Change 16.2%

Work and Pensions 1.5%

NHS health (in England) 0.3%

Defence -7.3%

Scotland -10.6%

Northern Ireland -10.7%

Education -10.8%

Wales -11.4%

Transport -14.6%

HMRC -16.3%

Culture, Media Sport -21.1%

Home Office -25.2%

Ministry of Justice -25.3%

Foreign Office -26.0%

CLG Local Goverment (in England) -26.8%

BIS -28.5%

DEFRA -30.9%

CLG Communities -67.6%

Missing out?

2010-10-20T08:47:52Z

Ahead of today's Spending Review one big decision has already been taken - the Defence Training Academy at St Athan - a plan first revealed in the Western Mail as long ago as December 2005 - is being scrapped.

The idea was to hand training of the armed forces to a private consortium, Metrix, and house the whole thing in the Vale of Glamorgan. Despite the project being scaled down along the way, it would still have brought some 2,000 jobs to the area (transfers as well as new posts) and an estimated £500m boost to the local economy.

But Ministers have decided the £14bn cost of the contract is too high, and so the blueprint is in the bin. Prime Minister David Cameron insisted yesterday that this was not "the end of the road", with the possibility of some centralised training moving to south Wales at some point. We'll see.

The decision means nothing will happen to reduce the deficit in defence spending in Wales. The table below, provided by the Ministry of Defence, underlines the point - Wales gets £390m a year, while Scotland gets £1.56bn and the east of England gets £2.25bn.

Norfolk is of course home to RAF Marham, which since 2003 has been repairing the RAF's fast jets - work that was supposed to be have done at St Athan, where £101m of public money was spent building a new hangar precisely for that purpose.

2007-08 spending, in £ millions at current prices:

United Kingdom 25,920
England 23,310
Scotland 1,560
Wales 390
Northern Ireland 660

Regions of England:

East 2,250
East Midlands 950
London 1,610
North East 370
North West 2,140
South East 7,110
South West 6,510
West Midlands 1,250
Yorks and Humber 1,130

Notes:1. Figures are rounded to the nearest £10 million.
2. All totals have been calculated using unrounded data.
3. Indirect expenditure, such as subcontracted work, is not reflected in these figures.
4. Personnel costs exclude contributions made by MOD to the Armed Forces Pensions scheme and War Pensions scheme.