WalesOnline - 0725 to Paddington

Alfie and the West Lothian question

2009-11-19T14:56:03Z

As a journalist I'm often asked - what do Welsh MPs do all day?

The truth is most just sit around discussing the all-Wales Convention, the Barnett formula and David Cornock's blog, but Ogmore MP Huw Irranca-Davies is an exception.

As an envrionment Minister, Mr Irranca-Davies' time is taken up with Aphalara itadori, or Alfie as he's taken to calling him. That's him in the picture above.

DEFRA scientists have been trying for years to find a way of controlling the spread of Himalayan Balsam, a plant intent on taking over the British countryside and succeeding where Japanese knotweed failed.

Alfie may be the answer - he apparently has a sweet tooth for the Himalayan Balsam, but not for anything else. When the asylum application arrives - for Alfie is no native species either - it'll land on Mr Irranca-Davies' desk.

Whether Wales will get a Barnett consequential when Alfie arrives is a key question that remains, sadly, unanswered.

Yeah but no but yeah

2009-11-18T12:54:11Z

The All-Wales Convention's report has finally been published, and, as widely predicted, it suggests a law-making Parliament resembling that in Scotland is a model Wales should copy.

Sir Emyr Jones Parry concluded that a Welsh Parliament would produce
greater efficiency, permit a strategic approach to the drafting of the legislation, provide greater clarity, be more consistent with the rule of law and democratic tradition, and reflect the emerging maturity of the National Assembly for Wales.

He socks it to the current system, which he correctly says is little understood by the public.

The next step is a referendum on turning the Assembly into a Parliament, something Sir Emyr says should go ahead - although he offers no guarantees of a 'yes' vote. The Convention's own opinion poll suggests a 47%-37% majority in favour, which is roughly in line with other polling.

On timing, Sir Emyr says there's little reason not to hold poll by May 2011 - the date specified in the Plaid-Labour coalition deal.

The battle to control the post-Convention political agenda starts now. Welsh Secretary Peter Hain, no fan of an early referendum, is - most unusually - not doing media interviews today, despite it being the day of the Queen's Speech. He'll give his opinions in a speech to AMs next week, although we already know that he thinks going gung-ho for a referendum will end in tears.

And the pressure is on whoever takes over from Rhodri Morgan as First Minister - just 12 days to go before we know the winner. Will they bow to pressure from Westminster and stall on a referendum (until the General Election is out of the way, at least)? And could they do that without prompting Plaid Cymru to walk out of the coalition?

An intriguing press release from Welsh Labour says the report's recommendation will

All receive the full attention of Welsh Labour and all our affiliated organisations

Those last five words are significant, implying as they do that trade unions will have a say on whether Labour backs a referendum. That suggests another special conference is on its way, despite the fact Labour held one in 2007 to endorse the coalition deal with Plaid that had the referendum pledge in big gold letters on page one.

Once upon a time...

2009-11-17T13:58:49Z

One of the paradoxes of the devolution story so far is that the party which won most seats at Westminster and Assembly level in every election since 1997 has been unable to keep control of either the overall narrative or the chapter headings.

Welsh devolution has been a tale of incremental progress; a narrowly-won referendum saw the Assembly set up in 1999, but the whole settlement was re-examined - and significant changes recommended - by the Richard report only a few years later.

The second fulsome re-examination within a decade, the All-Wales Convention, reports tomorrow, and most expect it to conclude that a prompt referendum on a Welsh Parliament is both desirable and winnable.

This bit-by-bit strategy most closely resembles that of Plaid Cymru, not that of Welsh Labour, the biggest political player throughout the 1990s and 2000s. It's worth remembering that Labour were prodded into commissioning the Richard Commission as a result of the 2000-03 coalition with the Liberal Democrats, and into the All-Wales Convention thanks to the governing current deal with Plaid.

Devolution was meant to be a unionist project, but - thanks largely to divisions and uncertainty within Labour - it has been taken over by nationalists (Plaid Cymru) and constitutionalists (the Liberal Democrats, parts of the media and some Welsh Conservatives).

Labour's failure to turn its consistent leads in the popular vote (I'm leaving this year's Euro elections out of it for now) into complete dominance of the devolution project will be one for the historians to chew over. The party's inability to come to a unified view on what the point of the whole exercise is, or should be, provides most of the answers.

Over at WalesHome, Adam Higgitt takes a similar line of thinking in a new direction by arguing that Labour 'no' voters should actually vote 'yes', to regain control of the process and thus leave Plaid as nothing but the party of independence - and by extension less popular.

Meanwhile Betsan Powys reports on mounting excitement in Cardiff Bay, and rightly points to Peter Hain's speech to AMs next week as a key moment in the post-Convention skirmishes.

Fire and Grimstone

2009-11-16T14:14:59Z

As the future of Royal Mail slides off the news agenda - for now - it's worth pondering what might happen to another institution in line for part-privatisation: the Royal Mint.

The Mint is based at Llantrisant and employs some 750 people on permanent contracts, plus around 100 casual staff. The workforce is set to increase after the Mint won a bid to produce 2012 Olympic commemorative coins - all good news for the jobs market in south Wales.

Nevertheless, the Mint has a habit of appearing on lists of things the Government would like to sell off, particularly at a time when the Treasury is drowning in debt and desperately needs an injection of funds. Other old favourites like the Dartford Crossing and the QEII conference centre in London will have 'for sale' signs outside soon, but the Mint's story is a bit different.

The Treasury has decided to 'vest' the Mint, turning it into a company. The process will be complete by the end of the year, and it's difficult to see why Ministers would want to do such a thing if they weren't hoping to introduce some sort of private capital into the organisation - presumably something along the lines of the postponed plan to give TNT a stake in Royal Mail.

Unions and MPs on the Treasury Select Committee, however, have turned up some intriguing facts about the decision-making process over the Mint. Gerry Grimstone, who advised the Treasury to go ahead with vesting, didn't got to Llantrisant and didn't meet the Mint executives based there.

None of which bodes well. Treasury Ministers insist no decision has been taken on anything beyond vesting, but the trade unions fear a Tory government may not be as coy about its intentions

An under-appreciated Welsh hero

2009-11-13T16:00:22Z

At a time when the future of newspaper journalism feels bleak, the past can seem impossibly exotic and exciting.

Few modern reporters can claim a career as action-packed as that enjoyed by Gareth Jones in the 1930s. Jones, born in Barry, has already worked as an assistant to Lloyd George before embarking on a writing career.

His major achievement was to expose the famine in Soviet-controlled Ukraine, despite the restrictions on movement imposed by the authorities and the incredulity of a pliant crop of rival journalists in Moscow.

Jones, who wrote for the Western Mail amongst others, was murdered in Mongolia in 1935, aged just 29. Today his diaries go on display at Cambridge University - you can read about the story here.

Back in the 21st century I've been experimenting with Twitter, which is at least helping to drive new visitors to the blog. You can follow me @TomosL.

I wonder what Gareth Jones would have made of Twitter if he were alive today. One suspects he would have seized on it with gusto, delighted at another way of getting the truth out from under the noses of those in charge.

Can you spell what it is yet?

2009-11-10T15:02:22Z

Spelling seems to be the theme of this week's news - as if it to confirm the fact, I've just received a 'dairy marker' from the Assembly Government's press office.

Lord Livsey, the former MP for Brecon and Radnorshire, often sees his name spelt incorrectly, although he tells me Gordon Brown got it right in a personal letter sent to him some years ago.

The Livsey family name bore an extra 'e' until the mid-19th century, and the noble Lord's grandfather, the conductor of Cyfarthfa Brass Band, has his portrait hanging in Cyfarthfa Castle to this day to prove it.

The picture was painted by a local artist, one George Frederick Harris. Mr Harris emigrated to Australia in 1920, and I hear his grandson, Rolf, turned out to be a dab hand with the oils himself.

Labouring on

2009-11-09T13:51:40Z

I've just been taking part in Radio Cymru's Wythnos Gwilym Owen discussing the Welsh Labour leadership contest, now in its 94th week.

I don't understand why on earth the process is taking so long. Over the summer I talked to a Labour official who was bemoaning the lack of cash in the party's coffers - a story seemingly confirmed by the Sunday Times this weekend - and the consequent difficulty in arranging and running an election process.

Yet Labour have gone for an eight-week election, long for a General Election let alone an internal party one. The longer it goes on, the more the opportunity for bickering and bridge-burning, the sort of thing Welsh Labour would (you might think) be desperate to avoid.

It's less difficult to see why there is so much focus on the three personalities involved - and it isn't only because they're so different. The One Wales coalition in Cardiff Bay means the policy programme is pretty much set until 2011 (barring something very drastic), and by the time the new leader is in place the WAG budget will be set until (more or less) the next Assembly elections.

In that context there's little to fall back on other than internal matters, a post-2011 programme and the perceived failings of one's rivals. All of which should have been obvious when the decision was taken to run a long election.

The Broughton Declaration

2009-11-06T11:48:41Z

I'll examine David Cameron's significant announcement on Welsh devolution policy in more detail in my column in tomorrow's Western Mail, but it's fair to say that by just saying 'no', the Tory leader has helped re-frame the debate on the future of the Assembly.

There are now few real barriers to a referendum on moving Wales towards the Scottish model; the mechanics are these - a vote in the Assembly has to happen first, and that needs a two-thirds majority. The Labour-Plaid governing coalition has such a majority, but do Labour AMs want to go for it now, knowing that Peter Hain and Labour MPs are against?

If the Assembly vote goes ahead, the Secretary of State then has to lay the order in parliament (or not - the famous veto), and MPs need to vote in favour by a simple majority. Mr Cameron announces today, at the Airbus factory in Broughton, that a Tory Government would allow the vote to go ahead.

Plenty of imponderables left - would it be a whipped vote on the Tory side? What would Labour MPs, then in opposition, do? And how will the Tories cope with MPs and AMs campaigning on opposite sides when the referendum is called?

At least Cheryl Gillan will be able to avoid questions about which way she'd vote - as she lives in Buckinghamshire, she, like me and him, won't get to take part.

Elfyn Llwyd - Parliamentary irritant

2009-11-05T13:49:17Z

Plaid Cymru's Westminster leader, Elfyn Llwyd, has a well-known legal background and has long campaigned for more resources to be allocated to the probation service.

The Meirionnydd Nant Conwy MP says probation officers are being asked to do more for less, and yesterday he voiced his objections to £24m in budget cuts in a debate in Westminster Hall.

It was a surprisingly lively affair. The Justice Minister, Maria Eagle, intervened so many times during the Plaid man's speech I thought she might be trying to get into the Guinness Book of Records.

When Ms Eagle came to her own speech at the end of the debate, we had this glorious exchange:

The Minister of State, Ministry of Justice (Maria Eagle): Let me begin by congratulating the hon. Member for Meirionnydd Nant Conwy (Mr. Llwyd) on securing the debate, which I think everyone present has enjoyed. As ever, he put forward his points in a deeply irritating manner that forced me to keep leaping up and down, and I ended up annoying him because he thought that I was being tetchy.

Mr. Llwyd: The Minister's description of me as deeply irritating is probably the best compliment I have had in my political life, so I am grateful to her.

Sir Christopher and perverse incentives

2009-11-04T11:30:50Z

Sir Christopher Kelly's report on MPs' expenses contains few surprises; despite Sir Christopher's objections this morning at the way some of his conclusions had been leaked to the press, the detail has turned out to be largely accurate.

He seems to have got it roughly right - out will go mortgage interest, capital gains, and expenses for gardening, bookcases and the rest will be a thing of the past.

MPs will cough and splutter at some sections, but Sir Christopher has warned them not to "cherry-pick" his proposals. We'll see.

Some of his suggestions will probably lead to perverse incentives. MPs who stand down or lose their seats currently get a pay-off, worth up to £64,000 depending on age and length of service.

Sir Christopher argues that this is not a good use of taxpayers' cash in cases where the MP has simply decided to retire - they do, after all, have a decent pension scheme. The report suggests retaining the pay-out system for MPs who lose their seats, while those who chose to stand down will get eight weeks' pay instead.

All well and good, but the impact will be two-fold - first, there will be a stampede for the door before this General Election (the changes won't be in force by then) in order to secure the full pay-out. Secondly, older MPs will decide to stay on and on when party managers would rather they retired (which may or not be a good thing, according to taste).

A colleague has already spotted a loophole in the ban on capital gains made from second homes. In the same way that some MPs are wondering whether they can indulge in "wife swapping" to get round the ban on employing spouses, why not "flat swapping"? Is there anything to stop two MPs who own flats near each other from renting to each other and continuing to enjoy their capital gains?

We'll see. One objection I've heard from MPs is that forcing them to rent, in central London, will cost more to the taxpayer than the current system of mortgage interest. That may be true, although Sir Christopher's report contains some helpful figures on the rental market for one-bedroom flats (my italics) near Parliament.

The point though is that the Kelly package taken together will be cheaper; renting may push the cost up a bit, but not paying for window cleaning, duck-houses and golden goodbyes will bring it down a lot more.

UPDATE The Kelly recommendation for a commercial agency to oversee renting of properties for new MPs would appear to get around the 'flat-swap' problem. An MP has just described the package as being, in part, "impractical but not unreasonable", which seems about right.

Reefer madness

2009-11-02T11:18:18Z

Amid all the brouhaha surrounding Professor David Nutt's departure from the Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs, it's worth having a read of the lecture that caused the controversy in the first place.

While one might see the political point that you can't have Government advisers campaigning against Government policy, it's difficult to find much to disagree with in Professor Nutt's analysis.

Others may take a different view - read it for yourself here. Intriguingly David Cameron, who in 2002 was a member of the Home Affairs Select Committee when it recommended reclassifying cannabis to class C and Ecstasy to class B, has just told reporters:

I am very clear...that we should not be changing classifications, we should be keeping them where we are, yes, on drugs, but also on alcohol.

On your bike, Tony

2009-10-29T15:27:30Z

Tony Blair's ascension to the position of President of the European Council has just dominated a Brussels press conference held by Gordon Brown and David Miliband.

Mr Brown thinks his old rival would be an "excellent" President, if he wants it when the laborious process of ratifying the Lisbon Treaty finally comes to an end.

Mr Miliband didn't repeat the pro-Blair reasoning he offered on the Andrew Marr show on Sunday, when the Foreign Secretary said: "We need someone who, when he or she lands in Beijing or Washington or Moscow, the traffic does need to stop."

This line of argument hasn't impressed Dai Davies, the independent MP for Blaenau Gwent. Mr Davies has tabled an early-day motion, pointing out that in an age where climate change is meant to be the number one international issue, the last thing we should want is more motorcades.

Mr Davies' motion "calls on Ministers of her Majesty's Government to keep focused on strategies to combat climate change, and to avoid advocacy of unnecessarily extravagant modes of official transport while carrying out their official responsibilities".

What's occurring, Peter?

2009-10-29T10:56:49Z

Peter Hain defending a devolution settlement that he himself devised might not strike most readers as particularly noteworthy.

In a speech in Cardiff tonight, the Welsh Secretary will say that Legislative Competence Orders (LCO), plus fill-in-the-gaps clauses for Wales in Westminster bills, are giving the Assembly significant amounts of new law-making clout.

The real problem, Mr Hain says, is that the chattering classes (I guess that includes me, and her, and him and probably him too) won't admit it, and prefer to keep the good news secret.

Well, OK - it's the kind of thing you'd expect the architect of the system to feel a couple of years down the line. But, as Nessa Jenkins would put it, Pete - where to are you going with this?

It is, of course, all about the context. With Sir Emyr Jones Parry's Convention likely to report next month that the Welsh public are quite keen on a referendum on a Scottish-style parliament, there aren't many barriers in the way of an era-defining plebiscite. A referendum is, after all, meant to be held by 2011 as part of the Labour-Plaid coalition deal in Cardiff Bay.

Mr Hain's passionate advocacy of the LCO system isn't just the doting of a proud father - it's his way of saying we don't need a referendum.

The political manoeuvrings are starting to get complicated. What if the Conservatives in Cardiff Bay table a motion, post-Sir Emyr, calling for a referendum - and David Cameron indicates he, as Prime Minister, would allow smooth passage for the referendum order through parliament?

Would we then see pro-devolution Labour MPs like Mr Hain arguing against a referendum because they fear it could be lost, while the traditionally devo-sceptic Conservatives argue for a poll because they want to win it and be seen to be pulling the strings?

And splits in the two largest parties would soon become apparent - Mr Hain knows the majority of Welsh Labour MPs are less keen on more powers for the Assembly than he is, and view a referendum as a distraction. The Conservatives are rubbing their hands in anticipation of a block of eight to 10 Welsh MPs after the next election - are they going to hand powers to their counterparts in Cardiff Bay without a murmur?

Pressure will also be on Plaid Cymru after Sir Emyr delivers his report - they will have to deliver a referendum, or their supporters will demand withdrawal from the coalition.

In that context, Mr Hain's Cardiff speech might get a few (very private) murmurs of approval from some surprising quarters.

More bad news for Welsh Labour

2009-10-27T10:16:54Z

Today's YouGov poll of voting intentions picks up where the European election results left off - bad, bad news for Labour with the Conservatives and, to a lesser extent, Plaid Cymru being the beneficiaries.

The results put Labour on 34%, the Conservatives on 31%, Plaid Cymru on 15% and the Liberal Democrats on 12%. Perhaps worryingly in the light of recent events, 'others' are on 7%; one hopes that's Dai Davies, UKIP and the Greens rather than the BNP.

Translated into Westminster seats, the results would give Labour 20 seats - nine fewer than it has now and only half the total - the Conservatives 12, Plaid five and the Lib Dems just two.

Of course, there are flaws in that calculation - it is based on a uniform swing across Wales, something that takes no account of local issues, the incumbency factor or how bad the constituency MP's expenses were.

Nevertheless, this is more bad news for Welsh Labour, a party that has had more wake-up calls than a travelling salesman. One of the political stories of the decade is Welsh Labour's failure to adapt to the new multi-party politics, and the social changes (patchy prosperity, in-migration) that underpin it.

Faced with voters uninterested in the party's past glories and alert to its lack of a narrative about how 21st century Wales should look, Labour is facing meltdown if it doesn't pull its collective finger out.

The party sometimes behaves as if the public will eventually come to their senses and return to the fold - something that shows little sign of happening. Labour needs to accept it won't win massive majorities in Wales anymore, and accept it needs to compete for votes, rather than just wait for them to roll in; sounds obvious, but the party doesn't often give the impression that it's grasped that.

The current leadership contest should be a way of airing these failings and proposing some solutions. Bashing your rivals is a necessary evil in such campaigns, but perhaps the YouGov poll will help concentrate the minds a little.

Lembit who?

2009-10-26T15:41:24Z

Even the most obsessive of political anoraks would struggle to name all 645* MPs; plenty are so anonymous that you wonder if they're a figment of the voters' collective imagination.

So it's hardly a surprise that the Hansard website, which records everything said in parliament, has accidently left out one MP from its useful 'search by member' facility.

But you'd think the name "Lembit Opik" would ring a few bells with the Hansard team - don't they read the Daily Sport?

The Montgomeryshire MP says: "I'm both appalled and amazed by this and will bring it to the attention of the House authorities. I would look to raise it in the Commons as a point of order but presumably that will be pretty difficult if I don't exist."

*There are 646 seats in total but Glasgow North East is vacant - by-election next month.