WalesOnline - 0725 to Paddington

The Broughton Declaration

2009-11-06T11:48:41Z

I'll examine David Cameron's significant announcement on Welsh devolution policy in more detail in my column in tomorrow's Western Mail, but it's fair to say that by just saying 'no', the Tory leader has helped re-frame the debate on the future of the Assembly.

There are now few real barriers to a referendum on moving Wales towards the Scottish model; the mechanics are these - a vote in the Assembly has to happen first, and that needs a two-thirds majority. The Labour-Plaid governing coalition has such a majority, but do Labour AMs want to go for it now, knowing that Peter Hain and Labour MPs are against?

If the Assembly vote goes ahead, the Secretary of State then has to lay the order in parliament (or not - the famous veto), and MPs need to vote in favour by a simple majority. Mr Cameron announces today, at the Airbus factory in Broughton, that a Tory Government would allow the vote to go ahead.

Plenty of imponderables left - would it be a whipped vote on the Tory side? What would Labour MPs, then in opposition, do? And how will the Tories cope with MPs and AMs campaigning on opposite sides when the referendum is called?

At least Cheryl Gillan will be able to avoid questions about which way she'd vote - as she lives in Buckinghamshire, she, like me and him, won't get to take part.

Elfyn Llwyd - Parliamentary irritant

2009-11-05T13:49:17Z

Plaid Cymru's Westminster leader, Elfyn Llwyd, has a well-known legal background and has long campaigned for more resources to be allocated to the probation service.

The Meirionnydd Nant Conwy MP says probation officers are being asked to do more for less, and yesterday he voiced his objections to £24m in budget cuts in a debate in Westminster Hall.

It was a surprisingly lively affair. The Justice Minister, Maria Eagle, intervened so many times during the Plaid man's speech I thought she might be trying to get into the Guinness Book of Records.

When Ms Eagle came to her own speech at the end of the debate, we had this glorious exchange:

The Minister of State, Ministry of Justice (Maria Eagle): Let me begin by congratulating the hon. Member for Meirionnydd Nant Conwy (Mr. Llwyd) on securing the debate, which I think everyone present has enjoyed. As ever, he put forward his points in a deeply irritating manner that forced me to keep leaping up and down, and I ended up annoying him because he thought that I was being tetchy.

Mr. Llwyd: The Minister's description of me as deeply irritating is probably the best compliment I have had in my political life, so I am grateful to her.

Sir Christopher and perverse incentives

2009-11-04T11:30:50Z

Sir Christopher Kelly's report on MPs' expenses contains few surprises; despite Sir Christopher's objections this morning at the way some of his conclusions had been leaked to the press, the detail has turned out to be largely accurate.

He seems to have got it roughly right - out will go mortgage interest, capital gains, and expenses for gardening, bookcases and the rest will be a thing of the past.

MPs will cough and splutter at some sections, but Sir Christopher has warned them not to "cherry-pick" his proposals. We'll see.

Some of his suggestions will probably lead to perverse incentives. MPs who stand down or lose their seats currently get a pay-off, worth up to £64,000 depending on age and length of service.

Sir Christopher argues that this is not a good use of taxpayers' cash in cases where the MP has simply decided to retire - they do, after all, have a decent pension scheme. The report suggests retaining the pay-out system for MPs who lose their seats, while those who chose to stand down will get eight weeks' pay instead.

All well and good, but the impact will be two-fold - first, there will be a stampede for the door before this General Election (the changes won't be in force by then) in order to secure the full pay-out. Secondly, older MPs will decide to stay on and on when party managers would rather they retired (which may or not be a good thing, according to taste).

A colleague has already spotted a loophole in the ban on capital gains made from second homes. In the same way that some MPs are wondering whether they can indulge in "wife swapping" to get round the ban on employing spouses, why not "flat swapping"? Is there anything to stop two MPs who own flats near each other from renting to each other and continuing to enjoy their capital gains?

We'll see. One objection I've heard from MPs is that forcing them to rent, in central London, will cost more to the taxpayer than the current system of mortgage interest. That may be true, although Sir Christopher's report contains some helpful figures on the rental market for one-bedroom flats (my italics) near Parliament.

The point though is that the Kelly package taken together will be cheaper; renting may push the cost up a bit, but not paying for window cleaning, duck-houses and golden goodbyes will bring it down a lot more.

UPDATE The Kelly recommendation for a commercial agency to oversee renting of properties for new MPs would appear to get around the 'flat-swap' problem. An MP has just described the package as being, in part, "impractical but not unreasonable", which seems about right.

Reefer madness

2009-11-02T11:18:18Z

Amid all the brouhaha surrounding Professor David Nutt's departure from the Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs, it's worth having a read of the lecture that caused the controversy in the first place.

While one might see the political point that you can't have Government advisers campaigning against Government policy, it's difficult to find much to disagree with in Professor Nutt's analysis.

Others may take a different view - read it for yourself here. Intriguingly David Cameron, who in 2002 was a member of the Home Affairs Select Committee when it recommended reclassifying cannabis to class C and Ecstasy to class B, has just told reporters:

I am very clear...that we should not be changing classifications, we should be keeping them where we are, yes, on drugs, but also on alcohol.

On your bike, Tony

2009-10-29T15:27:30Z

Tony Blair's ascension to the position of President of the European Council has just dominated a Brussels press conference held by Gordon Brown and David Miliband.

Mr Brown thinks his old rival would be an "excellent" President, if he wants it when the laborious process of ratifying the Lisbon Treaty finally comes to an end.

Mr Miliband didn't repeat the pro-Blair reasoning he offered on the Andrew Marr show on Sunday, when the Foreign Secretary said: "We need someone who, when he or she lands in Beijing or Washington or Moscow, the traffic does need to stop."

This line of argument hasn't impressed Dai Davies, the independent MP for Blaenau Gwent. Mr Davies has tabled an early-day motion, pointing out that in an age where climate change is meant to be the number one international issue, the last thing we should want is more motorcades.

Mr Davies' motion "calls on Ministers of her Majesty's Government to keep focused on strategies to combat climate change, and to avoid advocacy of unnecessarily extravagant modes of official transport while carrying out their official responsibilities".

What's occurring, Peter?

2009-10-29T10:56:49Z

Peter Hain defending a devolution settlement that he himself devised might not strike most readers as particularly noteworthy.

In a speech in Cardiff tonight, the Welsh Secretary will say that Legislative Competence Orders (LCO), plus fill-in-the-gaps clauses for Wales in Westminster bills, are giving the Assembly significant amounts of new law-making clout.

The real problem, Mr Hain says, is that the chattering classes (I guess that includes me, and her, and him and probably him too) won't admit it, and prefer to keep the good news secret.

Well, OK - it's the kind of thing you'd expect the architect of the system to feel a couple of years down the line. But, as Nessa Jenkins would put it, Pete - where to are you going with this?

It is, of course, all about the context. With Sir Emyr Jones Parry's Convention likely to report next month that the Welsh public are quite keen on a referendum on a Scottish-style parliament, there aren't many barriers in the way of an era-defining plebiscite. A referendum is, after all, meant to be held by 2011 as part of the Labour-Plaid coalition deal in Cardiff Bay.

Mr Hain's passionate advocacy of the LCO system isn't just the doting of a proud father - it's his way of saying we don't need a referendum.

The political manoeuvrings are starting to get complicated. What if the Conservatives in Cardiff Bay table a motion, post-Sir Emyr, calling for a referendum - and David Cameron indicates he, as Prime Minister, would allow smooth passage for the referendum order through parliament?

Would we then see pro-devolution Labour MPs like Mr Hain arguing against a referendum because they fear it could be lost, while the traditionally devo-sceptic Conservatives argue for a poll because they want to win it and be seen to be pulling the strings?

And splits in the two largest parties would soon become apparent - Mr Hain knows the majority of Welsh Labour MPs are less keen on more powers for the Assembly than he is, and view a referendum as a distraction. The Conservatives are rubbing their hands in anticipation of a block of eight to 10 Welsh MPs after the next election - are they going to hand powers to their counterparts in Cardiff Bay without a murmur?

Pressure will also be on Plaid Cymru after Sir Emyr delivers his report - they will have to deliver a referendum, or their supporters will demand withdrawal from the coalition.

In that context, Mr Hain's Cardiff speech might get a few (very private) murmurs of approval from some surprising quarters.

More bad news for Welsh Labour

2009-10-27T10:16:54Z

Today's YouGov poll of voting intentions picks up where the European election results left off - bad, bad news for Labour with the Conservatives and, to a lesser extent, Plaid Cymru being the beneficiaries.

The results put Labour on 34%, the Conservatives on 31%, Plaid Cymru on 15% and the Liberal Democrats on 12%. Perhaps worryingly in the light of recent events, 'others' are on 7%; one hopes that's Dai Davies, UKIP and the Greens rather than the BNP.

Translated into Westminster seats, the results would give Labour 20 seats - nine fewer than it has now and only half the total - the Conservatives 12, Plaid five and the Lib Dems just two.

Of course, there are flaws in that calculation - it is based on a uniform swing across Wales, something that takes no account of local issues, the incumbency factor or how bad the constituency MP's expenses were.

Nevertheless, this is more bad news for Welsh Labour, a party that has had more wake-up calls than a travelling salesman. One of the political stories of the decade is Welsh Labour's failure to adapt to the new multi-party politics, and the social changes (patchy prosperity, in-migration) that underpin it.

Faced with voters uninterested in the party's past glories and alert to its lack of a narrative about how 21st century Wales should look, Labour is facing meltdown if it doesn't pull its collective finger out.

The party sometimes behaves as if the public will eventually come to their senses and return to the fold - something that shows little sign of happening. Labour needs to accept it won't win massive majorities in Wales anymore, and accept it needs to compete for votes, rather than just wait for them to roll in; sounds obvious, but the party doesn't often give the impression that it's grasped that.

The current leadership contest should be a way of airing these failings and proposing some solutions. Bashing your rivals is a necessary evil in such campaigns, but perhaps the YouGov poll will help concentrate the minds a little.

Lembit who?

2009-10-26T15:41:24Z

Even the most obsessive of political anoraks would struggle to name all 645* MPs; plenty are so anonymous that you wonder if they're a figment of the voters' collective imagination.

So it's hardly a surprise that the Hansard website, which records everything said in parliament, has accidently left out one MP from its useful 'search by member' facility.

But you'd think the name "Lembit Opik" would ring a few bells with the Hansard team - don't they read the Daily Sport?

The Montgomeryshire MP says: "I'm both appalled and amazed by this and will bring it to the attention of the House authorities. I would look to raise it in the Commons as a point of order but presumably that will be pretty difficult if I don't exist."

*There are 646 seats in total but Glasgow North East is vacant - by-election next month.

Singing from the same hymn-sheet

2009-10-26T10:18:22Z

Cheryl Gillan, the shadow secretary of state for Wales, isn't the most high-profile member of David Cameron's front-bench team, so she would doubtless have been delighted to feature in a Mail on Sunday piece yesterday highlighting the growing influence of women in the party.

Identifying her as one of 'Cameron's Cuties', the paper helpfully adds that Ms Gillan "sings and keeps chickens", although it's not clear whether she does both at the same time.

The paper's list of 80 key female MPs and candidates also includes Antoinette Sandbach, who's hoping to take Delyn from Home Office Minister David Hanson, and Suzy Davies, challenging Lib Dem Roger Williams in Brecon and Radnorshire.

Ms Davies can 'say 'all-women shortlist' in Welsh', the Mail on Sunday adds, which may be useful if Mr Cameron's latest wheeze gets off the ground.

It may be just as well that 'referendum' is much easier to pronounce in the language of heaven. The BBC's Betsan Powys suggests the Conservatives have decided to drop any lingering opposition to a poll on the Assembly's powers - Mr Cameron will make this clear next month, she suggests.

Welsh Conservative MPs won't be too impressed, I'll warrant. It's just as well Ms Gillan has plenty of experience dealing with ruffled feathers.

How times change

2009-10-23T14:10:16Z

August 28 2008

Chancellor Alistair Darling's remark that the recession is the worst Britain has seen for 60 years causes consternation for Number 10, which had been insisting on a less dramatic tone when answering questions on the downturn.

The remarks derail Gordon Brown's autumn fightback, intended to start 48 hours later. Weeks of press speculation follow implying Mr Brown is about to fire the man next door.

October 23 2009

Mr Brown's official spokesman tells journalists: "This has clearly been a major global financial crisis and the most difficult recession in 60 years".

Nick Griffin flounders on Question Time

2009-10-22T21:43:21Z

Supporters of the BBC's decision to allow Nick Griffin to appear on Question Time will be pleased that the BNP leader came out of tonight's show very badly indeed.

Despite his attempted soundbite - "I am not a Nazi" - he looked flustered and uncomfortable, and had no answer to the key questions. He was given several opportunities to set the record straight and say that he agreed 6m Jews died in the Holocaust, and failed to take them.

In place of any facts - he claimed to have been constantly misquoted, but failed to provide any examples - there was the predictable nonsense about the BBC being "ultra-leftist" and that some mythical EU law prevents him from saying what he really thinks.

Whatever one thinks of the BBC's stance - its line is that as a legal party with two MEPs, it is duty bound to treat the BNP impartially - there are a couple of general points worth making.

Some of the news coverage of the show has been far too hysterical; watching some TV reporting (including on the BBC) one could be forgiven for thinking that the BNP had never appeared on television before, or for feeling that the sole barometer of the political weather is who the BBC invites to take part in its panel shows.

And it's worth reminding ourselves that, contrary to some of the headlines we've seen over the past 24 hours, the BNP does not enjoy huge levels of public support.

It may have won two seats in June's Euro elections, but that was due, in large measure, to the PR system: its share of the vote was 6.2% (5.4%) in Wales, and its total number of votes was actually lower than in 2004.

In the 2005 General Election the party received 0.7% of the total vote, and an average of 4.3% in the seats they contested. I'm not saying they aren't a threat, or that they shouldn't be combated, but that's the electoral context.

In a previous incarnation I wrote an MA thesis on the British Union of Fascists' attempts to appear as a respectable middle-class party in the 1930s, particularly through the way it deployed its female activists (there were fascist jumble sales, and women were encouraged to start the anti-Semitic chanting at BUF marches).

Ever since the dream of the BUF's successors has been respectability. Appearing on the BBC may be a step in that direction in Nick Griffin's mind, but his preformance tonight highlights the fact that he is Oswald Mosley's heir in other ways too - racist, surrounded by thugs and thoroughly paranoid.

Greed is tidy

2009-10-21T10:10:47Z

LORD Griffiths of Fforestfach isn't a man afraid of saying what he thinks - I suppose that's what running Margaret Thatcher's policy unit does for you.

Back in 2004 I went to an Institute of Welsh Affairs seminar in Cardiff where Lord Griffiths made a cogent (and then unfashionable) Conservative case for greater devolution.

So I wasn't particularly surprised to read this morning that Lord G is swimming against the tide once more, this time on bank bonuses.

At a public meeting last night he got all Gordon Gekko when the subject of mega-payouts for bankers was raised. The British public should "tolerate the inequality as a way to achieve greater prosperity for all", he suggested.

It doesn't exactly chime with the "we're all in this together" line being pushed by David Cameron and George Osborne, but perhaps we can forgive Lord Griffiths his alternative perspective. He is, after all, vice-chairman of Goldman Sachs.

David Cameron and the ghost of Blaenau Gwent

2009-10-20T15:06:04Z

David Cameron unveiled what newspaper editors used to call a toast-dropper when he gave evidence to the Speaker's conference on parliamentary representation early this morning.

Conceding that his party's record on getting women elected to parliament was poor, the Tory leader suggested he would consider imposing all-women shortlists on local associations in order to redress the balance.

Blimey. Tory bloggers left the toast where it fell and rushed to their laptops - there's a useful summary of the response from the Guardian's Andrew Sparrow here.

The bloggers feel an all-women shortlist is an "un-Conservative" idea. No-one has mentioned Blaenau Gwent yet, but the Tories might want to study the anatomy of that particular Labour own-goal.

There were a couple of important caveats in Mr Cameron's statement. One is that only Conservative Associations without a candidate by January will be liable to have an all-women shortlist imposed on them.

That rules out most winnable seats at a stroke. In Wales the Tories have selected 25 of their 40 candidates, with only the forget-it berths like Merthyr Tydfil and Llanelli (and Blaenau Gwent) to fill.

A twist in the tale could be provided by the expenses scandal, although admittedly this isn't likely in Wales.

Nevertheless there may well be some MPs in the English shires who decide, over the coming weeks, that it's no longer worth the candle. Their constituency associations may not be delighted to receive a letter in the New Year advising them that their new candidate must be a woman.

The one they didn't want?

2009-10-19T09:39:06Z

My colleague Martin Shipton has a good story this morning on the Communication Workers' Union unorthodox procedure for deciding who to support in the Welsh Labour leadership election.

Unions members hold a third of the vote in the electoral college that decides the outcome; members can of course vote whichever way they like, but the endorsement of the union executive is still highly prized and carries plenty of clout with the rank-and-file.

The largest union, Unite, has come out in favour of Edwina Hart, as has the CWU. Unison, the next-biggest after Unite, is supporting Carwyn Jones.

But the real is whether the candidates really wanted the CWU's endorsement at all.

The union is about to embark on a hugely unpopular and potentially suicidal national postal strike. Few (any?) Labour politicians are on the side of the union, and the Labour Government is fiercely critical of the walk-out, calculating that voters won't be impressed with the disruption either.

The union, for its part, desperately needs some political friends (whatever it may claim to the contrary) to help it make its case at the highest levels.

If you were an aspiring political leader, would you really want to be seen as a bosom buddy of the CWU, who in 48 hours' time will be all over the evening news bulletins cast as public enemy number one?

The question that surely follows from the CWU's endorsement of Edwina is this - does she endorse the CWU's strike?

Clarity - a political end in itself

2009-10-17T13:37:29Z

The following appears as my weekly column in this morning's Western Mail.

EVEN its architects wouldn't claim the modern Welsh constitution is a model of clarity - while the Senedd building in Cardiff Bay, with its glass walls and stroll-in culture, is a beacon of transparency, the actual workings of the devolution system are murkier than week-old dishwater.

Take this week's meeting of the Welsh Grand Committee in Westminster. In many ways one of the institution's better outings, there were some useful exchanges on the subject under discussion, the Welsh Language.

But the nub of the argument was buried under a mound of constitutional jargon of LCOs, orders, draft measures and concurrent scrutiny. All to decide whether a new law should be drawn up in London or in Cardiff.

One of the arguments for moving away from the Welsh model of devolution towards the Scottish system is the simplicity it offers.

The Scottish Parliament has its own, no-strings attached legislative powers and it's very clear who does what. Some things are retained at Westminster - like defence, social security, foreign policy - while everything else is presumed devolved.

In Wales some things are devolved but many aren't, while others are half-devolved. Why is education devolved but teachers' pay is not? Why are the Fire Service and Ambulance Service accountable to the Assembly Government while the police are controlled from London?

A symptom of this constitutional muddle is increasing confusion in Whitehall. Many London-based civil servants seem to think the Assembly has many more powers than it actually does, assuming subjects are devolved - and thus someone else's problem - when they are anything but.

This is not a dry constitutional point. Look at the £113m wasted on an aircraft hangar at St Athan because the MoD and Assembly Government pulled in different directions.

Shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan is alive to the problem, promising a Tory government would appoint a Minister in each department to "Welsh-check" every policy to ensure Wales wasn't being wrongly overlooked.

The Welsh Affairs Select Committee has come across countless examples of the problems caused by Wales' worst-of-all-worlds system. Now it's decided to launch a root-and-branch review of Wales' relations with Whitehall, in a bid to straighten things out once and for all.

In an ideal world, the committee would line up each Whitehall permanent secretary and ask them whether various things were devolved to Wales or not. In reality, the general election will probably curtail this inquiry.

When it comes to politics, clarity is a virtue. At a time when the public is increasingly turned off by the democratic process, the murk of LCOs and the complex division of powers hardly helps. A better design is sorely needed.