Wall and Broad

SP500 Weekly Analysis w/e Apr 6th

2007-04-07T03:11:00.000-04:00

o 1st time frame up trend.

o The market closed with the bulls keen, in control and committed.

o Range expansion shows that the bulls are eager.

o Close-by resistance at the highs of the previous two weeks was taken out. Watch resistance at the previous swing high at 1461.

o Triple MAs have changed to BULLISH.

o MACD histogram remains ST BULLISH.

o ST volatility achieved a cyclical peak a few weeks ago and is trending down from the OB zone. This is reflected in the large area of consolidation following the previous swing high and the subsequent pullback.

o Volume came off last week – bulls lack commitment.

o 79% of socks are above their 4 week MA but watch for a bearish cross below 70% – ST BULLISH.

SP500 Daily Analysis for Apr 3rd

2007-04-03T21:36:00.000-04:00

o New 1st time frame up trend.

o The market closed with the bulls keen, in control and committed.
o Nice range expansion suggests that buyers are eager.
o The market has, once again, been halted at the top of the important band of resistance, marked as the two light blue lines. Watch the resistance area, marked in yellow, if this area is breached. If there is downside rejection from the resistance area, the strong support/resistance marked in orange should be watched.
o Triple MAs are BULLISH.
o MACD histogram remains ST bullish.
o ST volatility has achieved a cyclical trough and should beging to trend up but may be temporarily halted at the resistance area marked in light blue. If this area is taken out tomorrow, we will see good trending action, possibly approaching the yellow-marked resistance area on the price chart.

o Volume failed to appreciate significantly suggesting that there is little commitment from the bulls to yesterday's move.

Dow30 Stocks performance quarter ending Mar 31st

2007-04-01T22:56:00.000-04:00

S&P500 Daily Analysis Mar 27th

2007-03-28T04:08:00.000-04:00

S&P500 Daily Analysis Mar 26th

2007-03-26T22:43:00.000-04:00

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SP500 Weekly Analysis w/e Mar 23rd 2007

2007-03-24T01:45:00.000-04:00

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o New 1st time frame up trend.

o The market closed with the bulls keen, in control and committed.

o Range expansion shows that the bulls are eager.

o There was upside price rejection from the strong support around the previous resistance area, marked in brown. Watch the previous swing high as resistance.

o Triple MAs remain NEUTRAL.

o MACD histogram has changed to ST BULLISH.

o ST volatility has achieved a cyclical peak and has crossed below the OB zone. Expect either consolidation or an attempt at the previous swing high.

o Volume came off last week – oerhaps the bulls lack some commitment

o 88% of socks are above their 4 week MA but watch for a bearish cross below 70% – ST BULLISH.

SP500 Daily Analysis for Mar 22nd

2007-03-23T00:30:00.000-04:00

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- 1st time frame up trend intact.
- Borderline inside day denotes indecision in the market.
- Large range contraction suggests that buyers are not as eager as they were yesterday.
- Japanese candlestick Tweezers Top reversal pattern - look for a new 1st time frame down trend.
- Over the last two days the markets's advance has been halted at an important band of resistance, marked as the two light blue lines. Watch the resistance area, marked in yellow, if this area is breached. If there is downside rejection from the resistance area, the strong support/resistance marked in orange should be watched.
- Triple MAs are NEUTRAL.
- MACD histogram has turned ST bearish.
- ST volatility has been trending up and there is every possibility that it will continue up to the resistance area marked in orange. If this happens we should see a continuation of the previous trending price action.

Weekly Sector Strength w/e Mar 16th

2007-03-19T01:02:00.000-04:00

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S&P500 Daily Analysis for Mar 14th

2007-03-14T20:28:00.000-04:00

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1st time frame down trend intact.
The market closed with the bulls keen, in control and committed. The bears lost control throughout the day and didn't have the commitment to close the market near the lows.
There was strong price rejection from the support area, marked in brown on the chart. Another strong level, having acted as supported on two previous occasions. Watch the important resistance area, marked in orange, if the market comes trades up again.
Triple MAs are BEARISH.
MACD histogram is ST bullish.
ST volatility is at the resistance area, marked in light blue. If this holds we will see more consolidation. If the level is broken we will see this market begin trending again.

S&P500 Daily Analysis for Mar 12th

2007-03-12T20:53:00.000-04:00

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1st time frame up trend intact. The market closed with the bulls moderately keen, having modest control and showing some level of commitment.
Inside day denotes indecision - serves as a warning for the current up swing.
The market has had some difficulty taking out the resistance area, marked in orange on the chart. This is quite a strong level - it has previously acted as resistance, then support and now resistance again. Watch the support area, marked in brown, if the market comes off again.
Triple MAs are NEUTRAL.
MACD histogram is ST bullish.
ST volatility is approaching a support level, marked in yellow. If the support holds we could see consolidation or the market come off slightly.
Volume has come off as price action was in an up swing - volume divergence - something of a warning signal.

SP500 Weekly Analysis w/e Mar 9th 2007

2007-03-10T23:50:00.000-05:00

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21% (8% prev) of stocks closed above their 4 week MA – ST NEUTRAL.

67% (63% prev) of stocks closed above their 30 week MA - MT BEARISH.

75 (71% prev) of stocks closed above their 52 week MA - LT BULLISH.

o 1st time frame down trend intact.

o The market closed with the bulls moderately keen and committed, and showing some amount of control.

o Range contraction shows that the bears aren’t as eager as the previous week.

o There was good support around the previous resistance area, marked in brown. This area should be watched closely next week.

o Triple MAs remain NEUTRAL.

o MACD histogram has changed to ST BULLISH.

o Momentum in ST volatility should achieve a cyclical peak very soon. Expect either consolidation or a moderate upside retracement of the current down swing.

o Volume came off last week - nothing unusual

o 21% of socks are above their 4 week MA but watch for a bullish cross below 30% – ST NEUTRAL.

SP500 Daily Analysis for Mar 5th

2007-03-05T17:50:00.000-05:00

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1st time frame down trend intact. The market closed with the bears keen, in control and committed.
Range contraction signifies that the bears have lost some eagerness.
The market closed at an important support area, marked in brown. Will it hold ? If this area is taken out, we could see the market trade down to the next support area around 1361, marked in dark blue.
Triple MAs are BEARISH.
MACD histogram is ST bearish and w have a divergence - ST bearish.
ST volatility has achieved a cyclical peak. There is a strong chance that the close by previous resistance may act as support. If that happens, and the support in price action holds, we could see a ST rally in price action.
Volume has come off with the current down swing - nothing unusual.

S&P500 Weekly Analysis for Feb 23rd 2007

2007-02-25T19:26:00.000-05:00

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Ticker	Date	Name	Close	BuyPrice	BoughtWeeksAgo	PctP/L
UIS	2/23/07	Unisys Corp	9.3	6.88	15	35.17
WY	2/23/07	Weyerhaeuser Co	82.25	66.68	11	23.35
ATI	2/23/07	Allegheny Technologies	107.81	91.56	5	17.75
RSH	2/23/07	Radioshack Corp	22.62	20.43	5	10.72
DD	2/23/07	Du Pont de Nemours & Company E.I.	52.99	48.05	7	10.28
AVP	2/23/07	Avon Products Inc	38.56	35.17	3	9.64
AA	2/23/07	Alcoa Inc	35.08	32.07	4	9.39
BNI	2/23/07	Burlington Nth Santa Fe	83.91	77.66	4	8.05
EMC	2/23/07	Emc Corp	14.49	13.61	7	6.47
ETR	2/23/07	Entergy Corp	100.95	95.13	3	6.12
AEP	2/23/07	American Electric Power	45.75	43.26	4	5.76
CI	2/23/07	Cigna Corp	143.89	137.99	2	4.28
MCD	2/23/07	Mcdonalds Corp	46.01	44.56	2	3.25
HON	2/23/07	Honeywell International	47.69	46.24	2	3.14
HET	2/23/07	Harrah's Entertainment	85.17	82.66	9	3.04
XRX	2/23/07	Xerox Corp	17.88	17.41	2	2.7
T	2/23/07	AT&T Inc	37	36.4	4	1.65
BAX	2/23/07	Baxter International Inc	49.81	49.75	2	0.12
DOW	2/23/07	Dow Chemical Co	43.45	43.44	1	0.02

Dow 30 stocks - Daily Outperforming and Underperforming for Feb 22nd

2007-02-22T21:01:00.000-05:00

ST BULLISH
AA, CAT, DD, HON, JPM, MCD, WMT

ST BEARISH
AXP, C, GE, HPQ, JNJ, KO, MO, MRK, PFE

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S&P500 Daily Analysis for Feb 21st

2007-02-21T17:53:00.000-05:00

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1st time frame down trend intact.
The market closed with the bears keener but the bears lost the control they had earlier in the day and lacked the commitment to close the market down near the lows.
Inside day signifies indecision in the market.
Japanese candlestick Hammer pattern alerts us to a potential ST reversal - need confirmation.
Over the last three days there has been strong upside price rejection from the previous resistance area, marked in lime green. This area will be very important over the next few days. Will it hold ? If this area is taken out, we could see the market trade down to the support area at 1431, marked in orange.
Triple MAs are bullish.
MACD histogram is ST bearish and w have a divergence - ST bearish.
ST volatility is at a very strong support area. We should see a cyclical trough in ST volatility very soon. This has repercussions for this market at the moment. The next market move will be quite strong. So, if the support is taken out we could see a move down to 1431. If it holds, a strong upside move to new highs is likely.
Triple divergence between price and volume. We like to see volume making new highs with price action new highs - not so over the last few weeks. You have to question the commitment of the bulls in making the recent highs.

S&P500 Weekly Analysis for Feb 16th 2007

2007-02-18T20:35:00.000-05:00

1st time frame up trend intact.

The market closed with the bulls keen, in control and committed.

Outside period suggests some indecision.

The previous resistance area, marked dark yellow, held as support again last week. This area may be re-tested again next week. Watch it closely again next week. The support area, marked dark red, should also be watched if the market breaks out to the down side.

Triple MAs remain BULLISH.

MACD histogram has changed to ST BULLISH.

Momentum in ST volatility has begun to pick up again and will approach an area of resistance again. The current up swing may develop further if this area is taken out.

Volume came off last week and is lower than on the previous upswing high – volume divergence – this fails to support further development of the current swing.

77% of socks are above their 4 week MA but watch for a bearish cross below 70% – ST BULLISH

S&P500 Daily Analysis for Feb 12th

2007-02-12T17:51:00.000-05:00

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1st time frame down trend..
The market closed with the bears keen and having moderate control but having lost some of the commitment they had earlier in the day.
Range has contracted significantly denoting a lack of eagerness from the bears.
The previous very strong resistance area, marked in orange, may now become an area of support. This area is very important to the short term future of this market. Watch the support areas marked in light pink and dark yellow if this area is breached to the downside.
Triple MAs are NEUTRAL.
MACD histogram is ST bearish.
ST volatility is very close to ST resistance, marked bright green.We could see the current down swing stall or even retrace somewhat if the area holds. If the resistance in volatility doesn't hold, then we would expect the support areas in price action to be approached fairly quickly.
Volume has come off with price action - nothing unusual here.

S&P500 Weekly Analysis for Feb 9th 2007

2007-02-11T00:39:00.000-05:00

1st time frame up trend intact.

The market closed with the bears keen, showing moderate control and some weak commitment.

The previous resistance area, marked dark yellow, has now held as support. This area is important. This area may be re-tested early next week, so watch it closely. The support area, marked dark red, should also be watched id the market breaks out to the down side.

Triple MAs remain BULLISH.

MACD histogram has changed to ST BEARISH and we also have a BEARISH DIVERGENCE.

ST volatility has lost momentum. It’s most likely, that we shall see ST consolidation if the support holds or a retracement.

Volume has come off and is lower than on the previous upswing high – volume divergence – this fails to support further development of the current swing.

65% of socks are above their 4 week MA and bearish cross below 70% – ST BEARISH.

Dow 30 stocks - Daily Outperforming and Underperforming for Jan 30th

2007-01-30T01:21:00.000-05:00

Ticker	Date	Name	Close	WEIGHTING	ST DMI	MT DMI	ST MACD Hist
AA	1/29/07	Alcoa Inc	31.8	OUTPERFORM	BULL	BULL	DOWN
AIG	1/29/07	American Internat Group	68.35	UNDERPERFORM	BEAR	BEAR	UP
AXP	1/29/07	American Express Co	57.64	UNDERPERFORM	BEAR	BEAR	DOWN
BA	1/29/07	Boeing Co	85.5	NEUTRAL	BEAR	BEAR	UP
C	1/29/07	Citigroup	54.06	NEUTRAL	BEAR	BULL	DOWN
CAT	1/29/07	Caterpillar Inc	61.7	OUTPERFORM	BULL	BULL	UP
DD	1/29/07	Du Pont de Nemours & Company E.I.	48.96	UNDERPERFORM	BEAR	BULL	DOWN
DIS	1/29/07	Walt Disney Co The	34.68	NEUTRAL	BEAR	BULL	UP
GE	1/29/07	General Electric Co	36.19	UNDERPERFORM	BEAR	BEAR	UP
GM	1/29/07	General Motors Corp	32.67	OUTPERFORM	BULL	BULL	DOWN
HD	1/29/07	Home Depot Inc	39.91	NEUTRAL	BEAR	BULL	DOWN
HON	1/29/07	Honeywell International	44.23	NEUTRAL	BEAR	BEAR	UP
HPQ	1/29/07	Hewlett-Packard Co	42.42	NEUTRAL	BULL	BULL	UP
IBM	1/29/07	International Business Machines Corp	98.54	NEUTRAL	BEAR	BULL	UP
INTC	1/29/07	Intel Corp	20.89	NEUTRAL	BULL	BULL	UP
JNJ	1/29/07	Johnson & Johnson	66.15	NEUTRAL	BEAR	BEAR	UP
JPM	1/29/07	JPMorgan Chase & Co	49.47	NEUTRAL	BULL	BULL	DOWN
KO	1/29/07	Coca-Cola Co	47.71	UNDERPERFORM	BEAR	BEAR	DOWN
MCD	1/29/07	Mcdonalds Corp	43.23	UNDERPERFORM	BEAR	BEAR	UP
MMM	1/29/07	3M Company	78.96	NEUTRAL	BEAR	BEAR	UP
MO	1/29/07	Altria Group Inc	88.06	NEUTRAL	BULL	BULL	UP
MRK	1/29/07	Merck & Co	45.51	OUTPERFORM	BULL	BULL	DOWN
MSFT	1/29/07	Microsoft Corp	30.53	NEUTRAL	BEAR	BULL	UP
PFE	1/29/07	Pfizer Inc	26.06	NEUTRAL	BEAR	BEAR	DOWN
PG	1/29/07	Procter & Gamble Co	64.88	NEUTRAL	BULL	BULL	UP
T	1/29/07	AT&T Inc	36.51	OUTPERFORM	BULL	BULL	DOWN
UTX	1/29/07	United Technologies Corp	65.69	OUTPERFORM	BULL	BULL	DOWN
VZ	1/29/07	Verizon Communications	38.03	OUTPERFORM	BULL	BULL	UP
WMT	1/29/07	Wal-Mart Stores Inc	47.63	NEUTRAL	BEAR	BULL	DOWN
XOM	1/29/07	Exxon Mobil Corporation	73.2	NEUTRAL	BEAR	BEAR	DOWN

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S&P500 WEEKLY Analysis for Jan 26th

2007-01-27T01:17:00.000-05:00

53% (64% prev) of stocks closed above their 4 week MA – ST BEARISH.
80% (84% prev) of stocks closed above their 30 week MA - MT NEUTRAL.
79% (79% prev) of stocks closed above their 52 week MA - LT BULLISH.
1st time frame up trend intact but outside period denotes indecision.
The market closed with the bears keen, showing moderate control but losing commitment following a significant loss of commitment from the bulls earlier in the week.
The resistance area, marked dark yellow, was tested for the seventh week in succession. This area is extremely important. Market action could potentially explode if this area is broken to the upside. Once again, this area and the support area, marked dark red, should be watched next week.
Triple MAs remain BULLISH.
MACD histogram has changed to ST BEARISH.
ST volatility has lost momentum, as suggested last week. The close-by resistance in ST volatility held. There is a possibility that volatility could stall for a short period. If that is the case, we could see ST consolidation or a re-test of the support area.
Volume was slightly greater than on the previous upswing high – no volume divergence.
53% of socks are above their 4 week MA – ST BEARISH.

S&P100 Weekly Portfolio w/e Jan 26th

2007-01-27T01:12:00.000-05:00

This week's new entries are in the current issue of the weekly newsletter.
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*Ticker*	*Date*	*Name*	*Close*	*Buy Price*	*Bought Weeks Ago*	*PctP/L*
CMCSA	1/26/07	Comcast Corp Cl A	43.3	35.12	18	23.29
UIS	1/26/07	Unisys Corp	8.24	6.88	11	19.77
WY	1/26/07	Weyerhaeuser Co	75.15	66.68	7	12.7
ATI	1/26/07	Allegheny Technologies	100.51	91.56	1	9.78
GS	1/26/07	Goldman Sachs Group Inc	213.5	199.05	3	7.26
MS	1/26/07	Morgan Stanley	82.12	78.61	7	4.47
DIS	1/26/07	Walt Disney Co The	34.55	33.09	8	4.41
HET	1/26/07	Harrah's Entertainment	85.54	82.66	5	3.48
MSFT	1/26/07	Microsoft Corp	30.6	29.64	3	3.24
MER	1/26/07	Merrill Lynch & Co	94.53	92	3	2.75
HPQ	1/26/07	Hewlett-Packard Co	41.69	40.63	5	2.61
CCU	1/26/07	Clear Channel Comm Inc	37.1	36.19	2	2.51
HD	1/26/07	Home Depot Inc	39.94	38.97	8	2.49
DD	1/26/07	Du Pont de Nemours & Company E.I.	49.19	48.05	3	2.37
IBM	1/26/07	International Business Machines Corp	97.45	95.3	6	2.26
EMC	1/26/07	Emc Corp	13.74	13.61	3	0.96
MRK	1/26/07	Merck & Co	45.99	45.6	1	0.86

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Dow 30 stocks - Daily Outperforming and Underperforming for Jan 24th

2007-01-24T18:30:00.000-05:00

ST BULLISH
AA, GM, HD, JPM, T, UTX, VZ, WMT

ST BEARISH
AIG, AXP, BA, CAT, GE, HON, KO

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S&P500 Daily Analysis for Jan 24th

2007-01-24T18:03:00.000-05:00

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1st time frame up trend.
Japanese candlestick White Marubozu pattern - denotes a very bullish market.
The market closed with the bulls keen, strongly in control and committed.
Nice range extension signifies eagerness of bulls.
The resistance area, marked in orange, which had been tested on at least eight previous occasions, was convincingly taken out today - very bullish.
Triple MAs are BULLISH.
MACD histogram is ST bullish.
ST volatility is very close to ST resistance, marked bright green. Even though it's a minor level, we could see the current strong up swing stall briefly. There was a lot of effort exerted in taking out the strong resistance, so a brief pause would not surprise. This could go either way. In the end though, it would be a brief pause because the dominant cycle in ST volatility will soon re-establish itself.
Volume increased slightly as the market made new swing highs, supporting the current up swing. Noticeably, there is now a possible setup for a volume divergence.

Dow 30 stocks - Daily Outperforming and Underperforming for Jan 23rd

2007-01-23T19:53:00.000-05:00

ST BULLISH
AA, DIS, GM, HD, JPM, MCD, MRK, PG, T, UTX, VZ

ST BEARISH
AIG, AXP, BA, C, GE, HON, INTC, KO

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S&P500 WEEKLY Analysis for Jan 19th

2007-01-20T02:29:00.000-05:00

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1st time frame up trend intact.
Japanese candlestick doji denotes indecisiveness.
The market closed with neither the bulls nor bears keen, in control or committed.
The resistance area, marked dark yellow, has been tested for the for the sixth week in succession. This area is extremely important. Market action could potentially explode if this area is broken to the upside. This area and the support area, marked dark red, should be watched next week.
Triple MAs remain BULLISH.
MACD histogram remains ST BULLISH.
ST volatility continues to build momentum. There is close-by resistance in ST volatility. There is a possibility that volatility could stall for a short period. An upside break of resistance in volatility, combined with and upside break of resistance in price action, would be significant.
The market has taken out the ST trend line – signifies a ST loss of momentum.
Volume has come off as the 1st time frame up trend continued – not bullish.
64% of socks are above their 4 week MA – BULLISH.